NBA Lottery Karma Rankings, Jaylen’s Future, and a Blistering Wolves-Spurs Series With Nick Wright

24:16Bill Simmons:you try to imagine the guy in the game you're watching? I was trying to imagine him in the San Antonio, Minnesota game last night. I was like, well, all right, I could see him guarding Randall. I mean, I know this is going to sound pretty dumb or obvious. You know who Cam Boozer reminds me of? Guy named Carlos Boozer, his dad. Like, I thought he was a guy that is going to have a really solid 12-year NBA career. I think he's a better passer. Sure, the game's changed. But my point is a guy who I think of all the top prospects, Cam probably has the lowest bust potential, like the least likely to be a bust.

24:57But I think he's also the least likely to be an MVP. Like, and so that's why I'm not as high on him maybe as other guys.

25:04Bill Simmons:I would take Caleb second. Now I've reserved the right to change my mind. So you'd go to Bansa, Caleb, Peterson? Yeah. Peterson's interesting. I think Caleb's going to be unbelievable. that guy the same thing with Castle was similar where it's just like the guy's too competitive he's too athletic and he's too competitive those guys always win we see it doesn't matter what team it is what draft he's got that I know what that is and he's like a combination of like Sean Kemp and Chet I think he's going to be really special so I'd be careful passing on him but yeah for the honest thing if I'm in Atlanta now if I'm in 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 now I could really think about the Jalen thing.

25:47Bill Simmons:Because you think like now I could have, because Jalen Johnson, as much as I like him and I voted for him all NBA, he's kind of a 1B. I'm not sure he's a 1A. You could feel it in that playoff series. It's not like, hey, clear out guys, I got this. That's not the type of player he is. No, he's, his ceiling is like a better offensive Iguodala, right? Yeah, he's in like a better Jalen Williams, A guy who can do everything is a winning player, can definitely be a key part of a championship team. But if he's your best player, you've got no shot. No shot. No shot of winning a title. So what would you give up?

26:31Bill Simmons:How crazy would you get for Giannis? If I'm what team? Pick a team. If you're Miami, would you gut everything you had and all your picks? I don't know what that achieves. No, I know because I don't know what that achieves. If I, now all of a sudden Giannis is just in Milwaukee South. Like I, I mean, the Knicks would have been the one that were like, fuck it. We have a window. We got to do this, but the Knicks are going to make the finals. I think I don't, I don't see anybody stopping. And also I don't love any of the Knicks trades. Right. Like the, cause they traded their picks. No, I, if I were Detroit, would I give up you know I haven't done the trade machine on them.

27:18Bill Simmons:You're looking at Duren and all your picks basically. Would I give up Duren and all my picks? And I don't even know if Milwaukee if that's changing my destiny. Right if Milwaukee wants it. I think the easiest trade would be the reason I think the Celtics are very live here is because it's so easy. yeah he and Jalen and Giannis make the same amount of money you can you have a third if you need a third team Atlanta makes a ton of sense at like there's just by the way you can't cut out New Orleans New Orleans might be like we've always loved Jalen and all of a sudden they're in it like oh yeah they're capable of anything um yeah they are that's when we do this lottery karma thing.

28:00I've got something on that. So I, but no, I agree with you that Giannis is right now the fifth best player in the league and oddly...

28:13Bill Simmons:Does not have the fifth trade value. No, not at all. And I think there's teams that would maybe be like, we're good. Like OKC, San Antonio, I don't think those teams would trade for him. Well, let me, hold on. So that's an interesting, San Antonio's an interesting one. I think they love their culture and their young guys. I think they'd obviously love to win the title this year, but I don't think they'd feel like the season was a failure if they lost. And they're looking at the long runway. Not the season's a failure, but let's just say Minnesota beats them in six and Fox struggles the way he did in game one throughout the series.

28:54Bill Simmons:Then Fox is the fall guy after the series. Yes. And added bonus. Wimby gets pushed around a bit like he did in game one. You mean when he shoots five for 18 and short arms every big shot down the stretch like that? And well, and gets, you know, physically pushed around like that's the thing for Wimby is a he was exhausted at the end of that game. Falling down all over the place. He's not used to playing big minutes. And so he's doing all that. B, Gobert is strong as hell. And Nasri and Julius Randle are strong as hell. And they were pushing him around. I do wonder if San Antonio loses in bad fashion.

29:39If they feel like, listen, we're not abandoning our future or our plan. And we're keeping Harper, Castle, and Wimby. but De 'Aaron Fox, another contract and a bunch of our picks for Giannis. So, you know, so there isn't such a heavy offensive load on Wimby and oh yeah, by the way, we just become, you know, a better defensive team than OKC like that. That's something I would think about. I would.

30:11Bill Simmons:I'd be more excited to just play Carter Bryant more next year and ride this out. and Giannis feels like a panic move to me. Like Sam Presti to me, I always say, what would Sam Presti do? That is, Sam Presti would not do that. He would probably look at the Harper situation because we all love Harper. We're going to have to expound on him. But as like, okay, Fox was our training wheels. Now we got to send Fox off. Let's get like another score in that spot. Maybe somebody with a little more size and think about it that way. We got to take a break. I want to talk about San Antonio, Minnesota. And I think you and I are feeling similar about this series.

30:55Perfect.

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31:32Bill Simmons:Play your game. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. On the court, the pitch, the track, even the pool, professional athletes show extraordinary physical flexibility. For us normal people, we've got PayPal's flexible monthly payment plans. Pay nothing at checkout, then enjoy a flexible monthly payment plan that works for you with no signup or late fees. And it's available in millions of stores.

32:12Bill Simmons:pay monthly with PayPal. Subject to approval, pay monthly consumer loans made by WebBank, available through PayPal Inc. and MLS 910457. Learn more at paypal.com slash pay monthly. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who were such giant underdogs for the series and for the finals that Nick Wright has a story for us from his trip to Vegas. Well, okay. So I, so I went to Vegas to see the Benavidez fight. Who is one of the scariest boxers we've had in the last 20 years. Unbelievable. He broke the guy's face on Saturday night. No, he, he destroyed it. He broke his orbital. The guy, the guy we fought Zerto had never been knocked down, much less knocked out was a total warrior.

33:01And Benavidez just annihilated him. and I, by the way, I had been a V does by knockout nice little ticket with my buddy, Nick Shulman, the world's greatest poker player. Oh,

33:14Bill Simmons:that's like an automatic bet. And, but so I'm in Vegas Saturday morning and I'm on my way to the sports book or I'm at the sports book to bet Benavidez. And I, and I see the championship odds. And, And I see the, you know, OKC minus 125, whatever they were at the time. The Lakers at 28 to one and then 28 to one. Well, that's the California people come and they bet the Lakers. But that's still important context for what I'm about to say. Then I see beneath the Lakers, the Lakers who play OKC and Luca is injured. Yeah. 28 to one. Minnesota is 200 to one Saturday morning. Orlando was 400 to one. This was 12 hours after Orlando played the worst half of basketball in television history.

34:12There's never been a televised half of basketball worse than what they did. They're not even going to make.

34:16Bill Simmons:Can we count fictional shows for that? Four of 37 is worse than anything. I think Saved by the Bower probably had to work. Yeah, Saved by the Bower, Fresh Prince. We need a fictional basketball. So I'm like, Orlando's 400 to one. Yeah. I'm like, what the, I was like, so I I'm, I'm staring at it. I'm like, hold on. I watched, speaking of Giannis, Giannis suffer this same injury. Anthony Edwards did. He missed seven days, came back for game. One of the finals and averaged 35, 13 and six. I was like, I think Anthony Edwards might come back sooner than people think. I think that there is just always this weird specter of injury looming over Wimby.

35:02I was like 200 to one.

