NFL Free Agency Predictions, an NBA Power Poll, and Tatum’s Return With Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, Michael Pina, and Joe House

12:46Bill Simmons:Well, they do have that ninth pick, and you guys are diving into the draft now. I saw our friend Mina on TV pushing the running back. Number nine, right around where you don't want to... I just feel like what happened with the Raiders last year, I would just never take a running back in the top 10. I don't care if it's Bo Jackson. I think I've just landed at that point in 2026. You have to be, you would have to immediately be the best guy at your position for me to consider it. There's so many other ways to patch together. Anyway, I'm going seven wins for them. I, uh, and I'm fully ready for the full rollercoaster ride of by July.

13:23Bill Simmons:It's like, you know, I'm kind of intrigued by the chiefs.

13:26Danny Heifetz:Yeah.

13:27Bill Simmons:And then I'm ready to ride on the rollercoaster with them.

13:30Danny Heifetz:We already have an idea for an episode we're going to do in July. And it's going to be that the week, I think the odyssey comes out in July. We're going to do the wax in our ears like we're not listening to any training camp hype. Like we're just not listening to the siren songs of training camp.

13:41Bill Simmons:Who was the worst guy last year for the fantasy training camp hype? Who was the guy that roped us in and then drove us into a telephone pole?

13:49Michael Pina:Maybe Justin Fields.

13:52Bill Simmons:Oh, see, I never believed that one.

13:54Michael Pina:For fantasy in particular, I would say he was a big time sleeper.

13:58Bill Simmons:Does Ibuka count even though he was great for eight weeks and then just became a serial killer? Ibuka and the fantasy team?

14:05Danny Heifetz:There's a list of guys that I'm always like, people got hurt and they don't give them credit for being hurt. I think in terms of hype being roped in, frankly, I think the teams that won the offseason last year were the Patriots and the Raiders. And the Patriots made the Super Bowl and the Raiders did the first pick. And I think that's also the story to free agency to me. It's like some teams can go in and do what the Patriots did, but it's usually like the Raiders.

14:23Bill Simmons:So Gentry maybe was another one. Okay. Yeah, he was up there. I asked you guys for a list. Get us ready for the next, what do we think? It's really like three weeks, but it's ultimately eight days when all the shit goes down. When we find out like, wow, they gave Malik Willis 90 million. Oh my God. We're going to find out. So you made a list. Let's just go from top to bottom. Who'd you have number one? Heifetz?

14:49Danny Heifetz:Sure. I'll go first. I think outside the Chiefs thing, I think the number one thing I think is Kyler Murray is going to sign somewhere for the veteran minimum. And I don't know if people are ready for that.

14:56Michael Pina:This is a wild story, I think.

14:59Danny Heifetz:So just the prologue, if people are listening and kind of shocked, Arizona is going to cut Kyler Murray and Kyler Murray is going to sign somewhere for the vet minimum which is like one year,$1.3 million the Cardinals are going to, it's kind of like where Russell Wilson got a cup of the Broncos and got paid basically to play for the Steelers, Cardinals are going to basically pay Kyler$37 million to play somewhere for his next team and Kyler, whatever you think in the words of a wise old man that I have worked for I think Kyler Murray has been so overrated that he's now actually underrated and Kyler Murray for$1.3 million as a league-tiltering player.

15:32Danny Heifetz:Steven Ruiz has done a great job writing about this at the Ringer the last month where we can go through the teams, but I think Kyler Murray, I think there's four teams that make sense, and I think the list is short. I think it's the Vikings, which is the favorite, and then there's the Dolphins, the Falcons maybe, and I actually think the shadow team is the Steelers, but I think it's going to be one of those four teams. It's funny because I thought

15:51Bill Simmons:you were going to say the Panthers is one of the four teams. Ooh. Basically just like, is he just better than Bryce Young? What are we doing? or are they the same type of quarterback and we could have both and just let them fight it out. You agree with those four teams Danny had, DK?

16:07Michael Pina:Yes, I think, I personally think Minnesota has the most hype right now and it's kind of the most momentum. It kind of makes a lot of sense that he would do that because of the weapons around him. They're going to be playing in a dome. The coach in particular, I think is the big thing here, Kevin O 'Connell. So the Vikings are kind of Yeah, he did so good with J.J.

16:26Bill Simmons:McCarthy. I mean, I know,

16:27Michael Pina:No, but if you look at everybody else, that just makes me, how bad is JJ McCarthy if he couldn't get anything out of him? Well, it seems like they're out on him, right? That's been a lot of the tea leaves being dropped. We read between the lines on everything they've said that they're not going to be relying on him this year. It's kind of like that thing where we're not giving up on him, but we're just not going to rely on him right now.

16:47Bill Simmons:Well, I've been making this joke forever on pods and columns. Your QB is your relationship.

16:53Michael Pina:Yeah.

16:54Bill Simmons:This is like, if Heifetz is in a relationship right now and if he was just like, yeah, no, it's still, we're still, but I'm going to date other people. But like, then you know it's over. That's what it's like with McCarthy. You can't dabble around and try to bring in all these other people while also claiming, we know how this is going to go. This was the Colts last year with Anthony Richardson. The moment they put, the moment it was out there, it was a wrap. And this is going to be a wrap.

17:20Danny Heifetz:What are you saying that the Vikings, the Kevin O 'Connell giving the one hour meetings with J.G. McCarthy every week with the year he was out. That wasn't enough time.

17:26Bill Simmons:I think he's looking back at that now as a giant sunk cost. And he could have just played Fortnite or learned a skill. Maybe played the clarinet. He could have learned things. Maybe gotten a better appreciation of jazz. I don't know. I guess I'm coming back to whether Kyler Murray is good or not. And you mentioned the overrated, underrated thing. I've just never thought he was a top 15 guy, like a guy you could win multiple rounds with. I still go back to that. What was it? The Rams or the Seahawks when they lost by like 30 in that wildcard game on a Monday night. And I talked myself into him as I think I had the Cardinals and you just knew right away.

18:06Bill Simmons:It was like, oh, this is two years ago.

18:09Danny Heifetz:Well, because this season is also Thursday night football game where Sam Darnold had a game winning drive against the Cardinals and then as a Seahawk and then Sam Darnold went and won the Super Bowl. I know you've blocked out the Super Bowl. And again, DK is a Seahawks fan.

18:22Bill Simmons:I wasn't talking about Super Bowl winning quarterback Sam Darnold who almost threw us three picks in the first. I had a whole really sad Pat's fan text thread about the three picks we almost got from Sam Darnold early when our whole strategy was throw us one, Sam. And he was kind of thinking about it, but just never did it.

18:39Danny Heifetz:I mean, it was the Seahawks' first Super Bowl, so DK's really excited.

18:42Bill Simmons:Yeah, congrats on your first win. I know it must have been nice to finally taste that champagne. Do any of us think you could win three playoff rounds with Kyler Murray? Like, honestly.

18:53Danny Heifetz:no maybe i think the darnold super bowl the darnold super bowl i think has to be a slice of humble pie for everybody even i believed in darnold i think more than most people and even i would have been hesitant to say that darnold will just win 14 games again and win the super bowl but i think what it shows is there is is he kyler good enough to be a franchise quarterback and you know not even just like a patrick mums joe burrow but like even what trevor lawrence was at the second half of last season i don't know but i think the darnold thing is a slice of humble pie of look what certain guys can do when they're surrounded by elite talent like Jimmy Garoppolo or Brock Purdy with the Niners and like a different kind of quarterback but I think yeah the lesson of the last five years in the NFL is if you can't draft a franchise quarterback or acquire one you need to take a a swing on a court on a top five pick that was ruined by a bad team Donald from the Jets Baker Mayfield on the Browns like I kind of think of Josh Allen had gone to the Jets he would have sucked too and I look at the Cardinals are sneakily just as bad as those teams but it's warm weather so no one cares I think like what if the Cardinals ruined Kyler Murray.

19:48Danny Heifetz:And like, this is one of those athletes that he was, he was a top 10 pick at MLB too. So yeah, it's like, oh, the, the video game clause and his contract and the studying and the, is he a leader? The body language, sure. But that he's getting paid a million dollars to be a starting quarterback. We trip over ourselves to the rookie quarterback contracts. That's like 10 times more money to be the rookie quarterback. So I think he's so cheap that a team like Minnesota, I do think you change up what you do schematically to bring them in because if the alternative is JJ McCarthy or Derek Carr, I'm like, I think you do have to give Kyler a shot.

20:15Bill Simmons:Derek Hart. I just feel like it's fool's gold. Like, it makes sense in August. I always felt like you could really feel his height in some of these games. Like, just, he can't throw to the middle. Like, he just can't. And a lot of that stuff has to be rolling out side to side, which the better the defense is, it's not going to be there. And, you know, it looks great when you're playing a shit team. I don't know.

20:36Michael Pina:I think stylistically, it is, there's some similarities to, like, Russell Wilson late in his career in terms of having, basically, you can scheme away a big chunk of the field against their offense, whether it's Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson. Basically, Wilson couldn't attack the middle of the field. Kyler's, I don't think, quite as bad about that, but he does tend to spin away from pressure and try to get outside, make things happen outside the pocket, and then when you start to lose some of your speed and athleticism, or just in his case, willingness to run, because I think there was a couple years there where every preseason it was like, Kyler's not going to want to run.

21:09Michael Pina:He's going to try and play from the pocket. You saw this with Russell Wilson throughout his whole career. like you know try and cut down on the but that's the curse of the running qb we're gonna go through

21:18Bill Simmons:that with lamar yeah these guys hit their late 20s and teams are like we don't want those guys

21:22Danny Heifetz:take the hits anymore yeah yeah when you have any kind of talent when you have any kind of um physical like deficiency at the pro level whether it's will campbell with his arm length or kyler murray with the height you have these other things that make up for it the superior athleticism will campbell goes in injured reserve yeah and it's not a shot it's like oh well then he's a rookie 22 injured reserve returns okay now the athleticism you need for the arm length thing kyler it's like when you lose the crazy athleticism and you're shorter that hurts your game i do think though if like i look at miami whose offensive coordinator is bobby slowick they run the

21:50Bill Simmons:49ers off see better than two no question yeah they can't like oh you don't think they could have them because i think like no they would have to change their offense to have who else

21:59Danny Heifetz:are they gonna have well bobby slowick can't because like he doesn't know any like they can't kyler cannot do under center play action like he can't do that he needs to be shotgun outside quick game vertical shots outside so the dolphins i don't think you do it the team that i think can do it if it's not minnesota craig was so mad at me it's pittsburgh because that's a rogers place you don't think of rogers and kyler being similar but if you look at a map where they throw

22:18Michael Pina:i think it makes stephen reese kind of does make a lot of sense for kyler it does but it wasn't his

22:25Bill Simmons:deep ball stuff like some of the worst of this decade thought there was like some really bad

22:30Michael Pina:deep ball stats with kyler he he was kind of i think he's been kind of all over the place to be honest um i just think of how he played when he had hopkins on the on his team dondre hopkins and kind of just willingness to throw it up to him. That does kind of come to my mind. But yeah, I believe he's been kind of all over the place with his deep ball accuracy.

22:47Bill Simmons:Heifetz has allowed no more shots at any of my teams because I'll just start making Giants jokes. I'm just laying that warning down now. DK, what's your first one?

22:58Michael Pina:So to play off of the Kyler domino, I think the next big domino is going to be where Malik Willis signs. And he's probably going to sign for 20 to 30 million per year. Oh, he's getting it.

23:07Bill Simmons:It's starting with a three. There's no question. It's a three.

23:12Michael Pina:So I think this is fascinating because if you look at some of the numbers that he's put up in limited starts, I think he has like three or four starts over the last couple of years, like six or seven appearances in games. His numbers are ridiculous. Like truly, he looks like an elite quarterback. If you just look at those numbers, obviously it's a very small sample. And I saw this tweet from Kurt Warner the other day. Basically, if you look at all of the dropbacks that he had as a starter, the last two years. He could, if you take out screens and quick throws under five yards, he has 28 real dropbacks.

23:46Michael Pina:So you're talking about... A million per year per dropback.

23:50Bill Simmons:Yeah, pretty much. So it's a gimmick offense only for him.

23:53Michael Pina:Gimmick is maybe not the right word, but basically he was utilizing the running game a lot. They weren't putting a lot on his shoulders. They weren't asking him to do all that much in each of these starts. But he was incredibly, incredibly efficient with the football. I mean, he's averaged like 11 and a half yards per attempt and was very good, you know, protect the football.

24:13Bill Simmons:I like that his teammates seemed really in on him, which I think is important when you're talking about the only position where that actually really matters.

24:20Michael Pina:I think Packers fans were in on him too. So he's a really fascinating one. I feel like on the surface, this looks like an obvious you're going to overpay and then he's going to progress badly. But I'm kind of I kind of find myself thinking he might end up being pretty good in the NFL. He was the player coming into the league. When you look at his scouting report, rare physical talent, incredible arm, really, really fast and athletic as a runner. Like he could change the way that you do your, your entire run game basically.

24:49Bill Simmons:And went to the worst possible team and the worst situation. And went to a bad team. You know,

24:53Michael Pina:he, and he was really raw. That was like, he was a third round pick. That was why he went so late in, in the draft is he had a lot of things to clean up. And then he did exactly what you should do, which is develop behind a good starter for a couple of years in a good system with a good coach. Um, and every time he got an opportunity, he did something really impressive. So I don't know. I don't know where the ideal place for him to go is right now. I think a lot of people are connecting him to Arizona.

25:15Bill Simmons:Um, but it's funny that I'm old enough to remember every decade where we had guys like this and how hard it is to figure it out. Going back to Scott Mitchell was one of the all time best ones. There was, you had the Matt Flynn situation in the early 2010s, but we have these guys and it's like small sample size. but if you look at the mixtape, it's like, holy shit. Look at these 20 plays. High-fix seems dubious.

25:40Michael Pina:The Matt Flynn comp irks me a little bit. I know it's both like Packers, going from the Packers quarterback factory or whatever and turning these teams. And Matt Hasselbeck was another one that did it with the Seahawks. He was like a six-round pick. That was a positive one, though, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. But I think when Matt Flynn happened, everyone was very dubious that it was going to be real. And then when you saw him in training camp, you're like, okay, this is, he's not real. When you see Malik Willis throw the football, at least you're like, damn, this guy's got an arm. Matt Flynn was, he just had kind of a noodle arm.

26:12Danny Heifetz:The Matt Flynn thing, I actually think represents why this might be a decent decision. And again, to be clear, when I look at the Malik Willis thing, I look at, I think of that saying, pessimists are often right, and optimists are often rich. And it's like, yeah, Malik Willis probably won't be good in the NFL. Like, that's easy. Like, it's easy to say, like, oh, 30 million for Malik Willis is probably a waste of money. All right, well, if the Cardinals won three games last year, it's like you could argue the entire season was a waste of money. You know what I mean? At some point, every season you win three games is a giant waste of money.

