Eagles Spit Takes, Week 1 NFL Picks, and a Possible Clippers Scandal With Joe House

22:10Bill Simmons:The anchor parlay. Yeah, we're going to do some anchor parlays. You're right. That's how we do it. And your no sweat bet can be used on any NFL wager type, and if it doesn't win, you'll get bonus bets back. House and I are about to share our favorite bets as part of the Ringer 107 this season. make Fandle your go-to app for any snap. Visit Fandle.com slash BS to kick off the NFL season with a no sweat bet every game day during week one. Play your game. Fandle, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus president in select states or 18 plus president in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming.

22:42Bill Simmons:Opt-in required. Refund issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Max refund unless otherwise specified$5. Restrictions apply including token expiration. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE. or visit rg-help.com, call 1-88-79-7777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Parents, if there's one thing you deserve to make it easier on yourself, it's back to school season. I know that's how I feel as well. On Uber Eats, you can get up to 40 % off back to school essentials like notebooks, pencils, calculators.

23:20Bill Simmons:You got lunch boxes to fill, get discounts on fresh fruit, juice boxes, string cheese, and more. Get everything you need for back to school delivered right to you just to tap away in the Uber Eats app. Offer ends September 16th. See app for details. House and I, we just talked about Eagles Cowboys. We have now traveled back in time, Marty McFly style, to break down the rest of the week one slate. You were on the, man, I loved you and Dabundo and Sal on Ringer Gambling Show on Wednesday. I was power walking around LA. It was 130 degrees and little, little young to bundo. It was like watching a little kid at the Thanksgiving table with his, with his uncles, just being so excited.

24:03Bill Simmons:It was, the vibe was great. I just loved it house. That's so nice of you to say, I'll say for me, it felt like the three of us have been pals for, you know, 30 years. Like then the bundo fit in seamlessly. It gave a nice energy to the old guys, me and cuz, but yeah, man. the thing that the three of us have in common dirty gamblers I mean we are going to get filthy on these Wednesdays, you got it. That's what the only idea I sent you guys was let's get weird the last segment should just be the weirdest bet you actually might make during the week and we're going to talk about a ton of bets right now, so we're in this Ringer 107 contest that it's going to be our show against the fantasy football show, the Thursday Ringer gambling show the Friday Ringer gambling show and then Shiel Kapadia solo Unabomber style on Friday.

24:51Bill Simmons:It's just on his pod. I love that. And we're picking five games a week and then 17 games during the playoffs. It's 107 picks total. We are apparently favored on FanDuel to win this contest house. With good reason. I mean, I'm giving a standing ovation to FanDuel. They understand. Old wise guys just doing great. We're going to go through the whole slate. And I want to initially go through the stay away bets. because there are a few of them. What we did was, House and I, you're going to have one, I'm going to have two, and we're going to agree on two. And that's going to be our five. One of those is going to be a parlay.

25:28Bill Simmons:But I really, this gives us a chance to go through the entire slate. And there's some stayaways. But there's some, I'm really surprised how much I like the slate. Do you find as you look at it, and maybe we've just been staring at these teams for four, five months, but I feel like I have a really good handle this week. How about you? So I totally agree. One of the things I found myself doing this week was reconsidering some. I had strong conviction at the beginning of the week. The line started like too, like too strong. Well, this is the concern. Some of the lines started moving in the direction against the sides that I, that I, I like, you know, the price got, got more expensive.

26:07So yeah, I was like, damn it. I don't, if, if everybody is betting in the direction that I want to go, like the Ravens went from underdogs to, to, to favorites over the course of the week. There was a half point added to the Jags and the Panthers over the last couple of weeks. There's more examples. Everybody is on the Giants. That line is all the way down to five and a half. It was seven early in the season.

26:29Bill Simmons:That was going to be one of my picks. I thought we were going to be able to get Giants plus seven and a half. Now it's basically under six. Yeah, it's five and a half right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook. So I got nervous. And as a result, when we have this conversation about what we end up with, I just went back to some of the hits, man. And I'm like, who can I trust? What quarterback and coach can I trust to get the job done in week one, Bill Simmons? I'm so excited that we're going to be aligned this year. I did million-dollar picks for a while. It was fun. The figures were confusing. I felt like at any time I could game the system.

27:02Bill Simmons:This is just pure. We're doing 107 picks, and we want to get to 60 wins. I want to go 1647. I would take 1647 right now. Would you? Really? It's an incredible outcome. What do you mean you would take that? Of course you would take that. It really takes 65 and 42, but 60 and 47. Buddy, that's an amazing outcome, 60 and 47. I'm shooting for the stars. All right. No reason not to. All right. Stay aways. I have six. Browns, Bengals. The Browns are in Cleveland. That just made you like spasm and hit your mic. Browns are in Cleveland. Bengals notoriously suck in the first two weeks of the season. I'm not sold in their defense.

27:44Bill Simmons:Neither are you. Browns plus five and a half. There's a lot of good home underdog division that like, do you, you know, all the bets, the home underdogs at home for week one are like 23 and seven. I'm not taking the Browns. I just crossed this one off because if I had to bet, I would take the Browns. I'm crossing it off. So you agree with that, correct? Totally fair. And I do agree. I think the one thing that, um, especially councils in favor of caution is what if the Browns defense is like the defense that they had at home in 2023. Right. Remember that? And the Browns know the Bengals. They give the Bengals a hard time.

28:23There are a lot of reasons in favor of the Browns. And yet, we're not betting on the Browns in week one. Just not going to do it. Not betting on the Browns.

28:31Bill Simmons:If there was a bet, I'm just not betting on the Browns. I'm not betting on Joe Flacco. Nothing. If there was a bet I would do, I would do like an alt high Bengals, like Bengals winning by like 20 plus. One of those. I get it. The Bengals are just blowing them out. And it's like 35 to 7. It's like, oh, the Bengals, here they are. But I'm not going near that game. Well, it feels like if you're going to do that, do that, or bet the Browns on the money line. Yeah. Stay away from this straight up. Next one is your team, the Washington Seawards. They're playing the Giants. They're home. The line has moved two points.

29:08Bill Simmons:I love the Giants. Now I'm scared. There's some, not positive the Giants are 100 % healthy for this one either. and there's a lot of people on the bandwagon. It's one where I like the Giants being better than people think. I have Washington being worse than people think, but now this feels silly now. I don't know how your team's giving less than six points. Right, and I've said on this very podcast that I am very afraid of this particular matchup. Jane Daniels was good last year against the Giants, but Washington beat the Giants last year by three points and by five points. And the three points was in week two when the Giants did not have a field goal kicker.

29:51And as a result, had to go for it on fourth down. Yeah, and that's the reason that Washington won that game.

29:58Bill Simmons:I would probably do Moneyline plus 220 Giants in the under. 45 and a half, some sort of parlay if I played this game. But I think it's an official stay away. I don't like how many people are on the Giants. Next one is Colts Dolphins, which is just automatic as a stay away. I don't want to bet on the Dolphins. I don't want to bet on Daniel Jones. The line's one and a half that the cousin I called the TikTok zone. Tyreek Hill, there's some bleak stuff with him where he's limited at practice. Again, I want to see... This is one of those where I want to see both teams. I want to know what's going on with the Dolphins D-backs.

30:34Bill Simmons:I want to know what's going on with their offensive line. I want to see, is that Ollie Gordon going to be awesome for Miami? I want to see, how are they going to use Daniel Dimes? Is Tyler Warren just going to be awesome? Are they going to be able to throw the ball? I'm probably not going to see a lot of it because I don't know if this is making a multi-view for me. Maybe watching the highlights. Yeah, seems like a good one for the highlights. This is a stay away, correct? A thousand percent stay away. My lean would be Miami because I think that Schrager made a nice point, a nice observation. Not only that nobody believes in this, which is, you know, funny, but what they're returning on defense in terms of the front seven, Jalen Phillips and Chubb, whatever condition they're in, they're healthy this year at least.

