The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

10:27Cousin Sal:All right. That's good. All right. I say 12. I have to go slightly under. You go over.

10:30Bill Simmons:I did my crazy psychotic player rankings this year with the offense, defense, coaches, offensive line. And the Bills, I had at 29. Ed Allen is the top QB. Their O-line is the top four offensive line. James Cook, he's in there. You could talk maybe. I didn't give Shakira a point, but you could talk me into it. Right. And then Rousseau, Jones, Milano, Benford, Johnson. They have five chippers on the D, and I think the coaching staff's at least top 10. And then home field advantage, you would have to say, is probably top four.

11:03Cousin Sal:Like I said, it's 93 % or whatever that is. The angriest you were at yourself this week is passing on Josh Allen as the one pick in our Ringer Fantasy League.

11:15Bill Simmons:No, the angriest I was was last year that I did the Jets to win Buffalo. And if I had switched that, I would have gone 29-3 last year. That was a stupidest. And I was battling back and forth. Well, I get my revenge on Rodgers in about five teams. Go get it.

11:30Cousin Sal:All right, so you're under on Buffalo. Yeah, but 12 and 5 is a good year for this team. I know they play the first play schedule every year, but I feel like teams are gunning for them a little more. I do like that road schedule, though. I really do.

11:44Bill Simmons:Well, let me ask you this. You don't have to say the team, but do you have a team finishing with a better record than that in the AFC?

11:48Cousin Sal:In the AFC? No, I do not. So that's one seed.

11:52Bill Simmons:So you think that could be the one seed?

11:53Cousin Sal:And I mean, then they can tank against the Jets there.

11:56Bill Simmons:Well, that was one other thing I was thinking with the Jets. Because if it's like 12 and 4 and they have the one seat at stake, maybe they go for that game. So I'm going over for them. Next up is going to be the New England Patriots. So we talk about this every year. The kind of can't believe they made the playoffs list, which is basically anybody with odds from, I would say, maybe plus 120 to plus 250. 2024, two teams in this range that made the playoffs. Tampa was plus 144. Pittsburgh, plus 194. The year before, Green Bay, plus 138. The year before, Miami, plus 142. And the Giants with Danny Dimes, plus 225.

12:38Bill Simmons:So we know we're getting at least one team, probably two, from this list, which is, I won't read all the odds, but Arizona, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New England's plus 160. We were about to talk about Seattle, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Chicago, Dallas. Miami is plus 220. Carolina is plus 250. I'm guessing two to three teams from that list, right?

12:57Cousin Sal:I was going to say three to four total out, three to four in. But yeah, maybe three.

13:03Bill Simmons:So I have the Pats over and I actually have them in the playoffs.

13:06Cousin Sal:Yeah.

13:07Bill Simmons:And you can't call me Homer because last year I was adamant they were going to be the worst team in the league. No, it's fine. Somehow they were until the last week. Yeah. Joe Milton had the game of his life.

13:15Cousin Sal:I spent all summer trying to figure out a way to take them under. Because, well, this number is another one that stuck between 7.5 and 8.5, right?

13:22Bill Simmons:It was 7.5 for a while, and then it kind of bumped. And now it's like a legitimate 8.5.

13:26Cousin Sal:Yeah, so I think they win nine games. I'm not going to shit on them. It's so much more fun if you think they're going to be great, and then they just fail. But better coach, upgraded in free agency. They drafted well on paper. And that schedule, seven of the first nine teams under.500 last year. Like, forget about tanking for picks. Like some of these teams tanked for a better schedule and it worked. It really is spectacular. Number two easiest schedule versus number two toughest last year. And they're favored in 11 games. So if you're giving them nine wins, you're not being a homer. They're favored in 11 games.

13:57Bill Simmons:And that was the case from the, I bet on them pretty early, you know, AFC North, NFC South, and then the fourth place schedule. And you just go through and you're like, all right, I think we can beat them. Yeah, I think we can beat them too. This is the team that checks the most boxes for new coach, easy schedule. Basically what Washington had last year. You could count Drake May as a new quarterback, even though he played 10 games last year. They loaded up. I was higher on them about three weeks ago. They spent a lot of money on the defense. And they have four guys that I gave points on defense.

14:30Bill Simmons:They had a great draft.

14:32Cousin Sal:That's what has to improve, right? They were dead last in pressure. Yeah, they're going to have a better defense.

14:37Bill Simmons:I don't think they can get to be a top five defense, but I think it can be top 10. And there definitely is a depth issue with them because our Lord and Savior, Bill Belichick, the drafts were just an abomination down the stretch there. And then Cole Strange ironically got waived. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you go back to Cole Strange, and I think I have this right. They trade out of the pick to Kansas City that Kansas City used to take Trent McDuffie, who's awesome. Right. Then they go to where they took Strange, and they took him right in front of George Karloftis. Right. So the Chiefs get these two guys who are like blue chip guys for them.

15:12Bill Simmons:And Belichick took a guard. It was weird when it happened. It was kind of like, are you trying to sabotage the Patriots? This is terrible. McVay famously laughed. So anyway, all those drafts.

15:23Cousin Sal:Boo-hoo is what I have to say to that. But also, listen, let me give you this now before we move on. Speaking of Drake, remember last year? Is it a log? Well, last year I got you, do you remember what I got you? It was a signed. Yeah, signed pylon. Pylon. Where is that, by the way? I need that for the studio. Drake May signed the pylon. Uh-oh. And this year, it's a signed Drake May pylon that I found in a freaking closet that they were going to empty into a dumpster. It's the same gift? It's the same thing. I'm not letting you throw that out. I'm following that thing. I didn't want to throw that out.

15:56Cousin Sal:What bad mojo you would have. The Patriots would have had five. Oh, it's great. It was about... I rescued a pylon. I mean, it was really... Oh, we moved studios like 17th. All right. Go ahead.

16:06Bill Simmons:This looks great there.

16:07Cousin Sal:Go ahead, go. He's laughing. He knows it's not staying there. He knows it's not staying.

16:10Bill Simmons:Look how great this is.

16:12Cousin Sal:That had gone. He would have won four games this year if that went in the trash. Can I give you the Pats' first four?

16:17Bill Simmons:Yeah. I know you know it already. Home Raiders at the Dolphins, which the Pats don't have a great history yet. Home Steelers, home Panthers. Mild 4-0 possibilities. There's also, oh, my God, I can't believe we're 1-3, and now we're playing Buffalo in Buffalo on Sunday night. I thought the season was going to go better. The case for the Pats, beyond all the stuff we mentioned, is that the AFC kind of sucks. And we're going to have a weird six seed and we're going to have a weird seven seed. And you can talk yourself into eight teams. You'd be like, I like the Bengals. Well, their defense is going to be awful.

16:54Cousin Sal:Yep.

16:55Bill Simmons:Right? So, all right, go take the Bengals. There's something wrong with every team. And a tougher schedule.

17:00Cousin Sal:Yeah. That seven seed, I had like four teams, I think, at nine and eight. And I did a weird tiebreaker and have the Patriots advancing for the playoffs.

17:07Bill Simmons:How many teams did you have in a six-seat or seven-seat slot? Because I got to the point where I test drove Indianapolis. No. And this is when they had Richardson. No. I test drove them for a second. I'm like, ah, and Tyler Warren. And then I was like, oh, my God, get me out of this car. What am I doing?

17:26Cousin Sal:You don't even wear a seatbelt. That is dangerous shit. Awful. Test driving Richardson. Yeah. So two other things just quickly.

17:33Bill Simmons:I think the defense is going to be actually pretty good and maybe even really good.

17:37Cousin Sal:They get Landry as a Vrabel guy, get him in free agency.

17:41Bill Simmons:Vrabel has made the two coaches that seem, and I could maybe throw in Pete Carroll too, but have come in and feel like they've changed culture immediately are him and Ben Johnson. Like you read the Ben Johnson stuff or hear the stories and it's just like a different team. They had Iberflus last year. We had the worst coach in the league, which is saying something because Dennis Allen was there. I don't even think Mayo is going to ever be in football again.

18:03Cousin Sal:Right.

18:04Bill Simmons:Right? And it was just a mess. The GM was a mess. A lot of the dumb contracts they gave out, they're already trying to get out of. So Vrabel came in. He cleaned it up. But look, I really believe in Drake May. We talked about him a bunch last year on the pod.

18:17Cousin Sal:Not a signed pile on, but him as a player. Not that right here.

18:22Bill Simmons:I really believe he's talented. My one fear with him is just him taking dumb hits because he kept doing that last year.

18:28Cousin Sal:Yeah.

18:28Bill Simmons:Can he stay in the field for 17 games? But I genuinely think this could be a breakout thing. I have them at 10 and 7. I think he'll be good.

18:36Cousin Sal:He's as good, I think, as Bo Nix. I'll say that now. I'm sure I'll get shit for it. But, you know, they're not going to lose because of him. No. If anything, it's a defense. I think he could be better than Bo Nix. You have 10 and 7. It's a lot to turn around, though. That defense was really rough. That's a four-win team. What did they have? And you can thank all those coaches for giving you a terrible schedule.

18:52Bill Simmons:But we're talking about new coach bump is usually five wins. And then the schedule is super easy. Four or five wins, but then the schedule is crazy. I'll give you the wins. Raiders, Dolphins, one of two with Steelers-Panthers. I think they beat the Saints, Browns, Falcons, Jets, Giants home Monday night.

19:17Bill Simmons:Jets, Dolphins last week. I think that's 10.

19:20Cousin Sal:Yeah, I have nine. You have 10. You know what? You just don't want a dumb thing in Miami. Oh, they played them too early. It was 108 on the turf. They made them wear dark. They don't even have these jerseys. They made them wear it.

