Luka’s Heater, Wemby’s Bid, and Stealth Winners of the NBA Season With Zach Lowe

22:04Bill Simmons:Every time it's the Costanza, the Costanza, you're spotting dimes on the floor. you're eating onions what's going on with you they're that team this year I don't know what to expect from them even Chris Finch on the sidelines just I don't think he he called those he called those two timeouts when the Wolves were winning by like 8 or 10 points in the fourth quarter like one bad possession and he was just like stop it we're stopping it now one Randall turnover up 12 that's it timeout another timeout I'm not letting this go on anymore I don't think he knows but they did whoop the Lakers last year in the playoffs and LeBron is still 41.

22:41Like, who knows how much his body can take? I don't know. He looks the freshest.

22:47Bill Simmons:It's unbelievable. I don't know if there was an Italy trip. Let's walk through how do the Lakers actually get to the finals as a thought exercise. I think step number one in the 3-6, not having Denver there. I think Houston or Minnesota has to be the succeed, because I think they could beat either one of those teams. And I would pick them to win either of those series, would you? I'm not ready to pick them over Minnesota yet. I want to see, I want, Minnesota's another team I want to watch for the next two weeks to see when Ant comes back, what condition is he in and can they get their shit together?

23:22If Ant's 100%, if Ant's 100%, we did see this movie last year, a version of it, and it did not go well for the Lakers. Now they're better and more cohesive right now, but I would not, I would, if Minnesota's healthy, I'd probably pick Minnesota.

23:36Bill Simmons:Interesting. I need more time. Well, so let's say Houston, right? LA-Houston round one. Minnesota plays Denver. And somehow Minnesota beats Denver. I'm just trying to think of like the perfect LA situation. San Antonio-Phoenix. I don't think San Antonio would lose to Phoenix. I do want to mention, and I know you've seen this too, Phoenix plays San Antonio really well. They junk it up with them. They do weird shit. They're really physical with Wemby. Booker is whatever, for whatever reason, comfortable against the Spurs. And I do think that wouldn't be like a layup of a series as well as San Antonio's playing.

24:20Bill Simmons:And then Lakers-San Antonio would just have to be a classic. You guys were probably better, but you weren't ready yet. We just had too much experience for you series. Even Aiton has experience. Aiton was in the finals. You know, Luka's been in the finals. LeBron's been in nine finals, eight finals. I don't remember. a lot of finals and it's just your oh we thought san antonio was going to win but this is a great learning experience for them and then they would just have to hope somebody took out okc because i don't think there's a chance in hell that the lakers would ever beat okc that's the one i'm just not accepting well the big development of the week in the nba is going to be jalen williams coming back uh tomorrow because i think from what i've heard that they've really slow played this to the max because once the prospect of a historic season went away for them, Oklahoma City just pivoted to all we care about is winning the championship.

25:13And he was starting, you know, early on it was the wrist and he wasn't shooting well and he didn't look like himself. Then that started to sort itself out. Then hamstring number one happened, comes back, has two good games, the hamstring number two, the same hamstring, but again happens. if he looks like Jalen Williams I just it's hard to see anybody beating them in a best of seven series Lakers Spurs would be a lot of fun it's the series where you look at the teams on paper going into the series and you're like this is a wipeout like there's just no it's really hard to make a case that the Lakers would win the series but they have Luka and all of those series like Like Lakers going to San Antonio and win game one.

25:55Luka has 48 points and makes it three with a minute left to put him away. The whole thing feels different at that point. I mean, I would definitely pick the Spurs. I assume you would too. I just trust their depth and their athleticism.

26:06Bill Simmons:There is a scenario for them to beat the Spurs. So think about it. You have to go four and three in a series. Two crazy Luka games. There's two wins. The one game where they have like the 50 to 15 free throw advantage and everyone on San Antonio fouls out and then conspiracy bill us to make an appearance the next morning. Like that game's probably built in and we somehow get it back to San Antonio for game seven, young team at home, biggest game, a lot of them, probably all of them have ever played in and the old veteran team. And we've just seen versions of that game get weird. And I think the Lakers just need to get, they would have to get to that game, a game seven in San Antonio.

26:47Bill Simmons:Let's put the young team to the fire and see how they feel. And that would be the scenario. I don't think they could beat them in six. San Antonio is too good. The one stat that I would track for the Lakers is turnover rate. Because that's been part of the secret sauce of Lucas' teams. He's a very low turnover player. His teams do not turn it over a lot because of how Lucas-centric the offense is. And for a lot of this season, they've kind of lost that plank of their offense. And they're starting to get it back. It's almost Boston-y. When they take care of the ball and just get a shot or a free throw in every possession, when you have that guy orchestrating it all it's it's tough to deal with it's tough to stop when they start to lose the turnovers a little bit it gets they become more beatable but yeah they're look they're scary luke is scary seven guys maybe six and a half what's weird is they probably could have added at least one more guy at the trade deadline and just basically punted on it like they could have done a future first or even some seconds somebody like gafford they could have turned Vanderbilt into somebody else, but they kind of, Canard was the only thing they did.

27:49Who's been, by the way, amazing for them, including the game winner last night.

27:53Bill Simmons:But it looks like seven guys. I don't know what we're going to get from Rui with, he's already seems like he's banged up, but. I was actually going to ask you about the Lakers' death because I think the Spurs are not a super deep team, but everyone that plays is really good and really athletic and pretty young. and the Lakers it's Rui, Laravia Kennard, Hayes is basically the bench that's literally the bench and I don't well and like Vanderbilt will get tossed in there for two weeks and then JJ will get tired of his inability to shoot and he'll be gone I just it's a bench of guys that have lost coaches trust in the playoffs like multiple times and that, except for Laravia, who has very little playoff experience, and that makes me a little bit nervous.

28:42Bill Simmons:The funny thing about Aiton, who I've still given up on. I'm not changing my stance. But at least he's been in big games and teams have had success with him in April and May. Right? It's not like you're throwing somebody out there who's never been successful ever as a professional basketball player. Like, he did win playoff series. He was on really good teams, and it is lurking in there, which is the frustrating title. and think about him. And whatever version we're getting of him lately is a little closer to that 21 version. I'll defend the 21 version. He weirdly plays Jokic like pretty well.

29:18He does. He's pretty comfortable. Jokic, like, did the jersey swap with him? Was like, you and me, man, like, we're peers. And Aiden was like, oh, okay. He's like, well, thank you.

29:29Bill Simmons:We got to take a break and then we're going to do a deep dive on Wemby. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by Sam's Club. It is that time of the year when you just got to get in your car and go somewhere. I've done that plenty of times in my life. Nowhere gets you ready to go. Quite like Sam's Club. Snacks, the gear, super low prices on gas. They got a bunch of stuff that keep you and the whole crew rolling. And here's what you got to do. You got to join the club of Yes End at samsclub.com slash yes end. You must be 18 years or older to purchase membership and membership is subject to qualifications.

30:04Bill Simmons:visit samsclub.com slash yes and for details. This episode is brought to you by Audi, the official car of my son. Yeah. We all know the feeling, a change of plans, a new opportunity. Instead of overthinking, what if he just said yes? With the all new Audi Q3, the answer is easy. It's made for the yes life with the power and room to handle whatever pops up. Yes to adventure, yes to right now because saying yes without hesitation, that's the real luxury. The all new Audi Q3 made for the yes life. Learn more at AudiUSA.com. All right, we're gonna do a little deep dive on San Antonio and Wemby. I said on my podcast on Tuesday that Wemby, and I've seen all the players, was the best guy I saw in person this year.

30:54Bill Simmons:You, the Spock of my life, Zach Lowe, didn't totally blink when I said it because it feels like you've been circling the same turf. So they're 25-5 in their last 30. First in net. It's a 30-game sample size. They're 21-1 in Wemby's last 22 games. Seems relevant. They're 43-13 when he plays. And tell the audience what you texted me this week about Wemby, about what we should do. Just, this is his third year, and you know, there's a reasonable conversation to be had already. Is he the best player in the NBA? I'm a little shaken by saying it out loud. And so I started to think like, who are the youngest or who was soonest, earliest into their careers to be considered possibly the best player in the NBA?

