The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

13:25Cousin Sal:But you know what's weird with this 11 plus win teams? like, what was it, two years ago? Was it two or three years ago where they had to win their last six to make the playoffs? Yeah. Like, they always just seem to find the way. It's just ridiculous how they do it. And, yeah, I don't know. The schedule, they almost always have a first-place schedule. It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat's schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots extra games, even with a first-place schedule, at Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh.

13:59Cousin Sal:I'd rather have the Pats games.

14:01Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's one of the big things people are discrediting the Pats with was how easy the schedule last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either.

14:08Cousin Sal:Right.

14:08Bill Simmons:It's like there's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody, but some people think it's like a top five easy schedule again.

14:17Cousin Sal:Yeah.

14:19Bill Simmons:They have five really hard road games. They only play three games indoors, the Bills. I always like when they're indoors. But the quarterbacks they go against, Drake made twice, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb, and Nix. Pretty tough. The best thing they have from a schedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second this year. Which I'm still, House, you believe in the net rest? You've always enjoyed it. Yeah, no, I think it matters for sure. I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression.

14:52Cousin Sal:Of all the metrics, I put net rest like third or fourth. I know they're supposed to be at the top, but turnover differential, that's way more important to me, like the plus minus on that. I don't know.

15:05Bill Simmons:You know what I like? You know what my advanced stats are? Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things. Really? I'm not convinced the Bills can stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. Yeah. And the schedule is harder. you're going under I am I'm going I'm a slight under I'm 10 it's not a lock I don't love it but I think their schedule is awful and they really can't afford an injury to Allen or Cook no doubt and I have real questions about DJ Moore you know because people are like DJ Moore why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore so two teams now that have been delighted to move off him

15:48Cousin Sal:he doesn't stretch the field for sure and that was the problem with the bills they didn't have like a burner right to get like yeah they're very low percentage the other thing to worry about with the bills is we talked about these quarterbacks who just stopped running when they turned 28 he turned 30 i think i just saw in may what if that

16:05Bill Simmons:stops like new dad too that's it yeah yeah dad turning 30 there's some not running anymore signs that the counter would be he's superhuman and unlike jake may where i'm terrified he's gonna to get hurt. Right. Allen, you're terrified the other guy's going to get hurt. I'm a slight under. I don't love it. I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10-win club. I have 11. New England Patriots, 10.5 is the over-under. Division plus 135.

16:35Bill Simmons:Stupefying to me that they have the same... That Buffalo is just much better for a division odd bet than the Pats. I don't get it. Super Bowl 17-1. Super Bowl 17-1. Number one seed, 8-1, 12-plus wins, plus 220. And if you want to short them, under 7-and-a-half is plus 380. My what if, talked about it on Tuesday. What if A.J. Brown is a 2007 Moss-like super boost for this team? We're not asking for five awesome seasons for him. Just give us one fuck you season. And it seems like he wants to do it.

17:09Cousin Sal:There's a world where, yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to A.J. Brown. And what was his over-under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12-plus, it's ridiculous odds.

17:22Bill Simmons:Their deep threat last year was Booty, who I really liked, and I thought Houston made a smart deal with him. We traded him for a seventh-round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Diggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. And then I wouldn't trust one other guy in the team.

17:40Cousin Sal:I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it, the ultimate regression team. They played Alcorn State 14 times last year. They're going to go 3-14. And I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better, on paper at least, than they were last year. They're definitely better talent-wise than they were last year. With a record with fewer wins. Like with four fewer wins. I think that's a definite possibility. Well, they went 14-3.

18:06Bill Simmons:So if they have three less wins, they're still 11-6 and hitting this over. A couple things just to, I don't think, get mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule.

18:14Cousin Sal:they still have Drake man a rookie deal just the biggest advantage you can have in football right

18:19Bill Simmons:now if they're not going to use the money to then give Christian Gonzalez a top five cornerback you know for some reason the low volume crafts history of uh I don't want to say cheapness so I'll just say cheapness yeah um his history of cheapness uh pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here and they always seem to have 50 60 million of open money and money that they can push but they never actually seem to spend it these owners are hurting you don't understand

18:48Cousin Sal:some of them are spending only 140 dollars on right you know oh my goodness like go sell five

18:54Bill Simmons:percent of the team for one billion dollars right the team's probably worth 10 right um but so the gonzalez thing makes me nervous but they have drake made a rookie deal they are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach oc and dc from last year so they actually have continuity my fears are because the O-line is going to be better Will Campbell is healthy now

19:17Cousin Sal:we got the kid from Utah

19:18Bill Simmons:they have a little depth they brought in Byard from the Bears a little safety veteran guy in the back the reasons to short them you mentioned the regression the Vrabel scandal is that going to have any sort of carry over to how he performs this season I have no idea and then the Gonzalez contract makes me nervous. How about this? I have two words for you.

19:42Cousin Sal:Maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? What's cover six? Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60 % against Drake maybe, and it was effective. It's essentially taking away. It's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under, oh, read about cover six because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against... Oh, they did the thing.

20:09Bill Simmons:They're rushing three or four, but dropping everyone back.

20:12Cousin Sal:And the Bulls did it in their second regular season game against them. And it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this.

20:18Bill Simmons:I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Drake Bay and last year's Patriots.

20:24Cousin Sal:Yeah, I wonder if anyone else would pick up on that.

20:26Bill Simmons:Well, you know what's going to happen this year. A.J. Brown will just run down the field and get open, and then he'll throw it down. He's going to say goodbye to the six. And they got Dobbs, too. I mean, A.J. Brown and Dobbs versus what they had last year. It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the second or third round, Eli Raritan, who's this beast blocker. And they have just more options than they did last year with lineups.

20:53Cousin Sal:Notre Dame, yeah, the big guy.

20:54Bill Simmons:I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. And they play the following shit QBs. Rodgers, Cousins, Murray, Geno twice, Willis twice. so you figure with Buffalo in the past that's four wins against the Jets and it's offense it's just that was the hard part with the bills anyway I'm uh I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots not a lock though over they have enough pressure over 10 and a half over 10 and a half wins yeah I'm going under 10 and a half to 10 I think the bills have 11

21:26Cousin Sal:the Patriots have 10 okay and I am not I flip that I have the pats at 11 and the bills at 10 I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. I mean, you and Hensch. Did you make money from the Seahawks at least? I did. That I'll acknowledge. Okay. But, I mean, you guys tore. He made it in the third last time, and Dak Prescott was like, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to going to Six Flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top, and then you're on the whatever, free fall, and you see the drop, and you shit your pants, and you come back down to the bottom.

22:00Cousin Sal:You can only play who's in front of you.

22:02Bill Simmons:I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams.

22:05Cousin Sal:But he got scared. He got very, very scared in the Super Bowl. I don't think he was healthy. I know you keep saying that.

22:11Bill Simmons:I think if they lose to the Chargers in round one. In round one? Yeah, last year. Oh, last year. Most recently. They go 14-3. They lose to the Chargers. Everybody says, oh, they're young. Oh, they added. Oh, look out for this team. Right. But the further they went, it actually makes people not like them as much for this year.

22:29Cousin Sal:Yeah. Well,

22:30Bill Simmons:I feel the same way about them as I did with the Bears. I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. I don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they ended up last year, but I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and May in these rookie deals and, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have. So, I hope they take advantage of it. I mean,

22:52Cousin Sal:we're completely going to discount, we're going to get to the Texans later, but two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs.

23:00Bill Simmons:I'm not discounting it. I really, 95 % sure he was hurt, and that's where I've landed. I watched him all year, and he didn't look remotely.

23:09Cousin Sal:He said today he wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw it. He said in an interview, he was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. I wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses.

23:17Bill Simmons:Also, our left tackle was playing on one leg. Yeah. That's bad. New York Jets, over five and a half. Division 18 to one. Playoffs 7 to one. 10 plus wins 8 to 1. Last year, they were 3 and 14. They're 6 to 1, have the worst record this year. Sal, they made two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010. Yeah, way back when with Rex Ryan. I mean, two straight. I think there's been, in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone back to back, dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. and half of those teams are like when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row.

24:00Bill Simmons:Right. And the Chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four. And then? They've not made the playoffs since. Not even a wild card.

24:13Cousin Sal:Surely they've come close.

24:14Bill Simmons:It's a 14-team playoffs every year in a 32-team league. Wow. It's basically 45 % chance. Yeah.

24:22Cousin Sal:Never did it. Oh, New York, small market. How are they supposed to?

24:25Bill Simmons:By what if for you? What if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season? What if they're just competitive enough that they go 7-10 and now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple games, get their fans excited, and then all of a sudden the merry-go-round stops and there's four quarterbacks available, they get none of them.

24:47Cousin Sal:Do you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine, they're okay with tanking? To me, it's like I cannot believe that guy. is back. And look, I was rooting for him and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa only to lose. But this is a defensive specialist that they brought in and they did not have one interception over 17 games.

25:10Bill Simmons:And it seemed like they quit as the last month of the season. That was one of how many teams just felt like that last month like they were just like I'm ready to go home.

25:19Cousin Sal:You can't have the defense quit on you if you're Aaron Glenn. It's like that 92 years no one's had no interception. He's a specialist. And they brought him back. It's like you hiring a painter and the guy comes out the first day and paint your dog and the hedges. And you're like, all right, we'll just come back tomorrow. You'll hit some walls. It'll be fine. I don't understand.

25:39Bill Simmons:Well, apparently he had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC and the DC. Hired Joe House's guy, Frank Rake. That's not my guy. Your guy. You said he was the best coach at a conference three years ago. and never said it. He 100 % said it. I do remember something about that. He definitely said it. We joked about it and then texted it and he got fired in like week 11 in his first season. Not House.

26:05Cousin Sal:Frank Reich. Frank Reich. Yes, yeah.

26:06Bill Simmons:That House of M.S. survived. The good news for the Jets, they loaded up in the draft.

26:13Cousin Sal:Three first round picks. The only team, right?

26:15Bill Simmons:And they had the 50th pick. Yeah. So they had four of the top 50. The bad news is the reason they had two of those three first rounders is because they traded their two best players on defense for the first rounders. Got to factor that in. But they are going to be better, and their offensive line is going to be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line, maybe. Sal, I have them as a slide over. You have six wins? Right now I have them at 7-10, just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere.

26:50Cousin Sal:I had 6-11. The schedule's kind to them for their first eight are against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders. So they could be four and four at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story. Well, it's funny.

27:02Bill Simmons:Titans is week one. Yeah. And then they go Packers, at Lions, at Bears. It's the Robert Salaghan. And if the Titans were good, you'd be like, oh, that could be 0 and 4 and now what do you do? Do you fire Aaron Glenn? Do you say fuck it? Now let's go for the number one pick. But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason and I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans.

27:23Cousin Sal:We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans-Jets game, I think.

27:30Bill Simmons:Well, we talked about this. Let's not let ourselves do that. We talked about this, tried to remember it. Midway through the year, we were like, let's remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans-Jets game is a candidate. What could be the dumbest result? I looked through them.

27:54Cousin Sal:But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with Geno, so Geno went from Seattle, good, to the Raiders, just pathetic. Jets offensive line is probably somewhere in between there. And probably enough to win six games.

28:12Bill Simmons:Geno was an outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block for him and he was running for his life. So he's either washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play Malik Willis twice, Cleveland, Cam Ward, Cousins, Brissette, Kyler. Yeah. Maybe can win six, seven of those. I have them at seven and ten. I don't feel great about it. We both have the Jets over.

28:36Cousin Sal:My God. I know. I just think it's too low.

