NBA Panic Rankings, NFL Draft Guesses, and a Michael Jackson Movie Review | With Todd McShay, Steve Muench, and Van Lathan

25:58Bill Simmons:Yeah. So we're using your set. I love it. Last time I talked to you, I wasn't that excited about the draft. And then you kind of - 45 minutes later, I had you - You fluffed me a little bit. Yeah, you got me a little excited about it. He's a great fluffer. Barely excited by the end. Now I'm way more excited.

26:14Todd McShay:It's, uh, there's never a bad draft, man. That's the thing. Like, even the - For entertainment value, there's never a bad draft. There's bad drafts where there's no players.

26:24Bill Simmons:right yeah but it's like thanksgiving thanksgiving is always going to be good because yeah at some

26:29Todd McShay:point there's going to be food to eat and it always gets hectic there's always family drama before thanksgiving it's the same thing here and then like i got lied to i think about the jets pick and that's okay i'm here for it you got lied to i think so i did see you did a little switch yeah yeah and by the way like the draft's not here we'll we'll see what happens but i get the strong sense that the jet's worth getting that out there. I always get nervous about, because I was the only one saying Arbel Reese, so, and then a couple other people a little bit, but I always get nervous when everyone all of a sudden on a Monday after a weekend are saying the same thing.

27:06Todd McShay:So the Jeremiah Love thing, I just, I worry about that at number three. But it looks like Bailey. They're doing a good job of being really quiet about it, even though there's really no reason to be quiet outside of hey everyone thinks we're taking bailey but who are they trying to fake out listen david bailey i i actually had to have this internal conversation with myself david bailey's been kind of what everyone in league circles has kind of assumed right for a while let's throw out there we might take arbel reese and see if someone's more interested in reese and get the you know because there's people talking about arizona we're going to move up whichever pass rusher doesn't go to go to we you know the pick is open at arizona number three why not why not us get the phone calls i have a feeling that that's what was going on the only

27:58Bill Simmons:thing i don't like about this theory is it's the jets yeah that involves foresight a plan understanding strategy like like chess moves moving around yeah and if if it's true what i'm

28:10Todd McShay:kind of surmising, then I think, I think Daryl Muji is, is doing a pretty good job of managing this thing.

28:18Bill Simmons:If there are two guys who play the same position, basically, and people are arguing about which one's better. I'm just, I always parachute in the draft every year, basically knowing nothing and trying to learn on the fly. Why wouldn't you take the guy who's two years younger? Is that just too obvious or am I not?

28:35Todd McShay:It's actually not. You would be, I don't think you'd be surprised. But it's surprising how much... Because Reese is two years younger. Emphasis is put into the age for a defensive prospect specifically.

28:48Bill Simmons:I don't get it. But if it was me, I would take the younger guy. You would. He's two years... It's like getting a car from 2024 versus 26 or something. But it's a five-year lease. Two years less than miles. It's a five-year lease. You're not going to keep it for the life of the car. You know what I mean? Yeah. If you like the car better and you get a better lease, then take the lease. But nobody can agree which one of these guys are better. Why wouldn't I just take the younger guy?

29:09Todd McShay:I would take Arvel Reese, but I've got to have a defensive coach. If I'm the general manager, I've got to have a defensive coach that can lay out what exactly is the plan to show me how it's going to work. Yeah. Because this guy's more talented. Okay. The talent isn't quite developed. He's a one-year starter at Ohio State.

29:26Bill Simmons:So that means higher talent, higher bus potential.

29:29Todd McShay:Yes. Okay. Yeah. Someone brought this up on X. I actually meant to run this by you before we even got on here, but we're talking about the jets again so if you have a plan for this kid that's great is

29:39Bill Simmons:erin glenn gonna be their head coach next year right or or in october or in october like exactly so then then the plan's out the window and if you're if you're muji are you thinking yourself i don't know who's gonna be the head coach next year i'm gonna take the the guy who's been playing

29:53Todd McShay:edge his whole life the information i got 10 days ago i think it's 10 days now it was it was the Sunday before this past Sunday was, what's your football sense if you want the sure thing and that Daryl Muji is a human risk aversion. I compared it yesterday. Along came Pauly, Ben Stiller, right? Just a human risk aversion corporation walking down the street. Everything's about risk. And apparently that's kind of his DNA and his makeup. I would argue the better player who the fallback is, I'm getting Devin Lloyd. that to me is less risk than drafting David Bailey. And maybe he's just a DPR, a designated pass rusher.

30:37Todd McShay:And he's not very good versus the run. So like, it's true. But this guy we know can rush the quarterback better than anyone in this draft. And yes, it's with speed. And yes, he's got to kind of get stronger and all that. But let's go with the guy that's proven as a pass rusher because that's the most important thing you can do in this league outside of being a quarterback.

30:58Bill Simmons:FanDuel has Reese minus 130, Bailey plus 115 on Tuesday afternoon as we record. Did that flip from yesterday? Yeah.

31:07Todd McShay:This morning I looked and it was like, it was still plus 160. And then I looked four hours ago and it was minus 110. So it is shifting rapidly. Yeah.

31:19Bill Simmons:Betting on the draft is like betting on roulette while doing cocaine. It's insane. The odds are just, oh, oh. It's just going crazy at all times. I never do draft bets. The only one that seems like it hits every year is the more offensive lineman than we thought. Seems like every year, it's like, no, it's going to be seven. No, actually, it's ten. Because we get in the draft and everybody's like, oh, fuck, we need a right tackle.

31:44Todd McShay:I would bet it's at eight and a half. I haven't looked, but I would bet it's at eight and a half. I would take for nine. There's going to be a second guard that sneaks in. Right, like Keelan Rutledge from Georgia Tech.

31:55Bill Simmons:Seven and a half. oh I take that see that seems like he fucking banged that one right pound it right now

32:00Todd McShay:it's gonna be at least nine take it right now I laugh whenever I see there's gonna be at least eight there's seven tackles and one guard I think nine but yeah you're right it's gonna be the Patriots could take somebody Iannaccio is still sitting there at 31 yeah absolutely yeah

32:14Bill Simmons:you putting that in right now no I'll do it after I have a bunch of questions tied to the draft but this is my favorite one what do the Giants do at number five because they also have number 10. Yeah. If the first four picks, Mendoza, Reese to the Jets, Arizona says, fuck it, and takes love. Yep. And then Salah and Tennessee go, fuck it, and they take Stiles. So it goes, Mendoza, Reese, love, Stiles. Now the Giants are on the clock. What happens? You think they would take Bailey anyway?

32:49Todd McShay:With Bailey. I was told by somebody that, because even if you flip-flop and it's Bailey, it's Bailey at two and it's Reese at five sitting at five either way um I was I was told but I don't believe it that they would they would take the edge rusher best available and and uh Caban Thibodeau would be traded that was a little nugget in Shepter's article he had all these trade guys these are guys that could be traded and all of a sudden you see Caban Thibodeau and I was like I haven't heard that name yeah but that was last year's trade that was gonna happen remember yeah Well, they'll drop that ball.

33:21Todd McShay:So when all of a sudden it was in there, I was like, that jumps out to me. So if they could get rid of one of them. The Giants are fascinating, right? Because the Giants are sitting there at five, and now they've got pick 10.

33:32Bill Simmons:Which was an awesome trade. I didn't talk about that trade on the podcast. That was like, I was staggered by that trade. Yeah. For who? Trading a defensive tackle. I know he's good. In his late 20s, he was expensive. And now I just get to reset with the 10th pick in a draft that basically has 12 good guys and then drops off. Like, that trade's a miracle. I thought the Giants would have had to throw in at least like a third to even the seesaw on that.

33:57Todd McShay:There's something about the Ravens. Like, the Ravens, like Ozzie Newsome and down to Eric DaCosta now, it seems like they sit back, they're patient, they exploit other teams. And now Harbaugh comes from the Ravens, exploiting other teams for being overly eager in a moment. Who's stopping the run for the Giants? I mean, they were like giving them five yards of carry last year. That might be the 10th pick. There's no defensive tackle there. You don't like Falk just reaching or maybe trading back five spots? But they pick 35 in the second round. Yeah, they'll get a guy there. They'll get a good guy there.

34:28Todd McShay:They'll get a guy there.

34:29Bill Simmons:I thought for the Bengals that—I interrupted you. The Bengals, that trade was insane. You're paying like$110 million a year to a quarterback and two receivers. You've holes all over the place. And I give her$28 million. Your defense is terrible. It's like, well, we're going to get this guy. We're going to bring him in. He's the best defensive tackle in the league. Cool. now he's going to be double teamed the whole time yeah you have nobody else in your defense like as an AFC fan of the Patriots yeah I was like great trade guys you did it yeah

34:56Todd McShay:you're gonna be a fucking mess but the Giants sit there at five right and a week ago we would have said Caleb Downs is one of the players they'd like to say from Ohio State Jordan Tyson is one of the players they don't they don't um conceal their interest in players like Joe Shane and goes, Shane and Harbaugh were already at the Arizona State Pro Day where Jordan Tyson didn't work out.

35:17Bill Simmons:Yeah.

35:18Todd McShay:And then Shane went back out for the Jordan Tyson workout, which was just like 30-something routes and catching the ball.

35:26Bill Simmons:Yeah, that was a don't-get-hurt workout. Yeah. The injury-prone guy working out all the time. Just run a straight line and turn around.

35:33Todd McShay:But everyone loved it. It was a great workout.

35:35Bill Simmons:Yeah.

35:35Todd McShay:And then has, I think, dinner with Tyson. So we know there's interest there. But I don't know. a week, 10 days ago, we would have said, better take Downs at five and you can get Tyson at 10. I honestly think with sitting at seven would be a possibility, although I think Dan Quinn is going defense there. He's pushing with Adam Peters to go defense. And it could be Sonny Stiles, if not Stiles, Caleb Downs at seven. But eight is New Orleans. And that could be a spot where Jordan Tyson goes. Nine Kansas City. Nine Kansas City. Jordan Tyson, New Orleans.

36:10Bill Simmons:It just sounds awful.

36:13Todd McShay:Why? What do you mean? But not in their eyes, but yes.

36:17Bill Simmons:Don't they have like a top three worst medicine training recovery situation, them and the Pelicans?

36:23Todd McShay:I mean, Chris Olave, this works for him, right? Yeah, that makes me nervous. So regardless, my point is I don't know that Tyson gets there. And so Caleb Downs is much more likely to get there, but may not get there either.

36:36Bill Simmons:But there's no scenario where they can end up with Downs and Styles, the Giants? They don't want Stiles apparently. Because they signed Edmonds? They signed Edmonds. Yeah. Honestly, that deal's not huge though.

36:48Todd McShay:It's not. It's not huge. I mean,

36:51Bill Simmons:that's the Mac Daddy move. Because I was looking at the Giants odds. First of all, seven and a half wins over under for that. Like, all the signs for them are they're going to be this year's Patriots, right? Yeah. If Darts healthy. Fourth place schedule, new coach. Like, just, they're checking all the boxes. Seven and a half wins seems too low. plus 280 for the playoffs plus 550 for the division. That seems too high. Yeah. If they got two blue chip, blue chip, blue chip five and ten guys and then hit the second round pick, you're good right away. Yeah. Because they already had a bunch of good players and they underachieved last year.

37:25Bill Simmons:You know, how many times do they have the lead in the second half of a game? What if Jeremiah Love is still sitting there at five? You love this. You want to give love to everyone. But yeah, I get it. Scadaboo was not going to stay healthy. So if they got love and downs and you got the best running back in the draft by far, and then you have a safety and I want to talk about downs in a second. You just get the two best guys in the position who four years from now could be like all pros or three years from now, whatever. But the downs thing, I was just on tailgate. I stopped by there for a second.

