The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

22:00Bill Simmons:There's a case. So, first of all, there's a real case they might have the best D-line in the league with those guys, with Burns and Thibodeau and add Carter to it more. Pass rush-wise. They give up running a lot of running. Yeah, but I'm just saying, like, if they can get a lead and they're in the second half and those guys can just come after whoever, Like that's going to be a scary team. It seems like, so Thomas came back as their left tackle. That was big. Neighbors going for 50 bucks and first round pick and fantasy. Wilson throws that, that moon ball that connects every now and then that could be, that could be, I think we see him for three weeks.

22:38Bill Simmons:I was looking at it at commanders, at Cowboys, home chiefs, prime chargers at saints. I think he, he's chargers game. I think he's starting. Where is that? Week four. four. Yeah. I don't think you start them against the Chiefs on Sunday night. You don't want any part of that. So then they'd have to be one and two though. You're giving them two or at least two? I think they split those first two. Yeah, I don't know. But man, the schedule when you think the combo... It just doesn't get easier. The two hardest divisions then their fourth place schedule is the Pats Vegas and San Francisco. Yeah, those are their extras.

23:13Bill Simmons:How's that fun? So I just couldn't get there. I went through it. I was trying to do every angle to get them to ten and seven because I think 10-7 is going to be the NFC's 7-7. No, you don't have to. Don't do that. Don't hurt yourself. I am with 6-11, and one of those wins is against my Cowboys in Week 18. I think 10-plus wins plus 750 is a great bet, and I might pick that when we do our futures thing. I just think there's a – You don't see seven losses in there at least? History says, like we would have said last year with Denver and Washington. We would have been like, no way. Get the fuck out.

23:51Bill Simmons:Like Washington went 12-5 last year. Yeah. We both went over for them, but we were like over nine would be a miracle, and they went 12. Daniels for rookie of the year. Yeah, I don't know. Believe me, I liked it, and then I looked at the schedule, and I couldn't get there. Can I offer you this bet? One and eight in one score games. This time, Fando, eight plus wins, plus 300. I mean, that could happen. Yeah, that's not bad. Three to one odds on them going eight and nine. I like when I... I mean, the fact that we gave them Abdul-Carter with the Joe Milton thing has to be up there with the homa catch with Pat's Giants relationships.

24:28Bill Simmons:Now you're stuck with Joe Milton. He's terrible. I know. But also, they lost to the Colts. They would have had Cam Ward otherwise and they ended up trading up for Jackson Dard. So they've done some dumb shit. That's like a transformational draft. I think it's better that they ended up the way they ended up. They moved up. I have this written down for them. I think this is the underdog that ruins the most teasers and parlays this year. Yeah. I think there's three or four weeks where they're like plus eight, plus nine, plus seven. Stay away from the eliminator. And you put the money favorite in there with three other teams and the Giants just fuck it up.

25:04Bill Simmons:Well, that's what I said, Fandle. Let me bet over eight and a half covers. That's how I want to do it. That's a really good idea for a bet. What? I'll talk to... We know people at Fandle. I mean, those should all be eight and a half, right? You wouldn't change anything. All right. Defense, they have a couple studs. And then Neighbors is really the only offensive threat. Unless Cam Scadabo can turn into something. But I like the fact, it seemed like they weren't going to be able to block, but now that Thomas is back, maybe they will be. One other thing I like about this team, Dayball and I'm getting fired if this doesn't work out, fuck it.

25:39Bill Simmons:Like, he's just going to do, he's... He's got a different situation than everybody. If he thinks Dark can play and help them, he's putting them in. Okay, we're gonna take a break and then we'll do the NFC North. Football is almost back. And thank God we get to bet. We get to watch. We get to do all kinds of things with our friends at Fando. Fando's getting you ready to kick off the kickoff with an offer you won't want to miss. New customers can bet just$5 and get$300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right. Pick a bet. Bet five bucks. If it wins, you unlock 300 bucks in bonus bets to use all across the app.

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27:29Bill Simmons:See app for details. All right. Before we do the NFC North, the group of, I kind of can't believe they missed the playoffs, which is all the odds, the missing the playoff odds from basically even to plus 160. Washington, Denver, Cincinnati, Rams, Houston, Tampa. You've read this like 15 times. Detroit, San Francisco. I'm just resetting. We had four teams miss last year. The Lions are over 10 and a half. They went 15-2 last year. And there's a chance they will miss the playoffs.

28:03Bill Simmons:Again, that number is plus 138. Any interest? I hate that. I don't think the OC is worth four losses, four more losses. They're going to go from 15 to – actually, it would be five. To be under, they'd have to go from 15 to 10. I think this offense is good enough. I mean, there's a lot of ways to go with this team. I think the positives far outweigh the negatives. They were top three in like 10 offensive metrics. So if you want to give that to Johnson, that's fine. I don't think St. Brown, Gibbs, Goff, LaPorta are going to forget how to play football because Johnson's gone. They were 8-0 on the road.

28:3816-1 as 10-point teasers. Their strength of schedule is the third toughest. Their skill positions players were very healthy. They had like 20 IR guys and most of them were defensive players, including Aiden Hutchinson who was on his way to a banner year. So Ragnow, you know, he's gone. So that's the offensive line. This could be, you know, this is the problem with everyone. Zeitler went to the Titans, but as long as those skill position players are healthy, I think Dan Campbell's too good to put it, like nine wins or ten wins. Is this the best division for you? I think I gave the AFC West more wins than this one.

29:17Bill Simmons:I think it's the two of them together. So here's the case. 37 wins for this. I sniffed this out last year. Yeah. The year from hell team, San Francisco, because there were already signs before we even started. Here's the case for Detroit. Coming off a devastating playoff loss. Right. Lost both coordinators and seven coaches overall, including Ben Johnson, who I think everybody thought was the best offensive coordinator in the league. The new offensive coordinator, John Morton, is getting some WTFs. Is he just the Denver pass coordinator? It's like, what's going on with this guy? Goff went on that quarterback show.

