NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

11:04Bill Simmons:So are you over or under? I'm over now.

11:06Zach Lowe:Wow, just like that.

11:08Bill Simmons:No, he just had to be talked into.

11:09Zach Lowe:Because 63 is still over.

11:12Joe House:I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big. It was like over. What do I feel bad? If they win 61 games, I still feel good. 60 games are still awesome. I'm going over.

11:25Bill Simmons:Yeah, 63. One other thing with these guys. some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky. They have all the draft picks, which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago. They're still all right. They have some Philly stuff. They have some Utah stuff that's protected. They have some swap stuff with the Clippers in Houston. They have some Denver picks that I'm not too excited about because they have Jokic. They have a 20-28 swap with Dallas. That was way more exciting before Dallas with 1.8 % odds won the Cooper flag lottery. Let's not talk about that. But they have stuff they can just be like, here's four firsts.

12:02Bill Simmons:We want to upgrade this spot and do it. I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over-under. Is SGA the most untradable guy in the league for you right now? How many people would you put over him? We're doing trade value rankings because I had him three when I did my list in January. I had Jokic ahead of him and I had Wemby. SGA's going to be 20. He's 27 years old. He is MVP, finals MVP. He's 31, 6, and 5 the last three seasons. And I wrote down, he's like independent movie Kobe, basically. He's Kobe, but it's a lower budget with a director who did for scale and got a bunch of actors.

12:43Bill Simmons:And they made it for$2 million and took it right to Cannes.

12:46Zach Lowe:Yeah, he's not a blockbuster.

12:48Bill Simmons:Like, he even Shay did this GQ interview, like cover story, and had quotes in it. And it's like, whoa, Shay being interviewed. dude. Like, he's just like, we don't know anything about him. And I think he likes it that way.

13:01Joe House:No, I mean, look, I'm, it's tempting to say Shea, Wemby and Jokic are completely untradeable. And yet we are eight months removed from Luka Doncic getting traded like inexplicably to the Lakers. But I think the, I think it's just Wemby. Like if you're going to rank them all, I think Wemby has to be the number one most untradeable. Would you put him over Jokic?

13:17Bill Simmons:Wow. That's great. I think Wemby's so young. Jokic versus Shea is a really good argument now because Jokic is now in his 30s. right so you're getting basically three extra apex years from from shea although maybe with the way yokage moves he could just play until he's 55 it's possible his body looks like he's going to be able to withstand it i i still have joker and wendy over him wendy won joker too i think wendy's won now especially after the preseason game we watched last night it's like I think Winnipeg is now our number one. Okay, we're all over for OKC. Next one, ironically, the Denver Nuggets.

13:56Bill Simmons:Their over-under is 53.5. They are plus 470 for the conference, plus 750 for the title, 6-1 to be our one seed. And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Sarich and Russell Westbrook. Good joke on the internets this week about Russell Westbrook might change his name to Entetokumpo to see if he can get signed by a team. Mean, funny. It really checked all my boxes. It's mean to everybody. It's mean to everybody involved. Everybody's insulted. Multiple people get insulted with that joke. They added Cam Johnson, huge fan. Bruce Brown, who really peaked with those guys and then was adrift for a couple years.

14:37Now back, Jonas Valanciunas,

14:40Bill Simmons:who is a weird agent situation over the summer. Unclear if he wanted to put it with Denver or not, but he's there. and then Tim Hardaway Jr. plus Holmes is coming back. This is the deepest bench they've ever had. Zach, this is the best Nuggets team I think Jokic has ever had. Is that fair to say?

14:58Joe House:It's in play. It could be the best regular season team they've ever had for sure.

15:02Bill Simmons:What would be another one for you?

15:05Joe House:The year that won the title would be with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys who Jeff Green was still a viable player.

15:13Bill Simmons:Yeah, so they went seven deep that year?

15:16Joe House:Probably a little deeper than that. Probably a little deeper than that. Okay. Yeah, this is on par or better than that as a regular season team. We'll see how the young guys develop. I've always liked Strother, but it's never really happened. I like Peyton Watson. Can you make enough threes? Some of the bench young guys hit. Pickett is interesting. It's sort of like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good. But the big, bulky point guard guy.

15:42Bill Simmons:Interesting. like it's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across traffic? Interesting or interesting?

15:49Joe House:One of these young guys is going to pop a little bit at some point. How much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like, I'm longing for Jokic. I miss Jokic. I made a mistake or I didn't make a mistake. I got paid. But yeah, it's on the table. This is the deepest and best regular season Nuggets team.

16:06Bill Simmons:What I like about this team has they can bring in dudes that aren't as good as their starters, but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys, like when Valenshueness comes in, you can kind of run offense through him for five minutes. You had him in Washington. Bruce Brown comes in. He can kind of pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes. Hardaway can come in. He can kind of pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple of minutes. The issue I had within the last couple of years is the guys that were bringing in the bench. It's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson, Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him.

16:41Bill Simmons:And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback? Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets?

16:46Zach Lowe:I absolutely adore them. I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment, after what we all saw the last couple of years, them being quality wise, as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league. And then they just get to that threshold moment and they just didn't have the depth they didn't have the depth against minnesota that's right yes this is the thing so i absolutely this we've been clamoring for this for how long now years right you know who else was clamoring for it mike effing malone who gets to watch it on television this season yeah because him and calvin booth couldn't get

17:27Joe House:on the same page right zach yeah so they cleared out the the cloud of dysfunction those hanging over the organization. David Adelman is the new coach. Everyone seems to like him. He's doing creative stuff in the preseason. They're playing zone. They're playing the centers together. Some people are calling him Dave. Is that on the table?

17:43Bill Simmons:Oh, see, he's like, he's David Adelman, but now they're so comfortable with him. There's a couple of days. He's Dave to me.

17:48Joe House:He's doing the opposite of Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone. He's going long to short. It's a culture shift. Dave Adelman. It's all across the board for Denver.

17:56Bill Simmons:Maybe like one or two Davies.

17:58Joe House:I don't know, Davey. You can't go Davey. Davey, quick question, Davey. zone defense you're in in the third quarter. Were you on a side in the cloud of dysfunction or were you just... I was on the side of like, I can't believe you two... I can't believe it got this bad. The team is good. They won a title. How does it get this bad? Why did it get this bad? Valanchunas is interesting because he's become a journeyman now. He's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto obviously. And I just think like when Jokic would go out of games, they would have just no identity.

18:36Joe House:It was like if Jamal Murray doesn't make crazy step back 20 footers, we're just not going to score. You were holding on for your life for five minutes. JV is at least like, I can dump it to him in the post and kill time and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points.

18:52Zach Lowe:I was blown away by the short stint that he enjoyed in Washington. I loved him. Well, I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple games in Washington. Tickets were available. And you could hear him talking. And the leadership role that he played with those kids, that dude just knows how to play effing basketball. He gets to the right spot. He knows where everybody's supposed to be. He tells them, go, go, move, whatever. And he is a big boy. That's a big boy right there.

19:18Bill Simmons:Well, also, like, what fun situation has he been in? Like, he was on that weird New Orleans team. He was on Washington. He was on Sacramento. Like, this is, like, the perfect team for him. Just come in. We'll run everything through you for six minutes a half. And then if Jokic gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basketball player.

19:36Joe House:Can I just state some dings?

19:39Bill Simmons:I'm excited for Skeptic Zach on the 53 and a half. No, the 53 and a half is a little high for Zach.

19:45Joe House:The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go. Looks good in the preseason. Cam Johnson's missed a lot of games over the last couple of years. Yeah, I wouldn't say he's Cal Ripken Jr. I think their rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without MPJ. That was one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them. Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting. He's in better condition and mentality. He always starts slow, right? That's one of the reasons the Nuggets tend to not blow away their win total over-unders. So those are the dings, I think. Do these bench veterans whose names sound good?

20:21Joe House:Like Bruce Brown, he did stuff for Denver. Tim Hardaway Jr. Do they actually help the team or is their name recognition allowing their value? And just like win totals from the last, you know, ex-Denver seasons, 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50. They just don't have a track record as like a blow away regular season team. Playoffs, different story. Absolutely terrifying with the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense. Regular season, they're not like blowing you away.

20:52Bill Simmons:the 57 would be the doppelganger i think for this season for me the last year the murray thing was so weird those first six weeks house i have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before i have and when you share season tickets with people you do a draft where you send your list and like here's my here's my 20 and then you do like somebody gets first pick and you get it if i was doing this with my season tickets Denver would be my first pick. Oh, wow. I would want to see them over every other team in the league. Would they be your first pick?

21:25Zach Lowe:No, because I need to see Wemby. I haven't seen Wemby yet in person. I need to see Wemby.

21:29Bill Simmons:So that would have been my second pick.

21:30Zach Lowe:Yeah.

21:30Bill Simmons:What would be your first pick? Fortunately for you, you can go to MSGC any game you want.

21:36Joe House:Or the Barclays Center, you're not even considering that.

21:40Bill Simmons:I just thought they had WNBA games. They have an NBA team? Wow.

21:45Joe House:What's it called? Poor Jordy. It has the worst team name in the NBA, the Nets. I thought that was where the Liberty played. In any case. And they have pizza. I think Wemby is now ascended to like, I got to see this guy again and again. But to your point, Jokic, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live. The Raptors have a murder's row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto on New Year's Eve. And I've told my wife and my family, A, we're staying through New Year's Eve, so I'm going to that game. and B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor Raptors.

22:25Joe House:So it's still a hot ticket.

22:27Bill Simmons:Can I make the Joker case? Go ahead. Because you're doing this draft in September. Jokic is playing probably 97 % certainly when he's in your town. I got a story. Knock on wood. Wendy, I have no idea. We're going to knock on wood. Joker plays. Joker plays. Joker's out there, and you know you're going to see him. And especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up. Unlike, say, a Joel Embiid in Denver. Like, if you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver. Embiid goes 30th because he hasn't played in Denver in a decade. I would have Joker first when he's second.

23:01Joe House:Can I tell you a heartbreaker for me? So I got laid off from ESPN last year. What? You? When did that happen? Zach Lowe? I used to work there. Organized my wife. Big mistake on my wife's part. It was like when I got home from LA, she was like, you know what, Zach? carte blanche take whatever trips you want to clear your head and she said it in front of a dad friend of mine yeah so the planning began like oh carte blanche seven dads from connecticut descend on the deep south for a week starting in new orleans built around nuggets pelicans yeah because i'm like i'm telling you guys this is like this is a religious experience to watch this guy we had great seats like this is a religious experience to watch this guy in person here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night?

23:47Joe House:Dario Saric, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown, Hunter Tyson got in the game. Hunter Tyson. Jokic, Jokic's wife gave birth. Oh, see, it has to be like

24:01Bill Simmons:a crazy event like that.

24:02Joe House:Heartbreaker. You didn't do anything wrong. Heartbreaker. Found out on the flight down. News broke. I didn't know how to break it to them. It's like, now you guys are like, Peyton Watson's kind of funny. Like, Mike, block a shot. But, you know, luckily they played the Lakers the next night and LeBron hit a game-winning jumper.

24:17Bill Simmons:That was a good game. Yeah. First, legacy shift. New segment on the over-unders pod. Got to talk about legacies. Is there a star player with a bigger legacy shift brewing on a pod on the stove than Jokic this year? Because if they win the title and he wins MVP again, I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever. I think that has to be the outcome because at that point, his 2020s, I'm including, let's say he first teamed this year MVP, just hypothetical. His 2020s, just this decade, four first team, two second, four MVPs, two second place finishes and probably should have won one of those too.

25:02Bill Simmons:And then he would be basically a triple double for the entire decade, plus 29, 13, and eight in 80 playoff games, whatever it's going to end up being. Like, I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that. He has to be.

25:17Joe House:I think the more interesting question is like, if they never get a second title, is he still, like his statistics are so, and individual honors are so crazy. And like no one who has watched the Nuggets for the last, the years they haven't won the title can make a case that it's Jokic's fault. Like at all, he shows up in every, becomes a Jerry West situation.

25:39Bill Simmons:Like I had West in the top 10 when I did my book, he only won one title i didn't hold that against them because they were in there but if he gets a

25:45Joe House:second one the names he's next to like next to immediately not next to like oh three more years next to immediately are like the holy pantheon of nba players he has to be with bird and magic at

25:56Bill Simmons:that point yeah he's next to them and then we can start talking about top four yeah we're all in

26:01Zach Lowe:agreement and uh you know it's why the fist pumps the huzzahs as this offseason occurred and we saw this team finally giving the assets, creating the multiplicity in terms of they're built to withstand a little bit of time off for Gordon. They're built to withstand a little time off for Murray. They're built to, even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season. The answer is hell yes. I do wonder. I do want to have this legacy shift conversation. I have a guy in mind. Do we save it for when we get to that team? If you want to Hit your legacy shift button.

26:40Bill Simmons:Just pound it and tell us.

26:42Zach Lowe:Okay, well, I'm sitting on mine for now.

26:45Bill Simmons:I had one other thing on Jokic because I thought of this when I was doing the research. And it's not 100 % fair because it's a decades thing. So somebody could peak starting in the middle of a decade and then to like the first two years of the next decade. So you can't say whatever. The 60s were owned by Russell. The 70s were owned by Kareem. Like those were indisputable. 80s were Bird of Magic together. 90s were Jordan. 2000s were Duncan and Kobe together. The 2010s were LeBron and Curry together. The 20s are just joker right now. I don't think we're, we have 26, 27, 28, 29. So we have four, unless, where do you stand on what is decade in for the 20s?

27:31Bill Simmons:Does it have to be the 30 season or the 29 season? That's where it gets super confusing for me.

27:35Joe House:I have not put a lot of thought until when I end a decade.

27:39Bill Simmons:But who would you even have in the running for the 2020s other than Joker? If we're like, what were the 2020s? Who won that decade? It's Joker right now, convincingly.

27:48Joe House:Kawhi, just for being in the news all the time.

27:50Bill Simmons:But I mean, in the 2020s, they haven't. No, I'm just kidding. Shay, maybe. I just got your aspiration joke five seconds later. By the way, we're in the aspiration dome. Giannis. Yeah, but they just gave us a free speech. Giannis is the only other one. Giannis, who hasn't made the play. I understand. I understand. I've got five years to play with. We do.

