NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East With Zach Lowe and Joe House

27:52I think this team just has a bunch of professional dudes who really got a taste of it for a long, prolonged stretch of time last year and really understood this is the level it needs to be at. This feels great to be here. I don't want to lose this. I was watching the preseason, San Antonio, Indiana last night. Just Toppin. Toppin's going to play more minutes this year. Toppen's like ready for it. Toppen's good. You think Toppen's like, oh no, we lost Miles Turner. He's like, fuck that. More minutes for me. Siakam, Neesmith, Mathurin. You think he's like super upset that he's going to be getting all the Tyrese Halliburton touches for six months?

28:33Contract year Mathurin. Could be. Love Nembhard. I'm excited to see what he can do with more stuff. I've always liked Jairus Walker. I've been kind of mentioning that for the last two years. I really want to see what happens with him. And I guess the thing for me is, can they kind of mismatch Phil the Turner stuff? The Toppin, with Isaiah Jackson, with Huff. Can they just kind of piece together a facsimile of his numbers? A facsimile? A facsimile. Facsimile. Facsimile. Yeah. I'm sorry, was that ignominious? Well, you're going to... It's where facts machine comes from. Fiximily. Fiximily. I think they can patch together his numbers on offense.

29:22Defense probably won't be the same, but he was a real liability in that OKC series. I like Huff. I really like Carlisle. My biggest fear is beyond Halbert and can they survive the loss of James Johnson? What he brought. Knowing that you're winning any bench-clearing brawl so you can be aggressive because James Johnson's right there. He's your double deuce bouncer. I'm a hard over and it's a borderline lock for me. Wow. Yeah. Okay. I think they're going to be good. It doesn't feel good to me to take the under on a team of serious professional basketball players. I'm doing it anyway. There's something about the season after an overachieving team that had some sort of bad something.

30:04Somebody left. Somebody got injured, whatever. But there's still the DNA of what it took to get to where you got the year before that I think carries over. I really do. Okay. Strong agree with that. Yeah. I think they're going to be in above 500. You're only asking me to win 37 games. And I guess my thing was, how much of the DNA is Halliburton? Right. I would argue the DNA is more from Carlisle and that style they had with all these ball handlers, all this pressure, all this unselfishness. It's a little like what I, not to step on the Celtics section, But I think the Celtics had a real style and a system that even if you take Tatum out of it, which is awful, he's one of the best six players in the league, they're still going to shoot threes.

30:49They're still going to have guys who do certain things and they still know who they are. I like when teams know who they are compared to like a Sacramento. I guess I just take one more shot at them. Do they know who they are or are they just tough mentally and physically? Like, who are they without Tyrese Halliburton and Miles Turner? I don't know who they are. Well, I think Shepard is going to have to step up. Serious dude. And then Matherin. Basically, those guys are going to split the minutes for the Halliburton 30-plus minutes a game. I don't know. I think they're going to be good. You guys are making me feel bad.

31:23That's not the point. Don't worry. You can make fun of me for this next one. The Chicago Bulls, 32-and-a-half. Last year, they were 39-43. They lost Lonzo Ball and added Isaac Okoro, plus a lottery pick who won't play. playoffs plus 320. Year two of Boozelis. They went 17 and 10 after the All-Star break and then the 10th net break in the league. So, House, why would they go 32 and 50 in a worse East with guys that are a year older? I don't think they are. I'm not taking the under on this team. Billy Donovan, nine of the last 10 seasons, has won at least 39 games. This franchise has given us no indication that they intend to rewrite the play-in purgatory that they are in.

32:10That is their playbook. It's the safest non-tanking bet in the NBA because they just want to go 40-42 every year for the rest of eternity. They want to go to the play-in and lose Miami. That is the goal of the Chicago Bulls. They are perfectly aligned to meet that goal this season. I am taking the over on the Chicago Bulls. To them, 40-42 is 62-20. That's exactly right. I think the better question is why is this line so low for a team that's won 40, 39, and 39 why is the line so low I actually think the line is very well placed I think this team is going to win fewer games than it did last year despite the bulk of the team being young I think the roster is just full of question marks on the wing almost across the board Vuce's defense is getting worse and worse every year I don't know how they build a competent defense out of this team.

33:01I don't know how they build an above-average offense out of this team, but 32.5 is just too low. It's too low for a team that's going to run like hell to try to get to that magical 38-39 win mark in the play-in. So I'm going over, but I think the line is shrewd. I think this is a worse... I'm going over, and I see 34 and 48. I thought the line should have been 34.5. I thought you were getting two free wins. One thing I like about this team as a bad team is they actually know who they are. They have a style. I went to that Laker game last year when they just ran up and down and tried to run the Lakers off the court.

33:36Was that the giddy heave? Was that game? Yeah. Yeah. The giddy white together. I really like Bozelis. Me too. Yes. And I think there's a little under the hood with him to kind of bump this up. And they have more of a bench this year. I mean, even having guys like Herter and Zach Collins. These guys are at least like... A coros. 10th level coros. These guys are like rotation guys. Bench capable. I think it's an easy over at this number. If you had set the over at 38 and a half, I would have been an under at that, which is where it should be based on what they've done the past year. It's interesting that the line is still...

34:12They were also 29 and 40 last year, finished 10 and three against a pretty angel food cake schedule. So there's some, like, might be some fake right there. But that's the thing. We know they don't tank. They, for whatever reason, don't believe in tanking. I said it's like one of those rom-coms that come on Netflix. that my wife is trying to decide whether she should click on it or not. And the thumbnail has Kate Mara, Patrick Dempsey, and Connie Britton. And my wife's like, huh, I kind of like all three of those people, but I've never heard of this movie. Should I click on this? Is this movie good?

34:49I'm like, I don't know. First of all... That's the 34 and 48 team. You got to stop right now. Connie Britton? You cannot... Disparage Connie Britton? You cannot comp Dartmouth College's own Connie Britton with anybody on the Chicago Bulls roster. Don't do it. Take it back. Delete it from the podcast. Mrs. Coach. Mrs. Coach. I won't have it. I won't have it. All right. You want to compare her to an all-star, fine. Okay. Not anyone on this team. Last 10 years, the Bulls are 349 and 444. Great. Mission accomplished. Sixth worst record. the other five teams are all in the east Pistons number one Wizards two Hornets three Magic four Nets five Bulls six the six worst teams in the league the last ten years the Kings not being on that list is one of the greatest upsets that I can like what they lit the beam but we're all over we're all over on the Bulls my stock guy oh

35:56boozellus really boozellus island well zach's right here not everything can be an island everybody loves boozellus zach said there's no value okay not everything can be an island how dare you is there do we are we gonna have one island we're gonna create this if you want to create an island i do want to create an island this year how about you create Dale and Terry Island? Julian Phillips Island? Those are islands. Those are islands. I have a couple Celtics Islands. Pat Williams Island? Pat Williams Island had a decent population for a while. It's deserted. It is, yeah. The volleyball is floating off the coast.

36:36Nothing. Josh Minot Island might come up later. Oh, God. All right. So we're all going over on the bulls. Over, over, over. Wow. It's a sad state of affairs. The New York Knicks are coming up after we take a break.