28:38Bill Simmons:I mean, what were they last year? They're three and 14, but they traded their two best guys midway through the season. Yeah. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of the craziest things ever, not having an interception. Okay, Miami Dolphins is the last one. They have a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mack. That's it. He's done spinning the discs in Miami. The clubs are quiet today. He landed on his feet. Yeah. He's clubbing it out here. Clubbing it out in San Diego. Miami was 7-10 last year. The over-under is 3-1.

29:20Cousin Sal:I had to double-check that. I'm like, oh, yeah, you're right. 7-10. 15-1 to make the playoffs.

29:25Bill Simmons:Worst record, they're plus 220. Good. If you want to zag and bet on them to go 8-9, it's plus 700. I'm going to list their highest-paid players for you this year. Have you seen this graphic? They're somewhere else. Tua,$55.4 million. Not on the team. Tyreek,$28.2. Not on the team. Waddle,$23.2. Doesn't play for them. Jalen Ramsey,$20.9. Not on the team. Fitzpatrick,$13. Nope. Zach Seeler,$11.4. On the team. We got one. Welcome. Bradley Chubb,$11. Nope. And Armstead,$10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying.

30:09Cousin Sal:You said Waddle?

30:09Bill Simmons:to yeah yeah seven of the eight are not on the team yeah they're paying seven of those guys not

30:14Cousin Sal:to play six players 162 million dollars the guys are not playing malik will it they're paying malik

30:20Bill Simmons:something i'm just i just gave you eight guys malik is what was he 20 but they could spread it out oh yeah okay yeah um oh man i so the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarterback situation on one of the top three cleveland minnesota miami and Willis will actually be pretty good. They're bringing in halfway for the defense. And then could there be some sort of, could they just be this funky run team that five times a year, they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front seven and sneak to five wins. I don't think they want to. It's a problem.

30:56Cousin Sal:They don't. They did the bare minimum. They extended Devon Achan, right? Superstar player.

31:02Bill Simmons:Right, who they could trade in October.

31:03Cousin Sal:And they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there. Malik Willis, who, did he walk out on practice yesterday? Is that a story? Like, you know, and he takes sacks, this guy. So that was a story.

31:14Bill Simmons:He got so frustrated with the offense that he left. Um, their wide receivers. I was just going to hit this. Go ahead. Well, the initial list of who their wide receivers were to those guys, I don't think are the wide receivers anymore. Who is it? It's Chris Bell.

31:31Cousin Sal:Uh, yes, he is out. Yeah. Well, who are the receivers? Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. I think two of those guys have been nudged out. I don't even... I think their depth chart... Hold on. I checked the depth chart. Let me see the... Well, regardless. It's the... Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Texas Tech. Okay, yeah. Two's fourth. Chris Bell's... Yeah. Yeah, it's garbage. It's rough. I don't know. You know, again, you don't want to give anyone two wins, but very surprised if this team had more than three.

32:03Bill Simmons:Offensive line is actually weirdly competent. I wouldn't say it's great, but it's solid. Yeah. secondary is all time. Like, they traded Waddle basically for that Chris Johnson, the cornerback. And if he's not good, I don't even know who's covering receivers for them. And it's not like the pass rush is going to be better either.

32:22Cousin Sal:The Jets' futility, what, 2009, 10, 25 years since the Dolphins won a playoff game. And on the season ticket this year, it actually says 20. They crossed off, it says 26. Like, don't even expect anything this year. Jesus. That's how it is. House loves Bobby Sloick, though.

32:37Bill Simmons:A lot of Chop Robinson. that they have to push. This is a breakout year for Chop. Yeah. Yeah, Bobby Slug. Here's the other weird thing about them, and this is why I think there's a real case for the under. They play a lot of good quarterbacks. They have the Drake May-Josh Allen combo four times. Purdy, Mahomes, Burrow, Goff, Caleb, Love, and Herbert. This is with the worst secondary in the league. Oh, my God. So this is going to be one of those situations where it's like, oh, my QB's playing the Dolphins this weekend. Right. Six of the first nine against playoff teams. With all that said, I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying they're going to go 4-13.

33:15Bill Simmons:No, I want to talk it out. Oh, I thought we just did. It's either 3 or 4. They're favored in one game against the Jets. Could they do like a funky running thing three times? Yes, and it's still an under. Three total. 3-14 is under three and a half wins.

33:35Cousin Sal:I think it's a battle to the grave with the Cardinals for that first pick.

33:39Bill Simmons:I think you're right. I think if you're going to go over with the Jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the Dolphins. Right. It's a good way to think about this.

33:47Cousin Sal:13 draft picks, though. So maybe in a couple of years, it'll figure out.

33:51Bill Simmons:At Raiders, at Niners, home Chiefs, at Vikings, home Bengals. Basically, the Raiders is a must-win game if you're going over. I think if they lose that game, it's a wrap. You're not getting the over on that house. Give us your AFCs thoughts. So I'm in lockstep with the cousin, Sal, um, the Buffalo bills haven't lost. Uh, well, I'll say it the other way around have won at least 11 games since 2018. So if Josh Allen's the quarterback and he plays, then the Buffalo bills are going to win 11 games. I really am intrigued by this new England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11 win team, but I I'm going to sit tight.

34:34I want them to start the season off one and three. They are at Seattle. They're home against Pittsburgh. They're at Jacksonville. They're at Buffalo. If the Patriots come out one and three, I am the wind totals that will be available at that point of the season, four weeks in market calendar right now, get in there and jump on Patriots. 10 wins. He's still injured.

34:55Cousin Sal:You could see you can't, he can't throw. He can't rear back. That's what we're going to hear. One and three.

34:59Bill Simmons:That feels like two and two. Okay. I don't disagree. I'm rooting for one and three. The greatest thing about that, if you had the Pats over, if they somehow won the Seattle game, you'd be like, oh, my God. Right. That was the guaranteed loss of all of these. Your best price is going to come from them being a little bit, you know, where people have questions. So you have Buffalo for the Division II. I do. Yeah. Jets over? Jets over. Yeah. The Jets have eight new starters on defense. The Jets went out and got Minka Fitzpatrick and David Onyata and all these guys. Crazy. I kind of liked what they did.

35:31Yeah. There's, I won't name names,

35:34Bill Simmons:but there's a couple Jets fans in my life, not fantasy. There's more? Like, weirdly optimistic about this Jets team. I think it's kind of hit the, you know, if we can just get Gino back to the Gino from two years ago. I do like the tight end Sadiq. I think he's going to be good. Yeah. Oregon kid. Yeah. But we'll see. All right. So, NFC, I'm sorry, AFC, no locks for us in this. Nah. you have Buffalo, New England. I have New England, Buffalo. And if you do either of those with Jets three, Miami four, I mean, the higher money thing would be to do the Pats. Go Pats, Bills, Jets, Miami is probably at least like five to one.

36:18Cousin Sal:Yeah, it's probably five to one, six to one range. We'll do this next week, but Jets third place, I think, is even odds. Really?

36:27Bill Simmons:Yeah.

36:27Cousin Sal:Isn't that good? That's pretty good. You have to root for them just enough. All right.

36:32Bill Simmons:That's it for the AFC East. Coming back with the AFC North after this. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel, where the football season begins. Every team is undefeated. That's right, even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs, maybe even lifts the trophy. FanDuel, they're right in there with it. You can bet on all of it. You can use your NFL futures reward stack for an even bigger payout. Fandle giving everyone five 50 % PBTs. That's right. Five can only be used from Thursday, eight 27 until end of the day, Monday, eight 31. So unlock and use them before it's too late.

37:11Bill Simmons:Take some advice from me and the cause. Check out our favorite futures picks. Get your bets in today on Fandle. Visit Fandle.com slash BS to get started. 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC, Kentucky, Wyoming restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. AFC North, Baltimore Ravens. They're over under us. 10 and a half. Some juice on the over. Division, plus 105. Super Bowl, 11 to 1. Playoffs, minus 300. Number one seed, plus 410. 12 plus wins, plus 125. Under 9 and a half wins, plus 200.

37:56Bill Simmons:They were 8-9 last year. My question for you, what if Jesse Minter is a massive upgrade over Zombie John Harbaugh? What do we do then? Oh, that's a good one. Zombie John. Zombie John. He's just like, I'm still coaching. The New York Giants. Yeah. Zombie John. Zombie John gave that New York Giants speech. Oh, man. You play for the New York Giants.

38:25Cousin Sal:why did they clip that out I don't know they put that on their social media you know how our wives have

38:32Bill Simmons:friends that they'll send the Instagram photo they're thinking about posting to make sure that they look okay and then you have to get the approval it should be that way for the football teams with these social clips there should have been somebody in the Giants like no we're not posting that

38:46Cousin Sal:you gave a pep talk to the ringer staff and like everyone was just like looking at their phone you would fire the social media person

38:51Bill Simmons:this is the ringer we work for the ringer

38:58Cousin Sal:it was like a Will Ferrell speech very weird I drive a Don Stratus you play for the Giants

39:07Bill Simmons:and now he's gone I have thoughts on this but I'll throw it to you and the Ravens what if Jesse Minter's good

39:14Cousin Sal:yeah that would help and they have like a 29 year old offensive coordinator so it all helps Declan Doyle Declan Doyle.

39:25Bill Simmons:Great name. That sounds like a Showtime show.

39:27Cousin Sal:Yeah.

39:28Bill Simmons:It's like new, new from Showtime. Declan Doyle. Did you...

39:32Cousin Sal:He's a cop on the edge. Yeah, Declan Doyle. Get that badge. They signed Trey Hendrickson. You say there's no karma in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the disabled Raiders. The Ravens do that shit every year. Yeah. This year it hurt. They got Trey Hendrickson. But maybe the karma is they lose Tyler Lindenbaum. to free agency, and now they have a center out.

39:56Bill Simmons:Yeah. So that's tough. Third stringer.

39:58Cousin Sal:Yeah, you always talk about it, right? The second, right. So the funniest move they did was extending, and I know you like this, the Zay Flowers, and they gave him just a ton of money. And, like, to me, I think the litmus test is they're treating this guy like a superstar, but if NBC was, like, promoting next week's game, like Baltimore against, you know, the Chargers, it would be Herbert. And if they put Zay Flowers up, would you chuckle? If you chuckle, then it's a terrible signing giving all this money. I think we're at that chuckle point. So I don't know.

40:33Bill Simmons:It's like an NBA with the last guy introduced in the starting lineup. So if I'm like, ooh, yikes. There's a reason. Who's going to be the last guy for the Wiz this year, House? Trey Young or Anthony Davis? AJ DeBansa. What are you talking about? He's going to be the last guy over Trey Young? he's the most exciting player as the number one draft pick. That's what I would do. I don't think that's happening. Some of you guys.

40:58Cousin Sal:Lamar, since his calf injury, what was it, right? He 25 yards per game rushing. And that's big. We talk about these guys all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever that is. Really shocking when you look

41:10Bill Simmons:at the pro reference, pro football reference, the career and watching the attempts and the yards. Right.

41:15Cousin Sal:And I hate to harp on it, but it's big. I mean, on third and four, that was really a lot of times their only outlet to continue to drive. Trenches were bad. 26th and pass blocking. 28th and sacks on the other side.

41:29Bill Simmons:Offensive line is the thing that probably worries me the most. Yeah. I don't think it's going to be bad, but I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out. Maybe top three easiest schedule in the league. First seven.

41:45Cousin Sal:Early, yeah.

41:46Bill Simmons:First seven, it's like, how are you not six and one after these first seven? I talked to Mallory last night for help for the AFC North. At Colts, Saints, at Cowboys, Titans, at Falcons, at Browns, Bengals.

41:57Cousin Sal:Well, the Cowboys isn't real, but.