19:32Bill Simmons:Although, you probably want to catch Miami while they're seeming super dysfunctional. 10 plus wins, plus 190, if you like the 10. But I think the playoffs is probably a better bet at plus 160. 98 is going to make the playoffs with one of those spots.

19:48Cousin Sal:That's how I have it. I couldn't get a lot of these teams to 10, but one of them was a 17.

19:52Bill Simmons:The Pats had four guys on defense that I gave points to, Williams, Spillane, Davis, and Gonzalez. And this Spillane is already called hero. The only thing that has been great is Roman Anthony has completely taken Drake May's corner in Boston. It's like the next Prince of Boston. Yeah.

20:06Cousin Sal:Oh.

20:07Bill Simmons:So Drake May's got to pull that back.

20:08Cousin Sal:You want to take a win away, maybe? I was thinking about it. I was thinking like a Roman Anthony tax. There's a tariff going on between teams. Everybody loves Roman Anthony.

20:17Bill Simmons:Drake May's like, guys, I just got here. I ready to get your Drake May jersey.

20:21Cousin Sal:We'll be done in late September. It'll be all right.

20:24Bill Simmons:Jets, six and a half. This was five and a half at one point. the over for six and a half is plus 120. They really wanted to do the under. Eight plus wins is plus 190. If you think they're a playoff team, if you believe in Justin Field, plus 470. They were 5-12 last year. That feels around where they're going to be again. Here's my big question. Is there any way to make Justin Fields a winning QB? I just don't see it. I just don't think he's accurate enough. And we saw it in Pittsburgh where he's in a great situation. And they kind of bailed on him after five games. He just wasn't good enough.

21:02Cousin Sal:He holds the ball too long. And that almost could be the number one metric you look at for quarterbacks.

21:07Bill Simmons:That's a Shadir thing now. Yeah.

21:08Cousin Sal:I know he runs better than any of those guys. But, you know, he can luck into winning games. But I don't think he's going to be the reason they win games. I know Garrett Wilson, they had the thing in Ohio State. But I think they're going to be a frisky team that's going to win six games. But I don't see anything more than that. It's just kind of tough. And, you know, Aaron Glenn's good. Replaces Salah and Ulbrich. They have a new OC in there. The Lions pass coordinator. Hackett's gone. All that stuff is good. They re-signed Sauce Gardner. I'm looking at their...

21:39Bill Simmons:The receivers are... The receiver room is tough.

21:42Cousin Sal:Yeah.

21:42Bill Simmons:The Brees Hall, Braylon Allen thing. Braylon Allen's a big fantasy sleeper right now. The fact that they thought they had this really special running back in Brees Hall. Now he's going to be a third down running back? Yeah.

21:54Cousin Sal:I don't know. They signed a couple of cheap secondary players, but I don't know. I don't see Fields taking them. We'll know week one, right? We'll kind of know. I mean, will we know against the Steelers?

22:05Bill Simmons:That's going to be huge and fun. That's the other thing I really did not like about the Jets. Steelers home. Good defense they're going against. Bills home at Bucs and then at Dolphins on a Monday night. But that feels a little owned for us. I'm just... Both of us were out on Fields last year. I guess that if you're going anti-regression, they blew six fourth quarter leads last year. They had a bizarre coaching situation with eight kids. Sal got bounced.

22:34Cousin Sal:Is that why they have two primetime games this year versus six last year? Yeah. I think that might be better for them, actually.

22:40Bill Simmons:They took that memo pretty high, the offensive lineman.

22:44Cousin Sal:Yeah.

22:45Bill Simmons:What was he, seventh? Pretty rocky preseason. There were some tough videos with him. And it seems like the guy that Saints got, Kelvin Banks, was actually a little more reliable.

22:55Cousin Sal:Yeah, they lose Devontae Adams, DJ Reed, who's arguably better than Stevens. I don't know who they got. Kinlaw's gone. Hassan Redick wasn't a good fit there. But yeah, the tackle's a good run and pass protector, but it might have reached out.

23:12Bill Simmons:Yeah, I'm around. I'm under here. And I'm actually right at the number. I'm 6-11 for them.

23:18Cousin Sal:Yeah, that's right.

23:20Bill Simmons:So the new coaches, Vrabel, Glenn for the Jets, Cohen for the Jags, P. Carroll replacing our guy Antonio Pierce, Ben Johnson for Iberflus, your team, which we'll talk about in part two, and then your guy Kellen Moore. So we only had seven new coaches. Usually it feels like we have like ten.

23:42Cousin Sal:Well, the next team we're about to talk about might have a new coach in like three weeks.

23:46Bill Simmons:Miami, over seven and a half. I bet this immediately I still can't believe the over is 7.5 I thought it would drop to 6 by now playoffs to make it they're plus 225 to finish 4th place in the AFC is plus 220 enticing we might have a couple 4th place bets with them they were 8-9 last year there's some alt bets if you really like a season from hell for them can go like under 4 4.5 wins plus 4.90 under 5.5 wins plus 260 That was my first question to you. Will Mike McDaniel be our first coach fired? Is there anyone else you would pick as a bet?

24:26Cousin Sal:I mean, he's begging for it. I think Dayball lasts. I'm trying to look at it. I saw it. We talked to this. There's a lot of Giants. Good buzz, though. Dayball would surprise me. They might give him another year just because of the quarterback situation. But McDaniel, what was his thing? He talked about we're narrower to death. We're closer to death. No one's begging to be fired more than Mike McDaniel. We're closer to death. Like, he's got to – I just don't like this team. The only time I like it is when Tyreek Hill is at his healthiest. But if you look at the metrics, he does not fit on this team because Tua is so injury-prone with however many concussions.

25:03Cousin Sal:He's got to throw it quick. Your speedster means a lot less, right? Right.

25:07Bill Simmons:He should be on, like, the Falcons with Panics just gunning it to him.

25:11Cousin Sal:He should go somewhere else. Plus, he has a 98-speed on Madden now, and that's going to tear him up all year. Wow, they dropped him? Yeah, yeah. Oh, my God. Yeah, so that makes me drop. I still gave them six wins because it wasn't – you gave them like four or something.

25:23Bill Simmons:I was five and 12. Oh, you are? Okay.

25:25Cousin Sal:All right. I mean, McDaniel, I think, is going to be fired by Halloween.

25:28Bill Simmons:The only case for them is so many people have talked about how much they didn't like – I mean, their defensive backs, awful. Maybe the worst secondary in the league. Bad offensive line, plus Tua. So he's just going to be getting rid of the ball right away. They're not going to be able to cover anybody. So if they're going to fall behind, and then it's just going to be like everybody coming at Tua. And it seems like their schedule gets harder as the year gets along. So if they start out, even if they're 3-4, they're in some trouble. But 2-5 would be not great. They're playing the second-place schedule, so they have Indy and the Chargers and Washington and that group.

26:07Cousin Sal:Yeah, six of the first eight are against teams that didn't make the playoffs, but I just don't like. I mean, I looked at it. They had the most holding penalties in the league last year. How do you do that with a quarterback who's getting rid of the ball before he even has it? You're playing a speed offense.

26:20Bill Simmons:I thought they were really sloppy last year. The case for them would be healthy to a season. They got a left tackle they liked. That guy Patrick Paul. And then the pass rush is back. A lot of guys hurt last year. They went beefy. They went big. Throw the ball and rush the passer.

26:35Cousin Sal:I don't see it. They drafted a lot of big guys. They actually drafted a guy. What's the guy with it? I got to find his name here. Zeke Biggers was a guy they drafted. Sounds like a WWE receiver.

26:50Bill Simmons:I wrote this down. I know JJ's talked about this a bunch of times. Sorry, JJ. But the Dolphins just fall through the cracks for the 21st century NFL train wrecks. Their last playoff win, I went back and I watched it. 23-17 overtime over the 2000 Colts and Peyton Manning. and it's this crazy Lamar Smith game where he has like 40 carries and then he runs into the end zone for the win and they cut to some coach I think it's Weinstad I can't remember that was their last playoff win they've won one AFC's title this century they have five playoff appearances and they've had 11 head coaches

27:26Cousin Sal:if their owner was a little more of an asshole they would be the Cowboys like people would be talking about them and not Dallas but it's Serena William right? who's the owner? I don't know Steven Ross? yeah anyway

27:39Bill Simmons:Anyway, they're terrible, and I think they're going to be. So we both have six. Is there a – I think this is like six to one. Buffalo, Pats, Jets, Dolphins, exact order. Did we bet this already?

27:50Cousin Sal:I think it's on there as a special. Yeah. I think we're going to do a few of those. Who screws that up? Well, that's what you want, right? You want to know the first place team and the last place team. I think we're both keyed in on who those are going to be, and then you figure out second.

28:04Bill Simmons:I feel like we know the first two, and then it's like three or four. The crap shoot. All right, we're going to take a break, then we're going to hit the AFC Central. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Week one of college football is finally here, and FanDuel is kicking things off with a no-sweat bet just for you. That means you can place any bet on college football this week, and if it doesn't hit, you get it back in bonus bets, whether you're riding with your alma mater or backing a top-ten matchup. FanDuel is you covered with live betting, game props, alternate lines, and more.

28:34Bill Simmons:So bet confidently because with no-sweat bet, even your first miss comes with a second chance. Download the Fando app now or head to Fando.com slash BS my initials to get started. You must be 21 plus in president select states or 18 plus in president DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming. Opt-in required refund issued as a non-retrialable bonus bet that expires seven days after receipt. Max refund$5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply including token expiration. See terms at sportsbook.fando.com. Game problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

29:15Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Summer is here and you can now get almost anything you need for your sunny days delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost? Well, you can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered. I love chicken parmesan. A day in the sun? No. A bottle of rum? Yes. Uber Eats can definitely get you that. Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. And now for a special part of today's show.