28:09Zach Lowe:Yeah. 25, 26, 27, 28.

28:11Bill Simmons:Well, so the guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shea. Sure. A couple more titles with the resume. He's the only one. I think that's in the.

28:20Joe House:You're just dismissing Jason Tatum. You've already got him coming back in, you know, February. Celtics, you know.

28:26Bill Simmons:I mean, that's maybe another candidate, Jason Tatum. I'm over for the Nuggets at 53 and a half house.

28:34Zach Lowe:I am super over. This is a lock. Put it in my book right now. House, lock, Denver, over. For all the reasons.

28:43Bill Simmons:I'm not going to announce my locks until the end of the pod. But you can do whatever you want. You can hit the legacy button whenever you want.

28:51Joe House:Nuggets over is a lock.

28:52Bill Simmons:Are you over, Zach?

28:53Joe House:This is one of the ones I struggle with the most. There's like three that I went back and forth on. I'm going under. on 53 and a half, uh, based on their history as sort of a regular season, good, but not great team. And, uh, I can't go over on everyone in the West, right? Like I've got to have some unders. True. So I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31, 52 and 30 prepared to be very wrong. I'm just going to, I just got to go under on someone. I'm going under on them. Playoff, different story. I'm not, I don't want any part of these dudes in a playoff series. I think they would be the number two seed in the West.

29:29Joe House:and I'll go from there. But I'm going under.

29:31Bill Simmons:I would like to go on the record and say, because the season's about to start, that I think it's OKC, Denver, and then we drop.

29:39Joe House:That's the finals.

29:40Bill Simmons:I think those are the two best teams. Western Conference final is OKC.

29:43Joe House:I mean, look, who knows what changes, right?

29:44Bill Simmons:Injuries and everything. Yeah, of course, of course. And if you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub, maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint and the fact that they won 64 last year. but I don't feel as certain.

29:59Joe House:Honestly, I mentioned this on my pod yesterday. Like one of the fascinating, like I rarely start thinking about seedings until we're 60 games into the season. Everyone in the West has to be rooting for some scenario where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma City in the second round where you don't have to go through both of them because they're so clearly to me in a tier hovering above everybody else.

30:22Bill Simmons:Did you see that GM survey? They said, which I thought was really interesting, but they had the home court advantage question in Denver and OKC were basically like had 95 % of the votes or 90 % of the votes or something I was like yeah that's fair but that's a good point

30:36Zach Lowe:because that's another incentive for Denver to get to be motivated to win I'm still staying under I gotta be under on somebody can't hold that against you

30:46Bill Simmons:emails from Denver message board things from Denver tweet replies from Denver fuck you Zach you went under you motherfucker

30:54Joe House:I was so early on Jokic that I have a lifetime of buying. Yeah, that's fair. With the Denver fans.

31:00Zach Lowe:Nuggets capital.

31:01Bill Simmons:Minnesota's over, 49 and a half, one of the toughest ones. They were 49 and 33 last year. They are 10-1 to win the division and the conference, 17-1 for the title. And they have the seventh best finals odds. Zach, why don't the sportsbooks respect this team? What is Minnesota missing? What did they do to antagonize?

31:24Joe House:okay we're gonna go this way all right uh 49 wins last year you said like not that's not a lot of wins there that's under their current number uh lost a critical bench player and alexander walker have to replace him mostly with young guys when does the mike conley thing just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start divin chenzo and there's a trickle down effect there that is that would be the that would be the case for the line being this low counterhouse

31:51Zach Lowe:Well, the crazy thing is they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year. They were an under 500 team through the first 20, 25 games or so.

32:00Bill Simmons:I would say unhappy. I mean, there were multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on with Minnesota.

32:05Joe House:Is this Randall fit like a disaster? What's happening? DeFincenzo was miserable.

32:10Zach Lowe:I mean, they made a pretty traumatic trade right before the season. It was. It was traumatic, and it took a little bit for the chemistry experiment to work. But then we saw it work a little bit. And I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference finals, the second consecutive Western Conference finals. Yeah, that's who this team is. And there's still another level for Anthony Edwards. There's still another level for that dude. So I am in the same place as Zach is sort of puzzled by the number being flat. And I'm not sure what informs that. I think it's anticipating the market being out on Minnesota.

32:48Zach Lowe:because this number hasn't moved. It's been a hard 49 and a half.

32:52Bill Simmons:I mean, them having worse finals odds than the Lakers is pure lunacy. And I just don't understand it. They were top five net last year. They have a top 10 player. They still have a top five defense. And one thing that I used last year that helped me a little bit, I leaned on it more this year, is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season. And Minnesota was 20 and 10 the last 30 games. There's plus 7.3 with basically the team they have. And the only piece that's an X factor is Alexander Walker, who's getting those minutes other than Conley. But they have young guys that they can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and maybe get lucky.

33:32Bill Simmons:Plus they'll have a full DiVincenzo year. And Conley's like Horford. Like I'm just not ruling him out anymore until we see that he's just completely washed up. I'm over. I just think, I think you can make a case this is like the fourth or fifth best team in the league. So at that point, you have to be 50 wins and over. So I am an over yet again. Three overs in a row for me.

33:55Joe House:Dillingham, Shannon. I like Jalen Clark. Like, I think they can eat up the Alexander Walker minutes well enough with Ant ascending. Randall feeling more comfortable. Gobert just as a great floor for your defense. Okay, the other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year, 82 Alexander Walker, 80 Nas, 79 Edwards, 72 Gobert, 69 Randall, though it felt like he missed more time. They were very healthy last year. But expected wins last year, 54. They shat the bed in close games. Yep.

34:27Bill Simmons:For two months, remember? They were really bad.

34:30Joe House:I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over. All right. Aggressively over.

34:36Bill Simmons:See, I am too. I think this is a 50-win team. Yeah.

34:38Zach Lowe:And I understand why Zach wouldn't want to do Denver because it would put him in the position that you and I are in BS, which is another over. Over, over, over. We show up at the Over Under podcast 2025 and we're banging West overs. But you know what?

34:53Joe House:And Denver's number is four numbers higher than Minnesota.

34:55Bill Simmons:But if we think these are three of the five best teams in the league, it makes more sense. It's just coincidentally they're on the same division. We didn't mention Julius Randle living happily in his post-marijuana life. No more marijuana for him. he felt like it made him distant it slowed him down his brain's clear he's feeling great

35:17Joe House:do you think that message reverberated around the NBA community and there are going to be imitators there was a great Durant quote

35:25Bill Simmons:where Durant was like yeah I respect it but me personally I really like the plant he called it the plant I did not see that

35:34Zach Lowe:I do want to hear from Zach this will factor in we'll get to Toronto eventually what's the Toronto situation with the plant that's going to factor in crucially for me are you asking me because you think I plan no no I just think you're generally aware as a person that spends

35:50Joe House:time in in Canada is it a marijuana city I'm unaware but I Canada generally is a Toronto is

35:59Zach Lowe:a fun place there's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about house don't get us canceled come on there's just a player I'm worried about that's all house are you over under over all

36:09Bill Simmons:All right, three overs. Well, we spent a lot of time in those three teams, so we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in the division. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the FIFA World Cup 26. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26. For you, the stakes are just this high. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26, is giving you a chance to win$1 million worth of tickets and prizes. Michelob Ultra, from the pitch to the pour, superiors worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6.

36:48Bill Simmons:Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26 superior access. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. Residents 21 plus. Begins on December 1st, 2025. Ends on July 31st, 2026. Multiple entry periods. Visit www.mickelobaltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. This episode is brought to you by Netflix. The T-Mobile Home Run Derby is right around the corner. It might be one of the best showcases of pure power in all of sports. Baseball's biggest sluggers, along with some legendary announcers. Pujols, Rizzo, Bonds, Sabathia, Al Duncan. Yeah. Hunter Pence, Matt Faskersian, a whole bunch of people.

37:32Bill Simmons:And it's the one night where you don't swing to make contact. you swing to make history. I'm interested to see what Bond says about this, actually. Anyway, it is all live from Citizens Bank Park in Philly. Watch the T-Mobile Home Run Derby live on Netflix Monday, July 13th at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Did you know you can use TikTok to connect even more with the sports you love? It's not just highlights, it's everything around the game, including the sports community. Find breakdowns of classic basketball plays, deep dives on baseball stats, even videos on how athletes train and recover.

38:08Bill Simmons:There are people teaching strategy, sports, history, even ways to improve your jump shot. It's kind of like the biggest locker room ever and everyone's sharing what they know on TikTok. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA season is coming. FanDuel is the place to let you play your game. Everything, everything they have to get you ready for this season. We'll be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts, even better.

38:42Bill Simmons:You can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout. Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion in October, parlay your playoff dark horses. We're going to be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out during the over or under pods. Fandle is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We like to put three teams together with win totals, 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins, put them together. And we're on a win streak. We lost last year because of the stupid sons, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced on Thursday's pod.

39:13Bill Simmons:Visit fanduel.com slash BS today, and you can start planning your futures bets now. Fanduel, play your game. Must be 21 plus president select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine. We have a whole year of podcasts for him. We're going to go to the Portland Trailblazers, the next team in whatever this division is called, Northwest, the State Farm Northwest division.

39:46Joe House:Presented by Kia.

39:47Bill Simmons:Their over-under is 34.5, and they're plus 410 to make the playoffs. Plus 200 for the play in-house if you want to get frisky. They added Drew Holiday. They traded Anthony Simons for him. They lost DeAndre Ayton. They didn't lose him. Basically, they brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left the suitcase in baggage. They evicted him. Yeah. They got evicted. And they added Yang Hansen, who already feels like that was one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade. People love him. He's selling jerseys, hats, everything.

40:21Zach Lowe:The kids love him. And he might be good. My kid insisted on watching every summer league game with Yang Hansen. The kids love Yang Hansen. Who knew that? They can see his enthusiasm out there. Yeah. And it's infectious. He is really fun.

40:33Bill Simmons:I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but I do enjoy him. The one thing with this over-under, and I was leaning more toward over, but Scoot tore his hamstring and is out. They're like one to two months. I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while, even when you come back. And Zach, that shaded me toward the under here.

40:58Joe House:Okay. 36 wins last year, so they went over this number. Expected wins, 33. Fattened up at the end of the season. 23 and 18 in their last 41, which you could read either way. They found something or they took advantage of the morass. You know what they found?

41:14Bill Simmons:House's old friend, Danny Avdia. Avdia. He was fire. He was unbelievable. He was one of the best 20 players in the league during the stretch.

41:21Joe House:And I think that was totally real. I think that dude is a legit, very good player. Shaden maybe goes up a level. Grant only played 47 games last year. 46 too many. We both had the same joke. I'm sure you're hoping this is the year Time Lord plays 80 games. He's still on the Blazers. Not betting on that one. I am going under on this, which surprised me because I felt like a kind of jolt of optimism about how the Blazers finished the season. I'm like super intrigued by their young guys. I just don't like their depth. I think their offense is going to be putrid. Like there's just no shooting. I don't know if the centers are really ready for this level of offensive responsibility and Klingon and Young.

42:08Joe House:And the West is just really, really good. I think Portland's going to be solid. Their defense is going to be really good. Like Kamara, Abdiah, Klingon, like a rock solid defensive team. I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number. So I'm going slight under.

42:21Zach Lowe:This is literally the script. They can't score. And I don't want the Portland soccer bombs to get mad at me. I love this Portland team I root for them because Denny I root for Denny it broke my heart when they shipped him out of Washington I understood why I get the timeline that Washington is on he's too good for the Washington timeline and I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in but I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball and so I am doing the underplay for the Portland

42:52Bill Simmons:I was surprised I was over in my head all offseason Me too. And I think here's the title that they're going to win because I think we all think they're going under and I think they will. They might have a chance to be 2026's hipster NBA team.

43:06Zach Lowe:Oh, that's a good idea.

43:08Bill Simmons:Defense. There's going to be some really good defense. Say Camera.

43:11Zach Lowe:We have to say Camera's name multiple times. Dimani Kamara. I said it. Kamara. I like when you called him Camera, though.

43:18Bill Simmons:I'm going to keep up. Because you had the first malapropism of the pod. You had the first mispronunciation.

43:22Zach Lowe:It's going to be one of a dozen.

43:24Bill Simmons:Kamara who I think was really the thinking man's like that really really really nerdy epicenter of basketball on the internet where people are like look at these fucking numbers when this guy's plays look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he I think I voted for him second team defensive all defense I didn't have a ballot

43:48Joe House:but I would have first team

43:50Bill Simmons:I still have all my Scoot stock feeling great about it. And then Yang Hanson. I think this will be a really fun league pass team. But you made the key point, House. No Scoot for two months. We're not even positive if he's going to be an efficient offensive player. But I thought Simons is intriguing. The Celtics are like... Oh boy. Zach knew I was going to do this. The Celtics are like, whoa, Simon's like this guy's like a really gifted offensive player. Like you can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game. And he did that a lot for the Blazers last year. He did. And they just pull that out.

44:30Bill Simmons:And guess what? I love Drew Holiday, but that's not Drew Holiday.

44:33Joe House:And I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers. They're already down one guard and scoot. It should be noted. Like I think their incentives are all like we're trying to win this year. We're diehard trying to get in the play in. Yeah. Chase of whatever, like as win as much as we can get. Their heart's in the right place. However, they do owe a lottery protected pick to the Bulls. So, like, if things are not going great 55 games into the season, you always have to factor those in. You always have to factor that. I don't think they care. I don't think it's going to guide their thinking.

45:03Joe House:It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them.

45:07Bill Simmons:I didn't love the Drew Holiday season last year. And I say that as somebody who loves Drew Holiday. And I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the Knicks because I thought a year ago, he's somebody who could have guarded all of the Knicks. And in that Knicks playoff series, I was really surprised that he wasn't at that same level. I mentioned this because they're paying Drew Holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not going to play this year. It combines$77 million. And wait, that then goes to$82 million guaranteed the year later. Oh, wait,$88 million in year three of that.