31:19Whatever they have in the tank, that's formidable. But I think you're right. Let's just stay the F away from that game.

31:25Bill Simmons:I'm going to bold all these leans, and maybe we'll find out a couple weeks from now that we should have done the leans instead of the actual picks. This next one almost made the cut for me. It's the Falcons plus one and a half against Tampa. and Tampa's a team you and I both like, but Tampa's just really banged up. It's another one. It was two and a half all the way up until this week. And now everybody's looking at Atlanta getting points at home in a divisional underdog kind of situation. And it's down to one and a half. I lost my enthusiasm for it. I like Atlanta in this game. I do too. Cuz and I talked a lot about how wait on Tampa, let them stumble a little bit in September with all the injuries they have.

32:10Bill Simmons:and then maybe bet on them for division. That's right. Columbus Day weekend range. I just don't want to bet the Falcons, and I kind of want to see them. Penix has started four games, and he didn't play in the preseason. And Raheem Palmer's been all over the quarterbacks that didn't make any appearances in the preseason and what the historical numbers are in terms of that. And that lines up for another sort of basis for staying away from this game. I mean, they come out rusty. Those quarterbacks tend to come out rusty. No left tackle for the Bucs for this game. Worfs is out, but I think he's come back for week two, unless something changes over the next couple days.

32:49Bill Simmons:And then the right tackle for the Falcons gone for the year. Right. Too many red flags all over the place. Plus, NFC South is just a complete stay away.

33:00Bill Simmons:Rams, Texans. This is now Rams minus three. There's been some Rams money. I think it's because the Texans have had some, like Kirk looks like he's going to be out. Nobody knows what the Texans running backs. And it feels like Stafford's playing and it feels like the left tackle for the Rams is playing too. My lean would be the Texans and especially with the points because I think their defense is the best unit in the field. But I don't want to bet against McVay. Another stay away. Well, the reason to bet against McVay is, you know, historically, he and the Rams have had slow starts to the season.

33:38So if you wanted to talk yourself into the Texans, I was prepared to bet the Texans. I have bet the Texans already in a teaser. I had the Texans and the Broncos in a nice teaser. Of course, teasers are too expensive over the course of a season to make it worth your while. But I bet it, you know, over the summer. and I prefer the Texan side, but this injury situation, too many unknowns. Let's just watch them play football.

34:05Bill Simmons:Stafford, I feel a lot of kinship with. An old guy with a bad back. Do you think you like seafood and spare ribs? We could invite him out. He's in LA. He can have a seafood tower with us. It just sounds like he should be sitting when Chris Chen finally invites you to play at Bel Air. just Stafford just sitting there at 4 o 'clock talking about how much his back hurts. Unfortunately, he's the quarterback of the Rams. Yeah. There we go. Staying away, but very interested in that game. Yes. I think that's one of those where I really want to watch both sides, both units, because I think both teams have some upside as a possible contender, especially the Texans because of their defense.

34:45Bill Simmons:Every fantasy league I'm in, I have the Texans defense. Yeah, I love the Texans defense for sure. That one, also look at the total. It's 43 and a half, and I'm still fine with under on that game. Me too. So you're leaning Texans or Rams in that game? What's your lean? Texans, Texans, Texans. Yeah, me too. All right, so we have all the same leans. And then the last one is Jet Steelers. Not only is this a stay away, I don't even have a lean. You can walk me into any scenario. If I had to actually, I wish there was a way to bet on this on FanDuel. The Steelers winning, but somehow not covering, I feel like is in play.

35:19Bill Simmons:I think the Cousins-style special was in play. I don't know what to expect from Rodgers at age 42. I don't trust Justin Fields at all. Varitaker's out for the Jets now. I don't even have a lean house. Do you have a lean? I do, and I almost put this in the mix. And the reason for that is because I do feel like I have a good feel for what the best unit on the football field will be, and it's the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense. And the Pittsburgh Steelers always arrive. Tomlin always arrives at the beginning of seasons prepared. They don't, like they, week one last year, they were getting points on the road at Atlanta.

35:57That was one of my favorite bets of the entire season, 2024. Week one, Steelers getting points. And we made some money early in the season riding the Pittsburgh Steelers because they show up defense, their defensive unit was ahead of all of the other offenses that they faced in the early season. And that's what catapulted them to that 10-win total and put them in the playoffs. I like that unit against this Jets team, against a quarterback that they know, against a brand-new head coach. So those were the reasons why I was willing to do something with Pittsburgh. But the line moved. Like, why did the line go from three to two and a half?

36:38Pittsburgh has been favored by three all summer long, all the way up until this week, and now it's two and a half? I don't like that. I want to know somebody tell me why that line moves. It makes you nervous. Yeah. Why is the line moving? Just sit tight. Sit there.

36:52Bill Simmons:Anyway. I'm staying away. I understand. If there's a play, it's probably Steelers and under. Sure. Something like that. Steelers adjusted under where you bring it up to like, you know, 49 points or something crazy with the Steelers minus two and a half. I mean, literally, we might see 90 combined rushes in this game. The two teams might combine for 90 rush attempts. The only thing that worries me, and this is why I barely even had a lean, was the Jets were so dysfunctional last year. Not only from a coaching standpoint, but the Rodgers situation. And I have some of the stuff I've read about Aaron Glenn, and I just wonder, is this coming out of the gates?

37:32Bill Simmons:And they're just pounding the ball, and they have some identity. So I don't want to find out. They're still counting on that defense. That's the reason why I feel like it's okay to stay away. JJ is all over the Steelers. So that's another reason. That's another reason to lean the Jets. Come on, bro. That's a low bro, bro. I have to get out of four that almost made the cut. And still might make the cut for all we know. Packers-Lions. Packers are minus two and a half against Detroit. That line bumped after the Parsons trade. There was a really interesting quote today, House, from Parsons. about how he was in the locker room getting treatment and almost the entire team was in the locker room.

38:17Bill Simmons:And he was really like thrilled. And he's like, I've never been part of a team where you could have said that. Just seems energized. And then there was some other stuff about this is why they got him. They wanted to pull him out of a relatively dysfunctional situation, put him in this infrastructure around good people with a great coach and just watch him blossom. I could see him going nuts in this game. You and I are both short on the Lions this year because of the coaching coordinator changes and the offensive line stuff and the fact that they had such a good year last year. Something's holding me back, House.

38:53Bill Simmons:There's some wide receiver injuries with the Packers. Yeah, that's one thing. Parsons getting an injection made me a little nervous. That's another thing. And I don't know why the Lions not three. And I think that's the number one thing for me that it's just two and a half. I don't know why somebody would take the Detroit outdoors in Lambeau with less of a line. I can't quite get there. And I thought I was going to have the Packers in Ringer 107. I was like really, really convicted on it for most of the summer. And now, now, no. Well, here's a couple of things. In the first place, Dan Campbell has been excellent against Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers.

39:34He's 6-2. The Detroit Lions have gone into Lambeau and beat the Green Bay Packers the last three years in a row. So that's how Dan Campbell is 6-2 against Matt LaFleur. Now, there are extraordinary numbers about the way that the Packers under LaFleur start the football season. He has a great record, one of the best records in the entire NFL.

39:57Bill Simmons:Isn't he like 90 % the last six years or something? It's really good, right? It's in that vicinity for sure. here's why and by the way the look ahead line on this was Detroit minus one and a half well let me say no no that's wrong I'm sorry it was Green Bay minus one and a half I'm sorry I misstated that it was more exciting when it was Detroit minus one and a half it's gone up a point a full point right I am concerned that this is Detroit trying to tell the world don't make that mistake of forgetting about us They still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Like a borderline nobody believes in this case?

