The Jaylen Brown Colonoscopy Trade (and More NBA Summer Reactions) With Chris Ryan and Kirk Goldsberry

24:34But ultimately, these models hate Jalen Brown as a factor on winning. You can look at just basic on-off stuff. The Celtics had a net rating of 6.5 with him on the floor, and that goes to 10.5 when he came out. And the models just start stewing on these facts.

24:50Bill Simmons:But with those models, how much does that depend on did you have a really good bench? Well, it does. You know what I mean? If your bench comes in and is cleaning the clock of the other team's bench, then the on-off stuff's going to get skewed, which I would always use as my defense for Jalen and Boston. And I want to come back to that, Bill, because I do think the real reason here is depth and team building in the second apron era. And I think Brad Stevens, Chris has pointed out, he wants a one-tenth pole organization with one giant salary, not two. Because you need to have the Knicks-Spurs finals.

25:22Those are deep-ass teams with dudes who are playing seven, eight, nine, like Jose Alvarado. you need to have that kind of money. And if you have two guys making 35 % of your cap in the second apron era, forget it's Jalen Brown or Jason Tatum. That's just a hard math problem for anybody to solve. And I think that's really at the heart of this thing. I don't think it's about Vance plus minus or anything. It's like, do we really want to have two dudes in their 30s combining to make 70 % of our cap and go out and try to beat the Thunder and Spurs?

25:51Bill Simmons:Yeah, on top of that, two of the top nine contracts in the league just for figure by year. the next three and maybe i don't know maybe they thought that was unsustainable but then the counter to that is well paul george makes as much money as being proud that's what that's the head scratcher that's the part that doesn't make sense to me it's like i get the financial thing yeah you got you got out of it after one year not too um i don't know cr that the advanced analytics stuff um and it's weird because i've always been i think even dating back to the grantland days i think we were at you know we were part of the forefront of everything that was changing there and i still believe in the numbers a lot of the time but i still feel like there's something about durability and somebody who shows up night after night and could be the best guy in a team over and over again and accept that challenge the issue is he won an nba title two years ago and they won I don't know really.

26:48What are we playing for? Right? Like I, look, I'm also somebody who's my favorite basketball player ever is Allen Iverson, who is also not beloved by the advanced analytics community. I cannot claim to really understand a lot of this stuff out at a certain point. I think that this is also as much as it's an analytics story, it's a media story to me. The turning point in some ways in the story publicly, I'm sure privately was much different. Was this Bobby Marks tweet that went out. about an analytics guy, unnamed analytics guy, telling him that Jalen Brown would be like the seventh best player on our team, not like in the league.

27:26And that really got the ball rolling in terms of this debate coming to the forefront again. This is all going to kind of die down once all the smoke clears. But this has just been a fascinating couple of weeks in the NBA where the outside reporting is so speculative, but then like there are pieces of it that feel incredibly well informed. And so going back to Jalen doing live streams and saying like, this was my favorite year of my career, which also had a lot of context. He also says a lot of other stuff, you know, that we can don't need to get into, but there's like these little nuggets that then get taken and run with.

28:04And the idea that this guy went from a pillar of the franchise to a, we need to get him out of here with no deadline. contractually, league-wide, whatever. We just have to get him out the door, even if it's to arrival in the division and we're going to have to see this dude multiple times a year. It really speaks to, like, I think the tension behind the scenes, but it's so fascinating to me because I want to know how much the speculation around it actually wound up fueling the fire.

28:36Bill Simmons:I have some thoughts and maybe a couple answers on that, but we have to take a break and we're going to come back And I'm going to talk about my stages of grief with the Jalen Brown trade right after this. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. We're in the heart of the World Cup. Look at these little special bottles for Michelob Ultra. Every play matters here. FIFA World Cup 26. For you, the stakes are just this high. Michelob Ultra, the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26. It's giving you a chance to win$1 million worth of tickets and prizes. Michelob Ultra from the pitch to the poor.

29:14Bill Simmons:Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 2-6. Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26. Superior access. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. Begins on December 1st, 2025. Ends on July 31st, 2026. Multiple entry periods. visit www.mickelobalture.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. All right, we're back. So in 2004, the Boston Red Sox in July traded Nomar Garcia-Pera, who was the most popular guy on the team other than Pedro. Now, hold on. They traded him for Orlando Cabrera and they also got Doug Bunkiewicz in that who ended up clinching the ball when they won the World Series a few months later and this was an incredibly polarizing trade and I wrote a piece for ESPN.com actually kind of defending the trade because they had tried to trade Nomar the previous winter in the A-Rod thing it fell apart he had to come back and it was weird for half the season there was some advanced stuff with him that he was slipping defensively, that he was starting to hurt the team a little bit, that he wasn't the guy that he was a couple years before.

30:41Bill Simmons:And they trade Cabrera for him, who was an excellent defensive player and just kind of fit the team better. Everyone in Boston lost their fucking mind. And then it turned out to be a great trade. And Cabrera was one of the many heroes in 04. If you're a Boston fan, that's the only thing you're talking about. Orlando Cabrera to yourself? You're just like, maybe this is like the Cabrera trade. I'll give you the stages of refair. This is like the end of The Irishman. It's like, oh, they're the Cabrera. Please. So I hear about this trade. The anesthesia wears off. And I'm watching America. I think convincingly went to nothing, especially because we were playing a guy down for a half hour, including one of the great free kicks of my lifetime.

31:29Bill Simmons:Did you think he was making it, CR? I did not think he was too... I thought he was going to be too close. The goalie did give him a wide side on the right there. He gave him a little bit of space. But yeah, I mean, that and the red card. I do like the free kicks when it's over on the left because I feel like you can really blast it. He put so much... Yeah, that was incredible. Anyway, I was trying to focus on the game and I'm in three hours of darkness. Some things I wrote down because I wanted to write down my anesthesia thoughts in real time. New owner cheaped out. Brad panicked. Tatum demanded the deal.

31:59Bill Simmons:Worst Celtics trade ever. haven't felt this helpless since they traded for Vin Baker. Those were five things I wrote down during the World Cup game. By the fourth hour, after the game, a little more uplifting after we won 2-0, even though we lost our best player in our team to a bogus red card. I wrote down take last year's team and replace Brown for Tatum, Garza for Mitch, because they got Mitchell Robinson yesterday, and Simons for Paul George. wait, are we better or worse? Starting to get signs of hope. And then I wrote down, didn't PG play as effectively as Tatum and Brown in the round one series?