29:50Bill Simmons:It's called Forward Thinkers of the Game. It's brought to you by Workday, where we talk about the football players who we think are going to bring something fresh to the field when the season kicks off. Like Ashton Gentry. Ashton Gentry. I can barely speak on the Raiders. small but powerful, crazy running back, plays three downs, might be the best fantasy football running back by the end of the year. He's one of them. Could Drake May, could he be the next Josh Allen? Could he take Josh Allen and become Josh Allen 2.0? Might happen. Could Ekbuka on the Buccaneers eventually become the most reliable rookie receiver and maybe one of the most reliable receivers in the league?

30:29Bill Simmons:You never know. That's why we play this season because we get to find this stuff out in real time. When you're a forward thinker, the only thing you're afraid of is business as usual. Workday is the AI platform that transforms the way you manage people and money today so you can transform tomorrow. Workday, moving business forever forward. Learn more at workday.com. Coming back, I had my first old guy mistake at the end of the last segment. I called it the AFC Central. Has it ever been the AFC Central? Well, boomer, you call it whatever you want. Yeah, yeah, it was. Like way back, right? I'm not crazy.

31:02Bill Simmons:Houston Oilers. Sadly, it's now called the AFC North. Baltimore, 11 and a half is the over. They are minus 155 to win the division, a number that kind of doesn't seem risky enough. I almost feel like they should be like two to one. Plus 350 for the conference, plus 650 for the Super Bowl, plus 340 for the one seed. They were 12 and five last year. My question to you, is this just the James Harden Rockets, this Ravens team? Great regular season every year. A lot of stats. Super fun. Very unique with Lamar. And then in the playoffs, something happens.

31:40Cousin Sal:It might be, but it was James Harden's fault, right? It's not Lamar's fault. It's not Lamar's fault. At least not last year. Like Josh Allen, if you look. By the way, between 2020 and 2024, the best five-year run for any team without winning a Super Bowl, Buffalo and Baltimore. And it's unfair to give him shit for the shortcomings. 42 touchdowns, four interceptions. Can we give him shit for two years ago

32:00Bill Simmons:when they absolutely crushed our bank accounts? We could do that.

32:04Cousin Sal:Or when he took his shit. He left the game to take his shit. But the margin's so thin. It's always like a toe in bounds or Andrews drops an easy ball. When is that going to end, right? Maybe this is a year, but we're just talking over-unders here, right?

32:17Bill Simmons:Well, Mallory, somebody took them in our Ringer Fantasy Draft. Mallory Rubin, Giant Ravens fan. She kind of winced. She was like, ooh, that's not... Really? That's somebody who's not following the offseason. They did draft Malachi Starks. Their pass rush still looks pretty weak. They did not lose really any games to injury last year. Did you see that one? They had by far the fewest in the league. And then the other thing, if you're going to worry about them, is just that Justin Tucker thing is officially over. That stability of, I mean, it was really ending last year. Right. The stability of having these awesome special teams, home field, moving to a slightly different...

32:58Cousin Sal:Oh, but he sucked last year.

32:59Bill Simmons:He did. Yeah. But it's just like, you have to factor that in now, where the special teams are always lights out, and now they're not.

33:04Cousin Sal:Yeah, but I think that's a good trade-off between injury luck and bad kicker luck, special teams luck. True. So, I like Mike Green, their second-round pick from Marshall. He had 17 sacks last year. A little troubled. That's probably why he went in the second round. Yeah, but he could be good. I mean, it's all like, you know, they have five playoff teams in the first six weeks before they're by, and at that game against Buffalo in Buffalo, that's Ohio State-Texas to start next Sunday, right? And it doesn't get better than that.

33:34Bill Simmons:It's incredible. Yeah. I had them at 30 for points, so my weird wacky... What? My weird ranking wins this year?

33:43Cousin Sal:My weird player-coach draft system

33:46Bill Simmons:that helped me do really well last year. So I had them even one point higher than the Bills. And as you said, it looked like they hit their draft a little bit. But so if you're going to ding him, at some point there, Kenry's getting old. I don't know. It's just like a LeBron thing. This just keeps going until he's 40. But he looked awesome last year.

34:06Cousin Sal:Yeah.

34:07Bill Simmons:I just don't see any scenario where they don't win this division.

34:10Cousin Sal:I'm with you. I have them at 11 wins. What'd you have them at?

34:14Bill Simmons:I have them at 12 and 5.

34:16Cousin Sal:Okay. And I have them as an over.

34:18Bill Simmons:And you could even talk me into 13 and 4. I think them or Buffalo finishes 13 and 4. and I'm leaning toward maybe Buffalo being the one that does that. So one thing with their schedule, the AFC North plays the East and the NFC North. And then they also play Casey Houston and the Rams. They have the Thanksgiving game. They're home against Cincinnati and Thanksgiving. There's a little easy stretch they have here where they go, week 12 Jets home Bengals home Steelers home at Bengals Pats home and it comes like right when you would need it and I think I could see them doing the like start out two and two like they're at Bills home Lions week three at Chiefs week four rough I could see like a two and two oh what's wrong and then they win like their last 10 throw the Bears in that stretch

35:10Cousin Sal:too that's how I wrote that down that starts off that that run of whether they can go four or five and oh there yeah

35:16Bill Simmons:okay next team The Bengals. So going back to our kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs list. Right. Which, oh, wait, I didn't talk about that yet. So last year, if you put everybody from basically even odds to plus 160, last year we had four teams on this list that missed the playoffs with plus odds. Miami plus 128, the Jets plus 138, Atlanta plus 152, and Dallas plus 164. Where you're like, I kind of can't believe they missed it. the year before there were three teams and the year before there was one. I have a bunch of possibilities here, including Cincinnati, who is a plus one 18. And I have them right around the seven seed, but not quite either eight, nine, nine, and eight.

36:03Bill Simmons:They're overrunners nine and a half. I'm under Sal.

36:07Cousin Sal:I wanted to be under because I hate that everybody loves this team. And it's kind of the same thing over and over. They lose that first week. Doesn't matter if they played, but they lost to the Patriots. They lost to the Browns, one inferior teams the first week. We got a whiff of their offensive line again. Remember that when it just disappears? We got that in preseason. I know you don't want to give that too much credit, but last year they scored 26 a game and allowed 26 a game. So it could be that other than the quarterback and receivers and Hendrickson, everything could be bad. It's absolutely a case that could happen.

36:41Bill Simmons:I had this question for you. did the Bengals achieve true perfection as a perfect fantasy team, guys team with no chance of being a real life playoff threat?

36:55Cousin Sal:Interesting.

36:56Bill Simmons:This team is destined to be 8 or 9 or 9 and 8. Their defense is going to be terrible. We just know it's going to be bad. They're going to be in shootouts all the time. Burrow if he stays healthy will I think be the best stats quarterback.

37:09Cousin Sal:He's top four, right? Nobody can get into that top four for years, I think. How many years has it been?

37:16Bill Simmons:Daniels, maybe. If Daniels goes 12-5 again this year, I think he enters the combo.

37:21Cousin Sal:Because Hurts is right there. I don't think anyone breaks that anytime soon.

37:24Bill Simmons:So people were like, well, their D might be better this year. What's the evidence? They're 31st last year in defense, but they had a way easier schedule last year. They played the following quarterbacks last year. Jacoby Brissett, Danny Dimes, Jameis, Deshaun, Minshew, Ritter, Thompson Robinson, your guy Cooper Rush, Mason Rudolph, Will Levis, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson. And they were 31st in defense. Right. And they were like, yeah, we drafted Shamar Stewart. It's going to be a little bit better. Is it? I think I want to change my pick now.

37:57Cousin Sal:You can change it. I don't know. No, I got to go. I want you to be right. I want us to do really well. No, I have to. See, what I did is what you don't do. I go through every single matchup. I did that this year because you made me feel bad. No, I didn't do that. I didn't go through every matchup. But your shit added up. I did. I think mine added up. I'm proud of you. good because last year you put like three teams in the Super Bowl or something. It worked. I was 27 and five. That's true.

38:16Bill Simmons:Maybe I should have not counted.

38:18Cousin Sal:They have a new DC. This guy, Al Golden, is a, is a DC for Notre Dame. So at a rumo or at a rumo, I'm going to say it wrong. Louie and a rumo. Yeah. It was good once. Just, I don't know. Remember Lombardi doing 15 minute monologues about how great Louie and a rumo was. He's got a job. They fired him. They end easy at Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. They, they better go to an O against Cleveland and, and Jacksonville. Otherwise, we know what we're getting there. But I'm reluctantly taking 10 wins.

38:46Bill Simmons:They got Slayton to beef up their run to you a tiny bit, but it still looks like a team that can't stop the run. Their offensive line is bottom five in the rankings. It's like a legit bottom five offensive line, which is fine because Burrow's great, but there's real health things with him too. And that was the other thing. He's just going to get the shit kicked out of him again. and I don't want to bank on them winning 10 games with the offensive line and the defense. I'm not doing it.

39:15Cousin Sal:Warren Sharp, let's give him a shout-out because we do steal a couple of his things. Worst run support, 30th success rate. Worst run support. Everyone's drafting Chase Brown in the third round. Interesting that they had the third. Are they counting the sacks as negative yards or something? I don't know. 30th defense, 32nd O-line, pass block rate the last four years, which you mentioned.

39:35Bill Simmons:They're at Cleveland week one, home Jags week two. Got to win both. Perfect.

39:39Cousin Sal:Yeah. Except they start out slow every year. Right.

39:42Bill Simmons:So this is like the two people staring at each other.

39:45Cousin Sal:I'll keep it at 10. I want credit, though, if it goes under.

39:48Bill Simmons:I only had four guys with points for them in my ranking system. Burrow was an 8. Chase was a 5. Higgins was a 3. And Hendrickson was a 3.

39:59Cousin Sal:Yeah.