41:58Bill Simmons:Yeah. It should be five and two minimum. Those are some of the worst teams in the league.

42:05Cousin Sal:And they were two and five to start last year, right?

42:08Bill Simmons:Good QBs they play, which is another thing I love to look at. This was huge for the Pats last year because they played no good QBs. Burrow twice, Dak, Josh Allen, Lawrence, Herbert. That's it. basically seven out of the 17 games. I'm all in on Jesse Minter. And my favorite thing to do, I talked about this in the part one, is the coach that can come in and do Mike Vrabel, especially if they're following the shitty coach. Mike Vrabel following Mayo or Dan Quinn following, who's the crappy guy? Ron Rivera? Yeah, Riverboat Ron. And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that's worth six wins. We didn't really have that situation this year with the new coach hires.

42:52Bill Simmons:But I think the two new coach hires that were the significant ones, this is one of them. Because it's like, oh, John Harbaugh was good. He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable with the Chargers last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs anyone did. Their defense was kind of old. They had injuries. And it just didn't seem to matter. They were flying around. And I was one over. Whereas, you know, I overreact to social media videos in August and quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies.

43:25Bill Simmons:That video of him singing Eminem as the whole locker room is going nuts. I was like, I've seen enough. The jury's in. Should Harbaugh have tried that with the Giants? You have the Harbaugh thing on one where he's doing Will Ferrell. And then you have Jesse Minter singing for his team and they're all fucking losing their minds. 12 and five. I'm way over. Way over. So is this a lock? This is a lock. Wow.

43:52Cousin Sal:Can I say this is, I'm jealous of this take now? Yeah. If I could change. You can take it. Take it right now. I'm locked into 10. We're all friends. No, no, not after this. So you're going under? I'm going 10. Well, it's a good year. It's 10. It's the playoffs.

44:04Bill Simmons:And then 12 plus wins. There's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 125. I mean, AFC South and NFC South are the divisions. The quarterbacks I mentioned. And I'm jealous. And honestly, if you read between the lines, you talk to like Mallory and I were talking about it last night. The Ravens fans was that Harbaugh was driving to the airport status for everybody. It seems like it was the case for Lamar too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar. I think this season really like, oh, you're counting me out. Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost this fucking clown Harbaugh.

44:39Bill Simmons:I'm not saying he said this, but I think he's going to have a little, little ump to him. Derrick Henry, oh, you're counting me out. You think I'm old. You think I can't do this again. It's just a fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team. Interesting. Jesse Minner proving that he belongs with the big boys. We have a new coach every year that crushes it. Just, it's a lock. I think he's the coach.

44:58Cousin Sal:All right. I mean, honestly, the counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against. Like, what if their running game is non-existent with Lamar getting older and choosing not to run? Derrick Henry, finally, the touch is catching up with him. But other than that, you're probably right. Week five at Atlanta and their shitty defense.

45:20Bill Simmons:Yeah. Collinsworth. I think they're going to have to hose them down. That's an NBC game. Oh, Mike. Mike, I need the Lamar. Anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back. Come on.

45:33Cousin Sal:Come on. I mean, Arthur Blank could have signed this guy. Arthur Blank passed him nine times. Get his camera on Arthur Black in the luxury box. Just beating himself up.

45:44Bill Simmons:So win that game 52-10, and then the next week lose to the Browns at Cleveland because that happens every year. I'm really hard, aggressive over Ravens.

45:55Cousin Sal:7-12 is tough. Cincy, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Chargers. Yep. Panthers, Texans. So five playoff teams in a row plus Cincy.

46:03Bill Simmons:Cincy, the sexy team du jour in the AFC East. Sorry to say du jour and make you hungry, house. As here's du jour, he thinks of soup. He thinks of the specials. Yes. What special house when the waiter comes over? What's the number one thing where you're like, oh, you mean like it's not on the menu? Here's what tonight's special is. When he's talking about steaks, fish. We've covered this territory because it is special. The veal chop. Oh, we have a veal chop tonight. We're going to do it with a little Marsalis. What if they gave you the pounded veal millionaire? Bill Chap Millionaires. Phenomenal.

46:40Bill Simmons:That's a blind order for me. Bill Chap Millionaires at a nice restaurant. It's like, great. That sounds awesome.

46:47Cousin Sal:I almost always tune the specials out.

46:50Bill Simmons:You do? Why? You've already decided. You're like the Ravens.

46:53Cousin Sal:I've already decided on 10 and 7. I don't want to hear your opinions. What's your track record with specials? Mine's like 10%. With that in mind.

47:01Bill Simmons:It is special to the restaurant. The chef's like, I was excited to make this. You got to pretend.

47:04Cousin Sal:you know yeah but you're not even what do I care he almost definitely has different tastes than I do

47:11Bill Simmons:well Cincy is the sexy team du jour yep their over is up to 10 and a half inexplicably they were 6 and 11 last year minus 198 for the playoffs plus 165 for the division 21 for the Super Bowl you can super short them and go under 7 and a half for them at plus 420 which which which guy in Ringer Wiseguys is going to do that It feels debundo-ish. Yeah. We've already covered this. The hard, all that are shorter.

47:41Cousin Sal:Yeah, I can't remember. Yeah. 420, really?

47:45Bill Simmons:420 is... That's under 7 and 10. So that's a five-week borough injury, basically. They could do that. They could do that. My what if for you. Never mentioned in all of the we love the Bengals, regression, schedule's so much easier, Joe Burrow. What if the Bengals can't block for Joe Burrow again. Because I don't think they're going to be able to.

48:08Cousin Sal:They didn't do it. First of all, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse than their offensive line, which can never protect Joe Burrow. And they decided to put all their assets into defense. All the picks. But with part of the logic being,

48:22Bill Simmons:if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for Joe. He wouldn't have to be on the field. It's like, right. Does that make it easier for Joe? He's still running for his life when you run plays for him. How is that easier?

48:35Cousin Sal:I would rather have an offensive line. It's bad, but they did score 37 back-to-back games and lost both. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right. Yeah, he's played six years. He's made it to the finish line three of those six or whatever.

48:50Bill Simmons:I honestly wasn't playing that well last year before he went down.

48:53Cousin Sal:Yeah.

48:54Bill Simmons:He gave up 492 points last year.

48:56Cousin Sal:The Super Bowl year, he wasn't his best year either. I want to talk about Zach Taylor because this is the hottest of hot seats. He's number one hot seat, right? If this is hot ones, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon? Yeah, whatever the atomic one. One of the last two or three.

49:12Bill Simmons:Yeah, Torchbearer. The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap, they would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches. Yeah. Like, how much extra is this going to cost? Well, what happens if you promote an assistant in the middle of the year? Yeah, right. The interim is an assistant, and they just promote the assistant.

49:28Cousin Sal:Now, he had excuses. I don't think he has them this year. If Burrow makes it or not, I think this is it. I wrote, it's funny you said hot seat,

49:34Bill Simmons:I wrote make or break coach this year. Sure. Just like, this is it. There's no way he comes back if they don't make it. Also, Burrow has not made the playoffs since 2022. And I do wonder if there's a world where Mahomes doesn't get concussed in that playoff game, which he clearly got concussed, and then they left him in. They don't even make it that far. To cost the three of us a lot of money.

49:55Cousin Sal:Yeah.

49:56Bill Simmons:And also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. and Joe Burrow has never been in a Super Bowl, Mahomes just makes it again. Like, do we talk about him a little differently? Right. He's just become Dak Prescott at that point.

50:07Cousin Sal:Maybe.

50:08Bill Simmons:Way better pass rush, easy schedule, and... Easy Patriots-esque schedule. That's about it.

50:16Cousin Sal:Extra games at Miami, at Washington, home for KC. No short week games, right? They finally took a center in the fourth round, but otherwise it was all defense. They signed Dexter Lawrence. They get him from the Giants. They signed and traded him, basically.

50:32Bill Simmons:They gave up the 10th pick in the draft for him.

50:35Cousin Sal:Right, that was it. So the first pick was a second-round pick. This guy has historically short arms, they say. Cassius Howell, the edge. But he's supposed to also help. Third easiest strength of schedule.

50:47Bill Simmons:I have their roster at 17 points. Burrow is 8 of those points. He has an 8. Josh Allen was a 9. Burrow was an 8. Chase was a 5. highest receiver points you can get in my system, five. Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys. I had the offensive line as a minus one. You could talk me into a minus two for them. And Lawrence has three points, and no other guy's got points. And this is like, I take the player ranking thing seriously. I don't know if it always works, but I read all the lists. Like ESPN has a great list, PFF. They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins.

51:27Bill Simmons:I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them the last year. I don't really get the case.

51:32Cousin Sal:I don't normally bite on Cincinnati. I'm always like, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over. I probably wish I could reverse what I did, you know, you did with the Ravens and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10.5 at plus 105. That's their number? Yeah, 10.5. Yeah.

51:48Bill Simmons:They play, the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, Mahomes, Lawrence, and Daniels. and then they move into the Stroud Rodgers two times Baker Shuck Bryce and Daniel Jones and his one leg and then they play Watson twice Willis Cam Ward and Tua slash Penix I think what I'm looking

52:10Cousin Sal:at giving them I went I went 10 wins

52:12Bill Simmons:even though I don't even like the team I just feel like they're gonna score 30 points 10 times against the shitty

52:18Cousin Sal:team right yeah and you know take it for what it's worth favored in 15 games. Yeah. 15 and 17 years. I think that matters.

52:25Bill Simmons:Yeah. For sure. 11 wins seems rich for me considering A, they can't block. B, burrow injury potential. C, how many times, how many games did Chase and Higgins play together? Right. I always feel like one of them is banged up or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. So I don't know. 10 wins seems, the under seems safe because if there's an injury to Chase or an injury to burrow or an injury to Lawrence. Like, any of those three guys, you could say this about a lot of teams, but especially this team, like, they have no room for error with their star players. So, under for me.

53:01Cousin Sal:Do you know, like, Flacco coming in in relief? No.

53:05Bill Simmons:Pittsburgh Steelers, their over-under is 8.5. 5-1 for the division. A couple of ringer-wise guys kicked the tires on that one a little bit. Playoffs, plus 160. 10-plus wins is plus 180. I would do that over playoffs because I think it's going to be 10 in the AFC. Under 5.5 wins is plus 380. A couple what-ifs here. What if Rodgers cannot make it through the season at age 42? Whoa, whoa. Bombshell. Whoa, what if? Is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over? Oh. The preseason was pretty impressive for our guy Drew.

53:44Cousin Sal:Yeah. Yeah. And I don't, yeah, I don't, I don't feel,

53:49Bill Simmons:I feel like they could go nine and eight, even if Rogers doesn't finish the season. What are your thoughts on that?

53:54Cousin Sal:That's interesting. I do have been playing over three and a half games at the line I made up in my head. I don't know that this recarnation of, you know, Mike McCarthy. And I don't know if this, this isn't the offense he signed up for this guy throws 30 % of his passes beyond behind or at the line of scrimmage.

54:15Bill Simmons:And they're trying to stretch it out.

54:17Cousin Sal:Yeah, we could cry. I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right? Like they were 10 and seven. To say they're going to regress two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomlin when they officially go eight, nine, because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's all Rodgers. Thanks for coming back, but I will not take the fifth as I review his putrid, putrid stats here. They're 32nd in success rate, 33rd in air yards, 28th, 3rd in outs, dead last completion under pressure. There you go. I said it. I feel patriotic.

54:53Bill Simmons:I think I either rooted for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had the good game against all the times it happened.

54:59Cousin Sal:Yeah.

55:00Bill Simmons:I felt like I was 0 for 6 with them.