29:57Bill Simmons:Just flagging it. Brutal schedule you mentioned. It's a schedule that includes four more outdoor games than they had last year. That was one of the big things with them last year that we loved was they were just in a dome all the time. And they lost their center and they lost their guard. Like this great offensive line that was like the lifeblood of their team. It's just not as good anymore. Right? So that would be the case. 15 wins. That was so many to come down from. I have them in the playoffs, but I have them at 10 and 7. Okay. I have 12 wins and a one seed. I went under. I think it's just way more likely things go wrong for this team than right.

30:36Bill Simmons:I mean, right from like 15-2, obviously, is never happening again. I just really like this division. Best rest edge as anyone else out of anyone. 13 more rest days than anyone. Yeah, I mean, listen, those eight road games are against teams that finished above 500, so that doesn't get more brutal. But I feel like they win these games. A lot of these teams have been playing a first-place schedule for a while. Yeah. I'm used to it. I talked about this on a pod previously. When the Pats had that year when they lost Romeo Cornell and Charlie Weiss after the third Super Bowl and heading into 05 and people and I remember thinking like everyone was like this could be a big deal and it's like come on.

31:17Bill Simmons:How's this going to be a big deal? It is a big deal when you have the wrong coordinator. You have different language and I just feel like everything was right for them but the thing that really worries me is the offensive line because yeah you can have Jared Goff if you're going to be able to block for him and now like if you can push up the middle on him and get to him. Zytler went to the Titans too. Yeah. So I just feel it's 10 and 7, 11 and 8 range. I don't think they crater. I don't think it's like a Niners thing, but had to mention the year from helping because I think it's there's always a team.

31:48Bill Simmons:Yeah. I had them with 26 in my rankings. 26 points. I even gave Goff a four point. You did? Yeah. That's nice. The next team is the team I like in this division, the Green Bay Packers. And I don't think I'm alone. I'm with you. Over nine and a half wins. there's been some juice that really changed with this. Division plus 220. The Lions for the division were plus 175. The Lions were 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and minus 172 for the playoffs. The Packers are now 16-1 to win the Super Bowl, minus 138 for the playoffs. So their odds over a five-month span started to creep toward Detroit. 12-plus wins for them is plus 310, which I have in bold for our future draft.

32:34Bill Simmons:last year they were 11 and 6 so let's talk about that I don't feel like a ton of shit went right for them last year Love was hurt all year at one point I think he had three different injuries Watson gets hurt near the end of the season it just felt like Jair Alexander was never like you never knew what was getting with him I just felt like for them to go 11 and 6 they got to the point that we were taking them really seriously as a spoiler in January and they hung in that going 11-6 in the division where they had Minnesota and Detroit well they went 1-5 in the division and still ended up with 11 wins unbelievable I mean he's a third year quarterback and if you look at he was the most cursed quarterback in terms of like you said injuries but also those guys suck like Jaden Reed and Devontae and Wicks they dropped their receiver error was like tops in the league and I think they have this Golden could be really good I think Reed, I'm sorry, Love in his third year is solid.

33:36He's 80 % on a quarterback sneak, so he's got that Eagles thing going for him, even though they were the biggest complainers about the tush push. So, yeah, I like him a lot. I mean, they play the Lions and then no division games for two months, so they can make some hay a little bit.

33:50Bill Simmons:Yeah, I looked at the schedule and I kind of liked how it broke down, where they got Lions commanders to start but home, and then going right to at Cleveland, at Dallas. I'm not worried about that. buy week. I might be 4-0 at the buy week. You mentioned Love. One of the questions for me is, can he be a true franchise QB? People thought it was going to happen last year, and it turns out they were like a year away from being the team this year. But the LeFleur thing is nuts. The Bunda was talking about this. They have a top 10 offense every year. LeFleur is 67 and 33 as a head coach. It doesn't seem to matter what kind of injury luck they have.

34:32Bill Simmons:They moved their offensive line around and that Jenkins, who everybody loves, is going to be the center this year. But it seems like they're going to be able to block. Jacob's over 1 ,300 yards. Yeah, they're solid. They're going to put up points. Well, it seems like this Golden, they might have hit with this guy. It seems like Agbuka and Golden are both going to be really good. Super quick, dude. So one question, and they have an excellent coaching staff. One question I had with them, love 25 to 1 MVP. I got it Shield did a whole Oh you have it I got an art thing Shield did a whole MVP tiers And was talking about Basically the MVP Has to come from A 12, 13, 14 win team No doubt about it So if you think Green Bay could be The one seed You have to bet Love 25 to 1 I have them in 11 wins But of course They can get 12 And of course 25 to 1 is worth it Yeah For that And also like The voters might just be sick of I don't want to Decide who's better Allen or Mahomes Or Jackson It might go to an NFC guy this year.

35:29All right.

35:30Bill Simmons:We're both in on them. I have them at 21 points in my rankings, but there might be some guys that are coming on too, especially from that draft. Minnesota over is 9.5 as well. Plus 290 for the division. Even odds for the playoffs. 11-1 to be the one seed. Did I mention the Packers odds for the one seed? 9-1? Okay.

35:59Bill Simmons:if you want to go, I think J.J. McCarthy is going to be a bust. I'd like to offer you under 6.5 wins for plus 360. They were 14-3 last year, Sal. Yep. Who has a wider ceiling floor disparity than J.J. McCarthy? This is literally a complete unknown. No idea what to expect. So you're of two schools of thought, right? Either J.J. McCarthy is coming off an injury. He's unproven in big games. He didn't actually play great. He was 10 for 18, won 40 against Ohio State. They tried to trade for Anthony Richardson, that whole draft. That whole thing. And the Washington game, you know, he wasn't – that's when he was 10 for 18.

36:37He was 12 for 24 against Ohio State. Or you're of the school that, well, Sam Darnold won 14 games, so it doesn't really matter who's throwing. I'm with the former here. I need to see something out of this guy first. I don't think it's good how excited they are that Adam Thielen signed in late August. Like, they're freaking throwing parties at Adam Thielen.

