OKC’s Better, Jokic Isn’t Real, a Clippers Swoon, and Detroit’s Rise With Tim Legler, Plus Week 11 Picks With Joe House and Billy Gil

17:55Tim Legler:And he's right back in the lane or catching two to three. Did one of those on a trail three last night. So like their space that they have offensively for so many possessions in the game, it helps young players find their confidence and rhythm rather than have to like kind of slug it out in a half court setting all the time where maybe some of your weaknesses can be exposed right now like they always have numbers and that really

18:17Bill Simmons:helps him it's when you think about so they won 68 last year they're over under heading into the season which was one of my locks was 63 yeah and the regular season record fando has them 13 to 1 to break the regular season record and three to one and win 70. I think the case for them to win 70, on top of the fact that it's only two more than they won last year, is they could lose any guy in their lineup, but I think they'd be fine for a couple of weeks, right? Even like Shea, who is a historically great guard having another awesome year. I feel like if he was gone for three weeks, they'd be able to patch it together with a lot of offense and with their defense probably be okay.

19:01Bill Simmons:Whereas like if Denver lost Jokic, which now we're having a different conversation. The defensive stats with them, I know it's early. These are all small sample size stuff. But per 100 possessions, 103.4 is the rating. And the next team is 109.4, Denver. To be six points lower than everybody else defensively, that's like a whole other level. And as you said, they really should be undefeated. So, yeah, they are still the favorites. They're the betting favorites. I don't really see scenarios where they're not going to be hosting the Western Finals. And what's crazy is they have the Clippers pick, the team I saw last night that I think is three and eight or three and nine in a generational draft with at least three franchise guys and then three other guys that everybody thinks that another year would have been number one pick.

19:54Bill Simmons:And they're just sitting there with this pick and they might have struck gold yet again.

19:58Tim Legler:Yeah. And, you know, so I guess it was, to the games last night. Tonight, apparently, I guess Sam Presti was being honored going into the Oklahoma Hall of Honor. And I made a joke on the air last night. I said, man, you got to win a championship to get in? Like, I would have thought that guy would have already been in there. Like, they really, they really hold in a high standard in the Oklahoma Hall of Honor. The Kalei trade should have been in there after that. That's what I'm saying. But, so, we were just talking about him a little bit on the air and just like, he, and he, you know, some guys say things as people that run teams and make personal decisions and, and, and, And it sounds cliche-ish.

20:32Tim Legler:When he says, like, they made a commitment to draft character and draft people, and obviously that doesn't mean you're going to, you know, forego talent, but you want both. It really is incredible how much it's reminding me of what happened in San Antonio. Because you had three guys, elite talents, but more importantly, great teammates, workers, selfless, didn't care about the limelight, not an ounce of diva in them, extremely coachable, wanted to be coached, in fact, allowed their head coach to get into them when they needed it. And now you look at this situation with Shea and Jalen Williams and Chet Hongren, they got their three, and they're all great dudes.

21:20Tim Legler:They legitimately buy into each other. They buy into accountability for one another. So it really is so - It's gross. Stop praising them.

21:28Bill Simmons:It's me. I'm going to throw up.

21:30Tim Legler:I might be stuck with this for 10 more years. I know. And people, it's so funny too, because people like they want to just attack you on social media. If you're like praising a team and I'm just like, what do you want me to say, man? Like, like they are like, first of all, also I want to say this. Like as a, as a, as I'm a broadcaster, I'm also a fan of a game of basketball. They, the way they play, I'm a fan of the style. I'm a fan of the way that they play the game. It's fun for me to sit down and watch them. And then, you know, they just happen to do it at such a high level that, and I agree with you, by the way, like as far as missing guys or guys, they're already proving that right now with who they're missing.

22:08Tim Legler:They can have guys go down. No biggie, man, because their defense will carry the day. Every night. We were joking at halftime. This game got out of control. We're going, okay, at what point do these two teams like empty their benches? And I'm like, I don't know, man, not too early for the Lakers because the OKC guys that you put out there on that second five play every bit as hard. They're going to get into you defensively. This thing could go from 25 to 45, 50 if you don't keep some guys on the floor that can handle the ball for the Lakers. Wow.

22:42Bill Simmons:When was the last time we said that? Yeah. Crazy. I think it's one thing to win a title, right? I think anybody can win a title once if you have good players, you have some luck, you have some health, you have one great star. I feel like they've actually changed the league a little bit. And Indiana gets a little bit of credit for this too, with how hard they play, picking up full court, some of the stuff they're doing defensively that's just different. And I think, again, Indiana was the other team that was really trying to pick up 94 feet. The last time you were on, we were talking about just some of the trends that we're seeing early and how some teams are just trying to pick up the pace.

23:20Bill Simmons:But it all stems from them, and they do it by far the best. and they can affect whatever they want. They're like, you know what? The pace of this is too slow. Let's ratchet it up. And they can just do it, right? And then on top of it, they have this generational guard

23:39Bill Simmons:who feels like he's getting better and his stats are the same. I don't even really understand it. It just feels like he's 3 % more comfortable every two months as a scorer. I feel like at the end of the game, he's going to get any shot he wants. and you came in what year did you come in the league? 90. What year did you leave? 2000. Alright, so you went prime Jordan, early Kobe, but Kobe wasn't Kobe yet but then you were in media.

24:09Tim Legler:Yeah, exactly. To me, Shea is on that level, right? I was in like 10 years and Jordan won six championships, so I'm like, thanks man.

24:18Bill Simmons:Thanks for that MJ. Thanks for the chance, yeah. But I think, Shea, when you start putting together year after year of this, you have to enter that conversation now. And I'm not saying he's better than those guys, but I'm just saying if you're making a list of the best guards of the last however many years, I just think he has to be on there now.

24:39Tim Legler:He has developed, first of all, to your point, what he's doing right now is so casual and easy. Yeah, that's the thing. It's so easy. What he's doing right now. He had a 30-10 game last night, 30-10, basically through three quarters. And it was so easy and casual because he has the ability to get his favorite shot whenever he wants it pretty much. It's very rare that someone can stop that step back middie. or he's making the step back three now too, but it's really that shot from 12 to 20 feet. That's the shot that he gets and primarily going left. And he gets it whenever he wants because he uses your own leverage and determination to stop his penetration against you.

25:36Tim Legler:And he stops so quickly and so abruptly that it's almost impossible to time that up. every now and then I'll see a guy do it really well, or sometimes we'll go to the step back and a guy has timed it so well and anticipated with length. You got to have length that their arm is up. And now he kind of he'll stop and he's maybe trying to get the bump. Doesn't get that where he has to swing it and then go get it back. But I'm telling you that happens like only a couple of times a game when he wants it, he gets it even against the elite guys. And so now he's in this place where you have to sell out to stop him.

26:12Tim Legler:And that is when now they start raining some threes on you because they're not a really super high volume three point shooting team either. But when they start stringing threes together, that is when they look to me like there's no team in this league that can beat this guy. These guys four times in a seven game series when they're making threes. So that's a decision you have to make as a coach. Sell out to him a little bit more. Force the ball out of his hands. and then these guys are so smart playing four on three that they will find the open guy and they've got slashers they got lob threats with their bigs they've got guys that can shoot wing and corner threes they make the right decision they'll turn it over someone takes a shot now if you get them on an off shooting night and you took it out of she's hands you got a chance but it's rare that anybody's able to pull all of that off you've got to have the scheme and the personnel and the want to.

27:04Tim Legler:That's a lot to ask against a guy as good as Shea Gilgis Alexander.

27:09Bill Simmons:The footwork, you know, like if you go back and you watch like the old Bobby Orr tapes from 50 years ago and just watch him skate and he's just skating differently than everybody else. He's just faster and more coordinated. And it's like, wow, that guy's just different. And then Connor McDavid now is the same thing. There's all these fast dudes in the NHL and just something about how he moves is just different. And we've seen, usually we talk about big guys with footwork, right? It's like McHale and Hakeem and Tim Duncan. And I think with Shea, I don't want to do the thing where it's like, we don't give Shea credit enough.

27:43Bill Simmons:I'm not saying that. It's just, you don't think of the footwork when you think about him because of all the other stuff he's doing. But what you said before about how he just stops, that's like his cheat code, his ability to just completely stop his body and then go in a different direction as he's using somebody's leverage against him. I don't know how you stop it. I don't really know what the answer is defensively. You have to guess.

28:06Tim Legler:And what I do see when guys try to guess and they're not fully committed to retreat mode and they're more upright because they're trying to time that up, that's when he ends up blowing right by you and he's at the rim or he's throwing a pocket pass or a lob to Holmgren or Isaiah Hardenstein. Or if that big, you play it perfectly underneath the basket on the second line. Perfectly. Big comes over to help so he can't get to the rim. Opposite wing defender drops down and chips on the big so there's no lob to it. Well then he throws the pass now over to the right wing which is the open area of the floor if he drives down the left side of the lane.

28:47Tim Legler:Or he'll throw it back to the left corner. He'll make that play I call it the late find. He makes the late fine now really, really well when his option is exhausted for himself. But more often than not, he's at the rim with something soft up on the glass. And if you are in full commitment to try to get back and cut him off because you're so worried about the blow by, that's when he stops. And then he basically sidesteps or backsteps. It's about, by my guess, six to seven feet. And he's 6 '6". It's not like he's 5 '11 doing this, where you can maybe you have a chance to get back he's 6 '6 as it is so that but the the the quickness with which that right foot hits the ground and then he is off the ground after he has stepped back that amount of time is just so tight to pull all of that off perfectly it it requires like a special effort on that possession and then guess what by the way if you do that i got news for you the next time down the floor he's going to do it again and you won't be as good at that stopping him.

29:52Tim Legler:Because he's just going to keep coming at you.

29:54Bill Simmons:On TV, it doesn't do it justice. I hate to do the you got to see it in person thing, but it's one of those things you see it in person and you're just like, I don't understand how anyone would stop that. Now, I guess you would probably use somebody taller, maybe three, four inches, or like a 6 '9 guy with longer arms. Maybe. That would be the ideal. How many guys are there like that? Tatum did an okay job against him.

30:18Tim Legler:You basically just described like, you know, well, if we could just put Scottie Pippen on him, like, you know, we would have a chance. Because that's what you're talking about. 6 '8", 6 '9", and Scottie might even have been longer than that with incredible reach and then just a whole lot of, like, defensive instincts to want to time it up and play a guy like that. He wears you down, man. Their whole team wears you down. And by the way, I want to say, obviously, last night, you know, Lakers came in feeling pretty good, hot, offensively clicking. and they didn't have LeBron James. Let's just be very clear about that.

30:52Tim Legler:You still have LeBron James sitting over there, which is going to affect the force with which you can play against OKC. It's going to affect your points in the paint that you need, your paint touches that you need to make your offense go, all of that stuff. So this isn't the best version of the Lakers, but it was a team coming in that was somewhat rolling offensively with two, with, you know, a superstar off to one of the best scoring starts in the history of this league in Luka, and then another guy who's turned himself into a star player in his own right in Austin Reeves. And neither guy had any success going where they wanted to on the floor last night.

31:31Bill Simmons:Plus, it was a happy week for them because we finally have a verdict. It seems like they might have won the Luka Doncic trade. Yeah. I think it's finally, we can finally come up with the winner. It took nine months.

31:43Tim Legler:Hey, can I just say, I didn't need... Nine months. You did nine months? I didn't need to deliberate for nine months. If I was on that jury, okay, I'm literally handing in the verdict within minutes after I heard the news.

32:00Bill Simmons:I think if I was a Dallas fan, I'd be more mad that we didn't get Reeves in the trade than about the actual trade. I'd be like, it's one thing how stupid it was to trade him, but why didn't we get Reeves? I would just go to bed at night. That would be like one of the three final things I thought about before I fell asleep. We get to take a break. And then I want to come back because we didn't talk about Jokic yet. We just did like 25 minutes on OKC. Take one break here. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel is putting you in control right from tip off. That's right. You get to choose your reward.

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33:07Bill Simmons:See terms at sportsbook.fandor.com. Game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER. visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, coming back. Somehow this isn't the number one story we're talking about. I went to a Clippers-Nuggets game last night. I don't know what was going on with Jokic because you could see it from the beginning. I don't know whether he was mad about the playoff series from last year, if Zubac texted him something joking that he took personally, if he heard something in the second row that made him mad, but he was in playoff mode. Um, and pretty early in the game, it became clear the Clippers had this strategy of is I call it the 2005 Spurs against Steve Nash strategy of like, you love to pass.

33:55Bill Simmons:So we're going to take your passes away and you're going to have to score to beat us. And Jokic was like, this is really what you guys are doing. And just torch them in 25 in the first quarter. He had 52 after three and it was every kind of shot. And I'm just trying to think what's different about him this year, just from what I saw, just being at the game, it feels like he's making the decision to score like a, like a infantile, infinitesimal split second faster versus like, I have the ball I'm going to think about. And now I'm going to make my move this time. He's just like, I'm scoring. He has all these different shots.

34:32Bill Simmons:He's in great shape. And, uh, he was just unbelievable. And the crowd was like gasping. When he got into the 40s and he started, you know, in the crowd, when the crowd starts making that noise, like, we can't stop. Oh, no. Oh, my God. What do we do? It was just a lot of gasping. And he just murdered them. And they really needed the game. What's different about him? He's shooting 68%. He's on pace to be our first 60-40-80 guy. He leads the league in NBA in rebounds and assists. He's six in points. He's taking three shots less a game and he's still averaging a 29, 13 and 11. And he has a 21 net rating plus.

