Guess the Lines Week 1, Plus Favorite NFL Futures With Cousin Sal

13:12Cousin Sal:Yeah, right, right, right.

13:12Bill Simmons:So I try to get amnesia if I see any number, but I couldn't avoid it on that one. I almost forget.

13:16Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's a tough one to forget, but I almost forget immediately. Did you say 8-4-1? I wrote that the defending champ is 17-4 as a designated home team in the last 21. I guess that's before they started doing this Thursday game.

13:28Bill Simmons:Yeah, I had the kickoff game. Kickoff game. I think that's a little different then because sometimes they would have this on Sunday. I'm pumped for this one. I will say this. I think the Pats are a live dog in this one. And I'm not saying this as Pats fan bill. Like Seattle has some secondary stuff going on. They have Charbonnets. It's not, you know, not going to be there yet. They're basically riding this rookie running back and the Pats have eight months to think about this game and revenge. And I don't know. I just, I love the Seahawks. I like their overs. We talked about it. We're going to talk about them more in the futures thing, but I like catching them here instead of week 12, I guess would be my point.

14:04Bill Simmons:I like it in that. You know what I mean? Yeah. Like they don't have their stuff settled. They thought the safety they took in the second round was going to actually really play for them. He's out for the year. He broke his ankle. I think the cornerback stuff's a little shaky with them. So it's a nice spot for the Pats. Devil's advocate.

14:19Cousin Sal:Devil's advocate. Drake, maybe because there isn't as much time in between the Super Bowl and, you know, game one. He's going to be a little scared again when he sees that defense. Going to do that thing where he drops the ball as soon as he gets it.

14:30Bill Simmons:I feel like you just root against Drake Maynow. That was so much fun. I like this. I've never been rooted against any of your quarterbacks. You should try it. It's fun. Thursday night, the Rams are playing the 49ers and it's in Australia. And both teams have done different travel plans for this. You guys talked about it a little on Ringer Wiseguys on Friday. This has become the most fascinating strategy thing. I can't believe how different the two things is. And it's one game. Whoever wins, that will just now become the strategy for the rest of mankind. The Rams have decided to fly in 24 hours before the game and then just get the fuck out right after.

15:09Bill Simmons:And the 49ers are going to get there. They're going to try to acclimate. I've asked around. I don't know if you've asked around, but anyone I know who's done this flight thinks this is insane by the Rams. Like, actually, abjectly insane. What's your take?

15:22Cousin Sal:My take is I want to write down every week the big three narratives of the week. And if you bet accordingly, how do you do? I bet you don't do as well. And this narrative is, like you said, the Rams are getting here too late. It's a little bit of an arrogant move by the Rams. And for the 49ers, it was easy. Let's say, let's fly as far away from that cancer box as early as we can on the practice field. But yeah, I think you need that flight. This is not like a three-hour flight. This is from Philly to Miami or something. This is going to... I mean, you're going to want to stare at the toilet moving backwards for three days before you want to practice.

16:00Cousin Sal:There's a lot of good stuff to look at.

16:02Bill Simmons:What's the furthest you've flown? Probably Hawaii. but like why no we we don't know you've gone to europe what was that 11 hours that's right yep i just don't 24 hours and i can't really sleep on planes to begin with and i feel like i would lose my mind i heard palisero was talking about this on the ringer nfl show because he's he's got to go he's going for netflix yep and it was an interesting like uh watching strategy for this where some people think don't watch movies because movies have to start and finish and the movie ends you're like oh my god i still have 20 hours like watch tv shows it's more addictive so watch a show where you have to be like ah i gotta finish and try to just go on like an eight episode binge my point is like this is the it's so long you have to think about shit like this and i just i don't understand i think it's so arrogant by them to do this the other thing is like the 49ers

16:59Cousin Sal:were smart about it because a lot of those guys, they're banged up every preseason, right? They have 10 guys going in who are questionable and they're probably like, hey, we got to get them. If we could leave in June, let's do that because who knows if they're going to survive this flight. Wait, 49ers wanted to get away from their practice field. They left in July. We may have to get our practice squad guys in there because I don't know if anyone's going to make it to the finish line.

17:21Bill Simmons:They might actually become normal human beings again after a week away from the electromagnetism. I can barely speak.

17:29Cousin Sal:I mean, this is like, you know, I wouldn't have taken this as a Rams home game. The Rams forfeited this game as a home game, right? And now it's even less of a home game because they're getting that late. They're giving themselves every disadvantage they can.

17:42Bill Simmons:You guys had a really good conversation about this on Friday or whatever, Thursday, when you did the NFC West and Ringer Wise guys. And we talked about it too last week. I always get a little nervous with the super teams thing. the line is super high and we'll probably I know I have one in our futures draft this feels like a nice time to catch them too at the start of the year with all the hype anyway I have I did Rams minus four for my guess what'd you have we split this I said three and it's three and a half

18:16Cousin Sal:see how that works right in the middle you agree with that I'm trying to think do you think the Australian thing messed it messed it up at all if they had an actual home game is it four and a half five If it's in LA? Yeah. Four and a half? Yeah, five. It's in the Vegas zone. Yeah, they may have screwed themselves here. This is the healthiest the 49ers will be all year.

18:42Bill Simmons:So if you had to bet an underdog between Pats plus three and a half and Niners plus three and a half, you don't have to tell us until Friday, but where are you? Are you leaning or do either of those look tasty? Just say one. You don't have to say the team.

18:54Cousin Sal:I would say San Francisco, but I really want to monitor this narrative, this popular narrative thing and see, like, this is a top three. Like, would you agree this is a top three narrative? The Rams getting there late. Like, we should keep track of the other two.

19:06Bill Simmons:I had, like, anytime a narrative can cause me to have a conversation with my wife, I feel like that's a huge win for the NFL. I was like, what do you think of this? The Niners left six days before the games. The Rams are just saying, fuck it, going right in. Which team would you bet on just knowing that? She's like, that's crazy. the first day you're there, your head's spinning. Like, you're trying... I mean, I was just in Boston for five days. I woke up at, you know, six o 'clock today. I didn't know where I was. And I was only gone five days, and it was in the same country.

19:38Cousin Sal:You should tell her, like, honey, I took your advice. We bet$600 ,000 on the 49ers. Tell her Friday morning. See what she says. Win or lose.

19:47Bill Simmons:Well, these two games are great. Like, we're two for two. And then the Sunday marquee game... which I have as the Texans and the Bills in Houston. And I think, look, we have two different games. We have the What the Fuck Just Happened game, which we covered with Raiders-Pats last year. We'll come up with some candidates for that. Texans-Bills in Houston has all the makings of the overreaction game. Whoever wins this game, it's going to be Sunday night, Monday, Tuesday. This is it. The AFC runs through them, and it doesn't matter which one wins. The AFC is going to run through one of them.

20:25Cousin Sal:And the other way, well, the loser's in a little bit of trouble here. Look at their schedule. We're going over the loser's schedule, no question about it, Sunday night.

20:34Bill Simmons:Yeah, because if the Texans lose, the C.J. Stroud conversation start that night. When we're doing guest aligns on Sunday night, C.J. Stroud will be involved in five minutes. The Bills lose, then you can zag with the, eh, McDermott, he was the fall guy, but their defense looked worse and DJ Moore didn't help them.

20:55Cousin Sal:Josh Allen can only do so much. Yeah, I could hear it. Let's just do that podcast now and then we'll do guest lines.

21:00Bill Simmons:We'll do all 12 narratives. Yeah. I had Texans minus one and a half at home.

21:05Cousin Sal:Yeah, so this is our first Tic Tac. I had Buffalo minus one and a half and I'm right. Now, I could Tic Tac over to your direction, but right now...

21:14Bill Simmons:Wait a second. The Texans, a Super Bowl favorite. Yes. in some respects, the team that I would certainly, coming out of the AFC, the AFC favorite, I guess. A team that I think will be in the Super Bowl against Seattle. Okay. Is not even a home favorite against the Bills who lost to, who'd they lose to in the playoffs?

21:39Cousin Sal:Denver, right? Denver. Yeah. Very last minute. Yeah. You think Houston's going to be in the Super Bowl? They have to make it one and a half. So if this game was in Buffalo, would be Buffalo by three? Yeah, I guess so. I guess so. Well, I don't agree with this at all, so. This is the only week I'm kind of not going to be five points off on a spread because I sort of know, I don't have a model, but the power rankings are kind of right there in terms of over-under wins, right? And I think it's a little bit of a break for Buffalo getting this defense before they get in a rhythm. I know you could say the same about an offense, but this is when they'll play Houston on the turf in September.

22:16Cousin Sal:I think the same kind of thing. That's when I would sign up for that.

22:18Bill Simmons:I thought defenses were better coming out of the gate than offenses. Am I just misremembering that? I don't know if it'll be shut down just, you know, two scores a game like this early on. That's a great game. I have two watchables. I think this is also a really good game just from a, I don't know what's going to happen with either of these teams.

22:38Cousin Sal:Real quick, you're going Texans teaser. No question. Putting that north of seven. If it stays, if it remains one and a half.

22:45Bill Simmons:So we changed the rules for Ringer 107 this year. Wait, is everyone sitting down? You like the rules, right? I like them. Yeah. I guess we can announce this right now. This is huge. We talked FanDuel, our friends, into giving us a very special price on teasers this year. And I think it's going to be for bets up to$50. We are bringing back the teaser. This is a huge passion point of us. We used to love teasers. Basically, everybody changed the juice on them. And it's a little like what happened in Blackjack, where all of a sudden we weren't getting the same price when you get a Blackjack.

23:22Cousin Sal:Can't find any three to two tables. Yeah, yeah.

23:24Bill Simmons:What happened to three to two? We grew up on three to two. Now you're going to be six to five. So we asked FanDuel, and we talked to them, and we lobbied them, and we convinced them to let us bring back teasers this year. So the juice is going to be minus 110 on any one teaser that you do for the week. You use our little code. We'll announce all that stuff later in the week. So you're suggesting Texans to plus seven and a half, maybe even take the over-under down, put it with another game, and that could be a potential fun one for your first tease.

23:57Cousin Sal:Far be it from you or I to explain the way to play a teaser, but the experts say that that's the way to do it. If you take the plus six with a plus one and a half, if you adjust at six points, you're crossing the three, you're crossing the four, you're crossing the six, you're crossing the seven and you like Houston to win this game anyway. So that would be the way. And people say you announced it like you like Vandal has it at minus one 10. Big deal there. Everybody else has these at minus one 39 minus one 40. Right.

24:25Bill Simmons:That's good.

24:26Cousin Sal:That's good. One thing with the teaser,

24:28Bill Simmons:the funniest thing with the teasers like twice a year house and I tease somebody through the zero and Raheem reacts. Like we threw a Molotov cocktail in his apartment. It's the most ups. Nothing upsets Raheem. more than so basically if you had like Texans were minus two and a half and I tease them the plus three and a half that's a good way to basically Molotov cocktail Raheem he can't recover from that for a half hour it's the one thing you can't do

24:57Cousin Sal:you can't tease through the zero ever oh man you're losing a point you're losing a point it's just gone it's a five point

25:04Bill Simmons:it's not a six point I'll do it again this year not going to apologize either the other rewatchables game we have or watchables game. It's in Indianapolis. Our first, I guess our second home underdog, I'm guessing, it's Ravens at Indianapolis. And I think the Ravens are going to be favored. And I have the Ravens favored by two and a half.

25:26Cousin Sal:Let me find this. All right. I had four. I thought the Ravens by four and it's three and a half. So I get this by half a point.

25:38Bill Simmons:Three and a half. Yep. I've skipped somehow I'm so out of practice I skipped the other one that's alright we'll do that one first yeah Baltimore 3.5 Indianapolis a team that I think a lot of people are pretty lukewarm on everyone wants to see Daniel Jones everyone's excited about the Ravens everybody already has them penciled in for 6-1 start 7 I have multiple Ravens bets God I hate the hook I hate that this is a 3.5 this makes me nervous this feels like a classic. I don't know. I don't like it.

26:14Cousin Sal:Don't you feel like just whether you like it or not, if it's a team you like, if it's a team you picked last week to go way over the total or over the total versus a team you pick to go under, just go with what you have, right? For week one. Like if you have to, if you have to look stupid, then it's on you for wasting research for three months. That's kind of what I'm doing here. But that was my column.

26:36Bill Simmons:I wrote mid 2000s. I wrote the Symbotics column. And it was basically like, you have the whole offseason to figure out who you like. And you got to stick to your guns the first two, three weeks.

26:47Cousin Sal:It's the only time we're going to be right. And I feel like Daniel Jones, this is another narrative, right? Either he gets buried by the media or praised as the next Sam Darnold. I feel like there's no in between. Right.

26:57Bill Simmons:I will probably, my guess is I would probably take the Ravens money line and put that with something because the hook scares me. Tease it through zero. Were you up or down on the Colts? I can't remember. No, I'm down. You were under, right? It's one of my true unders.

27:13Cousin Sal:Yeah. Yeah.

27:13Bill Simmons:Okay. The other watchable is an awesome game. Bengals-Bucks. Fantasy guys all over the place in this game. It's in Cincinnati. The Bengals just continue to be the sexiest offseason team. Everybody's just all in. People love them. And everybody loves the Bucks at the Ringer, too. I heard your NFC South pod. You and I talked about it. But you had the NFC South when we did over-unders, everybody going 7-10. I made an impassioned case why I thought Tampa was great value. Even if you look this weekend, Tampa over 8.5. So just to go 9-8 in a shitty division, it was still pretty good odds. I think it was like plus 110 just for them to win nine games.

27:56Bill Simmons:I'm in on Tampa. I was psyched when DeBundo was also in on them because I was waiting for him to make some long, impassioned case why they were fool's gold. But I'm like him. I like the front seven. I think they're going to score. I think Baker was hurt last year. I'm not scared of the Bulls thing yet. They usually start out fast and then fade as the year goes along. And I don't know. I just like this spot for them. So I went Bengals minus three was my pick. All right.

28:24Cousin Sal:Bengals minus three. Now I lost this. I said Bengals minus three. It's three and a half. So we split it.

28:31Bill Simmons:God, I haven't hit one yet.

