Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal

25:05Fucking put it up. Let's go. I want to bet all kinds of scenarios. Bangs his shoulder on the fridge, separates it much like Abdul Carter. Hey, come on. Abdul's fine. Alright, AFC South. Now, they're playing the AFC West and the NFC West this year. What are your thoughts on that? I think that's fine. I think that's fine. They play themselves, so that's what's good. That was a tepid endorsement. Well, you know what I'm also looking at? So let's add that up. 33 wins for the AFC East and 35 for the AFC North. Oof. Okay. Well, that number's about to drop for the AFC. So Houston 10-7 last year, and then they're playing the West and the West.

25:58Yeah. I think you could argue they're worse, right? I don't know when Tank Dell's coming back. Diggs is gone. He was gone anyway. They traded Tunsell. They got a second round pick for him. The AFC South, I'm assuming, will be a whiff better than it was last year. And they're playing a first-place schedule. I wanted to go 10.5, and I couldn't get there. I went 9.5. What'd you do? That's what I have. Is it 9.5? It can't be 10. We'll see. I did think about the round 10. Yep, 9.5. Ooh, breaking. You got it right? Yeah, not only do we get it right, minus 160 on the under. So that's the biggest... So the most action we've seen so far is that.

26:43Minus 160. Vegas doesn't like Houston. They're a weird team, right? Fired their offensive coordinator. Yeah. They should mow through this division. And they were in how confident were we in C.J. Stroud last year? And then we didn't get that confidence back into like the first round of the playoffs. So it's strange. They signed a lot of one-year players, Cam Robinson, Deneau Hunter, Trent Brown. We'll see what happens. Indianapolis, 8-9 last year, second place schedule. Our guy, Dabundo, is a little higher on the Anthony Richardson. Don't count this guy out. He was banged up last year. This is going to be the FU comeback year for Richardson.

27:24if that doesn't happen Daniel Dimes is right behind him what'd you go? I want to have a strong opinion about Jones I'm not there yet but I feel like I have no reason to support him but maybe that was as disastrous a situation as you could come from Giants, torn ACL Giants yeah and now coming to the Colts maybe that's a good deal sounds like you like it, I have 7.5 what'd you have? we're on par here 7.5 for me too and it's 7.5 and minus 110 both ways not a lot of cold sections so you're still up plus 2 on me but we've nailed the last couple okay this one was a hard one Jacksonville third place schedule west and west 4-13 last year you know I don't know what this team does I don't understand it like they wave Christian Kirk and then just signed another receiver for the money and now they're paying two fine receivers, a double salary basically.

28:27Are you not excited about that, Amy Brown? I'm not. Fifth pick in the draft could be Gente. Could be Tyler Warren. Everybody likes him as like an awesome tight end. They just keep throwing resources at the receiver position and it never happens. But I was between five and a half and six and a half for this. New coach was the big thing for me. And I went six and a half. What'd you have? Did I go too high with seven and a half? I just feel like all these teams are the same. You did not go too high. Seven and a half. Whoa. God, you're killing me. You want to cash out? Hit the cash out button. Is there a bet back?

29:07What's that bet back thing Fandle has? Not only is it seven and a half, minus 130. So action on the Jaguars. What am I missing? Yeah. What are we missing? I don't know. Just bad division? Bad division. Bad owner, though, too. Like, that's why you can't ever take them. Like, it doesn't ever seem to work out for them. Injuries or anything. Hmm. But I thought they were about the same as the Colts. I mean, they shouldn't be that much less than the Colts. Our agent, James Babydoll Dixon. Yeah, baby. Likes to wish luck from people. Wish luck to some people from time to time. Some people recently got some luck.

29:43Oh, yeah. Yeah, there's some people in the Hollywood industry who might have been phased out of their jobs. Luck was wished by James Babydoll Dixon. I wish everyone a lot of luck going over Jacksonville minus seven and a half. I'm just telling you right now, that's insane. I don't see it at all. You really have to believe this is the year with Lawrence. It's like it's now year six. I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him, but I'm not betting that scenario, right? I don't like it either. But, you know, it all ends up being like they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in.

30:18Right. And so that's probably it. Playing that garbage division, they'll be favored in every home game. And they'll be favored against a couple of NFC West teams. At least two of the home games. Yeah. Okay. Tennessee, 3-14 last year. West and West, fourth place schedule. Cam Ward, we're assuming, they take him first. Yeah. I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year. I was trying to think, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league in the AFC next year? Tennessee. Is there any team you like less? No, and I don't know why I put this at five and a half.

30:58I think I regret that because they could make it nice and easy. And well, I don't want to sway you, but did you go low? No, I had. so initially I penciled in five and a half. And then after I did all the divisions for the AFC and I was like, man, who's the worst team? Like there's going to, we see this every year. There's a four and a half, there's a three and a half, and there's none of those in the AFC that I had. And I, so I ended up with a four and a half. So we will see. The answer is five and a half. Wow. Okay. Nailed me again. This is, this is my new thing. Jesus. This is my jam. Let's just do, keep doing this every week.

31:35Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus 130. I wouldn't go over on that at all. So if you're doing that, you're expecting Cam Ward to get drafted and be good right away. Right. And you're going to say, like, rookie Cam Ward is significantly better than Will Levis, which it's not inconceivable. No, I'm still having nightmares of that game one. I bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie. I bet Will Levis had a giant lead on the Bears, and then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass. staring at pick sixes. It's just not a good thing. My favorite with that with you is when you then get mad at Will Levis like this was his fault.