35:19Bill Simmons:So in other words, typical Yoko Jir, but slightly better. But what are you seeing anything that's different?

35:24Tim Legler:Yeah, for sure. So what is it? Here's what it is. He absolutely 100 % is fresher. And their acquisition of Valanchunas is one of the real underrated signings in this league. because when he would go out of the game before, think about the backup centers that he's played with since he's been there, right, over the last five, six years. So when he would go to the bench, like they felt so inadequate offensively and everything they were going to do, it just, it's a presence and on the glass that he rarely would sit as long as he's sitting now with his second sub in the second half. So basically from the start of the fourth quarter, he would usually get about three minutes and he's back in the game because he had to be back in the game because now the game's on the line.

36:12Tim Legler:You got nine minutes to go win this game and you only have so many of those nights that you're going to be able to be in that position to go win the game right now in a one possession game. Now, this is two games in a row. I just watched every second of their last two games. He sat the first six plus minutes of the fourth quarter. And it's also in the first half. His minutes are down to 33 minutes a game. They have gotten more depth. They've got more spacing around him. He feels better. I think he's invigorated by the fact that they're back in the mix. Even though they took Oklahoma City to seven games a year ago, I don't think anybody really viewed Denver all year as a contender to actually win the title.

36:53Tim Legler:I know they gave them a hell of a series. This team, with what they did in the offseason, this feels like, you know what? It wasn't just a one championship run with the Denver Nuggets, which a lot of people thought was going to be more than that when they first won their title. I did. I thought that's not a one championship group. But then you started to think after last year, like maybe it was. They completely hit the reset button with their depth. Their bench was not good enough last year. It is now. It takes a lot of pressure off his shoulders. As a result, he's fresher. I agree with you. Because he's fresher, he's processing his own scoring opportunities in an aggressive manner that's quicker and more decisive than when he's a little bit fatigued and he immediately goes into looking around in that dribble handoff game.

37:40Tim Legler:When he's feeling like he is now and you're going to play him a certain way, he's going to go eat. And that's basically what he did last night. First of all, there's no way I'm playing Jokic straight up as much as they did last night. It was crazy. I mean, he just, oh, here we go.

37:55Bill Simmons:It looked like a guy in the driveway with his kid. They gave Zubac a little too much credit, I think, because he had some good moments against him last year. So they're like, well, we could try this because of Zou. And he just, he annihilated Zou. And then he was even meaner to Lopez.

38:08Tim Legler:Yeah, and look, and you're talking about two guys, like Zubac, I believe, he was on one of the all-defensive teams last year. He was. He was great last year. Maybe like third-team all-defense or something. Lopez has been on the all-defensive team in this league. Now he's older now, and he's more of a rim protector than he is like guard guys one-on-one. I think he retired after last night.

38:25Bill Simmons:I didn't see the official announcement didn't happen yet.

38:27Tim Legler:And somebody made a good point on social media. They watched every shot he made and they're trying to see at any point did he hit the rim? No.

38:36Bill Simmons:Right in the middle of it. It's unbelievable.

38:39Tim Legler:And look, last night he missed three of his first four shots and then he just went 17 for 19. Somebody sent me and I'm trying to find it because have you seen his shooting splits from distances?

38:52Bill Simmons:Isn't he... I think he's like 70 % on twos or something.

38:57Tim Legler:Here's what he's shooting. Yeah, he's like 78 % on Tuesdays. Here's from distances. Zero to three feet. This was prior to last night, so I have a feeling it went up.

39:08Bill Simmons:Yeah.

39:09Tim Legler:Okay, zero to three feet, he's 92 % from the field. Okay, three to 10 feet, 70 % from the field. 10 to 16 feet, 73 % from the field. Wow. 16 feet out to the three-point line, which is a very small sample size, but he hasn't missed all season. And then he's shooting whatever he's shooting from the three, which is like 41 % from the three.

39:34Bill Simmons:Good luck. Well, you talk about the fatigue thing. Because I was thinking about that too yesterday. And he had a quote, I think it was last night, but I saw it in the last 24 hours about the bench. And they're like, what's different about the team this year? And he's like, we have a veteran bench. We have experienced guys that come in now. I feel like I'm in good hands when we go to the bench. He said something like that. Don't quote me on the exact thing. But I was thinking like, he goes to the bench last year and it's stressful when he's on the bench, right? You're in your bench, you're resting, but you're also like, I hope we don't fuck it up.

40:08Bill Simmons:Do I have to go back in? Now he's just like, I'm going to go to the bench and relax and hang out and watch these guys and we'll be fine. And I just, I saw a guy last night that was, that really liked the team he had and really had an edge. You know, like there's no question. there's some Wemby stuff happening. There's the OKC thing. There's a lot of Giannis talk. There's Houston. And, you know, he's like, not that he's reading the clips, but I really think he believes in the team they have. What's interesting is Cam Johnson has sucked from a shooting standpoint this season. And Brown's not shooting well either.

40:44Bill Simmons:So there's like another level for these guys to go. They're 9-2. They lost that first game against Golden State, first game of the year that they should have won. they had a stupid loss to Portland. Portland's beaten both OKC and Denver somehow. But I watched that game on Halloween. Really dumb loss. They should have won that. And that's it. Like, they've been, they're second in offense, second in defense with rating. And they're, you know, these two shooters that they thought they were going to have aren't even shooting the ball. Well, Hardaway is. But I feel like they have a level to go up.

41:14Tim Legler:They definitely do. And I think the other thing I noticed last year about Jokic, and I mentioned it several times throughout the season, he was overtly, incredibly frustrated did last year. Remember the times you'd see videos of him and he'd be standing up in the huddle of timeouts and just ranting and like slapping his hand and he'd be so, and sit down on the court. He got caught up in all these weird things with defenders where he was just like trying so desperately to like get an off the ball foul by running for the cut but like grabbing the guy at the same time where they both fall to the ground.

41:44Tim Legler:And I'm like, what is he doing? And ref stuff too.

41:45Bill Simmons:There was some ref stuff that was unusual for him last year. Definitely. Which he didn't usually do.

41:50Tim Legler:I think it's because he didn't think he had a good enough team to win, Bill. I really do. And I think now he believes they're back in it. This is to think it's hard to imagine the guy just won three MVPs could be playing his best basketball, but I honestly believe he's playing basketball right now. And one last point about him, Oklahoma city's defense, which we talked about a lot here in the beginning, this is the one player in the league that I feel like can operate in a, in, in still a dominant way against them because it might not be, you know, 40 point game, but he can control the game against Oklahoma city defense.

42:25Tim Legler:And if you look at all the other elite scores in this league and the way they have to go about it, they're not going to pick you apart with their passing for the most part. They're not going to go get 20 rebounds if that's what it takes against Oklahoma city. So like his overall way of dominance and the way he can operate against one-on-one defenders, even against the elite guys that OKC has, he can still do his thing against them. And a lot of guys are going to struggle to have their normal average game against this defense. Jokic can. And that's why right now, I agree with you. And I think Houston would be the next team on my list in the West.

43:04Tim Legler:Me too. But I don't think they're quite on Denver's level right now.

43:08Bill Simmons:You know, two notes from last night that I really was thinking about on the drive home, which isn't a short drive because the Intuit Dome is pretty far away from basically everything. First of all, I think he's the best offensive player I've ever seen in person. And I don't say that lightly. I'm not saying he's the best scorer. I'm not saying he's the best player. But he's the best offensive player I've ever seen in person. He can just do everything. He sucks the life out of the crowd. The defenses don't really know what to do against him. They try these weird tactics. It doesn't work. And I just think I've just never seen anybody better than them.

43:48Bill Simmons:And I really decided that last night once and for all, I was trying to think about like, where is he in my top 10? Like, and he, and he's just getting closer and closer to that bird magic Duncan kind of level for me. Uh, one title I think hurts probably legacy wise. He needs another one, but he's at least like, he's at least what Wilt was in the sixties. Like the shit we're watching year after year after year, you got to put him there. The other thing is, I think he's my favorite player to see in person of this century. And it was either him or Curry, where it's just like, I'm going to drive down on a Wednesday.

44:23Bill Simmons:They're playing here. I get to go see Blank. And I think him and Curry are in the finals. And I think I enjoy the Jokic experience a little bit more because there's so much going on. And he's the maestro of everything. And he's telling everybody what to do. And he's just so locked in the way Duncan was, but it's just everything feeds off him. It's just fucking amazing to watch. It really is.

44:46Tim Legler:I don't think anything you just said is remotely, even somebody could come at you aggressively in a debate and say, what are you talking about? Because I completely agree with you. For me, I've put Curry second all time for just flat out must see. Yeah. Behind Jordan.

45:04Bill Simmons:Yes, I think that's fair. Jordan's going to be my number one all time removing Bird and Magic.

45:08Tim Legler:And, you know, and I got some of those up close and personal because I was on the court watching that. So it's like, you know, you just kind of know what that was about. But then I like the way you put it this century. So like put that, you know, the 80s era, which you and I both love. And I love those Celtics teams in the 80s like you did. Larry Bird's my favorite athlete of all time. So we have a lot in common that way. And then, you know, you got the Jordan era. That's kind of his. And now you go, OK, this century, then let's let's go. There's a lot of guys that are super entertaining that are, you know, top 10 players all time.

45:38Tim Legler:In that category, for me, in terms of, holy hell, he's playing, I have to see this tonight. Curry would be the next guy for me, but I understand why somebody could make the argument for Jokic too, because it's at the point now, the stuff he does is blowing your mind with his, and I think for me, I'd say, what's his number one trait? Is it the passing for a big guy? now for me it's the touch it's the hands how about the hands they said has anyone ever had better hands no nobody nobody nobody and i don't gotta do there's some guys that would have been good people to put in that argument but i think he now he's separated himself from everybody it's the best set of hands i've ever seen on an nba player um his touch and his ability and natural sense of of distance of depth perception because he shoots the ball sometimes coming out of a spin when you know for a fact he has not located the rim yet and he's already going into his shooting motion and it's incredible and the ball ends up hitting nothing it's so soft and it just drops in so like his innate sense of touch and distance from anywhere on the court but particularly those areas like 18 feet and in and some of the different because he's not getting off the ground and you still are just so helpless against his release point it's crazy man

47:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, the Curry thing, it's good to talk about both those guys because I think the thing they share other than just you've never seen anything like it when you see them in person is they're just complete one-on-ones. Yes. I just don't feel like we're seeing another one again. Jokic has this bird magic Walton hybrid thing. All guys that I grew up loving watching play basketball and somehow he has pieces of all those guys. as Curry I've never seen before. But you go to the arena and you're like, I just get to see something that doesn't exist after this guy stops playing. It's just gone. Totally agree.

47:41Bill Simmons:And the other thing I love with Jokic, which some guys have had, and this was one of my favorite things about seeing Kobe in person. Like they just really give a shit. There's like a crazy competitiveness on every single thing. They're always like, and I don't mean like bitching about calls, but they're always just exasperated, lobbying, pointing, pushing. like they're just really locked into the result. And I was with my friend Mike Tolan last night who I shared tickets with. Jokic had like 50 or 52 or 48, I don't remember. And we were arguing about, does he know how many points he has? And we decided, no.

48:15Bill Simmons:I don't think he had any idea because I don't think he cares. I don't think he looks up. He didn't play any differently when he had 48 points. It's not like, oh, I got to get mine now. He was still making all the right plays and it was just really cool to watch. He would have been fine at like, I guess I got 48. I don't think he would probably find out after, right?

48:33Tim Legler:I think that's probably true. And I also think there, I think also for guys that score, shoot, whatever, I do think there's like an internal scoreboard in your head. Like even if you're not actively looking at the board or grabbing a stat sheet at halftime, you are sort of acutely aware. You know you're hot. Yeah. And even like the exact number pretty much. But he might be the exception. You might be right. Because I could see him, and the game would be easier to see, if he's out of the game, like not glancing up at the board at all. No. Just kind of sitting there. Here's the thing. What if this game, it was required of him to play another, you know, eight minutes?

49:17Tim Legler:He would have 65.

49:18Bill Simmons:Well, so we started rooting for the Clippers to come back. Because it was right around 20 near the end of the third quarter. And we're like, we need a Clipper run. we need him to have to go back in because he might be able to get 70, but they couldn't have blessed.

49:32Tim Legler:Well, think about this. So you got two guys that we just talked about, combined five MVPs, five titles, four for Curry. And last night they scored 101 points between them.

49:43Bill Simmons:Right, right. A couple other Nuggets notes quick. You've done games with them in person this year, right? Have you done a Nuggets game yet or no? Denver, yeah, I've done Denver game. I don't know how, but Gordon's just bigger. Yeah. Gordon's just mammoth. And I thought he was big last year. And by the way, he's playing great. All his shooting stuff's up. But, you know, it's funny. Like one of the narratives with the Clippers was we got John Collins because Gordon killed us in the playoffs and we needed like a forward with size. Aaron Gordon's way bigger than John Collins. He looks like he's like 40 pounds heavier and he moves and he just looks like he's a tight end.

50:24Bill Simmons:Like he looks like he should be on the Chiefs with Mahomes.

50:28Tim Legler:Totally agree, yeah. It's obviously he's serious about taking care of his body. Oh, yeah. He just looks great.