40:39Bill Simmons:In this game. In this game. They're like, they see all of this chatter about Green Bay. People like us saying, we're happy to have our Green Bay futures. Green Bay to win the NFC North. Green Bay to make the playoffs. Green Bay to make a deep run. Green Bay with speculative tickets on the Super Bowl. Speculative tickets to win the NFC conference. The fans go to the game and they're like, this is it. The Super Bowl run starts here. Right. And then all of a sudden Detroit's up 10-0. Exactly. Yeah. I'm with you. So we're both like, there's something about this game that just feels a little stay away-ish.

41:13I'm all the way convinced to stay the F away. I just want to really enjoy the game. I mean, the other thing to remember is that Detroit last year, its hallmark was its physical play. And if you look at like, especially the first eight games of the season, after teams played Detroit their next games, they went out and got their asses blown off the football. So we need to remember that going in. But for the, just that toughness factor, when Detroit has all of its defense, all those guys ready to play it, let's just stay away from this one.

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42:27Bill Simmons:Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865, brilliantly boring since 1865 as a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association, member FDIC. Raiders Pats, this has fallen to Raiders plus two and a half. Gonzalez isn't playing this weekend. I don't know if it's been officially announced yet, but he has not practiced. It's clear that something bad happened with that hamstring, and he's going to be out at least for week one, I think.

43:10Bill Simmons:That sucks. And it's really changed how I feel about this Pats team because he's the best player in the defense, and I think if there was a case for them, especially early in the season, it was going to be centered around their defense doing stuff, Henderson playing right away, Diggs being able to play, which seems like it's going to happen. And I just, the Gonzalez thing scares me a little bit. Now, the Raiders don't really have like a receiver you necessarily have to shut down. It's Bowers. Yeah. And that wouldn't have been his job anyway. But I don't know. I haven't liked some of the vibe and some of the stuff I've heard the last couple of weeks about how the Pats have no depth, how they're a little younger than people realize, how having this much turnover is hard.

43:53Bill Simmons:I still have them in the playoffs, but it's the one I feel the worst. Well, because I picked it a week ago. I know. You have to stay and buy it. It's the one I can change it now, but it's probably the one I'm the most nervous now. The season hasn't started yet. No, I'm going to all ride with it because their schedule is so easy. I mean, they used to be the team that was part of the easy schedule for other teams. It's weird to say this. I think whoever wins this game gets the seventh seed. Wow. And I can't believe I'm saying that for week one, but I have one of these two teams definitely in the playoffs.

44:26Bill Simmons:And I like the spot for the Raiders. They're going to come in. They're going to move the ball. I have no idea if their defense is going to be any good. I have no idea if the Pats are going to be able to block Max Crosby. But I think the line is around right. And I think ultimately it's a stay away. I think a month ago, I would have said Pats week one. I'm betting them. Well, I'm glad because you're not requiring me to try and talk you out of the Pats in this game. and for all the reasons you just mentioned. I think this is one where let's just sort of see how this shakes out. Because, you know, here's the thing.

45:01I don't know the answer to coach and quarterback. Which coach and quarterback do you trust more in this week one?

45:09Bill Simmons:Well, the thing with May, and I was watching, it was interesting in the fantasy leagues I was in, fantasy drafts, like basically a$1 guy. I don't think people are expecting a lot from him. I thought he was incredible last year for how bad his receivers were and how bad the line was. And he was running for his life every series. And he was a rookie. He had the worst coaching staff. And I think I'm probably way higher on him that there's a chance he comes in this season and he's just incredible. If I had to do anything in this game, I would probably tease the Raiders to eight and a half. Okay. But we're not doing that for Ringer 107.

45:45Bill Simmons:And I want to root for the Pats. Good. Okay. This next one, Cardinals Saints, you threw down as one that you had a lot of interest in. So make the case. Cardinals minus six and a half at home against the Saints. It's the Cardinals are at New Orleans. Cardinals at New Orleans. And that's another one. I think the line is at five and a half. Oh, it's six and a half. It stayed at six and a half. Okay. Cardinals at the Saints, who everybody considers to be the worst team in the league. So this is, you know, for the Cardinals, their coming out party for everybody that's invested in the idea that there is a step up for them that Jonathan Gannon, this is the year that defense, especially with his acumen in terms of scheming, they didn't, they haven't had the personnel necessarily that fit the Gannon mold.

46:34They're supposed to have it this year. And the offense was a top 10 offense by a lot of advanced metrics last season. Kyler over the course of the season, they made, they had a legit chance to make the playoffs. Do you ever feel good about betting on them ever? Never. I try not to bet on the Cardinals. But in view of what we have all come to believe about the Saints. Now, here's the thing with the Saints and the reason why I'm glad you steered me away from them. They might have a decent defense. The defense was not an abject disaster last season, and especially at the beginning of the season. But on the offensive side of the ball, they still have a bunch of dudes.

47:15It's still Rashid Shahid. It's still Olave. It's still Kamara.

47:20Bill Simmons:It's still, you know, Taysom Hill in that combo. It's still a terrible quarterback. It seems like their offensive line is better. Because I bet them six weeks ago to have the worst record or be under three wins or whatever. And it does seem like the new coach bump, the nobody believes in us factor, the fact that not one person is even considering them to do anything. And because they have the worst quarterback situation of the Cleveland League, everybody's like, yeah, they're going to suck. But they did seem like they hit on their left tackle. Yeah. It does seem like they have a bunch of guys back and they got rid of Dennis Allen and that fucking terrible coaching staff.

47:58And the draft pick, that rookie has a multiple effect, a multiplying effect in moving that the bum who was one of the worst left tackles in NFL over to guard where he has less impact. The thing with Rattler is they only averaged 12 points with him at quarterback. But look, all those guys were hurt. Kellen Moore, with his acumen. Now Kubiak did his best, we would say, last season when they came out and went back-to-back games with 40 points. But it fell apart because of the injuries. Nobody had worse luck injury-wise than the Saints last season on the line, on the offensive line.

48:47Bill Simmons:So week one, Saints home voodoo just looming, right? We've seen it a bunch of times. I think everybody is going to pick the cards or throw them in a tease or put them in a elimination pool. They're just put them in a money parlay. Just throw the cards in. They're playing the Saints. It'll be fine. Meanwhile, the Saints are at home, which makes me nervous. and how many times has Kyler Murray completely fucked a parlay or a tease up? I can't think of maybe Trevor Lawrence. The Kyler Murray corollary. Out of all the under 30 quarterbacks, who has destroyed more parlays and teases? Who's let you down more?

49:32Bill Simmons:Like, I wouldn't go near this game. Yeah. If I did anything, I would bet Saints money line because I feel like, remember Bengals-Pats last year, week one? Right. The Pats beat the Bengals 16-10. It's like, whoa, who saw that coming? There's going to be a who saw that coming this game or this week. And I think it's either this one or the next one we're going to talk about, which is Denver, a line that has climbed out of minus eight and a half at home. Everybody's on them, including me. I have a staggering amount of future bets on them. They're playing Tennessee, rookie quarterback on the road. There's a million stats about a rookie QB first start, go against them straight up.

50:08Bill Simmons:The spread bets aren't great. Denver's defense. They run it up at home. They have 14 plus win victories from last year. They had a bunch of them. There's all these signs. Just throw them in a tease. It'll be fine. I'm not as worried about this one because I really believe in Denver. There's a spot when we do the ringer 107 that we could potentially put them in, but the line is so high. Like House, did you think about Tennessee plus eight and a half? No, I did not, but I would not bet Denver at eight and a half. It's too many points. It's too high. We just made it's way, way too high. There's not a 10 point difference between these two teams, especially the only thing that, you know, counsel's in favor of confidence in Denver is what if Callahan is the same moron that he was last year?

