Last Call for Giannis Trades, Plus an NFL Round 3 Deep Dive With Chris Ryan, Joe House, and Peter Schrager

25:51Atlanta would have to decide the Richer Shea pick and the chance to move into the top three with that New Orleans or Milwaukee pick. You're just cashing in with Bam right now. And I don't know if they would do that. I don't, not, maybe Richer Shea's just not in the trade. Maybe it's just that pick only and they get Bam. But the Celtics fan side of me is looking at it going, fuck, if Miami could somehow just turn Bam and expirings and picks into Giannis and Portis, who would be the most heat guy since Haslam, like that would, I'd be a little nervous about that. Basically, like they could not get a single injury to their starting five.

26:27No. But they would be terrifying in a playoff series. Next one. All right, so we marked that one down. We like that one the most. Next one is just a straight one with the Lakers. It's just Luka and Kleba's expiring for Giannis. What? What'd you just say? I didn't put that one on my list with you guys. I wanted the reaction. It's just the Lakers saying, fuck it, and turning Luka into Giannis, paying Reeves, keeping LeBron. Bill, is Rich Paul in the room with you? No, I'm just, I want to talk it out. The part that makes no sense is Luka going to Milwaukee. But if you're Milwaukee, you do this now and you have two weeks to trade Luka.

27:07It's a Luka auction. Remember when all the teams were mad last year? Oh, man. Remember last year when like Utah, they were like, we have 17 picks. We would have traded all of them for Luka if we knew it was available. It's like, all right, Milwaukee has now acquired Luka. Here's the auction. Let's go. You guys got two weeks to make us your bet. And then they basically just shop. So is the idea here that Giannis would fix the Lakers' defensive problems and then it's Reeves and LeBron and that's the team? Yeah. Boy. It's not bad. It's a terrible trade. It's not going to happen. It's not bad. No, it's not going to happen.

27:46It would be one of those, I do feel like out of all the things on this list. Were you moving towards realistic? Why did you drop that one into here now? You thought I should have started with that one? Yeah, maybe. It's by far the least realistic. Is it? The idea of trading Luca again. Yeah. Why? For what? Under what circumstances? Got Reeves? I don't know. I'm just throwing it in there. I'm just starting shit. Haven't you done enough? Yeah. We'll take a break and then we'll keep going. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. We are in the second to last weekend. Three games left.

28:28Two this weekend. A trip to Super Bowl LX60 on the line. Fando's turning on playoff mode. Right now, all customers get a profit boost pack during the conference championship round, aka round three. That means you'll find a pack loaded with multiple profit boosts waiting for you in the app. More boosts means more ways to level up your playoff bets. We are going to be covering all of them when we make Ringer 107 picks a little bit later in this podcast with Peter Schrager and Joe House. So get ready for that. Visit Fandle.com slash NFL. Grab your profit boost pack for the NFC and AFC championships.

29:05You must be 21 plus president select states or 18 plus in president DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt-in required bonus issued as non-drawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, coming back with some Giannis trades. Here's another one on the list that I did not send you. It involves the Philadelphia 76ers. And here's the trade.

29:40It's Giannis and the Gary Harris tiny contract. Always loved Gary Harris. For Paul George, the 2029 Clips Phillies swap pick that Milwaukee has in Vijay Edgecombe? No. No! No. Flat out no for the Sixers. It's a no. I want to move on. I want to live in the world where Vijay and Maxey are the backcourt, and I don't want to watch Embiid and Giannis occupy the same areas of the floor. So Ciara's telling us that VJ Edgecombe has a higher trade value... No, I'm just saying that there's like... Than Giannis Antetokounmpo. I'm just trying to get this straight. There's a five to 10 year future of this team that doesn't exist the way you just set it up.

30:31And I want to cheer for like a fun young backcourt. It's been a while since I got to do that. So if you're just asking me as a fan, I'm cool standing Pat. You know what I mean? Like this is a fun team to watch on a night to night basis. A little bit maddening, generational divide sometimes on the court. but I don't think so. This goes right to the heart of what I was trying to articulate, maybe not so artfully, a short bit ago in terms of how do you properly assess Giannis' trade value. It doesn't make any sense for him to go to Philly. Would Giannis and Embiid, would you say they were the favorites in the Eastern Conference?

31:08You know what's... I wouldn't. The reason to do this, as a long time... Daryl's been in my life for 20 years now. Daryl has always been one of those. If I have three of the best guys and I can win the title, I'm going to move the math my way. And this trade would end up giving them Giannis and Maxi and the same team with the Embiid wildcard. And you could say, wow, if we can get Embiid somewhat healthy in April, May, June, and I also have Giannis and Maxi who are two all-star starters in a pre-de-conference, I can make the finals. That would be the conversation you would have. I don't think they would do it either.

31:48How old is Giannis? Yeah. Yes. I've sucked CRN. Giannis is 31. He was in the 2013 draft. You know, you're like, you, you take the phone call, you go have the coffee. It's like, let's get the coffee. Let's walk around the block a couple of times. But I don't. See, this is like Zodiac where I'm Jake Gyllenhaal and you're Ruffalo. And I'm like, Arthur Lee Allen, live 50 yards away. I don't know. It's not him. Handwriting sample said no. I know. I think you're right. I think they probably would not do this because they'd be afraid of how mad the fan base would be because the fan base has already decided this is great.

32:29Maxie and BJ sign us up. We're good. House is laughing. He loves this. Well, I do think it makes sense. It's bananas for the Sixers to just sit tight. They should move off of Paul George by any means necessary. but yeah but that's he's two years left after this one so you you could say you're getting off paul george you're using the edge come think to do that god you have no idea how fun it is to watch him play like it's he's such a fun player no so if i do trade value again forget about like all the reasons for it i do think vj edge come might have a higher trade value than yannis as crazy as that sounds on a rookie deal 40 games into the season and it's like we can't trade him he might be fucking Dwayne Wade like for real this might be mid 2000s Dwayne Wade again we're not trading him I love him man I don't know how contagious that is for everybody else in the national scheme of things watching him but it would be really tough to watch him go away and also like so what's Giannis' current deal how many years has he had Like two years left, so you'd have to worry about that.

33:39Okay, so do we, but do you wind up going right back into, will Giannis stay or will he go? Yeah. And is Giannis happy? And is Giannis like Nick Nurse? And does Giannis like playing with Joel Embiid? And does Giannis like the apartment that he got in Philly? Like, or whatever. You know what I mean? Like, I don't, I just, I'm just really, really enjoying the page turning that's happening for the Sixers. CR was like Andrew McCarthy in St. Elmo's Fire. He's like, I love her, man. I just love Maxie, man. rolling his eyes. All right, we're moving on to the next one. I did not come up with this idea.

34:10It did come from a mailbag emailer named Will.

34:17Jason Tatum for Giannis, straight up. I'm glad that you're doing some self-reflection here. He wrote, I don't want to do this, but this Celtics team is the Giannis team that he's always needed. JB is the exact teammate that Giannis needs. This team and what they have going this season is team Giannis needs. I don't want to do it. Tatum is going to be awesome. But would you have to have a meeting about it? I wouldn't do it. Would you have the meeting? I would. I just, I think karma wise, no. I love Tatum. I think he has a chance to have a Curry type of career. It is amazing how logical a basketball trade it is.

34:52Because for Milwaukee, it's an official tank, right? They'll tell Tatum, come back in October. And then Boston just turns Tatum into Giannis, basically. So basketball wise makes sense. But I don't think Boston would ever do that. Would Danny Ainge do it? Danny Ainge would have done it already.

35:10He already... Tatum would have already been... He would have done it while Jason Tatum was on the ground. He would have done it as Tatum was working out on Monday. It would have been done. I don't think anyone else that is affiliated with this team would do it, though. But it is a really interesting basketball trade. All right. So there's three teams plus this next one. And this is the last semi-unrealistic one, even though you guys like my Miami trade. But there's a Golden State scenario where it could be Giannis and Kuzma. Kuzma is the Giannis tax. Milwaukee gets Butler's contract, which she's not playing this year and maybe comes back trade deadline next year.

35:47You could either trade him, whatever. Kaminga, Podzemski, and then just all of the picks and swaps you can possibly get from Golden State. And you just go overbroke. Yeah, I'll take all of them. Give me the next seven years of stuff you have. and in whatever order you want to do, I'll take everything you have. And you're basically betting on shorting the Warriors. And if you're the Warriors, you're like, we have this generational Curry thing going on that we still might have three, four years left. We're adding Giannis. We can build around this. Who cares about the picks? It's mildly interesting.

36:19It becomes more interesting now that Butler's hurt because it helps Milwaukee this year. But what'd you think of this house? I need to know more about what the picks are. do they have their own first round picks for the foreseeable future at Golden State? Yeah, they have a... I have it here. I have a whole document. They have their... Basically all their own first round picks and then they have this weird 2030 situation with Washington where... Not weird. Washington got that for Jordan Poole. Yeah. Oh, yeah. But it's like they still... They still keep it under a lot of different scenarios, right?

36:57All right. So... that's sad. I don't think this trade will happen. I think Golden State would be nuts to mortgage their entire future for a Curry-Yanis and nothing else. Well, I mean, it's like, it's almost like it's too late. You know, like they could have mortgaged their future a year or two ago. Well, they did. Kind of. Yeah. That was the Jimmy Butler acquisition. Yeah. All right, we'll move on. Just towards ACL, that's all. Three teams left. Here's the big three. We got to talk about the Rockets. I did every machination. The one I sent you guys was just Giannis, Ben Bleach in it, Shengun, a 27 Phoenix first, and an unprotected 20, 31 Houston first.

37:35Maybe one more pick needs to be in, I don't know. But you're basically turning Giannis into Shengun, $20 million last year and a couple picks. And it seems like a pretty fair trade. I think that if I was Milwaukee, this would probably be the most excited I would be. You're getting a young center who's on a really good contract. Who might even be, I mean, at least analytically or statistically, would probably even pop more in a world where there wasn't so much sharing going on. Right. Even though he's a great passer, but yeah, I think this would get me the most piped up. House, would you rather pursue him or Amon Thompson if you had a choice?

38:13Ooh, that's a great choice. Which player do you like more as a building block for the next 10 years? I might be higher than is rational on Sengun. I think Amon Thompson is going to be incredible. He already is incredible. But the... I feel like it's just the direction the league is in right now. Having somebody around the rim who's as effective as he is, that's an asset. That's an outsized asset in this day and age of my life. I have no doubt that Amen's going to become what we all think he's going to become, but it's just like, I feel like you can build around Singun and you can run a system based on him and Amin seems more complimentary.