32:12You bet on him. I can't believe this Will Levis. It's like you can't. No sense at all. He might shouldn't be there today. He threw the game. If we were to write down three games that players threw, quote, whatever. I know, Fandle, we're not getting in trouble. That's the one. That felt like what it would have looked like if somebody actually, yeah, I see. Right. If you had to make a movie about it, that's what it would look like. Well, here's the thing. We only had the Jets at five and a half, Cleveland at five and a half, and Tennessee at five and a half so far. We have no four and a halves. So one of those three will be at four and a half by like June or July, because that's just how this shit goes.

32:49That's right. That's fair. So just to recap, East, 33 wins. North, 35. South, 30. Hmm. Okay. going to the AFC West, which might be good for all we know. Kansas City, 15-2 last year, playing the AFC South and the NFC East. So you're talking Giants are going to suck. Three of those AFC South teams might suck. Houston might not be very good. sorry your Dallas team might not be very good and Washington and Philly would be the two hard games out of those eight but they'll have the first place schedule they're going to be in all the night games but that's about as good of a is there a better division draw than the AFC South NFC East maybe West NFC West AFC South that's pretty good I think one of the teams has both Souths I think that's in the NFC but one of the divisions so I went I went 12 and a half for this what I did.

33:56And I wonder if it's even light. Tell me what it is. It's light. It's 11 and a half. That's wrong. That's very weird. Do your spiel. Just do it. You do it every year. Well, just to bet Chiefs at 6-1, bet Mahomes at 6-1. Just do all of them. Well, first of all, everything you say, they go through it. They had 15 freaking wins last year. Every year, they have a first-place schedule. Every year, they and possibly play the first Thursday night game. Every year, they're going to play on Christmas. Every year, they're going to have six primetime games. They end up with 13, 14, 15 wins. How do you make this 11 and a half?

34:34They won the division by four games last year. All right, the Chargers might be a little better. Raiders a tiny bit better. Is Denver going to be better? I'm all in on over 11 and a half. That is embarrassing. That's ball and board material. Super Bowl 7-1 for them. Mahomes 8-1 MVP. yeah at the Mahomes layaway MVP bet plan was that your idea or houses I can't remember I mean it's I'm not gonna it's just so it should be out there for everybody I just do it just like bet that every year and it'll win three out of five times yeah the KCD like a CD like a savings but yeah that's right you're not gonna wait seven or eight years to cash in on those or Chiefs plus 360 to win the conference just do it just do it every year you win three out of the four years and you're getting incredible multiples on your wagers.

35:27And they had a decent offseason with the free agents. They lost Tooney, but they got Nick Bolt. They extended Bolton, Jalen Moore, Trey Smith. They franchise tag. They're going to be fine. I'm marking that one down. I feel like that's 11 and a half. That's 11 and a half for what? Another week? Come on. What are we doing? Chargers, 11 and 6. Second place schedule. AFC South, NFC East. And I don't know. They lost some guys. Now, some guys weren't playing full seasons for them. The wide receiver room. We'll see what they do in the draft. Running back. I don't know. There's some scope position stuff.

36:11Last year, easy schedule. Overachieved. The season did not end great. And yet, I felt like it's going to be 10.5. because of Harbaugh and Herbert. What'd you have? Wow. I had nine and a half. I don't know. I think that's tough. And you hit it again. You're up four. Wow. Jesus. Look at this. Look at this. Nine and a half. Ten and a half, huh? If the Chiefs are 11 and a half and you thought, I don't know. They're still the Chargers, remember, right? So my thinking was the Harbaugh year two with, They weren't supposed to be as good as they were last year, but they were able to on the fly add some dudes, make some, and now like one more free agency in draft.

37:00Could the arrow be pointing up? But Vegas is saying no. I don't want to screw anything up, but I know some Chargers people. They like the tight end out of Michigan. Love one. Oh, okay. That could be a nice little thing for them. Denver was 10-7 last year, playing a third place schedule because the Chargers passed them. That's helpful. Right. And we have them AFC South, NFC East. I went eight and a half. Would you go? Yeah, I'm right there with you. Eight and a half. It's got to be eight and a half. It's eight and a half. Yeah. Minus 105. So just a whiff of action on that one toward the under. And then last but not least, this one's a hard one.

37:41The Las Vegas Raiders to get Geno Smith. And they got rid of our guy, Antonio Pierce. Yeah. who I don't feel like is probably getting hired anytime soon for another head gig, just be my guess. And they replaced him with a Pumpkin Jack P. Carroll. Right. A lot of gum chewing. Max Crosby gets extended. Fourth place schedule, plus AFC South, plus NFC East. And by your theory, you think, at least in the home games, they might be favored like five times. Yeah. I went five and a half. Oh, I went a little higher. There was six and a half last year. I think they may perceive this Geno Smith thing as an upgrade, even though they only had four ones.

38:29I said six and a half. And you nailed it exactly. And not only did you nail it, minus 130. Now, action on the Raiders. I should have seen that one. Interesting. You're killing me. You beat me by five. So this is the... I'm firing all my scouts and all my helpers. I don't know why I'm just off left and right. Or here's the thing. Maybe I'm not off. Maybe we'll look back in December and be like, oh, Simmons' first instinct. Maybe we should listen to him. Well, that's what you should do. You should mark your biggest differences and say, hey, that's going to be. So 36 wins for that division. That's the tops.