45:46Bill Simmons:For those three guys and how they will be like 37 at that point. It's really bad cap management. I'm just going to say it. Like when we have the second apron and stuff, that's just a lot of money to pay for those guys. I don't agree with it.

45:59Joe House:Well, Grant was the desperation trying to keep Dame. You know, we promised you this deal. It was the Miles Turner.

46:07Bill Simmons:I really want to stay married. Here's a ring. The Drew, I did. Here's a new ring. I gave you a new carrot. Please don't divorce me.

46:14Joe House:The Drew trade was a little ahead of their skis for me. That was like a very win now. We need an adult in the room. We need leadership, which is like all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a$37 million player option three seasons from now. That's just...

46:31Bill Simmons:It was a miracle trade for the Celtics.

46:33Zach Lowe:Yeah.

46:33Bill Simmons:I get... Listen, I get why they did it. It's good to have adults around. It really is. That's fundamentally like they just felt you can just be too young and it's nice to have a couple people. I was talking to our friend Callie Curry because Seth went to Golden State and it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte? I don't think she'd mind me saying this. And she's like, well, they have people his age on Golden State, like Curry, Al Horford, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler. These are older players. There's something to have a couple old guys around. So I get it why Portland's like, Like, hey, we need a couple more experienced guys.

47:16Bill Simmons:Drew is like a beloved locker room guy. I get it.

47:19Zach Lowe:I mean, that's like asking. I wouldn't have done it, but I get it. What's the difference between Maui and Galveston? Like, what? What kind of question is that? Are we three unders? Three unders.

47:28Bill Simmons:Unders, yeah. Utah Jazz, over under 19 and a half. They were 17 and 65 last year. They lost John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Colin Sexton. Didn't really get anything back for any of those guys. They have Kyle Anderson. They have my comeback player of the year pick, Yusuf Nurkic. That's not true. George Niang. And they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton. And most importantly, Zach, we'll keep mentioning this with the picks, they owe a top eight first protected to OKC, which means to be safe, you want to be in the bottom five, to feel really good about not having to hand that pick over. I don't know where to start with this team.

48:18Bill Simmons:Let's start here. How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife? When he's home at night, what does he say? This is year four for Will Hardy being like, hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again.

48:31Joe House:I think you say there are only 30 of these. They keep extending my contract into perpetuity. Do you like the home we live in? school system seems pretty good like we're living we're like the five-star hotels on vacation all summer where we go great yeah i think it's a good situation i think he's like look like look around

48:52Zach Lowe:the league at the coaches if he became available he would i mean you know instantly by any of the top teams in the league if a top team needed to make make a move like none of this uh is going to

49:04Joe House:like the smirch is san antonio well interesting interesting name this is why utah i mean they've literally i've lost count of how many contract extensions will hardy has got like i assume his deal runs for like 17 more years and they know but that's what you do like if you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild you you give him these kind of years so it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good oh we're hiring the veteran qualified for this team and that's been the case for for all four years plus it worked out incredible for brett brown that's what i'm saying you don't want that you treat that was a joke i know but that's what

49:37Bill Simmons:i'm saying you this is what the extensions this is you just made the case that brett brown's friends were making in the 2010s no this is great someday it's going to be awesome and he's never

49:46Joe House:coached again they never gave him like extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions like the jazz are doing with why do you think they did the gm job that's true he took marco faults over

49:57Bill Simmons:Jason Tatum. That wasn't him. Wasn't him? Who was it? Here's my next what's in it for you at this point. What's in it for Laurie Markkinen House at this point? Why does he want to be on this team? $175 million. Great contract.

50:12Zach Lowe:Yeah, a lot of dollars.

50:13Bill Simmons:Well, they gave him the extension. You'll be on the team this year and then we'll talk about it after.

50:17Zach Lowe:Nice comfortable situation.

50:19Joe House:Not being asked to do too much. That's the only... That's the over-argument is that the number is extremely low. And they have an all-star, borderline all-star level player who played 47 games last year and a good starting center who played 58. And if they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number? Because the bigger issue beyond that is I think all these other veterans are going to go to contenders. I think a guy like George Nyang could help a contender. I think they're all gone. The biggest issue is who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage productive NBA possessions?

50:56Joe House:And I had the answer is like at this point, and it's not it's not a bad thing because they're also young. I don't trust anybody. And so like Lowry Markkinen is not like a first option ball handler type of star. I just don't know that combined with the possibility of them trading Markkinen. I'm going I'm going under, which is shocking, considering 19 and a half is like an embarrassingly low number.

51:19Zach Lowe:It's a super low number. The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a badass motherfucker. And it might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win games. They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is they come out and win some games early on in the season and look really good. Hold on. I'm on with my realtor.

51:41Bill Simmons:I told him we'd be calling. Because apparently Ace Bailey Island, there's condos. There's no island.

51:47Joe House:How is there an island?

51:48Bill Simmons:It's a giant island. It's like a peninsula.

51:50Joe House:He was a top five pick of the draft. Doesn't matter.

51:53Bill Simmons:It's a huge island. He was a top three that slid. There's beachfront property available on Ace Bailey Island. I'm in. Are you in? I assume we're all in. Yeah, we're all in. Obviously. We're all in. It's overcrowded. It's overcrowded. The bars are packed. No, he's telling me it's not overcrowded. He said that all the stuff in the offseason made people nervous, right?

52:13Joe House:Yeah, okay. All right, we're in. He's going to be very exciting. I'm high on him. He's going to have crazy highlights. I just don't think it's going to be efficient against adult NBA teams.

52:23Bill Simmons:That's all. Counter. he looked like a more filled out 19-year-old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far.

52:32Joe House:I would take it a little easy. I just said, look, you can't see my boner right now.

52:37Zach Lowe:Zach Lowe sending you some settle down juice right now. He's pushing it right in your direction.

52:41Bill Simmons:I assume you're going way over. No, I'm going under. I am going under as well,

52:46Zach Lowe:but I just wanted to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over. Because, I mean, that enthusiasm...

52:52Bill Simmons:I actually thought he was going to be a bust after some of the advanced stats with him as a college player combined with how erratic some of the non-basketball stuff seemed and then him going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there. And I was like, oh, man. But I understand why Danny did it because it's like, you have to go highest ceiling. This guy's the highest ceiling. You got to do it. But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him, how comfortable he seems physically in these games already when he's like a baby. He's a professional basketball player.

53:25Bill Simmons:He has more thickness and size than I was expecting. And then the shot, I don't know if he would be fun to play with. He might just be like his own solo act. But I think it's going to be really easy for him to score. And maybe right away, which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing. Like trying to make the trade. Because it's like you can put Ace in. Like, let's get him the ball. Let's get him shots.

53:49Joe House:And I just want to say for the Utah fans, me saying who's dribbling the ball. I watched your team. I saw what Isaiah Collier did. Like, solid. Keontae George has flashes. I'm just saying, like, this is the NBA. It's hard to run offense, and their efficiency numbers were bad. If you have property on Ace Bailey Island, which is, by the way, ridiculous. It's like a continent. Can I get, like, a little condo on Filipowski Fjord? Like, you would.

54:12Bill Simmons:I like that guy.

54:13Joe House:He's pretty good.

54:14Bill Simmons:I like him, too. I like Sensaba. I like some of the guys in this team. They're going to be terrible this year. Yeah. I'm going to watch them, by the way.

54:21Joe House:So our only disagreement in this entire division is Denver. I'm under and you're over. That's it. Otherwise, we're unanimous. We're all under on this? Yes, we're all under.

54:31Bill Simmons:Can I give you three marketing teams really quick? Sure.

54:37Joe House:Detroit's been the sexy one.

54:40Bill Simmons:Could this be our last gasp gold state move? They already tried to get them.

54:45Joe House:I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler in the door salary-wise.

54:49Bill Simmons:Kaminga, they can't patch the salaries together or no?

54:52Joe House:They have picks to trade. I mean, Kaminga's got a base year compensation thing. Kaminga, Moody, Buddy Heald, all their picks.

54:58Zach Lowe:Is Kaminga on the right timeline for Utah?

55:01Bill Simmons:That I don't know. Would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with Kaminga? I'm not sure. Should Houston have gone after marketing over KD? That's a fascinating question. That's a good one. I was thinking about that the other day. Would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks, and the number 10 for Markkinen?

55:25Joe House:I don't think so. But probably another first.

55:27Bill Simmons:You'd have to throw in more stuff, right? Maybe a Brooklyn pick?

55:30Joe House:Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff. And the contract is right now, after he played 47 games last year, not entirely his fault. The Jazz were faking injuries and all that stuff. The contract is kind of an eye of the beholder contract. You can find executives around those who are like, I don't know if I want to pay Larry Markkinen $54 million in four years.

55:52Bill Simmons:I sent House the depth charts, the starters bench for each team. Utah's bench, Ace Bailey, Williams, Sensabaugh, Clayton, Nurkic, and Phil Powski. Are they going to play him and Markin together?

56:06Joe House:Let's go. What are we waiting for? Good point.

56:09Bill Simmons:All right, we're moving to the Southwest Division, which is led by the Houston Rockets, over under 52 and a half, minus 220 to win the division, which surprised me. 17-1 for the title, 10-1 for the conference. They were 52-30 last year. They added Kevin Durant. You might have heard of him. Clint Capella, for some reason. Finney Smith. They lost Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They lost Landale, who I like. They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards.

56:37Zach Lowe:Let's go Whitmore.

56:38Bill Simmons:And sadly, they lost Fred VanVleet. And I think that's the question with this over-under. is I'm old school. I still believe point guards kind of matter. And this seems like a high number and a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball for them against pressure and crunch time situations. Who's going to be making sure people get the ball properly. I talked about this with Goldsberry last week. There's some stagnation, toilet bowl offense potential with this team. 52 seemed high, Zach. What'd you think?

57:15Joe House:The Van Vliet injury is a killer. Amon Thompson, Reed Shepard, they'll get their turns. We'll see how that goes. I think game to game, their floor is really high because their defense is going to be so good. Their rebounding is going to be so good, and they're going to play super hard every single night. I'm worried about Eason missing games because he misses games every year. Van Vliet's already out. Finney Smith has had health issues in the offseason. him. Durant generally checks in at like 60 games.

57:48Bill Simmons:Durant was in the 2007 draft.

57:50Joe House:Yeah.

57:51Bill Simmons:Were you married yet, House?

57:52Zach Lowe:No. How many wives ago was that? That's not funny. I've only been married to one wife, but I took my time. That's why I wasn't married in 2007. I thought it was kind of funny.

58:04Joe House:52 and a half is a big number. I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vliet's injury. Me too. And I am going under on the Rockets.

58:12Zach Lowe:Oh, I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets. I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets. That's the case.

58:17Joe House:I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 48 and 34, but I'm going under. That's a big number. Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the FVV spot.

58:26Zach Lowe:They need a body. That's the wild card. They can make any kind of trade they want.

58:30Bill Simmons:Make your case for your team in this spot.

58:33Zach Lowe:Well, I do think that CJ McCollum would be kind of an incredible replacement for FVV. I think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar kind of thing. I just shout out my guy, Ben Standing, who threw that at me. He's like, why wouldn't Houston grab CJ? I was like, you know what? That's a goddamn good point. The other thing, the reason to be concerned about this number is because their coach is just a monster. And you would worry looking at this team coming in with the FEV injury and say, the chemistry piece of this is going to be funky. Are they going to be like Minnesota, a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out?

59:09Zach Lowe:Not with Emei. I think they're going to come in prepared.

59:13Joe House:Are you sending out Van Vliet in this McCollum trade? Yeah. Just cold-hearted? Yeah. Like, thanks for your service.

59:17Bill Simmons:Cold-hearted? It's the NBA. Enjoy your rehab. We have houses just ice cold when it comes to trades.

59:22Zach Lowe:Ask him about Isaiah Thomas.

59:24Bill Simmons:Yeah.

59:24Zach Lowe:It's fair. I mean, this is the NBA.

59:27Bill Simmons:It's a 1-10 scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip. That was just fucking brutal. I didn't feel good about that

59:35Zach Lowe:Houston wants to win the title they acquired Kevin Durant how many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective

59:42Bill Simmons:So, the case for the over 52, if you're going to make it, Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been... He's making a leap. But I'm saying like a leap leap.

59:56Joe House:Like reliable 18 to 22 points score.

59:59Bill Simmons:We'd have to be like, holy shit, this guy's turned into, I think, a pretty amazing two-way player. Yeah. But the other thing is defense is good with the over-unders. I was like, if you're reliable defense night tonight over 82 games... it's usually a decent indicator with the overs.

1:00:14Joe House:And I think Shengun goes up a notch this year too.

1:00:18Bill Simmons:Eurobasket? You wouldn't do it.

1:00:20Joe House:What, I wouldn't watch it? You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay-per-views. You were just highlight Eurobasket.

1:00:25Bill Simmons:I don't need another streaming service, but I think Shengun still has untapped stuff. House didn't watch it. He just went on NBA Reddit a couple times and watched highlights. Good enough. That's it. That was all you had. Good enough. Uh-oh.

1:00:39Joe House:Legacy makeover. Oh, my. Uh-oh. I'll be worried. We're doing it, aren't we? We're doing it. We're just going to dive right in and do the thing.

1:00:48Bill Simmons:If they make the finals this year without Van Vliet and Durant's the centerpiece of this, super happy, this is like the last thing that could shift anything for him, I think. Because I think people have decided one way or another on him. If you're for the camp, I think you and I are in a house where it's like we actually think this guy's better than people realize. This career was better. In 17 and 18 on Golden State, he actually was fucking unbelievable. That 14 MVP season, all the scoring stuff. I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time. The LeBron fans will debate that because they'll be like, well, LeBron has the most points.

1:01:26Bill Simmons:I'm just saying like, just from getting two points, I think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position. And yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the Phoenix thing was, how unhappy the Brooklyn thing became. 2016 OKC up 3-1 in that series, blowing it. 2014, not being able to get over the hump. There's a lot of ways you can ding him. But if he takes Houston to the finals as their best guy, that's like an unbelievable new wrinkle to this.