28:33Cousin Sal:I don't know, man. I just, I'm really going to, when you tell me, you're like, oh, I made all these NFC South bets, futures, I'm like, you get so upset. Like, don't tell me. It's like, you're telling me like you're cheating on your wife. I'm like, don't even, I don't want, don't tell me. I don't want to hear it. I'm going to do bad things with that information. I like that you compare betting on the NFC South to adultery. It's worse. It's probably like some kind of second degree. Somebody's got to win the NFC South. I know. They hurt my feelings so much, the Bucs. They were better than every team last year.

29:05Cousin Sal:I know, but they had a ton of injuries. I know.

29:08Bill Simmons:The bundle made a good point about how bad their defense was. They were basically 28th EPA the last six, seven games. I can't defend that. I think my zag on that division is it's been so bad and so erratic and so stupid for so many years.

29:23Cousin Sal:It's got to come around.

29:23Bill Simmons:It's not scared everyone off from even looking at it logically. I just think if you look at it logically, they easily have the most talent. Like it's not even close. And they have like their draft, they're way better. Baker being healthy, I think really matters. I like some of their skill guys. I just, to me, they're a live dog in that game. And the team they're playing is similar to what you're saying, right?

29:45Cousin Sal:A lot of talent up and down the roster for Cincinnati, at least offensively. You know, I know Zach Taylor always wants to fast forward to week four because he'll go one and two most years.

29:54Bill Simmons:I got some funny Bengals fan emails.

29:57Cousin Sal:Yeah.

29:57Bill Simmons:that were upset that I was so down on their offensive line. What? The quarterback is eating through strong. It's not good, but it's not bad. You're wrong. Our offensive line, if you look at stat A, stat B, stat C, even Brandon Thorne, who is the guy I get most of my offensive line opinions from because he's the best at this. He studies it. Go check out his sub stack if you love offensive line stuff. He DM'd me and was like, they're not that bad. They were a couple years ago. He wasn't saying they were good, but he was like, they're not that bad. Isn't it sacks and pressure rate? How deep do I have to look into this?

30:37Cousin Sal:I don't know.

30:37Bill Simmons:They do have a couple above-average guys on the line. I don't know. Are they as bad as Washington? No. Are they as bad as...

30:49Cousin Sal:First four out of the five draft picks, defensively, they were awful too, right? They scored like 37 two games in a row and lost both games. So between the offensive line and defense, that's what I worry about a little because they loaded up on defense.

31:05Bill Simmons:I'm still trying to figure out the whole thing where we made the defense better because this will make it easier for Joe Burrow. Right. Okay, so your defense is going to get off the field more often. So that means Joe Burrow is on the field more often. How does that make it easier for him if you're still not blocking for them? They claim they're going to block for him. My memory of the Bengals the last couple years is Joe Burrow just running for his life over and over again and taking huge hits.

31:30Cousin Sal:Yeah. I would love to see the camera on Burrow as they drafted defense after defense after defense. He's saying, oh, this is going to help me. This is great.

31:39Bill Simmons:You know what would help? Some blockers. Anyway, we'll see that one. Bucks is looming as my favorite one. So with Ringer 107, we're going to do four picks. I'm doing four picks with House on Thursday night. You're going to do four picks on your show, Ringer Fantasy, Ringer NFL. We're all going to make four. And then we're saving the fifth spot for Sunday morning because we want to get more info. That was our biggest, the thing we're all frustrated with last year is locking these picks on Thursday and you and House and I would be texting each other on Sunday morning like, God damn, like, I really like this team.

32:11Bill Simmons:I wish I had them and whatever. So now that's the way we're doing it. Okay. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back. We're going to finish the guest lines and we're going to do the futures draft. Let's do it all. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. It's the small moments where we have the most fun sometimes, like having a friendly little competition with your friends. See who's the fastest or who can put better in the backyard or who can get to somebody else's house or the better route, whatever it is. Even better if you put some Michelob Ultra on the line or a refreshing way to up the stakes.

32:44Bill Simmons:Like me and House are going to pick games against each other on Thursday. It's the NFL season. Maybe we keep track in ways of a Michelob Ultra six packs. I'm happy to do that. Maybe Michelob Ultra will make a special BS podcast or ringer six packs. And then we could, we could barter them back and forth, whatever it is. By the way, they should do that for us. Superior is worth playing for Michelob Ultra, superior light beer, enter for a chance to win superior soccer, basketball, and golf prizes at Michelob Ultra.com slash superior access. enjoy responsibly copyright 2026 Anheuser-Busch Michelob Ultra Light Beer St.

33:23Bill Simmons:Louis Missouri so I was telling you during the break about my contact one situation I have terrible eyesight as you know like really really awful eyesight and my contacts have to be I have to order them in advance it takes them like 4 or 5 weeks for them to make my contacts I can't just be like oh I'll get them online like they actually have to like you know I'm like minus 10 every six months I'm supposed to change them I thought I'd change them in March but it was actually January so I realized this four weeks ago I'm on month nine with these contacts and the new contacts are coming this week and I'm now at the point where it's like I can't really read that well anymore I'm like sliced alone, sit next to Adrian's bed trying to read it as she's in the coma it's just like blotchy so anyway That's why I'm squinting and looking because I have four more days.

34:18Bill Simmons:My contacts are literally about to die in my eyes. Oh, my God. So there you go. Yeah.

34:23Cousin Sal:It takes a – there's no temporary fix? Okay. Oh, I guess you have the ones in now, right?

34:29Bill Simmons:You have nothing in right now? I really need to figure out my eye thing. How have they not figured out eyesight better at this point? I don't know. Remember when they were doing the surgery and it was making – Is it Lasix?

34:42Cousin Sal:Yeah.

34:43Bill Simmons:Yeah, the Lasix. but I'm not eligible for that because my eyes are so bad. But how have they just not figured out any of this? Anyway, that's the good for my...

34:50Cousin Sal:Have you tried pouring hot water and lemon in your eyes?

34:53Bill Simmons:Maybe that's what it is. I'll work on it. All right, guess what? It's Fairly Rewatchables. Detroit is home for the New Orleans Saints. He keeps saying Rewatchables, like they're going to make this a movie. I can't see. I can't see if it's Rewatchables or Watchables. Fairly Watchables, Lions Saints.

35:11Bill Simmons:It's a buddy cop movie. with Goff and James and Williams. I'm probably too low. I did Lions minus six and a half.

35:21Cousin Sal:No, you're right on. I went seven. I went the full seven and it's six and a half. You got it. Oh, my first one.

35:30Bill Simmons:This is just, it's a flashing neon sign saying, please tease me. Please, please make us fart of your first tease in the ringer 107. Lions right down to 0.5 points. I really wanted to like the Saints in the offseason I know we talked about on the pod and I just I don't really like the stuff they did in the offseason I thought on the wise guys pod I think it was Raheem talking about how Shucks 26 he's like oh young QB finish the year strong it's like well he's going to be 27 next year so maybe he kind of is who he is but I don't know this feels blowout-y to me

36:08Cousin Sal:I have written down that this could I know you like Tampa a lot, and forget my opinion on the NFC South, but this could be a Shakey's game preview. This could be one of our first Shakey's game previews. It's a great call. If they somehow win that doggly bad division.

36:23Bill Simmons:All right, next fairly watchable, Bears at Carolina. I have this pegged as another home dog. I had Bears minus two and a half. You got it exactly. Why isn't this four? Because I don't think people trust the Bears. I trust the Bears. I have overs for them. They're going to come up in my future draft later if I can see what I wrote. Because I'm just getting blotches, squiggly lights. I'm out of focus. You can't read.

36:54Cousin Sal:All right. I don't know, man.

36:56Bill Simmons:I should have done the rock. I should have worn my leather jacket and my little cap and just tried to read it to Adrian.

37:03Cousin Sal:You can't see, Bill. I can't see at all. The contact's still on here. You're going to kill you. You can't see.

37:12Bill Simmons:This happened to me 10 years ago for different reasons. When my eyesight changed when I turned 45. Remember Daniel told us that was going to happen?

37:20Cousin Sal:Right, right, right.

37:20Bill Simmons:And my eyesight changed. I thought I had a brain tumor and it was just my eyes actually were getting better.

37:25Cousin Sal:Yeah.

37:26Bill Simmons:So I went from like a minus 10 and a half to a minus 10, but was wearing the stronger contacts. And I was like...

37:30Cousin Sal:Why does it take five weeks?

37:31Bill Simmons:Is your supplier in Australia?

37:34Cousin Sal:I don't know.

37:35Bill Simmons:It takes five weeks for my contacts. in one day for the Rams to go to Australia and play a football game. No kidding. Lions look very tease-worthy. Bears, Panthers do not. No, I'm saying Bears, Panthers also looks tease-worthy if you like the Panthers and you want to pull them to plus eight and a half.

37:54Cousin Sal:This is one of those games where I have a big opinion on one and a lesser opinion on the other, and I'm just going to go with the, I'll tell you, I'm going to go with the Bears here. But I do wonder, here's another narrative. is this the you know is this one of the team can't stand to play in 103 degree heat game there's always one so glad you brought this up Lombardi would talk about this

38:13Bill Simmons:every year yeah Carolina Tampa Miami where's the other one Jacksonville

38:20Cousin Sal:yeah

38:20Bill Simmons:those four you just you have to look at the weather as it gets within three days and if any of those are going to be 80 like 82 83 or above you're going to have the road team's going to have problems and we see it and they die in the second half and it's just a thing that happens. Yeah, it's like,

38:37Cousin Sal:yeah, the thermometer says 83, but trust me, it's 177 degrees on the field.

38:41Bill Simmons:Right.

38:42Cousin Sal:Who's the former kid?

38:43Bill Simmons:They go to Jay Feely or that other guy they have and it's like, guys, it's so hot down here. I can't even see. Yeah, and then you're like, fuck, I bet on the road team. His nipples are out. Yeah. That feels, Bears-Panthers feels like a stay away to me. Next one is Jaguars-Browns. I put this as a fairly watchable only because of Deshaun on the road. This weird Jaguars team. This has all the makings of that Raiders-Pats game from last year where everybody puts the Jaguars in. This looks like a let's be careful to me game. I have Jaguars seven and a half over the Browns.

39:18Cousin Sal:Yeah, you got it. I said seven. I thought that was enough. It is seven and a half. Exactly. But I'm with you. I'm on fire. Well, yeah. This is bad now, right? What do you have? I have three in a row. Yeah, it's six to five. Okay. Yeah. All right. But yeah, I just, I think this is a must watch to Sean until, until we've had enough making fun. Couldn't agree more. I'll put it in the four box in the early slip.

39:45Bill Simmons:I didn't tell you this, but my daughter has a game on Sunday. Should you be saying this? On Sunday at 11 a.m. PT.

39:57Cousin Sal:Oh no. Yeah.

40:02Bill Simmons:Yeah. This is for some reason a thing that's happening. So I'm going to have her game on the big TV. I'm going to have the red zone on another TV and then probably bills Texans. And those would be my three. Wow. I can't not put her on the big TV. Like this is her last season.

40:20Cousin Sal:No, you have to watch, but can't they get, you can get them to move it. Can't you?

40:24Bill Simmons:Honestly, I I'm completely outraged by the Emerson coaches on this coach. Suv and Coach Collins. Just an all-time outrage to put this against the week one NFL. How many Sunday games are there? Honestly, it feels like a personal attack. Yeah, of course. I think it's the only Sunday afternoon game they have. And for some reason, week one, head-to-head against all this stuff. So, I will be by myself. I don't want to be near anyone. And I feel like everything's going to be tied together in some way. I don't know if there's a way to parlay her game with any of these games. I love it. Sorry, Zoli. Oh, that's Hank.

41:00Cousin Sal:I don't watch the Sean throw four interceptions. Did anyone take pictures of you?

41:04Bill Simmons:I didn't realize you scored in the second half. The Sean was going for his fifth interception. I had to switch it. Jaguars, Browns. Jaguars look like a stay away. All right. Packers at Vikings. Yep. I think this is going to be another home dog, Sal. The Vikings, I think, out of the 32 teams, I think have had the widest array of opinions in all the preseason pods. People are like adamant that they love the Vikings this year. And then other people are like, that team's going to suck. They don't have talent. I've only heard the former.

41:37Cousin Sal:That, you know, this is, oh, the defense. They know what they're doing.

41:40Bill Simmons:Nobody can name three good guys in their defense, but the defense is awesome.

41:44Cousin Sal:Such a step up. Yeah, you know, it's like.

41:47Bill Simmons:Flores, doesn't matter who he has.

41:49Cousin Sal:At some point, it matters a little bit who he has. Blitzing schemes are the best. Like, yeah, I don't really know how they won those last four games. And Kyler Murray is a step up, but he's also, we talked about last week, by every metric, he's not going to make Justin Jefferson a superstar again.

42:05Bill Simmons:Packers feeling a little nobody believes in us too. Everybody's kind of kicked them in the curb. Parsons isn't coming back until midway through the year, et cetera, et cetera. I have Packers minus two over the Vikings, probably too high. All right, I have to stare at this now because I don't really believe it.

42:22Cousin Sal:I had Packers by one and a half and it's Vikings by one and a half. Whoa. That's in the tic-tac. I guess because there's a lot of Kyler Murray buzz. I mean, he hasn't been a one point favorite since 2012.

42:36Bill Simmons:And honestly, a lot of, a lot of, I don't love the Packers buzz too with no Parsons. Yeah, right. Their defense without a, okay, we lost a home dog. Yep. This last one, I've already made the tease with this team. I put them with I put them in a money parlay with UCLA last night thanks again to Bob Chesney Eagles home for Washington I feel like this particular matchup has lost everybody significant amount of money over the last 10 years it's true what has gone right in an Eagles-Washington game from a betting standpoint for anyone you know including us I can't think of one thing

43:19Cousin Sal:So, yeah, no, I'm usually, you're right. This should be a stay away for sure. And it's like a 425 kickoff, so there's always a weird one in there.

43:26Bill Simmons:And Washington has a real aroma about them, and it's not a positive aroma. It's an odor. And the Eagles, you know, they're going to go 11-6 like they always do, and this just seems like a layup. Why isn't this line going to be higher than my guess, which is Eagles minus six at home?

