The Fall of the Chiefs (Maybe), SGA Superstar Tips, the Wildes-Greeny Feud, and Week 15 Picks

22:13Bill Simmons:Rich talked about this on Monday on the pod about there's these young, long athletic teams that are just kryptonite for this Lakers group. And they got killed by Atlanta earlier in the year, San Antonio yesterday. There's a certain type of team with a ton of energy that I think is going to be a problem for them on the schedule. But they're still a 50-win team. I guess the thing I want to figure out that's how you balance with now that LeBron is back and you saw Reeves kind of fall back a little bit and suddenly doesn't look like Reeves anymore. Can you have those three guys? How do you make all three of them happy and get the right amount of production out of all three?

22:52Bill Simmons:And then how do you hide them on defense? So listen, there is no hide. The defensive piece is, I don't think there's a fix to. Like it's just, they're just going to be a bad defensive team for the most part. Like I think they could, you could add a piece, But that team's strength has to be, we're going to score 130. We're just going to be a monster offensively. I think that when LeBron first came back, Austin was still crushing. And the night LeBron's streak ended, Austin had 40. I do, and I know you probably think I'm biased on this, I do think LeBron at this point, especially because the streak's over, is to a degree post stats in what he cares about.

23:39Like he has all the records. There's nobody, nobody, there's nothing else for him to chase in that. And because he missed all those games, because I do think he cares about all NBA stuff, but he's going to be ineligible.

23:52Bill Simmons:He wasn't going to make it anyway. Right. Well, I mean, again, he made it last year, but this year he's going to be ineligible. It wasn't happening. Right. And so I do think he's going to be fine being like jack of all trades guy. And I think Reeves is, I think Reeves and Luka are really good offensive, really good one-two punch with LeBron filling in the blanks. I just don't know how they can guard anybody. I just don't know how they, and it feels like since Bron's been there, they haven't been able to guard point guards. And the year they had AD and Dwight and won the title, they were just so big, it was fine.

24:29But who can guard point guards on that team? I don't know.

24:32Bill Simmons:And you're relying on DeAndre Ayton where it's gone pretty well for six weeks. Shockingly well. Yeah, but we know. We know what lurks inside. Yeah, I'm looking at my pyramid right now. And if SGA went back-to-back, let's say they have a 25-game winning streak. They win between 70 and 74 games. Who knows? It would be hard not to have him in the 20s. With the resume he's had. With all the All-NBAs in a row. He would have to go down as the logical successor to the two-guard. Basically, the best guard alive championship belt goes to him for four years here. So can we... Because I think our top 20 would...

25:19Maybe not... Obviously, the order is going to be different. But if I may just real quick, just... Bron, Kareem, Michaels, everyone's top three. That's in stone.

25:30Bill Simmons:It's an interesting order. Well, that's the order I have it in, but I don't want to argue with you about that right now. That's fine. Magic. I would have Russell three, personally. Oh, above Kareem? Yeah, I go MJ, LeBron, Russell, Kareem. Okay. You know why? Because every time Bill Russell played in the playoffs, he won, except for the time he had like a high ankle sprain when his foot almost came off his body. Or the other time, Will killed him in 67, but he was 11 for 13. But so just that. No, that's that's totally fair. And I'm just trying to like reverse engineer SGA because those four have to start.

26:05Bill Simmons:Yeah, those have to start with those four. And magic and I magic will Duncan Kobe. By the way, you're 100 percent right on Duncan over Kobe. It's the most frustrating argument, but that's fine. Bird bird after Kobe. Then is where at nine or that's nine at 10 is where it starts to be tricky because it's like a keem. Shaq, Steph, Joker, only one of those guys is a top 10 all-time player. Everyone can stop with the Giannis, Durant, Dr. J, who I love, Moses, who's the most underrated guy. We just told you nine. I don't know who you have highest of those four. I would assume you have Steph higher than Shaq and Akeem, I struggle with that.

26:55I think Akeem's become wildly underrated.

26:57Bill Simmons:He has. But again, SGA's not in that area. So let's just agree those are the next four. So 10, 11, 12, 13. My list is a little different. Tell me. I'm having a lot of trouble. Joker, how it plays out in the playoffs here, but just what he's done offensively now for seven years that has no parallel to basically anything in NBA history. it's tough not to not to nudge him toward that top 10 but so you're right but and this is like to me he's near wilt at this point but I do think he needs another title yeah but you don't have him ahead of Larry Bird no but I do think Curry versus Kobe is a better argument that people want to give a credit for I mean Kobe only won one MVP and he only he won the two on his own Steph won four he won the one on his own And then the other three, I guess you could give him 15.

27:50Bill Simmons:But I just think it's a better argument than people give it credit for. Where Kobe wins it, I think, if you're going to give it to Kobe, is all of those all-NBAs and everything else he did. Basically, after 08, he has this whole second prime that Steph hasn't really totally had. Listen, you and I are in lockstep on the, I think, for the good and bad about Kobe. Like what is true on the con side of the ledger is he has a couple grisly finals and they're not always, and it's not just when he was a kid. His finals against the Pistons was a disaster. And it's not just the three-year smack dab in the middle of your prime where you miss the playoffs and then don't get out of round one.

28:40but the blowing a 3-1 lead in round one in game seven, second half quitting is like a real thing. Now he overcame it because of those titles but that is, does that offset enough of he was such a better defensive player than Steph? Like, you know, but it is, that's a fair argument.

29:01Bill Simmons:But you could argue with the, I mean, the case for Steph if you're going to go deep on this is the shooting and the threat of his shooting and how it affected the court and how the defense almost like having Tyreek Hill on offense where the whole secondary has to shift toward him and it opens up all this other stuff. That would be part of the Curry case. And also like he was an amazing teammate, you know, and Kobe was up and down on that stuff. I think even the biggest Kobe fans would admit that. He had some rocky years there. Yeah. Yeah. To say the least. Rocky years. I think that's better. He had his coach writing an entire book about what a pain in the ass he was.

29:37Bill Simmons:Like these are things that happen. But if so, but if those are the 13 and then we, to me, we get to the Dr. J, Moses, Durant, Giannis, Isaiah, Thomas, Eric. I have the 15. Okay. And then we move into like this Oscar, KD, Pavlicek, Giannis, Dirk, Elgin, Julius, Pettit, Garnett, Malone, Barkley. So, right. SGA now has a chance to kind of sniff that. So that's where I was trying to get to. Like, who is the best player that with a title you would have SGA ahead of? So like I'm thinking in my head, I'm like, with a title, do I have SGA ahead of John Stockton? Yes. With a title, do I have SGA ahead of David Robinson?

30:28Bill Simmons:Well, yeah, you're talking like the Jason Kidd, Nash. There's a couple of those people that just never won. Chris Paul, John Stockton. the other question you have to ask is alright let's say SGA's career ends this year I did this exercise in my book would you rather have the 8 SGA years you get all of them you could start a franchise with that or you could have the 20 years of Chris Paul what gives you a better chance to win the title Chris Paul but I'm probably I'm not quite Rosillo when it comes to Chris Paul but I'm a big Chris Paul fan right but I'm saying your goal is to win the title and you could have the eight years SGA just had or Chris Paul's entire career and that's your only goal, what's the answer?

31:13Bill Simmons:I think there's a real case for SGA. It's like at the peak SGA, if I could put a good team around him, I could win a title. So here's the thing. So that's the part that I'm not sure about in this regard. You do this all the time. I forget who you were just talking about it with. Like if you do their career a hundred times, this was like a one percentile outcome. Like they got stone unlucky. Well, LeBron's a good example of that. If who was the team that if if the lottery that year, what was it? With Jerry West. He goes to Memphis with Jerry West with the guys they had already. Yeah. Pal Gasol.

31:55Is he like still there?

31:56Bill Simmons:Is it like they win like nine titles? You know? But so my question is this with SGA, is this OKC operation a 98th percentile outcome for him? Yeah, but OK, this is a good exercise because you could say that about Duncan went to the best possible San Antonio team. The one year they sucked were Robinson's there and a good infrastructure. You could say about Bird. Bird goes to a team with a bunch of Hall of Famers and a great GM and they make better trades. Definitely say it about Magic. Can't say it about Jordan. Can't say it about Jordan. Can't say it about LeBron. Can't say it about Kareem in Milwaukee.

32:35Bill Simmons:You can say it about Russell because he goes to a team with Kuzi and a whole bunch of other people in Red Arbac. You can say it about Kobe because Shaq's there, and so he gets the formative stuff. Kobe had one of the best situations of any of them. He goes to a team that has the dominant center that, you know, other than Hakima that decade. You, you, this is one for your guy. You cannot say it about Steph. That franchise was a, you wrote a whole thing about what a disaster the Warriors were pre-Step. So the only thing for him that it actually might have been a good franchise is all the issues he had with his feet and ankles.

33:13Bill Simmons:Oh. And whether he was with, like, let's say he goes to the Timberwolves with David Conrad and Timberwolves and a shitty owner. And it's like, oh man, Steph's career is over now. Like they wouldn't have come up with one thing to save his anything. And I do think the Warriors get credit for that or wherever being in California. that's a really, I hadn't thought about that, but that's a really good point. The like, his career, he there's in the sixties, his career is over in four years in the sixties, bro. In the nineties. We're in Converse. He's done. It's, we don't even know who he is. Um, yeah.

33:45I mean, I think that we don't even have to go back that far. I think most like in the, yes. So that, so that is like, So for SGA, was this the ideal situation or am I underselling him by saying that?

34:03Bill Simmons:You're underselling one thing. He's lights out at the end of these games to the point that he's fucking Michael Myers. It's like, oh, it's a three-point game with four minutes left. You know what's going to happen. And he's got so much confidence. I also think he's been so good that now I find myself comparing other players to things he does. like he's reached that last level. Like I was watching Dylan Harper the other day. Dylan Harper's footwork is so good for like however old he is. But now you're comparing him to SGA. And I'm like, oh, his footwork's like Shea. Like I would have said Kobe three years ago.