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38:26Call 888-789-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. The Atlantic Division, the New York Knicks, over under 52 and a half, minus 250 for the division, plus 380 for the conference, 11-1 to win the title, plus 280 for the one seed house. They added Yavasele, who we all love. Whatever's left of Malcolm Brogdon. Whatever's left of Jordan Clarkson. They lost Precious Achua and they exchanged Tibbs for Mike Brown. Will that solve this? Solve whatever's ailing the next act well. I don't know what it will solve. It's one of those things you can kind of see coming based on how the Indiana series was going.

39:08I'm just going to come out and just say right now, they were also pretty healthy last year with their core guys. But I'm just going to lead with it. I've seen a lot of unders on this number. A lot of the projection systems are under. It's a big number. What did they win last year? 51 games? 51 and 31. I'm going over on the Knicks. I feel good about it. I think this is good. There's this line of thinking like, well, you know, a Tibbs team always maximizes regular season win totals. He overplays everybody, blah, blah, blah. There's probably going to be a regression this year. I think this team is deeper.

39:40I think the core holdover guys are pretty hungry to prove, hey, we're not just like some sort of paper tiger from the East. We're a real team. We get more continuity. We got cat in the door right before the season started. I know it's a big number. Like I feel pretty good going over on 52 and a half. I think the Knicks are going to win more games than that. It is a lock over for me. I think this next team is loaded. I am putting it's a two unit play on the one seed for me. I think the Knicks are the best team in the East. And I think the two things about what Zach just said that resonate, Mike Brown is going to come in and immediately free up some aspects of the offense.

40:21Their bench, I think, averaged under 22 points a game last year. They had, scoring-wise, one of the most bereft benches in the league in terms of scoring talent. They have addressed that. They have adults. And I think that the bit that we saw with Brunson injured in the run-up to the playoffs, the onset of the playoffs, where that team got a little more diverse on offense, I think that that clicks. That works with a Mike Brown offense. And I think that that's going to translate into regular season wins. I think they are built for it. I think it's going to be a New York party all season long this upcoming season.

41:01It's a lock for the KNICKS. Mitch Robb, can we get a real season out of him? That's a game changer in terms of just their versatility on both ends of the floor. I just, I've seen a lot of the projection systems be low on the Knicks. I'm the opposite. I test drove it. I really tried to talk myself into it because I felt like I had one too many overs. And you just go back to last year, the Towns trade happens right before the season, basically. And Mitch doesn't play for two-thirds of the season. And their bench was fucking awful. They still won 51 games. And I think Yavasele is really good. I don't know why more teams weren't on him.

41:41I thought, I really like Cornette too, but Cornette going for twice the price of Yavasele, I thought was crazy. I also think there's some McBride stuff with them that they can unlock. Because as a Celtic fan going against them, I was happy when they would take them out. And there's some him and Brunson together stuff I think they could do. I don't know. I just, him, I don't think Brogdon has anything left. I guess we'll find out. Spot minutes and he's smart. He's not a big dummy. Maybe. He's not a dummy. I do think it's... And then Shamit found himself in the playoffs a little bit. So maybe they have 10 guys.

42:16I like Shamit. It's confusing to me that Shamit can never hold down. Like you can't just be a consistent 10th man. Like no one seems to trust him. I like him. I like him for this team. There's home court advantage too with them. And the tips thing was just super weird last year. It was weird to watch in person. He was playing everybody too many minutes. Um, the only thing that really worried me was if the Giannis thing goes bad and all that rumor stuff starts and trades and, and just this team being in trade rumors could undermine something. I don't, I always feel like we underrate that. It would always happen with LeBron teams where starting December, January, February, these guys were just being rumors.

42:56And then you could see how it would affect the team. Townsend and Ananobi would be the natural some sort of piece for Giannis. And it's just, if they're just going to be in rumors from January on, I think that fucks the team up. But I don't think it's going to be enough to... I don't... In a bad East, 54, 55 feels right. Right? Yeah. And this is, you know, like they're... It's an organization that's all on the same page. It's the CAA, right? It's the CAA organization. Everybody's seeing eye to eye. There isn't any backstabbing. There isn't going to be any undermining. You're just trying to suck up to vino right now.

43:31Well, I mean, I always suck up to vino because I was saying, how else am I going to get a beautiful master's best out of, you know, with the CA logo on it. But there is something to be bought. I don't know if you know. That is right hand up. I think. Yes. There's something to be said for that institutional stability and Mike Brown that fit like there's a fit to the whole thing. There's going to be a real energy around this team this year, especially if if Cleveland starts out a little gamey, if the Bucs start out 9-10. This is the most exciting slash pressurized New York Knicks season from the jump since Patrick Ewing's prime.

44:09Yeah, this is a midnight. That's what's at stake. And that's the thing. Those Knicks teams would go 16-22, 59-23, whatever. All right, we're all in line. Wow. Lock on the Knicks. I thought for sure somebody would be under. I really want, I tried. I test drove it. I looked at it. I just couldn't get there. I'm going to look up what Pelton, some of the projections are like, Oh, sure. Wow. The problem is when you actually start looking at their schedule and you're like, well, they're going to be favored by 11 in that one. They'll be favored by 15 in that one. They'll be favored by 8 there. This will be more fun.

44:38The Philadelphia 76ers. For the record, Pelton has then projected 47 wins to the Knicks. Crazy. Okay. Philadelphia 42 and a half. Plus 490 for the division. 13-1 for the conference. Minus 240 for the playoffs. They were 24 and 58. during a tanktastic 2024-25 campaign. They added BJ Edgecombe. They lost Yaviscelli. They're getting Embiid back, we think. McCain's hurt already for a while. When does McCain come back? That's going to be unclear. I don't think it's too, too long. Yeah, it's not. Like into December, the end of November. There's a scenario where this team, Embiid, who's skinnier, we should mention, where skinny and bead and some guards and a slightly rejuvenated Paul George and stuff's happening.

45:32There's also a scenario where the coach and GM are just getting cleaned out in like January. If you had to pick one of those two scenarios, what would you pick, Zach? You have to pick one. What was the first one? First one is skinny and bead, some guards. The vibes are good. Didn't realize Paul George had this much left in the tank. Oh, can kind of see the vision. I think that's a little more likely than everyone gets fired in December, January. I don't particularly think either one is likely, but we'll get there. Great. What do you got? What do you got for this team? There's almost no number that's realistic that you could have given me where I would take the over.

46:11I just can't do it. I'm sorry. I can't do it. I get the upside scenarios. I get that they shot. I looked this up yesterday. because last year, you can point to the missed games and they missed a ton of games. Everyone knows that. Last year was also the first year that they were not good with Embiid on the floor. Like it was the first year that they were either neutral or like with all three of Embiid and George and Maxie, they were plus two with Embiid on the plus two, like total points. So like neutral. You know what the big reason for that was? Other than that he was hurt and seemingly out of shape.

46:44Yeah, he wasn't the same guy. He doesn't protect the rim anymore. Well, look, I'm just saying. The rim protection stats with him were terrible last year. And PG, for as disappointing as he was, it wasn't like he became abysmal. He was 16 a game, 43 % shooting, 36 % on threes. It's kind of what you would expect for a player entering the tail end of their time in the NBA, in his mid-30s. It's a low number. I just cannot, in good conscience, go over it. I just can't. I don't trust the infrastructure. And I say that, I looked this up. This is what I looked up. They shot 29.8 % on threes in Embiid's minutes last year.