50:58Because I can't. What if their special teams are off? What if the coaching's bad? Yeah. I've said it before. I know team was less prepared, worse prepared week in and week out than the Titans. And that's how they went 2-15 against the spread. An all-time historical low mark against the spread because they were just ill-prepared week in and week out.

51:18Bill Simmons:And I was dying to pick them as the seventh seed because of the schedule. Because I really think Cam Ward is going to be potentially a special QB. I just, the coach, he's going to all of a sudden be a good coach. He was awful last year. Awful. The staff was awful. The game management was awful. The special teams was awful. Awful. It's just going to be better? I don't get it. All right. Now it's time for a special part of today's episode brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. Our friend. If you're an NFL fan like me and House, you got to subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket. Get every game, every Sunday all in one place.

51:56Bill Simmons:You can watch up to four games at once with multi-view. Also, I would highly recommend just subscribing to YouTube TV because then you get your own local games. You get Washington. I get the LA games here and you can put that in the multi-view. I have good news, House. Once again, YouTube has crowned me their CMO. Hey! Chief multi-view officer. You've earned it. And I'm going to tell you what I think we should do. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games and commercial use device and content restrictions apply. Terms of embargoes apply.

52:30Bill Simmons:No refunds. All right, House. Here's what we got. we're going to do the 1 o 'clock games on the East Coast. So that's 10 o 'clock Pacific time. We have eight games. We're going to figure out a multi-view. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Miami, Indianapolis, Carolina, Jacksonville, Vegas, Pats, Card Saints, Steelers, Jets, Giants, Washington. So I think our teams have to be in it. There's two. Giants, Washington's in. By the way, I can't wait to watch Giants, Washington. Home run. Vegas, Pats, home run. Those are two good ones. Carolina Jacksonville to see the points and the Travis Hunter piece.

53:12I'm literally shocked that that's the first game that I was, I thought I was going to have to convince you that that's one for us to watch. That's one that's going to be.

53:20Bill Simmons:It's going to be in Ringer 107 for us too. But yeah, I want to see the Travis Hunter piece. I want to see your boy Trevor Lawrence with Liam Cohen, an actual genuine article, a guy who understands modern NFL offense. He's the average depth of target for Trevor Lawrence was over nine yards last year. Nobody stood back there and took, just got blasted because they're running down the effing football field. They can't protect that man. And Liam Cohen turned around Baker Mayfield's career. Baker turned around on his own. But what Liam Cohen did for him. Save this for Ringer 107. Jacksonville, Carolina, three.

54:03Bill Simmons:What's your fourth one? Is it Tampa, Atlanta? Is it Steelers, Jets? Just a rock fight? We can't have both the AFC South and the NFC South. Is it Cincy Cleveland? It might be Cincy Cleveland for me. Because honest to God, I want to see those two. Oh, just a fantasy bro. Okay. And I would want to see those defenses. I want to see those defenses, both of them. Both the Browns defense and the Bengals defense. So we'll go Cincy Carolina. but then keeping Arizona, New Orleans back pocket for it. Back pocket. And let's go to New Orleans where it's 10 to three. The Saints are leading. Anyway, that is, thanks again to YouTube for crowning me their chief multi-view officer with every game, every Sunday at your fingertips.

54:46Bill Simmons:Choosing the ones that deserve a spot on your multi-view screen is serious business. That's why they made me the CMO. Never miss a moment of the action with NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. And for a limited time only, Get$36 off NFL Sunday ticket using code BS36 at checkout. New users only while supplies last. Ends 9-22. Go to youtube.com slash BS to sign up now. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games and commercial use. Device and content restrictions apply. Terms and embargoes apply. No refunds. Okay, Ringer 107. It's time.

55:23Bill Simmons:It is brought to you by FanDuel, our friends. we love FanDuel and we're going to pick five games and again we're competing against all the other shows FanDuel made us the favorites you have one pick I have two picks and we're going to agree on two and I'm going to give you the first pick and I think I know what it is it's involving the Chiefs Chargers game what is it? it's a true story I already tipped my hand in view of the slate and some of the considerations we've just gone through about games we decided were stayaways, let me have the coach-quarterback combination that I trust the most. This is a divisional matchup on a neutral field.

56:05The Kansas City Chiefs have owned the Chargers over the last handful of years, especially Mahomes and Andy Reid. And Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid don't lose in week one. The only loss that you can point to, they're 5-2 against the spread, 6-1 straight up in the seven seasons with Mahomes as a starter. They lost that Detroit game in 2023, but Chris Jones was out for that game. And I think... He was holding out. Yeah, Chris Jones was holding out and Travis Kelsey was out as well. So what I'm really buying here, though, is this Chiefs team loaded up for this season. It is, I think, a good argument that this is the best receiver room that Patrick Mahomes is going to enjoy in, what, three seasons, four seasons at least?

56:57Bill Simmons:Well, I would say for week seven it will be. He's got no race for six weeks. I understand, but still Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, that's better than quite a bit of what they went through last season. Zombie Kelsey, Pacheco's back. Yeah. Offensive line's better. Schrager talked about it when he was on the pod earlier this week. There's some, oh, wait, you don't think we're the guys anymore? You don't think Mahomes is in the top spot? There's some little swagger. And neither of us like the Chargers. Neither of us like the Chargers. I think we both have Chargers under bets and no playoff bets.

57:35Bill Simmons:I know I do. I think you do too as well. Losing their left tackle four weeks before this season. Probably the second best player on the team. Not great. They said they're starting Hampton, which I thought was interesting. I thought they were going to split time, but maybe it seems like they're going to try to get it. and they're probably going to try to run on the Chiefs. Best of luck. One of the best run defenses in the NFL. Here's why I'm with you, and I'm glad you picked this one. When we did Guess the Lions on Sunday, I picked Chiefs by six, even though it was a neutral field. And Sal laughed.

58:07That's a lot.

58:10Bill Simmons:Who's betting the Chargers in this game? Fair point. Fair point. You take the Chargers. You couldn't get me to even sniff them until it gets to plus six. Chiefs minus three is a fucking miracle. You know my feelings. What a great first ringer 107. Let's back Patrick Mahomes. I was talking about how Josh Allen might have taken the conch from him this year as the most reliable QB in the league. But let's back our guy. He's not chubby, Pat, but he's doughy, Pat? I don't know. I wouldn't. He's a little doughy, right? Is he? Is he doughy? I don't think so. I thought he was taking shit for being doughy.

58:45Bill Simmons:Oh, you know who that was? It wasn't him. It was your new wide receiver, Debo Samuel. How dare you? I forgot. I forgot. I'm going to serve you Debo's D's nuts is what we're going to have. I'm going to serve him right up on a platter. Debo's nuts is what you're going to get on a platter. Unnecessary shot at Debo, but yes, Chiefs minus three. I set you up for it, too. I was excited about it. You did. Chiefs minus three over the Chargers. That is our first Ringer 107 pick. Congratulations for getting us on the board. Only 106 more to go. My first one should not be a surprise to anyone who heard all the pods during the month of August and beginning of September.

59:23Bill Simmons:The Seahawks are home. They're playing the 49ers. They're underdogs, which is fantastic. It's a team that I am really bullish on, that I have NFC West bets on because I thought the odds were out of whack. They're 5-1. I have them as a playoff team. I am a huge Mike McDonald guy. I am not scared off by the fact that they seemingly went sideways at QB and probably a little backwards with receiver. I think with Kubiak in there, the zone-blocking offensive line with the two running backs. Zach Charbonnet I tried to get in every league that I had. I only got him in two. JSN, I think, has a chance to be one of the best eight receivers in the league.

1:00:07Bill Simmons:And I really, really believe in their defense. I think they could have a top five defense, special teams. And then you have the Niners, who already have some shakiness with the receivers. True. Right? They have Kittle and McCaffrey healthy. they have a little chip on their shoulder, but they have a ton of turnover. They have a bunch of like rookies and guys have never been in this situation. I'm kind of stunned that the Seahawks aren't favored. And so I'm getting plus two and a half. I'll probably in real life play the money line, but we're not doing money lines for a ringer 107. I'm on the board with Seahawks plus two and a half and you're making faces and I don't feel aligned with you at all.

