An NBA Scandal, the WembyCorn, a Three-Day Power Poll, and NFL Week 8 Picks With Joe House

22:31Bill Simmons:So, yeah, is there any other fixes you would do for? You can just, you know, the prop pool, you know, tightening it up a little bit makes sense to me. Okay. Well, we're going to come back with Albanian Bruce, Black Rob, and Pookie. No, no. I want to do some PowerPulse stuff with you on NBA. And by the way, we'll keep talking about the gambling. I really want... There'll be a lot more information that comes to life, right? Yeah, we don't have enough info yet. I wanted to talk about it, but I also feel like the story is going to evolve and move. Like, to me, people are saying this is the biggest issue the NBA has right now.

23:08Bill Simmons:I completely disagree. I really do. I think the biggest issue they have is the schedule. And I still can't believe that Houston OKC game I watched on Tuesday night and how hard those motherfuckers played. Incredible. And they have to do that 81 more times plus playoffs. and Ahmed Thompson, who's probably one of the five best athletes in the league and is young and should be able to go all day and he's about to keel over. They have to pull him out because he's getting cramps. And if you watch the game, how crazy he was playing back and forth, I'm much more concerned about how much speed, mileage, how much these guys run, the studies teams are doing about how much they run, how much sprinting they're doing during games.

23:51Bill Simmons:It's not sustainable. It's not. And I think that's a bigger issue for the league. That's the concern I had watching that Wemby game last night. Like, we only should get one of those every two weeks, maybe even only once a month, where he goes to that level with that level of intensity. Like, when they were up by double digits with seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, and he was still playing, I'm like, get Wemby off the court! Get that man! Let that man rest! He's done enough! right and he only played 29 minutes but they were hard 29 minutes but incredible so yeah listen they have to figure out all the gambling stuff my my thing with the nba is they sober is a smart dude they had a lot of smart people looking at this and i think they knew it was going to be rocky for a couple years and there are going to be a couple sacrificial lamps and they're going to be as barkley said on inside the nba today which i've really enjoyed on espn they've not fucked with the show i got to give them credit to that it feels like the exact same show on a different channel.

24:53Bill Simmons:But Barkley, they were arguing about whether this is like a gambling problem or whatever. And Barkley's like, these people are just stupid. He's right. This is a stupid problem. He is right. I agree with. So how do we regulate the stupid? It's going to be a work in progress. Well, it's self-executing. I mean, you know, if guys want to self-sabotage, there's plenty of attorney whatever ready to take them and put them in shackles. And Kash Patel.

25:25Bill Simmons:we'll take a quick break and then we'll do the power pull. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents. Managing your money works the same way. You've ever thought, am I getting the most out of my financial plan? You're ready for Mariner. With Mariner, you get an advisor backed by a full team of specialists. So everything's working together toward your goals. Take the next step in your financial journey with Mariner. Investment advisory services offered through Mariner LLC. an SEC-registered investment advisor. For more information, visit mariner.com.

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26:41Bill Simmons:Multiple entry periods. Visit www.micleobUltra.com slash Superior Access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry entry deadlines. prizes and details. All right, coming back, PowerPoll. I watched both games Tuesday. I watched six straight hours of hoops on Wednesday. I had the three TVs going, which you've seen, plus my iPad. I had four going at once. I was just trying to soak in as much as I possibly get. House, we're getting old. I have to retrain myself how to watch four basketball games at once. I really was having, struggled with it. But what was interesting was, and plus my daughter was playing yesterday too.

27:19Bill Simmons:So I had that. Then that ended. But the heart wants what the heart wants and my eyes kept drifting towards Charlotte. Oh, yeah. It's just a delight. Just a delightful league pass team. I really enjoyed them. I took a spin through lead pass. I had two. I only had two. I can handle two at one time. Yeah, yeah, I know. Two screens at once. The Charlotte game, I did not land on that one. That was not, it was like shit. I don't need to see Brooklyn. That really was the decision for me. I'm interested in Charlotte, but I don't need to see Brooklyn. I want to rip through a quick power poll, just a little snapshot.

27:58Bill Simmons:There's some overreactions in here, but just after two days, and there's games going on right now. As we're talking, Indiana's playing OKC. Later tonight, Denver's playing Golden State. All right. Favorite's still OKC. Contenders. so initially I had Denver, Knicks Cavs, Minnesota and the Clippers as the contenders I'm replacing the Clippers with Houston that was the big ad for me after watching that game which I talked about already on Tuesday but the size and what we saw from Shingun and Ahmed Thompson what the potential is of KD when they figure out how to use him I think we did the over-unders with Zach what, two weeks ago?

28:40Bill Simmons:Yes and I went under and I regret it because the ceiling of that team, I think, is a little higher than maybe I gave it credit for. What did you think? I went under as well, but I know that's not what you're asking. But the reason is because they do still yet need some guard play. They do still yet need some perimeter scoring. Like Dylan Brooks, whatever the limitations are, that dude shot nearly 40 % from three for them last year. Jalen Green, whatever the limitations are, could create a shot under the right circumstances. They don't really... Alman Thompson could end up being that guy. But man...

29:21Bill Simmons:There's a lot of one-on-one, though. There's a lot of clear out, somebody beating somebody up the dribble or somebody posting up on a side. And not a lot of easy stuff. Over the course of all the number of games that they have to play, that limitation will kind of reveal itself to be a vulnerability. That's a badass basketball team. Let there be no doubt. I mean, I really liked, I think I forgot to mention this Tuesday night. I really liked how Jabari looked. It was somebody I've always liked. I've kept all my stock. I thought he had some good moments for them. I feel like it was the most confident version of Jabari we've seen maybe in his entire career.

29:55He knew who he was supposed to be on the floor with that team. And he's like, I'm here for it.

30:00Bill Simmons:I thought he was very good. Yeah, so they have to be in there because if Schengen and Thompson, I had them in the high 20s when we did Ringer 100. but if they're moving up toward the low 20s or maybe even the teens, combined with KD, combined with some of their depth, it might be enough to overcome all the other stuff. I went on Eddie and Termini's show yesterday. Awesome. And we were talking about this Reed Shepard thing, which you had the Brent Price joke that I give you credit for on Tuesday. He's not Mark Price, he's Brent Price. We'll see how it goes with Rich Guy Reed. But Rich Kid Reed, that was what a friend of mine who saw him at Summer League said he was like a rich kid in an AAU tournament, which I thought was funny.

30:38Bill Simmons:but we were talking to Eddie Johnson we were talking about the Matt Maloney season Eddie was on that team that Barkley, Drexler, Hakeem they make the I think western finals against Utah and it came down to Stockton versus Matt Maloney and Matt Maloney who they kind of like duct taped as a starter and been able and he could make a couple threes and he was okay he was an Ivy Leaguer kudos to him for making it in the league but then it got to John Stockton time and he got worked like a speed bag and it cost them a playoff series. Right. So the question for me with Houston is, are they going to leave that door open for a Matt Maloney situation and do what you've been saying for a month?

31:18Bill Simmons:Go trade for a fucking point guard. Yeah. They have time. I think they'll get a guard. I do think they're going to do it. I'm sure they're monitoring. I mean, Derek White was incredible yesterday. So if they want a godfather off for Derek White, if the Celtics are going to keep having exciting games and then losing with a minute left. Wow, you just said that out loud. I don't want to trade Derek White. Why did you put him in this conversation? Because I think if Houston got a real guard, I think they could actually win the title. Derek White is better than a real guard. Derek White is fucking good.

31:49They have all these asses in this war chest.