55:01Cousin Sal:How lucky could they get? Burrow was out. The Ravens started 1-5, 2-5. The Browns were the Browns. There's some injuries on the defense.

55:08Bill Simmons:Yeah. There's a Week 13 game. They go Broncos, Black Friday at home. And then the next week, Sunday Night Football against the Texans. And Tomlin's going to be there, obviously. Or it's a Tomlin game. And that is the worst possible defense for a 42-year-old. Oh, yeah. Aaron Rodgers. I just feel like they'll be cutting the Tomlin. Kind of be like... All right. So I mentioned the coach's thing when we were talking about Minter. about how this year it's weird with the coaching changes because the ones that I think are going to be significant aren't necessarily the ones you would think. Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh.

55:50Bill Simmons:I think my other what if would be, what if Tomlin was kind of washed the last couple of years? Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense. Like I had in my player rankings, five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven, right? Especially if they can revive TJ. why, like, special team's pretty good. Jamel Dean. Their front seven's going to be awesome. Yeah. Really good. And him, and they got Pittman, which I think was important. They got Dowdle, who I've always liked. I feel like they've set Rodgers up better

56:22Cousin Sal:than they did last year. Yeah, this team's good.

56:24Bill Simmons:I actually think they're pretty talented. You're going to go nine, ten wins? What are you doing? Well, here's the thing with McCarthy. He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harbaugh and Peyton. They all won a Super Bowl. They're all around the same with the wins. If you hid the names and just looked at the thing, you wouldn't know who was who. I just feel like this is 10 and 7. And maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is going to be way better. He's good at offense. You had him in Dallas.

56:56Cousin Sal:I know.

56:57Bill Simmons:Their offense did shit.

57:00Cousin Sal:Our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage, though. True. Do I have to take you through those numbers again? I get it. And I know they get a wide receiver Alabama they're excited about and all that, but I just don't like the schedule at all. I feel like they have to go 6-3 before that mid-stretch of Cincinnati, Philly, Denver on Black Friday at Jacksonville and Baltimore. That is crushing in that middle of it. We've 10-15 this stuff. Yeah, 10-15. That's it. Cleveland twice, Atlanta, Jones, Shuck, Bryce, and Ward.

57:29Bill Simmons:So they have seven bad QB games, basically, which is okay.

57:34Cousin Sal:I think they're collapse-proof, though, pretty much, because they knuckleball their way to wins. They win these clownish games. So that's why I have them at 8-9.

57:43Bill Simmons:Zero indoor games for the Steelers. Outdoors for four-plus months. I think that's fine. I think that's good for them, though. Yeah. They beat the Falcons week one. At Patriots, Bengals, at Browns, home Colts. I genuinely think that's 4-1.

58:02Cousin Sal:That's what they're going to have to be. with those other games we mentioned.

58:05Bill Simmons:The problem for them is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have week eight, November 1st, Browns, Thursday night football. I'm already predicting that's one of the five weirdest games of the year. Yeah, that'll be decided by something bizarre. I like this team, though. I think this is the 10-win team, not the Bengals.

58:28Cousin Sal:Wow. You think the outdoor games help?

58:30Bill Simmons:Although I had the Bengals 10 wins, too. I think it'll come down to the matchups. I think they're going to get the playoff spot, not the Bengals.

58:36Cousin Sal:No kidding.

58:37Bill Simmons:I have the Bengals at either 9 or 10, but I think the Steelers get to 10.

58:41Cousin Sal:I mean, they face the number three pass defense right now this year in their schedules. I don't know. I don't know how he does it. I like the vibes.

58:50Bill Simmons:I like everything I'm seeing from the training camp, but I think Tomlin, I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach of the team, and everybody kind of knows it's ending, and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just... You say all that, but remember, go back and look year over year over year. Their record in one-score games and the record of the Steelers as underdogs. Nobody matches Tomlin for that. And they ran that playbook to a T last year.

59:19Cousin Sal:Seven and three last year, one score, plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I just think... Well, can't they have the DNA from that

59:25Bill Simmons:with also having a better offense?

59:28Cousin Sal:Yeah, they could get... The funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did. That's absolutely the furthest. Who'd they play? Houston the first round? And got smoked. You play the outdoor game and now you got a 40-something-year-old quarterback who has to get rid of the ball. Yeah, I don't think they're winning a playoff round.

59:42Bill Simmons:I just think there's a path for 10 and 7. And most of it has to do with Cincinnati, who I kind of wish I'd pick for 9 and 8. But I just, I couldn't, I really had trouble finding AFC wins. I was really low on everybody. Like, I added it up and I was like, ah, fuck, like I'm seven wins lower than I need to be.

1:00:01Cousin Sal:Don't tip your hand here. You added seven wins to the team. You gave five of the first. We've done two divisions in the AFC, and you have five of those teams at at least 10 wins. Yeah, he found the place. He has Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincy. Yeah, I'm in Buffalo. That's 50 wins. And I know he has Houston at 15 wins. I don't think.

1:00:22Bill Simmons:Maybe I need to move Cincinnati to 9 and 8.

1:00:24Cousin Sal:Move them to the NFC. All right.

1:00:28Bill Simmons:Last one is Cleveland. Cleveland was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking yourself into teams.

1:00:37Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:00:37Bill Simmons:They're over-unders five and a half. Playoffs plus 640. Worst record 6-1. Last year, they were 5-12. They had a harder schedule, a worse roster, in the same terrible QB situation they're in now. They also had Myles Garrett and they had Jim Schwartz. and Stefanski. What if... The Browns miraculously get like a C - from the QB position. What if Watson has a little bit of a turnaround or Sanders comes in? Like just a C -, not even a C+. Could this team win like eight games?

1:01:14Cousin Sal:No, C - still gets them to seven games, I think. Okay. I think. I mean, this is a laughable situation. And a mutual friend of ours who hates the Browns said, has this Deshaun Watson signing handcuffed them more than any other player in any franchise ever for as long as it has. Now, the counter to that is they always make mistakes anyway, the Browns' ownership. They weren't going to win anyway.

1:01:39Bill Simmons:They were just going to fuck it up with somebody else.

1:01:41Cousin Sal:Yeah, but in terms of like morally corrupt, going in and then signing him and then giving him the big money and then for him to go out there and say, why am I getting booed? How dare they? It's like, who's going to get booed if you don't get booed? You played 19 games in three years. You've been horrific and they can't move on because of you. And now you're the starter.

1:02:01Bill Simmons:It's pretty rare. Like you see teams or players, like they bum out their fan base, suck the life out of them. You rarely see the fan base enraged. Yeah. It's the hardest thing to do. Like when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts, like we were enraged. We really made us mad. This is like a whole other level. I don't even know.

1:02:19Cousin Sal:There's no one, right?

1:02:20Bill Simmons:This is like somebody walking in on their wife or husband, and just having sex with the doorman.

1:02:26Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:02:26Bill Simmons:You know, and not even normal sex, like a crazy position house. Right. Oh, Lord. Yeah. Why? I thought House told you not to say anything about this. Sorry, House.

1:02:35Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:02:35Bill Simmons:No, but just like you walk in on something pretty crazy. Right. What was the movie, The Hangover, when the people are showing up for the orgy? What was it? Not The Hangover, old school. Luke Wilson comes home and his girlfriend and the people are coming for the orgy. It's like that. Right. The Browns fans are like that level. Not only is their life collapsing. For five years.

1:02:56Cousin Sal:It's been a five-year orgy. Four years. Well, some stuff in their favor.

1:03:00Bill Simmons:Miles Garrett, turns out he is eligible for the Ewing Theory. They won jack shit with him. Great player. They had another monster draft. They've had two awesome drafts in a row. This one was like, they got a new left tackle. Concepcion in Boston. Everybody loves these guys at receiver. They got McNeil Warren at safety. All those guys were top 60 picks.

1:03:21Cousin Sal:the last draft was Fannin, Judkins and Schwozinger the defensive

1:03:26Bill Simmons:rookie of the year. There was one more and Judkins. Did you say Judkins? Yeah. They're running back. Yeah. They have young talent anywhere and I again I thought Stefanski was terrible last year like to the point it seemed like he was throwing games but he might have just been bad their offensive lines if here and no Jim Schwartz who sadly they couldn't keep or figure out how to

1:03:48Cousin Sal:Yeah, here's why I think your C-minus quarterback thing won't hold up. I don't think the defense will be nearly as good. They boast like having 45 straight games without allowing a 300-yard passer. Guess why? Because Myles Garrett is getting double teamed. Jared Burst is a nice player, but it's not going to be the same thing. So you're not buying the Ewing Theory. They're going to have to score 27 to win a lot of games, I think.

1:04:10Bill Simmons:One case for them is how awful their schedule is. I mean, how awfully good it is for them. Rodgers twice, Bryce, Geno Cam Ward, Cousins, Stroud Shuck, Tua Dart, Jones are all quarterbacks they play so if their defense is good there is a path for them to get to 7 and 10 even if they're just handing the ball off for four quarters I have them as a slight under at 5 and 12 and you can even talk me into 4 and 13 and the reason is now it would be the most Browns thing ever for them to fuck up their chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick. But I just, how are the incentives aligned to do this?

1:04:51Bill Simmons:Like, we just saw Haslam owns the Bucs. He could have traded Giannis for Jalen and picks, right? And tried to be good. And instead they tanked and they're going to rebuild. And I don't understand.

1:05:02Cousin Sal:He's used to being wrong, but they did ask Haslam or he offered it. I think they asked him. They told him it was five and a half. This is over on there. I'm serious. And he said he would go over. So that's just something else he's going to be wrong about. That's probably the only thing we've needed to discuss in terms of picking this.

1:05:18Bill Simmons:So they have Watson for two games at Jags at Bucs. Yeah. Jason Lloyd, who does a good job at The Athletic, wrote a piece about they're telling you all what they think of Shader Sanders by how they've handled this. Like, they obviously just don't think he's good. Right. And there's no other, unless they trade for, I don't know, Stetson Bennett or Tyson Bajan. Jimmy G's a free agent. Yeah. Talk to me. If you're Jimmy G, do you want to go play for the Browns and get the shit kicked out of you? I'm a slight under. I'm five and 12. Five and 12 is where I have it too. I couldn't go over on this. Yep.

1:05:52Bill Simmons:House, your thoughts on this division? Yeah. So I am drinking the Cincinnati Kool-Aid. I knew you would. You have to believe that the offensive line, that the idea of continuity, even though they were substandard in execution, that the guy's returning, that there's a upside to it. That's the only way this makes any sense. because you have appropriately criticized that offensive line. And it has been the thing that's held them back because they can't keep Joe Burrow upright. But when he's upright with all those weapons, now I have a view, you and I talked about this before taping today, I think that defense is potentially sneaky good.

1:06:26It took them a while to get used to Al Golden, who came over from Notre Dame. I'm in on this too. First half of the season, we talked about this. And the splits for them, the latter half of the season, and he did some things that uncomplicated assignments. He altered the scheme, and they all got on the same page. Now you pointed out, look at who they played.

1:06:46Bill Simmons:I was in on this theory until I looked who they played. But he won me over for 10 seconds with this theory. Then we went and actually looked who they played.

1:06:53Cousin Sal:What about you can only play who's on your schedule? No? I think there were reasons. And it was a very good defense against those shit teams and those shit quarterbacks, and this schedule that the Bengals have in front of them, that's what really bolsters the case. I love what you're doing with Baltimore, and I don't really disagree. I just, to me, as a brand-new coach, I have Jesse Minter and this Baltimore team in the exact same place as Seattle with Mike McDonald. They won 10 games as soon as Mike McDonald arrived, and then Super Bowl the second year. I think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs.

