The Colbert-CBS Drama and NFL Leap Team Possibilities With Matt Belloni and Nate Tice

23:25Bill Simmons:I don't think he cared about having a giant audience for that show I think he wanted I think they gave him a lot of money to do whatever the hell he wanted and he wanted to make a very meta show that people would love a small group of people would really really love and it might get nominated I guess it didn't get nominated for awards but there was only three categories he got nominated I believe in some small category but it was renewed they ordered two seasons so we'll see if they actually air the second one this episode is brought to you by PNC Bank In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other.

23:57Bill Simmons:Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady calculated money moves and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 as a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Incorporated. PNC Bank, National Association member, FDIC. This episode is brought to you by PayPal. All right, parents, PayPal's on your team this back to school.

24:37Bill Simmons:I've been there myself. You're paying for sports gear, backpacks, sneakers, laptops. You've likely got multiple carts, your favorite online stores. Well, that's when PayPal comes in with the assist. Pay in 4. No interest, no fees. Truly game-changing. Subject to approval. Learn more at paypal.com slash payin4. Paypal Inc. NMLS 910457. You mentioned Gutfield before. If you look at the last 10 years of talk shows, whether they're weekly or daily that have launched, and I would like to include myself that lasted less than 20 episodes, uh none of them worked not one of them i don't think any of them made it and and i think the number is actually way way bigger than you think these shows are not uh are not hitting but you know at a moment sam b did okay for a while it got canceled it did yeah i guess she let that one maybe lasted two years but um but what's interesting is we've had a million successful podcasts, right?

25:41Bill Simmons:And we've had podcasts that are weekly, like even Polar's podcast recently, but then we'll have the ones that are three, four, five times a week. Polar's a perfect example. Polar would have had a talk show. 20 years ago. She would have been on NBC 1230. Absolutely. Amy Polar would have been a hot commodity and she would have gotten a show somewhere, daytime or evening, whatever she wanted. Conan is a great test case of the new normal here because he made it. He had the 1230 show. They moved into 1130. It didn't work under those terms of the time that he was there. They'd kill for those numbers now.

26:18Then he went to TBS and in cable, it kind of worked for a little while because there was still an audience there. Then didn't make sense in cable, went to do his own podcast, and he's never been more popular. He got demoted to podcast territory, quote unquote. And it made him even more popular to the point where Turner gave him a travelogue show, which got nominated for Emmys, and he hosted the freaking Oscars. And he got a Kennedy Senator Award. You know, like, Conan's never been cooler, and he's arguably been, like, put into the wilderness.

26:54Bill Simmons:It's crazy. I mean, the only shows that are the outliers are Saturday Night Live, Marr, and Oliver. Like, and then... Kimmel's model, I still think Kimmel and Fallon are really, really, really relevant on YouTube. I mean, they have massive, massive channels. If something happens on those shows, everyone's going to see it. And they were able to crack the code on that. But that doesn't explain why those shows have to be on at 1135 at night every night. And that's where it gets dicey. Is Olivia Rodrigo and, you know, name your big star, Tom Cruise. Is Tom Cruise going on Fallon if it's just a digital show?

27:36Yeah, probably not. I don't know. Because Tom Cruise's people are sophisticated. They know the currency of him going on Fallon is not the 1130 audience. It's whatever he does and says travels the universe online. But there is a kind of imprimatur of quality and prestige that The Tonight Show has with a certain audience. And when you're scrolling through YouTube, it's not just Jimmy Kimmel or Jimmy Fallon doing a stunt with a celebrity. You can get that on Hot Ones. You can get it on Chicken Shop Date. You can get it on a million Marin. You can get on Bill Simmons. But there's something about The Tonight Show that is a differentiator.

28:18I don't know how long that branding matters, especially to young people, but it still does kind of matter that it's a TV show.

28:26Bill Simmons:The Tonight Show would be the last one left. So you have The Tonight Show in your last man standing. Yeah, and I don't even know if it'll be Fallon necessarily. I just think that show never goes away. Someone will get that show and it will outlive Fallon. I think the Tonight Show and Saturday Night Live will never... When we're live, those shows will always exist. Those will be the two. Kimmel's show, as soon as he's done doing it, that show will be done. Nobody's replacing that. CBS has already punted it. Yeah, but I think the Tonight Show is enough of an institution. I don't know... Let's say you're running NBC.

29:00Bill Simmons:do you want to be the person that got rid of saturn live in the tonight show you're not nobody's doing that i agree with you snl is a different thing because they can significantly cut the budget of that show when once lauren is gone and it's still snl it may not be as good they could also make more shows if they're in 20 a year i know they sit out the summer when 900 things are happening like i can't believe they do that it's it's it's partly because of the way the show is made it's so difficult to make it the way they make. It's an opportunity for somebody to compete with them directly in a real way.

29:37They could do a summer stunt SNL for four weeks in July and sell ads into it and capture all the news and people would watch. But Lauren doesn't want to do that. No, maybe the Lord's on Paul McCartney's yacht for most of the summer.

29:51Bill Simmons:Yeah, maybe the next person would. All right. So who do you think is next? Seth obviously has a target. I don't know. I hate speculating on what shows are going to go. You know all these guys. No, no. It's not even... Yeah, I do know. But it's not even that. You could just see where it's heading. I think what was interesting about this Colbert thing, beyond all the stuff we already talked about, is there's real conspiracy angles with this, with this Paramount being settled. Colbert was killing Trump in the settlement this week. Two days later, the whole thing happens. and they executed it pretty fastidiously.

30:31Yes. So where do you fall on the conspiracy scale? Do you think this is 10 % politics, 90 % politics?

30:42Bill Simmons:I think the show lost money. And I think they, whatever this, this is my take. I don't have full inside information. This is just me reading the tea leaves and being a smart person. I think I'm a smart person I think this merger is going through the new guy doesn't want to take over CBS Paramount and the first thing you do is get rid of Colbert but I also think the merger wasn't going through unless they start kowtowing to the president with stuff like this so you think it was a quid pro quo we will not approve your merger unless you fire Stephen Colbert I don't think it was that I think it was a concern that this would be the type of...

31:24Bill Simmons:I mean, as we're recording this today, he just said how he wants Washington to become the Redskins again, or he's not going to improve the new RFK stadium. I think this is a piece of a bigger chess move where it's not just this. I'm genuinely worried about Stewart's show and The Daily Show and whether that's going to be next. Do you think I think that there is some kind of macro agreement between Paramount, the new owners, David Ellison and crew and the Trump administration to wipe the slate clean of media that Trump does not like. Does Bill think that? I don't know. Does conspiracy Bill think that?

32:06Bill Simmons:A hundred percent. Listen, it's impossible to know. Trump could announce tomorrow that this was all his plan. And I don't think I would believe him if he said it. So we'll know if The Daily Show is canceled on Monday. We'll know exactly what's going on. Daily Show, by the way, also not a profit center. But we do. But The Daily Show is on Comedy Central. There has to be a certain amount of original programming on these cable networks to justify their carriage fees. So the economics are a little different there. It's also a lot less expensive to produce The Daily Show than it is to do a show like Late Show.

32:44But if they just cut bait on Jon Stewart and the full Daily Show, then we know that this is pressure.

32:50Bill Simmons:Well, then it's not even worth discussing. I think the irony of this is The Daily Show and that Jon Stewart move was not even just a home run for them. It was a grand slam. It completely reinvigorated the show. It reinvigorated him. It's been awesome content. And they've been bragging about it. That's the thing. They put out a press release last week about how Stewart's ratings are up. You don't do that if you're planning to cancel the show. Yeah, but that's the thing. There's so much money at stake and so much real estate with whatever this merger is that if this is the casualty, it's like, oh, just get rid of those two shows.

33:29Bill Simmons:You know how these freaking super crazy rich people, they're not going to care. These two money-losing shows that only cause us headaches. Yeah. Like, I don't want to deal with this show. I don't want this to be my problem when it comes in. I thought it was interesting that you reported on this about how, what's his name? George Cheeks? George Cheeks is the head of CBS. They have multiple CEOs, right? Yes. They have three CEOs running Paramount, but Cheeks is in charge of CBS. And Chris McCarthy is the one in charge of Comedy Central, who is very instrumental in bringing Stewart back. Yes. And we also don't know which one of these CEOs, who has the most juice?

34:05Bill Simmons:Do they have equal juice? No, we do know that Chris McCarthy is expected to leave the company and George Cheeks is expected to stay. So my theory that I have voiced on the town is that I think George Cheeks is signaling to the new ownership with this cancellation that he can make the tough, unemotional decisions on money-losing sacred cows like Stephen Colbert. And if it happens to please the president at a time when Skydance could really use the president to be happy with them, then that's a added bonus. So I would say I'm less conspiratorial than maybe Conspiracy Bill is. But I do acknowledge the cloud of politics that is hovering over all of this.

34:53I just think that CBS has been looking at this a long time. They know that this is not getting better. It's not like they take a little pay cut here, survive for a year or two, and then they come back when the ad market comes back. The ad market is not coming back in linear television. And if you're looking at this unemotionally, shows that are not making money should not be on the air. And we're going to see, I think, with the new Skydance regime at Paramount, a significant cut in the original programming on CBS and all the channels. We're going to see primetime get gutted. We're going to see, you know, morning and afternoon shows.

35:32Did the primetime already get gutted? It's been gutted, but CBS has been one of the few that is hanging on to scripted programming during primetime. If you look at CBS, they have less of the reality and news programming during primetime than NBC and ABC do. And they've been justifying that because they say their audience is older. They're still watching TV. They still have these hits and they can sell those shows to streaming services later, either their own or another one, or they sell them over to syndication overseas or wherever. I just think that that money is coming down, down. So maybe CBS stops programming Friday nights.

36:11Maybe they in their new deal. What's going to go on there?

36:14Bill Simmons:By the way, they can do what ABC does and just run a three hour Bachelor in Paradise episode, which is what they did on Tuesday night. Or the game show. Bachelor in Paradise. Yeah, or they have Kimmel do two hours of Celebrity Millionaire on ABC. Well, that's a good show. I support Celebrity Millionaire. They do Celebrity Wheel of Fortune. They have Elizabeth Banks doing Press Your Luck during prime time. They have Steve Harvey doing a judge show. There's a judge show starring Steve Harvey on ABC in prime time. It's kind of amazing. And they do that because it's cheap. And the economics don't justify the amount of money they spend on scripted.

36:52CBS is making a couple of comedies this year. They're making a comedy called DMV and the economics on that show, they're shooting it in Montreal. They're paying people nothing. It's like a fraction of what a half hour comedy used to cost on CBS. They're just cutting, cutting, cutting and not doing originals on broadcast because these are like newspapers and magazines now. They are dying businesses. And the only way to make money on them is to suck them dry. Just cut all the costs and take the revenue as long as you can.