34:34Bill Simmons:And now Shea is the default footwork guy. I think the one thing that he doesn't have that I don't know how to explain this or assess it is there's a charisma piece that's not totally there that Kobe always had, that MJ always had. and SGA, there's like a small piece missing with how the fans resonate with him when they're at the game. And I don't know, you can't fix that. Right, and there is, in that same bucket is, every legendary scoring guard, except for Iverson, has been above the rim. And he's not. Right, that's a good point. And so, like, and he's tall enough, obviously. You know, Iverson literally wasn't tall enough.

35:19And the other guys who are, I guess Steph is a scoring guard, but Steph is a different style of player. All those other guys had a, it's why people have so long tried to force this Anthony Edwards face of the league thing. When it's all that means is this guy fucking dunks on people and we like it. Like that's like, it's just that that is like a fun piece of it. I do have I don't know what you have on the docket I want to make sure can we take a break? that was a good segment

35:53Bill Simmons:I thought we did a good first segment I'd give it a B plus Bill

36:01Bill Simmons:alright we're coming back the Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Friday night just got a little louder because NBA happy hour is happening on FanDuel every Friday from 6 to 7.30pm Eastern. Fando's got limited time specials to pregame the weekend. That's one of my daughter's phrases, the pregame. Boost, bonus, surprises, all live in the app. And by the way, in the app, after I pushed and prided them, they added a bunch of Oklahoma City couple of futures, including could they reach 29 straight consecutive games and beat Golden State 28? That's like plus 450. Could they get to 34 plus consecutive games, which would be a new NBA record, 12 to 1.

36:44Bill Simmons:I would not recommend that one. That's too hard. The 28 is interesting, though. I still the 74 plus regular season wins. That has dropped ever since we started talking about it on the BS pod. That is plus 235 now. So I'm glad people listen to me out there. NBA Happy Hour every Friday from 6 to 7.30 Eastern. Only on FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA. Visit FanDuel.com slash BS to get started. Must be 21 plus presidents in select states or 18 plus in president in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming. Opt-in required. Rewards are non-withdrawable. Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements, and max wager amount.

37:24Bill Simmons:See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Get in problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Amazon. on. Say hello to the all new Alexa Plus. See how Alexa can do so much more for you. Need tickets to the finals, rides to get there, and a place to eat around the stadium? Help organize your schedule so you never miss a kickoff? I actually need that. Or just craving your game day spread? I'm always craving it. Just sit back, relax, and talk naturally. I didn't even talk naturally right there. Just sit back, relax, and talk naturally.

38:04Bill Simmons:I did it. Alexa's on it. It learns your style, anticipates what's next and makes it happen across echo and fire tv and much more learn more at amazon.com slash new alexa can city chiefs six and seven house and i are gonna do ringer 107 picks in a second we're definitely taking the chiefs i think they're gonna win this week which will make them seven and seven um i have a whole i don't know whether to give you the floor first or give... Actually, let me go. You play off me on this one. Sure. I'll try to get this to an A -. What really happened to the Chiefs? My top 10 favorite excuses I've heard from Chiefs fans.

38:51Bill Simmons:In no particular order. Okay. Kelsey got old. I mean, that objectively did happen. That does not explain this. That objectively is true. Alright, so we're one for one with a good excuse. I don't consider that an excuse. That did happen, but that doesn't explain this. So yes, he got old. That shouldn't have caused this. Go ahead. Too much physical wear and tear on Mahomes because of his O-line and the fact that he's scrambling so much and that's why he can no longer connect really on any deep balls at all. I don't buy that. That feels like an excuse. Okay. Mahomes can't connect on deep balls anymore.

39:35Bill Simmons:They're too easy to stop offensively. You don't have to worry about the deep. That is a legitimate, fair criticism this year in particular. And last year. Right. I was going to say, I know the numbers were bad last year. I think last year, there was more of an explanation for it of people. the surrounding supporting cast preventing it. This year, the offensive line up until this past week has been healthy and good. You have the right receivers out there. No, that's a fair, that is a fair check against him this season, I think. This is a good one. I actually went on Chiefs Reddit to see if I could find any Chiefs excuses.

40:24Bill Simmons:I saw this one. From 2018 to 2024, they played 21 playoff games. Yeah. Almost more than an entire season. They averaged 20 games a year for seven years. And one of the guys on this Chiefs Reddit thread said they need a break. They need a chance to refuel and reset. It was the thing that was written. Listen, so here's the thing. And there is a reason that only one team ever has had a better, had a run like this of seasons this long that went on longer. And it only went on one season longer. The Patriots from 11 to 18. So I do think that that is definitionally true. that go like, listen, there is also a reason that no team, only one team ever has been to four straight Super Bowls.

41:25I think it's, you know, maybe less the full seven years and more the last three years and the chase of the three-peat and the stomach punch of the way that ended that I think really has had a knock-on effect this season. I do believe that. Go ahead.

41:43Bill Simmons:I actually believe in that theory because I think that was, I watched it happen with the Warriors. last decade where they go into the five finals in a row. And I just felt like they're running fumes. I watched it happen with my Patriots. You know, they were especially like that, uh, even the Oh three Oh four. And when they had the streak and then Oh five, that was a lot of the same guys. And so here's Denver. So I, do you want to keep going through it or can I now throw? I have a couple more just quickly. And then I want to revisit it. Salary cap, just super hard. Once my home becomes an expensive franchise guy, That's an excuse.

42:20Everybody's got expensive quarterback. That's good. Stop it.

42:23Bill Simmons:Yeah, and plus the league now, I don't even know what the salary cap is. You just move money forward. It's like a podsy scheme. Taylor Swift. That's not. Stop it. That's not it. Cardi B has been great for your Patriots.

42:38Bill Simmons:Karma. For what? Just because some of the guys you've signed over the years. Maybe the karma. Yeah, I don't know. Can I tell you something? That is rich. coming from a Pats fan who's... I don't want to hear about... We had a murdering tight end. I don't want to hear about karma. Arrogance. They greenlit a documentary and the run wasn't even over yet. This giant documentary about how they're going to win three in a row. The documentary was not about how they're going to win three in a row. It was about the quest. The documentary was great. I don't know. Last one. Andy Reid got old.

43:21This has not been Andy's best season.

43:23Bill Simmons:I don't think it has been Andy's best season at all. And no, I think. And that fourth and one call was the worst call of. They were going to win that Texans game. The Texans were done scoring. All you had to do is just keep punting it to them. And they were going to give you one. They were going to win. Okay, so now let me address some of the Chiefs darts you have thrown, and then we'll get to Patrick. This is just rhetoric I'm hearing about the three-time Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Okay, so first of all, some very odd and scary, for me at least, similarities. priorities. Tom Brady, in his seventh year as a starter, stepped on the field in the Super Bowl, trying to win his fourth ring, knowing if we win this game, I am considered the undisputed goat, and this is considered the greatest team of all time.

44:32He lost the game in heartbreaking fashion and then did not win a playoff game, one game, the next three years. Now, first year of that was tragic. You know, week one, he gets his knee blown out. But year seven, going by your guy. I know, by Bernard Pollard. I know. We call him Bernard Carmel Pollard.

44:55Bill Simmons:We use his middle name like he's an assassin. Year seven, going for ring four, trying to be the undisputed greatest team ever. Patrick in year seven was playing for ring four, trying to become the greatest undisputed greatest team ever. If they pull off the three P they lose that Superbowl in very different fashion. He doesn't get hurt the next year, but it looks like they're going to be out of the tournament in year eight. And that scares me about because you guys had a retool in the late 2000 aughts. And so like that, the first seven years, Brady to Tom or Brady to Tom, Brady to Patrick, the, the, the way they played and the numbers are different, but the overall like ledger is very similar.

45:44Um, and then Tom had, you know, a little gap. And then what I think is the greatest run in NFL history, 11 to 18. I, I, so I, so this is the question.

45:58Bill Simmons:We almost had four retools, if you look at it. And I think you're on your second one right now. Yes. Because I think the Tyreek trade. The Tyreek trade was a retool that fucking worked great. Mahomes won MVP the first year, and they won the Super Bowl. Then they won Super Bowl again. But now, you're right. This is a second retool. Go ahead. Sorry. Yeah, we had the retool for the Pats was when they were like, hey, we have Tom Brady. Maybe we should get him some awesome receivers. And they got Welker Moss. that led basically to the second half of that decade. And then when they built around the tight ends, that was the third retool.

46:33Bill Simmons:And then the middle of the 2010s was, I don't know what was going on. We were just winning. So here's my, so here's, and this is not a rhetorical question. It's not a smart-ass question. Do you consider the Pats one sustained dynasty or two separate dynasties? I think the Brady-Belichick together, it has to be considered one giant thing. Okay. But I think all the Pats fans think of it as like these little different eras. They did it with defense the first three Super Bowls. That's how they won. Brady was the third most important piece of it. So you're getting me close to where one of the things I want to get to.

47:15But I think you can make the argument you made. It's the same coach, same quarterback. It's one dynasty. The other one is there was 0-1 to 0-4, the defense-led Adam Vinatieri clutch portion of it.

47:28Bill Simmons:Belichick. That was really like Belichick, but by far running circles around everybody else. And then there is 2011 to 2018, when you make five Super Bowls, win three, peak Tom, and every single year you played in the conference championship game. Like, you know what I mean? And that was the apex to me of Brady. And so since I view it as two separate things, I get very mad. Like, it's irrational how mad I get when you just flippantly call the Chiefs a mini dynasty. I'm like, if we're a mini dynasty, then everything but your stupid Patriots is a mini dynasty. Then the damn Cowboys were a mini dynasty.

48:13that if five Super Bowls in six years with three rings isn't a full-grown adult dynasty, then we're never having another one because I don't think we're going to get 20 years of the same coaching quarterback.

48:24Bill Simmons:It's a really good note, and it was a little petty on my side. Thank you. Wow. Wow. Thank you. Now, can I do the Patrick Mahomes still one day could be the GOAT argument? In Dallas or Kansas City? Oh, that was Rich. Why did Rich do that? Why is Rich trading him to the Cowboys? I didn't understand that. I didn't either. I don't know. Maybe he had inside info. So what works, do we agree that, because you keep talking about Patrick missing the playoffs as this stinging goat indictment. It's not great. Right. But totally not caring that Tom missed the playoffs in a second. after they won the first Super Bowl.