31:52Bill Simmons:Yeah, Lord have mercy. I'm not the first one who said that. That's Derek White's floater drum. All right. All right, so Denver, Knicks, Cavs, Minnesota, Houston. Only other thing I noticed last night, Ant... And especially down the stretch, see a little comeback win for the Timberwolves. And... Beat Chauncey. He sent Chauncey packing, literally. There was a little, don't forget about me, in that game, where it's like all these teams, these new guys on the new teams, it's Wemby, Cooper Flag, the West, Minnesota. We talked about how they had, I think, the six best odds in the West, and people were discounting them in general.

32:34Bill Simmons:know, but there was a there was a fuck you energy that he had in that game. He needed it because they had to outscore the Trailblazers 30 to 19 in the fourth quarter to win the goddamn game. They were just, you know, sort of cruising along. It was like, dude, this is game one. Don't just show up and think that the Trailblazers is going to roll over. Jeremy Grant ain't here to just roll over for you. I mean, we had a classic Jeremy Grant game last night. Black Tony's texting Chauncey at halftime. Shots is like, not now. Don't let me send Pookie down there.

33:09Bill Simmons:Denver is about to play. We haven't even seen them yet with their beautiful bench. I did see Mike Malone on Inside the NBA today. I think it's Michael. Michael Malone. Michael. Bemoaning that they didn't have a bench when he coached the team. And then Cavs. I don't want to hear a Cavs conversation until Garland is back and healthy. Let's see him healthy and playing well for two weeks. That feels fair. That feels fair. So, OKC, then Denver, Knicks, Cavs, Minnesota, Houston. Next group, two teams, possible contenders, Orlando and Golden State. And we'll see Golden State tonight. I liked how Golden State took care of business in the Los Angeles game.

33:45Bill Simmons:Me too. How Kaminga, they're basically the words Sean Marion have been thrown around for what Kerr wants from them this year. No, listen. Just run the floor, defense, rebounding, athleticism. Just do that for us. As a concept, yes. It's a contract. Okay, it's a concept. Just be Sean Marion for us. We want to describe a concept, and we're going to use the word, the name Sean Marion to describe the concept. Not the player Sean Marion. Not the player. Just conceptually do a Sean Marion impersonation. Okay. You know, the Horford thing, I love Big Al, one of the most popular Celtics of all time. I did kind of hit fuck you mode watching him in a Warriors uniform.

34:29Bill Simmons:him. Why? Well, he left twice. He left Boston the first time he signed with Philly. Yeah. Came back. We won the title with him. And then he's like, now I'm going to go chase a title with Golden State. Well, he already won a title, but for a little more money, he's made a lot. Yeah, I wouldn't say he's chasing a title. He had a good place to go to get another contract. What's wrong with that? We loved him in Boston. Well, Boston would have given him a contract. Listen, I'm not saying it's rational. I just got spiteful watching. I was like, fuck you. So unlike you. How dare you're on Golden State?

35:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, it hurt my feelings. I didn't think it was going to hurt my feelings, but it did. He should have retired with the Celtics. And as usual. He can still do that. As usual, there's no loyalty in sports. I don't know why I care. He can still do that with the additional$25 million in his pocket. Or whatever it was. But Golden State, possible contenders, but could see them moving up a notch. Sure. I like the vibe with them. And they very comfortably kicked the Lakers ass. It was really professional. It was very orderly. They're like, okay, this is fine. Good job. Pat him on the head. And then Orlando, who let Miami hang around for a while last night and then took care of business down the stretch.

35:40Bill Simmons:But, you know, newsflash, Desmond Bain's good at basketball. He's a top 40 to 45 player, and they added him and gave up nothing. They just gave up future assets that weren't going to help them this year. So Orlando, maybe. If I'm an Orlando fan, and I went slight under on them. Did you go under on them? Yes. It was like 50 and a half? Yes. Yes. Just, you know, 49 wins is still fine. I wonder, do you think 51, 52 wins could win the East if Cleveland continues to just have guys bouncing in and out and not ever being 100 % healthy? No, because the Knicks... You think it's higher? Well, one of my locks was the Knicks over 53 and a half, I think.

36:18Okay. Yeah, so...

36:18Bill Simmons:So what's the number? What's the number for the winning record in the East? 57 or 58 to me. Okay. Yeah. And I think the Knicks... Orlando's not getting there. But I want to watch them a little more carefully. See how... Suggs didn't play a ton of minutes in that first game. I think a month from now. We all bet over on Cleveland, by the way. Me, you, and Zach. I think we were in agreement. I'm aware. And the number was 56 and a half, I think, for Cleveland, wasn't it? I'm not worried. Okay. Just saying. When they're all healthy... You ask me what number wins the East. It's got to be north of 56 and a half.

36:51That's all I'm saying.

36:52Bill Simmons:I hope so. Okay. I'm just, I'm trying to figure out a path for Orlando to be a one seed. And I think the win number would have to be way lower. Next category, the sleeper, San Antonio. So look, this is what happens with the NBA. Everybody goes nuts when we're all watching something at the same time. And people throw the word insane around because insane is the most used word in probably sports watching. And it was insane. I would argue it was actually underrated how insane it was. I was in awe. To me, this was like Tiger that first year in 97, just demolishing golf courses. And we're like, what's going on?

37:36Bill Simmons:Him doing that to Dallas, not just Davis, but you have Lively there, you have Flag, you have this good defensive identity. and he completely eviscerated them in a way that we talked about in the over-under pod. I was all in on San Antonio being much better this year. You did, you did. And I really thought he had a chance. I thought him at 12 to one to an MVP was probably the best value odds. And who knows if he can even play 65 games. But what he did in that game was one of the most frightening things I've seen on a basketball court. And I can't even think of that many other examples. This is, that's the problem with it.

38:17It is so rare now for us as sports fans to see an athlete that I'll just, you know, put it in a dumb way, takes our breath away. That doesn't really even begin to tell the story. Like, I can't believe my, my eyes are seeing something that I don't think I've seen before that like that a hundred percent. I can't compare him to anybody. For all of the years we've been watching basketball,

38:46Bill Simmons:I can't compare him to anybody. No, it'd be like if there was a seven-foot wide receiver who was basically like a seven-foot Randy Moss, and they were just throwing 50-yard passes to him, and he would just jump up and catch them. And we were like, what's going on? How is this a human being? Yeah. The speed is incredible. I mean, what he did in terms of taking Anthony Davis out sort of north of the circle, he starts shaking one or the other. His crossover, he double crossovers, he hezzies, and then he's at the rim in a stride, and he just flushes the fuck out of it. What? What did I just see? in the three-point shooting.

39:34Bill Simmons:I loved, he was clearly realized he needs to be a little more around the rim. Yes. Yes. And newsflash, we've been telling you that for two years, but I'm glad he figured it out. And then defensively, it's always fun to see the new guy like flag. He's like, ah, this will be fine. I'll figure him out. And he had a couple moments where he was like, oh my God. I didn't realize. Listen, we talked about this in the overrunners pod. He just is moving better. He's more, I don't want to say more coordinated, but all the stuff he's done to work on his balance and his footwork, like you really see a difference.

40:09Bill Simmons:That first year he was falling over half the time. He's a child. He's still growing. He's like, he's not grown. He's still growing. Like he's still filling out physically. I was thinking there was one play he had, maybe it was when he did that through his legs 19 times, hit a three and got fouled. And then cut to the Spurs bench. and multiple guys were like this with their hands behind their head. And I was thinking like the Thomas Hill test. Yes. Of the later shot. Love this. They cut to him after. He's just like, oh my God. He's just like, I just in shock. And I think that's the rarest level an athlete can get to.

40:50Bill Simmons:When you're Thomas Hill testing, your teammates or people on the bench, they're just like, and these guys are just playing basketball every day. They've seen every incarnation of everything. They're playing with him. His teammates play with him. And they can't believe what they're seeing. Right. We haven't had a basketball player do that. I know. I was trying to think about. Curry, when he was breaking through, starting to make the threes, was I think the last one that gave people that feeling. Yeah, so the two that I was wondering about, and I'll go back and look because I am actually kind of intrigued by this intellectual exercise.