39:06That's more than the AFC North projected. 36 for the West. And by the way, God bless Pete Carroll, but he's in his mid-70s. Gino Smith, 34 years old I'm not sure if they Offensive line, would you even go C plus On the offensive line Bowers we like But yeah, there was a lot of work left With that team They're still 4th best in the division And there's still 2 games behind Denver According to this I mean, they just drew the short straw With that division That's the big issue All those games are going to stink Alright, one more break And then we'll do the NFC

40:08All right. During that commercial break, I licked my wounds. I fired two people and trying to come back. There's only 16 teams left and you're up five. You found your calling. You found the perfect game. And you're cheating. Duke was in your corner and he almost didn't let you out for the seventh round here. And you're like, no, no, no. Don't you dare throw that towel in. But all right. Let's see what you got. I think it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight.

40:39Philadelphia are defending Super Bowl champions I know that kills you just to hear those words disgusting and guess what they have endless amounts of money to just I know they lost some starters they didn't lose any of like their best eight or nine guys it doesn't make sense I don't care I get people you know I have smart people telling me oh just follow the money just roll it over and just keep rolling it over and the Bills do eventually. Okay, cool. Creative accounting. It's what the Niners did. I know it's sour grapes, but whatever. They're paying$50 million a year for the QB, $57 million for the two receivers, and now$12 million a year for Saquon Barkley.

41:18Somehow that's all legal under the cap. They have Jalen Carter coming. They paid Bond, who's like, oh, yeah, oh, my God, somebody's going to grab him. Nope, they kept him. But I get the model because you have to just keep nailing the draft. You let the veterans go and you move those draft picks, you move in and it makes sense. It's just, it's just weird. But when the salary cap goes up 30 million every year, I just can't believe any team can afford two primetime receivers and a quarterback. Yeah. The Cowboys did that. They would be 90 million over the cap. Like we, we, we just want to pay three guys and we can't do it.

41:51So. Right. But, but maybe you can pay the three guys. Maybe that's the lesson. You pay Parsons, Lamb and Dak and everybody else could pay three guys. Why can't you pay three guys? Yeah. Just draft Georgia offensive linemen and defensive tackles. And in two, three years, they'll all work out. It'll be fine. It'll dominate. What was your reaction to the, whatever was going on on the social media the last 24 hours with the guy claiming that Dak might get traded to the Cleveland Browns? I know you saw it. I ignored it. I, I, you know, Can't even figure out how that would work. Well, you know, it's like, you know, when we have friends telling us, you got to bet this, You got to bet this.

42:26And depending on the friend, you're like, no, I'm going to stay away. That's kind of how I was with this rumor mill. Like whoever was passing it along, I was like, oh, that guy has more credibility. This is dumb. But yeah. So the thing would be, you would take Deshaun's contract and trade Dak and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your, I don't even get, but now you wouldn't have a quarterback. They would, they would have to lead Jerry off in handcuffs, a straight Jack. The guys at the White Coast would just have to take him away at that point. He's like, I've traded Dak Prescott for Deshaun and a future second round pick.

43:01And I'm going to become a professional actor. Right. Taylor Sheridan is building a new show around me as an aging NFL owner who's lost his mind. Take three cheerleaders of your choice too. I'm out of here. Whatever you want. Philadelphia, 14 and three last year. Yikes. That's not true, is it? Yeah. playing the NFC North and the AFC West. That's pretty hard. Yeah. So your easiest games are Vegas and Chicago out of those eight. Not to mention first place schedule. They're playing Thursday, the first game of the year. Not to mention no one ever wins this division two years in a row. You're just not allowed.

43:45I really wanted to go 12 and a half and I couldn't do it and I'm an 11 and a half. That's where I am. it's got to be 11 and a half. And it's 11 and a half. This is the best. Even money both ways. I can't. I swear I'm not cheating. Philly minus 165 to win the division, by the way. Oh, just for the record, since we did the AFC wins, Casey's minus 150, Texans plus 140, Baltimore minus 135, and the Bills are minus 210. Those are new too. Those divisions weren't up till today either. That's great. Oh, really? Yeah, that's great. No, they just had conference and Super Bowl. Pats plus 650?

44:30Bengals plus 190? So it looks like the opportunity would be the AFC South if you can talk yourself into the Colts of plus 290, and I'm not sure I want to talk myself into that. Plus 290, I don't know. What did you say Texans were? 160 or something? Texans are plus 140, Jags are plus 250. Plus 140 Texans? yeah I like the Texans we can't bet the Souths come on let's not do it and then Chargers plus 330 and Broncos plus 490 Raiders 12 to 1 if you want to get excited about that for your division well let's do the O runners first alright coming back so we have Washington 12 and 5 last year I forgot they won that many games I knew they were a playoff team but shit it.

45:18That's an unbelievable record. The Pats got 12 and 5. I'm going to lose my mind. Their over-under was 6 and a half and they won 12 games. Oh, yeah. They almost doubled it. Yep. Second place schedule, NFC North, AFC West. I battled between 9 and a half and 10 and a half for this and I went 10 and a half. Alright, I upped it from 9 and a half to 10. So I have 10. You have 10 and a half. Motherfucker. 9 and a half. Really? Wow. Wow, no trust. Little action on the under two. Minus 120 under. Do you think they're spending in a dumb way here? Like, you know, like give Ertz and Debo. Well, I don't, is he going to make a difference?

