The Buffalo Curse, a Mega-Mailbag, QB Roulette, and Week 3 Picks With Joe House and Tom Pelissero

21:13Bill Simmons:There's a lot of... Surprisingly, I do not have the Bills-Chargers game as a teaser leg. Oh. I don't have them in anything. Yeah. And it's more because of some of the stats with the 0-2 teams and desperation. Yes. And the fact that I don't know if the Bills defense is any good. We have no idea. They certainly can't say it looked good the first two games. Speaking of the Knicks, Andrew from Boston wanted to point out, since you did that mailbag question about New York having great sports karma post-Knicks for the first time in a generation, Aaron Judge got injured with no set return. Jets blew a 10-point lead because their coach didn't understand the overtime rules.

21:56Bill Simmons:Jackson dart out for the year. Wasn't intentional. I try to obey all karma rules, but it was notable that it wasn't a great week for New York teams after. All those things happened. The high watermark of the season for the Giants was beating Dallas on Sunday night. Ethan from New York weighed in. Dude, the Yankees without Aaron Judge have all the makings for the all-time great Ewing Theory runs. Best turner in baseball, multi-time MVP. He's going to miss some of the postseason. And he said best scenario is the Yankees make the World Series in a week LA without him. Then he comes back and they lose to the Dodgers.

22:31And his Ewing Theory status is cemented.

22:34Bill Simmons:Wow. He does fit the, like, listen, the original definition of the Ewing theory is superstar, incredible media hype. Never actually won anything. Team plays better without him. Yankees have really good starters. I like their bullpen. And I think they can generate offense with or without him. Elements are in place. The elements are in place. Last week, Sal and I talked about the masked backup for QBs that you just wouldn't know. Incredible. Amazing. Nathan Wise suggests that we call it the mass slinger. Oh. Oh. Yeah. I don't know how we didn't think of that. Great job, Nathan. The cuz would have thought of that last week, but I think he had taken like seven Percocets and wasn't positive where he was because of the kidney stones.

23:21Are the kidney stones done? I think they're still going. Oh. I'm sorry to hear it. It's a really tough times for the cuz. He deserves better. Did you tell him to drink some hot water with lemon? I did.

23:36Bill Simmons:I told him to drink a lot of hot water. What a friend. Jacob H. in rural Washington says, I don't understand Vegas having a much higher valuation for an NBA franchise than Seattle, which is true. The Vegas thing is that like mid nines, allegedly edging toward 10. I just don't believe it. But now everybody thinks they're going to stagger it. Just name the Vegas team first and hope that they can build up the bidding for Seattle with more suitors, but the people that don't get the Vegas team. Jacob points out, Seattle has a rabid and loyal fan base that will show out even if the Sonics suck. Look how we show up for the Baroners, even though they always break our hearts.

24:13Bill Simmons:Vegas has no good fan base. Opposing fans will take over, blah, blah, blah. And he just doesn't understand how Vegas is more valuable. I've asked around on this, and I think it was the same thing that happened with the Seahawks. I think those super rich guys just are looking at convenience as much as anything. And Vegas is really easy for everybody to get to. Whereas Seattle is in the Pacific Northwest and it's three hours beyond anything. And I think it's a convenience thing. Does that make sense? For sure. There's also unquestionably all of the collateral revenue streams that are just... That come with Vegas.

24:55That come with Vegas.

24:56Bill Simmons:You build the arena, you change in 65 days, basically. Yes. Yeah, exactly right. It's those two things. But I do think the convenience thing is a big piece of it too. Boy, conspiracy bill was summoned by MC from North Attleboro. Said he's always been fascinated by Tom Brady in retirement. Beside all the weird personal life stuff, no comment, I love Tom Brady. I can't get over his arrangements with the NFL and Fox. He becomes a part-time owner in a team that he has no connection to. And we still not sure how he paid for it. becomes a top color commentary guy for the network covering games for teams in the largest media markets and seemingly circumvents all existing rules the league had to prevent those dueling arrangements.

25:40Bill Simmons:My question for Conspiracy Bill, did the NFL do this for Brady as a makeup for Deflategate? Boom. Seems like you think the answer to that is yes. Conspiracy Bill is levitating like the Niners put an electro substation next to my podcast right now. What a great theory. They also made it up to Kraft, didn't they? How'd they make it up to Kraft? Isn't he in some kind of... Isn't he in the Hall of Fame? Did he get in? I thought he didn't get in. Oh, well, whatever. I don't think maybe... He's got to get in. Yeah, at some point. I really like this deflate gate idea because it's still like, if you actually go back and sift through the facts of that whole thing, That was one of the all-time railroadings, and it's amazing he didn't sue the league and probably could have and gotten away with it.

26:33Oh, come on. The fucking Patriots have been cheating for decades. We just hear story after story about this cheating after that cheating after this cheating. I know. He got caught up with it. And so the league steps in on one element of it and punishes. And it was a very gentle punishment. I mean, let's be honest. All the evidence was debunked? For the serial cheating? Who gives a shit about the evidence? All the evidence was debunked? Doesn't matter. The league gets to make up the rules. That was a railroading. There was plenty of evidence of cheating for two decades. I'll fully admit maybe they did some other stuff.

27:06Bill Simmons:Yeah, they did. They sure did. But in this case, I don't think he did it. I think he liked the balls a little lighter. Doesn't matter. You liked the balls a little lighter. You liked the balls lighter. Suck a fat one. How about that? That's Editha Dink. Editha Dink.

27:25Bill Simmons:with the Manning cast this is from Emory from Columbus, Ohio I'm nervous, go ahead the Manning cast struggling Jason Kelsey appearing in roughly every third commercial Travis Kelsey continuing to absorb the gravitational pull of Taylor Swift's fame it has to be asked have the Kelsey brothers market corrected the Manning brothers at what point would this be a full undeniable market correction. He suggests Travis stars in a movie with Tom Cruise. I'm going to say no. Jason Kelsey runs for president. Donna Kelsey gets her own cooking show. The brothers launch a drama on Peacock called Kelsey. He goes on and on.

28:07Bill Simmons:I think it's already happened. You beat me to it. We're there. There's no question. They're way beyond. Travis Kelsey is married to Taylor fucking Swift. She is a worldwide phenomenon. that look at that respectfully i'm a fan of the mannings in general and i've enjoyed the manning cast in the past not right now but in the past and they're not in the same category the kelsey's are next level really tough to hold off the kelsey's especially when they're doing the sunday ticket ad with jason kelsey and his wife who also somehow has a podcast yeah i think it's already happened i see that ad i'm not telling you right now every time i see it i'm like oh where's my invitation?

28:51I want to go to that. I want to go see. Because they have food. Yeah, it looks great. It's a great spread. I think they're doing a great job with that fake hosting a party concept.

29:01Bill Simmons:Mike from Farmingville once knows Miles Garrett, the greatest ever NFL good stats, bad team player. Oh, wow. And he says he's never played a meaningful game in the NFL. That's not true. He has played in a playoff game. They even won a playoff game. He's played in three playoff games. But he said every other all-time great defensive player, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Deion Sanders, name it, led teams to championships. He spent his career compiling great stats in games that didn't matter. Now he goes ring chasing with the Rams who already won a championship. I'm going to say names that feel disrespectful.

29:33What was the most important game LaDainian Tomlinson ever played in? I'm not suggesting. I don't want to be disrespectful to LaDainian Tomlinson.

29:41Bill Simmons:He was in the playoffs a few times. Yeah. I mean, Miles Garrett was in the playoffs. Yeah. I just don't think football is like basketball except for quarterbacks. Yeah. You could be the greatest defensive end of all time. And if your offense sucks and your coach sucks, it's not going to matter. And he's now in the position where on the Rams with a really good team, if he's healthy, we'll see how he can affect everything. Reggie went to the Packers and that was the last piece of his career and all that stuff and they ended up winning. It feels like there should be a quarterback in this category.

30:14That's how I felt. You're not going to find anybody that rivals the all-time great status that Garrett has rightfully kind of earned. We can't think of any quarterbacks like Dan Marino. But Dan Marino did play in a Super Bowl.

30:31Bill Simmons:All the people who follow this shit say that the stuff Miles Garrett has been doing for the last eight, nine years is out of control and just double teamed all the time. Teams running away on the other side of him. And I don't think it's fair. Like the Patriots had a couple of great football players when I was younger. Like Andre Tippett was incredible. And we really only had one awesome season with him where he was at the forefront and they won the three straight playoff games in a row and went to the Superbowl, but he was awesome. And nobody, nobody outside of New England barely even knew who he was.

31:02Bill Simmons:Um, because our team. Yeah. Somebody will listen to this and have a good answer and send it to you. And then we'll, we'll have some good, you know, it's a, it's an interesting question. I think my instinct is the same as yours, which is we can't really do that to football players, can we? No. Maybe there's something we're not thinking of. If we're talking about best defensive players in our lifetime, it's LT and then everybody else for me. That's a fact. I actually think LT, his teams would have won no matter who the fuck was on it. He just would have figured it out. I've never seen anybody like that, dude.

31:37Bill Simmons:Me either. To me, it's him and Jerry Rice are the two that I just feel like are above everyone I've ever seen at their positions by far. All right, we're gonna take a break. Come back, do a couple more. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Here's something I look forward to between kickoffs this Sunday. With Sunday Spectacular, FanDuel Rewards Club members can unlock exclusive rewards throughout the day with offers tailored to their Rewards Club level. Depending on your level, you can unlock things like profit boost, reward boxes, point boost, challenges, Choose your reward offers.

32:13Bill Simmons:Choose your reward. Much more. The best part, new rewards drop throughout Sunday's game. So there's always something new to discover as the day unfolds. Check out Sunday Spectacular in the FanDuel app. Only on FanDuel Rewards Club. Make this your most rewarding season ever with FanDuel. 21-plus select states are 18-plus DC or Wyoming. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Football has a play for just about everything. And whether it's a flea flicker or a tush push, you need a plan that fits your unique situation.

32:54Bill Simmons:That's why State Farm takes the time to get to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life and for your budget. Now that's a solid game plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right, a couple more mailback questions. Steve from OKC said, you frequently talk about the 90-10 rule with star athletes. Use Westbrook as the example. Is Baker, the NFL Westbrook, an athlete who's great and can win victories without a great sport in cast bag coaching, but his 10 % is his decision-making, which is like getting hit by a truck in a crosswalk. I don't think Baker's a great athlete and I don't think it counts.

33:29That's respectfully disrespectful to Russell Westbrook. Yeah, Russell Westbrook is a top 60 player ever. Yes, yeah, not. He averaged a triple-double for a season. He won the MVP that season, undeserved, but he did do that. He did do that.

33:47Bill Simmons:There's a weird crossroads for Baker right now because he really was two quarterbacks last year, the guy from the first six, seven, eight games, whatever that was, and then he had all the injuries and fell apart. And then the guy we've watched this year, which has just been incredibly sloppy with the football and the basketball. Any ball. Any ball he's touching, he's sloppy with. But even in that post-Lightning drive, he had Ibuka for the winning touchdown, and he just overthrew it. And he used to, last year, he was making that play. Jeff from Cincinnati said, one of your great underrated bits of the past was when you would refer to Ryan Tannehill as Lauren Tannehill's husband.