39:01Both of those Thompson kids, the Celtic came on Monday night, they weren't even guarding the Detroit Thompson at the end of the game. They were just like, do whatever you want, man. So he was kind of roaming around like a free safety on offense. But I gotta say, I wouldn't do this about Houston. It's weird because the Durant timeline kind of confuses them. it feels like then they should have urgency because the AGs have, but that wouldn't make me want to, I still feel like Sengun and Thompson. I care about that with Jabari and with Reed. And I feel like that's my team. And that's my team for the next seven years.

39:39And KD can help us with the ceiling of it. But I'm not making trades because I have KD, I think is where I've landed. And I wouldn't do it. I would keep Sengun, especially 20 million less. So it sounds like we all agree. This next one's more interesting. So I sent you Giannis, the Kuzma tax, and a small contract coffee for Vassell, Olenek's expiring, Barnes's expiring, and Dylan Harper. Under the old adage, if you're going to get something, you got to give up something. So it's like, you want Giannis? Give us Dylan Harper. Like, pony up. I don't think the Spurs would do this. I don't either. it's a realistic basketball trade though it's a really good realistic basketball it's a really it's exactly the kind of trade if the bucks are going to trade yannis and they're like what'd you get back we got a guy who can be an all nba guard in four years have you seen him i mean if anything he's fallen off a little for san antonio because they're too good like they yeah he actually is a little bit a little up and down but house your thoughts yeah so i'm looking at it and i'm like, well, where are the picks?

40:50Because if I'm Milwaukee, I want some picks. But the answer is, well, the pick is, we have a pick. You have a pick. It's Dylan Harper. We're sending you a franchise, potential franchise guy. And guess what? You don't have to go into a draft and take a swing. This guy can play. We've seen him. He can play in the NBA. He can be impactful. He's probably ready to be more than what he is now, even at this early age. This is kind of similar to the Philadelphia conversation, but if you're San Antonio, aren't you thinking these guys are on Wemby's timeline we like our team we've worked really hard to get this we got really lucky with Castle and Harper yeah we have Fox like we're very excited about this guard rotation like why disrupt it that's how I would that's where I would land if I was San Antonio I would not do this trade I wonder if people are listening and they're like you're insane if you have a chance to get Giannis you do anything you can I guess the question is, if I'm trading for Giannis, I need to feel like I'm actually going to win the title.

41:52Like when the Celtics traded for KG and what they gave up ended up not being maybe as potent as it seemed in the deal. But it was like, we're getting this and we now are the favorites in the East with this trade and have a chance. I don't know if Santona did this, if I would feel like they were the favorites in the West. I would still think it's OKC. How would they play together? That's part of the thing. Wemby and Giannis together, I'm not even positive I like it. I think they should trade for Trey Murphy and actually overpay for him. That would be... I talked about that on Tuesday. All right, so we're crossing them off.

42:27Well, this last thing, this is the deal that made the most sense to me by far. It made the most sense six weeks ago. It makes the most sense now. It's especially now that CJ McCollum's an expiring contract and you can put him and Porzingis together, two expiring, 60 million. Reese's Shea, that New Orleans or Milwaukee pick. They also have the worst version of the Bucs or New Orleans pick in 27. Give that back. Maybe even give them another one and just give Atlanta Giannis. And now if I'm Atlanta,

42:58I have Giannis, I have Jalen Johnson, Daniels, and I can patch together everything else. And I'm relevant in a way that I just, even though they've had good teams, they had a 60-win team once. It's different. This would be the biggest star they've ever had on the Hawks since Bob Pettit. And I love Dominique Wilkins, but it's just a fact. Giannis would be the biggest star they've had. Bob Pettit. Everybody. What it's worth. I wonder if that, if Giannis, I mean, I don't know how much Giannis obviously hasn't officially requested a trade. I don't know how much influence he's going to have over a prospective destination.

43:33But I wonder if he wants to stay in the Eastern Conference just to stay out of the bloodbath in the West. So you stay in the East. It's an, it's a soft East. This is why I was excited about this for Detroit even. Yeah. It's like, you just have an easier path to the finals this way. I think. House. Yeah, I agree with that. The thing I wonder about to the point, you know, the observation around what the, what would Giannis want? Don't, doesn't he want to go to a team that he feels like he can take over the hump? that's the problem with this trade. If I'm Giannis, I'm like, well, the Hawks have three more wins than the team I'm on now.

44:18Right. Yeah. That would be the issue. That's why that Miami trade is kind of fun because it's basically the same trade except you're just putting him in the bam spot with Portis. And now I have the Spolster as my coach and I have a bunch of shooters and maybe I have more of a chance. Yeah, my body fat content is already heat level. You know, I don't have to worry about that. The thing I don't know yet, because nobody knows, is how loyal they would be to a Giannis trade request where he's like, I've decided I'd like to be traded and I'd like to go to Houston. Or wherever he says, where he's just like, I want to go to that team.

44:55What is the responsibility to them make a deal with that team when you basically don't have the leverage? We saw this allegedly with Durant, with Phoenix and Brooklyn, when they basically just figured out that whole trade and didn't involve other teams. We've seen teams do this. But that's a pretty tough spot to be in if you're the Bucs. Especially because I don't get the... Trade me in but one spot. Like, House, do you get the impression that once Giannis disappears, if Giannis is off the Bucs, I don't feel like there's a lot of guys working at the Bucs who are going to be there next year. Right?

45:28So they're not incentivized to be like, oh, yeah, and then we'll work on this five-year rebuild. They're probably like, there goes my job with this. So I think that changes things a little bit. Well, you would have to have so much confidence around the picks that come back with that. And the problem with Houston is we all think Houston's going to be good for at least the next three years. Probably longer. I like Houston. At least the next three. I do too. I think when they have, well now Adams is hurt. But when they had their two centers with everybody else, I'm like, this team, I would not want to see this team in a series ever.

46:08as soon as one of those guys is missing it feels different but I thought the size that they have is really unlike anything anyone else has alright well I don't even know where we landed no crazy wild card team I looked I tried to me it was the Lakers and you guys laughed me out of the room trying to start shit why did you say Luca I'm sorry I'm giving a clutch My butt cheeks together. I listed 10 teams. Yeah. He's a top seven guy for a top seven guy. That would be... By the way, if they traded Giannis for Luka, I think that would be the biggest pound-for-pound NBA trade ever. I was trying to think from an actual...

46:54The talent of the two guys and the stature. Because remember when the kid Marbury trade was just a straight up? And we were like, wow, what a cool trade. like a slightly younger, awesome point guard for Innis Prime point guard. These never happen. Trades like the one-for-ones never happen like that. Why again wouldn't Tatum for Giannis make sense? Tell me again why. It would make sense. I just don't think Boston would trade Tatum. Why? I just don't. Because he's going to be back by Valentine's Day. Everyone in Boston loves Tatum. He's coming off of a torn Achilles. Why wouldn't Boston trade Jason Tatum?

47:31He delivered them a freaking title. He made them relevant, competitive for the entirety of the career. They were on an accelerated timeline because of him. They made the Eastern Conference Finals a bunch of years. Gladly. Gladly. I would have. But I'm not in the business of trying to take money out of good, hardworking people from Bethesda and Northern Virginia. Just come on down here and watch this team flame out in the first round of the playoffs every year. That's not my business. It's none of my business. Would you trade Jaden Daniels? No. I would not. Yeah. Tatum's pretty beloved. I don't see it.

48:12We'll see. I think out of the actual wild cards, I would say Philly is the wild card. Not just because CR's here. Just because I think Daryl's like Danny. I don't think he gives a shit. When you talk about the I don't give a shit GMs, Danny and Utah, he's not in this discussion because they're never getting him. I don't think Palenka cares. I think he'll do... he'll slice somebody's hamstrings if he has to, if it's going to make team 10 % better. I don't think Boston's wired like that right now. And then I, and maybe, maybe Riley used to be wired like that, I guess. Well, the Riley thing would be the last great work, right?

48:48That would be like, I'll finally paint my masterpiece after like six years of being in hot and heavy rumors for any given available star and missing out on Dame and Durant and everybody. I mean, where does Giannis's brothers want to go? Miami's got to be up there. I forgot to put them in the trades. Miami's got to be up there. Somehow I think they'll make their way to wherever he is. By the way, I was reading that Lakers story that Baxter did. And Baxter was on Zach's pod today, for people listening to this one, about all the bus family drama. And I was thinking, if it got really contentious, wouldn't the fuck you move have been to just trade Bronny?

49:26Like, if we were like, we're really starting, we're really, we're tired of this guy. We're really in FU mode with LeBron. Like you just like trade him to Sacramento for, with a second round pick, just like a dump, just to like, just to basically do this. It would have been an amazing trade. I don't think it's that bad. I don't, I don't think it's great, but I don't think it's acrimonious like that. I don't think genies like that. Unless it's your family member. That felt like settling some old family business stuff more than it was about LeBron. Pretty fascinating. I got an email from somebody that asked me what family was more fucked up, the Buss family or the Roy's.

50:03it's close. It's close. It really does feel like the Buss family matched that last season of the Roy kids just ready to fuck each other over for the throne no matter what it took. Right? That element wasn't there. I had no idea how many brothers were employed by the Lakers in different jobs and were pulling... And then there was another one that was like the... I didn't even know about Sean Buss. That was the mother's kid. I didn't even understand that one. Yeah. It's really something. This worked out great for the Lakers. They have the Dodgers owner who spends a kajillion dollars and doesn't seem to care about money.

50:44I would say it was probably a win for them. We'll see how it goes. CR, who's your football picks this weekend? Seahawks and Patriots. All right. Well, we're going to send you packing. I'll see you tomorrow for our three-hour Zodiac session. I'm just going to start drinking hot water and lemon right now. House. House is staying. And we're going to do some football right after this. So playoff mode is turned on and Fandle has it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, offers to boost your winnings every game day. I'm going to stay away from the Patriots. Here's a same game parlay I like on the other side in the Seahawks Rams.

51:22Seahawks money line. Rashid Shahid, five plus yards rushing. So five yard run, he's got it. Cooper Cup 30 plus yards. That is plus 420 on FanDuel. You can use your 30 % SGP profit boost token as well and get an even higher payout. Wow, look at that. Tail my bet, make your own bet on another game. The possibilities are endless during playoff mode with FanDuel. All right, Peter Schrager is here. You can see him on ESPN. Sometimes on shows with three or four people, sometimes on shows with six, like I saw today. It was a six-person studio show. I always admire ESPN's pursuance. Persistence? What's the right word?

52:08Pursuance? Pursuance works, man. Is pursuance a word? I don't even know. Insistence? Yeah. Before you popped on, you asked us, what was the first conference championship game you remember watching? House has no long-term memory, so it's a tougher question for him. It's not. What is it, House? You and I have that brain where I remember exactly where I was, when I was watching it, who I was with, and I just posed it because you guys are sports junkies. I want to hear your answers. Well, I thought I had that brain until I forgot the Seahawks won the Super Bowl on Sunday's pod. That's on Sal. Come on.