32:42Bill Simmons:Looked up his stats, 17 points a game, 55 % from three. He at least was a draw with Brown. And then after five hours, and I had some texts, I'm trying to get faith. I landed on, this has to be part one of, a second part of a deal. And I think that's where I've landed. And I really wonder if the Trey Murphy piece is going to be the second piece of this, because I don't think New Orleans wanted, I don't think they wanted Jalen Brown, three more years of him. And I wonder if George on one year less with picks and you get Murphy and you get Jordan Poole's expiring back, and that's the end game here.

33:24Bill Simmons:And now that makes sense to me, Kirk Goldsberry, does it make sense to you? I had a similar sort of come around this morning. I could feel my face again after I woke up and I was like, okay, Celtics won 56 games. Is that right, Bill, last year with this team? So assuming Tatum sort of slides into the Jalen Brown slot and I'm like, okay, that's a 50-win team, right? But I had a similar sort of coming around to it. I'm not sure there is a second move, but that's a great theory. I do think what I said earlier, they value flexibility. The NBA did this to all the teams with this hard cap, second apron situation.

34:05Depth has never been more important. The only way to find depth is in the draft with cost-controlled guys. And overpaying dudes in their 30s is the fastest way to erase depth. And there's no shortage of teams that can say that right now. So I think ultimately, yeah, the Paul George thing of it all is still the weirdest piece. Like, OK, all that's true, Kirk. But they brought back a 36-year-old girl, a 36-year-old guy with bad legs.

34:30Bill Simmons:And that disappeared for 25 games last year because he got suspended. So I love your theory. If they can now turn that into Trey Murphy somehow and get Jordan Poole. So is PG available to get traded immediately or do you have to wait? Well, here's the thing. The trade doesn't get announced, though, I think, January 6th. so you have a few days here july 6th i'm sorry july 6th um so you have a few days here to you know you can make it a three-team or four-team or whatever now if they do something resembling the trade i just mentioned maybe they won't now you're replacing brown with tatum garza with mitch and simons with murphy and then you have your younger guys are a year older and some more pritchard stuff and that starts to make sense if that doesn't happen and this is just a trade and you're going to get a year out of Paul George and then he's a big expiring next year with picks and you're going to make a move a year from now.

35:26There is a world where they tell Paul George, like, you're going to play 49 games this year.

35:32Bill Simmons:And when you play, you'll play like 22, 23 minutes. We're saving you for the playoffs. We're going to play these younger guys. We want to keep you fresh for the playoffs. We want you to have one round, two rounds, three rounds, whatever. Well, you're going to play bigger minutes. But on paper, whatever Paul George is, whatever we saw, this is where I sound like I'm justifying the trade. I'm not. I'm just saying on paper. So the way you're justifying it is if there is a hypothetical second move to be made that isn't like we're waiting for Jokic or we're waiting for DeBansa and Flagg to come up, right?

36:08Bill Simmons:No, it's more like you're using Paul George to get somebody's money back, but ultimately flexibility, which I've been saying in this podcast since the season ended if they traded Jalen I really thought it would be for flexibility that's why I never really liked the Giannis thing because I thought I put them in the same position they were in before with these two giant contracts but with the Paul George piece and you're looking at and you're like all right maybe we get a year out of him less minutes he's a more complimentary player than Jalen our chemistry is better we can find out what we have with you with hugo and shireman more pritchard and we'll patch this together because we did this last year and by the way maybe maybe they're also saying jalen wasn't as responsible for last year as as he got the credit for that this was a system thing it was depth it was night after night being able to have 10 guys who were competent it was the three-point shooting it was the defense and that's the only thing i can think of um if that trade doesn't happen and PG just comes back, I still think the thing they're risking here is the fans and the city.

37:18Bill Simmons:That's right. Paul George, I would say he's been a slightly divisive guy over the years. You're risking Jalen going to Philly and Philly being really good right away. You're risking all of the Celtics, whatever the team they have now, not playing as well as they thought they were initially. And you're taking a last year, a feel-good thing where everybody liked everybody. And we're like, wow, this is great. I love this team. I love Joe Mazzulla. I love Brad Stevens. There's Chisholm. Now, if this doesn't work out right away, you're talking about Chisholm walking to his seats before the game and somebody be like, yo, Chisholm, fuck you.

37:56Bill Simmons:Stevens going into the thing. Hey, Stevens, fucking Trader Jalen, fuck you. Like this changes the energy. So they better be right on this, CR, because you've seen this in Philly. When the energy shifts in the cold weather cities, specifically Boston, Philly, New York, it can get dangerous. Yeah, and I think that the things that seem to matter to front offices sometimes are just so far apart from what matter to fan bases. And fan bases like establishing relationships with guys. They like seeing guys grow up. They like acquiring new stars. They like developing kind of like a rhythm with the team, a rhythm with the way the team plays.

38:32Now that can get stale. and you can find yourself as a Phillies fan and be like, I like these guys, but I've been watching this TV show for 10 years now or whatever. But I think that the danger is flexibility over fandom and flexibility over who are we putting on a billboard if we're trying to build a new stadium like you guys sound like you are. And I think that that's a real dice roll. furthermore you know like for as much as you're like this could work out if it's trey murphy and there's there's a couple of ways in which this could not work out you know that this could

39:10Bill Simmons:go very wrong than a couple and including jason tatum with coming off an achilles injury with like paul georgia 36 mitch robinson who has a big injury history and that they have all these injury variables yeah and a couple of those guys that you bring up uh on every podcast like who i still don't really remember watching play. No, I just mean I don't have a lot of Hugo tape in my head. Didn't show up against the Sixers. We're not ready for primetime. They are really nice regular season pieces, and they're really nice development stories, but I don't necessarily think they're going to win a second round series for you guys.

39:48Look, I haven't been out in the second round since 2001, so what am I talking about? I'm just saying that there is an element to if you're counting on another deal making this right or this all kind of coalescing in a way that we just don't understand yet, there's also a negative side of it. There's a bad side of it.