47:22That's unthinkably bad and should be a case for some encouraging. How can anyone bet the over on this team right now? Embiid, 11 years, 452 games house, 31 years old, never made the Eastern Conference Finals, won five playoff series total. I think it's better to go to the gas station and get a scratch ticket than to bet on this team going over. I wouldn't bet anything on this team. I wouldn't bet any. It's a complete stay away over, under, anything. But we have to make a non-bet I'm picking under. But it's a complete stay away for me. I would go to the Wawa, the Philadelphia Wawa, and grab a nice scratcher.

48:02I would get$100 worth of scratches and try and... That's not a Philadelphia accent. I can't do Philly. I will say Embiid being in better shape this year I think is encouraging. he's listed day to day right now so is Paul George that part's not encouraging day to day hard under for all of us I'm not locking it it's not hard it's not a lock I just had a hard under who the hell knows what's going to happen I thought about locking it it's a scratch ticket

48:33the Embiid thing's too bad I know we've been critical on him on all the pods but it just was more fun when he was really good it was fun to have a guy like that in the league that on any night might drop 60 on a Tuesday night on league pass. And I know the era is kind of over now, but it's hard to believe. Well, let's press the legacy button. If he plays 60 games. No, he needs 65 to qualify. He's not going to play 60 games. I don't think so either. 65 is impossible. They'd have to do the AC Green come out for a minute back to back. So you're already subtracting whatever. Bring him out for a minute and then sit him down AC Green style.

49:07He's not going to be eligible for any of the awards. That's the reason. The only reason I mentioned 65. But if he plays 58 games, 55 games, and this team gets through the East with 44 wins or whatever, and then he and Paul George are both healthy, and Jared McCain and Maxie are healthy, and Edgecombe is a revelation, and they arrive at the playoffs, and they win the first two rounds of the playoffs because they get to play depleted Milwaukee or depleted Indiana, something like that. to Toronto who's made the push-up and they're into the Eastern Conference Finals. Is there something we're going to say nice things about Joel Embiid?

49:50Of course. Eastern Conference Finals. That all sounds great. They've literally never been to the Eastern Conference Finals in Joel Embiid's career. It's why I said. It's why I'm saying. I think their ceiling is we get to the end of the season and they're like a nobody-wants-to-play-us team in the first round of the playoffs. I can't. Anything beyond that, my soul is too injured to even imagine at this point. Completely understand. When your ceiling is, hopefully we can become, and nobody wants to play us, nine seed, I'm going under. It's just the repetitive knee injuries are scary for the best player on the team.

50:23I'm just too old now, and so are you, House, with basketball. We've just seen too many seasons. We know how this goes with the injury guys. It never ends well. Obviously an under. Celtics, over 42 and a half. Division 8-1. Conference 11-1 Title 33-1 Playoffs minus 225 They turned Drew Holiday Into Anthony Simons They turned Porzingis Into Luka Garza and Josh Minot And Chris Boucher They lost Al Horford They lost Luke Cornett They turned Jason Tatum For at least four months into Hugo Gonzalez they have a$22.5 million trade exception in their own 2026 first. They're in the first apron, $12 million over the luxury tax line.

51:18And for a while, we thought this would be a tank season because they have their own pick. And then Jason Tatum kept doing Instagram videos of how good he was looking, and now he's dunking in the practice center and trying to make history with the fastest Achilles comeback. and then now openly saying, I am coming back. I'm going to be on the team this year and I've told the Celtics that. 42 and a half, Zach. What do you got? Under. Okay. Make the case. I just think they lost so much. Their front court is just a morass of completely unproven guys. And I understand the stuff I said about serious dudes with Indiana.

52:04These are serious dudes and a serious coach that are used to winning, that know what it takes to win, that know how far you can get in the NBA by just playing hard and playing right every single night. I get all that. They just lost so much that like if Derek White misses 15 games, it's just that they have no margin for White or Brown missing any time this season. And you combine that with all the incentives that are pointing to like, are they going to try to duck the tax? Is this going to be, if we get to the 40 game mark and we're not doing well, is, does this transition into the tank gap year that, you know, people sort of started to, I just think there's too much.

52:45They lost too much and there's too much tugging. I'm going under. I'm sorry. Who are you apologizing to? You. What do you mean? I'm fine. You've got Tatum coming back on Christmas. I mean, honestly, I hope he doesn't. I hope he comes back when he's 120 % ready to come back. I hope he's like cleared to play and then two more months pass before he plays. House? Under. 42 and 40 for the Boston Celtics. That is under 42 and a half. It is. I honestly would have bet the over if it stayed at 41 and a half because 42 and 40 is over. It's so funny you said that because I was leaning. That's a little bit of a cop out.

53:26No, they're exactly a 500 team. Like the DNA that you just described, is of a winning team. And the design of this team is going to be fascinating. They're going to take a minimum of 60 threes a game. Jalen Brown said he's on a track team, not a basketball team. That's going to be fun to watch. I'm going to enjoy watching it. They're not going to get any offensive rebounds, so they better make the threes. They better be a lot of made threes. But against the East, that's a 500 team with the players they have. So I'm betting on them being a 500 team. That's under. Come on. Come on. Go over? You got to go over.

54:02it was so much more enticing than me at 41 and a half 42 and 40 seemed reasonable yeah one win 43 and 39 is way less enticing to lose less than 40 games you just made the case for the under and it's a good case so here's the thing I think it's 50-50 I think it's straight it's not like our Philly argument where I'm like there's two outcomes the one is that the system they play with and all the threes they shoot with and the Missoula being an alpha all that stuff that it just translates better the regular season than people think and they know how to play with each other there's real familiarity real DNA the other thing is what Zach said where if like one guy goes down for four weeks with a sprained ankle the entire team falls apart or the balance is way off I'm gonna go over anyway Yes!

55:02Yeah. Good. I think they're going to be pretty good. I think they'll be fine. All the guys that they got, all the weird signings they have, all these bigs, they're all like energy guys who play hard. On paper, the rebounding is going to be a disaster. Disaster. Not on paper on the basketball court. Everyone's going to try. I think Jalen is going to kind of secretly enjoy this whole. I agree with you. Alpha Jalen. We still have me. I'm sorry. I thought I was still one of the best 20 players in the league. Why aren't we a playoff team? I like it. And I really like the guards. I think the guards are going to be a problem in crunch time.

55:40Pritchard, Simons, White, all together with Jalen and one big, and they just go super small Indiana style. And I think teams are going to be like, what is this? Look, I don't feel super confident about the under. Like, the guards are really good. I just think the team is super thin in proven NBA players. Couldn't agree more. Thin is just bad for regular season to be. I really like Simons on this team. I think he's a potential... The rehabilitation of Anthony Simons. ...closes games like they're running plays for him in certain matchups kind of guy. I think there's games where he's just going to have like 35 points.

56:15They're going to be running up and down there and be like, just fucking shoot three. For the Nets or for the Celtics? Well, that's the question. The question with this over-under is will Simons be in the team in February? There's different ways they can cut the tax bill They can get under it. They can flip a couple minimums here and there. There's different ways. But if Tatum's playing the last 30 games. I'm sorry, what? If Tatum's playing the last 30 games, hypothetically. So he comes back. Last 30 is February. Yeah. Who plays more games this year, Jason Tatum or Joel Embiid? Come on. Answer the question.