38:01Bill Simmons:We do this with the draft every year. I've talked to you about it before where everyone knows downs is going to be awesome. Yeah. he's going to go like 10th. And then three years from now, we're going to do the redraft. And it's like, number two, Caleb Downs. Kyle Hamilton. Ed Reed crossed with Kyle Hamilton. He's just amazing. And wow, what a great pick. And it's like, but we knew that before this draft that he was going to be a great pick. So how do you go 10th?

38:27Todd McShay:It's the position value thing. And then you add to position value. He didn't run. We know he's not like his miles per hour is equated like 4.5 type 40. not as long as... So you got all those things working against you, but why not? He's not going to fall...

38:44Bill Simmons:That's the same thing for Hamilton, right? It's like, what is he? He didn't run a 40. Where is he? What position is he?

38:48Todd McShay:Yeah, is he a hybrid? Well, turned out great. Yeah, really great. So I think he could go as high as seven, maybe five, but it would... I don't know. The Giants are fascinating. And also there's... You don't pay Harbaugh, what, 100 million to be the guy without letting him be the guy. And that's the indication I get, but there seems to be all right. That makes me nervous too.

39:14Bill Simmons:Yeah. He was on pace to getting fired the first Lamar Jackson year. Yep. And then Lamar Jackson saved his ass. Yeah. Last couple of years weren't awesome. And then it's like, here are the car keys. Make all the decisions for us. Do you see what Zay Flowers said? What? The practices, that's why we had so many injuries. The practices were too hard. he didn't know how to manage our workload he doesn't do well with the the current players like he just doesn't know how to pull back a little bit and that would be interesting and he's got a bunch of all gas no brakes guys in scataboo and dart and you kind of want those guys to maybe pull back a little bit and it's not like the giants have been staying real healthy

39:53Todd McShay:it's it's a good point yeah no well i mean i just i'm fascinated which way they go because This is the first pick there. You get the sense this is Joe Shane's last is the GM, but I don't know. You know? Yeah. He had a tremendous management of a draft last year, but the last time they had two top 10 picks, it was what? Hibodeau and another Evan Neal, maybe. I think it was Evan Neal. And so are we going to repeat history with that? And the offensive tackle, are you waiting to 10 to get an offensive pick? Yeah, no offensive tackles were off the board in that scenario, right? It was. Right. Well, that's the other thing.

40:29Bill Simmons:And we lived through this with the draft every year where it's like, yeah, I don't think they'll go to nine or ten. And then they go six. And teams get in there and they just panic. Yeah. They can't figure out who to pick and they just go with size. Yeah. How high, what's the highest downs could go that you would be, either of you, that you would be actually kind of shocked by? Like Arizona is out of the question.

40:49Todd McShay:Top four would be anywhere in the top four. So Tennessee, but he's not going there. So. Yeah, it wouldn't shock me if he went fifth, but I would do it. and I just heard you guys say all those things about it, but give me a top eight offensive tackle in the league versus the best safety. Like that's going to win games. I get it.

41:07Bill Simmons:I was doing all the research for running backs because this ties into the love conversation and it feels like top five is just too high for certain positions, even though we know when we do the draft. But six to 10 is not too high. So if you go through all the running backs, basically the last 20 years, the two, two, two and three were Ronnie Brown, Bush, Reggie Bush, Barkley, and Trent Richardson. So I'm going to say those first four, three of them, no way that team does it again. Yep. No. And Reggie Bush. Barkley's still defensible. Yes. 100%. He was incredible. Right. And who was the next pick?

41:46Bill Simmons:It was a quarterback. It was like Trubisky or somebody. I don't remember. It was a quarterback.

41:50Todd McShay:Trubisky was 13th overall.

41:52Bill Simmons:No, Trubisky was third. Remember?

41:53Todd McShay:Oh, no.

41:54Bill Simmons:He was third. The Bears. Mitchell. It was some sort of UB, so. Yes. Yeah. But anyway.

41:59Todd McShay:Yeah.

42:00Bill Simmons:So 2-2-2-3. We went one for four, even if you count Barkley as a hit.

42:04Todd McShay:He's a hit. It was their problem. And you're going to count Reggie Bush, right? I don't. I don't either. He won a Super Bowl. Yeah. No, I don't. But Pierre Thomas was the better running back in the Super Bowl in that year.

42:14Bill Simmons:So 4-4-6. Leonard Fournette, Darren McFadden, and Gentey last year. That was by the way. I don't think any of those teams do that again. Even Gentry, who I thought had some moments. But I just don't think the Raiders would have done that if they could redo that. I think they would take alignment.

42:31Todd McShay:Yeah, yeah. But now we go to 7-8. I think he's going to have a good year this year. But yes, I agree with the premise. Now we're getting into the Bichon. Peterson 7, McCaffrey 8, Bichon 8.

42:44Bill Simmons:Pretty good value. And then CJ Speller 9, Zeke Elliott 10, Gurley 10. so this is a fucking random sample size but what I learned from that is maybe wait till 6 to 10 to take love because history says you go earlier that's a mistake

42:59Todd McShay:yeah and it probably indicates teams that are a little bit better than the trash at the time you know right you know teams picking it's like the Chiefs are picking at 9 you know

43:12Bill Simmons:right you're going to a better Peterson was in a good situation pretty immediately in Minnesota right so whereas like genti goes to the raiders and it's not a good situation typically four

43:22Todd McShay:doesn't go to the super bowl and pick four doesn't go to the super bowl that's not a normal you know occurrence like we saw with the patriots last year so i it's all about where they wind up landing all all positions are dependent upon to a certain degree quarterback absolutely but running back i would argue maybe the most dependent upon what you have in front of you and how you can how you can block it up and the Raiders weren't ready and all those teams you mentioned weren't ready for that guy so did you guys like the Bengals trade for the Bengals or no the Bengals trade for Lawrence yeah no okay yeah I wanted to make sure here's the thing I don't like it in a lot of drafts I don't hate it as much in this draft I really don't because he he's by far the best defensive tackle in this class if he was to be there like who are you getting at 10 that's better

44:08Bill Simmons:than Dexter Lawrence so you'd rather have four years of Lawrence versus the 10th pick in this draft. Yes. The only part of it. But you're paying more and then that's the issue. But that's where I, that's, that's a blind spot. That's a weakness for me that I, I like the cap guy figured that out for me, but I hear you. You're right. You got to factor it in. Who's the cap guy there? I know. Well, wasn't part of it that they had the cap space to, to grab the extra money to fit in. And so basically instead of paying the 10th pick this, they could pay the 10th pick this. Yes. Yes. I just would never do it.

44:36Bill Simmons:I would rather trade. First of all, the Bengals needed players. I'd rather trade backwards than trying to pick up more stuff. Yeah, true.

44:43Todd McShay:The problem is urgency that is created by situations. And that's why I started this with the Ravens. The Ravens have always been good at this, this thing. And some organizations are really good at it. There's going to be an opportunity by an organization that is going to be presented to us because they're desperate. And if you've got Joe Burrow and the injuries and the timeline and now the contracts with the wide receivers, you are desperate to win that. And, and I think this is a desperate move. And honestly, it almost never pays off. If you go look at the history, these desperate moves almost never pay off.

45:21Bill Simmons:I wonder if somebody could run a football team and just stick to like, like somebody hires me as the GM and I'm just like, I only have seven principles guys. I'm never paying two receivers a lot of money. I'm good in the draft. I'm just taking alignment on one side of the ball the other that's all i'm doing yeah i'm gonna try to get us a quarterback like just bear i'm always gonna trade back if i can't decide what to do and these are my seven tenants and i'll leave everything else to my scouting department yeah i'm just saying this doing this they can no one can stick to it though they always fall

45:52Todd McShay:in love with a player yeah you know if i ever got a gm job if i ever gone that route and taken small opportunities i like i've always said there's a couple people in my life i would hire whole time. The common sense guys? The common sense guys who are paying, like Pete Woodfork works for Major League Baseball. Pain in my ass my whole life since we're like 10 years old. Always does the right thing. Sticks by the, you know.

46:14Bill Simmons:So you're the Jets GM and you call Pete and you're like Reese or Bailey, what would you do? And he's like, what the fuck are you doing? No, I'm hiring him.

46:21Todd McShay:Oh, you're hiring him. And I'm going to give him like four or five things that he's allowed to overrule me on because my emotion or the situation or No way. You would never give anyone that power. I'm telling you, there are certain things that are blind spots for all of us, including general managers in the NFL. And there are certain principles. If you just stick to them, it's like playing blackjack over time. But who has the patience to play?

46:47Bill Simmons:So you wouldn't let him overrule you on three things? You wouldn't hire him? I think I'm off the list after the Dexter Lawrence thing.

46:52Todd McShay:There are a couple things. I think I just got cut. He's a good bot. We bounce off of one another well. but i don't think there's anything hard is that we're calling it bouncing off one another argue

47:02Bill Simmons:that's really cute guys yeah thanks we're gonna get this all week yeah exactly the draft

47:07Todd McShay:for the first and second night of the nfl draft we'll be bouncing off one another it is funny

47:13Bill Simmons:like we jaylen rose and i when we were doing the countdown show in 2013 we did this this gimmick called the interview yep and we we went to the lottery combine or wherever and we interviewed every person. We spent 15 minutes with each one in like a, we had cameras and just rapid fire, get a feel the players for each person. Yeah. And I can totally see how the, how the people can get enamored with certain players. Now, ironically, the ones we got enamored with actually turned out to be good. Like we love CJ McCollum. Yeah. Really? This guy's great. Like he seems really mature. Like, and then his tape and we're like, I, I would bet on this guy.

47:51Bill Simmons:But the reality is you're spending 15 to 20 minutes with somebody and you're overrated the reaction, but it's hard not to.

47:58Todd McShay:It's human nature. Right. And it's amazing what goes into this. And how many, think about how many people and how many flights and how many car rides and how many visits and how many people in the, in the cafeteria to the training room, to all that, you have these NFL scouts and the salary money and everything that goes into this process. Right. And you're handed as a general manager, this basically a portfolio, if you will, of

48:21Bill Simmons:everything you need to know in this human being yeah and then your analytics department comes in

48:26Todd McShay:and tells you all the things you can and can't do and all that and then you've got the whether it's aiq or different intellectual testing and then you have the psychological psychologists and all that it's amazing to me that we get to this point in the process in like the last month and the private jet gets you know right and four or five of people who are the most influential people go and they have dinner with, they, um, they meet with family agent. They go and they throw some passes out in the, you know, out in the side field, or they put them through a test, they get them on the board and they wind up not necessarily disregarding, but that kind of trumps it.

49:05Todd McShay:Now all that information is used to, to kind of shrink the pool, right? And so it's down to four or five.

49:11Bill Simmons:They're just grabbing tidbits every place they can.

49:14Todd McShay:But that, that 24 hour interaction, maybe over two, whether it's a coming to our facility, we go out to you and your, your college town, like, I don't know, 10 to 20 hours worth of interaction typically winds up trumping a lot of other stuff.

49:29Bill Simmons:Would you trust what the coach said? Cause I wouldn't really trust it that much unless the coach was so psychotic about how much he loved the guy. It has to be earned. Like it has to be something that he's told you in the past about a player he has a track record right i'm telling you that like you cannot do it right out of the game tell him about jamacus russell and all the the sid at lsu telling about well are you talking about your own coach or the coach from the school oh the coach from the school yeah yeah yeah yeah unless it's negative or like you said a track

49:58Todd McShay:right the interesting one is your own coach oh yeah yeah that dynamic but i wouldn't trust my own coach that much at all well you've got to make sure it fits the scheme or else you're giving

50:08Bill Simmons:them i know but nfl coaches last three to four years barring like exactly miracle i would be really interested in the parent interactions because i do think like you could you could learn a little something my favorite story of all this stuff was this might be a apocryphal but it was when the celtics had the marco faults jason tatum that when they had the number one pick yeah and they brought markel faults to boston to meet him for the weekend and he he was really shy and but they he apparently he asked if uh if boston had chick-fil-a like if they had chick-fil-a franchises in boston and they're like no it's not we don't have it in boston and he was like crestfallen and they were like uh-oh like it set off some sort of red flag that he was like you don't have Chick-fil-A?

