March Madness Takes, NBA Lottery Debates, and Best NFL Draft Story Lines With J. Kyle Mann and Todd McShay

22:38I mean, you're in the heat of the Shaq era where teams are just trying to load up. We had a lot of overlapping things that I think hurt the skill level in the league where teams were really overdrafting to kind of get bodies to play Shaq. And then there was the high schooler thing going on. So you had the Kwamis and the Tyson Chandlers and the Eddie Currys. And it's like Tyson ended up being a good player, but Eddie... Bender. All kinds of problems. Yeah, Jonathan Bender was a bad one. So that was tough because they had a lot of high picks during that time. Two great draft questions for you from Brian Noakes.

23:09Bill Simmons:Hypothetically, would you rather have Wemby or the top two picks in this draft? I mean, Wemby by far. Here's a better question. Wemby are the top three picks in this draft. I'd still take Wemby. Wemby. He's on a GOAT arc. You take the GOAT arc. Wemby are the top four picks of the draft. I get all of them. I could have, I can even have Caleb Wilson. Man. I still, I still would take Wemby. Peterson, Boozer, DeBonsa, and we'll say Wilson. Is that, is that, what kind of a core is that? Like, do you think, like, if you took that four and compared that to the cores in the rest of the league that we really like, I'm trying to think, where would that rank?

23:50I mean, it'd be up there. I mean, that would be the best. That'd probably be the best young core. Aside from the Spurs, I'm trying to think of the other ones. Yeah. Well, the answer is the top five picks of this draft.

24:03Bill Simmons:Now you have my attention because now I could have Peterson and Acuff. I could have Caleb Wilson, DeBansa, and Boozer. I just have an entire starting five for Wimby. Now I'm thinking about it. I don't know, man. I mean, the only thing that could creep in is you're just like, all right, there is the little voice in the room that's like Wimby's. the seven foot seven guy might get hurt you never know yeah yeah because we we were doing like the the redraft for the past few drafts and i just as an exercise ran them through this like rubric rubric that i've been doing lately where i just say like is they are they a can you hunt them in switches do they fit this play style are they uh are they a spacer are they a room protector and when we got a perfect score other than and i was going through everything i was just like i can't shoulder shrugging it but i was like the one one thing that i have in there is volatility rating and I was like, Wimby can't have a perfect volatility rating because everywhere else is good.

25:00But it's like, there is that little sneaky thing of like you were saying, it's just like durability. You know, he's already encountered some of that. That'd be the only thing, man. Because like otherwise, Wimby's impact is just, it's been belabored at this point, but it's unbelievable.

25:15Bill Simmons:Another Spurs question. Elliot Gold wants to know, he said he hasn't heard anyone talk about this and I know we haven't talked about it on the pod. if San Antonio could do it over again, would they take Khan or VJ? I don't think VJ is in the conversation over Dylan Harper, knowing what they know now. So the question for me would be Khan because they have Fox and Castle as two ball handlers. And then you're just adding this incredible shooter and guy who knows how to play with or without the ball. I think they would run it back with Harper. And I think Harper is that special. But I also don't think they probably thought Khan was going to be this good right away.

25:54Bill Simmons:But I think Harper with Wemby, I think is slightly more interesting. Like this incredible physical inside-outside guard who's going to be able to learn how to shoot threes soon. And I think that's where you'd want to be with Castle. If that's about those three, I think I like that three more than Castle, Khan, and Wemby, but slightly, right? Yeah. I mean, it's a no-lose, obviously. I mean, you're going to, Khan would help them. I remember in the early mocks, I had Khan getting drafted, like, picked to the Spurs. And I talked myself out of it because I was just like, they just don't really go with guys like that.

26:28They love to go with the big, switchy, physical, athletic guys. And they're like, the skill stuff we think will come around. Yeah, man. I mean, I think Dylan has a chance to be like a first-team all-NBA guy. I mean, he could flirt with, like, he's a two-way player. You know, gets just, yeah, he's a special guy, special talent.

26:46Bill Simmons:I get this email a lot. This one's from Ian W. you would you ever consider becoming the gm of the holy cross basketball team especially with dame lillard running weber state and feuding with woosh curry's assistant gm of davidson woosh i would i would not do that because i would get too into it i think it would ruin all the other stuff i'm doing i would just become obsessed with trying to find guys it sounds like a tap a little bit to woosh too uh but i no thank you i don't i would not want to be in the nil world uh i think one One year, one year and we film it. You wouldn't do it? I think that's the only way you would do it if it's like a documentary and a book and you're, because Holy Cross would be the team to do it because there's no reason they couldn't beat Gonzaga in the East.

27:30Bill Simmons:Like they really could. There's a New England school that should be awesome, that should just be cherry picking awesome New England kids every year and has a killer coach and, you know, good education, but you're just like the school in New England. It doesn't exist. so you don't countst john's or is you i mean i'm saying i'm saying like going from like past connecticut you're you're talking about massachusetts rhode allen um maine new hampshire vermont basically like that part of the country but really massachusetts yeah where it's like it would be conceivable to build a powerhouse up so debansa could be be like i know by is paying me but i've always dreamed of playing here and playing at home and that doesn't really exist I'd love to see it did you watch the White Shadow?

28:22no I never that feels like core curriculum but I haven't

28:26Bill Simmons:I'll end with one goofy one from Ethan from Houston if the Paul George suspension is actually helping the Sixers avoid the luxury tax is the next logical step for the Kings to plant something in Zach Levine's suitcase obviously no team would do this I was thinking no plan something well listen if there was like a landman type show for the nba like a completely insane show where crazy stuff happened this would be a season one kind of cliffhanger plot right where the gm's like we gotta we gotta get under the salary cap what are we gonna do people start looking at each other it's like we gotta we put you gotta put something in his suitcase we got this is what we at because that would happen on like a paramount show yeah so or as you say the the industry guy who gets them back to the apartment, just keeps turning the stereo up.

29:15Industry. Calls the cops.

29:17Bill Simmons:The industry slash Paramount version of an NBA show. I think that actually would happen. All right. We're going to take a break and then we're going to talk college. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Upsets, buzzer beaters, game-changing plays. What happens on the court keeps us on our toes. And life isn't any different. That's where State Farm comes in. With over 19 ,000 neighborhood agents for when you want to talk to a real person and easy to use digital tools. State Farm is there to help when facing the unpredictable because in life's uncertain moments, big or small, you need to know someone is ready to assist.

29:54Bill Simmons:Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. All right, March Madness. you love it Kyle man it was a really good first weekend with a lot of chalk but also it checked all my boxes because I got to watch some good players I got some terrible coaching like always Bill Self who's become I think my least favorite college coach for certain no rational reason for it for some reason he annoys me they blew it again and we have some great games including this weekend where we have Arkansas versus Arizona we have Illinois versus Houston we have St.

30:41Bill Simmons:John's versus Duke and we have Bama versus Michigan I honestly think those are four must watch games like even if you're an NBA fan you're not really watching college those four are like awesome games and in general I feel like the level of basketball is just higher than it used to be and we've talked about that with Tate on Sunday that we have better guards we just have more talent what's your favorite out of those four games what are the one that what's the one that you can't wait for? Oh, that is really hard to pick. I was going to say that D.C. Regional is going to be incredible with UConn and Michigan State and then Duke and St.

31:15John's. I mean, the narratives in Duke St. John's are so great. I mean, Patino talking about, you know, redemption for the Leitner shot. Granted, Patino's played Duke in the tournament before on their way to their 2013 title. I mean, the two that jumped to me, Arizona-Arkansas, I think, is going to be very fun and athletic. I can't wait. It's going to be very fun. Do you want to just start there?

31:37Bill Simmons:you think Burry's is going to guard Acuff? Yeah, I do. I think that's going to be... I can't remember an actual draft pick spot being on the line for a game. Because as I told you over and over again, I think those are the two choices for five. I felt that way for weeks. And I actually would give a slight edge to Burry's just because I think it's harder to find guys like that. And this is such a point guard draft. A lot of teams already have a point guard. Burry's just like, you just know what he is. And even I liked what he did over the weekend. It was five for seven. He made the biggest shot of the game.

32:18Bill Simmons:But him trying to guard Acuff is going to tell us a lot. And then Acuff, who's on just a fucking heater at this point, trying to navigate that, knowing that a team's going to have five days to think about how to stop him. I can't wait for that game. Yeah, Acuff versus, I think the narrative for that game is going to be, just through the draft lens, I mean, Acuff versus Arizona's length is going to be the story because Arizona has a lot of size and strength. Arkansas is explosive and long and lanky, but they're not as beefy as Arizona. They have Krivas, who's like 7 '2". He's gigantic. Koa Pete, who's probably a first-rounder.

32:53Tobe Awaka is another guy who's a big, strong dude. I think that's going to be the thing to watch. I was pulling up in preparation for this, just thinking about what to watch for, you know, his finishing is the thing that I'm going to be looking for him in the paint, because I looked at the teams, I kind of cherry picked it. I mean, they played a great schedule this year. They played a lot of teams with a lot of size, but I filtered for half court finishes at the rim and he had a hard time on synergy. It was like 34.8 % at the rim. So I want to see him use his left hand in the pain. I want to see him draw contact, get the line, those kinds of things.

33:27Because when he plays against bigger players, he kind of has a tendency to just kind of like, pray and throw it over the top of them as opposed to he's not super creative. But like we talked about, he has all those other pluses. You're nitpicking him. And I think that's the basis for critiquing whether or not he can be a star. He's got to get that paint production up, I think, to validate that side of the argument. But man, he's just such a great game manager, shoots the shit out of the ball. It's going to be a really fun matchup.

33:55Bill Simmons:Yeah, I've noticed the rim stuff too. And that's where, because he really does remind me of Kyrie with a lot of the stuff he does. The one part where it falls apart is Kyrie would have that double clutch ability and that bang off. And he would always finish with a good shot. A cup sometimes doesn't. But I also feel like, you know, he's been at the same college for less than a year. He's got Calipari as his coach. They kind of fall into ruts with him where he's just like driving right every time. And you kind of know it's coming. They don't mix it up and have him coming out, getting the ball in different spots.

34:29Bill Simmons:A lot of times it's just, he's just driving right. And then teams overplay him and then he'll cross over and try to get a little floater. I feel like there's more there is my point. I don't, I think when, if you put him on a really smart team, they'll be like, look, this is what happens when you do this. This is what we think you should do instead of this. Like the sky's the limit. And then the defense stuff, I just don't worry about with him. Like, did we talk about Kyrie's defense when he was coming in the league? Like we, I worry about the defense. No, it's not going to be great. But you can win with guys who are elite offensive guys who aren't that good on defense.

35:07Bill Simmons:We've seen it. Yeah, they've got to be pretty special. It's tough, man. But I think he's pretty special is my point. Yeah. That can't be the reason not to take him fifth. I think it's more a worry of how spectacular offensively you take the rim stuff like I'm talking about because I think that is going to be an issue if people can run him off the line. I'm not as ready to say, to buy into the superstar talk and go as crazy as some of the other people are right now. I find myself on the little more pessimistic side of that because of the things we talk about. And then if you add, you've got to build around protecting him defensively.

35:46Granted, I think, like we were talking about on the last episode, I think he's going to scale into a different type of role in the NBA because on this Arkansas team, man, he's making the food for everybody and nobody's making food for him. Like he's just making all the meals and it's like, there's nothing easy. Like there might be a broken play where it comes to him and he bangs a three or whatever it is. But I think in an NBA offense where he's given more like catch and shoot things, he'll have a lot of opportunities to produce. I'm just like him driving a team as the star. I think there's just a lot of kind of outlying questions, outstanding balance on that conversation for me.