52:44That was this week. Terrible. Amazing. Outrageous. I genuinely think the first one I remember watching was the Drew Pearson game. Was that conference championship? The Hail Mary? Yeah. Wasn't that a conference championship game? Yeah. Was it 77? No, that was like 75. I remember watching that game though. Okay. And then probably somewhere in the 75, 76 range. Because you used to have a column and I used to love it. And this was probably 15, 20 years ago, where one time you just wrote out every Super Bowl, the winner, the loser, and the MVP. But what I remember to the game? Yeah. This guy shares my brain.

53:24Mine is 1990, Candlestick Park, Leonard Marshall, sacking Joe Montana, Gary Reasons on the fake punt, and then Lawrence Taylor recovering to Roger Craig, and then Matt Barth hits the field goal. I know exactly where I was in my living room as a kid with my father and my brother, and I was eight years old. But that's the earliest conference championship game memory I have. House, what about you? Oh, so I don't... That was before the conference championship, my pick. that was the round before. So what was it, just a playoff game? Yeah, I don't remember the 75 ones. I do remember Vikings-Rams in 76.

54:01That was 76. Because I loved Sammy White as a kid. He was the only non-patriot I liked. Remember Sammy White House? Of course. I love Sammy White. So I remember watching that game. So what was yours, House? The 1982-83 Washington Redskins, because that was at an age where... Oh, I shouldn't say this out loud. I could be a lusty fan. I was going to make, I had something. I was going to talk about it, like the stage of my own development, my, you know, as the pre-president and all of that. I was, I, it was Washington against Dallas in the conference championship, 1982, for the chance to go to the, to the Superbowl.

54:44And I was with, you know, my, my, my cohort and we were all going crazy for it. You're watching just Mark Mosley bang field goals and you're banging it. Okay. Okay. Okay. This is something I've been Dallas's ass. That's the key. This is something I've been thinking about it a lot the last couple of weeks. Cause I started following that Kevin Gallagher guy who just posted football, but I had never been following him until December and he was posting these games. And I was realizing that, first of all, I've been watching football now since, you know, 74, 75 range. Right. And all these huge games.

55:19and I cared about all of them and I watched them and I thought about them and then when I was writing a column, I was writing extensively about them, podcasting about them. But there's almost been too many. So I started this document two weeks ago and I was just writing down all the games. Oh, I love this. Just with the scores to refresh my memory and I wrote down all the conference championship games. What I realized, you think about it, there's two games a year. And House and I, we go back to 1974, 75 range. That's over 50 conference title games in each conference. So now that's just 100 games out of those, 100 plus.

55:58That are in your brain. Plus like 52 to 54 Super Bowls. So these are 160 of the most important games that I watched that I kind of have to jog my memory to remember what happened. It's not like Base Basketball House. basketball I can still remember all this I can tell you about Steelers, Colts and you know Harbaugh playing Pittsburgh in 95 like I remember all of these games and I think NBA I would be a little shakier but like I go backwards with NBA with NFL I'm always like moving forward like today that somebody was talking about the on Twitter was talking about Marino's last chance in 95 the Chargers game yeah and Stoyanovich Mr.

56:43Hanovic missed the 48-yarder. I was like, I think I bet on this game, and I think I covered, and I just went on YouTube, and I watched the last five minutes of it, and it was fucking awesome. It's an amazing game. The Chargers went down. They scored with like 30 seconds left. Then Marino got a pass interference, and I was like, this is great. I was like, it's almost like we have football amnesia. I didn't remember any of the details. I was like, I might just spend the off-season just watching one football game a day until the playoffs. You know what I'll do? And I think you'll appreciate this.

57:14There's like one that's called like Giants VHS tapes at the Twitter feed. They'll show the intros to the games. Love those. So it's like, you know, Summerall and Madden, 92, you know, it's Cowboys versus Niners. You know, it's just like you get chills. And you're there. Then you get the ads. The ads are great. I really, House, I really missed Dick Ember. That was one of the things, like watching a couple of days. a lot, right? Yeah, and there was a Merlin for a while, and I just thought he was like lights out. I really like Charlie Jones was great, but yeah, so you think, and one of the recurring themes when you see these old games is how important weather was.

57:55It's just this fucking crazy variable that football has where the Chargers don't win one year because they go to Cincinnati and it's like freezing rain in Cincinnati outdoors. It's a week after Kellen Winslow game, They go to Cincinnati and it's ice cold and it's the coldest game ever played. Ice storm, basically. But yeah, the weather. And last week, I felt like, I thought the Bears outplayed the Rams. But I don't know how much of it was weather related that made the Rams look that way. I don't know. What do you take from that game? So, but anyway, it's going to be my offseason project house.

58:28I love it. I'm diving through. I'm jogging my memory because I like was writing columns about these games. I barely remember half of them. Do you ever go back and watch or think about any of the Bills AFC Championship games in the early 90s? Wow. They would kick the shit out of these teams. I think they beat the Raiders 53-3. Yeah. Huge blowouts four years in a row. And then obviously we know what happened in the Super Bowl. But Conference Championship Week, to me, has a real special place. And even this week, they were interviewing McVay and McDonald and Payton and Variable. and there's like an NAFC, NFC Championship logo in like the background of, and like that, even that, I get like tingles.

59:09Like I, it's very, I don't know. It's very historic and very reminiscent and nostalgic to like these classic weekends as a kid. I love it all. Yeah. I think my favorite non-Patriots one was, oh, maybe that wasn't the conference. What was the one where Emmett had the separated shoulder and was just That was a regular season game. What was the one against the Giants? Yeah, against the Giants. But then in the playoffs, but he wasn't right. And then in the playoffs, and just kind of threw the Cowboys on his back anyway. I just love that whole Emmett run. It was really enjoyable. The Niners, when the Montana got knocked out, was an amazing game too.

59:44There were so many good runs. We're going to talk about two games. Which one do you want to start with? Or do you want to do off-season stuff first? No, you choose whatever. Before we do the games, give us your number one coaching subplot this week with all the roulette that went around. Coaching subplot that's interesting to me. So McDaniel picking the Chargers job, so he couldn't get a head coaching job? What happened? He could have been in the running in Cleveland, and he said, I'm going to pull my name. Jim Harbaugh said, we'd love to have you. Basically, he knew he wasn't getting the Baltimore job, so he told them he's in.

1:00:21His wife is from Southern California, and he and Harbaugh hit it off. Now, can you imagine the conversations that the two of those guys are going to have. Two of the most enigmatic personalities in the league, Harbaugh and McDaniel, but they're going together. And then he withdrew his name from the Cleveland interview process, which so did Jesse Minter. But we knew that the reason Minter was withdrawing his name from Cleveland is because he was getting the Baltimore head coaching job today. So I don't blame McDaniel for that because he just lived in a world where he didn't trust his quarterback.

1:00:54And now you go to Cleveland and you're in this same situation with worse weather. Why would I do that? You go to the Chargers. You resuscitate Herbert, maybe even try to get him to win a playoff game before his career ends. And then you're the hot candidate a year from now if it goes well. I think it's smart. You like it, House? The Buffalo. Buffalo is the one that we could really dive into. Well, let's do it. Well, I saw you on TV doing your whole Davis Webb, 30 years old. Can you hire your best friend as the coach? What do you think? I don't know. I don't know if I'd hire a house as my head NFL coach if I was the quarterback.

1:01:31What happens if we disagree on something?

1:01:36So McDermott gets fired. We have the fiery press conference. Everyone is crying for Keon Coleman for a full day. And then the next day, it's like, all right, they have to hire a coach. So today, they interviewed Luanna Rumo and Dable. We're doing this on Thursday. They have Udinski, who's the 30-year-old kid from Jacksonville, interviewing Sunday. Anthony Weaver is interviewing this weekend. And there will be a couple others. The wild card is Davis Webb, who, 30 years old, was Josh Allen's backup for three years. Also, his best friend was, I believe, a groomsman in the wedding. And his final year with the Bills as a backup quarterback was running the quarterback room.

1:02:18Went to the Giants for a year with Dable. and then Sean Payton, the second he met him, was like, you are going to be a coach. You're retiring today. You're going to be a coach. He's been on Payton's hip for the last three years. All this happens. Josh Allen, I'm told, is going to have a voice in the head coaching process. And that led to this conversation, which I guess we could open it up. Do you let the quarterback have a say, first of all, and then B, this is such player empowerment era that we see in the NBA. But if he really was to push hard and be like, I want Davis Webb as the coach. Are we okay with that, considering their relationship off the field as blood brothers, whatever it is?

1:02:58What do you think, S? Fuck no. I mean, what are you talking about? It is insane. The quarterback is going to say who the coach... What? No. No, no, no. But he might prefer that. The answer... Well, I mean, I'm not going to sort of, you know, take too much time on, on web web yet could be, uh, a, a good, uh, answer. It's not the answer to me. Right. That's really pushing it. And the, and the, and his best attribute is he was under the tutelage of, of, uh, Peyton. That's a good attribute. What's the, what's the experience in terms of like being leader of men? Like we just went through this. We have a lot of failures, more failures than not.

1:03:50Dable's the right answer. Bring Webb in as a, you know, whatever. The quarterback's coach or whatever. Let him be there in waiting.

1:04:00As you guys were talking, I looked up the Emmett years. It was the 92 one, but it was the year, I think it was the year before he hurt his shoulder. But that, so 92. They beat the Lion? It was Dallas winning in San Francisco in Candlestick, January 93. And Emmitt was 24 for 114. Seven catches for 59, which is fucking awesome. I love Emmitt Smith. So good. Who'd they beat in the wild card that year? They beat... Eagles? Yeah, Eagles. And then they killed the Bills. But the Niners, it felt like such a big game. Oh, my God. Like those Niners Cowboys. And then when the Redskins were in there for a couple of years, like Giants were in there.

1:04:45It just was like those four teams all together. It was great. I want to get back to that. So if it's not if it's not 30 year old Davis Webb, who is it then? Could it be 30 year old Udinski? You wouldn't want that either, Joe? Joe House? No, Joe House would not want that. What happened? I'm 12 hours behind the cycle. Where's Flores? I know Flores signed an extension with Minnesota, but he has the possibility of if he gets a head coaching job at one of two places he can leave he interviewed in pittsburgh he interviewed in pittsburgh he hasn't interviewed in buffalo yet okay well both of those are good perfectly fine answers both of those would be great great answers to me you know who could give pittsburgh some some 14 to 12 type of games brian flores you interested in a 15 to 13 final yeah don't need a quarterback.