36:58Bill Simmons:No Addison for first three games. Thielen, they get, and it's like, thank God Thielen's here. Yeah, of course Jefferson's great, and that offensive line is solid. But they were 9-1 in one-score games, and I don't think you could demand the same from a rookie coming out after an injury. Some of the regression stuff with them, it's almost as classic of a profile as, who's the team we did in the AFC? Oh, Washington. Yeah. That was the other one. They had crazy turnover luck. They had crazy one-score game luck. Schedule was easier. This year, the way worse at cornerback. And I think you're going to be able to throw on them.

37:37Bill Simmons:And I mention that because they're going at Bears, home Falcons, home Bengals for their first three games. Teams are going to be dialing up and throwing on them. Now, the Patriots did a whole week of practices that an exhibition game, and their defense kicked our ass. and I Flores did a good job with that defense but 33 takeaways which is what they had I don't want to say it's lucky but it's hard to replicate right like everything kind of went right for them for those last two games yeah they hit last year they hit with that being Ginkle signing right but it's weird when I did my rankings and I really like when I do those I look I read all the lists and their defense is great but it's really because of Flores it's not like they're like loaded with studs.

38:23Bill Simmons:They move parts around. But yeah, that offensive line, Kelly and Freeze and Donovan Jackson they drafted from Ohio State. You know, they got Hargrave on the defense. I don't know. I just think that's a lot. That 9-1 in one score games thing scares me. I have them with 7 wins. What do you have? You have 8? 7 wins? 7 and 10. So you have them dropping 7 wins. dropping seven wins yeah well that's what you're doing in detroit basically no i have them dropping five sevens like yeah holy shit different thing so you're out on jj mc that's it i'm out on jj mcgarthing yeah i have to be if i'm gonna give some of these other teams wins like green bay i'm under i have them at nine and eight by the time we get to next week it could be eight nine because just because i think their defense is after the bye philly at chargers at detroit Baltimore.

39:18What could be that?

39:20Bill Simmons:One of the reasons I did that was because I was looking at

39:28Bill Simmons:the most wins by division each year. Last year, the NFC North had the most wins. They had 45 wins. A year before AFC North, 43. A year before that, NFC is 43. That's just the last three. so you figure it's going to be somewhere in that range 43 to 45 and I think the NFC North is the best division so I wanted to get in that like 43 range so that's why I gave them 9 and 8 who they play NFC East and AFC North yeah it's tough not the easiest maybe not tough yeah so with Minnesota they're in London a couple weeks I mean their schedule is really tough. Is that hard to win both? Isn't that hard to beat Pittsburgh and Cleveland?

40:18One of those games is going to be shitty weather.

40:20Bill Simmons:Also, has anyone done Dublin and London back-to-back? Have we ever done two different countries back-to-back in Europe? I don't think so. I don't think the Jags did that. You know, we're sending the fantasy football guys to Dublin. I heard. You're never going to see them again. I think Heifetz might not come back. It's 50-50. The other two I'm not worried about. what do we call the coach that has the middle seat middle seat high fits this end of the run for the for uh god so they have a bye week and then they go eagles at chargers at lions ravens bears at packers at seahawks commanders at cowboys at giants lions packers talk about no room for anything it's a lot to ask for old jj Yeah, 9-8.

41:07Bill Simmons:I might even go lower than that. Under for them. Man, it feels like we are agreeing too much this podcast. No, because what else do we have? It feels like we're agreeing too much. Browns and dumb shit. The Bears. Now I feel like you're going to be with me on the Bears. Well, last year our decision was under 8-1⁄2 or no playoffs, right? I mean, they were asking a lot of the rookie to go 9-8 its first year. I was under on the Bears. The Bears ended up 5-12 last year. They had one of the worst coaching situations in the league. The Hail Mary by Daniels literally ruined their season. They were never the same.

41:48They were over a 7.5, 5-1 for the division, which I think is enticing,

41:54Bill Simmons:plus 184 for the playoffs, plus 210, 10 wins. so can Ben Johnson can this be Shanahan and McVay is that what we're signing up for with this my bet is yes and that's part of like the Lions thing I don't think you can say the Lions are fine but then not also dive in on the Bears I mean well you can go one I screwed that up you can't say take two You can't say the Lions are going to be fine, but then... I think I did say it. Did I say it fine? But the Bears are going to be bad? Yeah. I think it's one or the other. That's what I'm saying. So here's where we disagree. We've been doing this for two and a half hours.

42:43Bill Simmons:Yeah, yeah. We're going to see a little crocky. I'm in on Ben Johnson. Yeah. Okay. And I didn't want to be, and it felt a little Justin Herbert-y, and it felt like all the NFL nerds were trying to bully us and talk about brilliant Ben Johnson. is, but I've loved his training camp. I love the tough love stuff with Caleb. I like that Tyson Bajin, he just keeps like kind of, they gave him an extension. They keep giving him how great he is. And I don't know. I just think he's going to be, he's got a lot of weapons, got receivers all over the place. They got that. Everybody likes that Loveland. They should be able to block okay.

43:19They helped him out. They got Tooney and Jonah Jackson, right? Drew Dahlman. and they load it up. This is a classic rookie quarterback team. Two more wide receivers with the first three picks. Caleb Williams might need a little more than Ben Johnson to excel in this division. That was my next question.

43:37Bill Simmons:Does Caleb Williams have it? Yeah. If he doesn't have it, we're going to know because I was trying to think, has anyone, any year two quarterback loaded up like this, been in a better situation since Mahomes? Some will say McCarthy. if you want to count them as a year or two. This guy's got... No, this is a better situation. The next genius offensive head coach. Weapons everywhere. Number one pick receivers and tight ends. DJ Moore. The running backs aren't that good. They spent money on the line. They've done everything right. And he just has to be good. I never liked the guys who were sacked 68 times, third most ever.

44:18I never liked those guys. I feel like... And maybe you're right about Ben Johnson. Maybe it's in two years, but I just don't think Caleb Boyd takes him. We might see Tyson Bajan, and not because of an injury. I'm going to go that far. That would be amazing. And I have seven wins. I think they go under. I think the luck factor. Oh, we don't agree. We don't agree. No. They forced 24 turnovers last year, 13 fumble recoveries. That's lucky, 13 fumble recoveries. Dennis Allen. Yeah. DC this year. Dennis Allen. Oh, great. But they didn't really do much for him. They didn't really sign. The pass rush wasn't good.