36:19Bill Simmons:I'm glad you made that point because I think he does so much offensively for this team. you have to factor that in the defense. And if your life's easier, it's a little easier to be a two-way guy. Listen, he could look really bad in this Arizona game. This is the right kind of team, I think, to just throw multiple waves of defenders on him, scout him the right way, and this could be like a six for 21. On the other hand, he's a pretty special player. And this could be a case of like, despite how good this Arizona team is, he just goes on another heater. I don't know. The stuff he's doing as a freshman, which doesn't have a lot of parallel in the history of the tournament, they were saying Fox was the last guy who had points like this.

37:06Bill Simmons:To me, worst case scenario, he's in that Fox Garland range as a pro. I think he could be as good as Darius Garland and that's maybe where the floor is. right yeah and that's i like darius garland that's a really good outcome for the sixth pick in the draft you know yeah absolutely um and those guys end up being it's like the conversation kind of flows the same way where we're like okay this guy's probably the center of a team and you you think about the warts coming in a lot of time i mean those guys end up going to teams that don't have it going like the calves at the time the kings at the time and this time and any time obviously but um they get a chance to have their own team and and they do have like a lot of production and output and everything but the warts kind of come you know they come back eventually and then we kind of resettle you into like okay you're a really good player but we can't live or die with your ability to sort of like feed everybody all the time and be efficient and we protect you on defense and things like that um i think you're right about that in terms of what type of uh what type of player he's going to be i mean like the so i'm higher on him than you are I would say you're a little higher than me and I think I'm just in general in the overall conversation I find myself being a little more worried than other people are about some of these things but you're talking about the loser leaves town thing the Fox Alonzo thing was the last that was that was one of the better ones we've ever had right those two facing off and an awesome game too like an actual memorable March Madness game yeah I worry about the finishing stuff a little bit with him too And I worry about that more than the defense just because I saw the same thing you did, that it sometimes looks bad and predictable.

38:48Bill Simmons:And we're watching with Scoot right now. The Scoot's as good of an athlete as he is. His finishing just isn't good enough. And I thought he was going to be better as a pro just being like this Derrick Rose type. But the difference between Rose, Westbrook, pick a guy who was awesome in the pros was they were able to finish it at the rim. I mean, going way back, this was the Bassey-Telfair thing. Bassey-Telfair. Whoa, look at him. And then it's like, yeah, this guy has no chance when he's driving the basket. This is not happening. I don't think A-Cup's going to do that. But Arizona will be a good test.

39:22Bill Simmons:So Bama, Michigan. Oh, man, yeah. This is where our guy, this could be. First of all, I think Bama could absolutely win this game. They could. They're 11-1 to make the Final Four. I think that's the best bet of all these calls. I don't know if it'll happen, but I know the odds are better than 11-1. They could win two games in a row and make the Final Four. And our guy, the lost guard in this draft, who might end up falling to 20 and being awesome, this is going to be a really good stage for him. Yeah, I've been such a fan of LeBaron Phylon for such a long time. I got to see him play in a showcase near my house for the first time, and that was kind of when the hearts over the eyes kind of popped out.

40:01You were texting me about him in November. I was going to say of like 2023, maybe. He's just, he's a winner, man. We were talking about Mike Conley earlier. He has a lot of MFR in him, but he's not as passive as Conley, but he has a lot of the adhesive kind of things that fall between the wrinkles of a team. And this makes it, he just makes things work. He's a little bigger than I think people realize. He's like 6 '3 and a half, 6 '4. He's just, he's a lot lower and slinkier than Acuff. He's not as like solidly built, but he just, he's improved his shooting. he's very very clever he has like rondo-y kind of qualities at times to me where um he just picks his spots really well uh good passer he had like a he had you would have you would have had i need to send you this clip he had a touch a touch pass assist off of a rebound where he just lightly tapped it to one of his teammates like extended and i i remember thinking i was like uh yeah that that was a one million percent of larry bird but oh my god i loved it the problem with it is like Michigan just chokes people out.

41:00They just get you in a headlock. I get it. And then you make mistakes. Yeah, it's going to be tough.

41:05Bill Simmons:Well, you have him 12th on your big board right now. Which, where do we have him? He definitely moved up, right? Was he in the teens? From win to win. That's the first outing. So he hasn't moved this year. He was on our board last year really high, actually. I don't remember. I'm looking at the thing now because Amet's 14 now. and I'm just, I'm betting on Phylon over Amet 100 times out of 100. Just, all due respect to Amet, but, yeah. I just, come on. What are we doing? The Iowa State, Iowa State's going to be a test for Amet. He's been dealing with like right leg soreness and, you know, but I don't think that forgives some of the things that have been rough all year.

41:49It's just a lot of hypotheticals with him. and he's

41:53Bill Simmons:a get a GM fired kind of lottery pick. It's scary. It's scary. Yeah, like Iowa State turns people over and they pressure and if he has a good showing against them, I mean, that's kind of you don't want to go too far of like, you know, somebody has a good game and you draft them based on that, but I don't know. With this one, if he has a good outing against them and shows some toughness, I don't know if it's going to swing me dramatically, but I want to see. Outside the lottery, I see it. Once we move into the top 12, I'm just not seeing at that point. Is it weird that I feel like Michigan is by far the most vulnerable out of these four?

42:28Bill Simmons:We got Duke, we have Arizona, we have Houston, Michigan. Out of the super teams, something about Michigan makes me feel like somebody could get them. And I don't know what it is. I don't know, man. Seems like you're higher than me. they weren't playing well and they've really gotten a lot of stuff together. Yaxel's playing incredible. I mean, they beat a scrappy St. Louis team. We'll see. I mean, once the teams can kind of like throw punches with them size-wise, Alabama can't do that. They only play one guy who's like 6 '10 and he's kind of beefy. So, they're going to have to do it. So, you think they could just get overpowered.

43:07Bill Simmons:That would be the fear with that game. Yeah, I think they just, I mean, their center's 7 '3. Morris Johnson's another guy that I think you would like. He's a real, like, Isaiah Stewart type energy, muscular. And then Yaxel plays the three. They're gigantic, man. So then we have Illinois-Houston, which is another crazy draft battle. Those are two guys that are going to be somewhere between five and nine, the guards on those teams. Fleming's people are cooling off on a tiny bit, it feels like. But we get to see them go against each other. And that's the bracket. Houston's the favorite in that bracket, and they're plus 110.

43:44Bill Simmons:So that's the bracket that it seems like people feel like anybody could take. But do you have a strong feeling on either of those teams? Anything you like? I think any other year, I mean, sort of the pedigree and the style that Houston plays year to year is like big, physical. Their bigs aren't as good this year. So this is a really interesting juxtaposition of two teams here where Illinois is very finesse, a lot of Europeans on their team, a lot of skilled guys. They have this guy, Mirkovic, that I think you would really like for them. He's just this beefy four who can kind of score from all over.

44:15But for Wagler in particular, this is going to challenge him in some areas that are key to kind of like how you see his value. Because how he deals with the physicality of those guards, of Emmanuel Sharp, of Milos Huzan, and of Kingston, I think it's going to color the way people feel about him. If he comes out and plays great, it's going to help him a lot, I think.

44:37Bill Simmons:Yeah. Well, then we have St. John's Duke. Why doesn't Boozer shoot that 12-footer? I knew you were going to ask me that I haven't texted that to you I don't think either Yeah you did you were complaining to me And Tate about it you were like good looking the pros Yeah yeah That drives me crazy I mean I know I guess he can add it But I've never seen I've never seen anybody Take an open 12 footer And try to turn it into a layup Into two guys more than that dude Like It doesn't seem to me like he has his What you need in the NBA like that little like four, I always have this foul line jumper. You know, it's a lot of like stuff in traffic that he can do because he's playing against younger guys.

45:21Bill Simmons:I might have him three. Really? Okay. I'm still two. Yeah, I'm two. You have Peterson three? You have Peterson one. I have Peterson one. Yeah. Good luck with that one. I'm out. You're totally out? You wouldn't touch him? I did this a couple weeks ago and even what the band said to me, it has to be number one. This is like, this would be crazy if he doesn't go number one. I'll be just stupefied by this. I think that Peterson is a vastly more talented shot maker. I think he's going to be a better playmaker. I think he's a more explosive athlete when he's healthy. I'm a believer. I mean, that's the big argument that's going on in the nerd world versus like...

46:09Bill Simmons:When you say when he's healthy, we watch this guy scooting around screens, trying to two-hand block layups, you know, two feet over the rim. And he looked plenty healthy to me. I just think he comes and goes during games. And I didn't see any leadership from him at all. You know, and granted, I get it. He's the Kawhi. He's just the silent assassin. Like, I get it. Those guys have succeeded. But I don't know. I watched him a bunch these last two months and, um, I, I see it on paper. I see the case, but I saw some stuff that really worried me and I don't think it gets better at the next level. And I don't think he looks like he did in the high school tapes last year.

46:54That's a big argument going on right now. Like I was going to say, like, um, the people who, the people who watched him coming up, like the grassroots people who were really invested in it, they, and it introduces all these counterpoints where people are just like, well, yeah, he's playing against better athletes now. And it's like, he only played against great competition. It wasn't like he was playing against like, you know, little sisters of the poor kind of schools. It's like he, I just think he's a super, this has been really odd. And I think his personality probably didn't help like him.

47:25You know, it's probably hard for him to be the leader when he's been in and out and the way things have gone and how he fits into their offense. So, but I still, it's not that I don't like DeBansa. It's just like, I think that Peterson's separator skills are really, really special. Like, I'm not going to come off that. I could be wrong, but yeah.

47:44Bill Simmons:But if this was your job, you're the GM of a team. And if you mess this decision up, you're never going to have a GM job again. I don't think you're taking Peterson. I think it's too risky. You could talk yourself on all the pluses, but I just think ultimately you're going to be like, DeBanzo is going to be awesome. Like, he's just, the guy's a beast. there's no way he's not going to be good. You're going to pass him up and keep your fingers crossed. The other thing with Peterson, I'm glad you brought up like the, the, how he's quiet and blah, blah, blah. Kawhi was really quiet and quite the Kawhi thing worked.

48:19Bill Simmons:Well, where did Kawhi go? He went to the Spurs. Like you're basically in witness protection when you go with them because nobody, they have that whole family. When he was there, they had that whole family atmosphere. They had Duncan, they had Ginobili, they had Parker, they had pop. He didn't have to have a personality and he kind of had five years to grow into it, but we still don't know what his personality was. Then when it blows up there, he goes to Toronto. He's like a hired gun. Didn't need to have a personality. They had Van Vliet, Kyle Lowry. They had all these big Nick Nurse. Goes to the Clippers and we've seen it kind of come and go.

48:54Bill Simmons:Now he's a veteran and respected. but I just wonder if you're a rookie coming in the league with huge expectations and you have the personality Peterson has and you're going to like Brooklyn or I don't know the Wizards and people are like this is our savior and he's just doing this stuff game to game that we watched him do the last two months I don't think it's going to go well Do you think your leader has to be your best player? I don't have an answer I'm just curious what you think I don't think it has to be your best player I think there's a responsibility that comes with being the guy that we've seen people either sink or swim with.