40:07Bill Simmons:I would say there's a few bad sides. The coalescing, the betting on guys with injury histories, Kirk. The fan reaction to this trade, which is the single most negative fan reaction. Even Mookie Betts, we knew that was coming for like a year. This was, I think, way more contentious. I'm sure Brian Curtis copyright the Now They Tell Us story. I'm dreading the Now They Tell Us for this. The Celtics don't usually operate that way. They're not a big leaking after the fact organization. But the big question that they would never answer, that if I had a Brad Stevens truth serum where I'm like, you have to answer, I'm going to give you this.

40:50Bill Simmons:I'm going to give you a call and ask me an anesthesia. This sounds like the beginning of an erotic film. You giving Brad Stevens a call. By Adrian Lyne. From Hell Month Returns. From Hell Month is back. A disgruntled fan wants answers. The question I want to know is, were you thinking of doing this right after the season? Or did this evolve during the offseason? Because my guess, my thought, is that pretty much everything Jalen did from the moment the season ended pushed them to a place that they decided maybe this was untenable, Kirk. Now, you work for a team. You're always judging the chemistry of the team.

41:34Bill Simmons:You're judging the best guys on the team, the happiness of the team. The Spurs got LaMarcus Aldridge when you were there. One of the reasons they got LaMarcus Aldridge was because it was pretty clear in that last Portland year he wasn't 100 % happy that Dame was becoming embraced. even though that Portland team was really good. It's one of Zach Lowe's favorite teams. Something was off and then the Spurs ended up getting him. So how much do organizations just think about the non-basketball personality shit? Yeah, I kept going to that. I don't think people understand the human element. When you trade a guy, it doesn't just affect that guy and his family.

42:14It affects all the spouses and the kids. And now everybody's looking over their shoulder. So I know that RC and Pop were like, very, very careful with the trade tool itself. Like we don't want to blow up the morale. We want to build an element of trust around here. And again, they had the benefit of a different CBA era where flexibility was king. And they had players who were taking less money, much like Jalen Brunson, which has enabled the Knicks to find depth this time around. But I think you're right. I think there is a human story here where Jalen Brown had an awkward last few months. I bet there were tensions behind the scene.

42:55And that's one of the only ways I can explain a relatively great front office making what I consider to be a bad deal to get away from Jalen Brown is that it must have been very bad behind the scenes, some real tension that we may never learn about. If Dan Shaughnessy is not going to write it these days, I don't know who will. But why did this happen from a human perspective? Because the numbers just don't add up. You can do the double ledger here. And it's just like, it screams like you started the podcast with. The Boston Celtics just dumped this dude who won finals MVP two years ago. It was a salary dump.

43:32To a division rival. To their historic rivals. Bill says one of the greatest rivals the league's ever seen.

43:38Bill Simmons:Well, the thing, I always judge these trades by two things. A year later, would you be glad or unhappy that you did it? That's one. And then, four months later, would the trade still be there? I'm guessing if this trade doesn't happen today, CR, but we get to the beginning of October and Boston calls and said, hey, Jalen Brown for Paul George and two picks. You're still saying yes. So why would you do a trade? Why would you do a trade that's going to be there in October now now is the best case for they felt like this situation had gotten untenable behind the scenes and who knows if if tatum who's been you know and i've heard both sides of this he hasn't said anything um he never went on the the jaylen this is a big thing in the local radio he never went on jaylen's twitch like it is true he never said anything now the counter would be well if he does say something, then that becomes a story.

44:45Bill Simmons:So he's got to lay back. Does he say a lot about anything? I mean, I don't really think of Jason Tatum as the most demonstrative star. Like, you know, he does a lot of like here's my documentary about my rehabilitation from my injury, but there's not like a... It's a lot of carefully crafted docu-series. I'm going live on IG to break down the World Cup. I mean, it's just... This kind of stuff is like what we have replaced reporting with is like looking at like tea leaves and trying to be like, well, I was going to twitch. I heard a guy told me. Somebody told me in front of mine. And you know, that's for better and for worse.

45:26But I think that my only counter to this would be, I don't now in retrospect, don't think Mike Gansey would have waited. I think the Sixers team was going to get changed. I didn't actually anticipate that. I thought that they were going to run it back and that it was going to be like, This is about cleaning up whatever Daryl did. And we're going to do some depth stuff. And we'll draft well. And we'll figure out where we're at. And hopefully Edgecombe develops. And we'll be like a five seed or something like that. And Embiid, let's just cross our fingers. But now in retrospect, I'm like, oh, this guy wanted to change the face of the team.

46:03This guy wanted to strip the paint and make it into his own thing. And I mean, speaking of reading tea leaves, his brother posted a picture yesterday of Gansey with LeBron in the St. Mary's uniform from back in the day, which is probably horseshit, but as Tony Jones also reported, the Sixers inquired about LeBron. And if that's the game he wants to play, like, hell yeah, sure. You know, it seems like other people have had the joy of cheering for LeBron, I'll take it. But yeah, I don't think the Sixers were going to sit around waiting for Jalen Brown. I think this was an opportunistic trade.

46:46Bill Simmons:I don't think Paul George was going anywhere else. We should mention, Waz and House and I do the worst contracts draft in the beginning of every March. We should mention this. Embiid was one and Paul George was two. And it wasn't even like, it was basically one of those, the draft starts at three, because we know these are the top two. Now, when we did this, Paul George was... was under suspension. Didn't know if he was going to come back. The Philly thing could not have gone worse, and he had two and a half years left on the deal. Now he has two. But I thought he was really good in the playoffs.

47:20Bill Simmons:I said it over and over again. I thought, I was shocked by how well he played. I thought he really bothered Jalen, ironically, and there was a lot of clips about this last night of all these different times he locked down Jalen one-on-one. Three-point shooting was great. Even in the Knicks series, his stats weren't that bad. so that was I thought the best he's looked in a couple years but it's Paul George and you guys had won I can't remember what the Sixers streak was we were definitely surging and Paul George got suspended, Boston would implode, like talk radio would be, they would have an FCC violation I want to talk about the Philly piece in one second, this is my last thing on Boston because I think we covered everything there is to cover from the Boston side.