35:04Bill Simmons:He's seven foot seven. Any, at any point he can get hurt. Correct. I was like, it's 200 to one. So I'm like, I had one in poker the night before. So I'm like, I think I'm going to put like a thousand bucks on this. Yeah. I'm texting my buddies. All of a sudden, couple of my buddies want in, want in. And They're like, hey, see if they'll take$10 ,000 on it. And I'm like, okay, my guess is they won't, but I'm not sharp action. Like, you know what I mean? It's not like they're like, oh, this, like I come to Vegas to play cards. They see my history. I went a little in poker. I spill it off playing blackjack at four in the morning.

35:48They don't think all of a sudden I have like, you know, I have inside info. Yeah.

35:52Bill Simmons:Vacuum blackjack when they're vacuum. wonder you. Yeah, exactly. Give me your money away. They see on their cards. They're like, my God, we've got this guy,$1 ,200 in packs of Newports over the last year. And he's in the vacuum hours. So, so I walked to the window and I'm like, Hey, oh, and the Derby and I, and people are betting the Derby. It's a couple hours before the Derby. Yeah. And I say, I'm like, Hey, I'd like$10 ,000 on the Timberwolves to win the title. And the lady pulls it up and she's like, Oh, she's like, I'm going to have to get a manager. You should have said 9 ,000. I don't think, I think once it gets to five figures, they get freaked out.

36:28No. Well, what she said was any ticket that'll pay out more than a million, which 5 ,000 would have paid out a million because it's 201. Right. We have to get permission.

36:41Bill Simmons:Oh, Jesus. I'm like, okay. So I'm just sitting there. People are betting the horses. Ladies, like, I think they'll, she's like, I'm sure they'll take at least 5 ,000 of it. So I'm texting my buddies because we're going to split this ticket four ways. Like I, you know, here's what it is. I don't know. Five minutes later, guy comes. He's like, you're good. They printed the ticket. So I have in my possession on the Minnesota Timberwolves. This is unbelievable. 10 ,000 to win 2 ,010 ,000. They were 200 to one. It's been three days. What are they on FanDuel right now, Bill? 25 to 1? 35 to 1. That's a great investment.

37:22The ticket, right now, the ticket's worth $65 ,000. I mean, I would never hedge. I'll never sell it. And it'll probably lose. But it was just mispriced. It's just a mistake. Just a mistake. You could at least try to hedge that

37:37Bill Simmons:with OKC. There's moves you can make. Well, I'll tell you another thing that you will laugh at me about. I have, not from Vegas, but from a gambling app the day before the playoffs started, $1 ,000 just of my own money, 150 to one on the Los Angeles Lakers to win the title. So I just need a Lakers-T-Wolves Western Conference Finals, and I am free rolling. But I was watching last night, and I swear, like the watching Minnesota play so well and then almost blow it and then Champagny have a shot because I now think Minnesota is going to win the series and had he made that shot I think they would have lost in five I think it would have been such a stomach punch so look the Celtics had an awful loss on Saturday my daughter turned 21 I don't like to apologize to my listeners that often.

38:42Bill Simmons:I really regret not studying the Minnesota San Antonio thing way longer. The Edwards thing's a great point. It was basically the same. He came back in nine days. They said it was going to be 14. He was really only on paper, probably only missing game one. But the thing I realized last night I was watching and I was kicking myself. I was trying to think of 21st century hall of fame. Fuck you. Basketball teams. just teams that just have fuck you, all of everything they're doing, the way they're carrying themselves, everything. And I think the three I had were the pre-melee Pacers, which ended up the fuck you spilled in the crowd.

39:21Bill Simmons:But the way they carry, that first month before the fight, they looked like they were going to win the title and they looked like a more dangerous, scarier version of the 04 Pistons. The 07 Warriors in the We Believe season. Ironically, Steven Jackson on both of those teams. and I think the 2020 Heat had it too and it was interesting because when that was the series, I screwed this up a pod before where Dragic got hurt, but there was something about that Heat team that they were just they carried themselves like dragon slayers, like do you watch Survivor? No There's this Survivor contestant coach who calls himself the dragon slayer and he tries to carry himself like a fuck you guy and it always backfires on him There's certain teams that actually carry it and can do it.

40:07Bill Simmons:Yeah, the grit and grind and grit. The stuff they said after the game where Shannon's like, I'm going to fucking drive to the basket and Wembe might block some of them. I'm going to keep coming and he can either block them or I'm going to score, but I'm never going to stop coming to the basket. It's like, I think that's exactly how you have to play San Antonio. Keep coming. Right, and you can't, because here's the thing, a blocked shot does not kill a possession as much as a shot clock violation because you won't put anything up. Yeah, you might get the ball back. One of the biggest shots of the game last night was after a blocked shot.

40:44I think it was Conley, the corner three. Shout out Mike Conley, by the way. The Rockets could have had him. They probably saved their season. I would add maybe to your list the grit and grind Grizzlies who one time... That's another great one. They didn't have their best player for a game seven because he punched someone in the head. than game six of a series. That's a great one.

41:10Bill Simmons:So the 2011 Grizzlies, I apologize. That's the perfect ad for this. And so I, here's the thing why I feel so good about Minnesota. I don't think they played great yesterday. They were awful from the free throw line. Yeah, he was mad after the game. They were awful from the free throw line. McDaniels was in foul trouble the whole game. so he couldn't do all his shit. Ant was just getting back into the flow of it. You could see it, but he ran out of gas at the end and almost blew it. And he only played 25 minutes. Right. And they still, and by the, at some point, I think, Io is going to take those Bones Highland minutes.

41:55And Bones Highland, he hit the 1-3. They took it off, but he's 0-6. And you left out two other things.

42:02Bill Simmons:Nobody believes in us energy. They're like a football team. This is like watching an NFL playoffs. Finch, what he said after the last series, where he's like, they wanted to play us. This is what they wanted, and that really made us mad. And now this series, same thing, where the Spurs, huge favorites, the Darlings. That's one. The other is you don't really realize that sometimes until you're watching it. The Spurs are going to need Carter Bryant to come back and actually play real minutes, or they're going to lose the series because Minnesota has a physicality advantage with Randall and with Edwards.

42:38Bill Simmons:And, um, and to me, go, uh, San Antonio last night, three guards, Vassell and Wemby, it's not going to cut it. They're not big enough. Well, and, and there's, there's two, there's two other kind of, and I'm not like a X's and O's guys guy, but there's, it's very obvious. There's two things that jumped out to me before the series and now after watching game one. When Gobert's on the court, he really is going to give Wimby trouble on offense. However, him being on the court fully unleashes Wimby on defense because Gobert's never going to be anywhere but by the basket, so Wimby can just play safety and block everything.

43:23However, when Gobert is off the court, they can mitigate Wimby a bit because they can go five out. And then go five out because everybody can shoot. So that's the first.

43:37Bill Simmons:And then also multiple physical guys that can come in. You just want to beat him up. He's 22. He's never played 10 straight weeks of playoffs like this. Zach, I listened to Zach today. Zach said last night was the third most minutes he's ever played in any game in his career. It was 40. Wasn't 46. It was 40. and at the end he looked a little the final possession Derek Harper gets the rebound gives it to Wimby Wimby gives it right back to him like I know and he was gassed and they didn't remember the Denver the Saturday game against the back and forth with Joker same thing happened he got gassed in the OT right the game of the year and by overtime he's out he's just out of it and you are how many elbows to the ribs and he had those bruised ribs, which at the very end of the year, is he going to have from Gobert, Randall, and Nasri?

44:36Bill Simmons:How about how many guys going full speed, driving into him, knees hitting his legs, elbows, push-offs? I think their whole game plan is to beat the shit out of him. Which is why they couldn't blow that first game, Minnesota. They couldn't have done all that and then lose. Well, that's my five game rule where it's like if you lose that game, now you basically have to win five games at a seven game series. You're not going to win. You have to win. Correct. And so I just think Ant I'm going to say one other thing that I think is like psychologically just true and this is a problem probably for a lot of Kevin Durant teams to be totally honest.