34:27Bill Simmons:I got to be honest, I didn't even remember that. It's time to bring it back for Justin Herbert, who should now be called Madison Beer's fiancé. Oh, are they engaged? I don't even know. I just thought that was really mean. Alex from Hamilton, Ontario says, we're all collectively struggling to find a historical comp for the Herbert experience. Why is it in Kirk Cousins? He sends all the stats of their career stats per 17 games, career win percentage, completion percentage, yards per seven. It's actually pretty crazy how similar it is. 29 TDs per 17 games for Cousins 29 for Herbert it's pretty nuts QB ratings almost the same I was shocked and then the playoff stuff is obviously bad and then he decides maybe this is disrespectful to Kirk he's right he beats him in all this stuff he has a playoff win he can always say he beat Justin when he was 38 and Herbert was 28 and then he suggests this nickname Justin's second Cousins

35:32a plus second cousins i love it nobody can can disrespect kirk cousins career nobody can you like that i like that yeah i mean it's an incredible career all the money that he's made and going from place to place and each time he leaves the the place takes us like look at atlanta atlanta would be dying to have kirk cousins right now completely dysfunctional they just had to pay

35:56Bill Simmons:him 75 million dollars next season but they had a contract they had them

36:03Bill Simmons:alex s had a herbert thing he he thinks he's gen z j cutler big arm hollywood wife girlfriend limited success and excuses give this to the world i like second cousins going with that yeah and then um one more herbert thing but i've been talking about the nerd kings all year how Herbert lost it, Jordan Love gained it. Like, great timing for me with that whole bit. Who is the opposite of that player in the NFL? The guy who doesn't grade well analytically, but the eye test tells a different story. NBA version was obviously Jalen Brown, who is in the NFL. It's clearly Jalen Hurts, right? Oh, wow. Is Jalen Hurts the Jalen Brown of the NFL?

36:44Bill Simmons:We watch him. They both won a title. Yeah. It's pretty good. it's it it never feels great but the results are there his fans would rather have him than not have him he doesn't really make sense conventionally with how we look at the stats for those positions even the touchdown that he threw to beat the titans at the end that was a great play and a great pass right it was a great catch also but okay so it's jalen hurts i think is our answer That's a good one. I like that one. Anthony in Tom's River wants to know how I feel historically about Jalen Brunson hosting SNL. Historically? Which is happening on Saturday.

37:25Bill Simmons:And who are the best athletes ever to host the show? Oh, okay. All right. Does he have a chance to crack it? So I went through it. I think there's like 33, 34 athletes who have hosted the show in the last 50 plus years. People would have Jordan as one of the four best. And I actually don't think his was one of the four best. I don't even think that's a hot take. I'll go in reverse order for who I thought was the best. Yeah. Joe Montana. Okay. The famous sketch of when you could hear the person's inner monologue. And Phil Hartman's on a date, I think, with Jan Hooks. And they're like, would you like to get a glass of wine?

38:04Bill Simmons:And then it cuts to him. And he's like, I'd like to jump your bones. And it's like everything in your head. And then Joe Montana's the roommate. And he comes in. And they're like, hey, Bob, where are you going to go? and he's like, I'm going to go upstairs and masturbate. And then the Thought Bubble was like, I'm going to go upstairs and masturbate. It was just groundbreaking stuff. Remember, we were in college. I do remember. We were like, oh my God, Joe Montana. So he has to be fourth. All right. Peyton Manning was really good. Peyton Manning is outstanding. Yes. I have him third. Bill Russell, second.

38:39Bill Simmons:I don't remember Bill Russell. They did like an eight minute SNL sketch called The Black Shadow, which was a parody of The White Shadow with Bill Russell. And it was an absolute tour de force. You need to send that around to the internet. The internet needs to see this. It definitely exists. I think it bounces around every once in a while. I need to see it. And he was on Miami Vice playing Bernard King's father was another Bill Russell thing. And then the best one ever, it's almost not fair, but The Rock is the best athlete turned host ever. He did The Rock Obama, whatever that one was, but he was just ridiculous.

39:14Bill Simmons:So that'd be my top four. Any ones you would throw in or is that a good four for you? No, I'm fine with it. The MJ was more like... It was more a moment. Exactly. We felt like we were getting an inside look at a version of MJ that didn't exist because he was such a hero to us and the world was so different in terms of what was accessible to us in terms of consuming this person and persona. And he showed a real genuine sense of humor and he showed it and he was like, oh, MJ! It just added to the hagiography. Put that man up. The sainthood of MJ. Yeah, all we had to digest MJ was the games, going to a game, the posters, and the ads.

40:00Bill Simmons:And then every once in a while, he'd go on a talk show or he'd sit down with Amon Rashad. And other than that, we had no idea what was going on with him. Pre-game and post-game interviews were all monotone right to the point. Yeah, you're right. It's a really good point. That was the first time, SNL was the first time we're like, oh, I didn't know he did this too. Right. Oh, he has a sense of humor. Like we just really didn't know. I like this question. I'm happy with that one. Thank you. Hunter Price wants to know if the new Colts owner, Callie Gordon Ursay? Callie Ursay Gordon? I'm worried about where this is going.

40:33Bill Simmons:Go ahead. New Colts owner has ever surfaced on my new owner syndrome radar. Okay. I mean, I have loved the new owner syndrome forever. I'm glad you asked this in that manner. I know Indianapolis is the kind of non-threatening friend in the group that nobody wants to rag on. But trading two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner last year was indefensible. Who trades a massive amount of draft capital for a player who has zero evidence of helping a team win? Also, the whole listening into the coach headset is ridiculous. Does she make the new owner of Syndrome List? He didn't even mention the taking notes on the sideline.

41:06That's the most remarkable of all. how can we get access to those notes that's that's that's the starting point yeah she should publish as an instagram but the question that he he posed the big dummy um that's the general manager of jacksonville did that he traded all you know for travis hunter yeah he just he did that that guy

41:28Bill Simmons:uh i can't i can't pull his name i would just never do trades like that in football you what in football you just want as many bites on the apple as possible and if you're putting that much capital towards somebody, that person better be incredible. It's why we gave the Browns credit for the Miles Garrett trade. Right, first, second, third, and Jared Verse for a guy who's 30 who obviously wasn't 100 % healthy. Yeah, good job by them. My only thing with Callie Gore, I didn't like when she was so candid about the coach and GM are done if this doesn't go well. The GM deserves to go. Chris Ballard's heart.

42:06Bill Simmons:He's been manipulated in the press forever. Forever. There's like a feature about him every year and a half. But I thought it was weird to put it that way because I thought it just brought undue pressure to a team that had a quarterback coming back from an Achilles that nobody had high hopes for anyway. And then a lot of the other stuff just looks look at me to me. It's like, look at me. Taking notes. Here I am. Look at me. This happens in the NFL, though. They're the dumbest. The owners in the NFL are by far, I feel like. I mean, the Haslams, the stuff that they do, how cheap they get. The people in Tennessee who drove out Brable so they could enjoy this half decade of a shit sandwich.

42:52It'll probably be a full decade of a shit sandwich. James Gladstone, that's the general manager of the Jaguars. That trade was horrible. He was covering himself in shit glory.

43:03Bill Simmons:Speaking of the Eat a Fat Dick segment, Noah from Boise, Idaho said, my question is this. He's a Packer fan. I'm sorry, he's a Steelers fan. Why is the sad Aaron Rodgers retirement tour happening on the Steelers? He won the Packers the Super Bowl. They should be enduring this pain. I've been listening to McShay talk about how this is the best draft class in 10 years. Let's blow it up. Escape the Tomlin curse. Time is now. It is a good point. The retirement tour should not be like, this is like, this guy wasn't on our team during the salad years. Why do we have to deal with this guy? That's great.

43:41I love it.

43:44Bill Simmons:I agree with you. Brandon Draper is upset because the Lions lost to the electric Jada Daniels in his rookie of the year season. And now he's going to have his second straight year where he doesn't play a year of meaningful football. Oh, he's upset? I'm upset too. Well, they lost a shot at the title because of a guy who had one good season. Is that even worse than the team like the 90s Knicks always losing to Jordan or Allen falling short to Mahomes? It sucks to miss out on our title shot because of a one-hit wonder. Is that fair? Sure. Yeah, it's fair. They should have planned better. They had a bye week.

44:23They got to watch all of Jaden Daniels. They got to watch Washington. They had a home game. they game plan poorly and they executed it in the second half especially every time Jameer Gibbs touched the ball he gained like 11 and a half yards and they couldn't figure out how to get him the ball and golf through five picks like what do you play better what do you want me to say

44:43Bill Simmons:I knew you'd have a reaction like that which is why I had the question here's another mean Jordan Daniel's question um he said much like Mr. Joe House I'm a long suffering fan of the Washington football team um he wonders if Jade Daniels is not built for the NFL. I know you have concerns about that too, but he's perfect for flag football. Oh. Is the answer for Washington, draft a new QB, release Jaden Daniels, and he can become the face of USA flag football and get his soul back and gets to play backyard football without getting hit. We get our ideal QB. He asked Joe House, would you rather watch Jaden Daniels suffer through an injury play career with the Commanders or be the face of Team USA say as we dominate the world in Olympic football?

45:30I hate this question. I figured you would.

45:33Bill Simmons:You don't have to answer. I don't know what to do. I mean, let me, this guy right here, give it to the sky. Isn't there a way to just not have them take huge hits all the time and have things happen? The, here's the thing. His injured elbow was cause he fell down. He didn't, he didn't take a hit. He ran for almost 70 yards against Dallas and he was being super smart about the way that he ran. He looked really good. And that offense was humming. The offense was going to be, this season, formidable because, you know, that Antonio Williams is revealing himself as a guy who can get separation, check the tight end as soon as he gets over his latest hamstring issue, even with the offensive line compromise, but it's over now.

46:20Cosme's in concussion protocol. It's Mariotta time. But I do wonder he could come back if they can get, you know, a modern brace on that elbow. So second injury to that elbow, right? Yeah, but it's just a dislocated elbow. It looks grotesque. And I'm not suggesting that he can play. He can still play if they can protect that elbow and keep it from popping out. He's not his legs aren't hurt. His throwing arm isn't hurt. And he was making good decisions this season in terms of how he scrambled and the hits he was willing to take. He wasn't putting himself in harm's way. He just fell down. He fell down on that.

46:58And it's clear that, you know, the internet doctors have said, you know, that can happen. It can pop out again because, you know, at some point he'll get surgery to tighten the whole structure. But he doesn't have to do it this season because they have braces and people want to know why wasn't he wearing a brace in the first place so it didn't happen. And it feels like a fair question to me. I don't know. Maybe he wasn't comfortable with it. Maybe they didn't experiment with it. But I honestly think he will come back this season and play and be effective. That's what I think.

47:29Bill Simmons:So the reason I want to do that question is I completely agree with you. And I think people overreacted to the injury if they felt like this was an injury-prone Jalen, Jaden Daniels thing now. Same thing twice with the elbow. Fixable. And I thought he looked good in the games I watched. I thought he was effective in the second half of the first game. And then in the Dallas game, he was doing stuff. But to me, I would have much more concern about somebody like Penix having his third ACL surgery. Multiple ACL tears. Or somebody like Tua who clearly can't play anymore. Right. I don't think there's enough evidence yet that you can't create an awesome offense around Daniels.

48:08Bill Simmons:And if anything, if I was another team, it was like, oh, you're worried about him long term? We'll take him and then build an offensive line and some sort of infrastructure around him to protect him. But I thought he was really good before he got out. The rebuttal to injury prone is that he wasn't injured in his rookie. And he took shots his rookie season. He took the shots. And we've seen the shots over his college career. And that was the big question mark. Will Washington take Drake May or Jaden? And you see the shots that Jaden took in his college career. Can he handle that in the NFL? He missed 10 games last season with three different injuries.

