Niners Magic, Schlitt Happens, a Red Sox Postmortem, the Seahawks Ceiling, and Week 5 NFL Picks With Kevin Hench and Joe House

28:17Meanwhile, as we recorded this, the Rams driving for a possible game-winning touchdown. This could be yet another Kyle Shanahan has the lead and then collapses late game. I don't know how he does it. If you win three games with Matt Jones, you should go right to the Hall of Fame. I'm sorry. You should get the Aaron Boone extension. Obviously, I've been watching baseball, so I don't know how Mac Jones is done tonight, but it's pretty crazy. Well, big picture thoughts. So, Mike Schur, our friend, texted that it's the least talented Red Sox playoff team since the Jose Offerman years. And that sent a chill down my spine because I remember those 90s teams kind of talking yourself into the chance while deep down knowing this was a freaking mismatch and that these Yankees teams were juggernauts and we weren't going to be there.

29:11Now, the reasons for that, there are a lot of injuries, like a comic amount of injuries this year combined with some bad free agent moves. But I also feel like the nucleus isn't that far away. I think my guy, Kyron Williams, just fumbled at the one-yard line. Come on. He remandre Stevenson'd it. No. I think so. I think so. I'm sorry. He just remandre'd it? He remandre'd it at the six-inch line. I just looked up because I thought I was getting my third Kyron Williams touchdown. The Niners are celebrating. Sorry, sorry. Nucleus. 2026 nucleus. But what I'd say, okay. So, you know, I don't know if Tristan Casas is a 3.2 war or a 2.5 war, but we've never really been given an opportunity to see his ceiling.

30:03Like, does he hit 27 home runs and walk 90 times? Like, Tristan Casas, I'd like to see him play a season at first base if it's physically possible for him. I would have traded him last February, as we argued about many times, for one of those Seattle guys. That would have been the correct move. You know, another guy who can't stay on the field, but if he could, Marcelo Maher showed us a lot defensively, and he's got a great swing. you and I have been with him for years in rotisserie and we know he has trouble staying on the field. But if he could play second base. Trouble. Every day, that would be a huge upgrade.

30:46We drafted him. We had the first pick in the ale keeper thing in the minors. We drafted him over Volpe. And I think every single year he's had the red flag next to his name on our team roster thing for at least two months. Well, he never happened again. Yeah. He never makes it to the finish line. You know, I told you my dad has given up on him. He's like, I just don't think he's ever going to be healthy. He's not showing us that he can be a durable baseball player. I have not given up on him. So, so I, you know, hopefully that's not the case. Obviously the outfield of Roman, Sedan, Willier and Duran in some combination and rotation is pretty good.

31:26What about Yoshida, who was the best hitter we had for the last five weeks of the season that we made fun of all through July. Um, and then, and then if you, you know, story seems to have, he was great. He was had an incredible season. He was healthy. And you and I were just talking earlier about the Bregman thing, which is suddenly confusing and terrifying because explain that for the audience, because this seemed like he was going to opt out at the end of the year after he had this awesome season and then sign a bigger deal. But then he got hurt, comes back and I'm not sure I want to send him to a bigger deal.

32:02So, you know, the Tigers thought they were getting Bregman because they offered him a six year deal and had crazy money. And then the Red Sox offered him a three year deal for 120 million with the option to opt out, which is like, you know, you're going to make 120 million, but you're also betting on yourself. Like it's a double whammy. You get, you get 120 million, but you know, So he was so good right away that I was like, oh, we should give him the Tigers deal. Like, then he got hurt. Then he came back and he was excellent. Then he vanished. From August 22nd on, he was like the second worst player in baseball.

32:42It was, he was, he couldn't, he could not drive the ball. And then, you know, Barrett, Brian Barrett was saying, if Meyer had been healthy, he He could have played two days a week at third base and Bregman might have made it to the finish line. But it's like, well, you can't sign a guy to a six year extension if you're already thinking about how to play him five days a week. Well, you forgot the irony of this whole thing is that part of the reason that they traded Mookie Betts, which they were dumb enough to tell us when John Henry did the whole thing about these big free agent contracts, when these guys hit their 30s, they transform into you know a different level of player so it's like now you're just going to overpay Bregman so it'll be interesting if they just completely do the opposite of why they traded Mookie Betts which is still one of the worst trades in the history of Boston you know so now so I was I was against Bregman across the board it when it was rumored because I felt it felt desperate it just felt like they had struck out they needed to do something so we wouldn't be mad at them and I was looking at that baseball card and I was looking at like the year he knew what was coming versus all the other years.

33:54And I was like, this is a decline phase in the making. We could get overtime in this, this, this game Rams kick off back to 30. Wow. This is some exciting podcasting. Of course there's a flag. So I was kind of like, I was like this, uh, I don't love this Bregman signing. And then I just had to shut up because he was incredible. We were like in awe of how good he was the first five weeks. And like an incredible leader. Yeah, he was great defensively, great base runner, everything. Plaining the game to guys. And so, you know, such a great presence. But then watching him, you know, hit shallow fly balls for six weeks down the stretch was rough and not a great salary drive.

34:41Like, you know, he obviously had a huge hit in game one. Um, but, uh, yeah, it wasn't, it was, you didn't feel, um, the confidence. He didn't feel like the same guy. Ironically, you had a lot more confidence in story. I mean, I, I always thought story was going to hit the ball hard by the end of the season. And Yoshida. Um, I think Duran is probably the trade piece cause he's on a reasonably, uh, reasonably good deal. I think they get a picture for him and, uh, they have other outfitters to play his position. Right. Yeah. I mean, we have four outfielders for three spots. And the thing about Duran, he's so terrible against lefties.

35:27And if you're in a division and in a league where you're going to have to deal with Max Freed and Carlos Ordone every year, what is the point of having this guy that you have to either not play at all or drop him way down in the order because he can't hit the two best pitchers on your rival? his value shrinks. So you've got to go get somebody who can hit those two guys. He could play center for a bunch of teams. It's not like he couldn't help. So the Rams, third and 10 now, 32nd side. It's so weird because I watched him play center field and he graded out very well and he didn't regularly drop balls in center field.

36:11That drop against the Yankees was, you know, he had like a bunch of those this year where he just gets kind of disoriented on his route to the ball and then gets there and doesn't finish the easiest part, catching a baseball with a baseball glove. So we had eight figure guys this year for Money Wise. Yoshida, 18. Bregman, 25. Story, 22 and a half. Chapman, 10.8. They're bringing him back. G. Alito, 19, which I think triggered an option that he's in control of for next year. So he might be coming back. Matt's at 12.5. Jordan Hicks, 12.5. Couldn't make the playoff roster. The third in the punch bowl of the Rodfield Devers trade, we knew with him immediately.

37:00It was just 99 right down the middle and guys teeing off. And then Bueller at 21 million who got waived. so um wow that there's a lot of poo poo platter in there well so here are the yankees cole 36 redon 28 freed 14 and a half goldie 12 and a half mcmahon 12 and a half judge 40 bellinger 27 and stanton 32 the contract that everybody said was too expensive and meanwhile he's fucking terrifying when you're going it's been a playoff series it's a miracle when you get him out you can't believe like you escaped him he hits 300 miles per hour worth of balls on consecutive swings like yeah that was foul was like 200 miles an hour and then he hits one that he thinks is gone and i didn't like i just don't know how a guy who can look that bad it just feels like you could you you can bounce the ball up to him sometimes and he'll swing it at anything and then the playoff the playoffs come around and and it's like nope i'm i'm only gonna hit lasers Well, so big picture with this Red Sox.