45:20The best teams take on the personality of their best player, whether he wants them to or not. Like the, my, my team, the Kansas City Chiefs, you know why there's never any bulletin board material? Because Mahomes is the most boring press conference there's ever been. And everyone just falls, falls in line. Brady was like this too. Right. Brady, there's the, the thunder. Shea is kind of a unique personality. I don't want to say corny, but whatever it is, he's got his own thing. Everybody's like, you know what? We're doing group photos ruin group commercials we're we're doing that ant is so goddamn fearless yeah and confident that not only does the whole team take on the personality you know who i think it is great for is gobert who gobert is just like man i've just been a fucking punchline everybody make me my own team when i was in utah it seemed like sometimes my own teammates didn't like me the inside the NBA makes fun of me.

46:24Draymond chokes me. I don't get the respect. And now -

46:27Bill Simmons:I started COVID. Yeah, well, that was, I mean, that wasn't great. That was not great. And now, like, it's like, I've got the toughest crew. And guess what? Joker, come deal with me. Wimby, this is for, Gobert's gonna be in the Hall of Fame. And this is the - everyone's in the could be the what'd you say everyone makes the hall of fame though right i understand uh but four-time defensive player he's gonna make this is the moment where he can really puff his chest out and doing it against like i don't know if wimby's his protege but you know this they're both french like he's known him since he was a kid like i don't know i think minnesota's dangerous a little big brother a little brother thing to that like Like when you know somebody when, you know, when they were 12 and you were 25 or whatever it is, like you're always going to kind of see them that way.

47:25Bill Simmons:What you just described with the Go Bear thing with Ant, it's one of my favorite basketball things. The best one ever for this was Bill Lambert, who ends up on a team eventually with Mahorn. And then Isaiah, who was probably the toughest guy of the 80s, even though he was six foot two and that whole team. And then all of a sudden, Lambert's like, by 1990, Lambert's like, I think I can fight Charles Barkley. And gets like, he's throwing actual punches with Barkley. He's clotheslining dudes. That, you know, when you, you could do that when you have those guys around you. And then in the early nineties, those guys weren't around him.

48:00Bill Simmons:And what happened? The Knicks, they come in, the Riley Knicks, and they basically just snatch their souls like a boxer. but it's it's so authentic from aunt jayden and julius randall those guys are like we're badasses and we're gonna beat you up that it is infectious for everybody randall and the joker fight seemed like randall was gonna or their near fight seemed like randall wanted to fight everybody in that yeah he definitely has it it's a tough day yeah and so i just i don't know man I am. So here are my concerns. Yeah. Can they ramp up Edwards's minutes enough? They're relying on zombie Mike Conley who played a good game six and played decent minutes for them yesterday.

48:45Bill Simmons:But old guys in a series always makes me nervous. Um, what's going to cut as I going to be able to come back and actually play the Shannon thing, what he brought to the table in different Chenzo's place. I kind of liked like just, it just felt like another relentless guy who just all he wanted to do was ball and get to the rim. San Antonio, three-point shooting is always going to make me nervous with them. The youth and the inexperience, including the coach. And then the fact that they need Carter Bryant, who's a rookie. I don't even think he's 20 yet, but they're actually going to genuinely need him in this series.

49:19Bill Simmons:And then the big thing is Fox because Fox killed them yesterday. And I felt like they didn't want to bench him because they didn't want it to become a story, but they should have. and they should have played Harper down the stretch. I'm not going to say Harper's better than Fox, but Fox was so bad in that game. And it's going to be a story now because he knows he'll be the fall guy if they lose. Yeah, the Fox thing's really disappointing. I've, I lived in Houston when he, we've talked about this a bit. My son was a big time high school and then college basketball player. And so I was in a lot of the same AAU events as De 'Aaron Fox.

50:00Yeah. And he's just a little bit older than my son. I mean, I watched him score 40 points in the first half of a running clock AAU game. I've never seen anybody like him on the court. And so I've always, I rooted for him in Sacramento. Yeah. I've always liked him. But he is the fulcrum of this series. Because I don't care about Harrison Barnes' experience. Harrison Barnes is not a key part of the rotation. Luke Cornett has experience. He's a backup center. The only guy with playoff experience that should be on the court in crunch time is Fox.

50:36Bill Simmons:That you would trust, yeah. And if he's not, if he's not up to it, it's such, you're going to have moments like the end of last night. Can we spend a minute talking about the very end? Also, he's going against Mike Conley instead of Io. What happens if the Io comes back? Like, this should be, that should have been the easiest game in the series for you. What did you make of the final possession for San Antonio? Young team, I'm calling timeout. A lot of times I like to let the clock go in that situation. I think you do it if you have an older team, experienced team. Like, if you're the Knicks. Young team, I'm calling timeout.

51:14Bill Simmons:And I didn't think Champagne's shot was going in, even though it was wide open and it was the best possible shot they could have gotten in kind of that Harry Carey kind of situation. I would have called timeout, but it's like staying on 12 and blackjack. You kind of have to decide, is this who I am with this moment? You can't just be like, every time I do something differently. So that's apparently what they do. So I have two takes, I guess. if I'm Mitch Johnson and I see Harper get the rebound and throw it to Wimby, the moment I see that, no, the moment I see that Wimby has now just passed it back, timeout.

51:58Yeah. Like if he threw it to him and Wimby's ripping up the court, like, all right, you know what? Win or die with what this guy decides to do. Either way, it's an important moment for him. But once he gave it back, I'd be like, okay, let's talk it over. my other I normally think down to go for the three because overtime like try to get the win it felt to me like because the one time I am a bigger fan of playing for overtime is when the other team has just absolutely melted down

52:32Bill Simmons:well and also has a guy on a minutes restriction who's their best guy I know Castle had fouled out which works against it but But just like when LeBron hit the three in game three against Houston, it was 100 % that if Houston did not win in regulation, they were losing in overtime because it was such an emotional devastation that you were there. Minnesota was up seven with a minute and a half. But the staters say their momentum doesn't matter, though. I don't give a shit. There are certain things that you just... You know. You know it every time, especially if you're in the building for that. Right.

53:12If you blow it, if you're a big underdog that had a game one and then lost it, but, and it goes to overtime, you're, it was.

53:20Bill Simmons:Pritchard missing the three in the corner. I knew we were going to lose. Game was over. And so I just, I wouldn't have hated a timeout draw. And the other thing is this, here's the thing that timeout allows for you to have. If you are like, you're saying San Antonio trying to win. and also trying to win next year and like develop something. A good moment for Wimby either way. Hey man, drawing this up for you. Win or lose. We know you're 5 for 18 and they're going to put Rudy Gobert in now that we call timeout. All right, so that's a fair point. That's a fair point. Keeping Gobert off the court.

53:59But this is the issue with them

54:01Bill Simmons:is who is your, I'm going to create a good shot going downhill for us on our team. And the answer is it's Dylan Harper, who's 19 years old. Even in that moment when he got the rebound, five years from now, he's going to know in his head exactly how much time is left. And he's off. He gets that. He doesn't throw it to Wemby. He's just going because he knows like I have eight seconds. I got to go. He's 19. He was like, hey, oh, shit, there's seven seconds left. And you can see it the way that's the problem with relying on. By the way, I think I've been calling Dylan Harper, Derek Harper. You did it once.

54:32Listen, listeners of this podcast are used to old guy things like that,

54:37Bill Simmons:so it's fine. I have a really important question for you about this series. Yeah. Who do you think OKC wants to play after they watch that first game? What a great question. I was thinking about this all day, and I don't even have an answer, but I think they would want to play Minnesota because San Antonio was such a weird matchup for them. But after watching that game, I think I'd be afraid of the fuck you with the Minnesota team. Man, it's going to feel, if Minnesota wins this series, it will feel a little team of destiny-ish. And we assume Ant will be, by the end of it, in the best, like, the healthiest he's been.