41:29young Shaq was mind-blowing. Orlando Shaq. Yeah, young Orlando, when he was like super skinny, when he started, it was like nobody can stop him. There's no way, the only way to, you know, you have to foul him. And by fouling, I mean grab him by the arm and hold it because you can't. But also the way he ran the floor,

41:47Bill Simmons:you and I both separately saw him in those first two years and we were just like, oh my God, what's that? Is this guy going to be the best player in the history of the league? But I don't. So Shaq's a good one. I don't think we ever felt that way with Giannis. I mean, Giannis was always, he jumps out at you, right? And because the physical specimen is incomparable, but it took a while for the basketball part to kind of come in. It was never 100 % like it was with the Wemby thing. It was like, whoa, this is really cool. But that was when we had that unicorn era with Porzingis and some of these other like, whoa, these guys, we haven't seen people like this.

42:30Bill Simmons:Wemby's beyond a unicorn. I mean, nobody's ever done that on a basketball court before. I was watching with my son who for the last like five, six years has been playing all the NBA 2K, all those games. And he had this player created when he was a kid called JJ McCutcheon. And the guy would have like be a 99 in every category, but he was also seven feet tall. And we would, and I would always be like, Ben, this isn't like somebody who would be a real player. It's like, yeah, but that's what makes him awesome. And we're watching. He's like, this is like J.J. McCutcheon. This is like the guy I created.

43:04Bill Simmons:But if the guy was actually a real person. The kid says that. Here's what I want. I'm going to ask. Can we talk to some old heads? I want to know what your dad thinks. How did he feel when he first saw Wilt? And did he get to see Wilt live ever? I do think Wilt and Russell were both like this. There's unquestionably all the other reports from back then. like Russell's defense and his, the way he ran the floor and could protect the rim. Nobody had just ever seen it. Yeah. And then we'll came in with some of the, you know, you can see some of it's on YouTube, some of his finger roll stuff and like his power and his power on the rim.

43:41Bill Simmons:It just didn't exist. Right. Right. So those are two good ones. Yeah. Kareem had the sky hook that in person, you really had to, it's just, it does. It was just different in person. Yeah. You just kind of could, you were like, how is anyone ever going to block that? Magic and Bird had the passing, obviously. Jordan had the athleticism. Dominique as an in-game dunker, I thought had a little of like... It's a nice nod. ...in person, but nothing like this. No, no, no, no, no. This was... And I will say LeBron in the late 2000s. Okay. His first two MVP seasons. Okay. And I remember writing about this once because I remember writing a piece about how he had arrived in like 09, but he had this play at a Clipper game where it felt like he just dunked two steps from midcourt and the speed he had, it was so fast.

44:32Bill Simmons:We were all, you could just kind of hear the arena buzzing after. It was so crazy athletic. We're like, oh my God. What was that? Athletic Carl Malone. Like hard to believe. That's the sheer size at that speed. So we just went through nine of the top 12 players in the history of the game. So there we go. Well, that was always the ceiling for him. I think what's interesting about this is, you know, and we've talked about this in the past, but this always happens earlier than we think. Like nobody thought Tiger was going to walk in and kill the Masters. You are right. And you are correct. And crush everybody.

45:07Bill Simmons:You are correct. Nobody thought LeBron was going to make the finals in 07. Sometimes this just happens earlier than you. Nobody thought Duncan was going to win the title in his second year. Maybe some people did. I don't remember. But it's always faster. Nobody thought OKC was going to be a contender, and all of a sudden they were. And I wonder with San Antonio, is this just going to happen fast now? Is this a supercharge where we should just start? If Wemby's going to be healthy all year, this is a top 17 period. And I don't know the answer. It's fascinating because we didn't really get a feel for what the role players, what the team around him looks like, how they're going to compete night in, night out.

45:52All we got was what really feels like a once in a lifetime performance. Like in one week, in a one week span, we got Shohei Otani with one of the top three best baseball games in the history of the sport. Yeah. You know, fine. If you want to call it number one, I'm not going to argue with you. And then we got this, this, this game out of Wemby, a human specimen that is unlike any basketball player we've, we've seen with the kind of dominance that is unparalleled.

46:22Bill Simmons:And we got an x-ray table, illegal poker game scandal. I mean, what a week for all of us on FanDuel Spurs over under is now up to minus. It's a 45 and a half now. Yeah. And I still think it's two full games or at least one full. It was 44 and a half. It was 43. Now it's 45. Okay. But I just find it hard to believe that's not a contender. Here's the other thing with them house. I loved how Cornette looked with them. Yeah. They have trade stuff if they want it. Sure. If they want to go really try to upgrade somebody. They didn't have Darren Fox in that game. I loved how Castle looked in that game.

47:04Bill Simmons:I thought. What a fit. I thought. I just felt like he went up a level and clearly. I liked how he had a couple of good alley-oops to Wemby. symbiosis. They are on the same page of them two. Unquestionably the sleeper this year. Next one, the Aspiration Gang, the Clippers. So move them down. They were so bad. I watched the first half of that Utah game. They were so bad that I don't even know what to make of it. Why did they do that? It has to be flagged. Why did they show up that way? What do you think the explanation is? One thing, we went over on them. We almost put them in our super boost. Because we needed them to get to 50 games, right?

47:42The total is 49 and a half. I know, but we didn't put them in the Superboost though. No, no, I mean, because you can't trust. They did a good job of building out their bench. I mean, I think the thesis for expecting them in the 48 to 52 win range is a sound thesis,

48:02Bill Simmons:but shit can go wrong. I do wonder about the personality though. And it's one game I want to watch them more and I especially want to see them in person. But if Kawhi, if Harden is in his own world, your guy Bradley Beal, who is like the come on guys, let's fucking go guy on that team? Chris Paul's too old. Isn't it Lopez? Should be Brooke Lopez. He's not doing that. They don't have the guy, is my point. So you're down 20 in Utah and the team's like, okay. Let me ask you this. I didn't like their body language at all. You think that was Will Hardy's Super Bowl? He's like, I just want everybody in the basketball world to know.

48:45To remember that I'm good at keeping. I just want you to see what I could do. Here's what, it's game one. The season's going to go the ways. I have some good players. Here's the stuff we're going to do. I could do this. We could, I could take these Utah white boys and get out here and run a basketball team this way. We're probably not going to do it all season long, but I just want you to see it.

49:06Bill Simmons:Well, I'll tell you this. Kessler jumped out of the TV. He was fucking awesome in that game. Remember when the Knicks were like, we're trying to get Kessler. It's like, cool. Kessler is good. We're not just giving him TV. He looked great, though. It's going to be... I guess their guards will be the key to them tanking Utah. Yes. But when you have Kessler and Markkinen, you're just going to hang around in some of these games. One of the lessons of watching all the games last night, the talent is so fucking deep. It's like outrageous. I just can't believe how many good players there are. Like even Charlotte, my beloved league past Charlotte team.

49:46Bill Simmons:There's something Colin Sexton is just on the side, just coming in. Like that guy in the mid 2000s would have started on playoff teams. This is a nice observation you're making because I wanted to give out a handful of fuck yous. Hey, Atlanta Hawks, fuck you. Like here's the thing, right? It's game one. It's time to show up. It's time to show out a little bit. LA Clippers. Here's a nice fuck you for you. Here it is. I'll put it on a platter. I mean, the teams that showed up like, oh, we're just going to kind of roll through. I was impressed. The Heat. No fuck you for the Heat. Good job, Heat. Heat competed, right?

50:28No hero. Yeah, they did. Norm Powell was up for it.