49:13With the argument being he wasn't Tom yet, right? Is that driver right?

49:16Bill Simmons:They still went 9-7 in the last game of the year. It's a really weird, if you go back and look at the standings, it was like all these 9-7, three-way ties. So they played the last game. They won the last game of the year and needed some help and didn't get it. By the way, that might be exact. If you're right that the Chiefs are going to beat the Chargers, they have the Titans and the Raiders still on the schedule. that'll be nine wins no matter whether they beat Denver or not. Like, they could be very similar to that. But the argument that Wilds makes, and I've heard other people make, is, yeah, but that's unfair to use against Tom because he wasn't Tom Brady yet, which I acknowledge and I understand, but he gets full credit for the Super Bowls.

50:01So we shouldn't, when we're talking about, like, the GOAT debate, say because Patrick was instantly excellent, that hurts him in the case that he's better than Tom Brady one day. Like that logically I don't follow.

50:15Bill Simmons:Well, can we at least agree on this? Heading into that Philly game, in the air was like, if he does this, it's kind of a wrap. And Max and I talked about that last week when we were in the pod about these moments people have sometimes in their career, these little sliding door things where it's like, wow, this happens. Yeah. It's undeniable. That's why I was on Twitter today and somebody just put on the last 45 seconds of game six of 98 with Jordan in Utah. Just that whole sequence of the 50 seconds, which every time I'm watching, it's so mesmerizing to just watch this guy levitate above the game, basically.

50:53Bill Simmons:It's just still the greatest thing I've ever seen an athlete do. And it's like, all right, what happens if he misses the last shot and they lose in seven? And it's just like the sliding doors of that, we're talking about him differently. And I think that was, if Mahomes had beaten that crazy Philly team that was just better than them and more talented than them, if he'd done that, it would have been a wrap. I still don't think you would have said he was the GOAT yet. I think you would have been like, well, Brady beat him twice in the playoffs. I would have said we had co-GOATs. I think there would have been a co-GOAT possibility at that point.

51:25So I agree with you that in that moment, if it's Polly Market, going into that game, his chance of being known, ending his career as the GOAT, was at like 76%. And after the game, it dropped to like 49%. And as we sit here today, it feels like it's around 30%. 30.

51:52Bill Simmons:But the difference between the two guys is that it feels like Mahomes was just better like three years ago. Just from the eye test. It just feels like he moved better. He threw the ball better. Everything. Brady got better in his 30s. He just did. By the time we got to the Seattle Super Bowl, if you go back and you look at those last two drives, who he's playing with, it's out of control. But it's just like he couldn't have done that 10 years earlier, I don't think. He definitely got better in the 2010s. So I don't know. It's the Mahomes thing is so weird because it's hard to like really pin down what we're saying because so they, they trade Tyree kill and that next year, they're the highest scoring team in the league.

52:38He has more yards than any quarterback history and was unbelievable, but it was all dink and dunk stuff. It wasn't deep bombs. It was just wildly efficient. They win the Super Bowl. The next year, everyone's like, this is the worst Chiefs team yet. They actually have to go on the road in the playoffs. And in those playoffs, he has one of the greatest individual playoff runs in the history of the sport. Going to Buffalo, going to Baltimore, coming back 10 down in the Super Bowl. And it's like, holy shit, why would we doubt this guy again? Last year...

53:14Bill Simmons:I mean, to the point that it was impossible to bet on him the next year. Correct. It was, I'm doing playoff manifesto and I'm just throwing out rules because I just don't want to bet against my homes. And then last year was super weird because he had these insane fourth quarter, third down clutch numbers, but every other number, it's like, it's worse than, uh, not, uh, Trevor Lawrence or something like his stats last year were not good. but the team won every game and he was everybody who watched the chiefs is like, yeah, Patrick's the reason why. And so, but the numbers didn't back that up. So here's, so I don't know where, I also don't know where actually, like if he has a season of failure, which this could be what that does to him moving forward, right?

54:08In a positive way, I would think.

54:10Bill Simmons:well is there the rocky four log cabin scenario correct where you you need to almost go to russia and rebuild it and you're just going with duke and your wife and the whole thing and that's it you're just you're rebuilding it so i think because i think he's wired that way i and then i because i do have one other chief's question i just want to finish this mahomes thought on the goat thing. But Mahomes could still be the goat argument boils down to this. I think everyone agrees that through eight seasons, which is where Patrick is right now, his career outstrips Tom's through eight years. They both had three rings, but Patrick's been to five Super Bowls.

54:55Tom had been to four. Patrick has two MVPs. Tom has one. So up to this point in his career, he's ahead of the pace.

55:03Bill Simmons:Yeah, I was thinking about when I was growing up, there was like Marino, Elway, Montana, people like that. The only one that you could put against his first eight years is Montana, who I don't even think started for two years. Correct. That's the problem. But Montana would be the doppelganger for the first eight years, and he's better than Montana because he played the whole time. Exactly. He missed the first year. That's it. And so the problem for Patrick is this, if I'm being fair, He needs to be way ahead of Brady's pace at 10 years and 12 years because the odds that he's going to play 20, like after year eight, Tom played 15 more years.

55:44Bill Simmons:I know. I know. The part is he's not, he can't just be like still like, oh, mile marker 10 slightly ahead because he's probably not going to run as long of a race. And Tom does have the playoff head-to-head, which sucks for me. It's great for you. But that's a hard one. So I just don't like when you say he's eliminated. Like it's out because of this, because it really wounds me. Now, can I ask you one other thing about the Chiefs? I'm sorry, but he's eliminated. He's not eliminated. Brady never played a meaningless NFL game. He never started a meaningless NFL game. Patrick has not yet either. He has not yet.

56:27Bill Simmons:The best thing you have going for you is that Amazon bought that Christmas night game. There might be some ref greasing. Bezos. We need that game. So you think the Chiefs are going to beat the Chargers this weekend? I still can't believe the Chargers beat the Eagles. Nobody. I don't understand what happened in that game. The Chargers can't block. They can't really do anything. And I don't understand how they have nine wins. So I don't know if you have really run this scenario full in your head, but here is, and again, the Chiefs have been bad. Is this a Chiefs going 10-7 making the playoff scenario?

57:11It's very simple.

57:13Bill Simmons:Okay. I'm excited. The hard part is they have to go 10-7, which means they have to win the Charger game and beat Denver in Kansas City, by the way, on Christmas. But their other two games are Titans-Raiders. So if we assume they're going 10-7, two other things need to happen. The Phillip Rivers Colts need to lose at least twice. Fucking done. They play the Seahawks, the Niners, the Jags, and the Texans. They are not going 3-1. They are not. I agree with that. By the way, the Chiefs on Fandor plus 520 to make the playoffs, which I thought was high. Well, so this is what I'm saying. So if we eliminate the Colts, because the Colts would have to go 3-1 to match.

58:00Bill Simmons:I'm good with eliminating the Colts. And we are both saying we think the Chargers are going to lose this weekend to the Chiefs. For the Chiefs to make it at 10-7, they need the Chargers to lose in Week 18 to Denver. They have to lose that game, which Denver is likely. Which Denver might need because they're trying to get the one seed. Yeah, they might care. to your pats and then they just need the chargers to lose one of at dallas or home for houston but don't they have to finish above the chargers no so this is what people have they split the the first tiebreaker is head-to-head the second tiebreaker is divisional record they would be tied in both of those the third tiebreaker if you're in the same division is not conference record.

58:51It's common opponent. And the Chiefs have that. So at 10 and 7 with the Chargers.

58:57Bill Simmons:I mean, this seems doable. You've kind of talked me into this. This would be amazing. Again, if the Chargers go 10 and 7, but beat Denver, meaning they lose Kansas City, Texas, Dallas, then they're out. How are the Chargers going to beat Houston? Exactly. And if the Broncos need the game, how are they going to win in Denver? So you need the Patriots to beat Buffalo this weekend too. I need the Patriots to keep winning. Because I need Denver to be playing for something. You need Week 18 to matter for both sides. I need Week 18 Denver, and then we're alive. That's an interesting case. I'm telling you.

59:33Bill Simmons:And then maybe Mahomes doesn't get traded to Dallas. Okay. And then maybe. Wait, can I pick a beef on one of your takes? It's your show. You can do whatever you want. Your whole. I saw what you. I saw the pox you're trying to put on Josh Allen. What do you mean? I saw what you did. I saw the clip came across my Twitter feed where you did the whole, it is all set up for Josh Allen. It's what it is. He has to win now. He does. This is lined up. If he doesn't win, it's a huge failure. I saw the whole thing you did. I didn't say it's a huge failure. It was a good take, but it was ridiculous. What do you mean, Bill?

1:00:13Bill Simmons:Because the Bills aren't that good. Their top receiver catch output last week was two. They don't have a receiver who can catch the ball nine yards past the first down line. They're doing everything dink and dunk like you guys a couple years ago. This is all Allen. If he gets into the Super Bowl with the offense he has, this would be a miracle. You're 100 % right. It's all Allen. And as much as I, to the marrow of my bones, hated and texted mutual friends about your preseason Josh Allen take, it has aged well. And so I give you credit there. Aged well is kind of an understatement. It's aged amazingly.

1:00:56Bill Simmons:I put Josh over Mahomes and it was the right call. I didn't feel great about it, but that's how I felt. So here's what my take actually is. It has nothing to do with how good the team is. It is. It's actually kind of a Patriot company. If you're Josh Allen. Yeah. And you have been a legitimate contender for the last five years. And in those five years, you have been bounced in the playoffs four times by Patrick Mahomes and once by Joe Burrow. And in those years played good, close, but you have won playoff games against Lamar. And you have had a cakewalk of a division. where every year it's like, we're going to have a home playoff game.

1:01:39Until this year. Yeah. Right. And you go through that entire stretch, and you don't make a Super Bowl. And then you have a season where Patrick, Josh, and Lamar, I'm sorry, Patrick, Joe, and Lamar, are not even in the playoffs. And by the way, And Lamar's been replaced by an alien. Right. I want to ask you about that. and you know, oh shit, the division is about to be really hard because Drake May's awesome. You can't have a half decade of a terrible division and not break through and then a playoff run where you're the only in their prime Hall of Fame quarterback in the whole tournament on your side of the bracket.