55:26That team, I would want nothing to do with.

55:29Bill Simmons:How about the run of beating Joker and beating them to the point that Shams is on SportsCenter the next day going, they'll take calls on everyone on the team except Jokic. That's round one. Round two is we've cut the legs out of this Wemby juggernaut that everybody was just assuming it was going to be. Then round three, you beat the back-to-back potential champs who've just won, I think, 140 games in two years or whatever it is. And then round four, you beat the Knicks. It's about as good of a run as you're going to have. Well, it certainly would be as good. It would be as good of a run to a finals as we've had since Dirk's.

56:13Bill Simmons:Dirk in 11 or Hakeem in 95. Hakeem in 95 is the all-timer. Oh, yeah. That's my favorite. But this team is a 6-2. Yeah. And by the way, Hakeem in 95 also ended with the Knicks. Well, here's the other question. Well, answer that one. No, the team in 95 ended with the magic. Sorry, go ahead. So who do you think they're rooting for? I think they'd, as crazy as it sounds, because San Antonio owned them, I think at this point, they'd rather play San Antonio. Who do you think the NBA is rooting for?

56:48Bill Simmons:Because I think you could make the case it's better for the NBA if Minnesota wins this series. Because Wemby is already going to happen. Wemby is inevitable. But Minnesota elevates Ant. Yeah. And it gives, I think that is true. And I think there is, there is a authenticity and charisma to Ant that is just infectious. Yeah. And that is impossible not to be drawn to. And it is, I also feel like Minnesota winning it gives a lot of fan bases hope. Because Minnesota is not considered, they're just smartly put together. They did get a number one pick in the draft. Yes, Ant's a great, great player, don't get me wrong.

57:40but they don't look at him like an alien, like Wimby. It's not like, okay, see, it's like, oh, well, yeah, they have a billion picks and pulled off this heist. It's like, no, actually we had a smart GM. We just lost the most improved player in the league. We left our team. We lost him and had to replace him in Nikhil Alexander Walker. And we were fine. So I think that is, I think Minnesota winning it. I also, again, as your audience, as I just told them, you know, have a half a million dollar worth of equity in it. So I guess maybe I'm a little warped.

58:14Bill Simmons:It's an awesome story. I could not believe. Sometimes I watch, like, you know, right away with a playoff series, Orlando, Detroit, it was just clear they were even. And you could watch game one and I'm like, oh, shit, this is going to be a good series. Boston, Philly, game three was the game that worried me. And then Embiid came back and messed them up for a game. But game three, even though the Celtics won, I was like, ah. they seem really comfortable against us. Like this is a bad, bad sign. And I think that game yesterday, I don't think it was a fluke. Castle fouling out, you can point to. Fox was terrible.

58:48Bill Simmons:No Carter Bryant. Those are three things they can fix. But I agree with you. I think Minnesota could absolutely win this series. And gun to my head, I think I would pick them. Listen, I think it is. Minnesota was like plus 800. and then the Ant News came down and they were down to like plus 400 and then right before tip-off was down to like plus 350. Yeah. And now, right now, I think they're like plus 160. And the only reason I don't think it is even is because it's already, they started as such dogs, it hasn't totally fully overcorrected. But I think... Plus 176 right now. Okay, plus 176. I think that's fair considering they have three home games left.

59:36Bill Simmons:The guy's come back. We got to take a break and we have two more big topics. All right. Pretty good NBA playoffs so far. In case you didn't know all playoffs long, I'm looking at the slates, sharing my favorite picks on Twitter. I almost hit everything last Friday and ended up Tatum gets hurt in the third quarter and doesn't hit his points rebounds over, which he was very close on. Everything else hit. This is what happens, but this is also why same game parlays are so excited to do. I'm posting my picks on Twitter, usually for the Wednesday games and then maybe Friday over the weekend. So I'll be looking at San Antonio, Minnesota, putting some sort of pick.

1:00:15Bill Simmons:I really think Minnesota every game is a live underdog because they are absolutely convinced that they can beat San Antonio. So stay tuned for that pick. When I bet, I bet with FanDuel, a brand I trust. Easy to build your NBA bets on FanDuel. You know you're getting great odds, payouts on your parlays, many boost options, and you're going to get your winnings instantly. FanDuel, play your game.

1:01:00can self-inject Trimphia, proper training is required. Trimphia is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis.

1:01:22Bill Simmons:Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Trimphia today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit trimfiradio.com. This episode is brought to you by Viore. When it comes to clothes that score high in both comfort and style, Viore is my MVP. Sunday performance joggers, oh yeah. They have the perfect I could watch a game and then go out to dinner vibe. And the meta pant, that's my number one I need to look like I tried option. Get 20 % off your first purchase at viore.com slash Simmons and discover the versatility of Viore clothing.

1:02:01Bill Simmons:Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. All right, I want to do lottery karma rankings with you, but you wanted to do LeBron and the Ringer 100 quick. So go ahead, you have the floor. Yeah, well, I don't know how quick. You're going to have to cut me off. Make it kind of quick. I know where you're going with it. I just have a request to the founder, CEO, and president of the Ringer to convene an emergency ranking session and be like, hey, real quick, everybody. I just want to do a status check. Do we still think all the old guys are better than LeBron? Because all fucking year I've had to look at this and see, oh, Steph Curry's better than LeBron.

1:02:44That's cool. Kawhi, he's obviously better than LeBron. Kevin Durant, oh my God, he's clearly better than LeBron. James freaking Harden, better than LeBron. I'm looking at it. And I don't know. I live in New York City. I saw Steph Curry yesterday at the Met Gala. Kevin Durant, I didn't see him, but I know what he's doing. Hanging out somewhere, ruining a locker room via Twitter. Kawhi Leonard is winning our buddy Pablo Pulitzer. James Harden's going three for nine in a game seven. And LeBron's throwing goddamn alley-oops to his son in the same game he hit a series-clinching three. And I got to say, see, he's not a top 20 player in the league.

1:03:22Give me a break. Can LeBron please be the highest ranked old guy? Please.

1:03:28Bill Simmons:Well, we do the list every month and it's a snapshot of where everybody is at that moment when we do the list. And I'm sure he'll be much higher when we do the list again. I think we need to add another list though. Which, by the way, is always great content. But we have the Ringer 100. That's over here. So somebody like Embiid's not going to do well in the Ringer 100 because he plays 30 games a year. Like at some point, you got to... Durability has to become a huge part of the ranking. I think we should start a list of best guys. If I know I'm getting them 100 % healthy for one playoff series, what's your list?

1:04:04Bill Simmons:And then LeBron moves up really high on that list. I think by that metric, first of all, I hear what you're saying about durability really matters. Not for the ringers. Favorite child, Steph Curry. He can miss 35 games. Nobody cares. He's got to be top 10. neither here nor there. Fair. If that were the list what you said exactly, I think LeBron right now is still a top eight guy. What you said. You get him fully healthy. I think he's 14 to 15 range, but you could talk me into 10, 11, 12 just because how fucking smart he is. Yeah. And that Houston series, and I should have probably talked more about it on this pod, but Houston was so disgraceful.

1:04:50Bill Simmons:with the whole everything. It was also brutal. It was, I mean, it was so mad about this. It was the two critical moments in the series were Friday nights, which are terrible for TV shows and pods. Yeah, you're right. Game three, the steel in game time three is a Friday night. And then the masterpiece in game six is a Friday night. So it's just bad for content. But it was, I, I understand. How many times have we seen him just do that to a team? where it's just like Jordan would do it with like his prowess. LeBron kind of will do it with his prowess, but his brain. And he just kind of unlocks the other team.

1:05:29Bill Simmons:And you give him a team like that messed up Rockets team with no point guard and a weird coach. And I'm not sure the chemistry was great. And it's like fucking red meat for LeBron. No, yes. And that's why. And so that's why I like is Cade Cunningham better than LeBron right now? Yeah, sure. Of course. He's Cade Cunningham. He's first team all NBA. Got it. But Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey, all these guys who are better than LeBron, even by, I would say so, could not have after a game and a half just been like, oh, here are the fatal flaws of Houston. And now you can't win.