1:05:33I'll just have an awesome defense. That'd be fun. I, uh, I'm excited that Buffalo overreacted, even though I think it was probably the right reaction. The press conference was a disaster. It was the complete opposite of that Ravens press conference. It got people feeling bad for Keon Coleman, who by all accounts was a schmuck this season and had to be benched, even though they needed receivers. Like, Oh, it feel bad for Keon Coleman. Like how about just He's showing up for work every day and being reliable. I don't feel bad for him. But it just feels like a mess. It's so funny. It felt like they had the AFC East on lock for 15 years.

1:06:09It just flipped on him. Two things can be true, right? It's amazing. For the first eight years, that local fan base and that media was pretty harsh on McDermott. Then when he gets fired, but Bean doesn't, suddenly McDermott is this knight in shining armor. Look, could they have fired both of them? Sure. The other eye side of it is, should the GM be allowed to pick his coach one time? Usually in the NFL, the GM will get that opportunity. McDermott's defenses, playoff games, gave up 31 and a half points per game. That's tough when you're a defensive coach. Yeah, it's like, what is your number one thing you're bringing to the table?

1:06:47If you're a head coach, if it's like, eh, it's not really offense, it's obviously not really defense either because over and over again, we saw that team not get stops. And then it's like, well, is your game management awesome? and is your team good when it really matters? 13 seconds. Yeah, over and over again. That's been bad. So I don't know. I felt like... I actually thought what the owner said was the right answer, which is like, we took this as far as we could go. We needed a new voice. I was like, I actually agree with you. Yeah, and I think the NBA is a better comparison than the NFL. But like, Mark Jackson took the Warriors to a certain point.

1:07:19Steve Kerr got them over the top. Doug Collins got the Bulls to a certain point. Obviously, Phil Jackson over top. Thibodeau got the Knicks. They hope Mike Brown, like we see this in the NBA a lot. These teams that fire coaches, despite great playoff appearances, the NFL, we don't see it quite as much. Yeah. You kind of know when, especially now in this era where the coaches seem to have a shorter shelf life. I mean, I'm going to whisper this, but you could argue maybe that should have been Andy Reed's last year, last year. Oh, wait, why hasn't that been a topic? Like who was more disheveled and weird and seemingly rudderless than the Chiefs last year?

1:08:02And what did they really do to fix it, Shrags? They brought back Eric Biennemi. Oh, my goodness. Who from 2018 to 2022 was the offensive coordinator when they were humming. And the hope is if Andy isn't necessarily the, what's the term, the red ass that people wanted, And at times, Eric Viennemi is that guy. And the hope is that his voice coming back sparks something new. But Andy's going to be able to say when his time is up and he's going to be able to ride off into the sunset. I think he said it with his coaching job last year. We watched that happen with Belichick with the Pats when some of the game management stuff started slipping.

1:08:44It was pretty alarming. But they just didn't seem prepared to me. They weren't fixing issues they had. I don't know if the locker room was that great behind the scenes. I don't know. There was a lot going on there. It didn't seem like a happy team to me. There were a lot of voices on my network and others that were throwing Belichick's name in for Buffalo. And the premise being the roster's built already. They're one win away. Like, can Belichick give you one or two years to get this team over? Can you see it or no? What do you think, Cass? Of course. Can you see it? Yes. Yes. Yes. I can see it.

1:09:18I mean, you don't let him anywhere near the player personnel room. You don't even say, oh, that room has its own set of keys. We don't know. Nobody has it. As long as it's just come in and coach up that defense and get some, you know, the pressure's on me now. I didn't see that. That's really interesting. So that's just like talk show stuff. There's no actual smoke to that. No, there's none at all. and I know guys in Buffalo and I would tell you that that name has not come up but I saw it we did it on GetUp for like a throwaway segment and then I saw someone else talking about it and when you think about it just on paper like the roster's built we got the same guys we have playoff experience we just need to get over the hump like can is there someone who can just win us a game or two more and I don't know if anyone can win you a game better than Bill Belichick that's a good GetUp segment that's like the coffee hasn't hit in yet and then somebody's throwing that out like whoa it's like having like throwing a shot of espresso in there i so he would well it's a moot point because you said it's not happening but if he wasn't involved with any sort of picking the players well then the other question would be he he wasn't exactly awesome at hiring coordinators and coaches the last few years no the better question is as a patriots fan would Would you be more worried about him or would you be more worried about Davis Webb being hired?

1:10:49I'd be more worried about Belichick. That's telling. I would. House agrees? Of course House agrees. What are you talking about? See, now I'm going to get worried this might happen. I mean, it's fun. As a Pats fan, I hope to hire a 30-year-old coach. That would be the dream. How old was McVay? McVay was 30. He's the youngest ever. And then this, Udinski, is younger than him. McVay's a fucking unicorn. So if you're thinking about matching that one again, and good luck. McVay was hired after, and House, you remember this season, they lost to the Giants, Washington, in week 17 to a Giants team that already clinched.

1:11:25They lost 19 to 10. McVay was the play caller only one year. And I remember talking to him. He's like, I just pissed down my leg. I have no shot at being a head coach. Like, it's never going to happen now. And he got interviews with San Francisco and the Rams and he won the Rams job despite being on a team that didn't make the playoffs, being 30. and despite falling on his face in week 17. That is such a swing. I don't know if the Bills or the Browns are willing to take a swing on Udinski, who's 30, or Davis Webb, who's 30. I love being aggressive, but... Not when you have Josh in the prime of his career.

1:12:03House, what would be... You can't say Hugh Jackson or people like that. What would be the funniest coaching hire for the Bills? Is it Mike McCarthy? where it's like it's just you can talk yourself into it but I kind of could talk myself into Mike McCarthy but it is kind of funny where you're just going sideways from Sean McDermott to Mike McCarthy no Tony Dungy would be funnier to me it would be like grabbing somebody off of TV Jason Garrett would be the funniest Jason Garrett would be the funniest but he got an interview in Tennessee which was literally amazing he did not get a second interview one of my favorite stories so and then your guy your guy Nine Kids Solid got the Tennessee got the job Got the job.

1:12:42Nine kids. They're going to be moving from San Francisco to Nashville. His third place in three years. Pack the kids. Let's go. That's great. I mean, perfect place to live. Get a nice house like 20 minutes away from the city. You get like a nine-bedroom house. Live in that Brentwood, that Franklin. Yeah. Great job. All right. I wish I want somebody in his life to say, you know, the Jets to the Titans isn't like the line. Like you just went through chaos and chaos was it. And you saw how much it sabotaged you. Cause I actually think that Sal is Bobby's a, I think he's got a, there's a coach in there, a good coach in there somewhere.

1:13:19And what he did with that defense, like, Hey, that San Francisco defense, but going to the Titans with that brain trust. The key is the quarterback. And I think this pod and the three of us last week, were very positive on Cam Ward. And I got texts from people being like, whoa, you house and Simmons sure love Cam Ward. I'm like, he showed great flashes. And that's why that was an attractive job. There's also a new stadium coming next year. And there's a lot of salary cap space. And their new GM, Mike Borgonz, he's a smart dude, Boston guy, smart guy. That said, the offensive coordinator position is what matters because Salah doesn't call the offense.

1:13:55So you hire Salah and now we're two days later. Cliff hasn't committed anywhere yet. He might go to Baltimore or Nashville or maybe Vegas. and then who else are you talking to? You're thinking Dayball maybe if he doesn't get the job in Buffalo? Like, but that's going to be the most important hire there because Salah's got nothing to do with, you know, Cam Ward and third and six. What are we calling, you know? I thought it was interesting what happened to the Jets defense after he left where it became clear the Jets defense was overachieving when he was there and you could see it just do this right after.

1:14:25So Dayball to Buffalo is probably the most, that would be the second most nervous I'd be as a Pats fan. because he knows the city. He gets it. He's worked with Allen. He's from there too. He's been really good. I think you could argue that Giants thing, he just had bad luck left and right for years and years and years and maybe he learned some stuff. Who's the defensive coordinator though? I need to know the answer to that before I have an opinion. Luana Rumo. Maybe he's bouncing around. Could be. Last one, Vegas. That's not terrible. The Vegas one. As you know, I love that job. And Mendoza, I think, his stock's even higher than it was two weeks ago.

1:15:06And I think they have talent on the roster. Like, I don't mind the job. So who gets that one? I was there on Monday night at the college football playoffs and I'm on the sideline before the game just doing my usual walk around like a whatever, a nebbish. And I'm watching Brady, Mark Davis, John Spitek, Egon Durbin, the other owner, the four of them just staring at Mendoza. just watching every... Like they're at a bar at two in the morning checking out a chick. I thought he was going to say staring at Abuela Danger. Staring at Alex Earl. Just watching how everything he did. Yeah. That's what I do when I go to basketball games.

1:15:51I love watching the guys in the warm-ups. I like watching them during timeouts. You can learn so much from that stuff. And he played amazing. And he was awesome. And on fourth down, makes the play. That's everything you'd think Brady would ever want. Just give up your body and just dive and flip and do the helicopter, whatever it is. So I would think he's their quarterback. I would think not knowing anything. And I think I said this last week, like Brady's going to make that decision. And if Brady isn't a fan of Mendoza, that won't be the quarterback. So anything I say or Danny Kelly says or Field Yates or Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah says means nothing.

1:16:26It's whether Brady thinks he's the guy. But I think Brady was probably impressed by that. The coaching position is fascinating, though, because I had been hearing Minter as a popular choice for Vegas. And then Davis Webb's name keeps coming up there also. So you've got... Not Cliff? Defensive coach. Yep. Or Cliff hasn't interviewed there. They haven't given Cliff an interview.

1:16:51So Vegas, to me, who's going to be best with Mendoza? That's it, right? That's the answer to that. But if you take Mendoza, then you need a coach that is going to help that kid become the best version of himself. Do you have to hire? Is there a time limit to hiring a head coach? Has anybody ever dragged this along until March? Just been like, yeah, we still don't know. Well, the Colts were left at the altar when Josh McDaniels left and they hired. Who did they end up hiring that year instead? I'm going blank. Was it Chuck Pagano? Yeah. No. They fired Pagano. Between whoever's between Pagano and Shane Steichen.

1:17:29I'm so embarrassed right now. Frank Reich. That's who it was. Frank Reich. And then last year... House and I made... We made money on Franks last year. Frank was a go-to. And then last year, Kellen Moore wasn't officially hired until after the Eagles won the Super Bowl. They can't meet with any coaches in person and they can't interview them in any sort of way if the team is still alive in the playoffs. So if Shula or Shulhouse or Davis Webb or Vance Joseph or Clint Kubiak, you go down the list of all these guys. I don't think there's anyone in New England who's interviewing for head coaching jobs, but any of those coordinators win another week.