1:01:59Joe House:Look, we could do three hours. We could. We probably will at some point. Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves the Wizards.

1:02:12Bill Simmons:I would say he's had the most sliding doors of any NBA player this century, even if you start with the Seattle thing. Just him moving and just having that nucleus. He's probably still there now in the Seattle Supersonics.

1:02:24Joe House:And I think he and his people were caught off guard by, and I don't think they should have been, but just the perception that the Warriors championships count as half championships. like he's just never going to get the credit that a two-time finals mvp should for those two seasons because they the deck was stacked yeah and he's been searching for brooklyn phoenix and like you know it just hasn't worked and he's part of the reason it hasn't worked like he's been awesome but he's like the mood of those teams has not been very happy in that house no i i agree and

1:03:01Bill Simmons:he turned down your team like seven different times he didn't even he didn't even take the

1:03:04Zach Lowe:calls. Didn't take the calls. Zach knows. I didn't have to say it. Yeah. I mean, you can understand why. Franchise in Washington finally has a good front office.

1:03:14Bill Simmons:Have you decided on KD or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head?

1:03:18Zach Lowe:I feel like there's two more years. It's this year and next and let's see what happens.

1:03:23Bill Simmons:I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year. Just in my head with the Rockets. Just give him all of the Jalen Green dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some sort of Jalen Green play. That'll be fun.

1:03:41Joe House:Oops, sorry. Are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green? Is that what's happening right now? No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Durant. Are you going under?

1:03:48Bill Simmons:What's your call? I'm a hard under.

1:03:54Bill Simmons:No, I'm just under. I think there's somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me. But I think them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Vliet seems insane to me. In this conference, if they're in the East, more of an argument. Zach, I asked Goldsberry this last week. West teams you'd want to be the next five years. OKC and San Antonio are 1-2 in some order, correct? Yeah, I mean, without thinking about it, it's hard to beat. Those two are the top two. House, you agree? OKC, San Antonio. You'd want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else. Okay. Does Houston have a case for the third spot?

1:04:34Bill Simmons:This is a great question. I gave you Houston, Denver, Dallas, Minnesota.

1:04:40Zach Lowe:Minnesota is the one that I think is the closest for me. I think Anthony Edwards is going to be that motherfucker.

1:04:47Joe House:Blink test, as you like to say, I think it has to be Houston. Because of the picks. The picks and Amon Thompson. Just give me all the Amon Thompson stock. And the trade flexibility. Yeah.

1:04:56Bill Simmons:Yeah. I think we all agree. All right. San Antonio. 43 and a half is the over under there was some action on this this was 44 and a half last week it dropped plus 450 for the division hold that thought 35 to 1 for the conference 65 to 1 for the title minus 166 for the playoffs they won 34 games last year even though Wemby did not play after the all-star break they added Luke Cornett and Kelly Olenek they added Dylan Harper the second pick in the draft they added Carter Bryant and they lost CP3 Mamu who I know you love Branham they have new coach Mitch Johnson Fox is out to start the season so the case here would be are these guys 10 wins better than last season what do you think House are they 10 wins better

1:05:48Zach Lowe:just right out of the box no I don't think so it's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty and i don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team like the way they're building wemby looks unbelievable so is that a wemby injury certainty it's just across the board you're just nervous for him just perennially yes i'm going to be until we get 70 games from him give me a nice nice easy reliable 70 and then you know then we can build from there after what happened. So, and the Fox thing is a bummer also. 10 wins is just a bridge too far for me. And I think the West, this is a function of how competitive the West is.

1:06:33Zach Lowe:I only have like one team dropping out of the top 10, one team moving into the top 10. The Spurs ain't it. So it's an under for me.

1:06:40Joe House:Zach Lowe? Over. Over. 43 and a half over. I don't even like, I just think Wemanyama is incredible and he's going to be, I mean, what's the, at worst, the sixth or seventh best player in the NBA this year. Top 10 defense all by himself. The Fox thing makes me nervous. The Fox injury was my only pause, the only reason I even thought about this. You can say, well, do they have enough shooting around one, but I'm a fair question. How does Fox, Harper, Castle, three ball handlers who are shaky three-point shooters, how does that all fit? Sohan is another non-shooter. I think the Cornette thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team.

1:07:17Joe House:Olenek can help their team. But to me, it comes down to, I just think this dude is so goddamn good and their supporting cast is good enough that I can get to 44, 45 wins. I'm over.

1:07:29Bill Simmons:Best big men, year three. Duncan won the title in year two. Kareem also won the title in year two. Hakim lost the finals in year two. So these are all things that happened the first three years of someone's career. Dave Cowan's year three. MVP 68 wins Eastern Conference Finals Shaq year three 57 wins made the finals David Robinson year three was his famous fantasy season house 23 and 12 with 6.8 stocks blocks and steals combined Moses 49 wins Eastern Conference Finals the only two Yao had 51 wins the only two year three guys out of the great centers Ewing and Dwight where nothing happened we had him on a TV last night as we watched football.

1:08:18Bill Simmons:And I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie, that he moves better with all the shit that he's doing with, he's a tiny bit heavier. He's a tiny bit. It doesn't look like a, a baby deer running around in the woods. That's falling over half the time. Like he doesn't, he's just moving fluidly and there's some stuff he's added. Like he has this crazy two hand shack dunk now. where he thrusts his chest and groin into the guy's face, basically. Thrust and groins. Yeah.

1:08:50Joe House:There's been a lot of innuendos, you know. No, no, no. He's French. What do you expect?

1:08:54Bill Simmons:Yeah. The three-point shot looks more fluid. I'm with you. I think he might be actually awesome. Like, he's 12 to 1 the MVP. I think it's like a real life. He's actually awesome. He is awesome. He's already awesome. He's fucking awesome. I'm saying like MVP conversation, 12 to 1 awesome.

1:09:11Joe House:Yeah, he's in the MVP conversation. I said this last week on my pod. It's like people keep saying like, well, if things go right, he could get in the fringe. No, he's going to be in the MVP conversation.

1:09:19Bill Simmons:He's one of the best six players in the league. So to me, it's an automatic over. But we didn't mention one thing. You skipped over it because you mentioned Cornette and Olenek. And I think that's going to be really important that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game, whatever. I was thinking of a nickname for them, House. Cornette and Olenek. I can offer you White Castles, Cracker Barrels, or the Mayonnaise Men. I like the Mayonnaise Men. Or just the Mayo Men. You're so sad that Cornette's not on the Celtics. I love Cornette. Are you over it?

1:09:56Bill Simmons:Well, not only – I mean, my dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also like a great locker room, like really beloved personality guy.

1:10:03Joe House:He would just make gestures on the court after random events. Really, just a great teammate. Even the teammates were like, I don't know what that signifies.

1:10:10Bill Simmons:But that's another thing with the Spurs. I think the chemistry is going to be awesome. I agree. But we didn't mention one thing, and I think it's really important. And I don't think it's been mentioned enough. And I think people just assumed he wasn't going to be impactful this year, myself included. But watching some of the preseason. This is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times, plus reading the stuff about the team and the quotes from people. I think Harper is going to be good right away. I think he's going to be actually impactful. And when you watch him and he's, you know, he's a kid, he was a freshman in college last year.

1:10:44Bill Simmons:There's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately. He really knows where to go. He's got, he's patient already. He's big. He's not like this, you know, 19 year old guard coming in. He was like, oh man, when he grows into his body, like he has the fucking body already. He's lefty. And I think there's something really special there potentially with him. And granted, I've only watched him a little bit, but to me, that is the X factor. I'm already counting in Wemby. It's the Harper piece.

1:11:12Zach Lowe:That's fine. And I'll just, I'm content with waiting to see it. I want to say out loud, I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year. I don't need people saying, hey, you played 70. Well, I want to see it post this kind of injury.

1:11:29Bill Simmons:He had a major medical issue.

1:11:30Zach Lowe:He's gigantic. That's what this is about. And I'll reserve judgment on Dylan Harper. I also, I think there's a castle.

1:11:39Bill Simmons:Everybody forgot about me and I've worked really hard on my game and I'm really good too.

1:11:44Zach Lowe:I don't think we forgot about him. He won rookie of the year. It's just like not that. It's not. It wasn't overwhelming.

1:11:50Bill Simmons:When you talk about this team, you talk about Wemby, you talk about Dylan Harper, you talk about all the bench ads. And nobody's like, oh, they also have Castle, who was the best rookie last year.

1:11:57Joe House:I think this is like a great landing spot for Dylan Harper. Everyone is fixated on like Fox and how does he fit timetables. like he can if when fox is back he you can play dylan harper 15 minutes a game you don't have to force feed him anything you don't have to over overdo it you can you can stagger the minutes so that fox is out he's in and wendy's in at the same time because you're going to stagger and like make his life a little i think it's a great spot for him and i just want to say did you guys see the highlight of carter bryant chase down block attempt where he's like it's in the flow of the game and he jumps and his hand is above the square.

1:12:33Joe House:I saw that. Like if this guy can give them anything on offense, he is such a freak and such an elite defender already. Like I'm tempering my excitement.

1:12:44Bill Simmons:Well, that's over.

1:12:45Zach Lowe:That's fine. I'm going to lose. You guys are going to win this one.

1:12:49Bill Simmons:I'm not just a hard over. I'm a fully erect over.

1:12:52Zach Lowe:I want you to know the market moved like they were 44 and a half and people thought that was too rich. So that's It's settled at 43 and a half. And I'm just, you know, I'm going to just temper my enthusiasm.

1:13:04Bill Simmons:There's a couple. There's one Fando bet I wanted to mention. They're 3-1 to win 50 games. And I think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams, this is the team that has the ceiling for me. Because, like you just mentioned Carter Bryant. They have multiple athletes at these wing spots. I always think about it like if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like, oh, where are we going this week on our road trip? And San Antonio is one of the teams. You're like, fuck. This is a fuck.

1:13:36Joe House:And they got stuff to trade. They got anything they need to trade.

1:13:39Bill Simmons:They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house. They have all their own firsts. They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter. They have Atlanta's unprotected next year. They got some Boston-Dallas stuff. They have a swap with Sacramento in 31.

1:13:54Joe House:Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden ship.

1:13:57Bill Simmons:And they have some contract stuff to, you know, like they, they can put like Barnes with Kelvin Johnson. If you want for sale, like we'll talk about it. Like they could, they could pretty quickly add up to like a 40 to 45. Like this could be a marketing team. This could be the list. They're on my marketing list. That's a good one. This could be an out of nowhere. Jalen Brown team. I mean, you can't,

1:14:20Joe House:you can't even pencil in a better fit than marketing. When man, Yama, it's just, if you have marketing, in Wembe and Yama Fox, you are now loaded with like$350 million plus salaries.

1:14:30Bill Simmons:Harper was the one that flipped it for me, though. You just, you know. Like, sometimes you know with this shit. That guy belongs on a basketball court with good players. I think there's something with him and Wembe that they, I mean, they didn't expect, when they traded for Fox, they didn't know they were getting the second pick. Right? I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick. I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them. Alright, next team. Wow, if you thought our boners weren't in full swing The Dallas Mavericks Over 40 and a half They are plus 850 for the division They are plus 108 for the playoffs Which might be my single favorite bet on the board Not to tip my hand They're 39-43 last year They lost Spencer Dinwiddie And they added D 'Angelo Russell They don't have Kyrie for probably two-thirds of the season They added Cooper Flag Who has a chance, Zach to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis.

1:15:29Bill Simmons:And I think that's in play. And I think it's going to happen. Okay. Over or under?

1:15:36Joe House:Just flat out you're asking me? Where do you want to start? This was the one that I struggled with the most. I mentioned to you after I left last night before the Commanders blew that game. Sorry. Come on. I thought we were new pod friends here. That I was going to go revisit. just make sure Adam locked in. This was the team that I was struggling the most with. It's a 40 and a half. It's like right, obviously right in the middle. Flag is going to be awesome. They're a weird team like that trend's super big, you know.

1:16:06Bill Simmons:I mean, they're

1:16:07Joe House:just openly not starting a guard. Yeah, last night they're like, what if, yeah, what would it look like if we just don't even start D 'Angelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another

1:16:15Bill Simmons:What did they do? Flag, Washington, Gafford, Davis?

1:16:18Joe House:It was a gigantic lineup. Yeah, everybody was like 6 '7 it up. And Klay is still here. You know, it's a strange team. I am going under on 48 and a half.

1:16:30Bill Simmons:I'm stunned. I'm stunned. You know what? You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island. Not everything can be an island. An island is designed to be something with a limited

1:16:43Joe House:population and a small territory. It's fair. Here's my case for this. These are Anthony Davis's games played this is exactly the right 62 this from 2020 on 62 36 40 56 76 51 42 if it's 55 games or 50 games they're going under like they just with Kyrie missing two-thirds of the season nothing about flag love flag love their centers love the pj washington deal love some of their depth heaps shout out naji marshall like max christie blah blah if they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD, who I just read the game logs. 41 wins in the West is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me.

1:17:30Bill Simmons:Wow. Boy, when you're talking about your concerns about Anthony Davis' durability, that's just right in the house wheelhouse. I think he was the first person ever to express concerns in America.

1:17:42Joe House:Look, fully healthy, and I don't know if you can count on Kyrie. They're more a next-year team than a this-year team because of Kyrie. Kyrie changes their team, obviously. fully healthy they're a scary motherfucking team in the playoffs i'm just talking about getting through 82 games and winning more than half your games it's it's a it's if i have to get plus there's a sneaky like if this season is not going great and we do have injuries this is the one of the only years we control our first round pick in the next half decade so i'm going i'm just

1:18:13Zach Lowe:enough is pulling me to under well we know that they'll they'll gladly tank down the stretch i I mean, we have recent memory to look at for that exercise. That's how they got Derek Lively. Man, this one is indeed the most difficult. Really, probably across the whole NBA. Because of the Davis thing. Because of the, yeah, I mean, Anthony and every other.

1:18:35Bill Simmons:If I told you AD was playing 65 games, you would go over, you wouldn't even think about it.

1:18:39Joe House:No, not even think twice. He has played 65 games once since 2017-18.