38:06Roman is the only thing that matters. Like ultimately, like we could talk about all this other stuff, but you know, I, we didn't talk about him a lot on this podcast because I didn't want people to think I was a maniac, but we just were like in awe of how incredible he is. That was the best rookie season for the part that he played that I can remember since Nomar in 97, when Nomar would just come up and just hit these rockets time and time again. You're like, this guy's a rookie. and Anthony I think was better than him because you know obviously he hit the 497 foot home run in Worcester and it was like oh my god you know Roy Hobbs this is mythical this guy's coming and then struggled out of the gate and was kind of like alright that's what rookies usually do and clearly he figured it out and then the three at bats that come to mind which make it so depressing about how our season ended and how his season ended but so we're in minnesota after the turbulent flight and they bring in johan duran who's definitely going to get moved but he throws 100 miles an hour with movement and roman's unfazed there's no pitcher he's phased by he gets the game-winning base hit off duran um then against the astros they bring in a lefty specialist who like hasn't given up a hit on his slider to a left-handed batter all year.

39:30Roman goes off the base of the wall for the winning hit and, you know, immediately on the pitch. No. And we're, and we're texting when he's coming up, like Roman's going to hit the sky. Roman's going to hit this guy. We don't care what the numbers are. We're, we're so confident in him. And then of course the, the greatest moment of our season, he takes Paul skeins deep while Peyton totally his dad is being interviewed live and Peyton Tully's pitching a shutout and he hits one off skeins like who the fuck's Paul skeins I don't give a shit and then Peyton Tully's dad is like that ball's gone and we're like this this that moment that was obviously the peak of our season because then Cora likes totally come out for the sixth and it all falls apart and then Roman tears a muscle that didn't exist when Hank Aaron and Willie Mays were playing but I don't get that part either But anyway, so we've already seen that nobody dominates Roman Anthony, that there's no points.

40:25Once you're launching off Paul Skeens, there's nobody better than that. So he is, you know, the reason we're going to be so excited in March. Crochet is the guy. I mean, that that performance where he gives up the home run to Volpe and then he just said, well, that's it for you guys. That is it for you guys. 17 in a row are going down. And then Baio made a big leap until he didn't. So he's probably a three or four guy. Kind of ran out of gas the last six weeks. I think early is going to be a three or four guy. You know, can How come back and be a three or four guy? Can Crawford come back? Those guys.

41:06But, you know, to your point, what we need. Will they spend money on a starter? Who's Max Freed this year? Can we get that guy? We need the second. we need the number two starter, you know? And it's like, when you look at the bubble gum and matchsticks that we tried to put this roster together within the series against the Yankees, and then look at the Dodgers who are like, okay, well, obviously Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Otani are never going to give up a run, but what do we do about the bullpen? And they go, oh, look in our garage, we have this hundred mile an hour, like just laying around.

41:41Like we, everyone forgot about him. It's like, Oh, he throws a hundred. Let's have him go close out the series. It's like the Dodgers roster is so comically deep. You're just like, you know, we, his pies would be our best hitter. Like he would have, he would have hit third in our lineup in the series. We used to spend money like that though. Nobody spent money like that. No, not money like the Dodgers, but we used to be in the, in the stratosphere where we would have an embarrassment of riches. And we're so torn because we love Mookie eternally because he's just the fucking greatest human being to ever play professional sports.

42:17And so we don't like it when he's got a 690 OPS and playing shortstop seems to be ruining his career. And then the playoffs come and he's just hitting lasers all over the place. They're like, OK, big picture. We need the Yankees to lose just because that's what we need to begin with. But also, I'm a little worried about them next year because this Schlittner, I don't know, that was a pretty, I know it was against our crappy lineup, but we were watching him the last two and a half months. He was throwing 100 every time he pitched. And he just looked like, oh, this guy, they have something. And he's going to be their number four starter next year because Cole will be back at some point.

43:01Rodon, they still have. Freed, Cole, Rodon, Schlittler. Schlittler is your number four? is terrifying. And are they keeping Bednar? They are, right? Because I think... It's your right to be terrified. That is a terrifying rotation. Not to mention they still have, you know, Stanton and Judge are going to be back. They're going to have Jazz. By the way, that was another great thing about this series. Boone not playing Jazz in game one was like a gift. That guy's... I don't care if he's lefty or righty. I don't want him in the game. He does too many good things, even if he's not going to get a hit.

43:36so and and I mean you know in all all the all the things it took for us to lose a one-run game last night you know Whitlock threw jazz change-ups that everybody swings at like he's through him these change-ups they were like that looks like a strike for 59 feet and he just on them you're like you can't throw a better pitch you can't throw a change-up that's a strike that he'll hit it so he lays off it he walks but we're still okay unless the count goes to three two and wells hits the fucking chalk right and then he scores by six inches like it was the nightmare of all the things that had to go down for for us to lose by one run and and it all happened and that's and what do you think is the best baseball team you watch more of the other teams than i do well i i've been very high on the Mariners since they got all those guys.

44:33And you, you've you, because we got them in Roto, you've been, um, Oh, Naylor, we're keeping him next year. Yeah. Naylor for 24 is happening. I mean, our Roto season came down to not going an extra dollar for Cal rally and letting him go. And then spending the money we would have spent on Cal rally on Christian Campbell, thinking he was going to be like the next guy. And he had a month and a half and was never seen again. that April may be unprecedented in baseball history. I mean, I'll let the Tim Kirchens dig into it, but he just hit nothing but line drives for a month against major league pitching.

45:10And then - We were comparing him to Mookie Betts. We were like, this is what Mookie was like when he was young, just line drives. And then starting on May 1st, he did not hit a ball over 70 miles an hour. Yeah, the league figured out something with him and that was that. All right, give us your 32nd, the Patriots might win in Buffalo on Sunday night case. You know, I think that Bill's defense stinks like, and I think Drake may is good. So, you know, we, our defense is not as good as I thought it would be. Obviously looked a lot better with, with our full compliment of players, including Gonzo.

45:46But I think if the bills, if we're within a score late, I think we could drive on that defense. And if, and if it's 31, 130. I hope Vrabel goes for two. Well, we'll be talking about that on Ringer 107. My last question. The good son at the end when she's holding Macaulay Culkin and Elijah Wood, and she doesn't have the strength to keep both and has to drop one of them. Oh, no. You're holding Drake May and Roman Anthony, and you only have the strength to keep one. Who do you keep? Goodbye, Drake. Goodbye, Drake. I love you. Yeah, you love Roman Anthony. I love Roman Anthony. Since we've known each other, I don't think, not even Tatum.

46:30I think Roman Anthony is number one for you. He's one of one. He really is. I mean, he was like must watch. It was the first time in a couple years where I was like going out of my way to watch at-bats from a Red Sox sitter. I think Manny was probably the Ortiz, I guess like 2013 range Ortiz. but Manny was the last one where I was like I just don't want to miss a single pitch with this dude and the way he carries himself like his interviews he seems like he's from another time like he's just so great he's like his family his parents are going every game they just seem like good Hanks meanwhile I'm like do I have to hold my breath every time he swings as hard as he can like is this oblique something that's gonna we didn't have these obliques and Achilles when we were growing up with sports.

47:21It was my day. Yeah, people would just blow out their knee every once in a while. All right, Kevin Hench, great to see you as always. Can't wait to figure out our Ale Keeper team with you over the course of the winter as we debate on Schlittner for$19. He roped us in. He's definitely, we're going to keep him and it'll probably put some sort of curse on him. Would you go back in time and kill baby Schlittler?