50:35Bill Simmons:What he comes into the season looking like. Moving great, the whole thing. So that was one. I thought Murray didn't do anything last night, but you could just tell he had his explosiveness because a year ago at this time he was out of shape. And then I really liked how Hardaway looked. And that's somebody I've always liked. that is like, I think you need those random bench guys, especially in a playoff series, like in a seven game series, can you get hot twice for us? I still think he's got some, some juice left. So yeah, I would have them number two. And then conversely, this Clippers thing is a disaster.

51:08Bill Simmons:And I don't know if it gets better because, and I look, I understand why they traded Norm Powell. They, uh, they didn't want to pay him. He was entering his final year of his contract. He wanted an extension. They didn't want to give it to him. They want to save cap space for two. I get it. They tried to get smart. We'll get John Collins. We'll put Bradley Beal. Bradley Beal will give us the Powell stuff. Bradley Beal's out for the year. Ty Lue said after the game yesterday, we just lost our third best player. It's like, did you just say Bradley Beal's your third best player? Like your third best bench player or your third best actual player?

51:47Bill Simmons:because you have Harden and Kawhi Leonard and Zubats. And I'm positive Bradley Beal isn't better than Zubats, but whatever, you can say that. But this gamble just failed because what Powell did for them last year was he would carry their offense for like five, six minutes, right? Or if Kawhi wasn't playing, it's like, well, we have Harden. We're also going to get 25 from Norm Powell tonight. And now they don't have it. And it's all Harden and role players. And then Kawhi plays every once in a while. And this team's not going to make the playoffs, I don't think.

52:17Tim Legler:Yeah, they have a totally different feel about them now. And I saw them in the preseason and I was so impressed. And Kawhi played that night. Beal didn't play, but Kawhi played that night. And he looked great. I mean, he looked lean and he was bouncy. And I'm going, man. And that night, Lopez played great. They played the two bigs together sometimes and that worked. It was a preseason game, but it was against Denver, actually. And both teams played for about two and a half quarters to win. So it had a different feel about a preseason game. So you actually could learn something from it. And I walked away from that saying, man, the Clippers, like they're going to kind of be in the mix a little bit in the West because last year they were one of the top five defensive rated teams in the league.

53:04Tim Legler:And I loved their athletes on the wings and they could pressure the ball. Powell took a lot of pressure off of Harden. and Harden had a very good year because he had Powell there to go get 20 on a bad night, 35 on a good night. And Harden could pick his lane a little bit more. And then Kawhi missed half the season, but he was upright for the rest of the year.

53:26Bill Simmons:Right. He looked great.

53:27Tim Legler:Right. And so you're thinking, okay. And then you got the Derek Joneses and the Duns of the world and these guys, they get their coffees and they get after people. And it's like, man, okay. And now you got, you add some depth and some vets that can play. But man, oh man, man, Beal might be done. I mean, you're three weeks in. Well, Beal's done for this year. Yeah, no, but I mean, you might be done, period. You're talking about three weeks into the season, you're shutting it down for the year. That's, man, oh, man, oh, man. I mean, who knows where it leads with Bradley? I hope not. I hope he comes back.

53:56Tim Legler:But I'm just saying, that is pretty serious, and as a guy that has had injuries already, Kawhi hurt now, sprained knees, sprained foot. I mean, it doesn't sound like it's going to be too long, but you also go, man, you know, last year, once he came back, he kind of stayed back. And now he's, and so you thought, I said, going into the summer, the best thing to come out of last year was that Kawhi Leonard went into the summer for the first time in like five years healthy. So all he could focus on was like his body and his game and not read.

54:25Bill Simmons:He sprained his ankle, right? So maybe that's, maybe he can come back from that. But yeah, just bad luck coming out of the gate.

54:30Tim Legler:But it's his knee too. They're saying it's his knee and his foot. And then, so now I don't know, who knows? Is it going to be one of those things where he's in and out of the lineup all the time? and now there's more pressure on Harden again, which he shouldn't have to carry that kind of load at this stage of his career. So you're right.

54:45Bill Simmons:And no heat check guy. There's no guy who's like, hey, for four minutes, can you get us some buckets here?

54:51Tim Legler:No, and the other thing, 12 of their next 14 games are on the road. And the other thing, they're in the West, which has some really good teams. Yeah, so they could, as the late great Yogi Berra used to say, right? It could get late early out here and it could for them too. You're talking about that's a month of basically road games. Three and eight.

55:13Bill Simmons:You figure New Orleans, Dallas, Sacramento, Utah, Memphis would be the five that you would say would have said before the season, maybe weren't going to be in the play-in or maybe Portland over. But Portland feels like if Holiday is going to be healthy, they're going to get some guys back. Portland might be like a 500 or better team.

55:33Tim Legler:They play hard. And there's been some teams this year that impressed me with that, with like level of just effort there. You know who else is playing harder? A lot harder. And it's been nice to watch Phoenix. Yeah. Last year I would watch that team and I'd go, man, this is just so bad. Like the level of effort defensively. Forget that. Like, you know, some of the offensive stuff that we focused on so much with those guys trying to play together. It was more to me about, okay, well, all right, that's some rough sledding some nights because you got a weird mix of guys. You don't have a true point guard.

56:06Tim Legler:but how about the other end of the floor? Can you compete a little bit? This year, they're playing harder and I would actually put Portland in that category too.

56:14Bill Simmons:Yeah, Jordan. Yeah, Phoenix. Yeah, and they have better chemistry obviously. You know, it's still early. They're seven and five but I've been pleasantly surprised. Portland feels more real to me because with Klingen and Kamara and Holiday, they actually have three elite defensive guys. I don't know if Klingen can play more than 25, 26 minutes a game but when he's out there, you feel it. All the advanced metrics with him, he's probably the best-rated defensive center in the league if you want to go deep dive advanced stuff. But back to the Clippers, they don't have their pick. They're not going to be like, okay, fine, I guess we're going to go 25-57.

56:54Bill Simmons:To me, they're the number one desperate team now. And Zach theorized on his pod on Wednesday that they could be a Davis home. I just don't think they have anything to give up because it's basically they have the Collins expiring and the Bogdanovich expiring. They could patch together contracts, but they don't have the asset. They don't have the awesome young player to put in the trade. And I just can't, if I'm Dallas, I'm just not giving away Davis. I'm keeping him. But I do wonder, like, could they start talking themselves into a Zach Levine? Could they start talking themselves into a John Morant?

57:28Bill Simmons:Like, there's guys that are going to be out there that are glass half empty, glass half full guys. I just listed two, there's more. And it feels like somebody who can score, I think you got to move sooner than later because it's not sustainable what they have.

57:43Tim Legler:Well, and they're one of those teams and it happens sometimes in this league. They fall into that category of, they load it up with an older roster and it's going off the rails a little bit. It kind of feels like - Kind of like a certain NFL team you might like. Yeah, no kidding. Tell me about it. It's, I'm so depressed. I know. I'm sorry. I just shouldn't have brought that up. I just, I love the NFL so much. And it's just, I just don't even care right now about watching. I'm just so depressed about the whole thing.

58:10Bill Simmons:Yeah.

58:11Tim Legler:But yes, anyway, that's a, that's a pretty good analogy. And so when that happens, it's not like they can go, okay, we're, you know, let's go to now the next phase, which is a total rebuild five years from L. No, like you got guys on your roster that you still have to, it's incumbent upon you to try to win with, but you don't have enough right now and you've got some health issues, they're going to be, yeah, I would think they're going to be actively trying to figure something out to bring an infusion of talent and scoring. Because their offense has been terrible. And by the way, their defense was top five last year.

58:44Tim Legler:They're bottom five this year.

58:46Bill Simmons:They could hang the banner of, we won the summer of 2025. We won the offseason. So that was the consensus coming out of the summer. The Clippers have won the offseason. Well, Beal's gone. Chris Paul is, I don't think, is playable anymore. I think people were excited about that for some minute.

59:05Tim Legler:I think he had back-to-back healthy scratches, right?

59:07Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think it's over, would be my guess. And you put that team, we talked about OKC, San Antonio, how young and scary they are, Houston, how young and scary they are, the Lakers have Luka, Minnesota, I'm not sure what they are yet. But going down the line, I think it's pretty rough for them. So I think they're a desperate trade waiting to happen. I agree. And maybe they patch some expirings together or whatever they have to do. I have to bring up my favorite team, my favorite surprise team of the year, but we're going to take one more break really quick. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.

59:44Bill Simmons:Countless hours in the gym, a thousand shots before tip-off, day after day on the same court with the State Farm stanchion right there. That's right, the best players put in the work. And State Farm is the same way with insurance experts who put in the work as well. Whether you get a digital quote or reach out to a local agent, State Farm is there to get to know you and help you select the right coverage that fits your life and your budget. Putting in the work is what separates the good players from the great, and that's why you want State Farm on your team. So get the coverage that's right for you.

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1:01:57Bill Simmons:Fando puts NBA fans in control, allowing you to choose your own reward every single Friday. Choose between a no sweat bet versus a bet back token versus a 50 % profit boost token. Whatever you want to do. Before you place your bets, check out the Fando Sportsbook app. choose the reward that best fits your betting style. To practice choosing our own rewards, we're going to choose among three options for the following topics. Question number one, coolest NBA cup court. Pacers, Knicks, or Spurs? I'm going to say the Spurs. I really thought they did a good job. And I can take or leave these NBA cup courts, but I did like the Spurs one.

1:02:36Bill Simmons:Super weird. If we're going to do an NBA cup court, let's get weird. Question number two, most likely to go for 50 plus tonight. Brunson's not playing. So it's between Wemby and Curry. I'd actually go with Wemby on this because I think at some point he is due for a 50 point game. He's always in the vicinity of just getting super hot and it's never quite happened. Maybe it'll happen on Friday. Question number three, most likely to win their next game first in November. the Wizards or the Commanders. I'm going to say the Wizards for this because every once in a while, they could just make some threes.

1:03:13Bill Simmons:I don't see a scenario where their Commanders win anytime soon. And I asked House about this and he agreed. So no matter how you play, Fandle's giving you the power to choose your reward. Be sure to make your choice in the app on Friday. Well, let me ask you this first. We're only 11 games in. What's the number one thing you were the most wrong about that you thought heading into the season? That you would take a mulligan on?

1:03:37Tim Legler:Probably say the Heat. Okay, explain. Well, it's funny. One thing, I've been doing this a long time. I own it if I say something. And look, by the way, we're 12 games in. So this still could go either way. And the word I used to describe them was boring. And because you're talking about, you know, of course you're doing your normal, you know, preseason predictions and you're going out every team in the league. And I'm just like, we get to the heat and they're just like, yeah, okay. What? I mean, like they're going to be 500 ish. You know, Spolstra is, is, is one of my all time favorite coaches.

1:04:17Tim Legler:So it's not that he's going to have them as ready as you can and as well prepared as you can. And in-game adjustments are going to be there. but I just looked at their roster and I would, I was saying, who do you like really love to watch play? That's really what it came down to. And that's why I made the comment. They're kind of boring. I don't think they've got enough offense, even though they brought in Norman Powell and I'm like, okay, maybe they win a few more games because you weren't or Powell. I just, the way that they have to play doesn't do it for me. So I don't really consider them as like a team.

1:04:50Tim Legler:By the way, Spolster agreed with you. Yeah.

1:04:53Bill Simmons:Yeah. Spolster's like, it doesn't do it for me either. How do we have a new offense? I can't watch this again.

1:04:58Tim Legler:So that's how I guess I'm most wrong, Bill. Not only was I wrong about just, because look, they're seven and five. I mean, that's not earth shattering. I mean, maybe I thought they'd be five and seven right now. I don't know. No big deal there. It's how they're playing. It's fun to watch. The pace and the entertainment value that they're playing with. That caught me completely off guard. I just didn't see how they could do it and what they had. It's very difficult to kind of reinvent your style completely from one year to the next. Right. Jaime Jaquez has really bounced back from like last year when I was kind of like, man, because I liked him so much when he first came in the league.

1:05:34Tim Legler:And I knew what was going on. He looks great this year.

1:05:36Bill Simmons:Can you win most improved just because you sucked the year before and you were super disappointing and then you became good again? Is that good?

1:05:44Tim Legler:Does that qualify? You know what? I love this conversation. So here's what I think. If you reached a level, and for him it was just a rookie year, but still he played at a certain level. And then you take a big dip and then you reclaim that plus maybe a little bit more, right? Over what you were. No, I think you should be probably disqualified from that award. I would say he's DQ'd.

1:06:06Bill Simmons:Yeah. This is the guy we thought he was going to be last year and he was super disappointing. So yeah, you don't qualify. Sorry, I'm a hack guy.

1:06:11Tim Legler:By the way, but that award, it's interesting because I was talking about this. Clearly it came up with AJ Mitchell's situation. And I'm going, I actually think in some ways the word is almost more about most improved opportunity. Because like AJ Mitchell, I'm watching him play and I'm going, okay, I have a feeling he was doing a lot of this stuff last year, but we didn't see it because he wasn't really playing every night. It's not like, oh, all of a sudden he added that handle to his game in one year or his three-point shooting. No, in the small taste we got of him last year, like there's something this guy can play.

1:06:47Tim Legler:So it's more about he got the opportunity this year for a lot of reasons. and he has jumped all over it.

1:06:52Bill Simmons:It's a stupid award, Lex. It's my least favorite award other than the clutch award. Explain, explain. I just, how do you quantify most improved, right? It usually comes down to somebody added a three-point shot or somebody got more minutes or, I don't know. No, no. Like younger players should get better as they keep playing and keep adding seasons under their belt.