1:18:47Zach Lowe:so what are you doing house over because 40 and a half this team with the size and the wings and the versatility you're asking for a for a 500 team to to um get to the over and i think cooper flag with 45 anthony davis games is enough for the over i also think here's the thing that that i that I really regret. Karma, the basketball gods should be on the side of an under, should be this team sucking ass this upcoming season as the, because I mean, but then they're in the lottery again with another chance. And they get, and with that chance, they get the 14 pick. That's, that's the karma that the basketball gods should reward.

1:19:34Zach Lowe:Great trade.

1:19:35Bill Simmons:They traded Anthony, Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg.

1:19:40Zach Lowe:Fuck me.

1:19:41Bill Simmons:I don't know. Maybe Nico knew what he was doing. You see the vision. He saw the vision. You see it. He had the vision.

1:19:46Zach Lowe:This total dropping from 41.5 to 48.5 put it right into my kisser, and it's a 41-win team, so I'll take the over.

1:19:56Bill Simmons:I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like, fuck, we're playing that team. I think Dallas is another example. This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard. Flag tries as hard as any rookie we've come in the league. I love Flag so much.

1:20:12Joe House:It hurts me to go under for that reason.

1:20:14Bill Simmons:I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of, like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks. They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple weeks because they actually have big men depth. It's like, all right, fine. I guess we'll just play Gafford and Lively with Cooper Flag at power forward. I love Lively. We'll be okay.

1:20:34Joe House:I think Lively is being slept on as a potential leap guy. I just, the strangeness plus the injury risk plus the West just being loaded. I'm going like slight, slight under.

1:20:44Zach Lowe:It's very fair case. Who's going to shoot threes on this team and knock them down? Klay. Klay. Klay. D 'Lo, don't forget about first three months

1:20:55Bill Simmons:of the season, D 'Lo. This is what he does. I'm okay with forgetting about him. You going over? I'm going hard over. Yeah, he loves the over. I think this team's going to be good. I already bet on this. is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar or would you pick someone else granted he's won a title

1:21:11Zach Lowe:just in basketball

1:21:12Bill Simmons:or in other sports in basketball

1:21:14Zach Lowe:nobody's more frustrating than Joel Embiid oh good good counter

1:21:18Joe House:nobody's oh you know what that just okay yeah I was gonna I was gonna nominate Harden but he's won multiple he's won AMVP rather fair and he's made it to a conference it's Joel Embiid you know

1:21:30Bill Simmons:we talked about Dylan Harper we talked Yeah, Ben Simmons is up there too. Gilbert Arenas is pretty frustrating.

1:21:38Zach Lowe:He made an all-NBA team. No, Gilbert Arenas just got hurt. Gilbert Arenas seemed like he was as good as Kobe

1:21:42Bill Simmons:for like a year and a half. No, maybe for three months. Flag and Harper. I just wanted to say this. This draft is night and day from last year. Where last year, some of the guys, like Reed Shepard was the third pick and just was like a G League player. We don't know if he's good or not. This year's draft... Flag has a chance to be like a transformative star. I think Harper is really special. Edgecombe is going to be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram. Ace Bailey, we are fascinated by. House's dude, Trey Johnson.

1:22:18Zach Lowe:Yeah, he's going to be good. God damn, we got the sixth fucking pick. He's going to be an excellent scorer.

1:22:23Bill Simmons:He's going to be great. But then all these other wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have. I don't know. I think this draft's awesome.

1:22:29Joe House:Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons' 2028 Olympian, Con Caniple? Just left him. Is he above this discussion?

1:22:37Bill Simmons:I'm trying. I talked to my lawyers, and they said, only talk about Con during the Charlotte part because it's getting weird. So I'm just trying to obey that. He's another one, though. He's going to play 35 minutes a game. I think the kid in Toronto is going to be sick. This really has a chance to be an all-time, we'll look back six years from now and be like, oh, my God. And we've had a couple of those drafts over the years, but I think this one would be a really good one. Memphis, 39 and a half. Dropped. Was 40 and a half. Went to 39 and a half. They've had some injuries. They traded Desmond Bain.

1:23:12Bill Simmons:They lost Cole Anthony. They lost Luke Kennard. They lost Huff. I know you're a Huff guy. I like Huff. Zach's already running out of steam. We got like 20 teams left. I'm going great.

1:23:25Joe House:I'm not enthusiastic about Jay Huff mentions.

1:23:28Bill Simmons:Ty Jerome, they added him. Yeah. KCP. Yep. Landau. Cedric Howard, Berno's guy. They're plus 154 for the playoffs. Plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bet of the year. And they have some injuries coming out of the gate. And John Morant's already hurt. Should be okay at some point. First couple weeks. And yeah.

1:23:57Joe House:not just some injuries like it's not great when all your centers are hurt except for Jock Lando Edie's out for a while

1:24:05Bill Simmons:no he should be back in December

1:24:06Joe House:Brandon Clark had like another thing another surgery Triple J's out for a bit yeah it's not great the number is like this is on the surface a disrespectful number to a team that has won like 48 to 50 whatever games in the last few years and they just seem to win they just seem to punch above their weight in the regular season until of course they fell apart last year could not beat any good teams down the stretch plummeted down the standings etc etc i think this is a really good number by vegas hats off to vegas because like 39 and a half like oh that's like they can't even they can be under 500 and go over this number i think that's appropriate given their injury situation this was a very tough one this was another one of my very

1:24:48Zach Lowe:toughest toughest picks has totally agree with with zach i'm going to play over because this team goes so goddamn hard at home. They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd. They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually. I think, say his name properly. Tomas Ayasalo? Tuomos Isolo. See that? Tuomas. It's tricky. Isolo. Isolo. I think Coach Isolo. See, they lost a defensive identity. That was part of what contributed to them sucking ass down the stretch. They couldn't stop anybody. Their games, their overs in the last like 45 games money in the bank. I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year.

1:25:30Zach Lowe:I do think that, you know, if they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever, when Triple J and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give him a microphone. When Triple J and John Morant play together, they win basketball games. And so what's our over-under for number of games that those two guys play? That sets the... That's a big question. That sets the total number. So we're asking for them to win half their games. I think they're going to win half their games.

1:26:02Joe House:What would that number be? Over-under on how many games both Morant and Jaron Jackson Jr. play? 55 and a half? I mean, I would even... 105? No, but I'm saying together. They both play in the same game.

1:26:14Zach Lowe:There's 82 games. And how many of those 82 do those guys play? You think it's in the 40s? See, I think it's worth, I think, 60-ish is in play. So I think this is why I'm taking the slight over here.

1:26:25Bill Simmons:But you guys can't. You made the whole Anthony Davis case. And then now these two are going to be.

1:26:32Joe House:I just said the over-runner at 55 and a half. I thought it was low. You're going lower than me. Okay.

1:26:35Bill Simmons:I just don't trust the health of those guys.

1:26:37Joe House:We're doing over-unders within the over-unders.

1:26:40Bill Simmons:It's an over-under pod. the edy thing i thought was really bad yeah because i feel like that's a half the year and look bain was really good last year i mean he's a top 40 to 50 player in the league wherever you have them on your list and they traded him for a bunch of you know a bunch of future stuff

1:26:59Joe House:i don't know what happened in orlando last year where like literally no one could shoot including the guy that they got to shoot yeah kcp is like a solid fifth starter like i feel good about his fit on the team. I like Scottie Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome off the bench. That's like a good stabilizing bench backcourt. I'm going over with House here. I think the number just got too low. I'm going over.

1:27:20Bill Simmons:Okay. I went, I'm only going under because I felt like San Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis you can't do all three overs. And I already did my overs on San Antonio and Dallas. I went under on Dallas. I don't trust I don't trust the health stuff. I thought the last 25-30 games of last year were so bad maybe more of an indication of who they are and well they fired the coach i get it there's also some uh like if this becomes the year from hell 25 games into the season

1:27:53Joe House:what do you what do you do about that if you're the grizzlies and they gave there's some year for there's some year from hell potential with the starting off with this many i mean i could argue

1:28:02Bill Simmons:you already have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had it was two years ago Yeah. That's true. I didn't, the Jaron Jackson extension was pricey. I know they had to do it. He's sick.

1:28:14Zach Lowe:He's sick. He's a sick ball player when he plays. I love him.

1:28:17Bill Simmons:Can you give me seven rebounds a game?

1:28:19Zach Lowe:That's not his game.

1:28:20Bill Simmons:Okay. Well, who's going to rebound for this team this year?

1:28:24Zach Lowe:Whatever those big guys.

1:28:26Bill Simmons:My boy, John Conchar. Yeah, I couldn't get there. Santi. I look forward to them starting out this season well, and then Verna sending me long, angry texts about it.

1:28:36Joe House:They do. I did. I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games. It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over. I was like, they should be able to survive this being like seven and eight after this amount of time.

1:28:50Bill Simmons:We're going to take a break and then we're going to talk about the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint, the New Orleans Pelicans. Oh my God. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents, managing your money works the same way. You've ever thought, am I getting the most out of my financial plan? You're ready for Mariner. With Mariner, you get an advisor backed by a full team of specialists. So everything's working together toward your goals. Take the next step in your financial journey with Mariner. Investment advisory services offered through Mariner LLC and SEC registered investment advisor.

1:29:25Bill Simmons:For more information, visit Mariner.com. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. on the court, the pitch, the track, even the pool. Professional athletes show extraordinary physical flexibility. For us normal people, we've got PayPal's flexible monthly payment plans. Pay nothing at checkout, then enjoy a flexible monthly payment plan that works for you with no sign-up or late fees. And it's available millions of stores. Pay monthly with PayPal. Subject to approval pay monthly consumer loans made by WebBank. Available through PayPal Inc. NMLS 910457. Learn more at paypal.com slash pay monthly.

1:30:03Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by Holiday Inn by IHG. If I'm ever traveling for work, where I stay is so important. I actually really care about this because sometimes I even have to do a podcast wherever I'm staying. In general, I don't go on the road that much, but when I go on the road, I like to be in a nice hotel with a nice room. I'm spoiled. If you sound like me, check out Holiday Inn. It has a whole new energy, especially for business travelers. You'll see it everywhere from refresh rooms to re-imagined social spaces and dining done right with new drinks and dishes. And for business, there are flexible spaces that work for the way you work.

1:30:43Bill Simmons:It's a new day and a new stay. Book now at HolidayInn.com. As you can tell from this over-unders pod, I love betting NBA futures. One of my favorite things. Gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just kind of monitor their progress over the six-month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote. But the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is kind of a fun one. season leaders. You can bet on stuff like will Wemby have a quadruple double this year?

1:31:21Bill Simmons:You can bet on that on Fandle. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast. And then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday, 10-14 on Fandle. Be ready. New Orleans Pelicans. Over 30 and a half. They had the first round pick. It's just gone. They lost it in a crypto scandal. Where did it go? They lost it. They invested in Aspiration and lost their first round pick.

1:32:03Zach Lowe:What's the bushy head guy who's in jail? Sam Friedman?

1:32:06Bill Simmons:Yeah. He took it. He took it. They invested in a movie studio. They went bankrupt. It's just gone. They were trying to buy trees. They wanted some trees. No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play off their success, which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year. There's two teams that they're not going to tank. Why would we tank? We have nothing to tank for. Let's play hard. Let's try to win. They added Jordan Poole, house's guy, who was actually like sneaky good last year. Kavon Looney, veteran. Sadiq Bae's back. They drafted Derek Queen, who's already hurt, and Jeremiah Fierce, who won't play until about 2030.

1:32:48Bill Simmons:They lost McCollum, Olenek, and Bruce Brown.

1:32:51Joe House:Wow, that was a very pointed shot at Fierce. He's 18. He's playing now. He's going to play now. Okay. We'll see.

1:33:03Bill Simmons:The question, Zach, is could they be this year's 2025 Hawks? This year is 2025. Last year's Hawks? This year's Hawks? Last year's Hawks. last year's 24-25 Hawks.

1:33:14Joe House:What happened with them? Why are they interesting?

1:33:16Bill Simmons:They didn't have their first-round pick, and they just gave a shit and tried. And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, we're still going to try. We're not going to be arresting anybody. We're still going to be going for it. And the addendum to that, did Skinny Zion suck you in at all?

1:33:31Joe House:No. No. I mean, it's better than the alternative, but I'm not sitting here like, oh, I saw some photos pencil in 70 Zion games. Like, I'm going to pencil in if I'm an optimist I'm going to pencil in 56 Zion games like that's like I'm not hoping for anything better than that we should have done a games played draft save it where you have a podcast maybe we'll do that for Philly no we could

1:33:56Bill Simmons:we could do that later

1:33:57Joe House:I can't wait for Philly you guys

1:33:59Zach Lowe:you guys do it

1:34:00Joe House:well Herb Jones played 20 last year Murray played 31 he's going to miss at least a big chunk of the season and Murphy got hurt right before the season Ingram Ingram played 18 yeah it was no skinny Zion did not suck me into like oh everything's great now they figured everything out but your question is the interesting one I talked to people around the league you would think the trade and all the flack they took for it would incentivize them to win win win win win at all costs and Willie Green may be coaching for his job win win win at all costs we have to save ourselves from embarrassment as a front office say of our job as a coaching staff, but also the counter is the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that queen in particular is good, that queen and fears is good.

1:34:51Joe House:Do you have, do they, do they left, do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches? Like, you've got to give these guys major rotation roles because we got to show they're good because if they, the more they play rookies tend to not help you win games. So I think those, it's a fascinating Wow. What a conundrum house.

1:35:05Zach Lowe:This is another situation where the front office and the coaching staff may be not on the same page.

1:35:11Joe House:Well, maybe the front offices knew they didn't hire the coaching staff.

1:35:14Zach Lowe:Great point. Great point.

1:35:15Bill Simmons:I mean, Willie making it through last year was kind of a miracle. I certainly didn't agree with it. They won 49 games the year before that. I get it.

1:35:22Joe House:So Queens hurt to start the year. Yes. If they're like a frisky eight and nine when he comes back or whatever the timetable is for his return, Does he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Ween and we made this massive swing for him? Or does Willie Green have the leeway to be like, hey, man, sorry, we're kind of rolling. We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there, you know? House, let me give you the rotation.