50:56Bill Simmons:I have no idea if the story is true, but it's so good I almost can't think it'd be made up. But that's the kind of thing that I'm like, oh shit. I didn't have Chick-fil-A in Philly then either. That's amazing. On the other hand, I love Chick-fil-A so I can see from his side too.

51:09Todd McShay:Yeah, I see from both sides.

51:10Bill Simmons:Yeah, but that was his big Boston question. They're like, huh. You're judging

51:15Todd McShay:us now, huh?

51:17Bill Simmons:How are you going to fit here? That's great. Giants at 5-10 is the most fun team in this draft. Arizona's kind of the most pathetic. They're just wearing a cocktail dress at the bar like, anybody want three? Anyone? Guys want to have a drink? Three trade downs? Anybody?

51:36Todd McShay:I don't know if you can create your own analogy to it, but also I'm going to stay. There's also an element with the ownership where you're out at the bar by yourself, but you're still being controlled by Like, who's making that decision? And it depends on who you listen to now. There's been a lot. Just talking to people in the league, there's been talk of maybe ownership wants Jeremiah Love at three. That's a whole other factor, man. These owners that come in like this, they got one.

52:10Bill Simmons:Arizona needs so many things, I don't even know what they need. If I was doing the team needs, I'd be like, ah, players. Have you looked at the Dolphins roster? Well, that's the saddest situation. It is. It's beyond. I mean, at least they have a lot of picks, so it's interesting. But, I mean, it's bad. I mean, bad. Well, it's weird when you trade Jalen Waddell for 30, and then you see all the receivers who are going to be available at 30, and their best case scenario is to be maybe as good as Jalen Waddell.

52:36Todd McShay:Right. Maybe. A notch below. Yeah. Yeah. They need so much. I don't know that I've ever been this late in the process, studying rosters and really diving in, and felt more helpless about a roster. I actually believe in. Miami, you mean. Miami. Yeah. I believe in John Eric Sullivan. I believe in Jeff Halfley. I like, I think they're the right people to stabilize this thing. Um, but it's going to take more than a minute to get this thing turned around. They've got,

53:03Bill Simmons:I think that would be fun to just, you have no pressure because you need so many things. It's like, all right, this is like blank slate time.

53:10Todd McShay:And we hear BPA best player available all the time. Like they literally can just sit there like legs up. Yeah. Where's our board. Okay. There it is. Um, Call it in. Who's number three. Yeah, take them.

53:24Bill Simmons:Whereas, like, I think the Chiefs have an incredible amount of pressure. I would say the Giants have the most pressure. Yeah. Because you got to nail these picks. But then Chiefs at nine, and they're 42. But they had this Mahomes window that I watched it. You watched it with Brady. Yeah. You watched it as well. Yeah. Where the draft just ebbed and flowed the Brady arc. And there were years, cluster drafts, where they just missed drafts. Yep. Doesn't it feel like it cost them Super Bowls? They're going into that era of they're going to be very competitive for seven or eight years, but they're not going to win a Super Bowl.

53:57That's what it feels like to me. It comes down to the drafts. Mahomes will keep them in it. Yeah. But now it's the roster turnover. The early Patriots dynasty was a totally different roster than the later Patriots dynasty. Kelsey moving on. Chris Jones is still playing an unbelievable level, but he's getting older.

54:12Todd McShay:I feel like they've been in that for two years. I think you felt that last year. We were already there. I felt it a year before, to be honest with you. and I think Mahomes, but you know what I mean? I felt, I honestly, the years, the last year they went to the Super Bowl and lost. I think getting overpowered by Philly. Yes. I think about the comp all the time. The one thing that's really interesting is Andy Reid's not as young as Belichick was when they went to the first three.

54:32Bill Simmons:And he was terrible last year. I thought they were really poorly coached last year and everyone's afraid to criticize Andy Reid but they were badly coached.

54:39Todd McShay:Well, he self-assessed in so many ways. Like he's reinvigorated. Like he, I think he recognizes How many years has he had? I mean, I don't know. he's three, four years left coaching.

54:49Bill Simmons:Also, they really, and Belichick did this too. And we've seen teams do this, like really explored the capacity of how many iffy guys can we bring in? Guys with baggage. What do you mean? When Belichick, sometimes these guys can have so much success and these teams can have so much success. They're like, oh, it's fine. It's one misdemeanor. It's like, no, no, he's mostly on time. And I remember, who was the, Josh Gordon was a classic. Josh Gordon. But Belichick just went in that mode. Like, it'll be fine. We'll bring him in. We'll figure it out. And the Chiefs had a lot of those. And I think they were probably at capacity.

55:24Todd McShay:Yep. I think they were.

55:26Bill Simmons:What do you think they need at nine? Because the easy one would be like, take the best corner. It's right. Yeah. I don't think it's going to be a corner.

55:31Todd McShay:I think they're going to get a corner. They pick at nine and 30, right? Yeah. 29. 29. Yeah. And Miami's at 30. And then Patriots 31 and obviously Seattle. The interesting element in this is I think if they were to get aggressive, which I would not do, but I would understand, it would be to move up for a pass rusher.

55:55Bill Simmons:So the Reese Bailey leftover guy, can we get up there and grab him?

56:01Todd McShay:Conversations have been made. There are a lot of conversations that have been made, things we never even knew about. And you find out after the fact. It doesn't mean a trade's going to happen. but moving up from 9 to 3 costs a lot.

56:14Bill Simmons:Would you trade 9 and 40 for 3 in this draft? Because I would rather just stay at 9 than take 40. You're going to get a pretty good player at 40. Yeah, so you could get a Reuben Bain.

56:24Todd McShay:You could get a Reuben Bain. So there's that edge rusher. They need a wide receiver they can count, right? So there's that element of it. Then there's this Andy Reid. My understanding is Andy Reid is like, we've got to get another offensive lineman. and I don't know where you get that. Which you could take at nine. Yeah. But you can't take it at 29. You can't count on that being there at 29. Now, maybe you move up from 29 to 24 and it costs a whole lot less or something like that. See, I wonder if they're going to do that with tight end.

56:56Bill Simmons:Sadiq? At nine? No, at moving up to like the low teens or high 20s if they feel like they have a chance to swoop in and get him.

57:07Todd McShay:If they love him, they could. Brett Veach is not afraid to pull the trigger. Yeah. But I just, the managing the element of we need an edge rusher. We need a wide receiver. We need a replacement for Kelsey. They need a tackle. Yeah. And we need a tackle. And Andy really wants us to get a tackle. Yeah. And there's only seven of them. And that might not get to 29. So we need those three things. We're not in the business of giving away picks to go move up.

57:33Bill Simmons:Also tough when you already use draft capital to draft the tackle. but now you've decided that's not the tackle. Right. That's where the Patriots got in that spot a couple times. I don't know if they've decided that but he's missed 19 games in the last two years. I just don't know how you're going into this and the right tackle, Jalen Morris, started I think five or six games at most in a season. I floated this before. I would have pissed on X about you can't use that pick on a guy who's not going to be a starter. I was like, what are you talking about? This guy's probably going to start.

58:03Todd McShay:I want you to think about how much money these organizations spend, right? Simmons is so talented at left tackle I would I'm not going to make any I would have whatever care team that was necessary whatever that would be to be round the clock let's make sure this guy has everything he needs because he is the personal protector of the most of the number one like Ricky Williams of Texas do you remember that SS story that came out where he was like dropping banana peels behind him and someone would pick him up and throw him out for him just because that guy Williams like I always think about that because there's no salary cap on support

58:41Bill Simmons:yeah that guy's your answer coaches and and support yeah the two things you could just spend whatever you want right so I would get that guy right I think it might be over for them I mean at least for this window of it is that you just being hopeful as a Patriots fan or are you two years ago.

59:01Todd McShay:This is, this is, they are. Mahomes coming off now.

59:04Bill Simmons:Turns 30. Pretty devastating injury. It's, the only reason I mention this is they have the seventh best odds to win the Super Bowl right now and that seems crazy to me. They, like, think about all the things that would have to go right for them to be a Super Bowl team.

59:17Todd McShay:that's because, that's because there's a lot of people who would put money on it because it's the Chiefs and, yeah, I get it, but I'm saying, but it's instructive

59:24Bill Simmons:because that's their perception is they're going to flip the switch and be fine this year and I feel the opposite. I don't think, I'd be really surprised. I mean, they're going to have an easier schedule.

59:32Todd McShay:The unknown, obviously, is how when Mahomes comes back. Yeah, what's he going to be like? What's he going to be like?

59:37Bill Simmons:Brady wasn't, when he came back in 09, the offense was good. But I really felt like it took him like an extra year to be Brady. Yeah, there was a famous Belichick clip of like, follow through, man. Like, follow through. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because you get all these guys going around your legs. And I don't know. I just felt like it took a while for him not to think about that. It's in your, right?

59:57Todd McShay:When you spend the entire offseason recovering and rehabbing and you're worrying about one thing, really? Truly, that's the one thing. And then so you get out there and you're protecting that one thing. So it takes a minute to get over it. What was always the knock on the Patriots run was the AFC East, which is garbage every year. And the AFC West with Knicks being hurt. I just never agreed with that. I know, I hear you. But if you're going off the argument, the Chargers, I think, are a big. I think the Chargers are coming, man. I think they are coming on and you're going to have a tough time in that division.

1:00:25That's the team.

1:00:26Bill Simmons:I think they're the one I'm the most afraid of in the AFC is the Chargers. I agree. Because I just felt like last year they probably would have been right in there. Why do we talk about San Francisco's injuries?

1:00:37Todd McShay:I swear to you, I've been doing this for 26 years. I swear to you, I've been talking about the Chargers injuries for a good 18 of those years. Some organizations. Well, they don't have an electromagnetic button next to them. I love that they're doing studies on it. It's in their head now. But every year it seems like the Chargers. oh, they could have, they'll get those guys back from injury and it'll be just fine. So I hope, I hope so. It would be great to see. But they're frightening if they stay healthy. Frightening, yes.

1:01:06Bill Simmons:Yeah, they, what are their odds? Yeah, so they have the fifth best odds. That makes sense to me. 15 to one.

1:01:12Todd McShay:Yes.

1:01:12Bill Simmons:Better, slightly better odds than the Pats. The Giants being 71 is pretty crazy. Because that seems, I just think those, I think that'll be 30 to one by the time the season starts. They're going to have enough talent with the schedule. And we just have seen this every year that there's no way that they're not going to be in the mix somehow.

1:01:30Todd McShay:This isn't a draft thing, but spending this amount of time, like really diving into these rosters. Yeah. I mean, obviously the Seahawks have what they have. The Rams have what they have. I don't know that there's an organization with a better roster. Let's just say in the AFC, top to bottom roster wise than what Nick Casario has built in Houston. the quarterback element of it and what is really going on there and there's been speculation and rumors and all like and you drafted him that high and he was that good as a rookie you know what i mean if if they get him right and i don't even mean right like playing is but like three quarters of what he's playing as a rookie yeah um 20 to 20 to 1 for them they're frankly yeah but but that's the biggest if in sports.