44:50They go from the third easiest to the seventh hardest schedule now. I'm hitting that on there.

44:55Bill Simmons:Left tackle might be shaky. Running backs might be shaky. I'm in. All right. I'm in. I think they go 10 and 7. I'm way over. I have them in the playoffs. Okay. Let's bet$25 ,000. I have three NFC North playoff teams, which our colleague Kay Adams. Yeah. That was one of her special bets. She stole that from you? No, she had it. Right. Kay Adams. Why hasn't she invited you on? Maybe she has, and I've turned her down a few times. You can go on the K Adams show. You and K Adams agree? Oh, this is something now. K Adams and I agree. I have 12 for Lions, 11 for the Packers, and seven for the Vikings, and seven for the Bears.

45:35Some of these schedules are tough.

45:37Bill Simmons:I think you whiffed on that. I have 10, 9, 19, 12 for Green Bay. That's 31. I have 41 for this division. Holy shit. Yeah. 23 there. I have 37. Okay. I'm just glad we were able to do math. It might be wrong. We're going to take a break and then talk about a division that's not as good, the NFC South. That's next. And now it's time for Great Call, a segment sponsored by Verizon. For the first whistle blows, the smartest plays already on the board, these great calls are the backbone of a successful season. And when it comes to winning strategy, you can't beat the value you get at Verizon. They make sure you're always getting the most out of your money.

46:23Speaking of great calls, this offseason had a couple of standouts,

46:26Bill Simmons:things I'm looking at as we head into the NFL season. The Bears hiring Ben Johnson, trying to team him up with a bunch of weapons. I think they're going to be a playoff team. The Raiders taking Ashton Gentry to put him with Brock Bowers. The Patriots finally getting a left tackle to protect Drake May. I think best of all, the Giants getting Abdul Carter, who I think is going to be the defensive player of the year, and fortifying their front four. Now they have the best defensive line pass rushing wise in the league. So there were some really good calls over the spring. Sometimes that's not always the case.

47:02Bill Simmons:If you're looking to make a great call this season, make it with Verizon. Get a brand new phone with select phone trade in and my plan and lock down a low price for three years on any plan with my plan. This is for everyone, whether you're a new or existing customer. Swing by Verizon today and get the most for your money. Three-year price guarantee applies to then current base monthly rate only. Additional terms and conditions apply for all offers. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. All right, parents, PayPal's on your team this back to school. I've been there myself. You're paying for sports gear, backpacks, sneakers, laptops.

47:40Bill Simmons:You've likely got multiple carts, your favorite online stores. Well, that's when PayPal comes in with the assist. Pay in four, no interest, no fees, truly game-changing, subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash payinfor, PayPal Inc, NMLS 910457. This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other, trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming.

48:24Bill Simmons:PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association member, FDIC. Least wins by division last few years. AFC South 25 last year year before NFC South 27 year before that AFC South 23 then we had a 28, a 23, and a 24 this would be my candidate to have the least wins unless you wanted to go AFC South yeah it's one of the Souths is going to have the least wins and a lot of it depends on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team how many wins you think they're going to get or if you think they're even going to be good it's interesting so their over is 9.5 action on the under minus 105 for the revision minus 160 for the playoffs there's really not a lot of value anywhere around here Wirfs looks like their left tackle who's excellent looks like he's coming back maybe even week 2 range so that changed a little bit and then Godwin will be back after a month but they're fine because they got Igbuka in the draft who's a stud Love that guy.

49:39Bill Simmons:So here's my take on this. Tell me if you agree. This feels like our slow start, fast finish team this year. Yeah. They have no worse for the first couple weeks. Five of their first eight on the road, plus Philly at home. But then it gets really easy down the stretch. And it feels like I'm just marking this down. Remind me in four weeks that we talked about it. We wait a month and bet on Tampa to win the division. Let's let Atlanta take a little lead and then jump on it. Yeah. Don't freak out if they lose at Atlanta week one. Yeah. That's fine. It's fine. They're one and three after four games.

50:12Bill Simmons:Oh, my God. What's that? Like, yeah. That's what I love this team. Am I happy that they cut Shiloh Sanders? No, of course not. They're behind the eight ball there. No. But listen, this is second year in a row. Bulls has a new OC. He lost Canales and then Liam. So last year, number two score rate, number three points per drive. 16 and one and 10 point teasers. You love that. The secondary was bad. You loved it. I love it. I do. But they have Vita Vea and Redick. They got Redick from the Jets. That could be forced, like, inside against the run. I just love that offense, right? Bucky Irving, 1 ,100-plus yards.

50:4541 touchdown passes for Baker. He's a fucking machine. And then, like you said, add Egbuka, who could be a generational talent. And what did he go, like, 19th? So, it's going to be teams, like, kicking themselves.

50:55Bill Simmons:It feels like he's going to be Brian Thomas Jr. for this year. Yeah, right. Plus, they still have Evans. Plus, Bucky Irving was fucking awesome last year. Yeah, lots of points. They had 152 fourth quarter points. That was the best in the league last year. They don't get nervous. This is the best stat I saw. So the past 25 years, they have the six best third down conversion rate last year. The other teams that were ahead of them were the 22 Bills, the 2011 Saints, the 06 Colts, the 04 Vikings, and the 01 Rams. They weren't just great on third down. And they were like out of their minds. So people would say, well, Liam Cohen's not there anymore.

51:37Bill Simmons:And yeah, I'm a little worried about that. But they have a lot of weapons and they can block. So new OC is named Josh Grizzard. Yep. He was their quarterback coach, right? You know what's interesting? They're still in the running to be the best NFC team in the 2020s. Yeah, it's true. 51 and 33, six and four in the playoffs, four straight division titles, and they won a Super Bowl. So it's them or the Eagles right now. Interesting. Kind of battling back and forth for that. Well, I got news for you. Should I say this now? Yeah. I know you don't like Santa Clara. Maybe you're not a big fan. I don't know if you want that over the airwaves.