1:07:25That defense was so bad last year, that Baltimore defense. That's what let them down more than any other thing. Jim Harbaugh, the Harbaugh coach and the defense. So 10 wins for Baltimore is good. It's crazy to me that they arrived at 11 and a half. They were the top win total in the AFC for most of the summer. It just dropped down as we're, you know, everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half. So I have Cincinnati at like 11 wins, Baltimore at 10. And then I think Pittsburgh's taking a big step back. You have to like really give credence to what Tomlin did in one score games. It's not just last year when 70 % of their wins were one score games.

1:08:03It's Tomlin year after year after year. I'm not in on that. I get it. And then Brown's in last. I get it.

1:08:09Bill Simmons:I wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city and just weird shit happening year after year with them. 18 years of Tomlin for that. But we're going to find out now that he's not there if it was Tomlin or if it was something deeper.

1:08:21Cousin Sal:The Trey Hendrickson, I know we touched on it, but it's a key piece to this division, whether or not it makes the Ravens better. There's the belief that he's 31 years old. He missed, what, nine or 10 games last year? You're not getting the best version of Trey Hendrickson. And if that's the case, kudos to Cincinnati.

1:08:37Bill Simmons:I always thought he was pretty good when he played.

1:08:39Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:08:40Bill Simmons:Wanted to mention quickly Fando's NFL futures reward stack, where it's basically, it's a five-pack house, unrestricted, two unrestricteds, a make-or-miss playoffs, regular season wins, player milestones. You can do any of those and you get the 50 % profit boost token, aka the PPT PBT PBT that's what I call it profit boost token PBT chat PBT no Fando has just covered you have until Monday August 31st the last day of August as it turns out to hop in on this I would highly encourage it that's tomorrow we've given you a bunch of picks yeah yeah we've given you a bunch of great picks and what do you have what's your favorite do we have a player one for the AFC or have we not gotten to it yet?

1:09:33Bill Simmons:Are you, like if you had to do an over.

1:09:35Cousin Sal:Yours is AJ Brown, right?

1:09:37Bill Simmons:Yeah, I would do any AJ Brown. Touchdowns. I'd probably do the touchdowns for AJ Brown. Yeah. Because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there. Be my guess.

1:09:48Cousin Sal:Does Vandal list fuck you touchdowns? I mean, is it?

1:09:50Bill Simmons:I searched for fuck you and I couldn't find them. Like a six and a half or something for Henry. This episode is brought to you by my old buddy Paramount+. Plus, see you Sunday on Paramount Plus. You're streaming home for the NFL and CBS all season long. That's right, football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC Championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, can't miss matchups, and the season's biggest storylines. Catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign into Paramount Plus today.

1:10:21Bill Simmons:And we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of the NFL and CBS streaming live on Paramount Plus. This episode is brought to you by DirecTV. Football fans, you know the situation. You are ready to watch your favorite teams, but each game is scattered across different apps and channels. Well, with DirecTV, you watch pro and college football games in one place, no matter where they air. Plus, you can watch up to four games with multi-view and follow team stats and scores. Sign up now at DirecTV.com. Games not included with DirecTV require a separate paid app subscription. Service renews monthly unless canceled.

1:10:55Bill Simmons:Local channels vary by market. Blackouts and terms apply. This episode is brought to you by 20th Century Studios. The Dog Stars, now playing in theaters and IMAX. Visionary filmmaker Ridley Scott returns with a gripping post-apocalyptic thriller when a mysterious radio transmission shatters a lone pilot's isolated existence. He embarks on a dangerous journey in search of hope. Starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Alison Janney, and Guy Pearce. The Dog Stars, now playing in theaters and IMAX. All right. The most boring part of the podcast and every ringer podcast is the AFC South and the Houston Texans.

1:11:35Bill Simmons:It's rare we're all aligned on a team.

1:11:40Bill Simmons:I had to make some moves to be able to get these Houston bets in a month ago that I don't want to talk about. I love this. Please talk about it. He made some moves. I'm going to talk about it.

1:11:55Bill Simmons:Talk about it and then think about it. My daughter's boyfriend, Hank, who's a great kid, turned 21 this summer, as did my daughter. And FanDuel is in Massachusetts, obviously. And there was a couple bets I really wanted to get in. There was UCLA overs. But Houston, the market had not shifted appropriately yet. I can't have my daughter do it. My dad would have no idea how to do it. But Hank, I really trust Hank. I let Hank log into my fan door as me. I get the code to make sure it's me to my phone. I give him the code. He logs in. And I have all this money that I had from last year because I actually hit a bunch of futures last year.

1:12:36Bill Simmons:And he's putting in bets for me. And honestly, it was the closest I've ever felt to Hank. It's a real bonding moment for us. A week later, called him up. We did some more.

1:12:48Cousin Sal:You know what's great about this for Hank? Like, you know, the groom is traditionally supposed to ask the father of the bride if she can have her hand. Do I have your blessing? And he's like, oh, no, I have his Vandal password. I definitely have his blessing to take his daughter.

1:13:04Bill Simmons:So he calls and he's like, dad, I broke up with Hank. I'm like, hold on. Changed my password.

1:13:11Cousin Sal:It's the greatest. Anyway, Hank. Have you told her she needs to give you a heads up if they're going to break up so you can change the password? Oh, like inside information? She needs, yeah, you need that.

1:13:21Bill Simmons:She's going to give it to Adam Schefter. He ran. Adam Schefter. What did you say? What was the word he was? I don't know. Dead fish. You dead fished House. He met, House met Adam Schefter a couple years ago. Like a pretty, not that big country club golf thing. It was a very nice charity event. Very nice. And House went up to him knowing that he'd been, Adam Schefter had been on my podcast. Obviously House has introduced himself and I'm at the Ringer. I just want to express my admiration it wasn't like I'm not here to talk for 10 minutes it wasn't an ear bender I didn't show up with intentions I made it clear that I would move right on I was near the bar he just dead fished House

1:14:03Cousin Sal:was he on two phones at the time House didn't tell us this for two years yeah what the hell House why are you holding this in I've been saving it he really was he didn't need to be so mean to Jed York so I have to share the story now Okay. I was really upset about Jed York.

1:14:19Bill Simmons:I've known House since 1988. This is less than three stories of people who have dead fished House. Everybody loves House.

1:14:26Cousin Sal:You don't dead fish House. I couldn't believe it.

1:14:28Bill Simmons:How dare anyone's mean to House? Houston Texans. Over nine and a half. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Divisions plus 120. Sign me up for that. Playoffs minus 176. Throw that at any parlay. Number one seed plus 950. 12 plus wins. Plus 220. You love this. Best record, 12 to 1.

1:14:54Bill Simmons:Long storied case on why I love this, but I'll give you the what if. What if they can semi-salvage Stroud this year? C plus Stroud.

1:15:02Cousin Sal:Oh, yeah. Just give me a C plus. Yeah, well, listen, he was fine except for those playoff. And those playoff games is what cost him an extension, right? Like, he really should have been reset. Anybody else would have. But then what did he do? five interceptions, six sacks, no touchdowns, maybe showing up to training camp with the awkward backpack and like he's about to present a social studies project. I admit that might've hurt too. But other than that, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. Like they get so much pressure from Dano Hunter and Will Anderson, who they extended. And that's all they kind of need defensively.

1:15:35Cousin Sal:They're the scariest team in the league. And that's why as long as they're healthy, they're bulletproof the rest of the way.

1:15:42Bill Simmons:I felt like I was taking crazy pills the entire op-season. They have the best defense in the league. Yeah. It's the best. Nobody would argue it. They didn't lose anybody from the defense and added blankenship, right? So everybody's back. I thought they were probably the best team last year, and Stroud just fucked them in that game. Why did he fuck them? Bad offensive line. They had the worst running backs in the league, and they had wide receiver injuries, and I just think he lost his confidence as the year went along. Montgomery, not beginning to tell my grandkids that I saw David Montgomery run the ball in the NFL.

1:16:15Cousin Sal:Your grandkids are going to have your password to... Yeah, my grandkids are going to be like,

1:16:19Bill Simmons:Grandpa, I'm on your fan duel.

1:16:25Bill Simmons:But Montgomery's really solid. They had Nick Chubb last year who just retired.

1:16:29Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:16:30Bill Simmons:And they had Woody Marks, and it was just a rotating, you know, and now they're confident there. wide receivers deeper.

1:16:39Cousin Sal:They have red zone woes, definitely. And Montgomery should solve a few of those.

1:16:43Bill Simmons:Really frustrating if you bet on them last year. I had them in a tease to watch them. Collins, the two rookies from last year, they're back. Higgins is hurt, but Noel's back. And then Tank Dell is in the Higgins spot. And then they traded for Booty, who I really liked. And then the offensive line is the question. it's not great and it's the one red flag to me the offensive line I'm much more worried about than Stroud, the problem is I mean the problem for the rest of the conference and the league, their defense is so fucking good I'm not really sure it's going to matter that much like they're going to have leads they're going to just absolutely smoke teams, in my rankings I had them at 27 points I had 7 guys that got points on their defense Anderson, Hunter, Al Shayer Stingley, Lasseter Bullock, and Petray and that's not that Blankenship didn't even get it Fairbairn is one of the best kickers in the league Ryan's I think is like one of the seven best coaches right and I think their defense and the coaching and the special teams can carry this

1:17:45Cousin Sal:seventh easiest strength of schedule first three out of four home it's all looking good I would put it this way does it worry you that

1:17:51Bill Simmons:all of us are all in on this yeah

1:17:54Cousin Sal:it's my only thing

1:17:55Bill Simmons:that scared like I felt like as everybody was getting behind them Higgins blew out his ACL like the next day almost

1:18:01Cousin Sal:that wasn't great But I also feel there's a lot of Stroud talk. I think there could be 10 wins plus with Davis Mills. And he shows he could win games. Only because you only have to score like 17 points to win some of these games.

1:18:15Bill Simmons:It's a good point. I like Davis Mills. If I was Cleveland, I would trade my third round pick for him. And yet they had 404 points last year, which was the second most in franchise history. Here's the thing with Stroud. At least Stroud has done it. At least we know he was good at one point, which was only two, three years ago. And at least we know there were real reasons he wasn't good last year. They couldn't block. They couldn't run the ball. He had nobody to throw the ball to. Lost his confidence. That's fine. Bills, Bengals to start the season both at home. We know a lot more after week two.

1:18:49Bill Simmons:They own the Bills. I think this defense, I think they thought they were the best team last year. Right? They're going in this year. They're like, we're the best team in the AFC. We're going to go show it. So I have them. It's an over. It's a lock for me. 12 and 5.

1:19:06Cousin Sal:12 and 5 is the same I have them. They have this Georgia Tech guard who I think allowed two sacks in 43 games. They're shoring up that offensive line as much as they can. They got a Michigan tight end. So I don't know. And that schedule, what did we say? Four prime time. They play the Jags in London.

1:19:25Bill Simmons:Four night road games. Yeah. Plus Jags in London. So that's not awesome.

1:19:28Cousin Sal:No teams coming off a bye. They face no teams coming off a bye.

1:19:32Bill Simmons:AFC South goes AFC North and NFC East. So, not awesome. They play Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert, Lamar, Love, Daniels, and Hurts. And I'm not sure that's going to matter. They end the season with the Titans, which could be dangerous for the 12-plus wins bet if they have whatever quenched. You're in a right hedge if you got that far. All in. I really like the coach, too. I think he's good. I think they probably should have beaten the Pats last year. Straub just single-handedly screwed the game up, but we couldn't do anything against their defense. And then eventually the defense realized, like, oh, we're just screwed.