56:47Wow, that's a great one. That's a great one. Let's get FanDuel to write a prop for that. It's got to be Embiid. Come on. FanBiid. What's the over-under for Embiid games? I don't know. I just ask who's playing more. Embiid's a safer bet. Embiid would be favored in that matchup. I would have bet it. I can't believe you're thinking about this. I just don't. I mean. I love everything about the Celtics discussion. I'm still going under. Me too. We didn't talk about Missoula enough. So I'm just going to mention this one other piece. I don't think that dude's built to tank. I think he's an absolute maniac.

57:20And you talk about like what the Celtics used to have with KG way back when, where it was just like every practice, every game, just like crazy, crazy, crazy. I think he's like the KG for this team. Just to be clear, this isn't a tank bet. The under isn't a tank bet. The under is that Derek White misses 15 games. It's going to be right in that low 40s. The under is like, wait, how many minutes did Baylor Shireman play last night? He looks great. Like he could be very good. He's just young and unproven. Proven. Property available on Shireman Island. No, but Josh Minot Island, I did put a little something down.

58:03Toronto Raptors, 39 and a half. they added Mamu They had a Murray Boyles. They lost Boucher. They have one of the weirdest roster slash salary cap situations. I think they have like a top 10 expensive roster. They're over the tax. They're in their first apron. Over the tax. I don't understand the team. And the over is like right around where I would have had it. There's actually a little action plus 104 on the over for 39 and a half if you want to do that. Zach's always a complimentary of the Raptors. You're kind of in the bag for them a little bit. It's a great line, 39 and a half. Yeah. What do you have?

58:47Over. Over by default. The two sweetest words in the English language, default. I just think they have too much talent. I understand all the questions about how weird the fit is. The bench is unproven. Are any of these shooting guards going to pop? Does Murray Boyles give us anything? Blah, blah, blah. They just missed so many games due to injury last year. and I just think there's I can get to 42 wins with this roster if quickly can give me 65-70 if ever all the core guys give me some sort of minimum threshold of games I can get to 42 wins and the organization top down has to win they're like this is a front office that is a holdover front office new controlling owner under super amounts of pressure to see yeah this model works this team we built works I'm going over So for them to hit this house, they were 30 and 52 last year.

59:40They have to be 10 wins better. I mean, they weren't even trying for two months. They actively took wins off the table in that stretch. They were ahead of teams considerably in the second half and just walked themselves back to losses. It was appalling if you were a Toronto fan rooting for wins. Fine if you were betting on second half, the other teams to beat them in the second half. This is a lock over for me. This is a lock. For all the reasons Zach just mentioned, plus, I mean, look, five of their top six players last year missed a combined 143 games. They had bottom three injury luck in the league.

1:00:27I like the coach. I think the coach is a real dude. I said this to you and you laughed. I think they have in their own heads the idea of being a poor man's Oklahoma City, which is to get out in transition to force turnovers, to force teams to miss threes and get moving. And they have the guys that can convert. Now, this is why I asked Zach about the plant situation in Toronto. They have extended Brandon Ingram. They didn't just sign that homeboy and say, please show up and give us a good year. They said to that man, we want you here. And this is a lot of investment in Mr. Ingram. I'm willing to make it.

1:01:15But look, he has to show us this year that he wants to play competitive basketball because it's a team that's built for a decent showing in a weekend East. So I was leaning under for a while with them. And my issue was that they spent all this money and capital to basically lock down a 43-win ceiling roster, which I just didn't fundamentally understand. I don't want to be in the area they are with this really no chance to improve it. It's expensive, and you don't really have a chance to maybe do anything. But with that mindset, 39 and a half, they should be over that because they've spent all this money to lock in a 43 and 39 team.

1:02:01So maybe that's what they're going to be. I don't see a scenario where this team's terrible, especially in the East. They'll score points. I don't know if they'll make sense as we're watching them. And there's a Scotty Barnes. Is there something else there? I don't personally think there is. Some people like him more than I think I do. His shooting really regressed last year across the board. He was dealing with some pretty bad ankles, playing through some pretty bad ankle stuff for a lot of last year. I'm betting on a Scotty Barnes bounce back. Ingram piece. So, and if you're going the other way, like Ingram was available for a year and nobody wanted him.

1:02:38That was weird, right? He left that Team USA thing basically bagged out near the end, had an injury or whatever, but he wasn't going to play. and so you're building around him and Barnes two guys that I don't know if I trust to lead anything I do like some of their younger guys a little bit as at least rotation guys but I think they're right somewhere between 40 and 43 you're going over? We're all going over on the Raptors? I didn't want to but I think there's no other outcome I don't feel great about it I locked it Brooklyn Nets over under 19 and a half I'm going under I'll just tell you guys now they're gonna be awful this team wow i mean wow we can we can keep it quick if you want i'm also going on we're all going under the only thing to talk about is how good that coach is and i'm super impressed he's going he's another one like will hardy to me that like he he deserves the shot once they get the talent to stay and and you know coach some some some legit yeah but they did front office jordy proofed the roster this year i mean like they did the only argument for the over is three of their starters are cam thomas michael porter jr and nick claxton that's like those are hold on let me tell my grandkids i said i said the only argument for an over on a line of 19 and a half wins you don't have to tell your grandkids about it um those are like representative nba starter level players now and camp and one of them cam thomas can handle the ball and run some of the offense.

1:04:11I just think, A, they're all going to be trade candidates. And B, if you hand an NBA team to rookie guards and they have 1 ,000 of them, the results are generally disastrous. I said this in June. The draft picks they made are all guys who need the ball. Even that Danny Wolf, he needs the ball. They drafted all these dudes who need the ball. And then they're going to all throw them out in the court together. I really liked the draft last year. I didn't like their draft. The offense is going to be a mess. This team's going to be awful. This is a... All right, we all went under. Trying to give your tickets away.

1:04:52It's a bummer that it ticked down from 20.5 to 19.5. Would any net play on OKC?

1:05:01That's a mean question. I think Nick Claxton. I agree. Claxton can get minutes. Who's he playing over? Jalen Williams? No, he's going to get all the homegrown missed game minutes. Yeah, there's missed game minutes there to be had. Would any net play in the Nuggets? Michael Porter Jr. knows the system. Back up. When does Brooklyn flip the tank switch? It's flipped. They already flipped. The season starts on October the 22nd. They'll let Jordy try to win games for a month. I don't think so. Settle down. They are praying someone gets desperate enough to take the Michael Porter Jr. contract off their hands, I'm sure.

1:05:35can I give you before we go to a break the Brooklyn Nets 15 years in Brooklyn recap it's a really it's a winding tale seven coaches and two playoff series wins they went for it tanked went for it tanked they peaked for three weeks in 2021 with Zach's most theoretical great team of all time the greatest theoretical team of all time they built the Tatum Brown dynasty in Boston they have some future picks and they're the third most popular professional basketball team in New York. You left out so much stuff. I was just giving you the highlights. What else do you want to put in there? Well, there's a lot.