52:16But the Buccaneers are going there in February. This is, oh, so I did a Buffalo. You're going Tampa. Let's go. They're meeting each other. 12 and 5. You have Buffalo versus Tampa.

52:27Bill Simmons:That's what I have. I have Buffalo versus Green Bay. That could be good, too. We'll bet them both. 12-5. Class of this garbage division. I like it. I went over, obviously, and I know you did too. I don't know if it's 10-7 or 11-6. It's somewhere in there. You went over that ending. That could be some run. Right. But at Falcons, at Texans, first two weeks, they might start out 0-2. And then Eagles, at Seahawks. They could literally be 2-5 after seven weeks and still win the division. Right. I had them with 26 points in my roster rankings. So right in the cusp of Chiefs and some of those other teams.

53:13Bill Simmons:Top four offensive line in the league. Four chippers on defense, including David and Winfield, who were like high chippers. Mayfield's just good. I mean, that's it. Let's all give up. He's somewhere between like the eighth and 13th best quarterback in the league. I think he tied for the lead in interceptions. He had 16, but when you're tied, 41 touchdown passes. You're all right. Atlanta. Yep. 7.5 is the over-under for them, plus 220 for the division. So there's some value there because if you don't think Tampa is going to have something bad happen, plus 142 for the playoffs. They were 8-9 last year.

53:58Bill Simmons:My two questions. What if Penix isn't good? And what if Penix isn't good? Same question. Wait a minute. Let me answer the second one first. You can answer either. What if he's not good? Then they'll be in a little bit of trouble. I mean, he's not as accurate as Cousins, but there are some things to like about him for sure. Because if they're going to be a playoff team, he's going to have to be good. Because I don't think their defense is going to be very good. And they spent two first-round picks, including one they traded next year to beef up their pass rush they signed. They spent a lot of money trying to have a pass rush.

54:36I wish their coaching was a little better, right? Raheem Morris and the year before Arthur Smith, they lost a lot of games down the stretch. They lost six of the last eight games in 24 and four of the last five in 23. So that's what bugs me about this team. The other thing that bugs me is I was going to do a thing on Ringer Gambling Channel. I was going to send a camera video of how to explain to your wife her fantasy team sucks. She went out with her friends and drafted Kyle Pitts. Your wife did? Early. Divorce level. I know. I didn't even want to talk to her. I was like, hey, I crossed off a lot of names.

55:10He was definitely one. I was like, oh, maybe I wasn't paying attention. Not paying attention. This Kyle Pitts, this is his year thing. He didn't get drafted in our ringer league. They didn't? 200 whatever picks? Yeah. I mean, this is Lucy pulling the ball from Charlie Brown.

55:25Bill Simmons:They signed Leonard Floyd and they took Jalen Walker 15th and James Pierce Jr. 26th. And Pierce Jr. was supposed to be heading into last college season like a top five pick. But then you read the... I went on the Falcons Reddit. I went on the... I googled their pass rush. People... I guess they didn't have that great of a preseason. They weren't like, oh my God, we're loaded. These guys are crazy. It wasn't like that at all. They're doing the Howie Roseman SEC big body guys thing, superstars. So, bat at cornerback, run defense is going to be terrible. Grady Jarrett's finally gone. But then the big thing that cemented the under for me, because I'm going under 7.5, they lose their right tackle, Caleb McGarry, on Friday.

56:10I saw that, yeah.

56:11Bill Simmons:And they had this offensive line that was good. It was definitely like, it wasn't a top four offensive line, but it was probably top 10. Right. But he's the right tackle. It's the Penix blindside spot. And I was like, I'm out. I'm out. I'm under. That's it. I was on the fence, and now I'm out. I saw it. First of all, we learned how to... It's Bichon, not Bichon. We learned this summer. So I don't know if that changes your... Did he announce that? Yeah, he did. He did interviews and said that. Bichon? I'm surprised here, but I think that division is so bad that they could go 5-1. So I think they're going to get 10 overall.

56:4510-7. I'm going over. Look at you. What? Yeah. It's fine. That's so... I'm going to beat you again. Home against Washington. They win that. Home against Tampa, we like that. Home against Miami. Home against Indianapolis. Home against Carolina. At the Jets. Home against Seattle. They could win these games. 10-7.

57:08Bill Simmons:Under. One thing I wanted to mention. This is an all-in team where they're not even good. Yeah. Like, they spent all that money on Cousins. They traded next year's first-round pick, and it's like, cool. So we have no cap space, And we're going to have a first-round pick next year. So that might help your over. This is a division to do it in. Yeah, they're not going to tank. Right. They play – the NFC South plays the AFC East and the NFC West, which I forgot to mention. They had the second-place schedule, so they play Indy, Washington, and Minnesota. I don't like any of those teams. Look, if Penix is awesome, sure.

57:44Yeah. But I don't know.

57:47Bill Simmons:I was looking at the most interceptions for him for our futures draft. Yeah. because he had 11 in his last year in college, which led college. Right, right, right. Well, that's good. Carolina, six and a half is the number. There's been some action on the over, minus 130. They are plus 240 to finish second, plus 410 for the division, plus 250 for the playoffs. And there's been some, but this is another one of those. I'm trying to talk myself into them being a sleeper team. They're another one. they're going to have the worst defense in the league. That's it. That's what I have written down. You can blame Cam Young, or you can blame Young and Bryce Young and Dalton, but most points in NFL history they allowed, 31.4 rushing yards.

58:33Yeah, there were some crazy stats with them. Didn't they give up like 3 ,000 rushing yards or something crazy? 404 yards per game. Yeah. Yeah, that's what it was. So they get Marig from the Raiders and J.C. Horn and free agency, but their second round pick from the A &M, the edge already has a collapsed lung. So I don't know. And he's... They got Derrick Brown back.