1:20:07Jacksonville, 8.5, plus 210 for the division,

1:20:11Bill Simmons:27-1 for Super Bowl, minus 106 for the playoffs. Really the most dead even of all the playoffs. Full-plus wins, plus 360. Under 7.5 wins, plus 190. this is yet another turnover regression team everybody's been um regressing we need a word for this it's a regress regression orgy yeah just these regression teams but what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them and then you pick apart the streak at the end the eight games they're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and look at some of those games the only really super impressive one was denver right and there's some other ones like they played Indy twice during that stretch after Jones had already gotten hurt and

1:20:58Cousin Sal:I can't get

1:20:59Bill Simmons:there with this team.

1:21:00Cousin Sal:I don't know. This is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all and I have them at 10 wins and last year we sat here and I picked them to win the division and because Travis Hunter's been great and Brian Thomas Jr. is going to have a great, oh what a sophomore year and one didn't play and one barely played and it was terrible and it was all Jacoby Myers coming in and Lawrence like stepping up like we no one's business. Etienne's gone. Again, I don't know why I'm ignoring the regression here. They had, what, 6-1 score games and top three and takeaways, but I do think, this is just one of my gut feelings, I'm going under because I think Indianapolis takes a tumble, and I think Lawrence has the confidence to get them the double-digit wins at this point.

1:21:42Bill Simmons:Oh, so you're under on the Jags.

1:21:43Cousin Sal:Is it 10.5? It's 8.5. Yeah, I'm going 10 wins.

1:21:47Bill Simmons:So you're over. Over, yeah.

1:21:49Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:21:50Bill Simmons:It's juice to the over. I have them at 8-9. You can talk me into 9-8. You cannot talk me into 10. My biggest thing with them, this Hunter trade they did, which cost them a lot of draft capital. Their draft sucked. I think they had the worst draft in the league. And all the people I know who liked the draft also thought it was the worst draft anyone had. The tight end of 19 catches. Yeah, it was just weird. It was not good. They lost ETN. They lost Lloyd. they were playing I guess Tootin hopefully keep your fingers crossed we talked about him on Tuesday's pod below average offensive line that's another thing I don't like and then the Brian Thomas Jr.

1:22:31Bill Simmons:where it's like no no he's doing great it's like I had him last year I've never taken that guy again a lot of red flags from a roster standpoint I had them at 15 and that's what's giving Parker Washington a 2 I only had 3 guys on defense that I thought were impactful and I don't like the schedule at all. They have nine road games, plus two in London. So they have six home games in Jacksonville. And then 11 games at all other locations. And defenses they go against this year. Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philly, Houston twice, Baltimore, Giants if they're good, and a shootout with the Bears.

1:23:11Bill Simmons:But I couldn't get there.

1:23:14Cousin Sal:Yeah. Again, I don't have a lot to that they have to get to december like that's what they have kind of easier than with dallas washington and indianapolis um they i think they have 35 days between home games because they're doing renovations on their stadium but i have them winning both uh london games so that's what i'm

1:23:31Bill Simmons:with that so that includes beating the texans yeah so i had them getting swept by the texans which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else sure and i think they're a 500 team I don't feel great about it. I certainly wouldn't make it a lock or anything. I just don't understand

1:23:55Bill Simmons:letting Etienne go and then you get Tootin and Chris Rodriguez, house's guy. Did you watch him last year? He's fine. He's a run-of-the-mill third stringer. The problem for this team Their run game was so important for them. They have a doofus GM. James Gladstone. We can call him out by name. He's a goofball. He's on the wrong side. Like, all of the draft analysts, he's picking guys, you know, 30 spots earlier than where consensus has guys. And he's done it for two years. He grossly overpaid for Travis Hunter. He's the single biggest impediment to this team's advancement. Because Colm is good. He's a good head coach.

1:24:32Did he dead fish you? Is that why you're upset?

1:24:34Cousin Sal:I don't know.

1:24:35Bill Simmons:He dead fished Jay Gladstone. Wow. Pass was like, hey, you know what I'm doing? And he's like, hey, nice to meet you. Indianapolis Colts over eight and a half.

1:24:47Bill Simmons:Tale of two seasons last year.

1:24:49Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:24:50Bill Simmons:Number one seed, 25 to one. Going to rule that out. Under six and a half wins, plus 210. Division plus 340. What if Daniel Jones, who blew his Achilles out halfway through last season, is not 100 % this season? No doubt. How can you pick this team for a winning record? if it's Daniel Jones, not 100%. I don't see the case.

1:25:14Cousin Sal:This is my lock under. 6-11. Sorry, Tony Tokens. Tony and all the Token family, everybody. I'm going under here. I think you're right. I think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year, which means use his legs to extend plays. And I don't think it's happening. And Pierce just came off the PUP as far as...

1:25:33Bill Simmons:That part made me nervous too. Big contract for Pierce. Hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was. and now it doesn't seem like he's 100%. I don't know why I'm dinging them.

1:25:44Cousin Sal:They lost Pittman. I'm dinging them for what Jacksonville did, too. They had turnovers in 15 games. They forced turnovers. So I don't think that's happening again. I think this is a 6-11 team.

1:25:55Bill Simmons:Ravens week one, at Chiefs week two, Texans week three. Yeah, that's 0-3. With Daniel Jones on one leg, basically. I think you can keep going. You shouldn't play. I think it gets worse and worse. It's crazy. I really was thinking about a lock. Should we lock this down together?

1:26:12Cousin Sal:The other part of it is Lou Anarumo's the second version of his defense. I like it less and less. The bend don't break? Yeah, the bend don't break. I think it breaks.

1:26:23Bill Simmons:Yeah, I mean, eight, nine, and eight. I'm not going to lock it.

1:26:27Cousin Sal:Top three tacklers gone. Franklin, Cross, Pratt.

1:26:31Bill Simmons:I might lock it. I'm going to keep thinking about it. All right. Their first eight out or nine enjoy. Okay. good offensive line though. I'm not going to lock it. Like Tyler Warren. Sure. Taylor was great last year. They get a full sauce Gardner season. We'll see if Ward can avoid the concussions. Um, all right. Titans over five and a half. Under four and a half is plus two 20. Worst records, plus seven 50. I'm not giving you the other ones. They did, uh, did bring in big shot, Bob Sala. Right. Day ball. what if K. Moore doesn't have it what if he just doesn't have it what if he's not good the advanced stats against him were horrific last year but they also had the worst coach probably this decade

1:27:21Cousin Sal:he's got to show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds but then heaves it across the field at the coffin corner yeah it's a little bit of like a Hail Mary and did that like twice and everyone's like oh maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything it's way under really like abysmally bad.

1:27:39Bill Simmons:No, you can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake May's rookie year. Like if you watch Drake May that year, like, man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the year. He's running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback and ward. I want him to be good. We need more good quarterbacks. I just don't know if he's good.

1:27:56Cousin Sal:And again, there's a pressure on us to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to a first place. I did put them at eight wins. I do think Wondell Robinson's going to help and Carnell Tate. Like, that'll be as good a wide receiver. Eight wins this year? Yeah, this year, 2026. Eight and nine happened. Yeah. It's okay. What's wrong? Did you hear this, S? House, he needs help. What? You have Tennessee at eight and nine? Yeah. Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator. You got Salah in there. You got Dave Ball. He's terrible. It's fine. It's going to be good. eight and nine. They were at six and a half nearly all summer in terms of the win total.

1:28:35And then here we are and it's down to five and a half. Locked me in. The Sharps have been... But juice to the over. Franklin Myers,

1:28:41Cousin Sal:that Denver player, is really good. They locked him in. I think defense will be better. They spent over almost$300 million on free agent talent. So it's six wins is minus 135. And Coz is saying there's a possibility for two more. And the schedule is... Including that week 18 game that you talked about. Right.

1:29:00Bill Simmons:They drafted Tate and they signed Wondell Robinson. So he's got two weapons.

1:29:07Cousin Sal:They have the Jets and Giants two out of the first three weeks. That's going to tell the story of the season. That's Salah and Dable. That'll be fun for sure.

1:29:15Bill Simmons:I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and Schrager likes him. Even if Schrager won't come on my podcast anymore. What? No, he won't. Dead fish? It's like Team ESPN now. Oh. Yeah. Okay. Still friends with them. Friendly, friendly, but just won't come on. Mina's on ESPN. She comes on. Shregs turned down multiple invitations. Wow. Played a lot of golf. No kidding. Don't make excuses. It's fine.

1:29:38Cousin Sal:You play golf. You're here.

1:29:39Bill Simmons:I know. I had for their roster, I had offensive line two. Yeah. Simmons three points. Stonehouse one. And that was really all the guys that got points in this defense. Even Franklin Myers. You didn't like him? I wouldn't have put points for him. Here's the thing, though. Big shot Bob Sala. mentioned Brandon Schrager. He was terrible on the Jets. Remember, like, we called him A-Kid Salah. We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was. They didn't have a lot of help. Their defense was always pretty good with him, but, you know. And then Dayball was a maniac on the Giants' sidelines, so I don't know.

1:30:16Bill Simmons:I can't get there with this.

1:30:18Cousin Sal:We're forced to take a fourth-place team, and I won't put one in the playoffs like this, but they can go a win and a half over their expectation, right, House? Why not? Yeah, that's all.

1:30:27Bill Simmons:They basically have to beat the Jets week one in the solid revenge game. Because after that, if I'm looking for wins at Giants maybe, at Colts, home Browns, one of the Jags games, home commanders, at Raiders. Yeah. Now you're in that six-ish. But you have to win 80 % of those. Yeah. I'm going five and 12 under. I don't feel great about it. um how's the afc south talk to us yeah i mean we're so bullish on houston and uh we all bet them i'm all the way up at like you know 12 wins the alt alt win total for houston um the most important thing for them to me is giving their offensive coordinator kaylee the opportunity to run stroud out of under center and that's going to translate into a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff.

1:31:24Like we didn't see their offense because they thought Joe Mixon was going to play running back for them until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B. So this is the version of the offense and I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well. So that's why, that's part of the case for being bullish on Houston. The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins and the market said, congratulations we think you're an 8.5 win team. 13 last year and now here's your win total.

1:31:51Cousin Sal:Why don't you get pissed about this with the Patriots you didn't like the disrespect? I have no counter.

1:32:01And yet, I think it's the right number. And it's the right number because this GM stinks. They're not replenishing.

1:32:07Bill Simmons:They're letting guys walk, and they're not replenishing. That's the problem. The Patriots actually got better.

1:32:12Cousin Sal:Oh, okay.

1:32:12Bill Simmons:The Jaguars got worse by any way you want to look at it. They have worse players than they did last year. It's just a fact. I'm mystified by the Colts. I think Steichen is incredible. And what he showed us over the first seven games last year, it was like, what a revelation that nobody had the Colts coming out and leading the league in efficiency and scoring and all the rest of it. But I cannot, I will not and cannot, and under any circumstances, endorse a guy coming off an Achilles in this short period of time. Right. And think that, oh, that's a, their quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson.

1:32:49That's as bad as it gets.

1:32:50Cousin Sal:Richardson moved down to third, by the way, on the depth chart. Yes, Bradley Leonard.

1:32:53Bill Simmons:So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans, and the Colts. Yeah. And over on the Texans. I think this is a one-horse division. Right. His house was worried I was taking too many 10-plus wins teams. 10-plus wins, yeah. Kind of running out of them. You're going to have a couple here. You worked it out, but there should be a couple more. I think there's a way this division might actually be in the running against NFC South for at least wins.

1:33:15Cousin Sal:Fewest wins, huh?

1:33:16Bill Simmons:I would favor them. This would be a good FanDuel thing. 36. If I gave you AFC South one and a half wins more than the NFC South, who do you take? Well, I have seven and tens all over, so

1:33:28Cousin Sal:I have to take... I may have 28 for NFC South. Alright, so three and a half.

