NBA Trade Deadline Reactions and Super Bowl Picks With Zach Lowe and Joe House

16:11Bill Simmons:Well, how high? Well, neither of us know the draft that well yet, but there's three guys plus I think Wilson and North Carolina would be my fourth. So if you did top five protected for this year and then unprotected in 27 plus a second pick at 29s. I don't know. But it's got to be something like that to get me to trade Zubats. I'll tell you this, Zach Lowe. Yeah. When he got scratched yesterday for personal reasons, which has become the new, uh-oh, what's going on here? I started getting real Celtic ideas.

16:41Joe House:I thought, didn't I read something that he had, like someone was having a kid? I thought I saw something about parental.

16:47Bill Simmons:Listen, when I see parentheses personal, I'm ready for a trade.

16:50Joe House:James Harden had some personal reasons this week.

16:54Bill Simmons:Well, I thought with the Celtics, because they downgraded from Simons to Vucevic from a salary standpoint. And they had been trying to trade Simons for Zubats with a pick for a while and that the Clippers didn't want to take on the money. But Vucevic for Zubats actually works under the cap and made more sense. And I was wondering, I know they've liked him.

17:13Joe House:First of all, I just want to note that as the spouse of a Balkan, You just nailed both Zubats and Vucevic, which for you is, we've made progress. And I want to applaud you for the progress and the learning that you've done. The price still has not come in yet. I'm just refreshing Twitter, which is hard to do with this all in real time.

17:33Bill Simmons:But, you know, Zach, I'm glad you shouted me out there because obviously everybody knows about my pronunciation dyslexia. And I've butchered names from time to time all over the place. But the Croatians and the Serbians, I've worked hard. and really what you have to remember all the time is just put the itch in the end. It's not an ick, it's an itch.

17:52Joe House:That's why when they Americanize, like Greg Popovich, they all add H's at the end of their names to make that clear to the dumb Americans among us that this is how you say our names. Anyway, Zubats is a pacer. And let me ask you - Wait, can we talk about the pacer thing quick

18:06Bill Simmons:about Zubats, Siakam, Halliburton, Nembhard, 2026 Lottery, Bic, DBD, McConnell? all that's like send me the eastern odds now for 27 that could be a nice team well we're forgetting

18:20Joe House:like obi toppins missed the entire season basically smith is still here um he spent the young guys like jairus walker and ben shepherd and isaiah jackson haven't made the jumps you'd hope but like we just went through a top nine that we know save for zoo bots fits like way adds up to way more than the sum of its parts like we know that that's a thing right so that's a hell of a team Can I ask you one Clippers question?

18:44Bill Simmons:Yeah. What the hell is going on? Am I ever going to go to another game? We got 42 minutes left.

18:52Joe House:Any universe in which you see Kawhi in play in the next 42 minutes? Pistons? I mean, he could fit. That's the thing about Kawhi. He could fit anywhere. He's, you know, an apex.

19:03Bill Simmons:But with that said, the wow trade is the Pistons. If they did Harris and expiring and two first-rounders or whatever. If you're just talking about an atomic bomb on the East, that would be the atomic bomb because he's been one of, I think, the five or six best players in the league for the last seven weeks.

19:22Joe House:What if the Sixers traded Paul George and all their draft assets back for Kawhi? Oh, my God.

19:30Bill Simmons:That's where, if you're, if Ballmer's looking like if there's some big suspension coming up combined with him trying to drive the fan base away, that would be the trade to do it. I don't get how you get Zubats from the Clippers. I don't understand that at all.

19:47Joe House:Well, the Pacers control all of their first-round picks. All the Siakam picks have been moved, have been conveyed or sent or whatever the right word is.

19:55Bill Simmons:Let me ask you this. Who is going to be the ninth and tenth playoff teams in the West now?

20:00Joe House:This season?

20:01Bill Simmons:Because right now, if you go nine down, Clippers are nine, Portland's 10, Memphis is 11. They just gutted their team. Dallas 12, Utah 13, New Orleans 14, and Sacramento 15. And the Clippers have 23 wins. Utah is 16. Are we even going to have a ninth and a tenth seed? Is everybody just going to pass? Can you just punt on the play-in?

20:25Joe House:Well, Portland should start playing the parade route now. They're in. By default, they're going to get in the play-in tournament. And this zooms out to, I mean, I know you want to talk more about some of these East teams. but one of the winners of this trade deadline for you for me for the world at large is the Charlotte Hornets who are looking at the bulls above them like I think you're kind of tanking the Hawks you made some weird Kaminga trade like the Hornets are going to pass Chicago and get into the play-in and Chicago appears to kind of just be an asset accumulation give us all your second round picks and Dillingham and whatever and kind of pulling the ripcord on this season, except it's too late for them to meaningfully tank this season because all the teams you listed are so far ahead of them in the tank standings that, like, and the teams that they're, like, closer to, Memphis and Dallas, they're also going to start tanking.

21:23Joe House:So the Bulls are, I guess, tanking with a longer lens because they can't tank so deeply this season unless they're just like, well, look, Dallas won the lottery from the 10th spot last year. Maybe we'll do it too.

21:36Bill Simmons:the Bulls were number two on my I have no idea what you're doing I was waiting for it I was waiting they were number two they were right behind Giannis I have no idea what they're doing I really liked Anthony Simons I was genuinely sad when the Celtics traded him because I liked him I thought he was a really nice fit with the uh I thought the three guards on Jalen Brown were the

21:54Joe House:key to the team Matherin is going to the Clippers by the way as part of this deal not a shocker the lack of any extension talks before the season sort of telegraphed that he was not a fit in how they wanted to play and build and the Clippers are always even when they're making moves from a position of some weakness they're always going sideways grabbing something interesting

22:18Bill Simmons:um you know that he's been available for a couple months I was wondering if he was going to be I was wondering he was in that Kobe White, DeSoon Mu, Alvarado these guys that it was like Like, oh, shit, if they end up on a contender, that's going to be nice. But Bulls, I have no idea what they're doing. At one point, they had seven or eight guards. They've gone sideways.

22:38Joe House:They still have seven or eight guards.

22:40Bill Simmons:They're under the tax, finally. I know the Bulls fans. I know if you're a Bulls fan, you're going to sleep at night going, man, I just hope we can get under the tax and go 40 and 42 again. That would be great.

22:50Joe House:The last dance, part 11, the year we got under the tax at the deadline.

22:55Bill Simmons:They cut the cord with Vooch. They were like, we're finally good. Thanks for everything. Thanks for what the secret worst trade of this decade. I don't know what they're doing. The moves together just look like one of the Zodiac letters. You're just like, what is this? What are all these symbols? I don't understand. You got rewatchables on the brain. Yeah. We have to take a break and then I want to do the rest of the I have no idea where you're doing rankings and hopefully we'll have some trades. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel, I know it's last call for football, but did you know with FanDuel's touchdown jackpot, you can win a share of$6 million in bonus bets?

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24:12Bill Simmons:Opt in, must apply profit boost token on select market prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct first or last TD pick. Bonus issued as non-retrawable bonus bet should expire 21 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. GAM, problem, call 1-800-GAMB, or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, a superior beer that, by the way, is worth playing for. So what do I mean by that? Well, everything's a competition these days. Why couldn't you put some ultras on the line?

24:52Bill Simmons:Come on. Everybody loves a good competition. As my friends and family know, I love competing on everything. How long I can get to the movie theater? How long will it take? Can I get home before everybody? How long can I get to and from a Lakers game? I'm kind of a maniac. I might have to put some ultras on the line now for this. I'll bet you two ultras I can get home from the Lakers game in less than five stoplights. Whatever you want to do, the stakes are even higher right now with McLoB Ultra's latest challenge because again, not just beer on the line, we're talking pride. We're also talking tickets to some of the biggest sporting events in 2026.

25:30Bill Simmons:Enter now at michlobaltra.com slash ultra instructor. Michlobaltra, ultra instructor, no purchase necessary. Open to us residents 21 plus begins on January 30th, 2026 ends on February 22nd, 2026. See official rules at michlobaltra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. All right, we're back. I'm going to have to add the Clippers today. I have no idea where you're doing rankings until we find out what this pick is. We were talking during the break, maybe it's top five protected 26, and if the Pacers end up moving in the top five and they get it, then maybe it's unprotected 27, and then some sort of swap in anywhere from 28 to 30, or there's got to be...

26:14Bill Simmons:I really like Zubats. I vote for All-NBA 13. team last year because I'd like to have a center. I wasn't going to get bullied into these positionless lineups. I thought he was a guy that could go into a war with some of the big guys in the league. And I also, there's a bigger trend here. And I think this is what the Pacers were trying to do. And I also think this is what the Celtics were thinking about with the Vucevic trade. It seems like everybody wants to get bigger. Everybody's worried about if you're actually going to be in a playoff series about situations where you're going against these double bigs.

26:45Bill Simmons:and you look at the Celtics in the East, every team they'd have to probably beat in a playoff series if they seriously think they can contend is going to be able to go bigger on them, right? Like you play the Pistons, they can play Dern and Stewart together. You play the Knicks, they can do Towns and Mitch together. You play Cleveland, they can do Mobley and Allen together. And I just feel like the Celtics with the Vucevic flexibility with Cata and with Garza and Tatum when he comes back, at least they have some size. And maybe the Pacers looked at that and said,

27:13Joe House:You forgot Murray Boyles and Mamu.

27:16Bill Simmons:Okay. I like Murray Boyles. But maybe the Pacers looked at that and were like, we just got to get in on this because we have Hal Burton coming back and we have a chance to contend. I have no idea what you're doing rankings. Number three for me is the Hawks.

27:30Joe House:You want the details that are coming in, by the way. We're live.

27:33Bill Simmons:We're live. Yeah, we're live.

27:35Joe House:Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, two first-round picks and one second-round pick for Zubats and Cody Brown. We don't still know the details on the picks. We don't know the year. Can I say one more thing about the Bulls? Yeah. As long as we're doing that. Here's what I don't get about the Bulls. I understand. I talked to people around the league today. I texted. I just spam texted. What are the Bulls doing? And some people are like, what? It's obvious what they're doing. They're accumulating assets. They got, I think, nine second-round picks in these various trades. They got Rob Dillingham, second draft kind of guy for them who will get a chance to play.

28:07Joe House:They didn't get him in a soda. And they have massive amounts of cap space the next two summers. I understand. That they won't spend. I understand all that. My thing is like, Desumnu is 26 and Kobe White is 25. They're both good. Desumnu is like really, really good. And so they traded like mid-young-ish, mid-career guys. They traded an old guy in Vooch. So they traded all kinds of different players. Like, what kind of players do they want on their team? Like, what kind of team do they want?

28:38Bill Simmons:Younger, worse versions of the same guys they already had?

28:40Joe House:Yeah, they have Giddy and like what other piece here, Giddy and Buzelas, and like what other piece here is of major long-term interest to me? Like one of those guards couldn't have helped your team going forward? What kind of team are you trying to actually make here? Assets are great. Second rounders are helpful. The Wolves used a bunch of them to get Io DeSumano. Like I get it. But what are you doing with them?

29:03Bill Simmons:Well, I think Bulls fans have been asking this for 11 years. We have the details on the Zubats trade. It's a 26 first round pick. This is from Shams. It's protected one to four and 10 to 30.

29:15Joe House:So it's the double protection.

29:17Bill Simmons:So if it doesn't fall between five and nine, I guess it rolls over to the next year. And then it's also a 29 unprotected. Matherin, I like Isaiah Jackson. I'm in the Isaiah Jackson. I think he's got potential camp and they got Matherin. It's a pretty good trade. I would, that makes, that trade makes more sense to me. You have a chance to get five, six, seven, eight or nine in the draft to replace the pick you're giving to the Thunder, right? And now they could try to patch together with Lopez, with some small ball lineups. Maybe they're going to try to get one more center. So that makes more sense to me.

29:52Bill Simmons:Say that again.

