Apex Josh Allen, the Goofy NFC North, Week 2 Picks, and Bill’s Breakup Letter to the Clippers | With Tom Pelissero and Joe House

17:02Tom Pelissero:Sione Vaki is the number two running back who has three carries total over two games. I don't know this for sure, but I would give you an educated guess, Bill, that by the time the Lions are back on the practice field Monday, they'll have another veteran back on the roster. They had Kareem Hunt in for a visit recently. Who's available? John Dorsey, who drafted him in Kansas City, is now in Detroit. That would be a logical guy that would fit in. There's some other veteran running backs out there. I would be willing to bet you, they know as well as anybody, that's not sustainable. I mean, 17-game season, average 30 touches a game, that's hard to do, which is also why, like I said, Kenneth Walker, I don't know that you want to do that, especially early in the season at quite that clip.

17:50Bill Simmons:I'm positive you don't. I looked up his first four years, I don't think he'd ever had more than 255 touches, something like that. The other storyline, I have some Lions fans in my life, weirdly. The Ben Johnson, keeping Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson leaving, which, by the way, what are they going to do? Fire Dan Campbell after they went like 14-3 to give? Nobody would ever do that in a million years. So it's fundamentally a stupid argument. But I do think there's a real shadow with Ben Johnson where you had this guy who's clearly a really special, special, special coach. you know and offensively it's just completely different and you know i think the lions fans that i know are like we're gonna end up like we'll fire campbell in a year from now and ben johnson's basically going to be the new mcveigh and we just got stuck with the wrong guy i don't know if that's fair but have you have you heard that in the circles at all like ah they they

18:50Tom Pelissero:backed the wrong dude here well not backed the wrong dude because dan campbell has a lot of respect within the league and everybody knows you know the ford family loves dan campbell remember sheila came out midway through his second year during the bye when they were like four and 25 or something at that point was like dan's our guy like we're not backing off this just just put it all to bed dan's our guy like she she believed in the culture so much and it proved to be correct with ben i can tell you they would have much rather he not be in the division right that would have been nice if he had just left but the Bears job was the one job that he wanted so listen they've got a capable offensive coordinator there in Drew Petsing and this is Dan Campbell's offense Ben is the play caller Ben did a lot of the design and in terms of like all those little things like he was a driving force because you see him doing it in Chicago but it's still at its course the offense that Dan along with Ben put in when they relieved Anthony Lynn of his play calling duties back in Dan's first year.

19:54Tom Pelissero:So like the bones of it hasn't changed. Yeah, there's probably some rhythm that goes into it that you need to find. If Jameson Williams didn't have a good game in week one, that doesn't help you. Again, you're relying a ton on Gibbs. You're relying on Laporta. You're relying on Amon Ross St. Brown. Laporta's staying healthy. And the offensive line, by the way, lest we forget, was down two starters tonight. And it looked like it for the whole first half. Yeah, I mean, there's always going to be a piece of that. There's no doubt about it. And if Ben Johnson wins the Super Bowl before Dan Campbell does, you're going to have, you know, those questions.

20:25Tom Pelissero:But there was never a thought. I guarantee you that of like, what if we just hold on to Ben? They felt fortunate to Ben two years in a row before that turned down head coaching jobs to come back.

20:37Bill Simmons:Like they had what was the one he turned down the year before was a Washington.

20:40Tom Pelissero:He turned down Carolina two years before he went to Chicago. They had the plane essentially. Yeah, I mean this metaphorically, but I think it's literally true. They had the plane waiting for him and he didn't get on the plane. The year after the commanders, people were flying into Detroit. Yeah. And he was trying, frankly, to call them and text them while they're on the plane to say, don't come. They're already up there. They don't have Starlink or whatever. And so they land and it's like, he's not coming. So, yeah, he had two different jobs, went back to Detroit twice, took the swing. They got knocked out, you know, in the playoffs in that last year.

21:17Tom Pelissero:and he was on to Chicago within two days.

21:21Bill Simmons:These NFC North defenses, so we have Detroit, which looks like they're going to be in trouble for at least until their two D-backs come back. We have Chicago. They gave up 37 points last week to Bryce Young and it actually probably could have been worse. And then you have Green Bay who got lit up by Carson Wentz and themselves on Sunday. I don't know what to make of them. who knows what they're going to do with the Jets. And then you have Minnesota, who's just doing, they're just going to blitz the living hell out of everybody, and some teams will be able to handle it, some teams won't. I can't tell who the best NFC North team is, is my point.

22:03Bill Simmons:My instinct is maybe Chicago's offense is better than anybody else's anything in that division. But for the most part, like, could 9-8 win the NFC North?

22:14Tom Pelissero:I don't think so.

22:16Bill Simmons:Like, 10-7? Like, what's the floor for first-place wins in this division?

22:21Tom Pelissero:They're going to beat each other up. There's no doubt about it. But, you know, the Vikings have a case. I mean, the best, most intriguing matchup in terms of X's and O's this week is Ben Johnson versus Brian Flores at Soldier Field. Like, that's fun. Like, does Flo keep just blitzing the hell out of him? Does he all of a sudden just play coverage for the day? And, you know, what's the back and forth like there? Green Bay's waiting for Michael Parsons to get back. If you go back to this string of, everyone keeps saying, this string of losses, it's literally since the game where Micah tore his ACL in Denver.

22:51Tom Pelissero:And ever since then, they have leads in all these games, and they can't close it because they don't have the guy to get after the passer. Plus, they traded Rashawn Gary in the offseason, too.

22:59Bill Simmons:And the Jacobs thing is no small thing either because I just don't think the running backs are good right now. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball with what they have.

23:08Tom Pelissero:Fourth and one last week in Minnesota. I know everybody breaking down the floor, pulling the field goal off the board and going for it on fourth and one. Mathematically, correct decision to make based on all the game management people I talked to this week. But also, if you have Josh Jacobs, it's probably a run to Josh Jacobs and not Jordan Love trying to move the pile. They got Chris Brooks and Marshawn Lloyd and Caleb Johnson as a committee behind an offensive line that never practiced together in camp because everybody was hurt. They've got their challenges. I don't know that there's a clear favorite.

23:39Tom Pelissero:I guess you'd say the Bears, until proven otherwise, but they also, while scoring 59 points, they also made Bryce Young look like he might be headed to Canton in that game last week, too. And Jalen Coker.

23:50Bill Simmons:Well, the Lions were better favorites. Now in Fando, they're basically, the Bears and Lions are pretty even. And who knows with the Bears. All right, put your reporter hat on. Let's do it. Anyone on the hot seat yet? I know it's not even week two. Is the seat warming up for anybody?

24:15Tom Pelissero:Are we feeling it yet? Not yet, but I would say this. I've had this conversation a bunch today. When teams fall to 0-2, that's when panic mode takes over. At that point, just within the building, it starts to be, we're either screwed or we've got to trade for a guy and shake things up. That's when you start to really feel it. I think that some of the coaches that probably came into this year feeling like they had a lot on the line, got wins, you know, in week one. You saw, I mean, the Jets came out and got a win. Let's see what happens when the Packers go out there this week. It's a big week. They haven't started 2-0 in forever in New York.

24:52Tom Pelissero:You know, I thought the most disappointing game last week, the most disappointing team was the Chargers. And I'm not saying Jim Harbaugh is on the hot seat, but... Why not? I've made this point before. You don't pay a guy that much money and bring him in with that much fanfare to expect to go one and done in the playoffs every year. Like, you're bringing them in because you think you're winning a Super Bowl. They just look flat against a Cardinals team that if you, I think we talked about this, Bill, the first appearance. It's like, name the teams that might have the number one pick. Like, the Cardinals are on the short list of, like, five teams.

25:24Tom Pelissero:They came out last week and looked totally competent on both sides of the football, and the Chargers just looked dead. That's what I'm watching, not because I think Jim Harbaugh gets fired, but more so, like, we all want to believe Mike McDaniel and, like, you know, the unique personality, and he's a genius, and he is and Jim, but like those two, in terms of how they see football, much less their personalities, like they don't exactly mesh on paper. So let's see what they do this week. You know, what, what is it actually going to look like? Is it going to be Mike McDaniel's offense? Is it going to be elements of, of Jim's offense?

25:54Tom Pelissero:And, and, oh yeah, they're probably doing it without Lab McConkie too.

25:57Bill Simmons:House and I talk about that game because they're playing the Raiders, right? And it's in LA, um, seems like a good spot to get back and maybe they blow out the Raiders. We're like, ah, the charges are fine. I watched, there was only four games on the late window. And I, so I really was carefully watching everything. It wasn't just that they look flat. They, I thought they looked legitimately slow. I didn't feel like they were that athletic and I don't, maybe they were so flat. It made them look slow, but I just thought they didn't have speed on defense at all. The middle of their line, the two tackles are great.

26:33Bill Simmons:The middle of the line, it was just collapsing. Herbert was a mess. They lost McConkie in the game because he threw him a hospital ball. And, you know, I watched that game thinking, like, I think Arizona is, like, right there. I think they have more talent. Arizona had, like, six long drives on them. It wasn't like, you know, like when the, what was the game when the Steelers beat the Pats last year and the Pats had, like, five turnovers. It was like your classic stupid September game. This was like Arizona kind of kicked the Chargers' ass. And the stuff Harbaugh said after the game about, like, Like, ah, maybe we should have taken preseason more seriously.

27:11Bill Simmons:And I thought it was alarming. That was the team I had in the playoffs. And that would be my one do-over from what I saw in week one. I don't think that's a playoff team.

27:19Tom Pelissero:There's this strange thing happening, too, with the Chargers. And it's gone on the entire time Jim Harbaugh has been there. But it, like, accelerated with the whole Justin Herbert will go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play the game, quote. Yeah. Jim is brought in in part to turn Justin Herbert into that player. And yet here we are. Justin Herbert's a really, really good football player, but you're entering year seven, I believe for Herbert. You have no playoff wins. They just looked not good around him. It wasn't all Herbert, but like the whole offense just looked bad in that game. And I don't know.

27:55Tom Pelissero:Jim's a unique guy. Like, I don't know if there's a strategy behind that to try to like pull it out of Herbert or why you keep making those remarks. But like, and I'm sure he didn't expect to get the crap kicked out of him by Arizona in week one. But just to like set that as like the baseline, this guy's the greatest ever. And then you watch the game and it's like, the Cardinals are beating the shit out of him. Like, it's just - Yeah, it's absurd.