47:47See you, Hench. All right, brother. All right, we're recording this before Rams Niners. So whatever happens in that game, we don't know. It's happening in the future. Ringer 107 also happening in the future. We're going to come up with some picks. We did okay last week. I felt like it could have been better. I wanted to throw some October odds stuff at you. Just that stuff I noticed on FanDuel, like Josh Allen now being a minus odds for MVP. He's minus 105. Feels early for that. And yet I couldn't come up with somebody I like more. Herbert's 6-1, Mahomes is plus 650. Nobody else has really emerged.

48:21But do you agree with Allen having minus MVP odds? No, but they have this incredible schedule in front of them. It's really hard to go through the Buffalo schedule and find losses. And if they end up 14-3, it seems like everybody else, the Chiefs look like they're fine, but they're like a 12-5 team. The Rams. The one that does kind of intrigue me is Matthew Stafford. Now, I'll knock on wood right now. Yeah. You know, he will have played. It will have results from that game when people are hearing this. But how about Drake May at 70 to 1? Nothing. Come on, man. Drake, Drake, maybe. Nothing at all.

49:04No, thank you. No, thank you. Are you in the Drake, maybe camp? No, I do expect a really good game from him out of this Buffalo. This is a great referendum on Drake. Maybe let's see. Let's see it. He's Drake definitely for me. Some division odds that jumped out to me. AFC North, Pittsburgh still plus 185. And taping this on a Thursday afternoon, who knows if Lamar is playing or not. They're claiming he might try to play against Houston this week. But Pittsburgh plus 185 still feels mildly enticing. It feels like they can get to 9-8. I'm not betting it, but I just thought the odds would be lower.

49:39Did you notice that one? Yeah, I'm looking at it. I don't know what to do. It's a stay away to me. Because Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback? And they can be one and three? It's still Baltimore can rip off 10 wins in a row. I mean, they're decimated, though. They are. There's this imaginary point that you can pass during the NFL season with injuries, and it feels like they'd be either past it or they're really close. But on the other hand, Lamar and Josh are the two guys that you feel like they can win nine to ten in any situation. I guess we'll find out. Plus 185 seemed a little high considering the Baltimore injury stuff.

50:18Houston, AFC South, plus 650. They were minus 110 before the season. If they beat Baltimore this week, they'd be two and three. And if you're playing it out, like Jacksonville loses to KC on Monday night. Houston beats Baltimore. Indy, they're probably winning this week against the Raiders, but they'd be four and one. But at least the Texans would get to play them again. Plus 650 seemed high. You surprised by that? It's worth a little taste just because of that defense. But honest to God, I like getting the Colts even money. I think the Colts are legit. I think you're right because they should have won last week.

50:57They had two touchdowns that got called back. This is my favorite. And sadly, I can't do it because I have so much money in them already from June, July, August. But Denver plus 460 to win the AFC West. and the case would be you also have to expect them to beat Philadelphia this week. That would be the upset for week five to move to three and two. But there's some really good advanced metrics with them. They lost two games. They easily could have won and you could argue that they blew and their defense is good and I think they have a top five running game right now at least by the stats and there's the Bo Nix issue but plus 460 seemed high to me, House.

51:37Well, it's basically you're gambling on Bo Nix. That feels like the right amount of return on the risk of Bo Nix. Let's see him go on the road and beat a playoff team just once. So you're gambling on Bo Nix. You get to feel like Sean Payton because that's been the last two years of his life. He's like, oh, I'm Sean Payton right now. The Chargers losing all for definitely this week, maybe next week. and just how much pressure Herbert was under the last couple weeks, which they've talked about. All the articles are about that can't happen anymore. We can't have him being hit like that. But look, man, you only have so many hits before something bad happens with one of the hits.

52:21NFC North, Atlanta's plus 290. This would be more of a Tampa Bay losing this week and continuing to just have injuries kind of hedge. I thought that price is pretty good, 3-1. They're not playing this week. But more a little hedge against Tampa and some stuff that's happening. I'm not doing it. I'm just flagging it. Yeah, I already have a preseason on Atlanta just on the theory that, you know, Tampa wouldn't stay healthy the whole season. That was really it. In the preseason, I got it. You do a flyer on Atlanta, I feel like, every August. I don't know. I mean, 9-8 could win that division yet. Yeah.

53:01Well, here's my favorite. NFC West, Seattle's plus 360 still. The odds and the respect for them has just not been there all year. It wasn't there before the year. It's not there now. They're number one in DVOA house through four weeks. Yeah, so this game this week, them hosting Tampa, is speaking of referendum games. Let's see it. It's a good team, even though Tampa is beat up. They should hold serve at home. The line is fair. So if we see them handle their business against Tampa, if that defense is too late to plus 360, you got to basically gamble on them beating Tampa. I understand. I'm just saying you're the gamble is them making a leap over the ramps.

53:49And so we got Rams that are somebody's losing that game today. So somebody's going to three and two. And then the Cardinals who lost their second string running back and are down now down their third string running back and they're like 28 passing. you know, I think that feels like a possible crater. I like that plus 360. I think Seattle's good. Some conference odds. Buffalo's still plus 180. Casey's plus 460. Denver would be the long shot probably at 16 to 1. I think that's a pretty fair price of the talent. And then in the NFC, Philly plus 290. Detroit plus 440. Green Bay plus 480. Seattle 17 to 1.

54:27Is there any team you're interested in other than those seven from an odds standpoint? Kansas City at that price is remarkable to me. It feels like an autoplay, must play, go do it. What's that going to be if and when they take care of business against Jacksonville this weekend? Right. And they got Rice coming back week seven. And I agree with you. That's an amazing price. The plus 460 jumped out to me. Yeah. That could be plus 220 by Monday morning. Right. And then I still like the Seattle 17-1. I'm not saying they're going to make the Super Bowl, but I just think those odds are pretty good. The Rams, 6-1.

55:07I wanted to see a Rams number that made me go, oh. And I think the people have already bet it. It's already priced in. And then just from a long shot standpoint, there's really nothing. And I think at this point, I don't think we're going to see anybody over the 17-1 range. You know, even the Jags, which you say, oh, the Jags. Maybe throw, they're only 15 to one with the AFC. There's not even real value in that. And everybody else is too far. Houston, 27 to one. I wish I liked their team more. All right, let's, we're going to hit, we're going to do Ringer 107, but as always, we do the stay aways.

55:46So last week we went three and two in Ringer 107. And I really feel like we had a good week and the mistake was just not assuming something stupid was going to happen in the Sunday night game. Green Bay, Dallas. Everyone was on Green Bay. Everybody had them in teaser parlay. The favorites had been winning nonstop for four weeks. And I don't have regrets, but I guess that was the mistake. I still don't know how they give up 40 points to Dallas without C.D. Lamb. The mistake was us gambling on Carson fucking Wentz. That was the mistake on the Sunday boarding game. That's a mistake. That's what we did.

56:20It was a mistake. And you brought it up? you said this is just for the record a 9 30 et game that we're wagering on we shouldn't do this and i plowed ahead so we're staying away this time it's browns vikings browns plus three and a half i actually if this was a normal game i would probably want to bet the browns because i think their defense could just win this minnesota's offense they're 30 second in sacks 31st and qb hits that just suck in general. And then the Browns first and run fourth and pass first yards per play. They're second in DVOA. Like it feels like the defense might win it by himself.

56:59I'm excited for Dylan Gabriel. I thought Flacco looked terrible. Here's why you don't bet Cleveland. A rookie QB in his first start in a 930 overseas game. That is what I talked about when FanDuel sends you the automatic alert. You're trying to make the bet. And FanDuel's just like, hey, just so you know. And not only that, it's against a Brian Flores defense. It's also a defense that's going to blitz him half the time. Yeah. I mean, they are missing a couple linebackers. You could feel it last week with no Van Ginko. I think they're going to run. The Cleveland game plan, it's an under. I think it's the lowest total on the board.