46:01Laramie Tunsell, I feel like they, Houston gave him up too easily. Maybe there's something there more than Bobby Wagner. Some of these signings, Kinlaw, I don't know. How is this team three wins worse if Daniels is healthy? let's say he plays the whole year. How would they not be a 10-win team? Oh, three worse because they won 12. Yeah, they won 12. And they won in the playoffs. Now 9.5 is their over-under? That seems weird to me. I think they're anticipating the schedule is going to be harder, but that's kind of nuts. I wonder if they look at point differential from last year. Was that really a 12-win year or wasn't, you know?

46:43Also, really good coaching staff. Nobody left. They kept everybody. That's a weird one. I'm going to mark that one down. So plus 100 over 9.5 wins for them right now. The Cowboys. Did you go 8-9 or 7-10 last year? What did we decide? You tried to give me an extra win. They were 7-10. Disgusting. 7-10. Playing the NFC North and the AFC West in Philly and Washington four times. And that was enough for me to go 7.5. Oh. I bumped it to eight. I figured this is a team that won 12 games three years in a row. They fell apart last year. This is America's team. They can't give everyone free money. I have eight.

47:28What is it? Seven and a half. Here comes the comeback, baby. I'm back down to minus five. Wow. Seven and a half and plus 100 on the over. I like the ender. That's so embarrassing, man. That is embarrassing. Why are you guys going to be good? What's the case? Just Dak being healthy? We were selectively aggressive during the free agent period. We extended Osa. We got Fowler, guy at 10 and a half sacks last year. What does selectively aggressive mean? I've never heard that phrase in my life. I'm telling you exactly what it is. You sign Javante Williams and Miles Sanders. You get not only your punter, your punt returner, and your long snapper tied up.

48:06You get that? We're good. Seven and a half. Wow. Might have to bring Babydoll back in to wish you a lot of luck. Wow. This is a 12-year team two years ago. The 12-win team. They're not going to win the Super Bowl in the 2020s, which will mean three straight Super Bowl-less decades for you. But at least you have Juan Soto. How dare you? You have Juan Soto. I'm praising you. We're in the Mets at opening day of the season today. Juan Soto is going to be the Cowboys quarterback in like three years. You'll see. New York Giants, 3-14 last year. Tough division. plus NFC North, AFC West. And they're paying Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for some reason.

48:51Why not pick? Why not just pick one of those guys? Yeah. They got to get hard knocks back in New York. I know Joe Shane's going to lock his doors. I got to let anybody in. But they have that quarterback room with Jameis, Russ, and Tommy DeVito. What laughs? And that's before they even throw any pick sixes. what did they possibly see from Russell Wilson in the last six games of the season with the Steelers to think he's anything more than like a$5 million quarterback I do not understand it what's the game plan for that and you have Jameis who's I would probably rather have Jameis at gunpoint wouldn't really want to eat in the room who would you rather have Jameis or Russell Wilson coin flip so you're paying one guy$4 million and the other guy like$20 yeah I like it.

49:41This was my favorite Cowboy signing. The free agency, Russell Wilson to the Giants. It was the best. I mean, honestly, like... You were selectively aggressive and cheering for it. Well, we're not getting 2015 Russell Wilson. He doesn't run. He's bad in the pocket. If that offensive line was anything like it was with Daniel Jones, it's going to be a disaster for him, right? It went bad for him in Seattle near the end. He went to Denver. It went so bad that they paid him to go away and then went to the Steelers who completely quit on everybody in the last four weeks of the season. And now you have Dayball and Shane basically trying to save their jobs, telling us, we don't want to take a rookie quarterback three because we won't be here when he starts being good.

50:24And now that's Wilson versus Russell is Wilson versus Winston's nuts. But I'm the other way. I'm like, why even keep Dayball around? Because you're not going to win with this team and this is going to be his last year, right? This Russell Wilson thing. I mean, they're a mess. They offered Darius Slate more money than they did Saquon. What was that? Yeah. I picked a four and a half for this. I think this is going to be our first four or three. I'm going to say five. I don't even know why, but. Okay. Five and a half. You win again. Is it really? Yeah. Okay. I might want to book that five and a half from people.

51:04Yeah, that's a disaster. What's the division odds? division odds Giants 20 to 1 is that the biggest one we've had so far? Cleveland's 23 to 1 Dallas 7 to 1 Washington plus 250 Eagles minus 165 I like don't mind that Washington's a play Washington's a play I don't mind that one at all okay NFC North so the NFC East 34 wins AFC East 33 I don't know about that I don't agree with that Giants number at all In fact, I'm going to make my first market down prediction. I think that's four and a half by the summer. I don't think that stays there. Can I tell a quick story? Being in Vegas. I bet the Giants have the worst record in the league last year.

51:52And they were three and 14, right? But it tied with three other teams. So it's a four-way split. So I go to cash this. I don't have to say what casino this is. But I go to cash it in. So I was about to win$1 ,300. so if you split it four ways, I went 300 and changed. So I presented to the counter. It's a miracle I'm cashing a futures ticket from last year. And the guy's like, nope, this is a loser. I was like, well, how is this a loser? I pull up on my phone, there's four teams with three wins. Then he brings this guy over. He couldn't have been older than 19 years old. He's got this thing that resembles a phone that he's looking into.