48:06Bill Simmons:But the Jalen thing of just being with somebody for 10 years, ironically, 10 years ago was when they drafted him, what they had with him and Tatum together, which led to a title, six conference finals. And I was pretty steadfast all the way through, even with the honest thing. I was like, I think this guy's really good at basketball. Like, I don't really care what the stats say. I've watched him over and over again. I just think, like, this is a guy, the bigger the stage, the bigger the event. Like he's, he's going to be there and he's going to show up. Now people can counter and be like, well, what happened to Philly series last year?

48:39Bill Simmons:He wasn't good. Well, what, why'd they fall apart in three of the last four playoffs? Um, I just wonder if we're ever going to see teams stay together like this anymore in the NBA with the way the apron is. If it, this feels, everyone's talking about the advanced metric side. And this is like the end of a certain era to me. It's like the different end of an era. You could see it in the contracts that were handed out one for seven, two for 14. two for 19. Kessler got one of the only long deals we had. All of the middle class, slightly upper middle class, slightly lower middle class, all those guys are on one-year and two-year deals now.

49:15Bill Simmons:Nobody wants two big contracts on the same team anymore. Utah, who really could have used Kessler, was like, wow, you're offering us all this? Great. Take them. And then you look at the Snowtime Lakers now with Reeves making 45, Kessler making 35 and Luca making the max. It's like, that's your team. Those are going to be your three guys now. So Kirk, I just wonder, like you, you mentioned the Spurs earlier. If we're running back to Spurs now, Parker gets traded in 2010. He's gone. Like they're like, shit, we, we have that. We got to pay that. We got to pay Duncan. We have to pick between Manu and Parker.

49:53Bill Simmons:Parker just had the off the court thing that happened with, you know, uh, you could Google it. This is the time. Let's move them. We'll get younger. We'll get a young point guard. And guess what doesn't happen? You're not one of the best teams in the league for the first part of the 2010s. You don't make two straight finals and you don't win the 2014 title. So I just wonder, is this the league now where we're the NFL? And it's just a different champion every year. And it's by design. I mean, this is the first time in league history we've had eight different champions in eight years. Welcome to the parody era.

50:22It is the NFL. And it is a direct byproduct bill of the new CBA that went into effect in 2023. And one of the things that I don't think is good is we're starting to see like beloved characters being dumped like clay thompson like this guy is going to have a statue he's going to be a warrior hero but he gets like dumped so jaylen's not the first one to go through this but it's it's it's it's boring but it's it's profound too it's the the instrument insists on giving the biggest paydays in the league to dudes 31, 32, 35 years old. And then they immediately become toxic assets. They become toxic assets.

51:01We all know Bill Wendige's peak at the NBA, 28, 29. We watched the finals.

51:07Bill Simmons:It was all young dudes and guys in their 20s. Yeah, I said in Giannis' piece last week on The Ringer that there were two guys among the 25 most minutes played in this year's playoffs that were 32 and older. This is a young man's game, in part because the CBA makes it nearly impossible to build a good team around these toxic assets. These guys a little past their prime, they're making fucking$70 million. Like we're reserving our paydays for our guys who are a little long in the tooth and building a team around that guy in the second apron era is nearly impossible. And I'm not sure if that's good for the long-term health of these fan bases and the morale of these teams.

51:49So yeah, go ahead. No, no, finish your thoughts, Kirk. I'm sorry. I thought it was all embodied by that concept, by the viral video I saw today of a little kid just losing his mind about Jalen Brown leaving the Celtics. He had a Celtics jersey on. He's bawling. And Jalen Brown actually responded to this kid. And it's just heartbreaking. It's like you forget about that part of the business, guys. It's a morale business.

52:13Bill Simmons:My daughter, who really became a Celtic fan, legit, like the last few years, and is going through all the stages now of when you become a new sports fan. like the Giannis trade and why are they trading Jalen? I don't understand. Why did Miami get Giannis for all this stuff? I've seen all those guys. They're not that good. And then yesterday she's FaceTiming me and I'm like fucking out of it. And she's like near tears. And she's like, I love Jalen. I'm really mad. I don't understand why they did this. And you think you're dead? And I'm like, I still don't know. Where am I? Is this the afterlife?

52:48Bill Simmons:What were you going to say, CR? I was just going to say that there's a really interesting narrative history of the last 15 years to be written where Maury comes in and introduces a lot of the advanced analytic concepts to the NBA and changes the way teams are assembled. Especially the Shane Battier trade, right? The Shane Battier for Rudy Gay. Yeah, but he is actually in retrospect almost like he's romantic compared to the way the NBA teams are run now. When he was just like, look, I'm looking at the underlying numbers, and eight out of ten times we beat the Warriors, given X, Y, or Z happening.

53:23It was almost like this faith that he had. Then you have this draft capital craze that happens, and that's Presti, and to some extent the Spurs, and you see what happened with those guys. And now it's like it's Tim Connelly's NBA. And you're just like, I'm just going to have constant motion. I am going to wheel and deal, and Kat's out the door, and Randall is out the door, and Lomelo's in. and then if I have to, I'll try and find somebody to take Gobert and then if I have to, I'll do this. And it's just like this sort of churn that's been happening. The Sixers have been doing this too where it's like we rent a guy for two years and then we send him out.

53:57But it's almost like these contracts now, I think what Gansey did was really interesting is like all the Sixers deals are pretty much on the same timeline. So even regardless of the ages of the players, Embiid, Maxey, and Brown are all up the same year. So even if this doesn't work out, it's not something he has locked this team into for a decade. It's not like, well, now what are you going to do? You've made your bed and you have to lie in it with Jalen Brown. It's like, no, this is something that was very, very specific to Brown's deal. I don't know if he's going to be like, if you don't give me an extension, I'm out.

54:36I think that is going to be an interesting question for a lot of these guys where it's like, I have two or three years left on my deal, but if you want me to come to your team, we have to like basically redo it.

54:47Bill Simmons:Well, I forgot to say this earlier. I do wonder if that's a piece of this Boston side with Brown was eligible for an extension later in the summer. And if they had said no, how would he react? Well, you took care of Tatum. If Tatum had an extension coming up, you would take care of him. Why not me? And they're trying to avoid all that stuff. But wasn't the reporting about going, the reason why the Giannis thing, aside from not including Hugo or whatever, that there was the rumor that he was not going to sign an extension with Milwaukee. And they were like, well, we're not going to trade Giannis and just be back in the situation with another star.