50:30Bill Simmons:How about Davion Mitchell? Davion Mitchell. It seemed like that had flash in the pan possibilities. The Chargers just scored. It's 21 to 3. This might just be the podcast tonight. Good. I do have a nice fuck you for the Pistons as well. I just want to get one out for the Pistons. Well, I want to get to them in a second. So the Aspiration gang, the Clippers. By the way, I Googled Aspiration to see if there's a logo because I was going to do a joke and send it to you. Okay. And when you Google Aspiration, the first thing that comes up is how it's people that choke on their own vomit. And what? Oh, aspiration.

51:09Yes, the physical phenomena. Yes, right. Yeah, that is, I guess, I'm surprised that that comes up first, though.

51:15Bill Simmons:They named it charity after choking on your own vomit? Why was that the charity? No wonder it went under. That's such a great, great joke. It's a vomit choking charity. We missed this joke. I don't know. It took me forever. We've been going on for two months now. We missed this joke. It's amazing. Ballmer choked on his own vomit. $50 million. Uncle Dennis didn't choke. Uncle Dennis got all that cash. Next category. Now we're dropping off. This category is called Let's See in March. I got Dallas here and I got Milwaukee here. For different reasons. Dallas. I want to go on the record really emphatically.

51:53Bill Simmons:This flag playing point guard thing is fucking stupid. It's stupid. Stop, Jason Kidd. We know you got your extension. We know you lucked out with the lottery. We know you did this with Giannis in Milwaukee. But this is not the right way to bring in a kid who's not even 19 and who doesn't know what kind of basketball player he is yet, but he clearly is special. You're putting all this extra stuff on him that I think is ridiculous. I don't understand. As soon as Kyrie comes back, he's never playing point guard again. What is the point of this? Who's supposed to play point guard for them? Play D 'Angelo Russell and Nembhard.

52:30Bill Simmons:Like, who cares? Okay. It's October. Okay. What I don't want to do is have Flag dribbling the ball up against Castle and people like that. Like, that's crazy. You mean guys will just go take the ball from him? Yeah, he's not a point guard. He's 6 '8 1⁄2". He's played forward his whole life. I just, I hated it. And Anthony Davis. Yes. moving into a different phase of his career watch. Well, it's game one. I'm not on it yet, but I just... Didn't love the boss. Here's the thing, right? He's been in the league since 2012, and he's a big guy, and big guys don't usually age well. We want to see them play a team that doesn't have...

53:16I mean, we have to come up with some way to describe Wemiana that's not Unicorn. It's so superior to Unicorn. The most superior iteration of a unique being. He's just Wemby. How about just Wemby? Yes.

53:29Bill Simmons:He's a Wembycorn. He's a Wembycorn. Sure. Good. Let's see Dallas when they're not playing the Wembycorn. Because they're like them not having an answer for that. Maybe we can show them some grace. Who do they play tomorrow? They play... Oh, home against your Wizards. That's a great... Great. Great one. That'll clear out all the bad taste in our mouths. Yes. That sounds awesome. So anyway, I want to... I still think I like their players and their team. I'm still bullish on them. Milwaukee's the other one. Giannis looked like Giannis again. Porter got hurt during the game, but, you know, they beat a bad team.

54:08Bill Simmons:But I'm still bullish on Milwaukee as being a mid-tie 40s team. They are dedicated to... If they are dedicated to the bid, they came out and shot the three ball excellent. That's what they want to do. Right, because they were the best percentage-wise three-point shooting team in the league, but they were under-utilizing it volume-wise. Well, five of their first eight made baskets were threes. They won the basketball game in the first six minutes. Now, this might be a common theme when you play the Wizards, but they got up by 20. They were on pace. They were on pace for 200 points in that game.

54:45They had 25 points in the first six minutes because they just were, you know, the ball moved beautifully. Those guys knew exactly where they were going to be. And they have space.

54:55Bill Simmons:Yeah, they have space because of the shooters. They took care of A.J. Green. Yeah. And they dared Washington to rotate defensively and it didn't happen. They just knocked down threes. I like the concept theoretically of Giannis and shooting. Me too. And then Turner with Giannis defensively, I think is going to matter. And I still am in on that team. It all makes sense. Next group, flawed but interesting. I have five here, Lakers, Detroit, Toronto, Philly, and Atlanta. I was down on Detroit before the season. It was one of my underlocks. I think if I was a Detroit fan, what would disturb me is I'm playing Chicago, a team that's not going to make the playoffs, and if you knew nothing and you were just watching the game, you would think they were equal talent-wise, right?

55:40Bill Simmons:That's not a good sign for Detroit. My problem was the effort. Like, they have guys with the motor. Like, that's what Ron Holland is for. That's what Durin is for. Like, you're supposed to, the role guys are supposed to help, you know, the starters. I don't, are they discombobulated because Ivy is out again? Like, what's the explanation? Ivy's out. I just don't think, with Ivy out, I just don't think from a talent standpoint, they're that special unless Cade goes up another level. So I just flawed, but interesting. I'm not ruling them out, ruling them in. But my instinct was that people were throwing them in this like East fringe contender conversation.

56:21Bill Simmons:I'm the opposite. I think they're closer to being a playing team. They had to outscore the Bulls by 11 in the fourth quarter to make it competitive on the stretch. Lakers, I did not have as one of my playoff teams. And I had them losing in the play-in. You gave them out as a play-in. Have them playing and have them losing in the playing. And the reason is because I don't think they're going to be able to guard anybody. And then you watched on opening night. Golden State should have won that game by 25. Sure. Could have. Multiple times, multiple ways they could have won that game by 25. And I know they didn't have LeBron, but LeBron is now in his 40s.

56:55Bill Simmons:And I don't think you can count on him in a real way for a regular season like you could have in even 2018. The Lakers aren't good enough. They don't have enough talent. That's all. And I don't necessarily even, I'm not positive they care about this season. I think it's more of a... Good point. Let's just take some chances. We have some expirings. Let's kind of see where we go. They extended JJ before the year, which I said to you and Zach two weeks ago I thought was interesting. It made it seem like, hey, no matter what happens, we believe in this infrastructure. I think they're one of the six or seven worst defensive teams in the league.

57:32How would you handicap the likelihood that sometime here in the next, I don't know, 30 days, maybe even less, that we get word that this is going to be LeBron's retirement tour.

57:46Bill Simmons:Are you asking me because you want to tell Damon Jones of Black Tony? Well, Damon Jones already knows. I need Damon Jones to tell me and Pookie. Me and Pookie need to know. I do not think LeBron is retiring. I think he's going to play until he's 45. I think LeBron and Aaron Rodgers are just going to keep going and going. Lakers, very suspicious I just don't think when you compare them to some of these teams in the West Like Houston and San Antonio Like Minnesota, these teams are young Go guy by guy, position by position They're not good enough They're not good enough We'll see, I've counted out the Lakers before in previous years And then all of a sudden they win eight in a row Luka would have to go on a fucking heater Remember, again Dorian Finney-Smith Really helped change the trajectory Of that team because they really found a defensive identity.

58:36It's crazy shit like that that can happen. Toronto looked great. That might have been one of my big misses.

58:45Bill Simmons:It was a Joe House lock. I don't remember whether or not Zach locked it. They looked really good. Listen, I'll admit defeat if that is a potential top seven team. I believe that it is. I thought they played hard. They were long. They're healthy right now. Who knows how long that's going to last, but they jumped out to me. Coach Darko played 11 guys. If they're going to play with that level of intensity and make sure that everybody gets the feels, gets the touches, they're going to be tough. You made fun of me when I said to you. Well, I did make fun of you. I did. The Oklahoma City, they want to try that kind of blueprint, which is get out in transition, try and force turnovers, try and be a defensive presence.

59:34And they won fast break points by like 20. And they had 86 points in the paint. In 138 points they scored, 86 of them were points in the paint because they kept going to the goddamn rim. Impressive. That's all. I'll stop.