28:18Bill Simmons:He also was absurd with J.J. McCarthy. There's stuff he said about him as well. It's like he wants to praise you to build you up, but it ends up, you know, being stupid. I did a thing on my pod this week about, Justin Herbert used to be the nerd king. all the football nerds love Justin Herbert and they would defend him. He's better than you realize. And now that's kind of drifted to Jordan love and Herbert. You know, it's, it's not your three. It's not your four. Like I think by year seven, you kind of are who you are as a quarterback with really rare exceptions. So I don't, that, that Raiders game, if they lose that game, I think that's hot seat time.

28:57Well,

28:57Bill Simmons:I look at this and go, what's going on. We, you guys haven't had a real impact. You have not a playoff win. You paid Harbor all this money. Like, what are we doing?

29:04Tom Pelissero:And my concern is McConkie's out, and I expect him to be out for the game. Yeah. Who are you moving around? Like, Mike McDaniel's offense is, you know, I know he got away from the motions a little bit his last year in Miami, but, like, it's all about creating these mismatches around the field. Like, they have Quentin Johnson. But Quentin Johnson's a vertical, you know, stretch receiver. He's not bounced around all these different spots. Like, Ladd is, to me, that's the main chess piece. That's the guy who moves the entire board. With him not out there, it puts so much more pressure on you to just kind of win one-on-one at different spots.

29:38Tom Pelissero:I'll be interested to see how Mike approaches this game and what he tries to throw at the Raiders. But the Raiders, Bowers still hasn't practiced. Seems unlikely that he plays this week. They found ways to function last week. Gentry got himself going. Gentry was good. I think they got a chance to score some points in this game if the Chargers offense doesn't show up. And you know it's a Raiders home game, by the way, in that building. Like the Raiders fans come out for it. This is not like a gimme right now in my mind. I think it's a pretty big game. Yeah, the line was, I think it was over seven and it's dropped and it's chargers by six and a half.

30:13Bill Simmons:But I think it's going to keep dropping because the tough thing with the Raiders is they put Miami who might go on 17. Like we, we know they're bad. We're kind of going to know after the San Francisco game this week, how bad they are. So it's tough to kind of know what's happened with the Raiders. Tell me what's going on with the Minnesota QB situation.

30:31Tom Pelissero:So Kyler's in the concussion protocol, but he's progressed, been progressing through it this week. They've not ruled him out. I don't think he plays on Sunday for a variety of different reasons, but he may be cleared in time to play in that game. You know, with Carson Wentz, he steps in. Wentz at this stage in his career, I think there are times where he's at his best when there's no pressure on him. come off the bench. He had no reps in practice. Just like go out there and play. Don't even think about it.

31:03Bill Simmons:It's like an amnesia game. You just kind of come in. Don't know what happened. He threw three touchdowns. No picks in that game. And they came back. He was kind of awesome.

31:11Tom Pelissero:He really was. He took some big hits too. I mean, it was, you know, he's not moving around like he used to, but it was shades of 2017 Carson Wentz just in terms of how he distributed the football. So, you know, if Wentz goes in this week, I don't think this is at all a situation where, hey, if Wentz plays well again, then Kyler, you're going to the bench and Wentz is staying in. Like, Wentz gets hurt every year, quite frankly. Like, you hope he doesn't, but that's just his track record is he's going to get banged up. Kyler also gets hurt a lot. J.J.'s not been able to stay on the field. Like, that's why they got three of these guys was Kevin O 'Connell's going, I've used three or four quarterbacks in two of my four seasons.

31:47Tom Pelissero:I better have three guys who can play. So it would be Wentz is the one, J.J. backing him up, and I anticipate if Kyler doesn't play, which, again, I can't 100 % rule out Kyler playing this week against the Bears based on where he is in the protocol. But I fully anticipate he's back in the lineup probably week three, regardless how Wentz does this week.

32:06Bill Simmons:What are you hearing about Philly?

32:10Tom Pelissero:In terms of just the way that they're playing, I mean, it was kind of an ugly win against the commanders. They did enough. I thought Hertz looked more comfortable than I expected running that offense that he really hadn't been exposed to before. you know that division man like I know everybody wanted to talk about Dallas going into the season and they may well week one might be the outlier I think they'll be better on defense they had more low coverages and missed assignments and stuff like I never bought like they're a Super Bowl favorite right now like their step is just get in the playoffs so this you know this to me sets up as like another perfect season where everyone bitches about the Eagles the entire season and then we get to the end and they're 11 and six and they're playing in the playoffs like i don't know the giants came out like they looked better john arbaugh's a good coach we'll see commanders like jayden looked good that was one takeaway i had was like he actually is moving like himself second half was good yeah yeah like it looks more like it but i i still like the eagles are still the team to beat they're just based on the market they play in and all the stuff that comes with the eagles you know they're the team that we're going to complain about no matter how many games they're winning because of the fashion in which they win them.

33:20Bill Simmons:I said on the Sunday night pod, I was saying every game they play, both fan bases are bummed out at the end of the game. It doesn't matter who they're playing. Both sides are like, man, that sucked. What's wrong with us? And it's always disjointed and you just never feel great. The Bob Kraft stuff, were you following that this week? I was. What is the NFL's role when they have owners involved in stuff that's not football, but are they just hands off with that? What do they do? Do they give them counsel or they just hope it goes away?

33:53Tom Pelissero:I mean, they're always available to give counsel, but I mean, the owners run the league, you know, the 32 owners are really Roger Goodell's boss in a lot of ways. I mean, Kraft just is the chair of the compensation committee that just awarded him a new contract. So when it comes to what's happening in your building, there's very few occasions where they start to coordinate. You know, the social justice protests were a time where they kind of got together, like, how do we handle this? And if you remember, every team did it differently. I mean, you had Dan Snyder out there locking arms with his players on the field, like images that make no sense in any context other than it was 2020 and shit got weird.

34:32Tom Pelissero:But like things like this, no. I mean, Robert, his work for, you know, a variety of different foundations and whatnot, his work in Israel is pretty well documented. This is an odd situation. I saw Ed Sheeran, by the way, like three weeks ago. Had no idea I was seeing him before he became a socio-political lightning rod. It's the volleyball. The most inoffensive music and inoffensive guy you can possibly think of. Now suddenly he's thrust into the limelight.

34:58Bill Simmons:It's like Michael Bublé being involved.

35:00Tom Pelissero:It's not a league issue. In terms of anything that I've heard, though, obviously, you know, you have people playing stadiums and things happen. It's going to impact more than one owner.

35:12Bill Simmons:What do you think is the biggest league issue right now that they're kind of hoping doesn't become bigger? Do we have one or is it just smooth sailing this year?

35:20Tom Pelissero:I'd say it's a quiet time for the NFL in advance of a really wild time. The NFL, based on everyone's expectations, is going to opt out of their TV deals in 2029. That's three years away. Like it's coming up. They're trying to open some of them early and do new deals. But like, that's the prelude. Those TV deals that are the prelude to the CBA being up in 31. There's a new executive director in J.C. Tretter who's just taking over. They worked out a deal on the fines thing. If you saw that where, you know, players now, like the way the fines work and suspensions, basically three strikes and you're out on certain types of fouls.

35:56Tom Pelissero:Like they worked that out, which is a good sign that like the sides can actually work together. There's not like, yeah, there's not that overarching thing. You get three guys in the exempt list, you know, that's never ideal, but that's, you know, that'll play itself out. It's not totally uncommon. Business is good, man. The salary cap is over$300 million. It's gone up. It's like tripled in a decade. Like, that's crazy. But it's because it's a revenue sharing agreement and they're making money hand over fist. Like, it's a great time to be the NFL, but just with the changing media landscape and the opt-out.

36:31Bill Simmons:So there's something's coming, but we're not. We're not near it yet. I mean, the big thing is the young quarterback stars that they've been able to regenerate. They almost have these two separate age groups of like the mid-20s to 30, but then like the Caleb Drake, you know, that territory of Mendoza come in. They just, this is a league that's always as interesting as all the quarterbacks they have. And it feels like there's just a lot of interesting quarterbacks right now.

36:57Tom Pelissero:Everybody complains about officiating, but like we're a week in a game in and we have basically no officiating controversies. They, you know, staved up new replacement.

37:07Bill Simmons:Don't tell the Green Bay fans that.

37:09Tom Pelissero:I mean, or the Saints fans after the play with golf last week. But like, you don't have like the, you know what I mean? Like the off the charts wild thing. Like it's, business is good right now. You know what I would say is, you know, it's a wild card right now.

37:25Bill Simmons:I think there's so much money out there that wants to buy sports teams that I wonder if there's some godfather offers coming for some of these NFL teams. Because we really haven't had that much turnover with the NFL. What do we have? Basically, maybe a new team, new owner every 18 months. Yeah, that's about the right cadence, yeah. Yeah, but there's some pretty big franchises. Like Liverpool just went in soccer, right? The Celtics and the Lakers just sold in basketball. I do wonder if there's a couple of the big ones, like the Bears. Could the Bears be available? Could the Jets be available? You know, like some pretty big cities with big football teams.

38:09Tom Pelissero:The question would be, the big money would come in if some of the family-owned teams begin to sell. And I know there's been a lot of speculation about the Bears because you got all these various McCaskey family members with different interests and how they're trying to get a stadium built, whether that's in Indiana, potentially in Arlington Heights, but they've, they've said repeatedly, they're not selling the team. If those types of teams, there's really two different classes of owners. You can say three, you got the, the really rich guys who bought the teams for not that much. The Jerry Jones, Robert crafts of the world.

38:46Tom Pelissero:You've got the new money type of owners like Shad Khan. When he came in, um, the, the costless who just bought the Seahawks for over$9 billion. Like that's kind of the new money. And then you've got these ones that are still what I'd call the commercial flight teams. They're the ones who like, they don't have the private jet. They don't have the crazy practice facilities. They're still running their organization kind of way that they always have, right? The Bengals still, they built a bubble. Finally, it's down the street and you got to walk outside and get to it. But they do finally have a practice bubble.