29:53Joe House:It's one to four and 10 to 30. Yeah, basically if it's five,

29:57Bill Simmons:six, seven, eight or nine, what does it become

29:59Joe House:if it's 1-4?

30:01Bill Simmons:Well, my guess is usually when there's protections like that, it rolls over to 27, which is why 29 is unprotected. Right? So the Pacers are like probably keeping 26, but if we don't keep it, you get 27. Or you get it, or you get 27. That's a really interesting trade.

30:19Joe House:It's a good trade. 1-4 is a win for the Clippers, I think. I'm sure that the two sides negotiated really hard about that exact range of where that should end because you know the way the lottery works i mean who knows where indiana will finish there's going to be a better than 50 50 chance that that pick conveys well i mean we'll see how the 10th pick comes into it but like even the worst record guy the worst team in the league has like a 48 chance of getting the fifth pick and then And, you know, you go from there. Right. And it's going to be.

30:57Bill Simmons:Well, for the Pacers, it's a four. We've been saying it's a three person draft and then a drop off basically for most of the college season. But I think that North Carolina kid is a really nice number four. It won't be better.

31:09Joe House:It'll be like 50 50. I'm doing math on the off the top of my head. Yeah.

31:14Bill Simmons:If I'm the Pacers, I want to protect my chance at also getting number four because worst case scenario, I get Wilson from Carolina. more I have no what you're doing rankings as we make for more trades the Kings they're just blanket in here I don't know what the Kings are doing I don't understand why they help save the Cavaliers 50 million dollars to get DeAndre Hunter still trying to figure that out

31:36Joe House:they got off Dennis Schroeder but they got on DeAndre Hunter and they gave up Keon Ellis in the process and they got Dennis Schroeder for reasons that nobody understood and then they got Russell Westbrook for more reasons that nobody understood who do you think is most sad rank the sadness levels if we go 29 minutes and there's no Kings trade. Rank who's most sad. Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan, Domas Sabonis.

32:02Bill Simmons:Oh, I don't think Zach Levine's sad at all. He's already opted into next year.

32:06Joe House:He's like,

32:08Bill Simmons:are there checks clearing?

32:09Joe House:Kings fans are number one, right? Just like, what?

32:12Bill Simmons:Kings fans won. Sabonis too. Sabonis is definitely too.

32:15Joe House:Sabonis is like, I just can't even believe this is my life now.

32:19Bill Simmons:So bonus is probably like, I thought I had a chance maybe to sneak over to Toronto, Portland, somewhere, anywhere. But literally anywhere. He signed the extension. My number five, I don't know what you're doing rankings is the Magic who have not made a trade yet. And I don't really understand what's going on with that team and the mix of guys they have. And then here's number six, Zach Lowe. Okay. Second round picks. Why are teams so excited about these? It seems like people want them because other teams are dumb enough to trade them. But then when you go through basketball reference and look through all the guys taking them in the second round every year, you got a one in 10 chance of hitting on somebody.

32:57Bill Simmons:Usually it's a guy that was drafted by a team in the second round and two years later ends up on another team like Diabate. Very rarely is this an awesome pick. And it seems like some of these teams fall for it every year and they can't get enough of the second rounders. I don't understand it.

33:13Joe House:Well, it's like the Boston-Chicago trade. the Bulls got New Orleans second rounder, I think. Right. Yeah. And so that's going to be the 31st, 32nd, 34 picking.

33:24Bill Simmons:I get it with that. But what do I care about having even that?

33:27Joe House:And the NBA geekery, which is, I am a part of obviously, but a lot of it just does. But what a general, that's a gem of a trade gem of an asset. And it turns out to be nothing. And it turns like these second round picks, they're nice to like hoard. Cause if you get a lot of them, you can do it. Minnesota did and just throw six of them at one player. And then you look, it's like Denver is 20, 27. That's not very good. And like, it's like, you know, I think people fetishize them a little bit, but if you get enough, you can weaponize them for like one. Can you get over the goal line kind of trade like Minnesota made?

34:00Joe House:But can we go back to Orlando?

34:02Bill Simmons:Yeah.

34:05Joe House:I don't like they're 25 and 24 and some of their losses have been recently like the funk level hovering over their team is like a DEFCON 2 funk level at this point. Obviously, they're waiting for Franz to come back and crossing their fingers that Franz, who is I think their best player, ties everything together and all of a sudden they're the team that everybody thought they would be, that they thought they would be. I think that's a little pie in the sky at this point. I think their roster is going to look... Their team could look very different next year. Coach, roster, everything if they don't turn this around.

34:41Joe House:But they're also... And I'm trying to think, like, what are the teams that lost, that feel like they lost because the Giannis thing got kicked to the summer? And what are the teams that won because the Giannis thing got kicked to the summer? And I want to include Orlando on the latter list because you know that Paolo for Giannis, Paolo and a bunch of stuff for Giannis is like one of my favorite fake trades. But the Magic don't have a bunch of stuff anymore. And the bloom is off the rose with Paolo. Like at the beginning of the season, if you were not poison-pilled by the arcane cap rules, that would have been like, whoa, Milwaukee, that's the best they could have done in a Giannis trade.

35:20Joe House:They got the best player. And now it's like, we'd much rather have Evan Mobley and probably a couple other kind of guys than that. Paolo's a pretty good prize for Giannis. I don't disagree. I'm just saying it's... How old is he?

35:32Bill Simmons:Like 23? 22?

35:34Joe House:I think after this season, if it ended today, it would be a lot more like, all right, well, they're going to have to sort of figure out how Paolo works and what to do with him. Boys before the season, it would have been like an explosion of like a plus plus trade grades for the bucks and blah, blah, blah.

35:48Bill Simmons:Right. I think you're right. Um, the only other team I had for the, I have no idea what you're doing, but I actually do have an idea what they're doing because the trade made sense is Kaminga and buddy healed for poor Zingas. The Warriors doing that. It's clear. They just had to get Kaminga. They just had to end the situation. That was it. Whatever it took to end the saga. And they're like, can we offer you Porzingis? He's basically hurt every year and has some mystery medical condition. And we have no idea how many games he's going to play. And they're like, done. Let's call it in. We don't even need picks.

36:26Joe House:That was my we're going to bed trade on East Coast time last night. That trade comes over at like 11.45 p.m. East Coast time. I'm like, Kaminga and Heald for Porzingis? might be time for me to turn in. If we've reached this stage of the trade deadline, it might be time for you to. I'm just like, what happened here? Does Kaminga fit on the Hawks at all? No. Do they care if he fits on the Hawks at all? Why do they want Kaminga? What do they want him for? Probably to trade him again at some point. Porzingis, like, stretch five. The Warriors really need to stretch five. He doesn't play. It sucks that he doesn't play, but you can't pencil in Porzingis as like, well, this is how he fits in the lineup and they unlocks X, Y, and Z if he doesn't play.

37:06Bill Simmons:Well, we both liked the AD trade for the Wizards.

37:09Joe House:I think the AD trade is like a carnival. I kind of like, I'm like on a carnival, right? I don't know what's going on. I kind of like it. Sometimes I'm getting kind of scared. Like someone next to me threw up, but I'm not sure what's going on, but I'm kind of having fun.

37:24Bill Simmons:I love it. Even House talked himself into it pretty quickly, but they just didn't give up anything. And whatever they got back, worst case scenario, just be a giant expiring contract, which they were throwing into that trade to begin with. The picks are meaningless. They're just going to be end-of-the-round picks. And they have this puncher's chance of AD being able to rebuild his trade value for them. And either it's good for them because he'll be a playoff team, or they can flip him for something meaningful. To me, an absolute no-brainer. And we know why Mahoney did a great piece for the Ringer today.

37:59Bill Simmons:Here's why Dallas did this. Because they just had to move on and they couldn't have him around anymore. He was this walking embodiment of the dumbest trade that's ever happened. And they just had to move on and, you know, change up the guest room after the murder happened and put new furniture in there and call it a day. But I thought the Wizards, it's rare to say, I think the Wizards have been run really well the last couple of years. They've made smart moves that have made sense to me over and over again, much like Charlotte, two teams that have been an organizational disaster who now at least seem like their moves are logical.

38:33Bill Simmons:I was in on this. I really liked it.

38:36Joe House:Well, and at least when they make up injuries for Anthony Davis so that they can tank the rest of the season and protect their top eight protected pick that goes to the Knicks if it's outside the top eight. You don't have to make them up. People will believe it. You could say anything. You'd be like, Anthony Davis stubbed his toe on the stairs in his house.

38:52Bill Simmons:Longitudinal calf muscles slash something.

38:55Joe House:The elevators in his new apartment building closed faster than expected and swooshed him, and he's out for 10 games. You'd believe anything. and yeah he has vertigo okay sure but i don't i don't remember anything quite like this where a team that is so abysmally bad that has not enjoyed any meaningful lottery luck in terms of moving up and lucking into a no-brainer generational prospect i think sar is really good i'm not sure he's a generational like you did like this is that cooper flag or you know Wembenyama, obviously. He's also not Risa Shea. And still so bad. The team is so, so bad. Shot themselves in the foot with the McCollum trade.

39:38Joe House:And they just had two... I'm just like, AD, when healthy, is the top 20 player. When healthy is a big caveat. Top 25, top 20. 34 next year? And Trae Young, love him, hate him, whatever. he's a top 40 player in the NBA, probably, if we sat down and ranked him. But whatever it is, a team that is abysmally bad, nakedly tanking, just had two all-star level players fall into its lap and decided, yeah, I guess, sure, why not? We'll take Triangle. It's one of the weirdest situations I can remember. I guess it's fine. They didn't give up very much for it. They didn't give up anything.

40:20Bill Simmons:It's also a good example of why you don't buy out contracts. and why you're better off waiting until March before you buy somebody out because you never know. You never know when Dallas is going to be like, we just have to trade this guy. We got to move on from this. And all of a sudden you have Anthony Davis on your team. And by the way, the rap on this was that Rich Paul, Clutch Sports, was if you traded for AD, you were going to have to give him an extension. There's no extension.

40:46Joe House:I think I heard from other teams that were in, not in, but like at least in the, like keep us in the loop on AD that they came off that toward the end because they realized it was a losing battle.

40:59Bill Simmons:So we got to talk about... So we like that trade for the Wizards.

41:03Joe House:Can we flip it around? What do you think of it for Dallas? You just think it's we had to do it even though the picks are no good?

41:10Bill Simmons:I wouldn't have done it. I would have kept them until this summer because it would have been a big, giant expiring contract. I still liked him and flagged together. We only saw it briefly, but I thought there was real potential there. I just would have kept him. And I get it. I'm not in Dallas. I don't know how grisly and awful it is, that situation. And maybe it's that bad. But fundamentally, I don't know. If he's not playing anyway, you're trying to tank to get a lottery pick. At some point, Flag will have some sort of injury. They'll shut him down. But I don't understand why he's already hurt.

41:43Bill Simmons:This is the best case scenario for you. Then you can decide what to do this summer. Why is this a trade now? It's because you want to get rid of him.

41:48Joe House:Yeah, I think that's the more interesting conversation about this trade. is on the one hand, there was like not really a strong, there was maybe not much of a market at all for Anthony Davis injured right now. Like you can't just bank on him coming in and helping a playoff run. The contract is what it is. The$63 million player option sort of looms over it too. I think that's an underrated little element of this that Washington probably doesn't care about, but other teams would. And, you know, like, I don't think the Mavs could have done better than this now. They certainly couldn't have done worse than this in the summer had they waited.

42:22Joe House:I think that's the more interesting angle. Did they really need to do this now?

42:27Bill Simmons:I'm not convinced. They did not. I mean, what if the Knicks flame out in the playoffs and you could get Towns and something else for Davis? It's just a better asset. Two trades that I loved. You won't be surprised by either of them. Ranking number two in the list, the Knicks getting Alvarado. Basically for Yabaselli in two seconds. They traded Yabaselli for Terry. Alvarado, perfect playoff guy. I was kind of hoping the Pistons would get him. Just for, I just thought he would have been great on that team. I do think the bench clearing brawl odds for Knicks Pistons in May has probably dropped to plus 240 with Alvarado on the Knicks.