1:02:17Todd McShay:Yeah. Like, their rosters, like, some teams with needs, it's like the first two are really important needs. The second one, we need to get some depth. The third, you know, or the third, the fourth, but for them, like, there's, yes, their offensive line, let's continue to build that, but they don't have a lot of, like, they're loaded with deep and wide receiver and running back. The receiver's coming back this year. Their defenses. The Rams are up there too, man. I mean, No, I said the Rams and Seattle have one. Yeah.

1:02:48Bill Simmons:I mean, I was going to talk about the Rams with one of the pressure teams at 13. Because the Puka thing is a huge story. It's been one of those kicked under the rug. Yeah. This guy's had a lot of personal shit going on publicly. And then finally went into rehab. And this was the best receiver in the league.

1:03:06Todd McShay:Yeah.

1:03:07Bill Simmons:And we have no idea what we're going to expect from him this year now. Or what was going on with him. Or is it going to get better? and they're one of the teams that's just like, we're probably taking a receiver, probably taking a receiver, like so blatantly that I almost don't trust it.

1:03:20Todd McShay:I don't think they are at 13. I think they're going to take a receiver in the second round. Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's like, I bore you out with this, like attraction is different, right? Like, you know, like one person you'd be attracted to, everyone's beautiful and all that. For the... Blondes and Brunettes are... Yeah. For the Rams, with their system specifically, they're not attracted to a lot of the fastest, tallest, all those receivers. They're attracted to one type. And that one type is a physical son of a bitch, blocking, contact balance, toughness up. And we're going to scheme you up and we'll get you open.

1:04:00Todd McShay:And all you got to do is break that first tackle and just ramble, you know, and keep it rolling and block for our run game. and so I can get that in the second round there's Dijon Stripling from Ole Miss there's Jeremy Bernard from Alabama there's even the third round so I think Les Snead is the biggest wild card in this first round of the draft they seem like a Downsy kind of team

1:04:25Bill Simmons:to me like moving up like a couple spots and just swooping in and getting them they have guys there

1:04:32Todd McShay:it's one of two things I don't envision unless and Sean sitting back at 13, we'll take a guard or we'll take a.

1:04:41Bill Simmons:Right.

1:04:42Todd McShay:It's either we are all in as all indicators are pointing. They have to be all in in general

1:04:49Bill Simmons:because Stafford's got two years left max.

1:04:52Todd McShay:Right. We're all in. And like, we really don't like, if we want to give up 2027, we're not, we're not that worried about it. We can give up second next year or something like that and go move up and target a guy. Jeremiah Love is fascinating to me. If he starts to fall six, Cleveland. Yeah. I mean, can we stop?

1:05:10Bill Simmons:Can we make a rule that he can't go to Cleveland? No, no, I'm saying trading. I'm just saying, like, you don't want him to go. That's my worst case scenario for him. Or for most of the guys in the draft. Yeah. So you're saying Rams switching, going 13 to 6.

1:05:25Todd McShay:Something like that would be something to look out for.

1:05:28Bill Simmons:Like Todd Gurley 2.0 action for them?

1:05:31Todd McShay:But then what if it's a total pivot and it's like, yeah, we're going to be here beyond Stafford. and we're doing a deal now with Matthew and we're going to keep him happy, but we are in love with Ty Simpson and so we're just going to take him at 13. We can move on. Don't ask more questions. We don't have to dwell on it, but I'm just saying I said it. Yep. Okay, nice. Holy mackerel. Wouldn't you at least trade back to do that? He's going higher than you think.

1:05:57Bill Simmons:That was one of the questions I had for you because I was watching one of the channels this morning and they were talking about, is 21 too high to take Ty Simpson for Pittsburgh? And I'm like, what are you guys talking about? He's definitely, the question is, will he be there at 21 for Pittsburgh to take? Because somebody is going to shoot their wide and take him in the top 20 would be my prediction.

1:06:18Todd McShay:That's the information I'm getting, and I don't definitively know. I throw the Rams out there because I'm getting information definitely, and I know the Rams at one point really like Ty Simpson. Like that's, that's firm.

1:06:29Bill Simmons:His Fando draft position is 29.5 under.

1:06:33Todd McShay:Yeah, because even if you're the Cardinals, you're worried that there's another team. Yeah, you can't wait. Yeah, I'm told that the Jets do have interest, but I'm also told that the Jets have interest. Jets at 16? No, no. At 33, could take him. He's not getting out of the first round.

1:06:56Bill Simmons:I just don't see it.

1:06:57Todd McShay:We're saying the same thing.

1:06:59Bill Simmons:Plus, you get the extra year. That's the secret sauce to all of this. you get the fifth year if you take him in the first round. Yep. You talked about Pittsburgh. Is Aaron Rodgers going to make an appearance and say he's coming back in front of the tens of thousands of draft fans there? And then what would their reaction be?

1:07:12Todd McShay:No, because Aaron Rodgers won. Oh, he's milking this. Okay. How many times are we going to put, I don't even understand why like Schefter and like people are out there and I know he and those two have a thing and I love it. Right. But I don't even understand why there's this like, you know, you should tell the organization this time. We get, It's every year. It's the same thing. It's just the human being. The human being, Aaron Rodgers, wants this, and he would like nothing more. Going out there gives closure, and then we're still not talking about it through the second day of the draft.

1:07:42Bill Simmons:Him and Jerry Jones are the two that, like, how can I get attention? Right.

1:07:46Todd McShay:This is going to be going on in late March. But the draft being in Pittsburgh?

1:07:50Bill Simmons:Yeah, late, no question.

1:07:52Todd McShay:Yeah, it'll be going on in June. In Pittsburgh, he can go out in front of all the fans. No, he hasn't. Soak it up. He wants us all to be like, is Aaron here? You know?

1:08:00Bill Simmons:Yeah. I mean, I'm here for that. Kind of the sad thing about that is nobody's doing that.

1:08:04Todd McShay:Yeah.

1:08:05Bill Simmons:It worked the first season. That's what I mean. Like, does he come out and be like, I'm coming back. And all the Pittsburgh fans are like, oh, cool. Great. Yeah. Great. He's coming back. Right. You know, like, it's not the response that he thinks it's going to be. Also, I said this to you last year. I just think people get amnesia with NFL seasons. And we throw ourselves in the draft and free agency. And then it's the summer. And then we get to August. And people just don't remember what happened the year before. There's a reset. And it's like, we left last season and be like, yeah, Aaron Rodgers, probably not winning more than one playoff round at most with Aaron Rodgers as your QB at age 42.

1:08:38Todd McShay:And it's like four months off and everyone's like, Aaron Rodgers. Could they get him? Yeah. That or Will Howard right now, so I don't know.

1:08:45Bill Simmons:Well, we finally made it. The NBA playoffs. No more tanking discussions, at least for a couple days. We get to watch the best players and teams compete every day when the stakes are highest. And when I watch, I like to bet on Fando. Fandu is a brand I trust. Easy to build. Buy bet. I know I'll get my winnings instantly. I love looking at the odds there. So this week, I still feel like Orlando is being overlooked. They were like plus nine, something like that. I think that's a 50-50 series potentially. I also like Denver and Minnesota. I think Minnesota is a really good road team, but you could also get them in Minnesota.

1:09:21Bill Simmons:Those would be the two I would look at. I'm going to have at least one more set of picks over the weekend. Again, I'm going to put on Twitter. Check out my picks in the FanDuel Sportsbook app and on my Twitter feed. Don't forget to boost your potential winnings before you place it. FanDuel, play your game. This episode is brought to you by Brooks Running. Sometimes in the sports world, we see performances so mind-blowing you think someone somewhere is bending the rules. Like when an unknown player comes out of nowhere and tears through the league with a dominant scoring streak. Well, the glycerin flex from Brooks is that phenomenon in shoe form.

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1:10:27Bill Simmons:No matter what hat style you prefer, New Era has them all. We're talking 5950 fitteds or adjustable styles like the 940A frames and 970s. Sporting classics like, for instance, remember those old Vancouver Grizzlies looks? Remember the mid-90s Celtics? Remember the Hornets in the early 90s with Morning and LJ? Yeah. Old school roots, modern drip. Visit neweracap.com to shop now. Use one-time code ringer for 20 % off your first order. Exclusions apply. So we think Rams are off the board. We have no idea what they're going to do. And then the Philly thing is the other weird thing about this draft.

1:11:06Bill Simmons:Why? We talked about this before we started. With this A.J. Brown trade that is apparently happening and yet, unlike in the NBA where you say, we've agreed to a trade, we can't become official until July 15th in the NBA. NFL, it's like, well, they can't trade him until June 1st because then they can split his cap. So it would have to happen after June 1st. It's going to happen. Is it happening or is it not happening? Right. And then all the variables that could change this happening, including like a wide receiver ending up for either the Patriots or the Eagles that they get excited about. AJ Brown feels like he has leverage and says, well, I need a contract extension if we're going to do this.

1:11:46Bill Simmons:Like I'm just glass half empty on this AJ Brown thing. Is this the Patriots fan speaking or just in - Patriots fan speaking. Okay, yeah. Is this trauma from when the Red Sox didn't get A-Rod? Trauma from when we didn't get everybody. Alex Franklin, four months ago. He's coming for 150 million, then he wasn't. Yeah. I just don't, when you get agents involved and just outside factors, I just don't trust anything until it happens. If you're someone, a receiver gets hurt or something happens where someone needs it and all of a sudden they're in the market and they're calling Philadelphia.

1:12:17Todd McShay:Yeah, but AJ Brown's wife is calling about dance classes in Brookline or something like that. I mean, he did grow up a Patriot fan. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, but it's... No, I understand. It's almost too good.

1:12:28Bill Simmons:What if he's in Vegas and Jalen Hurts is there too and they're like, let's have dinner. Let's hash it out. And then two hours later, it's like, hey, we're good. AJ wants to stay. Right. The only problem there is how he's like, well, I just traded for Wicks and he brought in this other guy. Yeah. We're going to draft someone. And yeah.

1:12:45Todd McShay:so they're picking 23 yeah the but they're not going to pick 23 it's how we roseman how he's got he has to move around and they need an offensive tackle and what's going to happen is we're going to have we're going to have um francis mawin we know from miami and spencer fano from from utah and somewhere in that top 10 12 range right and then it there's this like second wave of, and I think it starts at 17. There could be a team in between. Uh, the Ravens could go off and could go guard and Venga, you want a from Penn state, but then 17 is Detroit and everyone knows that they've put in more work than every other organization, these offensive tackles.

1:13:28Todd McShay:So the jets are at 16 Tampa's at 15.

1:13:31Bill Simmons:They're already getting phone calls from organizations

1:13:35Todd McShay:like the Steelers, the Eagles, the Texans, the, um, who are the other, um, the Texans, the 49ers, the bears are possibility. So all those two, you got this murderer's row of teams that need offensive tackles from 17 to 30. I mean, Miami, if they don't get a tackle at 12, they could use one.

1:13:54Bill Simmons:So I can't say the Patriots don't need a tackle.

1:13:58Todd McShay:Sorry. 31. Yeah, absolutely. 31. So 17 to 31, there's about eight teams that need an offensive tackle, and there's, at that point, only five remaining. So there's going to be movement there. That's why seven and a half over.

1:14:13Bill Simmons:Yeah. Do you want to hear the Patriots excuses I've talked myself into? Oh, here we go. Since Super Bowl?

1:14:18Todd McShay:Yeah.

1:14:19Bill Simmons:Why they lost? Yeah. Okay. Drake was hurt. Mm-hmm. That's a fact. I don't know if that's true or not, but, well, we think it's true. Yeah. Okay. I did see him throwing the mini footballs at the basketball game a couple weeks I don't know if you saw that. You look good. Studied that. I did see that, actually. I thought he was snapping it again. Yep. Drake was definitely hurt. That's one thing I say. Will Campbell definitely playing on a bum knee. Yeah. Gutting it out. You know, he was a whipping boy during the playoffs. Now he's a hero to me. He's played through pain. Yep. God only knows what kind of suffering he had.