1:35:49Bill Simmons:Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, Poole. Looney's going to start over Missy.

1:35:54Joe House:Okay. Which I like. Adult in the room. Set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads. I like it.

1:35:59Bill Simmons:Looney, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, and Poole. That's a professional basketball team. Sure is. And the guys on the bench. Missy, Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like. I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years. Queen when he comes back. Murray when he comes back. Fierce. I mean, they have... Did you say Bay?

1:36:20Joe House:I like Bay on the bench. And Bay if he's...

1:36:22Bill Simmons:I haven't seen him yet, is he?

1:36:23Joe House:He's playing okay in the preseason.

1:36:25Bill Simmons:That's a lot of basketball players' house.

1:36:27Zach Lowe:I agree. I'll just come out. I'm an over on this team. I think the way the incentives run and, you know, Willie Green, they won 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that. And that's with all of the Zion, you know, how many games is he playing situation. They have a lot of dudes and they have the capacity to be a pretty intense defensive team. And you're only asking them to win 31 games.

1:36:57Bill Simmons:31 and 51. Over. And you're like this. Right. I have a confession. I have two confessions for you guys. I kind of like the Jordan Poole trade the more I looked at it. For Washington? For both teams. Okay.

1:37:13Joe House:I love it for Washington. I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans.

1:37:17Bill Simmons:I'm going to try to explain it. Are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years? Okay. Continue. Poole has this year and then next year. Yeah. Poole, I think, for the team they have is probably a better fit than expiring CJ McCollum, who they're not going to trade for future pieces anyway because they already lost their first-round pick. And then Poole's been expiring a year from now. I thought Poole was really competent last year. And House and I talked about him a bunch of times where it was like, this guy's like a good offensive player.

1:37:49Zach Lowe:He can help a team down the stretch. He can help a team that needs a boost scoring-wise. You just really have to tell that dude, here's the role. Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything. That there's no big three.

1:38:03Bill Simmons:He's not on t-shirts with Zion. Don't roll and say

1:38:06Zach Lowe:oh we're rolling the ball out Jordan. Go ahead and do your thing. No.

1:38:10Joe House:They also got Bay in that trade who we all liked for a while and then he got hurt. I was hoping he was going to be able to play for Washington.

1:38:18Bill Simmons:I have another confession for you guys. There's a couple Pelicans starting fives I really like. How about center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and Poole. I want to see that for five minutes. The opposing offense is also dying to see that for five minutes. I just want to see it. I didn't say I was going to win with it. I just thought it would be entertaining. And then Missy, Murphy, Jones, Hawkins and point forward Zion. No guards. When they do the point forward Zion thing, that'll be fun.

1:38:43Joe House:That's what makes me a little nervous is we know Zion's health is always going to be an issue. They really need more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team. Because you just said, I don't want Jordan Poole in charge of the whole machine for too long. Nope. McCollum gone. Murray gone for at least part of the season. Alvarado's a good backup. Fears is a rookie. Like, they're going to need not only Zion to play, but to run more of the offense than he's ever run before. Sounds great.

1:39:10Bill Simmons:I like when he does that.

1:39:11Joe House:Well, does his body like when he does that? Like, everything takes a toll, right?

1:39:15Bill Simmons:He's taking things seriously now. You're going playoffs. I am going over 30. I think they win between 31 and 35 games. Me too. Me too. So you win the bet.

1:39:25Joe House:I win the bet. We are all over. The number is too low. Too much talent for this to be 30 and a half.

1:39:30Bill Simmons:One Pelicans point quickly. Remember when they had this war chest of picks? And we were like, wow, the Pelicans, all these picks. No war chest. The war chest is empty. They have their own first in 20 and 32. They have that 26 first is going to Atlanta. and then they have a Bucks or New Orleans first. The worst goes to Atlanta. They get to keep the best one in 27.

1:40:01Joe House:The thing I have to remind myself all the time from that Queen trade that they traded the best of those two picks to Atlanta is Milwaukee still gets the other one. Like, New Orleans just gets nothing. Like, Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own and the Pelicans picks. Like, it's... The most dumbfounding decision. Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple. Like if the season goes badly for Milwaukee.

1:40:27Bill Simmons:Atlanta might have a major trade piece with that pick. All right, we're going to the Pacific. Oh, yeah. Where the LA Clippers were the second highest favorites in this division. And then LeBron had some back issues. And the odds flipped. And the Clippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49.5. They're up to 49 and a half. They sure are. They're up to 49 and a half. Ooh, nearly. They are plus 130 for the division now. They're the favorites. They are 16-1 for the title, minus 600 for the playoffs. Last year, they were 15-32. They lost Powell, Coffey, and Eubanks and added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brooke Lopez, and Chris Paul.

1:41:12Bill Simmons:They also added a pretty annoying off-season scandal that still has not been resolved. Zach, how hilarious would it be if the Clippers won the 2026 title? I'm going to give you some of the things that would happen from that. The Kawhi trade will have worked out. James Harden would get off the hump. Chris Paul would get a ring. Bradley Beal would be a cult hero. And Steve Ballmer would go from embattled Clippers owner Steve Ballmer to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac. Those are all things. On top of all the other things, the Clippers have never made the finals before.

1:41:51Bill Simmons:Anyway, I think it would be hilarious.

1:41:52Zach Lowe:It's a double legacy button. It's two. There's legacy buttons everywhere. It's legacy buttons. It's Harden's legacy. Chris Paul. It's Kawhi's legacy. It's Chris Paul getting the chip. Kawhi titles on three teams.

1:42:04Joe House:Kawhi's legacy is really going to be incredible. Like, two-time finals MVP. and just all the injury, mistime, mystery, controversy. Arguably he should have been

1:42:19Bill Simmons:the finals MVP for OKC last year. Wow. I would have voted for him. I didn't get a vote. That's so rude. Imagine that. Seven SGA votes and a vote for Kawhi Leonard. What about Paul George doesn't even get any votes? I guess he could have. Anyway, 49 and a half for the deepest kind of veterinary team in the league seemed low to me. And I'm just a... I have to go over on this. I do that knowing that Kawhi Leonard's on this team. What do you have, Zach?

1:42:57Joe House:I mentioned how I went under on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West. Yeah. I like all these teams. Love their depth. Harden, love him, hate him. look forward to his game seven shit burgers whatever the dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time which is which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with kawaii like i i can at least i know i hand him the offense they have depth i was gonna go over 48 and a half if i'm going over 48 and a half i should go over 49 and a half i'm over i'm over the age really makes me nervous you seem really excited like like bogdanovich is already a little banged up cp's ancient you know like it is one of those on paper versus the actual because if you go through it's like well chris paul's over 40 brooke lopez kind of looked like you know

1:43:48Bill Simmons:on the on the last legs of being a productive rotation guy last year zoo zoo plays every game and plays a ton of ton of minutes you mean my third team all nba yeah pick last year zoo perfect spot for deserved it too i also think they actually have a little bit of a home court advantage now which is the opposite of where they've been forever. There's like good energy at these games

1:44:07Joe House:in the aspiration dome. A little bit of us against the world energy now. Oh, especially now.

1:44:11Bill Simmons:I mean, the league's trying to bring down the Clippers. What do you have, House?

1:44:16Zach Lowe:This team won 51 games in 2023, 24, 50 games last year and a total under 50. Sign me the fuck up. I will take the over. Thank you, sir.

1:44:26Joe House:We all went over on the Clippers at 49 and a half. That's not a small number, 49 and a half. in the West.

1:44:31Zach Lowe:This is with Ty Lue with this group. These are professional basketball players. Who's the chump on this team?

1:44:37Bill Simmons:Yeah, one thing I like, the Collins piece I really like because I always felt like when Kawhi wasn't in there, they always just felt like Batum was the only kind of tall wing with size that they had.

1:44:49Zach Lowe:He shot 40 % from three last year, didn't he? Yeah,

1:44:52Bill Simmons:and Utah basically had to trade Collins because he was too good

1:44:55Joe House:for them. He's become the most underrated player in the NBA. I think John Collins is good. I think he's going to be good for the Clippers. good for the Clippers I don't know if he's going to start or come off the bench they've been a little cagey about that it seems like he's going to come off the bench they'll start Derrick Jones Jr. because they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kawhi which I get but he needs to play a lot, John Collins I think he checks a lot of boxes for them he's wildly underrated I had Young at least or Young in his prime at least on this team he's like a baby

1:45:25Bill Simmons:I had the OKC Denver drop Clippers. And then I would add Houston. I would add a 3A, 3B, 3C with Houston, Clippers, Minnesota. And I think Houston can't be in there anymore because of the bamboo thing. So I would say Minnesota Clippers, 3A, 3B for me.

1:45:42Joe House:I'm stunned we all went over on the Clippers.

1:45:44Bill Simmons:I'm stunned. Why?

1:45:45Joe House:They have so much talent. It's a big number and they're so old.

1:45:47Zach Lowe:They were really good in the playoffs. They're so old. Also, I got to hit the legacy button for Brad Beal. This is a chance for Brad Beal. They were really good in the playoffs? I know the way, the matchup-wise. I like the way that they matched up. I understand the outcome.

1:46:01Bill Simmons:I thought they played Denver great.

1:46:02Zach Lowe:They did.

1:46:03Joe House:They should have won that series. You get no flowers from me. But they should have won in six. Well, they didn't. You get no flowers from me for that when you embarrass yourself in game seven.

1:46:12Bill Simmons:Hot take. I thought they were the third best team in the league last year. I really did. And yet, would you ever trust them in a game seven on the road?

1:46:19Joe House:No, I wouldn't trust them at all. But I think they can win 50 games. We all make money that way.

1:46:23Zach Lowe:We wait until they get to game seven, then we make money. Look, I took the over. We're saying.

1:46:26Joe House:I'm stunned no one went just aggressively. like too old, scandal, under, boom. I thought it was like a bus sitting there for you

1:46:34Bill Simmons:to just make fun of the Clippers for 10 minutes. With the way they care about the environment through aspiration. That's it. All the trees. Trees have been planted thanks to the Clippers. The wall. You love the wall. Do you like the wall? The wall's good. The wall's good.

1:46:48Zach Lowe:We went over on the Clippers, all three of us. Remember when the bomber flew the wall,

1:46:52Joe House:the inner circle of the wall to Denver for game seven?

1:46:56Bill Simmons:it's a sad flight home yeah no I think look a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under I don't think that much has to go wrong but I'm saying like you'd have a 30 game Kawhi season okay you would have to have Chris Paul and Lopez are just washed you would have to have Beal being 10 games in like I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening and it's I guess I'll have to get used

1:47:23Joe House:to my new role I'm waiting for you to say something that's like wildly implausible. All right.

1:47:31Bill Simmons:You said over. Zubats would have to not be as durable. I don't know.

1:47:37Zach Lowe:Zubats getting hurt fucks this up. That for sure. Undoubtedly. I just think they have defense. That pick and roll with Harden was fucking awesome.

1:47:44Bill Simmons:The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they have this year is like different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing. But I felt like, I just thought they played OKC so well last year. It was the one team that I felt like, it was like boxing, could go toe-to-toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them. All right, the Lakers dropped from 49.5 to 47.5. They added DeAndre and Jake Loravia and whatever version of Marcus Smart this is going to be. They lost Finney Smith. They lost Goodwin, who I kind of liked. They're plus 220 for the division, 16-1 for the title, which is ludicrous.

1:48:28Bill Simmons:And I guess the question for me when LeBron comes back, can you actually be a contender when you have to hide your three best guys on defense? That's the part I can't wrap my head around with this team. Their three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point. LeBron can have those moments when he looks like Miami LeBron for two seconds, but for the most part...

1:48:52Joe House:He was pretty dialed in for a two-month stretch last year.

1:48:55Bill Simmons:He's going to be a year older, and now he has some sort of herniated disc, whatever makes me nervous.

1:49:03Bill Simmons:I'll just spoil my pick right now. I'm under for this. I think I have them in the 44 to 46 range. Shocker. This is a shocker. The Lakers

1:49:11Zach Lowe:hate... The whole world... Exactly, because I can't believe that Bill Simmons is not enthusiastic. How dare both of you? We came to your house when we called you out.

1:49:19Bill Simmons:They were way over on them two years ago, and I think they might have... We crushed on it.

1:49:24Zach Lowe:The challenge for me, Zach Lowe, is there used to be a rule. We used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the game's five best players are on a team, right? So we're right on the cusp here

1:49:40Bill Simmons:with the 46 and a half. I thought the same thing. Are you down to 46 and a half?

1:49:44Zach Lowe:I'm sorry, 47 and a half. It's 47 and a half. So Luka, skinny Luka. Luca with an agenda. This team is Luca's team. This is his season to make his mark. The true welcome to Los Angeles because they went out so feebly in the playoffs. And that wasn't, that's, Luca can, you know, wipe that dirt off his shoulders. This team is his team. It's going to succeed or fail with him. I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team. I can't come up with the defense for this team. I go through the personnel. I don't know. Nobody jumps off the page. And also, I can't overemphasize the respect for the LeBron.

1:50:34Zach Lowe:I don't think sciatica is not like, oh, it's this thing that gets fixed. Here's the fix for sciatica. Nope, no, no, no, no. Not when you're 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long. If you want to do over-under for games played for LeBron James, and I'll set it. I'll set it at 30 and a half. Wow. I'll set it at 30 and a half for LeBron James. Well, here's the thing. The important thing is for him to play in the playoffs.

1:51:01Joe House:So you got to get there. In the West, you got to get there. You can't have these conversations in the West for one of these teams. Like, well, we get to the playoffs. That doesn't exist in the West. But that's Luka's role. Playing exists. Yeah, Luka by himself is 42 wins. He better be. What do you think the most regular season wins a Luka Mavericks team ever got was? It was low 50s, right? 52.

1:51:22Bill Simmons:Yeah. This is why I said it. They had a couple under 40. What was the year? They made the finals 50 wins. But they had the one year when they got lively.

1:51:31Joe House:That was the tank year, so they went 38 and 44. And how many of those games did he miss, though?

1:51:37Bill Simmons:I don't think he missed as many as... Like, he was playing most of that time.