43:01Joe House:I think the odds, if they play, are... There's a fight. Well, I just... We need referees. I think the more interesting thing is the over-under on what game in the series it is. Like, is it, do we set it at two and a half and like one and a half? Is it just game one?

43:16Bill Simmons:It would be funny if Adam Silver announced the ground rules for the series. We're like, look, you might not believe me. I just want you guys to know if punches are thrown, you're out for four games. Just lay out basically. Here's what's at stake. I don't think there's any way these teams don't get into some sort of fight in a playoff series. Alvarado, I think Alvarado's already gotten in a fight with the Pistons. Didn't he?

43:39Joe House:I'd have to go back through the dossier.

43:41Bill Simmons:Alvarado's like, he'll go out with anybody. But I really liked them. They needed him. McBride's out for a while. And, you know, I just, he's a playoff guy. He's a ninth man who's going to come in, especially at home, and he can swing quarters, which is what you want. But the more important trade you mentioned earlier, Dasun Mugona, Minnesota, for Dillingham, who's a bust, for second-round picks, whatever. Dasun was just legitimately good, and he's a class, he would be on the, was he on your Marc Gasol All-Stars? I can't remember. No. But he could have been. He could have made a case as a bench guard.

44:12Bill Simmons:Sure. I was hoping the Celtics were going to get him. I don't know why the Bulls wouldn't want him he is such an upgrade what do you think the Timberwolves point guard position was for a grade heading into this week was it an F - an F or a D - for you?

44:26Joe House:one out of every three games Bontiland would make it a C -

44:31Bill Simmons:think how sad that sentence was

44:33Joe House:I mean I love their starting five as is which does not have a traditional point guard and I think that works fine it's less about the archetype of that position although it can help late in games. And this is a team that's had some late game meltdowns, although they had the opposite against Toronto last night. It's just more about like your bench can't be Nas Reed and a hope and a prayer every single, every single moment of every single game. And they've gone from that to one of the favorites for six man of the year. Good on both ends of the floor. The advanced stats don't love him defensively.

45:08Joe House:I think that's fine and probably flawed because of the team that he's playing for. I think this was my number one target for Minnesota, my favorite potential guard off the bench. The only caveat would actually...

45:20Bill Simmons:Are you sure he's off the bench?

45:22Joe House:I mean, I would bring him off the bench. Like I said, I think their starting five is great.

45:28Bill Simmons:Well, he might be finishing games for them, though. Sure, that's fine.

45:31Joe House:And sometimes Nas Reed does. Sometimes you just never know who's going to finish games. I love this trade for them. He's sniffing 50-40-90 from the field.

45:40Bill Simmons:45 from three.

45:41Joe House:He attacks all the space. Like when you put two on the ball against Ant and all those gaps open up, he's a very decisive downhill player. He'll inject some pace into their team. I think he's like an absolute A-plus perfect fit. The only caveat, Bill, is could they have just re-signed Nikhil Alexander-Walker and saved themselves a lot of trouble? What is your response to that caveat?

46:02Bill Simmons:I like how this played much more. I think this was outrageous how this worked out for them. and I can't believe four second round picks are worth the soon move for a team that's going nowhere anyway. I honestly wish the Celtics had offered their first round pick for him because I think, even though they just traded them with the Simons Vucevic, I would have, this is exactly the type of guy on a really smart team that can push the pace when you need somebody to defend another point guard. I just think he's a winning player. And I was surprised they traded him because as you said, he's 26. I understand the Kobe White thing.

46:39Bill Simmons:Kobe White, there's odds he might get 25 million a year from somebody who knows. But this is like the classic sneaky, awesome playoff guy and exactly what they needed. Because now, how many times have you watched them where it seems like, man, I just wish they had somebody who knew how to dribble the ball instead of Ant in some of these crunch times?

46:58Joe House:And he's also capable of like, he'll go off for a legit 25 points in a game. Like he's not like, well, he got a 16 tonight. It's a big game. He can pour it in in games when he's hot.

47:10Bill Simmons:He's a heat check, take over a quarter guy. I guarantee, I don't know a lot of Bulls fans, there's no way they're psyched about losing him. And he's going to go on Minnesota. He fits with the ant. I'll tell you this, Zach Lowe, because the Minnesota odds were jumping around today for the finals. At one point, they were like, I don't know, 16-1 when it seemed like they had a Giannis chance. It was 20-1 earlier. Now it's 27-1. I think they have the third best chance to win the title. like if you OKC is plus 110 on Fandle Denver 7-1 and then the next team is Celtics of 14-1 and some of these teams Spurs 15-1 I would have Minnesota in the three spot I think they're built to compete in playoff series and they have a guy who thinks he's better than everyone else in the league whether that's true or not he thinks that and he plays OKC he plays Denver he plays whoever and he's like I'm the best guy in the game and they have a nice team built around him they can go bigger they can go smaller.

48:03Bill Simmons:They have different scoring all over the place. The one thing they were missing was somebody like this guy. So I'd have them third.

48:09Joe House:Look, they've been my dark horse. Like they can win the flat out win the title team all season. I really like their team as is. It's not perfect. It can get a little ugly and stagnant sometimes. Gobert is a very polarizing player to say the least.

48:24Bill Simmons:But the league swung his way a little bit with how big everything's getting.

48:28Joe House:People poo-poo their back-to-back conference finals appearances a little bit like the matchups broke right and Steph got hurt. Like they're a legit conference finals team. Like they lost those two series. I think both of them were four to one. So they haven't acquitted themselves too well at the highest, highest level. But they're a legit, really good team. Aaron Gordon's hamstring stuff is now officially like a major concern for the Nuggets, who I think could absolutely win the championship if they're healthy. That if is coming bigger and bigger. And I don't know how odds work. Like, I don't know how you factor in the fact that your first three are all Western conference teams.

49:01Joe House:and someone has to win the East and get to the finals. But to me, they can win the title. And that was the case before this. Although I was baking in, they will do something for sure at the trade deadline like this with Dillingham going out. And this is, to me, the perfect guy.

49:17Bill Simmons:Well, interesting. Denver's in the three seed with 19 losses. Houston's four with their less wins, less losses. And then Minnesota's fifth. Denver loses Watson last night. I was watching. Were you watching when that happened? All of a sudden, he walked out holding the back of his leg.

49:35Joe House:I did. He did it during a Jokic, ridiculous Jokic basket. The Jokic minutes restriction, by the way, the fakest minutes restriction in the history of the NBA. Why even talk about it? If it's, you know what, we're going double overtime. We're going to play 40-something minutes. But it happened during a Jokic basket, so I missed it. And then the game went to break, and I saw him limping off. I was like, oh, boy. And it was one of those ones where that looked like.

49:56Bill Simmons:Yeah, it was not a good one.

49:58Joe House:Yeah.

49:59Bill Simmons:Yeah, Denver loses back-to-back games against Detroit and the Knicks that were both awesome games and just felt like later round playoff games. But I like the spot Minnesota's in. And then, you know, the other one we didn't talk about was Charlotte with basically upgrading from Colin Sexton and Kobe Jones. Kobe White. I'm sorry, Kobe White. My first live podcast malpractice. Kobe Jones, really important USA soccer player in the mid-90s. That's right. I think. Yeah. Kobe White, who I just think is... I think Colin Sexton was fun for that Hornets team, but I think Kobe White's a better player and makes more sense with them.

50:43Bill Simmons:I don't think they're going to get Lonzo. I thought when Lonzo got bought out, I thought that's where he was going, but I don't think that's where he was going.

50:50Joe House:Well, they just got Tyus Jones from the Magic in a tax dump. And notably, in that trade, they got two second-round picks, almost replenishing the three seconds they sent out in the Sexton-Coby White deal. Yeah, Kobe White's just like a better version of Colin Sexton.

51:04Bill Simmons:Right, and a little more thoughtful with teammates and gives them some fun lineups. And Charlotte's third in net rating in the last 25 games? 25 games is not a small sample size.

51:17Joe House:Now, I wonder what would happen if you turned the two 50-something point victories into like run-of-the-mill 20-something point victories. But it's still top five. And they did win those games by 50 points. And they look legit. I think it would be super fun if they made the playoffs. And I think they're, I mean, right now, if they got into the play-in tournament, let's say they leapfrogged Chicago. I mean, they're playing better than Atlanta. They're playing better than Orlando. They're playing better than Miami. And hell, get them in there. Let's have like a Knicks-Hornets first-round series.

51:52Joe House:That'd be a blast.

51:54Bill Simmons:What do you think their playing odds are on FanDuel right now? To get in? The Hornets to be a playing team. Okay. What do you think the odds are? I would just tell you that they were plus 290 two weeks ago.

52:08Joe House:Something roughly better than even odds? Yeah. They're minus 600 to make the play in now.

52:15Bill Simmons:So Vegas is like, we're in. We completely believe. and I like them to actually make the actual playoffs, which is plus 138. I think that team's legit good. And if Lomelo, who knows? Knock on wood with Lomelo. But if he can stay healthy. So some of the other smaller stuff as we get closer to the deadline, Cleveland shed just a phenomenal amount of luxury tax. Not that we care because it's just somebody's money, but they shed about$100 million with that Sacramento trade and then somebody taking Lonzo Ball. I still don't understand what's worth it for these teams to take a$10 million player and like hear a couple second round picks for your troubles.

52:55Bill Simmons:It's like, oh, gee, thanks. I would just rather stick them with the tax bill and get the money back from them. Philly got under the apron. Minnesota was able to shed some money.

53:05Joe House:Philly got under the tax. Phoenix got under the tax. Denver got under the tax. Toronto got under the tax. Orlando got under the tax. Whee! Yay! Good job.

53:12Bill Simmons:Everybody's under the tax so they don't get slaughtered by it. And then the Celtics did not get under the tax yet, although it feels like they're creeping toward it. But they did get under the first apron. So this Simons-Vucevic trade, it's really Simons for Vucevic and blank because there's going to be a second player that they add, probably a guard because they're a guard short right now after losing Simons. Buyout. Buyout or who knows? Maybe they'll do something the next 10 minutes. but they had a crazy win in Houston.

53:47Joe House:I didn't see that game, but they blew them out. They blew them out without... Who said that game? John Brown and Hauser, right?

53:55Bill Simmons:Yeah, and Simons, who wasn't there anymore. Ron Harper outplayed Kevin Durant and started.

54:03Joe House:When Houston has rough games, they're pretty rough.

54:07Bill Simmons:I don't like the vibe with them. they're not passing now granted I'm sitting on a TV 1500 miles away I'm sitting on a couch 1500 miles away watching my TV I thought Adams was kind of their super sauce superpower and not having him anymore they just seem beatable every night now

54:26Joe House:they're fine

54:27Bill Simmons:they're a 50 win team

54:28Joe House:yeah but without Adams with Adams playing 20 minutes you're basically guaranteed a crazy offensive rebounding rate yes and without him you're still a very good offensive rebounding team but you could have an average offensive rebounding game and when you lose that element, their offense just gets a little bit stuck in mud. Turns out they missed Fred Van Vliet which I thought everyone was just sort of like waving that away at the beginning of the season. Yeah. Out of excitement for Reid who's been good and Amen who's been very good. They need a player like Fred Van Vliet and he's injured.

55:30Bill Simmons:I have a... Top four best we fucked up admissions. Okay. Number one, Minnesota with Rob Dillingham. Whoops. Damn. So you think that was a fuck up? Because he was like 20 million bucks and they were way over the...

55:49Joe House:I think they're the same fuck up in that we let him go and brought Nas back because we had to give these young guys a chance and none of it panned out.