1:06:12And I am going to, I am in the, I'm going to be in such full control. I'm creating memes with little kids on the bench. I'm mortifying Shingun in front of his teammates saying, everyone else can complain about me flopping, but not you. All your teammates can, but not you. I'm doing all of this. And it is juxtaposed to one of his primary rivals of the era. The story around him being, wait, he's on an underwater treadmill during game three.

1:06:48Bill Simmons:Yeah. Wait. It's tough. The team, and I like KD a lot, but oh yeah, as it turns out, him shit-talking his team, actually bad for chemistry. And it did kind of hurt the locker room. No, we learned on an ESPN.com feature today that the young guys on the team are used to criticism, so it didn't bother them as much as you'd think. In that same feature - I would have fucking hated him after I read that. And I'm playing basketball with him, and I've been like, fuck this guy. Dude, of course. but also that feature was wild because that feature also said internally, the Rockets view Reed Shepard with Steve Nash upside.

1:07:27You know what Steve Nash could do early in his career dribble and pass like, like even. And so I, so yeah, I mean, I never got that off my chest. I'm glad you did too.

1:07:39Bill Simmons:And I do think we should have a, I know I'm getting you 100 % healthy for this playoff series list. Yeah. It would be good. I don't know what number he'd be, but he'd be, I don't think I would have him as high as eight, but he'd be okay. Okay. Lottery karma power rankings. Let's go. I first wrote this column in 2007, back when my fingers worked, I had more things on there. Um, the, basically the concept is who should win the lottery and we have four chances. They do the lottery for the first four picks. Yep. The big questions, I used to have more questions, but, uh, for karma, number one, is your team overdue to win the lottery?

1:08:18Bill Simmons:Great. So Utah has never moved up. That's the team I would say is overdue. Indiana, I don't think has ever had the first pick. That would be another one. Has the team's big picture game plan made any sense? So Sacramento, for instance, paying the luxury tax for one of the worst teams in the league and not having a future, they would count as not making sense. Like the Bulls. The Bulls. It's a not making. Well, the Bulls actually make sense because they're like, we just want to cheap out every year and our fans are going to pay for tickets. Yeah, I don't know if Ayo was that expensive. He probably could be useful.

1:08:55Bill Simmons:$7 million a year was too pricey. Got to cut that out. Kobe White had a playoff moment, but go ahead. Sorry. This one's a big one. Did they handle last season with dignity? Oh, that's going to be a tough one for teams this year. A tough one for a few of these. number four did they ever make you say why can people divorce their spouses but they can't divorce their teams if any of these teams that we have made one of their fans say that to another fan we have to measure that in the karma rankings then finally do you honestly believe the karma gods would feel bad for this team is our fifth one that doesn't happen all the time but I think Indiana would be a good case of oh man they were in game seven in the finals and their best guy blew out his Achilles.

1:09:45So is that the full list of rules? Because I have a question.

1:09:48Bill Simmons:Those are just five questions, kind of thought starters to think about. Is there any factor of it would be catastrophic for the league if this team won it? It's a good ad. I think I used to have it. Catastrophic. So you're talking OKC specifically. Yes. Yeah, it normally would not apply. so we have that covered I'll give you the categories because we have that covered and I'll just give you my list and you can be my conciliary for the list first category is no karma points whatsoever so you're a big goose egg OKC is our first team they're in the 12th spot right now they have a 1.5 chance to win there's also a scenario where OKC gets in the top 4 and Indiana stays in the top 4 aka the Clippers apocalypse where they would follow up by some sort of ruling the next day but yeah OKC's had in the last 20 years second, second, fourth and third so they've had some lottery I give them no karma points at all they're really good they're probably going to win the title again they don't deserve to get a top four pick the other one I have in there and tell me if I'm right and I say this with advanced apologies to the Maverick fans who love Luka and did not want to trade him.

1:11:14Bill Simmons:They got Cooper flagged last year. And I think that was the makeup call for the horrible trade. Nico got fired. They just brought him a Messiah Uharry. Things are okay. Kyrie's going to come back. I think they used up all their karma points last year with the flag thing, but I'm willing to accept other arguments. Nope. I have no other arguments, but I think I don't think they used up the karma points for the flag thing. I think they had karma points even after winning the flag. So you think they have residue karma points? I think they did. And then I think Nico Harrison said, and I quote, I hope people are seeing the vision now.

1:11:56Bill Simmons:Oh, that extinguished the karma points. They were like, you gotta be kidding me. this guy. So I'm with you. They're out. All right. So they have the eighth spot. They have a 6.7 % chance to win. 45.2 for top four. No karma points for them. By the way, they'll get the seventh, eighth pick. They're going to get a great guard. They'll get somebody really good. All right. Next category is a small vial of karma points. Charlotte, who's in the 14th spot, 2.4 % chance to move up. But they've picked Khan was the third pick, Miller's second, and LaMelo's third. They don't really need another top four pick.

1:12:37They don't need another top four pick. You do give them credit, though.

1:12:41Bill Simmons:For the dignity of the season. They really put together a smart team. And the... Well, I mean, a smartly constructed roster. Yes, exactly. Trying to set me up. Yeah. And also the fact that those guys, if you redrafted, they made smart picks. Yeah, they went three for three. You could argue Halliburton for LaMelo, but nobody would have taken Halliburton. Nobody would have taken that at the time. That's a different type of thing. So yeah, so they made the right pick in those spots. So they get a little karma for how well they've run the team the last couple years. Yeah. Next one is Miami, who's in the 13th spot.

1:13:20Bill Simmons:They're not going to win anyway. they haven't picked higher than 10 since 2008 they did get the decision and all the stuff with LeBron I think they're still dining on the karma points from that I had them at zero karma points just in general but Bam scoring 83 points on the tanking wizards I think they won karma points for that so I'm going to give them a little vibe I was so hoping you were going to go there yeah that is correct they get points for that So if they get in the top four, it'll be like, oh, it's because of the BAM 83. It is because they said, oh, you're going to shamelessly tank, are you, Washington?

1:14:00Yeah. Well, we're going to scarlet letter you.

1:14:02Bill Simmons:Yeah. We're going to show you there's a penalty for trying to lose basketball games. And then unapologetic afterwards. Unapologetic. And the penalty is roughly, and again, this off the top of my head, the 374th best scorer in the history of the NBA is going to score 83 points on you. And you're just going to eat it. So I'll give them a little karma for that. Memphis in the sixth spot, 9 % to win, 37.2 for top four. So Ja was the second pick, and Triple J was also a top five pick. They also took Kevin Love 5 and Thabit 2. From 95 to 2002, they picked 6-3-4, 2-2-2-6-4. They've had 12 top six picks in the last 30 years, the Grizzlies franchise.

1:14:5512 top six picks?

1:14:57Bill Simmons:In the last 30 years. This is their second teardown slash rebuild in 7-8 years. Sorry, Chris Vernon, it's true. Karma points for... wasn't their fault. Jaw flamed out. Everyone would have taken them second. And I don't know what they really could have, what they really could have done differently. So they get points for that. They're one of five teams that have never made the finals. And recently LeBron crapped on their city. And I think they get points for all three of those things where if they won one of the top four picks, I don't think people would be that upset. So I'm going to give them a little vile.

1:15:30Can I give them a little extra?

1:15:31Bill Simmons:Yeah. Okay. We can move them into the next category if you want. I would like to rep for Memphis for a moment. Let's hear it. So my sister-in-law lives in Memphis. I go there a lot. LeBron's comments really, really hurt the feelings of folks in that city in a way that I thought was a little too much, but it really bothered them. Yes, it is a very tough city, but it is a prideful city. And they did everything they could to really support and love the Ja Grizzlies. And through no fault of the, in my opinion, the organization and certainly the fans, Ja screwed the whole thing up. And... So you're...