1:51:43Joe House:All right. Well, Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself. I'm going over 47 and a half. The line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it. I trust Luka. I trust Reeves. I think they have better depth this year. I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows? I've never had sciatica before. It sounds awful. 50 wins last year. Expected wins, 45. Won a lot of clutch games. Got some opponents shooting luck from three.

1:52:11Bill Simmons:They also had some crazy schedule stuff. where it felt like over and over again they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing. So yeah, I didn't feel like they were 15.

1:52:22Joe House:Well, and to lean into your Lakers exceptionalism thing, they will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any fouls. So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead 5-0. They certainly have the right head coach for that. Great point. I'm going over 40. I don't feel like this feels like optimistic. I don't think like I wouldn't go 50 on this team, but I can see 49 or 48. So I'm going to go barely, barely over.

1:52:47Bill Simmons:So part of my case for, if there was like real urgency with this season with them, I might feel differently about it. But this feels like such a transition season in so many ways.

1:52:57Joe House:The smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now, but they have more to trade later and they have the cap room thing looming. And they've been very clear, like 27.

1:53:09Bill Simmons:Oh, sorry. Yeah, we got it. Yes. hour and a half in, we finally broke Zach. He's got real regret about a pick. I'm sticking with it. I'm not letting... What's going on

1:53:20Zach Lowe:with the ownership group? Like in the sense of direction. Bill Simmons has his hand up.

1:53:25Bill Simmons:This is part of my thing. I think this is a really tumultuous year for them. You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going on with the kids. And I can't wait to see who does that. You're talking about the bus kids. The bus kids, the sale. Like there's a lot of acrimony all over the place. I feel very comfortable saying that.

1:53:43Joe House:Second, it was a four to two vote among the siblings. That means two said no. Second, you have LeBron who did all the stuff last summer.

1:53:52Bill Simmons:I know.

1:53:52Zach Lowe:We got him. His head is in his hands.

1:53:54Bill Simmons:With like, we'll be monitoring this. We'll see if they want to be competitive. And meanwhile, he has nowhere to go. And he's never been in a situation before. He's been on somebody else's team. And now House made the point. I had sciatica. I had all kinds of back shit in 03 and 04. I was working for Jimmy Kimmel's show. We would have the writers meetings. and I would just lie on the floor because I couldn't sit in a chair. Like when it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other, it does not just heal in two weeks. Like it's, and I don't care how much technology you have. It's like every hit he takes, he's going to feel it.

1:54:28Bill Simmons:And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year. So you have that, you have Rui isn't expiring, you've Gabe Benson is expiring, Maxate isn't expiring. I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade. I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Giannis. See what's going on with whoever the other stars are.

1:54:46Zach Lowe:The most important part, which was the Luka extension. They did that thing. That was the important thing.

1:54:50Bill Simmons:And they told Luka, just go nuts this year. Score 33, 34, 35 a game. Do your thing. A year from now, we're going to go all in. They gave JJ. How about the suspicious JJ extension? Guy was hired a year ago as the head coach. He got an extension. Why did he get an extension? Because they're telling him, like, we don't care if we're a contender this year. He did a good job. I don't think they care if they're a contender this year.

1:55:12Joe House:you don't think connect was the steal of the 2024 draft anymore

1:55:17Bill Simmons:i think most of the guys they have can't play defense and i would include marcus smart who i think can guard bigger guys but has no chance against point guards anymore vanderbilt's gonna have to guard everybody in the other team and we didn't mention a lot of deandre eight and this is the most fired up you've gotten the entire because i just think they have so many variables like deandre eight and two teams with deandre eight and have said please take them like you can have him. He's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of. So I see on paper he's already been a suitcase

1:55:48Joe House:and a couch in this podcast. I'm just going through furniture.

1:55:51Bill Simmons:I just don't think they care about this year. Are they over 500? I think they're, Luca, they have to be between 42 and 45. Don't be disrespectful to Luca.

1:56:01Joe House:I think they're above 500. I'm not being disrespectful. I'm taking the over. You guys are not talking me out of it. I came in here with my convictions. I'm sticking with my convictions. That a boy. Over.

1:56:09Bill Simmons:I think 48 and 34 is really hard. Especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing. That's it. 47 and 35 because the Seat is under. I set my number. I'm an under, but I do think there's a possible year from hell potential.

1:56:24Joe House:Lakers, nobody believes in you. Nobody believes in the 2025-26 Lakers. Luka, nobody believes in Fit Luka.

1:56:30Bill Simmons:There's got to be karma one way or the other. Fit Luka.

1:56:33Zach Lowe:Fit Luka. I love Fit Luka. Well, here's the other thing.

1:56:35Bill Simmons:I always think about this, too. What's the best case scenario for their season? Like 50 wins? 49 and 33?

1:56:42Joe House:There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games. I mean, you're talking best case. Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect. They get lucky in closing games. That would be fine.

1:56:52Zach Lowe:I'm rooting for it. I'm over. I'd like to watch LeBron play.

1:56:55Joe House:I want to be clear.

1:56:56Zach Lowe:I like to watch LeBron play.

1:56:57Bill Simmons:I thought there could only be one at 47 and a half and you had to go over with one and under and the other. And our next team, the Golden State Warriors, 47 and a half is the same number.

1:57:07Joe House:We just transitioned right to the Warriors? What's wrong with that?

1:57:10Bill Simmons:They're in the same division.

1:57:11Joe House:I'm fired up now because you guys are just the East Coast bias. You're feeling good. East Coast bias.

1:57:19Bill Simmons:Golden State, 47.5. I don't think you could take over for Golden State and the Lakers. Why? You have to pick one.

1:57:27Joe House:You know who has two thumbs and took under for the Denver Nuggets for this exact reason? This guy right here. You don't get to tell me what I can do on your own podcast. That's fair. Fair enough.

1:57:37Bill Simmons:Fair enough. Damn. plus 220 for the division Golden State. 27-1 for the title. Same odds as the Atlanta Hawks. Minus 420 for the playoffs. Plus 130 for the play-in house. Now I'm fired up. Plus 130 for the play-in. They lost Looney. They added Al Horford, the most beloved Celtic teammate probably in the history of the franchise. And they added Seth Curry. They have a veteran, good karma, good personality, professional team and Jonathan Kaminga.

1:58:11Zach Lowe:Tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team in whenever they decide to trade him. Who's it going to be? Because Jonathan Kaminga, they're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Kaminga.

1:58:26Bill Simmons:I had that as one of my questions.

1:58:29Zach Lowe:Where is he playing in February? Because it won't be a gold state. I earnestly ask that question because it will help me determine. I have a big question mark. I don't know what to do with this team.

1:58:38Joe House:I went through all the fake Kaminga trades last week, and I don't remember what they all were off the top of my head, but it was actually kind of hard to find one that was realistic. Is Markkinen not realistic?

1:58:52Bill Simmons:Markkinen's realistic for me.

1:58:54Joe House:It would have to be Kaminga and everything else. Remember, he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the Warriors than it does for the team that gets in, which is tricky. Doesn't that help with Markkinen?

1:59:06Bill Simmons:because marketing is expensive, isn't he?

1:59:08Joe House:I feel like it never helps. Okay.

1:59:11Bill Simmons:Well, so right now, they would be starting, I would guess, Draymond with Kaminga, Butler, Podzemski, and Curry. Horford, Heald, Moody, Jackson Davis, GP2, and Post off the bench. But they have contracts they can put together. They have all their picks. Except one,

1:59:32Joe House:which they owe you guys.

1:59:34Bill Simmons:Frisky. Yeah, let's go. Right.

1:59:35Joe House:That's the Jordan Poole. But they can trade a piece of that pick.

1:59:38Bill Simmons:Is the best case scenario of a 2026 Warriors season top six in the West just being one of the six teams?

1:59:45Zach Lowe:Yeah, for sure. Yes. Remember, 48 wins was the number to make the play-in in the West last year. And this team, to me, looks like a 48-ish win team. Now, the number moved. The market responded to the Lakers' injury. Yeah. To the LeBron's injury. The Lakers have been docked. And the Warriors, the beneficiary.

2:00:11Joe House:Nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers except for me. My hand's up.

2:00:14Zach Lowe:I like it. I don't, yeah, it's good.

2:00:16Bill Simmons:Good. Here's, here's another case for Golden State if you're going to go over. They were just really good the last 30 games of the season. Yep. They're 22 and eight. They were 8.8 plus net rating. They had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch. This is all with Butler. and I just think when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy. The question and the issue with the overrunners with a team like this is just you got old guys. I'm counting on Butler, Curry, and Draymond to play minutes. They had to go 22 and 8 down the stretch

2:00:52Zach Lowe:to make the effing play-in. Right. They weren't going to make it. Urgency. Yeah. Right.

2:00:57Joe House:But their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler. like their turnover rate went way down their free throw weight went way up they're forcing turnovers on defense went way up it was like they just injected all this stuff they didn't have yeah that came in one guy who can play their cut and screen and move style of play like without

2:01:18Bill Simmons:any tutorial just walk in and also you go from having curry to now curry where there's less attention on him so you're getting a better curry on top of all these other things and also just

2:01:30Joe House:We talked about with Denver, when Curry goes to the bench, we actually have a reliable thing. This was one of the easiest overs on the board for me. I'll press my lock button for the first time. This is a lock over. This is amazing. I worry about their playoff getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple of playoff series because they're so old. But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47.

2:01:56Bill Simmons:The chemistry is going to be awesome. And I do.

2:01:58Joe House:My eyes pop. My eyes pop when all the projection systems like Pelton, Hollinger, are spitting out huge numbers for this team. If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, Vegas is missing something.

2:02:10Bill Simmons:Horford, too. Because part of the problem with them, just the way the league has changed, with just being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space, right? And you're just flipping Looney for Horford is so massive for him. If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post-roll. They're playing post a bunch who I don't even think, I'll do respect to him, is not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game. Now you have Horford who then can play defense too. I think they're going to be really good defensively. And I just like the team.

2:02:44Zach Lowe:I have a question for you guys. And then, well, let me ask. We haven't made a pick yet. I know because I have a question. I'd like to ask the question first. How many games do you think that Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy Butler will play together? There's 82 games. How many of those 82 games will those three guys be healthy to play?

2:03:02Bill Simmons:Is it also fair to say this will be our last happy Jimmy Butler season before he'll then have a year left? So this next summer will be when he starts up with the, I don't know what's happened to my contract. Would you say that to his face? Huh? I probably would, actually.

2:03:21Joe House:You would like it if you did.

2:03:22Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's like, hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year?

2:03:26Joe House:Maybe.

2:03:27Zach Lowe:so you're my question is how many because that that that is important to i think or is it not

2:03:34Bill Simmons:but doesn't matter i would say it's 60 plus for me i don't think so i think it's lower than that

2:03:39Joe House:i was gonna say 45 or 50 that all three of them play together about the 55 maybe are you talking about injury or they're gonna like say whatever injury and like they're just i'm going higher like they're all project to be like 65 game players so you just start doing the math of how much of those overlap. So if you have two of those three guys

2:03:57Zach Lowe:for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter, right? I feel good. Okay. So I feel good.

2:04:02Bill Simmons:On the one side with Curry, Curry has been, I don't, Steph looked a little gamey tonight. I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow. Like he'll just, he'll always do that. Yes. On the other side, they really hated being in the play-in last year and just all the, all the miles you have to put on yourselves. In games like that, I don't think they want any part of it. I think they want to be in the top six, which makes me the question for me though zach they'd have to jump okc not happening denver not happening minnesota probably not happening The Clippers, I'm going to say, not happening. Houston, Lakers, San Antonio.

2:04:42Bill Simmons:So they have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically. I mean, that's where it gets hard. They're going to have to be in the 49 range. For me, it gets easier.

2:04:50Joe House:They're not jumping. They don't have to jump San Antonio. They are ahead of San Antonio last year and coming into this year.

2:04:55Bill Simmons:But we just made the case earlier that Wemby has a chance to be like... You guys made that case, not me.

2:05:00Joe House:But this is why I said when Van Vliet got injured.

2:05:03Zach Lowe:Yeah.

2:05:06Joe House:Like, it's not hard to come seventh in the West. Like, not a lot has to go wrong for your team for you to suddenly be in the play-in tournament. And Houston fans, like, I'm not saying they will. I think they're going to be a little better than that. But, like, you can't pencil any of these teams below Oklahoma City and Denver into the third seed. Like, just, like, no-brainer.

2:05:23Zach Lowe:If you win 47 games, you're in the play-in. You're looking at, you're, like, fighting to make the play-in. I am going to take the over. I want to be on the record with this team. I think they're going to win 48 games. You just fucking copycatted us. That was bullshit. No, I didn't. We talked it through.

2:05:37Bill Simmons:Ridiculous. I like their depth, too. You should have come in with the pick.

2:05:40Joe House:I like Melton.

2:05:41Bill Simmons:I was cheating. Moody's cheater.

2:05:43Joe House:What are you talking about? You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over. I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it. Sticking with it. You mentioned the Houston play-in possibilities.

2:05:52Bill Simmons:Yeah, what are the odds? Plus 330 on Fandle. Kind of intriguing. Before the season starts. Because there's going to be a play-in team in the West that we do not think was going to be in the play-in.

2:06:01Joe House:Older L.A., L.A., Golden State teams is going to just run into a pile of bad injury luck and just like something is going to go wrong for one of these teams. It's literally the Lakers. Lakers plus 155. Nobody believes in the Lakers. Playing.

2:06:14Bill Simmons:Two more. Contractually, we have to do these last two teams. Contractually, I'm just getting fired up now. The Sacramento Kings, they're over under is 35 and a half. They are plus 360 for the playoffs. They 2-1 for the play-in. They lost Larabia and Valenshunas. They added Schroeder. They added the artists formerly known as Dario Saric and Drew Eubanks. And they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of the season. And they also had some weird off-season stuff with Vivek's daughter being kind of peripherally involved in this Chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy. in general I mean just saying that Kings had a weird anything is kind of I don't know if I needed to say that do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly incompetent Zach oh yeah okay you think they get enough yeah I just want to make sure yeah no there's because they're about to get more so we can we can keep going one playoff series appearance since 06 they haven't won a playoff series since 04 they have made the finals ever and they just seem to keep popping up whenever weird shit happens with the NBA.