1:06:15There's a plague. There's a plague on the world that affected their team more than other people. There's a mascot that they created and then murdered because everybody hated it so much, the Brooklyn Knight, RIP. There's good pizza. It's been a wild, wild. I was thinking in my head, how many of the seven coaches could we name in 30 seconds? let's see if this is a good one for house because he's a little groggy now because he's in a coffee in five hours how many Nets coaches can you name from the 15 years

1:06:49four maybe would you start naming them Steve Nash Jordy Fernandez

1:06:59oh from Jack Vaughn he coached one of them's easy from the last five years he's now coaching another NBA team I don't know Kenny Atkinson oh yeah of course Kenny's good Avery Johnson Lionel Hollins would not have gotten either one of them Jason Kidd is that it? I think that's it wow good job by us it's crazy there's isn't Tony Brown isn't there like an interim Tony there's some interims I don't count the interims they they have their own first John Mark's still there we've talked about them too long Sean Mark's still there. They can swap there first in Houston, 2027, but it's Houston's choice, which is not good for them.

1:07:42Houston can swap first. Not good for them. Anyway, we'll take one more break. We'll do the Southeast. The most fun of all the divisions. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Ads. The best B2B marketing gets wasted on the wrong people. So when you want to reach the right professionals, use LinkedIn Ads. LinkedIn has grown to a network of over 1 billion professionals, including 130 million decision makers. And that's where it stands apart from the other ad buys. You can target your buyers by job title, industry, company role, seniority skills, company revenue. So you can stop wasting budget on the wrong audience.

1:08:14That's why LinkedIn ads generates the highest B2B return and ad spend on all online ad networks. Seriously, all of them. Spend$250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a free$250 credit for the next one. Just go to linkedin.com slash Simmons bill. terms and conditions apply. As you can tell from this over-unders pod, I love betting NBA futures. One of my favorite things. Gives you a little stake, not just in your team, but you can pick five, six, seven other teams. Just kind of monitor their progress over the six-month season. I like doing finals winners. I like doing pairings for the finals.

1:08:53I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote, but the playoff stuff is really fun. playing is kind of a fun one. Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, will Wemby have a quadruple-double this year? You can bet on that on Fando. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Over-Under podcast. And then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season. That will be Friday, 10-14.

1:09:28on Fandle. Be ready. Southeast Orlando Magic, over 15.5, minus 185 for the division, 6-1 for the conference, plus 450 for the one seed. They lost Cole Anthony, KCP, and finally, thankfully, Gary Harris. They added Desmond Bain. They added Tyce Jones. They added Jace Richardson, who a lot of the stealth draft nerds really like and think might actually play for them. Mo Wagner's going to come back at some point. Pretty deep team. Desmond Baines, the big, the big, the big ad. So they won 34 in 2023, 47 in 24. Last year, regressed to 21. And the thinking, the common thinking with this team, with the over-under being 50 and a half, is that this will be a top three team in the East.

1:10:15Do you agree, Zach Lowe? This is a huge number. When I first saw this number at 50 and a half, starting with a five, I was like, whoa. That's, I was prepared to like hammer the over on the early end of Magic because I thought it was going to be like 47.5, 46.5. 50.5 for a team that hasn't been a top 20 offense in a gazillion years. Team that can't shoot straight. Yeah, they got Desmond Bain, blah, blah, blah. And you know what? I'm hammering you over. Over, over, over. Give me all the action. I just think this team's defense is a legit top three to five defense. Every night they play super hard.

1:10:49Paolo, Leap, Franz, Leap, Suggs can't be any less healthy than he was last year. Bain huge addition Tyus Jones huge addition Young guys I like Da Silva even Like Anthony Black mini leap I just think this team is going to be a regular season Wins machine Over 50 and a half for a team that hasn't won This many games in a long time They could do that They did start last year 17 and 9 47 wins two years ago Yeah I just don't think they're going to I mean we're already in Jalen Suggs What's the timeline for him I don't think he's far away. From what I've heard, he's not far away. He's not far away. Okay.

1:11:28Jalen Sugg's timeline injury. Go, keep talking to us. I'm just looking this up. The real thing to me is I still… Left knee, trochlea, cartilage tear. Yeah. Well, we knew about that. I'm just… Yeah, you're getting the timeline. Expected, maybe, sort of, removed. The secret sauce, and I was kind of a prick about it last year. I just need Franz Wagner to be a consistent scorer in this basketball league you don't want him to shoot like I need him to to to like he had one season of good three-point shooting I'm all in on Franz you have to be that's the only way to get to the over here Zach's all in on Franz he's a you know what he is all in all right the hitch is what it is it's it appears it disappears it reappears first of all unlike most guys with jump shooting whatever he had he keeps shooting at least and he's just a basketball player he knows how to play both things I want you to go under I already wrote it down I'm under yeah we're both under Orlando Magic fans just remember who had your back at 50 and a freaking half me that's a high number it's a high number you know what I just think 51-31 is a really good record for a team that is pretty young, that's adding a big Bane piece, that does know when Suggs is coming back, that has this Franz.

1:12:55I never know what I'm getting from him month to month. Let me see. Go ahead. I don't 100 % love the coach. Oh, there we go. That's the part of it. Make your Jamal Mosley. You know what else I don't like, Zach Lowe? Yeah, what don't you like? Lots of expectations for a team that hasn't done jack shit. it's a good over under recipe for you know we fell for it last year with them and they had the year from hell but I just think like if this team goes 49 and 33 that's a great season for them so is 50 and 32 another great season 48-34 congrats over it's an under it's an over for me we got to see one time people were begging for it last year let's see a little offensive ingenuity a little innovation out of Orlando.

1:13:39It can't just, we can't just continue to tolerate the missed shots. You asked earlier what happened to KCP. What's the answer? I don't know. Right. I don't know. None of us have an explanation. The bench wings make me a little bit nervous. Like I'm counting on De Silva to give me something. I might be counting on Jace Richardson to give me something. I'm definitely counting on Anthony Black to give me more. That makes me a little nervous. Jonathan Isaac, I don't know how to pencil him in. They just have a lot of guys and you're like, what am I getting from this guy? What am I getting from this guy?

1:14:07I think Bain, is a transformational stylistic player. I think he will unlock a lot of different things they can do offensively. I don't think he's like a top 30 player in the NBA, but he's not far from that. But I think for them, he's a game changer. I respect the culture. I respect the effort. I'm going over. You cannot talk me out of it. I like being on an over island. Over island is the most fun place to be on this podcast. is um they have i did my top 100 exercise for the ringer and they had five guys in the list atlanta 47 and a half another team with a ton of expectations so i chose to go slightly under with orlando and slightly over with atlanta because it's a combo deal yeah i i felt like you had to choose and you couldn't go over for both i love it they're 40 42 last year and i just like everything they did.

1:15:05Alexander Walker, Porzingis, Kennard, Jalen Johnson back. Missed what? He missed the last two thirds of the season. I think he has a chance to be an all-star. Kongwu, they finally gave him the car keys, got rid of Capella and Trey Young contract here. But I just like the team. I think this is a really fun regular season, get some wins, high 40s range. So the over-under, I wish it was one lower. I wish it was 46 and a half, but I still have to go over. What do you have, House? I'm in the same boat because I thought about it the same way, which is to say, if I'm going to go under on Orlando, then I'm going to go over on Atlanta.