31:50And he'd be just about one of the young. I mean, I went through like, when did LeBron first finish top three in MVP? When did I mean, Kareem walks into the league already at 22 because he played in college and all that. Yeah, four years. MVP immediately. Duncan was first team All-NBA his first season. I think he finished third in MVP voting. You know, Shaq was top three MVP by his third season. So it's like not, Jordan was top three MVP by his third season. So it's not unprecedented, but something about this, I don't know if it's that he's so young. Is he still just 21? He's 22 now. Just turned 22.

32:25Yeah. um it's that is so young and last season was like a half season for him because of the blood clot stuff uh but i think shay i i put shay number one in ringer 100 um i just the benefit that doubt still goes to this super guard who's shooting 55 from the floor and is a very good defensive player for his position but i do every time i watch the spurs and it actually it's every time he has a good jump shooting game because when the jump shot is falling at like an average or above average rate you're just like i don't know i don't even know what we're supposed to do with this guy because the defensive impact is i just think i i don't know that any statistical system can can like quantify what he's doing on every single possession defensively and it's not like we all joke about the shots that aren't taken the nope the nopes like nope i'm gonna u-turn right out of here it even just goes beyond that it's it's how teams set up their offense it's what they even set out to try to accomplish at the start of every possession everything is different when he's on the floor and i don't even know how to measure that because he's the most dominant defensive player i've ever seen already and i you know i'm not that old but i've seen garnett and olajuwon and kawaii and kg i mean i already said kg but like you know all all the guys post like 70s.

33:46And I don't remember anything like this.

33:50Bill Simmons:The only one I can remember over the course of history, the way people talked about it, was Russell. That there was just no way to quantify what he was doing. They didn't even keep track of blocks back then. That was my thought when I was there for that Clipper game Monday. It's so much easier to quantify an offensive impact and what Luka is doing right now. We have all these different stats or what Shea is doing right now. And our brains kind of, because the fantasy basketball aspect of it, we, we tend to overrate the offense compared to the defense. If both are historically unbelievable. I just think you make the case, just what he's doing alone on defense is at least equal to what Shea and Luca and joke are doing on offense.

34:34Bill Simmons:It's there's two sides of the court. Everything he's doing on that end has to be like, I would say around as impactful, but then you throw in what he's doing offensively, where he's basically 24 a game now. And I think that's the case. And what you mentioned about the think-agains, or I would call them the rethinks. There's no way to keep track of this statistically. But you can see these guys in real time who've been playing basketball their whole life, who have been doing the same moves and the same rhythms and the same things over and over again, that in real time over the course of a second are like, oh shit, I can't do that.

35:09Bill Simmons:And they just have to ad lib audible. And then the offense completely falls apart for three seconds as they kind of figure out a plan B. And he just does this the entire game. And there we have off, we have defensive ratings, right? You can do opposing field goal percentage. You can do field goal percentage at the rim. There's these stats that can kind of tell the story. I don't know how you measure somebody changing their mind 30 times in a game, which is what he's doing now. So the counter argument to what you said, because I remember making an argument, not quite like this. Um, when I voted Kawhi MVP in 2017, I leaned into the, there are two sides of the ball and he's maybe not as impactful as hard and as offensively, but he's averaging 26, 27 a game, whatever.

35:56Uh, but he is the best defensive player in the league. and I remember saying at the time it's not 100 % equal because a great offensive player can have the ball every single possession on offense and control the whole game and a great defensive player can be just out of the play randomly a third of the time or actively avoided a third of the time and I think Wemby is the exception to this. I just think there's no playing him out of the play. There's no avoiding him. He is impactful defensively no matter where he is. and the rethinks, you can see that. Like, I don't know how, like, you can see it.

36:34I don't know how you quantify it, but you can see it. I just think it goes even beyond that. I think the entire thought process of every offensive possession, starting when you inbound the basketball or get a defensive rebound, is just different when he's on the floor. And when he's off the floor, there's a freedom, a certainty, a confidence that, like, our entire playbook is now open, whereas that's not the case with Wemby. and I just think he's the exception to the well defense can't be half the game on an individual level because a defender can't impact it the same way like a ball dominant offense player can I think he's massively impactful every single second on defense no matter where he is no matter where you try to hide his guy no matter what you do he's there and he's in your head yeah you can't compare

37:20Bill Simmons:it to a Kawhi because Kawhi is basically guarding one guy or switching this is like this is a two and a half hour impact, even if he's playing 32, 33 minutes a game. There's a few different things. Like Garland was testing him, the game I went to on Monday night. And there was a couple of times where he went to, he drove into the paint. He had like his little 10 foot kind of moon ball jump shot he shoots. But because of Wemby, you have to really moon ball it, right? So it's not a moon ball. Now I'm basically like I'm in a carnival trying to make it one of those rims that's shorter than the basket.

37:56Bill Simmons:All right, so if he misses that, Wemby didn't block it, but Garland missed a shot because Wemby's 7 '6 and had his hand up. I don't know how we keep track of that. The three-point shooting, he affects, I don't know, 7 '8 a game, it seems like, where he's just kind of out with his hands up and you can see the guy. And then everything around the rim. Guys just don't want to be embarrassed by him because they know if you challenge him. So you were talking about the historical stuff, and I think it's really hard. I basically looked at two different things. 22 and under seasons. So the best seasons by guys, 22 years old or younger than that.

38:32Bill Simmons:And then I looked at year two players because I thought that was the best parallel. Cause like, just like it could go back in history with guys coming out of college. You know, like Kareem was in college four years. Duncan was in college four years. It's not fair to say like, all right, I can, I looked at rookie seasons with Wemby's year three. I think it's too hard, but year two is like, all right, my feet, I got my feet wet. Now I'm ready to kind of dominate, which is where Wemby is in. But the 22 and under seasons, Duncan's the best one. Duncan, the 99 in the strike season, which you mentioned, finals MVP.

39:08Bill Simmons:They win the title. And I think at the end of the season, he's the best player in the league. I think that's the consensus is he was the best start to finish player that we watched in 1999. Now he finished third in MVP. And I went back and I really deep dove that. and it's not a great outcome. Carl Malone wins it. I think Duncan's team had a better record. Duncan's stats are the same. I think Duncan was a better defensive player at that point, but they just, they gave it to the old guy and that, you know, we didn't have the same stats we had back then. So regardless, he's won. Magic won finals MVP at age 20 and then he won a title and was second All-NBA in 82.

39:48Bill Simmons:Kobe won two in a row, title, second All-NBA at 21 and 22. And Shaq, 95 finals, second place MVP. That's his third season, I think, right? Is that his second season or third season? That's his third season, but he was 22. So good parallel out of Wemby. And then there's some others. Like you mentioned LeBron a couple of times. Derrick Rose won the MVP when he was 22. So did Wes Unseld. But what's at stake for Wemby here is has a chance to win the MVP. I don't think he will, but he'll finish top two and has a chance to win the title, which is rarefied air. And then you talk about the best year two players.

40:23Bill Simmons:So I know this is goofy one, but only three year two guys won the title that were first team All-NBA, which was 99 Duck and 81 Bird and 71 Kareem. And I'm only mentioning that because I think that's the territory he's in. And it feels weird to have all these names from the first 80 years of the league and be like, holy shit, those are the best names we have. But I do think that's what we're watching. And that's why I wanted to talk about it because, you know, 71, Kareem was the MVP. He was the finals MVP. That Milwaukee team was incredible. But he had also had four years of college. You know, he's older.

41:03Bill Simmons:He was a more established identity than Wemby is. This Wemby thing we were hoping would happen. And it's kind of happening in real time. And it's happening over the last three months, I feel like, for real. And you could just feel it with that team where they're like, we have the best guy. but then you look at OKC and they're like, we have the best guy. And the Lakers feel that way and Denver feels that way. To your earlier point, we have four teams right now with a chance to at least be in the finals that all feel like they have the best guy. And I think they'll have a case. There's no question that it is happening, that the names that you're comparing them to are apt.