55:19Bill Simmons:Well, I'll go further than that because I have information on that that I forgot to share last week. The Giannis to Boston thing was closer than I think people realized. And I still don't think Hugo was ever in the trade. But I do think it got to the point, the Bucks had an arrangement with Giannis that he was basically going to approve the trade. They weren't going to trade him without him basically signing off on it. And he didn't sign off on the Miami trade for a couple of days there. And they were talking about extensions with the Celtics. And it came down to, it was like two years, 30 % of the cap could be the extension or three years, 35.

55:55Bill Simmons:And the Celtics were pretty entrenched at two for 30. And Giannis wanted the three for 35 and they couldn't agree on it. And that was when he greenlit the Miami trade and Miami threw in Yaka Shonis and that's when it happened. so you can even think from the Celtics thinking there back to what we've been talking about a while it's like can we compete if we have these two giant contracts on our team of guys in their 30s and they obviously thought no so they said no and then they got out of the Jalen thing which they were desperate to do obviously considering the trade you mentioned Philly they have Embiid at 57 Jalen at 57 and Maxi at 41 this year Embiid goes to 63 67 Jalen goes 61 65 Maxi goes 44-46.

56:39Bill Simmons:We just take care of our guys. That's all I see. In year three, you're going to have$178 million for three guys. I think this is... I've obviously had a lot of critiques about Silver over the last couple years. It doesn't always please me to do that because I like him and I've had a decent relationship with him. I think the biggest mistake he's made is hammering this second apron thing and basically taking advantage of the players. I think the players over and over again are just outmatched in these negotiations. They're negotiating against billionaires across the board. They're just going to be outmanned.

57:15Bill Simmons:You're not going to know as much about the future as all of these guys who've made all this money doing whatever. What I don't like and what I think they should put in is the longer you're with the team, you should get some sort of cap and tax relief from it. I've been saying this forever about the Warriors and Curry. Curry's been on that team since 2009. That should matter. He just shouldn't be a blanket. Curry makes$61 million a year. It should be. He makes$61 million. But because he's, for every year he's been with the team, you get a percent off on the cap or the tax or whatever. So he's at a 20 % discount.

57:50Bill Simmons:Because I don't think fans want this. I think it's fun for us, for content, to just watch guys ship around and watch LaMelo leave Charlotte, watch Randall leave Minnesota. Ja. Ja. Jalen Brown. Like it's fun to just watch everybody move around, but I don't think it's, I don't think it's good for the league. I don't think I, I, I care about the shit, like the fact that bird and McHale played their entire careers together. I just feel like that era is gone now. Yeah. I feel like that. Yeah. I think that, you know, the, if you're looking for one reason to understand why Jalen Brown is on the Sixers today, it's the second apron, it's the current CBA.

58:28And I don't think this might've happened under the previous regime. And I do think it's worth thinking about that for the long-term health and sort of macroeconomic shaping of the NBA at large. And, you know, I wrote about it with Giannis last week because I think that was a huge part of what's going on there. And you just alluded to it with the Boston and Miami sort of negotiations there. Like this is the three-point line was the dominant game-changing artifact of the 2010s. The hard cap second apron is the equivalent in the 2020s. It's changing the game, but it's happening in the front office as opposed to on the court with shot selection.

59:05And I think the teams that learn how to use it the most and learn how to navigate it are going to be the most successful. And right now, that means, Bill, first round picks are way more valuable than they were. Young talent on cost control is a lot more important than it used to be. and like I said earlier, a 33-year-old bit who's not living up to the $70 million we're giving him is the most toxic asset in the NBA potentially, and you're talking about it with Embiid. Unless you're Toronto.

59:34Bill Simmons:Then you're excited. Yeah, but that trade's fine. There's nothing to see here. Nothing to see here. He just had to leave the country. Did you see Kawhi at the Blue Jays game? Oh, God. It was like Michael Corleone returning to Sicily. It was just like unbelievable. He was there for eight months. It was like he filmed one movie and was just out making the next one. Look, I remember writing about this in my book in the late 2000s about the 80s teams that we had, the Lakers, Sixers, Celtics, and Pistons, and why those teams would kind of never happen again because it was so easy to circumvent the cap, pay guys, keep guys together.

1:00:15Bill Simmons:And we all romanticized that decade because we got all these guys to stay on the same teams. And when Detroit traded Dantley for Aguirre, that was like a cataclysmic trade. People were like, oh my God, they traded Dantley. The Lakers in the mid 80s almost traded James Worthy for, I think it was Worthy for Tarpley and a draft pick or something and backed out at the last minute. But we had moments like that, but they're always about basketball and not the other stuff. and that started a shift over the next 30 years. We saw free agency change. You talk about these different areas. Free agency changed it in the 90s because once the guys were on the shorter contracts, you could see people like Stefan Marbury be like, yeah, I want my own team.

1:01:02Bill Simmons:And Minnesota had him for three years. They had to trade him. Golden State had C-Web for one year. They had to trade him, right? Then we move in the 2000s and it was about these longer deals that really were able to help a team like San Antonio that could build around Duncan, who was great. But then - But if you had a bad GM, they destroyed your franchise for a decade. You were done for half a decade. Yeah, you were done for five years. 2010s, three-point shooting changes everything. And then this decade, it's second apron. And CR, I really don't think we'll see a team go back to back for a long time.

1:01:37Bill Simmons:Even like Duran and Golden State in 16, I don't think could have happened with the way we're doing this now. Yeah, I mean, especially if you add the injuries that we're seeing and the kind of, and the wear and tear that's happening to the players. It just doesn't seem like a guy like Tatum who by all accounts takes care of his body as well as anybody in the league, you know, Halliburton. Like these injuries are destroying franchises for not only the playoffs that they're in, but the year after. I'm trying to, it's a really good point about the way that the league was built was by creating these long-term relationships And now I think that you've replaced that with the dopamine hit of the transactional nature of the NBA, which is like really fun to talk about and really crazy to just be jacked into the matrix all day long waiting for signs that so-and-so is going here or this plane landed there.

1:02:30But I don't know if it's super good for the league. You know, I don't know. I mean, like fandom itself has become a lot more individual. I don't think people are like, I have grown up and decided to dedicate my life to the Steelers or the Timberwolves or the Nuggets. Like, I think they're a little bit more like, I like this guy. I like... It's player-centric. Yeah, so...