52:28The Giants lose on a tiebreaker to the Browns and he lists six tiebreaking scenarios and they lost on the six tie. I was like, wait a minute, isn't this dead heat rules? And I was like, no, we don't do Teddy, sir. This is how we do it. And you lost on the sixth tiebreaker. I'm like, all right, I don't even know what you're looking into, by the way. You could be, you know, you could be, I'm not sure what you could be, but, and I hate when they're indignant about it. Like, um, yeah, like TSA is like when you fly from and they're like, you have to take your laptop out. Like, all right, well, I just flew in from Fort Worth and I didn't have to.

53:01And they're like, they're so dickish about it. But anyway, I lost. because of the sixth tiebreaker. That feels like fraud. I know. It's like all this rooting I did for nothing. Kind of wish you had named the casino, but... All right. That's unbelievable. Yeah. NFC North, Detroit, 15-2 last year. That's not happening again. They do play the NFC East and the AFC North. So, Giants, that's an easy game. Maybe your team's easy. Steelers Browns easy, maybe Steelers are easy if they don't get a quarterback a lot of trouble with this I'm going to say 11.5 that's what I have, 11.5 is it higher? it is 10.5 that's bad, that's wrong well I'll tell you this much there's action on the under of all things.

54:03Wow. Minus 140 under 10 and a half. I'm sorry. That's wrong. This team had the year from hell injury wise. You're not going to find a worse example of like a team that was plagued with injuries and they won 15 games and now you're taking four and a half games off their total. They can get their whole defense back. I know the division's tough. They lost both coordinators. Yeah. That's not nothing. Right. They had a horrible end to the season. Yep. And it's the Detroit Lions. Four and a half win differential? They replaced them, though. They replaced them with a cornerback everybody likes. They did.

54:45I don't know. And we haven't seen the draft yet. I like the over. I'm saying I like the over. Why is that four and a half difference? Like, Minnesota's not going to win 14 games. So they'll, right? I don't even know that the division's better. So you would bet the Lions plus 120 at over 10 and a half right now. Yeah. 11 and six. I really like that one too. I almost, that line's so suspicious. I almost feel like we don't know something. Right. Like, what do they know that we don't know? Dan Campbell bit all the kneecaps off. There's none left. Dan Campbell has been deranged all off season. Minnesota was 14 and three last year.

55:29and they changed their quarterback from the great Sam Darnold to J.J. McCarthy who we have not seen play NFL yet tough for schedule second place I can't this is the biggest drop off 14-3 but I went 9.5 for them I don't see how it can be in the 10s I went 8.5 I think this is an impossible one to pick I think 9 and 8 would be good for them you motherfucker is it? Eight and a half. Yes. That is plus 115 right now. You're really good at this. Guessing the over-unders, your final destiny. This is it. You found the gimmick. We've been podcasting since 07. You figured it out. Unbelievable. I did it. You're going to have to pull me into NDA.

56:20I think you've clinched. I think I'd have to get all the rest ones just to tie you. That's it. What a beating this was. Yeah, so that is a full-fledged, we don't trust J.J. McCarthy number. So that's the biggest drop-off, 5.5 from 14.5? Yeah, 5.5 drop-off, and J.J. McCarthy might be good. Right, right. Vikings, dare I say a little, nobody believes in us. There's still some Aaron Rodgers. 14-3 last year. A lot of the guys are still in this locker room. They went 14-3. Yeah. All right, Green Bay. They went 11-6 last year. Yeah. Third place schedule. And I'll probably regret this, but I went nine and a half.

57:02I did think about the 10 and a half. It's got to be nine and a half. And it's nine and a half. But plus 115 on the over. So they're minus 135 on the under. I think that's just right for them. Yeah. So division odds now. Detroit plus 110. Green Bay plus 250. Bears plus 450. and Minnesota with the worst odds of anyone at plus 550. But I should have done that after we did the Bears. Right. Well, now you're going to, you can maybe lock in there. Maybe I can cheat. Well, I had eight and a half for them anyway. They're five and 12 last year. NFC East, AFC North. They spent a lot of money in the lines.

57:51They're going to have a high draft pick. and with the way the division's kind of fallen back to them a little bit, it seems like an 8.5. What'd you have? I went 9 only because it was 9 last year, right? Like, wasn't that weird? Remember we were betting them not to make the playoff. Do we bet them under 9 or do we bet them not to make the playoffs? I feel like they're in love with the Bears. The fans are in love with the Bears. I know they fixed that offensive line. I have 9. It is 8.5. Okay. Plus 120 for the over on that one. Hmm. Not touching that. Not touching. Yeah, that is a stay away. Okay.

58:30So 19 and 18. So that's 37 wins. Is that the most? That's the most for any division. Yeah. Two more. NFC South, Tampa Bay, 10 and 7. Feel good story. Playing the NFC West and the AFC East. so potentially I don't really love anybody in the NFC West and we might not love three of the four teams in the AFC East so this is a nice little scenario for the South and then they're bringing their receivers back bringing the team back it felt like a 9.5 to me oh really? I don't think you can make any of these teams over 8.5 that's what I did and you were correct Eight and a half. This is embarrassing for you.