48:48The elbow was twice. and now he's going to miss some games because of the same elbow. But if he comes back in three to four weeks and plays the balance of the season out and shows, you know, that this offense, then I'm okay because they have to make a decision with his extension. But this is probably more time than people care to hear on the Bills. Well, I mean, there's a relevant question

49:10Bill Simmons:with Washington, though. Do you want to be a bottom four worst team? And maybe that makes the Daniels decision easier. It's too early to say. The problem is that Washington... They're going to be bad. Their defense is bad. They don't have the bodies. They don't have the talent in the secondary. We might be discussing that in a little while on this program. I'm in Boston right now. Yeah. I made one bet on Fandle and one bet only. Okay. The Miami Dolphins have the worst record in football. What do you think the odds were? it has you have to lay juice now there's no way that it's plus money because uh it was plus money before the season day in arizona i have the same bet i bet both arizona and miami to have the worst record and it was north of two to one now is it minus 160 what is it it was plus 110 get out of here what time of day when an hour ago oh lord i live in a place where fan duel is legal and And I'll just leave it at that.

50:15Bill Simmons:When we go to a break before we do football picks, you can put it in. Can I borrow? I need$10 ,000. Can I borrow? Plus$110. What are we doing? Whatever the rules are in terms of legal gambling, I know I'm allowed to borrow money from you to make a game. Are we kidding? Plus$110? That is outrageous. What do you think the odds were for them to go 0-17? Bet it. Who cares? What are the odds? I mean, is it plus$210? I don't know. No, it's better. Come on. Plus two. Oh, and 17. Not winning a game. Yeah. Have you, has anybody watched this football team? They don't have professional. It's 10 to one for them to go.

50:53Better right now. Better. Like that means you're not paying attention. If that price is out there, go through their, the, the, their roster and the schedule and come up with a game that they're going to lose by, by less than a touchdown. Find the one.

51:09Bill Simmons:It's hard to find a game where they're even going to be plus three. They play the Jets twice. Guess what? The Jets are fucking good. I mean, you know, they're... They're talented. They have talent on both sides of the ball. Not in the headsets. This is a really long, ambitious question from a Bills fan named Drew who wants to know why we don't talk about the Buffalo sports curse with the Clippers. Oh. Because they came from Buffalo and how Buffalo has escaped all blame here. And he mentions... this is the last 60 years. The Bills missed the first Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Tim Horton died in a car crash after a game.

51:50Bill Simmons:Sabres lost the 75 cup final. Braves moved. Clint Moracek's throat slashed by a skate. Wide right to the Giants. Lost an MLB expansion bid. Three Super Bowl losses in a row. NHL, it was four in a row, but three in a row after wide right. After wide right. NHL finals, the skate in the crease, the whole game. Music City Miracle. Flyers phantom goal through the side of the net in the playoffs. That was a good one. 17-year playoff drought for the Bills. Traded Hasek in 0-1. Lose to Steelers backup. Missed 2005 playoffs. Lost game seven. He's final loss to Carolina. All kinds of terrible Sabre stuff, including guys leaving and 14-year playoff drought.

52:34Bill Simmons:They lost the Connor McDavid lottery. They lost the Chiefs to basically three years in a row, including the 13 seconds. DeMar Hamlin, four Chiefs losses, actually. The OT playoff loss last year, and then last year in hockey, the Game 7 OT loss. And he said, by the way, there's way more if you want some. And he wants to know if there's any way to shake the Buffalo bad luck, escape the ghost of President William McKinley. This makes a lot of sense with the Clippers. They already had the Buffalo stink on them, and then they moved and tripled the stink. and I do think there's something there. I don't know.

53:13Bill Simmons:This is the pressure for Josh Allen now. I don't think anyone has more curse removal potential in any sport than Josh Allen. Well, I like that. Even in Cleveland, LeBron did win in 16. So if LeBron's won the Super Bowl, you still at least had the LeBron title. Buffalo getting to the Super Bowl, Buffalo getting to the NHL final. I mean, are we really? That's not a curse. I'm just saying nothing good ever happened to get us over the hump. They haven't won anything. You got Josh Allen as your quarterback. There's no Buffalo title. I understand that. I got it. But getting to the Super Bowl four straight years, that's pretty good.

53:52That's pretty good. It's a nice run.

53:54Bill Simmons:So my counters to Drew, A, Josh Allen was a gift. A gift. B, those Jim Kelly teams were awesome. Everybody loved those teams. They were super fun. They just happened to be in the worst possible pre-salary cap era against these different juggernauts, right? But those were still memorable, awesome teams. Three, thank God the Clippers left. You want to deal with that team the last 60 years? 50 years? That was a drive to the airport. Go eat a fat dick team. I think you were the big winners. So it's not all bad. Not all bad. That's what I would say. Last email from Payton in Charlotte. Said, love the pod.

54:34Bill Simmons:You've built an impressive podcast empire. Its foundations are shaky. You're in Sal's use of the term zag is incredible. The whole point of zig when everyone else zags is that zig is the contrarian move. Bill, you somehow zagged on the word zig, planted your flag on zag, and now zag is market corrected zig. And you always talk about the zag, which feels historic adjacent. is this the apex mountain of the Bill Simmons language issues from Peyton and Charlotte? So he's saying I should have said Zig. Is he right? I think he's right. I think he's wrong. The Zig isn't the contrarian move. The Zag is the contrarian move.

55:16I thought because Zag was second, Zag is the Zag. Zig is in the direction. Zig is straight. Zag is the move. I thought. I don't know. Now we have to look it up. Did you look it up? Do you know the answer to this? I didn't look it up. I thought he was right. As usual, I took a listener for the face value. Maybe I should have Googled this. You know what we need? We need a cunning linguist. We need a cunning linguist to come help us with this, Bill Simmons. Let's get one. Let's get them on the pod or have a cunning linguist send us the correct. I think you're using it right. I feel like Zag is the right use, but what do I know?

55:53Bill Simmons:I definitely don't know. Thanks to everybody who's sending those questions to BSPodcast33 at gmail.com. Great job. House, you're going to take a break. You're going to go see if your wife will make us do tonight. We're going to talk to Pellicero. And we're going to come back and do picks. I'll see you in a second. Yes. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday all in one place. This is my best friend in the world. And since YouTube has crowned me their CMO, Chief Multi-View Officer, it's my job to tell you which four games to serve a spot.

56:28Bill Simmons:In the multi-view this week. All right, so looking at the slate, we have a lot of early games on Sunday. I think Chargers-Buffalo has to be in your multi-view. Let's see what's going on with the Chargers. Buffalo's going to score some points. Can't lose with that one. Pats-Jacksonville. Really, really telling game from both teams. I think Jacksonville needs a little more than Pats, but I think that's going to be a really good one. Houston Indy? Is Houston really going to go 0-3? Let's throw that in there. That's a great one. And then last but not least, Carolina Cleveland has to be the most fascinating early game of week three.

57:05Bill Simmons:Is Deshaun, is this for real? Is Carolina's offense for real? What's going to happen? It's in Cleveland. How are the fans going to react? Can't wait to watch it. That's the beauty of multi-view. Instead of flipping channels every two minutes, you just get to build your own Sunday slate. New users can get an NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just$30 a month. Get every game, every Sunday, all in one place with NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube TV. New users pay$240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of$30 a month. First charge at purchase. Availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local and national games.

57:36Bill Simmons:YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. This episode is brought to you by Carhartt. We spend a lot of time talking about football, the players, the coaches, the big plays, but there's a whole other team we rarely think about. the people who make the game possible. The workers building stadiums, paving parking lots, growing the grass, welding the goalposts, even making the footballs. They're committed to their craft and they're doing the work long before kickoff. Carhartt is proud to outfit those crews. So next time you're watching a game, take a second to appreciate the people behind it.

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58:44Bill Simmons:Louis, Missouri. All right, Tom Palacero's here. You can watch and listen to him on the Ringer NFL show all the time, as well as Pop. When's the next Netflix game?

58:55Tom Pelissero:Thanksgiving Eve. A little break here. Packers, Rams in LA.

58:59Bill Simmons:That's a don't get divorce game. My wife's not happy about that one at all. She can't believe it.

59:05Tom Pelissero:Imagine being my wife and finding out, hey, yeah, you got this new job. You're going to be gone for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Oof. Kids were not thrilled.

59:14Bill Simmons:You're there for the other holidays. Arbor Day? I don't know, Valentine's Day?

59:18Tom Pelissero:Yeah, really important one.

59:20Bill Simmons:We're going to do a new gimmick. You're going to open a six... Normally, I open the six-pack up on this podcast. You're going to open a six-pack. We're going to do six things that you're fascinated in as we tape this Thursday late afternoon, Eastern time. Jackson Dart Giants, tell me what's going on. Do they feel like the season's over? How do they fix this? Can they fix it?

59:40Tom Pelissero:There's a lot of moving parts right now with the Giants. For right now, they paid Jameis Winston. He's going to be the starting quarterback. Jay Kaner's in line to back him up this week. But I would not be surprised at all if we see them add a quarterback over the next few weeks here. Jameis' play and how things go for the Giants is going to determine what type of quarterback and what role that guy's in. If you look at their schedule, you couldn't ask for a better time to be figuring out, can we win a game with our backup quarterback? You got Tennessee at home, Arizona at home, and Washington when Jaden Daniels is probably still not back.

1:00:16Tom Pelissero:I mean, those are the best three games you could possibly have. You know, are they three and two at the end of that? Are they one and four? How does that influence exactly what Joe Shane and John Harbaugh want to do? I would tell you, they definitely want to add a quarterback, whether that's a younger guy, whether that's a veteran quarterback. is obviously not a lot of like legit walk in the door starters, unless you're going to drag, you know, Derek Carr or Ryan Tannehill or somebody off the couch and hope for the best. So you're probably realistically bringing in somebody to be behind Jameis, at least initially, but they are going to try to add another quarterback here.

1:00:49Tom Pelissero:And again, the spot that they're in will probably kind of dictate exactly what quarterback that is.

1:00:54Bill Simmons:And any guy they bring in probably isn't good. Well, it's not like there's good quarterbacks just sitting there in the grocery store waiting to get plucked out of the aisle. Right.

1:01:04Tom Pelissero:Unless it's, you know, Joe Flacco a couple of years ago and he's sitting there or it's Carson Wentz last year. And like, you have a guy, like there's circumstances. Right now, though, if you look on the street, Bill, it's like you have Russell Wilson, who looks very comfortable wearing a suit and looking dapper on TV talking about the game. Jimmy Garoppolo is out there. I don't know how much, you know, how desperate Jimmy is. Why is Jimmy Garoppolo out there? I don't know.

1:01:27Bill Simmons:Did he just not want to get hit anymore? Like, what's the deal? because it's not like he's old.

1:01:32Tom Pelissero:He has made a lot of money. He's had a lot of injuries. And unless it's like the perfect situation, I don't think Jimmy just wants to come back and cash a$5 million check to go be a backup somewhere right now. Coming in and playing for the Giants, if they show that the rest of the roster can stay healthy, I do think that that would be something that would intrigue him. But don't you already kind of have that player? You've got Jameis. Not the Jameis we saw Monday night. That's the worst Jameis we've ever seen. And, you know, Matt Nagy, I thought, did a good job in the game. It's like, just give him some easy passes.

1:02:04Tom Pelissero:Oh, he one-hopped a ball into the flat? No, normally, it's like three touchdowns, three interceptions. You can live with that because you kind of know what you're getting. I think we'll see a better Jameis.

1:02:13Bill Simmons:It was like the Chuck Knobloch, Steve Sachs kind of throws.