39:21Tom Pelissero:They don't have to go to the Cincinnati gym anymore. But like, they're an organization. They've started selling their naming rights to the stadium. They've changed their guarantee structure to get some of their big contracts done. They traded the number 10 pick for Dexter Lawrence. Even they're like evolving. But if those teams ever start to sell, if the money gets so crazy that those teams sell, the whole reason is inventory. Like that's the biggest reason you don't have turnovers because nobody ever goes up for sale unless you get runoff like Dan Snyder or it's in a trust like Jody Allen after Paul Allen died that the Seahawks had to be sold at some point.

39:53Tom Pelissero:You don't have like the, hey, this team that's been in business, with one family for 50 years or 100 years now gets sold, that stuff hasn't happened. If we ever get to that point and you're seeing chunks of it sold to private equity already, if you start to see some of those teams tap out, that's where the real money comes in because the average net worth of the owners will skyrocket at that point.

40:16Bill Simmons:With the new media deal coming too. Anything else from your notebook? You have your big newsletter coming this weekend, but any last tidbits before we go here?

40:26Tom Pelissero:I do have, I've got some good stuff coming in the notebook. I mean, we're live. What are we, midnight on Netflix? I'll share a little bit. I got working on some things with the Deshaun Watson trade from four years ago. It's Watson and the Browns against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs for the first time since the trade, the first time they have faced each other. And so I've been doing a lot of digging around how exactly that entire thing went down, the trade that also triggered Baker being traded. It is, it's still, and everybody said everything. I don't even need to talk about, you know, the trade and what it's done to the Browns, but like all the various stakeholders and the butterfly effect are bananas.

41:09Tom Pelissero:And so I'm hoping, but there's no word count on Substack. So I'm just going to do the whole thing and lay it out. And it should be pretty interesting.

41:17Bill Simmons:Oh my God, I can't wait. So when's that, Saturday morning?

41:20Tom Pelissero:Saturday morning, it should be out. Follow it tomorrow night. And yeah, get up, read it with your coffee on Saturday. It's going to be wild.

41:27Bill Simmons:All right.

41:27Tom Pelissero:And you're going to be on Ring of NFL tomorrow? Ring of NFL taping tomorrow as well. And then I think we're doing a chat Sunday pregame on Substack as well. So for the paid subscribers to the new newsletter, appreciate everybody who has jumped on board that already. Come in, ask me all your questions. Know that I suck at fantasy football. But other than that, happy to help on anything I possibly can.

41:50Bill Simmons:The sweep. All right, we're going to take a break, bring in Joe House and do a little Ringer 107 and some gambling talk. Tom Palacero, pleasure as always. Good to see you. Thanks, Bill. You too. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. You know how NFL Sundays work. We have the early slate, then you jump into the late slate, and then Sunday Night Football is the cherry on the Sunday. FanDuel has something for you every step of the way with the Sunday Spectacular. We're talking rewards throughout the day from the first games kicking off all the way through Sunday night. You can hear four of my picks that I did with Joe House on my Thursday podcast.

42:29Bill Simmons:Check out our teasers, by the way, because we have a nice little special teaser section for Ringer 107, and you can jump on those for minus 110 will be the juice up to$50 bets. Wherever the NFL Sunday takes you, keep an eye on the Fando app to see what's waiting for you. It's a full day of football. More ways to get rewarded along the way. Download the app to check out the Sunday Spectacular. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandle. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

43:07Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, You need a plan that fits your unique situation. That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Joe House is here, my friend, since 1988. We thought we were going to do really well last week with all of our picks and stuff. And then a couple teams had some other ideas. We'll get to them later. I wanted to do some mailbag stuff with you.

43:44Bill Simmons:I wanted to go through the week two slate. I wanted to ask you this because I turned on ESPN Today to put on NFL Live, but NBA Today was on. And they were showing Kawhi Leonard. They were showing footage of him in Toronto, like greeting the coach and looking at his locker and just being really happy to be home. And I'm a Celtic fan. I'm not a Clipper fan, but I do know a bunch of Clipper fans. And I don't remember another situation where somebody has left this much wreckage behind. And then it's like, it's great to be here in Toronto. I just think it's so weird. And I don't feel like it's been covered the way maybe it should be covered.

44:23Bill Simmons:What are your thoughts, having no dog in this race at all? It is incredibly weird. The one thing that pops immediately to mind is let's find on the schedule when Toronto is supposed to arrive in LA and play the Clippers. and let's see if we can get a line on whether or not Kawhi actually plays in that basketball game. Oh, he's skipping that one. There is no chance. In the history of load management, that is an absolute lock of the century. Kawhi Leonard won't play in that basketball game. I was thinking how funny it would be if he did come back and play and they do the tribute video and the tribute video is just him in street clothes and all these different outfits and it's like two and a half minutes of just him on the bench applauding teammates, him and like wearing sweatpants and a hoodie.

45:14The internet is better than that. The internet will be giant envelopes. It'll be Daktronics logos. It'll be trees with Uncle Dennis, you know, money trees with Uncle Dennis as the trees grow up. I mean, let the internet just cook with a tribute video.

45:31Bill Simmons:He had some quote where he was like, my kid has been asking me when we get to go back to Toronto. Now we're here. I never heard him mention Toronto for six years. This whole thing is just nuts. It's a farce. I mean, I'm very torn because we, the North, they deserve the positive momentum that they built last season. They deserve to build on that. And it is, you know, this unrequited love that they had for Kawhi because he delivered that championship to them. This is the culmination of that. But he's coming in so filthy dirty. Who's dirtier than Kawhi? How can you feel good about this? He needs like a soak one shower, like the Meryl Streep shower where they had to get the toxic reactor offer.

46:18Bill Simmons:That's how dirty he is. I really don't think that I should go in this direction. But when we were younger. whatever you're going to say when we were younger you know there were situations I'm not saying that I was I don't even know where you're going with this yeah I should probably stop that's good let the listeners wonder I liked women with mixed backgrounds I'll just leave it at that and I'm talking about you know their judgment you know the circumstances I didn't mind that I liked women that were a little bit on the wild side They'll just leave it at that.

47:00Bill Simmons:I sent a long email to the Clippers on Wednesday asking them to release us from our season tickets. Why not? Seems appropriate. Can I read the letter to you? I would love it. Let's hear it. Did you really do this? I did. Two days ago. Oh, this is incredible. This is Bill Simmons. I am emailing you along with my friend, Mike Tolan. I first bought a pair of season tickets for the 2004-05 Clippers season. Almost gave them up in 2010 because the team sucked to the point that it wasn't remotely fun to go. Unless you enjoyed the sounds of dead silence or fans yelling at their own players and coaches.

47:36Bill Simmons:The Lakers had just won back-to-back titles and the Clippers had just drafted Blake Griffin, who proceeded to immediately tear his patella and miss his first season. Because that's what always happened with Clippers. I wanted out. Mike convinced me to keep the tickets, and we've been sharing the tickets ever since. It's been mostly a waste of time and money with very few fond memories. But we both loved the NBA and kept talking ourselves into renewing every year. Mike's a 76ers fan. I'm a Celtic fan. We really kept the tickets to see the other 29 teams while always hoping the Clippers would be confident enough to give us playoff games.

48:10Bill Simmons:Even in the 2020s, after the Clippers traded a future MVP in almost a decade of first-round picks for a monosyllabic grifter who barely played and eventually torpedoed their future, we kept renewing. Obviously because we were stupid. When the Clippers moved to the Intuit Dome two years ago, our ticket reps talked us into a five-year commitment for our season tickets. We were offered 20 % off for the five-year commitment and regretfully, we decided to take the plunge. In retrospect, I'm surprised they didn't offer us some complimentary aspiration stock. And yeah, we agreed well before we learned that the Clippers had been flagrantly breaking the rules with their star player and his rule-breaking uncle.

48:52Bill Simmons:We had no idea the Clippers were about to be handed the NBA version of a death penalty. Last season, our connections within the organization kept assuring us that Pablo's reporting was bullshit and nothing bad would happen to the Clippers. Sure, now we're looking at three more years of a non-playoff team with the weakest future in the NBA. Not just that, but a six-row mid-court view of the single dumbest franchise in the history of the league. Anyway, we want no part of our season tickets. We're officially requesting to A, be let out of the last three years of our commitment, and B, refunded whatever installments we've already paid for year three, if any.

49:30Bill Simmons:When we agreed to a half decade of not inexpensive season tickets, we were under the assumption that the franchise would have a realistic chance to compete and that the team wasn't flagrantly breaking rules to the degree that it would soon receive the biggest punishment in the 80 year history of the league. The Clippers broke their contracts with fans and season ticket holders. So we would like to break ours. We want out of our tickets and we expect to let you to let us out. We didn't sign up for this. Thanks in advance. Bill Simmons and Mike Tolan. Incredible. Standing ovation. I'm sitting, but I think it was the first thing I've written in five years.

50:07What a performance. You were clearly motivated. Yeah. No response yet from the Clippers. You didn't even have to go to legal AI to do it. You just wrote it. It just came right out of your heart.

50:17Bill Simmons:It came right out of my fingers. Yeah. I will say this. There really is genuine legal ramifications to this situation, especially for people in your predicament, you and Tolan. I think there's a good - multi-year contracts under a certain set of assumptions that was immediately broken. There are a bunch of legal theories, fraudulent inducement, where you were induced based on a certain understanding of how competitive the team might be. And instead, it was an abject fraud because they were routinely breaking the rules during the entire tenure of Kawhi Leonard. and they were warned not to do so by the league when they broke the same rules with DeAndre Jordan.

51:03So I don't know. You might hear from some lawyers. You might want to get your... You're going to have some incoming emails, some incoming calls. I wouldn't be surprised if there's already something afoot in terms of class action. I'm sure we're not the only ones.

51:19Bill Simmons:Right. Look, I certainly wouldn't expect anyone to feel bad for us. Doesn't really matter ultimately. I just don't want to go to the games and I don't want to go to Clipper games anymore. And I don't think we should have to. I'm bummed. I want to see that stadium at some point when I come out. It's still desirable to try it one time. They're going to need to fumigate the Kawhi aspiration stink out of it. It's going to be like when you have a flood in the basement and you get that musty smell. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. we've seen some legendary athletes don the number four jersey.

51:58Bill Simmons:Now I can't name names, but you guys know who I'm talking about. In fact, if you look at my studio, there's a framed picture of one of my favorite number fours. He played hockey. Anyway, you know what else is game changing for? PayPal paying for no fees, no interest, no impact on your credit score, just the flexibility to pay the way that works for you. And it's available at millions of online stores, PayIn4 with PayPal. Subject to approval, learn more at paypal.com slash payin4, PayPal Inc, NMLS 910457. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes?