1:02:50Bill Simmons:I like LeBron. Where's he going? Oh, he's on Denver now? I'm gonna root for that. I would not be surprised if next season there's just like a ton of buzz about Minnesota just because LaMelo has like a real fandom among younger NBA fans, you know? But I don't know. I just don't know if it's like totally great for the long term? Like, is the NBA going to exist in 25 years? You know? I don't. I honestly, it goes back to everything being financially driven, including like the fact that they want to expand, which I think is, I've talked about over and over again. The last thing we need is two more teams.

1:03:24Bill Simmons:The fact that everybody has a chance, which is how the NFL was able to grow all the value of their teams, right? It didn't matter if you're in Cincinnati, Seattle, New Orleans, everybody had a chance to win the Super Bowl and you were never bad for more than a couple years. And now we're back in that. I'll say one more thing about Jalen, and then I really want to talk about the Lakers just because I want to cheer myself up because I thought what they did was abhorrent. Can I just ask you one more thing before you do your eulogy for this? So I think the Sixers are better than they were yesterday morning, and I think the Sixers are in a position where if this goes well and if Embiid gives you...

1:03:59Yeah. If he's on the Paul George 45 games, be healthy for the playoffs. I think this team is way better situated to function during the regular season with a rhythm.

1:04:11Bill Simmons:Especially if Phylon comes through. Yep. If you have a bench. And Dean Wade is not a bad pickup. There's a starting lineup that the Sixers have that I think is among the best in the Eastern Conference right now. Well, you know what else you did, Sierra? You turned Paul George into Jalen Brad. I keep forgetting that. I was really locked in on Belgium. Like you had Paul George. And that's it. And now you have Jalen Brown. And look, you know what? Jalen's got a lot of good ideas. I'm really open to them. Well, one of the things... So I obviously feel it did great in this. But one of the things that I really like about the team, as you know, I'm a durability guy.

1:04:50Bill Simmons:Vijay, Maxey, Jalen Brown. Those guys fucking play. Yeah, you know who that also cares about durability? Vijay and Maxey played 40 minutes a game. Nick Nurse. Because he likes playing guys 45 minutes a game in February. but you you're basically you've turned him beat into the like the proverbial all-time luxury if he plays awesome if he doesn't play yeah i think you're okay i think you can patch together rebounds and rim protections and be you know not a catastrophe but you're gonna have these three guys night after night who are gonna be playing a combined 105 minutes and you know vj is gonna be way better next year that was the first thing the celtics asked for was vj and paul george and Sixers are like, no thanks.

1:05:30Bill Simmons:We're going to keep BJ. Blow up I-95 and do that. Really, what you want, and this is why the Celtics valued Hugo so much, is having these perimeter guys who are two-way guys on cheap deals is the single best luxury you can have right now. I think the Sixers are going to be good. It's interesting with the Celtics title odds were 6-1 really for the entire offseason. They're now 13-1. They are for 50-plus wins on FanDuel. Do you think they are a minus or a plus on that bet, your bet in the Celtics to win 50-plus games? I'm going to say a plus, but I'd be tempted. I think the bones are so good, Bill.

1:06:16You're going to tell me the price. If it's a plus, I'm in.

1:06:22Bill Simmons:Minus 135. 35. So, and conversely, the Lakers are plus 200 to win 50 plus games. Now, is that with Confederate currency or with... Sorry. They're moving back to Minneapolis.

1:06:44Bill Simmons:The thing with the Celtics, I think they're still going to be good next year unless the city is so mad and so focused on how much they hated this trade that it gets a little black cloud over it so i think one of the reasons they did this trade was what happened in 2019 when it was like on paper look at it look at this team hayward's back and we have tatum and brown and kairi and al horford and we're gonna be awesome and the egos and all that stuff never and i think that was part of the fear and why what leads to this trade um but i also think that could happen this year because of the energy of the trade and people just being mad if philly starts out going like 18 and 3 yeah right and the celtics are like 99 and tatum's having leg issues and you know there's this there's a couple different scenarios here we're like oh my god it's also a complicated thing for stevens to sell to his fan base because to make it sound like he's really excited about this trade he's gonna have to sort of denigrate brown on the way out you know what i mean like i think we got better i mean i i it's a very very very delicate dance here yeah um all right jalen brown quickly 2024 champion yes indiana series made the shot in the corner which was one of the great celtic shots of this century he was awesome in the dallas series defending luca going two way his game three i think he has 30 in game three they're up to nothing in the series and both of them together really took it and that was like the platonic ideal of the Jays together.

1:08:13Bill Simmons:You want to see what they wanted. Those two guys in that Dallas game is the perfect part, Kirk. I'm glad you brought it up. I was just going to add, like, on a team with Derek White and Drew freaking Holiday, who did Joe Mazzula use to guard Luka Doncic in that series? Jalen Brown. And that's why he won finals MVP. You know, he had a slightly more efficient shooting series than Jason Tatum, but it was the defense bill he called out. He is a serious defender and was more than capable in that series against Luka Doncic. And if Tatum wins finals MVP, I think all of this is a lot easier afterwards.

1:08:56Bill Simmons:Jalen gets the ECF. Tatum wins the finals MVP, which I think he should have. I said it at the time. I don't understand why he didn't win it. But I think the problems probably start there. anyway uh jalen was amazing for the city he showed up all the time never would however if you ever got weird off the court never saw it on the court um i thought he was reliable there were frustrating things about him which you get frustrated by everybody when you watch them play basketball for 10 years right but i i just thought he was an awesome you said he was an incredible guy in the community too he really was and and honestly that was the same thing for Mookie too.

1:09:36Bill Simmons:Like you don't get a lot of these, the people that can bridge all kinds of generations and all kinds of different things that really seem to care about giving back. And he was one of those guys too. This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Did you know you can use TikTok to connect even more with the sports you love? It's not just highlights, it's everything around the game, including the sports community. Find breakdowns of classic basketball plays, deep dives on baseball stats, even videos on how athletes train and recover. There are people teaching strategy, sports, history, even ways to improve your jump shot.