59:25I'm at the stage now where I'm bringing in the shortstop to pitch the ninth inning. He's throwing his knuckleball. I mean, this could be just a giant Bill Simmons meme for 90 minutes. This is great. I'm going to make the Walton Goggins finding out that his friend had sex with everyone's Thailand face. Minus 125 action for the Bucs, FYI. Can't do it. no south no south talk till week 12 New Orleans oh no not New Orleans Atlanta is next so they're playing a second place schedule plus the NFC West plus the AFC East and they went 8-9 last year full year of pennocks I put 8-1 for these guys little whiz of weird offseason already I just went 8 okay I don't know why you keep doing the round numbers but I'm not going to question your process since you're beating me by six teams.

1:00:21Seven and a half is our answer. Wow, you won that one too. So that one. Motherfucker. I mean, that's just so much is up in the air with his cousins and they lose their center. I was feeling so good after my 27 and five, but now I'm in shambles. No, you're good. It's such a good year last year. Then I lose the Super Bowl. I get killed, Casey. And now my whole, that thing's falling apart. Maybe the under should be me. I think I've dropped by five wins. This doesn't matter. You picked the winners 27 times. Just picking the number. I don't know what the hell to do. I don't know what to do with the number.

1:00:54I care about dumb shit like this, so it matters. New Orleans. God, are they going to be terrible? 5-12, NFC West, AFC East, and the third place schedule. And they're in cap hell. They brought back Carr with this weird, well, we're screwed anyway. How about we'll guarantee your money? They have the ninth pick in the draft. Yeah. Brandon Cooks, Jawan Johnson, same old names. New coach, but they had like the last pick of the coaches. It was like they went to go get a dog from the kennel and every other choice was gone. And they're like, we have this one left. Any interest? I went five and a half and it might be a win too high.

1:01:39I went round number because I couldn't think about it too much. Six for me. You hit it again. Really? You doing this round number thing is bullshit. There's been no round numbers the whole time. Vandal has round numbers. I'm just trying to do this correctly. What? I can't believe you. You should try harder. This is like the most you've ever cheated. There are round numbers. I looked last year. Pick five and a half or six and a half. I was like, I'll just take six. It's like price is right. You're just gaming the system. I sent you all the numbers from last year. You could have noticed that there weren't halves on several of them.

1:02:12Well, it's six and a half this time. we haven't had a round number yet wait is it six and a half or six yeah it's six and a half you won because you picked six because you cheated and then last one is Carolina five and twelve last year somehow I still can't believe I didn't win my when I was in Boston that time and I bet the adjusted under four and a half wins for them and somehow Bryce Young came in and just smoked it they ended up with five wins I lost I still, and the other one was the adjusted under on the pats, three and a half. And, and, uh, Joe Milton came in at the end. Joe Milton. Yeah.

1:02:54He's going to be a cowboy. Joe Milton, the, the, the next, the worst quarterback. Anyway, he came in. By the way, that was nuts. We don't think about that enough that Andy Dalton was, you know, totally content to bring them to another three and 14 year. Then at the car accident. you should see if you're covered your auto insurance covers that bet like if you have to pay the deductible I won't try to find out at the casino you went to I went 5.5 for the Panthers I did too okay the answer is 6.5 Jesus what the hell what are we doing come on why are they better than 5 wins last year holy moly where do they pick up this extra 2 games divisions divisions, Tampa plus 135, Atlanta plus 230, New Orleans plus 480, and Carolina action started out in the fourth slot, but now they're plus 410.

1:03:51People are banging the Panthers. What am I missing? We may have to do that, but no South talk. Hey, what was your bet last year for the South? They'd have fewer than how many wins? We, one of our locks that we hit was that they would have less than 30 wins, which they did. and then we had an NFC East first South bet. I think just the top two teams in the NFC East almost beat the entire NFC South. So it's 29 this year if you add the 7.5, 8.5, 6.5, 6.5. It's 13 and 16. 29. Hit it again. I gotta be honest. We've done 28 teams. I think my single favorite is New Orleans under 6.5 so far. Why are they gonna be good?

1:04:35What is good about them? what's the case no they're old they're messy they came out they're a great start last year they were 2-0 scored like 100 points and then then they were the Saints like if we were to say who's going to have the worst record in the league next year they would at least be one of the teams we batted around yeah I think that's smart NFC West they're playing the NFC South and the AFC South which I thought the NFC West yeah that's the best draw I thought the NFC West was probably going to suck this year but that made me rethink it the Rams are in the one spot with the schedule.

1:05:07They were 10-7 last year.

1:05:14first play schedule on the one hand but then playing the South kind of messed with my head a little bit. I went 10.5 for them. Oh, wow. I went 9. So let's see. I know you don't like the round numbers. 9.5. That's me. Minus 145. Listen. I think this is going to be ultimately good for me because I think my instincts will be the correct instincts. I do. I like them because of their schedule and because I don't think their division is going to be good. Do you like Arizona, San Francisco, or Seattle this year? No. After the Super Bowl, I picked my way too early team odds-wise, value-wise. The Rams were 20-1.

1:06:00I was like, wow, that's pretty good. They were a couple plays away from beating the champion Eagles. and then they did a smart thing, signed Stafford. Awesome. I think Devontae Adams has juice left. Flip-puffing to Adams. Yeah, it's good. They're in good shape, I think. Nine and a half is a nice number, too. Yeah, I mean, one of the great things about this process is, especially after the draft and when we get to the summer, I'm sure we'll flip-flop on a bunch of these instincts. But I just think the Rams, best coach, they've had success. Stafford's kind of near the end. This seems like a pretty good division bet type of thing for me.