52:43Bill Simmons:Post-workout recovery is a big factor. Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery. One bottle available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more, do whatever. All right. Some mailbag emails. Taylor from Denver. He talked about how I always have the year from hell team, right? He wants to know why it's not New England this year. He gave some ingredients, including lost the Superbowl to Seattle, then had to play them again in week one, lost again.

53:21Bill Simmons:AJ Brown out for six weeks. Drake May is regressing, he says. Your coach was mired in an affair that was made public. And your owner is kicking Matt Glamour off the Ed Sheeran tour. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2026 year from healthy in the New England Patriots. I mean, it is adding up a little bit. They are on one. What happens if they lose to Pittsburgh the year from healthy on top of all the shit that happened this week? I wonder who are the other candidates? The Rams? The Chargers are certainly a candidate. But they might just suck. I don't even know if that's a year from hell thing. It's not like anything's happened to them.

53:56Bill Simmons:They just might not be good at football. Okay. The Rams traded for Miles Garrett. They traded three first-round picks to Jared Burse, and he has a bum knee, apparently. So they're a candidate. Yeah, they're in the mix. I don't really know who else would be in there. Miami's deliberately sabotaging themselves. Yeah, everyone else is deliberately doing it. So they're not, yeah. I'm worried doing that's a candidate. It's not on purpose for them. San Francisco's always a candidate it because they seem to have terrible stuff left right Griffin H said Gronk went on K Adams today and revealed that no one contacted him about Romeo Dobbs wearing 87 this year is this a big deal or nothing burger do you think if Travis Kelsey retired they would have let anyone wear his number a couple years later so I gotta be honest I watched that whole Pat Seattle game and I'm always bad with jersey numbers but for some reason it never dawned on me that he was wearing Gronk's number.

54:49Bill Simmons:So I'm belatedly outraged about this. I think this is an outrage. This is the best tight end of all time. Why is anyone wearing his number? It's an outrage because it's a desecration. I mean, Romeo should just be shitting in the side of that jersey the way he did with his play. You know, that's the problem with it. It's not that somebody is wearing the number. It's that it's dishonorable. It's a dishonorable. Yeah, that makes it worse. It's like when we started giving like Fred Lynn's number away in the, I don't know, the 90s. And it was always to players that had no business, not that they were going to retire Fred Lynn's number, but it was a little sacred for the kids of the 70s and early 80s.

55:27Bill Simmons:I don't know. I don't think they should have given him 87 and I don't think anyone should wear that. And I think he's the, you know, I think he was the second best player of the entire Belichick Brady dynasty other than Brady. They could have at least given him a little heads up. Let him say his piece, right? Couldn't they have done that? the franchise not a good month for bob craft i'll tell you that much um noah m asks the manning cast seems to be bombing 700 000 viewers in week one this was a story this week but not one of them but i still feel like there's something there is it fixable is it a monday night problem or a manning problem what would the sports are do well there's two issues here one is they went and they splurged for Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.

56:18Bill Simmons:I just feel like if you pulled, I don't know, 100 actual football fans and you're like, how would you like to watch this game? I like Buck and Aikman. I want to watch it with those guys. It's probably my favorite announcing crew. So why would I then want to watch the Manning cast? Which, by the way, I should mention I bet on. And I think the Manning cast is good. I just don't understand why you and I wouldn't watch Buck and Aikman. Yeah, I'm already there. I don't have any interest in Manicast. I liked it when it arrived. It was a good curiosity. The most predictable thing ever. They drove it into the ground.

56:57They overdid it. It should have been a special thing. Three times a year would have been incredible. For bad games. That would have been fine. Yes, yes. And their guests are always very good. I always enjoy the guests. It's always a little awkward because the connections, no, they're not in real time. So you don't, they're not reading each other's body language. They have to wait up a pause. But yeah, the, the, the ultimate point is the one you just made. Those Monday night football games have been on balance bangers. And we just want to hear the best guys, you know, handle the game. Even if, if Troy is talking about, you know, what was this phrase?

57:37one of the best guys in all of football. Oh, the all of football thing. One of the best coaches in all of football.

57:42Bill Simmons:See, I don't think Manningcast should have guests, even though it's interesting to have the guests. I think the way to stand out would be just those two guys chopping it up for three hours. Maybe they feel like they're in different places, so maybe they feel like they can't do that. You're bringing the guests in now, it's like the feed is delayed. I don't know. I'm going to be a dick. I, I, unless Eli has the green light to just let his F flag fly, we'll just go full freak. And he's clearly got that in him. He gets dull. Eli's dull unless he's letting his freak fly. So have Eli drink. That I'm into that.

58:22Sign me up for that. Yes. Whatever it is. We're in, he's in the mode where he's doing double middle fingers that I'm in. Okay. Now, now, but he's lots of times he's not in that frame of mind.

58:33Bill Simmons:I think my bigger thing is it feels like a waste of the opportunity to have these guys do football games. Because it's not, let's be honest, we're not overflowing with awesome color guys for these football games we're watching. You know, and I get Peyton doesn't want to travel and he's making a shitload of money. But I just don't, I don't know if the solution is to have those guys going head to head against Buck and Aikman when we maybe have four broadcast teams total that I'm excited to hear from. I'm just never watching it. Yeah. unless it's a shitty game and there's a guest that I'm interested in.

59:08Ken from Oakdale,

59:10Bill Simmons:love the bit from Cousin Sal about the NFL season doesn't start until Deshaun Watson's first pick. He thinks it should be called Browns Hog Day because he asked if we'd be surprised to know that of the 18 quarterbacks the Browns have started each season since 2000, they've thrown a week one interception 18 times and a week two interception five times and only four times have they made it past week two without an interception. I like Browns hog day and I feel like every year week one, they're going to throw one. That's wonderful. Yeah. Great job. Browns hog day is good. Who authored that? Ken from Oakdale, New York.

59:46Bill Simmons:Great job, Ken. And then got another Browns thing about, I mentioned how they might, the Browns stadium might get knocked down. It did a mailbag thing about this Tuesday. It might have a three decade life and get knocked down without ever hosting a playoff game, which seems impossible, but it's actually going to happen. Rob from Brooklyn reminds us that MetLife Stadium opened in 2010 and the only time they've ever hosted a playoff game with either team was the 9-7 Giants had a four-seat home playoff game that I think they won. They beat Minnesota? They did. They did beat Minnesota. And he said between two franchises occupying that building, it's the only home playoff game that's been held.

1:00:28Bill Simmons:This is 16, 32 years, and they've only had one playoff game. That's almost as amazing as the Cleveland thing, but maybe that'll change this year. I talked about with Rob Mahoney about Justin Herbert being the old nerd king in the NFL, but now Justin, Jordan Love has taken the mantle from him as the nerd king. I do it. And we talked about basketball and whether LaMelo was the nerd king. Got some interesting emails about this. A guy named Adam wrote in and said, it has to be Rudy Gobert. Minnesota traded five firsts for him. He's played off the court repeatedly in the playoffs, but the nerds maintain he's worth every penny.

1:01:05Bill Simmons:He's one of the great rim protectors of all time. He's had the belt for years. It's got to continue to be his. And then Matt M suggested both Thompson twins with a joint belt. Okay. But Kirk Oldsbury, our friend, texted me. KG texted in and said, it's clearly Chet Holmgren. Whoa, okay. Interesting. And I thought, if you're looking at the case of the Justin Herbert nerd king of, like, basically the stat, people, the nerds making excuses for a player pointing to stats but not having the results, Chet in the playoffs last year combined with, like, the advanced defensive stats are awesome for him.

1:01:48And everybody likes him, but the people are also making excuses.

1:01:52Bill Simmons:It's an interesting one. I still... I like it. I think Gobert is better, but I think Chet's, like, the guy in waiting now. Gobert is in a different class altogether. I would put Holmgren and the Thompson twins in the same category, basically. Like, it's a TBD, but certainly trending. Certainly trending for both of them. All three of them. By the way, as I watched NBA Today for like five minutes today, watching the Kawhi stuff in disbelief, they ran on the ticker that Anthony Davis and the Wizards have delayed their extension talks. Fine. Great. it's a prove-it year, and he's ready to prove it.

1:02:32You know how he's been spending his time? With this young group. He went to Vegas with them. He went to LA with them. Anthony Davis is all in for this Wizards team, and the extension will take care of itself in not a dissimilar way from the way that the extension took care of itself with Trey Young. I think that they had an idea. It took care of himself in a fuck-job way. Well, you call it that. But wait till we see Trey Young play some basketball and let him be a leader. We're getting old.

1:03:03Bill Simmons:We're in our mid fifties now. Do you really want to do this for five more years with a 43 and 39 Wizards team? That's overpaying their best two guys. I'm going to be nothing but positive until there's a reason to not be positive about this Wizards team. So you're not going to write a letter like I wrote to the Clippers? I just don't have a lot of winning basketball in my life. Matthew T wrote with Kawhi Leonard off the hook I thought of a fairly easy punishment for him forcing him to consistently answer increasingly specific questions about the Rhode Island football club basically at games and post games like just the reporters would be like so what do you think what do you think of the chances what's your favorite thing you're doing Pawtucket were you encouraged by their performance against Monterey Bay FC a few weeks back.

1:03:55Bill Simmons:Is J.J. Williams untouchable? I don't even know what that means, but that made me laugh. A plus. And then Adam from San Francisco said it's pretty clear now the NBA lottery is not rigged because there's never been a better reason or excuse to rig it than to make sure the Pacers got their pick and the Clippers didn't. But that didn't happen. How is conspiracy bill taking this? It's a pretty good point. if they had a real knowledge by mid-May that the Clippers, that there were a lot of receipts and they did have the ability to swing the lottery, like say they might have from 2010 to 2014.

1:04:41Bill Simmons:This would have been the year to do it. Counterpoint. Okay. Counterpoint. Counterpoint. You and I have talked about this privately. I think in mid-May, the league was not headed in a direction of where they ultimately landed. I think there were additional things that came to light from mid-May all the way up through August. And I think there was a galvanizing effect, an accelerant applied to the situation when the Clippers engineered a report from ESPN about the outcome in advance of the league weighing in. I think it was an extraordinarily arrogant act by the Clippers. It was an act of aggression.