1:14:48Jared Wilson wasn't great either, by the way. Like, I mean, everyone talks about Campbell, but Jared Wilson.

1:14:51Bill Simmons:Our whole line got destroyed.

1:14:53Todd McShay:Seattle didn't even know which side to go after. Did I tell you about him and Elliot Wolfe? Oh, no. we had uh we had elliot wolf and we did the gm series yeah and um and we had elliot wolf and i i had i had met him before but i didn't know him well and mench got in late the night before we got in indianapolis all sorts of weather in new england you don't deal with it out here anymore bill and i know um and and so we hadn't had a chance to really talk about it we sit down i asked a couple questions i'm talking about like elliot what's it like you know ron you're with your dad and like the bowels of Lambeau Field and you're watching tape as you know I'm kind of getting them warmed up right the fluffers a lot of fluffing question three goes from Mitch I can kind of feel him like he's like Will Campbell I thought it was early Will Campbell I saw the short arms on tape we saw it in the playoffs and I'm like he's going for it I was like are you guys moving regard I didn't say it that way but I was like everyone wants to move He would be a great guard.

1:15:56Todd McShay:He was awesome. He looked like he goes, he is absolutely our left actor. Yeah. He was great about it. He was great. But I felt like I had to ask. I mean, I've been ripping Campbell. Like now he's going to be on our show and I'm not going to say anything. It was the time.

1:16:09Bill Simmons:The only thing I worry about him is I think he's such an intense, committed, competitive, crazy, all about the football team guy. Like the moment he got drafted, he's like, I am now Drake May's bodyguard. I'm going to die for him. And I really wonder mentally how he handled just getting his ass kicked in the playoffs. You know, like he's probably been successful at that position at every stage of his life, dating back to like age four. Yeah.

1:16:32Todd McShay:Yeah. Some of the stories too, or he's, he's, he's as intense as you can get.

1:16:38Bill Simmons:Like the team worries about him a little bit, taking the job home. Yeah. Taking the job home. So I just, I hope, I hope he got through that because we've certainly seen some Boston athletes over the years that. Yeah. Kind of wilt. Yeah. That had that. Well, that, yeah. that had the bad moment and they were kind of I can't remember an offensive tackle having that kind of moment

1:16:55Todd McShay:that kind of stage.

1:16:56Bill Simmons:Plus now Reuben Bain is the new short arm guy.

1:16:59Todd McShay:Yeah.

1:16:59Bill Simmons:Right. He passed his torch. He's like here Reuben everyone can talk about your arms now. There's an offensive tackle from Utah I love and he's got shorter arms Will Campbell and everyone's like what's the deal dude? How can you how can you like one over the other? Yeah. It's different tape. So the other thing the other past stance I have now is we just should have lost in Denver and it would have been fine. Like lose there in a blizzard. They score with five minutes left. We don't have to go to the Super Bowl and get this huge ass kicking. No one wins in Denver. It turns out right after the game, Drake May was actually hurt the whole time.

1:17:32Bill Simmons:And we're just like, great. Okay. Great season. Let's move on. It's like getting that Super Bowl ass kicking just made it so much worse. I really wish it hadn't happened. It's not a good thing. Right. And then you think about all the bad signs for this year and the bad juju that comes with this. The A.J. Brown thing, 2022 and 23, his first two years when he got traded from Tennessee to Philly. 303 targets in those two years. Almost 3 ,000 yards and 18 TDs. He's going to be 29 this season. There's pretty good track records with people moving that age. Yeah. It seems good. Something scares me about it.

1:18:14Bill Simmons:I didn't like the way he looked last year. I'd love to know more about why did he look that way.

1:18:20Todd McShay:I agree with that. I also think fresh start. I think everyone kind of looked that way on the offense for the Eagles last year. There was a lot going on. So I hope I would be.

1:18:29Bill Simmons:Like they were just going to work like this sucks.

1:18:32Todd McShay:Scheme problems. I hate my job. Yeah. With all the reports. I think it was just a drain. And obviously he wears his emotions on his sleeve. And it's very public about everything that he's dealt with. And I think it just. He hit a point.

1:18:44Bill Simmons:Is there a receiver that doesn't wear their emotions on their sleeve? Very few. Like Fitz was one. That's it. Yeah, fits. That's be part of his Hall of Fame case. Never wears emotions on his sleeve. First ballot. Unlike any other receiver. Actually, literally, he didn't wear sleeves. He was sleeveless the whole time.

1:19:03Todd McShay:I just think about Drake with his development, getting him that. He doesn't have that. He's never had anything close to that.

1:19:10Bill Simmons:Well, Mina said on NFL Live yesterday, which I was watching, that the Pats had man-to-man defense, the highest number of any team in the league. because you could feel it watching the game because every defense is like yeah yeah we what are we worried about let's just let's play up on all these guys yeah and aj is like by all these and being stats the best guy against man-to-man defense and this would be a game changer right so i get it the thing was interesting about the espen article that came out about the eagles and jalen hurts calling his own place and did you hear did you read this yeah so he was changing all the play if you're an office coordinator and you're game planning for a guy If you have a talent like A.J.

1:19:49Brown and you're like, we're game planning in this way. And all of a sudden your quarterback is changing everything that's no longer making him the focal point of the offense. On certain plays at least. And then you have an opportunity to play for Josh McDaniels who's going to like, that's what he does.

1:20:03Bill Simmons:Well, they'll also play with pace, which is the thing I never understood with the Eagles. I know they, it seemed like this was an actual strategy for them to limit the minutes in the game because of possessions, because of the math of this. I don't think the Pats think that way at all. So they would be more like, oh, we'll put pressure on you and we have AJ out there and you're going to have to be constantly worried and keep your defense on the field.

1:20:27Todd McShay:And our quarterback can run if you turn, you know.

1:20:30Bill Simmons:Hopefully he can run and throw on like the last two games of the season. I assume he'll be able to roll out and throw again. We stopped calling that play. You're wearing the scars. I don't know if I will. When we were calling the Drake May rolls out and whips a line drive play, I was like, he's fucking hurt. You can't tell me he's not hurt at this point. The arc and the velocity were just different. When are the Patriots taking a tight end? They're going to need a tight end, right? I feel like people are talking.

1:20:55Todd McShay:Well, there's 28 of them invited to the combine. Talking about tight end enough. There'll be some third round guy. Yeah, or maybe four.

1:21:01Bill Simmons:They signed a blocking tight end they were all excited about. Yeah, Julian. Yeah, Julian somebody. Yeah. Julian Bell. Okay. Last thing. Well, second to last thing. so Zona and Cleveland are the trade down teams and you think Saints Cowboys have 12 and 20 and like getting attention Jets at 16 Rams at 13 are there any other trade up teams

1:21:30Todd McShay:I'm trying to sit here I don't Washington Washington's not going to Cleveland we talked about I think that's the list Yeah, I think that's probably the list. I was trying to figure out. The offensive tackles. I think when we get to like Philly and some of those teams, I could see a move up. The little like quick moves back. Like four or five. Yeah, four or five spots. Yeah.

1:21:51Bill Simmons:I was trying to figure out like somebody is on the board at nine that Jerry gets all excited about because he's 98 years old. Like Jeremiah Love falls to nine. Or down. Somebody down. Something we can't anticipate, right? And could there be a, they have 12 and 20? yes and the chiefs have nine and 40 could there be like a you take our 12 and 20 we'll take back 940 and yeah a third one of those type of trades yeah the problem the problem with that theory is

1:22:23Todd McShay:i'm told the only reason that the um the cowboys would move up is for an edge rusher and if there's an edge rusher worth taking there i think the chiefs would take that would be reuben in vain. Right. So we do this, we talk about, you talk about the amnesia in the off season, the NFL, there's amnesia every year with the Cowboys in the draft. Yeah. You know that they've had 34, 37 picks. I want to say somewhere in the mid to high thirties of picks in the first three rounds dating back to 2014. And one time they have moved up and that was to Marcus Lawrence in 2014 since then that nothing.

1:22:57Bill Simmons:So it's a lot of chatter about moving up. Jerry's going to go crazy. Well, it worked on me because I always do it every year.

1:23:04Todd McShay:But this year, it actually would make sense as long as it doesn't require pick 20. They've got to pick, I think, 92 overall, the third round. I could see that. But that's not getting up to three. That's moving up a handful of spots to go get an edge rusher. I just don't know how feasible it is unless you're giving away next year or something, which I think, I said it's a fireable offense. She kind of walked it back, by the way. I haven't...

1:23:30Bill Simmons:I like fireball offenses, one of my favorite phrases, and would be a good blog name. But yes, it would. It would be, yeah. And maybe even a good band. Yeah, fireball... Going to see fireball offense today at the Garden.

1:23:42Todd McShay:So a fireball offense is trading a first-round pick from next year. That class is going to be... And it's not just the quarterbacks. But... Has Mitch already started his work

1:23:51Bill Simmons:on the class of 27 yet? The quarterbacks we know pretty well. Not a lot of the other players.

1:23:57Todd McShay:I got a mock draft coming out on... Yeah. Yeah. Way too early mock draft for next week. I love those. Taking the show on Monday.

1:24:03Bill Simmons:I mean, it's. You're the problem. But you know what would be. You know what would be a good podcast is. Is reviewing the way too early mock draft. Oh, they do it. In like February. No, you guys doing it. Oh, yeah. Yeah. We should do that.

1:24:15Todd McShay:That's.

1:24:16Bill Simmons:That's great. A couple quarterbacks way up there.

1:24:19Todd McShay:Yeah. That's the thing with the draft. It's humble pie, man. It's so volatile. Thanks, Bill. You're right.

1:24:24Bill Simmons:You're guessing with 20 year old kids. Yeah. My son's 18. and he's had five zags just in the last seven months. These are teenagers and young dudes. Who knows?

1:24:36Todd McShay:Yeah, and we saw some zags this fall. Well, a couple of quarterbacks. Are Aller, you're out on him? I wasn't in on him last year. Yeah, he was never. Yeah, but he's going to go probably in the third round. There's some teams that like him. Nussmeier? He loves Nussmeier. I like Nussmeier. Yeah, I think there's a shot. No? You can see Nussmeier in the third round, the right system. He doesn't have a ton of starts. He gets hurt. He's small. I don't see it. I didn't see it either alright

1:25:01Bill Simmons:wild card crazy I'm looking at the Fando odds is it Bailey or Reese there's no chance anyone else goes to correct what if it's a trade I didn't think there was going to be a trade last year everyone else's odds are 125 to 1 and up so it's really everybody's decided these are the two yeah it's definitely number three Reese is the favorite at plus 130 Bailey's plus 260 Love is plus 330 say them again Reese plus 130 Bailey plus 260 Love plus 330 which I thought was fairly enticing

1:25:38Todd McShay:Bailey's assumed to go the second overall pick so that makes Reese the favorite the problem with the Arizona pick is that there's a legitimate chance that the team moves up to three and Arizona takes a below market deal but if they move up to

1:25:50Bill Simmons:three who are they taking the other

1:25:51Todd McShay:alright four what's Sonny Stiles number for four for four yeah

1:25:58Bill Simmons:Well, Love is plus 115, the favorite.