1:06:39Seattle, they were 10-7 last year. Same South versus South. Second place schedule. And I went 8.5 for them. I said 7.5. I hit this one. 8.5. Really? Yeah. I mean, really? You won one? I did. Really? I won one. I'm remembering all of this for Guess the Lions this year. I don't like these moves. These could go very badly with Sam Darnold and Cooper Cupp. I don't know. I didn't like the Cooper Cupp signing at all. There were so many bad stats about him getting open over the last five years. In 2020, he was open 90 % of the time, and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold, though, he was 14-3 last year.

1:07:22I know. So now he's an eight-win quarterback. That's the only thing that makes me nervous. But I want to see if they fix their offensive line completely through the draft. We'll see. Arizona's eight-nine. No Geno, no Metcalf. Arizona was 8-9 last year. And if Seattle's 8-1 with this South-South thing, I think Arizona has to be 8-1. So that's what I picked. Maybe you'll beat me here. I said 7. 7? Round number bullshit. It's higher. 8-1 plus 105. five. Well, at least I'm ending in a way with my fans can at least have some hope. I'm going to let you win these last couple. You took out your starters.

1:08:06You're like Buffalo in week 17 and Joe Milton let you up. Plus one of five. And then last but not least, San Francisco, who lost so many people. It's like a whole paragraph of all the people they lost. This is so tough. And yet they were six and 11 last year. That was the rebuilding year. But now they're in rebuilding year. They're going to have to pay Purdy, but they are playing the South and the South. I said six and a half would you have? Oh, wow. I had eight and a half. Okay. Wow. This is the biggest disparity we've had. It's got to be my way, right?

1:08:43How is this rate? Ten and a half. That's too high. That's way, way high. What in the hell? what am I missing you know you read enough about them it's like yeah these were good moves these were good cuts Debo Samuel all these cuts everything they did Greenlaw I don't know I don't I thought this was like a blow it up rebuilding year for them wait so they're favored to win the division

1:09:12I'm stunned by that yeah San Francisco plus 155 Rams plus 180 Seahawks plus 490 Cardinals plus 500 So I have to bet this now. If I was four wins off, even though we don't know what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me. Yeah, that's atrocious. That's not good. I'm stunned. That's not good. We got to go under there. Also, like, how do we know McCaffrey's even going to be remotely where he was? Exactly. That's the way to go. Yeah, I don't know why. Well, that was really fun. That was a good time. And they have Mac Jones, though. Did you mention that? They did sign him for two years.

1:09:49I forgot to mention Mac Jones. The MVP is Lamar plus 450, Allen plus 550, Burrow plus 600. So the Niners are probably like seventh best to win the Super Bowl? I hope that's not true. For the conference, they have the third best odds, 9-1. What am I missing? What's happening? I think it's way more likely they have a year from hell again and Shanahan is like out of there. I missed the whole offseason. I really do. I was there for the whole offseason. I didn't see anything that made me think that they were going to be awesome. I thought they lost a shitload of people. I mean, do we feel like they hit their drafts the last couple of years?

1:10:29Like, you know, they're trying to trade Iyuk as we speak, and I don't even think they can do that. Nobody wants to play there. Plus he's coming off an ACL. Yeah, they were riding high off the Purdy, not having to pay him. Now it's, I got to look into that. We're missing something. Let's do a quick parent corner before we go. All right. My son Archie's home on spring break. They do quarters. So he gets home and I say, like, how are your grades? And he kind of like half-asses a response and everything and immediately shifts gears and tells me he's on season four of The Sopranos. And I was like, oh, that's great.

1:11:04That's better. You could have told me you're mafia cum laude right now. I mean, that's all I care about. That's what college should be all about, right? spend tens of thousands of dollars a semester to catch up on classic tv shows in your dorm and it's like reading a great novel yeah it really is so i was like oh sorry so you're in season four you got like a season and a half i was like i want to watch the finale with you and he's like i don't know once i get going i really i don't know am i really going to be able to stop short and not watch the finale for like a month i'm like no i want to watch with you and it's like he's like all right i'll try but it made me think like if you had to watch a finale with your kids who are viewing for the first time, which ones would you put up there?

1:11:47Sopranos. Only Sopranos. Anything else? Breaking Bad or not as much? No. Only Sopranos. Just for the reaction. Right. There was this clip going around of people watching Tommy get shot in Goodfellas. Did you see that? Different reactions. Right, yeah, yeah. And I would think that would be the TV version of that, watching people react like, wait, what? Wait, what? You hated that. That was the maddest I've ever seen non-sports related. I'm still mad that you're not mad about it. I really do. Yeah, now I think it's great, but I know it's going to happen. I know it's happening now. You liked it right away.

1:12:26You did, but it's like... I did not like it right away. It's nonsensical. I guess no one hated it as much as I did, but I had a terrible reaction to it. I didn't want to be friends with anyone who liked it. I like that. That is such a cheap way to go out. But the answer is he left it open ended because he's a movie maker. He wanted to maybe make a movie. What? That's the only answer. So he didn't die. This is dumb. He set it up that this is what death is like. You don't know when it's coming and everything goes black. Bullshit. So my son, like five days ago, for spring break, went to Portugal.