40:00Bill Simmons:I had a minus one for the offensive line, and they were an 18 with four people. The only one that was almost as lopsided was the Niners. where they just have five good guys and a great coach and nothing else. Right, right. So it's like a classic Stars and Scrobes team.

40:14Cousin Sal:The only thing I'll say is there were four and seven in one score games last year. Maybe they could turn that around. They did lose a couple of dumb games,

40:19Bill Simmons:but you also lose dumb games when your defense sucks.

40:22Cousin Sal:Dumb team, yeah.

40:23Bill Simmons:Pittsburgh, a team that every year I just blindly buy into the Tomlin thing. They are over eight and a half.

40:30Cousin Sal:Of course it's eight and a half. Can they just make that the Tomlin? Yeah. Make it the Tomlin total. Like we have the Jeff Fisher eight and eight. He gets those numbers. It's a Tomlin total. Let's Fandle make it 8.5 next year, too. That's it.

40:43Bill Simmons:5-1 for the division, plus 134 to make the playoffs. Under 6.5 wins, plus 240. Just want to point that out. They're 10-7 last year, but cratered down the stretch. The big question, will Aaron Rodgers, not only just will he be good, but will he finish the season? Is he playing football in mid-December for you?

41:06Cousin Sal:I think he does because he's annoying that way. And I kind of think he's the perfect quarterback for this team. Like, I love that Pittsburgh, that Steelers special, right? Which is like, you bet they're losing at half and they win the game. And it cashed five times last year. And it's like plus 600, plus 500, plus 600 every week. He's perfect for that. He gets off to such a slow start. He gets sacked. He had such garbage time numbers last year. So he's kind of like, he was 30th in sacks taken. first to third quarter number 30 EPA, fourth quarter number six EPA. This is your guy, Steelers. It may not have looked good in the rebuild, but that's what's going to happen, I think.

41:47Bill Simmons:Well, I wrote down, I think it would be one of the great over 40 achievements in any sport if this team goes like 10 and 7 and he's actually pretty good. I don't see it though. The offensive line, they got, I think, first year starters on both tackles. The skill position guys, We just did a fantasy draft. Nobody was clamoring to get Steelers. Warren was the tail end. People tried to talk to him. You even took Caleb Johnson. Maybe you got lucky with Caleb Johnson. They got the two tight ends. They have Friar Muth, and then they got Johnny Smith.

42:17Cousin Sal:Who, by the way, might be the best guy that the Dolphins had. But we'll see. You look at his stats.

42:23Bill Simmons:The Patriots had him. He was awful. He had this crazy, weird career year for the Dolphins. I don't know what's legitimate about it. And then Metcalf, who seems like just a bizarre fit with... with Rodgers. The only case you could make for them to get to nine wins is the defense. If the defense is really good again, which I have a feeling it's going to take a little bit of a step back because it's older. How many have? They play Cleveland twice. They play Indy, Fields, Sam Darnold, JJ McCarthy, Drake May, Caleb, and Tua. So they play two of the three bad quarterback teams three times. and they play a bunch of young quarterbacks.

43:04Bill Simmons:And could their defense, could they get a couple of those dumb wins? I'm leaning more toward... I just think the schedule's harder. The defense is going to be a little worse. And the way they finished the year last year, to me, this feels like just kind of a, man, this is depressing, blah, Steelers season.

43:23Cousin Sal:Well, I just can't move them off that number. I think they're 8-8 going into that last week. So are you going over or under? I'm going under. I think they lose... I went under. to Baltimore week 18 or whatever it is. And that's that on January 4th. I mean, they really have to get out of the gates. They have to win that Jets game because their last four, I think they have Baltimore times two, Buffalo, Detroit, and Cleveland, whatever.

43:45Bill Simmons:Second half of their season, they got a night game in week 10 against the Chargers, home Bengals, at Bears, home Bills, at Ravens, home Dolphins Monday night, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens. It's real tough, yeah. Yeah, so there's two easy ones out of nine weeks there. from a talent standpoint. I had five chippers for them, including Watt, who's still a four. People seem to like their draft a little bit, but I just don't see any weapons for them. It's going to be another 16 to 13 type thing, but I don't think they're offensive. I should have said this sooner. I just don't think Rodgers wants to get hit anymore.

44:19Bill Simmons:That was the guy we watched last year, and we see this. You and I always bet this with boxing and UFC when guys hit a certain point. They don't want to take the risks the same way. I don't know how you play quarterback.

44:29Cousin Sal:That old line's got to be good. He's not running for anything. I mean, they get Metcalf and everything, but they lost. Nobody loves them in fantasy, really. They lost Najee and Pickens. Those guys had 67 red zone targets, by far the best top of the team's positions last year.

44:45Bill Simmons:Well, if you talk to a Steelers fan, and thank God we don't know any Steelers fans. Yes, yes. Thank God we don't know one of them. I don't know how we did it. They had the GM from the 2019 to 22. Their drafts are really bad. It was like a meme going around on Twitter or somewhere where they took Pickett first. They took Najee Harris in the first round. They have just swings. They traded a first-round pick for Minka Fitzpatrick. He's gone. So these are all the guys that would be the stars of your team now, and they don't really have those guys anymore. So they have these guys in their 30s, and that's it.

45:18Cousin Sal:And yet, it's just like an experiment because they're going to be 8-8 going into that last round.

45:22Bill Simmons:I have them under. Okay, last team, the Cleveland Browns, over, under 4.5.

45:31Bill Simmons:fourth place is minus 240. I think those are the best odds for fourth place or the highest odds of anybody. Playoffs plus 880. Last year, they were 3-14. Will this ever not be the dumbest team in the league? Like even the Travis Hunter trade, good trade. Trade it, you move back three spots, you took Mason Graham, you got all these picks, and then they just fucking lose their minds. They take the wrong Ohio State running back who isn't even on the roster. They could take Henderson, who's... I forgot to mention when we talked about the Patriots, but he looks like he's going to be a star. A good kick return, sure.

46:06Bill Simmons:No, he's going to be a star. He's going to be a three-down back. The Pats have speed with Diggs and Henderson, and I think people don't really realize. Anyway, they could add Henderson. They opt into the Shadur soap opera for reasons that remain unclear.

46:19Cousin Sal:After picking a quarterback. Yeah, after picking another quarterback.

46:24Bill Simmons:It's just a bizarre team, and I don't understand. Stefanski, I think we all like. The media nerds seem to like Andrew Barry. How are you this stupid every year? It has to be the owner.

46:37Cousin Sal:I was driving over here and I was like, damn it, how did I give them? I gave them five wins, which puts it over. But I was like, how the - Did you change your mind? This is a team, they signed Bailey Zappi today. Yeah. Two weeks ago, they signed Snoop Huntley. And these guys have an excellent chance to start, like week five. Right. Instead, it's Flacco.

46:58Bill Simmons:Did you see the Flacco-Dylan-Gabriel photo? Where it looked like Dr. Evil and Mini-Me? Yeah, it's great.

47:03Cousin Sal:And by the way, they want Chador Sanders to be good. You pointed it out. This team has not made a good decision in decades. Of course they want their where they got Chador Sanders. All this nonsense that they're putting the shitty offensive linemen out there with them. They want to look foolish with the Chador thing too? No. Let's get crazy. So they start with Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions. And then they're off to London. then let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say 0-4.

47:27Bill Simmons:Yeah. Bengals at Ravens, Packers at Lions, Vikings in London. Can we go 0-5? At Steelers week six? Can we just make it an 0-6 right there? What game are they winning out of those? Why do I have them?

47:39Cousin Sal:They're not going to outscore the Bengals. I think they'll win something stupid like at Vegas or something.

47:44Bill Simmons:You're crazy. I am hard under for them. All right. So you think they're in the running for worst team of the year? Yeah.

47:51Cousin Sal:First pick.

47:52Bill Simmons:I think them or New Orleans. And that's the other thing with this is who's going to start tanking when we get closer. I just think, wow.

47:59Cousin Sal:I don't know why I had fun.

48:00Bill Simmons:I did like Mason Graham. I wouldn't have been upset if the Pats got him. But him and Garrett, that's a little something. But to not have your second round pick, to do this Hunter trade, but then not end up with the 36th pick, what are you doing?

48:12Cousin Sal:It's outrageous. And they're going to get things like$80 million next year or re-restructure Watson. Does Watson take another snap for this team? I don't think so.

48:23Bill Simmons:I gave them a minus two for quarterbacks. Judy, Njoku, Garrett, and Ward. Did you know about the Belly Zappi signing when you did that?

48:30Cousin Sal:Or maybe you didn't know.

48:32Bill Simmons:Should I do a minus three? Yeah. Vikings, Browns, London is a classic we hate you, England game. That might be one of the worst ones. Where are the Jags? Are they not allowed in London anymore?

48:45Cousin Sal:No, that one game, I think. They must be going, right? Don't they? They have one game. They just don't have the back-to-back. I think Minnesota has it. Oh, yeah, they're going week seven. Yeah.

48:51Bill Simmons:London's like, can you just push it later?

48:54Cousin Sal:I reluctantly took it over. That was dumb. But I think you can get under five and a half still, right?

49:00Bill Simmons:For almost the same. Yeah, with some juice. Well, I'm going under four and a half. All right. Let's take another break and then we'll do the AFC set. Let's do it. This episode is brought to you by ChatGPT. Imagine you're running a professional sports team. Nice. Imagine the player contract report is due today. Not so nice. You've got performance notes from the coaching staff. You've got a salary spreadsheet from your analyst, three rounds of back and forth emails with the agent, and all of it is scattered absolutely everywhere. Well, that's where ChatGBT work comes in. It's a new way to use ChatGBT for bigger multi-step projects.