1:33:31Bill Simmons:What would be the number? Three and a half? 36 for...

1:33:34Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's probably the number. You can do this. It's available on FanDuel. You can take divisions. And there are odds available right now. Division matchups. But not spreads. Not spreads, that's right. But you can get an implied probability out of it. I love it. I had Hank to...

1:33:54Bill Simmons:I had Hank to... What a scandal. The Browns plus 200 against Atlanta. You did? Head to head. Yeah, for more wins.

1:34:01Cousin Sal:Yeah. Oh, interesting. Yeah. I'm just like, yeah, it's two to one.

1:34:04Bill Simmons:That's fun. Figured they'd probably push. Yeah. All right. And this is our last one. Hank is being blessed.

1:34:11Cousin Sal:Hank is led away in cuffs. Hank's been arrested.

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1:34:59Bill Simmons:AFC West, Denver Broncos. Over nine and a half. They won 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year. Division 2-1. Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus wins plus 250. What if this? was actually the best AFC team last year. You have two teams that probably spent the whole offseason going, we should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one, maybe Buffalo. I don't know if Buffalo fired their coach immediately, but I definitely think Houston and Denver were both like, how the fuck did we not make the Super Bowl?

1:35:33Cousin Sal:I still don't know what happened to Bo Nix. Was it the last play of the game in the locker room? It really was nuts. Did we even say anything?

1:35:38Bill Simmons:It really was nuts. So what are your thoughts this year? Denver was very kind to us last year. They were. With futures. was one of the big hits last year.

1:35:47Cousin Sal:But it was a down year for the division in terms of, you know, Mahomes out there. They had two score, one score wins against the Chiefs. Chargers got decimated. Yeah, Chargers decimated. The Raiders were the Raiders. This team, I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good. I kind of liken them to the Bears, who I know you love. But it's the same sort of one score lock, you know, turnover lock. 11-2 in one score games, 1-6 in 2024. They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15. Now, I don't want to kill Bo Nix for having that clutch gene because that's all that means.

1:36:26Cousin Sal:He trailed and they brought him back. We watched that Giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five-game decrease. I mean, I wouldn't sign up, but their first six, laughably difficult. KC, Jacksonville, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. I won't say which is home, which is away. I think that's three and three at best.

1:36:46Bill Simmons:But they're playing the Chiefs on a Monday night in KC.

1:36:50Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:36:52Bill Simmons:When, first of all, Mahomes is like, no, I'm feeling good. Like, it's his first game. It's going to be weird emotion there. I don't know. If I'm playing at Kansas City, that's the game I want to play. Week one.

1:37:04Cousin Sal:Really?

1:37:05Bill Simmons:I want to come right at them before Mahomes is settled and he's back to himself. I don't even know who their receivers are yeah the defense

1:37:12Cousin Sal:I think is a shade below Houston and that's what's going to keep them in games like Vance Joseph they have 68 and 63 sacks over the last

1:37:20Bill Simmons:two years I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out I mean their defense is really good it's not top three but it's probably top six they have the best offensive line in either conference I got them seven points for the offensive line don't give up sacks traded for Waddle they have two receivers that I gave two points each to Waddle and Sutton and Waddle I think will really help Bo Nix and then they have Sean Payton who's one of the six best coaches in the league so I can block I can defend and I have a really good coaching staff I'm not as scared about the schedule week 10 through 15 are pretty easy bi-week Raiders at Steelers Dolphins at Jets at Raiders and then they get the Chargers the last week you're going over I mean that's oh I'm not only going over I'm 11 and 6 and an overlock This is one of my locks.

1:38:08Bill Simmons:I'm in on Denver. Wow. I don't understand why there's just too much of a foundation here. Like, we talk about, like, Cincinnati. Like, one injury, the thing can fall apart. This team has, like, things can happen and they'll still be okay. And things happened last year and they were okay. But they really happened. I mean, the one score. It's a little bit of a window team, too. They're in a little bit of a similar spot with the Pats, whereas Nick's on a rookie deal where you were able to spend this money all these different ways. I really like RJ Harvey. I thought he had real moments last year. I want to see more from him this year.

1:38:43Cousin Sal:Waddle's a good pickup. He throws short. Anything at the line of scrimmage and stuff, he's going to make a big play out of.

1:38:48Bill Simmons:Our fantasy guys were really bullish on Waddle. They were just like, this guy, talk about bad quarterbacks. He's put up big stats last year with just absolute crap. So, I'm in. This is my favorite team in the division. And I like the division two-to-one odds. I already bet that I have the over. Like, I'm in on this team.

1:39:09Cousin Sal:All right. I have nine and eight. I think that's a tough, tough early stretch.

1:39:13Bill Simmons:Three and three out of those six. Okay. Next team is the Kansas City Chiefs. Over is nine and a half. Division plus 175. They have better division odds than the Denver Broncos. Go fucking figure that one. Minus 174 for the playoffs. Plus 146 not to make the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins is plus 190. 13 plus is plus 440. They were 6-11 last year. They basically flipped their secondary. They lost McGuffey. They drafted Delane as, what was he, like the sixth pick in the draft?

1:39:46Cousin Sal:From Ellis area. They moved up. Rookie cornerback.

1:39:48Bill Simmons:Moved up to get him. They drafted him in a defensive tackle on an edge on the top 40. People like Cyrus Allen as a wide receiver sleeper. Mahomes is allegedly healthy. so when this happened to brady after the aco the 08 season they still went 10 and 6 without him then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run air of 09 in 2010 before they rebooted and ran off the next thing they were still good they were like 10 and 6 one year the 13 and three the other year they had the number one offense i just don't see the talent with Kansas city. Like, I don't feel like there's a foundation and it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reed, like, well, and they have homes and Reed.

1:40:38Bill Simmons:And it's like, Reed was terrible last year. Their coaching staff was terrible. All the stories that came out from Kansas city was that the team was unfocused, that guys were lazy coming out of meetings. And like that, it was kind of like, you know, the classic, the players were running the team and yeah, I don't see it. Like they signed Kenneth Walker. Okay. Was she rice might not be in jail for most of the year? Fine. Worthy's healthy. Are we sure he's good? Um, it's a lot of like glass half full with them. Cause they're the chiefs. I would argue this is like the rebuilding year to lead to next year.

1:41:16Bill Simmons:Like Kelsey, I, I just feel like I didn't even give him points. I think it's over for him as an impact guy. And then Chris Jones is, what, 32, 33? Just feels like they're going to move into this different era. And I think they know it from the way they treated trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks. I think this is a transition year for them. I'm under. I'm under at 8-9.

1:41:38Cousin Sal:I feel like I shouldn't say anything. I don't want to get in your way here. But no, and maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the Chiefs. I don't blame you. Oh my God, you could get him to win 10 games and that's the over. You're good with that. And I think when we give our top three or four quarterbacks, it's always still going to be Mahomes in there. And so I'm going to take the over until he gives me a reason not to. Everything you said is true.

1:42:04Bill Simmons:But over here is 10 and 7 for him.

1:42:06Cousin Sal:Yeah, 10 and 7. And what you said is true. He thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering. And anyone who is Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the Taylor Swift cutaway knows he doesn't get that 14-yard pass until like the late in the third quarter.

1:42:23Bill Simmons:Like, is he in a dollar in our league this year?

1:42:24Cousin Sal:Yeah. I think like my wife took him in her draft. Yes, I'm like, ugh, what is that? Then she yelled at me. She's like, oh, we have to root for a time. I'm like, yeah, I don't know. Take Goddard there. You screwed up. But the NFL has a way of doing Mahomes a favor, and they did it this year. In the rehab bowl against Bo Nix, it's the very last game of week one, so they gave him enough time. They gave him an easy early schedule. First of all, he has a buy in week five. And then what are the first three? I forgot. Now I forget.

1:42:53Bill Simmons:It's Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Raiders buy.

1:42:55Cousin Sal:Right.

1:42:55Bill Simmons:Just trying to buy him as much time as he needs.

1:42:57Cousin Sal:So maybe they're three and one or four. No, I'm just not ready to close the book on him. I see getting the enemy back as a positive. I know people laugh at that because we're talking about the old guard and everything. And I think the Kenneth Walker signing is like solid. We talk about like these, it's over bloated. If you take a Superbowl MVP, Cowboys had one, Larry Brown, right? When he was in the right place, the right time against Neil O'Donnell.

1:43:22Bill Simmons:Larry Brown was where my brain was going. I think this is like with the, you know, lacking the tight end outlet pass.

1:43:30Cousin Sal:I think Kenneth Walker on the screen is going to be the outlet and it's going to help my homes. And I think it's going to make the offense good enough. It's the defense who did okay through the draft. the secondary is really young. That's the thing.

1:43:45Bill Simmons:Week 12 through 17, at Bills, at Rams, both on Thursdays, at Bengals, home Patriots on a Monday night, 49ers, at Chargers, all in a row. Right. I can't get there with it. And it reminded me of the early 2020s, Pats, when we were giving Belichick all that respect and rope because he was Belichick. Maybe. And it's like, at some point, this is... You don't like any of the older coaches.

1:44:13Cousin Sal:You answered your own question. I thought Reed was out to lunch last year.

1:44:16Bill Simmons:And I think he's the most media-protected QB in either conference. Especially with all the shit that happens to that team off the field.

1:44:23Cousin Sal:Well, Shanahan's the most media... Well, Shanahan for... Law enforcement and media. Yeah.

1:44:29Bill Simmons:But the Reed is like, everybody's looking the other way. He's going to be 70 soon. Like, this is... I don't know.

1:44:36Cousin Sal:No, they were 6-11. They had a plus 34. point differential. That I think is important. And they lost some stupid games.

1:44:43Bill Simmons:The Jaguars game was the dumbest loss probably of the year. I get it. They went from nine

1:44:46Cousin Sal:one-score wins to one. They're never in the middle. It's either like 10, 10. That's the concerning thing to your point. You're going to ride with Mahomes until he proves that you shouldn't do that. Well, he did have five fifth-quarter touchdowns, fourth-quarter interceptions last year.

1:45:02Bill Simmons:He was six and eight. And by the way, he got hurt at the closer to the end of the season when it was already done.

1:45:06Cousin Sal:He was six and eight. He should get a little more crap. House feels more strongly than I do. Yeah, I'm way out on this Kansas City team. I don't, I mean, this is, you have to do what you're doing, which is say priors. And that's the case for this Kansas City team. Priors aren't playing in the secondary for this team. Priors aren't, this pass rush for the Chiefs has been worse year over year, and they haven't done anything to improve the pass rush. So you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with a pass rush. Their defense was the reason that they lost games last year. The offense was, Mahomes had a pretty good year efficiency-wise.

1:45:40And his offensive line was awful. And it's not much better this year coming in.

1:45:45Bill Simmons:Below average this year.

1:45:46Cousin Sal:It's not spags on defense pulling off miracles anymore. It's not. I get it, but it's not always been like that.

1:45:53Bill Simmons:Mahomes coming back with an ACL, and anytime they're in a big game, fourth quarter, he takes off, he runs, he uses his legs. Is he going to do that again?

1:46:00Cousin Sal:No, if he doesn't, it's done.

1:46:02Bill Simmons:Is he going to be more stationary? Like Brady, I didn't feel, even though the stats were relatively the same, I felt like it took him two years to get the guys falling around your knees.

1:46:11Cousin Sal:I just don't think they go one and five in the division again. So if they go three and three, now they're back up to eight, I think they can get to ten.

1:46:21Bill Simmons:I think this is all reputation.

1:46:23Cousin Sal:So what do we do? Do we just argue until one of us can win to the other? No, we're going to move to the next team.