55:59Bill Simmons:Makes sense. That's number one. number two not a surprise but golden state with the wise men coming a combo that's the official it's the funeral where somebody was not coherent for 10 years and you still have to have the funeral but then it's still kind of like man looking back can't believe how that played out atlanta last summer where they had this unbelievable spot you're trying you were doing bird sounds on your podcast trying to hurt me now house and i might have a eastern conference long shot bet with them. And weirdly, Alexander Walker was an A-plus for a move, and every other move was terrible.

56:39Bill Simmons:They trade Luke Kennard to the Lakers. So they get out of the Luke Kennard business. They get out of the Porzingis business. They're not in the honest business. I don't know if they want to be a play-in team or a lottery team. Basically, they hit the lottery with this New Orleans trade that Dumars offered them, and that was how they won the summer. but then everything else they did. Well, that's the thing.

57:02Joe House:Like among the teams that was not in on Giannis now that it's a small win for them that this gets kicked to the summer. I don't think the Hawks would trade the number one overall pick if they got it for Giannis just because it's too valuable. The strap is too good. But, you know, they could nudge their way back into that discussion if they wanted to now. But yeah, it's been a bad year for the Hawks. And Kennard is like, you know, Kennard to the Lakers, fine. Like, Canard's one of those guys who, like, every team's excited to get him. He shoots 40 % to 45 % from three-legged clockwork, and he can't play in the playoffs down the stretch of games or even in the regular season.

57:40Joe House:And every team eventually is like, yeah, okay, we're moving off you.

57:44Bill Simmons:He does get passed around a lot. I still felt like there was a team for him somewhere at some point in his career. Like, I always thought, like, it just would have been fun to watch him on Denver being used, like, they used Jamal Murray as the bench backup. Something like that. where he's playing on bigs and guys who know how to move, and he's just shooting open threes, but we'll never see it. And then the last team, the Lakers, I don't know if you noticed the shift in what was being handed out to media from a narrative standpoint, but they are now in the, hey, in case you didn't notice, looking like 60 million in cap space this summer.

58:23Joe House:Cool. Someone said 100 million somewhere, and I'm like, that's definitely not right, because Reeves' cap hold is like$27 million by itself, and then you throw in Luka. The cap's only$160. You got other salaries, but they got a lot of cap space, and they now have three first-round picks to trade in the offseason.

58:39Bill Simmons:Who's the cap space for? Who are the free agents? It's a great question. It's a great question. Cap space. It's so seductive and sexy until you look at the 26 free agent list. I just think when you look back at what they did last year and them talking themselves into DeAndre Ayton, which was hilarious, And it was funny watching Laker fans go through the seven stages of DeAndre Ayton. And now they've reached the final stage, which is what's in the box? What's in the box? A lot of seven references from you recently. Just watched it. But yeah, they're in the what's in the box stage with Ayton. What did you know?

59:15Joe House:Well, I want your Lakers thoughts on something. Yeah. I feel like the Draymond Lakers buzz just leapt out of the shadows and into the spotlight explicitly this year. Like there's, I don't know exactly where the reporting came from. Cause it's, it's a word this, this week of the year, but like, oh, there's legitimate interest. He's got this player option, blah, blah. Like what, what do you actually like? Is there a world where LeBron leaves the Lakers and Draymond goes to the Lakers? Or is it like they're, they're going to be, they want to play together. Like, are we, is Draymond still this relevant for lack of a better word?

59:52Bill Simmons:He not from a player standpoint. I don't think he's at the same level he used to be. with that said, a Rui for Draymond trade would be really fun that's actually a trade I was wondering would happen this week, but I kind of liked it for both sides, I liked Rui on the Warriors and I liked the idea of Draymond on the Lakers as kind of trying to supercharge them a little bit, I do think the argument that he got into with JJ Redick at some point after the trade on the court during a Lakers game would be phenomenal, like that might be one of those like both guys being held back for real, not like a hold me back but like I'm fighting you.

1:00:28Joe House:By the way, great hold me back by your coach Joe Mazzulla this last week when Cassell almost fell over trying to hold him back from the refs. Did you see that?

1:00:37Bill Simmons:I saw that. I also thought the hold me back of the year was Jeremiah Fierce. Oh, he wants it all. No fears. Zero fears. There was some fears early on though when it was just the two of them. Who did he get into with? I can't remember. It was a bigger guy who was mad at him.

1:00:54Joe House:By the way, to your point about the Pelicans, they trade Alvarado. Otherwise, they're close for business because when you have the worst record in the NBA, you can't contemplate anything. You can't contemplate any trades. They lost in overtime to the Bucs last night. You've made this point before. I saw it. It does feel like every single game is close and they lose every single game. It's just uncanny.

1:01:18Bill Simmons:They're about two with a minute left in 40 straight games.

1:01:21Joe House:The deadline is passed. By the way, also Pelicans related.

1:01:28astonishing how little buzz I heard or even read about Zion Williamson.

1:01:36Joe House:And his numbers are good. When I watch them play, I just, the pop isn't there as consistently as it used to be. And there are some games where the numbers also aren't there. His free throws are there. That's what he's kind of subsisting on. the numbers are what they are the eye test for me is like this guy four nights out of five is not the guy that he looked like when he got hurt in that Lakers playing game where he was single-handedly eviscerating the Lakers

1:02:07Bill Simmons:I thought he would have been a fun Warriors fucking trade did you hear anything?

1:02:12Joe House:I didn't hear even anything like on background talking to executives like I heard this team might take a flyer, his deal's non-guaranteed like I heard nothing

1:02:19Bill Simmons:I don't think the Pelicans seem like they really want to do anything. Do their phones work? As I've said, it's possible. As I've said to you, I would have traded Trey Murphy. I just would have. You can't tell me he's untouchable. My team sucks.

1:02:33Joe House:Yeah, I did enjoy. I texted people this morning that I enjoyed Trey Murphy. Right before the trade deadline, like I got to put on a show just on the off chance I can get the fuck out of here. Like 44 points. Like, is anyone watching? Is anyone watching? Throw the third pick in.

1:02:48Bill Simmons:he was like about to be divorced 40 year old going to the bar in the best possible dress just hoping hoping to get attention from anybody look at me another three the guy that I thought would be the who was your he's not being mentioned at all but I wouldn't be shocked if he was traded today guy because mine was Lou Dort

1:03:09Joe House:I mean

1:03:10Bill Simmons:that would have been the one I wouldn't have been surprised by but I think people would have been surprised because he's got a team option next year He just signed with Clutch, and I'm not positive OKC needs him and Caruso and Wallace in a league where scoring is more paramount than ever. I would have said, I would have picked probably someone from Orlando, like Jalen Suggs or somebody like that.

1:03:38Joe House:Like just somebody. Or Anthony Black. I don't think they would move him, but like something like what Orlando did what? like they just just like a change sort of like what Cleveland did just like a we gotta change up something because what we have is stagnating and like out of left field comes this I would have probably have said want somebody there or I don't even know Portland like Portland has kind of been radio silent but I don't I don't think anybody really wanted Jeremy Grant and I don't know what else I mean Drew Holiday I guess I don't know

1:04:08Bill Simmons:I kind of like Portland's team I mean I like watching them

1:04:11Joe House:they're locked in now baby they're getting into playing

1:04:15Bill Simmons:So deadline pass. These next three minutes will be when it's like, whoa, this happened. And we haven't had a whoa, this happened yet. We didn't talk about... You didn't really give your take on the Simons-Vucevic trade. As a member of the Itch All-Stars, did you feel like he has anything left in the tank? Could you see him in a playoff series? He's never really had a chance to win a playoff series before.

1:04:38Joe House:He's having his once every three years good shooting year this year. So maybe that sustains for Boston. I think he's going to perk up a little bit, leaving a moribund Chicago team that had long run its course. And he's got the fact that he was traded for the Franz Wagner pick kind of hanging around his neck all the time there. I will say there have been, he's never been a good defensive player. There have been a lot of nights this season where he's trended toward the washed level of defense, not on offense. On offense, he's still a plus and all that. I need to see him perk up like 10 % on defense to get like normal below average instead of like, wow, those feet look like they're really in cement.

1:05:19Joe House:He's 35. But also like Keita is going to start at that set in stone. The guy's too good and he's been too good. You do have Garza. Like I'm not counting on him for a huge lift, but it's so helpful to have around in that sense.

1:05:35Bill Simmons:one of my Boston sports fan threads has Mike Scherer on it who has always been a diehard Vucevic guy like every trade deadline do we have a chance to get Vucevic like just loves him and then the Celtics finally got him this year and he's like I wish it was three years ago I was like really you've been calling for this since COVID you wanted this guy but it might be too late I really liked how Simon's fit in I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they signed Simons in the offseason on a different deal if they had the ability to get creative in any way to try to get him. Or sign and trade, whatever.

1:06:12Joe House:I liked him too. He added some real pop to their team after a rough start and I just thought there was a certain stability in having two of white Pritchard, Simons, Brown on the floor all the time. Now, I think their argument would be Tatum could become one of those four. In which case, we don't need Simons as much but um what do you like is this pritchard is coming off the bench now is that a thing like i like because they lost simons are now going to do this is that happening i think they have to

1:06:44Bill Simmons:stagger pritchard and white for as much as they possibly can now because they only have two guards that's why i was hoping for a disunmo or somebody like that like uh somebody that was a little trustworthy with the ball but now they have to stagger it because that's it and then they'll probably play together in the fourth quarter would be my guess they're experimenting they're going to experiment with a bunch of double bigs and things like that. Now, what would you tell a Miami fan right now?

1:07:09Joe House:I would tell a Miami fan that, um, they were all in on Giannis and playing the waiting game the last 24 hours. And I, if I were them, if I were a Miami fan, I'd be a little worried that we had this window where we were in the waiting game, Minnesota traded out of it. Golden State traded out of it. And like the Giannis team started falling away. And we were maybe like the last real team standing. And then Giannis went away. And yeah, we can trade four first round picks in the offseason. And we still have all the stuff we would have traded for him. But now it's going to be a more open. On the one hand, it's going to be more open because some team will lose in the playoffs and say, OK, now we got to go all in and we weren't before.

1:07:56Joe House:On the other hand, perhaps he has more leverage Giannis to direct where he wants to go because he's on an expiring deal. but I do feel like maybe it was never real. Maybe they were never going to trade him. I don't know. I think Miami was under the impression that there was some chance. Maybe like the dumb and dumber, you're telling me there's a chance chance, but some chance.

1:08:14Bill Simmons:This is what they do. It's like, here's 40 cents on the dollar for your best guy. Any interest? What? I mean, you don't want this? We're off to you, Tyler Hero and Khalil Ware, who doesn't play, and picks.

1:08:28Joe House:the Khalil Ware thing with the up and down minutes and like we're trying Bam and Ware together we're going to start Bam and Ware together that's our team to like now we never play them together and sometimes we're just not going to play Ware at all in the second half has not helped

1:08:42Bill Simmons:would you have traded Bam and as many picks and swaps as possible for Giannis because I would have

1:08:52Joe House:I mean I think you probably have to because I love Bam.

1:08:57Bill Simmons:I know you did.

1:08:58Joe House:His contract is...

1:08:59Bill Simmons:Back when your fingers used to work, you wrote a long Bam piece once.

1:09:03Joe House:I love Bam. Bam's a winner. I think that was functionally not doable because Bam and Giannis have the same agent and the idea is to play them together, pair them together. Cool.

1:09:16Bill Simmons:Unfortunately, somebody has to be in the Giannis trade.

1:09:18Joe House:That is true. And you have one asset. That is true.

1:09:23Bill Simmons:I'm trying to think who else is probably kicking themselves right now. I'm still... I don't know. I think this is such a weird NBA story. We still don't know for sure how badly he wanted to get traded. And we still don't know for sure what kind of asset he was. Can I just report something? Wait, who? Giannis? I would have thought teams would be in a fistfight trying to get him. Oh, Cam Thomas, your guy. What happened?