1:15:43And this number stayed right at that 47 and a half. There was 46 early. And I think in the summer, it was like 45. So there was some great numbers. Oh, man, remember the draft? Yeah. I mean, they were like 60 to 1 when they, there was some great future bets with them. Yes. And now it's at the right number. It's settled at exactly 47 and a half, which I think is a super fair number. This is what you're gambling on if you take the over. You're gambling on the infectious enthusiasm of Alexander Walker and Dyson together to create a defensive. With Jalen Johnson. Yes. So there's your defense. Because this team didn't play no defense.

1:16:21This is a no defense situation out on the perimeter. They gave up threes to everybody and their sister last year. This team better come out and play some defense on the goddamn perimeter. This is also a bet on Quinn Snyder. And, you know, we made this bet before. We lost on Atlanta. Did we win or lose last year? We won in Atlanta last year. Okay, all right. One other thing on this before we get to Zach, who's ready to zag. He is. He's going to murder us. It's a stealth move team. They have really good picks. They have that Pelicans 26 first on their own. They have a$13 million trade exception.

1:16:56Maybe Risha Shea could be on the right table and the right thing. maybe Jalen Johnson if you want to start talking and have a really honest conversation. I was going to say they're the stealthy honest team because they own the rights to Milwaukee's picks too. So it's an over for me and house. What do you have? You know, I don't have to choose between Orlando and Atlanta. I went under on Indiana. I went under on Boston. I went under on Detroit. I'm going emphatically over on the Atlanta Hawks. There's no zag. Yeah. If there's a zag, it's that. I don't have any of this. Oh, if it was 46 and a half, I'd feel a lot better.

1:17:33That's chicken shit stuff. I'm going over. No thought. The Hawks are going over 47 and a half, and the Magic are going over 50 and a half. Over. They have some of my favorite players. I've always wanted Luke Kennard to be on one good team. I always felt like on the right situation, he could be a really good rotation guy. I thought it might be Memphis. He had a Memphis moment, but it's never been just for a year. I always wanted him to go to Denver. I thought he would have been an awesome Nuggets bench guy. Obviously, Porzingis. I got to watch that and so did Howe's firsthand. When he plays, he's genuinely impactful.

1:18:06So even if you pencil him in for 50 games, the team's going to be fucking awesome in the 50 games. They're going to be able to go Porzingis with the three perimeter guys and Trey at crunch time. And I think they're going to be really hard to guard. We used to say he should be better this year. He was up and down. It's a good situation for him. But their core guys are 23, 22, and 20. The case for the under is every time we're all ready to trust the Hawks as an NBA collective, they kick us in the nuts. You are right. Shooting is a little shaky. Their bench after Kennard, Alexander Walker, and Okongwu, so now we're into eight guys, their bench after that makes me very nervous.

1:18:46They're going to need Newell to play. Yeah. They're going to need to make a trade, which they have the pieces. They have the exception. Things to do. You cannot, and I cannot temper my enthusiasm. I'm going over. So over under Atlanta All-Stars, I'm going to give you the definites. Giannis, Cade, Paolo, Brunson, Mitchell, and Mobley. I think those are the six definite All-Stars. Jalen Brown didn't make the list? Probables, Jalen Brown, Bam, and Towns. I think we can comfortably say those are nine All-Stars barring an injury. There's three spots left. Could the Hawks have two All-Stars? so that would have to be Trey and then I think Jalen Johnson oh okay not Dyson Davis I would bet against it because we still have to account for all the Sixers guys whoever among them survives I forgot about the Walking Dead did you say Bancaro?

1:19:36you said Bancaro right? I said Pango so there could be a Bane in there you know what? it's very possible they could have two I thought Jalen Johnson I thought that was the most underrated injury last year Scotty Barnes maybe if we believe in Toronto. But I thought that was the most underrated injury last year because he was really becoming a guy, like a capital G guy, and then he was gone, and then nobody talked about him again. If Embiid plays half the games and has a great – For voting? And has good numbers, the coaches will pick him because he's got that kind of stature. Yeah. And then Maxie is still there.

1:20:12If you could pick any – I'm going to bet against two Hawks All-Stars. If you could pick any East team to have three All-Stars, which one would you pick? It has to be Cleveland, right? Well, yeah. New York. I'd say still Cleveland. Mitchell, Garland, Mobley feels like the most likely trio. Orlando? Not for me, dog.

1:20:33Atlanta, with the two picks and the trade exception, to me, there's a bench guy they don't have yet that they're going to have. And it'll be like worst case scenario, George Nang. Maybe they can't even trade for him because they already had him. But somebody of that ilk, somebody who's like a very impactful eighth man. Miami Heat, 38 and a half. They added Norm Powell and Fontecchio and Achua and Yaka Shunas, my favorite post-lottery rookie. Wow, I didn't know he had that status. Oh, yeah. I was so mad when they got him. It was classic Miami Heat. You could draft anybody and you'd be mad that you got him.

1:21:08No, that one made me mad because it was like he just fell five spots lower than he should have. It was stupid. I was vindicated in the GM survey. Everyone said that was like the steel pick. They lost Robinson. They lost Highsmith, who they gave away. Remember I said that. They lost Kyle Anderson. They have their own 2026 first. Most important, Tyler Hero, ankle surgery. He's out. They're saying like maybe end of December to me, that means like all-star break. They always lie about that shit. Could be 35-40 missed games. Does that make Miami a stealth tank candidate for you, Zach Love?

1:21:48This is my blind faith pick. He culture? You and Adonis Haslam, the only two left in he culture, Alan? Because the tank scenario is there. Yep. The hero injury timetable is unclear. I don't think it's going to be as bad as you said, but I don't know. I don't know. I just always add three to four weeks to any timetable. They were 37 and 45 last year. Yep. and their best perimeter ball handler is injured. Yes, they introduced another one, and Norm Powell, not a playmaker like Hero. The playmaking quotient's getting pretty low. By the way, Norm Powell is more like a heat check. Finisher, straight line finisher, shoot some threes.

1:22:25Just like gets hot for five minutes. He's not like, let's run a week of plays for Norm Powell. That was the idea with Terry Rozier. I don't know what in the hell is going on there. What can possibly be expected out of him? But this is my blind faith pick. I'm allowing myself the leeway of like, I just trust the infrastructure. I think some of the young players, like people are already out on Hakez. I think Hakez bounces back. I like Jovic. I like Ware. See what Jakuchunis gives him. Jovic is just a blind, anybody with an itch, you're in. I like Jovic. I think he stays healthy. He's an itch, but he's also going to be good.

1:23:06There's literally no evidence of that. But he shot, he shot. You know what? we're not going to argue about Nikola Jovich on this podcast. I'm going over on the heat. It's my blind faith pick. Hardest working, hardest playing, toughest, whatever you want to write on the court. They get points. They're bringing back the Miami Vice jerseys. That's like five wins. I'm over. I was excited for that. It's not. I bet you guys are both going to go under. Oh, wow. 100 % going under. Under's the smart pick. I'm going over. I'm a hard under. I am over. Oh, my God. I am over. The reason is I don't know how I thought it did.

1:23:40You're locking it in. You might lock it in. Not locking it in. I wouldn't lock in against Heat Culture. This team, in each of 17 seasons, has topped 36 wins. Every season. So we're looking. They won 37 games last year in what was the most disastrous. Jamie Butler tried to sabotage the basketball team. He effectively sabotaged the basketball team. He did it. He fucked them up so bad. And they won 37 games. And they were the worst crunch time team imaginable. They were so bad in close games. Do you recall how many times I went on the Ringer Gambling Show and told people to live bet the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter?