49:31Bill Simmons:And we saw LaMelo struggle with it for years. Like he couldn't figure it out. Right. And he, for that was for different reasons. And it was finally, they had to put the right kind of people around him and he got matured obviously a little bit. Um, but I just think fits so much. So like if Peterson went to Indiana, I think that would be great. I could see them taking him first. that would make sense to me. But if we're talking like a shitty team, I'd get really nervous with that. I'd rather have DeBansa. I think if you were going to, I mean, I'm definitely leaning towards the basketball things working.

50:02And I think that where you can throw some doubt in there, I think that's legitimate is what you're saying. I mean, like the moment that Kawhi got away from that, that accountability and structure, it was like, that's when, granted the injury started and caused it. But do you hear a lot of complaints about, you know, in Toronto? know it's like was he the leader of the toronto team i don't know i'm sure somebody will hit me

50:23Bill Simmons:up and let me know but it doesn't yeah well the other thing with peterson is it seemed like he was very well liked by everybody right we didn't we never heard it's in my teammates like i'm coach everybody spoke highly of him they seemed to think that he probably wasn't completely healthy the first part of the year i just didn't think he showed enough other than flashes and potential but but he seemed healthy to me is where where i kind of disagree with people down the stretch I just thought the stuff he was doing athletically was pretty high level, you know, and he's just kind of floating out of these games.

50:56Bill Simmons:And I did make me nervous, but I do, you know, I would have, I would take him over boozer. Caleb Wilson's the wild card for me. Like that's the one I've become more and more fascinated by as I watch. Cause I just know what he is. I like what, I like when guys come in the league and it's like, I know exactly what you are and I know, I know how it's going to work. And I know you're going to put on 20 pounds of muscle. and I just know what this is. And he'll end up going fourth and it'll be a great pick, right? I'm going to take him ahead of Peterson. Right. But Peterson's the one that gets you fired.

51:31It's risky. I mean, just to quickly, you're saying that he was doing high-level athletic stuff. To me, and this argument, I think, is one of the major hinge points in the whole draft is like, our eyes, what we're seeing is you saw that as high level and I'm saying I know what I've seen and I'm just... You think there's another level beyond that?

51:52Bill Simmons:Yeah. I'm just kind of like, can I be disabused of like, did I see what I saw? I think so. It's like Zion playing defense in college. I was just like, great defensive upside. I think that's more of a part, like a choice thing on his part. Yeah. But with Wilson taking it to that, I mean, I think defensive upside in like the top four, I don't really feel like there's much question. I mean, I think that he has the potential to be like a special defender. And I think if you thread that needle and you say, if the offensive outcomes and there's any weirdness, like let's say that Boozer bumps his head on like what he's able to expand and do.

52:26And it's like, is he a superstar? No, he's like a fulcrum that adds to good offense. And then Peter, yeah. And then Devansa, maybe let's say he's more of a DeRozan, not super efficient from three. He's just more of like a tough shot maker. And then Wilson's an elite defender who can like, I think he's going to shoot the ball. You can talk yourself into it is what I'm saying. I mean, he does some things athletically, Bill, that are like, he's on another level, man. I mean, I have these freeze frames where he would jump from like the second block line on the lane and then like the next frame, he's like, literally his head is like over the rim.

52:59He just does things athletically that are really separator special, like among the top guys.

53:05Bill Simmons:I'm going to create a verb here. Not comparing to Giannis. It's a little Giannis-y. if Giannis-y is a verb there's some Giannis-y like freak freak freak athleticism with him and that's what I mean I don't think he's going to have the same Giannis has got to be 7 feet tall and I think he'll probably end up being not as big as him but he's that special athletically and I do wonder if he could pass Boozer when teams are working these guys out the thing I really like about Boozer and you can see it in the game that Sienna game when it was like, holy shit, are they going to choke? Any close game he's in, there's a calmness to him.

53:53Bill Simmons:He's just clearly a guy who's been... He's like a 28-year-old, 7-year NBA veteran, but he's 19. But he's clearly just been in so many games since he was like 10 that he doesn't get nervous, doesn't get rattled. He'll make a huge play and he doesn't even do a fist pump. like he's and he's always like gathering the team there's like some dunking stuff with him that i like he's just even keeled super competitive and never rattled and to speak to the oh i'm sorry go ahead no that's it um to speak to the caleb wilson thing i think the body type stuff that you're talking about is is pretty pretty spot on with he has that elastic he like he sits really low at a stance and then his like zero to 60 explosiveness is crazy not to be overly simple but he dunks a lot.

54:41He dunks a lot. I think he was, he was either close to or leading the country in dunks this year. So he gets easy stuff. The easy stuff that's accessible, Caleb Wilson gets it. You like that. You like to start from a simple premise like that, you know? And then, but he just doesn't quite handle the ball. It's just like Giannis was a special cross-section of that. It's just like, he just had guard skills in terms of like getting down hills. So that's, that's kind of the difference there. Yeah.

55:04Bill Simmons:And Giannis was playing, even you could see in the tapes from the Greece, with the Greek YMCA tapes. He was handling the ball a lot even back then. This kid is just runner, jumper, athlete, shot blocker, dunker, finisher, but could be the best guy in the league at that stuff in five years. Who knows? It's a really good one. And then you have all these guards. This is great. And the draft's going to get weird because when we get to 5, 6, 7, 8, we didn't do a good enough job talking about actual college basketball, so we'll end on this. the patino thing because in in college in pro and in college versus pro pro you have the players college football and basketball the coaches kind of become He's the anchors of the sport in a lot of ways, the signature guys.

55:53Bill Simmons:And it was just so funny watching him in that Duke game, basically playing all the hits, being a huge asshole, being a motivator, being competitive. And then they get this winning play, which was just one of the worst defensive possessions I've ever seen in my life. I still don't understand what happened. I give up a layup. And he just kind of walked over the coach and shook his hand. there's just nobody there's nobody like how compelling he is as a coach I grew up with Bobby Knight and those guys he really feels like a throwback to this era when these coaches were these larger than life guys so him going against Duke I feel like he's bringing everything in this game like this will be it this will be his like one battle after another PTA movie where he's like we're going fucking IMAX we're doing a giant chase scene I'm getting Del Toro I'm getting Penn I just think he's emptying the chamber in this game?

56:49I've gotten it relayed to me that he is very, very confident that they have a legitimate shot to win it all. And I was just thinking about it and I was like, I mean, this team is really, really... I'll say all that to say, I don't know that that's going to happen. If it does, I think it'll apply to this. What I'm going to say here is that I think he has a legitimate argument for best college coach ever. I think if you think about what he's done and where, I mean, and that spans all levels. It was like when he was at like, you know, Boston, I figure it was Boston University.

57:19Bill Simmons:No, he was at BU and UMass. Yeah. Not UMass, but yeah. And then Providence. Providence, that's right. And he goes to the Final Four at Providence. He goes to, you know, he wins at Louisville. He could, if he'd stayed at Kentucky, he would have been lockstep with Coach K. I don't think there's any question about that. And he leaves and comes back and he wins at Iona, you know, and now he's doing this at St. John's at this stage of his career. I just think that, and then you think about the way that he was a pioneer. He was a forward thinker in terms of college, but his teams were shooting 25 threes in the mid nineties.

57:48Like he just, he was always ahead. Um, but what's funny is in the nineties was,

57:54Bill Simmons:he was probably, his teams did it the best out of anybody other than maybe Arkansas. Yeah. This, I mean, this is the stuff like, I know when you, you probably had your, your like hooks in you years as a basketball fan. What were the, like the hooks in you years for you Celtics wise, like the teams that you remember? Was it like, what year are we talking about? Late, mid late seventies, like the moment I was going, but yeah, When I first started understanding basketball, which is probably somewhere in the 80s, but college was the best it's ever been during those times, right? And it was so many great athletes and so many, you know, lottery picks staying three, four years in college.

58:31Bill Simmons:And a lot of the coaches, like I remember Guy Lewis was the Houston coach. They had the best athletes and he was just terrible. He was an awful coach, right? And so when you actually saw a good coach, it really stood out. and Patino was one of those where it's like, wow, this guy's, this guy's, and honestly, Coach K was a good coach as much as we like to make fun of him. I would never, I would never begrudge him that. Coach K was a good coach. I just want to go on record. Yeah. Dean Smith, that was always, thank God Tate's not here. Dean Smith, that was always a little suspect of, I think there was some, there's some shakiness with him.

59:06Bill Simmons:Like that, that Perkins, Jordan, Kenny Smith team, not, I forget where they, when they got ousted, but that was insane that that team didn't make the final four. Michael Jordan in his junior year, he couldn't make the final four. Had some talent. But yeah, but the Patino, you're right. Like he's, he's definitely a one-on-one. I wanted Holy Cross to get him when he was in career purgatory and he went to Iona. I thought that would have been like an amazing, yeah, let's ride this dude for three years and not turn it around. He went to Greece and won. He went over like, he's just, he's just a dude who has like established process.

59:40He went everywhere about Boston.

59:42Bill Simmons:he was terrible the entire time in Boston he was probably he's probably looking at the like you know the effort era of the NBA and being like are you fucking kidding me right we're doing this now right we'd have loved coaching a team like a team like Phoenix would have been his dream like Devin Booker and 14 guys who just try really hard yeah he would have loved that so you're talking about him going through the game and it's like him just playing the hits of all the things It's like everybody that I've talked to that's played for him, it really goes on and on about how mellow he is now. Because, you know, you're talking about Bobby Knight.

1:00:18It's just like he absolutely was Bobby Knight, but just didn't get the same attention because I don't think he did it publicly as much. But, yeah, man, I think he's got an argument for the best ever, aside from the messiness at Louisville that he had that went on.

1:00:30Bill Simmons:Do you think, certainly messy to say the least, do you think they have a best player in the game possibility for this game? For St. John's? Yeah. I mean, if Zuby Ejiofor goes wild, I mean, he's a guy that is like a toolsy, like a team could steal him, does a lot of stuff well. I mean, he's the guy who left Kansas because Self wouldn't play him. And it was one of the all-time, you should, yeah, I figured he did a big FU game. Yeah, I mean, that's in play. Yeah, Ejiofor is their best player. And they've got some guys that can get going. He carries himself like the best player. He can't shoot threes.

1:01:03Bill Simmons:But there's an end of the game wherewithal to him that I just, you just watch it. and your eyes get drawn to guys when you're watching. Like if my wife was watching, she would just think he was the best guy in the game watching it, not knowing anybody on either team. He does pass the test. I could see him throwing some haymakers at Duke. And then, I don't know. I thought the Sienna game was significant. There's a recipe with Duke where you can see them get a little discombobulated. Obviously, their point guard situation. But I think the Boozer Brothers have been great. Like for where we thought we were with him a couple months ago.

1:01:43Bill Simmons:I think that guy's, it could be a first round pick possibly, maybe, if he came out, like late first round. I don't know if I'd go first round for him. I mean, I could see him coming back another year and playing on the team. They're going to be good again next year. But I think size-wise, yeah, St. John's has a lot to throw at them and athleticism-wise. I mean, they've got Dylan Mitchell, who's really big and long, that they can throw at Isaiah Evans, the big lanky movement shooter for Duke. I didn't know if your eye was... Dom A. Sar is the other dude that I figured that you would like for Duke.

1:02:15I like Sar. He looks like a giraffe. I mean, if he hits threes, he's going to be a first rounder too. They got a lot of guys.