49:37Bill Simmons:Give ChatGBT work access to your apps and files and can create real work documents. For instance, spreadsheets, slides, structured reports. You can bring all those to your next meeting and when you don't need answers, you need help just getting the work across the finish line. Chat GPT work can move your projects forward while you stay in control. Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started. Just go to chatgpt.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans. Stream the biggest moments in sports live on Fox One. The biggest names, the biggest games, the biggest matchups.

50:16Bill Simmons:Watch live or catch up on your schedule. At home or on the go, never miss a moment. All on Fox 1. Stream now. AFC South, everyone and their brother is Houston winning this thing, and yet their over-under is only 9.5 wins. The AFC South is not a good division. They are minus 150 for the playoffs, 13-1 be the one seed. 12-1 if you want to get excited about CJ Stroud plus their defense

50:42Cousin Sal:and maybe they get lucky with some rookie receivers that they have.

50:46Bill Simmons:There's a Joe Mixon situation that everybody who plays fantasy has been on all summer. He's out for the first four games. It doesn't look like we're seeing him this year. It seems like he has a fucked up foot. Chubb's there. They just have a bunch of... They're basically like what your Dallas running back room last year. Sorry. That's true. Here's my question. Can they have the best defense in the league? I took them in our Ringer Fantasy League. I took them in Philly as the two defenses. They put the AFC South six times. Just go 6-0 against the AFC South.

51:12Cousin Sal:Yeah.

51:13Bill Simmons:Go 6-0. You just go 6-0. No, you go four and seven against everyone else. You're 10 and seven.

51:18Cousin Sal:Yeah. I mean, they did a nice job with D 'Amico Ryans with the defense last year. And then, you know, Danil Hunter now and Stingley. I think they're going to be all right. Will Anderson. And those are good bookends for edge rushers there. So they have a decent offensive line. But well, they traded Tunsil.

51:33Bill Simmons:And they seem like they were OK with trading Tunsil. Right.

51:36Cousin Sal:Which is weird. Yeah, they lose Tunsil and Diggs. Like, those are the big ones, I guess. But here's the thing. They weren't very good last year. The best game was that playoff game that they lost, right? And CJ Stroud, I mean, you don't have to believe me. They had how many – they moved down big time in primetime games. What was it? Right. They had five. Now they have two or something like that. Their takeaways, like you said, defense is what kept them in the games. So this offense was not smart. They have a new OC, a new lineman, and they have a new wide receiver in there that threw in there.

52:07Cousin Sal:I don't know. He was sacked 52 times, second worst. So hopefully this offensive line thing works out, but I don't put him at 10.

52:15Bill Simmons:I have them over at 10 and 7, and really just because of the division. But I have them barely over, and I actually think that's good value that it's only 9.5, because I think this, especially with the Indianapolis quarterback situation, I just don't know who else is going to step up against them. Schedule is a little sneaky hard. The AFC South plays the West, and they play the NFC West. They play both Wests.

52:38Cousin Sal:Yeah.

52:39Bill Simmons:Which, technically, there's no bad teams out of those eight, but then it's crossed off by the fact that they're in the AFC South.

52:46Cousin Sal:Rams and Bucs, the stars, those two division winners, and they have to go to Baltimore early on. Five of the last six are indoors, so that's good for them. But I think it's a stay away, but I'll go under and I'll give them nine wins. Going under? Yeah, nine wins. Okay.

53:01Bill Simmons:I had them 21 for points. That's a lot. Including six guys on defense. Anderson, Hunter, Stingley, Lasseter, Bullock, and Petrae. Their secondary, if you're doing like best units their secondary is the best secondary in either conference. And they have the pass rush and Will Anderson still has one level to go. Their defense might be awesome this year.

53:25Cousin Sal:There's about three or four teams we could do this for. You already did them for one. These are the quarterbacks they played. Rush, Rudolph, Levis, Richardson times two, Drake May, Caleb Williams, Mack Jones, and Tua. So their defense is going to look pretty good after those.

53:43Bill Simmons:Right. This year, other than the AFC South, I mean, yeah, definitely a little bit harder this year. They have a couple tough road games, too, like at Seahawks on a Monday night and stuff like that, at the Ravens. I'd be surprised if they didn't get to 10 wins, but if they got to nine, I'd still probably win the division. Yeah. I have Jacksonville as the second-place team in this division until about two weeks ago. What happened to you? We'll get to the team that I actually have over them. Jacksonville, over 7.5. That's what you need to do. The division's plus 290. They were 4-13 last year, Sal.

54:24Bill Simmons:Plus 172 to make the playoffs this year. I wrote this down. They're paying Trevor Lawrence$55 million a year, and they don't have their 20-26 first. Is this an NBA team? This is like, they might as well be owned by Matt Ishpio. Yeah. Completely overpaying somebody who's not in the top 20 in his position. And he's taking up a giant part. It's basically the Bradley Beal deal.

54:50Cousin Sal:Yeah.

54:50Bill Simmons:And then trading all this stuff for Hunter. And they're like, yeah, we don't know how many snaps he's going to play. It's like, you didn't figure this out before you traded like a fucking entire draft to get this guy? He might. We'll play it by year? Really?

55:03Cousin Sal:I think this team does well for this owner that everybody hates. And it's hard to say that this is a prove it year for Lawrence. He's 26, which is about the age everybody comes to the league. Prove that he doesn't suck? Well, he's got his money already, so it's not like he's put up or shut up. They have new GM, new coaches, Liam Cohen. I mean, listen, much as you hate this team, you're the only fantasy owner in the country who has three Jaguars on a squad. Well, you know I love Thomas Jr.

55:28Bill Simmons:Yeah, all right. Bigsby was the end of the draft, and Lawrence was just whack-a-mole with one-hour quarterbacks.

55:34Cousin Sal:Yeah, he had a lot of – and look, he played 10 games last year. They weren't good. They were 3-10 in one-score games under Peterson. They have the sixth easiest strength of schedule now. It's tough to start.

55:45Bill Simmons:Sounds like you're talking yourself in and over.

55:47Cousin Sal:They're winning the division. How about that? The last six are Colts times two, Titans times two. Plus 290. And the Jets. There you go. Take it, Jags. You could turn things around in this division fairly quickly. And don't forget, before last year, they had back-to-back nine win years.

56:04Bill Simmons:First of all, first rule, don't trust the AFC South. second row, you hate the Jaguars I don't know if anyone's complained about them more than you except for maybe me because I had Lawrence and Fantasy but I mean how many times did we talk ourselves into betting in a stupid London game?

56:20Cousin Sal:I hate this division, you made us make a bet, I was like let's not pick any of the Souths until November we're already like two AFC South bets in, I know but we'll see

56:30Bill Simmons:from a talent standpoint, I only had Thomas, Hines Allen Olakun and Campbell plus if anyone hits in their draft. But it's not exactly like... You have the Colts better than that? No, the Colts I have right there. So the X factor obviously is Hunter. Can Liam Cohen fix Lawrence? Who knows? Right. All right, we'll do pie chart. Go ahead. What percent of the pie chart is Hunter's just incredible and playing both sides, and he's an awesome receiver, and he's a lockdown cornerback. Is there like a 10 % chance?

57:08Cousin Sal:No, I don't even think that much. I don't think that much. I don't think they draft. So what do you expect from him? A defensive player. He's a good defensive player and has a couple of Deionish wide receiver plays, but not a ton. I thought that trade was crazy. Yeah, probably. I don't like that trade,

57:21Bill Simmons:especially a team that doesn't have a lot of talent to do that. That's like, it's just a bonkers trade.

57:25Cousin Sal:I mean, we're doing over-unders for this year, though. It's probably a bad trade for 2026 and beyond.

57:30Bill Simmons:I feel safe going under with them. I have them at 6 and 11.

57:33Cousin Sal:10 and 7, baby.

57:34Bill Simmons:Yeah, I went under. Okay, Indianapolis, a team that I was over until the way the quarterback situation was handled the last few weeks, I'm like, what am I doing? So they're over seven and a half, division plus 340, playoffs plus 198. And honestly, I wrote down, did the QB situation already ruin their season? I think that's very possible. Could Indy be ready for the reset button triple crown in January? Coach QB, GM. Might be like the complete house cleaning. It feels like that's where we're heading. Interesting. Owner, too. Rest in peace. Yeah, I guess that already happened.

58:13Cousin Sal:I don't know. They seem to be taking shit for naming Daniel Jones the starter for the season, whereas they could have just said we're starting week one with Daniel Jones. But it's clear that he's their starter. It's clear they've quit on Richardson. Yeah, I mean, look, he had 13 starts in an era where these guys, Bo Nix and Dylan Gabriel, have like 40, 50 starts before they come in. So that was tough. He took himself out of the game, which I think, you know, sealed his fate. Like, right? Like, well, does this guy want to play? Like, no, he just told you he doesn't want to play. He sat out.

58:44Bill Simmons:He's been a little injury prone. Yeah. And then he's one of the most erratic passers. Shoulder, hip, concussions, all of it. Yeah. What's funny is I was reading up on that draft because I was like, what was the team that was trying to trade up for him? I couldn't remember. It was Minnesota.

59:00Cousin Sal:Oh, right, right, right.

59:01Bill Simmons:They let Godfather offer them for four, and they wouldn't do it. Think about that. Sometimes the best move is the one that falls through in the end. The other thing that's weird about this team, the receivers and the weapons don't match who they've settled on as quarterback. They had that Alex Pierce, who's a great deep threat, downs, and you want to kind of wing the ball with this team a little bit. It's Danny Dimes. Danny Dimes.