59:49Bill Simmons:This was my overreaction game because Toronto kills Atlanta. And Toronto, I'm with you. What I liked about what I saw from Toronto, they clearly know what they want to be. And what they wanted to be was athletic and they want to push and they want to go and they want to go and they want to go. Now, I don't know if it was just because they were playing Atlanta or that's who they are, but there was an identity they had that I wasn't expecting. On the flip side, Atlanta, who was a team we were high on and then the over-under got too high and I think that scared all of us. It got to like 47 and a half.

1:00:24Bill Simmons:So this is one of those things where you can look at something on paper forever and then you have to actually see it on a basketball court. And I don't know, maybe I've seen too many games over the years, but I was immediately like, oh, no. Because they're not going to be able to rebound house. And forget about the transition defense and some of the other issues in that game. But you have Porzingis. They started Porzingis. He's 25 feet from the basket. You got Trey Young, you have Jalen Johnson, Daniels, some other shooter. There's no rebounder. And one of the things with Porzingis, when the Celtics would play him, like Tatum, Tatum was one of the best 20 rebounders in the league.

1:01:06Bill Simmons:The team was a gang rebounding team. I really was worried about Atlanta after watching them. And maybe it's going to take a while for the pieces to fit together, but it was a team that didn't make sense to me as I watched it. Did you see it? It did not make sense. And there are a couple of culprits. The rebounding is concerning. It could be Okongwu. That's his job. And Jalen Johnson got seven. And poor Zengis got seven. And, you know. They got dealt with on the boards, though. Here's the issue, man. Let me ask you. I'll put it to you in the form of a question. Who do you think took the most field goals last night?

1:01:49Do you already know the answer? I don't. Who was it? Nikhil Alexander-Walker took 15 fucking field goal attempts last night. He was two for 15 from the field. What in the fuck is going on in Atlanta? Like, seriously, you built this team and had an idea for who you're going to put out there. How is he taking the most shots on the team? How is that possible? In 26, 28 minutes, he took 15 field goal attempts. How? Why?

1:02:22Bill Simmons:How does that make any sense? I don't like it. I'm not writing them off, but my blink test watching them was like, I don't know. I don't know if these guys all make sense together. We'll see. But I definitely cooled on them a tiny bit. But they can win me back in the next week. And then Philly, I watched that entire game. I bet you did. It's really interesting because Embiid just looks like he's done. And who knows if Embiid can come back, but he can't really jump anymore. He can't, you know, every time they really did well was when he wasn't out there, including the fourth quarter. They just didn't bring him back because he was on a quote-unquote minutes limit.

1:03:05Bill Simmons:But the Maxi and Vijay together was just the most electric. The Vijay thing's unbelievable. The big thing on him coming out of the draft was this guy's an incredible athlete. He can't finish. He has terrible finishing stats. Let me tell you, he finished the fuck out of the Celtic game. He was finishing everything and he was competitive and he's got a swagger to him and him and Max are together. That's the future of that team. The Sixers fans should be over the moon about this. They're going to, you know, the Embiid thing, the extension, disaster. George, disaster. But all of it led to them getting the third pick in the draft and getting rejuvenated with this guy who looks like 2005 Dwayne Wade.

1:03:43Bill Simmons:I mean, it's stunning. It's stunning. We'll just leave it at that. Other than Wemby, it was the most stunning thing of the week. The confidence... He's game speed. He was there for all of it. The basketball IQ is off the effing charts. He moves when he doesn't have the ball. He's in the corner. He's my favorite kind of guy where he's still thinking of stuff to do, even if he's not involved in the play. It's like, oh, can I back cut? Oh, can I get an offensive rebound? Oh, can I come flying in for a jam? He's up to stuff all the time. How many phone calls do you think Daryl in the second half was making like, hey, we know that Paul George contract.

1:04:27We know that we have the extra year, but let's figure out a way. Like how many?

1:04:32Bill Simmons:Oh, I thought you were saying Daryl was calling his wife being like, I have good news. I'm going to be keeping my job for the next few years because BJ Edge comes fucking awesome. Well, that and also they need to get Paul George off that team away from this team as quickly as possible. I don't know how they're going to do that. It's a zero proposition. Zero sum. Also, we talked about leap guys when we did the over-unders. And I think I'd like to belatedly include Maxie in that combo. He deserves it. Oh, does he deserve it? He was downhill constantly. And I thought the Celtics, they didn't shoot well, but they played really hard.

1:05:16Bill Simmons:And the reason they lost was because they weren't making threes and then ironically Kata fouled out and Luka Garza was in concussion protocol so they had to play Xavier Tillman in the last two minutes of the game and he missed a big shot but the Vijay and Maxi thing attack, attack, attack, attack and Embiid just doesn't fit in with it so I don't know what they do. Just play him the 20 minutes. It's totally fine. He's a role player. He's going to be miserable. come in. Who cares? No. If he if they permit that to happen then we'll know for sure. Then we'll be having podcasts with Darryl. How about LeBron for Embiid right now?

1:06:03Oh, you paused. Well, the Lakers have to say no. No. No. He's a 20-minute player who should be able to get

1:06:15Bill Simmons:you a handful of rebounds. I like Embiid. I hope it comes back, but it doesn't seem like his right leg works anymore. I don't say this with any joy. This is end-of-career Greg Oden shit. This is what Greg Oden looked like after the last series of surgeries that he had, and he tried one last time to come back. That's what Embiid looks like to me. I hope he can come back. It'd be good. It's better for the league. It's bad for Philly that it's like we have to keep them out of the game if we want to win. Water Treaders, Boston, Memphis, Miami, and Indiana. We don't need to talk about them. League Pass All-Stars, next category.

1:06:52People in Memphis are going to be mad that we're just skipping over them.

1:06:56Bill Simmons:Well, they had 40 injuries already, and they won the first game just because John Moran was awesome. The guy plays 30 to 45 games a year. They handle their business at home against New Orleans, and New Orleans did jump out to a lead. I mean, you know. But look at the group, though. Boston, Memphis, Miami, Indiana. They're treading water waiting to see who they're going to be. They're in the same spot. I think that Memphis is fair. League Pass All-Stars, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Chicago. New Orleans, I think, Zion looked really good. And they have fun players in that team, and I just think they're going to be a fun team to watch.

1:07:27Bill Simmons:Chicago, same thing because of the pace. And then Charlotte was a revelation. I like Kalkbrenner. I'm just going on the record. Sure. I think he's a real NBA player. I agree with you. I think he's a 30-minute-a-game big guy. I agree. I made fun of it. And we went into the season going like, Charlotte doesn't have big guys. They're not going to be there. but they have multiple guards. It was against Brooklyn, to be fair, but yes. Well, they were playing a G League team. Yes, they were. But they have semi-competent big guys and then Knipple, and I just like them. Next category, wait, where's our coach?

1:07:58Bill Simmons:That's Portland. The next category is why are we here? Phoenix and Sacramento. What a battle that was. Don't show disrespect to Phoenix. This is going to be an ongoing theme. I honestly kind of like directionally what Phoenix, this is at least a team that, that makes a little bit of sense. More sense than last year. Makes more sense than last year. And I honestly think the good people of Phoenix deserve after that hot turd, they were served for an entire season last year of unmet expectations and guys that didn't like playing with each other. I think this team does like play. I like what I'm seeing out of them thus far.

1:08:36One game in, I'll just leave it at that.

1:08:38Bill Simmons:Well, I have them as either the fourth or fifth worst basketball team in the league. That's fine. And the other team that they were battling with was Sacramento, who that game came down at the last minute. It did. Last category is dumping for Darren, Utah, Washington, and Brooklyn. Utah's the best of the three. Darren is the Darren Peterson on Kansas. What do you think, if Utah really tried, how many games do you think they could win if they competed? High 20s. Okay, I was going to say low 30s, so I'm glad we're on the same page. All right. That segment was way longer than I expected. We're going to take a break and then do Ringer 107.