41:39We all are smart enough to understand that all of those comparisons are contingent to longevity and titles. and we all get that but that's what we're watching right that's the parallel track that he's on with those same players at those same ages in this level that he's reaching where you can plausibly say he has a true shooting percentage of 62 percent Jokic is 68 Shea is 67 and he might still be the best player in the league because the defensive impact is that stark the other reason we know that it's happening is that the Spurs are 53 and 18. Like this is a real fucking team. It's not like, oh yeah, the Spurs there.

42:18It's going to be them or Phoenix for the sixth seed. What a great story. They're 53 and 18 with Wemby on the floor, 120 points per 100 possessions. And here's the kicker, 103.5 allowed. Wow. The number one, 103.5. The number one defense in the NBA is Oklahoma City at 106. And they're almost three points ahead of number two, which is Detroit at 109. Wemby is at 103.5 for the Spurs with Wemby at our 103.5. And it's just like, yeah, I mean, you could if you argue right now, I'm ready to stamp it. He's the best player in the league. I would still I think Shea has the throne right now. and Jokic is right next to the throne or one or the other, but it's a three to four person race right now.

43:09Bill Simmons:Yeah, I guess we could have different adjectives. I think Shea has the right to still be the best player in the league since he's the reigning finals MVP and he's going to win the MVP again. They're going to win. I think maybe you could say Wemby is the most impactful. That he is. I think we're just playing with language. Like someone's got to be the best, right? That's why when I said Wemby was the best player I saw in person, this year, I was like, I kind of can't believe that's coming out of my mouth, but I just kind of know what I saw. But, you know, there's still a level to this in the playoffs.

43:41Bill Simmons:So you could say he's been, maybe he's the best regular season player, however you want to put it. But Shea has done it in the playoffs, so is Joker. Luka has done it at least until the finals in 24, and Wemby has not been in that situation before. The only, so you would have him second MVP right now? I voted for him first in Ringer 100 in our last poll. How'd it feel when you typed it in? How did it feel? I texted it to barrier and I was like, I have a doozy coming and I'm not doing it for content or just because it's a bit like, I really think I feel this way. And he just said he respected it.

44:18Bill Simmons:I don't know if he thought I was crazy or if I'd been drinking. Um, but I, I honestly, you, you could have flipped them either way. What was interesting was Joker had been at the top for a couple of years, I think since maybe 2023. And, um, and he got nudged down and you could even argue like what Luca has been doing. He's kind of risen to, to Joker's equal lately. So even that's kind of a thing. Lately is the key. You can't wipe, you can't wipe away the period that you described as a rut from earlier in the season when his numbers were still outrageous, but something you could see it something with the team and the way he was playing was a little bit off.

44:59You can't wipe that away. This is going to be one of those years where like that 2017 MVP race, like some of the 1991 you mentioned earlier, you know, some years four and five on the ballot, you're like, I don't know, maybe Jalen Brunson. Sure, throw Jalen Brunson, whatever. And then some years are like, I have to play. Yeah, like that. And then other years, like 2017 and 1990, you're like, I have to write this guy's name in the fourth spot. Like this is obscene. I have to write LeBron James number four? Or is it like that? Can we just not even do this? This is, I feel ashamed of myself for doing this, but someone has to be fourth.

45:35Bill Simmons:I looked up the 91 Bulls because that would be, if you think the Spurs can actually lay it down and actually win the title this year, the 91 Bulls would probably be the comparison. Young team kind of took off second half of the year. So they started out 30 and 14 and they finished 31 and seven. they've won 61 games. They finished first in net rating, which I think is attainable for San Antonio the way it's going. And in their version, they had MJ, who was the best player in the world, but we still had the magic. And, you know, there were other people. And it's like, sure, he's the best individual player, but is he the best player?

46:12Bill Simmons:And we were doing all that stupid sports talk stuff. And then he laid the smack down. So that would be the parallel. I guess the bigger point to me is, is it like legitimately conceivable that the spurs will win four rounds and wendy will be the finals mbp holding up the trophy and i think it's conceivable and i wouldn't have said that two months ago even when they were when they were going toe-to-toe with okc in december it's like wow we have we have a rivalry now i didn't think they could win four straight playoff rounds and now i think they could i said it on christmas goldsberry asked me point blank on my show what do you think the ceiling is for this team and i said i think they can win the title i think they can win the title i don't the experience question is is a thing it will manifest itself at some point in some moment in some game i just if you tell me the read if you articulate like why can't they win the title other than experience like which is a real thing but like what is actually what is an external obstacle that can prevent them from winning the title i think the list is the thunder i think they can beat anybody now that's not saying i'm going to pick them over Denver for sure because I have that much respect for the Nuggets.

47:21But I mean, who can't they beat? And the only team that you could like, that team's a pretty big favorite is the Thunder. And they beat them four out of five times. Asterix on a couple of them. But the first three were like, ooh, ooh, something uncomfortable is happening here.

47:37Bill Simmons:I liked how the Celtics played them before Jalen got thrown out. And I think that's the type of... By the way, what ref made that decision? That was awful. It's old news, but it was awful. I think that's the type of team though with like big wings that can just keep attacking because if you're going to ding the spurs on anything they're probably a little smaller than wendy and maybe it's a team with size which is why okc is such an interesting matchup for them but the fact that they played okc so well i think really matters with this but that's that's a team we saw actually affect okc we haven't really seen anyone else do that and they're going to feel like that uh seeing them in person on monday the thing I noticed is that they're still a pretty young team offensively.

48:21Bill Simmons:They still just laps into like threes and, um, they don't like, like kind of what Jalen does with the Celtics this year, where it's like this, our offense is going a little sideways. I'm just going to go to the basket. I'm just going to get contact, try to get to the line. They don't really have a guy like that. And it's just a lot of jump shots where it might work for four rounds, but that was the one, it feels like they could be up 17 and they can hit a little cold stretch and you can actually come back on them, especially when Wemby's on the bench. That would be my only big nitpick other than the other thing that's going to happen, and we haven't talked about this, I think teams are going to be brutal with Wemby.

48:57Bill Simmons:And you've already seen it during this season. Teams are going to be really, really physical with him. They're going to bang him. They're going to knock him down. They're going to try to hit him hard on dunks. They're just going to try to really, really wear him down because he's 7 '6". I think he might be 7 '7". Let's keep going. Let's say 8 feet. I think he's a legit 7 '7", personally. 8 '2"? But he does fall a lot. And I asked some people who know him about this, and they said he actually practices falling. So I was right. It's almost like a gymnast. He falls in sections, but somehow learns how to not get hurt.

49:34Bill Simmons:But I just think teams... And I don't know. What do you think is the Western team that would be like, we're fucking this guy up for two weeks? Well, I mean, the Thunder fuck everyone up. I mean, they're extremely physical and they do it very well. I mean, if the Rockets had Adams, and I think they would still give it a run. Minnesota can be a nasty physical team. I think Minnesota could do it. Yeah. And by the way, you're seeing it with Jokic too. I mean, in the last two or three weeks, there's been not a sea change because teams dabbled in it, but most teams are now guarding Jokic with a wing or a power forward and putting their center somewhere else and just having like today it was tumani kamara guarded yokich for half the game and i toronto scotty barnes guarded yokich the whole game and purdle was elsewhere and just being like front him hit him get on get in his waist and his legs just beat the hell out of him try to stall for time and it's just that's been it's been interesting i mean denver is familiar with that scheme but it's been thrown at them more often in the last three weeks than any period I can remember other than like a playoff series.