1:02:27Bill Simmons:Yeah, but what do you do with the 13 seconds game in this argument though? No, it's... He did everything he should have done in that game, and his coach screwed it up. And the special teams, everything. That's, like, terrible by him. I totally agree with you. I think you're mis... And it probably means... No, I see what you mean. On paper, if he doesn't make it, as the years pass, people will look at it and not remember all the details and all the little things that happened. And it's not even about, like... I want to make it clear. I'm not saying, like, oh, it's a choke job if he doesn't make it or he didn't make it in the past because 13th second game, he was almost at third home.

1:03:07Bill Simmons:You framed it like it was a little bit of a choke job. No, what I'm saying is a missed. It's a negative framing. There was negative framing you did. It is a missed opportunity. He'll never have a playoffs again, I imagine, that Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes are not in. And this is likely the worst Drake May will ever be in his career. Well, and also, listen, I love this Pats team. There's 19 different signs that they might have overachieved, that this is peak Pats right now. Then you look at Denver, a team I don't think anyone's afraid of with a quarterback I don't trust at all. So you agree with me?

1:03:46Bill Simmons:I'm going to get to January. The Bills got to get to the Super Bowl. But I don't like teams that don't get explosive plays. Basically, he's the explosive play. Yeah. But their receivers, I think, are the worst it's ever been. Can I ask you about Lamar real quick? Or do you not want to? No, ask me. Can somebody please report on whether or not Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh even talk to each other? This is the weirdest fucking story in the league. So it is every time Lamar has suffered an injury in his career, John Harbaugh has had one timeline about when Lamar is going to play. And Lamar has had a totally different one.

1:04:34We were told three years ago, oh, it's nothing close to season ending. It was season ending. The next year we were told we think he's going to be back in a week. It was season ending. This year, he was asked about why they had optimism after the bye. He's like, well, we're going to have our quarterback back. The game comes after the bye. The quarterback is not back. He then finally does come back. And he has different random injuries that cause him to miss a day of practice. and, by the way, plays the worst football of his career while missing a day of practice each week. The worst football of his career.

1:05:10Bill Simmons:Did you see the next-gen stats? His MPH is way down this year. Yeah, he doesn't really. He's down to like 12 miles an hour now. No, seriously, I read that today. He's went from like 16 to 12. By the way, passes the eye test. He doesn't run, and he's not as fast. I think I could run 12. 12? That's a five-minute mile. I think if I had a lot of coffee and maybe some cocaine. I think I can run 12. But to finish it, this week, Lamar doesn't practice Wednesday. It's listed as no injury. Harbaugh, when he's asked about it, says, yeah, you know, I think when a player says they need the day, you have to, you know, you trust the player.

1:05:51Doesn't cover for him at all. Meanwhile.

1:05:53Bill Simmons:So you feel like we're in Kauai territory here a little bit, like 2018 Spurs-Kauai kind of area? I think it's, I, I, Harbaugh over the last couple, remember like two off seasons ago, he's like, we believe Lamar Jackson is going to be not the best quarterback in the league, the greatest quarterback in the history of football. And then he, the following off season. So last off season, he was like, I want to make this clear, forget running as a pure passer of the football. Lamar's the greatest passer the league's ever seen. Like, eh, Doth protests too much, buddy. I think you're trying to fix a relationship, and Lamar, I think, is over it all.

1:06:30I think Lamar's checked out.

1:06:32Bill Simmons:I would bet if we were doing the fantasy draft of coaches we don't think we'll be coaching the same team next year, I think he would be a very high pick, Harbaugh. And by the way, Sean McDermott, if this goes badly, I think he's on the list. I think Sirianni's on the list. It's funny. There's a lot of high-profile coaches that, who knows? Would you do this? Who says no to this trade? Because you saw Joe Burrow say, if I keep playing, I need to be happy again. So when House and I do picks, they said, no, no, I'm just saying, this made me want to take the Ravens, even though I don't even think they're good.

1:07:14Bill Simmons:It seemed like Burrow was having an existential crisis at the podium. And I don't blame them because they spend the least amount of money of anyone other than maybe the Pats. they never are able to block I don't know I wouldn't want to be Joe Burrow in Cincinnati I'd want to go somewhere else so I have two are you talking Burrow for Lamar just straight up like NBA style like Jason Kidd, Stephon Marbury style I don't think they would do it within the division and I think they're just going to fire the coach in Baltimore and keep the quarterback Joe Burrow four Jalen Hurts and one first round pick

1:07:57Bill Simmons:I'd want more if I was Cincinnati considering people are wearing Tanner McKee jerseys in Philadelphia right now that's fair but that's at least we're at least having the conversation right like it's a hey jail is going to be available you can't even make football trades like that which is by the way what the NBA has turned into now where this these stupid aprons have ruined all the like fun trades we can make but so Joe Burrow If Joe Burrow went to the Eagles, then God help us. He's got these two receivers. Like, you know, the other, the other, the two other ones that involve draft picks are, because in the NFL, the most first round picks you can trade is three, unless you have extra picks one year.

1:08:40You know who has an extra pick?

1:08:42Bill Simmons:You mean like the Rams? The Rams. If Stafford retires, I could see the Rams trading four firsts and three seconds for Joe Burrow. Well, the Rams got that Falcons pick. That's what I'm saying. For the 26 last year, that's now like the eighth pick in the draft. So I think the Rams would trade four first for Joe Burrow. And I think the Vikings would trade three first, three seconds, and J.J. McCarthy and Joe Burrow gets to be with college teammate Justin Jefferson. I just know he's not happy. It's year six, and he's saying, if I want to keep playing. That's terrifying. I got to say, if I was a QB trying to look at my next 10 years, I would want to be warm weather indoors.

1:09:21Bill Simmons:I think Brady was an anomaly. I think Mahomes has been an anomaly, but just in general, especially when you get to these December, January games, like T Higgins, his head hits that, like he's just a concussion. Like you're playing on a concrete parking lot, basically. I have some quick questions before we go, because I already kept you for an hour. Why do you think Kevin Wilds hates conflict so much? Do you think it's like a childhood thing? like what what is it with him why does he just always want everyone to get along at all times and then he's on the sports take show so i i one time in passing described our job as competitive sports debate and wilds had like a record scratch full stop moment where he's like hold on to be clear that is not what we do i'm like yes it is and he's like no it's just a good hang we're having fun trying to do different jobs bro having fun talking about sports yeah in a polite way chatting now i don't know if you've noticed a new wilds has emerged well confident patriots wild yeah i i noticed the as the chiefs have fallen and the patriots have risen we are really getting you know peacocking Kevin Wilds as he regularly says right before the show starts well because Bruiser Ravens guy I'm the Chiefs I guess I'm going to have to carry the show again today boys right as the only yeah only team that's good alright what else with the Wilds thing so I mean I've known Wilds for almost 20 years you did this whole thing about media rivals, like your weight class, your generation of sports media rivals.

1:11:12Bill Simmons:When did you do that? So I did that. And, you know, that was the first domino in a thing that landed yesterday. Oh, the Pablo thing. Yeah. You talked about all the people your age range? Yeah. I said, anyone who does what I do or similar to what I do, that is my age or younger, I consider a rival. And I want to vanquish them. And I will vanquish them. Like I need to be in my head atop that, like I don't, I've never really felt like I'm competing with you because I grew up reading you or whatever. I feel like you're competing with Colin and with Dan, you know what I mean? Like that you're that generation.

1:11:53And I, I know you and Colin do different things, but like I do it like Colin, Levitar, Dan Patrick to me, we're all like competing for the same term. I, so I had that for me. I disagree.

1:12:06Bill Simmons:I don't feel like I compete with any of those guys. Well, you're in a different way. I don't even think about shit like that. I like how you're thinking of it, though. Like, you're rising up. You're rising up the ranks. These other people are rising up the ranks, and you want to destroy them as you're rising up the ranks. Correct. And I tried to convince Wilds. Right. Wilds needs a feud. That's what we're getting. So there's an obvious one he should have. Oh, can I guess? He has an obvious rival. So age range. Age range. Is it Peter Schrager? No. Similar job as well. Similar job. So like kind of ringmaster for a show.

1:12:47Bill Simmons:Mike Greenberg. Yes. Greeny. Yes. I want Wiles to start occasionally just dropping little sub-tweets about Greeny. I'm happy to do that on this podcast to try to see if I can get it going that sounds great he will be so mad when he hears this because Wilds is like I don't want a rival he thinks I'm insane the whole thing and I'm like bro Greeny's standing between you and the Emmy like I always I always try to stoke it he's in your way he's standing between between you and what you've worked for, but he won't listen to me on it. It's like, he's a Jets fan. You're a Pats fan. Like, it all makes sense.

1:13:39You both really care about your hair. Like, it makes sense.

1:13:43Bill Simmons:Wait, before we go, this is my last question for you. What do you want for the rest of the 2020s with LeBron James? What would be your wish? How does it, how does it, what's the perfect way for it to play out? He's your favorite player. Yeah. So my all-time, for this year to go, fine. You know, nothing crazy this year. Like, I disagree with Rich. I think the ceiling is the conference finals, but they would have to get, you know, pretty lucky in the seeding and all of it. I just think, I think people sometimes forget how great Luka is. That's more of a Luka take than a LeBron take. but for this year to not have anything crazy LeBron to be healthy and and then where's next year what's your dream next year Cleveland or New York one year feels like Cleveland's the move right it's not like Cleveland's lights out right now I mean they're kind of a mess right and they'll be in that kind of we gotta shake things up maybe he goes in plays for a minimum And I guess my other dream would be that if somehow he rallies this year and once again makes an all NBA team that Bill Simmons ringer 100.

1:15:08There's no way. Going into this. Too many good players this year.