1:13:07in Spain because he's in this, he plays the upright bass and he's in this jazz band. So a bunch of the jazz people went to play in all these places. So they, my wife drives him like in the middle of the night to the airport because they have like a six o 'clock flight and then he's flying for two days straight. I wanted to read you all of our interactions with him since he's been gone. He's been gone since Friday night and WhatsApp because they don't have a messages anything. First of all, she only hears from him once on WhatsApp, then puts me on a text with them. Miss you guys too. That was one.

1:13:53We are in Rondo and are about to perform in four minutes, second form of communication with him. Sent us one, two pictures of, you can see of a tree and a mountain. Nice. Um, my wife asked, how is the performance? No answer. Sends a picture of the dog, Mrs. Eve, nothing. Um, performances have been great. It's super nice out here. That was the third communication. Miss home though. T-H-O. Great. Picture. Um, need a photo of your face. My wife says nothing. Then silence again. Hey guys, super long day. We left at nine and just got back. my wife responds, that's your report? Anything else happening?

1:14:40Is it any fun? Sends us back this picture. What is it? I couldn't say. It's just a picture of him and his friend with the mouth behind them. And he says, it is fun. It's just a lot. Yeah. And that's it. Those have been all of our interactions with him. Has he tried to call us once? Only one picture of his face? and I have no idea if he's even alive in Spain right now. I was trying to, my wife and I were talking about, I was trying to remember, was I this much of a dick when I was 17? And I think the answer is probably yes, right? Yeah. We didn't want to deal with our parents in any way, shape or form when we were 17.

1:15:19Right. We didn't have WhatsApp and anything else like that too. So it wasn't as easy. So maybe that's a little, yeah, but maybe we - It's hard to believe there wasn't one moment where he's like, you know what? I'm going to send my parents an update. Just a long paragraph. Here's the best thing I ate. Just check in, say hi to grandma for me, whatever. Nope, nothing. I think the big news is who the hell knew that Ben Simmons played the upright bass after all these years on an international level? This is great. I was an international bass player. Yeah. How about that he went to Portugal and Spain, two countries I haven't been to yet.

1:15:57I don't know. Who could figure that? I bet on them in soccer. I have a bunch of Portuguese. I didn't mean to mention Portugal and Spain in a non-soccer context. You just reminded me. Yeah. There you go. Anyway, that's Parent Corner. The other thing is we're doing this live rewatchables tonight in Boston. And my daughter goes to college here. So I left her a ticket. I'm like, are you going to come tomorrow night? She's like, I don't know. It's a big night. Meaning like it's a big night where they go out. So she's 50-50. I might need to have more kids that's where I really ended you know with those older guys when they just like all of a sudden they have the second family and like huh that's weird maybe I just need to start again yeah now they'll come around I think you need to hold the rewatchables at the place where she's going out that's what you have to figure out maybe go to the bar maybe that's where they have to yeah 50-50 might go might not depends on what's going on tonight you son of a bitch you guys are doing good fellas tonight No, we're doing Good Will Hunting tonight.

1:17:00Oh, Good Will Hunting. Good. Yeah. Goodfellas is playing at the Low Coolidge Corner Film Festival. Oh, man. That's going to be so much fun. So much fun. All right, Sal. Congrats on absolutely kicking my ass. If that was a baseball game, that would have been 17 to 3. What's your favorite MLB future? Mercy rule. I went Soto over 33 and a half home runs. And what was my other one I had? I have Texas Rangers to make the playoffs. Oh, I like it. And so I like, yeah, I think they're good. And I had Mad Dog Russo on Cousin Sal's Winning Weekend. You can see it Friday on Sandal TV. And by the way, I went through, I'll send you the clip.

1:17:38I was like, you know, Simmons and I do this podcast for the last 15 years. We've closed it with Good Job By You. We stole it from you. I said, can you give me a good job by you? And he's like, well, first of all, you tell Bill, I watched three episodes of the Celtics documentary, and it is dynamite. I mean, you got him and his father and talking and Koozie and Russell. And then he went through all that. I'm like, all right, I'll tell him. And then he gave me a good job by you. Like, I thought he was going into convulsions. Like, it was great. I'll send it to him. Oh, that sounds amazing. All right.

1:18:11Check that out. That's on Against All Odds, right? Against All Odds. Yeah, yeah. But you're also on the Ringer Gambling shit, too. That's right. Yeah. All right. So there you go. How are you doing to March Madness, by the way? You winning? I'm doing all right. I mean, you can't. it's hard to lose when it's all chalk. I mean, it's... I know you hate it. Are you doing three favorite parlays? I get irrationally angry at how much your irrational behavior I've been following. I'm just doing a bit. I like the... That's good. I know you are. I know you are. I was on the thread we had with JJ and Raheem in house.

1:18:43Just, oh, my bracket. Oh, my God. It's busted. It's dumb, but it's still guys coming to Vegas. By the way, it's not like 20 years ago. They charged like 500 bucks to get into Caesars. anywhere you want to see anywhere it's 400 like ask kyle it's 400 or more it's um oh my god anyway it's a lot of fun good job to you great to see you thanks to kyle and serena how as always don't forget you can watch this on the ringer movies youtube channel or as a video podcast on spotify south good job by you good job by you buddy

1:19:24It's with him on the wayside. I'm a bruised son. I never was. I don't have.

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