57:35It's like in the 34.5 range or something. And this has all the makings of a 14-7 game or a 10-7 game. The under almost seems too easy. I don't think it seems too easy. Who's going to score? I don't know. And what are the circumstances? Well, for Minnesota, Carson Wentz overseas with a banged-up offensive line and a depleted Minnesota front seven in a 930 overseas game. That's also a Fandu alert. Stay away. So we're staying away. Chargers-Washington. Chargers minus two and a half at home. I wrote RATLINE in all caps. Oh, wow. Okay. The Chargers we were talking about as a Super Bowl contender a week ago.

58:14Your team doesn't have McLaurin. It's got Daniels playing with a knee brace. Yeah. To me, just to stay away. I don't know how long Herbert can stay healthy. But interestingly, Washington is fifth in DVOA and the Chargers are tenth. But what do you expect, Washington fan? I do think that Washington's defense is going to play better than they played against Atlanta on the road last week. Yeah. But the problem is it's too much uncertainty to try and make a wager on what the hell is going to happen here because, you know, Jaden Daniels in a knee brace. The receiver room continues to be, you know, a mess.

58:55And, you know, the defense has to come up with an identity. They have to be able to stop the run because that's how the Chargers are going to try and establish themselves. So it's a stay away. I'm rooting very hard. It's a good opportunity for Washington to go beat a good team on the road. So I do think the odds are decent. What do you think the Washington fan base in L.A. on Sunday? Oh, I think there's a big contingent. We know a bunch of them. Yeah. I think that's another case. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, that might be worth the half point. All right, we're staying away regardless. I don't know what to make of the Chargers with both of these tackles out.

59:32I just don't want to bet on their offense. Cowboys-Jets. Cowboys minus two and a half at the Jets. this is the sell high buy low game of the week. Yes. Where Cowboys looking great. Oh yeah. They can put the ball on anyone. And then, uh, the jets just couldn't have looked worse. And, uh, I will stay away. I was leaning jets for a second. And then that stat that keeps popping up about how fields is. Oh, and 25. When the other team scores 21 plus points, Dallas can score 21 plus points. So I, if this was say, if Dallas was favored by three, I'd be making a really passionate argument on the Jets. Three and a half would be a real conversation.

1:00:12Right. Yes, for sure. The two and a half is not enough. Dallas coming off of a Sunday night game where they played 70 minutes. The 60. And then every last second of the overtime. Yeah. And the splits for Dak outdoors versus indoors and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Did you see that stat when that happens? The team's like, oh, the underdog in the game is like 0-4 in the next week. Fields had a classic Monday night game where you're just completely out. You're like, this guy has no chance. This guy just cannot complete passes. And then he has the 45-yard fourth and one awesome run. You're like, Fields, whoa, maybe there's something here.

1:00:55I think that's just going to be his whole career. Then the other stay away is cards minus eight and a half at home against the Titans. I would make the case Arizona should not be favored by eight and a half over anyone in the league. Even their schedule, which was easy so far, Saints won by seven, Panthers won by five, lost to the Niners by one when the Niners were missing a bunch of guys, then lost to the Seahawks by three last week. And now they're on their third string running back, so I don't think they can protect leads. And yet I'm never taking the Titans. That Titans, their streak against the spread, what is it, three and 18?

1:01:29They're 3-18 since Tommy Boy Callahan has taken the helm there. So, you know, the only thing to do ever is to bet against the Titans on the line. But, I mean, we can't countenance the Cardinals by the end. Can we pay some respect to the 3-18 now? What an incredible record. Where have we been? That's my question. Where the hell have we been? They're playing these odds so that they conceivably will have action both ways. And they're 3-18. Here's the thing. They're really 2-19 because they get credit for the fact that the line moved a full point from the summer into the actual beginning of the game in that first game of the season against Denver.

1:02:15So they're getting credit for covering a spread because Denver won by 8 or whatever it was rather than 8-1⁄2. But that line was 7-7⁄2 all summer long. That's how it happened. Did you swipe your nose? I did. I did. Are you sick? I need a little hot water with a lemon. That's sick. I need a little. Don't knock it till you tried it. I could have used some. Yeah. Maybe you're having some right now. I was at Bethpage Black this weekend, and I'm a little hoarse from yelling all my FUs at Rory. You know, it didn't work. But here I am. You should be cheering for Rory. They had all of our favorite golfers.

1:02:55I'm making a joke. I obviously bet heavily on the Euros yeah you were cheering you were cheering for Rory and yelling your support to him and telling the fans to leave him alone I was saying F you New Yorkers my favorite was when you pretended you didn't bet on Europe you were doing this bit on Ringer Podcast you were like look I wouldn't necessarily bet this because I want us to win you repeatedly told me how many times you bet this I said that I bet it I just said that doesn't make me any less of a patriot here is a new category called getting three free points. And yet it's still a stay away.

1:03:33These games include the saints. Plus one and a half against the Giants. I don't know how they're not favored. They're home. They actually can move the ball. The Giants don't have neighbors. I don't know what's good about the Giants. Aaron Schatz had a thing. The Giants have the worst run defense by DVOA through four games since 1979. They've allowed 6.1 yards per carry. And guess what the Saints like to do? Run the ball and get first downs. Taysom Hill may be back. And yet, I'm not going near the Saints. I'm not. I can't, as you know, I don't like betting a two terrible teams game. Well, that's what this is.

1:04:14The problem is it keeps bouncing back and forth. The Saints right now are minus one and a half. Did that move again? Yes, it just keeps moving. So it's a definite stay away. Anything where those one and a halves flip, they've been losers so far this season. The Raiders was one and the Ravens were the other one so far this season, where the ones and one and a halves are flipping across the line. I think there's a scenario where the Saints actually kill the Giants. I don't disagree one bit. Maybe that's a bet. I don't disagree. All right. I just outed up house. Yeah. The Saints to win by 13 and a half is five to one.

1:04:50Saints minus 13 out of five to one. Saints minus 19 and a half, 10 to one. No. Can't do that. They're just blowing out the Giants. It's like a 30 to six. No. And Jackson Dart looks terrible kind of game. I don't know. I won't be putting any money on the normal spread. Colts Raiders. Colts minus six and a half. Colts cornerback situation in shambles. And it's a kitchen sink game for the Raiders. And they're getting three extra points. Well, I'm just saying that it says season's over if we lose this one game. So they're bringing all the stops. You don't think the season's over? Well, I do think the season's over.

1:05:32because I think the Raiders suck. You think it's already over? It's already over, and I'm not ready to just move past this game in terms of things we might consider for our card. Yeah, all right. Goddamn, I'll mark it. I wrote down in my notes, Gino, Smith, and Pete Carroll, the worst reunion since De Niro and Pacino in Righteous Kill. Did you ever see Righteous Kill? It's really bad. Not familiar with that one. It sucked because we get older, we forget stuff. I think it sucked me in three times on cable over the last 15 years. Like, ah, De Niro and Pacino, I'll give it a chance. And it's just horrible.

1:06:06I feel like there's some worse reunions than that. We can do better. Oh, how about this? Watch Righteous Kill and then decide whether I'm right. All right, I'll mark that down because apparently you are intrigued from a parlay standpoint, I'm guessing. Panthers-Dolphins. Panthers plus one and a half was the move. This is the official Cooper Bowl, right? It is the pooper bowl. Yes, sir. Is this the worst game we can have without Tyreek Hill? Let's think. What is the worst game? Well, Tennessee would have to be involved to have the worst game we can have. But yeah. Yeah, you're right. No Tyreek.