26:38Danny Heifetz:So at that point, the most important thing is to not waste time or opportunities. So the Seahawks, they signed Matt Flynn and they drafted Russell Wilson. You do everything and they hit one. You only have to hit one at every 10 quarterbacks you sign to have a good team. Like the Niners, you don't stop shooting until you get one. Brock Purdy was the seventh round pick. They were going to take a linebacker and they decided to take a quarterback because why wouldn't we? And I think that's the thing. You need the mentality to keep shooting because it's disproportionate upside. Wasting$30 million in one season for the Cardinals, who cares?

27:08Danny Heifetz:Honestly, it's not my mind. Who cares if it's$30 million from Luke Willis?

27:11Bill Simmons:Well, the question is, could it be$120 million for four years or$130 million for four years? I doubt it. $30 million a year? I don't know, man.

27:19Danny Heifetz:Everybody needs a quarterback, right? The upside is that he's 26. Here's the thing. You could, sure, maybe the Cardinals go get Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr or whatever, but then you immediately need a quarterback again. at least if the 20 % chance is Malik Willis is good, then he's 26 years old and he's the fastest quarterback in the NFL. And he has a cannon. The issues we're processing and a lot of the pro game stuff. And that guess what? If the Cardinals sign him, Mike LaFleur is Matt LaFleur's little brothers, the head coach of the Packers. So Matt LaFleur is getting all this credit for Malik Willis turning around.

27:51Danny Heifetz:No one, no one on earth should have a better idea of how to help Malik Willis continue what he was doing than Matt LaFleur's little brother. So look, is it going to work? Probably not. But if it does, you need a quarterback. So you might as well try.

28:03Bill Simmons:One of my favorite moves would be if Vegas traded back out of the first pick, like flip picks with the Jets and then sign Malik Willis because Brady was like, I've studied his tape. I like him. I think he's a really hard one to figure out because like Mitchell had a sample size of some success. But when you also, eye test wise, when you watch him, He was this really slow six foot six guy lefty. It just, you kind of knew he was going to be a bust. Right. Matt Flynn, we barely had any tape on. Steve Walsh was a good one way, way back when, when Dallas had him and either Dallas traded for him or New Orleans was, I can't remember, but at some point he got a shot and he just had no arm.

28:44Bill Simmons:But we actually have tape on Willis succeeding on a good team. And it's not like one game. It's like a few games. And I don't know. To me, the number of 30... What did Sam Darnold get? What did he get last year?

28:57Michael Pina:Three years, 100 million, something like that.

29:01Bill Simmons:I think that's a good range to roll the dice with a QB. Because if you hit, like Seattle did with Darnold, you have somebody on a really good price. You don't hit, you can kind of get out of it. You can move on. Let me take a break and we'll come back and finish this. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. What makes basketball so exciting? all the superior skill on the court. This has been the case my whole life. The craziest thing, I mean, Wemby, stuff he's doing every game. There's two, three Wemby moments a game where you're like, I don't know if I've ever seen that. The number one thing for me is when he does the screen and roll, he's going to the basket, somebody throws him an alley-oop and he just catches it and dunks it without jumping.

29:43Bill Simmons:It's an alley-oop, but it's not an oop. It's just kind of an alley. And every time he does it, I'm like, I've definitely 100 % never seen that anymore. It's a superior play. Superior plays aren't just for the NBA, though. Try Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. And a crisp, refreshing, superior light beer. It's the beer of Max Kellerman. He just told me that. Plus, they're giving you a chance to win courtside seats, custom merch, and more. Michelob Ultra, superior, is worth playing for. Enter now at Michelob Ultra.com slash courtside. Michelob Ultra courtside 25-26. No purchase necessary.

30:19Bill Simmons:open to U.S. Residence 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2025. Ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at makelobaltra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, and prizes and details. All right, was Mac Jones on either of your lists?

30:38Michael Pina:Yeah. Heifetz, you can take this one.

30:40Danny Heifetz:Take it. Well, we just have the whole quarterback musical chairs, but I mean, I think the teams are certainly calling 49ers about Mac Jones, but I don't think the 49ers should trade Mac Jones. I think Niners are saying they'll do a first. I think they'd probably settle for a second, but I think the Niners shouldn't trade Jack Mack Jones unless it's a high pick because Brock Purdy keeps getting hurt and you need a backup quarterback. I think hanging on to Mack Jones.

31:01Michael Pina:I mean, the electrical substation thing is still a problem. Maybe that's why he demanded trade, yeah.

31:06Bill Simmons:Yeah, exactly. What do you think, DK?

31:10Michael Pina:Do I think he's worth a first? Probably not in terms of Mack Jones, but I think I would love to see him get a chance to start again somewhere. I think he's shown enough. especially in like a Shanahan McVay style offense. I think he's shown enough to be a starter. I think there's other guys in this group of musical chairs too. Kirk Cousins, I think, is going to have a chance to be a starter this season. Derek Carr, the rumors on this. What are we doing? The momentum this story has, I feel like we got to at least pay attention to this. Like him coming out of retirement, the Saints trading him. I've heard the Jets are an option for him.

31:43Michael Pina:I don't know if he wants to go play for the Jets.

31:44Bill Simmons:This is like the classic sports amnesia where enough time passed where nobody actually remembers his last couple years. Like, oh, Derek Carr's coming back. I know. It's like, yeah, we had him and he wasn't good.

31:56Michael Pina:He's going to be part of the story at the very least. We got to watch it over the next however long to a couple of weeks. Anthony Richardson is another one that I'm very fascinated to watch. He might not be a starter this year. I think most likely he's going to have to do the Sam Darnold thing and sit in purgatory for a year or two and then hopefully try and prove that he can be a starter.

32:14Bill Simmons:Are we talking NFL or another league? No, I'm talking NFL. The UFL starts soon.

32:18Michael Pina:I still believe in Richardson.

32:21Bill Simmons:What do you believe in?

32:22Michael Pina:His physical talent. It's the same as Malik Willis. Malik Willis... I don't see the Richardson thing at all. Oh, I do. But, I mean, he's going to get at least a chance. They gave him an opportunity to seek a trade. We'll see if he does that. And then the other guy to include here is Tyson Bajant of the Bears. But there's basically just a bunch of... Now I'm intrigued.

32:43Danny Heifetz:And Tua's going to get cut. Kirk Cousins is going to get cut. but Andrew Rogers, if he ever lets us know what he's doing.

32:47Bill Simmons:Tyson Bajan intrigues me legitimately because of the gushing quotes from everybody last two training camps, basically. But I never knew if it was trying to get Caleb more excited to compete or whether they genuinely felt that way. What do you think, Ifitz? 50-50?

33:03Danny Heifetz:No, the Bears love Tyson Bajan. Yeah, that's how it feels. The Bears love him. Ben Johnson at the Combine was appalled at the idea that they might trade him. I think some teams just love their backup and they, no, the Bears are obsessed with Tyson Bajan. They believe that a Caleb got hurt. I think they, every team's like, we have one of the best 30, we have two of the best 32 quarterbacks. So if you ask the teams, it's like there's 60 top 32 quarterbacks, but the Bears actually do think they could keep rolling with Tyson Bajan.

33:28Bill Simmons:Would either of you trade the 33rd pick for Mac Jones, which belongs to the New York Football Jets?

33:36Danny Heifetz:I would think about it if I'm the, I'm the most aggressive person about this. I actually would think about it.

33:40Bill Simmons:I think that's a really, I would think about it for both sides. Yeah. Because ultimately, you're paying Brock Purdy so much money, it almost becomes like a fantasy football thing where you've paid so much for Saquon Barkley or whoever. It's like, well, if he gets hurt, I'm screwed anyway. I would think about it. It would be fun to have Mac Jones on the Jets too. After Sam Darnold beat the Patriots in a Super Bowl, I think all demons could be... Yeah. I'm not afraid of any demons for a former Pats QB. Or Pat's rival either.

34:13Michael Pina:We got to talk about DJ Moore getting traded to the Bills. Yeah. I think, so this is kind of indicative of a, you know, this is what Haifus has been talking about, railing on the post-Chiefs arms race. Basically, the Chiefs are down right now. Maybe this is going to be a mini rebuild year and everyone else kind of wants to go for it. No one expected a team like the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl. No one expected the Patriots to make the Super Bowl. It's enticing. Yeah, and so they're like, that could be us. We could do this. And I think the Bills in particular, among all teams in the NFL, were like, man, we freaking blew it last year.

34:46Michael Pina:We missed our opportunity. We missed our window. And a lot of it had to do with our receivers are just not very good. The swings that they've taken at receiver, Keon Coleman, it just didn't work out in multiple ways. And so... That's the thing.

35:00Bill Simmons:They did try to address it. They just didn't do it correctly. Just didn't hit.

35:04Michael Pina:Yeah. Right. And Keon Coleman, I don't know what happened with him. Obviously, there was talent there, but it was more than just him not fitting schematically, I think, because he was a healthy and active a bunch of times.

35:14Danny Heifetz:Well, it's also professionalism. I think it was the right stuff.

35:16Michael Pina:So, yeah, they just missed. But this one, I think, makes a lot of sense for the Bills. I do think they probably overpaid to get a, you know, they sent a second rounder to get and took on a bunch of his contract to get an old receiver coming off his worst season.

35:29Bill Simmons:It was a miracle trade for Chicago.

35:32Michael Pina:Yeah. I mean, they probably couldn't say yes and hang out fast enough. 100%.

35:40Bill Simmons:Because they weren't happy with DJ Moore like 30 times over the last three years.

35:44Michael Pina:I mean, we made a big joke of it all of last year. Basically, DJ Moore at one point left the field during a play in the 2024 season. And then, was that last year or 2024, Hype?

35:55Bill Simmons:I felt like I was reading a DJ Moore, something that had nothing to do with football story, once every six weeks for the last couple of years.

36:03Michael Pina:He just didn't have a good connection whatsoever with Caleb Williams. It felt like they hated each other. Just kind of one of those things. And so obviously getting a second rounder for him is great for the Bears. But I think the Bills, this does make a lot of sense for him. He can play outside. He's still got juice as an after-the-catch runner. He can get deep. I think this is by far the best quarterback he's played with in his career. I mean, if you look at DJ Moore's history of quarterbacks, it's a whole bunch of very bad quarterbacks and then depending on how you feel about Caleb Williams last year, Caleb Williams.

36:34Michael Pina:So he has an opportunity here to have like a late career renaissance. I think he's 28 or something like that. And I thought a second was too much. I did too.

36:43Bill Simmons:And the other problem is it sets a market for AJ Brown, who's just a better player who I thought teams thought they'd get a second for him. And now you'd be like, well, you gotta be more than that. DJ Moore went for a second.

36:56Michael Pina:Yep. DJ Moore does have history with Joe Brady from the time of the Panthers together, I believe. And so, yeah, I mean, there's some... I think the Bills... Sorry, yeah, I do think the Bills got better. But it was an expensive decision, I guess.

37:11Bill Simmons:I'm calling it what it was. It was a panic trade by the Bills. 100%. This was an all-time. We can't be left at the altar with no wide receiver. We got to get somebody. Oh, DJ Moore, let's just do it now. And I think it was really risky. And I don't know. They've had kind of slightly unreliable guys the last couple years that that didn't go over well and now they just bought another one. So you didn't like it either?

37:35Danny Heifetz:No, the Bills are tilting. I mean, Andrew Grudadaro wrote a piece of the ringer when all the Bills stuff went down that they're just absolutely tilting and the Bills like totally lost the goodwill of the fan base in like 10 days, really 10 hours when the owner comes out and does the press conference and is like, oh, this is just a very rich, very angry man. And the truth is that the Bills lost to the Chiefs, I think four times in the playoffs the last six or seven years. Yeah. And then the Mahomes tears his ACL and the Chiefs are out and the Bills still can't make the AFC championship game. And I think that that sometimes really is painful.

38:05Danny Heifetz:And so they're tilting. And well, then you watch how bad the Pats were in the Super Bowl and you're like, oh my God. Like everyone's freaking out. The Bill, the Broncos with the Bo Nix injury, the Jaguars, the Texans, the Bills, all these teams are looking at the Patriots. No offense that the Patriots helped bad. I'm not offended after how bad we were in the Super Bowl. But yeah, no, I think the Bills are just the top of the line because they lost the division to the Patriots too. And so, yeah, I think this is very much a panic back foot deal.

38:32Bill Simmons:That joke you made about the that could be us, that would be a fun power rankings because I think the number one that could be us team is the Atlanta Falcons.

38:40Danny Kelly:Yeah.

38:41Bill Simmons:Right? New coach. All the advanced metrics are really favorable to them last year. I haven't done any football homework yet, but it just felt like they were the best team in that division. It's kind of stupid they didn't win it. They can make the team better in a bunch of different ways. They don't have a first-round pick, unfortunately, because they traded it. to a guy that might not even be playing next year, but they still have a bunch of talent. And I just felt like they underachieved. And that could be us team because they're in a weird division. Who else would you have? And that could be us sweepstakes, Danny.

39:11Bill Simmons:For 2026? Are the Giants in there?

39:13Danny Heifetz:The Giants are going to be the popular pick, yeah, because they can have a very easy schedule. And the NFC use might be wonderful.

39:18Bill Simmons:Easy schedule, Patriots blueprint, keep Jackson Dart healthy, get another top five pick, spend some money. Try to get anything out of Abdul Carter. That's not just weird stories about him falling asleep and practices.

39:34Danny Heifetz:He's going to be super awake. He's going to be so alert under John Harbaugh.

39:37Bill Simmons:Is Vega said that could be his team or is it just too weird over there? I thought the athletic story this week was strange. About how he had Alex the arrow.

39:45Danny Heifetz:Wait, Deacon, what's the joke you made? In Arrested Development,

39:49Michael Pina:there's a whole episode about a surrogate father who walks around with a camera on his head to help out with George Sr. from prison. he's basically like Tom Brady's eyes and ears on the ground when he's off doing whatever he's doing.

40:03Bill Simmons:He was a big reason why the Brady stuff fell apart with Belichick. I know. And this is where I'm like confused. And nobody really understood what his role was. And, um, yeah, he's like some sort of weird shaman thing. But that's weird. Cause on paper, the Raiders do check a lot of the boxes, right? For the, the big leap team next year. Mendoza is good right away. If their coach is good right away, fourth place schedule. They have skill players. They're going to trade Max Crosby, blah, blah, blah.

40:31Danny Heifetz:I don't know. I mean, Mendoza, I love Mendoza. You would have said I don't know about

40:35Bill Simmons:the Patriots last year. But even Drake May

40:37Danny Heifetz:his rookie year won one game. In games he actually started and finished went like one and seven in games. And then the year two, the year one to year two, I mean, the rookie quarterback turning around a team like that.

40:46Bill Simmons:Well, Mendoza's like 30 years old, so maybe you got to factor that in. It's been college forever. What's your next thing on the list?