50:40Bill Simmons:The Oklahoma city, the villains getting in a fight yesterday in Washington, pick it on a young team. Didn't see that one coming, but the Champagny brothers are not to be trifled with. And when anyone, whenever someone gets mushed in the face, it's, it's on like, it's on. Did you see the kid in the front row who was continuing to film film? And his facial expression turned from like, well, like joy, like, Oh my God, This is so cool to like, oh, to like, oh, horror, to horror, like to like, these guys are big and strong and they're falling on me right now. It was a great, great theater. It is funny because the announcer said that about the Champagny brother.

51:16Bill Simmons:They said that about the one that's on Washington. Justin. But I've heard that. I've heard that said about both of them. And there's this should almost be like an NBA team that we get to vote on. As you know, I've always wanted more teams than just all NBA, all rookie, all defense. I think we should have the not to be trifled with all NBA team. And it would be like both Champagny brothers would be on there. The James Johnson All-Stars. Yeah, yeah. James Johnson All-Stars. Just like, oh, no, don't do that to him. Because you can see it. Because the other J-Dub, he's starting and he gives him a couple shoves.

51:51Bill Simmons:And he gives him the third shove. And Champagny's like, dude, are we going to do this? Like, you could just tell he had a light in his eye ready to go. I honestly thought tonight somebody with Boston was going to lose it with Bones Highland because he was having a lot of fun at there. He pointed at people, pointed at Hugo. Yeah, that's you. You fouled me. I thought someone was going to deck him a little bit. Yeah, Wizard Sunder. I just didn't see the Wizard summoning the kind of spirit at this point in the season to actually get into an altercation. Well, I tweeted about it today. We're in an absolute death match where we have the Washington Wizards with 16 straight losses and the Pacers with 16 straight losses and a half win lead, 15 wins for the Pacers, 16 for Washington.

52:42Bill Simmons:And it's just a matter of who blinks first. The record is 28 for straight losses. And neither team can get to 28. They would have to end the season on a 27-game losing streak. but for Indiana, they don't play each other. They don't play each other for Indiana. The one is super important because that basically guarantees they get their pick, right? Cause the Clippers get it if it's five, six, seven, eight or nine. So if Indiana is one, even if three teams pass them in the lottery, they would still get four. So I don't think they want to win again. I mean, if you're one, you still have a 48 % chance of picking fifth.

53:21Is that true? Yeah.

53:22Bill Simmons:Oh wait, four teams can jump you. yeah oh well there goes that you're another classic simmons moment you're most likely according to tankathon i'm looking at it now you're most i forgot that we had four i thought it was three because detroit has jumped detroit has fallen from one to five before um in utah i believe utah last year fell one one to five um well utah ended up with ace ace is good which um that was another topic well i will hold on we're talking about hold on to that the wizards we're talking about the wizards i can i just i this is a very simmonsy soapbox to get on but i'm can i get on it for a second sure i've watched a couple of wizards toward you or no no i i've i've i've watched a couple of wizards games in the last 10 days because they were playing teams that i wanted to see including the pistons first game without kade um or first game since the collapse lung they've definitely entered the tanky stage where like i'm now i don't like the way they're playing and i'm worried that this is going to set back the development of some of their players every shot alex sar takes i'm like i don't that's like what why is he allowed to just dribble around and take a 21 foot like just inside the three-point arc um jumper let alone that like these other centers are just running him over on the way to the rim to the tune of 83 points and 36 points.

54:45Trey Johns, Trey Johns is fine. There are just a lot of possessions where I'm like, this is like, this is not good for anybody. It's not good. We've passed the point where like, oh, they're going to spread their wings and try new stuff. This is just bad stuff that's happening.

55:01Bill Simmons:I agree with you. I also don't love their guys. They have a lot of assets that are fine, but not like in Ringer 100, I think Trey might have been, Trey and Saar might have been the only two, and I don't even know Trey made it because we haven't, I guess we announced the list on Monday. Um, but like, I like Utah's set of assets way more, right? If you're just looking at like, which, which team's roster would you have there? Utah's like light years ahead of Minnesota for assets. Washington. Um, I'm sorry, Washington. And then, uh, Indiana is another one that I just, I like the way they're set up way more Brooklyn and Washington.

55:38Bill Simmons:I don't like the way they're set up. I don't really like the players they have. I don't think they're in good shape. And even if they get one of those, like Darren Peterson, you didn't watch NCA, but Darren Peterson lost today. Um, Kansas, uh, had a terrible, terrible loss. I saw the buzzer shot. I really wish Bill Self was in the NBA so you could do the Zach deep dive on him because he's one of my least favorite college coaches, but he somehow managed to get, give up a game losing layup. Is UCLA still in the tournament? You saw he's playing right now. Who's the coach, their coach? Mick Cronin.

56:11I didn't like him. I didn't like, based on one press conference where I was like, who are you, man?

56:17Bill Simmons:Get off your high horse. Well, he's about to get knocked out, so you're not going to have to see him anymore. But the point is, Peterson, whose high school tape was just better than his college, what I watched with college. I don't know how 100 % healthy he was. He was good. but the kid on Arkansas he knew nothing and you just watched both of them and you were like who should have a higher ceiling and literally you were just watching college this year and that's it you would think it was the kid from Arkansas Acuff that basically looks like he's going to be Kyrie the point is I don't I think it's going to go one and two, three, four, five, six I don't think there's any way to know who's going to be the best guy out of those things anyway.

57:03Bill Simmons:So we might have done all this tanking and whoever gets a six pith might end up with the best guy in the draft, which happens over and over again. Are you shocked that, um, are you shocked every time your email box has a medical update from the Washington Wizards, Trey Young medical update subject line, Anthony Davis medical update. I'm like, I'm almost impressed. I'm almost impressed with Anthony Davis. Like Trey played a couple of games. Yeah. I'm almost impressed with Anthony Davis that they bother sending the email that a, they remember they've acquired him and be that they even bother like this performative, like, yeah, we've done an update.

57:37He'll be reevaluated on the timetable TBD.

57:41Bill Simmons:Impingement is a big word this year. Yeah. Well, we, nobody knows what it means. They're impinging on my viewing habits. I have to watch their fucking basketball. We'll take a break for the pod. We'll keep going here on Netflix. This episode is brought to you by state farm upsets, buzzer beaters, game changing plays, what happens on the court keeps us on our toes and life isn't any different. That's where State Farm comes in with over 19 ,000 neighborhood agents for when you want to talk to a real person and easy to use digital tools. State Farm is there to help when facing the unpredictable because in life's uncertain moments, big or small, you need to know someone is ready to assist.

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1:00:50Bill Simmons:Jalen might actually be a first-team All-NBA guy. I mean, not if this loss kicks up such a panic level among Celtics Nation as it was earlier in this podcast. Just a tiny, tiny concern about the offense. How come Donovan Mitchell gets no respect? What does the guy have to do? He would be the other person. Okay. But how would he get it over Jalen if Boston's a two-seed and Cleveland's a four-seed and they've had the same kind of injury luck in their teams? I don't know. They have the same stats. can I ask you a quick all-nba I have a couple more off this is Jalen Johnson his second team in play for him now second team it's really just going to depend on the 65 game stuff that you mentioned because if if if Cade is out there's a first team spot I think that's going to open because I think I'm not sure he would have been the fifth first team guy on my ballot he probably would have been but it's I think he'll will be for the voting people it would have been for me um so that's open and then you mentioned all these other guys who might not get to 65 i might be out maxi maybe ant 50 50 but but even even if it's just cade one of the second team guys moves into first team so there's multiple second team spots that are open and like he's he's probably a third team lock is too strong but he's a he's been a strong third team all nba candidate for a while now they won 11 straight against nobody i mean they played a real team and they got smoked.

1:02:16Bill Simmons:But my thing is, I'm not voting for you for all NBA if I have a lot of good candidates and you don't have a winning record. They're at least going to be a top six or seven seed. So Kawhi's out for you if they're below 500?

1:02:29Because they are right now.