1:07:13Tim Legler:Yeah, I think what you're saying is, and this is where I will agree with you, the reality is if you took 30 teams in this league, there's probably about 90 dudes that if you really looked at their game from last year to this year and what they've improved on and added and how much better players are, it literally could probably be about 90 guys. You could say it about. So could you say it about Davion Mitchell?

1:07:37Bill Simmons:Like Davion Mitchell, I've always liked that if I had been a GM, I a hundred percent would have traded for at some point. I was always waiting for him to find the right team, but he didn't ever really get to play. And now he's playing on Miami. So does that mean he's most improved? Or is it like what you said? Is it just best opportunity? Something like that. I think they should have a where the fuck did you come from award. Because then AJ Mitchell would be the winner. Austin Reeves would have won it last year. Austin Reeves a couple years ago. Maybe Jordan Walsh, if he can keep the momentum with the Celtics.

1:08:11Bill Simmons:Maybe we can get something done. Change the name of that. Did you see Jordan Walsh defending Tyrese Maxey down the stretch of the last Philly game?

1:08:18Tim Legler:I watched most of the second half of that game.

1:08:23Bill Simmons:It was the most exciting moment of the Celtics season. Maxie's been lights out. Walsh shut him down, down the stretch. Celtics lost the game. Moral victory, which is, I guess, all we're going to get. All right, I'm going to get my thing I was the most wrong about. And I was pretty in on my opinion on this team. I had the under for them. I thought they were going to be disappointing. I didn't see it. And it was the Detroit Pistons. And I've watched them a bunch of times. I was definitely wrong. The thing I guess I couldn't have anticipated was what happened with Duren. And I haven't heard anyone talk about this.

1:09:02Bill Simmons:Like, you want to talk about most improved. I know he was top five rebounder. He's different this year. He's just this aggro alpha old school badass center who seems like he came out of like 1994. really, really competitive, kind of relentless. And I think with him and Cade, who went up a tiny level, but he was good last year. And then Thompson's getting more minutes. And that's your foundation with the way Duren has kind of evolved and emerged. The team makes sense to me. It didn't make sense to me before the season. But now I'm like, yeah, if you have those three guys, you have some shooters.

1:09:44Bill Simmons:Robinson has fit in. That was another one I was dubious of. he seems happy.

1:09:48Tim Legler:You and I should have had a conversation then back in like August or September because I had... You like the Robinson thing? Going into the season, I had them as high as third. Oh, wow. I said Cleveland Knicks won two. Probably Cleveland won because they won 64 games last year. They ran it back. If they stay healthy, they're probably going to win in that range again. The Knicks, you know, getting to 60 might be hard. So you're like, okay, they'll probably be two. And then you start going with the... I broke down that next like five or six teams in the middle, obviously Boston, Indiana dealing with stuff.

1:10:20Tim Legler:So then you got Milwaukee, Philly, I had Milwaukee in that spot.

1:10:23Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:10:24Tim Legler:I had, I had Detroit, Orlando three, four. So Orlando has been a little disappointing for me, but I think they're playing a little bit better. It's coming around.

1:10:32Bill Simmons:Yeah. It's coming around the Detroit thing. I just never thought Darren was going to be this good. Even, even though I know he was good last year, but now, you know, he's like a legitimate 20, 2012 guy. he's a guy that I can't believe I'm saying this but I think they have to think about him for 2028 for the Olympics if this is who he's going to be because to have a center I think they're going to need centers with size three years from now we're going to need a couple big badass dudes that can bang bodies he's in there for me but what I really like about this team and Cade played football he's just this really turned into this aggro kind of nasty player.

1:11:18Bill Simmons:I mean that as a compliment. And Duren's kind of nasty. Both Thompson twins, even though they're these handsome kids that seem like they're, but both of them have a little fuck you in them. Then they have Holland. They have Stewart. This is just like a really tough competitive team and they're competitive night after night after night. So I'm in, I was wrong. I think this has a chance to be the three seed.

1:11:40Tim Legler:Well, I'm going to tell you why I had a little bit also of kind of firsthand knowledge of like what I felt about them. I called one of their playoff games against the Knicks last year. Do you remember the game? It was, I believe it was game four in Detroit. The game at the end of the game and Hardaway got fouled. They didn't call it on the three. Do you remember that game? And I'm telling you, I was calling that game with Dave Pasch and I said at one point, I think it would be easier to complete Navy SEAL training than to get to the rim right now against the Pistons in this game. And the Knicks played really good defense too.

1:12:17Tim Legler:That was, you talk about old school, you know, 90s basketball. So I'm watching this team, first of all, just the toughness, like how physical they are. They do have an elite offensive player as their main focal point in Cade Cunningham. And then it's all these other guys that like with their athleticism and enough shot making. and then they went out and they added a guy that I think really helps them in Duncan Robinson in the spacing because last year they had Tim Hardaway Jr. They had Beasley. Those guys are like, but they're streaky. Duncan Robinson, if he's going to take 10, 12 shots a game and obviously, you know, 90 % of those are going to be threes, he's going to shoot 40%.

1:12:58Tim Legler:He's going to do it like most nights. And he's, look, he's not a stopper defensively, but he's a very conscientious defender and he's long and he doesn't mind running around and chasing guys. So his spacing's been great. and Carysel Verde's been a nice pickup for them too because they needed more offense. They needed, you know, what are we going to do on those nights when like Cade doesn't have it going and like our defense isn't going to be enough. You know, we can't win 105, 103 all the time in this league if Cade Cunningham has a bad night. I think they've addressed it, man. And now they've won what, eight straight?

1:13:30Tim Legler:And the game? Yeah. Actually, the game they won the other night against Washington, even though it's the Wizards, I watched that whole second half in overtime. I did too. Oh, you did? Okay. They had no business winning that game. That's why I kept watching it because they had won a really good game

1:13:45Bill Simmons:the night before against Philly that I thought was like, oh, we're for real. Take us seriously. And then, of course, they're down 20 against Washington. I'm like, I wonder if they're going to come back from this. This will be a nice little test for what we have with Detroit. They came back. They did.

1:13:59Tim Legler:And McCollum hits the runner with 14 seconds left to go up five. 14 seconds. and they won the game on a crazy inbound three and then they went in overtime but my point is i know it's the wizards but that's a game that they easily could have just been like you know what it's just not it's not our night like it's not our night right kind of kind of wave the flag in the middle of the third quarter those are the kind of games that like teams that are like coming into their own win they find a way to win a game on a night against a bad team when you got out outplayed. You don't deserve to win. JB is about to lay into you guys when you get into the locker room.

1:14:38Tim Legler:And next thing you know, you know, you do what you have to at the end of the game to get the win. It was, it was, that was an impressive thing for me for a young team to do in an 82 game season. And now here they are, man, 10 and two, number one in the Eastern conference. So I was very high on them, but I didn't, I didn't think they would be at any point like first in the conference, but they're taking advantage of some stuff for the Knicks and the Knicks are going to probably be without Brunson for a little bit right now.

1:15:01Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think it's legit. I'm all in. And I love Cade's experience as a franchise guy will probably never be replicated where he goes to a bad team and then that team craters as badly as a team can crater. And that winning streak, which he took really hard and openly talked about, he's got this coach that doesn't want to be there. There's 97 things that go wrong. And now I just see a guy when I'm watching flipping around TV. He just seems like he cares the most out of anybody who's on any of the TVs. I just think he's on a mission now. He's a leader. Which is why you want.

1:15:38Tim Legler:He's so smooth. Yeah. He's such a physical presence at that position. He gives them an awful lot of security. They run onto the floor every night and they've already got this toughness about them, but they also know we also have this guy that every night is capable of being the best player in this game. That gives them a lot of confidence.

1:15:58Bill Simmons:They're almost more like a football team. Then the last team I want to talk about really quickly, you know, Houston, it's a little early. The fact that Shepard is floating out there at crunch time for them, I think is super important because I was, in my head, I was like, they're probably going to have to make a trade if they don't want to waste this Durant window, but they might be able to not make a trade and just keep what they have. there's a Durant piece that's happening where he seems as locked in and as happy and as this was not the guy from Phoenix I'll just put that this is a guy who seems like he's all in on this team really likes playing with these guys respects the coach and I was thinking about all the different coaches he's had he's never really had a coach like Imei very true where if whatever Emei's one of those guys, and he definitely did it in Boston.

1:16:57Bill Simmons:All right, end of the meeting. Can everybody leave? I just want to hang back here with Jalen Brown. Okay, everybody leaves. Then he locks the door. Only one of us is going to leave. We're settling this now. He's like an all-time in-your-face, direct conversation, not putting up with any bullshit guy. And I think it's actually good for Durant. As dopey as that sounds.

1:17:21Tim Legler:No, I think that's a great observation. And I think it's exactly what Kevin Durant needs in this situation at this stage of his career. And I love that about Eme Udoka. And that's why I think this team, you know, right now you and I both agree it's OKC. Denver's right there. Houston would be the next team, but there's a little bit of separation. I would have Houston and Cleveland if we're going to go both conferences.

1:17:44Bill Simmons:I still think with the way Tyson has come on for Cleveland, when they have everybody back, I still feel like they have a level to them. So I'd have Cleveland-Houston maybe in that order.

1:17:54Tim Legler:I think Houston went out and they added the one thing they didn't have. Because last year I loved their team. I loved watching how hard they played. But they had some really questionable decision-making in close games. Jalen Green was a wild card. You couldn't run your offense always through Shangoon. So they didn't know what to do. And now we've got a solution now. This is a guy that can go score at any time in the game against any – there's no answer for Kevin Durant offensively. And now, VanVleet goes down. I said the same thing you did. I said it before the season. If Reed Shepard isn't ready, they might have to take a step and make a move because you didn't bring Kevin Durant thinking about the horizon over the next few years.

1:18:33Tim Legler:You think about winning this year and every year he's on your roster because of where he's at in his career. So they might have to do something. And Reed Shepard didn't start out great, but he's found his rhythm. And I think it started with this. And this is what's so important to me in watching his game. I'm saying, listen, he's athletic. He's quick. He's got to really, he really gets off the ground on his pull-up. So he can get that mid-range shot off. He's pretty active defensively. As long as he's not playing against a bigger guard, because those guys bully him a little bit with strength. But if it's just quickness, he's laterally pretty good.

1:19:08Tim Legler:The one thing he wasn't doing was making open threes. And I'm like, let's start there. get yourself to the point where Ima Yudoka and this staff isn't frustrated with you because now the other things that maybe you're not as good at right now are going to really drive them nuts and they're going to get you off the floor make some open shots because that ultimately is something you're going to have to do with the guys that are generating these looks with Shangoon and Durant. So he started doing that. And now you watch him. And now he's out there to do some stuff. Like, he's like, I can play, man.

1:19:49Tim Legler:Give me the ball. I can get it in the ball screen. He's got a little Mark Price in his game. Like with the ball screen, he kind of reminds me.

1:19:55Bill Simmons:More Mark than Brent now. I was worried there was more Brent than Mark, but now it feels like we're closer on the Mark Seesaw.

1:20:01Tim Legler:I agree. And it's, look, he's got a, I'm looking at this now. I mean, he's got a five game run here over the last five games. Four of those, five out of six in double figures. the last three games, he's averaging almost 18 points a game. And he is shooting 13 for 21 from the three. So he's over 60 % from the three. And they're putting him in the right corner.

1:20:20Bill Simmons:Yeah. It's just interesting. I noticed it a couple games ago. I'm like, oh, it's out there. Kind of a pivotal moment here. This is interesting. And now I feel like with their best five, they just kind of need one knockdown shooter. We know this guy, defense has to think about it. So yeah, I thought that was a good wrinkle. And I think Durant's just completely engaged. Like he's obviously bounced all over the map from a happiness standpoint over the last 20 years. I'm attached to him. He's one of my favorite players to watch. I don't know what happened to him last year. I don't know what happened in Phoenix.

1:20:54Bill Simmons:Nobody will talk. It was nobody's fault apparently that we had one of the most unhappy teams of this decade. But nobody's to blame. But he seems really engaged with this team. And I think he likes these guys. and it's a no bullshit. Everybody tries. Everybody plays hard. So there's a ceiling. But it's weird. Reed Shepard's probably the, he's probably the litmus test for how far that team's going to go. Because I don't, if I were them, I wouldn't want to, like I was talking about last week about Tar Eason and the Phoenix pick and Van Vliet's contract for Derek White. Like, do they have to do something like that?

1:21:27Bill Simmons:I wouldn't do anything. I'd ride this Reed Shepard thing out and see if it works.

1:21:31Tim Legler:I agree with that. And right now they're feeling pretty good. They won seven out of eight. they're in the mix they've got a pretty good stretch here Portland who plays hard Orlando Cleveland Denver Phoenix Golden State that's their next run and so that Denver game Friday November 21st hopefully everybody's healthy and available for that and maybe you can kind of really now these two teams that we're talking about the challenge OKC can go head to head you can get a better idea favorite rookie before we go quick I'm sticking with Cooper Flagg but I love what Edgecombe has done in Philly, but he's cooled off a little bit, but I still think it's all there.

1:22:08Tim Legler:I'm just a, I'm a big believer in Cooper Flagg as a can't miss. I think he's going to be a star in this league. He's going to have some shooting issues this year. I knew it. Their team, obviously things are falling apart around him. So some nights it looks rough for him. I'm not even remotely like kind of swaying in my opinion of what I think Cooper Flagg is going to end up being.