1:24:21Live bet whoever's playing them. It doesn't matter how much they're up by. They gave up double-digit leads in the fourth quarter at an unprecedented rate last year. And it was because they didn't have an offensive solution. Tyler Hero just took the ball the last four and a half minutes of every single game. and they lost a bunch of those, and we made a bunch of money out there. This is the question for me. Let's say Tyler Harrell was starting this season and playing healthy. 100%. He's good. He's playing 82 games. What would you think their record would be? Well, the line was not much different than this before his injury, right?

1:24:55Yeah, it was like below 40. I think they're a 45-win team. I think they're closer to the Pistons-Bucks tier of the East than they are to where they are. Yeah, I think they're... I have them in the Pacers-Celtics cluster of there's DNA here, but I'm not sure I trust what's going on. But not having Hero for... He was everything they did at crunch time. What are they going to do at crunch time now? They're going to run plays for a game. All they did last year was lose. Yeah, win games. Can't get any worse. Just lose worse. But here's the thing. If you start out the first two months and they start out 10 and 16 or 10 and 17...

1:25:30That's what worries me, the pick incentive. At that point, you're like, fuck it. Yeah, that's right. Oh, you want Andrew Wiggins? You're willing to give us a first. Have we said enough about Khalil Ware yet? Look, there's a reason I called this my blind faith pick. I'm just giving Miami the over. I'm just doing it out of respect. Moving on to Charlotte. I'm going under. Over, over, under. Charlotte Hornets, 26 and a half is the over, under. They lost Yuseb Nurkic. You're leading with Nurkic. That's a loss. Mark Williams, Seth Curry, and Akoji. They added Colin Sexton, Dean Witte, one of the Plumleys, Connaughton, Knipple, McNeely, and Kalkbrenner, who's getting a lot of buzz.

1:26:15A lot of Kalkbrenner buzz. Like a lot. He better. Like a lot of buzz. He'll be playing a lot of minutes. A lot of buzz. He's starting for them. He better. They just have way more talent than they did last year when you include the part that Brandon Miller's actually going to play basketball and be healthy. That lamella ball is going to try to be healthy and is at a fork in the road. What the hell are you season? Knipple is worth minimum 10 to 12 wins for you. Who? Knipple. We're at the point where your lawyers told you it's now okay to start talking about Knipple. I just think he's going to be immediately impactful.

1:26:50Just glue guy. He's going to rebound. This team, even though they have a center, I think they're going to rebound. They have guys who are fill the box score guys. Bridges had a pretty good year statistically last year. But I think we have to set a deadline. Before we do our picks, we have to set a deadline for can we find out if LaMelo is a superstar or not? What year is that going to be? It could be this year. It could be next year. You could go two years from now. Just let's set a deadline for it because I don't want to talk about it anymore. A superstar? Superstar.

1:27:26I'd give that another couple of years. I'd settle this year for like All-Star. Okay. Agree. Two more years. Agree. Two more years. Yeah. Can't have a referendum on that now. Because he's one of the most popular players in the league. Yeah, but popular. But the league needs him to be good. Like they need good stuff to happen with them and this team. I like the coach. Yeah. I think the front office and the ownership, everything they've done are things I would do if I ran a team and I was trying to rebuild and just be like, all right, I'll take that asset. I'll grab that. Grant Williams might be back at some point.

1:27:56Congrats. I can't defend the saloon pick, whatever his name is, because we didn't say a lot. Tijon Salon. Salon. Doesn't look great as of today. Guys, it's an over for me. I think they're going to be a competitive bad team. I think they're in the high 20s. I think they'll win some games and kind of hang around. And I don't think the East is good. I am also an over. I think... Okay. there are two reasons I don't feel great about it. Number one, I, does ownership actually want to win games this year? Or do they want one more bite at the apple, particularly since the, what they get out of salon is going to be a question mark.

1:28:39Like that might've been one bite and it may not yield fruit. We'll see. Number two, I just don't know how the hell Charles Lee is going to make this defense anything better than abysmal, like a miles bridges, plus whatever non entities they have at center defense is just drawing dead from the beginning. But I think offensively, they could be all right. And just like, I think Lomelo's a good offense player. The numbers suggest their offense was okay with him last year. Miller was a zero last year because of health he's going to play. And this could be with the lack of teams in the West that are outright tanking other than Utah.

1:29:18And combined with the fact that we have now seen a decent amount of years with these new lottery odds where losing at a high level does not reward you the way that it used to. huge point i think this team could win 28 games and still be like the fifth or sixth worst record in the nba and be absolutely fine with that i am hammering the over i might i might lock the charlotte hornet's over amazing which is insane yeah every year i was looking it up for the last few years because i thought this is one of the most interesting ones we have like five or six teams that are like 26 wins and under right so the worst six are usually 25 wins or below and the question with this bet would be are they going to be one of the worst six teams and when you think they're in the east there's easy wins to be had and there's players they have that are like Brandon Miller wants to prove that he's a good player he's got an extension stuff coming up Lamella wants to prove that you can build a franchise around him and then Knipple wants to prove he's a good player right away and Charles Lee wants to prove he's a decent there's a lot of proving stuff with this team I think they'll be fun to watch I think I always look at these 4 o 'clock on the West Coast here and it's always Charlotte and Miami and Washington and Toronto.

1:30:30I mean, we just said before, the six worst teams of the last 10 years were all in the East. Those teams are always on at 4 o 'clock. Charlotte's probably the one I would gravitate to of all those teams. Because I think they're going to be fun to watch. I think they're going to play with the style. So we're all over. Yeah, we're all over because we're asking for eight more wins. and I think the Brandon Miller thing is most compelling to me. I think he can play. I think he can be a two-way guy too. And the contract incentive, it's that plus Charles Lee. There's a lot of East teams, a lot of teams periods, a lot of these teams that we're talking about where the over-under is around 40.

1:31:12You're going into Charlotte on a back-to-back. It's like a pain-in-the-ass game to play. Man, they're going to run and dunk all over me. Dangerous Celtic game these last few years. Yep. Last one. Hey, we made it. Here we are again. We made it. The Washington Wizards. We did it. It's amazing. 20 and a half. They're 28 to one to make the playoffs house. If you want to put some down on that. No, thank you. They lost Brogdon, Poole, Smart, Bay, and Holmes. They added McCollum and Whitmore. And they drafted Trey Johnson and got Will Riley as well. They have a top eight protected first that goes to the Knicks.

1:31:51I don't think the Knicks should expect that one. I don't think they're going to be getting that one. So one house, one more worst four teams in the league season, and then you're good. That's what it feels like. Yeah. And they need to win 21 games to hit their over this season, which is three games more than last season. Just a tiny over for me. I like the over for, I'm going to be glass half full. Come on, be more enthusiastic. I want to hear the enthusiasm. Top five things you're looking forward to. I keep watching this team. They are a bottom three offensive team and a bottom three defensive team.

1:32:26I just like, where's the... Trey Johnson is already doing the thing that you want, which is he's the first in the gym. He's the last out. They have to tell him to go home. All of that kind of... That's infectious. And that's what you want with a young scorer. He, for sure, rookie of the year odds. Like, you know... The Cooper flag injury odds? Well, because he... And he's going to play as many minutes as his body can tolerate. He's going to put up as many shots as the team is willing to tolerate. There is no question that he is going to have the combination of volume shooting and opportunity. That's two-thirds of the...