1:18:10Well, that only pushes it back even more. And I don't know if these teams are looking to wait. I was worried about our precociously young defensive coordinator who had to step up. I was worried. He's like 28. Zach Corr. because our defense has been really well coached and has gotten better week by week, month by month. It's noticeable. It's way different than it was. And I think he has to get credit for that. Yeah, well, Tara Williams fell ill early on in the season. And then this guy has been calling the plays, but is maybe the most underappreciated gem of this entire Patriots run. He was an inside linebackers coach.

1:18:47Him and Matt Collins, the two unappreciated gems of the 2025 Pets season. All right, we'll do the games. I just want to say beyond the record, I think Kubiak would be amazing in Vegas. I think Kubiak and Mendoza would be really, because what Kubiak did with taking what every single one of us, at least, I won't put you in our box, Schrager, forecasting how the Seahawks was going to do. The bit that we were most concerned about was that offensive line. And somehow that offensive line turned out to be absolutely perfectly. Sam Darnold was back there thriving. over these last six weeks, they established a run game, a two-headed monster.

1:19:24Kubiak has really just excelled, I think. I agree with that. And I looked at Vance Joseph's Broncos thing, because I remember not feeling great about him as a coach, but not feeling terrible. But then you look back at the teams that he had. He had no quarterback at all. It was like Osweiler. Yeah, it was a mess. Paxton Lynch. I think when you're, these guys that have failed, but they failed specifically because they had no quarterback whatsoever. That's, you know, that was how Atlanta jumped on Stefanski right away. Cause you could excuse the last couple of years. Now, whether it's valid or not, you find out when he's in the next spot.

1:20:03One team that's interesting is Arizona. There's very little reporting on it. The team does not announce when they interview coaches, which is so refreshing and fun. You know, these teams like put out the social media posts. I don't get that at all. I don't either. Let the reporters do the job. Go find out who reported. I will say this. Raheem Morris interviewed very well there. He's back. He could find his way back into the head coaching world. Can you just hire a game management assistant? They won their last four games after being eliminated. There's something to be said for that in Atlanta.

1:20:37I think he would be awesome as a defensive coordinator of the Bills. Dayball and Raheem Morris would be that. Now that would be something. I've made this point multiple times. I thought Atlanta was easily the best under-10 wins team in the league. If there was a play-in tournament of all the non-playoff teams, I think they would have been favored. And they were one of the best teams the Pats played. Oh, they should have won that game. We talked about that missed extra point, but I was there when they beat the Rams. I was there when they beat the Bucs. They win. I was there when they beat the Bills.

1:21:11Weren't they three kicks away from being 11-6, basically? I think that's what it was. It was like a missed PAT, the coup field goal, and one other one. All right. Which game do you want to hit first, House? You pick. Broncos or Seahawks-Rams? No, let's do Seahawks-Rams first because the Broncos and Pats is just so hard to put arms around, I feel like. The more straightforward one is just this rubber match. Seahawks minus two and a half. that's the line on FanDuel. Threatened to be three for a while. Settled there. Big question is what we're getting from Sam Darnold. So Schraggs is going to tell us right now.

1:21:51How healthy is Sam Darnold? Because I was worried about him last week. I ended up hedging some bets and felt stupid because he was fine. He threw a pass across his body in the back of the end zone to Jackson, Smith, and Jigbo that I'll put up against any pass that was thrown this entire NFL season as far as just beautiful precision. I would say his oblique is going to be fine. That's now eight days, nine days removed. I have, we went on the pod, you and I, Bill, House, you weren't with us. It was the one day you were out and I filled in and it was after Seattle Rams part two. And that game was unbelievable.

1:22:23I have gone back and watched the first two times these teams played. If you were to do a prize fight, which we love talking boxing, and you were to say each quarter counts as a round, Chris Shula's Rams defense was up 7-0 on Clint Kubiak's City Hawks offense. That included all those interceptions from Darnold. Seven interceptions, all that. But then the fourth quarter and overtime of that second game they started doing play action. They started doing trick plays. There was all sorts of... And Sam Darnold came alive. It's like 7-1 as far as the rounds go, but the rounds that mattered Seattle at the end there.

1:23:05It's like any issue of like, oh, the Rams defense has dominated Seattle. I throw it out the window because they cracked some sort of code there in the fourth quarter in overtime. I think they're going to be okay as far as an offense goes. They showed flashes there in that second game. So the two questions I have on that note, how impactful do you think the Charbonnet loss is? And are we a thousand percent confident that Charles Cross is 100 % ready to go, no issue whatsoever, not diminished. Don't know the latter. The former, I will say this, because I couldn't tell you the X's and O's of it. I was talking to Orlovsky today, who you see on ESPN all day, every day.

1:23:45He's just an Energizer bunny. But I was with him today and I said, tell me like Charbonnet, he says, the thing that no one will know is or that no one talks about too often. He's like, I watch all the tape. Kenneth Walker is not a great pass blocker. And that's why Charbonnet is in as much as he is. And in fantasy football, you want to bang your head into the wall if you're a Kenneth Walker owner. You're like, why is he ever out? So that might be what they're missing more than just the interior runs. I thought Charbonnet from an actual running standpoint was pretty grim. And he was, I think, a very frustrating Seahawk for the fans.

1:24:18But the pass protection stuff is worrisome. Gambling manifesto. But where have the looked a little too good the previous round team is just pulsating Seahawks. Like you can't have a better game than that. And it was actually a little too good of a game. There's some gambling stats about if you blow somebody out like that in a playoff round, what happens the next round? The beware of all dome or warm weather teams playing outdoors in cold weather. I don't think it's going to be cold, right? It'll be okay. Decent. It's not going to be like in the... Not going to be Chicago. Aging Q being cold weather, we don't have to worry about that.

1:24:56The only other one that really stood out to me, because even the coaches one is out. We have four really good coaches. Rule number 13, don't dismiss the nerd evidence if the nerd evidence is absolutely overwhelming. I just feel like the Rams special teams has to come back and haunt them in one of these games. It's their third road game, third road game in a row and a road game where you end up in the worst spot in the league for a road game, Seattle. It's the furthest anywhere. So in the Southeast, come back. Then they go to Chicago, come back. Now they're going to the Pacific Northwest, which from LA is in six hours.

1:25:36But I don't, the three road games in a row really worries me. And then the bigger thing, Schrags, I just didn't think the Rams looked that good the last couple of games. It was almost like that Ram, especially that Rams game, the Ram Seahawks week 16, as they lost steam in that game, they never got the steam back. thought Carolina could have beaten them. They weren't better, but they could have. And I just thought the Bears were better and should have won the game. I went back and I watched the fourth quarter in the OT. The Bears had it. They're in midfield. They fucking had the ball. They had momentum.

1:26:10They had everything. How about McVay not letting Stafford throw the ball in overtime, first drive, three runs in a row? It's weird. How about two minutes, eight seconds left, and they decide to run the ball, and call a timeout before the two-minute warning. Sean openly, I talked to him afterwards, he openly was mortified with the way he called that game. And he's like, the players bailed me out. Like, Meeves bailed me out. And Cam Curl, former Washington commander, bailed me out. Incredible. Don't think that was lost on me. How so are you for Forbes? How so? Are we sure the Rams defense is that good?

1:26:49No. Because the advanced metrics like it a lot more than my eye test has liked it. dating back to that week 16 game. It feels like teams are now just going up and down the field on them. Fucking Bryce Young was doing it. So we have all these, we have the advanced stats and it's like a four-month sample size. I feel like they're a team that's running out of steam a little bit. When you need it most, on a third down, McVay calls timeout. He talks to Stafford. They see the hot route. No, I'm talking about defense, not offense. I know. I'm saying when you need it most, though, their defense came up with the interception.

1:27:21Yeah. And then their offense... It's a terrible miscommunication play and a play that I'm not sure why you're trying to get to the 20-yard line when you need to get to the 38. And they weren't being stopped. And Caleb Williams, who's his legs, got two first downs. Use your legs, throw it to the tight end for five yards, do a design scramble. If I was a Bears fan, that game is the week's passed. House, let me throw this at you. The Rams, who have been an awesome offense, are they a little slow to you? Like a great defense like the Seahawks. And I think that at home, I think we can give them the great tag.

1:28:01Not like 2000 Ravens great, but really, really up there. And I don't think they really have any... The way they defend the run gets great. They don't have any weaknesses. And the Rams, the way they do it, it's methodical. You go down the field and, you know, and then hope Puka can break a play. They don't really... They're not getting the long plays like they used to. And I don't really know who their speed guy is. Well, it's 2-2 Atwill and he didn't dress last game. Right. And then Puka, like you look at the game, he was like five for 50 last week. Their biggest play that anyone made was Parkinson on a little tight end route.

1:28:33And I just wonder, are the Seahawks going to move everybody up and basically dare the Rams to go over the top and attack and hit Puka and just kind of keep everybody in front of them and just make it a game where it's going to have to be 12 play drives to go down the field on them? so I thought where you were going with this when you started and I actually quite like it as I'm thinking about it is are we waiting on the Rams to go up tempo? like this methodical bit that you're talking about I don't think you can do that in Seattle but they did it in overtime that's what they did in overtime and it worked tough for three hours and tough for that crowd tough in that cold let me throw another thing at you Stafford does look 100 % healthy to me at this point and I think had a couple really hard games there Adams, we know, isn't 100%.

1:29:19And Puka has taken more hits this year than anyone else in the league and now has to go against the Seattle defense. And Forbes went down with the hamstring. He'll play, but that's real. I think that there's a lot of miles that have added up on this Rams team that makes me really nervous about them on the road. I think the line should be three. What do you think the line should be, House? Yeah, I'm listening. I'm listening. I'll give you another little Schrager side note, fact, anecdote type deal. Schrager side notes. That's good. That's it. Not notes. Not for Pete's sake. Not for Pete's sake.

1:29:51Not this one. Very difficult conversations they had internally after the season. And they were like, it's time to move on from Cooper Cup, who is a beloved Ram. Triple crown winner. Super Bowl MVP. And they basically told Cooper, like, we're not going to pay you what you were making. And you're free to go explore. He was a free agent for quite a bit. A couple days. There were no real takers. the Seahawks paid him a lot of money and they're like, well, we got a spot for you. Meanwhile, the Rams used all that money and paid Devontae Adams. It looked great for the Rams all season long. Cooper Cupp's a competitor.

1:30:31Keep that in mind. Ernest Jones, Super Bowl hero from the Rams. They said, this isn't working here. They moved on from him. He had a nice little couple years, whatever, in Tennessee. Then he's become like the Seahawks best linebacker and he is a vocal player and he is a super spirited guy. I love revenge stuff. I love all that. You know, I do. Cooper Cup, Ernest Jones, just put those two out there. Ernest Jones cost me so much money because when the Rams moved away from him, I was like, oh, so the Rams are tanking. The Rams are getting ready for whoever the next quarterback is going to be. I can't remember what the quarterback class was.