1:00:43Yeah, I hate this pick. I would prefer that this be a stay away that we sit back and watch. nobody there's nobody in any of the analytics community that has the Seahawks offensive line ranked any higher than 29th you can't find somebody who takes that looks at that offensive line objectively looks at their performance last year looks at the duress that Geno Smith was under all season long and and and puts in the forecast ahead of time that this offensive line is capable of protecting Sam Darnold. And the one thing...

1:01:20Bill Simmons:I'm going to give you four worst ones. Houston, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Miami. I don't think Houston's worse. I don't think Houston's worse. And I don't think Miami is worse either. I don't think either one of those are worse. We will see. The one thing about Sam Darnold that we know for sure is that he's bad under pressure. And if there's any possibility that he's... He had top of class time to throw the football. He had, on early downs last year, three seconds on 47 % of his drop, three seconds or more, which is why he threw the football 20 yards down the football field in that Minnesota Vikings offense and ranked at the very top of class for those deep passes.

1:02:01He's not going to get any of that with this offense. And they're going to have to set up the run. So we're going to need that Seattle offensive line who was bottom three in the run.

1:02:11Bill Simmons:So you're violently against this. I said I hate the pick. who would you sub it for then? You mean in terms of what's on the plate? Is there another game? What's remaining? Like some of the ones we talked about. Like would you put Falcons plus one and a half against the Bucs in this spot? I like that way better than I like the Seattle, San Francisco situation. We're a team this year. Okay. I'm going to be talked out of it. Okay. Okay. Okay. Because here's the thing. Now I can't lose because if the Seahawks win. You can rub it right. I'm going to fucking murder you. I understand. all day on text.

1:02:46I accept it. I accept it.

1:02:46Bill Simmons:I will accept it. The only thing that you're, you, that you got murdered on for more this summer than if Seattle wins this game is the Frosé disaster when you were here with Jacko. Well, some would call it a disaster. Some would call it a gigantic success. That was an all time performance by me. How can you say anything to the contrary? A couple of weekends ago, you and Jacko come for the weekend and we, we did, we filmed the rewatchables. That's going to run at some point. this summer. True story. And we hung out the whole weekend and it was great. And we were making a concerted effort to see each other every year.

1:03:21Bill Simmons:Cause at any point, any of us could be dead at this point. Who knows? God only knows what's going to happen to us. Um, so my wife decides she's going to have a dinner party on Friday night with 16 people. We blow it out. And she, she's really excited about this Frosé machine she bought. She's never made the Frosé and we're sitting in the back and she's making the frosé and she's doctoring it. And she leaves and House is staring at the frosé machine. And Jacko and I are like, no, House, don't do it. And he's like, I mean, it's right there. There's frosé in it. Why can't I have some? She wanted us to try it.

1:03:59She encouraged us to sample it. Now, just set the stage properly. I came out on that same Friday. I was up at 5.30 in the morning on the East Coast, flew out so I could get there in time. Hear the excuses. For us to do the rewatchables, had a marvelous time. And then it's time to let our hair down. And we go out to the back bar. It's a great setting. The sun is, I mean, you know, it was perfect California weather. And the Frosé machine.

1:04:25Bill Simmons:The Red Sox beat the Yankees. Well, you enjoyed that part for sure. Poor Jacko. And the Frosé, she's like, you guys go ahead and try a little. Cause you know, she's priming it. She wasn't that forthcoming about the, you guys go ahead and try. I think she was like, she was encouraging. Yeah, she's like, keep an eye on it. I think it was like, if you want to try a taste, not drink all of the frosé. Don't tell everybody the story. The thing wasn't freezing to her liking. It wasn't getting frozen enough. So she was like tampering with the little binge. So she leaves to go get ready and do a whole bunch of things.

1:04:58Bill Simmons:And House goes over and takes this huge thing of frosé, takes a sip, and goes, there's not enough alcohol. I want to make sure it was frozen enough. Yeah, there's not enough alcohol in this. Goes, grabs a bottle of vodka, pours a shot and a half of vodka in the frosé. It's just a floater. Throws down the frosé. Jacko and I are just like taking it easy, having like a vodka and soda or something. You love the frosé. You go back, have a second one. You pour more vodka in it. You throw that one down. Now some people have showed up. And I'm starting to get a little worried about you because, you know, whatever.

1:05:33Bill Simmons:I can tell when you're, I was like, is he tired? Is he tipsy? the food comes out at like eight eight o 'clock eight thirty you're eating pork again we were sitting outside at four thirty in the afternoon that's when we sat down outside all right so in my food and you disappear for like 10 minutes and i think you go to call your wife like this is like we're 30 in in the dinner party at this point and i say to jacko where's house and jacko goes I don't think he's coming back. I was like, what do you mean? He knows me so well. I was like, I don't think he's coming back. Johnny knows. So you went back and you went to make a call and somehow you just were like, I need to go lie down and you were done.

1:06:17I honestly went to make a gigantic ice water. Yeah. I wanted like, you know, I was like, oh, the food was amazing, by the way. I don't remember all the chef's credentials, but the pork was, I think, secreto. The butcher made me a little secreto, which is like a choice, you know, the secret bit, like a beautiful piece of wine. But I had to go get some ice water to refuel. I was enjoying the company, everybody's company. The friends were out, you know, I could tell them how good the frosé was. So you're going for an hour. Well, I go sit down is the problem. I sat down with the ice water. And the next thing you know, I look up and, you know, half hour's gone by.

1:06:58Bill Simmons:And I'm talking to everybody and like, I don't know, like maybe 45 minutes an hour later, like, I don't think house is coming back. Like, where's Joe? So now Carrie's like, what? He's gone. He was barely here. And Jacko goes, well, he was drinking the Frosé, which she knew. And she got mad. She'd already yelled to you about how you had drank too much of the Frosé. Because I drank the whole first batch. You did. I didn't know that that was the, you know, it was. I thought there was a big supply. He was drinking the Frosé and he was pouring like two shots of vodka in it. A little floater. And she goes, wait, what?

1:07:33Bill Simmons:I put so much booze in that. You just can't taste it. So you were having like quintuple Frosé. So Frosé House, now we're calling you Jose. Frosé House just was out. You threw like four innings. You didn't even get 15 outs to be official for a win or a loss. I think I had 11 strikeouts in those four innings, though. They were quality innings. Well, legendary story. A lot of Frosé jokes. Anyway, as bad as Frosé House was, you talked me out of the Seahawks, and now if we get fucked on this, I'm going to give you more shit than the Frosé thing. So we're putting Falcons-Bucks in there. That's what we're doing.

1:08:15Bill Simmons:We both like the Falcons, right? Yeah. I just think it's a bad spot for the Bucs with the receiver, the new offensive coordinator, a couple receivers missing, Egbuka in his first game, even though we all love Egbuka.

1:08:38Bill Simmons:Man, I'm going to be really mad at you. Okay. So second pick, Falcons plus one and a half. Third one, we both like this one, the Bears. I love the Bears. Bears plus one and a half, Monday night. I'm in on them to be over on their win total. I'm in on them actually to be a playoff team. I'm in on Ben Johnson. I'm in on everything I've read. I love the moves they made this summer. I liked how they beefed up their weapons. And J.J. McCarthy on the road on a Monday night in Chicago. Shades of that Arch Manning OSU situation. And I just, I'm surprised by the line. I got to be honest. Bears plus one and a half was surprising to me.