1:09:51Joe House:He got waved.

1:09:56Joe House:Just a moment of silence.

1:10:01Joe House:Waved? Cut? Pick his team in free agency, baby.

1:10:07Bill Simmons:Do you feel better about your summer dust-up or no?

1:10:10Joe House:No. Wow, waved. Most depressing tweet of the day, Chris Haynes. No trades materialized for the Sacramento Kings, and they held on to DeMontis, Sabonis, Zach Levine, DeMar DeRozan, and Malik Monk. It's like the laundry list. And Morant. Oh my God. We got to talk about Morant. He's a grizzly still. Are we sure? Unless something crazy happens. Like, it's 309. Are we sure he's a grizzly? He's a grizzly. I had my Kings Morant jersey ready. Like, I had it pre-ordered at NBA.com. Nice purple jersey.

1:10:44Bill Simmons:Waved Cam Thomas. Well, look. So who needs, I mean, really, this is this generation's Deion Waiters award, potentially. Who needs a heat check guy off the bench the most? Could this be like a Celtic?

1:11:01Joe House:It's a big grenade to throw onto your bench. It's like, he's coming in hot. Like, he's coming in hot.

1:11:08Bill Simmons:So it's a team that's probably struggling for scoring in a bunch of different ways. That bench scoring is a disaster for them. that's not a Detroit team, is it?

1:11:21Joe House:I don't think they would mess around with, with the messing, messing around with their chemistry at all. I could Houston just go in there and be like, well,

1:11:32Bill Simmons:that's a team that does not need a chemistry. Well,

1:11:35Joe House:that's true. Please. I'm just seeking a team that can use a guy to come in and like, all right, go, go get hot, breaking case of emergency. We don't need to talk more about Cam Thomas. I just wanted to note it. No,

1:11:46Bill Simmons:I'm trying to, because I do think he's no Cleveland, right?

1:11:52Joe House:No.

1:11:54Bill Simmons:Minnesota, had they not,

1:11:55Joe House:although I don't think he's Tim Connelly's kind of player, had they not gotten a boost and the guard play would have needed something.

1:12:04Bill Simmons:A scale of 1 to 10, how shocked do you behave if OKC has picked up Cam Thomas? 10.5. 10.5.

1:12:12Joe House:By the way, the McCain trade is a sneaky. I think you talked about it yesterday. That's a sneaky, interesting trade.

1:12:20Bill Simmons:I loved it. I was kind of mad. That was another one I would have loved for the Celtics. McCain was just on the wrong team. I still think he's an asset. He's had a great career. He's won everywhere he's went, and he just randomly ends up on a team with Maxie and Edgecombe together, which is probably the best young backcourt. Yeah, it's like fine. I mean, they definitely paid a price for him. They gave up a first and three seconds. As you know, I don't care about seconds, but by NBA standards, that was a lot.

1:12:48Joe House:Yeah. The Rockets picked this year, I think.

1:12:50Bill Simmons:Do you think McCain plays for them now?

1:12:52Joe House:I don't see why he like, I mean, look, it's a big integration on a team that's, he's definitely going to play in the regular season just because of how many players they have that are hurt. In the playoffs, I could see a scenario where offense is a little stuck in mud. Shea's on the bench for his rest period. Like, let's throw him in and see if he makes some shots. I mean, they tried AJ Mitchell in the finals last year. A.J. Mitchell has obviously ascended into a big part of their team. I could see him getting on the floor.

1:13:20Bill Simmons:What team did you want to trade for John Morant?

1:13:24Joe House:In your heart of hearts, just as for content. As a joke?

1:13:28Bill Simmons:No, for content, but a trade that actually makes sense.

1:13:31Joe House:I mean, I do think there's an argument for the Kings to do it. And I think they would have done it if they could have just done it for dead money and no assets. But the Grizzlies rightfully are like, we're not doing that. We have two years left on this contract. I think he's fine for a team that has hemorrhaged actual good point guards and sent them flying all over the league. I think it's a fine by low opportunity for them. They were always my favorite one in terms of like, it's not like they're playing for anything. So if he messes up your chemistry or whatever, it doesn't really matter. I don't know.

1:14:04Joe House:Did you have one?

1:14:06Bill Simmons:Yeah, mine was Golden State.

1:14:09Joe House:Wow. That would be weird. Weird. Are you trying to drive Steve Kerr out of coaching? I mean, what are you doing? Maybe that would be a piece of it.

1:14:17Bill Simmons:Well, one thing with Golden State is they don't really have anybody who can beat someone off the dribble other than Steph, who just has five guys guarding him at all times, unless you set 100 picks for him. And I thought it would have been a really fun random wrinkle to just have Ja on that team trying to create space and attack. And now I'm a little less, I can't be as shaded over to Steph. I don't know. I just felt like Golden State was at the point of their season. I guess they did it with Porzingis, where they're just going to do some sort of weird trade. And maybe it turned out to be Porzingis.

1:14:50Bill Simmons:So we had no other trades? That's really it? Cam Thomas was our big news?

1:14:55Joe House:Well, Zubats on the live pod. Zubats was the big one. That was an hour ago. That was a while ago, yeah. Nothing has happened of note trade-wise since then.

1:15:07Bill Simmons:So, big picture.

1:15:08Joe House:Yeah.

1:15:10Bill Simmons:Minnesota has increased their title on kind of their title persona. Yep. The Clippers might be out of the playoffs now.

1:15:20Joe House:I mean, if Garland plays, and I'm excited to see this Niederhauser kid. He's been good when he's gotten minutes. If he's all right and Garland plays, I mean, who's passing them that's out of the play-in right now?

1:15:34Bill Simmons:Well, you just mentioned if Garland plays. To this fly-ifs. multiple stories about yeah they're trying to figure out can they use different implanted lifts for his sneakers to help his toes you know what basketball players need? Toes

1:15:50Joe House:there's also the Kawhi like at any moment it could be like Kawhi's away from the team for a week and whatever like you just never know but I mean Memphis isn't going to try Dallas isn't going to try Utah's not going to try and everyone else is way too far behind

1:16:02Bill Simmons:so if you go last 25 games net rating. Miami is 15th at 12 and 13. So 12 and 13 in the last 25 games and did nothing at the trade deadline. I just think this whole Miami thing is weird. I thought, I really thought at least they'd take a swing on Ja. I think it was going to be Sacramento or Miami as the realistic Ja teams. Good call. As like the fuck it. They didn't even do that. So I don't know. What does Miami think is going to happen here?

1:16:36Joe House:I don't know that they were ever super in on Jha. I just think they're like...

1:16:41Bill Simmons:I don't blame them. But I just thought it was a possibility.

1:16:45Joe House:I think they would probably look at it and say, given his availability issues over the last three seasons, is he$30 million better than Davion Mitchell?

1:16:55Bill Simmons:No.

1:16:56Joe House:We're just not going to do it.

1:16:58Bill Simmons:I wonder how much Florida and South Beach tied into it too. that's at least the conversation in a meeting

1:17:06Joe House:oh there's no question you would talk about it if you were them

1:17:09Bill Simmons:do you think Cleveland has more of a chance to win the title now than they did

1:17:14Joe House:you could argue that they are one of the big winners around the league because nobody around them in the East made a meaningful win now like a big meaningful win now Alvarado helps the Knicks Herter helps the Pistons you know Vucevic helps the Celtics but nobody made the kind of like oh crap they're really going for it kind of move I do think just Harden will play like I did the whole Harden-Garland thing on my pod but it's a super interesting trade

1:17:48Bill Simmons:I listened to it you had one really funny moment you were basically like glass half fulling how bad he is in the playoffs and you said something and you were right. You weren't wrong, but you said something like, and Harden, you know, his playoff history speaks for itself, but every once in a while during a series, he'll have two good games. Just win in five. That's technically true. Just win in five. Quit all your series in five. Two of seven and maybe in the last game you rely on somebody else. Maybe that'll work. I mean, I thought that was funny. I do think, I mean,

1:18:25Joe House:it's a, I just can't, I still can't believe that trade happened in the sense of like Cleveland trading for James Harden, Cleveland trading Darius Garland. But just based on availability alone, they are better than they were before. They obviously didn't trust Garland to be available, but...

1:18:43Bill Simmons:So the Clippers wanted upside. The Cavaliers wanted availability. And if you're putting James Harden on a team that has a chance to win the title, one of the conditions has to be, can somebody else score if there's a big game? And in their case, yes.

1:18:59Joe House:This is one of the bizarro things of both the Clippers trading for James Harden and the Cavaliers trading for James Harden is you begin to talk yourself into it by almost turning his weaknesses into a strength that fits your team. Like he can get us to game six and seven. And then because he's reliable and he's available, he's a volume guy. And then we have this other guy who can get us over the hump when he, you know, does his thing, you know, the thing that he does. I'm like, I don't what do we do? Like my the logic is warping my my brain.

1:19:28Bill Simmons:Well, remember, I mean, if you ever did a documentary, it'd be about the greatest theoretical team of all time, as you called it, the Brooklyn Nets for, what, two months? They were unstoppable. Harden was off the ball a lot on that team. And it just felt like every three was going in. Remember, there were times when he was just kind of over there, like ready to shoot. And it was really terrifying. And I wonder if the Cavs can unlock that at all. But I also wonder, like, at his age and how many, how long he's been in the league, he's just so used to having the ball. would he be cool with just not having the ball that much at this point of his career?

1:20:03Joe House:He is the system. I mean, there were times with Kawhi when he wouldn't have the ball all the time, and that's going to be the case now. But the mid-season adjustment aspect of these trades is, I think, underrated in the euphoria of analyzing them and thinking about the fit. It's a big adjustment to plop him into your team.

1:20:23Bill Simmons:Last thing on the Zubats trade, because I guess we're going to wrap it up soon because nothing else happened. Did the Pacers, the more I'm thinking about it, give up too much for Zubats there? That could be the fifth pick in the draft.

1:20:35Joe House:It's a very good job by the Clippers to get. Now, I think the reporting is it becomes unprotected, but 2031, which is also a pretty valuable asset, actually. I'd rather have it that than 27. That's a lot of assets. That's a good trade by the Clippers. You're back in it, Gahal. It's a, if you're going to do that trade with Zubats on the contract that he's on, you got to get an absolute blue chip asset. And I bet they haggled for like top three protection, top six protection, Pacers coming back saying that. And they settled in a spot that makes sense. And, you know, again, I don't know this draft well enough.

1:21:14Joe House:Do you like that trade

1:21:14Bill Simmons:for the Clippers? I kind of like it.

1:21:16Joe House:Me?

1:21:17Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:21:17Joe House:Yeah. I like.

1:21:19Bill Simmons:So they're getting two unprotected picks if this trade doesn't hit with the, in this draft. And they're getting 29 and 31 from the Pacers. unprotected picks, big commodity. You can always trade them. And Matherin will fill in some scoring. And then they weren't winning the title anyway with Zubats.

1:21:37Joe House:We'll see what Matherin actually is because they've been very protective of what is left of their cap space post-Kawhi contract. And maybe Kawhi takes up some of that cap space. I don't know. So I'm not sure that Matherin is going to be part of their team. That doesn't mean they can't sign and trade him, but we'll see.

1:21:54Bill Simmons:Well, you know I'm on the record. I like Matherin. I think he's, I watched it in person. That's a guy that's not afraid of big moments. And he was going against an OKC set of pit bulls that were about as frightening as you could find and was still pretty comfortable and having moments against them. I thought, I don't know. I just think that guy could be in a playoff series.

1:22:15Joe House:Look, they made the finals last year. They're a game away from the championship and he was a reliable part of their rotation. Some nights it hit, some nights it didn't. But when it hit, it was like, all right, he just manufactured. you need the manufactured points sometimes. Like, man, we're playing a great defense. We're missing our threes. Like we need, this guy got us six free throws in three minutes that like kept us above water. You need, you need guys like that. All right.