1:02:16Tom Pelissero:Completely. The yips, where it's just like it looked like something cracked. No, he had one throw over the middle that was pretty good. But all the other ones, like, guys are open. You know, credit Nagy for it. Like, he got guys open and Jameis couldn't deliver. I think that they'll have a game plan that's built around him. He'll actually get reps this week. He'll play better, but I don't think that that discourages them from trying to get another quarterback in the room because right now, Hayter was the only other guy. He's now your two. He's on the practice squad at this point, barring them adding somebody before Sunday.

1:02:44Bill Simmons:Yeah, the last level of when a quarterback is really bad in the game is when the receivers are just stopping their route because the ball has no chance, and you just see the life leave their body. they're just even at the place the ball's still bouncing and they're just like oh my god shoot me in the head please

1:03:01Tom Pelissero:the body language where the arms kind of go

1:03:03Bill Simmons:yeah they're just so devastated but this leads to my second one that you have that I want to hit about what do the Chargers do if this keeps falling apart there's in the basketball side of me football doesn't work this way the basketball side of me would be like yeah could could there be like dart and three first-round picks? And do you get into the Herbert race if you're the Giants and try to just godfather off of them to save your season because you like their team? I don't think they like their team that much, but it does make me wonder with the Chargers, Harbaugh will press the eject button, right?

1:03:41Bill Simmons:Because that's his history if he doesn't like this team. They committed to Harbaugh, to Herbert, but what are your moves if they go 0-3 and this is just clearly not going to work. What happens?

1:03:53Tom Pelissero:I mean, going into the season, you're looking at the schedule and going, okay, a couple of games at home, you know, you got the Cardinals and the Raiders, like those are easy wins. All right. Now the meat of the schedule hits week three when you go to Buffalo. Now they're Owen too. They didn't look good. Forget even losing the games to teams that weren't good last year. Like they didn't look good. The offense is just all over the place. It looks sloppy and the pre-snap penalties and all these things. So now you're Owen too, staring down like the murderer's row of your schedule, starting out with the Bills.

1:04:23Tom Pelissero:Then they got the Seahawks. I mean, it's brutal. And so, all right, if 0-2 becomes 0-3 and becomes 0-4, what are the moves left? Like Jim already made his biggest move he could by firing the OC and the offensive line coach after last year. You bring in Mike McDaniel, who's supposed to fix everything. It doesn't look great right now. Jim's not the kind of guy, like he has no familiarity with that offense. It's not like he's going to take a deep look at it and go, hey, Mike, we got to tweak X, Y, and Z. Like, that's just not his scheme. That's not what Jim is as a coach.

1:04:52Bill Simmons:What's he good at at this point as a head coach? I'm not saying that he's a culture and like a

1:04:57Tom Pelissero:people manager, right? He's a CEO type of coach. He wants to manage just like, you know, he's not even a guy who stands in front of the team a great deal. You know, he's not addressing them every single day. It's more just setting, hey, we're the culture and we're going to be the tough team. Like, that's what he's about. And they just got punched in the face by the Cardinals and the Raiders on their home field, it's a tough spot because, all right, you're not going to change out the play caller at this point. I mean, you have, you know, Adam Gase is on staff. You could hand it to him. You get handed to Shane Day, but you're probably more likely to go.

1:05:31Tom Pelissero:It's a new scheme. Everybody's learning it. And we know Mike can call plays. So it's not that, well, you can't bench your tackles. You actually like invested in a high pick on Joe Walt, you know, a lot of money in Rashawn Slater. Like, those guys aren't playing great. You know, your interior offensive line, it's like, it's all these moving parts. I would say this, though, in terms of what they do. I don't think that there's any magic bullet out there for the Chargers. Because even if you start going, it's like, it's Jim Harbaugh on the hot seat. They owe him a ton of money for another three years.

1:06:01Tom Pelissero:He signed through 2028 at a pretty high number. The Chargers are not a team that has a history, A, of paying coaches that much money, certainly B, of firing coaches. when they own that much money. What do they pay for? Well, they're paying rent to Stan Kroenke. It's so funny. That's just, that's not their history. So, all right, Herbert. Well, you can say, yeah, people are going to call him. If they, you know, again, if it goes to 0-5, 1-5, whatever, like they're going to get calls about Herbert. I don't see the organization punting on a, what is he, 28-year-old quarterback in favor of a 65-year-old head coach.

1:06:34Tom Pelissero:And on top of that, Herbert's got a no-trade clause. You really think he's eager to say, yeah, I'll get traded to Cleveland, or Atlanta and his fiancés in L.A.? Like, why would he go with that? That's what I mean with, like, there's no magic bully. Like, I don't, there's not, like, a single move or a trigger of events. It's always felt like this was kind of the two-year plan here, bring in Mike, pair him with Justin, have Jim running the thing. They could turn it around. They could upset the Bills who are having a totally different conversation next week. But if it continues to unravel, it's going to be a really long season in a building where, like everywhere Jim is, His whole philosophy is more is more.

1:07:12Tom Pelissero:It's more work, more hours, more time. Great when you're winning. When you start to lose, that stuff can really weigh on people's shoulders.

1:07:21Bill Simmons:Yeah, we've talked a lot about Herbert on this podcast because he's the most fun. He's the most closest to an NBA player in terms of people arguing both sides of him, right? The one interesting thing I thought, because there was a lot of dialogue and discourse about him this week, was that he skipped the OTAs because he was in France with Madison Beer, his girlfriend. And there was like the hint of ever since he's met his girlfriend and he wants to be a celebrity as much as be the quarterback and he's not in there doing the work. And that was kind of floating around there. Have you heard about that?

1:07:55Bill Simmons:Like what's the word on him as like a leader?

1:07:58Tom Pelissero:I have asked people if that was a big deal. And the answer has been no. It's not like this was a locker room revolt. It wasn't. Remember when Aaron Rodgers missed the minicamp and went to Egypt and claimed it was because the schedule had changed? And everyone was like, this doesn't quite add up. And Robert Sala was like, I got to fine you for it. It was like this awkward thing. I didn't get that sense. Also, OTAs are voluntary. But you'd like to think, especially when you're wired like Jim Harbaugh, who's all football all the time, your quarterback's going to be the guy leading that culture. But I don't get the sense, coaches, players, that people were just like, oh, can't believe that he's not around.

1:08:36Tom Pelissero:It wasn't portrayed like that. Okay. As a leader, you know, he's this. Tom Brady wouldn't have done it. Tom Brady would have been there for the U.S. He did those late years. Late years, he was in and out when he was trying to keep the family together. Right. It was a little bit.

1:08:48Bill Simmons:He was on a seven-hour work schedule. Yeah. But during the Patriots era, like famously, like it seems like the most famous, best quarterbacks are like you get there at 530 in the morning. They're already there. It's like that kind of thing. I don't know.

1:09:01Tom Pelissero:It's also like Tom's very, you know, type A in a lot of ways. like Herbert was the whole knock on him or one of the questions the teams had about him when he was coming out in the draft back in 2020 was he's this kind of quiet almost shy kid from Oregon he's never really left the state he grew up right by Eugene he went to Oregon for college like is he going to come out of his shell I don't think your personality changes a whole lot that's not to say that he's a bad leader it's just if you think that he's going to be the you know the guy who's going to start getting in your face and screaming at you.

1:09:34Tom Pelissero:We saw some emotion from him last week. That's just not really him. And I think it's probably unfair to say, like, you gotta, you know, when times get tough, change everything about yourself. No, you want to double down on being you. It's, there's a lot of other stuff going on around him, including the fact he's getting his ass kicked behind that offensive line right now.

1:09:52Bill Simmons:What's his trade value? Just out of curiosity. Like, how many picks are we talking?

1:09:57Tom Pelissero:If he were willing to waive the no trade clause, it's it's got to be three first round picks and more. I mean, the Russell Wilson trade, if I remember correctly, was two ones, two, maybe two twos or two and a three and three players. And that was Russell Wilson in his early 30s, where he had already shown some like little signs of maybe he's not at his peak anymore, where Herbert, I know what the numbers are, but he's still a really talented quarterback. and physically he's ahead of where Russell is just from, he's got the size and he's got the arm. He's got the toughness. He's a really tough dude.

1:10:35Tom Pelissero:It would be the house. You would have to give up the house to go and get. I wouldn't do that.

1:10:41Bill Simmons:Would you do that? I wouldn't do that.

1:10:44Tom Pelissero:Look at the desperation around the league. If you went back, if you read my story in the sweep last week, the Deshaun Watson backstory and remind yourself. Excellent. Thank you. How many teams were trying actively to trade for Deshaun Watson while he was facing dozens of civil allegations of sexual misconduct and a suspension and your fan base probably wasn't going to like him and he hadn't played in a year? There were five teams lined up. They were all willing. I mean, the Dolphins are willing to do it in the heat of it. Then when the charges criminally, there were no charges filed, there were four teams that all agreed to like the general structure of a trade that the Texans wanted.

1:11:24Tom Pelissero:The Panthers, the Falcons, the Saints and the Browns were all willing to pay it. And think about that. That's for Deshaun Watson with everything going on and he hadn't played like this guy in Justin Herbert. Maybe the contract never happens again because it hasn't happened since the Watson trade. but he would have an unbelievable amount of leverage in terms of not just, hey, you got to give up all these picks, but also why wouldn't he be able to command a five-year, $350 million contract out of it? He's a really good player at that position, and nobody ever becomes available.

1:11:59Bill Simmons:So that leads to the third thing in the six-pack. What are the traded quarterback options? if I'm looking for somebody to try to either elevate or replace a guy? Are we basically looking at Mac Jones and who else? Who are the guys that you could actually go get?

1:12:15Tom Pelissero:Mac is one, but that's going to cost you. I don't think that they do that. So what is that?

1:12:20Bill Simmons:Is that like a second?

1:12:21Tom Pelissero:Second or a third? You know, there's not many first-round picks to get traded at the deadline. There's rarely trades involved more than a three in season, but it's also a quarterback. If your guy goes down, and I don't know if that would make sense for the Giants just because the scheme's different, but any of those teams that run the Kyle stuff, you'd probably be interested. But like, that's a pretty big price to pay for a quarterback who's in a contract here. J.J. McCarthy is another. You know, there's not many dudes. J.J.

1:12:47Bill Simmons:McCarthy.

1:12:48Tom Pelissero:He's on his rookie contract. Wow. Winning record as a starter. All these teams did work on him a couple of years ago. They know the good and the bad of McCarthy. And right now, you know, that's one of the first calls you're going to make if you lose a guy is to the Vikings. Just be like, all right, like, what would it take? who else are you going to go get that's got still potential upside i mean anthony richardson but i don't think the colts even want to trade anthony richardson right now because he's in a contract

1:13:12Bill Simmons:here you're not anyone trading for anthony richardson come on hey if we get into the

1:13:16Tom Pelissero:desperate mode here we had how many quarterbacks got hurt last week three guys including one for the season like these are the names you start to get to the one that'll be really interesting will be kirk cousins he's playing at a good level right now he's on sort of a one-year contract but it actually has a tail on it where the Raiders have an exclusive window next March to either cut him or trade him or potentially pick up his option. So they've got time to kind of play this thing out. What the Raiders have to decide is, are you willing to trade him? If two and oh becomes like three and one or four and two.