1:09:08Bill Simmons:It's just the NBA. What do you want us to do? This episode is brought to you by Netflix. The T-Mobile Home Run Derby is right around the corner. Might be one of the best showcases of pure power in all sports. Baseball's biggest sluggers, along with some legendary announcers. Pujols, Rizzo, Bonds, Sabathia, Al Duncan. Yeah. Hunter Pence, Matt Faskersian, a whole bunch of people. and it's the one night where you don't swing to make contact. You swing to make history. I'm interested to see what Bond says about this, actually. Anyway, it is all live from Citizens Bank Park in Philly. Watch the T-Mobile Home Run Derby live on Netflix, Monday, July 13th at 8 p.m.

1:09:49Bill Simmons:Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.

1:10:25Bill Simmons:Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com. All right, House, Ringer 107. We went 3-2 last week. Felt like 4-1 was in play, and we couldn't pull it off. We were one game under.500, but we've been slowly clawing back. Yeah. And it's a bye week week this week.

1:11:03Bill Simmons:These are the dangerous weeks when you can't find five games, but you still have to do the five games. I'd like to request that we stay away from Eagles, Giants, and Chiefs, Washington with higher lines. I just want no part of that Eagles, Giants game. I want no part of the Chiefs favored by 9.5 against your team. Mariotta. Is it only 9.5? Is it higher than that? I thought it was much higher. Maybe it's higher. Regardless, we're staying away. Okay. I have three maybes for you. Jets, Bengals. Jets are getting 6.5 in Cincinnati. I don't want to bet this game. I really don't. Jets, 27th DVOA, Cincinnati 29th.

1:11:44Bill Simmons:but the line is so high. It's like trying to sucker you into betting the jets. It's like this is it to take the jets. You're supposed to just be favored by three. We'll give you three and a half extra points to take the jets. You're supposed to take the jets. You're supposed to do it. It's like it's a criterion criterion collection. Had this 50 % off flash sale. I have all the blue rays I want. And I was like, all right, I'll look anyway. It's like, this is a flash sale of three and a half extra points. It's Tyron too, right? We think. Staying away. I'm not betting on the Jets. We bet on the Jets in week two.

1:12:18Bill Simmons:I know. It just sucks. It does suck. Falcons-Dolphins. Falcons minus seven and a half. I have this as a maybe. Only because you have the Atlanta offense, fourth against the run. Miami's defense, 32nd against the run. They didn't fire Mike McDaniel last week. Atlanta's defense is first against the pass. Seventh yard per play. Miami's offense, pretty much terrible across the board. Coming off one of the worst games we've seen anyone play in the last couple years. Falcons minus seven and a half. The hook scares me a little. Not me. Got to play Falcons. This is Falcons at home. The only thing I wondered about was Penix.

1:13:00Bill Simmons:So you want me to move this up? Yeah. Somebody rolled up on him. There was like an ankle kind of thing, and he didn't practice. They had their walkthrough on Wednesday. He did do limited practice, taping this on Thursday. They have a$40 million backup. Well, here's the thing I was wondering about. Now, we're going to play it at 7.5. We can't get out of that spot. This is going to be your pick. I'm definitely. I mean, as long as the Miami Dolphins put Tua out on the football field as their starting quarterback and their head coach is Mike McDaniel, you must bet the other side of it. I don't even know what the number is that would scare me off.

1:13:35It ain't this. It's not 7.5 in Atlanta. We think Atlanta is good when they play at home. We think their defense is good. So this is something we've been on for the last couple weeks.

1:13:45Bill Simmons:Teams you're only allowed to bet on at home because there's another one coming up. Right. I like Atlanta as a home team. Me too. Yeah, I think they roll. I think they smash. And I hope Miami continues to just bring Tua and Mike McDaniel out week after week so we can keep betting the other side. I can't believe Mike McDaniel's comeback. All right, I moved that into the maybe, into the yes category. Last one in the maybes was Saints-Bucks. Saints plus four and a half at home against Tampa. I like the Saints at home a little more than anywhere else. Learned my lesson last week. New Orleans, well, last week we kind of fucked that up.

1:14:23Bill Simmons:That was your pick, but I supported it. And a lot of the reasons we took Miami, went against Miami and Cleveland, bad weather, blah, blah, blah. And then New Orleans is playing outdoors in bad weather. And we have New Orleans. Yeah, wrong. And yet Chicago still was like dying to let them hang around. in that game. Literally, the freaking hook and ladder that the guy threw a forward pass on. It was about to be a game, potential game altering. The trajectory of that game was in doubt. Rattler put the ball, gave the ball away too many times. I don't want to talk about it. So, New Orleans at home lost, came back against Arizona and San Francisco and almost won but lost.

1:15:06Bill Simmons:They beat the Giants at home and they lost to the Pats at home in a game that the refs tried to steal from the Pats. They're only averaging 18 a game. I don't know who's playing for the Bucs. My instinct leans toward the Saints, but I don't really want to have them again. I didn't enjoy it last week. I don't know how long is Rattler going to be the starter? Are they going to start tanking soon? There's a tanking strategy for them, so let's stay away. All right. Yeah, we dabbled with the Saints. That's enough. It's like, you know. There's a parlay possibility house. Yeah. we have the Colts minus 14 and half against the Titans we can use their money line or some sort of version of it because they're going to kill the Titans could also just lay the points Patriots against the Browns Pats minus 7 Cleveland's offense is just horrible 28th rush 30th pass 27 first downs I know their defense is good but I do think the Pats defense this is a perfect game for them because they're really good at stopping the run you can throw on them a little bit but Cleveland has Dylan Gabriel this New England fan base is so fired up by this Patriots team they haven't had like a kick-ass home game yet the Carolina game was like in doubt for an hour and then they came back and won but I think this could be the kick-ass game once you go up 13 the game's over I totally agree with this the only modest proposal I would like to make as we think about the idea of a parlay, a Moneyline parlay here is I honestly would rather because we don't have a lot of choices on the card this week use the Colts, let the Colts lay the points with the Colts and use the Chiefs parlay the Chiefs and the Patriots we might have enough though the other one I was going to throw in was the Ravens against the Bears at home you know where I'm coming from on this.

1:17:04Ravens Not only that, can I borrow some money from somebody?

1:17:09Bill Simmons:Yeah, this is the first playoff game of the year with the Ravens. This is kitchen sink. We have to win. We have Caleb. I made this prediction on Tuesday's pod. We did one crazy prediction, me and the fantasy guys, that Tyson Bajit as the starter for the Bears by week 13. Caleb was not good in that New Orleans game. Wow. He was not.

1:17:31Bill Simmons:But parlay of Ravens, Patriots, and Colts minus 1.5 gets us under the minus 120. Pats to win, Ravens to win, Colts win by two. It's minus 117 on FanDuel, and we can do that and win. Well, what are the remainder games? What other games are we betting? Well, I'm just putting that in. Okay. I mean, I'm just barking at that. That might be one of my picks. All right, here are the possibles. Texans minus one and a half against the 49ers. Houston's two and four. Four of those games were on the road. Their next three are at home. They're eighth in DVOA somehow. Because their defense is sick. Their defense is awesome.

1:18:10Bill Simmons:Coming off this ugly Seattle game, right, where they couldn't block. But guess what? Seattle has an awesome defense. And they were home, and it was a Monday night, and they were maniacs the whole game. I'm in on Houston's defense. I thought that, like, talk about hats on the ballhouse. Yeah. It was one of those eight guys tackling every Seattle guy. They even got a penalty because they had too many guys continue to tackle somebody. Their defense, third in DVOA, it's only given up 14.7 points a game. They're going against Mac Jones. They're going against the San Francisco team that was able to scotch tape a defense last week and do a bunch of shit that now you can just watch the tape and be like, oh, they're doing this.