58:54Bill Simmons:Some people are like, bro, they got him back. We want him to be good, Bryce. But, you know, he's like dead in most categories. Like before that week three benching, he was like pretty much last. And then he had some, you know, he won four of his last 10 and three of them were in overtime. So what do you make of this team? They don't have to. I think Canales has a ways to go here. I think the over is too high. I have no idea if Canales is a good coach. terrible secondary easier schedule look they traded Thielen which I find hard to believe he couldn't have helped them and that tells me that they're punting on this season you trade that guy right before the season starts and you get like a fifth round pick so I don't know that was suspicious to me Ted McMillan could be fun there's some positive schedule stuff with them but I couldn't get there We'll see.

59:46Bill Simmons:The offensive line is that they, you know, there's going to be a couple games where they run the ball and Bryce does a couple things. Oh, the Panthers, they're up at halftime. Yeah. Upset making here in Philly. There'll be a couple of those. Yeah, like I said, they were fun against the Chiefs last year. They had some games. Well, they're not going to be worse than this team. I'm going under for the Panthers. Six wins for me. Yeah, so that's under. Yeah. New Orleans, four and a half. Fourth place, minus 130. plus 880 to make the playoffs, which is the worst number than the Browns. You can go under 3.5 wins for plus 230.

1:00:23Bill Simmons:You can go under 2.5 wins for plus 480. They were 5-12 last year. They changed their coach. They tried to change their quarterback, which is one of the reasons I'm going under. They spent a second-round pick on Tyler Shuck. Right. And he doesn't even win the job, even though he's like 25. Right. So congrats on that, guys. I guess their offensive line's a little better with Banks. And they're better because they don't have Dennis Allen. Other than that, I don't see it. This is in the running for worst team for me. Has there ever been a less scary trio than Rattler, Shuck, and Hainer? This is like a...

1:00:59It's like a law firm. A toddler coming at you with a bag of cotton balls. Why are we supposed to be afraid of this? And the center is out now. I mean, this is a mess for Kellen Moore and Brandon Staley on the defensive end. I don't know why we even talk about Carr leaving, but he was actually not awful. They scored 90 points in the first two weeks, but you're right. I think they led the BS podcast that Sunday night

1:01:23Bill Simmons:after second week where we were like, is this the 2000 Rams? Yeah, and Shuck is bad against pressure and blitz like he was in college. I know he has Kubiak. Everyone's excited for that, but their schedule is pretty easy. We only played three playoff teams from last year, Bucks, Rams, and Bills. I think they're 4-13. I think they're one of, if not the worst team. in my point system, they ended up with a one. Minus two at quarterback. Kamara got a point. Young got a point. Davis got a point, and they had nothing else. One point total. Good job, Saints. Yeah, so that's really bad. They have Chase Young.

1:02:02I guess that'll help a little bit. Is this a worst record in the league bet for you? Yeah, I think so. Would you go them or the Browns? I might do both. Do we have those odds yet? The problem with the South is, oh, I don't think I saw it.

1:02:14Bill Simmons:I didn't see those odds. Can I tell you hilarious? Fandle's been way more positive. They don't have a first coach fired. I don't see a worse record for them. Right. What are they doing? Stop being such a nice guy. This is a great stat. So every team on Fandle has, will they score a touchdown every game of the year? Yeah. And so the good teams are all even. The Ravens are minus 140. Actually, the Lions are minus 240. The Saints are plus 550. Plus 550 to score every game. Every other team is even or minus or something. They're in trouble. Are they going to be favored in a single game? I thought they might be.

1:02:52Bill Simmons:Possibly. Not the first two. Not home against the Giants. Probably not. I don't think. Bucks, no. Falcons, no. Home against Carolina. Panthers, maybe. Jets, maybe. Week 15, 16, maybe. Maybe. I mean, they'll have the one game where Kamara has like 230 yards and goes nuts. Well, that's the problem with this division. You could saddle a team with two wins for the season, but they could go two and four in the division because it's so bad, right? It would be funny if Trump, instead of declaring Warren, the weird shit he declares Warren was just like, got to burn a saddle about the NFC South. It's like, I've had it.

1:03:31Bill Simmons:That's it. We've got to improve this. I've just got troops down to fuck with the NFC South they're relegated yeah well we got to get rid of this entire division right it's terrible it's bad football it's bad we're bringing the SEC in to take their place alright we're gonna take a break and then we're gonna do NFC West this episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra whether you're racing to build the biggest sandcastle seeing who can throw the fastest pitch or competing in a championship match it's always better when there's a prize on the line like Michelob Ultra smooth refreshing and so satisfying after all that hard work.

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1:05:24Bill Simmons:NFC West is up. Most wins by division. as I mentioned earlier, NFC North was 45 wins last year. Could this be a candidate for you to have the most wins this year? No. NFC West. No? Okay. No. All right. Glad we covered that. San Francisco is our first team over 10 and a half. Football fans get amnesia every August. They forget what happened the season before. They punted on the fact that San Francisco was 6-11 last year, made a bunch of excuses for them. Meanwhile, they lost like 10 starters or close to be starters. And it's a pretty top-heavy team. I thought this stat was incredible. San Francisco, for the past 22 years, they've either made the NFC title game or missed the playoffs with no in-between.

1:06:19Bill Simmons:22 years, going back to 2003. What the hell is that? That's good. I would take that. How is that possible? I'd take that in a heartbeat. That's great. I have them.

1:06:31Bill Simmons:Division plus 155, conference 9-1, playoffs minus 200. It's been rising nonstop. I'm under. Yeah. When we did the over-under guessing the win total, I don't know. What did we do? Is that what we did? We did this in March, right? We did. We kind of did. Yeah, we did. When the first things came out, what jumped out to us? Like gut reactions. I got off the Zoom. This is the last one we did. I got off the Zoom. I had to go for a walk. I was like, do I know anything about fucking football? This is crazy. How are they favored to win the division, let alone, what is it? Nine and a half, 10? Yeah. 10 and a half.

1:07:0410 and a half. And yet, well, I took this time and I was like, damn it. They tanked for a goddamn easy schedule. They freaking did it. They did it. So all you really have to trust is, and this is a lot, like if Trent Williams and Purdy aren't playing in the same game, you're kind of in trouble. Like they're so top heavy, right? Their money's in Purdy, Warner, Kittle, Bosa, Ayuk. So those guys, there's$113 million right there. I'm going to go 10-7. I can't believe how easy this schedule is. They were the most injured team last year. And it goes as far, I should say CMC is also obviously in that equation with Purdy and Williams.