1:02:22Bill Simmons:I was shocked the guy I probably liked the most was the Boozer brother. Just for the guys that I was pleasantly surprised that I liked. I just think he... I could see him being in the NBA for like 10 years. He's another one where I know what he is. He's like when Trey Jones just kept landing on teams playing 20 minutes. I think he's one of those. And I do wonder if he comes out, if a team thinks like we'll take, like the Pacers, we'll take Cam third, and then we'll get his brother in the second round and we'll bring them together. Because I do think they have something pretty unique. But that game's going to be great.

1:02:56Bill Simmons:I can't wait, Kyle, man. This is going to be fantastic. I can't wait to neglect my family and watch basketball all day. It's going to be. The other thing is NBA has gotten really good too, because we have 10 teams that don't try and 20 teams that do. And anytime any of the two 20 teams play, it's like Detroit and the Lakers last night. Like that game was really entertaining, you know? Yeah. And we have a lot of teams jacking for playoff positions. So anyway, all right, Kyle, man, don't get divorced. Try to keep it together this week and say hi to everybody over there. Appreciate it, man. Thanks.

1:03:32Bill Simmons:so every Wednesday I decided to look through the NBA slate make an NBA parlay the rules would be whatever I want we're doing this because um on FanDuel on Wednesdays you can use a profit boost token and increase your potential winnings before you place your bet but it is it is baseball season this week and uh we're kicking off opening day obviously uh love having baseball back and me and Sal and House and Hench, we did a little over under wins parlay I want to tell you about before the season kicks off where we have the Athletics have to win 70 plus games. The Red Sox have to win 80 plus games.

1:04:09Bill Simmons:The Mariners have to win 90 plus games. And last but not least, the big one, the Orioles, 90 plus games. This is our sleeper team to be a real contender in the American League. So you throw all those together as a four team futures parlay and it's plus 732. So I'm foregoing my NBA bet this week and I'm recommending that as my future. We'll bring back the NBA next week, but it will be, maybe they'll even put it up on the Sportsbook app. Either way, don't forget to use a profit boost token for your NBA bets on Wednesday. FanDuel, play your game. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Upsets, buzzer beaters, game-changing plays.

1:04:51Bill Simmons:what happens on the court keeps us on our toes and life isn't any different. That's where State Farm comes in with over 19 ,000 neighborhood agents for when you want to talk to a real person and easy to use digital tools. State Farm is there to help when facing the unpredictable because in life's uncertain moments, big or small, you need to know someone is ready to assist. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Price and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn ads. Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first, but didn't live up to the hype?

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1:06:09Bill Simmons:Just go to linkedin.com slash Simmonsbill. That's linkedin.com slash Simmons Bill. Terms and conditions apply. This episode is brought to you by Instagram. As a parent, I know that you're always gonna worry about your teens, and while we can't keep them at home in a bubble, there are still ways to make sure they're protected. Like Instagram teen accounts. Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections for what your teens see and who can contact them, plus time management tools and extra controls for parents who prefer them. And Instagram will continue adding built-in safety features to help create age-appropriate experiences.

1:06:44Bill Simmons:Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com slash teenaccounts. That's instagram.com slash teenaccounts. All right, Todd McShay is here. You can listen and watch The McShay Show, which is now on Netflix as well, or you can watch his video on Spotify. We launched, tell the audience what you launched this week. This is pretty exciting.

1:07:07Todd McShay:I'm pumped, man. And I appreciate your support. I've told you that privately, but I also want to share it publicly. The fact that I came to you, I don't know, eight months ago and said, there's this project I want to do. We kind of mentioned I fueled the draft tracker for ESPN for a long time. And I always thought it was a good product, but we could do it better. And we're kind of in phase one of what we just launched yesterday, which is the McShay NFL Draft Board, which is basically a microsite connected to The Ringer. It's theringer.com slash McShay. and um we it's the initial launch it's the top 100 prospects top 50 evaluations it's got the mock 3.0 on there um it's just it's everything housed in one place mench lives there we forgot

1:07:53Bill Simmons:to mention mench is actually just living inside of virtually no i i just there truly virtual

1:07:58Todd McShay:virtual mench is in there he's in there and he's and he's writing hopefully right this moment is writing a report on a guard from like Iowa state, you know, like that's the vision I have that he's always just kind of grinding in that version of men. So we're, we're really excited about it. And finally a place to kind of house everything. I've been doing this 26 years, Bill. I've always kind of dreamed of being able to create a database.

1:08:22Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:08:23Todd McShay:As I've, I've directly dealt with, um, catapult used to be Xos and they had multiple NFL teams and I've talked to general managers and all the things that go into their database. with the comparisons that they pull out, with the history and kind of the trends for each position, each workout drill. We're going to build that together to make it as, it'll be the only thing in the market that will mirror that of an NFL scouting department and what they use for their draft room.

1:08:51Bill Simmons:I'm excited. The best thing about the draft, and this is the case for the NBA too, is being able to then look back and forward and who does this guy remind you of? Who does that guy? and the comparisons. The NBA has some great ones right now with this draft that's coming up. And then with football, it's the most fun with quarterbacks. We don't really have as many fun quarterbacks to talk about in this draft, but this does lead to my hot take. Okay. I thought of this this week as ESPN, our old employer, was trying to get a... Are we sure Ty Simpson is the best quarterback? And I was like, this is the most boring draft we've had this decade.

1:09:30Bill Simmons:We're trying to manufacture...

1:09:31Todd McShay:That's a direct insult, Bill. No, no.

1:09:33Bill Simmons:I'm saying from a storyline standpoint, we just don't have the drama yet. And I don't think it's going to be can Ty Simpson catch Mendoza. But the drama comes. Right now, I feel like it's boring. Where's the drama? What's going to happen? What are you looking at as like, oh, this is going to be good. Ooh, this is going to be juicy. Where is it? What's going to happen?

1:09:55Todd McShay:I think it's Jeremiah Love. He's the best player in the draft, but he's a running back. And you look at, you know, I don't know that it equates to the NBA, but you look at the money and it doesn't, there isn't a correlation, an exact correlation, but you look at the running back position. If I take a running back and, you know, like last year, Ashton Gentry was a six overall pick. You're now paying him as if he's the eighth best running back in the league by veteran salary. And you could have bought for him and you're paying him like,

1:10:29Bill Simmons:he's the eighth best running back in the league. That's the worst case. Right.

1:10:32Todd McShay:And even if you could block for him, you're having to pay him based off of what the running back salary structure is and the annual per, or the average per year of the top five guys, whatever it is. Running back's the second lowest on that chart.

1:10:47Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:10:48Todd McShay:Where it starts with quarterback, then it's edge rusher. Surprisingly, it's now wide receiver is the third. Then you get down to the offensive tackle spot. So if I can get an offensive tackle or an edge rusher and pay them that money, which is eighth in the running back list, but you're talking$30,$40 million per year for a veteran on their second contract. That's a massive difference. And that's how teams... You look at the Seahawks, right? JSN, still on his rookie deal. Kenneth Walker, still on his rookie deal when they win the Super Bowl. They can then take all that extra money in the salary cap and go put it in different places like a deep defensive line.

1:11:27Todd McShay:So that's the struggle with Jeremiah Love. And you've got a team in the Cardinals that could use him at three. You've got the Titans that would love to pair him with Cam Ward at four. The Giants at five with John Harbaugh. And the Commanders at seven. But I don't know that any of those teams in the top five want to spend that capital. It'll be interesting. I think the watch starts at five with the Giants. But everyone I talk to in the league says if he's not the best, he's the second best player in the draft. And that guy's not going to get out of the top five. But where's he going to go?

1:11:58Bill Simmons:Yeah, there's no way this can happen in the NBA. The only real way it can happen is what we have this year. We have the top four. And then basically the next five guys are guards in some order. And a couple of them are point guards. And there just might be a situation where like the fifth, sixth, seventh team already has a point guard. They don't need a second point guard. But by the board, it's like, whoa, we're going to pass up Acuff. He just dragged his team in the final four and he might be Kyrie Irving. We're not going to take him because we have Darius Garland. That's the only way I can think of it.

1:12:33Bill Simmons:I was talking to a Giants fan today who is one of the funniest things. And this is why I think the draft will eventually become way less boring and actually pretty funny. You have the Jets and the Giants, both of whom are like, all their fans are like, ah, you know, the Giants are five. The fans are like, ah, we should probably take love. Right. but then everyone who takes a running back in the top five, it's a disaster. Downs is another one. Nobody wants to take a safety that high. You have them on your big board. You have them fifth. But as you laid out the Seahawks, over and over again, we see these teams, they stack the offensive and the defensive lines and then build out.

1:13:12Bill Simmons:And if you have the quarterback in the two lines, the rest is a lot easier. And then over and over again, we see these teams in the top seven, eight. They're like, yeah, I'll take a safety. It's like, well, you can find safeties anywhere. so why don't these teams try to mirror the Seahawks and actually just try to build out the lines?

1:13:30Todd McShay:The Eagles are another example, right? Yes. The last two Super Bowl winners, right? This year's unique. I can't remember. I've been doing this, like I said, 26 years. I can't remember a year in which you can make an actual strong argument that the three best players are a running back, a safety, and off-ball linebacker in Sonny Stiles.

1:13:50Bill Simmons:Oof. like three of the positions we've learned to save money on over the years.

1:13:54Todd McShay:Right. And then our Val Reese, who we're calling an edge, was kind of a hybrid edge off ball linebacker. Yeah. And if you, so, and you're projecting, yeah, he's going to be the next Micah Parsons, but the tape doesn't show that he's there and Micah didn't, you know, Micah was one into the Cowboys locker room as a rookie, as an off ball linebacker, there were some injuries. He went to edge and we know the story, how it played out from there. So that part's fascinating because I talked to GM, but we did six interviews at the Combine, right? Yeah. With general managers. And every single one of them, and I talked to a bunch of other ones in the league, it's this mantra of you don't pass up on a Hall of Fame player in the draft.

1:14:35Todd McShay:You take the best players.

1:14:37Bill Simmons:Are there Hall of Fame players in this draft other than maybe Love?

1:14:40Todd McShay:I mean, Sonny Stiles could become a Hall of Fame linebacker. Yeah.

1:14:43Bill Simmons:Okay.

1:14:43Todd McShay:He is today. And Jeremiah Love could become a Hall of Fame back. and Caleb Downs could become a Hall of Fame safety. They're all that good, but it's kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth that you don't pass up on a Hall of Fame player, a guy that you have that high on your board with that grade. But then you look at the economics of it and you say, this doesn't work. You look at running back, every running back taken in the top 10, not one, go back to Todd Gurley. We're talking about, you know, Fournette, Christian McCaffrey Bijan Ashton Gentty Saquon none of them have won a Super Bowl with the team that they were drafted by or made the Super Bowl

1:15:27Bill Simmons:with the team they were drafted by

1:15:29Todd McShay:Gurley made a Super Bowl later on but yeah not one of them actually won a Super Bowl and yeah and it's been a long time since the running backs drafted in the top 10 I think Gurley was 10 overall too wound up even making it to a Super Bowl so so Peterson was the last

1:15:45Bill Simmons:I don't regret this at all, running back, taking that high?

1:15:49Todd McShay:I'd have to look at it, but I think you're probably right. And they didn't make the Super Bowl with him. And that was one of my first years. So that was like, what was that, 2001, 2002? It was mid-2000s, yeah, somewhere in the mid-2000s.

1:16:01Bill Simmons:And I guess Tomlinson would be another one that you don't regret taking him where they took him. Right, right. But odds are you're going to end the other way. I mean, the Gente thing was instructive because this is why we love the draft. The longer you stare at it and stare at it, you get seduced and you're the Raiders and you can't block. You're a complete mess. You're bringing a new coach and you have gente. And it's like, you know what? This guy might be awesome. And then all of a sudden you're taking him at six and he spends the year like running for his life and getting tackled by four guys.