43:45Cousin Sal:It's not even that high. It gets you. You get the nod here because it's five and a half. And I said four and a half. Oh. Yeah. I don't know, man.

43:55Bill Simmons:That's an absurd price for the Eagles. That's basically, it's basically everybody's been burned by this game so many times you're getting two free points. This line should be seven and a half. And you're, well, the very first trend you read off, right?

44:09Cousin Sal:The division opponents getting whatever, seven, seven and a half. So they don't make it that high. That's also a gigantic narrative. The commander's O-line sucks. It does, because it does suck. Singing their eulogy, yeah, against this loaded defense. I guess so. I think I'm just too into Jaden Daniels this year. I don't even know why.

44:30Bill Simmons:Would you make Steelers Falcons a fairly watchable or a poopfecta? Or a rewatchable? Your pick.

44:38Cousin Sal:I think it's a rewatchable. it's I guess fairly watchable because you have to I hate him I'm not putting this on I'm watching Zoe over this one

44:51Bill Simmons:well I'll move it up because otherwise we would have had four poopfectas could do that Steelers Falcons I do think this is a fairly watchable because I'm really interested to see how bad the Falcons are I think that's a team that over the course of the month everybody has turned on and you could see with the lines. Even, you know, since we talked about it last week, I think the juice has moved even further ahead of them. On Fando, where they have the winning and losing record bets, the losing record bet, there's actually been action on them. They've moved up. I think they're like 12 to 1 now for that.

45:26Bill Simmons:They used to be like over 20 to 1. There's Mike McCarthy. There's some Steelers. Could be a little bit sleepery in the AFC as like a 10 or an 11 win team. I have Steelers minus three and a half.

45:41Cousin Sal:You're going to nail this one too. I said three. They made it three and a half. Four, five, six, seven, eight. Two, three, four, five. Eight to six for you. Yeah, I don't want to watch this. The Falcons, I read, two, 16 and one all time against the Steelers. And they have no one to rush the quarterback. So, Roger's going to look good.

46:00Bill Simmons:Here, can I give you some reasons to watch other than gambling? Sure. Who's playing quarterback for the Falcons?

46:07Cousin Sal:Yeah, I know. You hate that.

46:10Bill Simmons:I'm literally asking you who's playing do you know who's playing because I don't know who's playing

46:15Cousin Sal:they didn't announce it yeah right

46:16Bill Simmons:so it's either Panix who's had no training camp or Tua who should be out of the league and it's going to be one of those two with the Steelers a front seven that is always great it feels like the first two months and then loses steam as it goes but

46:30Cousin Sal:so why isn't this higher just because you're trying to think of their win totals the Steelers are eight and a half right Atlanta's down six and a half? What did we have?

46:39Bill Simmons:Atlanta's basically six and a half now. Steelers at home. Atlanta outdoors. Dome team outdoors. Right. I had it already. Salah's revenge. Titans home for the Jets. I can't say the Titans had a lot of buzz coming out of the preseason. Can't say there's a lot of excitement about this team. Jets, a whiff of buzz. A little bit of buzz. I have the Titans as home underdogs in this game. I have Jets minus one and a half.

47:16Cousin Sal:This is your worst one, I think. And the one we differ on the most. I said Titans by two, and it's Titans by two and a half. So I get this one.

47:25Bill Simmons:Ooh. Okay. Well, we'll see. Usually when I'm off by that many points, that means I'm going to bet. I'm going to bet on myself on this one I don't think the tights should be favored against anybody

47:42Cousin Sal:whoever wins let's just not do the could they make the playoffs let's just not do it here's what scares me House said he looked back over the summer he has 8 week 1 wagers on the Jets so maybe they should win this bet before September Jesus let's slip them an 800 number

48:01Bill Simmons:that game is more fun than Raiders Dolphins which is in Vegas Kirk Cousins Malik Willis two teams that have been thrown around the the number one pick race I have Vegas minus two and a half over the Dolphins

48:17Cousin Sal:I have Vegas minus two and a half as well and it's three and a half by the way we just put a poll on a poll up about the about the Jets Titans so because we're we had such a disparity all right Malik Willis, Kirk Cousins

48:32Bill Simmons:we'll see what the Netflix people think

48:35Cousin Sal:let me ask you this I don't want to really want to watch any of that game I was just going to ask you does the US Open men's finals get a bigger screen than Miami Las Vegas and the Simmons household

48:47Bill Simmons:no I don't care about the US Open finals I did stay up till over 2 o 'clock when I was in Boston watching Zverev almost blow it in round 1 which would have been the first time that's happened as a one seed losing in a major it was like in 30 years the announcers are going nuts and i got sucked in and then i was up till three in the morning after that's great oz i gave tennis a compliment saying the night edition of

49:13Cousin Sal:tennis an exciting night game the disparity between an exciting day game is unlike any in any other sport i have a hot take and i think eduardo needs to get ready to clip this out

49:26Bill Simmons:because i feel really strongly about it i've watched tennis my whole life i play tennis i I love tennis. Serena's done. Tennis matches are too long. Ooh. We've lost the narrative with this. These guys are too good. The rallies and the points and these matches are four and a half hours routinely now. Yeah. And I just think it's absurd. And I've talked about this forever. I don't think anything should be four and a half hours. Like literally anything. Movies, sporting events, a dinner, anything. I don't want to do anything. I don't want to do anything for four and a half hours that's supposed to be entertainment.

50:04Bill Simmons:And I just think they really have to rethink this. And all the tennis peers are going to be like, that's crazy. Fuck you. Go fuck yourself. I get it. Whoa. But I think they should seriously think about changing the sets from six to five for winning the set.

50:19Cousin Sal:Oh, six to changing the set. See, I was going to propose. See, I bet tennis all the time because it's on there today. Do the four out of seven? Well, they do two out of three sets for men. when it's not a major. If you're watching the Cincinnati Open on a Wednesday, it's like, that's two out of three. Women are always two out of three. You would just go to five instead of six?

50:41Bill Simmons:Whatever we have to do to not make this four and a half hours. I just don't think it's that entertaining. And I like tennis. And I'm sure people are like, no, no, this is amazing. You were up to three in the morning watching one.

50:50Cousin Sal:I know.

50:51Bill Simmons:And the whole time I'm like, why the fuck is this four and a half hours? It's absurd. in baseball it's when the baseball games got too long what did we do we were like this is too long let's get a pitch clock we got to fix this in tennis it's like oh jokovic is about to have a stroke on the on the court this is great what drama he's dying like what's fun about this it's a lot when it's couldn't even like hit balls back in the fifth set yeah he was just like letting that letting serves go because he was trying to save his energy for when he served But it's like, once we get to that point, I just think it's much harder to play than it was during the McEnroe-Borg era.

51:31Bill Simmons:It just was. It just is.

51:33Cousin Sal:They are flying around for every point. I'll give you that. And that's why maybe the night game is better. That's why. You won't have to worry about everyone dropping dead from heat stroke. But you'd have to check the ratings. I feel like a lot of people start tuning in in that fifth set.

51:47Bill Simmons:They'd also tune in if it was five games instead of six. All right. I don't know. I don't care as much. I'm sorry. I forgot I shouldn't have done this to you when you were in football mode what do you mean you don't care you bet on all this

52:01Cousin Sal:tennis I know I brought it up but I just I never really thought about it

52:05Bill Simmons:Chargers Cardinals in LA a rare LA football game where they're not going to be deluged by fans from the other team because we don't know them in Arizona Cardinal fans

52:16Cousin Sal:a lot of Buda Baker jerseys roaming outside of SoFi this is also

52:21Bill Simmons:a classic teaser I have Chargers minus eight.

52:25Cousin Sal:Let me find this. I had eight and a half. It's nine and a half. Went way high on this.

52:33Bill Simmons:Yeah, because they don't want us to tease because they knew we convinced fandom. All right, those are three poopfectas. Sunday night, Cowboys, Giants at New York. You're going to be favored. You're going to be favored. You're going to be favored in this game. I have Cowboys minus two and a half.

52:50Cousin Sal:I had Cowboys minus three and I was bummed to see that it was two and a half not because you got it because now I have to think about I mean this is potentially awesome for you you get an immediate crack at celebrating my grief minutes after Brandon Aubrey misses a game winning 72 yard field goal at the buzzer so I was bummed to see this I think you lay this smack down oh really?

53:14Bill Simmons:I do I love the Cowboys this year I know. Everybody does. I was looking at them for best record in the NFS, like the one seed, all that shit.

53:23Cousin Sal:Yeah. We just have to lose to the Giants. Everybody gets off our case for a minute. And somehow we've won nine of the Giants. I'm already a basket case about this matchup.

53:32Bill Simmons:What did the Bundos say? 17 of the 26 guys from last year's defense are no longer on the team?

53:39Cousin Sal:For Dallas? Yeah. Yeah, that should be all of them. Yeah, you guys are going to be good this year. Yep. There you go. And there's a poll up now on Netflix. Will Sal be shedding tears next Sunday night? I mean, either way, I think it's yes.

53:51Bill Simmons:I think it was very smart to stay away from medieval Knievel.

53:55Cousin Sal:I don't want any part of that. Yeah. Talk to me next Monday.

54:00Bill Simmons:So we have Giants as a home dog, Panthers. Wait, did you win? Do I have a chance?

54:07Cousin Sal:10?

54:08Bill Simmons:I think I won. You're winning 10-9. We have four home dogs. I think we're both going to hit this one. This is the most obvious tic-tac one of all time. Monday night, Kansas City at home for Denver, and I have Chiefs minus one and a half.

54:24Cousin Sal:I swear on my kids, I had Chiefs minus two, and it is two and a half. See how that works, people? See how unsatisfying that it was? We split? I feel like you cheated. We tie week one. I feel like you cheated. Six, seven, eight, nine, ten to one, two, three. Eight, nine, ten to ten, including ties. There you go.

54:43Bill Simmons:Chiefs minus two and a half, huh? What are we missing with the Chiefs here? It's Mahomes nine months after an ACL. It's Kelsey three months after he got married. It's a complete overhaul of they had all these young people. They have a young secondary. It's a team that I feel like is going to take five, six weeks to be whatever it's going to be. Week one against Sean Payton and the Broncos, a team that felt like they should have made the Super Bowl last year. That feels like they're better, even though the schedule is not better. I just don't see how the Chiefs are favored like this. This feels like a Mahomes-Reed thing.

55:20Cousin Sal:I think Vandals throwing their hands in the air a little bit here. Like, the Chiefs would normally be a three-point favorite, right? But what people aren't talking about is this is Bo Nix's rehab game too, right? We didn't see him. He got hurt in the middle of January. That's fair. Messed up his leg. So it's like, all right, let's see. I mean, they pushed it as late as they could Monday night for Mahomes to rest up. Surprised they didn't play this Tuesday afternoon. in Australia. All right, so we tied. No, I will not be crying according to our Netflix faithful. 67%. Thanks, guys. Appreciate that.

55:55Cousin Sal:Is that what they said? That's what they say. They're never wrong.

55:58Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Whether you're racing to build the biggest sandcastle, seeing who can throw the fastest pitch, or competing in a championship match, it's always better when there's a prize on the line. Like Michelob Ultra. Smooth, refreshing, and so satisfying after all that hard work. Superior is worth playing for. Michelob Ultra, Superior Light Beer. Enter for a chance to win Superior Soccer, Basketball, Golf Prizes at MichelobUltra.com slash Superior Access. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026, Anheuser-Busch. Michelob Ultra Light Beer, St. Louis, Missouri. This episode is brought to you by 7-Up.

56:36Bill Simmons:Okay, this one's a case for conspiracy bill. Let's bring them in. Ever notice lemon is everywhere from lemon recipes to lemon-scented cleaning supplies? And when it comes to lemon-lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the Eliminate has been padding the stats, keeping Big Lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something. The sip is about to be flipped. 7-Up is fighting back, swapping lemon-lime for their new lime-lemon soda. Now, lime comes first. 7-Up, flip the sip. All right, quick break. This episode is brought to you by Fire TV. You ever sit down ready to watch the game only to search and scroll endlessly?

57:15Bill Simmons:If so, you need Fire TV. It shows your live games from your favorite teams all in one place right on the home screen. No more searching. Just sit down and turn on Fire TV. Separate subscriptions may be required. Feature and content availability may vary. Futures draft. It's time. Let's go. Come on. I'll give you the first pick since I beat you last year in Guess the Lions, so that enables you to get the first pick. You also beat me in this.

57:46Cousin Sal:I look back. We gave out 34 futures bets each. Today, we're going to try for 100 each, but no. But I was like, oh, we did well. We both gave out winners and then super fan Chris Haynes reported Simmons ended up up 3.98 units and Sal was down 11.94 units. So mind your damn business.

58:07Bill Simmons:Oh, you were down last year? Yeah, I guess I was down. Oh, I blame the Chiefs. So part of the art of this is we want to have some winners that are going to be around even, plus 110, plus 115. But we want to have some long shots too. And we want to be able to go back and forth and have a nice mix of both, but really try to hit. Like one of the ones I hit last year was Mike Vrabel, coach of the year. And that was like, I don't know, 10 to 1 or 12 to 1. We're putting one unit on all of these. So you hit one of those and it's worth like 10. So the art of this is some long shots, some staples, and go all the way around.

58:46Bill Simmons:You have the first pick.

58:47Cousin Sal:We say one unit. We recommend one unit is$10 ,000, but it's whatever you guys want to do. $10 ,000 per unit is how we're going to do this.

58:56Bill Simmons:Are we going to do it snake?

58:56Cousin Sal:I go first and you take two? Or we just go back and forth? I'm fine just going back and forth. It's up to you though. All right. I'm going to start with my favorite. and I can't believe it involves the Jets doing something somewhat positive, but it does. The New York Jets to come in third place at even odds. I think this hits by three or four games on either side. I think the Pats and Bills are 10 plus. I think the Dolphins are four minus. They have not built their team like the Jets have. The Jets are actually trying to win, believe it or not. I have the Jets at six wins. I think this is a lock of all locks, especially if Miami's battling for that first pick in December, late December, give me Jets third place plus 100.

59:40Cousin Sal:I had it written down. It's great.