2:07:31Bill Simmons:I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was. Once upon a time, two years ago, it feels like 20 would light the beam. And then they just decided to reassemble the 2023 Chicago Bulls with Sabonis. And that's where we are now.

2:07:47Joe House:I would like to congratulate Vegas again. I don't know how to do this. I don't know. I'm not a gambling guy. team in the last three years has won 48 46 and 40 games and vegas is like yeah how about 35 and a half how about you eat that crappy number of sacramento kings and i could not be more aggressively under even on that low number give me all the kings under stock i hate this team i hate this roster i hate the keegan murray's already injured i hate the vibes i hate everything i think this is going to be a year from hell for the kings i'm taking under under you didn't even mention coach doug christie under could not be like it's a low number and i just could not be more like this this is the year from hell who's playing defense on this team well why are demar de rosen and zach levine on the same team anymore ever like i i hate everything about the dennis schroeder i don't hate i don't hate everything there are parts i don't mind i hate the construction of the team i hate I just hate it.

2:08:48Bill Simmons:I'm going under. House, are there... So we'll say Utah. Is there another West team you like less than the Kings? No.

2:08:57Zach Lowe:No, no, no. This team, it is the epitome of shit alchemy. Taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit. This team had Tyrese Halliburton on it. This team had De 'Aaron Fox on it. This team had a beam. I liked lighting the effing beam. That was an amazing season. I enjoyed that season. I'm sorry. I got a lot. I'm sorry.

2:09:23Joe House:What happened? No, I'm just like, who's the backup power forward on this team? Doug McDermott? Look at the depth on this team. Nick Clifford's got to step in and play like 30 minutes a game. Like Sarge is going to play. Why? What is that? Hey, you didn't play at all for the Nuggets.

2:09:38Bill Simmons:We'll take you. Also, they tried to trade Malik Monk. Monk? Malik Monk. I did it, Huss. Our first one of the season. My first one. Love it.

2:09:48Joe House:We got to many of the Yugoslavian players. They tried to trade him all summer. I kind of like him. There's still time to do it. I would take it. This team stinks.

2:09:57Bill Simmons:They tried to trade Carter for Kaminga.

2:10:00Joe House:The whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long. It just stinks. I could not be more happy to take an under on a low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years.

2:10:12Bill Simmons:I wrote, here are some of my notes. this is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space. They have no young studs. They have no under 25 player. You're like, this guy. They have no chance. There's no point for the team. There's no five-man rotation you can put together with the players they have that could win two games in a playoff series if they played all 48 minutes without a bench. I like Keon Ellis. They messed that one up too. This is just, I hate it. I mean, thank God for these guys that Joe Dumars came back to New Orleans and was able to do his thing because this is the height of ineptness.

2:10:54Bill Simmons:And some of the East teams have gotten more competent. Some of the ones that we've had from an inept standpoint, like Charlotte, Detroit, you know, the Wizards. They were like some really dumb, stupid. And now we just have the Nets. And we have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three. I'm a hard under as well, House, and I assume you are too. Yes. Okay. Three-enders.

2:11:15Joe House:I think this is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year.

2:11:23Bill Simmons:Also, it might be the number one fan base really mad at the team by December. I'm trying to think of a fan base that would be mad at the team.

2:11:32Zach Lowe:Chicago's hard to beat. Oh, yeah. Wow, wait till we get to them.

2:11:36Bill Simmons:No, but Chicago's just trapped in a loveless marriage.

2:11:39Zach Lowe:If you're a Chicago Bulls fan, you have no hope every year. Zach, I think you, this was on your podcast, maybe with Nakayesh yesterday. This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA finals. Didn't take a break. I think that was on your pod. I think I heard that on your pod. I don't even remember. But yeah, my brow went from this goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that will be my pick for the NBA finals in the East.

2:12:17Bill Simmons:Also, why did they trade De 'Aaron Fox? Why did they have to do it when they did it? What was the point of that? Because he asked for it. He asked. Okay. We'll talk about it after the season, De 'Aaron. That's what the max money was for. Let's try to make it through this year. We'll talk this summer. Instead, they made this crappy trade that nobody liked. Well, just when you think you can't get worse, here's the Phoenix Suns. Over under 31 and a half. That's a low number. New coach, Jordan Ott. Yeah, like him. They lost Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, among other players. They lost half their team.

2:12:54Bill Simmons:They added Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They have centers now, Mark Williams and Malioc. Malioc. Malioc. Did I say it right? Malawatch. Zach gave me the word. They have to swap 2026 first with Washington, but might not have to because Washington's also going to be bad. Plus 680 for the playoffs, plus 200 for the plan. And they're paying Devin Booker. My math might be off, but I think he makes $143 million this year. Somewhere in there. 133, 143. Their starting lineup is, looks like Mark Williams, Royce O 'Neal, Dylan Brooks Devin Booker and Jalen Green How many minutes of league pass are you going to watch of this team?

2:13:40Bill Simmons:Over under 50? Oh, a lot. Why? This team intrigues me.

2:13:45Zach Lowe:Why? Because I think that they have something to prove I'm actually interested in this team I think that this is a curious experiment You know, Ishbia Like how S &M is an experiment? Well, that would make a snow film as an experiment. No, no, no. We don't go that dark. I'm not that mean. I'm not that mean. Yeah. No, I actually think that this team with with Booker is incented to try. I like it was so dead there last year. The breathing the new life into the thing. I'm actually kind of intrigued. Counter. They could just suck and keep either their pick or Washington's pick

2:14:31Bill Simmons:and have a top five pick. They don't have to do anything. That's going to happen. Right? Probably might happen. They're probably the third worst team in the West, Zach. Second or third. I don't think they keep – I think their pick swap is so complicated.

2:14:48Joe House:I think Memphis has left them in pick swap rights in this morass of picks. I'm not sure how their pick swap works. They don't control their own picks.

2:14:55Bill Simmons:I did so much research for this pod. It's impossible.

2:15:01Joe House:It's a giant paragraph right here, but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is like almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick. In any case, I don't care either way. I'm going under anyway. It doesn't matter to me. I do think there's, I'm kind of with you where like there's some, they got a lot of, and I mean this in a good way, like a lot of tweener forwards on the team that i'm interested in sort of like brooks and o 'neill and fleming the kid they just drafted and iguadoro and done they trend a little big which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever it's it's the ball handling behind booker that makes me really really nervous if he misses any amount of time it's point jail and green or it's like calling in colin gillespie for like super duper emergency 25 minute of game duty that makes me very nervous.

2:15:53Joe House:The youth of the centers makes me very nervous. Mark Williams missing half of every season makes me nervous. Mark Williams being frantically traded by his team even though he's 23 years old. There's some Dylan Brooks, like, flip you for a future pick potential. Sure, yeah. Which I think he's like a sneaky, interesting trade candidate.

2:16:13Bill Simmons:Me too.

2:16:13Joe House:I think I'm with you that there's stuff to, like, not hate here. And the number is very low, but I'm still going under because in this conference, I just have too many questions about the roster.

2:16:23Bill Simmons:So I think you're right, Zach, on that. It's super complicated, but it looks like Charlotte's involved. Memphis is involved. I think Memphis. They did a use of Nurkic trade where they kind of dumped some sort of protection with something with 26.

2:16:40Joe House:Were you going over either way? No, I wasn't going over. No, I'm going to correct it.

2:16:44Bill Simmons:You're going over?

2:16:44Zach Lowe:I am going over. Yeah, I am. I am. Because 32 and 50 is a terrible record. and you know they're still absolutely absurd it's fine they won 33 games last year

2:16:57Joe House:or 36 games last year

2:16:58Zach Lowe:with a roster where they hated everybody hated each other and the coach

2:17:03Bill Simmons:I mean coach Bud Light can we talk about Jalen Green and Devin Booker sharing a backcourt together I think it'll be fine fine in what context ask Jordan Ott

2:17:13Joe House:this is a little bit Jordan Ott's gonna be a good coach I agree ask Jordan Ott but this is the place where coaches go to die. And like, you know, I mean,

2:17:23Zach Lowe:all the has been retread coaches. This is a new young, you know, terrible pick. Look, literally,

2:17:31Joe House:I love it.

2:17:32Zach Lowe:I actually love it. Monty Williams made his mark with this. He went on to the, the, the ignominy that he deserved, but Monty Williams, you know, this is, there's a playbook for ignominy. That's a word.

2:17:46Bill Simmons:You mean ignominy? Say it however you want. How about the correct way? Pull it up on Google, on the Google machine. So you're going over for the Suns.

2:17:57Zach Lowe:It's just 32 wins. That's a shit team with a shit record. I think they are either the second or third worst West team.

2:18:08Bill Simmons:Lock it down.

2:18:09Zach Lowe:I mean, that's kind of fine.

2:18:11Joe House:I love that you're going over. I am going over. Because there's more talent here than people think. I agree. I just don't think it's enough.

2:18:17Zach Lowe:This guy who came from the MVP season in Europe. He played really good. Yeah, Hayes Davis. Another guy.

2:18:25Bill Simmons:Phoenix made the 2021 finals, and then they went 64-18 in 2022. Yep. Heading into that playoffs, they're a 64-win team. And Luka broke them. Luka broke the whole franchise. Luka broke them. KD trade, Beal trade. They lost all their picks and swaps, plus Bridges, Cam Johnson. They lost Aiton. they went from 45, 49, 37 wins. They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.

2:18:50Joe House:The Aiden thing, like the Nerkit, they also traded Kamara in that trade. God, right. It's like a sneaky disaster,

2:18:58Bill Simmons:like trade within a trade. It's one of the great, terrible three-year runs in the history of the league by a front office ownership, which would be, that'd be a fun podcast for a rainy day. Just the all-time worst anti-haters by a team. just a three-year shit fest how many different kings stretches could we put be tough you have to pick eras you don't know they couldn't overlap the errors you couldn't take 2012 to 14 if 14 to 16 was in there all right we're gonna go backwards and go through all of our picks okay and you guys tell me what the locks are oklahoma city 62 and a half we all went over lock i'm locking a 62 and

2:19:42Joe House:a half over. I'm locking it. It's one of my how many locks do am I required to lock up?

2:19:47Bill Simmons:You can honestly do as many as you want up to 10.

2:19:49Joe House:I want a minimum number. I don't want that many locks. Six is my minimum. Six to eight. Yes.

2:19:55Zach Lowe:Double lock for OKC. I'm not locking it. I like the over. You guys talk me into it.

2:20:00Bill Simmons:Denver Nuggets 53 and a half. House and I went over. Zach went under.

2:20:04Zach Lowe:I am a lock on Denver over 53 and a half. Okay. Very exciting.

2:20:11Bill Simmons:Minnesota Timberwolves. All three of us are over at 49.5.

2:20:14Zach Lowe:Lock it. Okay. I'm joining Zach. I need more locks. I'm joining Zach on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves. I'm going to stay away.

2:20:25Bill Simmons:Portland, 34.5. Under, under, under for all three of us. Yeah. Utah, 19.5. Under, under, under for all three of us.

2:20:34Joe House:I can't believe we all went under on 19.5. Congratulations to the Utah Jays.

2:20:38Bill Simmons:Houston Rockets 52 and a half Three unders for us It's a borderline lock Oh you're locking that? Locking the under, wow I want to lock it But I really want to root for the Rockets To be good because I think we need one more Really good basketball team But that seems way too high I'm going to stay away San Antonio, 43 and a half Over for me, over for Zach Under for house I'm locking this down 43 and a half over for me I'm not joining you Dallas Mavericks 40 and a half over for me under for Zach over for house it's a lock for me you said that you looked right into my eyes I'm locking it Memphis 39 and a half under for me under for Zach over for house

2:21:32Joe House:I thought I went over on Memphis I went over on Memphis

2:21:35Bill Simmons:I'll switch you to over

2:21:36Joe House:I didn't even remember you going under. Under.

2:21:40Bill Simmons:New Orleans, 30 and a half. Three overs.

2:21:45Joe House:Obviously, a franchise you can trust to that level. What could go wrong? Clippers, three overs. Unbelievable.

2:21:55Bill Simmons:Someone should just go under on principle. Lakers, under 47 and a half for me and for Joe House, over for Zach Lowe. You hear that, Lakers fans? Lakers. Right into the camera. He says it right into the camera. Golden State Warriors. 47 and a half. Three overs. Lock. I already locked it. I pre-locked it. Yeah, you did lock it. I pre-locked it.

2:22:21Bill Simmons:I'm not going to lock it. Because of the old guys. But I am going to lock this next one. Sacramento 35 and a half. It is

2:22:31Zach Lowe:3 o 'clock. That's the legacy. No, no, no. I'm not locking it. You're not locking it? No. What are you doing? They're so weird. It's a disaster.

2:22:40Joe House:I have like four different locks. I have a combination lock. I have a bike lock. I have a chain lock.

2:22:45Zach Lowe:Tire lock.

2:22:46Joe House:Every possible lock.

2:22:47Zach Lowe:Vagina lock. Three-hunters. For Doug Christie.

2:22:51Bill Simmons:That's right.

2:22:52Zach Lowe:Yeah.

2:22:53Bill Simmons:Yeah, I forgot about that story. That's right. Phoenix, 31 and a half. Under for me, under for Zach, over for house.

2:23:02Zach Lowe:Lock it up. I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the Clippers as well. I'm applying a lock for the Clippers over 49 and a half. It's not retroactive. We're talking about it now. I have Denver, Minnesota, and the Clippers as lock overs.

2:23:17Bill Simmons:You know what? Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm going to lock in Denver over 53 and a half as well. With my guy, Nikoli Jokic. My favorite non-Seltic. Are you on Jokic Island? I'm Jokic Continent. Uh, that's it for part one of the, uh, NBA overrunners. Part two will be the East. It's going up about, uh, 12, 15 hours after you listen or watch to this one, which you can hopefully watch on Spotify or wherever you get your pods. Uh, thanks to Chris. Thanks to Eduardo. Thanks to Ronick as well. And, uh, we will see you for part two.

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