1:46:30Bill Simmons:They play a lot of good QBs too. Drake May, Burrow, Herbert twice, Allen, Stafford, Knicks twice, Darnold, Purdy. Chargers 9.5 I went back and forth on this one the most of all 32 teams you did Division plus 195 I think that's a good bet I think Chargers and Broncos are good bets you could argue bet both of those and just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats you playoffs minus 158 number one seed plus 800 under 7.5 is plus 310 best record 14-1 they were 11-6 last year year three of hardball he wins 11 games every year yep sure does I think he's in the 10 win club which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins Mikey Mikey Mack his new DJ he's coming in he's bringing in he's gonna use some salsa and some disco he's gonna play some Omarion people like the rookie pass rusher yeah the bad side they lost Jesse Minter they already lost their center their guards suck too and schedule rest is all time.

1:47:35Warren Sharp had a stroke

1:47:37Bill Simmons:about their schedule rest. It was minus 24. It was like the highest, the worst they've ever measured for schedule rest. Yeah.

1:47:44Cousin Sal:I saw a lot of travel, but this team doesn't have home games. So I think they're like, yeah, get us to the road. I don't think it matters as much. Yeah, it's 17 road games.

1:47:50Bill Simmons:Them and Deshaun Watson just playing on the road all year. I landed at 10, and that's a slight over. I just couldn't pick Harbaugh for nine wins. I really worried about the middle of their line, though. Like, you lose the center, and their guards are both terrible, and their tackles are elite. But everything in the middle is awful, and our team's just going to push through the middle at them. Where do you have them?

1:48:18Cousin Sal:I have them at 11, and I know they're starting with this bullshit with the BIAs being out in the offensive line, and they were like, they had the 27th best injury luck in the league. But Slater and Alt being back, it's all the difference when those guys are playing.

1:48:31Bill Simmons:They won 11 games without those guys. It's fucking crazy.

1:48:33Cousin Sal:It really is nuts. And I have to think, Mike McDaniel, this could be the biggest overreaction in terms of an assistant coming over, a coordinator coming over.

1:48:43Bill Simmons:Well, that's how bad their offense was before.

1:48:46Cousin Sal:Yeah, right. I like it. I like them winning 11, and I have them winning. I really want to do 11.

1:48:50Bill Simmons:I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest, and the center really threw me off. They're starting a rookie at center.

1:48:59Cousin Sal:Yeah, it's not great.

1:49:00Bill Simmons:Cole Strange is one of their starting guards who is so bad the Pats were the Pats who didn't even have a good offensive line last year was like we gotta get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to play him just waived him losing Minter worries me as well and they have a schedule so they go Cardinals Raiders first two weeks well 2-0

1:49:20Cousin Sal:there you go

1:49:21Bill Simmons:and then they have the next seven are just all time at Bills at Seahawks Broncos at Chiefs bye week at Rams Texans at Ravens it's a fucking gauntlet And then you got to keep your quarterback upright. That Texans game, you think the Texans are going to be going up the middle on the Chargers?

1:49:39Cousin Sal:54 sacks last year, third most for any quarterback. So I just think if they could just pretend, I mean, that's the case for everything. Hampton only played in nine games. That could help them out a little bit if they get a little bit of a run game.

1:49:52Bill Simmons:I do think Kerbert and May suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got to January last year. It was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped. and the fact that the Chargers offensive line was worse than the Pats. But at some point, when you're just going back, just assuming I only have 2.3 seconds to throw, I'm about to take a giant hit. At some point, as the stakes get higher and more stuff's going on and the teams get better, and you're not healthy.

1:50:20Cousin Sal:Sometimes they were in the red zone a lot and couldn't score, and that's supposed to be where Mike McDaniel's going to turn it around.

1:50:26Bill Simmons:I don't like Campton as much as some others, but I do think having him the whole year will probably help. receivers I don't love. They're fine.

1:50:34Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:50:34Bill Simmons:Herbert's a very sexy MVP pick.

1:50:37Cousin Sal:It's Ladd McConkie, Quentin Johnston, and Trey Harris. And already a couple of those guys are questionable.

1:50:44Bill Simmons:All right. So we're both over for them. And then the last team is the Las Vegas Raiders over under five and a half wins. Five to one to make the playoffs. 15-1 for the division. They were 3-14 last year. 8-1 if you want to go for them for worst record. They improved their offensive line, improved their run game, and they have Mendoza lurking. Plus, they have Clint Kubiak. Why wouldn't we go over on this?

1:51:12Cousin Sal:Oh, I was going to say this is my most embarrassing pick of all, picking them over. I won't do what I've done in prior years, take them to get a wild card or anything like that, but I do think they're going to go 7-10, I have, for this team. and it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza, my dumb reasoning, like Kubiak, it was a few years ago, but Kubiak and Cousins, that was his most productive year. He had 31 touchdown passes that year. Now, I can only say this with so much confidence for a team that boasts a wide receiver room of Trey Tucker, Jack Beck, and Malik Benson, which I think only next to the Dolphins is, that might be worse than the Dolphins, But little Max Crosby karma in there.

1:51:57Cousin Sal:They spent$308 million in free agency. That's the second most. You know, they got Tyler Lindenbaum. They got some Colton Miller. They have some good linemen in there.

1:52:06Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:52:06Cousin Sal:I think they're going to be competitive.

1:52:10Bill Simmons:Yeah. You went over too. I went under. Oh, you did?

1:52:14Cousin Sal:After all that?

1:52:15Bill Simmons:Yeah. I just had to have been 5-12. I couldn't get there. It's safe. Kubiak, sure. Yeah. He's going to be way better than the ghost of Pete Carroll. Right. The franchise just seems like a mess. I don't know what's going on with them. Like the Pete Carroll hiring was weird. They spent money, but then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza. And then they brought in Cousins as a Mendoza stopgap. But Mendoza is clearly going to play by week four and have nobody to throw to. and Jente, the sixth pick last year, was bizarre. I just think the roster's too weird for me.

1:52:57Cousin Sal:Can I give you my Tom Brady take here? I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team. Right. It's so low on the list. And I think it's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit. He's doing roasts. He's doing Subway commercials when he hasn't had a piece of bread in 16 years. He's going after whatever the fuck Paul brother. Everything's tight leather pant photo shoots. It's all to distract the fact that he owns the Raiders, and that's what he's staying away from. So I guess I'm saying good job by him. He's like the goat of distractions too.

1:53:40Cousin Sal:I can't believe he pulled it off.

1:53:41Bill Simmons:The best defense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet.

1:53:43Cousin Sal:Yeah. The goat. Throw it all out there. And the broadcasting, which is his thing. Well, that was the controversy of the first part of the season, right? The broadcasting and him being the owner. And, you know, was he in on Pete Carroll? And pretty quickly became apparent he was out on him. That was a big storyline. Does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable? Like him himself. Does he ever get that involved somehow?

1:54:08Bill Simmons:Doesn't seem like he cares that much. It's crazy.

1:54:11Cousin Sal:How old is he now?

1:54:13Bill Simmons:45? Late 40s. Might have been turning 50. Let me ask you a question about the over-under because they play the AFC East and the NFC West in this division. So what's their record in the division? One and five? I think I gave them two wins. This is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for. I've done this. One and five or oh and six? I totally agree with this. I know where you're going. I gave them two wins.

1:54:39Cousin Sal:They always have one score games against Denver. I think they pulled one. One and five or oh and six? Okay. Let's go one and five. All right, you won't let me go two and four, but that's fine.

1:54:48Bill Simmons:Bills, Patriots, Rams, Seahawks. Let's go on four for those. Now I'm at one and nine. Almost beat the Patriots. Now do the Niners. And the Niners are sitting there as well. I just, if you go them one and nine for those 10 games, I need to go five and two in the other seven games. And that's why I went under. Jets, Arizona, Miami. by the way every every bad other bad team you're playing they're like holy shit we might win this week we're playing the raiders okay i couldn't get that i know i wasn't proud of that i didn't

1:55:22Cousin Sal:finish strong there but i did have them at seven listen i didn't make it a lock i'm just i didn't

1:55:28Bill Simmons:really love it either way house your nfc your afc west thoughts yeah i like um denver to win this division uh and mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at two to one and the way i think that denver and the chargers are like neck and neck and my uh the reason i went in the direction of denver is because um i match up the units i think that denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense defense special teams i like the denver defense the best out of all of them that the um the schedules are comparable obviously because they're in in division and the chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line it's it's it's annoying.

1:56:07I'd really like to see this charges offense one time. I might have put in a bed a month ago

1:56:13Bill Simmons:and the chargers for the division before the center injury. You might have. It's Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs. I'm so far out on the Chiefs. I'm doing alt-unders on the Chiefs and then Raiders under five and a half because the math you just laid out. That's the way I'm putting this. This is one of my favorite exacts. Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders. I think that's how it goes.

1:56:33Cousin Sal:I look forward to Zoe and Hank and picture them on a yacht after the Texans win the Super Bowl and you're like oh that's nice whose yacht is that and he's like it's mine I took all your money out of the Fandolf account.

1:56:46Bill Simmons:Which room? Dumbass. Thanks. AFC locks so you had which locks?

1:56:53Cousin Sal:What did I have?

1:56:55Bill Simmons:Because I had Houston over

1:56:57Cousin Sal:nine and a half and I had Denver

1:56:59Bill Simmons:over nine and a half as my only two locks in the AFC so I did seven total.

1:57:03Cousin Sal:right I'm going Chargers over I'm going Jets over and that's it

1:57:12Bill Simmons:alright so you only had four locks

1:57:14Cousin Sal:total yeah that's it yeah I had for the NFC

1:57:16Bill Simmons:Dallas over Washington under Tampa over Atlanta under Seattle over right and then you had

1:57:22Cousin Sal:I can't remember what that was Green Bay I had Green Bay over and did I have or you had some unders a bunch of those NFC teams it was so many hours ago Yeah, it's fine. We're coming back... Probably a week from when this airs. Week from when this airs.

1:57:40Bill Simmons:We're going to do Guest Alliance, but we're also going to do our NFL Futures draft. And that's going to be this Sunday heading into NFL season. And you guys on the Ringer Wise guys, you're going to finish the last two divisions? Yeah, we have two NFC South and West,

1:57:54Cousin Sal:Monday and Friday.

1:57:55Bill Simmons:Yes.

1:57:56Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:57:57Bill Simmons:Raheem will change his picks right up to when you guys start the show. The rundown. there we go. We did it, Sal. Yeah, baby. Four hours, 32 teams. Only a couple arguments. One dead fish.

1:58:12Cousin Sal:One fish, two fish.

1:58:13Bill Simmons:One illegal gambling story. We had a whole bunch of stuff. Thanks, House. My pleasure. Thanks for letting me sit in the Craig chair. Thanks, Sal. Great time. Thanks, Gahal. Thanks, Eduardo. Thanks to everybody at the Ringer. And don't forget to come back on the BS Pod and on Ringer Wise, guys, and then me and Sal a week from now.

1:58:31Cousin Sal:Good job by you, buddy!

1:58:34Bill Simmons:Alright, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sal and House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahal, as always. Don't forget, new rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon. ET time. Can't wait for that because we did a really good movie. Like a really, really good one. I'll see you on this feed probably Tuesday. Might just be Thursday this week, but I I think it's going to be Tuesday, Thursday this week. So I'll see you at some point this week.

1:59:48Bill Simmons:Thank you. gamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York for Louisiana. Call 877-770-7867. You matched on Hinge. You're vibing. Then her energy completely changes. What do you do? I'm Raven Smith, and I wrote and read a real love story about this exact sitch. Listen to the free audio book now.

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