1:26:02Todd McShay:Bailey's plus 410, and Stiles is plus 490. That's interesting. I think Stiles could be. I'm not saying he will. What I've been told for Tennessee is if one of those edge rushers does get there, let's say Arizona takes Jeremiah Lovett, three. They would take Reese, let's say. If not, Sonny Stiles. Robert Sala views it differently than most. that middle linebacker is like that's equivalent of getting an edge for him like yeah that's the you know fred warner that's there so that's something to look out for i could see styles

1:26:37Bill Simmons:going for too i also didn't mind tennessee's running backs last year but you'd have to really love love but it makes me nervous spending all that capital on a qb and a running back yeah right you're gonna do the fourth and the first pick in back-to-back drafts the thing about Tennessee's run game when I started looking at it, Pollard's a pretty good back. I mean, 1 ,000 yards for like five or six seasons in a row. He was money down the stretch last year. He's good. Yeah, he was like winning fantasy drafts. And they had Ties Ray Spears. But Spears can't stay healthy. He can't stay healthy, yeah.

1:27:05So they had the third fewest carries. You have a rookie quarterback and they had the third fewest carries in the league. They got to get, it doesn't have to be love. They got to get another back that they can get more committed to the ground game. Like, they just have to.

1:27:17Todd McShay:What I'm interested in is you're sitting there at four.

1:27:24Todd McShay:have to take styles at four or you you try to bait up a team to come get jeremiah love you know the giants putting out that all of a sudden in the last 72 it's tough to manage all this man because you're having i'm having conversations with people who are actually making decisions and we're talking about all 31 other teams and what they could do what they're hearing what

1:27:43Bill Simmons:scouts are hearing and they're kind of using you to find out what you're hearing totally yeah and

1:27:48Todd McShay:i'm using them to find out what they're hearing and you know and so we're we're kind of and we're doing the like you know the tap dance yeah um and then you get off the phone you get on the next call so there's just a lot of but i always get worried in the last 72 hours to like 150 hours of why is this this message is coming it's resurfacing or this is the first i've heard of this you know

1:28:13Bill Simmons:right is this late developing news or is this a purpose now the board is set the decisions are

1:28:18Todd McShay:basically made so but all of a sudden the giants it's like oh if love is there they'll take them but wouldn't if love is there isn't that like come come move up come move up and get what they don't know is maybe that might drive the market up for tennessee to get a good deal to move out of four now styles is probably going to go seven so where would that be too but um but yeah if i was tennessee

1:28:41Bill Simmons:i wouldn't mind moving back a couple spots i'm picking up something because i just need people Fifth pick, the odds. Styles is the favorite at plus 185. Tyson's plus 280. I'm told it's not Styles. Take the field on that one. Love plus 380. Caleb Downs plus 550.

1:29:01Todd McShay:What about Tyson? Tyson was plus 280. I think Tyson's in play. I mean, I know Tyson's in play, but do they think they can get him at 10? Same thing with Downs. Jeremiah loves the wild card taking Tyson at five would be kind of insane I think that seems too high yeah

1:29:23Bill Simmons:because of the injuries I want my receivers to be in the field

1:29:28Todd McShay:it becomes this balancing act of now we've fallen in love but where do we really truly think we should be able we should be able to take him versus where can we take him why do the Giants need another stud receiver by the way Well, Malik Nabors, they don't even know. They're worried about when he's coming back to full strength. Like the start of the season, there's part of that. You've got a quarterback that needs another weapon. Honestly, it reeks to me. Jordan Tyson feels like if we can get him at 10, awesome. Okay. But the information for what it's worth is saying that they might, they could take a swing there.

1:30:05Bill Simmons:Can I give you my five types of receivers? Yes. Yes. Speaking of Jordan Tyson, the injury prone stud. Yep. Really tough one. Yeah. Really, I have to have a lot of meetings about that. High floor ceiling guy, but something leaves you a little cold. Cardinal Tate. Like, yeah, he's going to be awesome, but it's, well, why aren't I more excited to take him? Yeah. Well, because he was the second best receiver on his college team. So was JSN. I get it, but that was the same thing on JSN. Was this guy going to be? High floor ceiling leaves me a little cold. Okay. Physical and traffic wins every ball guy.

1:30:39Bill Simmons:This guy just goes either way. Yeah. like you just you know this was like the DeAndre Hopkins was a great example of this the Patriots have had guys like this other times the guy just can't get open yeah it depends on the scheme Kelvin Benjamin for the Panthers wasn't he a big guy yeah so Denzel Boston is the version of that this year I like him we know the inside outside guy that everyone calls Twitchy that's Casey Concepcion Twitchy's a good one So the Pats had Kyle Williams last year. He was twitchy. He was like, twitchy. He'll beat you up. And then slot stud, which is my personal favorite.

1:31:19Bill Simmons:That's Lemon. But I like when it's just like, you know what this guy is? He's an awesome fucking slot guy. And he's just going to get open. And he can block. That sounds great. I'll take that guy.

1:31:29Todd McShay:How early? In the second round.

1:31:30Bill Simmons:Because that's the second round.

1:31:32Todd McShay:There you go. Yeah. So you'd love Jeremy Bernard. You'd love Dajon Stribling. Omar Cooper Jr. At one point, we thought was going to be second. but it's going to be first. Those are those guys.

1:31:44Bill Simmons:And then there's the other, there's the sixth type, which is the guy, what's his name, Brazil Jr.? Yeah. It's one of those like, you fall in love and or you're getting fired. One of those picks. Yeah. Depending on how high you go. It's a lottery ticket, yeah. Yeah. But he just seems, the highlights for him are awesome. Awesome. Yeah.

1:32:03Todd McShay:You're like, whoa. And then the Trey Lance's brother is another one like that. Tall, four threes, all of it. Yeah.

1:32:09Bill Simmons:The one guy I would never take is just, this dude's super fast and we'll figure out the rest.

1:32:14Todd McShay:The Pats took that guy 20 times. Yeah. Well, the Raiders used to take him every year. Then there's the Bengals, John Ross. Yeah, that was a good one. Was it Devin? What was the name of the Jets? The Jets took one.

1:32:28Bill Simmons:Well, in the 80s, this guy used to go all the time. Yeah. They used to, the Raiders and the Jets. Who was the guy the Jets had that one time? They took him in the top four. Oh, shoot. Remember him? is Johnny Lamb Jones. Okay. That's grateful. That's insane. It's like, he's really fast. That's about it. Yeah. We've had those. Yeah, there's a lot of those. I think we're getting better at not taking those guys too high. It's like, oh, he runs a 4-2. Cool. Historically, they don't do. They just don't do low.

1:32:58Todd McShay:The fastest guy at the combine is like 10 % chance of you hitting on where they actually drop.

1:33:03Bill Simmons:Who's your chip on the shoulder receiver this year? Because that guy hits 100 % of the time. The guy who's just angry that he's not being mentioned with better guys and produced everywhere he went it could be

1:33:13Todd McShay:jeremy bernard it could be the alabama guy who wasn't even the best receiver by by everyone's measure at alabama yeah um yeah ryan williams just disappeared in the second round yeah yeah i don't i i just don't get it because all i hear about it's it's the same conversation we have these conversations we talk about how speed isn't as important as you think when you get down to that range. Like Jeremy Bernard, all he does is make plays on tape, man. Like all he does is make plays. Yeah. He's best player on that team last year. I mean, and people are like, eh, I don't know. I don't know. He's not dynamic.

1:33:46Yeah, he doesn't make... Which he isn't,

1:33:47Todd McShay:but if you fit him right in the right system, he's got a chance to be, you know, an 80 catch a year guy.

1:33:55Bill Simmons:If I was the wide receiver draft specialist, I would just want guys that got open on the tape that I was watching. And caught the ball. Yeah. Get open. Did you get open? Did you catch it when they threw it to you? It sounds so easy. It's so easy. It's so overcomplicating. Those guys about like, he's amazing in traffic. It's like, cool. No, thanks.

1:34:11Todd McShay:Antonio Williams is one from Clemson. He just gets open.

1:34:14Bill Simmons:Yep. He gets open. Is there a beloved running back for you in the second, third, fourth rounds that you're just to commit? Jonah Coleman. Okay. Maurice Jones Drew. That's what he's built like. He is a short, low to the ground. I love those guys. He dances too much.

1:34:29Todd McShay:Yeah. He danced behind a Washington offensive line that wasn't great. and like i get joe he just he his twitch and his build and his contact balance like i think he's going to be a really good pro second round fourth yeah oh wow yeah yeah and who's your who's your

1:34:47Bill Simmons:tyler shuck this year i mean colpate mcshay fucking nailed that last year oh yeah you talked

1:34:53Todd McShay:about him on my pod so you're still with him yeah you might be able to get him late third early fourth man are you in on this no not at all good and he looks like mcshay would sit there all year long and tell you about how important snaps are we're getting like yeah texts from everyone this is why i would hire a team is busting his balls all year long about like how many snaps how many snaps and then we get into the process and garrett nussmeyer is the greatest even though he doesn't have that many snaps and he pulls this guy out from the fc the watered down fcs yeah where all the guys have left for better teams and and bryce lance who's the best athlete on the field is running around like it's backyard football and this lefty who's playing running back two years ago was also going to be the next great quarterback.

1:35:34He called him better than Carson Wentz, right? You said he was a better prospect than Carson Wentz? I think, yeah. I think he has better traits. Sometimes you can just get a lot of confidence after you hit one of these.

1:35:43Bill Simmons:Like, this might be your heat check moment.

1:35:45Todd McShay:Post-Shuck? I'm rolling.

1:35:47Bill Simmons:You're just trying to make the magic happen again. Yep. Dart and Shuck last year. Give me Taylor Greene. I love Shuck. I don't know how many years he's going to play because he takes huge hits and he doesn't care. And he starts the same way. The history's not good either. Chuck gets up every time. Oh. Or at least he did last season, but I liked him. He's a tough, he's a tough, I just,

1:36:06Todd McShay:I,

1:36:06Bill Simmons:yeah. All right, so you're playing this week. Yes. We are going to be doing shows all week. We're going to be live on Netflix. Yep. During the first round Thursday night. Oh,

1:36:15Todd McShay:I wanted to run this by you.

1:36:16Bill Simmons:Yeah. No, it's not,

1:36:17Todd McShay:not my idea. It actually came from Rich Eisen. I'm just going to be honest. The, instead of the chime from ESPN, the, yeah, point of players picked. Oh,

1:36:28Bill Simmons:dude, the Netflix noise? Yes. That's a good idea. Right? You like it?

1:36:31Todd McShay:I don't know. We'd have to find out from the guys. I'm looking in the control room. They were working on it. But I just wanted to... That's a really good idea. Right? Right? Yeah. The NFL draft is live on Netflix.

1:36:41Bill Simmons:I feel like I'm about to watch a true crime documentary. But no, it'll be the next pick. With all the stuff that he asked you, were you worried when he said, I want to run something by you on your show? I mean, with McShay, you've got to hold on your seat at all times. Right. Like, yeah. This should be good. where we're going. That's fair. No, the Netflix time is good though. That actually is pretty doable. So we got Thursday night, Friday night live. Then we'll do a Saturday like wrapping up the whatever. And then...

1:37:04Todd McShay:And then Sunday we do the big 32 team so it lasts the offseason so you can kind of, yeah, get the deep dive in that. And Monday we're in taping the way too early mock draft and then we're out of your hair.

1:37:18Bill Simmons:Don't forget to do the redo of last year's mock draft. I think that's a good idea. Dan Calder, you got that? In the lead up, right? Not now, but in the lead up. No, like just when you need evergreen content for when it's kind of dying in the spring.

1:37:30Todd McShay:Yeah, I think it's great. Yeah.

1:37:31Bill Simmons:I love it. All right. Good to see you guys. Thanks for coming on. Good to see you. Thanks.

1:37:34Todd McShay:Yeah.