1:02:31Bill Simmons:Well, but I think if Kawhi comes back, they won't be below 500. Right? Well, he's been playing lately. He's back. No, but I'm saying if he plays the whole... Oh, if he finishes with 65. The above 500. If he finishes 65, they'll be over 500 would be my guess. Brunson's in there. Murray, I think we both have. Booker's an interesting one. Because Booker, if you're just going, who are the best 15 players I saw this year? He's probably one of them. But I don't know if he's going to get the games. And then that's really it. I had a rising, falling segment on my pod last week. Can I read you some of my risers and fallers that are in this third-team universe?

1:03:10Yeah. I think Brunson has dropped a little bit. but I think he's still safe as an all NBA player. Cat rising a little bit last month. Duran is Duran a lock now.

1:03:23Bill Simmons:I have. I just think there should be two pistons. If they get the one seat, I feel good about it. And I like having centers. I like to keep the traditional life if possible. Chet feels like he's about the same level as a case, but he'll get a lot of support. Maxie falling a little bit, but yeah, It might not make the limit anyway. Might not make the limit. And the body of work is strong. Well, I know who it is. Stephon Castle. That's your guy. So 17, 7, and 5 are his stats right now. And he's shooting 32 % from 3. Yeah, I want you to. I want to lay out because I want to hear it. I want to hear the case.

1:04:07Bill Simmons:If they get the one seed. I think there's a real case for it for having two spurs and having the guy who is, I think, one of the best two-way players in the league. And somebody that night after night sets the tone for them. I think other teams hate playing him. I think other guards and perimeter players do not like seeing him ever. He's clutch. He plays well with Wemby. He's durable. He's reliable. He's gotten better as the year went along. And I just think he's a badass. I think in a lot of ways he reminds me of the Dern case for Detroit. there's a physicality and an intensity and an anger that he, in a good way, an anger that he plays with that I think sets the tone for that team.

1:04:50Bill Simmons:I think him and Keldon Johnson are weirdly like the emotional fulcrums of that team. How hard and just what a maniac Castle is. And then Keldon Johnson, the energy he has and what a leader he is for them when you combine it with all the other stuff. So that would be the case. And I really value the durability and reliability. I think he's, I've just, I've never seen him have like a game where he looked lost or he looked like a second year guy. No, no. He just is locked in night after night after night. You can see it when you're at the game. You can just see how he handles warmups, like everything.

1:05:24Bill Simmons:He's just like, he's got it. So that'd be the case. I wish the stats were, I wish he was at 20 points a game. Cause then it's like a layup. 17 is a little low. Yes. Statistically, if you're going to comp him with Duren, I mean, Duren has the big man advantage where his field goal percentage is going to be better. He's going to gobble up rebounds, which is going to juice all the advanced numbers. I get all that, but there's almost no comparison just statistically between the two. The other thing is that his turnovers can get pretty high. He's averaging three a game, which is not bad, but he has some bad turnover games.

1:05:59Steph Castle was the only player CR and I had in common on our Marc Gasol All-Stars. I could not love watching the guy play basketball anymore. I could not be any higher on him. And, yeah, I mean, if you're the Spurs, what level of playoff disaster would it take for you at this point to even consider trading one of Harper and Castle for Giannis? I mean, these guys are so good that if I'm the Spurs, I'm not touching any of this stuff going forward, no matter what happens in the playoffs.

1:06:29Bill Simmons:Hanging up. I mean, Harper has been unbelievable thrust into the starting world the last couple of games. It's, like, scary how good he looks. you can't mess with having those three guys just as your foundation. You're good. Not messing with it. I can't, if we made a list of like how, first of all, they fit perfectly with the Wemby thing combined with Fox, just looking into him and adding him to this in the prime of his career. Right. And I think he's actually a really good fit for what they have and what they need. And there's some crunch time stuff with him that I like, but I just, I wouldn't touch it.

1:07:05Bill Simmons:I have a question off your question. What am I giving up for Giannis at this point? How many minor to semi-minor leg injuries can a guy have and be in their early 30s with a lot of miles and games in them where I start to get worried somebody's trying to sell me a car that they rolled back the odometer on? I'm just asking. It's a fair question. He can't play three straight weeks without getting hurt. At some point, should I be concerned about this? Yeah, we're not. Yeah, absolutely. The age, the jump shot, the injuries, not only now, but in three of the last five playoff years are a concern. I thought it was four.

1:07:54Maybe it's four of the last five. I don't know. I can't remember off the top of my head. They will get a mother load for him because there will be a— Mother load is strong. they will get a motherlode for him I'll stick with it because there will be a team I don't think they will it depends what your definition is I think the Heat would trade everything we thought they would trade at the trade deadline I don't see any of that being

1:08:22Bill Simmons:I'm just playing devil's advocate if we're in the front office and we're talking about this we have a chance to get Giannis he's a top 5 NBA player is he? he doesn't play Well, what? Okay. You're talking about him like he's Embiid. He's not, this is not like that. He's closer to Embiid than Jokic. He doesn't play. He gets hurt all the time. He's hurt all the time. This season has been. I would be really scared about this if I was, if I was, you're, so you're telling me if I'm Miami, I have to trade all of my assets and I have to sign you to a$280 million extension for four years. And I don't know if you can play.

1:08:59I've always been the conservative guy about trading everything for stars like I didn't love the Phoenix trade for Durant when everyone was yelling at me like ah it's Kevin Durant you gotta do it you get nobody it's Kevin Durant why are you overthinking this I'm like I don't know he's 35 and I'm worried that he's gonna get hurt and he has been hurt but you know I mean Giannis has played 60 70 he's played like 63 or more games in every season before this one and then a lot of 70s and 80s earlier in his career. Like he's been, now the timing of the injuries

1:09:31Bill Simmons:He's gotten hurt in two playoffs. has been bad. Is that bad luck? Is that durability? Like just body breaking down at the wrong time of year? I just, so, but how about this? I'm going to throw this at you too. So no one should trade for him? It's a stay away for you? Not saying that. Okay. But like Dwight Howard in 2012 and I remember, I don't know if you were working at Grantland at that point and he was going to be a free agent in 2013 and we were wondering, did this already peak? Physically, he's having back issues now. He's played a lot of minutes, a lot of miles. What am I trading for exactly?

1:10:10Bill Simmons:Shaq in the mid-2000s, I think, is another one. You get these big guys when they've been in the league 12, 13 years and they played 800, 900 games and they've been in a bunch of playoff games. Davis is another example recently. right? Davis 2012 draft. And now he's gone off a cliff. His body is breaking down. I would just be if I'm Miami trading everything I have and then having to sign up for four more years and not being a hundred percent sure if I'm getting the Giannis from 2022, much less 21, I'd be really nervous about it. I don't think I would do it. I would do it if I was golden state. And I'm like, Like, look, we're riding Steph into the ground, and this is our last chance.

1:10:54Bill Simmons:But I don't know if I would do it if I was Miami. So that's the thing. If you're talking about what Milwaukee is going to get if this ever happens, and at this point, it's definitely an if because, like, I just, who the hell knows anymore? Like, just throw Golden State. They're going to get all the picks from Golden State. They're going to get the four first-round picks. Do I feel good about that if I'm a Warriors fan? Do I think I have a chance to beat Golden State and to beat San Antonio OKC now? You just made the case, though. You feel good about it because at least Steph has... Oh, I'm saying I understand why they would do it.

1:11:27Bill Simmons:If I'm a Warriors fan, I don't know if I'd want them to do it. I would actually think about zagging the other way. I know trading Steph is... I know. I get it. But you notice what he said at his dad's thing. What did he say? I didn't see. They retired number 30 for his dad. and somebody asked him, like, you know, would you wear it if you came here? And he kind of didn't poo-poo the question. It was interesting. Eh, you know, it's not like Charlotte's not arrow pointing up. Why wouldn't you? Should Charlotte trade for Giannis and just go for everything next year?