1:16:32Todd McShay:You don't have an offensive line. You don't have a quarterback. You don't have receivers. It's just, it's not the right spot for him.

1:16:37Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:16:37Todd McShay:Now, now Washington, the giants, I feel like they've solidified their offensive line.

1:16:45Bill Simmons:I like the giant spot for him, even if it seems a little high, because I think they have a lot of talent. Like they're not a typical top five team with new coach and all the blue chippers and guys coming back from injuries. And they might actually have a quarterback and they're going to have an easier schedule. And you put him in. And if he's like a superstar right away, that might be like if they were picking ninth, you would say, of course, do it. But fifth, it feels a tiny bit high.

1:17:10Todd McShay:but I think the Giants and the Titans are two teams that are going to be a lot better next year that are going to make the biggest jumps now obviously the Chiefs are sitting there at number nine and we don't know what's going to what's happening with Patrick and you know is he going to be back to form and everything's going to be fine but but of the let's say the top eight teams I think the two that could make the biggest jumps will be Tennessee and the Giants I really

1:17:30Bill Simmons:do what about Washington at seven because that in my head I feel like that's where he's going

1:17:35Todd McShay:How did that happen last year, man? You know what I mean? I want you to think back to that NFC playoff run with Jaden Daniels. And it was like, oh my gosh. He's better than Caleb. He's better than Drake. New ownership, new staff. Everything feels right. And to see what the product was the end of last season in, what, eight months, nine months, was pretty wild.

1:18:05Bill Simmons:Hard schedule. Daniels got hurt. They had old guys that, you know, that can be a 50-50 coin flip. A lot of the old guys either got old or got hurt. You know, the momentum starts swinging the other way. All of a sudden, you're 6-11.

1:18:20Todd McShay:Yeah, but they absolutely could make a jump right back up.

1:18:23Bill Simmons:That's my worst-case scenario for the Patriots.

1:18:26Todd McShay:Yeah, you're down on next year already. I'm noticing that from the text.

1:18:30Bill Simmons:The schedule is brutal. Um, and I do think they overachieved a little bit, but, and I didn't love the free agency was fine. It was a lot of sideways stuff. I don't, I don't know if you could say they were better. Now we'll see the draft, but don't you think AJ Brown's going to be a Patriot? We're dating. You're doing this to me. Yeah. They have to wait till after June 1st. He loves Rabel. He grew up rooting for the Patriots. Right. There's only one other suitor. The Rams. The Rams. and it's like if you're the Eagles, maybe you're talking yourself into I'd rather have next year's Pats first because maybe they're not going to be that good.

1:19:12Bill Simmons:Maybe they know stuff about AJ Brown.

1:19:14Todd McShay:Do you think the Eagles are going to give an NFC opponent

1:19:16Bill Simmons:in the playoffs, AJ Brown? Do we know why he wasn't nearly as good as he normally was last year? I mean, the whole he

1:19:26Todd McShay:there's multiple layers. It's not a talent thing. It's he's how do I put this kindly can can flow can fluctuate a lot he's a fluctuator terms he's a fluctuator right and then and then you like the whole offense was a mess and the timing wasn't right and the quarterback play got frustrating and I think it started with the coaching and the system the scheme and all that so I think it's yeah I I will be more surprised if he's not a Patriot by July 1st, then I will be if he's somewhere else.

1:20:02Bill Simmons:So you're looking at that like, so they signed Dobbs. I just did my mock draft

1:20:07Todd McShay:assuming that he's going to be a Patriot.

1:20:10Bill Simmons:Okay. Because that was another thing that made this draft really fun is there's just really good receivers and we might have a situation where teams are grabbing players and there's two receivers left and one of them just starts dropping because everybody has their receiver. And now six more picks have gone and nobody needs a receiver. And all of a sudden, somebody awesome falls to 31. It is one of those drafts.

1:20:35Todd McShay:We could see two times. I think it was 2022 and 2020. What is the number? I want to say 13 receivers have gone in the first two rounds. That's the most. I went back to 1967, the common draft era. I think there could be 13 again this year and possibly 14. I think in the first two rounds and the first two rounds, there's, there's no Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, you know, Larry Fitzgerald, uh, Mark chase it. But, but when you get to pick, it could start at six with, um, with Cleveland, with, with Carnell Tate from Ohio state. But from that point on, like McKay lemon from us season, absolute dog.

1:21:18Todd McShay:Jordan Tyson reminds me of Stefan digs coming out of Arizona state has some injuries could go mid first but could be a steal um omar cooper jr from indiana really good he would be a perfect fit for mcveigh in that system um i i look at even his teammate elijah surat is a second round pick is a big x on the outside denzel boston's another big x out of washington notre dame's got one in malachi fields um i mean kc conception's a great after the catch and and super quick and fast. There's just, I mean, I could literally sit here and list 13, but I don't think it's really good for podcasting.

1:21:56Bill Simmons:I've been scouting some of them, by the way. I do have some thoughts. Give me some. I really like Cooper. I do too. Because he's basically between, if you look at it, and I've looked at all of them, he's usually between like 13. There's been a couple where he's been at the bottom of the round just because people are moving other receivers up. I don't know where he's going to go, but he's just like, there's no way he's not going to be good. That's the one where I'm just like, what are we doing?

1:22:25Todd McShay:I think the Ravens are 14, right? Yeah. I'd be surprised if he gets past. It depends on where the first one goes, right? Because it's going to go Tate and then either Lemon or Tyson. Those three should be the first three off the board. It wouldn't shock me if Omar Cooper Jr. went ahead of one of those guys.

1:22:43Bill Simmons:You have him 17th on your board. You have the three guys in front of him.

1:22:48Todd McShay:so 17 would probably be the parachute but i think he could go 13 or 14 i really do

1:22:55Bill Simmons:like him i don't some of the other ones i i'm so scarred with the pats because they've missed on so many receivers like you go on forever but there's some other like one of the things that i like about this draft if you're going glass half full on this draft being being really fun there's teams where i'm just like i look at cleveland i'm like you guys need everything i don't even know if they take a receiver at six, what's that going to do? You lost every offensive lineman you had in free agency. Well, they brought in a few, but yes. But I mean, you're completely revamped offensive line in this bizarre quarterback situation with Sanders and Watson.

1:23:32Bill Simmons:And it's like, if they took, you have Tate ninth on your big board, but if they took him sixth, I would just immediately feel bad for him. It's like, man, that sucks. I know it's nice to be playing home, but what a shady situation. You know, same thing if you get picked by the Dolphins. It's like, cool, I'm not going to have a quarterback.

1:23:54Todd McShay:Those are, the Dolphins are different because they brought in Malik and then just decided to trash the rest of the roster.

1:24:00Bill Simmons:Right. They brought in Malik with no anything. It's like, all right, keep your fingers crossed.

1:24:06Todd McShay:Yeah, for his safety. But here's another storyline that I'm kind of fascinated by. Next year's draft. Yeah. I haven't pitched this to you yet, but I really want to, the Washington DC lawn, like Arch and Dante. And like, I just think there's, we could make a, I want you there in Washington with us. Okay. I want it, I want it to be a scene. Anyway, next year's draft has a chance to be one of, if not the best quarterback drafts of all time. But the thing that kind of is getting overlooked is there's a ton of other talent too. So you look at this from a, Like the Jets, for a fact, I know. But one of their deals for the first, when they would get multiple extra, they dealt Quinnen at defensive tackle.

1:24:50Todd McShay:They dealt Sauce Gardner at cornerback.

1:24:55Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:24:56Todd McShay:Their whole plan was, listen, we don't want the one this year. We'll take a two this year. Give us the one next year. So now they've got two first rounders this year. They've got eight picks in the first two rounds this year and next year combined. But they got the three first rounders next year.

1:25:09Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:25:09Todd McShay:They're one of a few teams where it's, we're operating under 2026. Like, yeah, we want to win some games and we want the fans to be happy and the owners to be happy. We're building for 27. And that's why you bring in a Gino. They're going to win enough games where it doesn't completely implode and Woody doesn't fire everybody, but they're going to be in a position where they can get their quarterback.

1:25:31Bill Simmons:Or you bring them in to lose all your games. Did you see them last year? I mean, if you want to be bad, I would start with 2025 Gino repeating it.

1:25:40Todd McShay:I promise you the mantra was we want to win enough to keep this job and everything. It doesn't blow up, but not enough where we have to package too many picks to go move up and get our guy.

1:25:51Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:25:51Todd McShay:Then you've got Arizona. Everyone's saying Ty Simpson now. Maybe Arizona trades up into the first round or maybe they move out of three if a team wants to move up for Jeremiah Love or whoever it would be. Arizona though it kind of looks like if they don't if it's not Ty Simpson they're they're working towards 2027 right so and the Cleveland Browns you just mentioned that's what got me thinking the Cleveland Browns like let's get it let's get a wide receiver let's get Carnell Tate at six and Caleb Lomu the offensive tackle at 24 right and let's let's let's see what Shadour does and if if he has this miraculous season and it looks like he's our guy great that's a win but probably we're going to address quarterback in 27 as well.

1:26:32Todd McShay:So that's three organizations right there that I think very much are kind of working towards, not tanking for a couple of them, but working towards 2027 already.

1:26:43Bill Simmons:Yeah, we don't use tanking in football because there's less games and it's so violent and these guys aren't, it's not like what we're doing in the NBA, which has been a complete disgrace. But there are things you can do. And we've seen it, we saw with Vegas last year where you're shutting down Crosby when he wants to play. Yes. There's a couple of those moments you have. I think the Browns would have the easiest path to do that because either quarterback choice is going to be pretty bad for them. Miami, I don't really understand why they torpedoed the roster and signed Malik Willis. That didn't make sense.

1:27:17Bill Simmons:Honestly, it didn't make sense to me. I get the torpedo in the roster and throwing away the year, but then why are you also making a pretty sizable bet on this guy to be a franchise quarterback for you, but then you're just giving him the worst car possible to drive. What are you going to learn from that next year? Nothing.

1:27:36Todd McShay:Yeah, I mean, thankfully for him, he's mobile and hopefully can endure it. I mean, honestly. What does he look like when he's running like this? John Eric Sullivan, the new GM, I actually believe he's doing all the right things. It's almost like you want to put Malik on the shelf and play him in like six, six, eight games and protect him. And so he's ready for 2027. But it is, it's challenging to look at that roster and see where you're getting five, six wins, you know?

1:28:08Bill Simmons:Yeah. All right. So other storylines we have, the Sonny Stiles thing, who is the combine superhero this year. Was he the big winner of combine superhero cape? The one that got everyone the most excited?

1:28:20Todd McShay:Yes. Also a great player though. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1:28:22Bill Simmons:But I mean, he, everyone came out of that like, holy shit. what is this?

1:28:26Todd McShay:Well, he's different, man.

1:28:26Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:28:27Todd McShay:And he's, and he's, and he's like a special human being too. So you're getting, you're getting, I got to talk to one, one decision maker, we'll call him, who's like, this guy's going to be CEO of a company. Like he's, he's that level. He's, and, and this, and in this league, it's like, he can play the overhang and cover slot guys. He can, he, he actually, if you look at his production as a pass rusher, he had about half as many edge rush opportunities as arvel reese over the last two years but he was just he was on par in terms of sacks pressures all that with what arvel did and so i'm not saying he's going to be that guy but i do think his role is not going to be that of your traditional off ball linebacker so i would take him in the top five i was going to ask you would you take him two or three over the other choices?