1:16:22Bill Simmons:We'll move them higher. Okay, you're selling me. Yeah, I would like Memphis to have another shot at this. And so, yeah, I would like to... All right, we'll move up. So we'll revisit a little bit later. So that list was just Charlotte and Miami. You know, the thing about the LeBron comments, it was almost like a sucker punch. It was like somebody punched them from behind as they're just walking down the street and they just woke up the next day like, what happened? LeBron punched you in the back of the head. What? Why did he do that? Like there was no warning at all. And listen, as it turns out, because I then followed that story probably closer than most, man, NBA guys really do hate that hotel.

1:17:05Bill Simmons:That's it. It all comes down to the hotel. That's all that matters. Just build a four story Mandarin and you're good. It's just the hotel. Yeah, that's it. But LeBron, he was golfing. He was trying to make people laugh. He should have just really focused his critique on just the hotel. It wouldn't have hurt as bad. So yeah. I didn't mind it because I think LeBron's, one of his issues over the years is like, I don't feel like we see the real LeBron in some of this stuff. Authentic LeBron that I'm sure he's actually like versus what's presented to us. And I thought in that golf video, I think that's what he's like.

1:17:40Bill Simmons:So I was like, I wish he did more of this. But then he ended up making an entire city feel terrible for a week. Everybody got mad at him. All right, next category, a soup cup of karma points. So Milwaukee is in the 10th spot, 3.0%. Top four would be 13.9. And ironically, they get the worst of their pick or Atlanta's pick or the Pelicans pick that goes to Atlanta. Yes. So I don't even know how to do the karma points here because if they go into the top four, Atlanta takes the pick anyway. I'll give them a little though. They need two teams to jump. Ideally, both of them to go in. Yeah, they need both picks to go in.

1:18:18They need both teams. So they need a lot of help. Here's, yeah, I'm fine with them not having a ton.

1:18:26Bill Simmons:Yeah, yeah. And here's why.

1:18:32Everyone in the media has landed on, geez, Giannis, enough already. Ask for a trade. Move on. All the pressures on Giannis. When everyone, I think, acknowledges, yes, it's best for Giannis to move on. It's also best for Milwaukee to move on from Giannis. It's best for both parties. And there is, so there should be just as much, if not more pressure on the party that actually has to execute the trade to be like, you know what, Giannis, we're going to move on from you. But they don't want to be a bad guy. And everyone's like, well, of course you don't want to trade Giannis without him demanding it.

1:19:13And Giannis is like, well, I don't want to be a bad guy either. So I just think, pardon me, the organization hasn't been great. Also, Jimmy Haslam bought into the team. Karma's not coming his way anytime soon. So yeah, they don't need any extra karma points.

1:19:29Bill Simmons:I forgot about the Jimmy Haslam. So we could move them back then. That's fine. Yeah, put them where you had Memphis.

1:19:37Bill Simmons:Yeah, the Giannis Milwaukee thing was like the benevolent version of the Justin Baldoni-Blake Lively lawsuit that finally got settled. Neither one wanted to admit that they were the one that wanted to settle it, which is basically where we are with the Bucs. Okay, next one is Sacramento. I was very curious where you were going to have it. Fifth spot, 11.5%. They had the fourth pick in 22, Murray. They had second in 18, Marvin Bagley. One pick ahead of Luca. Luca. And then... Spade said Luca's a big market guy. Can't do that. Sacramento wasn't a big enough market. Can't take him. Got to take a more loyal, worse player.

1:20:17One of the craziest takes I've ever heard.

1:20:20Bill Simmons:He's like, how can Sacramento fans feel worse about this? How about this podcast interview from eight years later? And then Fox was the top five pick. So from 2009 to 18, they picked 4, 5, 7, 5, 7, 8, 6, 8, 5, 2. And I'm just tired of this team and this franchise. But the karma points, and this is why they're in the soup cup, their fans, this 20-year run for them, just for the fans only, there has to be a significant amount of karma points. This is 20 years of just... They've never had the number one pick, right? Never had it. Oh, no, they had it once. Never Nervous Purvis. Oh, okay. So yeah, that was late 80s?

1:21:06Bill Simmons:89. So they haven't had the number one pick in 35 years. They've certainly been bad enough to get it. There's six teams that haven't had the pick. Denver, Miami, Utah, the Hornets, the Lakers, and the Pacers. The Lakers not having ever had the number one pick and having had nine number one picks on the team and their history is just bananas. Yeah, I'm fine with that for Sacramento. Okay. Now for a special part of today's episode where we unpack a six-pack or rather six of the biggest things happening on and off the court during playoff season. Brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA and a superior light beer.

1:21:50Bill Simmons:I had a couple of them last weekend and it really is superior. Let's get started. Here's my six pack. Six possible trade candidate fall guys for round two. As round two evolves here over the next two weeks, who not only might take some of the blame for a playoff loss, but also it would open the door for them to potentially be trade bait to improve the team. I'm going to rank from one to six for the six pack. Number one, Jared Allen on Cleveland, because if Cleveland cannot get by Detroit, that will mean they probably have to decide between Mobley and Jared Allen as they're quote unquote big. Maybe you could trade one of them to either change the team, get somebody like Giannis if you put Mobley on the table, or just trade Jared Allen for somebody who's a little bit cheaper, but I think Cleveland would have to decide between those two guys because over and over again, it would have been the same story with them.

1:22:47Bill Simmons:That's one. Number two, De 'Aaron Fox, which Nick Wright and Ty talked about on the Tuesday pod. If he just cannot rise to the challenge against a Timberwolves team that has zombie Mike Conley and Ayatissou Mou, who's battling injury, if he can't figure out a way to really impact that he would be a potential guy. Maybe they turn him into a shooter or somebody with more size. Number three, Nas Reed. Um, I don't know if anybody on the, nobody believes in us. Um, Timberwolves would even be on the trade block, but this would be the one guy you would maybe think about because, uh, for what he's making and doesn't play a ton of minutes and you have go bear and you have Randall and maybe you could flip him into, um, more guard help or something else, but I'm not even sure I really believe in this one.

1:23:36Bill Simmons:Number four, Evan Mobley, for all the same reasons I mentioned with the Cavs. Number five, Carl Towns on the New York Knickerbockers, just because if they somehow blow this Sixers series, I assume there will be a fall guy in the Knicks and Giannis trade rumors, and he's the logical person that would be in a trade. I actually like the way he's playing in the playoffs, but I had to mention him. And then number six, I have Isaiah Stewart on the Pistons, who reasonable salary. He's making like 15. Really good advanced stats could probably be the starting center for somebody. And maybe you see that his usage gets yanked around on Detroit with Durant.

1:24:14Bill Simmons:Sometimes they get smaller. Maybe that's a piece they would want to put in a trade to get the much needed second score they have. So Cade Cunningham doesn't have to shoot 35 times. Honorable mention Austin Reeves as a sign and trade. Just had to throw him out there in case the Lakers decide, maybe we do want to keep LeBron. Anyway, that's it for today's six pack. So now you can go grab your own six pack of Michelob Ultra. Plus Michelob Ultra is giving you a chance to win exclusive prizes, including courtside tickets and more. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash courtside. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for.

1:24:53Bill Simmons:Michelob Ultra Courtside 25-26. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. Residence 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2025. Ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines and prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG. If I'm ever traveling for work, where I stay is so important. I actually really care about this because sometimes I even have to do a podcast wherever I'm staying. In general, I don't go on the road that much, but when I go on the road, I like to be in a nice hotel with a nice room.