1:05:33and they got exactly what they deserved as a result yeah i'd love to know what happens if

1:05:38Bill Simmons:they just don't do that you and me both brother you and me both by the way they're trying to figure out expansion they're in a weird thing here where the vegas team is over nine billion but seattle it's basically the foleys and they're they're like in the sevens so the the number for Vegas doesn't match the number from Seattle. And I think they're trying to figure out what they did. Why does it have to? I don't know. If I were them, I would be like, hey, somebody bid nine for Vegas and seven for Seattle. Let's go. They're different places. I wonder... I think it's fine. If you read between the lines of some of the stuff they said, I wonder if they're going to stagger this and do Vegas first and have 31 teams and then try to get it to boost.

1:06:24Bill Simmons:Because what's really happening here is there's so much rich guy money right now that they're banking on, you know, there's probably like what, 200, 250, 300 new people that because of investments and different things have the money. Right. SpaceX and AI. Name whatever that it's like, oh, this is my chance now to be cool and own my own thing. And I think they're just banking on the supply and demand thing. And maybe they can be patient then they should just wait. There's no hurry. They don't have to wait with Vegas. They're not doing that. Vegas prices nuts. The one thing they can't get wrong.

1:07:01It better be an owner with the cleanest hands imaginable because the track record of the last four entrants into into this league. It sucks. And I like the guys have been good.

1:07:12Bill Simmons:And I like the Boston guy. I just did. Oh, I got you. Seated. I'm talking about the guy in Portland. I'm talking about the Dallas people. I'm talking about, you know, Ishbia doesn't have perfectly clean hands. it doesn't seem. The guy for the Lakers. Not great. Not great. So does Chelsea Stock. Everyone's pretending he's not going to sell the Dodgers.

1:07:38All right.

1:07:41Bill Simmons:Let's take a break. And then we're going to dive into week two, Bringer 107. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by our friends at NFL Sunday Ticket, my long, long friend of the 21st century. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday all in one place. And since YouTube has officially crowned me their CMO, Chief Multi-View Officer, it's my job to tell you which four games deserve a spot in your multi-view this week. All right, so we're going to go to the one o 'clock ET games. And there's some good ones. The Cincinnati Houston game is the best game of the week.

1:08:21Bill Simmons:That has to be in your multi-view. Patriot Steelers, I think, is going to be fascinating for a lot of different reasons. It's kind of a must-win for the Pats. Steelers won there last year. I would include that one. Green Bay at the Jets. There's going to be rain. What's better for multi-view than weird weather conditions? So I would throw that in there as well. And then Minnesota-Chicago is the fourth one. Just because the Bears offense, anytime they're on the field, you want to know what's going on on a multi-view. So those would be my four. and that's the beauty of multi-view. If you disagree with me on any of those choices, put one of your own things in.

1:08:56Bill Simmons:Instead of flipping channels every two minutes, build your own Sunday slate and you're ready to roll. New users can get NFL Sunday Ticket for eight payments of just$30 a month. Get every game, every Sunday, all in one place with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. New users pay$240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of$30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday Ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refund. Every game day, you show up for your team.

1:09:29Bill Simmons:Now, it's your time. We go V! We go V! Ask your prescriber about Wegovi. Semaglutide Injection 2.4mg, a GLP-1. Call 1-833-4-WEGOVI or visit wegovi.com to view the medication guide and to learn more about Wegovi. Why wait? We. Go. Beat. This episode is brought to you by Paramount+. Let chaos reign. Mobland, the hit crime series from the underworld of Guy Ritchie, is now streaming on Paramount+. The Harrigans are on the brink of uncivil war. As power plays, fractured loyalties, and reckless decisions collide, their fixer Harry is left to clean up the fallout. Don't miss Mobland, starring Tom Hardy, Pierce Brosnan, and Helen Mirren.

1:10:17Bill Simmons:Now streaming on Paramount+. today's ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at fan duel make this your most rewarding season download the fan do app to check out all of our 107 picks and our boosted teaser every week this season did you hit your teaser last week i sure did i sure did as well my bets yes one of my successful wagers yeah um i liked last week a lot more than this week which is kind of sucks because I went two and three last week. If we're talking about bet regrets. Yes, let's hear it. I don't regret the Dallas bet. That Giants thing was one of those. Me either. You had to show me you were going to do that.

1:10:58Bill Simmons:They showed us. I'll take it. Take the L. Denver game, I regretted that day as I was watching the lead up to the game and Arrowhead and the excitement. I was like, oh, fuck. It just... Well, I stayed away. I ultimately did not play Denver because I sat Sunday morning pondering what you're describing. They experienced, like, you know, the way that this Chiefs, with the way the league wants these Chiefs to return, you know, I was like. The holding penalties were unbelievable. Now, granted, I don't know why Denver didn't have the ability to tackle. And this other thing, we need a Twitter account just that tells us what teams didn't care about preseason and hitting anyone.

1:11:43Bill Simmons:I don't feel like I have enough of a handle on that because it felt like there were multiple teams that were just like, yeah, probably should have played our guys more. It's like, oh, thanks. Really? We can call it fake Mike Tomlin because Tomlin made that great point on the Sunday night halftime. Was I with you? No, it was you and Cousin Sal. I could not agree more. He was a goddamn revelation. Let him have 10 minutes. They gave him five minutes, Maria. It was so compelling to hear him. He's outstanding on television And all of his points were like, wow, I'm learning something. This is so good.

1:12:17Bill Simmons:Yeah. And he feels like as he gets more comfortable, he'll have some, I don't give a shit as it keeps going. He definitely didn't give a shit about what he was wearing because I got so many texts from people like, why is he dressed that way? He'll improve. He'll improve. Some trends heading into week two. Week two is a Michael Conrad memorial. Let's be careful out there. There's overreactions every which way. there's road teams off a double digit loss you got to watch out for them spreads very favorable to them dogs under seven after a loss um oh and one teams against each other favorable stuff for the dogs dogs and week two in general have been really good but last last year they were seven and nine the week two teams with three plus days rest like aka the patriots or seattle super favorable with that and then okay the three best coaches after a loss basically this century were peyton and mcveigh and belichick who is now going down in flames with north carolina sadly but um so those are some some some tidbits right to be afraid of uh what's your so i went you went first last week i'm going first this week awesome my favorite game i am not scared off by the Nico Collins hamstring, whatever.

1:13:36Bill Simmons:I just assume he's probably even not going to play that much. Joe Burrow's got some sort of weird back situation. He's been, he made it one week before he was banged up. I just feel like before the season, I would have taken the Texans if this was below three. Kudos to the Bengals. They're definitely, the defense is better. Like Sal and I talked about it Sunday. It's definitely a little improved. I think that the turnovers, the Bucs had in that game were all unforced errors. All of them. All of them were stupid bucks just being dumbasses. Stupid Baker, really? And the Texans defense, which, you know, if you subscribe to the Tomlin thing about defenses take a couple weeks to catch up, that's fine.

1:14:19Bill Simmons:But Buffalo was going to lose. Josh Allen threw them the interception and Lasseter, who's one of the best deep backs in the league, just dropped it. But if he catches it, they're 1-0 and we're talking about the Texans. They also had a fumble in that last drive that they recovered inside their own 25-yard line. There were two turnover-worthy plays on that last drive. And the goddamn Texans got to the nine-yard line with enough time left to score a touchdown and win the game. It was the definition of an either-or game. Yes. Couldn't agree more. And I just like, I like the spot. I like their defense.

1:14:53Bill Simmons:And if I'm wrong about Titsi, I'm wrong. I might be. but under three, I'm taking Houston minus two and a half. So that's my first pick. Great. What's the thing where we piggyback? You're piggybacking me? Oh my God. Are you kidding me? This is your second piggyback. It's two piggybacks. Well, here's the problem though. You and I in agreement, let's, let's try and, and reverse that trend. No, we're good. We're good. We piggybacked on the Cowboys for sure last week. Were there any other piggybacks by us? I don't think so. No, because you definitely didn't take the Colts like my dumbass. You know what I forgot?

1:15:31Bill Simmons:Well, yeah, the Colts, I didn't like it. Gee, many Christmas. The one thing I thought that I wish I'd put more thought in with the Giants, because for the season, I didn't like their chances because I didn't think Dart and Scatterbow would stay healthy. Yeah. But they were healthy in week one. And, you know, I was putting too much faith in the Cowboys to fix their defense with all these new guys. But I really regret not taking Arizona. I loved Arizona the whole week. And I ended up being a fucking coward about it. I didn't think they were going to win, but I just thought that game was going to be close and I choked.

1:16:05Bill Simmons:All right, so you're piggybacking my Houston pick. Sure am. That's one of the ones I have here. You can count on it. Nothing moved me off my priors with Houston. That was a 50-50 game. It was an awesome game. I quite enjoyed it. It was unexpected. I loved the innovation by the Bills. They're like, you know what we're going to do? We're just going to go deep. we're gonna go deep we're gonna keep going deep we're not gonna run the ball we're just gonna throw it the F down the field with Josh Allen I loved it it was great I like Houston at home me too I like the fact that their own one and not 1-0 I think is good for this they need the game more and uh and I like their special teams I just me too I think they win by three at least me too alright so now I'm up I have my second pick

1:16:52Bill Simmons:heavy rain for jets packers looks like a 95 % chance of heavy rain

1:17:02Bill Simmons:i just thought green bay losing that minnesota i think green bay's not going to be good this year i watched that whole game i don't think they can run the ball at all um the offensive line is people are going to blame the Flores and the 78 % blitz, but I also don't think the offensive line is good. It's not. I don't think they have a pass rush. Carson Wentz, who looked broken down and looked like he might not finish the game, was somehow zinging it around. The LaFleur thing, him going 0-2 feels right to me. I actually like the money line, too, for the Jets. I think they can win the game. I don't understand the line house.

1:17:43Bill Simmons:it's plus three and a half jets at home. I don't understand the line. I don't understand how you forget about jets killing the Titans. Cause the Titans might be terrible and that's an overreaction game. I don't understand how people after watching Packers, Minnesota would think the Packers are better than the jets. I know if it's Patrick's out, I know there's some secondary stuff with the jets, but I just, to me, this is a pick them. So why wouldn't I take three and a half? The look ahead for this game. Cause I wanted to see some line movement based on week one results. was Packers by five and a half.