59:43Bill Simmons:It's a good one. It's great. Ironically, my first pick was going to be a variation of that. The Falcons, and by the way, you can find all of these on FanDuel, including the exact order bets for divisions, but also you can bet on the Jets to be third place. I have a parlay, the Falcons and the Dolphins, to both be in fourth place, plus 343 on FanDuel, at least yesterday when I did all my work. And by the way, if you want to throw Minnesota in there, which I'm not going to do, plus 1056. for that. But Falcons-Dolphins is my first pick. Plus... I like that.

1:00:27Cousin Sal:Plus 343. Because it's like a two-a-terror. Two-a-killed or was about to kill both the teams.

1:00:34Bill Simmons:You're right. It's like a two-a-two timer. Yeah, that's it. I honestly can't figure out how either of these teams don't finish fourth. I think your roadmap for the AFC East is a lot easier because we're going to have the Jets at least trying for the first few weeks. Dolphins don't seem to care at all. Falcons, I think the Saints or the Panthers would just have to really stink. But I just don't see how the Falcons aren't in fourth place. So anyway, that's my first one.

1:01:00Cousin Sal:What do you got? How about this? Chargers get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, plus 172. Wow. In the last three years, they've made the playoffs. I think they're going to enter as a three seed. They're going to screw people up a little bit. They'll enter as a three seed after winning the division, and they're going to lose at home. I have them losing to the six seeded Chiefs in round one. chalk that up as a winner. One way or another, they're losing in the first round.

1:01:23Bill Simmons:So this is just a Herbert shorting by you.

1:01:26Cousin Sal:Yeah, right.

1:01:27Bill Simmons:It's pretty good.

1:01:28Cousin Sal:It's like how we would bet Mahomes every year and then, okay, every three years they'll win the Super Bowl. This is the other version of that. Yeah.

1:01:35Bill Simmons:So ways you lose, they don't make the playoffs or they're the one seed. Right. All other scenarios, you're in play. I really like that. Okay. Oh, man. So many good ones left. Are you done? You could tap out if you want. No, I have so many. I really love this one. I'm not going to do Atlanta twice. I'll do one that I love that I've wagered on myself. I have Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs. It's plus 112 on FanDuel. Basically, even odds. And I don't see a world where either of these teams don't make the playoffs unless something horrible happens. Now, I've learned my lesson from last year because we got burned.

1:02:24Bill Simmons:We'd had some three-team playoff stuff. And what I took away from that, my mistake and my lesson going forward, is three teams are just opening the door for weird shit to happen. Stick with the two you really like. One in each conference. They're going to each be doing their own thing. I just think Houston's defense and Seattle's defense, those are going to be two of the three best defenses in the league. I'd just be shocked if either of these teams didn't win 10 plus 112 sounds great sign me up

1:02:55Cousin Sal:I like that I have them both making the playoffs why not plus money yeah who beat us last year in general Kansas City Kansas City killed us last year and Detroit did you have Detroit too I think I had

1:03:05Bill Simmons:Kansas City killed us we lost multiple it honestly ruined what should have been an awesome year for me right but I had all these different Kansas City bets that murdered me yeah but alright

1:03:16Cousin Sal:alright you're up I have this is my only NFC South bet. God bless you. You're going to have a dozen. It's a Cousin Sal special on Fan Rule, Bill. You can check it out on the Ringer specials right there. It's a combination bet. NFC West to have more wins than the NFC South. Duh. And the AFC West to have more wins than the AFC North. Say that again. I forgot it already. No, NFC West to have more wins than the NFC South. So that's going to happen. Yes, they can do that by 10. AFC West to have more than the AFC North. So you could have three double-digit win teams, and if the Raiders are competitive against the AFC North, Cleveland's going to be good.

1:04:02Bill Simmons:Yeah, you need Cleveland not to be good. You're hoping Cincinnati's not like an 11-win team.

1:04:08Cousin Sal:And I don't think Pittsburgh's going to be very good, and that's plus 165 if you put those together.

1:04:12Bill Simmons:Wow. That's a really good one. the AFC part makes me a little more nervous I think the other one I thought was great but I like the juice the plus 165 you mentioned the NFC South you got me excited so I'm going to bang this out Tampa to win the NFC South plus 175 I honestly this is a miracle but this is still the price I don't understand it at all plus 175 they're by far the best team

1:04:42Cousin Sal:this is like you went to the doctor and they say hey you got to stop drinking getting. They're like, yeah, whatever, Doc. And you get to the parking lot, you're doing shots of Jägermeister in the car.

1:04:49Bill Simmons:Like, why with the NFC South? Enough. One of the things that's appealing is a different team seems to win this stupid division. Although Tampa won a few in a row, but usually when we have those screwed up divisions, a different team wins every year and it's like, oh, who's up this year? Tampa didn't win last year. Okay. Yeah. So what was that? Tampa?

1:05:10Cousin Sal:Plus 175. Sign me up. Just to win. Okay. All right. One more Sal special on Fandle. Courtesy of the Ringer. Rams win the West, the NFC West.

1:05:21Bill Simmons:Yep.

1:05:22Cousin Sal:Chargers make the playoffs, and Cardinals lose their first five. That's just a fun one. Wow. Plus 850. Yeah.

1:05:29Bill Simmons:LSC playoffs. Zona loses their... Zona goes 0-5. They have the most onerous schedule in the league. They're at the Giants week four.

1:05:38Cousin Sal:I feel like that's their best shot. Otherwise, they're a 7-10 point dog. Yeah. Here you go. Pays over 8-1.

1:05:44Bill Simmons:8-1? Oh, boy. You really did your homework this year, I can tell. That's a pretty good one. It always works out, yeah. All right, I'm going to take this off the board. It's a defensive one. I could probably get this later, but I want to do this. It's not a jinx. As you know, I like winning more than jinxing your teams. I have Dak Prescott to win the MVP. Oh. at 18-1. I just like the odds. I think that team, I think one of those two NFC East teams is going to be really good, especially because of those four Washington Giants games. I just like your team. We talked about it earlier. Jerry being quiet is notable.

1:06:30Bill Simmons:He's got weapons. They figured out the pickings thing. They're going to be able to run the ball. I just like the odds. I don't understand why his odds are 18-1, but Burrow is like 5-1. So you got to be... Yeah, that shouldn't be that wide. He should be right in there with the rest of the favorites. If Dallas is 12-5 or 13-4, Dak's going to win the MVP because the freaking media machine behind the Cowboys...

1:06:59Cousin Sal:Right. Anyway, I like the odds. Don't clip that off, Cajal. Don't even bother with that. It's nice and everything. I appreciate it.

1:07:07Bill Simmons:By the way, we forgot to welcome Tony Romo to the podcast.

1:07:10Cousin Sal:he's going to be he's over my shoulder here he's going to be there all season yeah Tony's got some time now he's going to hang with us and yeah he's going to always invited on the pod to join us thank you yeah please Tony the real Tony alright that's good I mean I like Dak for like most passing yards and passing touchdowns and when he I just wanted a Dak prop

1:07:29Bill Simmons:before you grabbed one because I knew I figured you were going to grab one that's fine

1:07:32Cousin Sal:you know he's not in the NFC South right are you still okay making a future bet with him

1:07:36Bill Simmons:I'm okay

1:07:37Cousin Sal:alright this is stupid you're going to hate this but Zach Taylor, coach of the year at plus 2 ,700. Now, I think he's either first coach fired or coach of the year. Nothing in the middle. And our friends at Fandle are too nice to let us bet first coach fired. So 11, 12, maybe 13 win bangles could get Zach Taylor some hardware. Imagine that. 27 to 1.

1:08:05Bill Simmons:Who do you think is going to be the first coach fired if it's not Zach Taylor? Oh.

1:08:10Cousin Sal:Oh, no. It's going to be Zach Towner. I feel like we talked about this.

1:08:13Bill Simmons:But he's going to have some run. Because Bowles would be up there if Tampa starts out slow. Yeah. But it's less than you think. Right? There's less candidates this year because we had 10 new coaches. You have some entrenched ones. Andy Reid's kind of a fun guest for this. Interesting. They just stink, and they're like two and five. And people are like, he's done. Sirianni is a wild card if the Eagles are super disappointing. But it's way less than anything. KFC is a wild card. Potentially. It's all people you would never expect. Aaron Glenn if it's just as awful as it was last year.

1:08:55Cousin Sal:Yeah, that team has to get an interception. Alright. Okay, that was mine. You go.

1:09:01Bill Simmons:Alright, I'm going to take this off the board just because I don't want you to have it. price on the Seahawks. Rookie, Notre Dame. 750.5 yards rushing. This is over under on FanDuel. He was being drafted like a$25 to$30 running back. If he doesn't get 750 yards, somebody got hurt. Like with the way that that team runs the ball, the zone blocking, which I'm sure they kept. It's a 17-game season. 750 yards. That's 45 yards a game. Right. So he'd basically have to get hurt not to hit that. I think they're going to need him. I don't know if Charbonnet's coming back. The other guys are all third string, fourth string running backs.

1:09:49Bill Simmons:I think they're going to use this guy and ride him, and I'm grabbing it. 750. This reminds me of the Ibuka last year, which was one of mine that hit. I know. And it hit in like nine weeks. But it was like, who else are they throwing it to other than him and Mike Evans? Like we just watched it. So anyway, price 750.5.

1:10:10Cousin Sal:That is a low total. So what is that? 40? If you play 17 games, that's like 47 yards a game. That's crazy. Yeah. I don't really understand. I'm right. Price is right for price. I'm going to write that down. Over 750 and a half. All right. I'll stay rookie here since we're doing rookie. Yeah. I picked this award, the Offensive Rookie of the Year, correctly, two of the last three. Yeah. I'm going to say two and a half, really, because that Bucco, who you brought up, was in the driver's seat for like nine weeks before he just disappeared. He got hurt. Baker got hurt. Yeah, he killed a lot of fantasy teams too.

1:10:41Cousin Sal:Dijon Stribling for the 49ers plus 850. Got Kirk out. Ricky Pearsall on IR. Who knows what the IUK if they sign him, if he plays, whatever. Kittle starts banged up. I think there's plenty of opportunity to catch passes from Purdy, who was like top, I think, eight in yards per game. This guy had back-to-back 800 yards with Ole Miss.

1:11:04Bill Simmons:Unless we might have the Mike Evans injury at some point. Yeah.

1:11:07Cousin Sal:Right. So you got Evans there. So he had four catches in the preseason all over 10 yards. I think he's going to be... I'm going to go O 'Roy at plus 850. And I think you could get him for most receiving yards to a plus 470. But 850 for these purposes is my pick.

1:11:23Bill Simmons:And that was 20-1 at one point. It was pretty high. I think that dropped. Yeah. I know.

1:11:28Cousin Sal:I'm not getting the best number.

1:11:29Bill Simmons:So T-Mac won last year. Yep. he came on late like a freight train. Normally I'm always afraid of rookie receivers, but the two almost won last year. Okay. I have another one. This is... This is the goofiest one. And I can't decide... Ah, fuck. I'm just going to do it. Okay. This is a parlay with three receivers. This is one of the only ones... Yeah. Matthew Golden on the Packers to get 600-plus receiving yards. Jalen Coker on the Panthers to get 600-plus receiving yards. And Rahid Shahid, Rashid Shahid, 500-plus yards receiving. You put those three together, it's plus 561. Wow. And the only way I lose that is if one of those guys gets hurt for half the season.

1:12:29Bill Simmons:Shahid is the number two receiver on the Seahawks, basically. And if you remember, they traded him midseason, and they were trying to figure out how to use him, but he's their deep threat. I feel like he's 500 seems low. You could talk me in a 750 for him. Coker, who Holy Cross's his own, awesome playoff game last year against the Rams. I think he was like 12 for 140. He was hurt for most of the year. He was going to be the number two receiver. Basically, he was out of the loop for three months, came back. and then Golden, the Packers went from five receivers to three. So if you think Jordan Love's going to throw for 3 ,500, 4 ,000 yards, he's got Kraft and three receivers.

1:13:09Bill Simmons:All of those receivers should be over 600. So plus 561 for me for that. It does make sense.

1:13:15Cousin Sal:But it's too many overs. This is how he loses money, just bad overs. That's why I said this is my only one of these. All right. Let me show you how it's done.

1:13:25Bill Simmons:Okay.

1:13:25Cousin Sal:Puka under 107.5 receptions.

1:13:30Bill Simmons:I love it.

1:13:31Cousin Sal:Now, I know he had 129 last year, and so this would be a big drop-off, but not that big if you have to sit two or three games for unforeseen reasons or for foreseen reasons. So he's got some groin stuff going into the season. That's the groin stuff we know about. That's the least of his problems. Yeah, exactly. So 104, 105 catches would still be incredible. 108 over, let's say, 14 games is like eight catches a game. I don't think... Also, the starters might not even play the fourth quarter in some of these Ram blowouts. I really like the other... I don't root for injuries, but... Also, does he come back from Australia?

1:14:07Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's the other thing. They're going in. They're leaving the next day.

1:14:13Bill Simmons:It's like 50-50. He's on the plane. Arrested for fornicating with a kangaroo, which apparently is illegal. I love this one. That's a great one. Especially if the kangaroo thing happens. Yeah. No, you're catching somebody the year after the best year of their life. Right. Somebody who took a lot of big hits, who already might have some injury stuff going and definitely has some other stuff going. So I really like that one. Okay. Can't believe this is still on the board. I looked at this as under 7.5 plus 210, but I'm going to go one higher because I just want to win this. Washington and Atlanta.

1:14:55Bill Simmons:both under eight and a half wins eight and nine or worse both teams plus 112 it's good I just don't see either team

1:15:06Cousin Sal:you gotta put the south in everything man just open up a waffle house in your backyard already what are you doing who's going nine and eight out of that combo neither I had to do that plus 112 plus 112 I love it what do you got

1:15:26Bill Simmons:by the way I should mention with Washington Atlanta the two NFC team we talked about this last week but these are the two NFC teams I'm just shorting every way I can I just think both of them are going to be bad and I still feel like the market has not adjusted I don't really have an AFC team like this that I feel like everybody's off on I think you could make the cases like Indianapolis, I was excited. And I think you went under for us. That was one of your favorite bodies.