37:25Bill Simmons:Well, we said in the earlier part of the 2020s, these networks were just going to become sports, late night, and morning programming. News. Yeah. And now the late night piece is going away. There's one part I don't understand with the Colbert piece. Conspiracy Bill doesn't understand it and bill doesn't understand either timing why say until may okay so i don't understand that part like why not just say after september sweeps or november sweeps we're done we're going to december there's no more colbert show why go all the way through may well first of all his deal goes all the way through may so they're paying him regardless and secondly the way the producer deals on colbert work is the producers on the show are signed from september through august That's actually why this was coming up now.

38:18People are like, why now? You know, if this wasn't related to the merger, then just, you know, wait till the deal closes and then fire him then. The reason they had to do it now, according to sources, is they have these deals with producers that go from September through August. And they were going to have to go to these producers and say, honestly, your deal's only going to go through May next year, not August. so what is what is Joe Blow producer gonna think when he hears that oh the show is being canceled secondly they had a negotiation coming up your guy baby doll he would have started to make noises about a new deal right around now if they wanted to keep Colbert for a new deal and my understanding is that there was some questions like oh do we want to get into it with them do we want to do this and it sort of forced the issue now Colbert is the one that wanted to announce it Now, CBS was not positioning this to be announced right now.

39:15I think they knew what the optics would be on this. But Colbert was like, if the show's ending, I need to let my people know right away. First of all, they need to look for other jobs. Many of these people have been here for a decade or two. That's not easy to get another job in this world that you need to give them time. And secondly, it's going to leak. These things never hold. So if it's going to leak, he want they told him Wednesday night. He said, I'm telling my people on Thursday before the show, put out whatever press release you want, and then it'll air on the show Thursday night and done.

39:46And he did. And I think the fact that he's got 10 months in the chair to do whatever he wants is going to be pretty interesting.

39:54Bill Simmons:So I just want to say I deliberately did not talk to Babydoll about any of this because I didn't want to be - Well, yeah, he might not be home either, but I haven't talked to him about any of this. we're taping this on a Sunday. And I think it's really important when we're taping this on a Sunday because as far as I know, Jon Stewart has a show on Monday. And that is going to be the most fascinating show that we've had since the Letterman extortion, whatever that episode was, which we didn't know was coming. First of all, Jon Stewart is already rich. Yes. And he's already done a million kajillion things and he could give two shits.

40:39Bill Simmons:Yes. Right. For him, it's about his reputation. That's it. He doesn't, he, he's going to stand up for his dude and, and this is it. This is, in my opinion, one of the most important shows he's ever done. There's no way he's not going to talk about it. Well, the question is, does he quit on the air? I think it's in play. I think it's actually like a must watch show like that. it comes on at 8 o 'clock here. I'm definitely watching that live. 100%. So here's a good question. If Stewart just dive bombs the entire company, quits on the air, drops some F-bombs, names names, the whole thing, do they air it?

41:20Because he tapes.

41:23Bill Simmons:I don't think he'll do that because he's got a whole staff working for him. Yeah, true. But I also think he's going to have to stand up and I think everybody would have his back about, you know, how he's going to feel about this. But yeah, if they cancel the show, I think he'll be fine. I don't think it'll be fine for a lot of people that work for it. I think he'll feel bad about that. But this is the whole point of the show is he's going to, he has to stand up to this. This is 25 years of him on Comedy Central, basically. Like, you know, I just don't, he's not sitting this one out. Yeah. And does this issue metastasize to a larger Paramount question?

42:04They're negotiating right now to bring back the South Park guys and South Park. You know, they've had this is South Park's dispute is over money. They have been fighting with the new regime because the Skydance people have to approve the Paramount deal. And my understanding is that they are working towards a settlement. But do those guys go nuclear on them? I don't think they will because they like making the show. And literally, they're going to make billions of dollars in their next deal. But others could feel differently. There's a whole...

42:35Bill Simmons:But I disagree, though, because I think they're in the same spot as Jon Stewart. Those guys have made a fucking crazy amount of money already. And the whole point of that show is they stand up to shit like this. That's true. They could still do it and not quit. I'm saying, do they quit? I don't think the South Park guys quit. or just do it for somebody else. Well, they can't do South Park for anyone else. No, but they could just create a different show. Yeah, they could do that. They got a Kendrick movie coming out next year. They could do other things, but they have shown over almost 30 years that they really like doing South Park.

43:07True. And I think that they will fuck around with the owners, but I don't think they will quit.

43:15Bill Simmons:Well, this is unprecedented territory. It really is. Where we have a show get canceled and people's first reaction is, did the president make this happen? I know, it's so crazy. It is. Guess who owns the network that has the number one show in late night? Fox, Rupert Murdoch, who Trump sued on Friday. Because Murdoch owns the Wall Street Journal and they did the Jeffrey Epstein, Donald Trump story. And Murdoch has been an ally of sorts. He gets into his spats with Trump every once in a while. but Fox is owned by the Murdochs and now they're in litigation with the president. It's so crazy. I think this has a chance to be the weirdest Hollywood year ever.

44:01Oh, really?

44:02Bill Simmons:We have five and a half months left and I just feel like we're headed toward, like this was the first salvo. I just feel like there's more coming movies with in some ways the movie business is back, right? Maybe a little bit, sure. I think the IMAX and, you know, there's been some positive momentum. And then on the other hand, I don't know what's going to happen with the award season. The TV season, who the fuck knows, are there even going to be a network show that anyone cares about anymore? Certainly not Suits LA. That's not happening. Will the Office spinoff work? The paper? Right. And then also - Although that's going to Peacock.

44:44Bill Simmons:But all these other non-Netflix streamers are now starting to really cut back on the content they're making. And this is going to be the first time I think people are going to feel a real void. Like just not, it's not going to be this t-shirt cannon shooting out shows every, now it's going to be, you have these, like I just watched the Netflix, the Missing Lady show on the yacht, whatever that was. The Missing Lady of the Week on Netflix? Missing Lady on the Yacht, whatever that one was called. I watched all three episodes. Did you watch Poop Cruise? That's just going to be TV now. Of course I watched Poop Cruise.

45:16Bill Simmons:Who are you talking to? It was number one on one of the charts one week. Yeah, I mean, the number one franchise on Netflix right now is called Trainwreck. And it's an unscripted documentary franchise about things that happened in the 2000s and 2010s that made cable news headlines, but Gen Z didn't know about and millennials kind of forgot about. That's basically the franchise. It's like, wait, what's this Bubble Boy? And now my daughter's watching that going, Dad, what's up with Bubble Boy? Right, exactly. The fall of Brett Favre. What happened there? Right. Well, and then you have like shows like Amazon, Summer I Turn Pretty, season three.

45:55Bill Simmons:My daughter is like approaching it like it's a Super Bowl. I know. Yeah. It's just TVs. I think what's really changed the most is that the monoculture of a TV show, I think, is just, I don't even know like what my daughter's generation shows that they're going to share other than Stranger Things. Wednesday. Yeah, but it's like less than 10. I know. And Stranger Things, check me on the number, but I believe when it ends at the end of this year, Stranger Things will have made and aired like 60-something episodes over 10 years. Yeah. It just takes so long to make these shows now that there's no such thing as like, oh, it's September, we're back in school, let's check out the new season of The Cosby Show.

46:41Like, there's 22 of these coming. Right. It's just not the same anymore.

46:47Bill Simmons:I was on a text thread with some friends who were my age. There was this thing that was online. It was the entire Nielsen ratings of the 76-77 TV season. It was like 100 shows. And it was like one to 100. It was like Laverne and Shirley Happy Days. And we're on the thread and I was like, I don't understand how I watched 70 of these 100 shows as they were happening. I'm just going down the line. I definitely watched that. I watched that when I was an only child. I guess I had a little and you were clearly watching sports and movies too yeah but and maybe I didn't watch all of them but I felt like I did and anecdotally I felt like I knew at least what was going on a little bit and now it's like what are their shows like that now?

47:26Bill Simmons:they're just well if you look at the number the top 100 shows from last year like 90 of them are football games I know well what was interesting about 76, 77 what number do you think Monday Night Football was in the ratings that year? oh fascinating clearly not top 20 because you would have mentioned it It was 20th. It was 20th. Okay. So it was still big. Still big, but not like Happy Day is big. That's true. And still they didn't figure out that if they did that three nights a week, people would also watch three nights a week of football. Well, now it's going to be like five or six. Yeah. Well, that's the only thing that in the end, it's just going to be sports that survives.

48:05Yeah. I mean, and that sports is now so expensive that these companies can't really afford much else. CBS is a perfect example. Like they are looking at this renegotiation that the NFL can do after they change control because they have a right to renegotiate. Oh, they're doing it too. They're going to, of course, do it. They're going to extract, extract, extract. That's why I think it wouldn't be surprising to me if the NFL like got a night of television on CBS or an hour twice a week to do highlights during the season or, you know, some propaganda show about how great the NFL is in your community.

48:39Like something, they'll get something out of CBS and they'll be able to take some games away probably to sell them to Netflix.

48:45Bill Simmons:Well, the prices of, like, when ESPN sold off some of their college football playoff games, I couldn't believe that. I mean, we're about to find out what happens with UFC, and I think Netflix is going to get the UFC numbered pay-per-views. Well, Dana White said this past week that he's looking forward to being in business with a global platform. Yeah. So, what does that do? So, it's two deals. It's the numbered pay-per-views, and then it's kind of the rest of it. And, you know, if it's going to Amazon or Netflix or whoever, it's going to be the numbered ones. Yeah. I'm guessing it doesn't mean Apple, even though they technically are a global platform.

49:22But I'm betting it's Amazon or Netflix. It's got to be one of those.

49:26Bill Simmons:Apple's back. Oh, you think so? F1. They're rejuvenating. They're going to make more movies now. I liked it. They're back, baby. But it doesn't bother you that that movie is probably not going to be profitable in theaters. Yeah, but that goes back to our accounting thing that we talked about before. I know. I know. It could be. They'll probably say it was super profitable. And the answer is probably in the middle. They will say it has tremendous value on the service. And great. We'll see if it pops up on the Nielsen chart. I bet it will because it's got a lot of attention. You know, they said that about Killers of the Flower Moon, which definitely lost money in theaters.

50:00But they got a ton of Oscar nominations. Tim Cook got to tweet about Leo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese. And it was a sort of brand halo for Apple. And if that's why they're in the entertainment business, then God bless them. Because so far, at least, it's certainly not to make money.