1:22:29Bill Simmons:Yeah, I'm not going to worry about him until he's like 22, which is three years from now. Besides he and Edgecumbe, who's standing out to you? I love Flagg. We talked about this last time. Playing him at point guard was, I just thought, idiotic. His roster has turned out to be a really bad roster. If you take Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson just looks like he's washed up, maybe he can bounce back. But we're seeing a guy who looks like he's washed up. I've been really... I love Knipple in the draft. I just think he looks like he's 27 years old already. I don't like he LaMelo's out he's running offense for them he rebounds he's always in the right spots doing the right things and I think when LaMelo and Brandon Miller come back because they kind of hit on Kalkbrenner he's like oh no doubt an actual 30 minutes a game half decent center but I want to see when they have all their guys back Knippo is like just I will admit I may have missed

1:23:25Tim Legler:I may have missed the ceiling down the road on Knippo going into the draft I was kind of like, it's kind of like, man, this dude is really shooting up these draft boards. I'm like, he's going to be a top five pick. I was like, wow, man. Okay. And, and now I see it. I see why, like he's, you're, you make the best point of all. He has a feel for the game that you just cannot, you cannot teach. Does not seem like a rookie. I love that. He rebounds too. It's like six and a half rebounds. Some guys don't show that bill until year three, four, like for him to be showing it three weeks in, to his, you know, his NBA, started his NBA career.

1:24:03Tim Legler:He's got a comfortability factor about him. That doesn't really go with being someone his age, playing in a league full of grown men. When you, with a lot of scrutiny on you as a high pick, most of those guys, and they have major butterflies every night. It could last half a season, even the ones that are like playing pretty well. It's, it's just, it's different for those guys. And if Knipple, it looks like this is exactly where I'm supposed to be and what I'm supposed to be doing. So he's got a maturity about him. That's going to really bode well. And he's going to be, I think, better overall long-term than maybe I thought.

1:24:38Tim Legler:I didn't think he'd be a bust or anything. I just didn't know that he'd be this good.

1:24:42Bill Simmons:Yeah, we're not allowed to bet on this award. But I do think he's a stealth rookie of the year candidate because he's going to put up stats, play big minutes. Coward's been really good. You know, the Celtics have this Hugo, I think, if there's something there. He's just like the guy you hated playing pickup against where everyone's telling him to calm down. He's one of those guys, but just really athletic, huge hands in the right spots, like good instincts. I think they might have looked at. I love this draft. I thought it was great. All right, Legs, you're calling what game tomorrow night? Lakers versus?

1:25:11Tim Legler:No, I'm not actually. No, I'm out in LA for a studio day. I'm only here to do NBA Today tomorrow. I'm on set with the NBA Today crew. And then we have a game next week that was changed. We originally thought we were, I think, going to Miami for a game, but now it's going to be Dallas and the Knicks is my next game next Wednesday night with, of course, Mike Breen and Richard Jefferson. All right.

1:25:37Bill Simmons:Thanks for popping on. It's always a pleasure to see you. Great to see you. Thank you. Anytime. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the FIFA World Cup 26. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26 for you. The stakes are just aside. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26. It's giving you a chance to win$1 million worth of tickets and prizes. Michelob Ultra, from the pitch to the poor, superior is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6. Michelob Ultra, FIFA World Cup 26, superior access.

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1:26:59Bill Simmons:Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6. Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26. Superior access. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. Residence 21+. Begins on December 1st, 2025. Ends on July 31st, 2026. Multiple entry periods. visit www.mickelobalture.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. All right, we're gonna do some Ringer 107 picks for week 11. House and I have been struggling. We're two games under 500 through 10 weeks. House doesn't think it's struggling. I wanted to be at like high 50s percent at this point.

1:27:43Bill Simmons:So I'm not happy. We're sprucing up the marriage. We're bringing in Billy Gill. He joined the Ringer a couple weeks ago. He's based in Florida. House, I just, I thought we needed to get a little weird this week. And you didn't know what was going on. It's like, is this my replacement? It's just, he's here. He's to think of him like a therapist to help us work out our relationship here. I mean, you talked about sprucing up the marriage and we're going down to Southern Florida. I mean, that's interesting. We could call Bob. Let's get some recommendations in here. I'm happy to be on here with Billy.

1:28:14My first question, I need to know the ground rules. Am I allowed to say bad things about the Miami heat? Is that one of these things here with Billy Gill?

1:28:23Bill Simmons:What are the guardrails, Billy? Well, okay. This is interesting. First, I'm glad to find out that I'm here as like a therapist. Because when you told me that I was being introduced into the relationship, I wasn't sure exactly my role as like the third here. I mean, it could be a massage therapist. Okay. Well, if I'm just like... Settle down. You just met him. I'm mediating here then between the two of you maybe to make this work out. Mediator. What's the word? augmenter. Is that a noun? Is that a noun house? You were an English major. Lubricant. Facilitator, gambling, lubricant, any of that stuff.

1:28:59Bill Simmons:So are we allowed to make Miami heat chokes? You can. I mean, I don't see how it's relevant to this relationship, but I'm look, whatever, this is a safe space. Whatever you guys feel comfortable doing, I'm comfortable with. How about Dolphins? Cause the, one of the games we wanted to talk about that will not be in ringer 107 for us is Dolphins commanders, which is house's team, which is one of the things. What is the line house? Two and a half or three. Miami by two and a half, right? Yeah, Miami's favored no matter what, which is appropriate. Should Miami be favored over anybody? I wouldn't think so, but the commanders have been on a horrible run as of late, Joe, as you're familiar with the situation.

1:29:41This is a fun game. This is a game that I actually like this week because there's a lot of things that would indicate this is going to be a bad one, which tell me it might be a good one.

1:29:50Bill Simmons:I like it. You want to list any of them? Okay, so both of them are three and seven. Bad teams. Both of them, however, undefeated in Spain. Both have losing records internationally. Dolphins are two and five. The Commanders are 0, 0, and 1. Terrible defenses. The Dolphins, though, are trending up. They're 1 and 0 since Mike McDaniel decided to remove the Papa shot from the locker room, which he did last week. And then after the game, I don't know if you saw, Mike McDaniel was driving around, decided it would be a good idea to troll Bills fans at a Bills bar in Miami. And then was questioned about that.

1:30:24And he said, no, you know, there's a lot of things going on with AI. So Dolphins. That's House's defense for everything. Everything. It's honestly not the worst defense, I guess. Right? Like, because you don't know anymore what's going on. Like, I've seen Martin Luther King win WWE championships online. Like, it's crazy what's going on right now.

1:30:46Bill Simmons:Yeah, I saw a cheetah jump into a living room and take a baby and pull the baby out of the living room. And then a very small print. It was like AI. I was like, oh, I knew that wouldn't happen. We have very different algorithms. Yeah. I'm somehow in the cheetah baby algorithm. How do I get out of that? You don't want to know about Houston's algorithm. So do we think the Dolphins, are they just a zigzag every other week? They're going to be a good team or there's actually momentum with them at this point? There's no momentum with this team. Like what, what, what could like, the only thing the dolphins do is win games that they shouldn't be winning at this point.

1:31:22Like they, you have no business winning in a game against the bills. All it's doing is costing you in the draft next season. The jets win. Okay. But again, that's not a positive win for them. They already got rid of their GM. You know, that that was going to happen. There's this weird kind of loyalty to make Daniel for some reason, two is going to be really hard to move just because of all the dead cap money that he's going to have. Like I, I, as a Dolphins fan and someone who has a Tua jersey hanging on my wall, which is a strange purchase. Oh, my God.

1:31:52Bill Simmons:I just noticed that. Wow. You framed it and everything. Well, it was a whole thing. He was at the Super Bowl. He signed it. He was coming off his best year. So I thought, you know what? I'm going to commit to this. Then the framer, when I did it, told me I would not do this. He might be cut from the team by Wednesday. And I was like, I was like, dude, I'm trying to give you$300. And he's like, I don't know. I don't feel good taking this from you. But I did it and it's still there because I don't know where to put something that size if not on a wall. It looks nice. I get this. Like, what am I supposed to do with my signed Bradley Beal jersey at this point in my life, right?

1:32:28Right? Like, I can't, I mean, I'm not putting it behind me anymore.

1:32:32Bill Simmons:House has had some amazing jerseys. He had a Bob Surer jersey that he got on early days at eBay. Yeah, it's somewhere back there. I got him a Tom Gugliotta jersey for one of his births, Like your 30th birthday or one of those. That's true, yeah. Yeah, he has some good ones, the old Bullets ones, but nothing compared to the giant Tua jersey in the background, just waiting to figure out how to be stretched on the NFL salary cap for five years. So my two hung jerseys are a Tua jersey there and a Chris Sims jersey behind me that I got on eBay for like$18 that I couldn't believe was still a thing. Yeah, what a steal.

1:33:07That they sold, yeah. Game worn? No, no, no chance. I mean, you've been playing many games. I understand that's what I mean

1:33:15Bill Simmons:wait before we move to the picks can I ask you the seven stages of grief with Dolphin fans and Tua when did when did it stop being a thing that people defended and they just kind of gave into this wasn't probably happening I'm one of the last people who who gave up on him in part just because of my financial commitment to his success and my hope that one day maybe that jersey would be valuable and worth more than the frame that it's in this year has been such a weird tour year because the other years, like you kind of could find excuses. He had injuries. He had his concussion. So this year, he just from the start looked off.

1:33:53And like the easy thing to say is just maybe this is the CTE kicking in because he wasn't the same guy. Like before, at least he'd be decisive here. He was taking too long to pass the ball. But then he'll have weeks that he'll make a throw or two throws. And you're like, you know what? Maybe, maybe. and it's really just because you know there's no way out with him. Like, what do you do? You're paying him$50 million a year. You can't just get rid of him. And then even if you do, you're restarting again, which is just an ongoing thing with the Dolphins.

1:34:23Bill Simmons:See, I'm glad House is here because as you were laying that out, House was trying to figure out the best Bullets Wizard example. And what did you narrow it down to? Like six guys were you in that situation? No, I was worried. Nothing you can do about the salary. You just are stuck with this. Just start trying to see the silver lining. It's again and again and again. I was worried for half the heartbeat there that you were going to try and blaspheme Jaden Daniels. You were going to use that conversation. That I was going to do that. Yeah, because I know you, motherfucker. I know how you roll. I wouldn't do that.

1:34:53I didn't want our Redskins Pats bet.

1:34:55Bill Simmons:I don't need to say anything bad about Jaden Daniels. He's fine. Yeah. All right. So we're going to go through the slate really quickly. We're not going to. We're staying away from Dolphins Washington. We're staying away from Falcons Panthers. that's just a hornet's nest that it's like, here, poke that hornet's nest with a stick, staying away. 49ers Cardinals, we might have in a tease a little bit later, so we might come back to that. House was intrigued by Packers Giants. To me, the Packers are just a stay away. I didn't like the LeFleur stuff. Once that LeFleur coach stuff starts, I just get nervous.

1:35:28Bill Simmons:They have a lot of, I didn't like their injury report. Plus the Giants with the new coach. Do you believe in the new coach theory, Billy? I don't know about the new coach theory. I believe in the Jameis Winston will put up a game once a year. To stay away from Jameis theory. No, it's true. I tried to see if there was a trend on when he takes over teams for the first game, if he always wins. Because it feels like you get suckered into Jameis once a team. But sometimes he wins, sometimes he loses. He's always Jameis. Some guys just, there's no way to even attach a trend to them. They're just that volatile.

1:36:04Bill Simmons:I think Jameis is one of them. Anyway, we're staying away from that. I vote staying away from Steelers-Bengals, especially not knowing if Rodgers is the formaldehyde is officially killing his arm. And then Cowboys-Raiders, an official stay away. There's two possibles. How? So you said you like Bill's Bucs. I don't agree with you, but what was your Bill's Bucs case? I've kind of moved off of it. I feel like this version of the Bucs doesn't match up with the Priors, what we've seen earlier this season where they were able to come back. They really were competitive against good teams. I think this Bills team with where they are right now, after waving the white flag against the Dolphins, they're ready to come in, do one of their home game things where they just get rolling and go downhill and they win by margin.

1:36:52But, you know, the counter to that is that the Bucs defense is a decent run-stop unit. And so you're like, you know, the Bills are the best run team. They need Cook to get going so that Allen can have the time because they still have, you know, poverty receiving core. But I'm fine with staying away.

1:37:11Bill Simmons:I thought the Pats basically made three long plays. Other than that, Tampa was really physical. I was kind of impressed by them. I thought they gave the Pats a good game. And the Pats just made a couple great plays, got some stops. But I think Tampa's pretty good. But anyway, that line is Bills minus five and a half. I feel like it's a stay away because I don't trust the Bills at all on like third and eight. I don't feel like they have their receiver. What did you see last week with them, Billy? You want some Baker passing stats for this one? Yeah, let's see. That you might like. Okay, so Baker's overpassing yard to just 213 and a half yards.

1:37:47He's only thrown for under 214 yards twice this season. Both times were against NFC South teams. Outside of the NFC South, 276 passing yards a game. So Baker's going to go off on this game.

1:38:00Bill Simmons:Yeah, I got to say, House, I had the Bucs marked originally, but I wasn't sure about the Bucky Irving piece, whether they're going to be running the ball at all. I'm scared of Buffalo coming off a bad loss. I think it's ultimately a stay away. That's fine. And then Lions-Eagles, we just disagreed on. Was the Eagles one of the ones you liked, House? I love the Eagles. I think the Eagles are. This is a version of the Eagles that hasn't existed up to this point. I think the way that they won that Green Bay game, to me, it's like a huge, like, this is who they're going to be. We're back to trench warfare.