59:29Cousin Sal:who if he so when I was a match Richardson he was that's the one thing he could do he could sling it yeah but now it's yeah you're right it's a whole different ballgame during the 10 minutes when I

59:39Bill Simmons:was thinking trying to talk myself and then picking them as a seven seed I called a Giants fan friend of mine and I was like how bad was dimes last year and he was like completely different guy from 22 when he wasn't even awesome in 22 and he's like he was so bad we put in DeVito for him

59:55Cousin Sal:right

59:55Bill Simmons:DeVito just got waived yep he's on the Patriots now he's probably our backup

59:59Cousin Sal:wait a minute wait a minute you're right oh my god that's breaking news what DeVito on the Patriots it was broke two hours ago look at that ring look at those flowers your gym teacher's dating your butcher I don't know I'm trying to make it like it's a Taylor thing it's okay

1:00:20Bill Simmons:by the way Josh Jobs was was the ball was sailing all over the place the preseason and uh devito is actually probably better good you're gonna see him a lot so

1:00:32Cousin Sal:are you i'm going way under i think that they have a shot to be the worst team have four wins and you know in the running for i mean they end at seattle san francisco jacksonville and at houston nothing's going to be easy they lost freeze and kelly on the offensive line that's tough to replace that's the thing is they used to have this awesome o-line yeah and they just don't anymore

1:00:53Bill Simmons:So the one thing where we're like, well, at least I'll be able to block. They can't do that.

1:00:56Cousin Sal:They haven't won a season open in 11 years, and they start home against Miami and then play in Denver. This could be a disaster.

1:01:03Bill Simmons:Tyler Warren, I think we like.

1:01:04Cousin Sal:I do like him.

1:01:05Bill Simmons:I also like the under 5.5 wins at plus 250. I have them at 5 and 12. Okay. I don't see a situation where this team shocks us, but this is a team that fits the profile. for, whoa, nobody believed in this. Danny Dimes is back. It's just like we saw him play last year.

1:01:25Cousin Sal:What are we going to do with this coach, though?

1:01:28Bill Simmons:Steichen?

1:01:28Cousin Sal:Yeah, I mean, he's another one. I think he's top three for first fired.

1:01:32Bill Simmons:Oh, good point. I didn't even think of that. Yeah. So how would you rank him? And he's got Luana Rumo there, too.

1:01:38Cousin Sal:Mike, we're all going to die. McCarthy, number one. McDaniel, right? Mike McDaniel, number one.

1:01:42Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:01:43Cousin Sal:Mike McCarthy already got fired. Well, he didn't get fired.

1:01:45Bill Simmons:He just got unrenewed.

1:01:47Cousin Sal:They kept him around just long enough so they couldn't talk to Belichick or Vrabel or any of those guys. That was great. Smart.

1:01:53Bill Simmons:Career assistant Brian Schottenheimer. So McDaniel, number one. Would you put Steichen, too?

1:02:01Cousin Sal:McDaniel, one. Maybe Steichen, two.

1:02:04Bill Simmons:Because that's a good move by the GM to be like, hey, Richardson was a good pick. This guy fucked it up.

1:02:08Cousin Sal:Right. Hold on.

1:02:10Bill Simmons:And then Zach Taylor?

1:02:11Cousin Sal:Would you put Zach Taylor in there? Well, you don't have Dayball in there at all, huh?

1:02:15Bill Simmons:I like the Giants. But I guess he belongs just because the Giants fans actually have hope. So if they suck coming out of the gate, then he gets fired.

1:02:22Cousin Sal:Canales and Taylor. I mean, Taylor, I don't think anyone benefits from their good quarterback as much as Zach Taylor. I know. That guy could be trash.

1:02:29Bill Simmons:Last team in the division, Tennessee, over a six and a half. So here's why I really struggled, Sal. And I almost picked Tennessee to make the playoffs. And spoiler alert, I did not. I absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list, which basically is three to one odds and up. Last year we had three teams that made the playoffs. Minnesota plus 285, Washington plus 310, Denver plus 540. Three teams. Year before, Rams plus 285, Indy plus 350, Tampa plus 360, Houston plus 520. Four. Year before, 22. Jacksonville plus 450, Seattle five to one. That tells me we're going to have at least two teams from the following list.

1:03:15Bill Simmons:Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Browns. All those have odds three to one or worse. And Tennessee is a candidate. Tennessee is plus 390. And here's how I try to talk myself into it. It is a classic. What if Cam Ward is just good right away? It's CJ Stroud. It's Jay Daniels. He's just immediately good. I don't know if you've read the stories about he getting a fight with Jeffrey Simmons. He's showing up at five in the morning. Everybody's in there. He's just a leader of men. he's checking a lot of my boxes. The problem is we watched them last year. We watched them go 2-15 against the spread.

1:03:50Bill Simmons:We watched one of the worst coach teams of the decade. We're special teams definitely in the decade. And I can't back the coach. And that's why my train got off.

1:03:59Cousin Sal:And they play the AFC West and the NFC West, right? So you're not going to get outside of your division. You're not going to get too many freebies. Plus the Texans. Plus the Texans. And I'm with you. Like there's never once have we seen a guy so undervalued a number one overall pick, like go through it since, since we've been watching football forever. Caleb Bryce, Trevor, Kyler, Jared, Jameis, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton. Like just like buzz about a guy. It's insane. Like he has the sneak up on your factor. He really does. Is that he doesn't, doesn't get sacked a lot. That's what you like out of a, I think he said, got sacked like three or four times at Miami last year in college.

1:04:36Cousin Sal:but they have no units in the top half. That's the thing. Running back, wide receiver. It sounds like their offensive line might be better.

1:04:43Bill Simmons:And they feel like... I did a deep, deep, deep dive. And they're like, we figured out the offensive line. It's okay. It might be pretty good. And they have what? They added Jefferson and Lockett,

1:04:53Cousin Sal:and they have Ridley. Ridley's like their blue chipper.

1:04:56Bill Simmons:So the case against them, zero pass rush. They probably, other than Simmons, the worst front seven in the league, bet no receivers beyond Ridley. and I guess you could say that the special teams can't be worse. I just can't get there with the coach. I really wanted to. I wanted to try it. It's like, why would this team, like if they had Mike McDonald as their coach with Cam Ward, I would be like, I'm in. Nine and eight, seven seed. Let's go. Bad division. Let's ride this. But this is not a Dan Quinn with Jaden Daniels situation. This is not like having Vrabel with Drake May. I just can't do it.

1:05:32Bill Simmons:Did you give him six or seven? I did. I went hard over. Seven and ten. But I thought about nine and eight. Yeah. All right. Well, I am six.

1:05:40Cousin Sal:And that's a pretty good improvement from three. But six is under. Oh, all right. They're going to double their wins. They were two and six in one score games. You're under for the Titans. Was it six and a half? Yeah. This one's in the middle. Five and a half, six and a half. So whatever you want to call it.

1:05:55Bill Simmons:I'm giving them six. All right. So you're under. All right. Because I had over six and a half plus 115. Want to do one last check? let's do it this could be big because if it's 5.5 that's good for both of us really exciting stuff right now going to the FanDuel site no one can be watching people watching? no people are definitely they love this FanDuel has the win totals you can go right to Tennessee so look look what happens here you have under what? oh oh it moved we can do this great job

1:06:32Cousin Sal:It's a 5.5.

1:06:33Bill Simmons:It's a 5.5 now. This is great. I'm glad we did that. Over 5.5. So we're both over. Okay, we're both over. Over 5.5 is minus 140. It changed. No, we're sticking with that. So mark that at home. Sal, I'm glad we're aligned on this. Good, let's be on the same page. All right. That was such a riveting segment. We're going to have to take a break. The AFC West is here. Kansas City is here as usual. this one I really struggled with when I saw my notes from this the absolutely I cannot believe they missed the playoffs list

1:07:08Cousin Sal:missed the playoffs oh the list yeah yeah

1:07:10Bill Simmons:Philadelphia plus 270 KC plus 285 Baltimore plus 390 and Buffalo plus 520 so why am I listing those teams because every year for at least the last three somebody from a list like that missed the playoffs

1:07:25Cousin Sal:San Francisco last year

1:07:26Bill Simmons:yeah last year San Francisco year before Cincinnati plus 225 year before Green Bay plus 360. History tells us somebody's going to miss the list or somebody from this list will miss the playoffs. I don't think it's going to be Philadelphia. I don't think it's going to be Buffalo. I don't think it's going to be Baltimore. And I don't want to pick the Chiefs. So I think the streak ends. But I just wanted to flag it. I just wanted to flag it. If one of those four missed the playoffs, I think it would be the Chiefs. but come on. Chiefs over under 11.5. Division minus 105. Number one seed plus 380. And playoffs is minus 375.

1:08:05Bill Simmons:They're 8-1 to win the Super Bowl.

1:08:07Cousin Sal:If you look at every metric, this team should not have won 15 games. This team probably shouldn't have won 11 games. The nerds were

1:08:14Bill Simmons:outraged by this team. Oh, yeah. I think it was the biggest disparity between what the record should have been and what it was ever.

1:08:21Cousin Sal:22nd and red zone offense. you know, it's a futile exercise, right? Because they're not the best team. They know how to close. I feel like, you know, I've had three kids already and I know how, and that's going to be it. But they, you know, when the doctor, the doctor, I was so surprised that the doctor would come in the very last minute. I'm like, where's the doctor? Like, they're just there. Oh, he comes in like Mahomes. Yeah, it's Mahomes. It really is. He's 11-0 in one score game.

1:08:46Bill Simmons:Comes in with ready to snip stuff. Yeah. Yeah.

1:08:49Cousin Sal:15 wins going into week 18. Like, it's crazy. That is funny. The doctor is like Marilyn Rivera. Yeah. Think they should have music? Yeah, I think so. Oh, that's good. Entrance music. I remember being like, where is this guy or gal? I have no idea. So, yeah. So, I mean, yeah, they're an enigma. They lose Tooney. You know, Taylor wasn't great. They had Jalen Moore on the offensive line and Josh Simmons in the draft. Josh Simmons thing seems big. Yeah. So, I'm going to put them at 11, man. I think that's under.