50:16Bill Simmons:Well, that is true. I will say, and I've been critical about some of the Apple shows for the last couple of years, but I do feel like I have a better sense of what an Apple show is now, even than when we talked about it on your pod six months ago. There is some sort of a blueprint now with the one big star, and there's some sort of angle. They are the Starfucker Network. Somebody in the picture. Yeah, it's the Starfucker Network. It's like if Tim Cook doesn't know who the person is, they can't do a show. Right. Like if they can put Jon Hamm with like kind of a torn suit on and like a fancy house behind them, they don't even need to know what the show's about.

50:51Yes. And they had hits this past year, at least a couple. Severance was a big hit for them. Like it was on the charts, which the Apple shows never are except for Ted Lasso.

51:01Bill Simmons:I can only tell you, I look at everything selfishly from a ringer perspective and what we can do prestige TV podcasts and the watch. And can you just give us shows that we could talk about? Apple was in the mix this year for us. Like we had really from presumed innocent last year. Yeah, which I like. I thought that was good. Your friends and neighbors, like they had some stuff that was like, all right, we can talk about this. Although you were not on board with the studio. You're not on board with their 23 Emmy nominations. No, I would. Well, you didn't get one though. I did not get one. Please don't bring that up.

51:32Bill Simmons:By the way, it's unfair that you said I was not on board. I watched every episode of the studio. I watched every episode. We did an episode of the first three episodes. I watched all of them. I actually thought the last couple episodes were really good. I thought it was a really uneven show. I really respected it. I watched every minute of it. And my problem with it ultimately was I didn't know who I was supposed to be rooting for, which might have been the answer. Maybe nobody. Seth Rogen's character, it's like I just didn't like the character. and I was supposed to be rooting for him. They lean heavily on the fact that Seth himself is so likable that he can do some dumb and kind of despicable things and you're still supposed to like him.

52:18I happen to think Seth is great and I do like him even in a role like that, but I hear your criticism.

52:24Bill Simmons:Yeah, I just felt like they could have tilted him more. Did you get a lot of recognition from that? What happened? I mean... I want to know. Did your life change? No. My life. Are you kidding? Other than people texting me. No. My life. And although I do get recognized sometimes. Like at a Dodgers game? You went to a Dodgers game today where people just pointing at you like, hey, that's the guy from the studio. Are you kidding me? Not at the Dodgers game. At like Sundance or at like the Polo Lounge on a Friday afternoon. Yes. Everybody knows. But people know me from the town now too. And from my newsletter.

52:56So it doesn't.

52:57Bill Simmons:I know you because you work with Craig Horlbeck. They're like, hey, that's the guy who works with Craig. I bring Craig to movie premieres. nobody wants to talk to me. They don't want to talk to him. He's a handsome guy. He's much more personable to me. He knows a lot about fantasy football, which I do not. And he's got very deep movie knowledge from the rewatchables. He's the only 30-year-old that can quote risky business. I know. We're indoctrinating him in the 80s and 90s, including Species this week. Oh, he texted me about Species. He's like, I can't believe this movie existed. Yeah, that's his reaction a lot of the time.

53:29Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's like, what were they thinking? Matt Bellany, pleasure to see you as always. We can read you in the puck on Puck News, and we can listen to you on The Town, an awesome podcast produced by Craig Corbeck. And TheRinger.com. And TheRinger.com. Good to see you. This episode is brought to you by my old buddy, Paramount+. See you Sunday on Paramount+. You're streaming home for the NFL and CBS all season long. That's right, football fans. Stream your live local CBS games every NFL Sunday all the way through the AFC Championship game. Follow the league's biggest stars, can't miss matchups, and the season's biggest storylines.

54:05Bill Simmons:Catch additional coverage with NFL Today, NFL Today Plus, CBS Sports HQ, Fantasy Football Today, and more. So sign up and sign into Paramount Plus today. And we'll see you Sunday for another thrilling season of the NFL on CBS, streaming live on Paramount Plus. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, NFL Sunday Ticket. Kickoff's coming, and with NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get every game, every Sunday, all in one place. New users can get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just$30 a month. New users pay$240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of$30 a month. First charge of purchase.

54:41Bill Simmons:Availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games and YouTube TV for local and national games. YouTube TV required. Terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. All right. Nate Tice is here. We're recording on a Sunday. He's a second time new dad. He works for Yahoo. You can listen to his podcast and read him there. He's been on this pod a few times. First of all, how much sleep are you getting? Are you prepared for NFL when you don't sleep? Yeah, no, I'm okay. Actually, like the old background of coaching and scouting kind of helped me prep for this, of like surviving on two to four hours and a lot of coffee.

55:17But no, we're good. We got a good rhythm. My wife is a champ. That's what I'm leaving it at. She's been an absolute champ. I've had a nice break.

55:25Bill Simmons:They do 95 % of the work. Um, so I got into NFL. I have the same process every year and the last like 10, 11 days dove in, did my process, had a good time actually doing it. Some things jumped out to me and where I wanted to land to talk to you. I'm not ready to have any full scale opinions yet, but the jump level teams, I want to start there because that's a good way to think about the season as a whole, each conference, who's going to move up from one level to another. I don't want to go negative. We'll go positive because it's sunny out here in Southern California. It's good times, not a lot of stress.

56:04Bill Simmons:But there's three different types of teams that jump a level. We have the playoff team to legit contender, the blah team to playoff team, and the out of nowhere team, which is just, they're just staples now. Now we don't bat an eyelash when somebody like the Broncos or the Commanders or the Chargers when they just jump five, six wins. This is just what happens. Which group is the hardest group for you to figure out out of those three groups? I actually would say the playoff team to legit contender because I think that's the hardest tier to break into, kind of a legit Final Four team. It can make that any single year, can withstand some injuries, has a dude at quarterback or at least an offense that can roll that way, has a run game, has a defense.

56:50And not a lot of teams can check all those boxes. We saw what the Eagles did. The Chiefs are kind of their own thing. They're the mid-90s Houston Rockets. They're kind of just always their own thing. But every other team, all the mortal teams, this is what you need to have. And it's just really hard to check all those boxes of truly having a run game, truly having an explosive passing game, and vice versa on defense. Being able to stop those things on defense. So that's the hardest one to break into because it's just hard. It's just really hard to build that legit team.

57:22Bill Simmons:Yeah, you're talking this little crack between the two tiers. So last year, the Lions were the team that made the jump. And that was the team I went all in on last year, picked them to win the Super Bowl. That did not happen. But, you know, they laid the groundwork the previous year. They had a really good playoff loss, if you can have a good playoff loss, good foundation. They kept their two coordinators and it just felt like everything was lined up and you could really see it. I had a little more trouble coming up with the team this year, but I had four candidates and I'm going to take the next few weeks to figure it out.

57:52Bill Simmons:But the four candidates I sent you and I'll give you the conference odds on Fandor for each of these, but the Rams were at plus eight 50 had a really nice, as we look back, a really nice loss to the Eagles, right? Kind of had the Eagles, even at the tail end, they're in the 15th round, just throwing haymakers with the Rocky Jalen Carter plays away to Jalen Carter plays away. That's what it was. But yeah, they were very close to getting them. So there's one. Yep. Tampa, 13 to one with some wide receiver injuries last year. And, and just, we're just frisky the whole time. And, and they're bringing all 11 starters back on offense.

58:30Bill Simmons:Worfs is going to be out for a couple of weeks, but so that's team number two. And the Texans, I just have to put in at 12 to one and win the conference just because of how good the defense was in the playoffs specifically. And you think like they kind of had the year from hell in a bunch of different ways with some receiver injuries. And, you know, they did trade tons. I'm not crazy about their offensive line, but that's another one. And then the fourth one is the one that surprised me that I included in here is the Broncos at 13-1. Made the playoffs. Felt like they overachieved just to make the playoffs.

59:07Bill Simmons:Had all the makings of, oh, we'll get to this year and they'll take the dip back. There's some reasons why that might not happen. The one team I don't have in here is Washington because I think they were officially a contender. They made the title game. You can't put them in there. All right. So Rams, Bucks, Broncos, Texans, which one did you get the most excited about? Rams. And it's just because they have, you know, why maybe you get excited about the Texans, the Rams kind of a version of this, where they have the great equalizer in a playoff game. That's a pass rush. And they have a dude at quarterback and they have, you know, Alaric Jackson, their left tackle is going to be out with blood clots.

59:46And I know you know about players on your team having blood clots and what they can do to a season so like but that's that's this one wrinkle and kind of like the theory of the rams this year but davante adams still has plenty left in the tank like he is still a difference maker but the thing is i i think puka nakua is not getting kind of the credit of what he actually is i think some people think he's a beneficiary of the offense like no kidding that's every every top receiver is a beneficiary of the offense, but he's a legit top five receiver in this game. He's an actual elite guy. Now Devontae Adams is like a 2A in this offense.

1:00:21And Cooper Cup is no longer there. Cooper Cup has really fallen off and is really not the difference maker. He's become a kind of very isolated type of player and how they have to use them. But they drafted Terrence Ferguson, and he's a tight end from Oregon, really athletic. They're going to use more tight ends. This is where I'm envisioning this offense. I think it's going to be just a better version of what we've seen the last couple of years. When this offense has been healthy, I know that's an if. It's a big if. They have been supernova. Not just like, oh, a top offense. One of the better offenses we've seen in the last 20 years level of good.

1:00:54And we saw it last year. Remember the Vikings game? I think it was a Thursday night game when Puka Nakua comes back. They just go crazy. That's what this team could be. So it's a fine line. That's why the odds are what they are. But man, they have a pass rush. The defense is more funky than outright good, but the pass rush is good. And so that's why I think they have a really, you know, they actually have a snowball's chance in hell to win this, not just the division with a really, really tough division, the NFC West, but the conference as well. So pass rush, passing game, a run game. That's a really good team.

1:01:25Bill Simmons:Is it a tough division? That's one of the things I'm staring at with the research. I keep hearing how tough the NFC West is, and I'm staring at it going, eh. It's really frisk. It's a lot of good units. Like there's a lot of good defenses. There's a lot of good run games. Like it's a lot to prepare for. I don't think any of them are elite, but it's a lot of good. Like I think any four of those teams are playoff teams because I'm going to get to another one in a little bit. But maybe that's why I'm angling this way. Okay, I got you. Yeah. So Puka, I think he's, for the smart guy NFL people, he's like just stunning him on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, the blocking, all the kind of football player stuff he does.