1:38:35They're going to try and dominate on both sides of the ball on the line. And the Lions have shown us they can't compete with teams that take them on in the trenches. That's how the Vikings kicked their ass on the offensive and defensive line. And the Vikings dominated them that way. And I think that the Lions are in for a repeat of that treatment at the hands of the Eagles.

1:39:01Bill Simmons:I looked at that one initially on the Lions side because they have three home games after this. And there's a case for them. Like if they beat the Eagles coming off a late Monday night game, didn't look good. Cigariana was taking shit after. Lions come in, move the ball, do the whole thing. Their injury report is terrifying. And I personally... The Lions injury report. The Lions injury report is terrifying. There's so many guys on it. And Billy, one of the things I wish we could change, I think we're bad at certain things. We've just gotten stuck with certain things. One of them is the NFL injury report where it's basically like questionable, probable, doubtful, didn't practice today.

1:39:41Bill Simmons:I need like more verbs and more adjectives. I need like 20, like Panay Sewell didn't practice today. What does that mean? He's the best player in their offense. Is he going to play or not? Did you like it better? like the NBA when pop would just put old as like reasons why people are skipping. Yeah. Like I want more information on each guy beyond just like these basic verbs. And then we're trying to do this on Thursday and Wednesday, Thursday, but then sometimes they'll practice Friday or they won't practice. And you think this guy's in and then he's out. But to me, the injury report alone is a reason to make it any lion's thoughts.

1:40:16Do you want like a scale, like an injury reports? Like if you're just doing words, you have like, so this is like probable, but like there has to be then subcategories of probable. So, you know, like if it's probable, it's really like 70 % or would you rather have like a number skill, like 83 % chance of playing this week?

1:40:34Bill Simmons:No, I was thinking more like a nuclear bombs, like the DEF CON. Cause I watched that Netflix movie and they kept moving the DEF CON thing. And I was thinking how that, like, I feel like there should be some version of that, like a sliding scale, but I think it should be one to five. So Panay Sewell, if he's not, if he's leaning toward not playing, maybe that's more like injury report too. It's like, oh shit, he's a two. But when it's like, he didn't play, who knows? Like, I don't know what to make of that. So, or maybe it's a one to 10. Is he like, so one would be, he's definitely not playing.

1:41:07Bill Simmons:So maybe it's like a two to three. I don't, I just wish we did better, especially with all the money at stake, all podcasts like this. You don't agree, has? Well, I feel like we could do it. I mean, this is what AI exists for. Let's put AI to the, to the, to the, let's deploy it for the forces of good. Tell chat GPT, Hey, go in here, get the beat writers injury update. The beat writers are physically there at the football field, spitting out information into their Twitter feeds, into their Instagrams. AI, go grab that shit, put it into a number scale for me. Give me the breakdown. That's what I'm paying for, chat GBT.

1:41:46Bill Simmons:We're still, we're just stuck with ways we did things 20 years ago. And I just, well, you and I are, that's for sure. No, no, no. I'm saying like some of these things we, like we have just three judges for championship boxing matches, right? We still have only three. Why can't we have five? Why can't we have seven? Why are we just relying on these three people? You know, this is another one. Like we just have always done the injury report this way. They won't flip it. Just let's do better. Who are we mad at exactly? Is it like the coaches, the players, the league, the reporters. Who is to blame for why we're in this situation?

1:42:19The teams.

1:42:20Bill Simmons:It's the lack of information where it's just like, he didn't practice. Okay, cool. Is he practicing tomorrow? I don't know. And then we're supposed to guess that on Thursday. But this was a perfect example. If he doesn't play, they have no chance against the Eagles, I don't think. We got messed up with Joe Alt that way, trying to make a Chargers pick earlier this season when we thought he was going to play and then he didn't. And we have the two giant butt fucks of the season where Michael Penix looking like he was going to play on a Saturday and not playing on a Sunday. And the same thing with Lamar.

1:42:51The Ravens, I think the Ravens got in trouble, didn't they? Didn't they have to pay a fine for, you know, he wasn't on the injury report and then he was out the next day? Like, oh. Yeah, the Ravens did get in trouble.

1:43:03Bill Simmons:Anyway, we're staying away from Lions-Eagles. Did you have any trends on Lions-Eagles or either of those games? I forgot to ask you. Lions-Eagles, no. So give us, before we go to the five we like, give us two trends that you had. Okay, so I've been looking into alternate uniforms this season because there's alternate uniforms for everything. There's the throwback uniforms. There's these new Nike rivalries uniforms that are going on. Alternate uniforms have not been having a good season. So if you look at the weird throwback uniforms, the Steelers horrific uniforms lose that game. You're saying the one, the 1920s prison uniforms?

1:43:38Bill Simmons:Yeah. Whatever those were. Yeah, yeah. What'd you think of the Packers? I kind of like the helmet where it looks like the old school, like leather helmet. People don't like those uniforms. People like change, it seems. I don't like anything when they go further than like the 1970s. Oh. Because sometimes they'll bring the old Patriots uniforms and they're really nice. The red ones with the Patriot helmet. But for the most, when we start going in the 20s, 30s and 40s, I don't get it. Yeah. Well, okay. So Nike introduced these rivalries. uniforms, but they only picked like five or six teams to do these rivalry uniforms.

1:44:12So it's been a bad season for the rivalries uniform.

1:44:15Bill Simmons:Oh, no. Yeah. The Cardinals were the first team to wear the rivalries uniforms in week four. They wore like a weird, like it looked like a blood splatter type thing that they had on. So they ended up losing that game to the Vikings. Then we go on to week five. The Bills had a rivalries uniform, which was a pretty cool rivalries uniform. It was like this all white. And then they had like a white and silver helmet that honestly would have looked great in a snow game like in December, but they decided to wear it way too early in the season against the Patriots. They lost that game to the Patriots.

1:44:46So 0-2 in the rivalry uniform so far. The only team that's won in rivalry's uniform was the Dolphins, but they beat the Jets. So that one's kind of like a mulligan. That one doesn't really count as a win. This week, we get two new Nike's rivalries uniforms. So the Patriots are going to be wearing them against the Jets.

1:45:04Bill Simmons:And we're taping before that game, but we assume the the Patriots are going to win. Well, this trend would look favorably on that front. And the Rams are wearing this weird one that looks kind of just like their uniform, just navy, like a darker shade of blue against the Seahawks. Here's the trend on these uniforms. So there's lots of teams losing in these alternate uniforms. Now, the Patriots have already won in Nike's Rivalries game jersey. They were not wearing it, but they won the Nike Rivalries jersey game. the Jets lost a Nike's Rivalries jersey game. They also weren't wearing it, but they lost.

1:45:39So if these trends hold, the Patriots are undefeated in Nike Rivalries jerseys games and the Jets are completely defeated in Nike's Rivalries games. So...

1:45:47Bill Simmons:Which bears real life. Yeah. Bet the house on the Bills. Can you tell people... Or on the Patriots. Can you tell people to bet the house? Probably not. Well, the game already happened by the time they hurt. But the Rams, the blue Rams ones, that would be the other one you're saying? That's going to be this week? Yeah, I'm not feeling as strong as them. No, I want to look at those. All right. So the blue would be, oh yeah, so it looks like basically it's hearkening back to the late 70s kind of look. So it's in your window of acceptable kind of throwbacks? I just, I think for Rams, Seahawks, wear your own normal fucking uniforms for one of the biggest games of the entire season.

1:46:27Bill Simmons:What do we need gimmicks for? Well, it's also, I think, a Cooper Cup revenge game, right? Yeah. everybody says they qualify that's what i've been hearing it's the talk of the town can you play for an hour straight without uh without getting hurt give us one more trend before we go to our big picks all right so power couples have been a thing in the nfl the past couple seasons obviously the biggest one was taylor swift and travis kelsey but there have been other minor power couples that have gone on you had hailey steinfeld and josh allen who now got married and that was a power couple. Josh Allen goes on and he wins the MVP.

1:47:05You had a smaller power couple amongst influencers, Braxton Berrios and Alex Earl, but they were a power couple at the wrong time because that's - My daughter was focused on that one. Was she? Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

1:47:17Bill Simmons:She thought her perception was that Braxton Berrios was a bigger star than he actually is. It worked out for Braxton Berrios on that front. However, I think he got like seven receptions that year so it didn't really translate onto the field for him and again like had they come a year earlier a year later they probably would have been much bigger couple but the whole taylor swift situation really ruined it for them but this year we have a new power couple mad madison beer and justin herbert are a power couple so this week justin herbert over one and a half touchdowns is the line he's playing against the jaguars since Madison Beer released her new single on October 10th.

1:47:59Justin Herbert has had over one and a half touchdowns, four out of five games. The Chargers are also four and one in those games. Wow. And the one game that they lost, Justin Herbert passed for 425 yards, but they lost to the Colts. So do with that.

1:48:15Bill Simmons:Damn, and I like the Jaguars this week. So I went to a Laker game, second week of the season, and it was the day after they put it on Thursday, and the two of them were sitting courtside and they showed him on the video screen and it was like half-hearted applause. Just felt like the fans should have been more excited. He's like the fourth best quarterback in the league or the sixth best quarterback, but seemed pretty happy, stayed the whole game. She's one of those influencers with multiple jobs. So she's like singer, social media. I think she's kind of been an actress. I couldn't really follow it.

1:48:49Does your daughter care about Madison Beer at all?

1:48:52Bill Simmons:I told her and she did not care. Okay. No. That one got a no care. Can I ask a question? Yeah. Feels disrespectful to a power couple that's staring us right in the face. I mean, we might see them tonight. Stefan Diggs and Cardi B, that's not a power couple. That's not an NFL. It's tough because he had kids with two different women at the same time. He's in a couple power couples. She's carrying a baby. I know, but then someone else is too. So are others, yeah. Yeah, I think that diffuses it a little bit. She shows up at the games. She did. She was in the craft suite. She was demanding that Drake throw the ball to Stefan.

1:49:32We think that. She's celebrating Stefan Diggs' successes.

1:49:38Bill Simmons:Stefan Diggs has been a great patriot. He's been a leader in the locker room, and I support anything he wants to do in his romantic life. All right, first game that we're looking at here, Billy. Vikings-Bears. I think House and I both like this one. Vikings are favored by three at home. Vikings basically have their full D back. And I was trapped on JetBlue watching four games on the multi-view. And I watched the entire Ravens-Vikings game as one of the four. And I thought the Vikings were in that game the whole game. And I was surprised how the Ravens, how, you know, it seemed like one of those games they were going to put away in the first half and they just kept settling for field goals.

1:50:16Bill Simmons:The Vikings were hanging around. at one point in the second half, it felt like they might actually make a run and McCarthy wasn't quite ready for it yet. But to me, so I think the Vikings are okay. I don't get the Bears at all. I keep track of like wins, losses in these either war games where it could have gone either way. So right now the Bears are two and two and they have five either war games. Their two wins were against Dallas when CeeDee Lamb got hurt. And then they beat Spencer Radler in bad weather at home. And then they're four and one in the either war games. and the wins were Vegas since he washed in in New Orleans.

1:50:50Bill Simmons:The defensive stats are bad. Some other first and turnovers. They're just kind of one of those teams and I'm waiting for it to end. And I don't, I watch these Ben Johnson locker room speeches after the game and Sal and I talk about them every Sunday night. They're hilarious. He's like, this is who we are. Nobody let us hang around the last four minutes. And it's like, your team's terrible. What are you talking about? Do you have any Bears thoughts, Billy? I can't figure out if Caleb Williams is good or not. Because he's like, he's another one of these quarterbacks where it's like, okay, this was an okay first round pick.

1:51:24Like, no, this was a disaster. This is going to go the way of Justin Fields. And then they got him all those weapons last year. Then they fire the coach. They bring in Ben Johnson. They're six and three, but like, six and three? You know, like, is there a team that you guys are convinced is a dominant team this year? Like, a good team? because even the ones with the good records, I have no idea if they're good or not.

1:51:48Bill Simmons:What's your answer, House, as I try to fix the shade in my office? I think both the Rams and the Seahawks are good. I think both of them are good. And I think they're both good on both sides of the ball. We'll do the handicapping of that football game here soon enough. But I want to interject. Can I just say I agree with those two? Okay, good. Anybody else? I think... I mean, the Chiefs. I'll say the Chiefs. I'll go ahead and go way out on a limb. I think the Chiefs are good. This week. Yeah. And I think the Patriots actually might be good. But I just think they need a couple more wins under the old belt.

1:52:26Bill Simmons:Seems like a good... Those would be my far back. But we agree. Rams, Seahawks. I think the Eagles have to get credit just for putting up wins. I mean, there's... You know... At some point, if you're winning every week, you can't nitpick too much. And they're not playing a bullshit schedule. No. They've had hard games. They're beating the best teams. Anyway, what were you going to say? I just wanted to interject on the Caleb Williams question. We have no idea whether he's good or not, because this is the first nine games, eight or nine games with a genuinely competent person calling plays. It's like we're, this is the first time in however many years that he's actually trying to play like an organized offense.

1:53:04And it's why I think we keep seeing these game scripts where the first couple of offensive possessions by the Bears. Hey, look at that team. They look pretty effing good. They're moving the ball down the field. And at the three-hour mark. Right, right. And he bails so quickly. He goes through no progressions. But it's a work in progress. I do think over the balance of a full season, we'll see Ben Johnson, and they'll get on the same page. Right now, you know, it's inconclusive. Leaning, not good. But I don't think we can make a call yet.