1:15:55Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:15:56Bill Simmons:Yeah. But I don't feel like it's a, like, I feel like these are sure things. Wow. That these teams cannot go nine and eight. Yeah, I know. I just don't see a world where either team is nine. Washington can't block. Atlanta doesn't have a quarterback. And Atlanta has probably the worst front seven in either conference. So I just, that signed me up for that one.

1:16:16Cousin Sal:Why don't you bet them to go 0-5? I'm sure there's odds on that. I don't know where they are, but... I might have the worst record in my arsenal. I mean, you could just parlay them losing over and over. All right, this is a bet that you're not going to like this, but you could do this with any team you like in this division, I think. Green Bay to be the two seed at plus 1 ,000. I have them to win the division. I have them to win the division at plus 280, but I think it's a better bet, and you just do this with the NFC North winner, who should have not as many wins as the NFC West winner, but I think more than the Cowboys-Eagles.

1:16:50Cousin Sal:I know you're high on the Cowboys and certainly more than the South winner, right? So you got the West team, the West winner is the one seed and then I think the NFC North is the two.

1:17:02Bill Simmons:So basically, instead of betting Packers to win the division, you're betting them to be the two seed because you're gaming that to be the second best division in the conference.

1:17:13Cousin Sal:They'll have more wins than your, they basically just have to have more wins than the Eagles or Cowboys or your Tampa Bay Bucs, whoever you have in the South. 10-1 odds, pretty good. Yeah, but who do you have? You have the Bears to win that division, right? I have the Lions. You have the Lions. All right, so you'll get the... I don't like it, though.

1:17:28Bill Simmons:To me, you're afraid of the NFC South. I'm afraid of the NFC North. Yeah. Okay.

1:17:42Bill Simmons:I can't believe I'm doing this one. You're going to be so mad. It's another NFC South bet. What's the matter with you? What happened? Baker Mayfield, 4 ,000-plus passing yards, plus 340. So I looked at this. I studied it. Two years ago, he threw for 4 ,500 yards. Last year, he was on pace to do it before seven parts of his body got injured and everybody else got injured. I think their offense is going to be good 40 4 ,017 a game that's 200 and what 230 yards a game every bone is

1:18:28Cousin Sal:body broken last year but if he goes 17 games

1:18:31Bill Simmons:offensive line didn't have worse last year he has his left tackle back I think they have a top four offensive line I think they're going to protect him I think he plays 17 games and I think he gets this easily. I looked at the 4 ,500 too. It was 19-1. Thought about it long and hard, but that was aggressive. But he did do it two years ago.

1:18:49Cousin Sal:Did you mention the contract year? Contract year as well.

1:18:53Bill Simmons:Little FU. Little FU as well.

1:18:56Cousin Sal:The only thing is their defense has... If their defense is better, that hurts his numbers a little bit. Alright, as long as we're talking 4 ,000 plus, how about Trevor Lawrence? Plus 160. Not as good a number, but probably because he had 4 ,007 last year. And the team led the league in drops. 45 drops. I love this. So if you cut that number to 30, which is still really bad, he should go way over this number. You could escalate it to 4 ,100. You should be okay there too. But I'm going to go T-Law 4K plus 160.

1:19:30Bill Simmons:I love it. And I'm going to follow it up with another 4K bet. Okay. Caleb Williams plus 210. That's a good one. all the same reasons you said I actually think they're positioned to throw the ball a little bit more this year than they did last year year two of Ben Johnson I feel like Caleb's going to be better this year their schedule's you know fairly hard which I like you almost want like the games that are going to come down the fourth quarter where you know the guys out there I think that's what heard Drake May last year was some of the passing stuff because sometimes the games we're done. But is Caleb just never going to throw for 4 ,000 yards?

1:20:14Bill Simmons:He's going to do it at some point.

1:20:16Cousin Sal:Just to keep the joke going? Yeah.

1:20:17Bill Simmons:You want to keep going? Do you have another 4 ,000 yarder? Of course. Oh, go.

1:20:20Cousin Sal:Oh, I don't know if I have a 4 ,000 yarder. Okay. But similarly, Christian Watson, 10-plus receiving touchdowns is plus 340. Wow. So he's never part of that wide receiver slog. He's no longer part with the, you know, love could focus on him and Reed and Kraft and golden, like you said, he typically gets between six and seven touchdowns, but I think he ups it to double digits, gets behind the defense a lot. So do that 10 times, plus 340.

1:20:48Bill Simmons:Sadly, after having been burned by him multiple times in fantasy, I don't know if I can support any Christian Watson bets. It's fine. I can't support this bet, though. David Montgomery, now in the Houston Texans, thousand-yard rushing season. Just needs a thousand. 1 ,001 would get it. Just 1 ,000. Give me to four digits. Plus 220. Good defense. He's not sharing it with Gibbs or anything like that. Actually, he's going to be a workhorse. I just feel like a lot of 20 for 72, 19 for 75, 22 for 68. 1 ,000 yards, 17 games. That's less than 60 a game. and he's way, way, way better than anyone they had last year and it was the biggest hole they had last year.

1:21:40Bill Simmons:I like that.

1:21:41Cousin Sal:Plus 220 for that. Let's take some heat off of Woody Marks. Yeah, I always try to go by his yards per carry, but it's not really fair because he's a goal line vulture. So he's getting a lot of one and two and three yards.

1:21:52Bill Simmons:He has to move the chains there. Right. And that's a key point. Like they had him out there inside the four chewing up his... Now he's going to actually go.

1:22:00Cousin Sal:All right, you're up. All right. Here's a weird one. Vance Joseph, Assistant coach of the year. They have this on FanDuel. 11-1. Oh, wow. One in previous years by Josh McDaniels, Ben Johnson, Jim Schwartz. The Denver defense right up there with Houston. Wow, I didn't even look at this one. Yeah. The 68-63 sacks the last two years. They had four guys with at least seven sacks, Denver. He came in second last year, Vance Joseph, to Josh McDaniels. He had like 80 votes. McDaniels had 130 or something. And so I think he wins it this year. Plus 1 ,100.

1:22:34Bill Simmons:Was Mike McDaniel the favorite for this? He must have been.

1:22:38Cousin Sal:Yes, I believe he was. Yep. Now I can't find it.

1:22:41Bill Simmons:Who's your Dallas defensive coordinator? Christian Parker. 34 years old. Could be another one. Good one. If you guys go from like one of the five worst defenses in the league to like 14th.

1:22:54Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's true.

1:22:56Bill Simmons:I'm rooting for Vance Joseph, though. All right. Going big upside for this one. I can't believe he didn't take it. It had Sal written all over it. Malik, what you talking about, Willis? Thousand yards rushing this year, plus 850.

1:23:14Cousin Sal:I have something like that. Damn it.

1:23:17Bill Simmons:That is the most Sal bet possible. Plus 850. He's going to run the ball 10 times a game. Maybe 12. He'll break two of them. He might have a game where he's like 22 for 70. I don't know. But plus 850, I couldn't resist.

1:23:35Cousin Sal:All right. This is the one I couldn't resist, Malik Willis. God forbid we don't have a Malik Willis future here. So it's a special section. Most quarterback rushing yards is plus 500. Oh, that's even better than mine. No, I don't know if it is, but he's going to have 2 ,000 yards rushing. Unfortunately, only like 600 or so are going to be beyond the line of scrimmage. I forgot about that with the sacks.

1:23:59Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:23:59Cousin Sal:Yeah, yeah. But no, they don't count against you. But you don't get things for sacks. So I think plus 500 could work out for him. We haven't seen a lot of them in preseason, whatever.

1:24:11Bill Simmons:It's not like he's playing games. But I do wonder if they're going to be a really funky team to play. Where it's just like a lot of running and weird shit and almost like watching some of the stuff UCLA was doing last night.

1:24:23Cousin Sal:He'll kill a teaser with a four-quarter, seven-yard touchdown run against us somewhere. Mark it down.

1:24:32Bill Simmons:I'm marking it down. I'm also going to mark down this one. Seattle and New England together, over eight and a half wins. You like that piece? Because there's a third piece coming.

1:24:46Bill Simmons:Rams, under 13 and a half. You put those together, plus 145. So Rams go 13 and four or worse. I'm basically going to win because Seattle and New England are both winning nine games. Plus 145. Interesting. I really liked that one. I was trying to figure out different ways to bet against the Rams. And that I just feel like them going 14 and three seems absurd with a top heavy roster, with the schedule they have the Aaron Donald plant, probably playing 30 plays a game for the first three months of the year. Some of the schedule shit. this Australia game? Like if they lose that Australia game, are they going 14 and three?

1:25:31Bill Simmons:So I wanted to figure out something with that.

1:25:33Cousin Sal:All right. I feel like an idiot because I did all this research and I, you know, I fell out with the Rams. I mean, we'll give our Super Bowl pick at the end. Is that what we're going to do? Sure. The last one? Yeah. So, but I like the first two. It's hard to believe a year ago, Patriots and Seattle were favored to not make the playoffs like going into this. Just outrageous. I'm going to do it to you what you did to me here with Drake maybe. What do I want to do here?

1:26:03Bill Simmons:You're going to probably show me.

1:26:04Cousin Sal:Do I want to do 35-plus touchdowns or do I want to do A.J. Brown 10-plus? All right, I'm going to do A.J. Brown 10-plus receiving touchdowns.

1:26:13Bill Simmons:I knew I should have taken it.

1:26:14Cousin Sal:I think that's a really good call for you. I had it written down. You got to read it. It's not enough to read it right now. Plus 240. There's a world, I hate to say this, and there's an emotional hedge where it maybe throws for 41 touchdowns, 39 touchdowns, and A.J. Browns can get at least 10 of those at plus 240.

1:26:35Bill Simmons:It's a great bet. I also looked at the 12 touchdowns for this, which I think was, what was that, like plus 300, something? More, yeah. A little higher, yeah. So you got it plus 125? Plus 240, 10 plus. Plus 240? Yeah, get in on that. I wrote down plus 125 for that. I feel like you're cheating.

1:26:55Cousin Sal:For 10 or for 8? I mean, his over-under is like...

1:26:58Bill Simmons:Did you do 8 or 10? I did 10. 10, okay. Yeah. All right. Well, then I'm going to have to get you back. Miles Garrett, Defensive Player of the Year, 4-1. I know it was on your list because I know it was on your list. I know you've been looking at it, and you've probably bet it in real life. And he will have one of those... He's just going to love being center of attention and being in big games. And here's the other thing with this. because he had 23 seconds. I was looking at his sacks where he'd have like 14, 15, 17. They're in these games where they're down by 20 points, you know, in the beginning of the third quarter.

1:27:35Bill Simmons:He, like, when you have something like that and you're up 10 in the fourth quarter when you know the other team is passing all the time, that's when people get sacks. So he's going to be in these situations that he's been in four times a year for the last five years. And now it's going to be over and over again where he's going to try to be Mariano Rivera in these games. So I feel like he had like 25 sacks this year.

1:27:58Cousin Sal:That's easily the smartest thing you've said in the last hour. Yeah, still trying. That's good. I didn't realize. Yeah, I mean, how does he get all these sacks for the Browns when the team is just running the ball trying to hold a lead? And he did it anyway, and now it's the opposite. Good job by you.

1:28:12Bill Simmons:It's something Lombardi always used to talk about. Like these pass rushes, when you have leads, that's when you really want the pass rush because when you know what the other team's going to do and you have these teams that have a good pass rush, but their offense sucks and they're down 10. It's like, well, what's the point of having a good pass rush? The other team's running the ball. All right, definitely.

1:28:33Cousin Sal:All right, I'm only doing one of these because I lose sleep over these when a team like Detroit or the Chiefs doesn't make the playoffs. So I'm taking teams to not advance to the postseason. I'm taking the Colts. I'm taking the Browns. I'm taking the Giants. I'm taking the Jets. I'm taking the Cardinals. And it's only plus 156. I got to tell you something. I'm not worried about any goddamn one of them right this second. Thank you in advance to Danny Dimes and Dart and Deshaun and Jacoby and Gino. Good Lord, those names. Plus 156.

1:29:05Bill Simmons:So Indianapolis is the one that could screw you here, probably. There's some smart people on the Giants. Smart people on playing for the Giants or on the petty? Stucky was on the Giants, which I was shocked by. Like the big, basically using the new coach theory with the Giants, that Harbaugh, you know, changing, which I love the new coach theory. I just don't know if Harbaugh is an upgrade from Brian Dayball in that way. Maybe I'm wrong.

1:29:32Cousin Sal:Old coach, yeah. I don't know. You are a member of the New York Giants. I drive a down Stratus. Their playoff odds went way, way up after that.

1:29:45Bill Simmons:Okay. Vikings fourth in the NFC North plus 175 is off the board. I like that. I didn't want to parlay that with anything. That's just a straight up. I think they're the worst team in the division. I think KOC is an outside chance for first coach. I'm just in disbelief with the love for Kyler Murray. I don't get it at all. We'll see. I'm happy to be wrong. We always need more good quarterbacks, but I just like that team by far the least in that division. So plus 175 sounds great.

1:30:17Cousin Sal:Good for you, man.

1:30:18Bill Simmons:You did it.

1:30:19Cousin Sal:I have a couple of these. You tipped me off to these. Team X to have more wins than Team Y. Love these. You know what? Since you did the Vikings, I'll do this too. Chargers more wins than the Vikings. Minus 130. I just did the math. I have the Bolts winning the AFC West, and I do not have the Kyler Murray-led Vikings at 500. Minus 130.

1:30:41Bill Simmons:Minus 130. Chargers more than Vikings. that's a really good one okay I'll keep the momentum going with what do I want to do here I'll keep the momentum going 30 second pause you know what I don't like your attitude so I'm going to take cowboys over 10 and a half plus 500 plus 500 is that right plus 500 burning burning money I like this because instead of betting the division, betting them to go 11 and 6, they'd win the division. But the division odds are plus 170. They go 11 and 6, I get plus 500 for that. Sign me up. Why would I not do that instead of betting them on the division? I'd rather have the 5 to 1, 11 to 6.

1:31:37Bill Simmons:I hate this. Jinx.

1:31:39Cousin Sal:I'm betting your team. You're betting my team. It's never going to work.