1:10:07Bill Simmons:It's kind of like the biggest locker room ever and everyone's sharing what they know on TikTok. CR, you want to stay for a quick Lakers hit? Sure. Okay. They gave Kessler four years 130 after giving up first in 2031 and 2033 and swaps in 28 and 30. They signed Grimes and Mamu for four for 64 for 52. They let Kennard go and Sexton for two for 19. a guy that Charlotte, which was like a nine seed, was like Kobe White's a major upgrade for us. They have Kessler, Mamou, Luka, Reeves, and Sexton, I think as the starting lineup, and Aiton Grimes, Vandy, and LaRavia coming off the bench, and Bronny, if you want to throw him in there for fun.

1:10:51Bill Simmons:I'm just dumbfounded, Kirk. You're locked into this team now that I don't think has any chance to beat not only San Antonio, not only OKC, but probably not Utah, probably not Minnesota. Even if Luka's averaging 35 a game, I just don't see how this is defensively a team that could hold up multiple playoff rounds. I just don't get it. So explain it to me. Kirk had so much trouble explaining it that his computer froze. You go, CR, and we'll go back to Kirk. This team feels a lot like the 24 Mavericks. And it feels like a team that was built by Luka, for Luka, based on what he wants to play with. secondary ball handler in Reeves, a big guy who protects the rim, and I guess can flush it, although I haven't seen a lot of Kessler over the years.

1:11:40I know he's a really good rim protector, but it's just a strange thing when all the word coming out of the Lakers was Mark Walters is here, we're going to have the front office from the future, and Palenka's still there, and he's making deals basically based on what his star wants, right? I mean, that's just my read superficially. What do you think?

1:12:04Bill Simmons:I thought they need to get him to sign an extension, right? Obviously, he's signing off on all these moves. This is what he wants. He wants a defensive rim protector. Guys around the rim and want shooters around him. The part I don't get is the lack of a defensive anybody. I still don't know who's... You watched Quentin Grimes for a couple years. Is this your lockdown defender? He's a cool player. Who's guarding SGA on your team? Who's guarding Anthony Edwards? What do you do when you play Anthony Edwards and LaMelo together? Who's guarding Jamal Murray? I just have... Oh, Kirk's back. I just have a slew of questions.

1:12:44Bill Simmons:CR, we were talking about the holes that this Laker team has, Kirk. This feels like a team Luka built for Luka's purposes. Yeah. For Luka to get awesome stats. Yeah, I don't like this team at all. As a guy who leans Spurs heavy, nothing's making me shake in my boots here. We talked about ownership earlier. There was talk, Bill, like when Mark Walter and the Guggenheim bros bought this team for$10 billion from the Buss family that they were going to turn in the Dodgers of the NBA and be the smartest, most aggressive team in the league. This doesn't feel like that to me. They have spent a lot of money on Austin Reeves, on Mamou, and now on Quentin Grimes.

1:13:25But yeah, like I said, this is a franchise that expects to win NBA championships. I don't see this roster competing for championships against a Thunder team that's going to be pissed off, a Spurs team that's going to be better, and then all the teams in the East that seem to be getting good. I wonder whether or not the long-term play here for the Lakers is to swoop in on a disgruntled Boston president and make him the front office. Brad Stevens? Wow. After Chisholm made him trade his beloved Jalen Brown, Brad Stevens puts himself up for front office free agency and joins Lakers.

1:14:00Bill Simmons:I really doubt Chisholm made them do anything. If anything, I'm just screwing up. No, no, I'm saying like, if anything, I think he's probably guilty of maybe should have thrown his body in front of the trade versus telling them they had to do something. The bigger question for me, you know, Kessler, four years, 130, played five games last year. I like him. Like he's a rebounding block. There's good advanced metrics. Should any center with the current setup we have, other than Wemby, be making more than$29 million a year? Is it defensible? The Celtics are paying$20 million total for Mitchell Robinson, Garza, and Kata.

1:14:36Bill Simmons:And Kata has some extension coming next year. But it just feels really easy to get bodies. Even hook 40 on the Knicks. Did you get him, Sierra? We did. I don't mind him for 15 minutes a game. I feel like there's a lot of those guys and is the difference between somebody like that and then, or, you know, the Lakers are paying$41 million for Aiton and for Kessler next year. How is that a winning formula? Counterpoint as a Spurs guy watching the Luke Cornett minutes in the last two or three rounds of, of the playoffs, we were holding on for dear life. Um, and Luke is a good player, like no disrespect to Luke Cornett, but yeah, like if you have a really good, solid backup.

1:15:23Like the ability of Oklahoma City to have Hardstein and or Chet out there. I think it is very valuable. Obviously, there's a guy in Denver that's worth a ton of money who plays the center position. But yeah, I like some of these dudes. But Kessler...

1:15:38Bill Simmons:See, I always count Jokic. I don't even know what position he is. I guess he should count in that Wimby thing. But... Yeah. You could tell me he's any position and whatever. But Kessler, this is a massive overpay. Let's not lose sight of that. This is almost like a Rudy Gobert deal, but Rudy was like a multiple defensive player of the year at the time. And he is impactful. If you have Rudy Gobert and he's age 31, you're going to be a top five, top 10 defense automatically. And that's been the side of the court the Lakers have been trying to build for years. But you said it in passing, you're a durability guy.

1:16:11The biggest question with Walker Kessler is, is he going to play more than five games? Is he going to play 20 games? He's been struggling with the same shoulder thing since college. so it's a huge risk on a player that hasn't sort of demonstrated that durability let alone the the competence to be a dominant center in the western conference bill yeah and you could see

1:16:30Bill Simmons:like portland i i was really surprised they didn't want to make clingin the best guy in a jalen brown trade yeah you know it's different than the hugo situation where hugo was being treated as a throw-in in that trade i value him clinging is the main piece to get jalen brown probably isn't holding me back, but I don't know, Sierra, maybe teams are looking at this as like, if Kessler is going to make four for$130 and Klingon can do a Kessler impersonation for$9 million a year, maybe that's one of the best assets you can have. I also think, I wonder if Indy... That's where you get into, like, was Luka Doncic like, yeah, you know, just get whoever you can get for$9 million.

1:17:08I'll make him work. No. Well, they had DeAndre

1:17:11Bill Simmons:Ayton and obviously weren't happy about it. Right. I mean, Ayton's a very specific proposition, but, like, it sounds like This was a team, like I said, that's been built instantly to suit Luka's preferences. And his preferences were obviously like a 2024 Mavericks, even maybe even earlier vintage of that Mavericks team where he's got a diving, like rim running center, a secondary ball handler and shooting everywhere. And then let's worry about defense when it's time to worry about defense. So you think Indiana who gave up two firsts for Zubats and basically a 50-50 chance that one of those picks was going to be 5-9 in this draft and then it came up tails.