1:53:35Bill Simmons:You know what's interesting about him? there should be an award when they do NFL honors. If you did like, you know, and you have like these mixtapes of basketball players in high school and they all look incredible. It's like they're just hitting threes and alley-oop dunks. And you know that's not the experience to actually watch them. The Caleb mixtape this year would be pretty incredible. Like some of the scrambles he's had, especially in big moments, like the pass to Loveland. Yeah, like he's had, but then if you watch him for three hours, there's also like all of these other terrible plays he makes.

1:54:09Bill Simmons:And he's like the classic scrambles to the right and runs out of room and has to throw it out of bounds. He does all that stuff. And then every once in a while, he'll have an awesome throw. But I ironically feel the same about Tua. Not lately, because Tua has kind of fallen into an abyss, but Tua was like that for a while where it seemed like the wheels were coming off. And then all of a sudden he would hit four dudes in a row and be like, wait, is, is he good? What's he just kind of never could get a handle on it. Right. Well, even when he goes, what, like 24 of 27, he has like those three are so bad.

1:54:41And you just look past all of the positive stats. And I'm like, oh, my God, like, what are we doing with this guy? And he's like, well, those numbers aren't actually that bad. His QBR wasn't bad that game. Like, he's not that bad. Right. Who do you guys think, I guess, is the best player or the player that you could make the best highlight reel of in the league that's actually not very good? So you could show someone like, look, this is the NFL. and they see that person like, wow, this guy's incredibly like, they're really not. They just have such like big band plays and the rest of the time, they're just shit players.

1:55:12Bill Simmons:It's probably a running back, right? It's probably like some running back who every once in a while can make people miss. For the Patriots, it's Austin Hooper, the number two tight end. You could cut like he had eight awesome catches this year. And if you cut them together, it's like, is this guy Gronk? Look at these catches in traffic. Who do you think at his house? Joe Flacco, who I love. I say that with all of the love in my heart. I mean, it's just an amazing moment in his career. It's just you like seriously, every one of his throws in Cincinnati have been the best throws, the most amazing throws, the scramble that he had on that Monday Night Football.

1:55:51Anyway, I'll stop.

1:55:52Bill Simmons:Brian Thomas Jr. is like that, too, because he's had a bad year by all accounts. And I have him on multiple fantasy teams and he's had drops over the middle and all kinds of stuff. But he's also had like seven awesome plays. Last year, he had a lot more. Vikings minus three. I think we're locking that one in-house. Lock, lock, lock. The only fear is J.J. McCarthy. Listen, he's up and down. Great throw one play, horrible throw the next play. He'll have an awesome scramble where you're like, wow, this guy, there's something here. And then, you know, he'll be running for his life next play. Literally, you said it.

1:56:26All of the Bears' wins are because of turnover differential, and we're betting on a guy who's a turnover waiting to happen. That's what we do. So, yes, we like the Vikings.

1:56:36Bill Simmons:One other thing, I like kitchen sink game for the Vikes because they have at Green Bay, at Seattle next two weeks, the four and five. This is it. You lose this game. The Bears go to seven and three. You're not going to make the playoffs if you lose this game. Bears could lose the game and be okay. Billy might have to talk us out of this next one. We both like the Browns at home. They're getting seven and a half at home against Baltimore. They played three home games in Cleveland this year. and I think we bet on the last one, the Dolphins one. That was like our pick of the year. They won 31-6. They beat the Packers 13-10 and then in week one, they should have beaten the Bengals and lost by one.

1:57:19Bill Simmons:Then they had an overseas game. And I didn't really like how Baltimore looked last week, but bad weather, Cleveland at home, just ugly. It has all the makings, Billy, but you're making a face. It's just the Browns are such a hard team. to want to take. I mean, you don't think they're going to win. You just think they're going to cover this game, right? Yeah, it feels like a, what, like a 13 of nine. It feels like the AFC North game between these two teams that we've been watching for the last, like, I don't know, 15, 20 years. I mean, there are some incredible splits for the Browns defense, especially home versus on the road.

1:58:00I think over the last three years, I can't remember, this is maybe like Stucky from the Action Network. the Browns against the spread are over 60 % at home. And they're like five and 20 on the road. Like this, just their yards per, you know, offensive possession are the best in the NFL. Defensively, they're, they're allowing an average of 11 points a game at home, but, but only three games.

1:58:29Bill Simmons:We've been talking about this for a couple of years. Yeah. That there's just like two versions of the Browns. And if you can get them at home in bad weather, it's almost like just don't think of them as the Browns. Think of them as their another identity entirely. I didn't like how Lamar looked last week. He's only rushed for 50 yards in two games since he came back. He doesn't have the same explosiveness. And obviously, he's not 100%. He had a hamstring injury. Was it a calf or a hamstring? It was one of those leg injuries. But I just didn't think he looked great. The counter here is we're taking Dylan Gabriel, and there's just some awful, awful Dylan Gabriel stats.

1:59:07Bill Simmons:Really bad. But I'm not sure if it's a bad weather home game. Like, is he even involved in this game? Nope. He's going to run the ball. Quinshawn, Quinshawn, Quinshawn. Yeah. I don't like that situation for Lamar. I have him in a guillotine league. I got him for$2 last week. And I was like, this is going to be, this is how I win the league because half the teams ran out of money. And then there was only one other person with money. Like literally$0 is how I got him for two. because I realized there's only one other person that can bet or can bid on him. And he has Josh Allen, so he's not going to do it so that I can save money.

1:59:40And now we're just in like survive week to week mode. And there's one other person with money in this league. And if I knock him out this week, we're good. So I was going to play Lamar, but now I'm thinking against playing Lamar this week.

1:59:54Bill Simmons:I would not play Lamar this week. What's your other option? I concur. All right, hold on. Yeah, that's a stay away. I'm in the same situation, the guillotine league house and iron that house got knocked out of. There's seven teams left and only three have money. Everyone else has zeros. And now it just becomes Hunger Games for these like superstars the last couple of weeks with the three people have the money. Well, so I'm down to three teams because we only had, I think, 12 teams in it this season. So it's three of us that are left. Only one other person has money. They have like$80. I have like 500, which is kind of useless.

2:00:27And then the other guy that's in first has$0. So if I just survived this week, I can just outspend everyone else. You just put together an all-star team.

2:00:36Bill Simmons:Well, it sounds amazing. And it's also like Matthew Barry is in this league for some reason. So like there's the added, I just want to beat the guy who has come up with this and has made a career out of fantasy. Like, even if I lose the rest of this, he's like, I don't know how many leagues you guys are in with just like normal people that they think, oh, because you're in sports, you know so much about this. and they get like this pride and beating. And it's like, I don't know shit. Like, I know the same as you guys do about everything else. Like fantasy wise, I'm just hoping my guys don't get injured.

2:01:08And like, it's a crap shoot. But the pride that I would take out of knocking out someone who's made their entire lifestyle out of fantasy would just...

2:01:15Bill Simmons:You should start doing taunting videos. I mean, I don't want to pour water on this, but I think he's in like 27 leagues. Yeah, no, I know. I'm not the only one. Might have like minions doing his teams. Honestly, the reason that I'm trying to sneak by is because I'm like, this is so low on his list of priorities in terms of fantasy. He might not even know he's in the league. Yeah, probably. Well, he went a little crazy with the money this week. He was throwing out like$200 of people. Play somebody other than Lamar. Who's your other choices? I have Herbert, so I think I'm going to go with Herbert this week.

2:01:46Actually, you know what? Yeah, I like Herbert. Well, especially after the Madison Bierstadt. I don't know why I was even giving a second thought.

2:01:52Bill Simmons:I had to stop. I don't play fantasy basketball anymore because anytime I was in a fantasy basketball league in an auction, anytime I started bidding on somebody, people would just go$1 higher than me just because they figured, well, he loves basketball. If he likes this person, I'll just go$1 higher. It just wasn't fun. House was one of those people. Yeah. Guilty. F-U House. Speaking of the Jags Chargers, I had this one marked down, Jags plus three. so Herbert could still have a good game it could still hate your trend it's going to be 78 degrees in Jacksonville and I'm guessing a little bit humid too right see if the Chargers these LA kids they get to play in a dome they don't really get to see this but I thought the weather actually mattered last week in that Buffalo game and we see it in Miami what twice three times a year these teams go to Miami and the weather's weird and I feel like it happens in Jacksonville and it'll happen in Tampa.

2:02:51Bill Simmons:But there's some really interesting... I mean, the Chargers offensive line is just terrible. And they lost their two anchors. It didn't really manifest itself last week because Rodgers was so bad and it almost didn't have to. But I just feel like the Jags, they're like a zigzag team and this is the week to follow the zag. Jags plus three. Feels like a three-point game. House, if Jacksonville won last week, which they should have won, and thank God they didn't because we had the Texans, if they won, is this spread even? It's... What do you mean even? Like near pick-up or minus one or something?

2:03:31Bill Simmons:Is it Jags pick-up against the Chargers or is it in the tic-tac zone? No, no, no. Yeah, tic-tac zone probably. I don't think it would have gone all the way down because the way that the Chargers won, that's really what I think this price is about. They dominated the Steelers on national TV, so they're giving out a price. Did they dominate them or was Rodgers just horrible? But think about us. Rodgers was horrendous. And I thought the Steelers defense was tremendous. But we're talking about a market. Vegas setting a number. That's a different thing. That's people's eyeballs. What was the score of that game?

2:04:02Oh, well, look. The Chargers beat the Rams. Yeah, right, right, right. What do you think, Barry? I'm thinking back to the playoff game where Justin Herbert looked like he was going to beat the Jaguars. And they had that lead. and I'm wondering if the ghost of two years ago are going to come back and get in the head. That helps our cause. Yeah, get in the head of Justin Herbert and think, you know what? I can do it here. And then if things start slipping towards the end of the game, like, oh no, it's happening to me again. And Jaguars come back and take them down.

2:04:31Bill Simmons:I like that. Yeah, I do believe in that, the residue of these old skeleton games from the past in either way, right? But how far back in the past? Because two years ago, it's kind of borderline back in the past for ghosts, right? A lot of different faces. Different head coach, maybe. That could make a difference for the Chargers. Also, the Jaguars play weird games. You could get Jaguars plus three. They could lose 31 to 30. I just think this game has weird game written all over it, and especially the humidity and stuff. I don't think the Jaguars are that bad. You look at their schedule. You look at some of the...

2:05:06Bill Simmons:They played some really good teams. I don't trust them at all. I wouldn't ever want to lay points with them, I don't think, in any situation. But in this situation, I don't mind it. So we're staying away. Oh, no, we're not staying away. You want to put the Eagles minus one and a half against Detroit. You want that to be your pick potentially, House? Yeah. Potentially, yeah. I mean, but I, you know, we're definitely doing the Jags plus three. We're definitely doing the Browns plus seven and a half. We're definitely doing Minnesota minus two and a half. There's one more I really like. Yeah, and I think I agree with you.

2:05:43So, I mean, I do like the Eagles this week, but go ahead. I think we're in agreement on the other one that you like.

2:05:49Bill Simmons:I really like the Seahawks plus three against the Rams. I'm all in on the Seahawks team. Aaron Schatz. I don't know. Is he the creator of DVOA? The king of DVOA? What's his moniker? Whatever you give him. You're the podfather. You name him. DVOA. You dub it. Igniter. I don't know what it is. He has an army, though, now that does his bidding for him, right? If you look at his book, it's like this team was written by this guy and this one was written by that guy. He has the formula, but it seems like he might be getting a little too big for his britches on this. Billy Gill. Jax. Well, he was calling this the DVA ball.

2:06:29Oh, I like this.

2:06:31Bill Simmons:It's one against two. Very good. Seattle's one, the Rams are two. Well, he's allowed to do that since he invented it. the case for each side both teams are really good you can throw on the Rams I just think you can I've watched Mac Jones do it twice I watched it last week I felt like if they don't have that Juwan Johnson fumble or Jennings then there was that McCaffrey gets stoned on the fourth down but they were like right there just going back and forth with the Rams and that Niners offense I wouldn't call a juggernaut and I just think they can move the ball on them I think Either this is a close game or the Seahawks win.

2:07:10Bill Simmons:So I like that. I don't think the home field is going to matter that much because it's whatever, it's LA. The flip side, Billy. Darnold in a huge game, which we have not seen since the last two times we saw it, which was the last two games of last season when he shit the bed. Yeah. And it's hard to just be like, he's fine. He seems due to not shit the bed though, right? Like in law, you can't always shit the bed. At some point you run out of shit. He's not, not fine. I think he's fine. I mean, he's having a great year. Yeah. This, this is to your point, uh, an observation around San Francisco.

2:07:52I had that note as well. Um, it sets up in two ways to my mind for, for Donald to have success in the first place. Seattle doesn't try to run the ball. The Rams have a good run defense, but their secondary is super gettable. And you can go through beyond the San Francisco games and get there. The reason that I especially like this Darnold matchup, his deep ball is exquisite. And it was exquisite last year as well. And he gets rid of it fast. They're not having him stand back there. We just watched two consecutive games. Now, it was Washington and Arizona. but they had 28 points before anybody sat down with their popcorn.

2:08:34And people like Arizona's defense and they just shredded it. I'm one of them. Well, their secondary was banged up and they were on a short week. So we can try and excuse some of that for Arizona. Full week of Shahid.