1:12:05Bill Simmons:Why am I so nervous about his health? Am I just in the minority on this? Because he's injured. He's injured. He's played 36 games this year. he's come back three times and gotten injured almost immediately but if you're Charlotte you can't I mean you'd want to hang on to all three of your best young players and so because you have two of them on rookie deals and you can fit Giannis but what you know what so what am I getting if I'm Milwaukee all the picks sure what else we should have done this three minutes earlier this is another edition of what would Sam Presti do from america's favorite game show yeah sam prestey's running charlotte and he has a chance to trade three unprotected first plus that dallas pick they have that's like top two protected and they have one other good one right like miami's pick or something yeah they have a couple good ones and patchy and put miles bridges in it because he would fit right in with that goofy Milwaukee team and, uh, maybe like, I don't know the Grant Williams expiring and just go for it.

1:13:09Bill Simmons:I think Sam Presti would not do that. I think he would see like, let's, we, I love our foundation. Let's build from this. We can add, there's a Hartenstein Caruso type of move we can make. Let's keep doubling down. Let's add role players around our foundation. I don't think he would do it. I thought it was telling that Houston and San Antonio wanted no part of a Giannis trade in February. Well, and there's your other plot twist team. Houston is Houston's the desperation team. Well, their season has gone awry a little bit. I mean, every time you think it's gone awry, they go to Atlanta or the Atlanta comes in.

1:13:44I think it blows out. They blow out the Hawks wherever the game was. And they they they win some games. We're like, OK, like Durant's amazing. They're forceful. I'm in Thompson tips in a game winning shot here and there, whatever it is. and so they haven't fallen that far in the standings and now they're starting Reed Shepard which is something you and I have been talking about for a long time feels like that could give some oxygen to their offense but it does feel like it's been rickety I think I looked it up last week in their last like I want to say 40 games they have the number 22 offense in the NBA it's just not working at the level that it needs to work for them to actually compete

1:14:21Bill Simmons:the fact that Tari Eason just wasn't good this year I think combined with the fact that teams just leave him open. He can't make a shot. And then you have Thompson who can't shoot. So now I'm playing three on five, basically, with outside shooters. That's why Reid has to play. There's a lot of Eme questions percolating. I would say he's, if we did the, what do we have? What did you call the team we had for the James Johnson All-Stars? James Johnson All-Stars. If we had the hot seat coach All-Stars for the 25-26 season, I think Emei would definitely probably have the most votes. Ooh. Cause the clogged toilet offense, which the Celtic fans remember from the 22 season.

1:15:02Bill Simmons:Um, it's, it's definitely in full swing. Um, Giannis. So basically it's Giannis desperation would be the honest trade. I think, cause I don't think these teams like Charlotte, OKC, San Antonio, Houston. I don't think Houston may be the only one. Like, would you do Shangoon and some of your picks for Giannis? Of course. Minnesota was trying to line up everything to real, to make a real run at him at the trade deadline, which was a strange one. I mean, not that strange because it's Giannis, but like, but they were trying to line up all the, you know, all the deals that they would have to make to get the picks that the bucks would want.

1:15:38That was interesting to me. It was notable considering that we don't know what to make of the wolves right now.

1:15:45Bill Simmons:Also notable that it sent their team into like an up and down. You couldn't figure them out night to night. I'm sure the fact that half the team was involved in all those trade rumors probably wasn't helping them. There's also a Brooklyn, like, what do we even have here? But we have a lot of stuff. Like a fuck it? Yeah. And just like, we'll get another guy at some point or we'll try and get another guy at the same time. And maybe it's not a guy at the level that Giannis would dream of, but it's like a really good player and we'll make it work and whatever. I mean, who the hell knows? Anything could happen.

1:16:18Bill Simmons:the one team I wouldn't rule out for Giannis, which we did not mention the Utah Jazz because I think they are at the fuck it stage of all of this like they just basically rolled over for the last couple years have you forgotten that Jaron Jackson Jr. is on their team? I get it, and they have Markkinen and they have Ace Bailey, but my assumption would be maybe he's part of the trade or maybe marketing is part of the trade. One of those two guys with a lot of their picks. And they just try to talk Giannis in the Salt Lake, basically. Yeah, I mean, that's one. You've got to talk him into it before you make the trade, obviously.

1:16:57But what did you think of Ramona's piece where she got Wes Edens on the record saying what we all knew already to be true, but it was interesting that he said it. He's either going to sign an extension or we're going to trade him. We're not playing out the year with this. I thought it was notable that he said it, even though we've all been saying like the extension is, if he doesn't sign the extension, it's the same thing as demanding a trade. But the Bucs have essentially gone on record now and said, we don't have the wherewithal to play it out like the Thunder did with Durant or the Cavs did with Cleveland or the Cavs did with LeBron the first time in Cleveland.

1:17:32We're not doing that. So if he doesn't sign it, we're trading him for sure. Like they said that, so it's out there now.

1:17:38Bill Simmons:I do feel like the soap opera of the whole season and the way Giannis kind of handled it started to wear everybody down by the end was my guess. It's like you say you don't want to get traded but then another thing comes out but you also basically saying, it's like a relationship where you're like I'm not breaking up with you but if you want to break up with me, tell me. And that's kind of what's been going on for nine months. I don't think it's been great. And the Knicks would be the other team. A terrible Knicks exit combined with Giannis being the panic move this summer. I remain strangely optimistic about the Knicks.

1:18:20I can't, like, I don't even understand. I mean, their on-paper dossier is rock solid, yet they've won six games in a row. When it feels bad, it feels real bad. But I remain on why can't the Knicks make the finals? Like, I'm in. I'm still in.

1:18:42Bill Simmons:I don't want to see them as a Celtic fan. It's funny that it worked out the best for Cleveland, who's just going to settle in at fourth place. They're going to get to play Toronto in round one, which is a team I think everybody would want to play. And then they have Detroit in round two, a team that they know they can beat. And that would be their path. And let the Celtics and Knicks just beat the hell out of each other. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. You know, with just one trip to Whole Foods, you can travel the world. First stop, discover the taste of the Mediterranean with big sales on brands like De Seco, or Reos, and San Pellegrino.

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1:20:35Bill Simmons:last thing we're gonna do before we go the winners of 2026 oh yeah and I had a couple things for this and by winners it's not like Wemby's a winner it's not like the usual NBA ones the reason I thought of this was you know obviously I've been watching a lot of Charlotte I talked to the bandwagon people by the way you're still not allowed on been watching them all year I hope they drive their bandwagon more safely than the LaMelo drives his freaking tank. So now you're going to have Hornets Reddit mad at you. But I think LaMelo is a real winner this season. He's on my list. I wrote down, when you gave me this assignment two hours before the podcast, I wrote down some names.

1:21:20LaMelo Ball, in bold, on my list. He's a winner. Oh, it turns out he's good. Yeah, he's been good the whole time.

1:21:28Bill Simmons:So he was the reason I thought of this idea. I love that he has... So his stats, if you look at them, he's actually had seasons with better stats. This is a classic eye test. You have to watch it. I love the way he's playing. And I said this last week and I'm going to say it again. Like there's real thoughtfulness in how he's playing the point guard position now and how he's not as risky and kind of reckless as he was. He doesn't seem like he's in like an N1 tournament anymore. and there's a wherewithal with what he's doing now and how he understands. They have these two incredible wings. Miller and Knipple together.

1:22:07Bill Simmons:I mean, Knipple has a chance to get 300 made threes, which would be nuts. Miller, when you watch him, it's like this is like the best version of Paul George that we had in the 2010s, basically, night after night. And Lamella's really good at using them, at using Diabate, and he just knows how to drive the car. And I didn't think he had it in him. Ooh, does he? Well, he doesn't know how to drive his car. He knows how to drive the Hornets car. I didn't think he had it in him. It's after six years. To me, the point guard position, it's either if you haven't shown me it, I don't, I'm not going to believe in it.

1:22:41See, and I feel the same, but also almost the opposite in that I think everybody got so disgusted with the five or six crazy things he would do every game that they unjustifiably dismissed all the statistical indicators that he was actually good and actually was like driving Charlotte's offense at a high level when he was on the floor because his plays of insanity were so disgusting to basketball purists and not like they were right. I think that they just were fed up with him as a player. And they were in the play-in tournament. Those are things that happened. They had like 500-ish seasons with Lamello and not good teams.