1:31:43Bill Simmons:Listen, we're aligned this year in the Cowboys. I have actual money on the Cowboys this year. I'm going to be rooting for them to win, and you just got to fucking suck it up and get used to it. Wow. This is what we're doing.

1:31:53Cousin Sal:We're both rooting for the Cowboys this year. Maybe you'll be more depressed next Sunday night. We'll both be depressed together. What do you got? B. John Robinson. I know you didn't like him. We talked about the Ringer Fantasy draft. If you had gotten the two seed or if he had dropped to you, a number two pick, I took him. Most rushing yards, plus 750. He was fourth with 1478 last year behind Taylor, Henry, and Cook. All three are older than he is. I think they're going to lean on him a lot. If you're right, and Atlanta can't figure out the quarterback thing, this guy is going to get a lot of carries and he's used to it.

1:32:29Cousin Sal:So plus 750 for most yards.

1:32:31Bill Simmons:I'm going to follow that up with Falcons under five and a half wins plus 190. Wow, it's been like 90 seconds since you were there. South pick. Good. Plus 190. Falcons 5-12 or worse I think they will have a top 5 pick next year that's pretty good

1:32:47Cousin Sal:alright how about this this is an exact finish parlay Raiders 4th why not Jets 3rd Cardinals 4th plus 229 Raiders 4th

1:33:05Bill Simmons:Jets 3rd Cardinals 4th plus 229 Who scores? Who screws me there? Honestly, nobody. It's maybe the Jets. Good man. That's really good. We'll take it. I'm going to put Seahawks, NFC West, plus 210 on the board.

1:33:27Cousin Sal:Hmm.

1:33:29Bill Simmons:I just like the odds. For the life of me, do not understand why they are such prohibitive underdogs against the Rams. I don't get it. I think both teams are probably two of the best teams in the league, but I don't understand why there's a dramatic disparity between the two. Especially when there's way more room for error with the Rams. You're talking like seven, eight guys where two go down and it's a different team. They have no depth at all.

1:33:54Cousin Sal:Yeah. You should be able to bet that week 18 decides it because it always seems to. It's a fun one. All right. As long as you have plus 210 on your mind. This is my Falcons. the Colts under six and a half plus 210. Just don't say it. Falcons, Colts. Colts under six and a half plus 210. Both of them. No, no, just the Colts. Oh, just the Colts. Yeah. Aren't they regularly seven and a half? Yeah. I think so. Yeah, so there you go. So that's a six and 11. Six and 11. Did you tell DiBondo you were doing this? Yeah, he endorses it. He covers his eyes and he knows what's coming because that was ridiculous what dan daniel jones did and i think he's gonna have the toughest time coming back from this injury and then what richardson's like third string string we're skipping over these

1:34:46Bill Simmons:injuries not you and i but just in general like we everybody is superhuman and just come back right away from acls and achilles and you know tatum came back for the celtics they ramped him up and he missed game seven uh quickly houston to win the afc south it's still plus 120 i like them so much more than every other team in that division. And really, it would only be Jacksonville, who is coming off, as we discussed in the over-under pods, not only is there a regression candidate, but they had an abysmal draft. They lost their first-round pick in the Hunter trade. Nobody liked the rest of the guys they took.

1:35:23Bill Simmons:They lost Travis Etienne, and I just think Houston's better than them. So plus 120 sounds fantastic. I'm with you.

1:35:30Cousin Sal:Can I piggyback a plus 120 Texans bet too? Yeah, what is it? the Texans to have more wins than the Eagles. I just look at my, I'd say 12 is bigger than nine. And that's it. I think that's honestly, I think they can win that by two games at least.

1:35:47Bill Simmons:Um, now man, you're going to be mad at me. I have another one. Houston and Seattle over nine and a half wins each. It's all right. Tampa over eight and a half wins plus four 22. I need two 10 and 7s from Houston and Seattle and a 9 and 8 from Tampa plus 122. Sign me up. Sounds great. I have broken my rule of not putting three teams in a parlay with overrunners. I just didn't.

1:36:14Cousin Sal:You had a really good run. Yeah. You know what?

1:36:16Bill Simmons:I'm not going to apologize. Not even one commercial break. Nine and a half each, and then Tampa over eight and a half. I would honestly be stunned if they couldn't win nine games. That just means Baker got hurt. or their left tackle got hurt.

1:36:31Cousin Sal:I hate to do this as a friend, but I really want to root against Tampa and for Atlanta now so that you hate the NFC South as much as I do. And it's the only way this is going to change. This is the only way I'm going to learn? Okay. Fair.

1:36:44Bill Simmons:All right, what do you got? We running out yet? Because I have a lot more.

1:36:48Cousin Sal:No, no. I can make another Offensive Rookie of the Year pick too, right? Can I have a couple? Or just the one? Jacoby Lane on the AFC side. USC guy, third round pick for the Ravens. Harbaugh never would start these guys. He would like these, like, not first rounders. He was a third round pick. So he would send them right to the special teams. Right. But he's getting first string reps with Jesse Minther's version of the Ravens. So I think it's worth it at plus 2200. Jacoby Lane, welcome to Team Sal.

1:37:20Bill Simmons:Plus 2200 is nice odds.

1:37:25Bill Simmons:Okay. man I have a lot of good ones left I'm going to do this as a tandem just because I think it's a tandem bet so it's two bets but I like the two as a combo because I think it has to be one of these two teams okay Baltimore one seed plus 500 Houston one seed plus 750 I think you do both and try to hit one so basically if it's one unit each I'm either out two units or I'm up four units or I'm up six and a half units. But it's basically a bet on Baltimore or Houston will be the one seed. FanDuel, if you want to throw that up as a ringer feature bet, knock yourself out. But I think it's those two.

1:38:11Bill Simmons:I don't see any other team in the AFC having a better record than those two teams. So you're saying the West battles each other. Yeah. Their winner is 11 games.

1:38:22Cousin Sal:I think it's probably Baltimore.

1:38:23Bill Simmons:Patriots and Bills do the same. Yeah, it's basically, I like the Baltimore for the one seed because of the schedule with Houston as the hedge, plus 750. And that's the move. I kind of enjoyed that one.

1:38:34Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's a good one. You took me through it. What do you got next?

1:38:41Cousin Sal:Let me do Parker Washington over four and a half touchdown receptions, minus 122.

1:38:49Bill Simmons:You mother fucker.

1:38:51Cousin Sal:I knew you had it, And I think you're going to bid$21 on him in our draft. I love Parker Washington. Five or more touchdowns, minus 122. Oh, man. That's a really good one.

1:39:07Bill Simmons:It's minus 122, though? Minus 122. Okay. That's all right. Could afford. I'll take the other. Where's the other Parker? Isn't there a Parker Washington? Oh, yeah. I have him 1 ,000 yards. Yards. Plus 165. not bad so we we both we both have parker washington insurance yeah uh i thought he was incredible down the stretch last year i loved him it's at it it was just he put it together he was open all the time teams knew he was going to get open and then he would get open and lawrence found him and he's awesome i think he's the best receiver on that team yeah they're just their past

1:39:47Cousin Sal:game in general is going to be great, I think. All right, emotional hedge here. Oh, boy. Hurts, 10-plus rushing touchdowns, plus 145. Hasn't this hit, like, every year? It did. I don't think it didn't hit last year, right? I'm pretty sure it took a tumble last year because that whole offense

1:40:08Bill Simmons:was not good.

1:40:10Cousin Sal:And here I am singing songs about how, oh, the Tush Push only worked 64 % of the time versus 81%. But he's going to shove it right up my keister now again. Yeah. Yeah, he had eight last year. 14, 15, 13, and 10 the four years before. They'll hit 10. And they're going to play with a little more pace this year too, it sounds like. Yeah. So what did you get for odds for that? Plus 145. 10 or more.

1:40:36Bill Simmons:All right. Continuing with my Baltimore theme. Last year, I hit the coach of the year. And this year, I think I'm going to hit it as well. Jesse Minter plus 850 for coach of the year. I think it's a good way to bet the one seed with Baltimore and I probably just should have done that instead of what I did. But they won, I think, they either won eight games or nine games last year. I can't remember. But if they're a 12 or 13 win team. Yeah. Combined with all the stuff we've been reading, which we talked about on the pod last week about how much the players love him, blah, blah, blah. I just think he's every year there's a guy that comes in who is the hot assistant who comes in and just is an awesome coach right away.

1:41:18Bill Simmons:Two years ago, it was McDonald. Last year, Ben Johnson. This year, it's going to be him. I just, I think it's going to be him. So, plus 850 for that.

1:41:25Cousin Sal:That's a good one. I have Zach Taylor and you have, so I'll be funny if it's one of those two.

1:41:31Bill Simmons:You have Zach Taylor with way better juice.

1:41:33Cousin Sal:It's stupid, yeah. Okay. Dolphins' worst record, let me just grab this, plus 220. You want to win money? How much you want to win, Bill? You want to win 22 million? Bet a million. That's a great one. on Dolphins' worst. Plus 220. Way too many young players. Way too much dead cap money. We went over it last week. Disgusting. Sorry, Malik Willis, but this is what it's going to be.

1:42:01Bill Simmons:That's a good one. It was on my list. Did I do Washington Under yet? Have I done that? I don't think alone. yeah I'm gonna do Washington under 5 and a half wins plus 220 I just like the value because I have the Atlanta one that I took earlier that was plus 190 this is plus 220 so basically if one of those hit I'm up right it's basically a Washington or Atlanta 2 to 1 odds that one of them will go a 5-12 or worse. And I honestly think both of them could. But yeah, plus 2-12. You hate House's team. Thursday nights are going to be fun. The ironic thing, House is like me. When his team sucks, he'll be the first to tell you.

1:42:55Bill Simmons:And I think he thinks they're going to suck.

1:42:57Cousin Sal:Yeah, he does.

1:42:58Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:42:59Cousin Sal:I just feel like we called a regression last year, right? Then, I don't know.

1:43:06Bill Simmons:Do you think we should have called this podcast Harlan Cohen's Guest Alliance? because it's on Netflix. Oh, interesting. Is it Coben? Harlan Coben or Harlan Cohen? I don't know. Who's the guy that's on Netflix? Very few people get to put their name in front of the show. Tyler Perry gets to do this. Well, it obviously didn't work because you don't know how to say it. It's Harlan Coben. Harlan Coben.

1:43:29Cousin Sal:C-O-B-E-N.

1:43:30Bill Simmons:Yeah, he puts his name in the front of the shows and they always crush on the streamers. Interesting. And we could have done Harlan Coben's Guest Alliance year 20. And I wonder if it would have done better on Netflix. Yeah, you're right.

1:43:42Cousin Sal:I really regret that. Is it too late? Let's put a poll up. See if it's too late. All right, this is a thinker, but Pat's sixth seed is plus 1 ,000. I like them to make the playoffs. This is really good. But not win the division. Yeah. I don't think they'll have as many wins as the two West teams that make it, but still enough to get to the postseason. I like them. I like them for the seventh seed, too. But the sixth seed is plus 1 ,000. And I do think you can rack your brain and hedge out of it too. Week 18 somehow.

1:44:15Bill Simmons:Really smart. I was looking at them to win the AFC East plus 140. And I was going to do it later. But since you just directly attacked me, I'm going to do it right now. Pats to win the AFC East plus 140. I said this to you when did the overrunners. I have no idea why them and Buffalo don't have the same odds. Nobody can explain it. Buffalo, as gamblers, as people who think about the lines and the action, when something doesn't add up to what it actually should be just because a team is popular or there's narratives that have nothing to do with the actual thing, that's where you want to be. This Buffalo thing, everybody just has decided Josh Allen is going to win 11 games for the rest of his life.

1:45:03Bill Simmons:And I think there's some real question marks with them. and for some reason people have way more question marks with the Pats. I'm not saying who's right or who's wrong. But I think to me it's an either or.

1:45:14Cousin Sal:They have won 11 games six years in a row, haven't they? I get it. But they just fired their coach.

1:45:20Bill Simmons:And it's like Joe Brady's going to be great. I don't know. Is he? What are your favorite Joe Brady moments? He could be the new Vrabel. Who knows? Maybe. Mike Vrabel had won though.

1:45:30Cousin Sal:He'd gone to the AFC title game. Who's Joe Brady done? How big of favorites are they for that? for the division.

1:45:37Bill Simmons:The Buffalo is a slight favorite for the division. They're a minus, and the Pats are plus 140.

1:45:42Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:45:43Bill Simmons:I'm saying they should be the same odds, so I'm grabbing the action. Okay. That's fine.

1:45:47Cousin Sal:What do you got? Well, I think you have one of these, but you haven't said it yet. And I think if you give this guy protection and let him sling it, then the Chargers end up with 12 wins. That 11-1 for Justin Herbert for MVP is a fun bet. Yeah, I like it. I'm too high on the Chargers. Who are you too high on? The Ravens?

1:46:11Bill Simmons:I'm too high on the Chargers. You know, I was going to be there with you until the center got hurt. And the left guard, center, right guard combo, everybody was like, this is going to be abominable. That really scared me. Slater's the key. I have a Herbert one as well that I'm going to get off here. I think it's slightly better odds than what you just did. And it's basically the same bet. Justin Herbert. 4 ,500 yards. 12 to one. Oh, yeah. Now, I looked up because I was like, he's throwing for somewhere around there, right? He threw for 5 ,000 yards once. Yep. 2 ,000, 2021 range. And now McDaniel, and they're going to have actually a healthy offensive line.

1:46:54Bill Simmons:This is one of my favorite bets. Let me write that down. Would you say 4 ,500? 4 ,500 yards, 12 to one.

1:47:00Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's great.

1:47:01Bill Simmons:So you figure he has a 475-yard game and like a 460, right? He'll get close to 1 ,002 games. And then the rest, it's just like a shootout, whatever happens. And then I just need to keep him healthy the rest of the way, and I'm going to get my 45. I like that. Yeah. I like it.

1:47:21Cousin Sal:All right. What do I do? So you're going to hate this. Okay. But who do you have for comeback play of the year? because I have Jaden Daniels at plus 750. Oh, I like it. It doesn't mean he has to win 12 games.

1:47:36Bill Simmons:So I've boycotted this bet after whatever, when they changed the rules about what constituted a comeback. I just got too confused. But you're right. It's probably something like that.