1:15:11Bill Simmons:No. Well, that's true. That's fair. Guy was sixth in MVP voting last year. How many times do I have to hear about how Kevin Durant's better than LeBron James when he's never been better than LeBron James one year of his life from the guy that wrote the book of basketball? I got to listen to how LeBron's an injury risk. I'm like, I don't know. Durant's not healthy all that much. LeBron's problem with games. Every team Durant goes to is miserable. And I got to listen to how Durant's 12 and LeBron is competing. He's like, I don't know where to put LeBron. 24 felt good to me. Well, he got hurt. Is he better than Alex Caruso?

1:15:46We did the rankings because he's 41.

1:15:49Bill Simmons:He's 41. We don't know if he can play 40 games. He was awesome. He was awesome last year. Yeah, we put him up. We put him like 11. Thanks to the other people. Your ranking was dragging him down. No, I had him high by the end. I voted for him. Second team All-NBA. Yeah, I appreciate that. I call it like it is. I voted for him for four MVPs. Yeah, well, that means you cost him three. What are the three? Were there three? So I've heard you do this. No, there's only four. 2018 is his only other case but then you have to just throw out the three weeks when he was throwing the tantrum and trying to get them to make trades 2018 there is a great argument there is the year oh 11 the first Miami year there's a retroactive argument no question and the year Nash he finished second in one of the Nash years oh yeah Oh, six.

1:16:45Bill Simmons:Oh, six. Maybe. Yeah. There's a case that Kobe should have won that year, though. Kobe should have two. That's oh, six. They didn't even make the playoffs. No, Kobe. That was the year they made the playoffs and he averaged thirty five a game and it was fucking crazy. Oh, he should have won that year. Oh, you're right. Oh, five. Yeah. The playoffs. Oh, six. So that so those would be the years that I. I thought it was interesting. LeBron, I it's not like he's unearthing a shitload of gems on that mind the game show. But him saying, no, I'm just saying. Him saying that 2018 was my peak is interesting.

1:17:20Is that what you were about to say?

1:17:21Bill Simmons:I actually had a couple conversations about that with basketball friends. I was like, wow, I would have gone with that second Miami title year when they won the streak when he was shooting like 60 % for half the year. And he was like the best defensive player in the league on top of it. But he was like adamant it was 18. so that Miami year he was the best defensive player in basketball so that's the argument there well on top of his shot 60 % he was like queen of the chessboard he was like peak of his powers that year it was unbelievable to watch him 18 though he had the that 2018 playoff run the playoff run is crazy is the greatest playoff run of his career and the game 7 48 minutes in Boston like the shit he was doing the game when he played against golden state right i mean that you've said it and i agree with you i wasn't there but you've said that you know that might be the greatest game individual game you've ever seen and so i think that was like peak powers brawn also by the way on the mvps thing did you not think he had a legit argument in 2020 at the COVID year.

1:18:35It was the COVID year. Giannis won it. He finished second. He, the Lakers had the best record in the league. Yeah. He was unbelievable,

1:18:44Bill Simmons:but I think I voted for Giannis. He was in the mix though. No question. All right. So the biggest thing we learned is that Mike Greenberg and Kevin Wilds need to feud. Yeah. I'm going to do my best. We haven't solved my homes. You gave me hope for a chiefs plus five 80 playoffs. And if they make it, Bill, I'm telling you, part of the scenario is the Broncos have to beat the Chargers in week 18, which if that happens, the two seed probably will be New England. So if they make it, Chiefs, Pats, round one in Foxborough, you're a nightmare. Let's roll. You're a nightmare. It'll be an amazing way to end the dynasty of the Chiefs, the mini dynasty.

1:19:26Oh, the mini dynasty. Thanks for having me on, Bill.

1:19:29Bill Simmons:Nick Wright, solid A -. I thought you did a great job. You know what? I just give myself a B+. Okay, great job. Good to see you. Hey, as you know, I'm a Patriots fan. Big game this weekend against the Bills. We kind of need it. I'm going to make some predictions using FanDuel's odds that they have. Some of the props for this. One of them is, will Drake May use his legs more against better competition? This would be the Mahomes model. I only scramble when I really need it in big games. 20.5 rush yards. over. 100 % over. Will the Bills continue to run effectively against my Patriots? Don't have Milton Williams.

1:20:08Bill Simmons:James Cook, 80 plus 5 rushing yards. I'm going under on that. The Pats have been good against the run. I know it's down a little bit since Williams left, but I still feel like they're going to move everybody up and make Allen throw the ball. Last but not least, will Diggs have another revenge game against Buffalo? 47.5 receiving yards. I would go way over on that because I think this is the game where you unleash digs. He plays way more snaps than he's played all year and you're relying on him on any third down. A dark horse, anytime TD pick. It's always Hunter Henry in a big game. That's always where Drake May seems to look when he really needs him.

1:20:47Bill Simmons:I would look at whatever his odds are. Usually they're in the 200 to 300 range. You can bet all these are Ringer 107 picks and so much more in FanDuel. Be sure to check all the available betting markets before the Sunday games. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Those superior moments in the game, like dropping a buzzer beater at the last second, are worth it. It feels so good. And have you noticed all the smoothest plays are served ice cold, just like Michelob Ultra? That's why Michelob Ultra, it's one of the reasons, is the official beer partner of the NBA. Or maybe it's because it's a superior light beer with a smooth, refreshing taste and only 95 calories.

1:21:24Bill Simmons:or maybe it's because they're giving fans a chance to win amazing prizes, including courtside seat tickets. Michelob Ultra, Superior, is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash courtside. Michelob Ultra Courtside 25-26, no purchase necessary, open to US Residents 21+. Begins on October 1st, 2025, ends on June 30th, 2026. Multiple entry periods, see official rules at MichelobUltra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, and prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. You know, with just one trip to Whole Foods, you can travel the world.

1:22:02Bill Simmons:First stop, discover the taste of the Mediterranean with big sales on brands like De Seco, Oreos, and San Pellegrino. With Whole Foods prepared foods, dinner is solved. You can roam the world with empanadas, burritos, soups, and more. Maybe expand your snack repertoire to South America with colorful and crunchy Peruvian potato chips. Then straight to Mexico for dessert. You can pick up a Tres Leches family pack cake for only$10 every Friday. All aboard. Save on regional flavors at Whole Foods Market. All right. Joe House is here. He's sick. He's tired. It's 5 p.m. on a Thursday. I said at the top of the pod house, if we don't win our picks this week, you're getting fired as my conciliary.

1:22:48Bill Simmons:We're still going to do all the games. I'm just going to go rogue. Not even involve you in the final five. This is it. Go ahead. step up. You're like Lamar Jackson. I need to see something. No, we've just had terrible luck and it's getting to the point when you're in the playoffs. Something needs to change. We may have to bring back our picks relationship person Billy Gill. Oh, that was pretty good. Or we could have Verno on and go 4-1 again. I forgot about that. Correct and Verno incorrect. I just had Nick Wright on for like an hour and 15 minutes and somehow we didn't talk about Phil Rivers.

1:23:21Bill Simmons:Oh. And I haven't talked about Phil Rivers all week. I think this is one of the most unbelievable sports stories of all time. My immediate, my head went right to how can we bet against this? Not playing for five years, but he knows the offense. This is absolutely ridiculous that he could just step onto the field with the speed of an NFL game. And he's playing the Seahawks, unfortunately. A team that has either the best or second best defense in the league, depending on how you feel about Texans. I'd have them second. and I can't think of a worse situation. Not only has he come back to play them, he's playing the Niners, the Jags, and then he's finishing at Houston.

1:24:01Bill Simmons:Are they trying to kill him? Why are they doing this? Yeah, I mean, over, under on number of games that he completes, do you think that he makes it out of this first game healthy? Well, to go through those first three, and then you have to end with Houston, a team of freaking pitbulls, like what a nightmare. It shows how desperate they are, It also shows you that we really only have about 40 capable quarterbacks alive who can play an NFL game to the point that a team's like instead of signing somebody on a practice squad who's going to get annihilated, maybe Phil Rivers will be better after not playing for five years.

1:24:38Bill Simmons:I did go back and look up his 2020 and some of my notes from that year, like a week by week. He wasn't bad on those Colts teams and even was OK in the playoff game. And we never, I never had anything in my notes, like with the pods was sour anywhere else. It was like, Phil looks washed. It's over. It wasn't like the Matt Ryan situation, but it was five years ago. Your kid was 10 years old five years ago. I don't think he ever really, um, lost arm strength. I mean, I will have to check the next gen stats to see how many miles an hour he was throwing five years ago. But, um, the thing that, that became, um, the real issue is he couldn't move.

1:25:15And I don't think that got any better.

1:25:18Bill Simmons:I don't think that got any better house so my guess is this is as we go to ringer 107 we had another classic week like we have the Bears we think it's going to be a tight game it's a one score game they're inside the 20 turnover they don't cover by half point and then we had the the Eagles which maybe we should have known but I just think that Chargers team is so lousy not by a lot of fault of theirs They've had so many injuries, but I just still can't believe the Eagles didn't finish that game. I don't know. I watched the whole game, and I still don't really fully understand what happened. By the time Sunday rolled around, I will say this.

1:25:59I could not figure out why we didn't pick the Rams at the Cardinals. Why didn't we pick the Rams laying? I laid on the Sunday show 23.5 points at plus 470. That was one of my favorite bets of the week.

1:26:18Bill Simmons:You know what? Maybe for Ringer 107 next year, we're going to have to have more gimmicky bets because we're both pretty good at those. I agree. Versus the straight ups. Or maybe we just have to make better picks. It's one or the other. The Rivers thing, though. So this defense he's going against, since week seven, starting with the week seven games, how many first half touchdowns do you think Seattle has given up? seven games. Not very many. Four. Two against the Rams. Yes. Okay. There you go. My guess is they're going to do the super conservative handoff, handoff, handoff, play action. Handoff, handoff, handoff, play action.

1:27:03Bill Simmons:I don't think that's working in Seattle. Especially when you look at the track record of these things. But it does make me like the under. I want to throw this to you, though. The curse of Peyton Manning. Oh, okay. I don't know if I'm test driving this for you, for you in the audience. So remember Peyton Manning gets hurt and the Colts have a terrible season. Yes. And they end up getting the number one pick and they get injured luck. Incredible. Peyton Manning, a hero in Indianapolis. Beloved. Beloved. It's like, oh, they'll just probably trade out of that pick. Trade down. Get Peyton Manning some weapons.