1:07:42So I don't know. I'm going 10-7.

1:07:44Bill Simmons:I went 10-7 as well, so that means we're both under. They had six 2024 wins. They beat the Jets, the Pats, Seattle, Dallas, Tampa, and Chicago. And the Seattle win was on a Thursday night. Tampa win was without Evans, Godwin, or McMillan. They had some awful, awful, awful coaching and special team stuff that's now been forgotten by history. They had the best DVOA of an 11-loss team since 1978. So that would indicate maybe this would be a little better. But they had to pay Purdy. They ruined all their depth of good players. They have this kind of studs and scraps team. Ayuk's not coming back probably until October.

1:08:28Bill Simmons:Yeah, they got a while. So they look like they're scrounging for receivers. McCaffrey's allegedly healthy now. We'll see where he looks like in six weeks. D-line situation's bad. They drafted Michael Williams. Is it Michael? Or is it Mikkel? Is it Mikkel? I think it's Mikkel. Mikkel Williams? Yeah, Mikkel. The edge from Georgia, yeah. So he's opposite. Bad preseason. Yeah. They thought they'd get more from him. And yet the schedule is so awful, I don't know how they don't win 10 games. I know. So basically what we're predicting is this will be the first time they make the playoffs. But don't go to the title game?

1:09:07Yeah. Yeah. They lost Hargrave. They lose Floyd and Malik Collins. But they get Robert Sala. Oh, I screwed up. I have them going 8-9. All right. What? I forgot that I changed this.

1:09:21Bill Simmons:Yeah, I went with some other teams in this division. Okay. Yeah, I can do it. Even with the schedule, I can do it. You sure you want to look at it again? No. We're getting groggy at the three. I went eight and nine for them. And even though the schedule, I just couldn't get there with the rest of the team. Four games versus teams with a winning record. Plus nine net rest. Robert Salabak. I think that's good. I know we made fun of him. Sometimes these guys are defensive coordinators, and that's what they do. They have two decent guys in their defense, and they're both really good. Bosa and Warner.

1:09:50Yeah.

1:09:51Bill Simmons:They have no injury flexibility whatsoever. Right. That's what you have to believe. Kittle, McCaffrey, Purdy, Bosa, Warner. It's five stars in an above-average offensive line. Yeah. And Shanahan. And I just think there are better teams in the division. Going into the schedule, I was like, I'm going to hammer this team. I like them under. I'm sticking to our guns in the March podcast. And then I saw the schedule. I'm like, shit, they're going to beat Jacksonville. They're going to beat Atlanta. They're going to beat Carolina. They're going to beat Tennessee and Indianapolis. Ten wins. We're both under anyway.

1:10:27Bill Simmons:Rams, overs, nine and a half. Divisions, plus 200. Second place is plus 220. Playoffs, minus 144.

1:10:39Bill Simmons:Two questions. Can Matthew Stafford hold up? But seriously, can Matthew Stafford hold up? Are my two questions for this one. The second one. What do you got? I've been embarrassed by the Rams over the years, right? Like, I said they were going to have the season from hell two years ago. Stafford had spine problems. Friggin' spine, 32 at the time. It's fine. And then they made the playoffs. And I'm fading them again. I think they were lucky to be in a division where the 49ers were bad. I don't think that's going to happen. I like Arizona to be resilient. They had a lot of offensive line injuries.

1:11:12The thing that is tough about, aside from McVay being the coach, they always have a third rounder that comes out out of nowhere and becomes on his way to being the best in the game. So that might be Josiah Stewart, the edge from Michigan. I don't know. You never want to stick a guy with McVay with six wins, but he's made the playoffs five in the last seven years. That's what I'm doing. I think eventually it's going to be Jimmy G or Stetson Bennett, and those guys aren't going to get it done.

1:11:40Bill Simmons:they upgraded to Devontae Adams from Cup seems like an upgrade they had this Larrick Johnson left tackle situation with the blood clots but they think he's going to be ready to play linebackers aren't great defensive back might be shaky their 20th in defensive DBOA last year there's a lot of reasons not to like them I just think they have a lot of good players like when I was doing my rankings I had them at 22 the schedule's pretty easy I trust McVay and honestly with Garoppolo we've seen McVeigh rejuvenate different guys so we've had a rejuvenated quarterback every year for the last couple. We had Baker we had Geno Smith last year we had Darnold and I wonder if Garoppolo is the rejuvenated guy this year.

1:12:26Bill Simmons:I don't know So best case scenario Stafford is okay with the back but I don't know maybe he rejuvenates Jimmy G I just I hate betting against it this is probably I'm going to regret this the most but that's where I had them. So this goes back to the conundrums we have during the futures. You have the Rams, you have the Niners, and I think you have to pick one of those. I don't think they both make it again because you asked them the three-in-three out rule. Both those teams, or one of those teams, made the playoffs last year. They had 10 wins last year, so they go back two. Over. You're going over.

1:13:03Bill Simmons:Going, yeah, nine and a half. I'm going over. I'm on there. 10 wins. I'm way under. I'm going to have seven. Arizona is eight and a half.

1:13:14Bill Simmons:This is everyone's hipster team. Shield did a thing on his podcast about this. Yeah. That this is the, everybody loves how they're coached and there's good defensive and offensive metrics with them and people just like this team. I don't really get it because I did all my talent ranking stuff and I just didn't, I had Connor, Harrison, McBride, Sweat, and Baker as the only guys who you would even give a chip designation. I only had them six points total. I have some real concerns about Kyler Murray. Is that cool? Considering he's 36 and 54 or 45. Yeah. And I just like the other teams in the division more.

1:13:53Bill Simmons:I don't really understand the case. You're going to hate me. You're going to pick them to win the division. This is a division winner. God damn it. 11 and 6. I think Gannon has a shot at coach of the year. Even the cards, the uncut cards are laughing at me right now. They got the offensive line coming back. This is your big swing team, huh? I know he has to be better in the fourth quarter and closing out games and down the stretch and all that. But, you know, they open at New Orleans, Carolina, at San Francisco, Tennessee, and at Indy is in there. You know, they could be like 5-1 or 4-1, and they're like, oh, watch out for this team.