1:02:07Bill Simmons:He's whatever that weird team is. It's like the all NBA for the NFL super nerd team. He's just, he's in there. He's like catnip. Adams I'm really intrigued by with the, just being in a good situation again. I just, I thought Rogers was terrible last year. I thought their offense was terrible. The coaching was terrible. Then you go back to Vegas where he was in that Netflix show famously, just almost seemed like he didn't want to get killed. He hasn't been in a good situation really since probably the second to last Green Bay situation. And now he's in number two. And if they hit with that tight end, everybody's already trying to pump him up as a fantasy asset.

1:02:47Bill Simmons:But that was the team that jumped out to me too in the NFC. I do think there's a Bucks case. And I want to study more about how long Werfs is going to be out. But I don't know. That's just a team that has an identity. I know what they are. And they have one of the best four lines in the league, offense. So we know they can block. We know they're going to be able to move the ball. We know they're going to be able to score. I like the division they're in. Schedule is going to be a little harder this year. But I think it's probably one of those two teams, right? Is there any other team? I guess no other team even really qualifies.

1:03:22Yeah. I mean, this is kind of cheating, it feels like, because of the record last year. is if J.J. McCarthy is just okay or better, the Vikings did a lot of nice things this offseason to kind of maybe shore up their volatility. And just the offensive line and the defensive line, you know, getting Hargrave, getting Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, and they're just some real beef. So it's just they don't have to be as funky, you know, on the defense. They actually have some guys that can just win as well, and they have some other players that are really good. And just the offense, too. I think this offensive line, They went and got Mason from San Fran.

1:03:57Aaron Jones is still there, but now they have a one-two punch. And because they have Justin Jefferson, they get a lot of unique looks. Devontae Adams got these looks too, actually, which is why I think this Rams pair is going to be awesome. But they get so many soft boxes that they can just pound away at them, get five, six yards a pop. Just like it's nothing. And so now they finally have built a line, and they got Jordan Mason to be the hammer with Aaron Jones. And now they got a guy that can just really pound away four, five, six yards. So the Vikings, I'm just keeping my eye on because I really, it's just McCarthy has to just be okay.

1:04:2818th quarterback or better in this team. You know, there's an angle here. There's a line here that they can really make it.

1:04:34Bill Simmons:I hate them from a future standpoint because there's no way to be right or wrong. Who the fuck knows with McCarthy? He's coming off a major knee injury. He's never started in an NFL game before. And everything hinges on whether he's good or not. And it could go any direction. And anyone who says, like, I know how this is going to play out, like, there's no way to know. It's 14 to 1 for a reason. I will say that to win the NFC Championship. Yeah, it's 14 to 1 for a reason. Well, and they won 14 games last year before everything fell apart in the span of eight days. We went from thinking, could this team actually win the Super Bowl to all of a sudden Sam Donald's on his way to Seattle?

1:05:14Bill Simmons:Yeah. Yeah, so that team broke my brain. and then we go to the other side with the Broncos and the Texans I don't, I personally don't think the Texans O-line if you're in the bottom five or six with your O-line and there's really, you can rank them any way you want but I don't see how I don't see a scenario where they're not in the bottom bottom crew and that part worries me and the bigger thing and I'm sure we'll be talking about this over the next six weeks is what do we have with CJ Stroud because it feels like we overreacted a year one. I don't want to also overreact to year two, but he took a major step back last year for most of the year.

1:05:54Bill Simmons:I don't know what I'm getting from him. With Stroud, no, I get it. He started actually developing a couple bad habits because of this old line, but I still really trust him because the new OC, the new coordinator is going to give him a little bit more say in the offense. The old offensive system, with Bobby Sloick, where he came from, was the Shanahan offense, which doesn't really let the quarterbacks drive the wheel. you know, they really kind of, you know, puts a lot of bumpers on the offense. They put a lot on the center and the offensive system to work. Stroud is very smart, like, and really cerebral.

1:06:25So I'm curious how this is going to look. But what you're saying is about the offensive line is why I'm worried too, is just because it's different doesn't mean it's better. I know they had some, like, bad vibes. But last year, the guys they added, so they added Kenny on – oh, no, they got rid of Kenny on Green. But then they got Ed Engram and Lincoln Tomlinson. So Kenny on Green allowed the third highest pressure rate among guards last year, amongst starting guards. Ed Ingram was first, and Lincoln Tomlinson was fourth. So, you know, yeah, it's different, but is it really going to be any better?

1:06:55Because that's what you added. It's going to be a little bit better because of the vibes, but again, I don't think the run game is going to be trustworthy. But I do like Stroud a lot. That division is so wonky. The AFC South. And again, I think the defense is going to be really, really good because of the pass rush. They have decent linebackers, and I think their DB room is really good. They have Derek Stingley amongst other guys too. Yeah, secondary is going to be really good. So if they're, again, if healthy, but I think the offensive line is still going to be weakness, even if they have a lot of different names and faces out there.

1:07:25Bill Simmons:Yeah, the case for them is the defense they threw in the playoff game, you know, and the pass rush. Pass rush, yeah. Pass rush, secondary, all right, I can see something there. And they, you know, they fixed the receiver room. But then you just got to think of the conference they're in. The NFC is so much easier to find value, I think, betting-wise, as we're talking about that, because it's way more wide open. The AFC, it's like you got, you know, you got the demons at the end. You know, you got Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, shoot, even the middle tier teams, Justin Herbert, all these guys, Joe Burrow.

1:08:02So it's like that's, the AFC is just so much tougher at the top. They already have the contender guys. You know, that's more the middle ground. That's interesting. While the AFC, it's like, whoa, I think it can go any which way.

1:08:11Bill Simmons:Yeah, I did my, I did my first stab but my player rankings because it really helped me last year where it did do all that. And the AFC South was just the worst of all the divisions from just the standpoint of talent. And I was surprised. I didn't think they would be coming in last. But offensive lines, Houston, Cincinnati, the Giants, Seattle, Jacksonville, and then maybe New England. Although I think if Will Campbell's good, New England's line might actually be okay. So he's kind of the swing. But those are probably the five worst plus New England if Campbell doesn't make it. So the other team there in the AFC, the Broncos.

1:08:52Bill Simmons:I was prepared to write them off and they weren't going to have enough firepower, harder schedule this year. AFC West is going to be really hard. I don't know. The Broncos might be good. I find myself leaning toward them as maybe that's a playoff team that can actually make a leap up and be like, whoa, the Broncos. Like they, they kind of subtly fix some of the issues they had with, with the weapons standpoint, they have to hit on both their rookies, but they have a top four line. Their defense is good. They spent some money on the defense and, uh, and they have one of the best five coaches in the league.

1:09:26Bill Simmons:So I think the case for them would be the chiefs fall backwards. The chargers fall back a little bit because their schedule is going to be harder. And then Vegas is Vegas and maybe they can climb up. there's no chance the Broncos can win that division, right, for you? You just have the Chiefs penciled in forever? I put it this way. I think the Broncos are alive to win it, but I do think the Chiefs are better this year in the weirdest way. So I do think it's still the Chiefs division. Make the case for the Chiefs being better. Let me hear it. I actually am high on the offensive line they added, both guys.

1:10:00So, yeah, I think there's going to be some up-and-downness, but this is a quarterback used to that up-and-downness. I also just think some of the defensive guys that they had I think that's going to make more sense If they're healthy on the back end I keep saying if they're healthy But this is true in the NFL This is how you have to look at these things But I do think that they still have the dude at quarterback And I think Rasheed Rice coming back And no, I mean, suspension pending But I do think that he is a lot better Than people are giving him credit for And what's going to add to the explosiveness of the offense I think maybe Travis Kelsey kind of knows his role now too Kelsey was interesting last year because he's definitely dropped off as a receiver, but it was probably his best blocking year ever because he was kind of...

1:10:40Yeah, he's never been into blocking. He knows how he gets paid and why he's very famous. But last year, he kind of knew his role. It was kind of interesting. It became like Robin Lopez almost. But he's just scrapping, setting screens, getting off his boards. But no, I have more faith in the Chiefs this year than I did last year in the weirdest way. and maybe it's just because I'm being lazy mentally, but I do think the Broncos are a better team. I think this defense could be the best defense in the NFL. And I think the Broncos added some juice with the skill players that I really liked. Like I've really come around on Pat Bryant, their third-round pick.

1:11:18It was a little high, but I do like the pick. And then R.J. Harvey is going to add just a little bit of juice in the running back room. Their running backs were just bad last year. And the O-line is a top-five O-line. That's how you win a playoff game. Like I could see the Broncos being a playoff team easy, but I don't know if it, I still think it's the Chiefs to lose.

1:11:37Bill Simmons:Well, you know, what's funny about what you said with the Chiefs, by the way, the Chiefs are minus one 10 on Fando for the division chargers plus two 80. The Broncos are plus three 30, which I think is too high. I think that should be a little closer, but the funny thing with the Chiefs, I agreed with what you said. I also feel like the case for them, at least from a talent standpoint is they should probably be better because it's weird. Last year was the year from, from hell for them. in some ways, right? But then they were 11-0 in one-score games. So it's like, you're from hell, but then also this crazy luck over and over again for the first three-fourths of the season.

1:12:11Bill Simmons:You feel like even if the one-score luck balances out, the health luck is going to flip it the other way. That division's going to be a bitch, though. Like, Vegas was a walkover last year, and Vegas is not going to be a walkover. They're going to actually be hard to play. Yeah, Vegas is going to be so funky. They're the ultimate knuckleball team. like it just geno smith is a legit quarterback and then they have chip kelly who's gonna just i i'm very excited for chip kelly back in the nfl and as an oc not as an nfl so he can just sit in his lab and do what he wants to do i think it's gonna be one of those and their defense is interesting too you know it's not they lack a little bit of firepower along their lines but they still have dudes you know they they max crosby's a dude christian wilkins if he's healthy as a dude.

1:12:56And of course they got Janty, the running back. And Brock Bowers on offense. So I look at them as like a seven win team that's going to just be really annoying because of what they do on offense and defense. Definitely like a what do you call it? A league pass team. That's what the Raiders are for me.

1:13:13Bill Simmons:They're a league pass team and they're also a do not throw them the team they're playing in a three team tease or some sort of big parlay because the Raiders are plus nine and a half and somehow just beating somebody outright, they're a stay away from me. I think out of those four teams, Rams, Bucs, Broncos, Texans, I think now it's July 20th. It could change. We still have the training camps are going to start. There's going to be all the stuff we learn from all the media pieces and all the coverage and the day-to-day stuff. There's so many variables. Tett McMillan might come into Carolina and people are just going to be like, I'm blown away.