1:18:16And I guess the market is like the most we can move this by is just the two points that it's down to now, the three and a half. But I wouldn't be surprised, man, if as the weekend comes in and Jets Nation really gets going, you're making a lot of good... I was skeptical of two teams and one of my strongest positions coming into this season when we talked about the NFC North I had Green Bay finishing fourth in that division. I made a bet on that. I had Green Bay way under their win total. I had Green Bay to miss the playoffs. I had them under and to miss the playoffs as well. I feel pretty good.

1:18:55I feel pretty validated. And I won't talk about the Kansas City Chiefs, who was the other team that I was skeptical of. But this Chargers, I mean, this Packers team is in rough straits.

1:19:05Bill Simmons:So here's the thing. Heavy rain. You're going to have to run the ball at least a little bit. This Jacobs thing is a massive deal that they don't have him. They're running backs that they have. Lloyd and the other guy. Like, come on. And you have a bad offensive line to begin with. You have three receivers. The one place they have that advantage is the explosives in the receiver room. And they used those to great effect against Minnesota when they were 22-10. I mean, Watson looked awesome. It was such an awful loss. And it does feel like this LeFleur thing is now in the air. and I just feel like on Sunday night they're going to be 0-2 and Sal and I are going to be like, what happens now?

1:19:47Bill Simmons:This team's 0-2. They just lost to Carson Wentz and Geno Smith. Now what? That's bad. So I am going to take Jets plus 3.5 and I wanted to grab it now instead of waiting until Sunday because I think that line's going to go down and the under will go down. I like the under in that game too but that's where I'm going for my second one. What do you got? I am just going right back to the well with the Denver Broncos. They're laying less than a field goal at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are entering this game on a 9-0 run, both straight up and against the spread in regular season games.

1:20:27Nothing but immense respect for Liam Cohen and Duval. They did exactly what they were supposed to do against the Browns. They kicked ass. They didn't have to really reveal anything. They barely blitzed at all against the Browns. But this is just going back to, you mentioned it, Sean Payton coming off of a loss. The Broncos, if they are to achieve anything that's similar to, now I only had them winning 10, 11 games most, but their win total was 9.5. The market was accurate about that. If they're going to do that, then it needs to be this defense who set a record If I'm understanding it correctly, the Action Network guys had this.

1:21:13They had 248 missed tackle yards. I saw this.

1:21:18Bill Simmons:I saw this on social media. Yeah. It felt worse. It felt like it was 500. Well, the most in NFL history. That's kind of important. Yeah. And they were dominant in terms of defending Mahomes, but that was the wrong guy to defend. It didn't matter. If you can't tackle Kenneth Walker, his yards after contact were incredible. They couldn't knock him off of his center in any way, shape or form. The duos, it was a reminder. And this is what I regret with the Chiefs. Andy Reid was in his bag. And Andy Reid and Biennemi, like those guys were ready for week one football. Yeah, they were like, we have now reinvented ourselves and here's what we did.

1:22:02Bill Simmons:Yeah. Well, there was a ton of talk this week, stuff written, people talking about podcasts about the quarterbacks being under center, more play action, more running, bigger teams. This is stuff McVay did a year ago, and some of the smarter teams are already doing it. And I wonder, can you keep taking teams by surprise with that? If I'm the Rams, I'm playing the Giants this week. Now I know what's coming. If I'm playing the Chiefs, same thing. It felt like the Broncos didn't know, were kind of like taken aback. Like, oh, you're playing this way? What's going on? And then Walker was great. He was fantastic.

1:22:42He was amazing. Yeah. They set him up for explosives.

1:22:45Bill Simmons:So you're taking Broncos minus two and a half? I'm laying the two and a half with the Broncos at home against Jacksonville. Just an early season altitude game for the Jags. Just that tough situation. And, you know, at some point regression in terms of these regular season games. And I think the true identity of Denver comes out this week and they get over quickly the stench of the week one bad performance. So I have two fears with the Broncos. One is I didn't like their run game at all and it doesn't feel like they've settled on anybody. And it was just this rotating group of dude. It almost felt Chiefs-like to me.

1:23:25Bill Simmons:That wasn't great. Here's why I stayed away from this from a Broncos standpoint. What was it? Early December, late November last year, the Jags went in there and they curb stomped them. They did. They kicked their ass. I do really feel like there's something about that. When you go back to a place where you kicked ass, that you get this added little bit of a hop in your step. Swagger. It's funny. I have this game in my tees, but I have it the opposite way. I get it. Sure. The plus two and a half up to plus eight and a half. That makes sense. I had the Jags up to eight and a half because I think they could win.

1:24:01Bill Simmons:And even if they can't win, there's cheap touchdown potential. The third thing I didn't like about that game, and I didn't really get a good answer for one or the other, the Chiefs-Broncos game, I thought Bo Nix looked terrible. He looked awful. And I don't know if he's healthy. And I actually thought it could have been worse than what the damage was. And this is something Sal's been talking about the whole offseason. Like, we talk about Mahomes coming back. Why don't we talk about Bo Nix? I thought Bo Nix looked awful. And I don't know. The Jags defense obviously isn't great. He's had another week.

1:24:31Bill Simmons:But I think there's a chance he might just not be good for the first month of the season. And this Jags team, I know they're on a hot streak. And if you go through it, it's pretty shaky. Except for the time they went into Denver and fucking housed them. Kick their ass, yes. So I'm going with them as half of my teaser link. That makes sense. And I don't have a strong counter for the Bo Nix proposition. It's just there was quite a bit of this Jekyll and Hyde performance out of Bo Nix last season. Right. And he in unexpected places against very good teams came through with some some outstanding performances and then looked like shit, you know, the very next week.

1:25:13I mean, I'll never forget the international game against the Jets where it looked like, you know, he couldn't throw the ball four yards down the field. But he did go into Philadelphia and come back against them and beat them in the fourth quarter. He did go into Houston and beat them in the fourth quarter. So do you know what the other leg of my tease is? It's got a box down to two and a half. Yeah. Yeah.

1:25:40Bill Simmons:Yeah. Yes. Yes, sir. You have to. Listen, we talked about this a week ago. We said, almost getting emotional, running out of time to bet against Deshaun Watson in an NFL football game. He came out of the gates. He was just abjectly horrific. They were down 24-0 in five minutes. He padded his stats late. He had a great throw to Denzel Boston for a touchdown where it was like, whoa! And then you look at the bottom and it was 34-3. They're down when he hit Denzel Boston. this is it. This is our last chance to bet against this guy. Yes. And if he's going to beat my tease of bucks down to minus two and a half with Jags plus eight and a half, God bless him.

1:26:21Bill Simmons:I don't think he will. And I don't think we'll ever see him quarterback another team after this week. This will be not agree more. Uh, and I have to figure out the, the money line parlays that I'm going to put the bucks into. Cause it's going to be several. I mean, I just have to, you have to be careful. I guess it's going to be, you know, something like the Niners and the Bucs. And I don't know. There are many, very many 13 point teases for you. So probably UCLA in there. Probably. So my fears with the Bucs, their defense really was bad against Cincinnati. I didn't feel like they had the kind of pressure and I can't tell.

1:27:00Bill Simmons:That's the problem. We always talk about week one to week two, what did we learn from week one? And you could go door A or door B with what we learned. So it's like, do the Bengals now have a really good offensive line or did we overrate the Bucs front seven? So we're going to find out this week. One way or the other. It's the same thing with Arizona and the Chargers. Does Arizona have actually a good offense with the floor and the weapons they have and multiple good running backs? Or do the Chargers just suck, right? After week two, I'm going to have an answer for that. So for this one, I'm a little scared of the Bucs defense, but what am I going to be scared with the Browns?

1:27:39Bill Simmons:They can't block and they have a terrible quarterback. If you're looking for the silver lining, remember the Bengals had four field goals. He had multiple 50-yard plusers. They had a pick six. McPherson, and they had, right, exactly. So a defensive touchdown plus four field goals, that's 19 of their 33 points. So if you're looking for... There was bad pressure rate stuff with the Bucs. Yes, there was. I think they were like seven for 40 or something. Yes. Where do you stand on this Havoc stat? I like it. I think it's informative. Yeah, so they released the top week one NFL defenses in Havoc. Who do you think the number one defense was?

1:28:26Bill Simmons:In Havoc. You would think the Vikings, right? because they were second. They were not first. Oh, I might guess the Jets. It was the Las Vegas Raiders at 56%. Now they're playing Miami, and that was why. The Cardinals were third, which is either a good sign for them or a terrible sign for the Chargers. Coming up last was the Titans at 16%, and coming up second to last was the Chargers at 19%, which goes in line with everything we saw from that, uh, that terrible performance. But yes, the reason I mentioned that the bucks were, uh, 21st, not, not awesome. We're creating a lot of havoc. I thought they would do better.

1:29:18Bill Simmons:All right. So my tease is, bucks Jags. What do you have for your third pick? Uh, I I'll, I'll just share my tease, um, before I get to my fourth, um, I'm going into Nashville because I feel like that situation with Salah and Daybol, they have a quarterback problem. I mean, I don't know how much more we need to see. If you go into the numbers, the second-tier numbers for Cam Ward, he is missing open receivers. He's missing them badly. This happened last year, too. He's not, like, even when he has time, he's bad. They don't give him time. They can't establish the run. And the defense was an abomination against a Jets team with, you know, a middle-of-the-road offensive line.

1:30:10Maybe it's better than we're giving it credit for. Brees Hall had a day for sure.

1:30:15Bill Simmons:There were some good offensive line highlights for the Jets. A couple of Jets fans, because they also have all these tight ends. So they have a couple good linemen, but then they could also bring these different tight ends in. And they were kind of beating the shit out of the Titans. But that might say more about the Titans. I don't know. I think it does. I don't trust the Eagles at all. I watched the entirety of that Eagles-Washington game. Washington absolutely positively had many, many chances to win that game outright. You kind of took it to their O-line, too. Sal and I talked about that Sunday.

1:30:48Bill Simmons:I felt like that was the worst an Eagles offensive line has looked to me. And Dickerson's out now. I mean, he's just, he couldn't, he tried to go. He played, he played poorly. And Washington's new defense got in there and got after their ass. So the way I'm playing this Eagles-Titans game, it's an in-game tease. I am combining, let me pull up the, make sure I get the total correct. Are you cheating? Oh, you're doing both sides. Okay. Yeah, I'm allowed to do it. I'm allowed to tease the Eagles from seven down to one. That's six points. And then I'm teasing the total in that game from 39 and a half up to 45 and a half.