1:09:16Bill Simmons:And I wonder if it's going to flip on Monday. Do you see the Bears being minus one and a half on Monday? I do because I think there's enough skepticism about, you know, Ben Johnson in his first game and his impact on Caleb. Like there was a healthy skepticism built up against Caleb and Caleb kind of earned it. But really, it was a disaster of a situation. The thing that made me so bullish on Chicago was the bit, I'll confess it right now, on hard knocks. when the Bears and the Bills played each other and we saw Ben Johnson, you know, in kind of game mode. I was just so impressed. And honestly, it was the diametric opposite of the previous season when I knew to fade the Bears because Aberflues was a goddamn douche the entire hard knocks.

1:10:07I couldn't believe it. Like, who hired this guy to be a head coach of a football team with the number one draft pick rookie quarterback so it went exactly as folks might anticipate, but I really like this Bears team. I think their defense especially, and the thing that we'll see out of O 'Connell and Minnesota is they're going to run. They're going to try and run the ball. Get your Jordan Mason futures now. Get them all lined up at rush attempts. For the Vikings, you're talking about. The Vikings, yes, because the Vikings are going to run the football. They're going to try and run to protect that kid and have him not having to stand back there and throw the ball down the field, But I like the Bears' run defense under the circumstances where they get to anticipate that Vikings are going to – now, I don't mean that disrespectful to O 'Connell because O 'Connell is going to mix it up.

1:10:56Bill Simmons:By the way, no Jordan Addison in this game. Adam Thielen coming from Carolina. I just like the spot. I just like the Bears in a tease, which we're not going to do. But I thought the Bears as a tease was a taste one. All right, the two we agree on. So we have Chiefs minus three, Falcons plus one and a half, Bears plus one and a half.

1:11:17Ravens at Buffalo.

1:11:18Bill Simmons:Buffalo, a team that I picked to make the Super Bowl. And yet, we both like the Ravens in this game. And there's a bunch of reasons for it. There's some revenge factor. Mark Andrews, the prop queen talked about this on Reward Gambling show today. Amazing show. Amazing show. Monday, the Mark Andrews stuff, everyone's going to bet on him to catch a touchdown. It's just going to be almost like the all-time redemption story. I don't think it's going to be like that. But the Bill stuff, the secondary issues for them - That's it. Really makes me nervous. Right. And you talked about it yesterday with the Cuz about when they signed Jordan Poyer.

1:11:59Bill Simmons:And it just feels like they're scrambling for bodies. And it's week one. I think it means maybe a little more to the Ravens to be able to go in there. This was one I had penciled down as a win for Buffalo for a while, but if they win this one, I hate betting against Josh Allen. This would be a Josh Allen throwing everybody on his back game, but I just like, I like the spot for the Ravens. Yeah, we're in lockstep. I mean, the thing, the reason to be nervous is because the Bills have lost two home games in three years. Like the Buffalo Bills don't lose at home. Yeah, what are we doing? Why are we doing this?

1:12:34We're doing this because I think the Baltimore Ravens have the most talent on both sides of the football of any team in the entire NFL. And the Ravens are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year. But we don't need all that hyperbole. They do have, even with the injuries, and here's the cautionary note. The way that the Ravens establish their offense and get Lamar free is they play all this heavy personnel, which is either two tight ends or more pointedly, Patrick Ricard, the fullback. So Isaiah Likely, their number one protecting tight end, he's out. And Patrick Ricard is also out for this game.

1:13:14So they're not going to be able to play out of that heavy personnel. This is a shout out to Warren Sharp, who did a nice job setting this up. I do think yet even though they won't be able to run out of that comfortable personnel set, that formation that they like. I love their weapons across the board. I think Lamar showed us last season, especially in that playoff game, that they can get vertical. Like they lost that game by, you know, they sabotaged themselves. It was self-sabotage. And it was Mark Andrews and it was the turnovers. If they don't have the unforced errors, I don't like the Bills' defense.

1:13:50I think that defense is going to be a real vulnerability all season long. The thing that saves the Bills, And the reason why I think you're on the right path in terms of having them go far is their schedule is amazing. They're going to be able to manage their schedule. If they can get any health at all on defense, they can go on a run for sure. But this game one, week one, Baltimore, that's why the line went from Buffalo favorite to Baltimore favorite.

1:14:15Bill Simmons:Yeah, so this is 446 Pacific time on a Thursday now. If you Google Buffalo injuries secondary, the AI overview is not flattering. And then you go to the news stories and the headlines are Bill's injuries at cornerback pose problems. So what about the Bill secondary? Cornerback concerns Mount. Bill's injury riddled secondary faces tough tests. Bill suffered another injury and already depleted secondary. They have both starting cornerbacks, Benford and White, look like they're out. and they're having safety issues and it's just like, no thanks. No thank you. That's right. FYI, we were trying to be nice, but if you're going to bet on Lamar Jackson in a big game, you'd want to do it in September.

1:15:01Bill Simmons:Sorry, Mallory. It's true. Well, they did start off 0-2 last year, the Ravens. I'm just saying, this is regular season Lamar. I wouldn't want to do this in the playoffs, is my point. Yes. Agreed. See, now people are going to be like, Lamar didn't have anything to do with them losing last year, but that's fine. He was awesome, in fact. He was awesome. Lamar was awesome. Why are you so nervous about Lamar backlash? I'm not. I was treated to an amazing crab feast with our buddy Warren Sharp at his house because Jimmy's Seafood up there in Baltimore sent down all these crabs because of our respect for the Baltimore Ravens.

1:15:38I would never do anything that would get in the way of a crab cake. How about that?

1:15:41Bill Simmons:I'm in a guillotine league. Not the one we're in, but another one with my friend Casey. and we had the fourth pick and we took Lamar Jackson. Awesome. Great job. And it was like 12 picks too early. I don't think so. But by the time it would have come back to us, I just don't think you can win a guillotine league unless you have Lamar, Josh, or Burrow in the first couple weeks because those are the only three quarterbacks where you know what you're getting each week. I know I'm getting a big amount of points. Anyway, I'm excited to root for him in this game because I'll have gambling, I'll have fantasy interest, all that stuff.

1:16:20Bill Simmons:Last one. We agreed on this one too. And I don't know how we're going to play yet, but we both really like the Jaguars against the Panthers. The Panthers not only have, I think, the worst defense in the NFC, not only has there been a very strange Bryce Young revisionist history. I was driving to a haircut today and I was listening to Mad Dog Russo with Troy Aikman. And they were talking about, and by the way, I love Mad Dog. they were both talking about how good Bryce Young was in the second half of the season. I was like, am I missing something? I remember him being okay and having a couple good games, but now we have reached Bryce Young was awesome.

1:16:58Bill Simmons:I just feel like people get amnesia, as I keep saying with what happened last year. Bryce Young was definitely way better. We felt good about it, but he's in a situation now where they traded Thielen, Coker got hurt. Tett McMillan, his number one pick, has a hamstring thing. I don't even know. We're going to be in the heat potentially. I don't know how many downs he's going to be able to play. So I don't know if they're going to have the receivers. And then conversely, the Jags, I said this to Sal on Sunday, this feels like a classic Jags look awesome. You laid out the Liam Cohen case earlier, the weapons and like, oh my God, the Jet, whoa, what do we have?

1:17:40Bill Simmons:And I could see them just blowing out the Panthers. So how do we want to play this is my question. Because this is, with the ringer 107, we have wiggle room with one pick where we can do a tease, we can do a parlay. We can parlay and alt under. We can go all kinds of directions. So we can basically, the two things I mailed you, we can take the Jags money line because I don't like the hook. We can take them straight up. It was three and now it's three and a half. This is another one. So we can take the Jags money line and parlay it with the over of 37 and a half. And that's minus 117. The rules of ring are 107.

1:18:17Bill Simmons:It could be a parlay. It has to be minus 120 or better. The other one we could do is we could just parlay the Jags with the Broncos and do a money parlay Jags Broncos and just hope both teams win. And that is around the same. What is your preference? or a third option would be just suck it up and go Jags minus three and a half. Right.