1:13:53Bill Simmons:Every day this guy does something. And it could be one of those situations like, all right, now I have to revise this Carolina thing if this guy's going to be Mike Evans right away. I don't know if that's going to happen. But we have, or Hampton on the Chargers. Like the season, the preseason might start and everybody might be like, this guy's incredible. Or the guy you mentioned on the Broncos, Harvey. Yeah. What if he's just awesome? You know, and we went from like, as you said, the bottom five running back crew in the NFL to all of a sudden they have this dude on pace for 1 ,400 yards. so we don't know yet but these are just kind of the the leans i think i think those are fair and and this year too just this this class there's a lot of what players you know consider were more good than elite you know a lot more green chip guys and blue chip guys right and that's the thing is when you get a lot of that there's a lot of variance though there's a lot of guys that could rise a lot higher like the team was right and taking this guy so that's where i think there's just a lot more surprises when you get that like okay this is you know it's kind of just an interesting class and especially the positions you know there's a lot of running backs that can make an impact caleb johnson with the steelers going to it was just the whole time it was he has to go to his own team he has to go to his own team he has and then he goes to the steelers who only run zone and it's like okay well this could work like even even whoever's playing a quarterback but it's like there's at least a path there to okay this guy actually in this offensive system because they have an interesting offensive line too that they can sneak up on teams.

1:15:18They can beat some of these bad teams that just can't stop the run. And I know that sounds just so simplistic, but that's what football is. It's like, if a team can run five yards at a time, they're not going to recall anything else. They don't need their new quarterback to do anything.

1:15:31Bill Simmons:Do you feel like there's any meat left on the Bo Nix bone, or did what we see last year is basically what it is? Everything's going to come down to what you can do on third down. But this is kind of how I pictured him. Like a lot of, he has some creativity to him. He's a great athlete. and he's got an absolute rocket of an arm. Sometimes he technically will be accurate because he throws underneath a lot. And Sean Payton did a hell of a job to kind of figure out the offense with him. But that's the thing. He built it for his rookie quarterback. Can he make the leap? Usually we'll see a lot. It all depends on third down.

1:16:06I don't think there's a lot more because he's older. And this is just how we play in college too. You know, a cheetah doesn't change its spots kind of thing. Like this is the type of player he'll be. but it's good enough to start. It's good enough to win a playoff game, I think, because of just how they built this offense. So I don't think there's as much meat as maybe the other guys of his class. And I think that was kind of the expectation when they drafted him too.

1:16:29Bill Simmons:We're taking a break and then we got to race through the rest of these because I really want to clear the floor for you for Timberwolves-Summerly combo, but we're taking one break. Hey, I was lucky enough to get a son and a daughter through their early teens and their mid-teens in the social media era. and even though we were constantly monitoring it, there's still a whole bunch of stuff that can go wrong. And that's why Instagram teen accounts have automatic protections on by default. Built-in content settings for the content teens can see, contact limits for who can contact them and time management tools like daily time limits and sleep mode.

1:17:04Bill Simmons:Teens are automatically placed in the teen accounts. Teens under 16 will need a parent's permission to change any of these settings to be less strict. Instagram will continue adding built-in safety features to help create age-appropriate experiences. Learn more about teen accounts and Instagram's ongoing work to protect teens online at instagram.com slash teenaccounts. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Whether you're racing to build the biggest sandcastle, seeing who can throw the fastest pitch, or competing in a championship match, it's always better when there's a prize on the line, like Michelob Ultra, smooth, refreshing, and so satisfying after all that hard work.

1:17:41Bill Simmons:superior is worth playing for michelob ultra superior light beer enter for a chance to win superior soccer basketball golf prizes at michelobulture.com slash superior access enjoy responsibly copyright 2026 anheuser-busch michelob ultra light beerst louis missouri all right next category is the blah team to the playoff team i would describe blah you're like seven and 10, you're eight and nine. A couple of things happen, nothing memorable. Maybe you had a bad injury or the Bengals case, you had just had crazy bad luck in close games. In Miami's case, maybe your quarterback seemed like he should have to retire from football and then he didn't.

1:18:26Bill Simmons:In Atlanta's case, maybe you spent a ton of money on a guy who turned out he was a corpse and then you had to bring in the next guy. in the Niners case, maybe every single thing that could have possibly gone wrong went wrong. So our nominees, so last year was the 24 Vikings, who they were fine. Nobody really had any high expectations for them. Then boom, they're 14 and three. The year before it was the 23 Lions and the Browns made big jumps. So our nominees this year from this weird range, the Bengals 9-8 last year, Colts 8-9, Miami 6-11. That's AFC. So let's do AFC first. Bengals, Colts, Miami.

1:19:06Bill Simmons:Who intrigues you? Bengals. Just because the offense. But that's, of that group, that's not like, I'm not like really excited. I'm not as, I think this is what the Bengals are. They're in this range. Like they are a 9-win team. Maybe you can get to 10. Because just, I, There's so much just, I mean, they haven't signed their first round pick still. They're just the defense I still don't trust. I respect that defense coordinator. Why would you? The defense is terrible. Why would you trust it? And look at the division they're in and the conference they're in. Again, it's just that it's hell in the AFC if you don't have at least a viable side, at least a top half side on both sides, offense and defense.

1:19:49So it's based on how many points they can score. And I do respect the offensive vision. I've actually really have liked Zach Taylor's slash Joe Burrow. I'm sure he has a lot of input, like the changes they make year to year. Like I really do think everything the defenses throw at them, they always find new little wrinkles, even if it's a, you know, maybe not the most varied offense, like the closest comparison is the Colts and the thoughts with Peyton Manning, like where he, it was just like, they ran their seven plays. You got to stop them. And that's kind of the level they're at right now. But it's a lot like those Colts teams of the us.

1:20:22What was their defense? Like, you know, is just based on how good they are is based on how good their defense was. But I don't, it's just such a tough division and conference that it's hard to say that they can be anything more. It's where other teams have to drop around them, if that makes sense.

1:20:37Bill Simmons:I don't get the Bengals case. Now, it's July 20th. I might change my mind, but I just look at, they're the guy in fantasy who spends$170 on three guys and then tries to fill out the rest of the roster with the$1 guys. That's exactly what they are. And after the draft, he's like, I have Chase and Higgins and Burrow. And you're like, cool, no running backs. It's a lot like the Saints with Breeze for a while. And remember them in the 2010s? He's thrown 5 ,000 yards, but they're winning six games. It's a lot like that. They're just a weirdly shaped team because they didn't hit on defense like they needed to.

1:21:20Bill Simmons:Well, the combo of overpaying, well, they didn't overpay. They properly paid their three guys, but they paid them like premier. Yeah. They paid Chase and Burrow, like top five guys. They got a slight discount on Higgins, but he's still making a lot of money. But they're also a cheap franchise. And so like when the, like the Chiefs today, before we started recording, they signed Karl Aftis for like a$90 million extension. And it's like, and I've made this joke over and over again. I'm going to keep making it. I don't understand the NFL salary cap at all. It doesn't seem like this isn't like the second apron where your Timberwolves have to be like, can't afford Alexander Walker, who pushes over the second apron.

1:22:00Bill Simmons:There is no any apron in the NFL. And she's like, yeah, Karl Aftis. We'll just keep pushing the money that way. The Bengals don't do that at all. Teams are starting to complain about that, though. That's not what the Eagles are doing. They're like, OK, OK, OK. You guys won your title. Let's stop this. But we'll see how the player union can even fight that. Yeah. But I look at the Bengals and I'm like, if you're going to spend big money on three guys, you can't also then be cheap. The other teams in that group is just hard. Like the Dolphins are like, what are the Dolphins? They have an awful DB room.

1:22:37Awesome front seven. I'll say that on defense. But then on offense, it's like, I can't trust the offensive line, even if I do like pieces. They kind of just feel like they're in an identity shift. They keep talking about how tough and physical they're going to be. but it was like oh no you guys want or winning with a lot of speed though so like and then the colts it's i i i i know what daniel jones is uh even if i really like what the wrong game is gonna be and i was i i still have a garden on anthony richards richardson island and and actually i and actually maybe like a picket fence on riley leonard island like so you own property on anthony richardson island i i do i do like a garden i just thought there was a chance he could be like Culpepper.

1:23:19You got to remember what I saw when I grew up with. So I still have a garden. I used to have a house, but I sold it.

1:23:27Bill Simmons:Here's the difference, though. Culpepper was this big-ass dude who was actually pretty durable, at least for the first part of his career. Then his knee exploded. Well, then his knee exploded. Yeah. Yeah. But I mean, he would take big hits and get up. Richardson seems like he gets - He was also really accurate. Well, that helps, too. But Richardson seems like it takes big hits and stays down. Yes, and that's what led to the turmoil last year where his teammates were openly complaining about him. He couldn't do that. That's where I kind of sold. But then he played some games where he kind of, like against the Jets, who kind of had the white flag.

1:24:02But I would say it's a garden. Now you're making me say it's just a flower, just one plant. That's fair. One potted plant. Thank you. I appreciate it. I respect it.

1:24:11Bill Simmons:I think Miami has a chance to be absolutely terrible. It's one of the only future bets I've already made was to bet the adjusted unders on them. I don't see it at all. What is that? Well, I think it moved, but I did one of the bets I did when I was in Indiana was I did, I think I did under seven wins for them or under six wins or like whatever. I think it's moved a little bit. I also think McDaniel is in first coach fire territory. It feels weird right now. Yeah, it feels like, let's see how this goes. I think their division, you know the pats are going to be better and the jets might actually be like a whiff frisky and then you have buffalo in there so i don't know um jets are gonna be a bad team beater that's that's why i call them like they're they because they have a run game and they have a defense that's gonna be good too so it's like and just a mentality so like they're gonna be like a bad like you better bring it but i can see them i can see what they're gonna be that classic team that wins three at the end of the season yeah and everyone's like oh oh aaron glenn's got them coming around as they He finished 6-11, but he was one of the last three, but a lot of close games.

1:25:17But the Jets' run game, that whole line is pretty badass. And they got a little run game with Justin Fields and stuff. So, yeah, watch the Jets' run game this year.

1:25:26Bill Simmons:I don't see them being a high-points offense, but I see a lot of like 16-13, 19-12. Greg Maddox starts. 10-9. Yeah, yeah. A lot of fast ones. I don't really like any of those choices either for the AFC. And by the way, it's perfect to be like, you know what? I don't like Bengals, Colts, or Miami. In the other division, or the other conference, Falcons, Dallas, and the Niners. Falcons were 8-9, Dallas 7-10, Niners 6-11. Pennix, to me, is a follow-up to that J.J. McCarthy porn I made earlier. I just don't know. What if he's just not good? We have no idea. There were flashes, right? Did you like what you saw?