1:37:35Bill Simmons:And now it's time for today's With the Assist segment presented by State Farm. On the court, you can't expect everything to go as planned, but that's when your teammates come in. Because when you know someone's there, you have the confidence to take on whatever comes next. And we've seen some pretty iconic teammate combinations. My favorite was Bird and McHale in the 80s for the Celtics. Three titles, 81, 84, 86. The best forward combo I think we've ever had. Complimented each other perfectly. Both guys' bodies broke down by the late 80s, but we had an incredible ride for them and they really complemented each other perfectly.

1:38:09Bill Simmons:Life's no different. Unexpected things happen. You want to know someone's there to help. Like how Larry Bird was there to help Kevin McHale. That's where State Farm comes in. They've got easy to use digital tools like the State Farm app but neighborhood State Farm agents when you want to talk to a real person. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer, availability, and eligibility vary by state. This episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by Spectrum Business. Fast, reliable internet means everything for your business.

1:38:39Bill Simmons:And even this podcast, that's why I trust Spectrum Business. They keep companies of all sizes connected with internet, advanced Wi-Fi, phone, TV, mobile services, plus 24-7 US-based support millions of business owners already trust Spectrum Business. So visit spectrum.com slash business to learn more. Restrictions apply. Service is not available in all areas. This episode is brought to you by Panda Express. It's not always easy to show love, but there is one way to express how you feel. Food. And what better way to say I love you than with Panda Express's delicious, authentically cooked American Chinese cuisine.

1:39:16Bill Simmons:Whether it's eating with someone you love or while watching the team you love, you can pick from tasty options like orange chicken, honey walnut shrimp, Kung Pao chicken, and black pepper sirloin steak. Have you eaten yet? Order now or visit a Panda Express near you. With Van Lathan, we're in the Ringer tailgate set. You saw the Michael Jackson movie last night. We did rewatchables together. We taped rewatchables for next week. We did Ghostbusters. And then you left to go see Michael Jackson, a movie that ends in 1989. With Bat, yeah, with Bat. with a live performance of Bad in London. I'm going to try not to spoil as much movie as you guys can go out and see the movie for yourself.

1:39:55Well, we know what happened to Michael Jackson. We do. We do. But, you know, there's still some things in there that I think people are going to be interested in seeing. Like what? The performance of Jafar Jackson in the movie is a revelation. He's phenomenal as Michael Jackson.

1:40:10Bill Simmons:Is there any relation? I know nothing. I've read nothing. I know nothing. Okay. Jermaine's son. So Jermaine's son. Jermaine Jackson's son plays Michael Jackson, which in some ways probably some like weird cosmic justice for Jermaine Jackson you know there wasn't always a did he need justice what no he didn't but what I'm saying is that they at times Jermaine and Michael didn't have like the best relationship or whatever but you know they're brothers so that's what happens in family but yeah so he plays Michael Jackson he dances like Michael Jackson he embodies the spirit of Michael Jackson and honestly he nails it when I say he nails it he nails it to a degree that like a Hugh Jackman Wolverine type nail in it.

1:40:49He really nails Michael Jackson in the movie. And it's a shame because the movie is an abomination. Abomination? Yeah. Okay, so why? So I have to, you guys know me, I always star in love. Home of Domingo, great. Neil Long, great. Jafar Jackson, great. It's not a serious movie. It's not a serious movie. It's a movie about somebody who we all love to pieces. love Michael Jackson to pieces, right? He is almost like a mythical character, not even like a human being. And that's the way the movie treats him. The movie treats him like a mythical character.

1:41:27Bill Simmons:Don't all of these music hagiographies treat the people that way? Like Elton John, Freddie Mercury. Like I'm kind of used to this with my biopics for movies. Yeah, to a degree, you're not wrong, which is why I realized something while I was watching Michael. the biopic is dead. The biopic as, to me, the biopic and maybe even the biographical documentary as a storytelling tool, I think is gone. I would say both are, I've been saying this for a while. We saw this happen with books. Books used to be, they would do biographies about people that people would participate in. And sometimes it would be pretty hard hitting.

1:42:09Bill Simmons:You know, maybe the person would have regretted participating at all. And then eventually that shifted to the autobiography. And almost every time when somebody does the autobiography, it's like, all right, I'm going to take this with an entire salt shaker of salt, not just one grain. I'm going to just assume this is this person's version. It's going to be very flattering to them. They're going to remember the things they want to remember, not be that candid about the things maybe they don't want to talk about. And that's just what I'm getting. and in documentaries for a while they felt pretty you kind of felt like you were getting all the sides of the stories and something shifted with that in the last 10 years yeah I think the streamers had something to do with it in terms of the amount of people that were doing biopics on themselves while they were still around I think or the estate that controls the estate that controls it when you look at this movie though there's like right off the bat there's a storytelling issue here the movie has no story There's no story to the movie.

1:43:04Bill Simmons:Well, wasn't the famous, the story was that they did it a certain way and the estate made them change everything, right? I mean, this has been a long time. I want to make sure people understand. I am not complaining about this movie or down on the film because the movie didn't go into some of the more controversial aspects of Michael Jackson's life. Controversial. Yeah. So, hey. That's the word we're going to use? Okay. Got it. The sexual assault allegations against Michael Jackson. Oh, we can say that as well. Let's say that. Great. I'm not tripping because the movie didn't get into that. It because I didn't expect it to is that it doesn't really interrogate anything about Michael Jackson really that seriously.

1:43:40Like the movie that what you were supposed to come away from is that Michael Jackson is like divinely touched. Extraordinarily good. I thought that anyway. Well, but what I'm saying is as a musician or a person? No, no, no. As a person. Oh, like as a person. And the movie goes through a great length, great lengths to saint him, to make him look like it every time there's a kid. Michael Stassard, a kid, every time. And you see people looking at him as he's doing these good works, and they seem to be, like, arrested by his purity. It's really laid on thick. Now, look, once again, the same magical space that Michael Jackson exists in for a lot of people, he exists in that space for me.

1:44:29And I understand that, that people want to kind of live in that. But you got to give me something, right? You got to give me a real analysis of where the genius and the drive and all of that stuff came from. And the movie just doesn't take any of that seriously.

1:44:45Bill Simmons:Yeah. All right. So if the estate's like, here's all the stuff that's off limits, but you can make a movie anyway. I'd probably have focused it thriller to when his hair gets caught on fire and he starts getting weird. and he becomes so famous that he basically can't do anything. He becomes a recluse. On top of the fact that the hair thing seemed like it was really damaging to him. He got burned. He felt like he was disfigured. Led to a lot of the stuff that his skin changing, all the plastic surgery. That seemed to be the tipping point moment. Combined with the victory tour when him and his brothers went out and they bankrupted the Sullivan family, basically.

1:45:23Bill Simmons:But just that whole era, I just would have centered it there versus... Stopping in 1989 is insane, Bill. Why was that the stopping point? I think you know why. I mean, if you... Why not stop in 1987? Why'd they pick 89? Well, if you go to 1997, you can't not talk about... But I'm saying, why not just stop in 87? Just stop with Bad. Oh, stop before Bad. They get to him on a world tour. It's like him doing a solo world tour, which was a big deal for him. He wanted to do a solo world tour, so they stopped with him doing the Bad World Tour. Here's the frustrating thing. Everything that you just talked about, that's all in the movie.

1:46:01All of it's in the movie. His plastic surgery stuff is in the movie. Vitiligo stuff is in the movie. The burning of the hair is probably the thing that the movie gets the most right, right? Interesting. Because of the reason why he's doing that commercial, obviously at the behest of his father. He wants to go back out on tour with his brothers, like what it cost him and how him being burned actually starts his relationship with painkillers and stuff like that, which we all know would eventually take his life. So that sounds interesting to me. But it doesn't, it just, it's just on the screen. Yeah.

1:46:39Okay, it's, there's nothing. So it's just like, hey, like I have vitiligo, I have to take this medicine for it. Like Michael, at one point says he doesn't like his nose, the next thing he comes home and he's had a nose job.

1:46:49Bill Simmons:Yeah. Right? There was a movie called The Jackson Family and American Dream, a miniseries from the early 90s, right? I saw it. Okay. That movie treats Michael Jackson as a real, fragile, wandering mind of genius in a real serious way. There's a scene of him looking in the mirror, talking about the fact that his face is breaking out, talking to his mother about his nose. And you get the feeling of how displaced he felt in his body at some time, right? And it's a serious scene. It's like a real scene. Or when Motown 25 is about to happen and Michael goes, I'll do it with my brothers. I'll perform with my brothers, but I want a solo spot.

1:47:32It's a powerful moment of him stepping away. This movie just can't get to any of that stuff. It's on the screen, but not really interrogated in any way. But I do know what is interrogated. A weird scene with Miles Teller as the lawyer. Right. Where Michael Jackson is - Vice-Basth Teller in this movie. But bro, as the fucking, I'm sitting next to Jomie. I'm like, we're watching the scene and there's this weird scene where all of these guys are sitting around and he fucking talks to Miles Teller's character and he's like, everybody get out the room. You stay. You're my guy. And then they're in the movie.

1:48:07And I'm like, yo, whoever that guy is. Right, he greenlit this movie. He has something to do with this movie because this scene doesn't make any fucking sense to be in a movie about Michael Jackson. Now this guy pops in and you got an A-list star playing him. It didn't make any sense whatsoever. And then at the end of the movie, I'm looking, and it says, yeah, look, producer, John Branco, whatever his name is, whatever. So, like, I don't mean to trash it because there are, I think that people are going to enjoy it because you're going to take a trip down memory lane. But it's just, it was just, like, glossy bullshit.

1:48:41Bill Simmons:Right. Well, and Antoine Fuqua is the director. Yeah. So when he, he probably signed up for something that he felt like was going to be a completely different movie and now has to pretend this was the movie he made, which is clearly not the case. I mean, the movie isn't poorly made. I mean, it's got all, it's got like top. It's well done gloss. Well done gloss, but like, I don't know. People are going to hear this and they're going to be like, how could Van be this upset about it? Because Van is the one that year after year goes into the theater to watch some of the most ham-handed superhero shit that's ever existed, right?

1:49:22It occurred to me. Yeah. I held out a difference or I made a distinction here. This is the MCU-ification of a biopic. This is the, we know that we have you, so we don't have to do anything else, which is the criticism about the MCU that exists now, about superhero movies that exist now. You signed up for this, so it's not our fault. Hey, you're in here to watch action figures fly around.

1:49:50Bill Simmons:Yeah. And that's all we got to give you. Earlier on, I think the exciting thing about like those movies was that they did not do that. They played around with genre. They took chances. They did other stuff, but it got to the point to where they knew they had us. And so we're going to watch whatever it was. And now there's a lot of people that are disillusioned with them. When I go to see a movie about this type of person at that, this type of impact, you want to come away feeling like, you know, what made that guy tick? So what would be the perfect IP that you would want to sign up for for Michael Jackson?

1:50:21Bill Simmons:Because for me, it would be like a 10-hour documentary that was like warts and all. Like, let's go. Let's dive into this dude. There are two different movies. One movie would be this same movie, but just about the making of Thriller. So you confine it to like 82 to 85, that's it. Just about the making of Thriller. By the way, that's what they should have done. Right. Like when I say just... Because that takes them off the hook with everything that happens in the 90s. You can flash back to stuff that happens. We really don't necessarily need the whole Jackson 5 journey. It is one of the most famous journeys that's ever existed in Super Stardom.

1:50:56But the making of Thriller is very special. It's a special time in music. It's a special time in culture. And it's a special time where this person reaches their zenith, like an athlete. What was the season that Michael Jordan just became the guy that everybody was waiting for Michael Jordan to become? like that doesn't happen in culture as much as we think that they try to do that with the

1:51:17Bill Simmons:springsteen movie and it was weird they picked nebraska which i'm a springsteen guy nebraska was a really interesting choice but it was basically they told the whole story to set up what happens with born in the usa which then then don't go into so it's like we assume you already know what happened with born in the usa this part's more interesting it's like hey you know would have been really interesting born in the USA. But with that, and if you go granular, if you get deep into like what Michael had to sacrifice, what he was going through, the pressure he was under, you see how... Oh, a child star.