1:09:20Bill Simmons:My question for you with the Chiefs. did Mahomes kind of need to be clubber-lined in that Super Bowl? Did he need it? Because he wasn't very good last year for him. I mean, yeah, I think he was six in MVP. Imagine that. 15 wins, six in MVP. And that's the thing. When I was struggling with who to put at the top of the QB pyramid, and Mahomes is just blinding because he's at the Super Bowls, but I was like, he definitely wasn't one of the best QBs last year. And even if you look at the deep passing stats for him, he was terrible with deep ball. And you could say like, well, his receivers and rice and you make excuses.

1:09:55Bill Simmons:No explosive plays. But he just wasn't good last year.

1:09:58Cousin Sal:Yep.

1:09:58Bill Simmons:For him. So did he need to be club or length?

1:10:02Cousin Sal:Yeah. You know, there's that whole metric where the losing team in the Super Bowl, that's when you write them off for the next year. So maybe that's why they fit in. But I just think they're so used to being in these games with two minutes left. They're so there every single time. They don't lose at home. Like I said, eight. no. It doesn't matter that they have the worst explosive play rate in the league and that they're, you know, I mean, I think you give the defense credit. That guy he'll never get.

1:10:26Bill Simmons:Your guy Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo will never get enough credit.

1:10:29Cousin Sal:He just won't. You know.

1:10:30Bill Simmons:Well, you know what else isn't getting enough credit? How brutal their schedule is from a travel standpoint.

1:10:37Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:10:38Bill Simmons:The AFC West lucked out. They got the AFC South. They got the NFC East. Right? Pretty good. That's the, they got the worst division in the AFC and the second worst in the NFC.

1:10:46Cousin Sal:Yep.

1:10:47Bill Simmons:but they're playing Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit. They have eight, I repeat, eight non-traditional weekly games. Night, Christmas, or Europe.

1:10:59Cousin Sal:One of them's Dallas, so don't worry about it. Yeah, yeah. Thanksgiving.

1:11:02Bill Simmons:Start their season in San Paulo. They have a Sunday night game. They have a Monday night game. They have a Sunday night game. They have a Monday night game. They have a Thanksgiving game. They have a Sunday game. They have a Christmas game. And maybe even a Sunday night game. Who knows? But that always makes me nervous when the schedule is crazy like that.

1:11:18Cousin Sal:Yeah, does it? I don't like it. I almost feel like they're worse off when they went to Carolina last year and they won that game. When they're on Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern, the one or two times a year, that's kind of when they have weird mojo.

1:11:31Bill Simmons:No rice for the first six games. He took the suspension. So to your point, they only have two hard road games. But I think it's a fascinating Allen season, but I also think it's a fascinating Mahomes season

1:11:44Cousin Sal:because this was like,

1:11:46Bill Simmons:he let control of the steering wheel a little bit last year.

1:11:49Cousin Sal:I want to look into MVPs plus 650, which is very high for Patrick Mahomes. I know it's probably not one of our top three picks, but we do have that KCD, that CD, that money we put aside, KCD win the Super Bowl, Mahomes MVP. That might be running out a little, but you're right. Like they could be one in three to start. Chargers, Eagles, Giants, Ravens. Then at Jacksonville Monday night, it could be like a must win.

1:12:11Bill Simmons:Well, I was trying to think of other teams that other guys that peaked in their 20s in the crazy way. And then as they hit their 30s, it just wasn't ever quite the same.

1:12:21Cousin Sal:Yeah.

1:12:21Bill Simmons:And I thought of Pujols.

1:12:23Cousin Sal:Interesting.

1:12:24Bill Simmons:Remember Pujols where we were like, oh, my God, this guy's Ted Williams crossed with. And then he hit his 30s and it just wasn't the same anymore. I don't know if that's going to happen to my homes, but.

1:12:34Cousin Sal:If the O-line's good, he'll figure it out. I know it's like a really simplistic way to analyze this team, but.

1:12:39Bill Simmons:Well, that's a long way of me saying I'm going over. And I think this is a Mahomes. This is a Mahomes. People are talking to me about this on the streets kind of comeback season for him. He has more weapons. It's Kelsey's farewell season.

1:12:55Cousin Sal:We're 20-4 in divisional games over the last how many years? I don't know.

1:12:59Bill Simmons:The big thing for them is just having that infrastructure of just everything's the same every year, which I think probably hurt them in the Super Bowl because it's like, all right, we're back in the Super Bowl. You don't have that, oh, my God, I want to give my life for this. But I don't know how they wouldn't go 12-5.

1:13:13Cousin Sal:You have 12. I have 11. Is it 11 and a half? It's 11 and a half. All right, so I'm slightly under, but I still believe in this team to win the division. So I have them at 12,

1:13:23Bill Simmons:and I had them at 29 points in my point system, which ties them with Baltimore and one behind Buffalo. I have them at 12 wins. I do not have them winning the division.

1:13:37Cousin Sal:Really?

1:13:37Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:13:38Cousin Sal:Oh, man. So you must have a team doing. This is my big swing.

1:13:43Bill Simmons:Denver Broncos. Wow. Over nine and a half. I've talked about them on five podcasts, so people aren't surprised. In fact, the question is, can you become the surprise contender when so many people think you're the surprise contender? But I actually think they're the surprise contender. If people would have said this last year, it would have gotten more. Ahmad, this might be the everybody believes in this team, but division plus 290. That dropped. That was like plus 350 at one point. Second place, plus 210. Playoffs, minus 130. That used to be even. And you can go 12 plus wins, which I think they're going to get plus 310.

1:14:19Bill Simmons:And I'm just all in, man. I like this team last year, and there was some schedule stuff with them. There was some Sean Payton. I finally have some of my guys. But they beefed up the defense. They got Greenlawn, Singleton, Fanga. Better running backs. They beefed that up. they like the receivers. Their defense last year, I know it was against some shaky teams, but they were first in defensive EPA. They were first in sacks. I have them on defense. Benito, Franklin Myers, Allen, Greenlaw, Sertan, Jones, and Hufanga. There's seven guys who got points for me on their defense. And they have one of the best offensive lines in the league.

1:14:56Bill Simmons:And you love Bo Nix. And we both love Sean Payton. It's like, why isn't this a 12-win team?

1:15:02Cousin Sal:This is how you build a team, right? Great offensive line, solidly built, great defense. They are exactly the opposite of the Chiefs, even though they're successful, and maybe as you're predicting, more successful. Nine wins by eight or more points. Chiefs don't do that. Seven wins by 14 or more points. They made the playoffs despite being one in six in one-score games. That's insane. Wow. The luck is going to turn around even more. So I think you might be right.

1:15:27Bill Simmons:There's a home field advantage with the altitude. You've got to factor that in. For sure.

1:15:30Cousin Sal:Yeah, unlike the Chargers, they have the biggest home field. Right. They and the Chiefs, yeah.

1:15:35Bill Simmons:Schedules, it's okay. They got to go to London at one point. They're playing the Chiefs on Christmas.

1:15:39Cousin Sal:They should win those first two games, Titans and Colts, right? Yeah, just the schedules, it's not easy.

1:15:47Bill Simmons:So that's why normally I would have been like, because I really feel like this is going to be this year's Lions. I think it's like lined up for them to be really good. But the schedule is a little harder than I would want.

1:15:59Cousin Sal:Yeah. You know what you want to stat that you're going to love? Yeah. 16 and 1 and three-team teasers, 10 points. Really? 16 and 1. Oh, that's the best.

1:16:09Bill Simmons:Peyton likes the team. He's telling everybody he likes it. He believes in his guy, Knicks.

1:16:14Cousin Sal:63 sacks. They're solid. I'm only going to give them 10, but that's good enough to go over, right? Yeah.

1:16:20Bill Simmons:Titans week one. At Colts week two, Danny Dimes. That's 2-0. At Chargers week three with 55 % Denver fans. Home Bengals week four. And then at Eagles week five. And I think that's 4-0. I think they're 4-0 going into that game.

1:16:39Cousin Sal:It's a little tougher, yeah. That's pretty good, though. LA Chargers overs 9.5.

1:16:46Bill Simmons:3-1 for the division. Plus 350 to finish last in the division. Minus 120 for the playoffs. they were 11-6 last year against an even easier schedule than the Broncos. Against every good defense, they did not score points. I talked about this when I talked about Herbert a couple weeks ago on the pod, where they're just like, if they're against good defenses, between 10 and 14 points. Slater goes down.

1:17:12Cousin Sal:Terrible start. They extend them, and then it goes down.

1:17:16Bill Simmons:We've seen enough of these seasons. When you lose a guy like that in August, I'm trying to remember when it's ever been good. It's like, oh, despite the loss of the best guy on our team. Right, right, right. It's just, you know, they moved Joe out over there. They'll be able to make do with that, I guess. But the one thing that was going to make them kind of special was this big, nasty offensive line, and now it's not big and nasty.

1:17:38Cousin Sal:Yeah. This is the most annoying team in football in the last decade, out of the watchables, right? I'm not talking like the Panthers, right? This is a team like, why the hell do you have 13 points with two minutes left in the third quarter? This is crazy. He's slinging the ball. Like you said, you know, but I think they're much better in 2023, but not as good as the world wants them. In fact, I think this year determines if Jim Harbaugh, if this was a good move, like in just in general, they were top two in penalties. Good coaching. You don't see that three of their 11 wins were against sub 500 teams.

1:18:11Cousin Sal:Like you mentioned earlier,

1:18:12Bill Simmons:you think a little Jimmy Johnson at Miami kind of, yeah, maybe a little bit like, Oh, this guy's going to be the savior, but maybe he left his magic at the other team.