1:22:39Bill Simmons:So we're on Cam Thomas watch. Yeah. We are sadly taking a hibernation break for Giannis watch, but I guess that heats up again around the draft. Right. That's not too far away. conceivably they could trade him during the finals if they wanted. More likely July 1st. And I think he blew it. I really do. I think he should have forced their hand, but who knows? Maybe the sports movie ending will be he comes back in April, they make the play and then Giannis goes on a legendary one with Ryan Rollins.

1:23:11Joe House:See, you're joking. You're joking. And I don't think that's going to happen. Shouldn't we at least acknowledge that it's kind of cool that part of him wants to be a one-team guy. Now, it's not all of him, and that's what's been frustrating, right?

1:23:28Bill Simmons:I think he wanted to get traded. I just don't think he wanted to ask to get traded.

1:23:32Joe House:I think you're probably right. Okay, I take it back.

1:23:34Bill Simmons:If he said he wanted to be a one-team guy, he would have said, please don't trade me. I want to be a one-team guy.

1:23:38Joe House:He keeps saying things like, you know, I love Milwaukee. If you told me that Milwaukee is going to contend for championships forever, the conversation's over. I want to be here forever, but I don't know if that's the case. I don't know what he wants, and he doesn't know what he wants. And that's why he's a buck, baby.

1:23:52Bill Simmons:It's a long relationship. It's like when, when your spouse, when it's like, I, I thought you weren't, you told me last week, you weren't going to drink wine anymore during the day. Yeah, I did. Didn't I? Now I'm having a glass of Chardonnay. What do you have problem with that? That's the honest last week. I thought you told me you want to be traded. No, no. I want to stay here. And then a week later, you know what? It'd be great to get traded. What can I, I don't know. The bucks were always pretty adamant that he wasn't as pushy to be traded as it was being portrayed. We'll never know the truth.

1:24:26Joe House:He didn't. Nothing he said in public convinced me that he didn't want to be traded. Let's put it that way. It's a great point. Yeah. I like the wine metaphor. It's fun.

1:24:41Bill Simmons:Zach Lowe. It was a true pleasure. We should mention on the Zach Lowe show. Are you taping that tonight or tomorrow?

1:24:48Joe House:We're going to tape it tonight. I'm going to make some calls for the next few hours and get ready. We're going to tape it tonight. And it'll be up.

1:24:54Bill Simmons:So that's popping up late night.

1:24:55Joe House:Midnight. Midnight, 1 a.m., something like that.

1:24:58Bill Simmons:You can watch and listen on Spotify. You can watch it on Netflix as well. And then I can't remember when we're starting on Sunday nights, but we're going to be doing Sunday nights together on this podcast for a while. Pretty soon. Super Bowl's over. Go Seahawks. A lot of basketball stuff. Zach Lowe, good to see you. We're going to take a break. Coming back with Joe House talking Super Bowl next. Welcome to We Kept the Receipts, presented by TaxAct, where we look back at our predictions and figure out who deserves a victory lap and who is completely off base. And a lot of years, I'm in both camps.

1:25:32Bill Simmons:TaxAct helps you with actual receipts, like the kind that you can use for tax deductions or credits, and the ones that help you get your maximum refund every tax season. So we're wrapping up football season right now, And I was really high on the Patriots and on the Broncos and on the Seahawks. But you know who else I was high on? The Las Vegas Raiders. I thought they were going to be a playoff team. I thought the Bears were going to be in the playoffs too. You win some, you lose some. But I really thought the Patriots were going to be good. Did I pick them to make the big game? I did not. But you win some, you lose some.

1:26:07Bill Simmons:We kept the receipts. That was presented by Tax Act. that this tax season, make your max refund the one prediction that actually pays off. Visit taxact.com to learn more. Conditions apply. See taxact.com for details. All right, Joe House is here doing yeoman's duty. Is that how you pronounce it? Yeoman's? Yeoman's? Yeoman's? Who's yeoman? I don't know. Oh my God. That's why we're at that gentleman's work. That's like what our buddy Blue Boy called it Duquesne instead of Duquesne. You're doing yeoman's work. Yeoman's. And Yeoman's work.

1:26:45Bill Simmons:I already talked about the Anthony Davis trade with Zach Lowe. You are a Wizards fan. America wants your take. Let's hear it.

1:26:53Zach Lowe:I give it an A plus from a couple different angles as a Washington fan. And I've seen the reasonable kind of caution that's out there. Here's the problem. There hasn't been anything to root for in terms of Washington basketball. in what feels like a full decade. I mean, really seriously. 2017. There you go. Those playoffs were the last time that there was like enthusiasm. Now, always tip of the cap to Russell Westbrook, who dragged a sorry-ass team into the eighth seed in 2021 or whatever the year was, showed Beta Beal, this is the pathway to being an actual let's go down and go after it kind of approach.

1:27:40Zach Lowe:and they got slaughtered by Philadelphia. That was the only other real sort of interesting competitive basketball team in the last 10 years. So the commitment by this front office, when you are doing the cost-benefit analysis, the cost is very, very, very low. You have not bit down on any huge salaries. You haven't bit down on any extensions with anybody. But the city's had enough. we want to see some competitive basketball. There is an enthusiasm. I've been going to games this year, sort of interested to see how the fans are reacting and how the kids themselves are developing. And there really is something here.

1:28:24Zach Lowe:When they play hard and when they were trying to win games, this little group with CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton, and you could tell when Washington was trying to win games because they would leave Middleton or McCollum or both in the game in the fourth quarter, say, hey, we're trying to win one. Yeah. But it was fun. And, you know, the Washington community has been supporting this young group, but it's a very small community. I mean, part of the problem is Ted Leonsis is sick of looking up at an empty stadium. Now, this is the conundrum for the franchise, right? We've told everybody that we're tanking.

1:28:57Zach Lowe:We are going to tank, but please come to our games. That's a tough one to pull off.

1:29:02Bill Simmons:Well, you want to be where Charlotte is, where you have some assets, and then all of a sudden you start playing well and there's energy out of nowhere all of a sudden. I didn't see, I told Zach, I didn't see the risk in this. You didn't really give up anything. You have the chance to revamp him as a trade asset. So that was the serious basketball analysis. Now let's talk about the funny part of this. This is just a classic Wizards trade. You're getting a guy who peaked five years ago and you're pairing him up with a guy who peaked four years ago and they both look good together. the little screenshot things.

1:29:36Bill Simmons:And it's like, look, we got Anthony Davis and Trey Young and some young guys. Come see us. But it's the guys who peaked a while ago, which is what you went through with. I mean, how many people do you want to go through here? But this was the Antoine Jameson. That's a long time ago. That's not this era. This is getting Bernard King.

1:29:59Zach Lowe:Why are we going to the history books? This is getting Mark Price. Well, Mark Price could play when they acquired him. He just got hurt. Who are some of the other classics? I mean, I'm surprised that you've taken this on. Michael Jordan's not a bad example. Michael Jordan may be the best example. He might be the best one. Now, he put himself in because he had an ownership interest in the team. So he acquired himself. Rashard Lewis was another classic. I mean, it's not necessary. I'm just saying. different front office for the most of the era that you're describing you're taking advantage

1:30:36Bill Simmons:of a franchise that is so scarred by the worst trade in the history of the nba that they just want to erase all evidence that it happened they're like we need to get this guy off the team he's a walking reminder that we traded luka donchich for 10 cents on the dollar and we just need to get him away and that's why they did it i i like the gamble because worst case scenario you didn't lose anything. Best case scenario, he's an expiring contract next year. You didn't have to give him an extension. And then, who knows?

1:31:05Zach Lowe:He has a player option, but he wants the extension, so...

1:31:08Bill Simmons:You might be able to rehab him into, like, a real trade asset in February, or somebody you want to keep. Same thesis

1:31:14Zach Lowe:for Trey, by the way. Yeah. Well, Trey, I think we have a better idea. I think he's motivated, though, to rehabilitate himself to show what kind of a player he can be as a facilitator. Could he be motivated to make some threes? Davis just needs to play.

1:31:28Bill Simmons:I'd rather that Trey pass the ball than shoot the three. It's hilarious you've talked yourself into this already because Davis was, I think, a top five this century guys you were the most frustrated by.

1:31:39Zach Lowe:Well, because he's every other Davis. I mean, he plays every other day. But when we're thinking about it in the context of trying to develop, all of this boils down to immense pressure on these ping pong balls that are going to be shaking out in this lottery machine.

1:32:00Bill Simmons:So you have two guys that aren't going to play again this year, probably. You have a young team that's probably going to lose. You have a real chance to get one of the top four picks. Put them with Saar. Put them with Trey Johnson. And then we like George. We talked about him in the trade value pod. And then you have AD and Trey as the wild cards. And you have trade bait if you want to go all in and get somebody. I didn't mind it. I think the Wizards have been smart for a couple years now. I like everything they've done. I can't even ding them on the Trey Johnson pick because I don't know who else they should have taken.

1:32:32Bill Simmons:You could have said like, oh, we should take Cedric Howard, but they wouldn't have done that last year. Yeah, nobody had anybody. Nobody had Cedric Howard going fifth. Like you can't do the redraft and be like, oh, they blew it. I know. They didn't blow it. The Nets might have blown it. That was the pick after them. Okay, Super Bowl. So Drake May seems fine. I feel a lot better than I did on Sunday's podcast with the Cubs. Knocking on wood for it to stay that way. I'm incredibly confident. I feel great. I love that everybody loves Seattle. I love it. I've made a lot of the cases the last couple weeks about their defense is really good.

1:33:13Bill Simmons:I don't think it's great. I don't think they can overpower us. It's not one of those defenses that's going to get 10 sacks. I think their offensive line has some holes. like one of the guards, Milton Williams and Barmore just pushing up the middle. I think they can do some damage. I think our defense can match their defense. And then the wild card would be Drake Mayow playing Sam Darnold. Pat's plus four and a half line hasn't budged. And I've liked it the whole time. I like them in little teases. I think you could talk me into a tease with taking them to double digits with the over, just taking them to 7.5, knocking down the over a little bit.

1:33:53Bill Simmons:Pat's Moneyline. This is, I honestly feel like I'm watching 2001 again. No respect. Brady says he doesn't have a dog in the race, which really offended all the Pats fans. I did an Instagram video about that yesterday. You don't have a dog in the race, Tom Brady? Really? Just offensive. I don't understand that at all. And I love the spot. And most importantly, I don't see anyone picking the Pats. It feels like this is Seattle across the board. This is a coronation. How did things change in four weeks? They beat the depleted Niners twice, and they barely beat the Rams, and Stafford threw all over the place on them.

1:34:27Bill Simmons:The Rams moved the ball the whole game. So why is this a juggernaut?

1:34:32Zach Lowe:Who said it's a juggernaut? It's been traded that way. I don't think it is. All of this, to me, lines up with the priors and what we have observed over the entirety of the season, which is to say, you know, that Seattle was sort of power rated in a certain place near the top of the league for going on. However many weeks you want to say 12 weeks now, 13 weeks. Yeah. And the Patriots have been ascending. They weren't rated at the top at the beginning of the season because they lost to the Raiders and they lost to the Steelers. So it's taken some time for this for the Patriots, you know, the true Patriots version of this team to reveal itself.

1:35:12Zach Lowe:15 to 16 wins. And the playoff games didn't really instill a shit ton of confidence from the offensive side, right? Okay, but why are people throwing out the weather part?

1:35:24Bill Simmons:That's the part I don't get. Why are people discounting this? Sunday night against the Chargers, freezing. Houston game was one of the coldest games in the history of the franchise. And then Denver blizzard in the second half. Not to mention zero wind chill.