1:27:39Bill Simmons:What do they do? Peyton, thanks for everything. Send him packing. He goes to Denver and goes on a huge revenge tour. And they have Andrew Luck. Since that happened, they get Luck. He ends up getting banged up, retires. Jacoby Brissett, Phil Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson drafted top five. Danny Dimes, they finally struck oil. Blows out his Achilles. Now they've turned back to 45-year-old Phillip Rivers. I think it all goes back to that Peyton Manning decision and the rules of karma. Doing that to your best guy. I think they would. They got to look in the mirror a little bit, I think.

1:28:23Don't you think they would do that over again to have Andrew Luck?

1:28:30Bill Simmons:I wouldn't if it was the Pats with Brady. Yeah. I don't know. I wouldn't have been cool with it. I get it. I understand. It's just, I don't know. Pretty quick. So you have no takes on this. How much cold medication are you on right now? Should we just zip through these picks? Quite a bit. Quite a bit. No, I'll get some energy going here. I like a lot of picks this week. Oh, please do. We're videotaping this and it's running as a podcast. Well, I was looking Seahawks minus 13.5, but we could take that to Seattle minus 6.5 with the under of 48.5 as a parlay. Great. Get us in the minus 120 and just make that at one of our picks.

1:29:09Sure. Done. Say less. That's easy.

1:29:12Bill Simmons:Does that game go to 49 points? Is there a scenario? No. No. I mean, it would only be if Seattle ends up with a bunch of short fields and scores, you know. Remember, Seattle a handful of times this season has come out in the first half and dropped like 35 points on a team before, you know, the first five drives. Well, the Colts lost Gardner. Ward had a concussion. They do get Buckner back for the defensive line. But I just can't imagine. my guess is the Colts are going to try to really slow this game down 40 seconds of play let's do nothing crazy field goals let's try to make Seattle make some plays on offense and it'll just be one of those games that each team has the ball six times or something so Seattle minus 6.5 under 48.5 I only had one maybe game and it's the Ravens and the Bengals it's Ravens and Cincinnati Ravens minus two and a half.

1:30:10Bill Simmons:The Ravens had a five-game winning streak. Then they lose to the Steelers by five. It's win or go home for them. There's no Tee Higgins. And yet, it's 18 degrees in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow's been good in the cold weather. Lamar has not been a huge fan over the years. And then Joe Burrow has the press conference this week that Nick Wright and I just talked about, where he seemed like he was having a crisis on the podium about, I don't know why I'm doing this. Like it was like one of those where clearly wasn't super happy from a football standpoint. So I feel like it's a stay away, but I wanted to talk it out.

1:30:48Bill Simmons:Did you have some strong thoughts on this? I would play the Ravens the way that they lost the last two games to these Bengals and then the Steelers were both like so heavily unlucky for them. I mean, the way the ball bounced with the turnovers against the Bengals and the short fields that they gave. Yeah, they likely play, all that stuff. Yeah, and then to follow that up with basically a carbon copy against the Steelers, turning the ball over, you know, and game-deciding plays, both times involving the refs. I mean, the roughing call on the center turned into four more points for the Steelers.

1:31:34And, you know, Isaiah likely catching the ball, holding it for two steps, but not, you know, dancing a pirouette with it and doing the splits means that it's not a catch. So Ravens lose.

1:31:48Bill Simmons:I had the Ravens marked down as well as a minus two and a half. Maybe we'll use it. Yeah. The red spot makes sense. their season's over if they don't win. Just quickly, do any of these games, did you have any of these games written down? Rams, Saints, Colts, Browns, Giants, Eagles, Jaguars, Texans, Niners, Cowboys, or that's it. Any of those on your list? I did have Rams. Rams minus six and a half at home against the Lions. I thought it was five and a half. But in either way, it's fine. I think that they are capable of winning by margin. This is just a brutal situation for the Detroit defense.

1:32:32The Brian Branch injury, you can't overstate how meaningful that is. They are on their fourth string and fifth string safeties right now. Taryn Arnold's been out for a bit. They don't get pressure anyhow.

1:32:46Bill Simmons:Is this going to be on the Sunday show? Is this a Rams 30-plus points? It might be. It's going to be one of your picks? It might be. There's two candidates for that where I'm going to alt-spread. I might do both. We'll see. Rams is definitely one of them, especially the way they took care of business against the Cardinals. All right. I'm taking Bill's pats off the board because I think the Bills are the pick, and I don't want to pick the Bills. We did that once in Ringer 107. I didn't feel good about it. 29 degrees with snow. That's so fun. Let's just watch it and enjoy it. Yeah, I just... It's going to be great.

1:33:24Bill Simmons:No Milton Williams. Yeah. Buffalo needs it a little more than the Pats, but then the Pats are coming off a bye. Yep. No left tackle for the Pats. That makes me nervous, but the Bills have no explosive receivers. It was a pick them all week. It ended at Bills minus one and a half right now. It feels like the kind of game the Bills should win and will win. And when you go back to the 2320 Sunday night game, the Pats even though they won a lot of things won right in that game and they barely won yeah it was three turnovers and 11 penalties on the Bills at home yeah this one to me is just you know if I had to bet it I would just bet on Josh Allen and that's it Dolphins Steelers in Pittsburgh interesting Steelers minus three Pittsburgh's defense 27th EPA against the run Miami's reinvented themselves as this power running team although we don't know how healthy A-Chan is going to be.

1:34:21Bill Simmons:It's a Minka Fitzpatrick revenge game. TJ Watt's probably out. And Aaron Rodgers, who looked good last week, would have to then do that two weeks in a row. The catch is it's a Monday night game and it's going to be like 20 degrees and it's Tua in cold weather. But then the zag on that, because normally it would be like Tua, cold weather, done. The zag would be oh, you should press the cough button. Wow. You really are sick. The zag would be, yeah, that's why you take the Steelers, but that's actually stupid because they don't really rely on Tua anymore. He barely has to do anything. They run, run, run, run.

1:35:03Bill Simmons:They don't want to ever have him screw anything up. So this is actually the perfect time to take Tua. And the line feels a little high to me, I got to be honest. I don't see any difference with these teams. This feels to me it should be Tic Tac 1.5. Interesting. So I don't mind the Dolphins case. I think they've been pretty good the last couple of weeks. I agree. And to your point, you know, I sat down after we took the abysmal jets and tried to do the math on what, you know, that was just a bad read to a through the ball 20 or 21 times for like 125 yards. And the dolphins ran the ball 41 times for, you know, two, 200 yards or whatever.

1:35:43And HN just had, had his way. I think that's not a bad blueprint for going up against this Steelers team.

1:35:52Bill Simmons:And look, Tua, he did it in the Jets game. Sal and I talked about it. He had a screen pass from his own goal line that almost got picked off. It was just awful. I know he's going to do that. He's going against a Steelers team that has had a horseshoe in its ass for most of the year. Maybe it's one of those things where it's like, I can't believe we bet on two in 20-degree weather. What are we doing? but it's literally the only reason I can think of not to bet the dolphins in this game, other than you continually pressing the cough button and not knowing where we are at this point. It's very good.

1:36:23Bill Simmons:But I just feel like this is an either, either team could win game and we're getting a point and a half. I think the dolphins are just better. Which surprises me to say, cause I have all those unders that I had from before the season. I think half of them are probably going to lose at this point, but I want to do some research. I understand directionally what you're doing and it's correct because, um, the dolphins were getting three and a half and it moved down to three. And at this stage of the week for that to happen, that means it's sharp money. It's not, um, the public isn't betting on the dolphins and the Steelers on Monday night football yet.

1:36:59So, um, that to me means that we're, we're thinking correctly about the handicap for this one. Um, I just wonder there, there are other games out there. Um,

1:37:11Bill Simmons:Well, you left out the part that we've lost on the Steelers one way or the other, I think, seven times this year. So let's go back for more. Four games under 500. Let's try to solve them. I have two more games. This is my second favorite game of the week. Packers, Broncos, Packers, and Denver. Denver, I have them as six wins, zero losses, and seven either or games. Nobody has legitimately beaten them this year. So if they're a professional wrestler, it'd be a lot of like ref count outs, somebody interfered with the match, but they haven't actually been pinned. And I really think this is the week.

1:37:49Bill Simmons:I, to me, like the, the, if you're going to go over under regression for the Pats regression on the Broncos, the over under is one. Yep. And I think the bet probably is to say over on both, but I just think the Packers are better. I don't think they care where they play. And I think they might have the best all-around team in the league right now. They could do the thing where they score 14 points and we're furious at ourselves. I don't think so. I don't see it. I think they're good. I just think they go in there and roll. So it's schematically a matchup that really favors the Packers and really disfavors the Broncos.

1:38:34So the Broncos play single high safety and they also play man coverage. And Jordan Love has been extraordinary against those two defenses. And on the other side, Packers love to play zone and Bo Nix gets lost in zone. I mean, we just watched Jalen Hurts. Yeah, good God, get lost in zone. I think it's similar. The only thing that gives me pause is each time the Broncos have played a team that is a step up in class, they've really been impressive. I mean, they beat Kansas City at home. They went to Houston and won. Now that was, you know, they knocked out CJ Stroud. Yeah. They went into Philly and won.

1:39:17You know, the Dallas win was pretty legit. So that's the only concern, but I'm with you. I'm prepared to play the Packers here.

1:39:30Bill Simmons:so those games you listed that were their best wins KC team with a losing record Philly a team that's in a free fall Houston Stroud got hurt they should have beaten Indianapolis during a time when Indianapolis was playing well I mean you can do this game with the Patriots too to me this is like a weight class game I think the Packers are heavyweights and I think the Broncos are light heavyweights By the way, I think the Patriots might be light heavyweights too, just for the record. Well, I totally agree with you, which is why I did that exercise of going through their schedule. Yeah, yeah. This is an uptick in class.

1:40:08How have they done when the class is up? But it's a different version. This Packers team keeps showing us, and I have no problem at all with them on the road.