40:53Danny Heifetz:Well, speaking of the Raiders, I mean, Max Crosby, I think is going to get traded. I think DK and I are leaning toward AJ Brown does not get traded. Patriots. Patriots. It would make sense. I think it seems like there's a bidding war. Honestly, there's a chance Max Crosby's dealt by the time where this show goes up. But I think Max Crosby does get dealt before free agency opens Monday. And I think there's a lot of teams that make sense. I think the Bears should be all in. I mean, they just free up the money.

41:15Bill Simmons:How much money do the Bears have? They've had a million draft picks and they've spent crazy free agent money. I don't understand how they have this unlimited funds.

41:24Danny Heifetz:there's always money in the banana stand like teams can always create it if you need to and i think the bears because caleb williams on the rookie deal you have colson levels on a rookie deal i think trading dj more like now you have uh roman dunes who's on a rookie deal luther burden's at a rookie deal like the left tackle ozzy trapillo until they he got hurt was on a rookie deal like they have all these guys even darnell right the right tackle i think he's on a rookie deal so they need to fund a defense their center yes they did so they need a center now but i think they need to fund a defense with the thing so i mean the front seven for the bears is horrific But Max Crosby, he's, I don't know, I think he's, there's very few players I want to see more than a contender.

41:56Bill Simmons:He's a jump off the TV. It's been doing it. Feel that way about Garrett. There's like nine players in the league that you're like, holy shit, that guy's good.

42:04Michael Pina:He's also kind of a culture guy too because he plays so hard and he plays every snap. You know what I mean? He's like the type of guy. Yeah, maniac is the perfect word. I love that dude.

42:13Bill Simmons:I think I'm really hopeful with the Pats on this one. What do they have to give up? The variable thing. Well, they have the 31st pick, right? That's the centerpiece of something. I don't know if they would give up a first and a second. They have two thirds.

42:29Danny Heifetz:Oh, they're going to get two firsts for Crosby. You think he's two firsts?

42:32Bill Simmons:I mean, he is going to be 30. I don't think it's the same Parsons kind of pool.

42:36Danny Heifetz:Well, you guys were just saying that Netflix, you were in Matt Bellamy, were just saying the Netflix Paramount thing. How much was Paramount going to pay? $17 a share?

42:43Bill Simmons:Right. So you just think the bidding war bumps it up? I just thought the Parsons thing, he was four years younger, right? And defensive ends once you start hitting your 30s. That's the fear with Hendrickson. Plan B is you sign Hendrickson and hope you can get two really good years out of him, right? Keep your first one pick.

43:03Michael Pina:That would make a lot of sense. You would vote for that? You know what I think is an interesting variable here? And I don't know if the NFL will learn this lesson. Bill, you mentioned what went wrong with Ashton Gentile last year and the running back and taking a running back in the top 10 and whether the NFL will learn from that. if you look at two of the big ticket trades from last year, it was Micah Parsons for two firsts and Sauce Gardner for two firsts. And Parsons tore his ACL and Sauce got hurt with an Achilles injury and didn't play the last part of the season. I'm wondering if teams will be like, man, trading two firsts is really, really risky.

43:38Michael Pina:I wouldn't do two firsts. Super elite player, you know what I mean? I just wouldn't do it.

43:42Bill Simmons:That list of guys I would trade two firsts for is pretty small. Only quarterbacks. If he was 25, I'm in. But 29, I'm only getting a few years for him.

43:52Danny Heifetz:Yeah.

43:52Bill Simmons:So you agree with that, Heifetz?

43:55Danny Heifetz:I do. I mean, I joke on our team, on our show all the time that I feel like, I mean, look, I am not as up on the NBA as you or NBA staff, but I always feel like I look at the NBA and I see what the Oklahoma City Thunder have done. And if it was just what the Sixers had finished with the process, we'd be like greatest rebuild ever. But I'm like, this is the best rebuild I've ever seen in any sport in my lifetime for the Thunder. And I feel like no one's learned any lessons from this whatsoever. like I see you know what I mean I see teams like oh like the Rams like we got to go all in now and I'm like oh the Thunder just created the largest window possible and almost were freed by the inability to attract free agents to their city and they're like alright we're gonna have a ton of picks and I see that with the NFL too I leaned more toward what the Chiefs did where you're like I'd rather get four picks for this guy that we got five years out of that makes more sense but Crosby though you also if you're certain teams you do want to get a guy like that on the team he's really special

44:44Bill Simmons:I really think he's I don't know what, if I made a list of the top 12 best players that I think are in the league, that just watch him week to week, he would be in the top seven or eight for me. You notice him every game, and he's getting double teamed. He's just omnipresent. Quarter after quarter, you notice him.

45:02Danny Heifetz:Every sport has guys that languish on bad, great players that languish on bad teams. And you're like, I wish they were on a contender. And you're like, I'm glad Jalen Ramsey got off the Jaguars. You know, every team has guys like that. And I'm like, that's why I'm still kind of mad. Miles Garrett decided he ran a sack record in 40 million. and I'm like, couldn't you have gotten traded, gone to, I wish Miles Garrett would play meaningful football ever for merely 36 million a year, but I don't know. I'm sure there's a ton of basketball guys like that.

45:23Bill Simmons:But that's illuminating though, right? Like at some point and the way, how badly he wanted the sack record and him taking the contract when he knew that team stunk, like kind of tells you a little bit. To me, Crosby is like, I just want to win. I don't care where I go. Please put me on a winning team. I can't take this anymore. Like him getting genuinely mad that they shelved him. Oh yeah. Like a tank for a QB and he was like, fucking furious about it. He's like, I'm a football player. Football players play football. What do you have for the next one, DK?

45:52Michael Pina:So just in terms of things to watch the next week, guys that can change teams. There's a lot of guys that have pretty big name value and excitement value that are potentially going to be changing teams in the next couple of weeks. Ken Walker, I think, is one that, especially for me, I'm going to be really bummed to see if he leaves Seattle.

46:08Bill Simmons:Wow, it's like you got over the hump with this. That was another rollercoaster ride, right? I know, yeah. And then all of a sudden, it was like a great rollercoaster and you're just going to lose him?

46:16Michael Pina:It was simultaneously the best thing that could happen to the Seahawks and the worst thing that could happen to the Seahawks because he got really hot at the right time. And truthfully, they probably wouldn't have won the Super Bowl without him. I mean, he made some incredible plays in the NFC Championship game. He was the Super Bowl MVP, literally. So yeah, I mean, it's going to be a bummer to see him go if he does end up going. He's going to have to take a discount to stay in Seattle. I think that's how it looks.

46:36Bill Simmons:So it's like, what, 11, 12, 13 is kind of the market and somebody will pay a little more than that to get him, maybe like 15 a year?

46:43Michael Pina:Yes. And it's going to be, man, it's going to, I understand this from the CX point of view. Like they have a lot of free agents. They have to get big, big money deals to JSN and a couple other guys over the next couple of years. So I understand it. But it's going to be sad to see him go for like a difference of 2 million a year or something like that. I understand that's kind of just how the business works. It's the Super Bowl.

47:02Bill Simmons:I mean, I remember we won the three and four years and then they traded Deion Branch to you. I know. For a first. than it literally cost us the Super Bowl because they were trying to... It was like, oh, he's getting too expensive. And it was the biggest mistake Belichick made in that whole 2000s.

47:18Michael Pina:It's a fine line to walk, for sure. In addition to Ken Walker, who I think will make any team that he goes with a lot better. Mike Evans, I think, is a really interesting one. Even how old he is now, he's going to sign somewhere. I mean, look, the Patriots might actually make a lot of sense for him.

47:33Bill Simmons:I wish I knew he was going to play 17 straight games. I know. Not to mention playoffs. You always feel like there's going to be five in the middle there that he's just gone.

47:41Michael Pina:Yeah. Debo Samuel, David Njoku, Dallas Goddard, Khalil Mack. I'm just naming big names that people will be like, whoa, oh yeah, he's on a new team. Trey Hendrickson, we mentioned. Mika Fitzpatrick, maybe AJ Brown if he gets traded. So I'm just excited to kind of see where all these guys go. Travis Etienne's another free agent out there that is kind of exciting.

48:01Bill Simmons:Who was, I thought, pretty effective last year.

48:04Danny Heifetz:I think Travis Etienne and Ken Walker are going to get decent deals for running backs because also the draft class isn't great at running back this year. There's Jeremiah Love at Notre Dame, who is amazing. He's like a Jameer Gibbs. He's probably maybe a better prospect than even Gentile was last year. But then the second best running back in this class, DK, you're a draft expert here. We have the NFL Draft Show. And we're like, is the second best running back in this class Jeremiah Love's backup at Notre Dame? Wow. To Darren Price? It's not a good running back class. So teams are like, unless you get Jeremiah Love, there are no starting running backs in this year's class, where last year there was like eight.

48:39Danny Heifetz:Kyle Monunga for the Bears was a seventh-round pick. So the ETN and Ken Walker, all these teams also, they feel like the nerds were wrong because teams are back to running the ball, so they want to establish the run again. So I think the ETN and Ken Walker are going to be the centerpieces.

48:51Michael Pina:I mean, look at the David Montgomery trade. You know, the Texas traded three picks, I think, or two picks and change. That was nuts. Yeah. Two picks and a player to grab a running back who's 28 years old, almost 29 years old.

49:02Bill Simmons:And they have Woody Marks, who had moments. last year.

49:05Michael Pina:To me, that just tells you this class is not great.

49:08Bill Simmons:Out of all the guys you mentioned, I think Hendrickson is the most intriguing as one year's maybe two at a high level. It reminds me a little when the Pats got Corey Dillon, when he basically got one good year out of him, won the Super Bowl, but the next year he got old. And Hendrickson, I think he's 32.

49:27Michael Pina:You know who it kind of reminds me of a little bit? Different type of player, but the Seahawks traded a guy named, or signed a guy named Marcus Lawrence in free agency late last year. And everybody kind of thought he was washed. And they were, you know, they were like, this guy hasn't, you know, he's getting up there in age. He's more of a run defender. He was critical for the Seahawks all year. He was awesome. He had like a second wind. There's a famous interview with him prior to the season where he's like, man, I didn't want to leave Dallas, but I just know I'm not going to win a Super Bowl in Dallas.

49:57Michael Pina:And, you know, obviously Cowboys fans took great offense to that.

50:01Danny Heifetz:Michael Parsons took great offense to it.

50:02Michael Pina:Yeah, they were like jawing on Twitter about it.

50:05Danny Heifetz:But DeMarcus Lawrence was like, watch. And then they want to super...

50:07Michael Pina:But I can see Hendrickson having sort of a... I mean, not that he needs a renaissance. He was good like two years ago. Like not even... But, you know, it's not like he's totally fallen off. But I think he's the type of guy who everyone will kind of remember in 2025.

50:20Bill Simmons:I wonder if Khalil Mack could be that way. Because he got hurt last year too. But there were some impactful moments with him where...

50:26Danny Heifetz:Yeah. You know. I want Khalil Mack back to the Bears.

50:31Bill Simmons:Ooh. I always hope that happens. Can we talk AJ Brown? Let's do it. So your theory is they're going to dangle him, but ultimately not trade him. Sounds like where you, you two have landed.

50:44Michael Pina:I think that because, well, I don't know. I kind of, I'm back and forth on it. I think they know that they're better with him on the roster and they want to go for it this year. This is like the same conversation we're having with the, you know, the bills grabbing a DJ more. Like they know that AJ Brown makes them better this year and they have have a chance to go out and win a super bowl so i think they're going to ultimately stick with them but i don't like rule anything out heifetz i think that the eagles will probably trade aj brown but i

51:12Danny Heifetz:don't know if it happens next week they totally could but i believe that they structured aj brown's bonus where basically they're able to pay they're able to the money that they would have to pay aj brown is able to be done i think closer to august or even the beginning of the season so it might be like the weird timing of the George Pickens trade last year, which was after the draft. And because the 2027 draft might be deeper than 2026, the Eagles, if they're going to lose A.J. Brown, they might be looking at it as if we are offered it. They said they want a Quinton Williams deal first and a second.

51:40Danny Heifetz:No way. If the Eagles are trying to hold out, I think for a first rounder. And if they don't get offered one, I think they'd rather wait and see if they could get someone from one in 2027 than flip A.J. Brown for less than they want. So we'll see what people offer.

51:55Bill Simmons:Well, now it's time for me to give you my take.

52:00Danny Heifetz:the Mike Vrabel reunion in New England

52:02Bill Simmons:may have been on a few threads about this over the last couple weeks I don't like it and now if the Pats traded 31 for him and probably like a third next year or something that would probably be the price right something like that and it'll be like he was a Pats fan growing up he played for Mike Vrabel Mike Vrabel loved him when they traded AJ Brown and drafted Burks. That was the beginning of the end for Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. He didn't want that trade to happen. Now they're reunited. He knows how good he is. He wasn't happy in Philly. He's going to love Drake May. I'll talk myself into it in five minutes.

52:41Bill Simmons:I just don't think it's what they should do. I would much rather slightly overpay Pierce from the Colts and keep my first round pick. I think Pierce is like, I know the advanced stats back me up on this. I think he's really good. And I think he's been saddled for the most part with shit quarterbacks. And we only saw a little bit when Indiana Jones got hot there, as Jason Garrett called him, for eight weeks. But he was in a quarterback wasteland. And watching the Colts, that dude got open every game. And I just feel like there's a lot more there. And if he was the focal point, I'd much rather pay him.

53:17Bill Simmons:What's he going to get? Like over 20, right? He's going to get too much, probably.

53:21Michael Pina:But I think, you know.

53:22Bill Simmons:But would you pay him 100 for four years? I would rather do that and keep my first-round pick, and if it's a little over the top, so be it. If you're talking 30 range, now I'm a little more nervous. But 25 a year for Pierce, I'm doing that in five seconds.

53:38Michael Pina:Doesn't it feel like he would fit just perfectly with Drake May, too?

53:41Bill Simmons:Exactly what we need.

53:43Michael Pina:Yeah, May is such an elite deep ball passer. Alec Pierce has been one of the best deep ball receivers in the NFL. Pair him with Booty, who's also very good deep down the field.

53:51Bill Simmons:But here's the thing with the Pierce deep ball thing. He's also good at pretending he's going for the deep ball and cutting off. Like he basically has, I don't know. I really liked him last year. That would be my preference.

54:02Danny Heifetz:Don't you usually draft your white receivers for the Patriots in the seventh round? We're going to try a new strategy. It's a new strategy.

54:09Michael Pina:Efton Chisholm is coming along. Don't forget.

54:12Bill Simmons:Is he one of the five best deep ball guys? One of the best three? Like where is he in the deep ball receiver rankings? He's got to be up there. Who has bigger, longer plays than him the last couple of years?