1:35:39Zach Lowe:It is fine in terms of the weather thing. he also played a guy who's

1:35:44Bill Simmons:we got lucky

1:35:45Zach Lowe:that's like if they just go up

1:35:47Bill Simmons:10-0 I think the Pats probably lose yeah I also don't know if Seattle has the type of team that I would be the most worried about from a defensive standpoint against the Pats it's the guys that weren't like the Will Anderson type Benito like those are the guys that the Pats just the tackles have had trouble just staying in front of and they've had to change their offense in a bunch of ways to chip those guys second protection Seattle's like a push up the middle that's where they get their pressure they don't get a ton of sacks and Lawrence is the best guy they have he's very good but we've been okay like blocking those guys so I don't know I think you can throw in them is there a cornerback on Seattle you love

1:36:29Zach Lowe:it's just a very solid secondary everybody's solid and they get the benefit of pressure from that front that makes quarterbacks, you know, the quarterbacks aren't sitting back there getting to third reads.

1:36:44Bill Simmons:And the Darnold pressure stats are fantastic. I mean, he's basically in the bottom five in a bunch of different categories if you can actually get in his ass, which I think the Patriots can do. And I really think people got thrown off by those two San Francisco games when they had this patchwork team that included Keon White, who we waived. We basically traded him for a seventh round pick and he's playing all the time for the Niners. It just wasn't a good defense. They did an okay job against the Rams, blocking them and stuff. But I'm also not positive how good the Rams defense was. Like we saw the Panthers going up and down on them.

1:37:19Zach Lowe:Rams up front are super solid. Solid. And all the numbers support that. Not amazing. They're not Houston. But are the Patriots amazing up front? I think with Williams back, it's going to be really hard to run on them. There's no question that both teams are taking away the run. So this is the true fascinating challenge. The QBs. versus McDaniel, right? And we're going to have to see some wrinkles out of these offenses, some things we haven't seen. Right. And that's why I think all of the Kenneth Walker enthusiasm is well-placed. He's super dynamic. And as you see him as the principal guy getting touches, I've been impressed by like, oh, look at how he moves.

1:38:01Zach Lowe:Right. He moves, you know, kind of in a Bichon way.

1:38:04Bill Simmons:But he's only a 17 and 19 carry game guy. We've never seen him have more carries than that. I think their backup's terrible.

1:38:13Zach Lowe:It makes no sense whatsoever for them to rush 19 times, try and rush that many times against the Patriots.

1:38:19Bill Simmons:Well, some props that I was looking at, and Sal and I went over some of these. We have to make three picks, right, for Ringer 107?

1:38:27Zach Lowe:You're asking me?

1:38:28Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think it's three. How the hell would I know? It was four, four, four. three, maybe it's five. Is it five?

1:38:37Zach Lowe:It could not be five. That's too many.

1:38:38Bill Simmons:I think it's three. Four, five. Maybe it was five, five, four, three. That's what it was. Five, five, four, three. America loves this. Yeah. Great contest. The fantasy guys have a chance to win. They're like, what's the prize? I was like, there's no prize. We're going to pretend this contest never happened. Figure out a better version of it next year. um Ramondre 10 plus yards rushing in the first quarter

1:39:07Bill Simmons:that one jumped out to me why because I think the Pats are the way they've done they've been very conservative in these first quarters and I think they're going to establish the run and they probably have two run plays for that first quarter that they feel like they can get on Seattle and I just think they're going to test them and try to do it so they can set up the play action for the next couple quarters. So I was looking at one parlay. It was Ramondre 10-plus rushing yards first quarter with the over of 36.5 points for the game. I think 36.5, I like that number because it's really rare for a Super Bowl to go lower than that.

1:39:42Bill Simmons:Like the only one I could think of is Rams-Pats like eight years ago. Two teams are going to get to 37 points. They're running like crazy plays, right? Like what are the odds? You don't like it? Well, I'm worried about a 24-10 game. Interesting. I don't think either team is going to score 10 points or less. Okay. I just don't think that Seattle is going to be able to move the ball at least a little bit. And then just the Pats, if it's normal weather, I don't see how they're going to get shut down. I'd be really surprised by that. I don't think the Seattle team defensively is like some of these other great defenses we've had.

1:40:21Bill Simmons:It's not the OO Ravens. It's not the Seahawks against the Broncos. It's not the Patriots against the Rams in that Super Bowl.

1:40:28Zach Lowe:But they're certainly as good as the three defenses that the Patriots just played and had a ton of trouble with. They're certainly as good as those three defenses. Well, I don't think they're as good as Houston's defense.

1:40:39Bill Simmons:They're in the neighborhood. But solid weather this game, unless it starts raining, which is 30 % chance. I don't know. It's going to be 61 degrees. Why are you so captivated by the weather? Because I think the Pats had trouble in bad weather. They were a different team. I watched them all year. They just didn't get the same explosive plays. All year, they were getting explosive plays. They didn't get them in those three games in the same way.

1:41:04Zach Lowe:Yeah, because those defenses are really fucking good. They're the three best defenses that the Patriots played. I know, but come on.

1:41:09Bill Simmons:They basically played two and a half halves.

1:41:10Zach Lowe:I'm not slicing that apple in half. I'll give you a little bit. I'll give you a quarter chunk of an apple in terms of the weather, but I'm not giving you half the apple. Like the weather?

1:41:20Bill Simmons:Ramondre. Yeah, it's funny though, because the Rams-Bears was 2017. The Rams offense looked like shit the whole game. People were like, ah, the weather. So why did they get the weather? It was the weather. That was colder. Same thing for the Pats. It wasn't colder. It was the same. The Houston game was colder than the Bears game. We had the freezing sleet stuff. Drake May over 225 pass rush combined. 225 pass rush. So you, we both feel pretty good. I mean, he basically gets around 190 to 200 passing and 30 to 35 rushing, some combination. He might be able to beat that by himself, especially if they can't run the ball.

1:42:01Bill Simmons:You put that with Pats plus seven and a half, that's minus 120.

1:42:08Bill Simmons:JSN, one reception every quarter. What do you think the odds are? Just one. Just one reception. Little north of even? Plus 100.

1:42:20Zach Lowe:look at this

1:42:22Bill Simmons:yeah alright I don't feel bad about that one catch a quarter for JSN figure like bubble screen over the middle one deep pass Seattle has the ball once a quarter he's just not gonna touch the ball on a drive he's gonna have touch ball every drive seems like it they certainly will be featuring him it seems Lawrence Sack plus 120 I think is an awesome bet yeah The Pats gave up five sacks in three games. And really, it probably would have been more if they hadn't gone so conservative in the second half of the Denver game.

1:42:55Zach Lowe:You mean five sacks a game? 15 total sacks? Yes. Yes, they did. They did do that. It probably would have been more

1:43:00Bill Simmons:if the Blizzard hadn't come. A.J. Barner rushing TD, 18-1. That's fun. That's just the tush push on the one-yard line. That's a fun one. 18-1. They played this game 18 times? That's not going to happen once?

1:43:15Zach Lowe:Yeah.

1:43:16Bill Simmons:50 bucks out of my pocket on that one. Tonga touchdown mentioned this on Sunday with Mike Vrabel doing the I'm going to pass it forward to the guy who's not a skill player near the end zone that's 75 to 1 wanted to fight that Drake May's second quarter over 71 and a half passing receiving yards

1:43:39Bill Simmons:say that again Drake May second quarter only 71 and a half passing receiving yards that's minus 112 12. So you figure you get the ball. Passing and receiving. I don't know what that means. I'm sorry.

1:43:50Zach Lowe:Pass rush. Oh, pass and rush. Yeah, my bad. Okay, okay. So one run for 11 yards. Figure you get the ball at least twice in the second quarter. Maybe even a third time. Can't turn the ball over. No.

1:44:07Bill Simmons:Can't have three and out. This team has always been slow first quarter. Yeah. Kind of gained steam second quarter. I thought that was a good one.

1:44:14Zach Lowe:Well, they have an outstanding record. over the course of the season, in terms of first half, they've been dominant straight up and against the spread first half, the Patriots half. Well, that leads me to the next pick.

1:44:30Bill Simmons:Patriots, first half tie, second half Patriots win. Shregs, where's Shregs at? What do you think that is for this game? It's a big number. First half tie, Patriots win second. Half in the game. Plus, is that like 12 to 1? 27 to 1.

1:44:59Bill Simmons:Oh, man. 10-10 at halftime? 3-3? 7-7? I don't mind the tie at the half.

1:45:05Zach Lowe:I really don't.

1:45:06Bill Simmons:Could be 17-17. It's one of my favorite bets.

1:45:12Bill Simmons:Barnard, just to score a TD, is plus 230. so you get all touch-push stuff plus anything around the goal line that's not JSN or Cup. I don't hate it. Ramondre over 49 and a half yards rushing. I don't know. Ramondre most rushing yards in the game plus 270. Huh.

1:45:38Joe House:If he fumbles, will they keep giving him the ball?

1:45:41Bill Simmons:He hasn't fumbled in three months. I understand. so the remandre plus 270 my question is if the patriots shut down walker which they've every running back they've gone against i think with milton williams in the game has been what 52 yards and under something like that i don't think anyone's gotten a 60 on them yeah there's a there's

1:46:00Zach Lowe:a thing where if milton williams has played in the game more than 50 of the snaps on defense no running back has rushed for over 50 yards i think i think that's the stat okay so could

1:46:13Bill Simmons:Ramondre get to 58 and Walker's like 17 for 49 and I have Ramondre plus 270. Plus 270 is the catch with that one.

1:46:23Zach Lowe:My, my issue isn't Walker. My issue is your other running back. Cause what if he pops one? Yep.

1:46:31Bill Simmons:Well, that's the other one that Sal and I talked about the other day. The, the Henderson, uh, I think 80 plus yards was 25 to one.

1:46:39Zach Lowe:Yeah. The Henderson ladder makes some sense to me, Like little, you know, 10th of a unit plays, you know, whatever, couple of, you know, 20 buck plays here and there.

1:46:51Bill Simmons:25 to one. He's broken a 65 yarder and a 69 yarder. Yeah. One of my favorite, favorite bets, Matt Collins, 50 plus receiving yards, plus 310. I talked about this with Sal on Sunday. In the bigger games before he got hurt, he was always prominently involved with, and And he's probably, other than Diggs, the favorite receiver for Bane, like a big third down guy. He always seems to get like a 28-yarder over the middle or something. I like this Hollins. I like getting involved in Hollins. Cooper Cup, over 40-plus yards, plus 138. So the case here is he's going to play a ton of snaps.

1:47:33Bill Simmons:They need him for the blocking. I think the Pats are just going to try to take out Smith and the Jigba completely. They're not going to. but they're going to try. Because they have the right. They have Gonzalez. They have Marcus Jones. I can stay with them on the short stuff. They're just going to shift everything to him and Cup's going to be out there all the time. And does Cup become like, fine, you're giving us this. We'll keep taking it. Kind of thing. 40 plus seemed low to me. I thought he was weirdly essential for them in those playoff games, even if his stats didn't reflect it, right?

1:48:03Zach Lowe:He made, you know, in many respects, the play of the game on that conversion.

1:48:12Bill Simmons:any defensive or special teams touchdown. I wish this line was better. It's plus 210. Nah, I'm not messing with that. It doesn't seem high enough, right? Yeah. It doesn't seem high enough. There's some Marcus Jones Super Bowl MVP stuff that we talked about Sunday. That's 100 to 1. A couple of people have mentioned this MVP one to me if the Pats win. Milton Williams at 225-1. What's the scenario for him here? Like a sack fumble, he gets it. A second sack.

1:48:48Zach Lowe:He recovers it.

1:48:49Bill Simmons:The Seahawks can't run at all.

1:48:51Zach Lowe:He lumbers into the end zone on one.

1:48:53Bill Simmons:Pats don't do a lot on offense, so it's like a 17-6 type game.

1:49:00Zach Lowe:MVP for him means it was a strip sack fumble, he recovers it himself, and he runs it into the end zone.

1:49:06Bill Simmons:He gets a safety. That's the play. Like he just kind of takes over the game.

1:49:09Zach Lowe:Yeah.