1:29:17Todd McShay:I actually would.

1:29:18Bill Simmons:Yeah, it seems like you would. I can tell from reading you, it seems like... I actually would. Reese feels flimsy to me where it's like, best case scenario, Michael Parsons. And we've seen these guys where it's like sometimes the worst case scenario, you're like, oof. I can't believe it turned out like this. It just seems like he's almost like a coin flip, which I don't want to do at number two. I'd rather... I want sure things at number two.

1:29:41Todd McShay:I mean, he really, he is, he's a cyborg, you know, just the power, the speed, the length, all of it. His password, like there's a lot of great flashes and he got, he got a lot of reps as an edge rusher this year. The problem is if he, if he goes full-time in the NFL at edge, and he's not as big as Sonny Stiles.

1:30:01Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:30:02Todd McShay:If he goes full-time at edge and it works out where he's just okay. Now you're dropping him back to off ball linebacker or having to play this hybrid role. He's not great. I mean, he's good. He's okay, but he's not great dropping into coverage like Sonny is. And so, so what do you have? And so, yeah, there's a lot I want to bet on.

1:30:21Bill Simmons:Whereas Sonny, you know, you know what he is, you know what he's going to be, you know, he's going to be awesome.

1:30:25Todd McShay:Former safety playing linebacker has shown that he can rush the passer at times in this league with all the personnel packages and trying to keep the same 11 on the field and want to be multiple. I just, I think he has more value. Sonny styles does than, than even five years ago in the league.

1:30:43Bill Simmons:So is it crazy to think if, if he's there at five, the giants just say, fuck it. Let's add him to our defense.

1:30:51Todd McShay:I would take Sonny styles if I was the giants, even though they brought in Tremaine Edmonds, their run defense has been atrocious. They want to be a physical team under Harbaugh. yeah, you like Jeremiah Love, but maybe you draft another back to go with Scadaboo and Tyrone Tracy. I just, I think Sonny Stiles would bring that. And then you think about what they have at edge, right? I think he would take that defense to another level. The Giants are in a good spot. Like they kind of can't screw it up. Right. If you take Jeremiah Love, yeah, you deal with the economics of it, but he's the identity of what they want to be with a mobile quarterback, with a back who took the league by storm in Scadaboo.

1:31:33Todd McShay:But that can't, that's not sustainable, his running style. One season injured and now he's coming off of an injury. Yeah. So that would be, that's a win. Sonny Stiles is a win. Caleb Downs is worth the pick, but I'd be more excited about Sonny Stiles if I'm being honest.

1:31:52Bill Simmons:And it's the most fun if love goes seven with Daniels with the rejuvenated commanders team and us in mid-September being like, holy shit, Daniels and love the speed and watch these teams try to figure out blah, blah, blah. Yep. That'd be fun. Yep. That'd be a lot of fun. I can't think of a real fun Jets scenario, unfortunately.

1:32:13Todd McShay:It's going to be take an edge rusher. It's going to be Bailey or Arvell is my guess at two. And then just be back. It's 16 take wide receiver.

1:32:25Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:32:26Todd McShay:But the beauty is, what do they have, 11 overall picks? Again, they're building for 2027. This is about putting pieces in to get ready when you do insert that quarterback next year and hopefully don't have to use all three picks to go get them, that they'll be ready to roll. You know what's going to be fascinating? This is over a year. This is a year and 30 days away.

1:32:48Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:32:51Todd McShay:Will Arch go to the Jets if the Jets have the first overall pick. Oh, the repeat of the Eli. Oh, wow.

1:33:00Bill Simmons:Yep. I don't know why it doesn't happen more. Like Ace Bailey kind of passive-aggressively tried, his team tried to do it when he wanted to go to Washington and Utah picked him. But he just ended up going. But we've never seen... He did, yeah. We've never seen anybody just, especially now with the NIL stuff, I don't know exactly what the rules would be if somebody just being like, yeah, I don't like the team that drafted me, I'm going back. because I don't know if there are any rules in college sports anymore. But I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often where a guy's just like, yeah, no thanks.

1:33:33Bill Simmons:Danny Ferry did it in 1990 with the Clippers. He was just like, I'm out. Francis did it with the Vancouver Grizzlies. And then we had Eli do it and Elway do it. But the number is less than 10 in my lifetime of guys who have just said, yeah, I'm not going there. No thanks.

1:33:52Todd McShay:it'll, that'll, that will be fascinating because we're tracking towards, you know, maybe it's Miami at one, but the jets are very likely to be one of the top. The jets are likely to have a top five pick. And, and, and if they, if they don't own the first pick, then they have the capital to go get that first pick. If it's a team that doesn't need a quarterback. So here's the thing. If it was like my son or your son,

1:34:19Bill Simmons:and they were in this situation and the two, teams looking at them where the Jets or the Browns knowing everything we know, I'd be like, you're not playing there. We're holding out.

1:34:28Todd McShay:If I had any kind of control. Yeah. We're holding out.

1:34:31Bill Simmons:You're not going to Cleveland. No, thank you. It's not happening. Same for the Jets. Like it's no, like we'll wait them out. Eventually they're going to have to trade you. What are they going to do? Just get nothing for the asset. Let's be patient. Hopefully we'll have a 20 year career. You're not starting your career there. Like prove to us, you can have a competent franchise for a year before I send my son there. I'm amazed it doesn't happen more often. Yeah.

1:34:55Todd McShay:Next year is going to be, that part will be intriguing to see where the Jets wind up in the first round draft order.

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1:35:41Bill Simmons:They had drafted well with Marcus Smart. All of a sudden they had cap space in 2016. They get Al Horford. And then the Brooklyn trade starts paying dividends. They get Tatum. They get Brown. And somehow they have enough cap space to also get Gordon Hayward. And it's this unbelievable hypothetical Celtics team that we thought had a chance to win titles. Hayward got hurt. Kyrie kind of didn't last. And we had to move in the 2020s with different nucleus. But it was brilliant the way they laid the whole thing out. You certainly can't kick yourself for the decisions they made. Anyway, that was Great Returns presented by Tax Act.

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1:37:35Bill Simmons:Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at servicenow.com. I talked myself way more into this. Just talking to you for a half hour, I'm way more excited. The Chiefs, the Chiefs just being on the board with Mahomes. You know, in July, it'd be like, Mahomes is doing great. He's running full speed already. We'll be getting those stories around July 10th. Kelsey already resigned. Easier schedule. They brought back the enemy. We're going to have the whole Andy Reid. I had a come to Jesus moment last year. I've got to do better. I'm not the same guy I was 10 years ago. I got to double down. I can still be a good coach.

1:38:13Bill Simmons:And then they have this ninth pick that could be a really exciting player. This could be the most impactful offensive player they've drafted since Tyreek, which was nine years ago, eight years ago, I don't remember. I guess Mahomes was the most they traded up for him. But yeah, they haven't had a guy, you know, if they got Love, if they got one of these receivers, this would be a real thing for them.

1:38:38Todd McShay:I actually have heard that if Jeremiah Love somehow gets to nine, which I don't think he will, but if he gets to nine, even though they signed Kenneth Walker, that they would still entertain drafting him there, which would be fascinating, right? Wow. It would kind of signal a whole new Chiefs offensive mindset. but more realistic is are we taking an edge rusher? Are we taking Mansoor Delane, the LSU cornerback who's clearly the best cornerback after we just let our top two corners walk out the building?

1:39:12Bill Simmons:Well, they have two firsts though,

1:39:14Todd McShay:so maybe they get the cornerback

1:39:15Bill Simmons:with the other pick.

1:39:16Todd McShay:Yeah, 29. So Delane would be in play there. If a Reuben Bain were to fall, I think he would be in play there. But if not, is it a wide receiver? I mean, they've missed from Sky Moore, Rasheed Rice, Rasheed Rice. They need someone reliable in receiver. They need someone they can trust. You know, and is that Carnell Tate? Is that Makai Lemon? Yeah, it'll be fascinating. They've got those two first-round picks and an opportunity to kind of turn things right back around. So, Brett Veach is one of the better talent evaluators out there. But it hasn't been the best track record with offensive skill guys.

1:40:01Todd McShay:Yeah. Yeah. Clyde Allaire, Edwards Allaire.

1:40:07Bill Simmons:That was tough.

1:40:08Todd McShay:And then the wide receivers. So, like, do you just go with... Andy Reid's always been really good identifying offensive linemen. They've been good identifying defensive linemen. Are they just going to go at one of those positions? Or are they going to try to make a splash and actually hit on one of these offensive weapons for Patrick?

1:40:25Bill Simmons:so if love somehow fell to nine and they didn't take him we just signed katham walker we're not taking him the next two teams are the bengals and the dolphins and then the cowboys at 12 ready to do the all-time victory party if the best guy in the draft fell to them at 12 this never happens usually if he gets to around seven eight somebody will trade up to take him i think would be how it plays out um i just don't see him going past seven or eight the other

1:40:54Todd McShay:If the commanders don't want him or don't see the value and get an offer, I think they could move out of that spot. They pick at seven, but they don't pick again until 77 in the third round.

1:41:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, so maybe they go backwards. So they could try to recoup that. Right. Yeah.

1:41:09Todd McShay:Maybe the Rams. What about the Rams? Wow. Right? He's sitting there at seven. We don't have to give the biggest offer to go from 13 to seven. We put him in the backfield. We get some good backs.

1:41:24Bill Simmons:You sure that's not the Cowboys just moving up five spots for them? They have two picks.

1:41:29Todd McShay:I think the Cowboys got to go defense, but yeah.

1:41:33Bill Simmons:You're talking about them like they're a rational franchise. This is Jerry Jones. I know. I know. Wait, Jeremiah Love's still on the board? We got to get him. Trade up for that guy. He's great. I just feel like that's like the classic splashy, we've won first take the next day kind of draft pick. The kind of move that they make.

1:41:55Todd McShay:Yes, they will definitely win first take and get up. I promise.

1:41:58Bill Simmons:Well, and that's regardless of who they take. Well, and that that leads to the Ty Simpson thing. You know, he's he's in like the low 20s. Seems like where people have on like around somebody taking a flyer at him between like 27 and 35.

1:42:13Todd McShay:Fascinating, man. One guy. Who's never drafted before. Right. But has played the position. but as one of the, like Orlovsky comes out and says, I would take him number one. Now everyone's pointing to he, they're both represented by CAA. And like, fine. I've been, I was texting with Orlovsky like a month ago about what we were seeing on tape. The funny part is, or the interesting part is I've probably been the highest, like even talking to like Daniel Jeremiah, like he and I were kind of going back and forth on, like I'm clearly higher on Ty Simpson than he is, but being rational about it, right?

1:42:53Todd McShay:With Ty Simpson, here's the problem. If you're a purist, right? And you grew up in Boston. Think about growing up baseball. It's romantic, right? Yeah. If you're a purist and you're someone who just studied the quarterback position your whole life and you put on the tape for Ty Simpson, it's like watching Willie Mays or one of the... You know what I mean? It's how the game's supposed to be played. It's pre-snap. It's identifying. It's control at the line of scrimmage. It's utilizing the motions pre-snap and tendencies on the defensive side to identify. Then post-snap, it's quick reads. It's everything's in rhythm.