1:18:44My out of those three choices, my preference would be to just ride the Jaguars minus the three and a half.

1:18:51Bill Simmons:Not worry about the backdoor touchdown at the end of the game. Yeah. Like the, the, the, the, the, the alt total down to 36, where was it? 37. Is that where you, yeah. Yeah, so I mean, this is one of my favorite overs of the week, which is, you know, the Jags unleashed with Cohen and Trevor Lawrence. They're trying to make a statement. Remember last season, they looked pretty damn good against Miami. And then Travis Etienne fumbled the goddamn football going into the end zone. And Miami, you know, took that game away. But the Jaguars were, I honestly think that that sabotaged their entire season.

1:19:28They became that team that fumbled away opportunities to win games all season long through dumb, boneheaded kind of stuff. I don't think that the Carolina Panthers' defense has improved enough. There are stories that say they've stabilized. They're not going to be as bad. I just don't think that they've improved enough. And the Jaguars' weapons, those are Cadillac weapons across the board. And I like that offensive line. I think if Cohen and Trevor Lawrence are on the same page about getting rid of the goddamn football within a couple of seconds after snap, that's a formidable offense. They have the skill guys there.

1:20:10Thomas is going to have a huge game, I think. So I'm not afraid of the three and a half, to be honest with you.

1:20:17Bill Simmons:Well, did you see that they're going to play Hunter a bunch at wide receiver, it looks like? That's the sound of a boner. is that what it sounds like that's what it sounds like our other option is we can go straight up on this and we can do for our parlay Falcons plus three and a half with over 35 and a half points gets us under as our parlay bet that would be minus minus 116 we could move the Falcons up to plus three and a half over 35 and a half I don't want to bet a total with Michael Panix I don't want to have anything to do with the total in that Tampa game. So let's just do the – so you want to do the straight up.

1:20:59So you're not worried about the hook. I think in week one, let's just be, you know, let's be bold. There's no reason to be, like, sniffing around, oh, how can we find a combination that's going to protect – why are we doing all that? We've done the hard work all season – all offseason to get to this point where we're finally ready. We know what the priors are. We know what our thoughts are. We've bet all the futures. You and the cousin Sal did futures for hours. Can I ask you this? Ask me.

1:21:26Bill Simmons:Is there any chance Tennessee is going to go in Denver and beat Denver? It would. The sports book would make$2 billion. So that would be the reason why. Because the books will make so much money if that happens. But how do you get there? How does Sean Payton and Bo Nix? Jags money line, Denver money line. That could be our fifth pick. Jags money line. We don't have to worry about the hook. Denver just has to beat a rookie QB and son of Brian Callahan, whatever his name is at home. I mean, they just signed Bonitti to an extension and everybody looks so happy. Everybody in that Denver situation, they got their extensions done.

1:22:07Is Denver really going to lose in week one to Tennessee?

1:22:09Bill Simmons:Come on. What are we doing? I just want to be on the record. I am confident in the Jaguars laying the three and a half, but I'm fine with the idea of doing Jags Denver money line. That's fine. I don't have any problem with it. All right, here we go. Official Ringer 107 picks. We have no losses yet because the season hasn't started. Chiefs minus three in Brazil against the Chargers. Back in Mahomes and Reed. We're back in the infrastructure. We're shorting the Chargers. Falcons plus one and a half. At home? At home. Against Tampa. We're investing in Michael Penix. we are worried about the bucks receiver issues, new offensive coordinator, and we want the bucks.

1:22:55Bill Simmons:We want to back them starting in October to win that division. But right now I have a little rockiness house. Talk me out of the Seahawks. We went with the Falcons bears plus one and a half against the Vikings. Uh, we're all in on this Ben Johnson revamp bears roster, uh, Eber flus, the Eber flus bump. Yeah. To competent coach from Eber flus. And, uh, J.J. McCarthy on the road has some March Manning parallels in Ohio State. Ravens minus one and a half against the Bills, really because of how banged up the Bills secondary is in early season Lamar. And then last but not least, after a lot of haggling, Jaguars money line against the Panthers.

1:23:34Bill Simmons:We think the Jaguars have a chance to blow out the Panthers, but we'll just grab their money line and we're going to put it with the Denver money line against Tennessee. And that is under minus 120. So that fits for the Ringer 107 parameters. Good luck to us, House. Best of luck to us. I'm not going to forecast what I think is going to happen this week. I don't want it to be thrown up in my face by our competent competitors, but I like our slate, Bill Simmons. I like our slate more than I liked you against the Frosé two Friday nights ago. I won. I drank the whole batch. Your wife's mad at me. The Frosé was saying they won.

1:24:07Bill Simmons:Your wife got mad at me. That's Ringer 107 brought to you by Fando Sportsbook. And don't forget to check out Ringer NFL Fantasy Football. Thursday ringer gambling show and Friday ringer gambling show because that's who we're competing against. One more break and then I want to talk quickly about this Kawhi Leonard thing. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. All right, parents, PayPal's on your team this back to school. I've been there myself. You're paying for sports gear, backpacks, sneakers, laptops. You've likely got multiple carts, your favorite online stores. Well, that's when PayPal comes in with the assist.

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1:25:23Bill Simmons:Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser-Busch, Michelob Ultralight Beer, St. Louis, Missouri. All right. So House, a couple of days ago, I was talking to Zach Lowe because he had returned to the States and we were saying how boring this NBA summer was, that nothing had happened, that it was the driest NBA summer we had had this entire decade. we had really no international basketball. We had no Olympics. We had no bubble basketball. Just nothing. And then all of a sudden the Balmer thing happens. Pablo Torre, who was on this podcast a couple weeks ago. I can't remember how many. The journalist, Pablo Torre.

1:26:02Bill Simmons:Yeah, he journalisticed it up. He sure did. This was a great story by him. Journalisticed the shit out of this. Great job by him. He really did. Good job by him. This crazy story about Steve Balmer and this company that, what was it called? Aspiration? I had never even heard of this company. It was a big Klipper sponsor. Walmart invested in it. There was money being spent on Kawhi Leonard's services that he was not really rendering. And it was just a lot of - He had the option to render services. I guess he declined to render. It was a lot of breadcrumbs. It was a whole heaping cup of breadcrumbs.

1:26:37And it confirmed at least the story

1:26:42Bill Simmons:We'll find out if it's true or not because the NBA is going to investigate. I'm not saying the reporting wasn't true. I'm saying the actual is there. Did Balmer actually launder money through this thing to pay Kawhi Leonard, which is what the NBA is going to investigate. It confirmed a lot of stuff that we've always felt was going on, both anecdotally and whisper stuff. And just this is a whole world of the NBA that they would rather we didn't talk about. I've talked about it anecdotally on my podcast a few times about star players being allowed to use the team plane for their own purposes or being allowed to stay at, you know, an owner's beach place for two weeks with a bunch of their friends.

1:27:25Bill Simmons:Like, there's a lot of nooks and crannies in the CBAs and the league just does this. They're like, we don't want to know. We don't want to know. You and I won't name names because this podcast is too popular. I felt like I could get away with it in some other form. so I did name names, but things like, you know, a couple big star players landing in a city where you really have a hard time figuring out what the attraction was for those two players, but looks like there might be some investment vehicles maybe outside of the United States of America. There's some wink-wink investment stuff. You always hear that.

1:28:01Maybe like an inside, you know, line of sight on some investments in foreign jurisdiction. teams that, you know, figure out a way. There's some star players with documentaries and who knows, you know, where the economics go with that kind of thing. It's just that kind of stuff out there.