1:26:08Yeah, he's kind of like Cutler to me, Jay Cutler, where it's the highs are high and he has a huge arm. But sometimes it's the varsity blues scene where the Cowboys get knocked out the horse. You know, like that it's just once in a while you don't know where it's going. Yeah. And that's the thing. So I think he's volatile, but I think the run game is going to be good. And I think that he he has enough highs that it's going to like, yeah, there's going to be some games where he comes alive. But I think that defense is just going to be bad. I don't think they'll be able to stop the run. And they play in the division with the Bucs, the Panthers, and the Saints who all drafted first-round linemen and invested in a run game.

1:26:44So, yeah, I'm staying away from the Falcons, even if Penix is okay.

1:26:49Bill Simmons:Niners, everybody's on. Yeah. It's a 10.5. I think the 10.5 is too high. It's schedule-related, and it's injury-luck-related. I get it, but I just think they lost a lot of dudes. And from a receiver standpoint, everyone's like, well then I you could be back and it's like Willie when's he coming back he he blew out his knee in October like we're just throwing him back in just running up and down the field for three hours I'm not buying that yet and it's just a tough another you don't think so but it's a tough division they have the easiest schedule in the NFL that's that's and they I do think they're better because on defense uh I I think that they went about this offseason like what how they should have now I just getting Robert Sala back in the building.

1:27:36But they became really bad against the run. They leaned into the bit a little too much. They really wanted to be like, we're feisty. We get up field on the front, like, ah, ears pinned back. But they went and signed Javon Hargrave, who I complimented for the Vikings. But for the 49ers, he just actually wasn't what they needed because he was just too risk-reward. And they already have that with Nick Bosa, who's their dude. But it's just kind of like, okay, all right, if we don't get him right away and get this TFL, that's a six-yard gain and Fred Warner has to clean it up. And I think now, but having said all that, so the stats, and I know EPA can be a little volatile if you don't have a huge data set, but this is a nice season long.

1:28:15So since 2019, the 49ers against the run, EPA per rush. 9th, 2019, 9th in 2020, 1st in 2021, 2nd in 2022, 2023, 28th, 2024, 28th. And how they play defense is very, they play quarters so it's very like I wouldn't say soft but it's more like hey we rallied to tackle like we have a really good linebacker in Fred Warner we have feisty safeties and I think what they did was okay first round pick Mikel Williams who is going to enter the league as maybe against the pass he's going to be more of a developmental guy but he's like awesome against the run and so I think they ate you know ate their vegetables a little bit this offseason so I kind of like I kind of like that on defense to really help them out because that was more of a blemish than I I think people realized last year.

1:29:01And I think, of course, you have Kyle Shanahan, which, so if guys are healthy, like you said with the receivers, like it's easy. I think it's an easy nine wins, 11 wins, like the win total is. That's a little, that's a little sketchy to me. You know, I think this is a 9-10 win team, but definitely a proved team.

1:29:17Bill Simmons:Williams, 10-1 on Fando for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Okay. That one jumped out at me. Because he only had Abdul Carter and Jalen Walker ahead of him. Yeah, and Carter has They have too many dudes on the Giants defense You know what I mean? So his stats might not be crazy Like, you know, he might be good But yeah, now I'm high on Mikel Williams Even if You know, he might not be a high sack guy this year But man, this guy's, I think, going to be a two-way Against the run and the pass Going to be a really good player down the road So I got to look at the Niners more I want to find out more about IU Because I think they're going to have a lot of trouble throwing the ball The McCaffrey stuff has already started that he's in the best shape of his life.

1:29:57Bill Simmons:So we get to do that. The dude works out for 12 bucks a year. Every year it's like, oh, this is the year he's coming in great shape. He's running the Germany again, the blood spin. He's getting all that. I don't trust it. Is it cool if I don't trust it? I just don't assume he's going to play for four straight months anymore. Yeah. Yeah, and that's what's tough. I trust the run game, if that makes sense, but CMC makes the whole offense like supernova. So if you trust that. But I do think they're obviously going to be better just because they have to be. They faced so much bad luck last year. Well, Dallas.

1:30:30Bill Simmons:Who's the other nominees? Yeah, Dallas. Yeah. Yeah, Falcons, I just think we put to the side. Who knows? Dallas. There's a pretty interesting case for Dallas, which would be fun for me because it really determines Cousin Sal's mood on Sunday nights. But, you know, they're getting some guys back, some injuries. They had a good draft. Dak's back. Coaching change. There's some signs. It's coaching change is always good. I know people weren't that fired up about the Brian Schottenheimer thing, but people weren't fired up about Dan Quinn. Who the F knows? Is there a Cowboys case at all for you? We know they have the quarterback.

1:31:06Bill Simmons:They're going to be able to block. They'll have a pass rush. Their D-line, that whole area is among the best in the league. Maybe? No, definitely maybe. I think they are definitely going to be a winning team. You know, now this NFC is going to be wide open. I think not only the offensive line, they drafted another guy in the first round, Tyler Booker. So they have some real beef. But then they also, their offensive coordinator is Clayton Adams. And they signed him from the Cardinals. He was the offensive line coach with the Cardinals. And I really like this because this is kind of what the Lions kind of, I don't want to say what the Lions did outright, but it's like having a full faith OC who was actually the line guy.

1:31:47This is actually what the Packers did. It may be better. So Schottenheimer's the play caller. But the OC is technically like the run game coordinator. So I think that was actually just, if you just read between the lines, this is a commitment to what they're going to do. And this is where Dak can really beat Dak, is get to control the game before he's one of the best before the snap, kind of controlling everything. So you get the strong run game that, hey, you're going to play us like this because now they have George Pickens. And Pickens I didn't like for everybody, but I like George Pickens for the Cowboys because he is a great stylistic fit.

1:32:19Oh, yeah. I don't think he's a two. I don't think he's a true number one guy, but guess who is a number one guy? CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee is a slot. He's what I call a power slot. He's best from the slot or best as a Z, who is off the ball and can move around. That's a flanker. George Pickens is a true X. He is on the ball. Straight line. Straight line. Goes in stop routes. Dak Prescott, for better or for worse, loves throwing stop routes, which is a 10 yards or 12 yards and turn around stop. That's literally what it sounds like. It's kind of an archaic route now because of how defenses play, but he likes them.

1:32:53If you're accurate and you have a dude that can win, Pickens is amazing at him. So I actually think that was great. And this frees up CeeDee Lamb to move all over the formation. So he makes sense more to the Cowboys than I thought maybe to other teams. So I really like that fit for a few reasons. On defense, they have the dude, Micah Parsons. I really liked a sneaky signing they had, Jack Sanborn, who's with the Bears. and they got face injury at linebacker and that's maybe they're still a little iffy against the run. I think they'll be okay, but they're going to be great against the pass because of their pass rush.

1:33:27But Sanborn, I think, will help shore it up until Overshown comes back. I thought that was a sneaky good signing for them that he can end up being a decent linebacker starter. Just an okay starter for him, but that's what they need. Desperately need that right now.

1:33:39Bill Simmons:They threw away their running back position again, which I don't totally understand. I didn't like that. I do like the run game. It's one of those I like. It's more like how the Broncos were. I really like the blocking and the run game, but maybe the running backs are going to be frustrating. Guess who they have? Javante Williams, who was with the Broncos last year. Well, I don't love their, you know, when we do these FPI, whatever the hell, the schedule thing, I don't totally love it because I think teams change so much from year to year. I just look at their first eight weeks. Like they start out there at Philly in the first game of the year.

1:34:16Bill Simmons:Like that sucks. That's like almost a guaranteed 0-1. They have Giants at home. At Chicago, week three. Like, what if Chicago's pretty good? Homepackers, week four. At Jets, at Panthers. And then they're at Broncos, week eight. So it's like, you look at that and you go, can you get to four and four? Can you be four and four coming out of that? Could you get to five and three? Or is it probably looking like a three and five? So it's going to be somewhere in there and that's going to determine how they go. Yeah. No, absolutely. Oh, man, that is a tough slate. Yeah, I don't like it. It's one of those where you look at it and go, ah, I don't really like any of these games.

1:34:52And even matchup-wise, it's not exactly ideal. It's like those are teams that can stay. Well, Puss, you said Overshawn.

1:34:58Bill Simmons:When does he come back? I have no idea. He might be like second half of the season. Yeah. All right, let's do, we'll make this quick, the out-of-nowhere teams, which have become more and more of a lock. We had the Broncos, Chargers, and Washington. This is one of the reasons I did so well last year is I nailed these last year, which makes me almost, I'm almost coming to grips with I'm going to get killed this year because I did too well last year. But I sent you all the playoff odds, all the teams. Give me like three that jump out to you as like a possible out-of-nowhere leap. Again, I lean towards the NFC, and there was a nice stat I got from NFL Research this week.

1:35:42I think we're at 35 straight years, so since 1990. that four teams that didn't make the playoffs made the playoffs the next year. 35 straight years.

1:35:52Bill Simmons:I always tried to do three in each conference. Last year, there were only four total that flipped. Usually, it's six. And you usually have to just try to figure out the six. The math, yeah. That's why I just keep looking at the NFC because I just think it's so up and down based on the quarterbacks. You've already talked about some of the young guys. It's like the Packers could be a good team, but I look at the Cardinals as the first team that comes to mind for this exercise, not only just because I like their offense, but I'm really, really, really intrigued by their defense. They face the fifth easiest schedule.

1:36:24Again, we know how that can change and everything. I think the offense, I know what it is. I don't think it can maybe get to that top five, but I think this could be a top 12, top 10 unit with a good run game. Explosive offense, the big thing for me is I don't know who can take the top off. So it might maybe feel a little tight. They got to expand Marvin Harrison Jr.'s role. So, but I, I, I trust the offense in the weirdest way. And I, even if Kyle Murray can be up and down, he was, he was better last year. That was one of his most, that was like his most consistent season ever. So if they can just even get that, but the defense, this defense last year was the 10th best defense in the EPA or the second half of the season.

1:37:02Coincided with a lot of guys coming back from injury. They had, they lost, they had the fourth most Justin Gaines loss for the what's now FTN fantasy, which used to be football outsiders, outsiders guys, but those guys, but they were 10th in the second half of the season. They had the sixth highest pressure rate in the second half of the season. They got Baron Browning. They added a whole bunch of new faces on defense, like real talent, draft and free agency. They get guys coming back from injury, like BJ Ojolari, who missed his second year, but had a solid rookie year. Signed Josh Swett, Dalvin Tomlinson, drafted Walter Nolan in the first round.

1:37:35So they added real talent. And they were, again, top 10 defense without this talent last year. So the Cardinals, I think, are going to be at the very least frisky in a team that I think there was one plus 125 on the odds that you sent me. Yeah, they've been one of the most bet teams during the offseason. Secret's out. This was a lot more fun taking May than it is right now in July.