1:31:30So under 45, you win under 45 and a half and Eagles basically to win outright. I don't I can't come up with points in this game. I have I can't have I don't have a scenario under which a defense that feels a little bit, you know, embarrassed by the two touchdowns they gave up in the fourth quarter to Jane Daniels and Washington coming in ready to pin their ears back against an offensive line in Tennessee that's not very good and that can't establish the run and certainly can't throw the ball downfield. And I feel the same way in terms of that offense. That offense really wants to get moving. They were not thrilled with, you know, the Sean Mannion experiment in week one.

1:32:11So I like the Eagles to come in and kick ass, but I am not laying points with this Eagles team until further notice. So Eagles just basically went out right, minus one and under 45 and a half. I don't see the Titans getting to 17 points in this game. I think I'll be lucky to get to 14 points. And I'm fine with like, I win this bet if it's 30 to 14 Eagles.

1:32:32Bill Simmons:We should mention we're doing this thing with FanDuel all season. They're doing minus 110 for the teasers. They're going to put all of our teasers, which they did last week was very cool. And you can just bet on our teaser up to 50 bucks if you like one of them. And you get it at the minus 110 juice. here's why this tease worries me house. I'm listening. It's going to be like 130 degrees and I saw that. Yes, it is. That's one thing. I don't think that gives the Titans an advantage. But go ahead. I just hate the road team and the superhuman. Maybe it doesn't give anyone an advantage. It helps your under.

1:33:10Bill Simmons:It makes me like the under more. Exactly. But I thought the Eagles looked terrible. I, I, and you know, I, I really, my number one regret of all of the whole off season was being too anti Harbaugh and not being more kind of thoughtful about the giants. And just the fact that every single year we have a worst to first team in a division. And I've been betting on that year after year. And this was the era. I was like, you know what? We're not going to have one this year. You look at the division. Now Philly's minus one 10 Dallas is plus three 20. The Giants are down to plus 350 for that division.

1:33:48Bill Simmons:Seems fair. You could argue that's still an incredible price. And I don't know if they have less talent than Philly at this point. Philly has just bled out some talent. Their defenses. Wait till they get Jonathan Greener back. I know their defenses. I'm talking about right now where part of the appeal of Philly was like this incredible offensive line. They just don't have it anymore. No, I agree. The offensive line is not incredible. And they have, I thought when I did my roster rankings, they were one of the top four for talent. But when you watch it against Washington, it's like, where is it?

1:34:24Bill Simmons:No. And Cooper DeGene got his ass kicked. One of my pride moments for the week was Saquon over 75 and a half rushing yards. And he got there because he had one 42-yard run. Otherwise, yards per carry was under three yards. The Eagles couldn't establish the run. So if you're looking at Philly, Dallas and the Giants, do you think those odds for those three teams should be closer than minus 110 plus 320 plus 350? And do you think the Giants should be higher than Dallas for odds? Or is that just a week one overreaction? No, I don't think that's an overreaction at all. They should at least be equal.

1:35:03It's crazy that, I mean, the Giants beat Dallas. So they've already gotten a leg up. If they can keep Dart healthy.

1:35:11Bill Simmons:The division outcome. Yeah. and maybe do what the Pats did with Drake May last year, then maybe they could do it. The Giants have a tough schedule. That's part of the reason why I'm skeptical. Yeah, they'd almost have to win this week to get you excited about it. But some other division winners, by the way, the Bills, but we're taping this before the Thursday game, but the Bills are minus 185. Ravens minus 130. Cincinnati's plus 175 for the AFC North. Houston's plus 125. Jags are plus 160. Any of these excite you? I already have exposure to Houston to win their division and Cincinnati to win the AFC North.

1:35:49And I'll stick with the price I have. I have better prices than those.

1:35:52Bill Simmons:This is on Fando. Casey is minus 115 now. Denver's plus 290 and the Chargers are plus 370. And by the way, the Chargers are, I would completely stay away from that. The only thing to bet the Chargers is to miss the playoffs and you have to hold your nose and lay the juice. Detroit's plus 160 for their division the Bears are plus 200 Tampa's still plus 150 for the NFC South which to me seems like a steal and then in the NFC West Rams plus 170, Niners plus 170 Seattle plus 220 that's probably the liveliest of all of them but if you had to bet any of those which one would you bet? right now with those odds I'm trying to think because I already had with those odds let me think about this I have the Niners already close to three to one.

1:36:40So I know that doesn't help me any. I have the Niners. I have Houston. It's got to be the Bucs. The Bucs at plus 150. I'll just keep throwing money at Tampa. I think they're going to be win 10 games this season.

1:36:50Bill Simmons:That price is better after this Cleveland game. Yeah. I think Bears at two to one is fun. Just because they might have, their offense might be the best thing anyone has in that division. I think Giants at plus 350 is a good price still, I think. Go ahead. I think you wait a week. They probably lose to the Rams, right? You wait a week and then you do it. Yeah. You would think that they're going to lose to the Rams. And if they don't lose to the Rams, then the price is going to drop and you miss the window. They're going to go on a run after that Rams game. They play Tennessee at home. They play Arizona at home.

1:37:24Now, Arizona might be, you know, we might be talking about the 2-0 Arizona. Then they come to Washington and then they're home against the Saints. So the first chunk of the Giants schedule, super favorable, but then it ramps up. They travel to Houston. They travel to Philly. They get Washington again, home against Jackson. But there's a San Francisco's on the schedule. Seattle's on the schedule. There's a bunch of teams. A lot of flying. The latter half of it, it gets really challenging for them. And if you don't believe that Scadabo and Dart could stay healthy, then, you know.

1:37:56Bill Simmons:I looked at that when I did all my prep in August, and that scared me the most. That second half, like if they didn't have those guys. Right. playoffs Jets are plus 385 do you think they can sneak in the back door and go 10 and 7 I'm not saying they will but just 4 to 1 odds and they might be 2 and 0 after this weekend Dallas is still plus 146 Pittsburgh is plus 148 the Giants are plus 162 to make the playoffs but here was the one that jumped out to me Arizona 9 to 1 oh wow it's really high but man, they were really impressive on Sunday. Like I really didn't feel like it was a fluke. On paper, they have the hardest schedule.

1:38:43Yeah, I get it. I get it. That's why I signed one.

1:38:45Bill Simmons:The no playoffs bets were more interesting to me. Green Bay's minus 180. Chargers are minus 156. Minnesota's minus 120. Denver's minus 106. Jags plus 130. Philly plus 176. Cincy plus 235. And then the Rams plus 245. But I thought that Chargers, if you parlay the Chargers minus 156 with Green Bay minus 180. Okay, okay. I'm in the plus with that. That's like a plus 140. FanDuel lets you do that? That's a nice parlay. I like that one. That's a good one. Are Green Bay or the Chargers making the playoffs? Like right now, I would say no. Nah. I mean, we're overreacting, of course. It's a requirement of this week.

1:39:25Bill Simmons:I didn't like those teams that much to begin with, especially the Packers. Well, Green Bay, I knew. I have all that. I had so much money against Green Bay, like I said. The one thing I did immediately after Monday was bet the Chiefs every which way. I bet them over 10 and a half wins. I bet them to win the division. I mean, these are all shitty prices. But I bet them to win the division. I bet them to get to 11 wins. And I bet them to make the playoffs. Because that was an absolute, like, what a reminder of what Reed and BNME are capable of and Spags with that defense. Especially the secondary.

1:40:02You had BNME. You couldn't stand him. He was not good here. He was terrible. You made fun of him all the time. Yeah, he wasn't good here. It didn't work. It works with Andy Reid.

1:40:16Bill Simmons:My last pick. So we each have done three. Yeah. But we have to do four. Don't do it. What do you think I'm going to do? Tell me. I don't know. Actually, I genuinely don't know, but I'm fearful. Are we allowed to double piggyback? Yeah. There's only one game on the entire slate. I hate this slate. I didn't really like it either. I'm not laying points with Drew Locke on the road. I'm not grabbing points with stupid Danny Dimes. It's like there's so many bad quarterbacks. I'll talk about the three that I almost took. I'm taking the Patriots minus four and a half at home against the Steelers. Yeah.

1:41:00Okay. I don't mind this at all. I could talk myself into it.

1:41:04Bill Simmons:There's incredible numbers for the teams that have three-plus-day rest in Week 2. Yeah. I think they kind of threw people off the scent in Week 1 because of Drew Locke, and then they fell apart in the fourth quarter, and AJ got hurt. I think they had a terrible game plan against the Rams. I mean, against Seahawks. I didn't understand it at all. Henderson is back this week, which ain't nothing. That's huge. They lost to this team a year ago in a game where they turned the ball over five times. It wasn't like Pittsburgh. It wasn't like Jacksonville going into Denver and just housing Denver. Red zone turnovers, too.

1:41:41Bill Simmons:The dumbest fucking loss of the year. And I just think they're not going 0-2. They have too much talent. And watching that Steelers-Falcons game closely, it was funny because Sal and I were talking about how, you know, kind of gross the Steelers' offense was. and there's some Steeler fans that were going, yo, what game, what were you watching? Rodgers was airing it out because Rodgers was throwing like almost nine yards per attempt. But he was trying to get PIs most of the time and he doesn't have the receivers. And his running backs are terrible. Like for whatever their offensive line, like the team just looks slow to me.

1:42:20Bill Simmons:I kind of like Rico Dotto, but I just didn't think Dotto or Warren looked good in that game. And I think the Pats are going to swallow up the run. I think they're going to go after Rogers. I think this is a must win for the Patriots. So we'll see if they lose this game. It's officially the year from hell. I'm not scared of the minus four and a half. I feel like it should probably be a little bit higher. Um, and I just think they win by seven plus. It might not surprise anybody. I might join you Sunday morning with, with the fifth pick. Cause I, I just don't love this slate and I just want to let a couple more days, uh, I don't love it either.

1:42:56Bill Simmons:And I honestly don't love that pick that much, but it was the one that made me feel the safest. I'll go through the other choices after, but that was the one that I was like, I'm going to be mad if I didn't do this. Well, I kind of landed on a similar one and I'm going to take a quick drink of water here. Yeah, we've been talking for an hour straight.