54:22Danny Heifetz:I mean, in terms of just like a guy, I mean, obviously I'm not going to compare him to like Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase, but I think Alec Pierce, I think he was started out as, yeah, but I think that Alec Pierce, I do think that in the beginning it was like, oh, I mean, frankly, he's huge. He's like 6 '3", feels bigger than that, plays bigger than that. He runs like a 4 '3", 8", or whatever. And he's like, it started, I was like, oh, he's a great deep guy. He's like got the most yards per catch in the league. I actually think he ran it out to a three-level receiver. I think he can win quick in the intermediate.

54:47Danny Heifetz:I totally agree. I think he can move all over. So I agree. I think that if you have the cap space, it's always dangerous.

54:53Bill Simmons:Which the Patriots have and a couple other teams have.

54:55Danny Heifetz:Yeah. So all the deals are two years anyway. Every single, I mean, Stephon Diggs signed a three-year deal and then he got cut today to save money. So I think that every free agent contract is only going to be two years anyway. So I agree because A.J. Brown, I'm a little concerned. I also am concerned that on one hand, I think A.J. Brown's right because every criticism he's had of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense seems obviously true and maybe he'd be great somewhere else and he's undervalued. I also fear the fact that AJ Brown said he won a Super Bowl and went to his locker and said he felt nothing because he wasn't really a huge part of the game plan.

55:25Bill Simmons:Because it wasn't with the Patriots. He was heartbroken. He was winning with his favorite team. I would rather, I really value the pick because I think with these trades sometimes you're getting a guy that you already have to pay, but you also lose this other asset, right? So you're basically turning a first-round pick that's, especially late in the round, is one of the best assets you can have when you're building a franchise. You're losing that. You're basically turning it into a$29 million,$30 million,$35 million a year guy. Whereas I could pay Pierce$27, but then I also have this awesome 31st pick asset.

56:02Bill Simmons:And the combined adds up to A.J. Brown. Why wouldn't I do that?

56:06Danny Heifetz:also it the Eagles Howie Roseman right now if it's just poker you know what's the line from rounders it's like if it's been 30 minutes at the table you don't know you're the sucker yeah you're the sucker it's like if Howie Roseman's been trying to deal AJ Brown for somewhere between two months and two years and then suddenly you're on the phone with him trying to get a first it's like don't make it like just hang up the phone like just don't make a deal with like you know much more information Howie Roseman has about the situation than you like I don't think any team is going to be at an advantage doing that deal.

56:36Danny Heifetz:So I agree. I probably wouldn't pay the price, which is why I kind of think no one's going to give him a first in the next week or so.

56:42Bill Simmons:When we got Moss, we gave up a fourth for him. Yeah. Right. And it was like crazy. Didn't want to give a first, but his reputation was in tatters. Right. And they were just kind of stole them and figured they can rejuvenate him with Brady. But OK, before we go, Heifetz, give me your single craziest prediction you can possibly make that actually has a chance to happen

57:03Danny Heifetz:for the NFL or for the next week? NFL. For the next three weeks. The single craziest offseason thing that might actually happen. Yeah. Okay. It has to have a chance of happening. So it's not like Malik Willis signs and then it's good. You're talking about a move that could be made? Okay. Yeah. I would say the craziest thing is like the Eagles bring in competition for Jalen Hurts. Like the Eagles bring in What a great answer. I was worried this wouldn't be a good game because they didn't prep you. The Eagles bringing in Anthony Richardson or the Eagles bringing in Malik Willis. The Eagles are like, hey, like, you know what?

57:40Danny Heifetz:We had Wentz and Jalen Hurts came in. And you know what, Jalen? You can deal with it because you dealt with two at Alabama. And you know what, Jalen? Like all those things you always say all the time. Competition, you know, iron sharp. Like the Eagles bringing in Kyler Murray? Yeah, the Eagles bringing in Kyler. The Eagles are like we're quarterback factory, which they don't want to say out loud anymore, but it's still true. Oh, that would be sweet. They can't get rid of Jalen Hurts in his contract yet. But we all know where this is going. And I think the Eagles should add a quarterback of some kind.

58:02Danny Heifetz:And I would be fascinated to see if the Eagles actually added a quarterback. Really, why shouldn't they?

58:07Bill Simmons:Other than it would look bad. Well, the Tanner McKee bandwagon, they're still picking the survivors out of the crash. That was really tough, that game. His terrible performance saved us from an entire offseason of wondering whether he should be the quarterback. DK, do you have a crazy prediction that might actually happen?

58:27Michael Pina:There's a couple that came to my mind immediately. because of the way that coaches and GMs have talked about these players, number one, the Broncos trade Bo Nix because of all this Sean Payton-Nix sort of drama that's happened, even though it's probably not really that much drama. And it didn't feel like nothing. Yeah, that's kind of my point. And even at the combine, we went to the Payton presser, and he was kind of getting in fights with the beat reporters there about the whole thing. He put one of the beat reporter in timeout during the presser, and it was like, this is kind of weird. man and then Bo Nix is coming out and talking about like how Sean Payton shouldn't be talking about his medical history.

59:05Bill Simmons:Let's call it what it is. Sean Payton has acted really fucking weird. Yeah, this whole season and then the offseason. I think it's not just one thing. You could point to like seven different things that just are weird. Like you're supposed to be the most stable person in your organization and he's not.

59:22Danny Heifetz:The Raylan Givens quote from Justified was like, you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole and you run into assholes all day. you know maybe you're the asshole it's like russell wilson's calling out sean payton all the shanahan tree coaches hate sean payton for what he said about nate hackett and being a coach before which you don't say out loud it's like let other people say that for you and like the amount of people that sean payton has started his own starting quarterback has serious beef and i do really do think that that raiders broncos thursday night football abomination that the broncos won like nine to six or six nothing whatever it was there was real beef between sean payton and bonix after that game and i think it was paper papered over by a 12-game winning streak.

59:56Danny Heifetz:Winning solves everything. So no one looked at it. But then they lose one game and then suddenly it's like, oh, the quarterback and coach are mad at each other again. So I agree. I think there's a very strange dynamic there.

1:00:07Michael Pina:I'm obviously not being like 100 % serious, but since we're making wild predictions, I think there's an element of Sean Payton just wants to prove that he can do it with any quarterback. You know what I mean? Like that was like the whole AFC championship game.

1:00:21Bill Simmons:Dude, that was the whole game was him trying to be the hero, which seems to be what he wants. the other one that came to mind can I do one more Sean Payton thing quick because I'm going to claim this corner in the offseason Sean Payton just might be a dick and he did Fox for what a year or two years so like Schrager shout out to Schrager but like all those guys like Sean Payton great hang great dinner guest got suspended for the entire season for Bounty Gate left the Saints in fucking shambles all he did was like pay their salary cap credit card for years and years to the point that The dinner check was coming.

1:00:57Bill Simmons:The waiter was coming over and he's like, I'll see you guys later. And was just gone. And that was it. And I think he's been, he seemed like a huge prick the last year or so. So he's a, I don't know.

1:01:07Danny Heifetz:It's a true Bill Parcells guy. And that's why I've said the whole time that I think Mike Vrabel is like the one, the only Belichick disciple, but Vrabel actually is a lot common with Bill Parcells because I think, well, Bill Parcells was the confrontation guy and Belichick never was. Sean Payton is like the alpha confrontation guy. like the same way that Bill Parcells could handle Lawrence Taylor. Like Sean Payton is that kind of coach. Like I'm trying to dominate every room. But the media is crumb. It's crazy.

1:01:32Bill Simmons:I'm glad you brought this up because Belichick always got the reputation as being this huge asshole. You mean like Sean Payton? Is Sean Payton better than Bill Belichick? I don't know. Anyway, what was your other thing, Danny?

1:01:45Michael Pina:I was just going to say, anytime you have a GM or coach strongly come out against a news story, it kind of piques my interest. And the CJ Stroud, Nick Casario, Nick Casario was asked about whether they're going to, I don't know what the question exactly was, but he was like, all this CJ Stroud stuff is moronic. and went totally in on even the notion that CJ Stroud would not be part of their future plans or whatever. Obviously, they're going to have to make a decision on him sooner or later here. I'm just curious to see. I guess my prediction would be that maybe there's a chance he does get moved because of how strongly they came out.

1:02:25Michael Pina:This is how it happens every year. But the combine, they're like, there's no way we're moving him. We're not even thinking about that. And then a week later, it's like he's traded.

1:02:32Danny Heifetz:In the bucket of the craziest things that might happen, you're saying. like because the Seahawks with Russell Wilson Pete Carroll just basically was like how dare you yeah you know what

1:02:40Bill Simmons:a good way to follow the tea leaves on that story you always follow the defensive guys that was where you started to know with Russell Wilson when the defensive guys started taking shots at him in the mid 2010s and there was like real resentment I haven't seen that yet with the Texans though

1:02:55Michael Pina:no no and I don't I don't I still am sort of in the believer camp for CJ Stroud but I think with the way that things have gone in the last couple years it's obviously just something that's worth monitoring. So you're saying you're ready for the

1:03:07Bill Simmons:Will Anderson GQ interview where he's like, we felt like we had the best team in the league but only on one side of the ball. And it's just like, shots fired, boom.

1:03:18Michael Pina:If we could just score one touchdown. If our quarterback

1:03:21Bill Simmons:had been able to do anything, just one of those, then there's blood in the water all of a sudden.

1:03:26Danny Heifetz:Or even just not do anything. If CJ Stroud had just gone down every time, I think that they might have had a chance.

1:03:32Michael Pina:Yeah, if he throws it in the dirt three times in a row and punts like they're better off.

1:03:35Bill Simmons:Well, before we go and we're about to go and I kept you guys 20 minutes longer than I thought. I want to give you my list of things that I don't care about. Oh, Aaron Rodgers. I don't care if you're playing or not next year. There's one George Pickens, whether your franchise tag, they're traded or whatever. I just don't care. Let me know in late August what happens because what's probably going to happen is your franchise tag, you're going to hold out and then Jerry Jones will get to be on first take for four straight months with the George Pickens thing. I just don't care. He's going to end up on the team and that's it.

1:04:08Bill Simmons:And then, uh, last but not least the, the Brady Vegas, I'm sure there's going to be more stuff about this. I'm really trying hard to like Tom Brady, the guy that brought me six super bowls. All of these stories are making me like him less. So I'm going to file that into my own care kit. Those are my three things. What I do care about is I still want to know what happened to Drake may and whether he was injured or not. And I still want to know what happened to my left tackle and whether I can count on him next year.

1:04:35Danny Heifetz:Look, the Seahawks defense was better. I'm so... Alright. Will Campbell was a rookie 22-year-old tackle when on injured reserve and everyone saw him at his arm. He was 22. He's a rookie. He came back from a torn MCL. Wasn't on the injury report. His knee was not healed. Drake May, it's like that was the best. The Seahawks had the best defense in years. It's like Mike McDonald, what he does. We didn't run

1:04:52Bill Simmons:plays that we ran with him all year because I don't think he could run the plays. Something was wrong with him. Probably. I mean, if they say

1:05:00Danny Heifetz:Will Campbell's not on the injury report, imagine what was going on with Drake May's shoulder.

1:05:04Bill Simmons:And once you lie about it, you can't then tell people after. You're just kind of stuck with the lie.

1:05:10Michael Pina:Classified. Right? The Seahawks also blitzed the crap out of the Patriots in that game. It was embarrassing. It seemed like they knew

1:05:17Bill Simmons:what the plays were.

1:05:18Michael Pina:There was that report that kind of came out after the game that the Seahawks picked up on a tell from the offensive line that they were going to be passing or running. So, yeah.

1:05:27Bill Simmons:Listen, I hold no grudges against Danny Kelly, Mina Kimes, Sam Darnold, the city of Seattle. I still want to do a rewatchables there. Oh, there it is. Is that the hat?

1:05:38Michael Pina:Oh, wow. Yeah, I just had to bring it out last minute.

1:05:41Bill Simmons:How many did you get?

1:05:42Michael Pina:I got four different hats and, you know, probably still going to be in the market for a few more. So, yeah.

1:05:50Bill Simmons:The best thing about winning the Super Bowl is the stupid merch purchases. Super Bowl champ.

1:05:55Michael Pina:That's crisps. Yeah, that's a nice color. This is what they were wearing on the parade and everything. and post-game stuff.

1:06:03Bill Simmons:DK, last question. What does Shahid get? Because it sounds like he's out of Seattle.

1:06:07Michael Pina:That's a great question.

1:06:08Bill Simmons:Is he like a Cooper Cupps money last year type of thing? Is it like a 39 for three?

1:06:14Michael Pina:Yeah, like maybe a little bit more. I think he's a Raider, Rashid Sheed. That's a good Patriot backup too.

1:06:21Bill Simmons:I don't know. I like Shahid. You were just figuring out how to use him as the season went along. I'm surprised they didn't try to keep him.

1:06:28Michael Pina:Truthfully, it's the same story as Kenneth Walker. He won them a couple games late in the season. Shahid did. I mean, if you look at what he was doing on special teams, the return game, he was incredible. Sometimes they would have him... Anytime they needed an explosive play, I feel like Shahid would come up.

1:06:46Danny Heifetz:They'd dial him up, yeah. The Rams-Seahawks Thursday in a football game, which was the best game of the year, the Charbonnet two-point conversion flips everything. The Seahawks get home field because of that win. But Rashid Shahid's punt return set up that whole game.

1:06:57Bill Simmons:Well, that's the other thing. You lose Walker and you don't have Charbonnet, so now you're in the running back market, which you just said the draft's not good.

1:07:04Michael Pina:I don't know what they're going to do. Tyler Algier, maybe? I think you end up with Kenneth Walker.

1:07:09Bill Simmons:I hope so. I think that's where we plan. All right, the Danny's. Great to see you. Say hi to Craig for him, even though I'm going to probably see him in a couple days. A pleasure, as always. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Bill. This episode is brought to you by Domino's. Best deal ever. They wanted me to be a pizza GM. They wanted me to assemble my perfect pizza lineup. I could go up to seven toppings or I could do a five topping rotation. They wanted me to tie it in a basketball. Obviously, this is right at my wheelhouse. Number one topping, extra cheese well done. That's Jokic. It's just, you can throw it on any team, any situation.

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1:09:45Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by Hotels.com. Save Your Way is a new feature on Hotels.com and it's as simple as it sounds. When you book a trip as a Hotels.com member, you decide how to use your savings. Take the instant savings now or bank the savings as rewards for later. It's your call, only at Hotels.com. Save Your Way is available to loyalty members in the US and UK and hotels with member prices. Other terms apply, see site for details. All right, taping this mid-Thursday afternoon. It seems like we are pretty certain Jason Tatum is coming back for the Friday Dallas game. Michael Pina is here.

1:10:21Bill Simmons:Joe House is here. Michael Pina, what are the minutes like for you? What do you think? What do you think? What are you expecting for minute limit for Tatum before we get into the PowerPole?

1:10:31Joe House:Yeah, we were just talking about this right before we went on. I would anticipate short stints for him. I would anticipate him obviously starting and then subbing out after maybe the first TV timeout. So you think he's going to start?