1:47:47Cousin Sal:Don't we want something to scream about? Like, yeah. They tell you Aaron Donald is not eligible because you can't be retired and come back. And yet he's sitting there as a third favorite at plus 850. Why can't you be retired and come back?

1:48:01Bill Simmons:Isn't that the definition of a comeback? I think it is. I didn't play football for three years, and then I came back.

1:48:06Cousin Sal:Yeah. Guess who's coming back? Aaron Donald. Yeah. I think it counts as a comeback. A comeback player? Yeah.

1:48:13Bill Simmons:I find it hard to believe Mahomes isn't going to win this unless he goes like 7 and 10. Man, he's such a big favorite, though. Plus 150. All right. Another favorite of mine. One of my favorite guys in the league. Like Mallory took him in our ringer fantasy draft right ahead of me. I was upset about it. Tried to, I didn't want to give her the satisfaction. Brock Bowers, thousand yards plus 135. That's good. A couple of things for this. One, when he's actually healthy, he gets between 90 and 130 yards. That's one. Two, there's always less late games and you need stuff to root for in the late games.

1:48:52Bill Simmons:and most of the time it's these two shit teams playing each other that you can't believe you bet on the game. It's really fun to just root for Brock Bowers to make catches. That's two. Three, their receivers are other than maybe Miami the worst receivers in the league, but Miami doesn't have anyone like Brock Bowers. Kubiak even said he had a quote last week about, what's that guy's name? Jack Beck? Yeah. Bash, yes. Jack Bash, however you say it. And they asked Kubiak like has anybody stood out so far in the receiver room? And he was like, nope. He's like, the answer is no, they have not. So Trey Tucker, whatever Tucker.

1:49:34Bill Simmons:Yeah. But Bowers, I just think as long as he doesn't get hurt, and that's the problem with all of these, but how does he not get a thousand yards?

1:49:41Cousin Sal:And we might play 12 games and get a thousand yards. Yeah, that's true. That's a good one. Yeah, because Kubiak and they work well together. Kubiak and Cousins traditionally. So, yeah. Okay. Yeah. I'm going to write that down. What do you got? What do you got? All right. I just did Bowers. Bills more wins than the Chiefs minus 120. Could be a lot more, but I have an 11 to 10. And again, Bills 11 plus wins six years in a row.

1:50:08Bill Simmons:That's minus 120. Minus 120. Okay. I had a bunch of over the Chiefs bets I wanted to do, and I got psyched out. You did? I did. I just, I think the Chiefs, I don't think they have the talent. I don't think they're going to be good. And yet, I don't want to bet against them because the league will be so invested in trying to get them to 10 wins and trying to get them to be good. And I just, I don't want to be on the other side of that. Just been burned by them over the years. Okay. I'm almost out of things. You want to just feed round five more each? I have more each. What do you want? Well, I'm running out of ones I really like, but one of them is Bears over 9.5 wins plus 120.

1:50:54Bill Simmons:Okay. 10 and 7, I win. And I'm still a fan. The regression and the harder scheduled thing, I just think that team has a lot of talent, and I really believe in Ben Johnson. As we talked about in the over-unders last week, I think he is a top 5, 6, 7 coach in the league. and I find it hard to believe he's going to go 9-8 with the weapons that they have. I don't see it.

1:51:19Cousin Sal:It's a good one. It's a good one. Caleb Downs, defensive rookie of the year, plus 700. Have to have it. Have to have it on my ledger. God bless this kid. Already a great leader. Maybe the best leader we've ever had through three preseason games.

1:51:34Bill Simmons:Such a home run pick. The Giants passed on him, right? They took the linemen?

1:51:39Cousin Sal:Yeah, well, they got, yeah. So they, right, they went the other way with it, yep. Yeah. Just a huge mistake. Just show him up.

1:51:52Bill Simmons:Did we do a Buka 1 ,000 yards at plus 150 yet? I don't think we did. No. Yeah, I'm taking it. I mean, he almost had this in half the season last year. He's going to have to do it.

1:52:06Cousin Sal:I have a lot of... Now I know exactly what your fantasy team is going to look like Tuesday. day.

1:52:12Bill Simmons:I'm all for value and I don't understand who else is catching a thousand yards on that team out of all the receivers they have when Mike Evans isn't on the team anymore.

1:52:20Cousin Sal:You're going to have Baker and all his receivers. You only mentioned one. Sounds great. I'll take all of them. You're not going to have any Falcons. You're going to have Brock Bowers. How about Stafford? Most passing yards plus 500. Why not? MVP gets rid of the in like a second and a half. I know I went against myself with Puka under, but they threw it like three tight ends. It's over the place. Yeah.

1:52:50Bill Simmons:I'm going to do another David Montgomery bet because for some reason you left me both of the good ones. David Montgomery, eight touchdowns. Just eight. Minus one or two. That's better. Eight. Rushing, right? Rushing. Yeah. I think it's just touchdowns. Is it? I thought it was touchdowns. Either way, I'll take it at 8, minus 102.

1:53:16Cousin Sal:All right.

1:53:19Bill Simmons:Here we go. Who's going to tap out? We forgot to call this the Fogo to Chow draft.

1:53:25Cousin Sal:You got that. I tap out. Daniel Jones, under 18 and a half. Touchdown passes. Plus 102. You get a plus number for that. I don't think he's good for one a game. Under 18 and a half touchdowns. Plays 13 games. He's going to have to get like one and a half a game. What are the odds on that? Plus 102. It's right there.

1:53:51Bill Simmons:So, you know, my dad has six brothers and sisters. Yeah. Michael Chuck, who's been the topic of a lot of conversation over the years. Love Uncle Chuck. Great athlete. Quirky. One of the things with Chuck, eats a lot. Goes out to dinner, overeats. Like a combination of Brad, but also like a golden retriever. Like if you just left too much food out and can't stop eating and then is sick. Right. Stayed with my dad last month. When he stays over, he needs a chair in his bedroom that he can sit in because routinely he eats too much and he can't lie down, so he has to get up and he wants to sit in a chair so he can digest better.

1:54:40Bill Simmons:So when he comes, they have to make sure there's a chair in there. Wait a minute, wait a minute. What? And so they took him like Abe and Louis or something when he was in town. He ate way too much. And my daughter was with them too, watching him just in disbelief how much he was eating. Like it was house eat style. And then the next day he's like, yeah, I had to sleep in the chair.

1:55:03Bill Simmons:Uncle Chuck.

1:55:06Cousin Sal:Holy shit. He's my hero. We're going to make the t-shirts. The chair. So he starts in the bed or he starts in the chair?

1:55:12Bill Simmons:He starts in the bed, but it's like eventually knows he has to end up in the chair.

1:55:16Cousin Sal:Oh, this is Brad.

1:55:17Bill Simmons:This is our friend Brad. Yeah. Oh, that's amazing. This is like House happened to go in the phone booth that time that had no phone. Just sitting in the phone booth in Portland.

1:55:26Cousin Sal:Uncle Chuck. Fly him out, please.

1:55:29Bill Simmons:All right, last one. Or last couple. Well, then we're going to do a Super Bowl, right? All right, I'll do one more. I'll do one. Am I up? You had Daniel Jones as your last one. Yeah, go ahead. Okay. So I will bang out. Man, I really did everything. I did everything I wanted to do except for... Oh.

1:55:53Cousin Sal:Come on. Uncle Chuck's waiting. He's getting sleepy.

1:55:57Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think I'm tapping out. Really? I think I'm down a Super Bowl pick. All right. Oh, yeah, I'm tapping out. Oh, I'll do. I'll take a flyer. No, I'm out. I'm tapping. Oh, did we do? Do we do price for offensive rookie of the year? I don't think we did. 700 yards or something. Yeah. No, you did. Yeah, I'm going to do price offensive rookie of the year plus 650. Okay. I'm not doing either Cleveland receiver. I looked at that long and hard. I got excited about Boston. I actually had that bet. They're going to have a quarterback thing. Yeah, the quarterback thing is a disaster.

1:56:29Cousin Sal:Yeah. I'm trying to think if there's another category we missed completely, but we're good, right? I don't think we did. Yeah, we're good.

1:56:36Bill Simmons:Do your Super Bowl pick. What is it?

1:56:38Cousin Sal:Well, my Super Bowl pick is the Rams over Bills at plus$3 ,050.

1:56:47Bill Simmons:Rams over Bills.

1:56:48Cousin Sal:And if it turns out to be the exact score, which I have it as, and it will, 31-16 pays 50 ,700. No, I made that up. But 31-16 Rams beat the Bills in SoFi this year. And what are the odds if that happens? Plus 30-50.

1:57:06Bill Simmons:Plus 30-50. So basically 30-1.

1:57:08Cousin Sal:Yeah, Bills finally get there.

1:57:10Bill Simmons:Where are you going with it? Don't say the Patriots. I feel like you've picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl. I know. At least four times. And when you think about it, there's no dumber pick than picking the bills when they've never won a super bowl. And we talked to them. I did it last year. And then it's the playoffs and Josh Allen's overthrowing somebody in the end zone and the build juju come back. And it's like, why, why is anyone betting on this? Like if it happens, it happens, but we shouldn't, shouldn't be something you put money on, but we can't resist.

1:57:40Cousin Sal:It's going to be a good hedge if they make it to the championship game, which they didn't. Well, they didn't do that last year either. I don't know. They've one of these years.

1:57:48Bill Simmons:My Super Bowl pick is Seattle over Houston, Seattle going back-to-back. It's plus 53-40, so it's basically 54-1 odds. Wow. I normally avoid the back-to-back Super Bowl champ. The lack of respect for Seattle this whole offseason has been truly breathtaking, and if there's ever a team that can be the nobody-believes-in-us back-to-back Super Bowl champ, I think we found it. People don't believe in Sam Darnold. even you guys are talking about the NFC West thing like he led the division interceptions last year are we sure he was even that good in the playoffs are we sure the running backs are good Kubiak now that he's in Vegas are they going to be able to run the ball their defense is worse schedule is harder the Rams are a super team this is just nobody believes in us like smorgasbord they're completely disrespected they won the title last year even the Super Bowl Even the line for week one was disrespectful.

1:58:47Bill Simmons:Three and a half playing a team they killed in the Super Bowl eight months ago.

1:58:51Cousin Sal:It's because it's Sam Darnold. I mean, let's face it, right? You think that's it? Yeah, of course. Because you wouldn't be shocked after saying all that. And I pose this to the Ring of Wise guys. If he had like 22 interceptions. And by the way, his interceptions went up last year from the year before. And I think he plays worse defenses this year on paper. But are you going to be shocked if he becomes like the Sam Darnold of the Jets? or like a little worse. I don't know.

1:59:16Bill Simmons:It's more of a bet for me on McDonald's and the fact that he just might be 2000's Belichick again. This team, even the games they lost, they almost won, you know, dating back to like a year and a half. And I just, I love that everybody does not believe in them. It fits my profile.

1:59:38Cousin Sal:I can't even tell who you're going to root for on Wednesday. So what was your favorite?

1:59:43Bill Simmons:of that? That's not funny. What was your favorite of all your things? We did like almost 80, it feels like.

1:59:51Cousin Sal:The first one, the Jets. Isn't that sick? Isn't that disgusting that the Jets to come in third is my favorite after all this whole summer reading?

1:59:58Bill Simmons:I think my favorite is Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs plus 112. But I also really like Falcons to offense. The first two I took, the fourth place, plus 343. Yeah, your favorite

2:00:07Cousin Sal:has to be the NFC South. Yeah. All right, that was really fun. Just so people know the plan. We give these out on Netflix and then we jump in your 2002 Dodge Intrepid and we drive to the Kentucky-Tennessee border and we place these bets and then we drive back, hopefully in time for Pat's Seahawks kickoff.

2:00:24Bill Simmons:We did that with Harlan Coben.

2:00:26Cousin Sal:And with Harlan Coben. The three of us. It's going to be his next movie. We do everything by the book. You're going to wear a seatbelt. Everything.

2:00:34Bill Simmons:I've been wearing a seatbelt for the last month. I'm still unclear why this made people so upset. But if I had said I was smoking 10 cigarettes a day, would that make people more or less

2:00:48Cousin Sal:upset than the seatbelt? I think it's right up there. Let's take Babydoll, for instance. I think this is something I could see Babydoll, our agent, our crazy agent doing, not you. And by the way, you throw out there that you can't see. You're freaking Helen Keller. You're not able to see. No, I can see far. I can't see close. I see far. Great. Isn't the windshield close? Yeah. There's shit that goes on that's close.

2:01:12Bill Simmons:Thanks for making it worse. No, you're using it now. This episode is brought to you by ChatGBT. Imagine you're running a professional sports team. Nice. Imagine the player contract report is due today. Not so nice. You've got performance notes from the coaching staff. You've got a salary spreadsheet from your analyst. Three rounds of back and forth emails with the agent. And all of it is scattered absolutely everywhere. Well, that's where ChatGBT work comes in. It's a new way to use ChatGPT for bigger multi-step projects. Give ChatGPT work access to your apps and files and can create real work documents.

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2:03:05Bill Simmons:Pick up your copy of NBA 2K27 right now. Wow, that's good. Today's Parent Corner, I'm squinting, is brought to you by Instagram. Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default, built-in content settings for the content teens can see, and I can't see, contact limits for who can contact them, and time management tools like daily time limits and sleep mode. My left eye is so dry. Teens are automatically placed in the teen accounts and teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict. Instagram will continue adding built-in safety features to help create age-appropriate experiences.

2:03:45Bill Simmons:I'm so glad they're doing this. I think I read that correctly.

2:03:48Cousin Sal:I think in like five minutes, you're like, so hold on. We got to do, it was Instacart. I read it wrong. It's interstellar. I don't know.

2:03:59Bill Simmons:was it instagram that was instagram i got that right okay you're up first all right all right

2:04:04Cousin Sal:i have two beach stories with the summer officially wound down here so yeah last week my youngest 12 year old harris so and i we um we're gonna go to the beach i'm like we're running out of days here so he brings a surfboard we stop at the convenience store get some fruit sandwiches chips drinks um in heaven we walk down to the beach i lay it all out on the blanket i'm like let's eat first and then we'll go in the sea and it'll be great. And he says, he's like, no, no, no, I gotta go. I gotta go. The waves are good. They could go away. Like, they go away? He's like, yeah, it really could get less and, you know, it could be shorter waves.