1:23:27He's always been good, but now he's found the right balance in his game that other people, that everyone is sort of agreeing. Okay, yeah, he's actually a helpful NBA player.

1:23:37Bill Simmons:Really impressed. Whereas I think he has been the whole time. But yeah, he's on my winner's list for exactly these reasons. He's basically the last, like since the All-Star break, he's making four threes a game. He's played. He's played 61 games. That's big. and he's basically 20 and 7 every night and I don't think he really cares how many points he scores which is the other thing I like I think he's just doing the plays that help them win and at the end of games if he needs to beat somebody off the dribble they're really good it's amazing that they're gonna probably be a 9 or a 10 seed because the East 45 wins is gonna be a 10 seed it looks like they have a chance to maybe move up if a couple teams fall but I really hope they make the playoffs because I think they'd be an incredibly fun eight seed.

1:24:22They're only two games out of six in the loss column. There's a lot. Miami has lost four in a row. The Magic have lost four in a row. Teams are starting to fall back into their range. Even the Hawks, who are six, are only two games ahead of them.

1:24:37Bill Simmons:Jamal Mosley is on my hot seat coach. All-star team, by the way. I have a couple more winners. You give me a winner. What do you have? Jamal Murray. We're not that far removed from a lot of hand-wringing over Jamal Murray's contract. Like, oh, did they overdo this? Was he really a max guy? Sensational season. Stamped himself. Winner. I agree. I remember beginning of last year, after he did that extension, it kicked in. Real fear that the yokage era had been completely blown. That if this guy wasn't coming off the Olympics, too. That this guy's going to get his shit together? It was ugly. The Olympics was ugly.

1:25:19Bill Simmons:My next winner. Brandon Ingram. He's on my list too. Scottie Barnes slash Brandon Ingram are co-winners on my list. So, you know, you go back and you look at Brandon Ingram stats and they've been pretty steady this entire decade. Like he's been between 20 and 23 points a game. His field goal stuff's around the same. But I think this was a combo of the Team USA thing when he basically left the team, whatever happened, and that they were really sour on him and vice versa. and then you know last year didn't get the contract he wanted and nobody wanted to trade for him and at some point you get the stink on you like what golden state was the one team that should have traded for him but they had coached him in team usa and wanted no part of him and nobody else really wanted him and we end up with this thing where he gets traded toronto rich talks them into somehow signing him to a pretty sizable extension with no other bidders and all of it seemed insane.

1:26:15Bill Simmons:You watch the games. He's one of the more reliable end of games, throw him the ball, get us a basket. He's got that around the foul line move when he bounces off somebody to create space and has that little 15-footer. It's kind of Durant-ish, honestly. I've been really impressed. Yeah, I mean, both of them, because there was a lot of Scotty Barnes skepticism too that he deserved the no-brainer rookie max. both successful seasons complement each other i think in the ways that toronto's front office thought they would in that in that scotty barnes is not the kind of end of game score that you are describing and so we need to get someone who is um and yet like i had jack armstrong on my show a couple weeks ago yeah that was good like where is all this actually leading like neither one of them is quite as good as you need that player in that role to be for a team to really get anywhere but They're solid, but I just don't see a pathway for this particular roster to go super far.

1:27:15But it's a good roster. RJ Barrett's good. Quickly's been pretty good for the last couple months. It's a 45-win roster.

1:27:21Bill Simmons:Yeah. Maybe that's a Giannis team, too, this summer. Oh, yeah. They've been on the list. That's true. Am I up or are you up? You're up. I can go, I mean, Bones Island. Bones Island is a winner. He's on my list. Bones Howland's back in. I'm struggling because the name on the top of my list, I can't even read what my handwriting. Oh, Mitch Johnson. Not a great one, but people were like, who is this guy? What do we think of him? And now we're like, yes, this guy's pretty good. Oh, I think that's a really good one. All right, I have a couple more. Cheap centers. I think we're having a cheap center renaissance led by Donovan Klingin, who multiple teams passed on in that draft, who's now averaging 12 and 12 every game.

1:28:11Bill Simmons:He's good. He's third in the league in rebounding. And I think he's like third or fourth in blocks. He's 2.3 blocks a game. But he's just like a legitimate guy. Cata is the Celtics version of that. Diabate, a.k.a. Moose. We call him Moose now in Hornets Nation. But he's basically been a double-double for three months. And then the other one that's in there is Mark Williams, who trade veto, Phoenix kind of grabs them. And he's another one that's like 11 and eight. But there's these guys out there, and this goes back to what we talked about in the Worst Contracts podcast about, I just don't want to pay$30 million to a center when I feel like I can find these guys.

1:28:52Bill Simmons:The Celtics are paying Cata and Garza$3 million a year, $4 million a year total. And they're putting up relatively neighborhood numbers to some of these guys that are$30 million,$28 million,$25 million. Cheap centers are making a comeback. Can I nominate a few more guys for that list? Yeah. Let's go.

1:29:16Bill Simmons:Let's see. Mamu can be in there even though he's not technically a center. He's a center-ish. He's a center sometimes and sometimes not a center. Jock Landale, throw him. Sure. Give him a little love. Jalen Smith, give him a little love. just throwing good leather guys. Cornette, is he outpriced this range? He's outpriced it, but he's spiritually still counts. The other son, Oso Iguodaro, is legit good and has been holding down the four for Mark Williams for a bit now. And by the Klingon, ain't going to be cheap much longer because if he keeps playing like this, he's going to make a lot of money on his next contract.

1:29:56Bill Simmons:I actually had Ishbia as a winner because I think they salvaged a truly awful situation with a team that's exceedingly watchable night after night. And they have a lot of, it's weird, kind of, they're not assets, but they're kind of semi-assets. But like you mentioned, Iguodaro, Goodwin, Dunn, that Fleming, I think, has a chance to be somebody. Gillespie, if you catch Gillespie on the right night, he looks like a dominant NCAA point card. Remember, two weeks ago, you asked, just like, give me some random buy low NBA stocks, just off the cuff. I had no prep for it. And I mentioned model watch and I'd still buy the guy we should have bought.

1:30:38And now the price has gone up since then, but we should still buy his Fleming. That guy, that guy's got a shot. Yeah.

1:30:44Bill Simmons:Uh, I have two more winners. Nico Harrison. I'm interested. He did it. There's never been a worse sports trade. We thought last year it was possible. We were hoping, but there was still a chance, like maybe Davis will be really good on Dallas. Well, what happens when AD gets healthy? And then they give AD away. And then it was, yeah, but you know, you watch Luke on LA, you can kind of see what Nico was thinking. And now on March 22nd, 2026, it's the worst trade anyone's ever made. It actually would be a fun exercise to try to engineer similar trades? Like what would be an equivalent trade that if it happened next February, it'd be like, wait, did Timberwolves traded Anthony Edwards for, I mean, I'm not even sure who it'd be.

1:31:40Like there's gotta be like a 30-year-old, like pretty good player. And it comes out, they're like, yeah, we didn't like Ant's attitude about this and that. You would struggle to actually accomplish a similar trade.

1:31:53Bill Simmons:the next Luka trade would probably be Anthony Edwards or who would be like the return piece like you know wait what the I don't even want to put that I don't even want to put it on anyone I was going to say the name of a player that's the thing first of all you can't recreate this trade you can't have a doppelganger for it because it's undoppelganger girl bull it'll never happen again there's never will ever be a worse sports trade and the only thing that will make it funnier is that the Lakers make like the Western finals and Lucas just destroying everybody. Like he should come to a game. Like I would zag the other way, come to a Laker game, bathe in the applause, bathe in the adoration, accept the thank yous from the Laker, from the Laker fans.