2:08:45Bill Simmons:By the way, Shahid might be your answer, Billy. For the highlights? For the highlight guy. Okay. You just take like eight Shahid plays and you'd be like, is this what Gale Sayers was like in the 60s crossed with Jerry Rice? I think if I got like a Justin Fields highlight reel and I put it in a time capsule and had someone open it in like 40 years, they'd look at him like, wow, this was like, this guy was really good at the time and just don't show them anything else other than his scrambles. But it would be also 40 years from now. Like I think back. Don't show any passes. Yeah. Football. If I see like highlights from football 40 years ago, I'm like, wow, that is a terrible game.

2:09:23So I can't even imagine what football will look like 40 years from now where you're like, yeah, these people are completely unathletic. athletic. They're very slow. They can't make throws. What were these people watching back in the day?

2:09:33Bill Simmons:I've actually done this. I've watched quarters from... YouTube has entire games. And you're watching quarters from 1979. And it's just amazing to watch. First of all, the guys are much smaller than they are now. That's one of the first things that jumps out. And then the second thing that jumps out is everybody's just getting clobbered and highlighted. and the quarterback's going back to pass and just guys are diving at his legs and people are hitting from behind. And the quarterback's like just trying to get rid of the ball before he gets killed basically is all of these games. And they're like bizarre to watch.

2:10:09Do you feel worse for the bad players today that would have dominated an old era or the really good players of an old era that were paid like$10 ,000 a year? I feel worse for those guys. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

2:10:24Bill Simmons:Like, especially the, the got the seventies and early eighties NBA guys, they just have to be going nuts. Like the Bradley Beal contract. Like, can you imagine being, I don't know, pick anyone from 1977, like Dr. J who they carried the ABA. There's no way he ever made more than like, maybe like 2 million a year, you know? And he's watching like the Kevin, Kevin Durant's made almost$700 million or$600 million, something like that. Whatever it is, deserves it. Look at how much the league has made. It's fine. House is always pro-labor in front of players. He's pro-labor in the baseball dispute. He's already laid his flag down.

2:11:08Bill Simmons:Incorrect. Player side. What are we doing? Are you hoping for a holdout? Wait, did you like that one of Manfred's goons put out a hit on Bryce Harper? It's all starting. It really is like this next couple of months. It'd be a good podcast. because we've been trying to figure out how we could have a baseball podcast. And maybe the podcast should just be monitoring all the shenanigans that are about to happen. Hit pieces all over the place. It's going to be great. Seahawks were taken. Jags were taken. That leaves one spot. But we both like the Chiefs. We just don't like the hook. The Chiefs are three and a half in Denver.

2:11:49Bill Simmons:And I've just had it with Bo Nix. I just can't. He's not beating the Chiefs the way he's playing. There were multiple plays in that Thursday game when you could tell Herbstreet wanted to go really in on like, what the fuck is this guy doing? But he was like holding back. I just think he's a complete mess. I have a couple of Broncos fans in my life, and all of them are kind of like, if we can just get a good hour of him, they're already in that mindset. And the Chiefs need the game. That's the other thing. It's not like the Chiefs are 9-0. right? They're five and four. They're not even in one of the seven playoff teams.

2:12:25Bill Simmons:So I'm afraid of the hook. I wouldn't be on record. I'm not afraid of the hook. This is the chiefs coming off of the bye week going up against this, this completely incompetent offense. They will have spags knows how to scheme up against Bo next. I'm not worried about, about spags having the time that the single biggest thing that Denver enjoys is an unprecedented fourth quarter point differential. They're beating all of these garbage teams in the fourth quarter, right. The Eagles is the lone exception. They did a good job there. But I mean, I'm not rewarding them for the outcome against the Texans.

2:13:08They knocked the quarterback out. The guy still hasn't come back yet. No, I'm very suspicious of this Denver team. And I think the Chiefs are ready to come in and handle their business. How do you guys feel about Sean Payton? Because Sean Payton was the genius, obviously, with Drew Brees, right? And then he was supposed to be the quarterback fixer. And then it didn't happen with Russell Wilson. And then Bo Nix was his guy. He was okay last year, but he's not... Do you guys think Bo Nix is going to be a superstar quarterback? Probably not, but they have a great record. So is he a good coach or is he not a good coach?

2:13:43Bill Simmons:I was just talking to one of my Bronco fan friends, Dave, who's kind of like, I don't really fully understand this Peyton is a genius thing. I think the Bronco fans are starting to, he's had some weird calls, especially when was the Super Bowl, the Colts, like he's been dining off that onside kick call, which was in 2009. Like Entourage was on in 2009. Like it was a million years ago. I was year two of this podcast. But I think that some of the game management stuff with him is pretty strange. and I don't understand what, like some of the stuff they asked Bo Nix to do. It just seems like he can only do a couple things.

2:14:22Bill Simmons:Like he can roll out to the right and do a quick pass. They keep asking him to throw these deep passes and he just can't complete any of them. You know, I actually like their players. I like Franklin. I like Sutton. I like the running backs. They can block. Good tight ends. So I'm with you. I don't, so you're down on Peyton. It sounds like Billy. I just, yeah. I don't think he's like the genius savior that he was painted out to be, but at eight and two, it's hard to explain to people why he's not doing a good job. Right. I mean, considering where they were, this franchise was with Russell Wilson as their quarterback.

2:14:58And then he, he, he quickly showed Russell Wilson, the door, the Broncos made the playoffs. And now here they are once again, you know, at the top of the, of the AFC West, it's tough to challenge like the big picture stuff. Uh,

2:15:11Bill Simmons:even though we're talking about like the minutia. piece. The roster building, he's still really good at. I thought he did a great job with the draft picks, free agent signings. The team has an identity. He's really good at kind of puffing his chest up on behalf of the team, talking about we're a Super Bowl contender. He does a lot of it. Almost like he wants to give them the confidence. But then you watch some of the game management stuff, and that's why I think they could be in trouble with the Chiefs. So, House, you want to just lay the hook here. I have no problem with it, but I understand your reservation and it really does fly in the face of what we've watched all season long with these Broncos, which is pulling something out of their butt right at the end that, you know.

2:15:54They're the colon blow team of 2025.

2:15:57Bill Simmons:We could do Chiefs Moneyline with the Green Bay Moneyline, but then we have, we're banking on that weird Packers team. We could do Chiefs Moneyline with Houston plus two and a half in Tennessee. I don't want anything to do with that game. You want to stay you don't like Davis Mills, even though he saved our ass last week. That was it. That's the end of the road. You can't ask for anything more from Davis Mills. He saved our ass last week. That's it. Don't ask for anything more. So you're saying, Kat, we're at the blackjack table with Davis Mills and we have to get up and put in the chips. Yes.

2:16:28The cooler has come to the table. It's time to get up. Billy, you didn't have any Davis Mills trends, did you?

2:16:33Bill Simmons:No, I didn't. I didn't really look up Davis Mills. I'll look into that. Chiefs Moneyline Arizona plus nine and a half. that was another one that Arizona against the Niners. Fine with that. Fine with that one. Go ahead. Oh, you like that one. Oh yeah. Fine. I don't think that the Niners are going to win by margin. The card, this is a division game. Here's the one. So we can move the chiefs line one point, get away from the hook chiefs minus two and a half and put it with the Arizona getting 13 and a half against the Niners. And the Niners just like, they're starting defense. It's like, Hey, that's Kean Wade.

2:17:08Bill Simmons:He used to be in the Patriots. Like that. It's one of those defenses. every guy they have is somebody that's probably been on your team in the last two years so you like that one would you rather do that or just lay the hook house I'm fine with both and obviously that's not an answer well as a therapist you're going to have to pick a side here well maybe we ask Billy would you rather lay the hook with the Chiefs just say fuck it Chiefs would have to win by four points in Denver I feel like I'm not supposed to give my thoughts here because this is you guys working the situation out. No, we want your thoughts.

2:17:42Bill Simmons:We want your thoughts. Because we can also just stay away from this game. We have six choices. How strong are we feeling about it? Do the Chiefs plus, I mean, minus two and a half and Arizona plus 13 and a half. 49ers cannot win. The only way 49ers win by margin is if the Cardinals give them the ball. If there's like special team catastrophes, Brissette, you know, fumbles. Yeah, but that might happen.

2:18:11Bill Simmons:Why is Tennessee going to beat Houston? I just don't want anything to do with the Texans. We got the thing with the Texans. That's it. We need to be happy with it. Let them get stroud back. New coach Giants, anything? I like the Giants because of Jameis. I think Jameis has a Jameis game. I don't want to lay the points with Green Bay, but Green Bay isn't going to lose three straight games. We already talked about this. We got to stay away from Jameis. I don't trust Jameis. All right. Staying away. It's like when the wrong dealer comes in to the table and you're like, I don't trust that guy. All right.

2:18:50Bill Simmons:So we can either do Chiefs minus three and a half or Chiefs minus two and a half with Arizona plus 13 and a half. That fits under our minus one. That's what we're talking about. Those are two choices. We're still there. So pick. Those are the choices. You pick. I'll do the combo. I prefer the combo. Arizona plus 13 and a half, Chiefs minus two and a half. it's the sissy way out. I admit it. So Vikings, Browns, Seahawks, Jags, and then Chiefs Cardinals. We're stay, I think we stay away from Eagles Lions. You can, I'm fine. I've already bet the Eagles. I'm going to keep betting them. Okay. I also bet the Chiefs.

2:19:26I bet the Chiefs at minus three and a half. I'm fine with it, but we're trying to win here. Okay.

2:19:32Bill Simmons:All right. The ringer 107 is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. First one we are doing. I had the wrong line before. I thought it was Vikings minus three in Minnesota against the Bears. And then House reminded me before we started this part that it's actually minus two and a half. So that's even better. We get an extra half point. Vikings minus two and a half at home against the Bears. Do I trust J.J. McCarthy? Not totally. Do I trust Caleb Williams to burn us? Not really. Kitchen sink game for the Vikings. They have to have it. They're playing Green Bay and Seattle on the road next week. Anyway, Vikings minus two and a half to right the ship and keep their season alive.

2:20:10Bill Simmons:That's our first pick. Browns plus seven and a half at home against Baltimore. A pick that made Billy briefly recoil. And then by the time we went through it, he had decided to not have Lamar Jackson in his guillotine lineup this week. I'm easily swayed. Bad weather at Cleveland. House, you made the point. Cleveland at home is just like you almost, they shouldn't be called the Browns. Call them something else. Call them the Cleveland ass kickers. Browns plus seven and a half, and we're going to try to not pretend that Dylan Gabriel's the quarterback. Seahawks plus three against the Rams. I think the Seahawks are slightly better.

2:20:45Bill Simmons:This to me is a playoff game with playoff rules. I'm not sure, because now with the home field advantage, you get one and a half, right, if you're home. So the Rams are getting three. They're saying the Rams are better than the Seahawks. I just disagree. I think you can throw in the Rams. We didn't even talk about how good the Seahawks have been on the road for the entirety of Mike McDonald's tenure as a head coach. They are excellent on the road. By the way, they have two losses and should have won both of the games. So there you go. Jags plus three in Chargers against the Chargers in 78-degree weather in Jacksonville.

2:21:17Bill Simmons:Some trends Billy brought up about Herbert, power couples, that I think he can put up stats and we can still get our result. I love the plus three because I think the final score of this game will probably be one or two points. And either way, that's good for our bet. But I think the Jags can win this. I don't think the chargers can block at some point. It's going to come back and bite them. And then last but not least, we're going to take the chiefs. They're favored by three and a half. We're going to move it to two and a half. We're going to move at one point. And to do that, we need the juice from Arizona plus 13 and a half at their home, right?

2:21:53Bill Simmons:Against San Francisco. Yes. They're home. Yeah. That sounds great. Yeah. Let's do it. Gannon time. And that is under our minus one 20 threshold. So those are our five picks. Billy, any last thoughts? I think Seahawks pick's a good one, but not because of what you're saying. The Rams. Remember, alternate jerseys. Rams alternate jerseys, a guaranteed loss this week. Very fair. That was the Ringer 107 presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Billy, what'd you think? I think we made a lot of progress this week. I think that you guys are in a better place than you were when we started. I feel the same way.

2:22:29Bill Simmons:Excellent pick. Excellent lubricant. I feel closer to house. You can hear Billy. Billy's going to pop on different Ringer podcasts. Probably like this for a little while. You're in the college football tailgate show. Ringer tailgate. Yeah, check it out. Can you rank the hosts before we go? Ooh, wow. Okay. Your favorites? Oh, now I have to play favorites. Three to one? Sure. Oh, you want to do that? Yeah, let's do it that way. Three to one. Are we doing just Ringer tailgates three to one here? Yeah. All right. Just for your, not for the entirety of the podcast, but for your experience on the podcast yesterday.

2:23:05My experience on the podcast, Joel is an easy three, bottom of the barrel, I would say. Yeah, Joel's at the bottom. He's crazy. And this is like a big one, Tate and Van.

2:23:16Bill Simmons:Yeah, Van really sold you a couple of big belly laughs. Yeah, you know what? Like I told you, I'm easily swayed. So I'll put Tate at two and Van at one. Those are my power rankings for this week. That's good. You need a Vand LSU jersey up there to replace the Tua jersey. There we go. All right. House has to go. I got to go. Billy, pleasure. Great to see you guys. Thanks. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Billy. Thanks to Legs. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. And we are going to be back on Sunday night with Guest Alliance and a lot of good football games. Can't wait to talk about them.

2:23:52Bill Simmons:Enjoy the weekend.

2:23:59I don't have feelings with them.

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