1:13:49Tom Pelissero:Now the schedule gets a lot harder from this point moving forward, but let's say they're still in it. And like Mark Davis is celebrating his suite because he has a relevant football team for the first time in five years. Max Crosby's all fired up on the sideline. Like, do you really do it? Well, you've got Fernando Mendoza and I don't anticipate as long as they're in the playoff chase that this isn't going to be the, the Kurt Warner, Eli Manding, awkward handoff where you're five and four. And it's like, we just, we need to put Eli in. They're going to ride with Kirk as long as they're alive or until his play takes a dip.

1:14:19Tom Pelissero:But if you get that opportunity and someone offers you, let's say a third round pick for Kirk cousins, I don't know if you can get that, but somebody gets hurt and he's available for not a whole lot of money, like that would make a ton of sense. So that'll be one that'll be dictated by circumstances. But I would absolutely not rule out the possibility of Kirk Cousins being traded during the season.

1:14:39Bill Simmons:That seems like the right name. But the Giants obviously don't think that they're a Super Bowl contender because that would be the guy you'd go after. It would be interesting if he got traded after signing the cheapest contract possible while he's also getting paid a ton of money from a third team. I don't know if we've seen that before.

1:14:55Tom Pelissero:more teams paying guys making minimum salaries somewhere because they're getting paid by somebody else this has to be the the nfl high that we've had yeah maybe two it could be in

1:15:04Bill Simmons:the trade too uh next one for the six pack the the joey porter jr seems like the best holdout free agent who might get traded maybe um pittsburgh certainly could have used him last week i don't think pittsburgh season is necessarily going in a great place to begin with but how does this end

1:15:23Tom Pelissero:Defensively, without their top corner, they're pretty good. And the offense didn't show up. Rogers got the shit kicked out of them last week. But like in terms of the defense, like they're legit. Like they're going up against the Bengals this week. You know they'd love to have Joey Porter Jr. out there against Jamar Chase and T.E. Higgins. He said he talked to the media for the first time today. It looked like he said kind of all the right things. They're not extending them like that. They negotiated up to week one. That's their policy. It's over. He can't come back and like take that deal now.

1:15:51So really, it's he says he's going to play at some point when he's ready or else you trade him like there is going to be trade interest because there's nobody out there.

1:16:00Tom Pelissero:To your point, there's no other of these kind of hold in things. He does have a back issue. How big of a factor is it? Actually, we can certainly debate that. But he's the one guy and there's a bunch of teams that don't have corners. Like when when Jerry Jones is walking through the bowels of the stadium the other night saying nothing more dangerous than an old man with money. I'm like, he's going to try to trade for Joey Porter Jr. you. He's going to try to add that extra piece to the defense. That to me is the most logical team. If they're going to, what is it? A second second would be my, would be my best guess.

1:16:30Tom Pelissero:If this were a different time, if this were March, you know, Trent McDuffie went for the number 31 overall pick. It'd probably be in there. You're a little bit later now. It's probably a two. Remember you also could, you know, he's in a contract here, but you could tag them. So you could justify to yourself, Hey, even if we don't get a deal done with Porter now, we can always tag him and retain our rights or tag and trade them. And for the Steelers, they could also tag them or they could let them walk and get a comp pick. There's a lot of different things in terms of the value.

1:16:55Bill Simmons:Seems like there's bad blood there, though. That's like something shifted with it. I like the Cowboys idea, though, because the scenario would be they lose in Brazil to Baltimore, right? And Jerry's been awfully quiet. It's been a running joke for everybody, but they lose. And then that Monday, it's like, we have now traded a conditional first round pick that could be a second for Joey Porter. And here's this giant contract he shouldn't get.

1:17:21Tom Pelissero:Or we're ready to go. Or it could be you trade a, you do it after you win. It could be the, oh man, we're so close.

1:17:28Bill Simmons:You know, Jerry would like that one. And then you just go,

1:17:33Tom Pelissero:this is the time we're going to strike. I could see it. Like the bad blood thing is interesting because it seems like Joey Jr. is in a good place. Remember, dad's also around. It's kind of an awkward situation. Like, what other team has a franchise legends kid who they're in a contract standoff with? And Joey is around the team. You know, he used to be on staff there. That dynamic is a little bit odd. But it seems like it's in a fine spot in terms of, you know, Joey Jr. continuing to work his way back onto the field. It's just at some point, if you're getting legit offers for him, I'd be really tempted to take it.

1:18:09Bill Simmons:Well, especially when his peers all got extensions and he didn't. Right. So if you're Porter, you're like, okay, I guess I know how you guys feel. You don't think I'm on that same level where other people do. There you go. Two more in the six pack. Deshaun Watson. House and I are about to talk about this in Ringer 107. What if he's good again? what if he plays well this week against uh carolina who has a bad bad defense in the game that everybody thought would just be a boo fest for three hours what if last week how he looked against tampa was a sign of what's also going to happen this week where he's kind of back

1:18:51Tom Pelissero:what happens then not too late for a five-year 230 million dollar fully guaranteed extension it's such a unique situation because go back to 2022 all those teams were willing to do it and now he's he's four years five years older and he's had a bunch of injuries like the guy that played last week looked like a real nfl quarterback like he made some big time throws

1:19:19Bill Simmons:in the game so from that he dominated the second half he was on it he was whipping it around and And the offense had real pace. I couldn't believe it watching it.

1:19:29Tom Pelissero:And by the way, those rookie receivers they got, the Browns draft class last year was really good. They nailed it. Those rookie receivers this year, you know, Casey Concepcioni, even more so Denzel Boston looks like, you know, he's the guy that they've lacked to like actually take a top off the defense. I don't know what the market would be if Deshaun played this out. Now he's got a wonky thing in his contract where essentially for cap purposes, he won't just be a free agent. they'll have to release him after the start of the league year in March. His contract, he won't be on the same contract, but they set it up to keep his cap hits out into 2027 and 28.

1:20:04Tom Pelissero:So there's a little bit of a ripple effect, but like who's bidding on Deshaun Watson, knowing everything, you know, even if you're comfortable with the background you do on him, you still got to be sitting around the room being like, are all our fans going to hate this guy? Like, are they going to give him a chance? I don't think it happens. But if he plays better, he's going to be on the short list of dudes you can at least bring in as a bridge quarterback i

1:20:25Bill Simmons:mean i can't why wouldn't the browns keep him at that point that's playing better it's not like they don't have a court you know it's not like they have better options i i can't even rule out

1:20:34Tom Pelissero:that you keep him around if he plays like he did last week it's one game the whole offense was terrible in week one but you know they flashed to the sideline after the game and you know everybody's soaking wet because of the two-hour delay or whatever like the first guy they cut to Deshaun and he's hugging uh J.W. Johnson Jimmy Haslam's son-in-law on the sideline who's like very involved with the Browns organization like the relationship internally is better than I think everybody realizes you just have to do the calculus on can you heal the external relationship and if the Browns don't bring him back he's not just your average quarterback you're bringing in on like a one-year incentive laden deal like you're taking on all sorts of other stuff it'll be absolutely unique.

1:21:17Tom Pelissero:It is a one-of-one type of situation and his play will dictate where it goes from here.

1:21:22Bill Simmons:It's definitely the most fascinating week three plot other than the 0-2 teams. If he's good again, as that's happening in real time. But he's going against Bryce Young, which is the last thing for our six-pack. Bryce Young, Caleb Williams linked together forever for variety of reasons. You would have had Caleb would have been minus 1 ,000 heading into the season on who was going to have a better season, him or Bryce Young. And yet Bryce Young was, it was good again. Um, we'll see on Cleveland on the road this week, but just where does it stand with these two guys, not just against each other, but, uh, how they're going to look the rest of the

1:21:58Tom Pelissero:way with Caleb, you know, despite what it looked like on the field, he's going to be back soon. He didn't practice today. It's unlikely that he plays Monday night. I know some people took my initial tweet the wrong way. I said he's not, they're not ruling him out. Meaning it's not a 0 % chance. He's not practicing.

1:22:16Bill Simmons:You broke the story we should mention.

1:22:17Tom Pelissero:I did break the story that it was, it showed no, you know, no major injury. And so they're not even ruling him out this week. Meaning if he's feeling good enough by Monday, they'll put him out there. Now, if they get to the end of the week and the hamstring is still an issue, obviously they'll hold him back, but this is not a long-term injury for Caleb. And so.

1:22:34Bill Simmons:Well, wait a second. If all the shit he took on social media this week, which he had to have seen because he's under 30 years old. So there's no way he's on social media. Sure. Or not on it. Would that make him want to come back to be like, I'll show you guys I am tough. And then he's back on Monday night. Because they could beat Philly if he's even 60%.

1:22:54Tom Pelissero:Are you saying or does he milk it for three weeks to make it clear that it was a more major injury? Well, you could go that way too.

1:22:59Bill Simmons:Yeah. It could be like, yeah, I actually was hurt. Look, I'm not playing again.

1:23:03Tom Pelissero:It comes down to, for the Bears, it'll come down to like how functional. Can he be? Can he protect himself? Like there's things you can do schematically just to like, yeah, he's not going to scramble out of the pocket and make the crazy throws. Like you may have to play in rhythm, but they don't feel like he can do that this week. They're not going to put them onto the field, but I expect him to be back in the next couple of weeks here on Monday night. If he doesn't go, then it's either Tyson Bajant or Case Keenum going up against the Eagles coming off a performance where from the highs of 59 points to the lows of playing in that terrible weather against the Vikings and scoring six points and fumbling on the goal line and all that.

1:23:36Tom Pelissero:You weren't there, were you? I wasn't at that game, no. But it looked horrible.

1:23:40Bill Simmons:Yeah, I did not factor in with the bet. The under seemed like the craziest, easiest bet ever. It just didn't seem like anybody could throw the ball. So then, even when we did it, we talked about the game on Sunday night, me and Sal. But I always had that game on a smaller TV, so I wasn't hearing the announcers. And I wasn't really fully aware of how bad the weather was and how much it affected it. So we'll see. Because the Bears, to me, they're going to have Case Keenum this week, probably. But they have all these weapons. Loveland's done nothing. They have this really good run game. I'll be interested to see if their offense is still pretty good, even without Caleb, even for a week.

1:24:20Tom Pelissero:Well, and the whole Ben Johnson first start without a number one pick at quarterback thing, it's so overblown. That's ridiculous. It's not like anyone was like, well, Ben got Jared Goff. He's going to be great. It's like, no one thought Jared Goff was great when they played. They had to pay a first runner to get rid of him. They had to. It was literally the throw-in. It was a salary dump that required a first-round pick to take him in the Stafford trade. And then Caleb wasn't, you know, didn't play great his first year. There's a lot of stuff going on. Ben has healed those guys. Like, I don't know how much you're changing Case Keenum with all the football under his belt.

1:24:53Tom Pelissero:But, like, they'll have a plan. They'll be ready to go. It's a good matchup with Ben going up against Vic Fangio. with regard to Bryce, one of the things that I think is really interesting is if you really watch it, and I went back through the Panthers' first couple of games here, they're getting to the line of scrimmage really early and snapping the ball pretty early. And I don't see a ton of Bryce making checks and stuff, which tells me they know how good of a processor he is, and they also know he's not a big quarterback who, once the ball is snapped, is not going to have a great sight. So you're basically putting in positions where you're making the call and just going, this call is going to be good enough against a lot of different stuff.

1:25:30Tom Pelissero:Like use your process and ability walking to the line and getting there while everybody is still down. All right, now get the snap off. And it's worked like they've really stressed the tempo and operate quickly. And they've put a bunch of they put a basketball team around them. You know, it's a bunch of like physical athletes, T-Mac and and Lee Get, Coker. I know Coker and Lee Get did not practice today, which isn't a great sign. Coker is my guy. goes. Coker is, I mean, the guy was in a walking boot last Monday and played in the game, so it may be a maintenance thing. Holy Cross.