1:18:19Cousin Sal:Yeah, I mean, do we pencil them in to making the playoffs and then just getting slaughtered in the first round? Maybe that's their thing. They never beat the Chiefs. They have to beat the Chiefs in Brazil. That's a home game. They have to win that. Otherwise, this is going to be stuck. I think I have them with nine wins. They have no true home games. You go down their schedule, it's like, oh, well, they're definitely beating the Colts. Well, no, the Colts might have more fans. You can't give them a win. Well, that's the thing.

1:18:43Bill Simmons:We do this every year on Guess the Lines on Sundays. They play week four at – oh, no, that's at the Giants. It's week three Broncos, week five Commanders. We know it's going to happen in that Commanders game. It's going to be 60 % Washington fans.

1:18:56Cousin Sal:And maybe it'll get there someday, but we're not there yet, and I just can't pick on.

1:19:00Bill Simmons:Viking Steelers, those are home games for those teams. Look at those last five.

1:19:04Cousin Sal:Philly, Casey, Dallas, whatever, Houston, and Denver.

1:19:07Bill Simmons:Philly, every Philly fan we know is going to be at that game.

1:19:09Cousin Sal:Right, and they travel. I know the Brazil thing makes it weird, but 37 ,000 miles, which is the most. I have them with nine. I can't get them to 10.

1:19:17Bill Simmons:I had the Broncos at 30 points in my weird ranking system. I had the Chargers at 21. So this is the best score for a team that I'm not having in the playoffs. But I have them at 8-9. I think that's where it ends. The draft was good.

1:19:33Cousin Sal:Maybe Hampton's amazing. So that would be the X factor.

1:19:37Bill Simmons:Hampton's amazing. They're just pounding the ball. There's some sort of Herbert go up a level. But we just, you know, the football nerds, they're going to stick with Herbert to the bitter end. And we just haven't seen it. Actually, that reminded me. I had a question for you. He is 41-38 career.

1:19:58Cousin Sal:Is that what it is?

1:19:59Bill Simmons:0-2 in the playoffs. Yeah. And now he has his built-in excuse for this year because Slater got hurt. So the Herbert Kool-Aid drinkers can be like, well, you love Slater. Yeah. Nobody wants to talk about the playoff game. We're just not allowed to talk about that anymore. That's over there. That's like when your uncle got hammered at Christmas and shit in the corner, and you're like, let's never talk about...

1:20:22Cousin Sal:It's Jimmy's father. Yeah, that is true. Let's never talk about Uncle Jimmy again. We're just not allowed to talk about it.

1:20:28Bill Simmons:What happened in the playoffs? I don't remember.

1:20:30Cousin Sal:Yeah, I mean, even with a good offensive line, his interception rate was number 20, his sack rate was 28. And I still think he's good, but...

1:20:38Bill Simmons:Well, I have a new nickname for him for you.

1:20:40Cousin Sal:What's that?

1:20:41Bill Simmons:Justin 500.

1:20:42Cousin Sal:Ooh. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.

1:20:45Bill Simmons:I'm going Justin 500 for Justin Herbert. I think at the end of the season. Is that a shitty NASCAR race? Well, he's 41 and 40 career, if you include the 0 and 2 in the playoffs. I think at the end of the season, he's exactly 500. I like that. He's 8 and 9. Who do we do this for? He'll be 50 and 50. Oh, no. He'll be, I'm sorry, 49 and 49.

1:21:02Cousin Sal:Oh, that's great.

1:21:03Bill Simmons:Yeah.

1:21:04Cousin Sal:I feel like we did this with someone once. We did this with Shanahan for a while. Shanahan, this coach, yeah.

1:21:08Bill Simmons:Every time Shanahan passed some shitty coach in the rankings.

1:21:13Cousin Sal:I'll say this.

1:21:14Bill Simmons:I was under on the Chargers before the Slater injury. Because I had already decided on the Broncos. This next team, the Las Vegas Raiders, over 6.5. 12-1 for the division. Plus 330 for the playoffs. Plus 440 to win 10 games. Last year, they were 4-13. And they check a couple of the boxes. They went from Antonio Pierce. Worst coach in the league. second to worst, third worst, in the top three worst. The worst quarterback situation probably of anyone other than the Browns. Now they have Geno. He's confident. Got Pete Carroll's pumped and jacked. Pete Carroll, 17 straight seasons, seven wins or better.

1:21:58Bill Simmons:They have Gentry. Yep. Who was going really high in drafts. Pierce to Carroll.

1:22:04Cousin Sal:And Brock Bowers. Gentry from Madison, Geno from Minshew, and Brock Bowers, who should just get better.

1:22:09Bill Simmons:Brock Barrett, who was like the most amazing tight end since Gronk in the second half of last year. Chip Kelly finally has what he wants. Chip Kelly is the OC. Pete Carroll, three-year deal. So they're like, we're pumped in Jack for coming in. They're playing the AFC South. They play the Browns, the Giants, the Bears, and the Cowboys. They play KC in week 18. Right. That could matter if KC's like, eh, fuck it.

1:22:32Cousin Sal:Right.

1:22:34Bill Simmons:They were minus 16 in turnover differential last year. 31st overall. Right. So they're better QB, coach, and running back. Probably the worst secondary in the league if you're going to ding them on something. Defensive line's not great. The defense, but that's going to be a Pete Carroll moving guys in, pump the jack thing. I have them in the playoffs. I have them nine and eight.

1:22:54Cousin Sal:Good for you. I have them with nine also. I don't have them in the playoffs, but I think they're a nine-win team. I have a lot of wins in that AFC West, but it all adds up, I promise. Yeah, I do worry, though, that they're going to be feisty but lose a lot of games. I think they're going to be like the SD Joneses. They're going to be the LV Joneses. Yeah. Like, all right, on TV, he's going to lose like six out of seven wins. The Tony Atlas? When Tony Atlas and SD Jones were together? Maybe they'll team him up with Tony Atlas. Maybe he'll beat Iron Mike Sharp if nobody's looking. He pinned him.

1:23:24Cousin Sal:Where's the referee? Exactly. He's pinned him for seven seconds. They've been screwed by the referees. So, you know, Maury against Boulain were the highest rated run defenders, but they have Malcolm Koons, so that's going to be tough. But I think they go against the weakest quarterbacks in the league. Number one, easiest schedule of pass offenses.

1:23:43Bill Simmons:So that does help.

1:23:45Cousin Sal:And seven of the final eight are indoors. Geno's quarterback rating is 100 plus indoors.

1:23:50Bill Simmons:I mean, think about this. You go three and one against AFC South. And you beat the Browns and you beat the Cowboys. That's six. Split Giants, Bears, there's seven. Beat the Chargers at least once. there's eight. We can get to nine wins pretty easily.

1:24:08Cousin Sal:Beat New England game one.

1:24:10Bill Simmons:From a talent standpoint, I wouldn't say they're loaded. They're top-heavy in the same way the Niners are and the Bengals are.

1:24:16Cousin Sal:We're looking for a team like this. It definitely could be them. I wish we could bet that they'd cover over eight and a half games. Can we bet that they'll cover nine games? Who cares if teams win or lose?

1:24:27Bill Simmons:So from the absolutely cannot believe they made the playoffs list, Vegas, Tennessee, Jets, Giants, Saints, Cleveland. And this is the first one I'm going with, Vegas plus 320. It is. And we know we're going to have at least two.

1:24:38Cousin Sal:Do you have – so you have them with 10, so they have to be in. No, I have them nine wins, and I think nine wins makes it. Okay.

1:24:44Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think the seventh seed is nine wins.

1:24:46Cousin Sal:What other nine – because there's the last team in the AFC. So what other nine-win teams do you have that don't make it?

1:24:51Bill Simmons:They're the only one. I put Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at eight and nine.

1:24:53Cousin Sal:Oh, that worked out nicely.

1:24:55Bill Simmons:And I put the Chargers at eight and nine. And if one of them gets to nine, I'll give Vegas the tiebreaker. So I have Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, Denver as my division winners. Casey is the five seed. New England is the six seed. And Vegas is the seven seed. And I'd like to welcome Vegas to the Shakey's game right now. Oh, really? Yeah. They're already invited. We've already made reservations for the two seven. Who would it be? The Denver-Vegas Shakey's game. Who's home in the AFC South? No, Denver the two seed and Vegas the seven seed.

1:25:28Cousin Sal:Well, yeah. Oh, you're saying Houston. The Texans or Jags would host.

1:25:33Bill Simmons:But that's Houston KC. They're not going to put that. Oh, right, right. Unless it was Houston Denver. They would put that in shape.

1:25:37Cousin Sal:Yeah, I have Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Jags, division winners, Broncos, Bengals, Patriots.

1:25:43Bill Simmons:So I didn't do the three in, three out exercise because it didn't work last year and I didn't want to force it.

1:25:48Cousin Sal:What's the three in, three out? Three playoff teams out, three in.

1:25:51Bill Simmons:Doesn't always work. I wonder, I was looking at it. Does the 17 game schedule have less variance? 16 games was like 3-3 out you could set your watch

1:26:01Cousin Sal:now if you're good you're good

1:26:02Bill Simmons:you got that extra game to kind of right the ship even Cincinnati last year almost made the playoffs and they sucked alright that's it for part 1 thanks to Gahau, thanks to Saruti we were putting this up on Wednesday night and then we're going to put up part 2 which is coming probably Thursday lunch range of NFC and we're going to take a break I'm going to get you a Coke.

1:26:26Cousin Sal:Okay.

1:26:27Bill Simmons:Coke Zero or Diet Coke? Yeah, Coke Zero. Diet Coke I probably have. Sure, whatever. I'm going to have a coffee. We're going to take a break, and we're going to do the NFC, including your team.

1:26:34Cousin Sal:Woo-hoo!

1:26:35Bill Simmons:Let's go.

1:26:35Cousin Sal:Let's go, J.A. I don't want to see them

1:26:40Bill Simmons:when we saw them say I don't have feelings with them. Must be 21-plus in President's Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-health.com Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-888-778 Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York.