1:43:23same sentiment it's San Francisco laying less than two touchdowns at home against Miami and it might be the case that they should be favored by 17 or something right right we just don't the market doesn't have its arms around how terrible this Miami team is and so I'm just going to go ahead and grab it. They have an incredible rest situation, except for the fact that they were on the other side of the world. I'm scared of that. And they spent a whole week on that other side of the world. Now, they did come home promptly, but every which way, a two touchdown in San Francisco under Shanahan has been good as a double-digit favorite.

1:44:08Not incredible, but good. A winning record as a double-digit favorite. But this is really, I don't know how many more opportunities when Miami is playing a good team that it's going to be less than two touchdowns. And that's really what I'm jumping into with both feet. Chop Robinson looks like he's going to be out. I mean, are you worried about the Miami pass rush anyway? Like, no. And I just love...

1:44:30Bill Simmons:Their defense is awful. It's awful. It's like really awful. I actually thought Vegas could have had more stuff. And eventually they were just trying to shut down Gente and there was so much open for them passing-wise, but they had cousins and terrible receivers. The Niners do not have terrible receivers. If Shanahan wants to run the same kind of offense that they just did against the Rams, I don't see why they can't repeat what they were doing. Very fast, very of tempo, short yardage. I looked at it because it's almost like if you're using college football logic, you just have to treat this like this is Ohio State at home against some shitty team and they should be favored by 28.

1:45:09Bill Simmons:Miami is awful. And there's a real chance Miami doesn't win a game for a while. I just was freaked out by the Australian trip. I don't know if they're going to be zombies for that entire game. I'm not worried about a backdoor cover. Famous last words. But that's the one thing I felt best about. So the ones I looked at really closely. I can't believe neither of us have the Panthers. I'm a little scared of Penix playing in that game. Because I don't love Penix. Yeah. But at least he's not Tua or Cooper Rush or whoever the other guy is. And, you know, he's not good. I'm not saying he's good. No, you have dueling trends, though, with that game.

1:45:49You have the Panthers, who are 0-9 in their last nine games against the spread as a favorite. Yeah. Versus 9-0 in their last nine games coming off of a loss. Well, but then you have two. Which is it?

1:46:02Bill Simmons:You have more trends because you have the two 0-1 teams take the dog. You have the home dog in a divisional game. Yeah. You have... I honestly didn't think Atlanta looked that terrible. I was very nervous watching that Pittsburgh game. They missed two field goals that might have changed things a bit. Their offense definitely moved the ball. Their defense is bad. It's a bad defense. And the Panthers put up 37... They did. 37 points against the Bears, and it could have even been more than that. But anyway, I just couldn't do it because the Panthers' defense was so bad. what's worse than you take the Panthers minus TUNAP and it's like, oh, B.J.

1:46:39Bill Simmons:Robinson is third touchdown day. Stay away. So the second one is also NFC South. Saints plus eight and a half against Baltimore. You know, Flowers is out. The rookie's out. Lane's out. This whole off explosive crazy offense is going to be a little different. I couldn't get over the OT game with the Saints and the fact that they were down 20-0 even before or 24-0, whatever it was. 21-0. I was going to get it right if I kept mentioning scores. And they kind of rallied back late. I love the cheap touchdown potential here. This might end up being my fifth pick when we get to Sunday, but I didn't want to do it now, and I want to see who's healthy for this one.

1:47:24The crazy thing is, if Harbaugh was still the Ravens coach, I would like this a lot more. I would really like the backdoor. The week two soft spot for the Ravens after coming out. We've seen them lose this game.

1:47:36Bill Simmons:We've seen them blow tees. I think it's a stay away. The Raiders. The problem I have with this game is this is, by a long shot, by quite a bit, the best defense that Tyler Shuck will have played against in his entire NFL career. He's never seen a defense as talented as this defense. And he might not even be good. And Matabouke is supposed to be playing in this game. And, okay, so, I mean, that's why I didn't do anything with it. But I understand the instinct in terms of grabbing the Saints. And we also have a, we might have an NFC South situation where when they actually play good teams, they just get their asses kicked.

1:48:09Bill Simmons:The third one I really wanted to do, and if it was seven and a half, I would have done is Raiders against the Chargers. Raiders plus six and a half. It's in LA. I think there's going to be a lot of Raiders fans there. And I don't think the Chargers are good. But I was really trying not to do the double overreaction pick in week two. see the Chargers who couldn't have looked worse and the Raiders who played the Dolphins who actually look okay better than we thought and I couldn't get there I wish this was eight and a half but there's a reason it's six and a half because the Chargers look terrible so I end up staying away I might end up talking myself into it on Sunday if it gets to seven I don't want to have anything to do with it I do think that if uh mixed tape Mikey and this Chargers offense are going to get right.

1:49:00It will come under these circumstances. Even with McConkie, he's out, out, right? He's definitely out.

1:49:06Bill Simmons:It seems like he's out. Cards, Seahawks was another one because Cards are four and a half underdogs at home. Yeah. But the Seahawks have 10 days rest. Cards do it again and I'll back you. Yeah. Drew Locke on the road. Yeah. I tried to talk about it. I test drove it. I couldn't get there. And then the last one. Rams 7.5 against the Giants. Interesting. I thought long and hard about the Rams and the Tees. Thinking like, are they really going to go 0-2? And it's weird. I couldn't get there because I kept playing the game out in my head. And there was this scenario where the Giants just bullied their front seven without Miles Garrett and without Donald.

1:49:50Bill Simmons:Because I don't think, if Donald plays, he plays 25 snaps. I don't even think we're a Sam and I could just kind of want to watch the game and not have anything on it was where it landed I like that I'm glad that you landed there I'm not going to bet on this game I will not be talking myself into the Giants even though that was the direction I would head the question is can they play the same kind of ball control that they played against Dallas they just didn't let Dallas possess the ball right Dallas is a numbers idiotic too I mean dumbass shit same old cowboys Holy cow. I'm thrilled as a Washington fan.

1:50:25I'm thrilled to see Dallas be as dumb as ever and incapable of responding to basic NFL defensive adjustment. So funny. Chef's kiss. Immaculate performance. But the problem with the Giants is their secondary is really bad. And we might see Matthew Stafford just get going.

1:50:46Bill Simmons:So the one you're leaning toward on as, cause we're going to do Sunday picks that we put on social about two hours for the game. The one you're leaning toward is what? It's a decent chance. It's the Pats. I don't like taking all these home favorites, but I look at the dogs and I'm, I can't bet on Carson Wentz. I can't bet on, on Daniel Jones. I can't bet on, on, you know, Drew Locke as a favorite, as a road favorite. Like, I just, we're already into this, this shit sandwich in terms of these quarterbacks. I can't have anything to do with the Carolina game. I mean, just don't want to have anything to do with it.

1:51:22It's not crazy that I would land on Bucs. I might get myself to there with the Buccaneers. Eight and a half. Eight and a half is so many points. Just a farewell to Deshaun. Yes. Yeah. I might get there.

1:51:32Bill Simmons:I looked at the Chiefs minus six and a half for a little bit because I thought Jones looked so bad last week. He's immobile. I don't see that getting better. He's coming off of, yeah, he can't move. And he can't put weight on the foot and throw the ball down the field. Shocker, he's coming off an Achilles. You know who else didn't look good? Patrick Mahomes. That's why I stayed away. Patrick Mahomes was bad last week for actually throwing the ball. He had some good scrambles, but he was not good. And got bailed out by a lot of the yards after the catch stuff. All right, so you're leaning pats for your fifth pick.

1:52:04Yeah.

1:52:06Bill Simmons:Oh, man. I'm probably leaning toward the Panthers. I'll talk myself out of it. God, you know what? I might be leaning toward the Raiders. Can that line get to seven for me? That would be wonderful. Um, and then I'll be leaning. I'm going to, uh, I'm going to UCLA, the UCLA Purdue on Saturday. I forgot to tell you. Super fun. Uh, can't wait to lay some points with that. I feel like they should bring me out like in a, like a chariot. I think you bring you out like Hannibal Lecter. They can bring me out however you want. That sounds great. Play the silence of the Williams music. All right. So our final picks for Ringer 107.

1:52:48Bill Simmons:Week two. What did you go for? What did you go in week one? Two and three. Me as well. Let's hope it's not a pattern. We both have the Texans minus two and a half at home against the Bengals. You have the Broncos minus two and a half against the Jags. I have the Jags in a tease up to eight and a half with the Bucks down to minus two and half against Deshaun Watson because it's our last weekend to bet against Deshaun Watson. You have the Niners minus 13 and a half absolutely blowing out the Miami Dolphins. Probably a good pick. I have the Jets in a rainstorm plus three and a half at home against the Packers trying to go to, you know, you have a tease Eagles minus one with the under in that same game 45 and it's going to be 145 degrees at that game.

1:53:33Bill Simmons:And then last but not least, I have the Patriots in kind of a must win at home against the Steelers with 10 day rest and a lot of good trends for extra rest. Patriots minus four and a half against the Steelers. And that is the Ringer 107. It was brought to you by FanDuel. Download the app now to find all of our Ringer 107 picks. Make this your most rewarding season. It's really cool. You click on it. All of our teases are there. some of our favorite picks. Fando, play your game. Odds subject to change. We are a month away from NBA season. I'm getting ready. Just pointing out, you ready for prep?

1:54:15Bill Simmons:I sure am. Zach's claiming that he's not flying out to do the over-unders with us, but I think he's going to be on the TV. So it'll be the two of us together and then Zach on a TV like he's Dr. Evil. We'll make it work. He was Dr. Evil against the Sacramento Kings. He really pissed him off last year. Let's see who he picks for his Dr. Evil. I mean, that clip lives on. I actually, in retrospect, he probably wasn't harsh enough. He could have dialed it up a little extra. All right, House, we can watch you on Ringer Wise Guys, a fantastic show, on Friday, 11 a.m., live on Twitch. The full breakdown of the entire NFL slate.

1:54:55Bill Simmons:Yeah, yeah, yeah. What are we doing? Come on. with Sal and Dabundo and Raheem. Say hi to those fellas for us. Thanks to House. Thanks to Tom Pellicero as well. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo and Chris from behind the scenes for us. New Rewatchables coming on Monday. And we did Law Abiding Citizen. Jamie Foxx, Gerard Butler. An action movie that's really gained some steam. A few laughs. Yeah, it's really, this movie's really something. And so stay tuned for that. It's on Netflix. If you haven't seen it, um, that's it for the pod. Good to see you house. Good times, buddy.

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