1:06:42Dolphins played Monday. Panthers coming off a blowout loss. And already the Bryce Young whispers are starting again. Watch out. Andy Dalton, just go Uber for the next few weeks. People are worried. Lions Bengals is the other one Lions minus 10 and a half at Cincinnati This is just way too high I just automatically if a home dog Is getting more than 10 points in our picks poll I'm just taking them It's at least 3 free Cincy points on paper They're coming off a horrible loss And Detroit's having a cornerback Crisis they're just running out of Cornerbacks completely and yet I'm not taking Cincy It's funny They're 2 and 2 it feels like they're minus one and five.

1:07:27Well, that's... Go ahead. No, I was just saying that's because we've seen two and a half games of Jake Browning and it feels like, you know, that's days of our lives that we can't get back. I have all the team Reddit pages bookmarked and I zoom through there on Thursday mornings as I have my coffee just to see what their fans are saying. Oh, no. By far, Cincy has the funniest Reddit page of all the team Reddit pages. Oh, congrats to Cincy. They win something. They had seven or eight different pictures of that photo of their offensive line blocking a three-man rush where the two guys are going around the tackles and four guys are blocking the guy in the middle.

1:08:10And the two guys are going around the tackles and they're about to sack the quarterback. And it's just all these different jokes about it. They're talking about, you know, boycotting the home game, doing chants. They're so fucking pissed that they had this Burrow-T-Higgins chase thing and then decided not to give them an offensive line, which anybody who was watching from afar is like, what are these guys doing? The Cincy fans are mad. And they have a cheap owner who doesn't really spend that much money. That's the thing. That's the thing that they have every right to be mad about. And the constant mismanagement, the institutional mismanagement of the franchise is appalling.

1:08:49It reminds me of what happened here in Washington. Although we never had anybody as good as Joe Burrow for the 20 plus years that the devil was the owner. The devil. Wow. Strong takes from Joe House. All right. We're going to take a break and then we're going to do Ringer 107 and try to figure out our picks. All right. Possibles for Ringer 107. Seahawks Bucks. Mentioned earlier Seahawks first in DVOA. This is a Darnold versus Baker. Nobody can get revenge for the Carolina situation because they were both miserable game. So Tampa's D is really banged up. Yeah. Missing a bunch of D-backs. You look at their injury report, just out questionable, questionable, didn't practice.

1:09:33This just seems like a bad spot for them. And again, that Seattle defense, six first to run, second yards per play, fourth in hits and hurries. Tampa had some trouble blocking for Baker. That Philly game was pretty fluky. They were way, way down. In Philly, they had the classic. They're wilting in the Tampa heat. Tampa coming. It was, you just kind of knew what was happening as it was happening in Philly holds on for the win. I really like the spot. I wish this was two and a half, but Seahawks minus three is one of my favorites. We have to play it. It's an autoplay on Seattle. The crazy thing is, have you ever seen a minus three at minus 124?

1:10:11Do you see how much you have to lay minus 124 on Fandle right now to get the minus three? But you know what? It's worth it. Um, Bucky Irving, have we heard the MRI results yet? Do we, I mean, he's did a walking another question bone. He's been awesome. He's awesome. If they don't have him, that's the bridge too far. Uh, and I don't have him. That should be like minus four and a half and maybe it'll move in that direction. So we're very lucky to get the minus three. I don't expect Bucky Irving to play. In fact, I've already benched him and in our guillotine league. Uh, cause I, you know, the, the deadline to create your roster is Wednesday night.

1:10:48And if you don't set it for wet by Wednesday night here, you're, you're, you're fucked until, you know, until anyway. Okay. Uh, a lot, a lot of jokes about our guillotine league. Um, Monday narrative alert. Are the Seahawks genuinely good? Could the Seahawks make the Superbowl? I just, I feel like this would be the game they're on the radar. No, no, no. I'm talking Monday. Not can they make the Super Bowl, but there will be. It's 11-10 on Monday on ESPN. Somebody will say it. There'll be respect. There'll be heightened respect for Seattle. All right. We're marking down Seahawks. That's a lock.

1:11:30Next one I marked down was Broncos plus four and a half at Philly. This line feels like it should be Philly by three. That would be fine. I would be totally fine if it was Philly by three. I know that we will continue to confer respect upon the Denver defense, except the Denver defense had a chance to close out the Chargers in L.A. with four minutes left in the game, and they let the Chargers drive twice. And the Chargers scored a touchdown and a game-winning field goal. And I just cannot in good conscience endorse betting on Bo Nix on the road. like go have a tremendous game and and and prove it and and like just jam it in my face jam it in my face bo nicks just take it put put it right in my face please don't cut this out as a video internet no please do please do begging you to put it in to stick it to me but i gotta see it i gotta see it one time one time from bo nicks i won't do it i mean jalen carter's banged up Philly's out of rhythm.

1:12:38Their offense is a disaster. Yeah, like there's all this stuff that says that's a good number. You should play that number because it should be about a field goal. But fuck that. Denver's ninth in DVOA, Philly's 12th. Philly's defense, 21st against the run. Denver's the first in sacks and hits, ninth against the pass. If they're for real, it starts this week. I asked Shil Kapati, our colleague, host of Philly special, knows the Eagles inside and out. Yeah. I was like, why isn't this line Eagles minus two and a half, Eagles minus three? He said, 18 straight wins when Hurts starts and finishes a game.

1:13:19Feels like they can't be less than a 3.5 favorite at home unless they play the Bills. Their defense played awesome last week. Looked like last year. Could put Knicks in a blender. Those are all great points. It's our guy, Sheil. Have to agree with Sheil Kapadia there. I'm still marking it. I'm not going to put it in bold. All right, all right. Texans-Ravens in Baltimore. Texans minus one and a half. No Lamar, we're guessing. And if it is a Lamar, it'll be a compromise. Not moving around that well, Lamar, which is not a Lamar I'm excited about. Defense decimated. I mean, it's comical how bad it's been so far.

1:13:57The year from hell is now lingering. And Houston's one and three. I do like their defense. Yes. There's a guy in their team that I have on two of my fantasy teams, Woody Marks. Oh, wow. Congratulations to you. Backup running back. I picked him up. He just played a couple of plays and it was one of those immediate like, whoa, who's that? Yes, yes. And they unleashed him a little bit last week. And I think he's a game changer for them. I agree with you. He makes dudes miss. And they went from having a running back situation that I absolutely hated to one that I feel pretty good about. I also think this could be a C.J.

1:14:36Stroud. Like C.J. Stroud in our guillotine league was on the waiver wire. And I was like, I'm just out of principle picking him up. I have Jake Browning on my team. But if he was ever going to have a big week, this is the week. Texans minus one and a half in Baltimore. What do you think? I really want to play the Texans. Okay. Like if you look at the losses, they lost by five to the Rams on the road in their opener. They had a Baker last second pull it out of his butt in week two at home. They had the game one. They had the game one. Baker had a, what was it, fourth and 10, fourth and 12? Right.

1:15:14Exactly right. And they were driving to tie the game against the Jaguars on the road at Jacksonville. CJ did throw a bad pick in that game. They clinched it for the Jags. But they aren't far away. They played three teams that I think will look back. and I think all three of the teams they lost to are playoff teams this year. And then they went and handled their business against Tennessee. I think you're right. The missing ingredient with that Houston offense has been a running back with any kind of burst. And remember last year when they had Mixon, it was a radically different offense. Like the splits between that offense with Joe Mixon versus without.