1:31:09They rope-a-doped the shit out of him. I lost because that defense was a no-name defense. They had two incredible draft picks. Then they immediately fortified the front again. Kobe Turner and Byron Young. Yeah, and Vers has been incredible. Like, God, it's okay. I mean, the money's gone. I lost it fair and square. But that's part of why I have to give McVay credit. They retooled. They did not rebuild in any way, shape, or form. They pulled a defense together like that. I think, you know, the argument for the Rams is that they're not going to be scared of going to Seattle. They've won there for years.

1:31:47Third game is always scary. They've won playoff games there. And it's just, he's a fucking unbelievable coach. And he's had a bad game last week and they survived. He's not going to have a bad game two weeks in a row. Case for Seattle, other than what we've already talked about. They've only lost once since week five. They've won eight straight. in the last few weeks they beat the Rams and they beat the Niners twice now the Rams game was goofy obviously the revenge stuff you mentioned they seem pretty healthy other than the Charbonnet thing they're home Rams special teams scares the living shit out of me and I just did not like what I saw from the Rams the last two weeks I don't know how you can feel good about it and I think playing three road games in a row in the playoffs is fucking meaningful.

1:32:36I don't think you can skip over that. They're the first team in the Super Bowl era to not cover the spread in the first two games. They have arrived at the conference championship without covering in either of the two previous weeks. It's really, really hard. One of one. And they also have a rest disadvantage. And there's a nice action network. Teams with the rest advantage, 21 and seven straight up at home. Seattle at home with the extra day. Have you guys been to a game up there in Seattle before? I have. I'm dying to go. It's so cool. And I did Monday Night Football this year against the Texans.

1:33:16But I was at the playoff game where they played the Michael Crabtree, Aaron Andrews game. That one. I was at the Sherman game. When it gets like last week when Shahid returns the kick. Camera trombone. Yeah. Yes. And it's like an avalanche. You can't stop it. It's just too much to momentum. They don't lose many playoff games at home. The one that I remember was against the Rams, but it was during COVID and it was a weird year. And it was Jared Goff with nine fingers beats Russell Wilson off and Goff came in off the bench. But like, they don't lose many games at home. And when that crowd gets going, especially in a night game, like it's very hard to win there.

1:33:53Well, one other thing I like about this, it feels like every week they've gotten a little bit better at using Shahid and kind of figuring out what kind of weapon that is. but him on special teams, I think should be terrifying for the Rams with how bad they've been. But then they can just get him involved a couple times in different ways. And I think they can throw on him. Now there's a chance Darnold could just shit the bed again. Can't be ruled out. He's thrown seven interceptions in two games against this team. Not great. Mike McDonald's first conference championship game as a head coach. I like the look of it.

1:34:31Oh, he was a coordinator for Baltimore when they lost to the Chiefs. I like the two and a half, too. And that's where I'm leaning, unless you want to try to talk me out of it. Perfectly fair number. No, it's super fair. One and a half, you know, whatever it was three weeks ago, two and a half now. And, you know, I think the extra point, half of that extra point for the incredible home field advantage in the playoffs and extra half a point for how good that defense looked last week. Shahid to score a touchdown in the first half, 18-1. Oh, see, I like Kup. I think they're going to get him going.

1:35:05Oh, I'm sorry, to score the first touchdown, 18-1. First touchdown? Yeah, Kup's 15-1 for the first one. Kup, anytime score, plus 280. Get him. They want to get him in there, trust me. I got to make a note of this whole thing. I like the Seahawks minus two and a half, and I like Stafford interception minus 114, that Stafford will throw one pick. I would like to... So for Ringer 107, we have to pick both games straight up and you can parlay them or go straight up and then props or unders for the other two. And I would like to suggest as a possible prop house, Stafford interception minus 114. Did you...

1:35:45I don't have... Go ahead, Pete. Did you see the whole thing with the Pope and the Seahawks? Have you seen that? What's that one? Oh, this is up your alley. in 2005 we got a new Pope and the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl in 2013 we got a new Pope and the Seahawks went to the Super Bowl in 2025 we got a new Pope to the Seahawks sounds like I have to add this to the gambling manifesto if it happens don't bet it gets the Seahawks in the year of a new Pope make this a social clip, will you? Well, I was thinking the flip side of this. Patriots 2001, Brady's first Super Bowl, they upset the Rams. It all comes full circle in 2018.

1:36:37Brady's last Super Bowl, they beat the Rams. Now we're starting the Drake May era. Could it be Drake May trying to beat the Rams for his first Super Bowl and we're basically just book ending? I like your Pope thing more though. All right. So it sounds like Schrags kind of understands why we're going Seahawks minus two and a half, but doesn't really want to say, I don't think. I'm not saying a pick. I'm just, I laid out some things and I'm not disagreeing. Darnold against the Rams doesn't, you know, you could make arguments to the contrary. Patriots Broncos.

1:37:19By the way, did you you read Klosterman's book, right? Yes. Do you have any knowledge of that bloody Sunday that he wrote about the, the Superbowl 10 Cowboys versus Steelers and the, the line started off at two and a half, but nobody was betting it. Then it kept on going up. Yeah. That was the Jackie Smith game. That's the most famous. Did you know that story? Oh yeah. That's the most famous gambling story. They moved the line around and basically the books lost on every version of every bet. Got smoked with a middle, right? Yeah. That was like the first famous gambling story. I think I ever knew.

1:37:51I've never heard that. And basically, if you haven't heard of it, Chuck writes about it. I ripped through that book in like three days. It was two and a half. No one was betting on the underdog, which was the Cowboys. I thought it was three and a half. Was it three and a half? Yeah. It moved between three and a half and four and a half. It bounced back and forth. And every time the line moved, it ended up winning. And then it ends up being a four point game and all the bettors who came in early and all the bettors who came in late all won. Right. And I'm like, this is incredible. And then the pushes, which is the worst case scenario for the books.

1:38:24Not great either. Start us off with Broncos, Pats. Well, the starting point is what your perspective is on the amount of line movement. Because where is it sitting right now? It's four and a half. It's four and a half. It's bounced between five and a half and four and a half. I personally think it should be three and a half, but fine. So that's the, you know, you have to first get yourself comfortable with the math problem, which is in the absence, if Knicks was playing, I think Denver would be favored by one and a half. Do you agree with that or no? Yeah. Denver at home. That's all we're saying.

1:39:10This is the problem with this line. And I said this Sunday night, I don't think going from Knicks to Stidham should be worth six points. I thought it was going to be worth three. I was way off. I picked Pats by one and a half and the line opened at five and a half because I think there's ways for them to win the game without having to rely on Sidham too much. I just thought it was an overreaction. If it was Josh Allen, I get it. But not Bo Nix. You knew that last week. I get it. I get it. And game plan wise... That's seven points better. Here's the thing. The way that the Broncos decided to scheme offense last week against the Bills, they threw the ball 51 times.

1:39:50The strength of the Buffalo Bills defense was supposed to be defending the pass. Now, the way that Denver played all season long, I think they were either the second lowest or lowest air yards, right? They don't go down the field. Everything is around the line of scrimmage in terms of how the ball comes out. That's something where they have such an implicit trust in Knicks. that they're going to have success with that. And so if you want to say, can they replicate that with Stidham? Are they going to be comfortable doing that with Stidham? Can they run that? You left that the other variable because the Pats run defense, people are finally starting to realize is really, really good.

1:40:28And they're going to have to throw the ball on us to beat us. Denver can't run the ball. I tried that last week. I invested in RJ Harvey. There's some McLaughlin in there. Dobbins might come back. Lose money. Yeah. Take my money and set it on fire. The Broncos are not going to try. The J.K. Dobbins thing, what's the current state of affairs? Do we think that he's going to play? By the way, is it going to really make, he's going to come back out of nowhere and his foot's going to, I don't know. I'd be surprised. The practice window is open. We'll see, you know. It's got two days. That might, that could change.

1:41:00Because they did establish the run with him. Let me give you some history with this Jared Stidham situation. Not sure if it was covered on GetUp. Might have been. Might have, Greeny might have been on this. past 50 years playoff home dogs of 4 plus points are 9 and 0 against spread it's true no QB has ever made his first start of the year in round 3 it's never happened Stalbach did it in 72 but it was the second round round 3 it's never happened it was the NFC championship game but yes there was only 2 rounds go on sorry yeah true he's the seventh QB since 1950 to make his first start of the season in the playoffs and I'm going to talk about the other six one of whom was near and dear to house this hard Taylor Heineken in 2020 with the Washington Commanders covered they lost, Tampa's favored by 10, they win by 8 Heineken throws 306 with a touchdown played well next one was Connor Cook for the Raiders, I don't even remember this game I'll tell you, that was against the Texans.

1:42:08Here's what happened. It was Derek Carr got hurt late, and then Matt McGloin was supposed to play, and he got hurt in Week 18, and then they had to start Connor Cook. Well, they lost by 13, and he threw one touchdown and three picks. I do remember this next game. Joe Webb, the 2012 Vikings. Packers favored by 10. Saturday afternoon game, Christian Ponder's wrist, I believe, was what the issue was the morning of. Joe Webb threw 30 passes. How many did he complete, House? oh I remember this we won money at this less than 12 yeah it was 11 that was a Saturday day game and then the night game was that crazy Arizona Green Bay game when Rodgers hit two Hail Marys oh right right 1992 the only win out of all these first time starting all year playoff guys can I guess it Frank Reich Frank Reich yeah great call so here's how it's a little different and this has happened in a couple times Frank Reich, he played a bunch the week before.

1:43:11He at least got his feet wet because I think Kelly got hurt. Buffalo was favored by two at home over the Oilers. They fell down 35-3, staged the biggest comeback in the history of football. Just an amazing moment. I definitely gambled on the game, but I don't remember who I had. But I was definitely gambling at that point and had one of the two sides. Maybe I must have had the Oilers because I think I have blacked out. So that's the only win. this one is a great one 1983 the Detroit Lions are playing Montana and the Niners in San Francisco they win this game right they do not win this game they do cover because the Niners were 7.5 they lose by a point Gary Danielson 23-24 they lose and they lost on like a missed field goal or extra point that was like a chippy well that's one of the reasons they lost they also lost because Gary Danielson threw 5 interceptions that hurts the full DeLome he did a full DeLome on us I don't know if any of them were a pick six before DeLome and then the last one was Staubach Dallas got killed in Washington so 1972 so six quarterbacks they go one and five straight up three and three against the spread the only thing that's different is that Buffalo was the only one that was home and that was Frank Reich who won so I don't know what we learned House I'll give you I mean just he hasn't thrown a pass in a game in over 730 days that's a lot and alright so we had him in New England and I can empty the bag on what Peyton's told me if you wanted me to give you the rallying cry behind it well here's the thing he when Brady left he was supposed to be the starter the next year and he got hurt and he hurt his back and he missed the whole year they ended up doing the Cam Newton thing and, you know, Brian Hoyer.