1:37:58Bill Simmons:Well, counter. Can I counter? Yeah, absolutely. Who are the blue chippers on this team for you? Trey McBride. Right, there's one. Parrish Johnson Jr., left tackle. Okay. Buda Baker, safety. I would even say they have another safety Jalen Thompson who is like borderline but they I agree with I know where you're going with this it's a lot more green and yellow more like above average to good yeah that's what when I did all my preliminary rankings I had those I had Johnson, Harrison McBride and Baker Harrison's barely I mean he certainly didn't earn it last year we're going more of the college pedigree right?

1:38:38yeah no he's gonna be he's just like his dad it's crazy like he he's literally a bigger I think he's just like his dad yeah who? no I don't know but I do think that they were trying to make him a true ex like I talked about with Pickens he's not that he's a route runner he's a guy that has to move around the formation and so I think they pigeonholed him in the first half of the season and I think they're figuring out a little bit but they need to do it it's one of those I have to see In theory, it's like, yeah, they can do it, but it's like, I still have to see it.

1:39:13Bill Simmons:There were games where you didn't even know he was playing. He was one of those. It was like Priscilla's Tobias Harris joke. It was like, hey, there's Marvin Harrison. I didn't realize he was out there the last two hours. He had some empty games. They faced, I talked about that cover two stuff. He was getting the respect of that already. But I was kind of disappointed in the Cardinals passing game to go like, okay, open them up. You're getting these cover two looks. All right, move them to the slot. I don't know. So it's one of those I want to see this year. But if they figure it out, they got a lot of good pieces, I do think.

1:39:44Bill Simmons:They had that stretch. I think they won four straight. We got all excited about them. They were overachieving. And then they just fucking cratered. I mean, it was a cratering. And they lost that Carolina game. Yeah. Oh, the Carolina game was brutal. I don't know. I just, I don't trust Kyler Murray at all. I do not have them marked down. Maybe I'll change my mind as I keep reading the newspaper stuff. All right. Give me your second one. uh second one or uh where my notes there oh okay second one uh was the bears uh i i finally their case i'm going to dig in i know again i i do believe in ben johnson i i believe in coaches that don't blink i i i just i i think that that's gonna i think he is very very detailed and i think he's working with a quarterback that is more detailed than people are getting credit for i I think we've talked about this before, but I like the O-line additions.

1:40:38Like, Joe Tooney's a top five guard. He is. Joe Tooney played tackle at the end of the last year with the Chiefs. It was bad. But the thing was, it was very unfair. The thing with the Bears is for years, and I would say since Olin Krutz basically retired, so over a decade ago, they have had just a hole at center. And it's really helped cripple their quarterbacks, their young quarterbacks. I'm a big believer in having a solid center at the very least to take the load off a young quarterback. They went and got, you know, kind of overpaid it a little bit. They got Drew Dahlman. But Drew Dahlman at the very least is a top half center in this league, a top 10 center in this league.

1:41:18He has to be specific. They have to use a lot of zone, but they're now working with a play caller that runs a lot of zone. And Ben Johnson. And I think it works with the quarterback because they're going to do more boot and more play action and more movement to their offense. there's a lot more on this more than just oh good play caller from good offense goes to offense with quarterback it's more than that there's a lot of stylistic fits that makes sense here um Caleb was a really good quick game and uh screen thrower because he's so creative and throw sidearm and throw all these funky throws Ben Johnson calls a lot of receiver screens like that that's one of those sneaky parts about this Lions offense I'm on Russell Brown was getting so many receiver screens Kalief Raymond even Jameson Williams all these guys now they get with DJ Moore who's awesome on receiver screens.

1:42:00Roman Doomsday is great on receiver screens. Even the tight end Colson Loveland's great on a little outside receiver screens. So I'm digging it. I finally am actually kind of buying the hype. I was not hyped last year. I saw the holes in the O-line. I'm like, this might not go great. I know who the play caller is. I know how this O-line is. This might not go great. This year, I'm actually buying it because of Dolman, of Tooney, even Ozzy Trapilo, who they drafted on day two. There's just a lot that makes sense stylistically. And I like the defense. Having said that, they face the third-hardest schedule.

1:42:32So that's a little bit of the part of this. But I do believe in what I saw from the flashes of Caleb Williams, even though I think a lot of people are low on him right now. I think this is going to work.

1:42:42Bill Simmons:The offensive line stuff's real. I mean, I was doing – and shout-out to Brandon Thorne because I like when he does his rankings. But he did a good job. There was a couple other things. You know, the ones that really watch it and study it, you just got to trust them because I'm not going to be able to know who the good right guard is on whatever but it really looks like they have a top 9 or 10 offensive line now and that was the reason last year fell apart among the coaching and the offensive line they fixed the coaching they're going to be able to block they have weapons, they spent money defense should be okay you know is Caleb good?

1:43:22Bill Simmons:I think is going to be what we find out because I do feel like, I just think Drake May is a safer bet than Caleb as long as he can avoid these big hits that he was taking last year. But I just think like - It's a feature, not a bug with Drake. Just go out of bounds. Don't put your head down. You're in the NFL. You're not in the ACC anymore. Just go out of bounds. It's fine. But yeah, I see the case for the Bears, but I think it's a pretty popular one. If you had to pick an AFC team, who would you pick for the out of nowhere? Oh, AFC out of nowhere? Oh, man. I had – I think I wrote one down. Just say the Pats.

1:44:03Come on. Yeah, it was the Patriots, wasn't it? It was the Patriots. Yeah. I think I texted you this, but what's cool about Will Campbell is I think his floor is just so high that no matter what, he's a best five enabler, which which means no matter what the Patriots have their best five offensive linemen out there because he can play I think all five spots uh and I there's something to that like that that is something that is really beneficial to an offense he's also a high IQ guy uh because uh he was calling out blitzes last year as a left tackle a true junior left tackle just stuff like that just little things you see on tape true leader type like not only that they got Garrett Bradbury who was iffy last year.

1:44:47He gave up a lot of pressure last year with the Vikings. But I did like their third-round pick. I like Jared Wilson from Georgia. I thought he's more of a big athlete, different than what you usually see at center, but he really took to it. He's a guy I was really high on in this draft process. And I like that he doesn't necessarily have to start right away, but I really like the upside of what he can become. And again, I talk about having a good center quarterback pairing. I think that's paramount to a good offense. So, yeah, of course, I just have to talk about the offensive line. But that's because where the success is going to come from.

1:45:21And then I really like how it works. Yeah, but think about it.

1:45:23Bill Simmons:Last year, they had a zero out of 10 coaching staff, and they had a zero out of 10 offensive line. So if you're going just 20 points for those two units, they get a zero. And now maybe Vrabel, maybe he can be like a seven or an eight out of 10, and maybe the offensive line can be a four. And so that's got to be worth like four wins. There's something to – like people always think you have to go from shit to like great. there's something from just going to shit to not shit you know from a zero to a four a one to a five or a six like that you can get a huge i was just talking about the bears drew dolman just has to be above average and it's like four tiers better center play than the bears have had in years but same with the patriots but it's just their entire offensive line and cole strange is coming back cole strange has had moments and stretches where he like it looks like a good starter it's just that it's just been few and far between with the injuries and stuff so So, yeah.

1:46:10Well, I'm already over leverage with the Pats.

1:46:13Bill Simmons:You like the Cowboys. Where are they at now? Seven and a half? Eight and a half? The Pats are in the plus 156 range to make the playoffs, which seems way too low. Cowboys are plus 186. You also, like, when you talk about this exercise, and I'm going to be talking about it a bunch on this podcast, but you almost, like, it's like a nightclub. Somebody's got to come out to bring the new person in, right? So, to me, if the Bears are going to get in there, Green Bay has to leave. Right. Green Bay, that's the spot. For Arizona, it's probably the Minnesota spot if they're going to grab one of them, right?

1:46:51Bill Simmons:Because I think we both think the Rams are going to still be there. We just pumped up the Rams too. Yeah, exactly. And it's like, all right. And then we just pumped up the 49ers as well. So it's who is not making it? I know. And that's what's... I'm more bullish on the Seahawks too, more than most people are too, I will say. Oh, make the case. because I do feel like their over-under seems at least a win too low. And I thought Sam Darnold versus Geno seems like sideways, right? Yeah, I do too. You're too the coach. I thought they had a really good draft. I thought they had one of the four or five best drafts, right?

1:47:24Yep, I agree. And I think their defense is going to be legit, legit. McDonald's defense usually takes a minute to click because just because it's so varied, they run a lot of a lot. People say, oh, you got to copy the McDonald's scheme. It's like, well, that means you're running everything. But no, they shored up. Once they got Ernest Jones last year, their linebacker play got better. Their defensive fronts can be really good. They got a lot of different body types, too. They got gap shooters, pluggers. Leonard Williams really came along, who they traded for last year. But they have a lot of talent up front.

1:47:57But also, they have really talented DBs. Devon Weatherspoon is all pro-worthy in the slot. And he's going to get weaponized in this defense. But I agree with you. I think Darnold is a sidestep because I think the offense's floor is going to be higher. They put a lot on Geno last year with a play caller that seemed to be in over his head as it turned out. Now they get Kubiak, and I think that offense, they're going to run a lot of zone, a lot of boots. Darnold's fine in that, and he'll bring some highs to the offense because he's going to go for it. He's hell or high water. He'll bring some lows too, but I think that's kind of part of the offense.

1:48:30You know what I mean? We're going to lean on the defense, have a zone run game, and have some volatility with our pass game, but we'll live with it. um i'm yeah i'm higher on them they they cut no offense today which was interesting but i i still like a.j. barner a lot they're tight end and uh the guy they drafted elijah arroyo uh but no they i'm higher on them than most because i think that defense is going to be pretty pretty good and i think the offense is going to be better than people anticipate they drafted i keep going and going sorry but gray's a bell uh at guard uh i like ola wala with teamy at center that i like Charles Cross, the left tackle, and again, going from shit to not shit.

1:49:06Not saying this is going to be a top five offensive line, but a zone boot offense helps the offensive line. So they can be like 18th or 20th. And I think that I see a vision here. Like I think a higher vision than maybe others do.

1:49:19Bill Simmons:Two good drafts in a row, which is always – I liked their draft last year. I thought they got a couple good guys out of that. Yeah, there's – I personally like the Seattle case more than the Arizona case. This is why we have all this time to think about it. All right. That's one month and I'll see. We left just enough time for the Minnesota Timberwolves and the buzz already started in that they got to do well this year. Anthony Edwards is going to start looking around. God, why do we have to do this with the NBA? I never understand it. It's ridiculous. Why? Can we just have good things? He likes Minnesota.