1:28:19Bill Simmons:Yeah, all kinds of businesses. There's a lot of ways to do this. And this was always like with Tom Brady and Kraft with the Patriots for the last basically 10 years with TB12 running, you know, and having a whole facility right next to Gillette Stadium. And there was always people wondering, and look I think any league is going to be like we kind of don't want to know unless you force us to try to have to find out what we should know in this case the Clippers came out pretty aggressively saying especially from a Balmer standpoint that this was not true I thought what Cuban said was interesting and it backed up something that I thought because I read all this stuff and, uh, you know, the way it was all laid out, it was pretty damning that there was more than a smoking gun here.

1:29:13Bill Simmons:This was so sloppy that it almost makes me think, I, I, I kind of just can't believe everything I know about Bomber, how shrewd of a businessman he is, how thoughtful he is about everything. Like even how they did the Intuit Dome, every, every piece of that place he put so much thought into. And I just think he's like a really on it guy. He's not like a cut corners, old billionaire who just fucking does whatever. He's really on it. And all of this that was laid out was the sloppiest shit I've ever seen. And I'm just like, I just can't believe he was this dumb. That's kind of where I've landed.

1:29:52Bill Simmons:And maybe he was this dumb. So if we want to be - But I can't believe he was this dumb. Yeah. So the way to get to where we are right now and trying to answer the Balmer question is, do you really think that a 50, what was the investment that he made? Wasn't it the investment? I don't want to go. We don't need to go. It wasn't enough money for it to necessarily be something that he, his own self is sitting down and looking at the investment thesis. Now, I'm not suggesting that he didn't do his diligence, but he entrusts quite a bit. to a whole cadre of people in his support system. And this could be one where somebody in his support system said, I see a pathway for this investment here.

1:30:41And, you know, by the way, now I'm not suggesting anything necessarily nefarious out of his investment team and connecting the dot with Kawhi. That could have come later. But this thing was attracting celebrities. They were trying all kinds of celebrities. Look at the list of creditors. The Boston Red Sox are a creditor. Whoever the brain trust was behind this Ponzi scheme, those people had access to big swinging dicks. And I'm not suggesting anything about Ballmer himself missing here. To me, the plausible explanation is his investment team was swayed. They saw that the other investors were other teams, other celebrities.

1:31:27You know, that kind of thing. Not that dissimilar from the crypto thing that turned out to be a fraud with all of the...

1:31:35Bill Simmons:Well, and that's another thing. The crypto and the Bitcoin is another way to take care of people and you wouldn't even know it happened. Interesting. Interesting. It's the sleazy side of the league and it's existed for a long time. And it's always been whispered about and talked about in all these different ways. and this is one of those where it's like, see, see, this shit does happen. But you really have to believe Balmer, who is a super smart guy, just completely, completely fell asleep at the wheel. And maybe he did. But my reaction was like, wow, this is some of the dumbest shit I have ever seen if this is true.

1:32:19Bill Simmons:Because what's going to happen is they'll get, they'll probably, the contract will maybe be nullified. Who knows? But they'll be fined at least as much as the Joe Smith thing. They'll lose at least four to five first round picks. I mean, maybe they'll be fine. Maybe worse, right? Because the other problem is that other owners are pissed. Right. Because they got him at, you know, a slightly less than market value. Right. You know, it's just. Yeah. And then the other piece of this, this was kind of discussed at the time. I remember talking about it on my podcast, but everybody heard about Kawhi's uncle, uncle dennis oh yeah that had his hand out that whole free agency and to every team that talked and um was kind of unlike any other person that any team had to deal with so and then there was some somebody reported about how the toronto owner had said how this guy tried to make me arrange all this money so it's just a mess and i'm sure adam silver got through the summer it was like this has been great man we figured out this euro league thing we squashed this lebron maverick Saudi thing.

1:33:20Bill Simmons:We have a hard salary cap. We've put in a hard salary cap. Matt Ishbia seems like he's starting to be competent. I got 4.25 billion for freaking Portland. Expansion's not happening anymore because we're all making so much money. We're doing great. What a great summer. I'm just going to relax this week. These next couple of weeks, I'm just going to be somewhere tropical or in the sun or in some beach house. And then this comes down with Balmer, an owner that everybody he likes. So I have no idea what's going to happen. An innovator. Yeah. But Pablo's team, like, you know, cause Pablo has a staff.

1:33:58Bill Simmons:Yeah. Um, they, they broke this shit down. They found documents. Like they, uh, they just did an awesome job. Um, and I don't know how it plays out. So if you had to bet, if you had to bet, does this lead to like a Joe Smith type situation or is there some sort of explanation. If I gave you those two choices, there's some sort of explanation that gets them out of this or it's going to be more like we are slapping your hand really, really hard with a bamboo stick. There's no explanation that gets them out of this. They are going to be punished. I think there is an explanation. I think that Balmer will be sufficiently distanced.

1:34:38I do think the most plausible explanation to me is somebody and his investment team found this thing, was persuaded, let's put in the chunk of money that they put in. And then somebody said, oh, look, they're doing celebrities. Kawhi, hey, look, man, you could get in on this. This is going to be an easy gig for you. And Balmer is going to have sufficient sort of prophylactic layers, right? You won't find communication. Is that the diaphragm? You won't find direct communications. Balmer is like, please tell Kawhi that he can get$30 million free if he agrees to sign up with this dumb Ponzi scheme.

1:35:16Bill Simmons:Tree farm, whatever. nonsense. One of the weird things was this was two years after his initial deal. Right. So it doesn't tie in the 2019 piece. And then the other thing that if you're going to say that this actually did happen, it's so much money to give to Kawhi Leonard. If it was like$5 million, I'm like, all right, yeah, this was a Ponzi scheme. These guys were idiots. It was$28 million. And then there was a report today that it might have been even more than that in stock. Like another $20 million. So then when you see that, you're like, man, this looks bleak for Bomber. I think he's going to have to come out pretty hard if this isn't true.

1:35:57Bill Simmons:Well, it's true. It happened. He definitely invested the money, and Kawhi definitely got the contract and definitely got money from it, and I think that's enough. For the league's perspective, who cares what the explanation is? It happened. Bomber put his money in it, and Kawhi got money out of it. If he didn't know anything about this and there's some sort of accident or whatever... It's not an accident. he's got to come out really hard and be like, look, this was not an end around to give Kawhi Leonard more money. I swear on my kids' lives. Like whatever. You have to go hard to, to try to prove that this is true because this is going to haunt him for the rest of his career as an owner.

1:36:34Bill Simmons:It is. Well, what was it? Was it Glenn Taylor? He's the one that ran the Joe Smith thing? Yeah, Glenn Taylor was a terrible owner. This guy owns, owns the Clippers. He's trying to fight the Lakers. Now, by the way, the Lakers can't stand the Clippers. They couldn't be happier about this. And the funniest thing of all this is, guess where the All-Star game is going to be this year? The epicenter of the NBA. Holy cow. Wow. That's awesome. You coming? Should I get the Frosé ready? Immediately. Yes, I'm in. I'm all the way in. We'll just be recovering from the Super Bowl. Okay. All right, House. I'm glad we talked that one out.

1:37:11Bill Simmons:I'll see you next Thursday. Hopefully, the Ringer 107 went well. And if Seattle covers and the Bucks beat the Falcons, you can blame me. I would just put your phone on mute. I would turn your notifications off. On Sunday? Yeah. Maybe I'll do that anyway. Maybe I'll just do that anyway. Thanks, House. Great to see you. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget about new rewatchables coming on Monday. It is a one for us with me and Chris Ryan. And you can check all the rewatchables we've done on Ringer Movies. You can check out House on Sunday on the Ringer pregame, which I think we moved to 1130 this year.

1:37:51Bill Simmons:The cast is back. We're going to be doing it on our YouTube channel on the Ringer Gambling show, Ringer Gambling YouTube channel. And I can't wait. I might even pop on. I might even have a pick. You're welcome. You're invited. Always. I might even have a pick for everybody. House, good job by you. Thank you. Good job by you.

1:38:13I don't have feelings with him.

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