1:45:05But it was supposed to be Stidham's job and they liked Stidham. The McDaniels went to Denver and was like, I need Stidham. Vegas. I mean, Vegas. Took him with him. It was like, I'm taking Stidham. That's my guy. And then Peyton was like, I like him. Brought him to Denver. So he's been a pretty fairly paid backup. I think he's one of the highest paid backups in the league. And I think coaches have liked him and think he's at least competent. coaches and players. So his nickname is Stiddy. He's got a ton of charisma and swag. And Jason McCourty was on those Patriots teams and was telling me like, Stiddy thinks he's the number one quarterback in the NFL and he acts that way.

1:45:47And you almost love it because he's on the scout team that whole season and he's talking shit to all the defensive players. He was beloved in New England. The very first day of whatever it was. They let him go because I think they got Mac Jones. I think that was one of the reasons they were like, okay, good luck, steady. So McDaniels brings them with them. Obviously, they bench Derek Carr. It's great controversy. Derek Carr, his brother talks on NFL Network, having this all, everything. And then Stidham comes in against the number one defense in the entire league, the 49ers. And Stidham throws for 350 yards and lights up the Niners as a Raider.

1:46:20Free agency comes. Sean Payton's first year with Denver has a big board in his office and he's listing out his priorities. Now, he's already got Russell Wilson, who they're on the hook for for about a billion dollars. And the first name on the list is Jared Stidham. And they paid him as high a salary as any backup quarterback in the league. And they brought him in. And then you'd say, okay, well, Russell didn't work out. Why would they draft Knicks? Well, they fell in love with Knicks. They took Knicks. He's been there all along on Peyton's hip, on Davis Webb's hip, on Joe Lombardi's hip. And when I tell you, talking to Peyton in the summer, telling me stories about Stiddy, They love Stidham.

1:47:01Well, did you buy anything when he came out and did the press conference immediately that he got hurt? I saw on one of the shows, they were like, he wanted the Patriots to know he was fine with going to war with Jared Stidham the next week. Yes, it's also for the Broncos to know that. So instead of Schefter coming out with a tweet during the second half of the Seahawks game, Peyton gets the news, runs to the podium. There's never ever been a second coach's press conference. They assemble the media and he's like, yep, Knicks is hurt. We got Stidham. We feel great with Stidham. Stiddy's good. Look, I'm going to give you a quick Sean Payton history lesson here.

1:47:39You know that he won a Super Bowl and you know that he got suspended for a year from the league. That's the two big things in his career that everyone knows him for. Gut-wrenching, horrible, all-time playoff losses. You're talking about Minneapolis Miracle. You're talking about Alex Smith to Vernon Davis in Candlestick at the last second to beat Drew Brees. You're talking about the Nicole Roby Coleman play where they didn't call the pass interference. They were home and lost an NFC Championship game. You're talking about that wild game against the Buccaneers in the playoffs where they were the home favored team and Tom Brady lights up the Buccaneers, lights up the Saints and wins the division round.

1:48:22And then the Beastquake, where they're 11-5 and they got to go to Seattle. So they've had horrendous, Sean Payton has had horrendous playoff losses. And it's almost like... Well, I mean, the worst one ever was that Rams one. That's probably the worst call of the quarter century, right? Is that the number one worst call? Non-call. It was such a bad non-call that they brought in a brand new rule that they never used one time. We'll review passenger fear. I honestly still don't understand how they messed that up. It was one of the most blatant pass interferences. Probably the most blatant pass interference that wasn't called that I can remember.

1:48:58Now, the Rams fan will tell you this because I've often said that. And the Rams fans' retort is the Saints were up 13-0 at home and lost that playoff game. I know. They also got the ball in overtime. Yeah, I get it. And Drew Brees threw a terrible pick. I remember making that point in the podcast. They did get the ball in overtime. It was still a bad call. So anyway, Peyton's had all these horrible losses. It's like he's always got like some crazy way to lose. Is this the year with Stidham that they get over the hump and he gets back to the Super Bowl? Crazy stat. No, seven coaches have coached in two different Super Bowls with two different teams.

1:49:32No coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. Peyton would be the first. House, give us your Jared Stidham thoughts. Because I'll just tell you right now, he violates at least three rules in the manifesto. How can I have any Jared Stidham thoughts? There's multiple rules that try to cover this. I don't have any Jared Stidham thoughts. and Jared Stidham as a manifesto staple. It's a scheme concept. You just have to believe in what the Broncos are doing scheme-wise. They do have one of the, what, top three offensive lines in all football. That will be a difference for the Patriots.

1:50:07The Patriots had the luxury of playing at home against two of the worst offensive lines, and now they're going up against, by many measures, a top three offensive line. You know that he's going to be comfortable at home. You know that he's going to be comfortable with the rhythm that they want to play at. It's just execution. I have no effing idea. How can you handicap that? You figure there's some kitchen sink stuff in this game with the Broncos, right? Every trick you can imagine. They're going to be pulling all the stops. Yeah, whatever. And pro-stadium stuff other than that we know Peyton likes him.

1:50:45There's a really gruesome Patriots in Denver playoff history. So have you guys ever won in there or no? Not in the playoffs. 0-4 and bad losses. Rulon Jones is a legendary loss. Denver altitude, not great.

1:51:01Denver is not going to be able to run the ball. And I think Denver is going to know that. And Sidham, it's not going to be like, hey, sometimes you're... I think they're just like, dude, you're going to have to chuck it in this game or we're not going to win, which I think might be good or might be terrible. If you're going anti, if he starts out slow and a couple of bad things happen, the crowd's going to die. Yeah, and the team morale is going to go. We've seen this where it's just like, it gets dark. And then I think McDaniels really knows him. He does. So he's going to... Inside and out. I would say Sean Payton's his biggest supporter.

1:51:32Josh McDaniels might be his second biggest supporter in the world. I mean, so much so that they had him as the guy and put that in New England until the injury. And he brought him to Vegas with him. So he knows everything he can do and not do. 100%. Pro-Pat stuff. Beyond the run, Matt Collins coming back is huge. I'm just telling you. Like, he really is going to help them run the ball. And he's kind of Drake's twice-a-game guy on like a third and eight. I feel like May is due for a good start-to-finish game. Maybe he's just too young in his career. But he has this habit of just starting slow for an hour, and then it kicks in.

1:52:10But Denver's defense, not as good as Houston or the Chargers, I don't think. And I think Denver's defense has had some games where they've looked pretty shaky. And then the Sean Payton thing talking about they're going to have plenty of rest. The fans got to be loud. They're going to be plenty of rest in two weeks. Vrabel's going to fucking jump all over that all weekend. What are you doing? You can't do that with Vrabel. He's going to bring that up all the time. So those have been my big ones. House, any other, if you're going pro-pats, anything else you're looking at? No, I was thinking more.

1:52:42I wanted to hear whether there's any indication that Stidham can run. because Knicks ran 12 times last week. Now it was only for about 30 yards or so, but that, the ability of the quarterback... It scares you enough at least to... Yeah, yeah. Okay, does he have that? He's got it, but it's not like we've seen it. I mean, he's got that in his game. Apparently he can move. I asked the same thing and yeah, he's got some mobility, but he's not Bo. Bo Knicks can run. Yeah, yeah, he definitely can. I don't like this line at all. Wait, Bill, a couple thoughts on the Patriots for you. And I want to hear your thoughts.

1:53:17First thing, Drake May, six fumbles in two playoff games? Not great. Two... Will Campbell, he might start in a Super Bowl at left tackle. I'm not sure this guy is your franchise left tackle. He might be an amazing left guard. I don't... I understand Khalil Mack and Will Anderson are unbelievable. But like, every time May went back last week, it was... Hold your breath. This Nick Benito can run and can rush to quarterback. So that's something I would watch out for. Shrigs? I'm aware. Yeah. I'm going to float this at you. Are we sure Will Campbell's healthy? Fair. He missed, what, three or four weeks at the end of the season?

1:53:58He doesn't look like he has the same kind of side-to-side movement that he used to have. I'm a little worried about that. Then I have a flip side kind of thing for you. Yeah. I've seen this a lot. A lot of hate on this Patriots run and that we should discredit it based on the quarterbacks that they've played in the easy schedule and all that. As someone who follows the NFL, I am here to tell you, and I am not a Patriots fan by any means, it is the most ludicrous thing to say that a team that's on the eve of a Super Bowl has had an easy path. I think it's absurd. That defense that they faced last week in Houston, against Houston, is one of the best defenses the NFL has seen in years.

1:54:39And the Chargers defense, whether or not they play that way consistently all season, was phenomenal against the Patriots that week. Denver's good too, but if I'm a Patriots fan, do not apologize for anything. This has been an amazing run. I made that point on Sunday. The Chiefs had that first Super Bowl Mahomes won where they played the freaking Texans and then Tannehill and the Titans and Jimmy Garoppolo in the Super Bowl. Nobody was like, oh, who'd they play? There's some stat going around on one of my Pat's text threads about the DVOA of the defenses the Patriots have played this year is seventh and the Rams' defenses is ninth.

1:55:18It's like, why don't they mention that? I think the line's too high, House. But I also think the Patriots are going to win. Okay. So I'm really, I just, I think this is going to be a close game. I think it's really hard to like win a game convincingly in Denver with a team. It's one thing if Stidham came in in the second quarter and they're like, oh shit, we got to change everything. They've had all week to figure out exactly how to do this. They're going to be able to throw on the Pats a little bit. And then it's really going to come down to, is Ramon Drake going to be able to run the ball and is Drake not going to turn the ball over?

1:55:58And I don't know the answers. I think Ramon Drake is going to be able to run the ball. I want to ask you. You need to run the ball. And for God's sake, can Drake may run the ball? the ball? Was that too much to ask for? Fourth quarter, finally, they started running. It was crazy. A couple of the bets that I like for the props. Yes. Drake's longest run is 12 and a half yards. He did that in six of his last eight games. Not against Houston. No. Ramondre's longest reception, 10 and a half yards is the over-under. He's done that in seven of the last nine. Is he 100 % healthy? What's the deal with his eye?

1:56:32He's fine. He got poked in the eye. So I like that. And then there's some Stidham props? Stidham basically to throw 20 completions or more is 19.5 is the completion number. And I just don't think they're going to be able to run the ball that well on the pats and Stidham's going to have to throw the ball. How many times did they throw it last week? 51? Yeah. Plus he scrambled 12 times? 46. 46 passes. And then Stidham 199 plus yards I thought was interesting too because they're going to get offense. Shrigs, I know you love the tie first half, Monday line I was texting you throughout the first half.