1:49:54Bill Simmons:The team's good. They made the conference finals two years in a row. What are we doing? Yeah. It's a team more covers the Wolves. Does a great job. He laid it all out. He's like, no one can make more money than Anthony Edwards if he stays at Timberwolves, ever, because he was the number one pick, and he's already made all NBA teams, and so can hit a higher number. He's not going anywhere. Have we looked at the youth of this team? The summer league squad was like, that was a lot of fun to watch when you have some legit NBA guys out there, as opposed to Tyus Jones is your best player. TJ Shannon was way too good out there.

1:50:30and you can see Edwards was at every game and he was hyped up for all the guys and stuff. And yeah, he's not going anywhere.

1:50:35Bill Simmons:Well, you know what else you have coming this year, which I'm really excited about? The full bringing Garnett back into the fold. Yes. Because that's been one of the big tragedies. Like he hated Glenn Taylor. There were real reasons for it. All he wanted to do was be a big part of the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he was going to wait until, so now you're going to bring, they'll retire his number this year. I don't know, the vibes are good. And by the way, you made the conference finals two years in a row. Right. The team's doing well. Things are okay. Yeah. Shoot. Joe and Berenje, who I admit I watched five minutes of before the draft.

1:51:12The highlights were good. Oh, my goodness. Second youngest player in the draft, which is always going to get me going. But he catches everything. Like, I'm pretty astounded by him. Like, he moves like a star. And I know I'm getting way ahead of myself. five summer league games, four and a half. He's very fluid.

1:51:30Bill Simmons:I saw him. There's something there. He has a good feel for space. He's stronger. He's not just this lanky athlete. A little French connection with Gobert. Obviously, Gobert might have tipped him off. Yeah, I know. I was pleasantly surprised by his summer league. What do you get from Dillingham, though? How does this Dillingham thing work? I thought the offseason was a miracle that you got to keep Nas Reed and Randall. I didn't think that, in February, that seemed impossible to me. I didn't understand what was going to happen with the lack of a market and how all these guys are basically screwed.

1:52:06Bill Simmons:But just to keep, it seemed like you're going to keep one of those three and you kept two and three. You lost Alexander Walker, which is the easiest guy to replace. But Dillingham now has to be good next year, or at least as a bench guy. It was interesting. And I talked to Rob Morgan about this, but he, or Damore, I'm sorry. he had a point that he brought up then the summer league is they use Dillingham in a different role each game. Okay, you're the primary creator in this game. You're off ball in this game. And some of that was how the defenses were playing. But it was a really interesting, I thought his best game was when he was off ball as opposed to a primary creator.

1:52:41And I thought that was slashing and then making the extra pass. I thought what's really nice too is he can shoot off the bounce. And that's huge because of how he wants to play. He's a great oop thrower as well, which is something Ant is very weirdly iffy at. But that helps as well. It just opens up that part of the offense. He is not my cup of tea. Usually, my types of players, dribble-heavy, undersized, that's not usually what I prefer. But the thing is, is they have a good size on the team to insulate that. There's not three of these undersized guys. Everybody else is jumbo on the Timberwolves at their position.

1:53:22So I do like that fit with it. I just think he's going to take some time and he needs to play. He has to figure out what he can and can't get away with. But this is a team that wants to make a run. So that's the balance that I think Finch has to find. I wonder if he's trade bait. TJ Shannon being legit is making everything feel a lot better to me, at least. I think he's going to really be a really nice player in AEW.

1:53:46Bill Simmons:The Conley piece is the piece that, unfortunately, you're in the same boat that the Celtics were in with Horford last year where he can look good in the regular season, especially if he's only playing two games a week. But once you get in that playoff grind and you're playing every other day, and in his case, you have to go through OKC, the most frightening team of all time if you're a guard, and he's going to be 38 next year. You're just not beating OKC if he's playing big minutes. And it's terrifying when he's out there. You can feel it's NBA playoff basketball, and it's really nice to have a team to watch again throughout it.

1:54:21it's so crazy and this is what the NFL is week to week we talk about matchups but it's so crazy in the NBA when you just feel a guy getting picked on because it's so open in the NBA it's five on five so you know who's getting isolated who's getting picked who has they're making switch onto the ball what's the NFL equivalent of that running at a guy like if the guy can't hold up against the run and you just like an undersized linebacker

1:54:47Bill Simmons:and undersized the end. He's a good player like Bryce Huff or Hassan Redick. Really good against the pass, but it's like, okay, well, you're undersized. We'll just run a tight end and a right tackle at you over and over again, and we'll get six yards. That's kind of what it is. Or man-to-man coverage, and a guy just can't keep up with the other dude. That's what the NFL is, like the best coaches. It's just like you watch. Yeah, you talk about Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan do, Sean Payton, Andy Reid. and they do all the motion and stuff, all they're doing is manipulating the defense to get into a certain look so this guy is exposed or this defensive exposed.

1:55:24And it's just, you know, same thing in the NBA. You see all the picks and switches and all that. It's like, oh, they're just trying to get this guy isolated 25 feet out. So it's fun to watch. I'm trying to get more into NBA tactics. I'm picking it up a little bit.

1:55:39Bill Simmons:Well, everyone is so freaking hunt heavy that, you know, it was interesting to watch that OKC Indiana series when, you know, there was just so much movement at all times. It was like this level above hunting. It was pretty cool. And then, of course, Halberton blows out its Achilles. Game seven falls apart. All right. Great series. By the way, before we go, what's the single thing you're most excited about with this 2025 NFL season as you dive into things? What's your number one thing? Oh, man. All the second-year quarterbacks. That's cheating. but all of them because I think every story of them is going to be significant can commanders stay up top what is Caleb Williams I'm high on them what's Drake May I'm super high on him uh can Bo Nix improve can Michael Penix be anything what is J.J.

1:56:28McCarthy because I think all those teams can be can make noise like in some way shape and form so I think that's my cheating answer but yeah the second year QBs there's a changing of the guard happening right now um we're you know we're feeling it with my homes and Allen and, and, uh, and Lamar and burrow and all these guys, there's more common. We got some real talented dudes coming through and I'm excited to see them all take a leap.

1:56:50Bill Simmons:Well, and then this draft next year, um, I did my, yeah, yeah. Jesus. I did my QB rankings and I moved my homes out of the alpha spot for the first time this decade. And I put Josh Allen in there. Okay. I love Josh Allen. One guy has to get the highest thing. And I'm just like, I just think, listen, whatever. I'm not going to do a 40-minute Mahomes conversation. I just think Josh Allen's the safest bet at quarterback in the NFL right now. And I think he has to be the alpha. Right? I think there's a three-man tier with Lamar Allen and Mahomes. Yeah, I agree. But if you have to pick one. I have Mahomes in two-minute, man.

1:57:29I'm just talking regular season. Regular season. Yeah, Josh Allen's a force of nature. He has to be the regular season alpha at this point. Oh, man. Oh, man. Yeah, just because the Bills' offense is better. That's what it just looks like. He's fake. Mahomes is fake, but Josh Allen's actually fake. He's a creative player. He's what Cam Newton times two to me, because I think even just throwing-wise, he's doing even more. But yeah, no, I think Allen, to me, is the clear two. I still have Mahomes, just because of respect to what he does. But I think Allen is the clear two to me. I mean, that's why he's defending MVP.

1:58:04Bill Simmons:One of the great Allen stats was that the 14 sacks for Buffalo last year. Yeah. We should just get factored into your QB stats somehow. That was always a great Brady Manning stat. He gets kind of, I kind of have been really fighting this with Josh Allen and trying to support him here. He's become one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the NFL. And he doesn't get any credit for it because he's just such a freak athletically. but he has become one of I talk about CJ Stroud getting more control before the snap. Allen's gotten that the last two or three years and he is great at it. It's just that he doesn't get painted that way.

1:58:42Burrow kind of gets painted this way some other guys do. Allen doesn't get painted this way and he's one of the best at it. He calls out blitzes. He changes protections. I got reels of it on Twitter but it's just he has become like a complete guy outside of just the freakiness and I think that Mahomes too. All these top guys are very cerebral, but I think Allen kind of gets really underrated with that. He's one of the smartest QBs and he gets full control. And then he just is a.0001 % athlete on top of it, which also helps.

1:59:11Bill Simmons:Allen, then I had the next group. Allen, the Alpha, the Blues, Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson. I put Daniels in there. I think he has to be. I can see one more. You can see one more? So you would nudge him back? I can see one more here. He's top 12, I would say to me. I gotta see it a little bit more well this is why it's a work in progress I'm glad I asked you yeah no and then I'm high on Jordan Love more than most people I think his he played banged up last year he doesn't take sacks he can hit all that high throws I'm high on the Packers too and I never even talked about him because I really like Love and some of the other stuff they did so I'm super high on him I had some other guys pretty high I had Stroud at 10 because I think he's gonna have a decent even with the O-line stuff.

1:59:56I just think they're going to give more control, and I like the receivers. I like the couple guys they draft and everything. Are you pro, anti, or in the middle with Purdy? I'm in the middle. I've said I'm brocnostic. I've been agnostic. But I like him more than I used to. Last year was really cool to watch him. They gave him more to do. They don't use play action as much, and they let him just truly drop back and be a quarterback and go and progress. and it's kind of cool to watch them kind of give him the reins to do it. So like I've become more, and he can create a little bit. He's a really good thrower on the move.

2:00:31I used to be kind of lukewarm on Purdy, but now I like him. Like I like like him. I enjoy watching him because he's got some balls on him too.

2:00:39Bill Simmons:25 to one for MVP. Your guy Jordan Love is 25 to one as well. Okay. Yeah. But odds are it's going to be Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Just put those bets in now. All right, Nate Tice, go back to your newborn baby and your other child and your wife and Tim Woolf's Summer League highlights. Thank you. Anthony Edwards is staying. Kevin Garnett's coming back. Football's coming. Things are looking up. Great to see you. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for having me. Always fun. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Nate Tice and Matt Bellany. Don't forget, New Rewatchables is coming on Monday.

2:01:14Bill Simmons:Species, a movie that you can find on streaming services. We're going to really ramp up in August. I'm just warning you now. I'm getting all my little dopey movies I wanted to do out of the way in July because it's time to do it. But we have some really good ones coming up as we head to 400 movies on the rewatchables. Yeah, I'm getting close. I'm going to be back again on Sunday, a week from now. So we are sticking to the Sunday schedule. And that's the plan. And I'll see you in a week. Enjoy the week.

2:01:51I don't have feelings with him

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