1:10:46Bill Simmons:Interesting.

1:10:47Joe House:You don't think he'll start?

1:10:49Bill Simmons:I didn't think about that. I thought they might be a little more careful, but maybe you're right. Maybe he starts, but then you get in a hole, who's the last guy? Is it him or Jalen Brown? And Jalen Brown's like, I was the last guy. No, I don't know. Maybe you bring him off the bench. It's a little easier.

1:11:04Joe House:Bill, you made a really good point. I don't know when it was recently about how Baylor Shireman was kind of like slotting in the minutes and the role that you think Tate might fill. Yeah, exactly. And Shireman's been great. I don't even want, I don't think he should be removed from the rotation at all. He's been terrific. But I think that that will eventually be kind of the ramp up goal for him, just kind of those minutes. And we'll see. I mean, this is kind of uncharted waters in a lot of ways.

1:11:32Bill Simmons:I thought in my head, I thought they'd go like five minutes end of the first quarter, wait five minutes end of the second quarter and just play him in these shorter stints. The person who doesn't care about this at all other than the gambling standpoint is Joe House, who doesn't even want to have Celtics combos at all. This is fascinating fucking content. Talk about us from the gambling standpoint. Did this change your perspective of the Eastern Conference that Tatum is actually going to probably be back here?

1:11:59Danny Kelly:As it became clear that he is going to play basketball this season, I immediately jumped into the FanDuel Sportsbook and bought the Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. I bought Joe Mazzulla to win Coach of the Year, and I bought the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title. Just to put your stink on us? You have to have, well, I mean, yes, for sure. But also, this team with Tatum in any kind of capacity, 80 % Tatum, 85 % Tatum, They can win the East. And if they win the East, then that means that they're in the final, in the final. And then, you know, let's see, but. Well,

1:12:42Bill Simmons:they need some luck with Charlotte would have to have an injury because Charlotte, I mean, they might go 12 and O in the Eastern conference playoffs at this point. Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh, they're just rolling through the league. We're going to do a power poll in a second. And I had the, I sent you guys the records and the net ratings for the last 30 games, which is basically July 1st. And Charlotte's in the 11s, Pina, for plus rating. This is like 2017 Warriors territory. Do you understand it at all?

1:13:15Joe House:I do. I watch a ton of Charlotte Hornets basketball, obviously. But it's so funny that you compare them to the Warriors because I have this crazy stat that I saw last night, but they've won six straight games by at least 15 points, which hasn't happened since the 2018 Warriors. And that's tied for the second longest streak of that kind in NBA history. The Detroit Pistons in 2004 are the only team that topped them eight in a row. So they're just demolishing people at a rate that's ridiculous. I mean, the starting lineup is, everyone kind of knows this already, but it's historically great. And I think aesthetically, when you watch them play, You know, you talked about this in your deep dive a few days ago, but the way that they have so much randomness in their offense with the small, small screens, the slip screens, go screens, etc.

1:14:07Joe House:It's really reminiscent of how the Indiana Pacers played last year to me and would give me hope if I was a Charlotte Hornets fan that this could be like a truly magical season for this team.

1:14:19Bill Simmons:I think they're terrifying. They absolutely destroyed the Celtics last night. And out of all the makings, Fandle wanted me to do a bet yesterday, and I didn't want to pick a winner for the game because I was really worried about the game. The Celtics had played a bunch of games the last two weeks. And Charlotte basically looked like a better, faster version of the Celtics because they have a similar style in some ways, right? Charles Lee was with Missoula. They push it more than the Celtics did. LaMelo week by week, House, just is starting to seem more sophisticated. He's not seeming like he's trying to play in an all-star game anymore.

1:14:55Bill Simmons:He's actually, in real time, looking like a guy who's running a team again. And then the Miller-Kahn combo, they're terrifying. I mean, as a 7 or an 8 seed, this is terrifying now, House.

1:15:09Danny Kelly:So, I'm not terrified. and you just hit on to me what is the most important ingredient which is the development of LaMelo Ball. Is he going to end up when it comes to be playoff time and they are up against Detroit or Boston or the New York Knicks are they going to present as a serious basketball team with LaMelo Ball at the tip of the spear? That's the big sort of open question.

1:15:37Bill Simmons:And you're dubious at this it sounds like.

1:15:39Danny Kelly:Well, you know For a couple reasons. In the first place, teams like this that pull it all together in the kind of the second half of the season and go on a run, a regular season run like this, they tend to lose in the first or second round.

1:16:00Bill Simmons:But think about that, though. Second round would be an amazing achievement for them. That's what happened with the Curry Clay Warriors that first year when they upset Denver. That's my point. To make the second round as a 7 or an 8 seed, it would be significant.

1:16:15Danny Kelly:I don't think there's anybody on Charlotte that is as good as Steph Curry. That's all.

1:16:20Bill Simmons:Okay. What do you think, Peter?

1:16:21Joe House:Are we sure that they're not going to get the 6 seed?

1:16:25Bill Simmons:It's in play. Great point. They would have to basically chase down Philadelphia and there are a couple losses behind them. Yeah. And they'd have to leapfrog Miami and Orlando. There's some interesting future bets with them too. like how do you think it's realistic in any way shape or form that they could upset the Knicks Cleveland Boston whoever is in that one two spot the only one that would surprise me is Detroit but I do feel like they could I don't know I'm just not ruling it out I guess is my point and there were bets on about how far teams go in the playoffs I'm looking it up the to advance to the this is one of the Raheem favorites bets.

1:17:11Bill Simmons:So for them to advance to the Eastern Finals. Finals? I'm just saying. I'm just giving you the odds. Well, let me guess. It can't be less than 30-1. It's 10-1.

1:17:25Danny Kelly:Get out of here. It's 10-1 on Fando.

1:17:28Bill Simmons:They're very good. For them to advance to the second round is plus 360. Like these are relatively low odds. I'm not.

1:17:36Danny Kelly:That's not. You don't get anything. The reward for that.

1:17:39Bill Simmons:House, you can laugh. You're missing like that. Pete has been watching, it sounds like. You've been watching from the get-go. It's very good. Yeah, they - No, House, you're not allowed. You're off the bandwagon. Screw you.

1:17:50Joe House:I mean, I'll just say at the top, both my kids wore Moussa Diabate jerseys to school today and the compliments that drop off were through the roof. Oh my God.

1:17:58Bill Simmons:You really is.

1:17:59Joe House:This man is, I mean, incredible. Like net rating when he's on the court since January 1st is like plus 23 or something like that.

1:18:07Bill Simmons:You try to fight Jalen Duren? Like he's really bringing it all to the table.

1:18:11Joe House:He's very aggressive. But this team rebounds. Like they lead the league in defensive rebound rate. They're first or second in offensive rebound rate. They do things that win in the postseason. They defend. Like when you talk about Lomelo, Lomelo's playing his ass off on defense for the first time in his life. He's selfless with the ball. He's moving it. so I'm really high on Charlotte and I you know we'll see how kind of the matchups tinker out but an upset in the first round probably wouldn't even be an upset based on how well this team is playing

1:18:44Bill Simmons:and it would be interesting to see if it gets to the point depending on where they land whether teams are like I would rather play these other guys and we start doing like the top seed jockeying at the end house to put it in perspective so the power poll we're about to do it's the last 30 games only that I'm going to give the records and net ratings and they are plus 11.9, which is first by three points for net rating. They're 21 and nine in their last 30 games and they're 12 and three in their last 15. And to me, all this stuff really matters because the sample sizes of just throw away the first two months and really look at this stuff.

1:19:22Bill Simmons:Anyway, quickly going through the power pole because there's some teams we just don't have to talk about. Going from 30 to one. there's a whole group here. Tankapalooza, 2026. Brooklyn is 30. And I was surprised. I thought Sacramento was going to be 30, but Brooklyn's three and 17, their last 20 with a minus 16.1 net rating. Minus 16 is aggressive. They're not trying to win. Neither is Sacramento at 29 or Washington at 28. Utah at 27.

1:19:52Danny Kelly:I just want to interrupt you. Yeah. Washington is trying to win. We're taping this on Thursday. Tonight, with the franchise debut of this fellow right here, that's the number of Trey Young who's going to make his debut tonight. They host the Utah Jazz. What a time to come out. Ooh, a tank fest. Well, and Utah, to its credit, played very admirably last night against the Philadelphia 76ers. This is a back-to-back for them. They've already, I haven't checked the injury report in the last 10 minutes, but Keontae George was doubtful. I mean, you know, marketing. Like you were going to see.

1:20:30Bill Simmons:Impingement. We'll get to see the word impingement in somebody's knee or wrist.

1:20:34Danny Kelly:This is a Washington smash spot. If anybody, they won't help anybody for listening to this tomorrow, but I'm telling you. Welcome, Trey Young.

1:20:42Bill Simmons:Pena, do you respect the tanking of a team that's 3-12 in their last 15, but their net rating is only minus 4.4? It really means they're trying to take care of the first three quarters and then just throw it in the last quarter away, right?

1:20:54Joe House:I will say the Washington Wizards are playing guys who don't have headshots for their player page on NBA.com. Like that's how anonymous some of these lineups are. Like Juju Reese, I had to Google him and I couldn't see his photo. And I had to search for it. Like that's kind of what we're dealing with here with the Washington Wizards. So, yeah, that's it. We'll see how Trae Young plays in. What a battle. All right.

1:21:14Bill Simmons:Utah 27. Chicago's 26. They are 2-13 in the last 15. There's been some amazing stuff with the tanking teams that unless they're playing another tanking team, they're just losing every game. And if you're doing like parlays on different teams and you have like a case like last night, like the Clippers against Indiana, just throw the Clippers money line in there because these tanking teams don't want to win. Dallas at number 25 and Indiana at number 24. Dallas is 2-13 last 15. Indiana is 4-11 last 15. But two teams that don't seem like they want to win, but also are frisky as well. I almost feel like I feel bad putting them in this tier, but this is what they're showing us with win-loss.

1:22:00Bill Simmons:But when you watch them, I don't know. I feel like Siakam still gives a shit, right? When you watch some of these guys, flags come back for Dallas. And then Memphis is the last one. They're number 23. They're 2-13 in their last 15. So from a Tankapalooza standpoint, Sacramento is still up a game, and it's just going to be a slugfest. And this draft is really... Do you get into draft, Pina? Do you care? Or do you just get into it after the season?

1:22:28Joe House:After the season. I can't watch college basketball. Yeah.

1:22:32Bill Simmons:Too much. House, have you cared at all yet or no?

1:22:36Danny Kelly:I'm watching a ton of college basketball because I want to see who the first six or seven guys might be. It was the least surprising thing of 2026, that when you had your conversation, was it last week with J Kyle, man? Yeah. And Tate. And Tate about guys that you like. And when you, when they, you said there's one guy that's caught my eye. I knew it. I just knew it was that Acuff kid because he's that, he's that guy. He's, that's the kind of kid that catches your attention and my attention. And I think he's going to be an impact player in the NBA.

1:23:11Bill Simmons:House and I have known each other since 1988. and the Venn diagram of guys that we like without knowing the other guy likes them. We've been batting like 97 % on this. Knipple was like that last year for us. Yeah. That was another one. Yeah, Acuff. So there's these guards and this is why the Clippers pick is so interesting where they get between five through nine from Indiana, right? If the ping pong balls fall, they would get five, six, seven, eight, or nine. All of those picks are guys who can score. and really interesting guards. There's some guards with size. There's some smaller size. But all of these guys are like potentially like elite offensive players.

1:23:53Bill Simmons:So we'll see. All right, next category. This gets dark fast here in the power pole. No man's land where we have New Orleans who's 11 and 19 in their last 30. And I think of the 19 losses have come down to the last minute and like 17 of them. And now they have Murray back too. And they really look like a competent NBA team. so I feel like they're going to probably play themselves out of the bottom eight and that pick that Atlanta gets unless some sort of miracle happens will be somewhere between 9, 10, 11 and that Derrick Queen train will then not be as bad, right Michael? Still bad but not maybe they escaped how bad it was maybe

1:24:34Joe House:maybe first of all just like watching them, DeJounte Murray coming back and watching him run pick and roll with Zion Williamson and kind of seeing what Zion has missed as someone who can screen roll and create havoc has been really nice to see for the New Orleans Pelicans. And the fact that they finally split up the Derrick Queen Zion Williamson tandem in the starting five and they sent Derrick Queen to the bench was very necessary if they're trying to win basketball games because that was one of the worst front court tandems in the league. But I mean, this is a there's players on this team, but they're just not very good is how I would sum it up.

1:25:11Bill Simmons:It's a collection of, it's like a fantasy basketball team and not an actual team. And I saw the same thing with Zion and Queen. It's just two guys that just should not play basketball together. I don't know why they didn't realize this last year, but my guess would be Zion's not on the Pelicans next year. Could he be on Charlotte? Maybe he'll try to jump on that. I noticed Lomelo had this quote about him the other day about how when they were throwing alley-oops to him when they played together one time, how amazing it was. It was like, whoa, just throwing that out there. number 21 Milwaukee and probably the next time we do a power poll they will be probably in the mid 20s Giannis comes back and the team falls apart anyway one of the weirder seasons the chemistry looks bizarre they were 8-3 out of 11 games in one stretch and then Giannis comes back and they look where I don't want to figure them out I do have a seat warm for Doc though for the playoffs I can't wait for him.

1:26:10Bill Simmons:Milwaukee's out of the playoffs now. This is a wrap. They're not going to make up the draft. They're five back. It's over. It's done. And then I have Golden State at 20. Golden State is the 8th seed right now. We're taping this before the games tonight. They're 31-30. Clippers are 30-31. Portland's 30-33. House, would you punt on this season if you're a Golden State? Just tell Steph Curry actually don't come back?

1:26:37Danny Kelly:Haven't they already? I mean, Aren't we watching the punt night to night in the way that they play, the matchups that they have, what they did with Kaminga? Felt like a punt to me.

1:26:51Bill Simmons:Trading for a guy who seems to have some mystery illness that's never going to go away and then being surprised that he can't play?

1:26:58Danny Kelly:Seemed intentional. I don't feel like it was a surprise.

1:27:01Bill Simmons:Well, do you blame him? Butler tears his ACL. Do you blame him, Michael? No, no.

1:27:06Danny Kelly:No, they made a gamble and they lost. They tried with Butler and he got hurt and that happened. So the right thing for them to do is to find themselves a way into the lottery. And that means losing in the play-in because they're not going to drop below the 10 seed. It's not possible.

1:27:25Bill Simmons:And so that 12-13 range and then pray for a miracle.

1:27:30Danny Kelly:What rationale could there possibly be for Steph Curry to play in that play-in game? That's the question that I pose.

1:27:36Bill Simmons:When they start doing the at least with the number, when it's like, he'll be back in 10 days, right? That's definitive. When they start doing the, it's going to be at least another 10 days, I just assume the guy's not coming back. Like reading through the NBA, tea leaves of how they talk about injuries. I don't know. What do you think, Michael?