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1:26:15Bill Simmons:millions of business owners already trust Spectrum Business. So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Services not available in all areas. Next one is Brooklyn. I didn't really know where to put Brooklyn. 14 % they're in the third spot. Top four, 52.1. They've only had one top three pick really in the last 20 years. Derek Favors, number three. Um, karma points for building the 2024 Celtics inadvertently. Karma points for really trying to make a legitimate run with cap space and KD and Kyrie. They trade everything for Harden and they get hosed. I'm going to give them demerits for, I just think they're incredibly poorly run.

1:27:05Bill Simmons:I don't understand just about anything they do. And, uh, so I, I kind of put them here. I'm willing to be talked to Adam, man. Sean Marks he just needs a 13th or 14th year and he'll nail it this could be the year he might have figured it out so I agree with you in that I do want to give credit for the fact that Brooklyn twice in the last 15 years has been like we are going we're going all in we want to win the title we're brazenly going after the title so I want to give them credit for that I want to give them non-credit for the fact that they had five first round picks last year, and I don't know who any of them are.

1:27:47I live, I want to, I, I want to give them.

1:27:49Bill Simmons:You're not a Nolan Traore guy? I want to give them non-credit for the fact that the first year that they had Kyrie, Katie, and Harden. Yeah. I got pretty good season tickets to the, to the Nets. And midway through the year, they were a good team. and midway through the year, my wife said to me, next year, do you think it'd be better if we just spent the money on 10 good Knicks games? And I was like, really? I mean, you could say five good Knicks games. Right, and it's not like she's a huge fan of anyone on the Knicks, anything like that. And she was like, it just feels so much more fun there. like here nobody's really into it they had katie kerry and harden they had no fans like they and so well you know when it even gets worse the liberty games are fucking awesome in the exact same arena same arena my daughter and i went to win the liberty the clinching game for the title yeah it's electric yeah so that does work against them it would though they do have to get a superstar to have any chance of getting any type of attention there.

1:29:08So yeah, a little bit. I mean, they've gone for it. I just don't think they're well-run. All right, so I'm going to keep them in this category. Yeah.

1:29:15Bill Simmons:We'd all be better off if they just moved to Seattle and we didn't have expansion. Next category is a salad bowl of karma points. You might disagree with this. I have Golden State here, 2.0%, 11 spot, top four, 9.4%. They did have Wiseman as the second pick six years ago and Kaminga number seven. those were their last two really good picks last 15 years this is just about this is where you're going to get mad yeah I don't want to see Steph just be on shit teams for the next three years of his career I totally agree with that let's get him one more good guy so I don't know what category is bigger than salad bowl there's two more categories oh no this is the second to last category Steph individually his karma deserves the biggest what works against him and brings it to this just second tier is the team no the team being so smug in that we've got one of the 12 greatest players of all time he's still awesome let's try to win while also preparing for a two-time life it was the same shit i'll never forgive never the Cavs in 2018 when Kyrie wanted out and they could have had Paul George and the the owner Dan Gilbert was like well no we need a post LeBron life and so we need a pick that turned into Colin Sexton and they got little Isaiah Thomas that trade they did with Boston that was your guy though LeBron what do you mean because he was going to leave after the year and And they're like, we'll do the trade if we know you're staying and he wouldn't come in.

1:30:55I understand. And guess what? Whether he was leaving or not, you know what you should try to do when you have Pete LeBron James win the title that year? Instead, they were like, no, we have to be okay afterwards.

1:31:06Bill Simmons:He could have waited one more year and then gone into Lakers in 2019. He could have done all those things. He's been like, I'll sign a one-year extension if you do this trade. Yeah, he could have done all those things or the Cavs could have just made the better. First of all, it would have been the better trade. Second of all, planning for a post of a future post your all time legendary players dumb. So I hated what the Warriors did with Kurt to Curry like this. I'm not maximizing those young players for when now guys. So he deserves extra karma. OK, the organization deserves less. So leave it where it is.

1:31:41Also, a little tiny douse of negative karma for Draymond having the audacity to be like, yeah, you know, Steve Kerr held me back. What? What? Are you? Now, that's Austin Rivers.

1:31:58Bill Simmons:I think he only did that to get talk show segments out of it. Well, he got it. He got, there was content all over the place. Ringer favored Austin Rivers and Draymond. They might be meeting in Temecula soon. they're going after it so go ahead next one Chicago top 4 for them is 20.3 % they're in the 9 spots so 4.5 to win it they've picked 4th in 2020 they had a stretch from 99 to 08 1, 4, 4, 2, 7 3, 2, 9, 1 they've been the cheapest big market team in any sport if you think the 3 biggest markets are New York Chicago and Los Angeles. They've been the cheapest of anybody other than the Sterling Clippers.

1:32:44Bill Simmons:It's been 28 years since Michael Jordan retired. Their fans deserve better, and all of those are reasons they should have karma points. Conversely, do the Reinstorfs deserve a top four pick? Where do we put this? This is way too high for Chicago. But can you blame the fans, though? So you would put them where Sacramento is, basically. Yeah. Alright, I'll move back. I don't blame the fans, but But listen, Bulls fans, they're also Bears fans. You just got Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. You got a hockey team. You got two baseball teams. Honestly, that's their attitude. They've just moved to the Cubs, and they've moved to the Bears.

1:33:20Bill Simmons:And the Bulls, they just assume, are going to go 42 and 40 every year, and that's the NBA team they have. Yeah, and so the Ryan's doors don't deserve it. All right, so we have Golden State, moved Memphis into this category. Utah. Thank you for that. Fourth spot, Utah, 11.5%, top four, 45.2. last 15 years. They picked fifth last year. Fifth and 14 took Dante Exum and Cantor in 2011. They have never moved up in the lottery ever. And they bastardized the sport to the point that they finally had to actually change the lottery rules and do this 3-2-1 thing. I think they got karma points for that. They're the catalyst.

1:33:57Why? Yeah.

1:33:58Bill Simmons:They're the catalyst for changing the lottery in a good way. It took them before the All-Star break to do it. this is a little bit of you love Danny Ainge and want good things for him Danny Ainge deserted us and took our best assistant alright so maybe I mean here is why the fans of the Jazz do deserve good lottery luck the fact that the team that quite literally for all of NBA teams past, present, and future, is going to have the hardest time signing free agents in perpetuity, has never moved up in the lottery, seems like a sick joke. Although Salt Lake's red hot right now. Oh, you know, I do believe it is.

1:34:52They have a hockey team. Might get a baseball team.

1:34:55Bill Simmons:It's really cool to go there. I believe, you know, there are. They have reality shows. Wyoming is sick, is super hot right now, too. You know what demographic it's not super hot around? NBA players? NBA free agents. 27-year-old NBA superstars. Not very often being like, hey, guess where I just got to spread? Salt Lake. And so they need some luck there. All right, so keep as is. Golden State, Memphis, Utah in this category. I have Atlanta via the New Orleans pick. So they had a good season. They did win the lottery two years ago, so they lose. points for that. Top four, 29.3 % chance to move up 6.8 for the seventh spot.

1:35:41Bill Simmons:And the case for them for karma points, they built a really fun team. They did a good job for the most part. They have fun nucleus. It would be fun if they got one of these guys. And I think this is around the right area for them. So when you first told me we were doing this, my gut was, I was going to say Atlanta should be number one. Oh, well, let me give you the other two teams then. Well, no, but I'm going to, but I know I think you have it right. I know because so my gut was, it was such a savvy trade with Joe Dumars in New Orleans just to get this pick. Them having the guts to finally move off Trey Young, the fact that they, you know, CJ had this moment, all that worked for him.

1:36:25And then what kept sticking in my head was, yeah but they took Zachary Reese-Sachet number one overall so they probably third is a good spot so we have two teams left two karma teams

1:36:38Bill Simmons:left two karma teams one is in the same category the Washington Wizards alright first spot Joe House 11.5 % to win no that's not right they're in the first spot 14 % chance to win yes 52.1 for top four they picked Sarr two years ago number two they got the six pick last year with Johnson they've had 12 top six picks in the last 35 years since they made the 1979 finals they have five playoff series wins in 47 years and they've never made the conference finals and their fans are in about as dark of a place as it gets and they're probably upset that they couldn't even win this so I have them second and Anthony Davis is talking as if he's never going to play a game for him.