1:26:01Bill Simmons:Holy Cross people are very tough. Yeah. You know, since Coker came back last year, Bryce has been a different guy from, you know, he didn't have him for, I forget how many games it was, but it was at least nine to ten. But once Coker got going again, that kind of unleashed him because McMillan, you know, he's not like on the Jamar Chase level, but he's a difference maker. And I don't know. When I watch him, I just feel like guys are open and he's getting the ball to the right spot. But you're right. They play with, they play with a little oomph. And I'll be interested to see if they can do that in Cleveland.

1:26:30Bill Simmons:Cause I don't think that's a great spot for them.

1:26:32Tom Pelissero:Yeah. I mean, they still, they still use a ton of motion and stuff. It's not like they've like just totally dumbed down the offense or something, but they clearly are making the emphasis of like, we got an elite processor. Let's put them in positions where he can actually do what he's best at. You know, the contract negotiations didn't really go anywhere in the off season with the Panthers and Bryce. It was kind of like, all right, the market we're all anticipating because of Caleb, because of Jaden Daniels pending health. You know, those guys are going to get huge deals. So why would we take a deal where the market is now from Bryce's perspective?

1:27:02Tom Pelissero:The Panthers probably wanted, you know, a little more information. Okay, the arrow's pointing up, but like we got in the playoffs last year, we were still eight and nine, you know, it wasn't perfect. Well, if Bryce does this all year, it's going to be, you're going to be under a ton of pressure not to pay him whatever he wants. It's like a, you know, bet on yourself type of a situation. They weren't going to be in the neighborhood of what Bryce would have wanted. it could end up working out but Cleveland's defense will be harder like that first game against Jacksonville they were super passive and just like sitting back in zones last week looked a lot more like what we expect the Browns to be and I bet that they just you know pressure the

1:27:37Bill Simmons:crap out of Bryce this week that one of the many differences between NFL and NBA is like if this was NBA and Bryce was a free agent after the year this would just be a pretty massive story right If he could just jump. But in the NFL, if he's really good, they'll just franchise tag him for a year and figure it out. I don't think we'll ever see the movement like that. Do you like the franchise tag or no?

1:28:04Tom Pelissero:I don't think I'd say I like it or don't, but it's just a necessary evil. It prevents certain things. The players would argue it shouldn't exist, but it's existed for over 30 years now. But team control is a big thing. It's not quite like baseball, but it does give you, I mean, you got first round picks for seven years. It's not five, it's four years plus the option and two tags before the third tag is so astronomical because of how it's calculated that you probably can't keep the guy. I mean, you can keep, if you draft a 22 year old quarterback, you can keep him until he's damn near 30.

1:28:36Bill Simmons:Can you imagine in the NBA? Like if, if Detroit could do this with Jalen Duren, like, yeah, we couldn't agree. We're just going to franchise tag you. You're going to make the average salary of the top five centers or whatever it is. And the NBA, All those players would fucking hate that. They would go crazy.

1:28:51Tom Pelissero:The flip side of it, though, is that in the NBA, you've got like the max and the super max deals where it's like you can go up to a certain threshold and you also have like the mid-level exception stuff. None of that exists in the NFL, even like the veteran salary benefit deals. Every dollar you spend hits the cap eventually in the NFL. There's ways to like move it around and push the pain into the future, but like every dollar you spend hits. And so if you're a top quarterback, you wouldn't probably like to see like, all right, the maximum you can get is five years for 250 million. And everybody from Patrick Mahomes to Baker Mayfield to Bryce Young is going to be making the exact same amount of money.

1:29:27Tom Pelissero:Like you would have right now to making the same amount of money as Patrick Mahomes. And we'd all be sitting there going and they're not that far apart, by the way. They're like eight million dollars apart. But you'd be going like this seems wrong. At least that part of the economics hasn't changed yet. But who knows, man? There's a lot with the TV deals and the opt-out coming up in 2029 and the CBA up in 2031. The talks, which haven't started yet between the union and the league, there's going to be really interesting things about cap percentage and potentially changing some of the things economically about how it works.

1:30:00Tom Pelissero:I don't think any of those things are high priorities for players. But the NFL, definitely the owners want to change some things economically here. and we'll see how long it takes them to sort of work through all the ancillary issues that lead up to the big thing, the one thing that ultimately matters, which is the money.

1:30:16Bill Simmons:It almost feels like they need two different salary structures for quarterbacks and for teams, right? Because the top half of quarterbacks in the league are all basically NBA max players. And you kind of have to think of them that way and they're just operating in a different stratosphere than any other position. It's not even close.

1:30:36Tom Pelissero:Those things have been proposed and bandied about different things about quarterbacks kind of being set aside. You know, there's been a bunch of different ideas that have been floated. But again, if you're the union. Yeah, why are you agreeing to that? You represent all players. So like the rank and file would be like, yeah, limit the quarterback money. But the quarterbacks, the guys who have the power and the money don't want that. And the union's never going to want to limit wages. I mean, that's just kind of the nature of it. But again, like there's, there've been agents that have proposed cap percentage deals for quarterbacks, because if you look at, you know, even a deal done four years ago when the cap was like a hundred million dollars less now it's like, okay, that guy ranks eighth.

1:31:16Tom Pelissero:But at the time, like in terms of cap percentage, he ranks way lower. We got to redo this deal. And that's where you see things like Josh Allen's deal getting ripped up and then adding a couple of years and giving him a huge raise. It's just, all you're doing is bringing it back up to the top of the market. That's really changed in the last five to 10 years, which is when guys have undervalued contracts, the agents don't wait. You could have two, three, four years left and you're coming to them going, hey, we need to bump this up. Different teams have different policies.

1:31:46Bill Simmons:You can push the money years ahead, which you can't do in the NBA. The NBA, it's like, we've decided this and this is your contract until it's finished and that's how it's going to go.

1:31:55Tom Pelissero:You can reroute cap for a long time, which is why the Browns have paid all but like$800 ,000 of the$230 million in cash to Deshaun. And they still have, I don't even actually know the precise number because they have an insurance policy. But it's still like$80 million in cap that they got to eat over 2027 and 2028 when he's probably not even on the team.

1:32:18Bill Simmons:Tom Palacero, you can hear him on Ringer NFL show tomorrow. And then The Sweep, please sign up for this newsletter. It's really good. It comes out Saturday mornings. Good to see you as always.

1:32:28Tom Pelissero:You too, Bill. Thanks.

1:32:29Bill Simmons:Thanks. This episode is brought to you by Core Power Protein Shakes. You know how we always talk about the little things that separate great athletes? Post-workout recovery is a big factor. Core Power Protein Shakes help you keep going after your workout with high quality protein to build muscle and electrolytes to help hydrate. It's all you need for your recovery at one bottle. Available in 26 and 42 gram protein options to pick what works best for you. Visit corepower.com to learn more. This episode is brought to you by 7up. Okay, this one's a case for conspiracy bill. Let's bring them in. Ever notice lemon is everywhere from lemon recipes to lemon scented cleaning supplies?

1:33:05Bill Simmons:And when it comes to lemon lime sodas, why is lemon always first? There's a reason. A shadowy organization called the Eliminate has been padding the stats, keeping big lemon in the lead for decades. But let me tell you something. The sip is about to be flipped. 7up is fighting back, swapping lemon lime for their new lime lemon soda. Now, lime comes first. 7-Up. Flip the sip. Remember, today's Ringer 107 is brought to you by FanDuel. Make this your most rewarding season ever. Download the FanDuel app to check out all of our Ringer 107 picks. And boosted teasers. Boosted. Minus 110 juice. Go get them.

1:33:44Bill Simmons:Every single week this season. Alright, week 3 picks. We are both 5-5 in Ringer 107. As usual, while I'm complaining about some bad luck with some of those picks, including Lasseter dropping the Josh Allen interception. That one hurt my feelings. Week one, yeah. Baker Mayfield driving down to cover my tees against the Browns. Sorry about that. Sorry. Stopped by lightning. Game disappears for almost three hours. Comes back. Can't get it done. There's some... The week three trends... Last year, the big trend... Last week, the big trends were all four teams that lost by 20 plus points in week one.

1:34:23Bill Simmons:Everyone's like, take those teams in week two. They all won and covered in week two. Cleveland, Carolina, Denver and the Rams. Yes. Very good. This week, the week three trends, probably there's the most stuff that we have either going back to 2000 or 2010. For instance, teams that start 0-2 against the spread are 42-19-1 against the spread in week three against one-on-one teams since 2010. So if you had 0-2 team against a 1-1 team, almost a 70 % chance that 0-2 team is going to cover against spread. We have two candidates this week, Tennessee plus 2.5 and Atlanta tonight. 0-2 teams. No, no, no.

1:35:03The Falcons are playing. Wait a minute.

1:35:06Bill Simmons:Yeah, I had that right. Tonight? No, I'm saying two teams. Tennessee plus 2.5 and then the Falcons tonight start at 0-2 against spread. Sorry. And then week three underdogs, 0-2 teams that are underdogs are 30 and 12 against the spread, which is almost 72%. That includes the Chargers, Atlanta tonight, Tampa, and Miami. And then last but not least, this is a weird one. I never know what to make of these, but NFL teams that are one-on-one against the spread in week three are 14 and 24 if they are underdogs of plus 3.5 or higher. That would be Pittsburgh Jets in Arizona. And well, Washington definitely fits that as well.

1:35:45Washington covered in week one. And now there are seven and a half point dogs to Seattle. So we'll add them as well.

1:35:55Bill Simmons:My favorite week three trend is, has nothing to do with the spread records, but just the own too desperate team. Yes. I take it seriously. I think sports goes like this. And at some point when you're way, way down, you know, so I'm looking at the chargers, which that line has moved all the way to plus seven and a half on Buffalo. I'm not going to take the chargers. but I'm also a little scared of the bills because of the charges, but what's your favorite week three trend? What do you like the most just in general? Oh, the, the, the 0 and 2 teams, you know, look at the inflated spread that comes along with that.

1:36:34The, the first one that you read is right. Yeah.

1:36:37Bill Simmons:Okay. You seem enthused. I'm not playing it in, in, into any of those trends with my picks this week. So that's why I'm hesitating. I think, do you go first this week or do I? Because we each do three ringer 107 picks and a tease. You were generous. You let me go first in week one. Then you went first last week. And I immediately. What's your favorite game? I immediately piggybacked you. I absolutely love the Baltimore Ravens laying. In Brazil. I don't. You're going with the hockey right field. Oh my God. Well, yes. And that is part of the handicap for me. because if the field sucks, then that definitely favors the offense over the defense.

1:37:18And so the Ravens have the best offense in the NFL by a whole slew of measures. They're missing two receivers. But especially, Zay is still a possibility out there. They haven't completely eliminated him.

1:37:32Bill Simmons:It's always a good idea to have a guy with an injured hamstring on a hockey rink field in Brazil. Let's bring him out. That's not the basis for the play, though. They are especially dominant with the run. And I think that they're number one in the NFL run, block, win rate. They're number one in the NFL in success, like per EPA, per rush. Like, oh, you know, slice and dice it, however you want. I think that they are going to go out and get up with some kind of margin. And then Dallas won't be able to close it because the Ravens can run the ball the entirety of the second half. They can do what they didn't do against the Saints when they were up.

1:38:13When Derrick Henry had five runs in the second half. Yes, I felt like I was watching John Harbaugh all over again. Yeah, so I really love the Ravens getting up. Matabuke is back. That's huge for the inside of their defense. Dallas can't establish the run. Anyhow, Dallas is one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.