1:49:10Bill Simmons:I thought 225 was high. Big number. Anything, what's been your favorite stuff? What have you been looking at? I know you've been on Ringer Gambling Show.

1:49:20Zach Lowe:Yeah, I mean, I'm all over all of the Kenneth Walker, you know, that's the most popular bet, I think, that's out there. And all anybody's talked about for two weeks is Kenneth Walker receiving yards. But I think that that fits exactly the way that Seattle's going to try and play this. I like some of the... Is that too popular? It might be too popular. Yeah, I mean, you know, I like the idea of both quarterbacks throwing an interception. I'll play it individually and together. Yeah. I think there are going to be turnovers in this game. The May rushing yards, you know, these are, this is all bread and butter stuff, stuff that people have covered, but these are the ones that I've actually bet.

1:50:04Zach Lowe:Like what's on my card. Hunter Henry over in terms of yardage. I think that's going to be an important part. The one thing that... You're going to shock. Seattle. Well, these were all bets that were available as soon as the market opened and then I bet and then prices have changed. Yeah. But this is...

1:50:27Zach Lowe:Those all make sense to me. That's the script. We did a couple crazy ones. with the cousin Sal this week, I bet on Shahid to at some point exceed 19 and a half miles per hour on the next gen stats as a ball, you know, carrying the ball. And I think you get the benefit of a, of a kick return. So if he gets, gets out and gets going a little bit or, or, you know, gets a catch out on the perimeter and gets going 19 and a half miles per hour, that was that's plus four that was a nice number not no no not plus 420 i can't remember no that was minus 114 for him to go over 19 and a half is that on fandle yes yes it's it's in the specials there's a bunch of guys you can gamble on their their their highest speed will they get to 18 and a half miles an hour yes or no she needs 19 miles an hour yeah but he would have to make a

1:51:23Bill Simmons:big play at that point.

1:51:24Zach Lowe:You need him at 20 miles an hour. So you need him either in a kick return capacity or a default capacity.

1:51:31Bill Simmons:If you're going to do that, why not just bet on him to have a touchdown? You could. If he's running 20 miles an hour, that means he's running in the end zone.

1:51:40Zach Lowe:He could run 20 miles an hour and get tackled. It takes the pressure off of getting in the end zone.

1:51:46Bill Simmons:That's pretty good. I like you mentioned the walker. So

1:51:54Bill Simmons:25 plus rushing yards for him. I'm sorry, receiving yards is plus 114. Yeah. 30 is plus 162. That's one real route that goes for like 22 yards, which is the play every Patriots fan is terrified of in this game. With the slow linebackers and something designed and the receiver coming out, the running back receiver coming out in space and making a play.

1:52:16Zach Lowe:Absolute favorite. Love it.

1:52:19Bill Simmons:So that's 25. 25, we could make that one of the bets, one of the ringer bets. I support it. I endorse it wholeheartedly. 25 plus. You know who else is 25 plus? Matt Collins. Minus 114, 25 plus receiving yards could also be a ringer one for us. You like that one?

1:52:42Zach Lowe:I like both of those. How many do we have to do?

1:52:45Bill Simmons:I don't know. I'll just do, I'll do four. I don't even know the contest. People can choose. Um, the, yeah, the people, so we like Collins. We like Walker. Do you like Lawrence getting a sack?

1:52:56Zach Lowe:Yes. Love that. Adore it. Yes. Huge. Big time. Bigly. Yes. Do it.

1:53:02Bill Simmons:And did you like, did you like, uh, JSN to get a reception every quarter at plus 100?

1:53:09Zach Lowe:That's fine.

1:53:11Bill Simmons:That's a good one. All right. So here's what we're doing now. I really like the over though. Did you like Pats plus 7.5? I do like the Barner one too. Pats plus 7.5 would Drake over 225 passing rushing yards, minus 120? Or would you rather do Pats plus 4.5? I have Pats plus 10.5 and under 51.5.

1:53:45Zach Lowe:That makes me nervous. You don't like the under? I just think Super Bowl's weird shit happens. That's a true story. You just have... The lid would really have to come off. The thing that's crazy is you have the number one and number two most efficient pass offenses. Right. And you have the top two run defenses when Milton Williams plays. So what is that going to push the teams into? It's why I think you're Ramondre that it's interesting to me that 10 yards in the first quarter bit because that's the zag for the Patriots. Can we let's let's take a shot at establishing the run. Right. Maybe an outside run kind of concept.

1:54:28Bill Simmons:So Pat's plus 10 and a half is minus 310 on FanDuel. And that would mean the over would have to go to. 39 and a half. pats 10 and a half over basically 40 plus points and up we could do as a bet what's the price

1:54:50Joe House:that's minus 119 okay

1:54:54Zach Lowe:you prefer an over to an under

1:54:59Bill Simmons:i think both teams are going to move the ball better than people realize okay because um I just think that Seattle's gonna be able to throw the ball in the pats Carl Davis will have at least one PI right um and just in general the Super Bowl is when you break out all your shit this is like I'm having guests over and it's like do I want to just put chips and pretzels out for them or am I gonna fucking make shit am I making people wood-fired pizzas and am Did I go to the market and buy some cheese? And is there like a salami prosciutto plate? Like, you're going all out.

1:55:37Zach Lowe:Yeah.

1:55:38Bill Simmons:And you're like, I have guests coming.

1:55:40Zach Lowe:Let's go. It's something delicious. The pork secreto. Get the pork secreto. That guy who cooks at your house. Made me some pork. Right before you passed out.

1:55:53Bill Simmons:So you like the, are you okay with the over 39 and a half? Yeah, yeah. I am okay with that. Okay. I really want to do the Pats plus four and a half though, just as a statement.

1:56:05Zach Lowe:Go ahead. Go ahead. You can. You're the decider. I'm just the consigliere.

1:56:14Okay.

1:56:14Bill Simmons:The Ringer 107 is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. All spreads are subject to change. On this podcast in the playoffs, we are seven and five with the spreads. the actual ringer 107 picks have not been as good because we've gotten too artsy fartsy first pick pats plus four and a half i just think this is a three-point game i think you're getting a point and a half on the pat side because of how they looked in the weather and because people aren't sure about drakeman's shoulder i think drakeman's shoulder is fine second bet we like these two props two guys to get 25 plus receiving yards i just thought we could have probably parlayed these together.

1:56:57Bill Simmons:Well, we can do that. Can we do that? Not to do it for the show,

1:57:01Zach Lowe:but we can do it.

1:57:02Bill Simmons:No, but we could do that as the bet. America can do it. Matt Collins, 25 plus yards. That's minus 114. Anytime he's actually been healthy, which has been most of the season, he plays a lot of snaps. They need him for blocking and may go to him. So that's one. Kenneth Walker, 25 plus receiving yards at minus 114. For the wheel route, We can do that one or we can do Lawrence getting a sack for Seattle at plus 120.

1:57:31Zach Lowe:Isn't the Walker prop at 25 yards plus money? Because the regular prop is like 20 and a half or 21 and a half. It's not all the way up to 25. Receiving yards? I just looked at it. I thought you were giving us a little bit of a slight plus money bet. Receiving yards alternate. I'm looking at it right now. yeah 25 plus is plus 114 yeah plus yeah plus that's what that's what i thought my bad plus 114

1:58:07Bill Simmons:and then uh or lauren sack at plus 120 what do you like more we have to choose probably because i want to do pats plus 10 and a half with the over of 39 and a half okay uh

1:58:24Zach Lowe:I'm going to choose wrong. I'm going to play both. Play both. You're listening to this show. Play both. I will choose for our...

1:58:31Bill Simmons:For Ringer 107. We'll play both of these, but for Ringer 107, we are doing... Walker over 25. Okay. Those are our four. Pats plus four and a half. Pats plus 10 and a half. Parlayed with the over 39 and a half. Hollins, 25 plus yards. Walker, 25 plus yards. Apologies to Trevor Lawrence getting a sack. Not Trevor Lawrence. Marcus Lawrence. Plus 120. Remandre, 10 plus rushing yards first quarter. Over 36 and a half. We like that one. JSN, one reception each quarter. Plus 100. Love that one. I love the tie in the first half with the Patriots who went in the second half. 27 to 1. That's on Fando. Go ahead and bet it.

1:59:13Bill Simmons:AJ Barner rushing TD 18-1. We both like both QBs to throw an interception. And especially both QBs to throw an interception together in the same game is plus 200. Cup over 40 plus yards plus 138. Do love that one. And then I like Ramondre for most rushing yards plus 270 because that would mean the Patriots have shut down the Seattle defense. And just for the record, I think the Patriots are going to win the game. And I think the final score is going to be 24 to 20 New England Patriots.

1:59:53Joe House:Okay.

1:59:54Bill Simmons:By the way, I also like that. There's a bet with the Seahawks kicker, seven plus points. Yes. I think that's around even. Okay. But I thought that was a good one too. Give us your Super Bowl pick while we're here. Go ahead. Pick Seattle.

2:00:06Zach Lowe:Go ahead. Be another media stooge. No, I'm a coward. and it's going to be the same pick for the pregame show. I do have a whole bunch of props for that and we're getting together. It's going to be great. Sunday morning, maybe all weekend long, it might be up. Sunday morning, ringer pregame show. Pregame show. I don't mind previewing this. I am playing the Patriots plus 10.5 parlayed with under 51.5. That is available at minus 122. if you want to get it closer to minus 110, exactly minus 110, under 50 and a half. But I want the possibility of a 51-point game in terms of a total coming in. I feel like 51 is a very fair number.

2:00:52Zach Lowe:So under 51 and a half, Pats plus 10 and a half. The Patriots haven't lost. They've only lost three games and all three were by one score. This is not the game that I think they're going to lose by margin. So that is my favorite play.

2:01:05Bill Simmons:And I'm probably, I'm going to wait until Sunday. I'll tweet out something, but there's something with the Patriots plus eight and a half.

2:01:15Bill Simmons:Something lower with May's total. And then something with the over or the under that I think could be around plus 100, but I'm going to wait to see where the line goes. I think the line's going to drop. Why? I think it's going to end up at four. Oh, you think some Patriot money's coming? I do. Okay. I think people are waiting to see what the Drake Mays shoulder situation was.

2:01:37Zach Lowe:Well, let me ask you this. I'm going to give gentle pushback. When the line was set, it was, you know, Sunday night after the conference championship games were done. It was at five and a half. It moved down to four and a half. Because it was too high. But what I'm saying is at the time that the line was set and moved in that direction, the Drake Mays shoulder stuff was not part of it. And the number hasn't moved at all over the course of this entire saga with the great, great shoulder moves around Friday.

2:02:05Bill Simmons:Okay. And speaking of Friday, you and I, you're coming up to Boston. I'm going to Boston. We're going to heat Celtics with Jacko. And then, uh, and my daughter, you get to get to have drinks with my daughter.

2:02:19Zach Lowe:She's the best.

2:02:20Bill Simmons:There'll be non-alcoholic drinks for her because she's not 21 yet.

2:02:23Zach Lowe:Um, she's just sipping Diet Coke.

2:02:25Bill Simmons:Yeah, as far as we know, she's having a Coke. And then Saturday, we were going up to our alma mater, the College of the Holy Cross. Let's go. Where we ran about 500 ,000 pick and rolls. We did. And all kinds of two-on-two, three-on-three, and five-on-five games. We're going back because they are dedicating the court of the main basketball stadium to the one and only Bob Cousy, who we get to meet. And I can't wait. It's going to be awesome. All right, I'll see you in Boston House. Good to see you. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo and Jack Wilson, everybody else on the ringer side. This was a really fun week.

2:02:59Bill Simmons:I'm going to be back on Sunday, live on Netflix, right after Super Bowl LX. And in the meantime, over the weekend, you can watch Ace Ventura because that's going to be the next rewatchable. Bye, house. See you, buddy. Thanks, buddy. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York for Louisiana.

2:03:48Bill Simmons:and call 877-770-7867.