1:43:34Todd McShay:Everything's on schedule. Ball's out on time. Throwing with anticipation. Hitting spots. Leading receivers. It's beautiful. But then you get to game nine or ten and the play starts to decline. Now, if I'm making excuses for Ty Simpson, it's, well, they had like the 126th best running game in all of college football, which is like mind-blowing for Alabama. Then you've got the pass protection that started to fail because Brent Venables came to town with that Oklahoma defense and kind of showed some weaknesses in how to attack it. From that point on, everyone was kind of doing some of the same things.

1:44:10Todd McShay:Then you got, he's taking a beating and he's got gastritis. And by the time he gets to the Rose Bowl, He's a 212-pound quarterback at the Combine. He was down to 190. And then your top wide receiver, star playmaker, who came in recruiting class with 1A and 1B, was Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State.

1:44:30Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:44:30Todd McShay:And he just disappears. So all those factors add up. And so if you're watching the tape into November, Ty Simpson's clearly better than Fernando Mendoza. Fernando Mendoza didn't play well against Iowa. or Oregon, or Penn State. But the fourth quarter after he made interceptions in all those games, late in those games, after that, when the game was on the line and all the pressure was there, he was perfect. He was awesome. And then you fast forward, I'm telling you, if you just watch the Ohio State tape of Mendoza, you're like, this guy's generational. The toughness, the decisiveness, he's on the move.

1:45:11Todd McShay:They're hitting his ass. They're getting after him, man. He got hit in that very first play. he looked like he should have been knocked out. Then later in the game, no one talks about it. That same defender, Caden Curry, comes and hits him in the end zone, hits the turf, and he just never flinched. So as the season progressed and he got more comfortable with that offense and the reads and the adjustment, he was phenomenal. Like all those top 10 teams he faced at the time, and he was like seven or eight teams, he was like 85 % completion. So you compare all those things And then you look at one guy who's six foot five and 232 pounds and did all those things, but, but progress, but in an offense where RPO stressing defenses, they've got to play honest.

1:45:57Todd McShay:He has one read, makes a decision, balls out and he's awesome at it, but it's not that easy in the NFL. And he had awesome receivers. Two guys who were going to be drafted. I just told you probably in the first two rounds and a third one who's, who might be the best of them. Charlie Becker came out of nowhere. Yeah. And two running backs that could be drafted. So all those things. And now you've got Alabama, right? 6 '1", down to 190 pounds, bucked up to 212. Couldn't stay healthy as one year as a starter. 15 starts, it means you are the outlier of outliers. Anyone with fewer than 25 starts, it's been a struggle.

1:46:33Todd McShay:Anyone with fewer than 20 starts, it's been an outright bust as a first-round picket quarterback. So it's this juggling of like, My eyes tell me Ty Simpson's every bit as good, in some ways better and more NFL ready than Mendoza. But history and general managers who have to assess risk are saying Mendoza's the safer pick. He's in that range of starts. He's in that range of size. He can run on a straight line. He won the big games. That's the debate. And so one person comes out this week, right? Norlovsky. And I don't think he's wrong with what he's saying in a lot of regards. And it's cool if you want him to be your number one quarterback ahead of Mendoza.

1:47:20Todd McShay:He's not alone. I've also talked to people in the league who would take Simpson over Mendoza. But A, the Raiders are taking Mendoza.

1:47:27Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:47:28Todd McShay:And B, I don't know why it has to be this huge. Like, it is the story. Like, the March Madness is going on. Everything on my timeline, every show I turn on is Orlovsky, CAA. How do you have Ty Simpson? He said that Mendoza didn't play in big games. It's pretty wild, you know, to see how one person can have these opinions, which are not wrong in a lot of regards, but are not shared by the majority of teams in the league, can now set off this brush fire, you know?

1:47:59Bill Simmons:See, I think it makes sense because people love the NFL draft and there was no controversy with the NFL draft and it's March 24th. I really think people just love arguing about the draft and we needed a moment for somebody to say something where everybody's like, wait, what? And then now we're off and now we're going and now we have some Ty Simpson stuff. I think that's really it. Right. Because you didn't mention when you were laying out the Mendoza case, like really, really smart, which teams love. They love when guys have like just these fucking crazy brains, which it seems like he has. So be able to like remember the entire offense right away.

1:48:34Bill Simmons:Like they love that shit.

1:48:36Todd McShay:And Brady's pulling the strings there, right? And Brady, I probably sees a lot of a young Tom in Mendoza. He was a two or three star recruit, depending on who you talk to. They wouldn't let him walk on at Miami. He had one offer coming out of Christopher Columbus High School in Miami. And it was to Yale, non-scholarship. He committed to Yale and then wound up getting an offer late from Cal. It was his only scholarship offer and he takes it. red shirts and kind of grows, you know, incrementally gets this opportunity at Indiana. And I said in the summer when we did our show, I said in the summer, this guy's a first rounder if he, if he develops and I think he will under Signetti and people thought I was crazy then.

1:49:21Todd McShay:But I was probably also last to market. It took that Ohio state game for me to go chips all in on, on Mendoza. So it's an unbelievable story. And I think Tom, you know, having spent a lot of time with Brian Greasy and knowing what Tom was up against at Michigan and seeing he kind of, he probably relates to what he's been through and then the mental part and the commitment to the game. Yeah, I can see why it's a no brainer for the Raiders that he's going to be picked. And I think he'll do really well in Kubiak system. That's the thing we don't talk about enough is Kubiak's a good fit for him and we'll, we'll hide some of his weaknesses and kind of just like Signetti and that staff did at Indiana, they will know what to do to protect him from what his weaknesses are while he develops.

1:50:06Bill Simmons:Well, they had the devastating Max Crosby cancellation trade where they were clearly trading this guy who, I don't want to say he's a bum knee, but I don't think it's a healthy knee. They were going to get two first round picks from him. He's heading into his 30s. That trade would have been amazing. So now I don't know what that is. Speaking of trades, by the way, with Simpson, so we saw this with dart last year and you were kind of hinting at it not quite predicting it but that somebody was going to get aggressive and maybe try to move up and try to grab them how what's a realistic range for you with simpson for somebody to be like like what number are we looking at where somebody's like we got to get this guy we got to trade up to here i think back half of the first round

1:50:50Todd McShay:anywhere in there now depending on what show you watch and i like getting ready earlier today and the show in the background, they're talking about like, well, maybe if Arizona moves back from three, they could take them at, you know, eight, nine, 10. Like, I don't know that it's going to be there. 16 is, it seems like the jumping off point. That's the Jets. Yeah. Unless the plan has changed, I'm, I am under, I know the plan is 20, 27 for the Jets quarterback. So I would say 17, barring something that's completely unforeseen at this point, 17, and I'm not saying that pick, but like when we get 17 and beyond in the first round is about where I think the range for him would be based off of where I evaluate him, but also like everything I just went through, what he is on tape versus he's an outlier.

1:51:42Todd McShay:He's going to be an outlier in a couple of regards. So I think that if it's Arizona moving in somewhere like the Giants did last year, I knew the Giants wanted to move up. But the funny part was in talking to Dayball offline, and really fascinating having spent a lot of time talking to brian dabble recently before he took the titans job like and then talking to uh mike borgonzi the gm of the uh of the titans and now they're working together but dabble's sitting there trying to talk him into taking jalen carter you know move back to three yeah they offered a boatload to go get cam ward and now dabble gets fired by the giants gets an opportunity to go work with the guy And he loves Jackson Dart.

1:52:24Todd McShay:He talked Joe Shane into moving up to go get him. And he loves Scadaboo. Those were his two picks last year. But now he gets to work with Cam Ward, the guy that they wanted to give away a whole lot to go get him. But the Giants, I kind of knew about two weeks out that this is the plan. The plan is we're going to stick at three and take Abdul. And the Shadour thing blew up. And I knew the behind stories and some of the things that happened in some of the meetings and it wasn't good. I didn't know he was going to fall to the fifth. I thought second round is probably where it's going to happen. But then you start to hear people in the league and you understand the why.

1:53:01Todd McShay:My point is the Giants played it perfectly. Let's get our guy here, just like the Cardinals sitting there at three. And then let's move up from, I think they're 34 in the second round. And let's move into that mid twenties range to get ahead of anyone else who could potentially try to come and get them if the opportunity presents itself. So I think if the Cardinals like Ty Simpson. So Eagles at 23, who are always like thinking ahead of time.

1:53:27Bill Simmons:Can we just turn this into three assets?

1:53:29Todd McShay:Yeah, and then Howie will move back to 34 and then move back into the first or something. Yeah.

1:53:32Bill Simmons:Because the other one I was looking at was the Jets at 16, tying into what you were saying earlier about how they care about 27, not 26. And if you could get Arizona to move up to 16 and get next year's first from them and flip like, you know, a second and a third, whatever. but now you have Arizona's first with the three firsts you already have. You're thinking about it.

1:53:55Todd McShay:If you're Arizona, who scares you? If the Jets are willing to move, that means they're not taking, Ty. Right. And then who scares you? 24 is the next team you look at and say... I'm just saying that multiple teams are trying to trade up to 16,

1:54:12Bill Simmons:and you're worried you're not going to get them if you like them. We don't even know if the Cardinals like them. But yeah, I felt like 16 would be in play. I'm always prepared for the Eagles the Browns because they don't care about next this upcoming season either they would probably think about it I wonder you mentioned the Titans about day ball and just you know that they have a really interesting structure because they're two guys that I didn't like as head coaches but I do like like I thought salad had a good job with the Niners I just think he's a really good defensive even when he left the Jets like they completely fell apart on defense the moment he left oh yeah day Dayball is just a great offensive coach.

1:54:48Bill Simmons:Probably had some bad luck. Maybe the wrong city for him. Maybe he shouldn't be a head coach. But I like the combo of them together where it's like just... I love it. You handle the offense. I'm going to do the team and the defense and we're going to work together. And I wonder, because Dayball was at Buffalo seeing how they were able to build around Josh and Cam Ward. I wonder what the lessons, good and bad, were for him with how they built the bills, right? Because ultimately, like, when they got Cook, I think that made Josh's life a lot easier in a whole bunch of ways. And I wonder if they would think that way and would love it for Tennessee.

1:55:27Bill Simmons:Like, let's do this. This guy's going to... Now we have the two game breakers and we can build around that.

1:55:33Todd McShay:I would be shocked if Brian's not pushing hard with Mike Borganzi, the general manager, and with Salah, to take Jeremiah Lovett for. I would be shocked. that doesn't mean it's going to happen. For all the reasons I laid out earlier, and do we want to make that financial commitment to a running back where we could go get a defensive end here?

1:55:57But I also, the best thing that happened to Cam Ward

1:56:01Todd McShay:is Brian Dayball took that job and didn't get a head coaching job with Buffalo or anywhere else. It's what he does best.

1:56:07Bill Simmons:It's like McDaniels last year was May. It was a miracle that that guy just wanted to be the offensive coordinator and like commit for a few years.

1:56:16Todd McShay:Right. And it had it been anyone else besides Cam Ward, I don't know how, how, you know, thrilled he would have been about, about doing it.

1:56:23Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:56:23Todd McShay:He wanted to work with him that badly. So now you, if you throw it and I, Schefter came out last week and said, I don't see it at Tennessee. I don't think it's going to be Tennessee. And I made a couple of calls and I, you know, I never want to call the source and they're never going to give me the information specifically on that. but I can see it both ways. I think there's going to be some internal debate, which is healthy, on what we do with that pick. They spent a lot of money, more money on free agency on the defensive side than they did the offensive side, which leads me to believe like the breadcrumbs, their plan, they've got everything in place with a really good defensive coordinator and a really good head coach as a defensive coach that we can go out and spend that pick on an offensive weapon.