2:04:38Cousin Sal:I'm like, all right, fine. So now all the food's out. And I'm like recording him. He's like, actually catching a couple and I'm getting some good shots and then someone sets up a blanket right in front of me. And so now I can't record. So I have to walk down and record him. I just want a minute of him and then I'll walk back. So I'm recording him. And I just happened to look back and there were 30 effing seagulls on our blanket and they just devoured everything. The sandwiches, the chips, and I go running up there like I'm a madman. They took the tub of watermelon, which is heavy for a bird. These scumbag rat birds took everything, everything, everything.

2:05:17And a half hour later,

2:05:19Cousin Sal:Harrison comes out of the ocean. I'm like, well, we got some bad news. I'm like, the food is gone. He's like, well, how much? I'm like, All of it. Literally all of it. Yes, all of it. It's like a little scrap of lettuce on the blanket, but a seagull will be there in a minute to get there. All right, so that's that story. Cut to a week later. Can I interrupt you quick on that? Yeah, that was my fault. Completely my fault.

2:05:40Bill Simmons:Nothing cute about kids or anything. What do seagulls bring to the table?

2:05:44Cousin Sal:No, I know.

2:05:45Bill Simmons:It's kind of an underrated, they don't get enough scorn bird to feel like. Awful. Who has a good seagull story? Anyway, keep going.

2:05:52Cousin Sal:I have a good one. My father hated him so much. She would maybe plant Alka-Seltzer on the blanket. Yeah. He's a bad dude. Poof. Not good for seagulls. Oh, my God. Read the back of the... Probably shouldn't have said that. At least we're not live. I know. There you go. All right. Okay, so fast forward another beach story to a couple days ago, our friend Brad. How would you describe for our first time Netflix? Actually, he's been on Netflix. He was in that hitchhiker, that hatchet-wielding hitchhiker thing.

2:06:29Bill Simmons:He's been on this pod with us. He's been, we've done stuff with him.

2:06:33Cousin Sal:Go back and listen. He's just a crazy person. He fled. He joined the Navy to escape paying gambling debts.

2:06:41Bill Simmons:He doesn't have a nervous system, I think, would be the best way to describe him. That's good. The way he is day-to-day, hour-to-hour, minutes-to-minute is like if somebody came in right now and threw fireworks into the studio as I was doing the pod and I jumped up because I was scared,

2:06:58Cousin Sal:that's kind of him all the time, I would say. And he's loud and he's boisterous and he's very confident, right? Very confident. He'll go after you. A lot of opinions. The draft's going to be fun with him just going after. So anyway, all right. So I have custody of him for a couple of days when Kimmel's on hiatus and he comes out here and he's like, I only want to go to the beach. So you would think if he only wanted to go to the beach, he would bring a bathing suit. But being 53 years old and having lived here a couple decades, he doesn't own a bathing suit. So I have to lend him a bathing suit.

2:07:29Cousin Sal:Oh no, burn that thing. Yeah, that's it. So I lend him a bathing suit. Burn him and the seagulls at the same time. I lend him a bathing suit. I don't expect to see it again. So he goes right for the ocean when we get there. And he is getting pounded. He is getting slammed to shit by the, by the waves. And he's screaming at the waves while he's getting slammed. He's like, turn it off, turn it off. It's like a lot of it is for show, but he's also getting like thrown around. And he also doesn't know how to, like the drawstring is a foreign concept to him. He just puts it on. I guess he's never had a bathing suit before.

2:08:03Cousin Sal:And so when he's getting hit by the waves, his, his, my bathing suit is immediately coming down. So he's nude and he's screaming in the ocean and onlookers watching from the beach. The reaction range from somewhere between thoroughly amused and considering pressing charges. And so after I'm not getting like 20 minutes of this, my son Jack comes up to me. He's like, Hey, I think we should get him out. I'm like, all right, let's get him out. I'm on the thoroughly amused side, but let's get him out. And as I'm coming out.

2:08:31Bill Simmons:We should mention you're also videotaping this. Yes. I'll send in the videos later. Yeah, exactly.

2:08:36Cousin Sal:I sent it to you. and uh and like the lifeguard walks up too and he's like hey uh should you get him out like he's asking me if i should get him out like this is a situation like he should probably be in there but he doesn't want to touch brad and so so i'm going to have to pull him out he's like oh what do you do what are you doing i pull him out i'm like you're nude you're screaming you're a menace i have to get you out and he's like motherfucker i was just having fun out there i'm like having fun you're dying then the lifeguard thought he was drowning right yeah the lifeguard's like hey go get him he's drowning it's not a lifeguard thing to do anyway that's that we've watched the Ray Gunn documentary that was my fourth son I mean here's the thing

2:09:21Bill Simmons:he can't keep his normal pants on everyone in LA has seen his butt crack for 23 years so putting a bathing suit on him I don't know how tight the jawstring would have to be it's true Yeah. I should have duct taped it to him. Yeah. Yeah. You might have, or do the thing where they painted it on. Well, it is now, so you can figure it out. Rad. I have two stories, both about walks. I went back to Boston for my daughter's first two games, walking to the game. And it's kind of, it's like drizzling a little bit. We're walking through the city and I'm walking with, my daughter's already there. I'm walking with her boyfriend, the famous Hank and my son, Ben, and feel like this thing hit my head, which I thought was water, but I was like, man, that felt heavy.

2:10:11Bill Simmons:Pull my head up and it's a giant green bird shit. That's just a clump. And I throw it down. So now, now it's in my hand. I'm wiping on the thing, but then, and Ben and Hank are horrified, but I'm like, no, no, this is good luck. This is good luck. This is a big Italian thing. I wrote about this in 2004 when the Red Sox, that whole playoff run, I got shit on by a bird and I didn't wash the shirt because it was good luck. And I have a whole column about it. So I was like, this is great luck. There's no way Zoe's not scoring tonight. Wish we could have bet on it, but they don't have a lot of D3 women's soccer.

2:10:50Bill Simmons:But anyway, she did score. It was a good start to the season. I get to the game and people are like, hey, Bill. And I'm like, don't shake my hand. Hold on. I got birds. I walked like an extra 15 yards. So anyway, that was one. The other one is go to Fenway with my dad and my son and Hank. And my dad takes an Uber. He meets us there. And then we're going to walk back to his place after, which I would say is a 25 minute walk. We leave Fenway. They get killed by the Mariners. It was the one good game. The Mariners have played probably in 10 days. And I want to mention just as an aside, I hate the Mariners with the passion of seven hells.

2:11:27Bill Simmons:Wow. We have so many of them on our fantasy team. Kate Anderson, who they yanked around forever, finally brought up, and now he's not even doing as well as we thought. George Kirby, who I would rather quit fantasy baseball than have him again. Josh Naylor, who's been pretty good this year and limped through, just didn't run out of double play where the second baseman bobbled the ball, throws it, and somehow they still get Josh Naylor in the double play because the whole team has quit on the manager. and then Munoz, the best closer in the L who's blown nine saves this year and every time he comes in he throws 100 miles an hour and people just hit it everywhere.

2:12:05Bill Simmons:I hate this team. I can't even imagine how Mariners feel. I don't know why they haven't fired Dan Wilson except there's a theory that they want the Mariners fans to feel happy after the year so they're saving the Dan Wilson firing. Anyway, we lose to the fucking Mariners and we're leaving Fenway and my dad's like, we should take a cab. now it's like this huge mass of people. And we're like, nah, we'll walk slow. Ask this guy. There's a cab driver there. It's like, how much would you tell the address? He's like 35. I'm like, we're not paying 35 to go. It's a, it's a short walk. Dad, you'll be fine.

2:12:40Bill Simmons:We're walking. He starts complaining halfway through. My dad's 78. He's doing the, I'm 14 months till being 80. We stop at one intersection. He puts his hand on the meter. Then he says he has a pulled groin he's like i pulled my groin a few months ago and i so now we're arguing about his pulled groin on the intersection that hey pulled the groin how are you like playing pickleball get to the house um he's completely wiped out and then the next day he's supposed to go to the museum with ben and uh and bails because he was still worn out from the fenway park 25 minute walk which we then argued about for the rest of the way and he's like you should be more supportive I have a pulled groin and I guess this is just what our relationship is going to be like with our parents for the rest of our lives

2:13:25Cousin Sal:I am a thousand percent on his side with this pulled groin 25 minute walk 25 minute walk first of all that doesn't even count all the meatheads who are going to approach you yeah I love what you do man hey you know what you should do you should talk about when Tatum and Brown and they're like oh my how do you even deal with that for 25 minutes $35 who the fuck who cared I thought you were going to say it was like it was a nice day It was a nice walk. Everyone's going slow anyway. So now you're aggravating that.

2:13:53Bill Simmons:78. I didn't even know he had a pulled groin. So now I felt like I was like an elder abuser. Yeah. Yeah, then he wouldn't go to the museum the next day. Wow. That sucks. And then I should mention during Power Corner, we have a new strategy with my mom. Yeah. Because you'll know this because the Italian side, they want to be invited, but they never want to come. Oh, yeah. So we now call my mom every time we're doing anything because she'll turn it down. But then she feels like we thought about her and we asked her. Like, you want to go to this Labor Day party tonight? Starts at six o 'clock. There's no way she's going.

2:14:32Bill Simmons:But now she feels like, oh, they thought of me. They were nice enough to invite me. And you somehow win points inviting them to do something they'll never do. I know you identify with this. Right. That's good. Of course. Are you making her walk? Is that why she's ever going? My mom walks every day. My mom was outraged that my dad wouldn't. He was like, this is why we got divorced.

2:14:54Cousin Sal:That's why.

2:14:58Bill Simmons:See, now he's going to be mad at me. I don't know. I love it. Like 20, short, slow, 25-minute walk.

2:15:04Cousin Sal:Yeah. 78. Yeah. I mean, you power walk through the Sistine Chapel. I mean, it's just a foreign concept to you.

2:15:11Bill Simmons:When we went to the Red Sox game, I didn't see him on the injury report. Like, shouldn't they put questionable?

2:15:16Cousin Sal:Questionable Groid? You took your Mariner's frustration out on a 78-year-old man. Very sad.

2:15:22Bill Simmons:One other thing on Fenway Park, they have the Fenway Frank, which is delicious. But they also have the Jumbo Fenway Frank. It's like a fatter, better one. I think it's the best hot dog of any stadium. It's really delicious. And they have the spicy brown mustard, too. I just forgot.

2:15:38Cousin Sal:Oh, they do have it? Okay. So I think they're like one of four parks that have the spicy brown. There must have been a lawsuit there somewhere because Citi Field has it. Dodger Stadium does not.

2:15:48Bill Simmons:Yeah, they only have like the gross yellow mustard.

2:15:50Cousin Sal:The yellow for seven-year-old kids, the yellow mustard.

2:15:53Bill Simmons:Can we make this a passion thing for us for the rest of the year is to push for more spicy brown mustard? It's like, that's what goes with a hot dog.

2:16:01Cousin Sal:Of course. The only thing I could think is there was a lawsuit. Someone burnt their tongue or some idiot complained and that was that.

2:16:07Bill Simmons:Oh, like it was too spicy?

2:16:09Cousin Sal:Yeah, so just make a nice spicy yellow.

2:16:11Bill Simmons:Yeah, I just forgot how good that jumbo dog is. It was great. I had a great time. Anyway, that's Parent Corner for us. It was brought to you by Instagram. Instagram teen accounts come with automatic protections that limit who can contact teens, the content they can see, and the time they spend on the app. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com slash teen accounts. I pulled it off.

2:16:36Cousin Sal:Comes with automatic erections.

2:16:39Bill Simmons:Protections. Damn it. I can't read.

2:16:41Cousin Sal:I screwed up again.

2:16:44Bill Simmons:Oh, man. All right. That's it. We did it. Let me say one thing.

2:16:49Cousin Sal:I won't get us in trouble. But with the Hank thing, and I just, I'm not going to get us in trouble here. But the lengths you went through to get rid of your daughter's boyfriend, it was Tony Spano-esque. I can't believe it. I feel the opposite. I love Hank. I didn't want to put Hank in jeopardy. he fell for a hook line. So you think it was a Tony Soprano move? Really was. I mean, he's got a work release. He has to get out for three hours to go to a Red Sox game with you. It's very sad.

2:17:21Bill Simmons:Listen, it was a very funny bit on the podcast last week and probably colored my opinion on whether it should stay because we're always going to go for the comedy first. This week, you're going to get in trouble because your dad was feeding Alka-Seltzer to Seagulls.

2:17:35Cousin Sal:This is just how it's going to go. You fed your dad to the Seagulls I was making a block. Apparently I did. His mystery pulled grid. People are already mad at me. They say I instigated that whole Hank story. And I feel like I run interference on some of your controversial decisions. Remember when you, at the time, you wanted to come out and brag about tossing your jury summons in the trash? And I'm like, don't, don't do it. You're going to get in trouble. And you're like, yeah, we didn't do it.

2:18:01Bill Simmons:You made that up. You made that up. That's it for Harlan Coben's Guess the Lions, year 20. check that out uh thanks eduardo and chris and gahau and jack and everybody at spotify jack wilson just a complete maniac runs production for us and just went in on went in today just wanted to make sure everything goes right so thanks for him where'd he go in he went into work to help produce this um neither of us are there and then with thanks uh thanks to everybody who voted on the polls thanks to everybody who sent a mailbag so when we come back on sunday will be after Cowboys Giants. It'll either be both of us happy because we have Cowboys bets.

2:18:38Bill Simmons:Yeah. Or Crestfall and Sal and me screaming at you why'd you let me bet on the Cowboys.

2:18:43Cousin Sal:Come on, don't screw me. Give me one week of pure joy. Thanks, DevFlix. Cousin Sal, good job by you. Good job by you, buddy.

2:18:52Bill Simmons:I don't want to see them on the way you saw that I was said I don't have I feel it's with them On the wayside I'm a person I never Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York for Louisiana. Call 877-770-7867.

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2:20:35Cousin Sal:Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com.

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