1:40:18Bill Simmons:And also, what the Bears were trying to do to them last week and did to some degree, as they held Parsons for three straight hours, which I'm sure 50 of those clips got sent to the NFL league office. Yes. I just don't, I, I just, I, I actually think that should have been a slightly different game because the bears couldn't really throw the ball at all, you know, and they were running, running, running, but, and then every time they passed, it felt like Parsons was just getting mauled. Yeah. Um, all right. Last game chiefs chargers. Nick and I talked about this earlier. I already tipped our hand on this.

1:40:54Bill Simmons:Um, 17 degrees. Chargers offensive line on the road. It's not even good at home. This is a classic Lombardi bad lines don't travel game. Chargers have been under 49 points. Their total games in every game since week seven. The Chiefs have six wins this year by 13, 15, 13, 31, 21, and three. Only one of those games went over 48. And you could either do the parlay of Chiefs money under 48 and a half, which I think is a great bet and I'm going to probably do in real life or you just smash the Chiefs at five and a half and think that they're going to get a lead the Chargers aren't going to be able to block, the Chiefs need the game KC it's going to be even harder to get a backdoor cover if you can't block etc etc just ride the Chiefs minus five and a half which I think if we want to use that parlay option we only they have one in ring or 107 on Seattle in the under to get that game in there, then it's just Chiefs, fuck it, Chiefs minus five and a half.

1:42:01I much, much, much prefer that approach to this. Let's use the parlay on Seattle because I think the Chiefs are, this is a smash spot. This is another one where I'm going to play alt spreads. It's just a brutal spot for the Chargers coming off an overtime Monday night game that was physical the whole time. and you mentioned the pressure rate that the Eagles were able to mount was nearly 70%. They had seven sacks. And Herbert has one hand. And it's going to be freezing. Freezing. And as it is, this Chargers team has not been good on the road since the offensive line injuries.

1:42:48Bill Simmons:Also, California team in cold weather is another fun one. Right, right, right. Yeah. Smoke by Jacksonville. You know, I don't think they covered against Tennessee. Barely won against Miami. Lost to the Giants. Just not a good team on the road. Is there a game we didn't mention that you think we should take? Because I'm ready to lock in Ringer 107 right now. No, the only other one that I'm kind of inclined to dabble is probably Carolina. I did look at that one. For them, you know, there's just Carolina and Baltimore are both in the same boat, which is it's revenge games. They're both on the road for both of those teams.

1:43:35Their playoff fortunes depend on them winning outright. Right? So, and, and, you know, unsurprisingly, the line is the same in both games, basically.

1:43:47Bill Simmons:I did take a test drive of Browns plus seven and a half in Chicago in a 10 degree game and I couldn't get there. No, I did. I did. I did stare at it for a split second. And then, that's too many points, but I don't want to bet it. And I also thought I don't want to bet the Jets again after what happened last week. Never again. That's it for the season. But the Jaguars being favored by 13 and a half over anyone in the league gave me pause. Do you know the last time they were favored by 11 points or more? Do you know this? I ran across this nugget in the research. 1998? Yeah, I mean, you're not that far off.

1:44:22It was 2007. The last time they were favored by 11 points or more. Wow, I didn't even know their quarterback was.

1:44:31Bill Simmons:There was a Vikings, just that line's too high too. There were a couple lines where I'm like, wow, that's too high. Cowboys minus six and a half against the Vikings. when we don't know if CD's playing. The Vikings are pretty much back defensively now and look good last week. Three straight weeks of good defense. I thought that line would go down and it didn't. And I would, I'll put it this way. I would never want to take Dallas minus six and a half. So I looked at that one as well. Yeah. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn ads. Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first, but didn't live up to the hype?

1:45:04Bill Simmons:Well, marketers know the feeling. They optimize for the numbers that look great. impressions, reach, reacts. But when they don't show revenue, well, that's not such a great conversation with the CFO. LinkedIn has a word for that, bull spend. Instead, why not invest in what looks good to your CFO? LinkedIn ads generates the highest ROAS of all major ad networks. Reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. You can target by company industry, job title, and more. So cut the bull spend. Advertise on LinkedIn, the network that works for you. Spend$250 in your first campaign on LinkedIn ads, get a$250 credit for the next one.

1:45:43Bill Simmons:Just go to linkedin.com slash Simmons bill. That's linkedin.com slash Simmons bill. Terms and conditions apply. This episode is brought to you by Brooks running. Sometimes in the sports world, we see performances so mind blowing. You think someone somewhere is bending the rules. Like when an unknown player comes out of nowhere and tears through the league with a dominant scoring streak? Well, the Glycerin Flex from Brooks is that phenomenon in shoe form. It provides a flexible cushion ride that's made to move with you. With a breathable upper, your shoe feels like a distraction-free second skin.

1:46:16Bill Simmons:It's the ultimate blend between human movement and tech. So if you want to feel the best parts of your run, Flex the Rules, the new Glycerin Flex. Shop the Glycerin Flex at brooksrunning.com. All right. Ring of 107 brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. where we are not going to take either side of the Bills-Patriots game. I can't handle it emotionally. We're not going to take any game with House's commanders because he can't handle it emotionally. No, no. But we are going to take... We are going to take Seattle in a parlay. Minus six and a half under 48 and a half against 45-year-old Phil Rivers.

1:47:00Bill Simmons:Do I feel bad that it's an old guy that we're rooting against when we're two old guys and House can barely get through the podcast right now? No, I don't. What are you talking about? You did make it. There's one. Dolphins plus three against the Steelers. We are taking Tua in cold weather in the ultimate zag. People said they never thought Simmons would ever do it. Take two in cold weather, and especially with House as his conciliar, but we said fuck it, we did it. On Monday night, we're going to be so mad. The text to each other on Monday night. This might be how you're going to fire me. It could be that, you know, it'll be Monday night.

1:47:37You didn't stop me? Yes. We'll need it to go three and two, and you'll be like, you son of a bitch. I like how we did it,

1:47:43Bill Simmons:though. We couldn't come up with a single reason to take the Steelers other than the Steelers' favorite is always a disaster. Yeah. Alright, so that's two. Packers minus two and a half against the Broncos. We felt like this was a heavyweight against the light heavyweight. Yes. Chiefs, Chargers, thought about a parlay here but we're just going to Chargers don't 100 % need the game Chiefs desperately need the game Chiefs offensive line do need it but the Chiefs are like their season's over if they lose but 17 degrees Chargers can't block don't overthink it and then last but not least we kind of begrudgingly landed on Ravens minus two and a half in Cincinnati based on a lot of different reasons including winter go home for Baltimore Bengals season over no T Higgins 18 degrees.

1:48:33Bill Simmons:And since he would be the reason not to like this with Lamar, but maybe this is a smash game where it's Derrick Henry being Derrick Henry again could, could have. And I would just be surprised if the Bengals won this. Yeah. Like Hendrickson went on IR this week. No Higgins. Like what? They got their win. Sad in a press conference. The win that, that made everybody excited, reminded everybody that Joe Burrow is Joe Burrow. That was on Thanksgiving. They, they, That was their Super Bowl. And they almost validated it with a great effort against the Bills in Buffalo. But now, tough spot, division rival.

1:49:09They always split the Ravens and the Bengals. So this is the Ravens' turn.

1:49:15Bill Simmons:That was the Ringer 107 presented by Fandu Sportsbook. All lines subject to change. Speaking of Fandu Sportsbook, I mentioned this to Nick earlier. The Oklahoma City odds dropping for the 74 wins. Oh my God. Remember it was like plus 670 when you were texting about it? What do you think it is now? Under 4-1.

1:49:40Plus 235. Oh my God. That's horrendous. Plus 235, House. You know why that is, though? It's because it doesn't matter if guys get hurt.

1:49:54Bill Simmons:We talked about if Shea just was out for the season tomorrow, would they still win like 62 games? And the answer might be yes. I would definitely say yes. I'm going to knock on wood. I hope that doesn't happen. No, we don't want that to happen. There was a couple streak things too including 29 plus games beating Golden State's 28. That's plus 450. Oh, that's terrible. Not great odds. You got to give me a 10 to 1 on that at least. It's only happened one effing time. Them that beat the Lakers 33. 12 to 1. Okay, now you're talking. Now you're talking. What is it now? It's like 17? Something like that.

1:50:37Bill Simmons:Yeah, because their NBA Cup, they're minus 250 now for the Cup. They were minus 135 for a couple days, and it was the dumbest thing in there. God, incredible price. Nobody's beating them in the play. Do these games count for the streak? The Cup games? Good question, House. I want to check with the sportsbook. I thought the final game didn't count right but it should yeah that's an interesting conundrum I like that anything else you're noticing in NBA before we go what have you guys been talking about in the Ringer Gamble show that Lakers performance there's two performances where I wanted more out of Miami against Orlando and the Lakers against the Spurs now Glass Half Full and give Stephon Castle this huge tip of the hat that he deserves.

1:51:27He took the game over. But at Lakers, you have no chance if you're not going to play defense. They just don't get out there. They don't rotate. They should be athletic enough, but they're not.

1:51:43Bill Simmons:Game was awful. I think there's just a certain type of team that's going to give them a lot of problems all season. Those young athletic teams. Nick and I talked about that. Have you been in the trade? Go ahead. did you at any point during that game think to yourself how the Wizards didn't take Castle

1:52:03Bill Simmons:even though most of the people at the Ringer thought he was the best bet to be the best part in that draft I honestly don't really think it was a big mistake taking Sarr because he is such a one of one in terms of the size and the ability to make an impact Wow, one of one. I like this. Yeah, I think he might ultimately be... Alex Sar is a one of one. He might ultimately be a very good defender. And you can see how well he moves out on the perimeter. I like Sar too. I think it's defensible. Yeah, defensible. That's right. With that said, I was pretty sure Castle was going to be the best guy in that draft.