1:38:34Bill Simmons:I'm really regretting some of our Cowboys future stuff, or at least some of the stuff I had because it looks like their defense, they shifted some deck chairs in the Titanic, but I don't really feel like it's any different. And Washington was moving the ball just fine. They were all the way down to the one-yard line with, you know, five seconds left in the first half. Yeah, right. And then everything went to shit all at once. I just think that this Ravens offense in a get-right kind of moment here, I have no problem with the idea of them winning by margin. So I have the Ravens laying the three and a half.

1:39:11Bill Simmons:So I looked at it long and hard and it came down to, I just don't want to bet games in weird locations. I remember that Eagles-Packers game on like a Friday night in Rio or wherever the fuck that, Mexico. I don't even remember where it was. And guys were falling down and the vibe was weird. I'm just like, I'm out. Like, I don't think there's any way to know what's going to happen in these games. But if I did do it, I would have the Ravens. I think it's the right side. But my first one, I'm doing something I rarely do in Ringer 107. And just for the record, I picked the team I'm about to go against in week one and week two for Ringer 107.

1:39:48Oh.

1:39:49Bill Simmons:It's the New England Patriots. Wow. This is great. They are plus two and a half in Jacksonville. I think that line will move. I think that's going to move up. I think that would be three or three and a half by Sunday. in Florida, humid. I don't like that. Jags in Florida have been good, especially recently. Something like, they're like 8-1 or 9-0 in their last nine home games. Pats are banged up now. AJ's gone probably till November. I'm just, I assume we're not going to see him until around Halloween. They lost Nwenu, who was, by all accounts, probably their most reliable offensive lineman on a line that was pretty mediocre.

1:40:34Bill Simmons:they ended last week's game with a bunch of defensive back injuries that are all up in the air before we tape this but it didn't matter because they're playing Aaron Rodgers and Drake May is a mess he's a mess and I said this Sunday night and I don't feel like it's an overreaction I think he's going through something and they're going to have to outscore the Jaguars as good as the Pats D were in those first two games they played Drew Locke and they played Aaron Rodgers and this is now a real quarterback and real offense coming off a loss. I don't know what happened to them in the second half in Denver, but I think that Jags offense is really good.

1:41:11Bill Simmons:And I think it's going to, you're going to need 27 to 30 points, I think, in this game to win. And I don't think the Pats, without A.J. Brown, with the way Drake Mays playing, with some of the run block stuff, and just the offensive line stuff in general, and the McDaniels, whatever the offense they're running, which doesn't seem right. I couldn't believe this line stayed at two and a half. I think it should be three and a half or four. So I want to win Ringer 107. I hope I'm wrong. Jags minus two and a half is my first pick. You started this off by saying I'm playing the Patriots. And I was like, oh my God, you and I are going to be head to head for the first time in the Ringer 107 this season.

1:41:55You're taking the Jags too? I am all over the Jags. You just made the case. You should see my, here are the notes. injuries are all over the place for the Patriots. Uh, the Jaguars spot eight and one against the spread at home that the Jags have been good coming off of a loss as well. Liam Cohen, these weapons, we haven't really seen them exploit the middle of the field yet. We haven't seen Brenton stranger, Jacoby Myers really get unleashed. Well, that's where the softness to this Patriots defenses is going to be exposed. And there's no reason go ahead and take away Parker Washington. It's fine for the Jags and Cohen.

1:42:31at home.

1:42:32Bill Simmons:Yeah, they have all these different spots. Whatever the thing is, we call it. No, no. So I have to that's my second pick. It's actually I've circled it number one because the Ravens are here and then I had that. I was saving that Patriots. There's a way the Pats can win. Yeah. And I think it would take at least 27 to 30, but I think it's at least it's going to have to be explosive plays. It's going to have to be like a kick touchdown, a punt touchdown, some sort of return. It's going to have to be a Henderson 60-yard bust. It's going to have to be a Drake May scramble for 45. They're going to need, I think, at least three explosive plays.

1:43:10You're right. He has to stop turning the ball over. I mean, that's it. Jacksonville, for sure, is capable of creating turnovers. He's a mess.

1:43:16Bill Simmons:Orlowski did a footwork thing that I saw on social this week where he was just talking about his feet moving as he's going back and a little happy feet thing. He wasn't doing that last year. I don't know what's going on with him. Well, I do. since the playoff started, the Patriots have played a whole slew of good defenses. Yeah, I think they got... All the way up till now. They can't rattle them a little bit. For sure. It's a different kind of football altogether. I don't think this is a must win for the Pats. I think they could be one and two and they're fine. This is a game you were probably going to circle as a potential loss for them anyway.

1:43:53Bill Simmons:And I don't think they're going to have the team that they need until November. Yeah, that makes... They have Buffalo next week, so you don't really want to be one and three. They're going to be 4-4, you know, 4-5, 5-4, somewhere in there heading into November, December, because I think they can still make a run. Jacksonville has to have this game. Their next three are the Bengals, the Eagles, and the Texans. And that's a tough road right there. I'd be really surprised. We both have the Jags. I'd be really surprised if the Pats won this game. So, there you go. Okay, so I guess I'm up again. Yeah.

1:44:28Bill Simmons:This is like partly, it's almost like a comedy pick. I'm taking the Bucs again. They beat me two weeks in a row. I have a bunch of futures with them. I'm betting on the following things. They're 0-11 against the spread in the last 11 games. Yes. Todd Bowles will probably get fired after this game if they lose. Agreed. Baker Mayfield almost seems like he's drunk in these games. I know he's not drunk, but some of his decision-making and the carelessness with the ball is just unbelievable. Like he's going to play himself out of the league. So if there's no lightning in that game last week, they're one and one.

1:45:10Bill Simmons:I think they beat the Browns. And I think they're favored by one and a half. I think the fact that that lightning happened, swung this game by three points, hot in Florida in September, right? I still feel like we say that all the time. Florida and Carolina. This matters in September when it's human and weird. And Kyler Murray's coming back, which makes me like them more. I agree with this. They're like trying to figure out how to even use him in. I'm not impressed by the Vikings. The Vikings scored nine points last week. I don't think they can run the ball at all. And like if the Bucs can't win this game, they're going to go like four and 13.

1:45:45Bill Simmons:This is, out of all the teams that are playing, I would even include the Texans. This is the biggest game of the season for a team so far. Like this is like you lose this game. You might as well blow it up. Start either trading pieces or trading four pieces. And I think the plus one and a half, I just they have to win this game. Yeah, I agree with with what you're laying out here. And in fact, I have them as a teaser leg. So I'm teasing them from one and a half up through the seven and seven and a half, which I just need some some wiggle room with this version of Baker. There is definitely a case to be made for Tampa to be 2-0 as opposed to the 0-2 that they are.

1:46:25They didn't punt against the Cincinnati Bengals. Right. Four fumbles. They just gave them the ball a whole bunch of times.

1:46:32Bill Simmons:Also, they were in control of that Cleveland game. It was 16-9. Yeah. 16-6, too. Well, that Denzel Boston play happened. Right. I'm watching going, God damn it. Cleveland's hanging around. They're hanging around. Denzel Boston, five guys are there. He somehow busts through all of them, scores, 16-16. and now you got to sweat it out. But here's the other thing. From a Ponzi scheme standpoint, how many games in a row can you lose against the spread? Where are they going to go? 0-20? Like at some point, I might just pick them every week and ringer 107 until they cover. Are they going to go 0-15 against the spread?

1:47:08They're tied right now for the all-time against the spread worst streak. So if they lose to the spread again, and they will be the single title holder. They're tied. I heard this on the Action Network. Evan Abrams. Shout out Evan Abrams. They're tied with the Houston Oilers.

1:47:25Bill Simmons:Well, the Houston Oilers team. I think in the 70s. So the counter to this is the strategy I'm using here is the blackjack strategy of the dealer is killing me. I'm going to double my bets because my book's about to change. I don't know if that's going to happen here. But, man, if you can't beat Kyler Murray in the fucking Tampa Heat in an offense that can't run the ball and put it this way, Bowles gets fired if they lose this game, and maybe that's how this plays out. And I'll just bet I'll take them again next week, but I'm taking them. Bucs plus one and a half. Home dog. A lot of favorable stats with home dogs 0-2 and all that shit.

1:48:07Yeah. So what's your other leg of your tees? The other leg of my tease is the Tennessee Titans from two and a half up to eight and a half. New York Giants favored at home with Jameis Winston starting at quarterback. I'm not going to sit here and make a compelling case for the Titans. I'm not going into the X's and O's to explain to you why I think that the Titans are going to compete, be competitive in this game. I'm just going to say I don't have the Giants winning by more than a touchdown against anybody for the rest of this entire season. Maybe the Dolphins. I don't know. I don't even know if they're on the schedule.

1:48:46But this version of the Giants with Jameis at quarterback, I'm just not, you know, that feels like a good teaser leg to me.

1:48:55Bill Simmons:So you're taking them up to eight and a half. Yes. Tampa up to seven and a half. Titans up to eight and a half. I haven't had a chance to talk about the dart injury on this podcast yet.

1:49:10Bill Simmons:Jameis, I think that was the worst I've ever seen a quarterback play in a game that I can remember. I'm sure there's been worse. You watched Cooper Rush. Did you see any of Cooper Rush the two previous weeks? I saw Cooper Rush. I feel like Jameis was worse.

1:49:26Bill Simmons:I honestly was stunned. It was like he had no idea he was actually going to play in an NFL game this season. He seemed completely unprepared. He was not planning on playing. And the throws weren't near anybody. I've never seen anything like that. The dart thing was such a bummer. The Giants fans were so upset. I was so psyched for that game, too. And I think everybody was. This moron took the Giants plus seven and a half in Ringer 107. Yeah, I don't know what happens. I thought they were going to be within a touchdown. Yeah. That's why I went 3-2 last week. There were so many easy games I could have picked.

1:50:01So I'm obviously staying away from the Titans for all intents and purposes.

1:50:07Bill Simmons:Yeah, the proper reasons. I was thinking how they got Salah and they got Dayball. And it was like, and even I, like I test drove it a couple times in my head. Like, oh, Salah's great on the defense. Now they get Dayball on the offense. But they basically did the equivalent of those movies you'll see on like Amazon when it's like Nick Cage and John Travolta are in a movie again. You know, like these actors that just are not in successful projects anymore and they're thrown together and you're like, oh, it's a movie. This was the equivalent of that. Or it's like these two actors. Oh, Ben Kingsley's in this too.

1:50:46Bill Simmons:And it's just, it's, oh, and that's Aaron Eckhart. And it's just not going to happen. And I think that's the same with this. You take two name coaches that have really not been successful and you put them together and guess what? They're not successful. And the Cam Ward, I haven't seen any identifiable tape with him this year that says that he's going to be a productive QB. Yeah, I don't have a counterpoint. I just thought they looked lively against the Eagles, especially they were able to put some pressure up front. They got some pressure on Hurts and they can kind of run the ball a little bit, the Titans.

1:51:21Yeah. And, you know, that Giants defense, Burns is supposed to be out, I think. Just, you know, I'm just the idea.

1:51:28Bill Simmons:Well, their secondary is the worst. Probably it's in the running for worst. Okay. So that's your tease. I'll do my tease then. And I really, I changed this a hundred times. The only thing I knew was that Seahawks-Washington was going to be one of my legs. Yeah. Six-point tease. On Fandle, we have a deal every week. $50 bet. You get minus 110 juice. we've done okay on the teases. I almost went two now, except for the bigger thing, but I just feel like Seahawks, it's a free leg. Tease the Seahawks down to one and a half. I think they go on a bender this year. I'm a full believer. All the stuff I laid out might've been one of the few things I was right about before the season, but that nobody believes in us with them.