1:32:38Bill Simmons:Right. Instead of being booed and humiliated in Dallas, zag the other way. What if you made this other fan base really happy, go accept their congratulations. What if it's all a long con where he's been colluding with Mark Walter for years and this was his move to eventually - It's a Scooby-Doo ending? Yeah, to replace Palenka in the end. What if it's all been part of a long scheme? That would be one of the biggest scandals in NBA history. We have fired Rob Palenka and we've replaced him with Nico Harrison and he pulls off his Mavs pullover. I have one more. I have two more, actually. The rookie class of 25.

1:33:23Bill Simmons:No, because I'll go even further. Because now that it looks like Ace is really good, we might have a five for five with the rookie class. Top five. And I was going, yeah, top five where we have no Darkos, no even, I hate saying this, but Scoots. And I'm really watching Scoot carefully, hoping for the... There's something there. There's something there. I just, we're getting to the point that it's going to be safe pretty soon to conclude that it's not number two pick something. It could be good NBA player or something, but it might not be ever number two pick something. He has a really, really high defensive guard ceiling.

1:34:01Bill Simmons:I don't know if you've picked that up at all. Like, I think he's a physical defender who actually cares about guarding people. He can beat people off the dribble and get to the basket. at what he's not is what I thought he was going to be, which is like a Derek Rose type of athlete getting to the rim. And that's not, he's not a finisher like that. He actually overcomplicates it at the rim sometimes. Yeah. And I think that was the miss, but, um, the 96 class Iverson can be Sharif, Stefan Marbury, Ray Allen. That's a five for five basically. And then 84 had Hakeem Bowie, MJ Perkins, Barkley Bowie did play.

1:34:37Bill Simmons:I know he shouldn't have gone second and it was a ridiculous pick, but he was a pretty good center for a decade. He ended up playing 700 games or something. I think with this 5-for-5 flag car per Vijay Khan ace, ace is probably the wild card, but I think ace is going to be good. If ace is the scariest out of the five, that's a pretty good five. I've liked almost everything about this ace-bailey season. Even when he wasn't scoring much, I liked the way that he was approaching the game. It was completely the opposite of what I expected based on what I had heard of the Rutgers thing and just everything was I thought he was going to come in and just chuck up a bunch of bad shots and he did not play like that at all.

1:35:18He tried hard on defense. He would make the extra pass. He was like totally committed to all the things that the Jazz wanted him to be committed to and then the last couple of months that they've tanked and tanked and tanked. They've been like just go ahead man. Shoot some shots. Create some shots and he's good at that stuff. Yeah. Work on your game.

1:35:34Bill Simmons:Jalen would be the last one just the season he's having but we don't need to talk about him. And then my last, last, last winner, Adam Silver pushing this expansion thing when I don't think it's a slam dunk. They have the 23 votes. And I think there's some owners that are like, what the fuck? Including Vegas is 90 minutes from Utah.

1:36:01Bill Simmons:That would be like if they put an expansion team in the Clippers in San Diego. Do you think the Clippers and Lakers would care about that? Are there two cities that are closer together geographically and further apart culturally? Is that even possible? That's true. But I said this the other day on Thursday's pod, and we didn't talk about it. But I thought the timing of that announcement as a Monday. You know, Monday is when the Monday morning you give somebody something because you want the story to blow up and set the tone for the week. Timing of it was interesting. I don't know if they have the votes and it felt like they wanted to, it almost felt like one of these where you lick your finger and you put it up in the air and you kind of see what the response is.

1:36:46Bill Simmons:And most of the response was pretty positive. I was probably one of the most negative ones because I think it's ridiculous. I don't think they should be adding two teams when I would first look at relocation. I also don't know why Vegas should have a team. Nobody's explained that to me. The track record of franchises there does not sell itself to you? I just think for, to be the fifth professional team, it's not a huge market. And I'm not really sure what Vegas is going to look like 10 years from now, whether it's better or worse. But why wouldn't Nashville have a team? If we're just doing this over again, just to be clear, Seattle should have a team.

1:37:27Bill Simmons:But I've been saying that for 20 years. People know where I stand on Seattle. Seattle should have a team. I don't know if we have to have expansion to get Seattle a team when I think there's a couple franchises that we have to really seriously look at. And it doesn't seem like they 100 % want to have that conversation because they'd rather get the expansion fees. So, which is, this is what I said Thursday. It's a pure money grab. This is a money grab. It's not good for the league. I don't think expansion is good for the league. I'm not, well, from the perspective purely of talent dilution, I actually am not worried about that.

1:37:58I think there is talent for 32 teams. You might have to.

1:38:02Bill Simmons:I'm not worried about the talent part. I'm worried about what we're seeing now with two more teams that are tanking. And like basketball today, there was one good game the whole day. Because you're just throwing away half the schedule every day when these nine teams that don't give a shit. Well, they got to do their best to fix the problem A before they introduce problem B. And I think they know that. But every time they've tried to fix problem A, they've just created a different version of problem A. And so that's the challenge for them is can they actually do this in a way that minimize is losing on purpose because...

1:38:37Bill Simmons:Doesn't it make sense to fix that before we talk about adding two teams? I am all for like, if you have a real solution for this, do that and then let's add 32 because we do have enough players. I think we do have enough players. But I don't think the league should have 32 teams the way we are currently set up. It doesn't make sense to me. I hope that it is a driver of discussions on the tanking issue and the schedule issue. I hope that if the NBA is going to do this and now you have to rearrange the conferences or at least move one team east, you have to rearrange the schedule a little bit. Let's have a serious conversation then.

1:39:13What should the schedule actually look like? How many games should it be? We're all going to get, all the owners are going to get a gazillion dollars in expansion fees. Can we now have a serious discussion about how many games do we really want to play?

1:39:26Bill Simmons:The players aren't going to get that money though. It's true. So if you're cutting the games, you would have to make that up to the players. That's true. Because if you have 32 teams, now you have the easiest possible 71-game schedule. Sitting right there for you. It's four A-team divisions. You all play each other twice. And then you have that third set of games against your division. You're at 71 games, and we're good to go. And I think everybody would be happy with that. Sounds like you're pro expansion. I'm just not... I'm not anti... Most of the reasons people are anti are either, well, we've got to solve the thinking problem first.

1:40:03And I think they know that. Or B, well, it's just going to be bad teams. There's not enough talent. The talent's going to be spread too thin. And I just don't, I have not seen evidence of the second part being true.

1:40:14Bill Simmons:Okay. All right. That's it for the pod. I had a good time. So we got to thank State Farm because this was a live one on Netflix and they were gracious enough to be involved with that one. Zach Lowe is going to be back Tuesday and Thursday. I have a new rewatchables coming tomorrow, which is going to be the nice guys. You like the nice guys? Love the nice guys. It was the movie that really, I don't know if I had seen Gosling and anything funny before that. And I was like, oh my God, this guy's unbelievable. I forgot to set you up for your weekend, but you're going to have to do that on your pod.

1:40:48Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's fine. It's good. Save it for whoever you have. Yeah, you had some sort of funny story. Iverson, there's an Iverson side plot that as well. We just bought, and I did not run into Alan Iverson. I bid on a jersey at Mystic Aquarium and we'll leave it at that. All right, we'll find out on Zach Lowe's pod on Tuesday what happened. Zach, good to see you as always. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. And I will see you on this podcast late Tuesday. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming.

1:41:21Bill Simmons:Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York for Louisiana. Call 877-770-7867. This episode is brought to you by TaxAct. Like an expert coach, TaxAct offers step-by-step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes. Get tips along the way, add expert assist to talk to tax experts and let our experts do your taxes for you with expert full service.

1:42:05Bill Simmons:Tax Act helps you find the deductions and credits you deserve so you can get them over with. Visit taxact.com to learn more. Conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. Two teams, one cup. The primetime stage is set for the TGL presented by SoFi Finals. Los Angeles Golf Club versus Tigers Jupiter Lynx. Keep up. It's playoffs. Tune in Monday, March 23rd, 9pm Eastern on ESPN2, and Tuesday, March 24th, 7pm Eastern on ESPN and on the ESPN app.