1:15:59So if Woody Marks is 75 % of Joe Mixon, but really what we're betting on here is Cooper Rush and that Houston defense against Cooper Rush. And they basically just had a week off. Well, that's one thing. And then how bad the Baltimore defense is. I mean, I don't understand why this line isn't Houston by three. This is like a name-only spread at this point. It might get there. They're missing as many guys as they are. It might get there. It's really crazy. Sports Illustrated five hours ago Woody Marks is quietly becoming NFL star thanks to touchdown surge starting to get some press we're going to mark down the Texans Patriots Bills

1:16:46Patriots plus eight and a half that was the line that we have to work with for Ringer 107 I'm just telling you I think they can hang in this game I've obviously watched every play of the Patriots I think they're going to be able to move the ball on that Buffalo defense and the backdoor cover is in play even if the Buffalo's up by 14 but I think the Pats I think they're pretty good I know they beat Carolina last week and Carolina stinks, I get it but they've been moving the ball multiple weeks like they moved the ball against Pittsburgh for the last three quarters of that game and I think May's I don't know, the Sunday night spot for them with Vrabel as the coach, kind of understanding what that means.

1:17:29This is a kitchen sink game for them. I thought they were intentionally a little bit vanilla last week. There's some wrinkles in there. There's Diggs coming back to Buffalo. And I don't think Buffalo's looked that good this season. The most exciting game they had all year was beating Baltimore. And then after week four, do we feel that great about lighting up Baltimore? I thought the Saints were hanging around with them in a really disturbing way last week. So the eight and a half just seems high to me. I don't know what the right line would be. Maybe seven, but eight and a half is a lot of points, and I think we should grab them.

1:18:02Yeah, I don't disagree. I'm not doing this because we're pals and because the Patriots are upstarts. No, you love to make fun of me when we take the pass. I have, you know, at the outset of this season, we have a bet that Washington is going to end up with two more wins than the Patriots over the course of the season. So it's not like I'm heavily invested in the Patriots. This is just a bet. Like, you know who agrees with you that the Patriots can move the ball and score? Vegas. This is the highest total on the board at 49.5, and there were 50s out there over the course of the week. It's just a point and a half too many points.

1:18:37And, you know, Buffalo can win by margin. We've seen it, but not against an offense like what the Patriots are able to bring to the table here. So I like the idea of, you know, the extra one and a half points. if I, you know, that were the way, that's the way I would handicap it. So I like, I like this. I do like the Patriots getting eight and a half. I don't think Buffalo has enough of a pass rush to force May to make some of the mistakes he's made. I think they've intentionally not had him use his legs that much because they're saving him for games like this. Not to compare him to Mahomes by any stretch, but those big games for the Chiefs when Mahomes actually uses his legs and has like the 10, 11 rushes.

1:19:18I think May, those plays are in there and they haven't. they've been intentionally holding him back. When he's moving around, he turns the corner as well as any quarterback, uh, of the, of the kind of 25 and under generation. Like he flies around that corner and takes these hard angles. And, uh, the pass rushers can't get him. There's a parlay here where we could take the pats up to 11 and a half on Fandle with the over of 37 and a half. If you wanted to, um, even get more points out of this. So I'm just flagging that one. as well. That would be our little parlay thing. If we want to do that, or we could just man up and take the pass straight up.

1:19:57And then the last one is Chiefs, Jags, in Jacksonville. Chiefs minus three. DVOA, advanced metrics, all around the same, except the Jags played the Panthers, the Bengals, the Texans, and the 49ers. And probably should have lost the Texans game, or had a chance to. And you could also say they could have beaten the Bengals and they could be 4-0 right now. I think my case here is I think Jacksonville is the good-bad team. I think they're just going to beat the other bad teams. I like this. I think this step is a step too high for them. Playing on a Monday night at home with a big crowd and the Chiefs really starting to figure out who they are and with a little more speed.

1:20:46and I just don't want to take Trevor Lawrence against Mahomes. Nor do I. Chiefs minus three seems like a nice fun one on Monday. Don't you think that gets to three and a half by Monday night? Probably. Yep, I'm comfortable with this. And it's already minus 118 right now, the three is. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it jump. All right, well, we only have four bets here. So what is your make your Colts case? It's really a Raiders case. We keep saying, you know, the game, the spot that the Raiders were supposed to show us that they were going to be competitive this year was at home against the fucking Bears after they went on the road and laid a giant egg against the Chargers on Monday night and then went to Washington and laid another egg.

1:21:31We said, oh, OK, well, let's let this is a get right spot for the Raiders. They're going to come home and, you know, they'll move the ball. They move the ball at will against that Bears defense. They ran the ball up and down. It was the first Ashton Gentry good game. You know what else they did? They put the effing ball in the other hands teams five times when they were on their side, the Bears' side of the 50. Five times they did it. Who is that? That's righteous kill. Denier and Pacino. It's Geno and Pete Carroll. An unholy reunion. Worst reunions ever. why what if we if we think this colts thing is legit at all what why are we afraid of the idea gino has thrown into and i i haven't had a chance to sit down and do any of like the real deep pff you know but deeper than turnover worthy like you know where you go into the windows that he's throwing into but it's as though he doesn't see defenders he's not colorblind he's linebacker blind because he keeps seeing things that aren't there.

1:22:38And can I give you the Bill Simmons DBOA for Gino? Let's hear it. Sucky, sucky. Not just the seven interceptions, but Salem passes. I thought that Monday night game against the Chargers, the Chargers were dying to let them back in that game. Remember? And he was just missing wide open guys. He really just looks like he's not himself. I mean, so are you thinking parlay for this potentially? I don't know. We haven't, we came up with four bets thus far that don't have anything exotic about them, right? They're all sides that we like. Right. So would you go over with this? What about a Moneyline Parlay of...

1:23:17Would they over? Well, I don't know. Oh, we have to, we can't Moneyline Parlay with another team? No. Okay. Oh, no, we could. We definitely could. Why, what team are you thinking? Well, it would be the Rams, my favorite play of the week. I have so much money. The Rams is happening four hours from now. We can't do that. It'll be hilarious when people hear this and somehow San Francisco beat the Rams because that is by far my favorite bet. I can promise you that's not going to happen.

1:23:52What about, what's a number for alternate total points that would get your attention? Alternate total points. 41 and a half? Like an over for that? See, my problem is... 42 and a half. I don't want to mess with that. 43 points. See, I don't want to mess with the total because what if the Raiders only score 14 points? With the Colts cornerback situation, the Colts had a guy who played, I think most of the game, Xavier Howard, last week. He retired. He deserved to retire. He had a starting quarterback retired. And guess what? That's a bleak situation. He made the right call. It was a good decision by him.

1:24:35The only reason I noticed that was he was the guy running after the guy who was wide open four times a game in the Colts game. So I think it was a good move. Here's what I'm going to propose. Let me see if it works out. By the way, this game's in Indianapolis. I know. I'm aware. Like the Raiders are going to go on the road. This feels fair to me. I know, but this is, I said this to Sal on Sunday night, though. This is the fear with the Raiders. Yeah. is Gino isn't really comfortable until he's a big dog ready to mess up some teases and parlays for people. Okay. That's when he feels the most comfortable.

1:25:10He doesn't want to be a favorite. Well, that's why I'm suggesting all we do is play the Colts on the money line. Let me see if I can get you to agree to the Colts and the Eagles together. That's minus 107. That's a money line parlay. It's square. I'm acknowledging that it's square, but I'll take it. I already told Bo Nix to stick it in my face. And then it would be Gino going on the road and beating Daniel Jones, which sounds hilarious, except he's been really good. Colts, Eagles, minus 107? Yeah. We don't have to do it. And I don't... Well, you... Listen, we do Ringer 107. I get two picks, we share two picks, and then you get your own pick.