1:37:27Bill Simmons:Yeah, he's on Redfin in every NBA city looking at houses. They have a pool? Is there an eight-bedroom place in Portland? Figuring out where he's going to be. They're also about to have the Trey Young experience, which I don't think is enjoyable. Can I tell you something about Trey Young? I think we've all blocked it out of our mind. I was just looking this up randomly the other day because I was looking at Giannis stuff. The Hawks won two games in the 2021 conference finals. Yeah. That series was four to two. Now, Giannis missed a couple of them, but if you go back and look at the box scores, they look like two eight seeds compared to now.

1:38:10It was two. Giannis got hurt in game four. Yeah. So it was two to... with Giannis out for the rest of the series. Atlanta, it was going to be, you know, Chris Paul was going to be a champion is what was going to happen. If Atlanta wins that series. Yeah, it was 2-2 in the conference finals. It's remarkable.

1:38:36Bill Simmons:I think that 2020 and 21 seasons, 50 years from now, people are going to be on basketball reference like, wait, what? What's going on here? Yeah, I mean, 20. I think people will probably remember 20 is probably the final title for the greatest player of all time. It's neither here nor there. Atlanta, what's working against Atlanta is... Or, I'm sorry, what's working against Washington, pardon me. The... The shamelessness, the embarrassment of being scarlet-lettered by Bam. I mean, they have just been... But their fans don't deserve... It's not on their fans. Alright, I'm fine with them being there.

1:39:17Would you put Atlanta over them? Yes.

1:39:20Bill Simmons:Okay. I would put Atlanta in the second spot. Okay. And I love who you have number one. Yeah. So this is the last category, a swimming pool of karma points, Indiana, 14%. They're in the two spot top four, 52.1, an amazing wrinkle where they only keep the pick. If it's top four, they could drop to five or six. Otherwise it goes to the Clippers a little similar to, I don't know if you watched Survivor, but Devin's flipping the coin to basically try to stay in the game. It's kind of what they did with that pick. They flip the coin, and if it comes up heads, they're away, and they get a top four pick, and they get Zubats, and they get Tyrese Halliburton coming back.

1:40:03Bill Simmons:They're probably going to be the number two favorite in the East. Well, yeah. And if there is ever an acceptable reason to throw a season away, it was them. It's like, hey, we made a finals the year before that. They made the conference finals the year before they made the finals. We made the finals and our best guy risked everything to play in game seven, took a chance, and the worst possible outcome happened and ruined our next season. Ruined our next season. And so we snap recalibrated. We're not, we didn't, tear it down. We just took a gap year. And we also, also didn't they, they had their pick only because of a trade.

1:40:53They made a trade during the finals to get their pick back. So they, they did that with like a little, maybe a little premonition of what was to come.

1:41:04Bill Simmons:That came across conspiracy bills desk last summer. Why did they make that trade during the finals was it like Halliburton protection like getting protection in blackjack or something it's it was it's crazy how it happened it was days before the guy gets hurt yeah um they're well run they have a plan and it it is it's not quite the 03 lottery where Jerry West is sitting there I either get LeBron James or nothing it's the all-time either or. Now we know LeBron would have been out of there in 07. Can I tell you something? Not only would LeBron not have been out of there, they would have a 30-story seven-star hotel with what that downtown would have been if LeBron was there.

1:42:00Bill Simmons:The Memphis montage. Indiana being like, all right, they're going to be watching the lottery just knowing if three teams move up, we're sorry. If they come up five or six, it's over. And then if you're... So the best thing they have going for them is the Clippers would benefit from this, which I don't know if the league would be doing backflips that the Clippers got the fifth pick in the draft. And then could if, let's say a ruling came down and they decide the Clippers did all this stuff, could they then just say you don't get the fifth pick that's going to be part of the penalty? I don't know.

1:42:40But so I think Indiana, Indiana, they don't have to get the number one pick, but they've got to stay in the top four. So I like them. I like them being number one on this. All right. So I'll recap.

1:42:55Bill Simmons:From no karma points to a swimming pool of karma points. OKC, Dallas, Charlotte, Miami, Milwaukee, Sacramento, Chicago, Brooklyn, Golden State, Memphis, Utah, Washington, Atlanta, Indiana having the most karma points. That's a good list. It's a good list. Congratulations, Indiana. Yeah, congratulations, Indiana. Good luck, Atlanta. Memphis, I hope this made Chris Vernon and everyone happy that there was somebody repping for Memphis. What does conspiracy Nick think would be the fishiest outcome? Last year, we hit the fishiest outcome when Cooper Flagg went to the Dallas Mavericks. I think it's Golden State getting a top four pick would be the one that would make me go, oh, yeah, if I was running the league, that's what I would have done.

1:43:45All right, so Golden State... Golden State certainly is the one that's best for the league. Yeah. There's no doubt about that.

1:43:53Bill Simmons:Like them just getting DeBansa? Who could play right away for them? What about this one? And I don't know, again, I don't know if they would do it, but maybe they would. what about Brooklyn getting a top four pick and using that for you as a trade for Giannis like that is well here's the thing with Brooklyn they don't have their pick next year because Houston can swap it oh yeah it's part of that weird deal they made so they actually have to be good next year so yeah Brooklyn would be another one I'm not sure they're anxious to help out Brooklyn no that's probably true Dallas could be the other one it's like hey you owe us for the rest of the Luca trade.

1:44:33Bill Simmons:We know, we know you promised us one lottery, but it was actually two, two lotteries to send Luca to Los Angeles. Just so you know, I just clicked SIM lottery on tank a thon and the result was Milwaukee moved up to one. So that goes to Atlanta. Wow. And the Clippers moved up to two and that goes to OKC. That would not be great. That's what just came up In the one that I just did, Milwaukee goes to Atlanta as one. The Clippers, which goes to OKC at two. Washington three. Utah four. Poor Indiana drops to five, and it goes to the Clippers. Oh. Gammon of emotions for the Clippers. Gammon of emotions.

1:45:20Bill Simmons:OKC moving into the top four of this lottery would enrage people. It would be a catastrophe. I was on the air when Cleveland won the 2014 lottery, and I kind of melted down for like a minute. Yeah, I remember. I remember. I was like, you gotta be kidding me. This is the third time in four years that they won the lottery? Real quick. Is it weird to you that it's on a Sunday? Yeah, I hate it. I hate it. It's supposed to be Tuesday night or Wednesday night, right? Well, they're going to have, so it's a 1230 game lottery after the, or 1230 Pacific, 330 Eastern game lottery. And then the next game.

1:46:02And I don't like that at all.

1:46:04Bill Simmons:I don't like it either. I liked when it was the middle of the week and we could get content out of it, but yeah. All right, Nick, I took enough of your time. This was a true pleasure. Thanks for doing the karma rankings. Thanks for talking basketball with me. It was great to see you as always. Oh, you know what you as well. I'll tell Kevin Wilds. How about this? I'll tell Kevin Wilds. You say hello. And you tell Joe house who I've never met, but in my head, we're friends. I say hello. All right, we'll do that. All right, great to see you. Thank you. Yeah, bye. All right, that's it for the podcast.

1:46:34Bill Simmons:Thanks to Nick Wright. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo as well. Don't forget about the new rewatchables we put up. There's something about Mary. Don't forget about La Gata. Finally ended. The conclusion, the last seventh episode of the series is up and you can rip through all of them now. I'm going to be back on Thursday with one more podcast. Can't wait. I want to see them on the wayside. I don't want to say I don't have feelings with them on the wayside. I'm a person I never thought. Must be 21 plus in president in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in president in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

1:47:23Bill Simmons:If you have a problem, call 1-800-GAMBL or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York for Louisiana. Call 877-770-7867. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss.

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