1:14:23And then once they get a little confidence, they could be, all right, they signed Sweat, Tomlinson, Campbell, they drafted Nolan and Birch for defense, you know. Yeah, except Nolan's already hurt. Yeah, I know he's hurt, yeah. They have Shuck, Bryce, Cam Richardson. Those are four of the first six weeks. Their special teams is awful. They have to fix dumb shit. They gave up 31 yards per kickoff return.

1:14:47Bill Simmons:Dumb Kyler Murray plays. Yeah. So, I don't know. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. could have a better year. Bottom five the last three years in injury luck. I think it actually comes together for the Arizona Cardinals, 11-6. I can't believe you. Yep. That's it. I have them at 9 and 8. And I really, deferring to the schedule stuff, the schedule we talked about this, this NFC West going against the two Souths is just an absolute godsend for both, all four of those teams. I like the other team more. And I have Seattle winning the division. You do. Yeah. 5-1 to win the division. I couldn't figure it out with them.

1:15:29Bill Simmons:5-1. Plus 164 for the playoffs. They finished 10-7 last year, Sal. Here's the crucial thing, because we haven't talked about this yet. This is the nobody believes in this team. Everybody believes in the Cardinals. All the hipsters love them. Everyone's making cases for them. Who's making cases for the Seahawks? It's just like Pittsburgh last year. I think there's first of all, new offensive coordinator, revamped offensive line. Everybody loves that Gray Zabel. They're doing some zone blocking with Kubiak. They have good running backs. Looks like that Torrey Horton they might have hit on as a rookie receiver.

1:16:07Bill Simmons:JSN, I think, is one of the, he's not one of the five best receivers in the league, but he's in the top ten. And then people just see Darnold and they're like, we're out. Oh, sorry, you don't like the guy who went 14-3 last year. I don't know, is going from Geno Smith to Darnold, is that a downgrade? I mean, I don't want to crap on him because I have him at 9-8, so they were 10-7, so I think they're going to be one game less. I think Mike McDonald got a little bit of a raw deal where he had Gino Smith and he had DK and Tyler Lockett. Now it's like, yeah, you got Simon Darnold and Cooper Cup, but he's pretty good.

1:16:39Yeah. So there was seven and one on the road last year. Probably not happen again. Six and two and one score games. Probably not happen again. We want to go over the quarterbacks they faced. Rookie Bo Nix, rookie Caleb Williams, backup Jacoby Brissett, Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, Jimmy G, Kirk Cousins, Kylo Murray twice. I know I like him this year. Aaron Rodgers.

1:16:58Bill Simmons:I feel like we lost money in their division bet multiple times. Yeah, we definitely have. Can I throw the schedule back at you? Because everyone says the Niners have the easiest schedule. They play the same AFC South, NFC South combo. They play Pittsburgh, Washington, and Minnesota as their second place teams. And I don't like any of those teams. And we don't have any of those teams in the playoffs. That's why I have them with nine. There's a home field advantage that they used to have, at least. I really like the coaching staff. I thought McDonald, people forget. He was the Ben Johnson of last year as this defensive guru.

1:17:31Bill Simmons:So I don't know. I think they have enough talent. I had them with four chippers on defense, good special teams. I thought they had another great draft. They've had two good drafts in a row, which is a good sign. They didn't really spend on offensive line, and half of Darnold's dropbacks are three-plus seconds. So he's like bottom five when pressured. So that's got to be fixed. If you go through all four teams in this division, it's the hardest division, you could make a case against all of them pretty convincingly and I think this one has the least variance I know they can run the ball I think they can be a top 5 defense and I think they can make some plays with JSN Darnold isn't going to go from being good last year to just awful and I believe in the team alright so for playoff teams I have Philly, Green Bay, Tampa and Seattle as the four division winners.

1:18:27Bill Simmons:And then I have Detroit, Chicago, and the Rams as playoff teams. So the only new teams I have in the NFC are Chicago and Seattle. Yeah, we're all over the place with you and I. I have the Eagles, Lions, Bucks, Cardinals, Packers, 49ers, Falcons are my wild cards. Falcons. You're going to regret that one. Two South teams. What am I doing? Can I put an extra bet on you regretting the Falcons pick? What am I doing? One of those teams, right? How do I take two South teams? Unbelievable. All right. That's it for the NFC. Thanks to Gahal. Thanks to Saruti. We're going to bid a due for this two-part pod, but we're taping a third part that's going to be the futures draft that we did last year.

1:19:09And on Sunday, we're going to do Guest Alliance for week one,

1:19:13Bill Simmons:our 19th year, and then at the end, we're going to put the futures draft. You don't have to take them through the magic of editing and stuff. Yeah. So you're going to see us on Zoom, and then we're going to be back here like we went backwards. We'll be wearing different shit. Yeah. How was this? Good pace for you? I loved it. Yeah. Similarly, less than three hours. Good pace for us. You know, I got to stretch my back. I went to the doctor real quick and I gained 10 pounds and I knew that. I knew that. But then she's like, oh, you gained 10 pounds. I said, listen to me. Last time I saw you, I went crazy losing weight just so that I wouldn't come in the heaviest I ever.

1:19:44That's not going to be me anymore. Whatever I am, I'm coming in at. If that affects our friendship, so be it. But that's not what I'm doing anymore. I go to family reunions everyone looks like me this is what I'm supposed to be so do you feel like we had a good handle on this year or no? I think we did you don't want to talk about my doctor visits anymore? no I'm just I like it I think there are definitely some teams like the ones we went over in the west that I could just be look foolish the whole year and maybe overrating the NFC South but what do you think? predict go ahead 2012?

1:20:14Bill Simmons:I think I'm 19 and 13 this year really? yeah how about you? what a regression that would be yeah big regression It's like me and the Washington Commanders. Yeah, yeah. I'll say six and 26. Cuz? Good job by you. Good job by you.

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