1:25:53You could just make this your own pick. Okay, this is my pick. I'm willing to live with it. I'll take all the ridicule. I'm willing to live with it. I'm sure that it's square. Okay. I don't care. I don't care. Let Bo Nix go beat the Eagles. I'm willing to live with it. Let Bo Nix go beat the Eagles and let Geno go into Indianapolis and beat Indiana Jones. All right. Today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel, who also sponsors our Ringer Sunday pregame show. Yeah. You can watch houses on that one. It's on our YouTube channel. We come on at 11, 1130. What are we coming on during these weird Sunday early games?

1:26:34We're 1130. It's just the game is on. It hasn't changed. Why would it change? Get all the bets. You, Sal, Dibundo, JJ, Raheem, the whole crew's there. A lot of great bets. So anyway, and they'll be talking to Ringer 107 on there. We're 8-12 for the season. Had some bad luck. I only feel really shitty about two of those picks. picks. And I feel like we got hosed on a couple. I'm fine. I'm not panicking. I'm not nervous. I think we have a good feel for the slate. Ringer 107, first one, Seahawks minus three at home against the banged up Bucks. House and I are both a little more bullish on the Seahawks than maybe the Lions are reflecting.

1:27:10Still plus 360 to win their division. And I don't know. I like this team. I think this line probably moves up, right, House, to three and a half maybe by Sunday. Wouldn't surprise me one bit. It's already, the juice is there. We're grabbing at three, and if Baker Mayfield beats us, Godspeed. It's happened before. I tip my hat to that man. He's a legend. Texans at Baltimore. Texans minus one and a half. And this is a bet against Cooper Rush, and it's a bet against if Cooper Rush doesn't play because banged up Lamar is playing. It's a bet against banged up. Can't really use his legs, Lamar. And it's a bet against a Baltimore defense that has been absolutely annihilated and has given up 133 points.

1:27:53This feels like a get-right spot for the Texans. And you love their defense. I do, and I think there's plenty to support loving their defense. Did that guy get suspended that they have who does a cheap shot every Alshair? I don't think so. He didn't get suspended for that, right? I don't think so, but he does get suspended every year, so it's only a matter of time. Yeah, I hope he won't get suspended in this game. All right. Chiefs minus three on Monday night against the Jaguars. I made the case to you that I thought the Jags were the good, bad team and you liked it. We're rolling with my homie.

1:28:25This is easy. This is not, we're not going to, this is it. By the way, I said Josh Allen was the best QB in the league. My homes could take it back in three weeks. Who knows? Six 50 plus six 50 for, for MVP. That's a good price. Patriots plus eight and a half in Buffalo on a Sunday night in the biggest game of Drake Mays career by far. The first big Mike Vrabel Patriots game, a Patriots team that I feel like has been keeping stuff in their back pocket for this game the last couple weeks. And a Buffalo team that just has not looked that inspiring. And the Saints were moving the ball on them. They have a lot of injuries on defense.

1:29:06You can run the ball on them. On the flip side, they're going to score. They're going to score. For the Pats to hang with this eight and a half, they're going to have to put up points. they're going to have to maybe even get a backdoor cover, but I think they can hang around, hang around, hang around. I also love the over in this game. I just think there's going to be a lot of points. This to me feels like a 33 to 27, 36 to 30, like in that range. You agree with that? Oh, that's fine. Yes, that's all fine. Those are all winners for us. All right, so I had two of those picks. We shared two of them, and then House got his own pick because that's how we do it in Ringer 107.

1:29:43and you like the Indianapolis money line at home against the flailing, the failing Las Vegas Raiders, parlayed with the Eagles money line against Denver. I actually like Denver plus four and a half. You, Shio Kapadia made the case. They don't lose when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes games. They've won 18 straight. Defense looked a lot better last week until the Heat kind of did them in. Colts, Eagles money line parlay minus 107 make the case. Yeah, I just, this is a last opportunity to go against Geno, it feels like. We're not going to get lines of less than a touchdown. Where's he going? When they play good teams.

1:30:23I don't know. To the eye doctor, because he's linebacker blind. Maybe that's what it is. When my eyesight changed when I turned 44 and my eyesight got better, my contacts, I thought I had like a brain tumor, and it was just my contacts were too strong. Maybe Gino needs to get his eyesight checked. Yes. And the Eagles portion of this is just, show me, Bo Nix. Show me one time. Well, you were a lot more explicit before. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel. Odds subject to change. Have you done any NBA homework? I haven't really started yet. I know it's coming. It's October. Today's October the 2nd.

1:31:02It's coming faster than you realize. We're like two and a half weeks away. Right. I'll be ready. Don't worry. We had Golden State sign Kaminga. I have to tell you. The Horford thing. I did bet the Celtics are like 42 and a half or 43 and a half. I thought they were 41. Whatever it is, I bet the over. I bet it last week. I'm just telling you right now. You're going to be happy. I think that's a crazy number for the East. All of a sudden, all of these trash teams in the East are going to win 45 to low 50 games. Get out of here. The Celtics are going to be a 500 team. They're going to be better than that just because they get to play in the East.

1:31:44They're 41 and a half right now in FanDuel. I'm telling you, I bet it. That's the only NBA bet that I can think of off the top of my head right now. I've been making the case that just the system they have and all the threes they're going to shoot and how fast they're going to play. There was only one thing from the Tatum injury that I'm not even using the word a positive. I'm just saying that will change their style in a potentially positive way. Is Tatum, as you know, he used to drive me crazy, would walk the ball up, walk the ball up, start the shot clock late. They're going to fucking run a gun now.

1:32:20They are going to push the pace, shoot threes, run off made baskets. They're going to shoot 50, 55 threes a game. and I think they're going to be weird to play. I think teams are going to be like, oh, shit, now we have to play this track meet team. And then they'll change the style when Tatum comes back, if he comes back this year.

1:32:44I was all, I don't want to do the over-unders because we're in a couple of weeks, but I just want to mention the Hawks is up to over 47 and a half. That's what I mean. That's just crazy. Okay. Like I love the Hawks. 47 and a half. We've been enthusiastic about the Hawks, but respectfully, get the fuck out of here. Like, it's like... 28-34 is like a real record. Yeah, that's for a real team. I kind of like... We like what they did in the offseason, but holy cow. What did you think of Michael Pina making the case that Wemby at 12-1 for MVP has to at least be... Or he not made the case, but brought it up.

1:33:24I mean, fine. That the Wemby-Kaiser-Sozay season could be... I'm going to put 50 bucks on it. Every year that he's... I bet him to win the MVP last year at some crazy number. I'm going to bet Wemby to win the MVP every year that he's in the league. It's like something small. Just like a layaway plan. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly. Yeah, I don't mind that. It's fine. My favorite... So I'm trying to... Like the preseason, like reading all the stories. I can't get enough of the Philly coverage. We had actually a good piece on the Ringer this week about them. This Maury now doing the we wanted to have more youth on the team and blah, blah, blah.

1:33:59It's like, oh yeah, that's why you have Joel Embiid and Paul George. All like the spin. But that is, I think, I've used this analogy a couple of times. I think that is the ceiling for most floors between the ceiling and the floor team. Okay. You could tell me 20 wins. You could tell me like 52. Oh, guess what? I tried 50 last year. Yeah, you lost. I'm not going to tell you what hole it went into on my orifices, but it still hurts. Still hurts. I still haven't recovered. They're 42 and a half. Sure. Whatever. Anyone who bets that just has a gambling problem. That's right. Just flat out, I have an issue.