1:27:58Joe House:I just, I mean, this team obviously wasn't built to withstand the loss of Jimmy Butler and then Stephen Curry. I mean, almost every team that has a worse offense than Steph went out 10 or 11 games ago is in that tank tier that we just were talking about. So Steve Kerr is kind of grasping at straws, trying to figure out lineup combinations, but it's just like a whack-a-mole season for Golden State. I mean, it's just, there's no answers. So I don't see a point, to be honest with you.

1:28:27Bill Simmons:Well, let me give you this stat. Golden State, their last 30 games, They're 15 and 15 with a net rating of plus 0.0. They're literally dead even in every respect. All right. Next category is the water treaders. Number 19, Portland. Number 18, Orlando. Number 17, Philly. And number 16, Atlanta, who is quietly 17 and 13 in their last 30. House, do any of these teams intrigue you in any way?

1:28:53Danny Kelly:No, sir. Okay. The one I'm interested in the most is Portland because I do like that young thing that they have going there. And I'm a deep Denny Abdiah guy. Love Denny. Loved his time here in Washington. We don't know if he's coming back.

1:29:10Bill Simmons:He's had this weird back injury. I know.

1:29:12Danny Kelly:Well, that will be the thing that sinks them. And maybe it makes sense for him to not come back, right? Maybe they should get one more asset in this upcoming draft.

1:29:23Bill Simmons:I watched them play Charlotte on Saturday, and I thought they played really well. And I thought they handled Charlotte's offense the best I'd seen anyone handle Charlotte's offense. They just kept throwing wings and defense, and they could protect the rim. Plus, Holiday's playing really well all of a sudden. What do you think, Michael? Are you intrigued by them at all?

1:29:42Joe House:That game against the Hornets, they were very physical. Yeah, I thought they were good. Yeah, to your point, they just kind of ran out of gas, and they can't shoot. And so, I mean, their offense is terrible without Denny, without Shaden Sharp, who's also out. And it just feels like a cursed season in a lot of respects for the Portland Trailblazers.

1:30:02Bill Simmons:Because their coach left after one game and it's just in house arrest.

1:30:06Joe House:That is a factor, yes. But I mean, as soon as Scoot comes back, like the guy who's the best player on the team goes down. So I just, I don't know. It's tough.

1:30:15Bill Simmons:Scoot's had a pretty rough rollercoaster ride here. I have a question Verno texted us from the Memphis game was not pumped about what Scoot looked like in person I've seen him in other games I don't know what to make of it anymore

1:30:30Danny Kelly:Verno gave us a sell order he put in sell and I was like dude

1:30:36Bill Simmons:this has already been a huge loss thank god I have all my Charlotte Hornets stock

1:30:40Danny Kelly:here's my question when you vote for awards like for coach of the year Do you write or do you put how many names do you write down? I think it's isn't it three for coach of the year?

1:30:51Bill Simmons:I think it's three.

1:30:52Danny Kelly:Damn. If it was five, I think Tiago splitter. Yeah. Yeah. What he's done with this team under these circumstances deserves a recognition of some sort.

1:31:04Bill Simmons:What would be your three right now, Michael?

1:31:07Joe House:Great question. Missoula for sure. Probably Jordan Ott has got to be in there. I think Ott has to be there. I think, honestly, Charles Lee needs to be in this conversation. I think that's the three.

1:31:20Bill Simmons:And I actually would have to turn around. I'd probably have Charles Lee one, Missoula two, three right now.

1:31:26Danny Kelly:Bickerstaff, what are you talking about? They didn't walk in with a 60-win team this year, this Detroit situation. It's amazing. Bickerstaff.

1:31:37Joe House:I voted Bickerstaff last year. Love Bickerstaff. I thought the Pistons would be pretty good. Didn't think they'd be this good. but it's not that stunning to me. I would say the Western Conference version of that is Mitch Johnson with the San Antonio Spurs and you could kind of have those two cross each other out if that was kind of the logic there.

1:31:57Bill Simmons:The thing to me with Detroit, the reason they're so much better than they were last year is it just comes down to Durin night to night what an absolute fucking beast he is. Old Durin. We were talking the other night, I was talking to a friend of mine about them. he is like the guys post-college house the the 90s guys where we had a bunch of these guys and it always seemed like if they ever got into a fight like the world would end like the davis brothers and oakley like kevin willis these big ass macho dudes and he's like a throwback to that era he just comes in he sets the tone like he really i think intimidates some of these teams He's just really, really physically daunting night after night.

1:32:39Bill Simmons:Plays really hard. And between him and Cade, it's just a tough-ass team. Then you throw in the other dudes. I'm surprised they're this good without Stewart. I thought they would fall back. Yeah, so Bickerstaff, you're right, House. So it's probably those four. And Mitch Johnson, I think, has to be in there, too. You're not intrigued at all by Atlanta, neither of you?

1:33:01Danny Kelly:I'm so out on them. They've cost me so much money. I know.

1:33:04Bill Simmons:That's how I feel.

1:33:05Danny Kelly:Every year we say, oh, this is, what was the over-under? 46 and a half? 47? Some number that was near 50? I don't think. It's a 500 team again. We were really smart enough to bet it. I mean, yes, the injuries and everything. And we over, what, over-enthused about the idea of Porzingis actually coming back from his illness and being able to contribute. So the Porzingis and NAW combo adds a layer.

1:33:32Bill Simmons:It's crazy that they nailed the NAW thing and still somehow stayed in the same spot. I don't know. They've been worse since they traded Trey. There's no part of you that's like, when Philly gets Paul George back and Embiid's healthy, they're going to be scary because there's no part of me.

1:33:52Danny Kelly:I want Pina to answer this because I'll use bad words.

1:33:56Joe House:Yeah, I was so close to writing a why not the Sixers column right before they lost to the zombie Denver Nuggets. And then Embiid goes down, Paul George gets suspended, and they make this trade at the deadline to get under the tax that signals to me and to everyone on the team, I would assume, that we're not good enough this year. So I'll look at what Daryl Morey did and I'll read that as how he assesses the team right now. Because I just also think that that was like a bad trade for Philadelphia. Jared McCain is just wrecking things in Oklahoma City right now.

1:34:32Bill Simmons:It was a weird one. I understood the logic. I did not like the trade because I think they're thinking we need trade pieces for this summer for whatever we're going to do. It's easier for us to trade the first round pick in these seconds than it would be just to have Jared McCain. I just wouldn't have traded him because all you have to do, even if you're on the cusp of trading him, go back one more time, sit in a dark room, and watch five games from last year when he looked fucking awesome. And remember that he's 21 years old. Who are you going to get that's better than him? Yeah.

1:35:05Danny Kelly:Like, well, that's the point of the stupid picks. And the reason that they have to do this is because they extended fucking Embiid unnecessarily with a huge goddamn contract that didn't make sense then and still doesn't make sense and will never make sense. I think at some point I'm going to really try and get you to do the last 15 years of the front office of the Philadelphia 76ers. Wow, that'd be a fun podcast. It is not very good. It is. And we, I mean, you know, even with our friends along for the ride here.

1:35:42Bill Simmons:House has wound up today from Trey Young Knight at the business center. All right, next category, Delusions of Granger. three teams number 15 Phoenix number 14 Miami and number 13 Toronto two of those teams are 17 and 13 and Miami is 16 and 14 their last 30 all them you can become slightly intrigued by if you think about it long enough Phoenix has the Brooks thing he's basically out until right before the playoff start and Booker who knows when he's come back Miami I don't know what to make of them but that win over the Rockets the other night at least made me go, okay, I'm not going to throw you in the garbage yet.

1:36:24Bill Simmons:And then Toronto, to me, just seems like a regular season team that it's hard for me to think they're going to do anything in a round one. Out of those three, which one would you bet on to upset somebody in a round one, Michael?

1:36:38Joe House:Ooh, that's rough. Definitely not the Suns because they're in the West. That's just not going to happen. I think the Miami Heat are feisty, respectable. They play defense. The Kal-El-Wear Bam Adebayo duo is starting to take off a little bit. They're playing them more and there's been a little bit of success in a small sample size, which is nice to see. And I will say, I don't know if you watch this game, House, but when they played the Wizards, Bam dunked on Kal-El-Wear and then flexed on him because he didn't realize it was his own teammate. And that was just like one of my favorite moments of the entire season.

1:37:16Danny Kelly:It really tells the tale of Kaleo Ware, doesn't it? BS, we went to the Celtics hosting the Heat in a game in early February where the Heat got out to a huge lead. Boston came out in that game super flat up in Boston, a home game. They were down over 25. They were definitely down 20. And Boston came all the way back. But we were so underwhelmed by Kaleo Ware. We were like, he was... He was...

1:37:43Bill Simmons:We forgot he was even in the game and dressed.

1:37:47Danny Kelly:Yeah. And then every time he came in,

1:37:49Bill Simmons:the Celtics would go on like a 7-0 run.

1:37:51Danny Kelly:Yeah. But I agree with Pina. Miami, to me, here's the ingredient I'm interested in. I feel like Hero, there's something coming together. I liked when he went into Ran.

1:38:02Bill Simmons:I thought that was a sign that he must be feeling healthy again.

1:38:05Danny Kelly:Hero, Norm Powell, and Adebayo with Eric Spolstra. Like, you dismiss that team at your own peril, I feel like.

1:38:14Bill Simmons:I think what's scary about them is the hero-powell combo of you just never know when one of them's going to go nuts. You know, in a playoff series, I say this every year, and it's both the dumbest point possible, but it's also important to remember, you only have to go four and three and you advance, right? This is the problem with the Lakers. The Lakers can win a series in seven, four games to three, and the three losses will be by 22, 28, and 31. And the three wins will be like three, four, seven, and two. But that's the thing. You're basically to be barely above 500. And when you have these two guys who can go off in any game who don't seem to care where they play either, it could be road, home, doesn't matter.

1:38:58Bill Simmons:I think they're the scariest out of those three.

1:39:00Danny Kelly:Very quietly, their defense again, top five defense.

1:39:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, so net rating in the last 30, they're plus three and a half, which is a decent sign. And we'll see with the defense if that keeps going. I think Mitchell's scary. Like as a full court, make your life miserable defender, like he's really tapped into something. So there you go. And Toronto, we just want to ignore Toronto.

1:39:26Danny Kelly:I'm going to give them credit for the success of this season. they have validated the corner that they turned like we're going to try we're actually going to try this year we have some guys we're going to try and play this style of up tempo push out you know try and force turnovers they are so soft so that I mean I applaud them going for it the way they have they have no size or strength they wilt down the stretch but good job doing what they did So it's a glass half full for me, but nothing interesting about them in the playoffs for my humble opinion.

1:40:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, they've been fairly average for two and a half months there. And Pina's just ready to move on. I can just see it in his eyes.

1:40:12Joe House:Do you disagree? No, I think Toronto beats up bad teams and loses to good teams. That's kind of who they are right now.

1:40:19Bill Simmons:They're the NFL team that House and I always, we call them the good-bad team in the NFL. It's like, cool. All right, next category. Actually, let's take a break before we get to the next category. This episode is brought to you by TaxAct. Like an expert coach, TaxAct offers step-by-step guidance and guaranteed accuracy when filing taxes. Get tips along the way, add expert assist to talk to tax experts and let our experts do your taxes for you with expert full service. TaxAct helps you find the deductions and credits you deserve so you can get them over with. Visit TaxAct.com to learn more. Conditions apply.

1:40:54Bill Simmons:See taxact.com for details.

1:41:24Danny Heifetz:be inappropriate for children under 13. Only in theaters March 20th.

1:41:27Bill Simmons:All right. Next category, the LA Enigmas. We have the LA Clippers who are 20 and 10, their last 30. And the LA Lakers who are 17 and 13 in their last 30. Clippers 12, Lakers 11. I'm very focused on this Clippers renaissance because I just know the Clippers playoff bill is now they're like, great, we can bill everybody and you're paying for all four rounds and then we'll refund you if we don't make it. There was a Niederhauser thing happening with the Clippers. I don't know how focused you guys were on this, but they traded Zubats. Oh, I'm locked in.

1:42:02Joe House:I'm locked in.

1:42:03Bill Simmons:They traded Zubats. Really, because they got an awesome trade, but also I think they liked Niederhauser and wanted to play him. And you watch him, and I've been to a couple of Clipper games. He just says that he's trying to block everything. Like literally everything. He's trying to get to chase down blocks, challenging. He's a maniac. So, of course, I loved him right away. I'm like, I'm claiming this guy. I'm buying stock and a house on his island, all that stuff. But the fear was, this guy's so crazy, he's going to get hurt. Like, he's jumping after literally everything. And at some point, this is going to backfire.

1:42:41Bill Simmons:And then, of course, last night, the stupid Indiana game that they're winning by 30, he's trying to block somebody from behind, lands on somebody, and it seemed like he's sprained his ankle. I think he's going to be okay. But they got Garland back. They're relying on Garland and Kawhi, who aren't exactly Cal Ripken and Lou Gehrig. But I think their team's pretty good. And they also have the thing you would look for in an upset situation is best guy on the floor, possibly with Kawhi, right? Top seven, eight when he's healthy. House, have you talked yourself into the Clippers at all from an upset standpoint yet or no?

1:43:18Danny Kelly:Oh, absolutely. Positively, yes. For sure. Yes, definitely. Because they have over, really since, you know, January, 24 and 10 over their last 34. It's the version of the team that we imagined when we sat down in October and it was like, can this team win 50 games? I felt like, yeah, they can. Well, there's your proof. 24 and 10. That's a pace to exceed 50 games. The thing that is the... straw in the drink that I'm interested to see the stirring is Matherin. Because you just described the effort of Niederhauser and all that all over the place. This motivated Matherin is a thing. And that's an ingredient that I'm interested in seeing.

1:44:05Danny Kelly:And I still trust Ty Lue. I still trust this team to come out. Yeah, they know who they are. And they got a couple of young guys too. I really like Miller too.

1:44:14Bill Simmons:I think Miller's good. I like Mathurin more before Jada McDaniels snatched his soul from his body with me in person last week and actually made a stew out of it. House, Clippers to advance to the Western Conference semifinals. One round. 12 to 1 on FanDuel.

1:44:33Danny Kelly:That sounds like the right price. See, that's a fair price. I don't have any issue with that. I already have. You know my bet. We did it together.

1:44:40Bill Simmons:Peanut, were you a Darius Garland guy or no?

1:44:43Joe House:I wasn't when he was in Cleveland because of how that roster was constructed. And I thought the overlap with Donovan Mitchell just would not work in a postseason series. It's a little different in LA where sure his size is his size, but there's a lot of great individual defenders and there's a lot of size and depth on the wing. So I like it a little bit more. And also they need him. They need someone who can push the pace. They need his shot creation. They need a ball handler. they have no point guard without him. And it's just like Kawhi Leonard running pick and rolls and Chris Dunn running around with his head chopped off.