1:33:04Third best odds, 10-1. Yeah, so that's a play for me for sure. Trey Johnson Rookie of the Year is a hard play and a tiny bit over because team... Knipple, 22-1. Tiny bit of progress. Why not? Why not? Tidy over for me for Washington. What's Dylan Harper? I think he's 13-1. Pretty good odds. What do you got, Zach? I'm going under on the Wizards. It's fine. I just... Part of this assumes that McCollum and Middleton are going to be traded and or rested enough to not impact the offense. Fair. And I just think, other than that, you are handing the basketball to a lot of inexperienced guys who are going to be facing adult experience defenses and that tends to go badly.

1:33:55As I said on Zach Lowshaw earlier this week, I'm excited about a lot of young players on this team. I just think in this particular season, I'm actually kind of surprised the line jumped from 19.5 to 20.5. I'm not sure why it did. So I'm going under on all three of Brooklyn, Utah, and Washington, which seems based on gambling history, a very stupid thing to do. No. I'm also making this one of my locks. Okay. Which I did last year too. It's fine. I just don't think Washington wants to be good. And by the way, I like the – they did a great job at asset collection. Yeah. We talk about asset collection.

1:34:27I think Charlotte's done a good job, Washington. But this roster makes no sense if you actually put all these dudes together on a basketball court. It's a bunch of wings. Nobody on the roster is a glue guy. Even like McCollum, their only glue guy is Middleton. and Middleton's, you know, at the tail end of his career. Bilal Kulabali. Who's a terrible offensive player. I mean, he's really bad. Yeah. Like, I know he's exciting and he'll have a play every once in a while, but he's a bad offensive player. I'm not defending him. Marvin Bagley III? I would argue he's got... Yeah, Marvin Bagley III. I would argue Kulabali.

1:35:05Who was that guy, Poku, on OKC that was a great tanking? Don't pretend like you forgot about Poku. Who was that guy, Poku? Poku. So many OKC wins. Alexander Pokashevsky. Remember Poku started playing a lot? And I wonder with Koulibaly, it'll be a lot of clear outs in March and April. Don't do that. Koulibaly, call on your number. I do like the assets, though, and I think there's going to be some fun. I've always wanted to see Cam Whitmore on the right team. Me too. No, you haven't. You've never won. I've liked Cam Whitmore the entire time he was in the Rockets. He never played. He's going to shoot a lot of shots.

1:35:39Fine with that. I think if your name's Cam, you just come out firing. That's what we've learned from the past month. So the McCollum trade will happen pretty soon. And then Middleton. That's a big salary to trade, man. Let's see. That's like what worries me a little bit about going under is that these guys just might lay around on this team for a while. Okay. And be like helpful in ways that I don't want them to be helpful if I'm betting an under. Okay. Let's go to the picks. Cavaliers, 56 and a half. We all went over. I'm going to lock that one at 56 and a half. Do my locks from the West carry over to my total lock total?

1:36:26No, you can do however many locks you want. Okay. What do you mean, do they carry over? Well, I was told I need a minimum of six locks. I don't know if that's per conference or total. Total. It carries over. I've got like five already. Detroit Pistons, 56 and a half. 46 and a half. 46 and a half. Under for all three of us. Yeah. Disappointing. Milwaukee Bucks, 42 and a half. Over. We already locked it down. Three locks. Triple lock. Triple lock. Indiana Pacers, 36 and a half. Over for me and house. Under for Zach. I really thought hard about locking that, but decided not to. Chicago Bulls, 32 and a half.

1:37:02We all went over on that. Knicks, 52 and a half. Over, over, over. House, lock, over. Locked the Knicks. Philadelphia 76ers 42 and a half under under and I'm going to lock my under just for fun dangerous is it dangerous though I wouldn't lock anything is it dangerous they could put the over under at 25 and a half and I wouldn't lock it I'm going to unlock it no lock Zach's right Just stay away from this team. Stay away. Stay away. By scratchers. 42 and a half. I went over. You guys went under. That was one of our big disagreements. Toronto Raptors, three overs, including a lock from Joe House.

1:37:51I'm going to lock the Raptors. I'm locking the Raptors. Look at this. Love to see it. Me and Zach go on the same page. You know what? Once I lock, the lock is locked. The lock is locked. You're not going to unlock it. Nets under 19 and a half. Are we all under? Yes. Yes. Well, not only am I under. this is a hardcore lock with some Vini's pizzas thrown in lock for me at under 19 and a half I don't see any scenario where this team wins 20 games I honestly can't they won 26 games last year they're going to be so bad they're going to be like watching when you go like when your son started playing basketball and you're just watching these crazy 11 year old teams of people just running around, not knowing who should have the ball.

1:38:39All right. There should be – does the Reddit Bill Simmons page, like your comparisons need to be tracked? Aiton has already been compared to multiple pieces of furniture. The Nets were compared to an 11 and under basketball team. I would love like how many metaphors in this podcast. It's wonderful stuff. I feel like I've been late. I feel like I could have dialed it up. I mean, I compared the Kings to the Hindenburg. You did do that. Hawks, three overs. Oh, I want to do a lock so bad for them. Don't do it. I'm too scarred from previous. The Hawks. Yeah, it's just... Don't do it. It's the Hawks.

1:39:16Miami, under 38 and a half for me. Over for you guys. Yeah. Charlotte, 26 and a half. Over, over, over. Washington, 20 and a half. I locked that one down as an under. You went under. Yeah. House went over. So you were light on the East Coast locks. Uh, I, I'm going to lock something now. I'm locking Orlando over 50 and a half. Okay. I feel strongly about this. I like being on Orlando by myself on the over and I'm going to lock it. Okay. You're allowed. I'm going to get super behind that one. So playoff teams really quick before we go. Okay. If you just say in the top six, Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, do we all feel good about those four being four of the six playoff teams?

1:40:08Yep. Yes. Cleveland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta. Would you put Milwaukee in there as the fifth playoff team? I can tell you who my next two would be are Detroit and Milwaukee. Yeah, I have Detroit and Milwaukee in there also. I have Milwaukee and then Detroit. Okay, so fine.

1:40:26Playing Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto in some order. Boston, Indiana, Chicago, Toronto. I am kicking out Chicago. Okay. And I am putting in... Philly? The Philadelphia 76ers. Okay, that's fair. All right. Well, we just went for... What time did we start? A little before 10 o 'clock. That was a four-hour extravaganza. I'm hungry. Joe House, pleasure as always. Pleasure. Zach Lowe is hungry. We did it. We did it, Zach Lowe. Great work. Thanks to Chris. Amazing. For hanging out. Great job. For multiple hours with us. Thanks to Ronick as well. and Eduardo. And I'm going to be back with one more podcast.

1:41:06We'll do some football. I don't know if you're going to be on it. What? Well, maybe you'll be on it. We just went four and one, you son of a bitch. Oh, yeah, we did go. Yeah, all right, you will be on it. So I'll see you again on Thursday. Wow. On behalf of myself and Conk Nipple's family, we'll see you next time here on the BS Podcast.

1:41:30I don't have periods with him.

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