1:34:47That's like when Sal's betting on the Singapore Open when there's no football. Or whatever this, like, you know, German league soccer. I think he does that sometimes. Tennis. He definitely 100 % does that sometimes. You're wizards, by the way. 21 and a half for the over-under. I kind of like the over. It's right at the number. Like 22, okay. 21, okay. Like, that's a fair. Both of those are fair numbers. I don't know. They're just going to have to keep trading veterans that might even show any sign of helping them or not. Well, you know what? You missed this, by the way. you and Zach missed this.

1:35:23The obvious answer for Houston is CJ McCollum. He's sitting right there. He's extremely available and he would go there and immediately, I might even argue that he is, he's at least an equal to Fred Van Vliet. I don't know if he's an upgrade, but he's at least treading water competency wise you know offensive acumen wise leadership wise CJ McCollum and KD that's pretty fucking good didn't they beef once about CJ didn't didn't he they had a podcast like seven years ago and they talked about how they could have beaten the title and Kevin Durant was like you mean over the Warriors like remember that moment there's something funny that happened with them you're right Wait, so CJ McCollum, who's on the Washington Wizards somehow.

1:36:17I can't believe you have him on your team. That's so weird. For at least five minutes, he's on our team. So you're saying Van Vliet makes$24 million a year and CJ makes$30 million. That's tough to trade Van Vliet. He's like the leader of the team, though. I guess he's out for the year. He's not going to play. They need players. They're trying to win. They're the top five of winning the NBA title. They're in the top three of winning the Western Conference without Van Fleet. They trade him there in like January and then like Washington waves him maybe. Maybe he's got one of those deals where he can, I don't know.

1:36:54Whatever it takes. Clear option for a year or two. Anything is possible in the NBA. Just ask Kawhi. What's cold? It's cold to just the guy trades his ACL and it's like, hey, bad news. We've traded you to Washington. You'll finish your rehab there. I mean, that's it. What do you think? I mean, how about Isaiah Thomas? Do you think Isaiah Thomas with the Celtics did to him? Well, that was cold. I didn't feel good about the Isaiah Thomas thing. Any other NBA storylines you're excited about? I'm a little bit. Nothing yet. I want to pour some settled-down juice on the Golden State Warriors situation.

1:37:31Oh, which part? Well, the news this week that they took care of Kaminga and they got the Al Horford deal done, and now they're really excited. They're looking, they think they're in that upper echelon. They think that they're among the, they think that if they had that team that went 24 and seven down the stretch, you know, that's the, that's the identity. Okay. All right. Let's see. But we'll, I'm count me mildly skeptical. 45 and a half over for them. Perfect number. 45 and a half is a perfect number for them. I think my favorite so far, I don't want to step on the pod. Charlotte 26 and a half I've been staring at.

1:38:15Which way are you going to play it? Over. Wow. Let me hear why. I think they're going to be really fun for the first two months of the season. I don't know. I like the guys on their team. Remember last year we really liked Brooklyn before the year as a like, eh, that team's not bad. Like they have professional basketball players and then we were right and then they immediately and frantically had to trade a lot of those guys to get them off the team. They hit the over. We did. They did hit the over. I think Charlotte, first of all, they're going to be too competent to potentially... They don't really have anyone to trade.

1:38:57They have young guys. This is Kniepel. This is you, your boy. I understand what's going on here. This is Brandon Miller, year three, coming back. This is Miles Bridges. This is Grant Williams that will eventually come back. This is Lomelo trying to play 60 games. I don't know. I think they have some talent. They do have talent. Because the difference with them versus your team is you're going to be trying to get rid of guys that can help you. Charlotte can't do that. And I don't even think they'd mind if they were good. Who's their starting center? I can't pull it off. They traded every center.

1:39:32They traded all their centers. Listen, that's where it becomes an issue. I'll give you their team. Hold on. It's looking like it might be a Plumlee.

1:39:51Sure. That's phenomenal. God bless them. There's a Plumlee involved. Liam McNeely's on this team. Congratulations to him. Spencer Dinwiddie's on this team. Kyle Kuzma's favorite. but didn't shitty. One of the Martin twins is on here, Josh Green. I wish him the best of luck. If you always trade for a center. A 27, I'll bet. Okay, I don't mind a 27. Well, here's the thing. This is why I bring it up. I think one of these East teams will be, just because there's so many bad East teams, one of these teams will be like, all right, fine, we'll be the one that wins 32 games and goes 32 and 50. I would say they're a candidate.

1:40:33Is there any information out there about whether or not Malik Beasley is going to be allowed to play basketball in the NBA this coming season? Not a lot. Not a lot of information. And Detroit can't re-sign them? They don't have the cap room anymore? I think they can re-sign them, and they do have the cap room. Oh, okay. Well, that's just so that this is... It's weird. They close the investigation, and then the investigation doesn't seem like it's totally over. Well, because the NBA is conducting its own investigation after the district attorney's office cleared him. So I'm excited to hear what the NBA comes up with that the district attorney's office didn't find.

1:41:12I think the NBA is way more interested in figuring out this Clippers thing so it doesn't linger around the next four months of the season and affect the All-Star game and all that shit. How did you feel about Nikoli Jovic signing a four-year rookie extension with the Heat for$62.4 million? Do you think that would be in our worst contracts draft with Big Waz in early March? I mean, it's an amazing job by him and his agent. The Heat, what are we going to do with the Heat? I don't have an opinion on Jovic. I mean, what is there? Can I give you some Jovic stats? He's played 107 of a possible 246 games.

1:41:56I mean, how can you have an opinion on him? Go ahead. He averaged a career-high 10.7 points last year. I just thought when we, now that we're into the second apron era, I thought teams would start to be way more careful about these guys that aren't impact guys. Even the Kaminga thing, I don't feel great about for the Warriors. That's just a placeholder. $24 million? I get it. That's the trade. That's the perfect trade contract. Who's trading for that? What team, would you want your team to trade for Kaminga for$24 million? They need to pay him again? there will be a competitive team out there that sees that they have to do the audition that they've to date refused to do.

1:42:39There's only one team dumb enough and they are also in California and they play in the state capital of Sacramento. Oh, wow. It's the only team dumb enough to talk themselves into 120 million for four years for Kuminga. What makes sense to me, and I'm not kidding, is the Clippers. I think the Clippers, Kuminga could work for the Clippers. I really do think that with what they have and that they have parts of... After Kawhi's ban from the NBA? Whatever happens ultimately with Kawhi. The Heat are interesting at 37 and a half. They feel like they have a move. That's a place Kaminga can land. Well, this is...

1:43:17Don't they have... They don't have their pick this year. That's the other thing is these picks are so complicated with who has whose pick. you know like San Antonio has they can swap with Atlanta but now Atlanta's good so this that pick that they had that they thought was going to be awesome they don't have it we said we weren't going to do it we're too far down the rabbit hole we're talking about pick swaps between the Spurs and the Hawks we should stop the Clippers we should stop the Clippers could either send their first to Philly or OKC they don't get to keep it, but they're going to be good.

1:43:59I don't know. There's a million things. You're right. We should stop. House, I hope we do well on Ringer 107. You and me both. I'm knocking on wood. And I hope the Rams win tonight in the future. And I hope the Red Sox win tonight against my most hated team, the New York Yankees. Respectfully, I am rooting for the Red Sox because I can't, under any circumstances, root for the Yankees ever. Thanks, House. Yeah, my pleasure. Good job by you as always. Thank you. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Henshin House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gajau as well. Don't forget new Prestige TV podcast coming this weekend on Sunday.

1:44:31New Rewatchables coming on Monday. Enjoy the weekend. Have a great time. Keep a smile on your face. I'll see you Sunday. Cousin Sal will be going live on YouTube this Sunday, by the way. So live YouTube Sunday, me and Sal. See you then.

1:44:56You live with them.

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