1:45:16Joe House:So he's looked a little indecisive so far, but I think he'll settle in and be pretty important for this team. And I'm extremely high on the Los Angeles Clippers as per usual. That's just my MO in life, unfortunately.

1:45:29Bill Simmons:When you say they need him, I can't overstate that because going to the games and especially Minnesota did this, they don't really have a point guard. So they're like, a lot of the times the offense runs through either Kawhi or Matherin, ironically. Chris Dunn, you can't run, he can't run the offense. And they don't really have anybody who can just take an inbounds pass and dribble up the court and set stuff. So Minnesota was like, cool, we're just going to make your life miserable. And they had Io and Ant and McDaniels, like picking everybody up full court. And they were just taking the ball from the Clippers.

1:46:05Bill Simmons:so just to have somebody who actually knows how to bring the ball up dribble through his legs do a spin move get over half court set like they don't have anybody like that anymore and Harden did all of it so um I've always liked them I agree with you that the fit wasn't great with with Mitchell but on the other hand that team was awesome last year with those two guys together and He just hasn't been healthy. I thought it was a good gamble for them. Lakers, 17-13 in their last 30. Do you care, House?

1:46:38Danny Kelly:I do not. I am ready for this Lakers team to be out of our lives. I want them to lose in the first round. They don't care either. That's the most important thing. They have the point-to-ref differential of a 32-29 team. They play like a team that's barely above 500. They have that ridiculous clutch, whatever they are now, 17-5 in clutch time. But when they play games that end in double digits, they're 18 and 19. That's who this team is. That's the Lakers.

1:47:06Bill Simmons:And athletic teams are a nightmare for them. Yeah. If they played Charlotte, they would be in severe trouble. Did you ever figure out, Michael, why they just kind of punted at the trade deadline under that Luke Kennard thing when there were guys out there? Why didn't they feel like they didn't even have a puncher's chance, it didn't seem like? was their strategy. I thought it was strange.

1:47:31Joe House:Well, Rob Palenka said that Luke Kennard was quote, clearly right now the game's best shooter. So you would have anticipated he would have moved the needle for them. It hasn't worked out that way. No, I don't. I mean, that's just another case of a team that clearly did not believe in itself to make a run and deservedly so. I think they're very average and, you know, how said those great numbers? One that I don't, I don't know if this is a number that matters, but in losses, they have the worst net rating in the NBA. So that's a,

1:48:03Bill Simmons:you know what I call those loud losses. That's, that's a problem. If you catch one of their bad games, you think they're like the worst team in the world and trade everybody. And then the next night they win by three and guess what? They went one and one in those two games, but you saw that first game. You're like, that team fucking sucks. Oh my God. I can't believe how bad they are. And then it's like the next night they beat Phoenix. because, you know, Brooks and Booker aren't playing. Lurking, we are now in the top 10.

1:48:34Bill Simmons:Well, before we get to top 10, where would you have put Charlotte House in the top 10? Best 10 teams right now.

1:48:43Danny Kelly:I would have had them 10.

1:48:45Bill Simmons:Okay, how about you, Michael?

1:48:48Joe House:I like where you have them. I don't think we want to spoil it right now, but that's probably where I would put them to. Okay, fair.

1:48:53Bill Simmons:Lurking, I have four teams. And none of them are Charlotte. The Houston Rockets, 18 and 12 in their last 30. 10 and 5 in their last 15. Minnesota, 19 and 11 in their last 30, plus 4.9 rating, impressive. 11 and 4 in their last 15. The Celtics are 21 and 9. I have them number 8, plus 9.3 rating. I'll explain why I have them 8 in a second. New York, 17 and 13, plus 5.8. and New York is a classic. Catch them on the right day and you're convinced they're making the finals. Catch them on the wrong day and you're convinced that they're going to trade everybody except Jalen Brunson after the season. I'll go in order.

1:49:36Bill Simmons:Houston. Signs of life are still too flawed for you, Michael.

1:49:42Joe House:I think the book has been written on this team and once Steven Adams went out, that was it for me, to be honest. He was so critical to their identity on both ends and they still grab a bunch of offensive rebounds, but they don't grab half of them. He was so integral to how they played. And you combine that with, obviously, the loss of Fred. And I just think it's too much to overcome for this team.

1:50:06Bill Simmons:Couldn't agree more. And I know House agrees because we've texted about it regularly.

1:50:11Danny Kelly:And bet accordingly, yes.

1:50:15Bill Simmons:Number nine, Minnesota. I still feel like I've felt this way all year. that there was value in Minnesota and that people just weren't on Minnesota correctly from checking the prototype of, if a team is going to actually win the title, what do you need to have? I need to have one of the best seven players in the league. I need to be able to play defense at a really high level. I need a couple heat check guys. They do check all of it. It's been a little disjointed, but even now, how's their 33 to one to win the title? That just seems out of whack to me.

1:50:50Danny Kelly:Yeah, I mean, And yet I don't really want to bet it either,

1:50:54Bill Simmons:but it just seems like that line seems too high.

1:50:56Danny Kelly:When we're done, I'm betting that. You have to bet it. 33-1 is nuts. They made the Western Conference Finals two consecutive years. And we've had teams ahead of them in both of those years. Top 10 in both offense and defense rating-wise. And it's kind of the same team. We're waiting around. they are incented to get to the three seed I think because you definitely want to play whoever ends up in the six. They're also not afraid to play

1:51:31Bill Simmons:Denver at all if that ends up being the matchup. They would fucking welcome it.

1:51:36Danny Kelly:Yes. I agree with that. The way this is lining up, what's that going to be? The 4-5?

1:51:42Bill Simmons:You could argue wherever they end up 3-4-5-6 they're feeling really good about playing the Lakers? They're feeling really good about playing Denver, Milwaukee, Houston. Like pick, I'm not Milwaukee, Minnesota. Oh, what am I doing? I'm blanking. Houston, Denver, or the Lakers would be the three, right?

1:52:02Danny Kelly:Yes, yes.

1:52:03Bill Simmons:Well, what an old guy moment I just said. I just said Milwaukee. They're not even the West. I'm glad you caught yourself. That was great. But yeah, all three of those teams, Peanut, would they be afraid of any of those three? No way.

1:52:15Joe House:Definitely not the Lakers. You know, if the Suns were to somehow get up there gets six and Minnesota goes up to three. Just like there's a lot of great matchups for them. We'll talk about this later probably, but I personally would not. I don't want the Denver Nuggets in a seven-game series. Like the healthy Denver Nuggets, I just don't want that in the first round.

1:52:33Bill Simmons:Count me out. I can't wait to talk about Denver, but the question would be, are we getting a healthy Denver Nuggets? Very fair. So Fandle has the Timberwolves plus 100 to advance to round two, which is a line that I thought was not as good as I thought it would be. But they must be building in. They think they have a chance to get the three seed. I'm scared of Minnesota. As I said, I saw them in person last week. And I think with Io and Ant and McDaniels all out there together, it's a truly scary defensive team. With Gobert behind them, I really think there's a high ceiling for them to defend.

1:53:13Bill Simmons:Celtics, number eight. I don't want to talk about them. number we just it's it's just we don't know what we're getting with tatum i just it's like we might as well talk about the middle east and try to figure out what's happening there number seven

1:53:25Joe House:can i give you can i give you a quick celtic stat before we move on so their defense since january 1st with derrick white on the court is the exact same number as the spurs with victor women yama on the court um derrick white just won the defensive player of the month for the eastern conference and is just he's so phenomenal i just wanted to shout out derek white his season has been so terrific he's like a paint protecting guard one of the best paint protectors in the nba it's wild

1:53:54Bill Simmons:he is i think in the defensive player of the year conversation if wendy doesn't get the games i don't think he'll win it but i do think when people write the pieces he'll have to be mentioned now right because of all the advanced stats and the i will absolutely write that yeah yeah you know You know what's crazy, House? I always used to tell House one of the easiest great bets, if you're doing a parlay, was to put the Derek White one block in. Any semi-important or important game, he was just getting a block. The market has finally adjusted. He's now like minus 340 to get a win. It would be like one plus Derek White block.

1:54:32Bill Simmons:It's minus 340. It used to be like plus 120, minus 110, plus 105. five and now they treat him like he's, you know, Rudy Gobert. It's hilarious because he always gets it.

1:54:44Danny Kelly:He gets it and he gets it early. It's like he blocked somebody from behind in the first four minutes of the game. It's like, well, we'll see what happens with not worth talking about.

1:54:54Bill Simmons:And then too much unknown. Not a lot of unknown with the Knicks at this point, 17 and 13 in their last 30 plus 5.8. You know, Sunday, they look great against the Spurs. It was also an afternoon game on the East Coast at MSG, and San Antonio couldn't make a shot. I still don't love how Brunson-dependent they are. I still don't understand the Mitchell Robinson can't play back-to-back thing, although if they're saving him for the playoffs, great. The Bridges part is weird. The part where nobody guards Josh Hart really at all, if it's a good team, that's part of the strategy. So there's some things going against them.

1:55:34Bill Simmons:Have you seen anything that makes you think that they're a realistic finals team, Pina?

1:55:40Joe House:I don't want to come across as a Knicks hater. I just, when your two best players are so weak defensively, it is really hard to win four playoff series. And, you know, I was watching the Oklahoma City Thunder game that they just lost the other night. And you watch crunch time of that game. and I have a theory that Mike Brown is playing Landry Schammett in crunch time so that teams will hunt Landry Schammett instead of Jalen Brunson. That's something that is going to happen over and over and over again in the playoffs. We see it every year. I think that when you run up against a team, like if they were to play the Cleveland Cavaliers, James Harden would bring him into the action every single possession.

1:56:21Joe House:So it's just, it's tough. It's really tough. You got to have elite shot making. You got to be really cohesive with your defensive rotations and Mitch Robinson's only playing like what, 20 minutes a game? That's his limit. So it's just, it's really difficult. There's just not a margin for error.

1:56:36Bill Simmons:House isn't a huge fan. I am. You're wrong. You're a huge fan? When did you become a huge fan?

1:56:43Danny Kelly:No, I have futures on the Knicks. I think that they, especially after watching that Oklahoma City game, that was like validation for me. That felt like a very high level of play validation of the Knicks being able to get in and go with anybody. Now, I know no J-Dub for OKC. Did he retire? Is J-Dub ever coming back? What happened to him? The Knicks have the best, since mid-January, they have the best defense in the NBA by almost a full point per 100 possessions. The Knicks. so there's something inside the chemistry there that is happening and when we just watched a 100 to 3 to 100 game and they were two missed threes that's toe to toe with the team that I think is still the best team in the NBA I have the Knicks up there I think they're too low in this power pole

1:57:44Bill Simmons:one of the things that I don't like about them surface last night they're down 3 rebound waste 10 seconds and then call the timeout so there's 6 seconds left and it was just like I just don't think they have one of the best coaches in the league I would just say that we've had a lot of at bats with Mike Brown he's solid can take it to the game 7 of a round 1 but it was just like such an obvious call the timeout 7 seconds before he called it and the irony is they ended up getting good 3's and missed the 3's but I really liked Dan and Obi down the stretch in that game. Zach and I talked Sunday about the best perimeter guys.

1:58:26Bill Simmons:We were talking about the two Thompson's. I had Jaden McDaniels, Dorit and Caruso, and then I think we had Dan and Obi. I think we probably had Dan and Obi too low because it was really interesting watching Shea try to unlock him. Shea trying to get all the stuff he normally gets, but trying to solve this taller guy who's just a nightmare. yeah, I'm probably a little too low in the Knicks. I just think they've been too erratic. Like every time I start to buy into it, you turn it on and they're down 17 in like, you know, freaking Atlanta or something. That was my toughest one. So I had them seven.

1:59:04Bill Simmons:I had the wild cards, Charlotte six, Denver five. The Charlotte thing is just a pure going on the history of when teams go to this level in January and February. And we have a tendency not to take that seriously enough. and I'm just taking it seriously. Like, I just think they've proven now that they're a really good team. They're young, they're healthy. I like having younger teams going into the playoffs. We talked about them already. Pina, you just wrote this huge piece about Jokic, who I have number five. They're 16 and 14 in their last 30. They're 17 in their last 15. You wrote the thing that as a longtime Jokic guy has concerned me, that his stats, the stats that really made him special, especially this year, are going a little sideways.

1:59:49Bill Simmons:Because I update my stats every week for the MVP and All-NBA and stuff. And he was always 60 % field goal, this stuff. All of a sudden, the stats were looking a little more normal for him than they were. And it's because since he came back, he's not quite the same guy. And you laid this out in the piece today. So for the audience, tell them what you found.

2:00:09Joe House:Yeah, I mean, his shooting numbers from the floater zone, which is his bread and butter, the spot-up threes that he gets on the pick-and-pop with Jamal Murray, even his free throws. Just everything is down kind of dramatically from what it was pre-knee injury. And that doesn't even begin to talk about the defense, which I've always thought he was a little bit of an underrated defender. Me too. And right now, it's just tough. I mean, there's some just peak Matador situations. I mean, the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards just kind of skating past him on the perimeter was really rough.

2:00:50Joe House:Even like Keontae George, they nearly lost to the Utah Jazz the other day. Keontae George was just going to the rim left and right. So I think the defense is—

2:00:58Bill Simmons:And they're trying to lose, and they still almost beat Timber.

2:01:02Joe House:So I think the defense stinks, and that's tough. But for me, health is just a huge component here. And I think the way that they play is different without, you know, the guy in the dunker spot, like Gordon or Peyton Watson to threaten and space the floor like that. So I think when they get healthy and they get bigger, like I just, I love Jokic. I can't quit this guy. He's still so phenomenal that that game he had against the Celtics without Jamal Murray in the second half was just like, I am the best player on the planet.

2:01:32Bill Simmons:So that's why I wonder like how much of this is rust and how much of this is health. Because if you watch that Celtic game, he looked like Jokic. I didn't I wanted to put them higher than five and the sample size was just too big but I also think they don't have Peyton Watson who turned into the super sub for them and then I have Gordon who's the third most important guy on the team and the guy that swings them from a first or second round team to a finals team so five seemed okay we have some Denver bets are you concerned at all

2:02:04Danny Kelly:no I'm not concerned at all because I believe that these guys that have been suffering these injuries, laboring to get back, will get back, and that we will see the full version of this team right as the playoffs get going, and that is exciting. That's what we're after. I think you have Denver in exactly the right place, even though they are behind both Houston and Minnesota in the standings right now. It's the potential. it's the pedigree and I think it's right to give them that respect, give them that nod, even though the game against Utah, it's really... They're short on wings.