1:57:11I'm like, I don't like this. They're up 11. I don't like this. They're up four. That's 16 to one. Do it. And then there's some money line stuff we can do, House. You can do Pat's money line with the under of 50 and a half. That fits Ringer 107 rules. You can do Pat's money, Denver plus 14 and a half. It's minus 108. So basically the Pat's win between one and 14 points. We could do that. We could do Pats plus five and a half with Denver plus eight and a half. That's minus 111. Basically saying it's going to be either the Pats will lose a close game or Denver's going to lose by less than a touchdown.

1:57:54Those were probably the ones I was looking at the most. But I had the Pats money line with the under 50 and a half. There'd be 51 points in this game. Seems pretty high. If we knew how many turnovers there would be, then I would feel more comfortable with it. But like, I just... Let's just hope there's not a close call at the end because the NFL's got to, you know, get it going. We got to kick off afterwards. Shrigs, Broncos D gave up 29 to Indy, 32 to the Giants, 24 to Dallas, 26 to Green Bay, 26 to Washington, and 30 to Buffalo last week. Yeah, and yet they rushed the passer, which is what you have to be worried about with your quarterback.

1:58:32Yeah. Can we just target Riley Moss and throw some? I think they might have led the league in sacks. that could be actually throwing that number out. They might not even be good at stats. Can we go big picture? Did you think Denver was that good this season? Cardiac kids type season, like the Bears. Like, just won amazing games, but I don't know if they're that good. They're the number one seed, though, and they earned a home field advantage, which I think is huge there. I thought they were good. House? I thought they were good. I think the Seahawks are, like, another level. The Patriots. I think they're good.

1:59:03They're fine. Two fine teams. The conference championship right to go to the Super Bowl. Fine. So it sounds like we have to trust the manifesto. What's the manifesto net out with? We had a lot of different arguments there. It says, beware of the nobody believes in us team for the Broncos. That's scary.

1:59:23Beware of any team that could use a notable off-field distraction, major injury, or tragedy as a galvanizing force. They fit that one. Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that has a chance to win. They hit that one as well. Rule number 11. Don't talk yourself into a terrible QB ever for any reason. It's tricky. We don't know if he's terrible. And be super careful with first-time playoff QBs who are basically like 20 and 42 against straight up and also terrible against the spread. And then remember the law of Lombardi, bad offensive lines don't travel. That could be the Patriots.

2:00:04Yeah, that's the Patriots. Denver's offensive line is pretty good. Rule number 18. Take one last look at the quarterbacks.

2:00:15It doesn't help us. The fear of this is you talk yourself into the Broncos all week and then Jared Stidham sucks. The reason he sucks is because he's been a backup QB his whole career. You're watching the game and you're a half hour and you're like, what did I do? I just bet on the Broncos backup QB in the AFC title game. I'm an idiot. Sean Payton loved him so, so much that he drafted Bo Nix in the first round with him on the roster. Right. He loved him so much. He used the biggest draft capital piece he had on a competitor that could take his job. Here's what I envision. And when you're talking about, oh, shit, you start the game and you're like, wait, House is exactly right.

2:00:58One of those wide receiver screens to like Marvin Mims or Cortland Sutton, and he throws a wobbly ball and it's a pick six to start the game and you're like, all right, here we go. Right. House, we taking the Pats minus four and a half? I hate it. We're not? Too many points. You got to take Denver. The math says take Denver. There's no, from the perspective of like just the basic math of it, you have to play Denver. I can't do it. You can't lay four and a half. It just doesn't, there's no basis for it. It doesn't make any sense. All right. So I'm going to do Pat's Moneyline with the under 50 and a half then.

2:01:35Okay. I'm not going to argue with you. I'm just, you know, we haven't had great success tying things together. Maybe this will be when it turns. It could be. We did go three and one last week. We should have gone four and O. We talked ourselves into the stupid Niners. I know. That was me. No, it was fair. Very interesting nugget here. Maybe my most insightful stuff. If it goes as you guys say, we'll have two Mikes coaching against each other in the Super Bowl. If it goes the opposite way, it'll be two Seans coaching against each other in the Super Bowl. My work is done. That's so dumb. You don't like any under in the Seahawks, right?

2:02:17That's a stay away. All right, Wainer 107 is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. That's where we get the lines from. And our first game is going to be the Patriots-Broncos. we are going to take the Patriots money line parlayed with an under of 50 and a half. So if this game goes to 51 points and up, we lose. We're scared of the line. It's happened before. Broncos plus four and a half at home. There's no sign of history of this not covering, which is a little worrisome. There's also some bad, but we covered all of it in the pod. That's one. Second, Ramondre Stevenson, longest reception, 10 and a half yards over.

2:02:59A little bailout. Or maybe a little wheelbrow. I adore this. Something. He's did it seven of his last nine times. That's our second bet. Love this one. Third bet. Going Seahawks minus two and a half against the Rams. Rams, third straight road game. I think the Seahawks are the best team in the league. We'll see if Darnold's oblique can hold up. Then last but not least, what do you think? Matthew Stafford for the interception minus 114? What is the cup anytime touchdown? But we're doing ringer 107. We don't need to take a risk. Got it, got it, got it. So we could do Stafford. You could do the Drake May longest rush, 12.5 yards.

2:03:40Or we could do Stidham plus 19.5 completions.

2:03:47What excites you the most, House? Stafford interception? That would be the most fun to root for. You don't like that one? Well, he just doesn't throw a ton of picks. It's like not his thing. and he didn't throw it, you know, whatever that was, three weeks ago, no interceptions. Shrigs, is there a guy in the Seahawks-Rams game you feel like could be heard from? I like Cup. You like the Cup alt-receiving? I feel like they're going to this is it sounds absurd I feel like they're going to make a priority and an emphasis on getting Cup involved against his former team with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line Cup 30 plus yards minus 114 fits our parameters I like it you like that one house?

2:04:32that's my favorite of all the ones really? you like that more than the my second favorite is Stidham completion so think so you can tell where my head's at and the tie well I'll parlay it I could also offer you Rashid Shahid, five plus rushing yards at minus 108. It's one sweep around the corner. They had that great sweep for a big play. Just one time. One little gimmick sweep. I love that one. Why did you wait so long to do that one? We'll do that one. That's my favorite. That's a terrific one. That's one run. Rashid Shahid, five plus yards, minus 108. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel, odd subject to change.

2:05:14shrinks. So you're going to the Super Bowl. Yeah. And then what happens? Are you at one of these games this weekend? I'm not. I work on Monday Night Football, so there's no Monday situation. I'll say this. There's supposed to be this horrendous blizzard, Joe House. I know you're aware. It's common. I think the NFL is in cahoots with the weather gods. The ratings are going to be absolutely insane. No one's leaving the house for two days and we just have two football games on. I can't wait. There's even stuff in like Texas, like Dallas is getting annihilated like they did at that Super Bowl. Yeah.

2:05:50We were at that Super Bowl. We were. The Ice Bowl. That was my favorite Super Bowl. We were the only ones there. Nobody else could get there. Were you at that one? Of course I was. That was the best one. That was my favorite one. I don't think we were hiring a Shreggs at that. We had a great time. I don't think we hung. I think the first time I hung with Bill at a Super Bowl was New Orleans when it was 49ers Ravens. Oh, wow. I think Lewis K. introduced us and I was like a kid in a candy shop. I was there. That was 2013. That was me against Cousin Sal. So, Hav, were you there the last night and before the game in Dallas when we went to that party and nobody was at the party and they had like a million things of booze?

2:06:26Was that the party that Demi Moore and Ashton Kuchar? Yes. And we were all huddled under the heat lamps? Yeah, with Aaron Andrews. Name drop, motherfucker. We did it all. Lewis was there. We had a bunch of people, but... Lewis was there. We were drinking and freezing to death. And I flew from there to New York and I got bronchitis. I was the sickest I've ever been. I was in the, ironically, the Trump Plaza Hotel in New York City for two days. Like having like fever dream, like thinking I was going to die level six and missed multiple flights back. It was the most sick I've ever been, but I had a great time.

2:07:03Thank you, Dallas. It's worth it. Thank you, Dallas. Thank you, Dallas. Do you go to that Nick and Steph's? Great steakhouse down there. definitely did that. Nick and Tony's. The funny thing is with Dallas, Dallas is set up where it's like they have no snowplow. They have no ice. Destroyed. No salt for the ice of the things. They just have no plan if there's ever bad weather. It's like, sorry guys, you're on your own. It's the strangest thing we ever saw. Nobody could drive around. No, the bus drivers didn't know how to do it. They like careened off the road if you remember. It's like black ice.

2:07:34Yes, it was brutal. Honestly, Dallas is handling of bad weather would be the most inexplicable thing this century with Dallas if they hadn't traded Luka Doncic for a banged up Anthony Davis. That's still number one. How about you suggesting Luka? How about you suggesting, what was it? LeBron James for cat. All my Knicks fans texted me. Would they get mad? No. Everyone's sick of killing it. You missed earlier in the podcast. We traded Luka for Giannis. He just tried that. Yeah, you tried it. It got rejected. It's on today's show. Real quick. Shrings. Real quick. Oh, go. Netflix, they've had this whole thing.

2:08:08Netflix is a joke. I've seen all these ads about Tim Dillon doing something and this one's doing something. Can we get a Simmons in-house May Netflix is a joke, like a live event where you guys are doing something for Netflix? Can I go and attend that? I would love that. I'm actually doing that because I'm doing something with the guys from Tires. Oh, those guys are good. So Shane Zillis and Matt. Yeah, we're doing that. We're doing that in Matt. Yeah. I have to invite myself to be in the audience for that. You can absolutely definitely come. You and I will be backstage. We're in Bill Simmons T-shirts.

2:08:38Where's the food? Where is it? It's in LA. Oh, great. I think I'm going to see Shane Gillis this weekend if the snow doesn't stop me. He's playing at the Garden. New York City. I have friends that are going to that. Okay. Happy for that, dude. Schraggs, great to see you. House, thanks for sticking around for two hours and nine minutes. House with the Eastside Golf hat. I see that. You know how we do it. Great brand. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, new rewatch was coming Monday. First time on Netflix. It is going to be Zodiac. You can also get it on Spotify as well. We're taping it tomorrow.

2:09:14Could be three hours. Me and Fantasy and Chris Ryan. Fincher. And that's it. We have a bunch more pods going on Netflix as well, starting on Monday. Guys, enjoy the weekend. Go Pats. Let's go football.

2:09:34I don't have periods with them.

2:10:04line, ma.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support Massachusetts, or call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.