1:18:48Bill Simmons:Let's do this instead. They're going to have no pass rush. I don't care if Nico Collins plays or not. I think Stroud with actual time to throw will be okay. And it's Texans minus one and a half. I love the Texans in this spot. So I just was scared of this game because I have been on the wrong side of Shanahan and the 49ers too many times this season. Like they just keep, we keep saying - Here's the thing, they're five and two house. We just keep saying, here's the point where it flips for them defensively. here. Bosa, they can't get any pressure on. But we had them last week. We took them Sunday night.

1:19:28Bill Simmons:And it was the correct play. I know, but I'm just saying like, you know. This is just like, I just want to bet the Houston defense in this game. Houston defense against Mac Jones. The contest we have at one and a half. It's your pick. I'm lukewarm on it. You're lukewarm? Yeah. Okay. I like it. I don't think Houston's going two and five. If they lose this game, their season's over. This is a kitchen sink game for them. I just want proof. I want to see like one great quarter of offense when it's not against the Titans. Counter. This is a classic. Niners look probably better than they are on Sunday night.

1:20:14Bill Simmons:Houston looked worse than they are. They had a bad situation for the team they have on a Monday night. Okay. And this line should probably be two and a half or higher because of their defense. Two and a half now, for the purposes of our contest, we got it at one and a half. It's published at one and a half. We're playing at one and a half. The public is going to have to ride the market. I want to make sure. So it's definitely, I want to make sure we don't cheat. No, it's two and a half right now, but I believe for - It's one and a half. Yeah, we have it at one and a half. I know. I know. It's locked at one and a half for the purposes of the contest.

1:20:46Next one, I want you to talk me out of this because I like it.

1:20:50Bill Simmons:Panthers plus seven and a half at home against Buffalo. We talked about Carolina at home, how they're a different team. Dalton, Bryce Young, I don't think it matters. Carolina's third rushing attack this year. Third in rush yards. Buffalo 31st against the run. They are getting their two suspended D linemen back. Carolina's D's not terrible. 15th DVOA, eighth against the rush. It is betting against Josh Allen. Josh Allen against bad teams has been money. but the seven and a half like even that's that's like a cheap touchdown late. We can't do it. I'll take me out of it. I'll take the L. Here's why.

1:21:29The the the Bills lost two games in a row and then had a bye. And they have Josh Allen. Come off the bye with Josh Allen and lose another game. They're going to lose to the Patriots. This line should be four and a half. They're going to lose to the Patriots the Falcons and the Panthers. I mean, we're talking about the fact that the line still has some inflation in it. Like, we're not giving Carolina credit. I agree with all of that. Seven and a half, though. It's still, in this modern NFL era, a one-score game at seven and a half. I don't know.

1:22:09Bill Simmons:I might make it one of my picks. I also don't mind the plus 310 for them. Oh, for the Panthers to win out, right? For the actual money line, which we're not doing in these contests. But the case for Buffalo is a couple losses, bye week, getting the guys back on D. Yes. We're going to show everybody. Our defense is actually back. And that's what my fear is with this is you're like, oh, my God, why do we bet against Josh Allen? The seven and a half is high. They can get rolling, though. That's the problem. We thought that that might happen in that Atlanta game, but Atlanta really had a great pass rush at home and a very good game plan.

1:22:46And they just ran the ball, ran the ball, ran the ball. Can Carolina replicate that? Here's the other case for this.

1:22:51Bill Simmons:They had the Chiefs next week, Buffalo. So is this a Milton Burrell? Let's just pull out enough to win. Get in, get out. Let's not do too much. Let's not get anyone hurt. Back door's open. They could be up 14 in the fourth quarter. That's why the seven and a half is huge. All right, mark it down. Cowboys plus three and a half at Denver. All the advanced stats say Dallas is a better team. They're ninth in DVOA, Denver's 14th. Dallas's offense, top four, second in yards per play. Denver's defense, first in yards per play, which is good. But the question for me is the Cowboys, I just think, are going to score every week against whoever, right?

1:23:33Bill Simmons:Can Denver match points with them? I think this line's just too high. To get in the hook, I feel like this should be like Broncos one and a half. I think these teams might be even. I've been really impressed by Dallas as have I I think they're well coached I said out loud on many programs last week that I didn't think that Washington I had to puff my chest out because it was Dallas week but yeah it was fraught that was a fraught situation that was our big miss last week not taking Dallas by Sunday that would have been that was a big mess that was one that I bet on and I loved it I bet it as well so Dallas wins this if Dallas can somehow win this in Denver Cardinals next week, bye week, and then they're at Vegas on Monday Night Football.

1:24:20Bill Simmons:There's actually a path for them to be a playoff team, but I think they need this game. Why did they get blown out by the Bears? CeeDee Lamb got hurt. Okay. Couple coverage breakdowns. They just couldn't adjust on the fly quickly enough. They just couldn't. Why did the Patriots lose to the Raiders? First game of the season, that's all. Yeah. I almost wonder with the first three weeks of the year, do we just... You know, Green Bay killed the trait. Would that happen now? No. I don't know. I don't think so. All right, Cowboys plus three and a half. We're marking this down. The Bo Nix thing, he just can't.

1:24:58Bill Simmons:It takes him two hours to be decent. You're not going to. I don't know the circumstance. There will be a circumstance where I'm comfortable. They're laying less than a field goal, maybe. I'm not sure who the opponent has to be. look I asked him to shove it in my face against the Eagles and he did it he led them to 18 points in the fourth quarter against the Eagles on the road in Philly and Dak against a really good Denver defense which I think he can throw on but Dak has been one of the best four players in the league this year Cowboys plus three and a half we'll mark that down Packers Steelers Packers favored by three in Pittsburgh and normally you would say, oh, Pittsburgh, Tomlin, home.

1:25:48Bill Simmons:It's a smash spot. Can I make a Packers case for you? I'm going to listen while I look something up here real quick. You seem like you've lost interest in the... No, I'm looking. I thought it was three and a half. No, for our contest, it's three. Yeah. Minus 120. Look at how they price that thing. I know. Sunday night game. If this was a Sunday 1 p.m. game, I'd be afraid to take Green Bay. Sunday night game, the lights are on, and I do think this team has the lights are on. They have that side to them. DVOA, Green Bay's sixth, Pittsburgh's tenth. Pittsburgh's defense, 31st against the pass, 31st against first downs, 25th on third down.

1:26:33Bill Simmons:And if you look at their wins, barely beat the Jets week one. Fields' last great game ever. Probably ever. They beat the Pats because the Pats turned the ball over five fucking times and fumbled on the goal line and threw a goal line pick. They beat Minnesota by three points in Ireland with Carson Wentz. And they beat Cleveland, who sucks. Those are their four wins. It was Cleveland coming off their international game with Dylan Gabriel. Yeah. All they did was... Then they lost to Joe Flacco last week. 26th against the run. Green Bay second against the run, their defense. So I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball.

1:27:15Bill Simmons:So this would have to be an Aaron Rodgers beats us game. And granted, going against Green Bay, but this just feels like a square, oh, Steelers, Tomlin at home, Rodgers revenge game. And it's like, how about this? We thought the Packers were a potential Super Bowl team before the year. Like you win this game if you're going to the Super Bowl. That would be the case. I don't have the time to go look and see what it opened at. It was three and a half for quite a bit of this week. And I thought it was a great Steelers situation. Yeah. The three is not a great number. I don't love... Packers minus three?