2:02:50Bill Simmons:Cam Johnson's who I was probably too hard on the other night because I think he's hurt and certainly seems to be gutting it out, but at the same time there's a piece to Denver. Murray's been so good this year. and Jokic obviously is Jokic and I do wonder if it's tough sometimes Gordon figured it out Gordon has figured out exactly when he's healthy how to play with those guys how to get all his shots on the right things but I do wonder sometimes with some of these other wing dudes and supporting characters like somebody like Peyton Watson who was doing a lot of the stuff that he was doing without Jokic or Cam Johnson who doesn't touch the ball for 40 minutes and then all of a sudden is being asked to take the two biggest shots of the game.

2:03:35Bill Simmons:Jokic is both awesome to play with, but also in the last five, six minutes where these two guys are doing everything and then all of a sudden it's like, okay, can you make this one shot? It's like, I haven't touched the ball in an hour. I just, you're bringing Gordon back, you're bringing Watson back and you're just doing this in real time as the playoffs are starting. It really makes me nervous. I think they have some stuff to figure out and I don't think Jokic is 100 % Every game is the other thing. There might be games where maybe his knee is a little more sore than the other games. The Celtic game, he was great.

2:04:09Bill Simmons:If he's playing back-to-backs, if you're playing, especially when we have those series where you're just playing every other night for two weeks and he's not 100 % healthy, that makes me nervous. Okay, the contenders. Cleveland, number four, Detroit, number three, and San Antonio, number two. How's, do you agree with that order?

2:04:28Danny Kelly:Yes, no issue with it whatsoever. I would have the Knicks in here. ahead of Cleveland, but I don't have any issue. So you would move the next up to five. Okay.

2:04:36Bill Simmons:Pina, any questions with that order?

2:04:39Joe House:I would have Cleveland three and Detroit four.

2:04:43Bill Simmons:Interesting. I didn't quite have the balls to do that, but I do feel more comfortable if it was a bet your life situation. So it's 55-45 to me going toward Cleveland to make the finals over Detroit. Those are my only two picks.

2:04:59Joe House:Yeah, Cleveland was just in Brooklyn the other day and someone there at the game told me that they were just completely unafraid of the Detroit Pistons. And they had just lost to Detroit without Donovan Mitchell and James Harden in an overtime game that they should have won in Detroit. And then they beat them with Harden after that. And I just think that this team is just ridiculous. I think they have so much shooting, so much wing depth. And I, you know, the Harden thing is the Harden thing. We'll see how that goes in the postseason. Is that what we're calling it now? I know.

2:05:35Bill Simmons:The Harden thing? The thing of sucking when the games most matter?

2:05:40Joe House:I would say this is, you know, not to make excuses, with this is probably the best situation that he's been in for a variety of reasons. And Donovan Mitchell being there and yeah, I don't even need to go through it, but it's a good situation for him.

2:05:53Bill Simmons:Honeymoon Harden, a Joe House favorite.

2:05:57Danny Kelly:17-5 since mid-January, this Cleveland team and something outstanding since the All-Star break, since the acquisition of Harden, right? Like only one or two lost. The rating is outstanding. I love this Cavs team, but we are already getting these little Oh, Donovan Mitchell's got a groin. Oh, we saw Harden with the thumb. And Jared Allen left the game.

2:06:21Bill Simmons:Highest ceiling in the East. I feel like I've talked about this a couple times in the pot already, but the Detroit just really only having Cade at the end of these games, I don't think is sustainable for three straight playoff rounds. As great as he is. They just don't have that extra guy who I can trust to create a shot. And that's one of the things with Charlotte. you know, where if Charlotte plays Detroit in round one, Charlotte has five guys who can create a shot, you know? And if they're going to go toe-to-toe, they're going to be able to at least feel comfortable doing it. I just feel like we're going to see Charlotte versus Detroit in round one.

2:06:56Bill Simmons:I think that fight was like a pre... There's some sort of weird karmic thing. I feel like we're going to see it. I don't know. And I think Charlotte could beat them. San Antonio, number two here. And I would say probably a half a level above these two teams for me from a ceiling standpoint. The youth and the... I don't know. I just really value having been there before. We've been watching this forever. It's so rare for a team to just be like, we're here. Oh, now we're beating everybody. It never works out that way. We've really only seen that with the 86 Rockets. Even the 95 Magic, the year before they got a taste of it, I think, if I'm remembering it correctly, but I don't know.

2:07:44Bill Simmons:I just, for them to just win the title this year just seems so foreign to my brain. Do you have a take on this, Michael?

2:07:50Joe House:I think they're definitely a title contender. I'm really interested to see their next seven games, I think it is. They have Pistons, Clippers, Rockets, Celtics, Nuggets, Hornets, and then back, they go on the road. Those are all home games. They go on the road to play the Clippers again. So I want to see that stretch. I want to see if they go 5-2, 6-1, really assert themselves, really care about winning those games. I don't know. We'll see. But they're definitely a championship contender for me, especially since they changed their starting five, moving Champagny in for Harrison Barnes. They've been absolutely terrific.

2:08:28Joe House:So, yeah, Wemby is Wemby. I mean, he's absolutely insane on defense, completely controls basketball games without touching the ball. They're a championship contender for sure.

2:08:40Bill Simmons:13-2 in their last 15, plus 7.5 rating in their last 30.

2:08:49Bill Simmons:We haven't really talked about it, but I love Harper. I don't know. It's weird to call him the X factor of the playoffs because I don't even think he's one of their four best players, but I've been so impressed by the defense with him and just the athleticism. And I don't even know what he's going to be. I really almost want to study him in these next two weeks. I don't know what his ceiling is as a player. I don't know who to compare him to. But I just like everything he does. I just think he's like a pure basketball player who gives a shit, who's multi-skilled, who can play with or without the ball, and is just additive.

2:09:28Bill Simmons:I really like him.

2:09:29Danny Kelly:I think it's literally the very best possible situation for him to have landed in the draft. For him to arrive with this group, the way that this group has come together this year in this unexpected way, they're all lifting each other up. Every move is a Midas touch move. The Champagny thing, underrated, but look at what an impact it has. and Basel and Castle. It's just such a tough team, like so capable of imposing their own physicality on teams. I just love the way that they go at OKC. They could play, if you want to let, you know, skip to the Western Conference finals and let me have a 15-game series of OKC against San Antonio, I'm here for it.

2:10:21Danny Kelly:Sign me up.

2:10:22Bill Simmons:What a cool series and what a great thing for the league that would be. This is why when we talk about the face of the league and all that stupid shit, the league's always going to be fine. There's always going to be the next team coming and there's always going to be a rivalry we couldn't have expected. Champagny started out on Philly, by the way, House. Would you put that in your 15 years of negligent Philly moves that they had Champagny briefly? I mean, it doesn't rise to the level of...

2:10:52Danny Kelly:The Paul George signing? Or the Bridges trade. It's not quite up there. It's moving Bridges at the draft.

2:10:59Bill Simmons:How is San Antonio minus 550 to make it at a round one? And then to advance to the Western Finals. What do you think those odds are? San Antonio to be in round three.

2:11:15Danny Kelly:To make it to the Western Finals. Less than... Minus... No, not minus. Plus 160? Any idea, Pina?

2:11:30Joe House:I'm out of my depth right now. Oh, with the game myself.

2:11:33Bill Simmons:Sorry. They are minus 105 to make round three. Basically, even odds to win two series.

2:11:40Danny Kelly:I got... It's a team that has no playoff games with this nucleus.

2:11:44Bill Simmons:Like, that's...

2:11:45Danny Kelly:You heard me catch myself. I was about to say, like, minus one. I was like, no, there's no way. But that's the thing.

2:11:52Bill Simmons:And that's, I think the bigger point of this season is some of these teams like Charlotte, San Antonio, that might just be ready to win some playoff games. San Antonio, certainly. Charlotte, maybe. And then we have OKC number one. I don't know. Like, I'm sure J-Dub, they're taking everything easy. I think big picture, when you have these five, six-year runs where you're playing 100 games a year, it's probably a good thing to have these guys not playing 80 game seasons, than doing these playoff runs. But have you seen anything from OKC? They're 20-10 in their last 30. Have you seen anything from them in the last two months that made you nervous, Michael?

2:12:31Joe House:Not nervous, no. I mean, Hartenstein's, Isaiah Hartenstein's calf is recurring injury also that you want to keep an eye on. Alex Caruso fell on his hip last night against the Knicks, and he's just one of the more reckless players in the league, and he had to leave, didn't come back. So injuries are kind of a factor. here for this team. And obviously JW, as you said, is a big one. That's kind of a mystery right now. What is his injury? Hamstring.

2:13:02Danny Kelly:Takes forever to heal.

2:13:04Joe House:Recurring. Yeah. So that's a tough one, but they just keep winning games. They still have an elite defense. They have Shea, who makes every single shot he takes. So I'm not too worried about them. House?

2:13:16Danny Kelly:I loved that game against the Knicks. I loved them going into Madison Square Garden for a prime time, like the whole league is watching and the way that they came out and took advantage immediately of, you know, collapsing to the middle and Chet Holm and getting touch after touch after touch and knocking them down. That was like a championship pedigree kind of matchup. And to the Knicks credit, I mean, what the Knicks did in the third quarter was awesome, gave it right back to them. but that was very reassuring. It restored my faith in what they're capable of, what their next level looks like and where all the guys come in.

2:13:59Danny Kelly:Wiggins had a dunk. I was like, yeah, remember? That's how they do. That's how they do it. I was fired up from that game.

2:14:08Bill Simmons:Plus, they're America's Villains and Shea wore a giant weird fur coat thing, whatever the hell that was. They're just weird. The Thunder are just getting their weird on. what was that they're so strange um if you had to help Chet with his hair facial hair situation House what would you recommend is there anything differently he could do would you go bigger beard bigger beard is interesting longer like shaggier

2:14:36Danny Kelly:hair no no no no shave head would you shave it shorter up top I would bring it down because the problem is uh it looks like his head and face are about two and a half feet long. When you go from the top of the hair to his chin, it feels like you got almost a full yard, almost a full football yard to get from the top to the... Anyway, I would try and tighten it up a little bit.

2:15:03Bill Simmons:I think I would go tighter on the hair and I think I would go beard but longer. I'd go longer face. Like you zag. It's like your face looks too long. I'd go longer with the beard and really try to look more intimidating. Could also do maybe a handlebar type of thing. Just trying to think of, like, I was watching Shot Caller last week, some of the looks in that movie. Like, maybe, because ultimately, like, his toughness is going to be the key to the team, right? You want people like, oh, shit, Chet, he looks like a badass. They might have to play the Pistons. You know, Jalen Duren just coming in like, okay.

2:15:40Bill Simmons:Okay, young boy.

2:15:41Danny Kelly:I don't think there's any facial hair construct that's going to take Bull Duren off the case of Jed Holmgren.

2:15:47Bill Simmons:House, did you have an opinion on a Concanipple nickname before we go?

2:15:50Danny Kelly:2K was awesome. If we're going to do 2K for Concanipple and you want to do Bull Duren, those are two modern guys. Did you like the Giddler or no? Absolutely.

2:16:04Danny Kelly:So many in our lives. We're not allowed to talk about that guy. Not allowed to talk about him.

2:16:10Bill Simmons:Were you down with 2K, Michael?

2:16:12Joe House:Yeah, sure. Let's go with that. But he's kind of like a one-name person, though. You know what I mean? Like Knipple, we'll all know who we're talking about. Or Khan. Yeah. Khan's fine. Or Khan.

2:16:21Bill Simmons:Yeah. God, he had one of those flare screen last nights where I don't know how many guys in history have been able to run that play with the half-second pick where they just get a three off. It's basically him and Klay, right? Not counting Curry. Curry doesn't count for any of these things. But you know what I mean? Reggie Miller. I'm talking normal. Ray Allen. I don't know. I'm talking normal players.

2:16:45Danny Kelly:Okay, okay.

2:16:47Bill Simmons:I don't even know. I honestly don't even know if Ray Allen got it off like this. Who else is on that list?

2:16:55Joe House:Cotton Knipple is just, I don't even know what to say. His shot release is insane. I don't understand it. He's 20. The fact that he's not in his ninth year makes my brain melt out of my ears. It doesn't compute, the fact that this is a rookie.

2:17:10Bill Simmons:His thing about how he was playing in men's leagues when he was 14, and that's one of the reasons, because he's used to playing basketball with grown men and knowing where to go and what to do and get the ball. It's like, maybe he stumbled onto some new way to, like, maybe we need to dump AU and just put 14-year-olds in men's leagues, and that's the new strategy.

2:17:30Danny Kelly:That's the advantage of the international players. Denny Obdia was playing with grown men. Or my guy, Hugo.

2:17:36Bill Simmons:Best net rating in the league, Hugo Gonzalez.

2:17:39Danny Kelly:gotta give out Mahmoud Abdul-Raouf if we're gonna talk about quick releases gotta do it that's a good one too

2:17:46Bill Simmons:it's almost weirder when the guy's 6 '7 6 '8 he's 6 '6 and just needs like a half second I don't know it's gonna be really interesting I thought how Portland defended him was probably the blueprint in the playoffs where they just like crashed every top of the line screen they just put bigger guys on them or guys that were the same size, and they really were determined not to let him get off. But then Miller got going. That's the problem with that team. House, I'm admitting defeat on Brandon Miller versus Scoot Henderson. Rare draft loss for me. I still think I'm in the winning side of these lottery pick ones, but that's going to be an L.

2:18:26Bill Simmons:It's okay. I remember making fun of KOC about it on my pod that he was wrong. I might have gotten freaked out by the car accident, whatever happened, or no, the car with a, wasn't there a gun? There was some sort of bad Brandon Miller story for the draft.

2:18:39Danny Kelly:Yeah, very bad. Yeah, I didn't like that.

2:18:41Bill Simmons:Turned out that might have been an overreaction. I've learned some lessons there about maybe not overreact to an incident. But yeah, I think that was finally the last. All right, Michael Pena, you can read him at the Ringer. Listen to him on a bunch of our podcasts. Joe House, Rear and Gambley Show, Fairway Wrong, go to the Players next week.

2:18:56Danny Kelly:Yeah, we're going to be down in TPC Sawgrass with all the big boys.

2:19:00Bill Simmons:Unbelievable. The greatest video game golf course of all time. The 17th. The best. The 17th. We'll be there. All right. Thanks, guys. Good to see you. Thanks, Bill. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to the Dannys. Thanks to House and Pina. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget to vote for CR Month on the Rewatchables Instagram feed. Don't forget about new Rewatchables coming on Monday, Fargo. And if you missed the one we did this week, it's Sicario. I'm going to be back Sunday night with Zach Lowe. We're going to be coming on live on Netflix right after the Rocket Spurs game, which should be a really, really good game.

2:19:40Bill Simmons:But we're going to find out what Jason Tatum, we think, looks like. We're going to find out what Cooper Flagg thought about playing in Boston five years ahead of when he officially joins the Celtics. And we're going to find out how the weekend went. So can't wait to do it. And good luck to Jason Tatum. I will see you guys on Sunday. Enjoy the weekend.

2:20:07I don't have a few years with them On the wayside

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