1:57:08Todd McShay:So we'll see how it plays out. And they kept Simmons,

1:57:09Bill Simmons:which their defense might be pretty good next year. And you throw in Salah, you throw in how bad their coaching was last year, and they have an interim coach. It's just a mess, and they were a mess to watch. That's a team, I don't know if they could win the division, but when you think every year we have the fourth to first team and you're looking at candidates, I think they're definitely a candidate. It's not like... I totally agree. It's not like in the AFC South. Do you love any AFC South team? We have no idea with Daniel Jones. who knows what Jacksonville a year after a pretty good year for them then Houston with CJ I don't know I could see good stuff happen the last thing I just want to mention quick because normally teams shoot high on the offensive line especially in the top 10 but it's a bad offensive line year for like blue chippers and yet every year that doesn't stop somebody from being like look man we just need a tackle like this guy is 15th on our board but it still makes sense to take them at six because we're not getting a tackle otherwise.

1:58:10Bill Simmons:Do you see that happening with any of these guys?

1:58:12Todd McShay:I think it's almost going to be an exact mirror of what happened last year. It may start a couple picks later, or it could start at three with the Cardinals, like Francis Maui Noah coming out of Miami. The problem with this class is Maui Noah is an awesome player, phenomenal athlete, around 320 plus pounds, 330 pounds. But he's a right tackle. He's been a right tackle. He's going to be a right tackle. And in worst case, he's a guard. Then you've got Spencer Fano, who's a terrific athlete and plays like smart. And he like that energy he has and great zone blocker and all those things. But some teams are working them out as a center because he may be an elite center because he's got both.

1:58:53Todd McShay:He's got short arms. Right. And then you've got short arms. I got Will Campbell PTSD. Did you have to think about the short arms? did you see um mensch when we sat down with the with the patriots gm and and uh and i i you know i'm talking about you know you grew up a son of a hall of fame general manager and and you've watching film in lambeau field before take us through what you've developed and i ask a couple questions not not buttering up but like let's get let's start with the history of it yeah mensch comes in oh no grew up in andover you know he's a new england guy patriots fan everyone is life paid yeah he comes in with this haymaker off the top rope of you know i thought at the time when will campbell when you guys drafted will campbell he had short arms and i saw it on tape and you know sometimes with short short arms like if you don't see it on tape then i don't get caught up in it but i saw it on tape and then we fast forward to the super bowl and is he going to be your left tackle and the response is will campbell is our starting left tackle and i'm sitting there i'm like oh my gosh how do i recover but it was great he handled it well they've been adamant this is our left tackle there's no discussion there's no debate and if you look at him pre-injury and he was holding up just fine and you give him a second year and development and kind of the motivation from that i think he's actually going to be all right but that's the

2:00:20Bill Simmons:problem with how that Patriots season ended among many of the problems, including getting shellacked in the Super Bowl. We have no idea how healthy Will Campbell was, and we have no idea how healthy Drake May was, and they can't really tell us after the fact, right? Because they've got to file those injury reports, and once you do that... Well, I feel like they've kind of told us. They've kind of told us with Campbell. Yeah, and Campbell's even admitted, like, I have a torn MCL that I probably shouldn't have played with, but it's the playoffs. Drake May, I don't know if we'll ever get an answer.

2:00:51Bill Simmons:probably not. No.

2:00:52Todd McShay:Yeah, it would. Yeah.

2:00:53Bill Simmons:I think the answer lies in the tape and some of the plays they ran and did it run.

2:00:57Todd McShay:I think we know the answer. I think we know the answer, Bill. I mean, you watched it even more closely than I did. Like, that is not... The last few games and the last two games, it just, it wasn't, it wasn't the same. So.

2:01:11Bill Simmons:Yeah, even down to the plays they called for him were not the same. That's what made me the most suspicious. Like, rolling him out to the right where he could throw. Like they just didn't want to do it. Right. So that not anything where he might get hit, they didn't want to do it. Yeah.

2:01:26Todd McShay:And, and that was such a big part of what they were. Like I was, I told you I was at that bills game where they jumped out to the big lead. He was every bit of a running back early in that game when they got the big lead before they wound up giving, you know, um, they come back from the bills and just like his mobility is such a big part of what they do.

2:01:44Bill Simmons:So my last thing, and then we have to go. Um, I really want the Patriots to get a tight end. My dream for them would be 31, a tight end, but there's no tight ends. There's one guy who's going to go from, the guy from Oregon's going to go before they pick. Yeah. There's no chance they, there's no chance he, could he fall to the 20s and could they move up? Can I like dream about this for a second?

2:02:09Todd McShay:I just did a mock draft where Sadiq fell to 27 to the 49ers. And I went there because of George Kittle's injury. I don't think it's I'm not banking on it but I like if you're the I get it I don't to me he's not Tyler Warren and he's he's not Colson Loveland I think he's a really good player but I don't think he's at that level so as we're continuing to build if you're a Patriots fan it's like I don't know that I want to give up capital to go get a tight end I also will say this maybe get two of them on day three this class is weirdly They had 28 tight ends invited to the combine. It's the most in the history of the combine.

2:02:52Todd McShay:There's no elite guys, but like this Marlon Klein from Michigan, they just had him blocking when they threw him the ball. Underwood couldn't throw the ball, and it was a disaster at Michigan. So I like him. I like Sam Roush from Stanford. There's two SMU guys that can run. There's a lot of good tight ends. I feel like maybe you double up on tight end on day three and see if you can hit the jackpot with one of these kind of guys. So we'll see how it plays out.

2:03:20Bill Simmons:My guess with them, it was interesting that they got Buffalo's fullback. Right? Because I actually liked when they ran out of the eye. They just didn't really have the personnel for it. But I didn't understand why they didn't do it more in the Super Bowl. And with Dobbs, and if we think A.J. Brown's a possibility, that takes receiver off. But I just want them to have tight ends and blocking options and the ability to go big or small, depending on... That's what they didn't have last year. And I think the best teams offensively, and Seattle was a good example of this, and so was the Rams. These teams that could go bigger or smaller, depending on what the situation was, they had no flexibility to do that.

2:03:57Bill Simmons:I would like to be able to see them do that. It would be my dream.

2:04:00Todd McShay:They will this year. They will. It's the evolution. It's, you know, this is the first year and kind of... It's a brutal schedule. It's not a miracle, but... Yeah. I mean, you've been out in LA how many years, but you just sound like the people I'm surrounded by here.

2:04:17Bill Simmons:My whole life, basically. The good news is Miami and the Jets four times. The bad news is basically everybody else on the schedule. But you do have four games that should be pretty winnable. All right. Before you go, give me one completely insane prediction that's not that insane. A completely insane prediction that would make me go, oh my God. But then we could replay it on April 30th and be like, McShay fucking called this in the completely insane prediction section. Cole Payton, North Dakota State's quarterback, was a one-year starter at North Dakota State.

2:04:59Todd McShay:He was essentially Tim Tebow. Remember the role Tim Tebow had? Was it Chris Leak? his freshman year where he kind of came in off the bench and would rotate a little bit, would handle the inverted veer and the inside running. Essentially, he was a fullback and would handle short yardage, goal line, and some run plays, right? Yeah. He did that for three years at North Dakota State. He was a runner who was kind of utilizing this gimmicky, not gimmicky, but in a sub-package role, if you will.

2:05:32Bill Simmons:Yeah.

2:05:32Todd McShay:Gets the starting job this year. He's also a lefty. he's also got a tight upper body and the first 20 throws i watched of him and as i'm watching and i did his background of what he is i'm like oh tebow and i'm tim and i are good yeah um after tumultuous start to our relationship yeah but um but i just did not see it with tim tebow coming out and it became like this big thing so i had to get over the tebow effect right cole payton from north dakota state might be the third best prospect i'm not saying he's there now but a guy who could come in, kind of like Seattle was trying to use Jalen Milrow, short yardage, goal lines, kind of play that role and develop into a starter.

2:06:14Todd McShay:He's mobile. He throws the ball well on the run. He's deadly accurate, and it's the weirdest thing because all of his mechanics look horrible, like tight upper body, southpaw, all that. I think he could go ahead of Nussmeier and Carson Beck. You have him 65th on your

2:06:29Bill Simmons:big board. Yep.

2:06:31Todd McShay:I think he could wind up going in the second round. And I'll be shocked if he doesn't go in the third. and I'll be, I honestly think he could be the third quarterback off the board. And I don't think anyone's really talking about this guy.

2:06:43Bill Simmons:Gotta say, great name. Cole Payton. Just sounds like somebody who'd be good. Like, that sounds like a sports movie. Quarterback or NASCAR, right? Channing Tatum plays Cole Payton. That's a great name. So Carson Beck, even though he's in his mid-20s and had 100 college starts, you have him 100th. nobody's going to talk themselves into him in like the late second round or anything?

2:07:08Todd McShay:It could be, I don't trust. I don't, I don't trust him. I don't think he's unique because he's, he's a big pocket passer and you can be accurate and he played his best ball down the stretch. And he, outside of two games where he had multiple interceptions, he really protected the ball and did all a lot of the things that kind of cursed him. I like this experience. I like the size and I like the toughness and all those things. I just, I don't know. I call it a bad taste in my mouth. The elbow surgery. Why does Georgia, why does Georgia let Carson Beck go? They have plenty of money to bring him back.

2:07:47Like, I don't know.

2:07:48Todd McShay:It's going to be interesting to see. I've, I've heard the Steelers are kind of intrigued with him on day two and a couple other organizations. He'll go, he'll go on day two. But, um, but I, I, I would take Cole Payton before him.

2:08:00Bill Simmons:so it doesn't sound like you have your Tyler Shook yet

2:08:04Todd McShay:Cole Payton's my Tyler Shook

2:08:06Bill Simmons:but Tyler Shook you were like this guy could actually start next year watch what happens you were pretty adamant this is a different kind of this guy could be fun

2:08:18Todd McShay:yeah yeah

2:08:19Bill Simmons:so it's theringer.com slash McShay it's just an NFL draft smorgasbord and also the McShay show and then you're coming out to LA and you're going to do a bunch of live shows that we're going to do on Netflix. And, uh, yeah, I'm pumped. And don't forget about the newsletter, which is indispensable. And we did it.

2:08:41Todd McShay:We did a second round mock on that. It's going to be a lot of Intel coming up. It's going to be the additional like bonus stuff. So yeah, between the, the, the new site, the newsletter and the show, we, um, we're, we're pumped. We've got exactly what we need, man.

2:08:54Bill Simmons:And I'm going to have you on one more time before the draft. I'm sure there'll be a million things that change, but, uh, this is fun. Thank you. Thank you for getting me re-energized about this draft. That was kind of like lukewarm. You're welcome. Now I'm excited. Good to see you, McShay. Good. Good to see you, bud. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle. Thanks to McShay. Thanks to Gihau and Eduardo as well. Don't forget, rewatchables went up. We did The Nice Guys. LA Confidential coming next Monday. So you have five days to watch a really, really great movie before you do a listen for our little four-person podcast, which includes Andy Greenwald for this one.

2:09:29Bill Simmons:First time he's been on in a while. It was great to see him. Me, Andy, Sean, and Chris, we had a blast. So there you go. All right, I'm going to be back on this feed on Thursday with a lot of basketball stuff and maybe even a little baseball too. Stay tuned. See you on Thursday.

2:09:59I'm the first son you ever

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