1:27:55Yeah. But are you worried about the push? Well, no, I just mean from the Steelers perspective. perspective um i like it much better with them you know dog fight with with the hook yeah but i want to take the packers i understand that that's this is what i'm i had a case prepared for the steelers with the hook with the hook yes yeah the hook feels pretty vital to me um because look here's the thing that pittsburgh has been unable to address all season long they give up explosives like it's Pookie and Black Tony giving out injury advice before a Trailblazers game. They just can't wait to let somebody throw the football down the field.

1:28:43And that is one thing for sure that Jordan Love can do. It's one thing for sure that the Packers can do. They can throw the football down the football field.

1:28:51Bill Simmons:I also, you know, they've definitely been spotty the last few weeks. There's no question, right? And they've had like Jacobs losing 100%, Jordan Love. The pace of their, they had that terrible Cleveland game. Just terrible. I like the zag. You know what? I'm feeling the zag. I'm feeling it. You're kidding me. Like a Sunday night, the Packers. It's a narrative game where we come out of that game. We're like, oh, the Packers. Maybe they are a contender. Yeah, because everybody was ready to write off the Packers after they looked so dominant the first two weeks. And then they showed some inconsistency.

1:29:21the Dallas tie not looking very impressive.

1:29:26Bill Simmons:Dak was just unbelievable in that game. The reason they tied, they scored 40 points. So why wouldn't they score 40 points against Pittsburgh? I'm here. I like this. Let's do this. Yeah. I like this. We're looking at, I think we have our five then. That was easy. On a short week, we somehow have five picks. Apologies to the Panthers. They didn't make the cut. This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG. If I'm ever traveling for work, where I stay is so important. I actually really care about this because sometimes I even have to do a podcast wherever I'm staying. In general, I don't go on the road that much, but when I go on the road, I like to be in a nice hotel with a nice room.

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1:30:53Bill Simmons:And State Farm is the same way with insurance experts who put in the work as well. Whether you get a digital quote or reach out to a local agent, State Farm is there to get to know you and help you select the right coverage that fits your life and your budget. Putting in the work is what separates the good players from the great, and that's why you want State Farm on your team. So get the coverage that's right for you, like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability and eligibility vary by state. All right, House, here we go. Today's Ringer 107, the BS House edition is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

1:31:31Bill Simmons:We are one game under 500 for this season. We are 16 and 17. And we were 0 and 7 in games that could have gone either way or something weird happened the last three minutes. And then we finally had some luck on Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings where we had them in a parlay. They were, what, plus seven and a half? Plus seven and a half. They're down six. Eagles get this long-played A.J. Brown, and it's like, oh, my God, they're going to get a field goal. We're going to get screwed again. And they do some wacky time thing where they run out the clock and they don't have to kick the field goal. It's the first time anything's gone our way all year in a stupid situation like that.

1:32:10Bill Simmons:So that makes me feel good. First one, we're going to do your pick. The Falcons just to blow out the Dolphins. Yes, sir. Falcons minus seven and a half at home. We love the Falcons as a home team. Sure do. We just feel like at this point to be able to bet against Tua and Mike McDaniel, much like watching Victor Wemadiamma right now, a privilege. I mean, we can go X's and O's. We can talk about how dominant the Falcons' rush attack has been, how incredible Bijan has been, how destitute the Dolphins' run defenses, how the Dolphins' offensive line is an abomination, and the pressure that the Falcons can bring.

1:32:46Oh, they can't stop the run? We can do all those things, but we don't really need to. You just have to look at Mixed Type Mike one time, take a snapshot of that dude at his press conference

1:32:55Bill Simmons:and be like, I'm betting against that guy. This is the I wish I wasn't going against B. John Robinson fantasy week. Falcons minus seven and a half. That's our first one. They should be able to hopefully run it up. We like the Falcons' home team. Next one, Texans minus one and a half at home against 49ers. this is a bet on the Houston defense in a kitchen sink situation going against Mac Jones and a Niners defense that's just scotch tape, duct tape and glue and some thumbtacks. I just want to say I respect San Francisco. I'm hoping that the football gods look favorably. How about this? They don't need the game.

1:33:31Bill Simmons:They're 5-2. This is an AFC cross thing. I get it. That's a knockdown drag out that NFC West. I believe that Houston defense I thought what they did Monday night as their offensive line was just murdering them and Stroud was murdering them and their defense over and over again was like, fine we'll get the ball back again, great Cowboys plus three and a half against the Broncos is our next one, this is in Denver this is, we think these teams are pretty even, Dak is a top three or top four guy in the league and if it's a shootout or a back and forth with Bo Nix I'd like to have my money on Dak I also think there's backdoor potential even if they're down 10 late of them scoring again.

1:34:12Bill Simmons:And we both like this Cowboys team. We do. Yeah. I'm just, you know, once again in a position where Bo Nix might shove it right in my face. Just saying. Well, as we're doing Ringer 107, the Vikings are down by 21 to the Chargers. And that was a potential playoff, you know, competitor for Dallas to get that six seed or seven seed. So if you can shove the Vikings out of there, you get Caleb to self-combust with the Bears. It's going to be the Falcons and the Cowboys. Not even kidding. Yeah, because Washington's out. Falcon, and then Packers-Steelers. This is a nice zag for us. Sunday night, Steelers looking too obvious with Tomlin at home, Pittsburgh, Aaron Rodgers rejuvenation.

1:34:57Bill Simmons:But if you go through that Steelers schedule, the wins and some of the stats, it's pretty grim. We think there's another level to this Packers team. And every week, somebody goes up and people are like, whoa, that team. And I think this is a whoa, that team for the Packers. I do like it. Packers minus three on the road Sunday night. Then last one, a little parlay. Colts down to minus one and a half as they're blowing out Tennessee. We got that. Pats just to win against Cleveland. Only win. Just win by one. We're fine. And then the Ravens in the ultimate kitchen sink game. They cannot go one and six.

1:35:32Bill Simmons:They have to beat the Bears. We get to bet against a very shaky Caleb Williams against a Bears defense with some really good advanced stats going against him and more importantly on Lamar Jackson. Well, here's the thing for the Ravens, and I will separately be betting this. This will be my best bet. And I don't really even care if ultimately Lamar doesn't end up playing. I mean, he practiced. There is the hamstring thing. They are healthy for the first time on offense with Picard at fullback and likely at tight end. And here's the thing for everybody to do when you hear this, go as fast as you can and buy your Derrick Henry.

1:36:13Their whole run game is a 12 personnel run game where Picard and likely are goddamn dominant. Go get every Derrick Henry total now, because it'll all be seven yards higher. Get the number of touches, you know, attempts, all of it, get all your Derrick Henry. Now, anytime touchdown, the whole kit and caboodle, because those prices are going to be through the roof by Sunday. I love the Ravens to absolutely smash the Bears this week.

1:36:43Bill Simmons:Ravens win. Pats win. Colts by minus one and a half over Tennessee. Minus 117. That's our last pick. Texans minus one and a half. Cowboys plus three and a half. Falcons minus seven and a half. Packers minus three. That is the ringer 107. It was brought to you by Fanduil Sportsbook. Odd subject to change. House, we did it. We just cruised through a fucking shitload of stuff in an hour and a half. I'm proud of us. It's pretty good. I mean, Albany and Bruce thought that was a pretty goddamn good show. I know. Got to get his thoughts later. I'll see you at our illegal poker game today. I can't wait.

1:37:21Let me borrow your contacts. All right.

1:37:26Bill Simmons:That's it for the podcast. Thanks to House. Thanks to Gajal and Eduardo as well. I will be back on Sunday with the Cubs. Hopefully the Patriots will be six and two. Hopefully we won't have any more legal NBA gambling scandal stuff. And I will see you on Sunday night.

1:37:59Bill Simmons:Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents. Managing your money works the same way. Have you ever thought, am I getting the most out of my financial plan?

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