1:52:43Bill Simmons:I mean, what would he be doing on Washington? How would that help him? He'd be one of your 19 guards. Right. How would he get better? Yeah. I want to know if you've been in the trade machine for Tyler Hero yet. For what? For you? No, for anybody. He came back, and Miami has looked bad. And there's something, their offense has glitched. Well, I mean, the call is always to Sacramento. That's my first call from the GM. You think it's for back there? Hey, you ever seen Tyler Hero play? We've got a white guy that's a shooter. There was a story. I never know what to believe with these stories that end up on Hoopsite, all these other places.

1:53:29Bill Simmons:But there was a bonus to the Bulls buzz somewhere. I don't know whether it was made up or what. But it was just so funny that Chicago and Sacramento making another trade. It's like the two teams that just don't know what to do. They just kind of... It's like these two people that keep hooking up when they know they're never going to date. Wait a minute. I remember those days you do? a million years ago? it was a long time ago but I remember those days would you try to trade Sabonis trade for Sabonis? that's an awesome question as you were describing it I think he could really help a couple teams honestly no joke I think he could help Miami I mean playing him with Bam?

1:54:15yeah because Bam likes to get the ball at the free throw line. They run that offense with him at the top.

1:54:24Bill Simmons:I thought the most interesting one to me would be a Clippers move with Zubats in it. Zubats-Harden, you do that whole thing and Sabonis becomes basically the Harden replacement as a focal point of the offense. That's just like neither of us are going anywhere. What do you think? One of those trades. The wildcard team for Sabonis would be Golden State, which would not help their defense. Oh, wow. But would be so interesting to watch him in a system like that. I do feel like there's a team for him that could unlock a lot of the stuff that I like when I watch him. What about the Raptors? The thing that they've hurt, as usual, a bunch of guys missing games.

1:55:15Bill Simmons:I noticed the fans have gotten quiet. Well, they're injured. I mean, R.J. Barrett and Quickly. Fans were loud. Fans were loud. It was loud noises from Canada, and it's now eerily silent. Well, because the guys are hurt. What do you want? They still have Ingram. They still have Scotty Barnes. I mean, you know. It's not like they were in a bus crash. They missed a couple guys. Everybody has injuries. Those guys are pretty good. I'll say this. I have a couple, even though I just did a long NBA podcast with Mahoney. The one thing I thought about watching that Tuesday Raptors-Knicks game. When they have their five, that's the safest bet in the East.

1:56:02Bill Simmons:Right? Yes. I don't know if they're going to have their five in April or May. Yep. But if my life depended on it. Yes. So the Fandle agrees because they're plus 270. Yeah. I don't know what's going on with the Cavs. But I don't think they could beat any of the top three teams, which Mahoney and I discussed from the West. but I do think they are clearly the class of the East now because of whatever the hell happened in the Cavaliers. Yep. Cavs have a deal or two yet to make. They have to do something. My team's down to 7-1 for the East. This is part of the thesis for why. Did we all go over for Boston or at least two of the three of us went over?

1:56:49We did.

1:56:49Bill Simmons:We had the right instincts with Boston and Indiana about the infrastructure and the guys who've been there but indiana just got immediately hurt well maverick got hurt immediately and i was there yeah that's just mcconnell got hurt right before the season right right right obie toppen got hurt that's a losing ticket you say yeah that was too bad yeah um yeah it feels starting to feel a little nixie coming out of the east and my one of my questions and this has been a big topic all week is does anybody say fuck it and try to chase when OKC is looming at the end with a giant pickaxe. The other team I would have is Orlando.

1:57:28Bill Simmons:And this cup game of Knicks-Orlando, I actually think that would be what I would bet on to be the East Finals. I like this. If you have any two matchups, I think that's the pick. Orlando's played the Knicks tough, too. They went into Madison Square Garden and beat their ass. They just out-toughed them. Bain's pretty good in terms of... Bain has quieted the skeptics of all those picks that they gave up. He delivered an attitude. And then Orlando didn't know. He gave him a little Dylan Brooks edge. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, the problem is this team can't play 10 games in a row without somebody getting hurt.

1:58:04Bill Simmons:It's outrageous. Dating back to last year. It's outrageous. Did you hear Mahoney and I talked about this because it was Zach's idea about just a hypothetical Paolo for Giannis trade who would say no faster was thought a really fun topic. Who else does Milwaukee get in addition to Paolo? That's it. It's a one for one. I don't know. Do you want the brothers? I'll throw in the brothers. It's not terrible. It's actually, you know. Do you want Thanasis and Alex? Three for one? That's a package deal. There'd be no doubt. I thought it was a fun hypothetical. It's interesting. I don't hate it. The one team out of all the ones with the assets, the one team that could chase if they really wanted to is Atlanta.

1:58:51Bill Simmons:They have a whole bunch of stuff they could do. Yeah. Can we talk about Derek Queen really quickly before we go? I'd love to. He's a DMV guy. Yeah. You've known him since forever. Baltimore High School area and then played the University of Maryland. Our boy Junior, who's one of the hottest AU coaches in the country. What's his high school now? No, he coaches the high school. He coaches Paul VI, which is nationally ranked every single year. But I thought he also did a club team too, though. Nah, he doesn't really do that. Oh, he doesn't do that? All right, my bad, Junior. Paul VI is a full-time job.

1:59:23Right.

1:59:24Bill Simmons:So Queen, he's known forever. He has. He was on that team with Cooper Flagg. He was a voice crying in the wilderness during the Queen trade. Like, hey, by the way, Queen's really good. I know they shouldn't have put the predictions on that pick. or they should have put protections on that pick. But yeah, have you seen Queen though? Of course, yes. I mean, rooting for that kid. The only thing that was like a kind of question mark, there was a sort of sentiment that he needed to grow up a tiny bit. But he's showing a level of professionalism in a situation where you really have to work hard. yeah they have so many guys that I like I think Murphy's a pro too they have pros in that team we'll see what happens before we go we gotta talk about Bob Chesnick going to UCLA your guy well he I wasn't ever gonna say anything but he kind of talked about it in a radio show or something he did about how I started the whole process so now I have to tell the story he did um this was they fired whoever the coach was mid-september and my friend casey who's one of the people the ucla boosters in charge of trying to figure out who the next coach should be and he asked me he's like any idea what we should do and sent me some names and i was like how do you not get the James Madison coach?

2:01:05Bill Simmons:So I started bombarding him with stuff from when he coached our beloved Holy Cross and how he completely transformed college football for us. And as I'm doing, this is like mid-September, as I'm doing that, James Madison just keeps winning and winning and winning. True story. And then I looked like a prophet. Maybe they would have found him out anyway. But as they're looking at this, James Madison's going up and at some point it got serious, but yeah. Well, James Madison's now in the playoff. James Madison's now a 12 seed in the playoffs. Our guy Bob Chesney, who took Holy Cross to the semifinals.

2:01:42Bill Simmons:He did that. Yeah, for sure. Deshaun Foster. That's who UCLA fired. Yeah. My single favorite thing so far from Chesney, in addition to him giving you credit, that's amazing, is he's already saying like, hey, USC, you're a little comfortable I know that you think that you own college football in this town. Just get ready. I love that. I'm really excited because obviously I don't have a college football team other than Holy Cross who punted on college football, except for when we had Bob Chesney. So I feel like legally I'm allowed to really adopt UCLA now, and I'm all in. It's where you live, and it's your guy.

2:02:24I've kind of wanted an LA team.

2:02:26Bill Simmons:We test drove when we got the King season tickets. My kids got into that. but I was still, I couldn't not root for a Boston team. That got weird. I feel like this is pretty clean. I agree. Right. Neither one of them. I root for Maryland because I grew up. You were for Maryland basketball, but yeah, the football. Three miles from the campus. And the football has been good, you know, like four or five times over the. No, man, I might, I might just be, I might just throw myself into this UCLA thing now. Go for it. I really want this to work. Who's going to stop you? Yeah. He's giving me partial credit.

2:02:59Bill Simmons:Man. But anyway, Bob Chesney, UCLA. Congrats. And we'll see how it goes because they've tried to hire all these different coaches and they've done the Chip Kelly route. They did the, oh, here's an alumni who used to play for us. Now it's like, hey, maybe we should just get an awesome coach who wins all the games that he coaches. An innovative coach. Just look at a couple of times some of the schemes that he puts in place. Yeah, and builds a culture around players. So anyway, I'm all in. UCLA, welcome me aboard. Pass you one in? Are you going to root for him too? Maybe. We have to talk to Lewis.

2:03:36Doesn't Lewis root for UCLA? Lewis is all in.

2:03:38Bill Simmons:I was telling Lewis in mid-September that this was I was like, hey, you got to watch what's happening with James Madison because that might be your next coach. Yeah. I bet he's sent you a bunch of eggplant emojis. Honestly, Lewis is so far up Will Arnett's ass this whole holiday season. Just doing PR for Arnett. then polar and i and he's got jimmy and i i'm like a blip on his windshield i'm like a bug that hits his windshield sometimes in view of what you just gave him how much you improved his life i mean it's it's it's kind of immeasurable when you have a great football team that you root for uh he's he's like i think he's 48 so he's the right age oh yeah like they're gonna get it's like when the pats just got vrabel he's like the right age right time perfect fit and uh i'm really excited so UCLA fans, this is not a joke.

2:04:31Bill Simmons:Chesney changed. We had given up on football. We didn't care at all and never thought Holy Cross was going to care. He just went in and single-handedly transformed it. It was unbelievable. We went to that semifinals. Who did we play? South Dakota State or somebody. All the guys on that team were 300-pound offensive linemen. It was like a fucking pro team. We competed for half. We were hanging around. so anyway congratulations great job coach House I hope you feel better I hope you don't get fired if our picks suck you're the boss whatever you want to do good to see you as always alright that's it for the podcast don't forget to listen to the rewatchables with Shampoo High Fidelity coming on Monday you have four days to watch that don't forget about the new Max and Rich podcast we launched Game Over they will have another one coming on Friday I'm really happy we launched that one I'm glad it's doing well as well.

2:05:29Bill Simmons:And don't forget about Music Box. WizKid, it is up. Go check it out. That's it. Go Patriots, please. For the love of God, let's beat the pills. I don't want to see them on the way you saw that I was set. I don't have feelings with them. Must be 21 plus in President Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Visit rg-help.com. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts sensor call 877-8HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York.