1:51:51That piece of art. He's in the 70s cocaine era. He's at Studio 54. All of that stuff.

1:51:56Bill Simmons:Everyone's trying to get in with him. And just after him, what it means to be like the biggest star in the world. That's one. Number two, an interesting story that no one talks about is... the just ridiculously amazing story of how Michael Jackson came to control the Beatles catalog. Right. Like, not just, hi, I'm cool with Paul McCartney. Paul has the idea. Michael is shrewd enough to go and work him on the idea. Just everything that had to happen for him to get that, because that ends with a deal for him to have to perform in Australia, right? and him performing in Australia one of the accusers ended up, so there's a whole bunch of things that happened I mean you don't necessarily have to get into that, there's a whole bunch of things that happened with that and it's one of the more, that is a story about the genius the business genius and the cultural genius of Michael Jackson I would also throw in the Lisa Marie Presley wedding it's the third movie I want to say I just don't know what happened with that that was one of those, nobody knew what was going on the entire time we still don't know would happen we don't and i remember they came out on mtv and it's like no one thought this would last and my dad was like it hadn't lasted what are you like what are you talking about it hadn't lasted yet i think with some of these things the biggest things we've ever had which is basically like elvis the beatles michael jackson these things come around content wise every few years like the b it happened on the beatles a couple years ago when that that thing the behind the scenes peter jackson documentary that was awesome yeah and it was like oh the beatles are having a moment again and then it goes and then six years later something else will happen I think that's happening with Michael Jackson now I know everybody doesn't like the movie but I think it's going to be the catalyst to a re-examination of all the stuff he did because what really happens is the new generations who don't you know like my son when my son was like five he didn't know backstory of Michael Jackson he just knew he liked the songs and the kids get into it and it's a generational thing that never stops and I think this goes to a bigger point, which we were talking about when Kanye was here at SoFi a couple weeks ago, about people being able to separate the art from other stuff that may have happened.

1:54:14Bill Simmons:And how you can compart... If you like the music, you like the music, and you can just put it there, and you can kind of push the other stuff this way. And that whole dialogue about whether that's something we should... Should we be that way? What the heart wants. We don't have any choice. I mean, just if we're being honest, when I say we don't have any choice, what I mean is like I can choose if I want to not to listen to Michael Jackson music or to whatever. What I can't do with him specifically, not all the artists that have been involved in fuck shit are like this. but with Michael Jackson it's so tied to the most formative years of my brain that if I see him or I hear the music my body reflexively does something right you hear Billie Jean and your legs just start moving it is uncontrollable there's nothing you can do now you can make this decision to talk about things responsibly and make sure you hold space for victims and make sure you have these conversations with the gravitas and the weight that they deserve right you can do all that nobody wants to do that when they're on Spotify on a walk at two in the afternoon or working out And they're just like, fuck it, I'm going to put my Michael Mix.

1:55:23It's true. And so the reality of all of this, and by the way, I just want to say this real quick. And this is, you know, people can feel the way it went about this. I worked at TNZ for a very long time. Yeah. I worked at TNZ for a long time. So the people that I know that have looked into Michael Jackson's various cases, the people that I know have looked into them in a really granular way, like in a really detailed way. looking at his situation is interesting because I have to be real real observation the people that I know the deeper you get into all of the stuff that happened with him the more questions you actually have about whether or not he ever was actually guilty of something the news director at TMZ back in the day was like wasn't I'm not talking about he's not from South Baton Rouge like me he was a white boy from Orange County swore up and down.

1:56:18He's like, man, I have all of these documents. He didn't do anything. Yeah. All of this stuff. And so there is, there is this thing with him in all of his cases. He beat it in court. There's this thing with him to where the more you get into it, people that I know that really have deep knowledge of everything that happened, they look at it and they go, they don't think that he did anything. Now, maybe that's me coping. That could be me coping. But the reality of the situation is that is true from people that I know that have really looked into it. That's how I feel about McFrabill.

1:56:55I'm like, man, the guy just wanted some rest. The other six people, they were there. It's a great resort. Yeah, it's a great resort. It seems like a relaxation weekend. But to your point, though, the movie, the first thing I did when I got home was put on Michael Jackson shit on YouTube. The first thing I did. But even that, if you do a biopic about Michael Jackson and Jafar Jackson, once again, in the performance and in the dance, it's great. If you do a biopic about Michael Jackson, the best parts can't be like making Thriller or performing on stage. Because if I want that, I could just go to YouTube and watch that.

1:57:35So there has to be other parts of the movie that aren't oriented around the music and around someone doing a Michael Jackson, essentially an impression. and that movie this movie just doesn't have that

1:57:46Bill Simmons:well apparently there's an incredible Elvis documentary right now that somebody spent a lot of time on Baz Luhrmann I think okay and it was like behind the scenes Vegas they found all this footage and it's amazing and if that had come out in like 1989 it felt like it would have been the biggest movie in the world now it's 2026 Elvis has been dead for 49 years I don't know if he has the same hold on people under 50 I think like people in their 70s and 80s might care I wonder when Michael Jackson is going to hit that point. I would argue with like in the Spotify era where people are just downloading music, you might not hit that point for like 40 more years.

1:58:20Bill Simmons:Yeah. Where people are just like, there might be some five-year-old right now in a car on the way home from school. They're listening to Thriller and they don't know any better. They don't know anything other than the songs they're listening to. You know, this might be the old man talking, but, and Elvis is a, you know, ridiculously important American pop culture figure. It just feels different with Michael Jackson. I don't know. I think that's generational. It probably is. Everything culturally expires. Everything culturally expires. Because it's the same thing for like Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Frank Sinatra.

1:58:58Bill Simmons:There are these people that had these runs. But then as the years pass, there's nobody there to kind of keep the torch going with the flames. You know what I mean? Ain't none of them people got a thriller though. That's true. Elvis was way up there though. Elvis was the biggest star we had in the world. I know. For years. But that's how we thought. Yeah. Then the biggest star came into the room. It's just different. You don't have to tell me. I was there. Michael's the biggest. He's the most talented, biggest star I've ever seen in my life. Right. Him doing the Motown 25 was probably the greatest non-sports TV moment I've ever had.

1:59:33And so I remember watching that just over and over in all of the videos. Michael has so many different eras. Like, you can't really put it all in one biopic because it's like, his life was like, it had like three or four sequels, right? Until he passed on. But...

1:59:48Bill Simmons:And a lot of analysis, too. Like, just long conversations with friends in high school about what does Mama Say, Mama Sa, Mama Pusa mean? Mama Pusa, yeah. Whatever that, whatever that, what do they mean? to me to me to me that genius like not just deserves but it requires special real examination examination but Ezra did that with Prince and we're never gonna see that either right but look once again I think that we're out of the era of biopics if we think what are the best biopics Rey was a great biopic right I actually I kind of like the Queen one I watched it again okay and I and why is it good because in the last 25 minutes it just is the live age show which I could watch on YouTube but it was really fun to watch as the movie usually it's the performances that make it outside of music biopics you want to relive the music and you want to see how people embody the character but like when I think about movies like Malcolm X like X with Spike Lee obviously different yeah but that's a guy that's a cultural deity deity to me the movie does not deify him at all the Johnny Cash movie doesn't deify him.

2:00:58That one I think is one of the best ones. Cole Miner's Daughter is really good. Like these movies are about people

2:01:04Bill Simmons:who have genius. But usually they work the best when it's people who have genius but also have a flaw or two flaws. Have a flaw or have a relationship that doesn't work or marry the wrong person, fall in love the wrong way or like whatever. Something that humanizes me. Tina Turner one was good too. Right. That one was phenomenal. Yeah. That is probably that might be the best one that's the best music biopic that I can remember it's phenomenal but it had a villain had a villain this one has a villain Joe Jackson is the villain yeah he seems Joe Jackson seems not a great guy but even in this movie it's made by his family and you can tell you can feel the conflict in this movie yeah the estate makes the movie they're telling this story you can feel them holding back well it's heavily reported they had to change just about everything about the movie right as they're making but even in this version like okay you think Miles Tower is like hey Miles hurt you have a new movie out yeah well yeah I guess filmed it a long time ago I'm just saying man if you like when you do it commit like you know blood on the dance floor show show how hard it was show the road he had to climb we agree but this will be the number one when it ends up on Amazon or wherever this will be the number one rental for like five straight weeks.

2:02:26I'm probably going to see it again.

2:02:27Bill Simmons:Yeah. I'm probably going to see it again just because like... I can't wait till the seventh time you see it when you talk yourself into it. I'm probably going to see it again. Do you know why? Do you really know why? Higher learning? No. I missed Michael Jackson. I missed him. Like, you guys, I'm just a regular person. So you guys get mad, whatever. I missed Michael Jackson. You missed the genius. I missed him. Like, I had missed him. This was the secret of the last dance with Michael Jordan. Same thing. You know what? I really miss this guy. Yep. that's why the biggest documentary right now that's sitting there, if it was done correctly is the Kobe doc, but it'll never happen because I think his wife just will never let it happen the way it could happen but I think that would have the same impact, so many people love Kobe that if they did that correctly it would be the same thing, you're like, you know what, I'm gonna watch that a fifth time, I really miss this guy yeah, and more to the point with Michael Jackson I missed the version of Michael Jackson that existed before I had to consider any of the others.

2:03:3080s Michael Jackson. I miss that guy. I miss just being able to have, I miss the feeling of unbridled joy that exists with me being dumb and not knowing. And like just not, that's super. Hulk Hogan, another one. Hulk Hogan. Like I used to, I used to, I used to rip the shirt being a Hulk. This is, you were a Hulkamaniac. I was a Hulkamaniac. Everyone was a Hulkamaniac. He probably wouldn't have liked you. No. He was a... He would not have liked you. He would not have liked me at all. He would not have liked me. He would have said it. Or he would have liked me until I tried to take his daughter out.

2:04:04He would have flipped. Then he would have flipped out. Anyway.

2:04:07Bill Simmons:I see what you mean about... My wife says this all the time. She'll be watching some movie or TV show that she's seen 1 ,700 times. And she's always like, I miss my friends. Yeah. Devor's Prada. I miss my friends. I'm going to hang out with them again. The Michael Jackson experience, same thing. I'm definitely going to see it I won't see it in the theater but I'm going to when it's out on rental I'm going to rent it no you should go see it in the theater you think? yeah go see it in the theater I like everyone that had any interest in the movie because the reviews have been brutal I have to keep it real the reviews have been hilarious they've been people are furious yeah they really hated it but at the same time the people that feel super connected to Michael Jackson are going right into defense mode I'm sure some of those people will be mad at me I'm encouraging people to go see the movie in the theater because I think I saw it in IMAX I think it plays best in the theater because you want to be a part of the concert experiences and things like that but yeah not to me a serious attempt at trying to tell a real story about somebody as consequential and as important so what's your Roger Ebert four stars how many do you go one and a half one and a half alright Van Lathan good to see you peace alright that's it for the podcast thanks to McShay and Mench thanks to Van Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well.

2:05:23I'm going to be back on this podcast

2:05:27Bill Simmons:on Thursday night after the NBA playoff games. We're going to be recording. I think Rob Mahoney is going to join me. Don't forget about Sean Fantasy's newsletter or Jordan Kahn's book or Legata or the Rewatchables Kindergarten Cop, which is up or Ghostbusters, which is coming next Monday. And I will see you on Thursday.

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