1:52:17Bill Simmons:I think they have a little edge to them. They're not even completely healthy yet. I don't really see a difference with Locke and Darnold from how it's affected them. They seem fine with Locke. I thought he was good last week. And then your team, Mariota, last 13 starts, which were basically in 22 and 25. He's 3-10. And him against that Seattle defense,

1:52:45Bill Simmons:you could talk me into some alternate, like Seattle minus 19.5, like some of those bets too, some blowout bets. but this just, I can't imagine Mariota is going to beat the Seahawks. So I'm putting him in a tease. Washington fits a bunch of those trends in terms of O and two teams. Now Washington is one and one against the spread. So they're not, you know, the, the red lights flashing and the sirens blaring in terms of that, that trend angle. But they are supposed to cover this according to what history has told us, but you can't go against Seattle. They're 10 and one against the spread on the road under Mike McDonald.

1:53:28They have nine straight, straight up wins in the Eastern time zone to Seattle. They are so well-prepared, so well-coached. And the issue is the Seattle defense against Mariota. That's one significant formidable issue. The other issue is the Washington defense against JSN. and that's the only weapon that Seattle needs. It's a single weapon. You can't take them away. We watched Seattle twice. Their opponents try and take J.S. in the way. He's untake-away-able. So this Washington defense is going to do it? I don't think so.

1:54:09Bill Simmons:They're just too good. They're not going to lose games like this early in the season. Yep. And I thought what I saw from Washington, plus you lost Cosme. Brutal. But from what I saw from Washington, like there was a little something with Daniels, but it was all built around all the skills Daniels have. And I just don't think Mariota has the same skills. He does not. You are correct. So I'm putting the Seahawks down to minus one and a half. And man, I test drove a bunch of different ones for the other leg. Including I was looking at the Broncos plus eight and a half in that Rams game. Seemed enticing.

1:54:45Bill Simmons:I looked at the Saints, the Raiders, the Raiders going all the way up to plus nine. That caught my interest. I'm going with an under for the first time. Oh, okay. You're doing a total. I'm doing a total. Good for you. Bengals Steelers under 48 and a half. Okay. I was trying to think in my head how this game got to 49 points and what would need to happen. And it's basically defensive touchdowns and special team stuff. Agreed. The Steelers offense, they had 23 points in the first two games. their quarterbacks of fossil they can't run the ball at all they have no run game whatsoever did you see the video of Lawrence just punking the Houston offensive line for like four minutes they mic'd him up he's talking shit to them for four solid minutes about how he's whipping their ass they're scared of him I'm coming again it is unbelievable I thought they have a real identity with their front seven.

1:55:49Bill Simmons:I'm not sure about their secondary yet. Yeah. Listen, I was down on them before the season, but they can block better than I thought and their front seven's better than I thought. It's legit. And they'll do at least as well as the Patriots did last week. So you have that. And then on the other side, that Steelers defense was really good against the Pats. I was really, I thought they did a bunch of good stuff. And the way Houston was hitting Burrow last week, they weren't really moving the ball. They basically got a couple of long plays and they have really good receivers. They only gave up 13 points on offense.

1:56:20I mean, on defense to the Patriots offense.

1:56:23Bill Simmons:So 49 points is either that's 30-20 beats me. 27-23 beats me. 35-14 beats me. I don't see it. I don't see how they get there. Yeah, I bet the under in this game just on the number. It's an appropriate under game. And it just boils down to the complete ineptitude. I can't believe you, you, I'm glad that there isn't a camera in my living room capturing what I say to DK Metcalf because I have DK Metcalf on my fantasy team. He was awful. I want him to go to Antarctica and find that city under Antarctica. Is he going to be the guest on eat a fat dick? Oh, he, no, no. I want something worse for him than that.

1:57:10He's not even loud on the podcast. The bravado matched with the ineptitude is just, that's what I have the least amount of patience for.

1:57:20Bill Simmons:He's like the Seattle Mariners, the receivers. And, you know, Aaron, my best friend on the team is DK Metcalf. Well, that certainly makes a lot of sense. Two pieces of, you know, two guys not capable of advancing the football down the field. Pittsburgh's offense, 31st in EPA through two games. Cincinnati was 21st. Pittsburgh's defense was second in EPA since he's fourth. It's a great underplay. Good luck getting a 50. What's your last pick? I have a very quick question for you. Why didn't you take San Francisco from 8.5 down to 2.5 against Arizona? Something scares me about that game. Okay, that's all.

1:57:53That's it.

1:57:54Bill Simmons:I don't think Arizona is as bad as they looked last week. I thought Seattle's defense is so fucking good. They just completely undressed them and clipped their wings and got in their heads. And I thought Arizona wilted. But I don't... San Francisco's lost a lot of receivers. They've looked really good the first two weeks. There's a lot of purdy buzz. Yep. And it just felt like jumping on one bandwagon and getting off another. I don't know. I just didn't like it. No problem. No problem. Seemed too easy. Just wanted to ask it. Cause I might end up playing San Francisco laying the eight and a half.

1:58:26Bill Simmons:I would rather do it that way and, and figure it out that way. All right. What's your last pick? I I'm torn because I have Seattle minus seven written down here and it was, it opened minus six. I bet it Sunday night as fast as I could with, you know, an amount of money that I'm uncomfortable with. It's Seattle seven and a half. I know. That's why I'm describing what happened. It was seven this morning as I was making my notes and everything. It's up to seven and a half because nobody in America is taking Washington. Like there are not going to be. They have to. I mean, if you are teasing them, all kinds of stuff.

1:58:59Right. It has to get to eight and a half before I would consider taking Washington. Right. So I'm going back to the well with something. This is a place where you're, you, I'm going against every single trend that's ever been trended in week three. And I'm taking the chiefs to win by margin against the Miami dolphins. I have to keep betting against the, I like it every week that the dolphins are less than two touchdowns. I have to take it. It's just a mandatory play for me. There's no evidence whatsoever. that's a defense capable of stopping anybody and they have no interest in it. I mean, they were kind of feisty in the first half against the Niners.

1:59:40Then the Niners came out and scored on their first two drives the second half and the football game was over. They should have mercy ruled the fourth quarter so that nobody got hurt on either team, honestly. There's just no point. It's because college football, right?

1:59:53Bill Simmons:You're just basically betting a big college football spread knowing that the talent's not fair. So it's 10 and a half, Kansas City minus 10 and a half. sure, great, done. I mean, there's just no evidence of competent football coming out of that Miami team. I looked at it for a while. It scared me that KC's coming off a fun win. It scared me that they're in an easy stretch right now or it's at Miami at Las Vegas bye week. Yep. And you start like, oh, we're going to go four now. And then the weather piece scared me and I couldn't get there with the double digits. because I don't get it. Their defense certainly was not great in Week 2, Casey.

2:00:35And Mahomes as a double-digit favorite is terrible. Mahomes on the road as a double-digit favorite is terrible. Miami fits every single trend in terms of a team coming in 0-2 against the spread. I think it's a smart pick. Yeah, but I don't care. I mean, it's not a 100 % trend, so I'll take the Chiefs and lay the points. I don't care.

2:00:54Bill Simmons:For my last pick, I really want to do Browns plus 2.5 against the Panthers, and was just thinking about how funny it would be to say one last chance to bet on Deshaun Watson against Deshaun Watson, now betting on him. On him. I do think they can win this game, though, but I think it's just a stay away. And it's Browns plus two and a half, and if it was three, I might be a little more interested. Good call. I looked long and hard at Raiders plus three over the Saints because the Saints were down 21-0 in week one, 14-3 in week two. They're down seven and they're down eight both fourth quarters and they can't run the ball.

2:01:34Bill Simmons:And I think the Raiders are well coached and they can block. And I don't mind them, but I just couldn't get there. That seems like a last minute of the game game. So I'm going with another team that has burned me two weeks in a row. The Houston Texans. Yeah. I almost did it. They're playing in Indianapolis. The line has dropped. The line is down minus one and a half. They're probably the most desperate team of week three other than Tampa, who I also have. But two things. They actually really shut down Cincy and then just gave up a couple bigger plays because they have Jamar Chase and they have Tee Higgins.

2:02:20Bill Simmons:And he doesn't have anybody like that. Pierce is out for the year or most of the year. They basically have downs. They don't have Pittman anymore. Tyler Warren, cover him and you're good. And I don't, and Daniel Jones can't move. And this just feels like we're giving up 112 total yards this week, that kind of game.

2:02:44Bill Simmons:Offensively, Indy's defense is terrible. They're going to be able to run the ball finally. After playing who they played last week, I think they'll have a little more success. And I don't know, CJ wasn't bad last week. I thought he had some really good throws. I think they can score. But I think they can shut down the Colts more importantly. I don't know. How are the Colts going to move the ball without Pierce? Who are you afraid of on that offense other than Taylor? Just shut down Taylor. You win the game. Yeah. I don't know. They did a great job getting Taylor. I get it. I don't love the pick.

2:03:17They ran the ball really well. Yeah. I don't love it, but I like it. I decided to stay away from Houston this week. I went with them. I gave them out as my wise wager two consecutive weeks on the show. Guess what my record is with wise wagers. I mean, I just believe in Houston. I think ultimately they are going to be good.

2:03:31Bill Simmons:That's the thing. am I going to get scared off because of how week one went when they dropped the game winning interception and then last week which was just a stupid clusterfuck one of those dumb NFL games that happen all the time and they don't have Nico Collins right and am I going to panic or am I going to really believe this is an 0-3 football team I don't know we'll see if we'll see if Callie or say Gordon had had some good notes in her notebook let's see what her notes are yeah Keyshawn Booty alright House here's what we have Ringer 107 we're both five and five hoping for a big week here you have ravens minus three and a half in brazil you have jaguars minus two and a half at home against the patriots and you have the chiefs minus 11 and a half 10 and a half 10 and a half but 11 and a half 10 11 and a half is fine 12 and a half you pick them 13 and a half i would it's 10 and a half under the premise that miami just keep betting against them until these lines go into the 20s and your tease is going to be titans up to eight and a half against the Giants and James Winston.

2:04:33Bill Simmons:And the Bucs up to seven and a half at home trying to win their first game of the season against Minnesota. I have, as my tease, Seattle down to minus one and a half and the under in the Cincy-Pittsburgh game, 48 and a half under. That's a good one. 49 beats me. I have the Jags minus two and a half against my beloved Patriots. Have to do it. In Ring 107, you can't have favorite teams. You're just trying to make the best picks. I do not like the spots for the Patriots this week. Bucs plus one and a half against Minnesota. And then last but not least, the Texans minus one and a half. So basically, I'm applying the symbolic strategy.

2:05:16Bill Simmons:I'm still backing these Bucs-Texans teams. And if it fails me, so be it. So be it. We'll see. That's right. Happy gambling in week three, House. Best of luck to both of us. Today's Ringer 107 was brought to you by FanDuel Download the app now to find all of our 107 picks Make this your most rewarding season ever FanDuel, play your game Odd subject to change Alright, that's it for the podcast Thanks to House and Pellicero Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo and Chris as well Don't forget, new rewatchables coming on Monday We are doing 13, going on 30 I'm going to be back on this podcast Sunday night with Cousin Sal, who's fighting through it Still fighting through those kidney stones.

2:05:58Bill Simmons:We'll see if he can make it to Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend. See you Sunday night.

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