1:17:51Bill Simmons:But Zubat's on a way better contract than Kessler and the price for these guys is two firsts. So you think Kevin Pritchard was going to the office today like, hey, I told you guys. See that Kessler deal? It's a little more defensible. I still... Do you agree with that, Kirk, or no? Yeah, I think that's a good comp. Tiny bit more? They played like Russian roulette with that lottery pick and lost. And I'll always remember that deal with. But, dude, I don't know what the Lakers are doing. I don't care about Kevin Pritchard right now. By the way, I do love to watch. I can't wait to watch the Pacers next year.

1:18:30No, there's nothing there. But what are we doing? What are we doing with Walker Kessler? We're the Los Angeles fucking Lakers, dude. Like, we go after George Mikan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Shaq. Like, uh, and Anthony Davis, by the way, like, what are we doing? Walker Kessler, how much, we're the fucking Lakers. Like, where is that swagger? And like, we don't get Walker Kessler. We get, you know, Nikola Jokic, we get, we get the biggest guy available. Um, and it feels like they took a lot of their own flexibility out with all that draft capital bill. So I just, yeah, I know it's, it's, it's, it's, it's a small sort of silver lining for your day yesterday with your colonoscopy and the Jalen Brown.

1:19:14Bill Simmons:They started out great. But the Lakers seem to have fucked their future a little bit, in my opinion. Sierra, if Utah's willing to trade Kessler, I think Utah's one of the smartest teams we have. That would make me nervous. Sure. Why are you trying to trade them? You're this young, rebuilding team. You already have a ton of picks. I have the same feeling. Why are you so excited to trade Kessler? I'm very excited about the Jalen Brown trade. I have the same feeling about trading with Brad Stephens. I'm like, I really hope, I really hope that, that Brad Stevens just like hit his head. And this is what's happened because like, I don't want to be in on the wrong side of these deals.

1:19:50I also, Verno made a really good point that I happen to agree with, which is like, it's very strange that that's the market for Walker Kessler and Jalen Dern can't find a job. Yeah.

1:20:00Bill Simmons:Well, this goes back to my question about should any center except for Wemby and Jokic, if he, if he is a center, I guess he is, we'll count him as a center. I feel like he's like point guard on offense. I don't know what he is on defense. But Jalen Duren paying him$40 million a year, I just think is prohibitive to everybody. If he gets that, God bless him. But it feels like 25 to 30 is the range for guys like that, that are like good centers, but they're not game changers. And then I guess Giannis, if you consider him a center, which I wouldn't. So Utah has Triple J, Markkinen, Bailey, Peterson, George, and then Sensabaugh, Filipowski, Collier.

1:20:44Bill Simmons:So they took a step back from maybe, oh, wow, could this team be a six seed if Peterson's good? I do wonder if they would have taken Boozer if they knew that this Kessler trade was sitting there. I wonder if that changes the dynamics of that at all. I like the front court. I think it was a little closer. so you like it with what they have I just think if I'm doing the Kessler thing I think I would just rather have Boozer but we'll see with Peterson they obviously they were all in on him did it cross your mind yesterday too with Danny Ainge who's a main character in Boston history would he have done this Jalen Brown deal because it's interesting that Danny's fleecing the Lakers in my opinion on the same day that this Jalen Brown thing is going down with Brad Stevens I think Danny would have traded Jalen a year ago when tatum got hurt he would have been like here's a soft rebuild i think he would have completely blown it up and uh i think he would have traded him and i think he would have thrown away last year completely um and probably been proactively a year too soon on it that i mean the bigger question is was there even a jalen brown trade last year you know i don't know what what was available last summer, but, um, well, so, so Lakers were all confused by that.

1:22:01Bill Simmons:Not to mention the, the, a team with three white guys, three, I had, I had, uh, to like a team that's being led. They're three best players are white. I had this great email. I got to find it from somebody who went back over the course of history. Oh, this is from Jason Downey. It's from JD Vance. Yeah. It's J.D.V. in Washington. No, Jason Downey said, the last time a team with three white guys as their best guys won a championship was 1958 St. Louis. If you go two white guys, Bird and McHale or Cowens and Hondo, can Luca, Reeves and Kessler overcome three quarters of a century of NBA history?

1:22:44No. Yeah, I'm going to go no. That's a no for me, dog. See if FanDuel will put that up.

1:22:51Bill Simmons:Snowtime Lakers. so then the Celtics concurrently get Mitch Robinson yesterday for 3 for 47 which I thought was a great deal the Knicks would not go over the second apron for Mitch they've spent a lot of money over the years we've seen title teams do this Kirk 2011 Dallas most famously with Tyson Chandler where they're just like nope won the title holding the line we want flexibility 2008 Celtics with Posey was another decent example of just didn't want to head into all the tax shit. Nuggets, right? Didn't they do that kind of with Brucey B? I guess probably there was no way they could match that.

1:23:30Bill Simmons:Yeah, they basically got poison-pilled with him. There was an Ariza Lakers situation when he got hot in the finals. They let him go. Defensible or no to you that they let Mitch go? I mean, it's the theme of our podcast, in its extent, is like this is a hard-cap world. We're living in a hard-cap world. Unless you're the Cleveland Cavaliers last year, the only team that dared go over this rule, the second apron. I don't think they had much of a choice, Bill. I do think, you know, as somebody went to the NBA Cup last year and watched Mitchell Robinson essentially beat the Spurs, that was like a premonition for how the finals would go, in my opinion.

1:24:06He's such an important part of their culture. That bench unit that I think got us from the Tibbs era to the Mike Brown era and obviously got us to a title level. but depth is very, very expensive in the modern NBA. And this is exactly what we can start to see from a title team. Like, yeah, your second best center is gone. And to your team, I think it's a great addition for a team that struggled with rebounding down the stretch and some of those playoff losses. Mitchell Robinson is one of the best rebounders, if not the best rebounder in the league right now. And he showed it in big moments. So I like it for Boston.

1:24:44I'm not surprised to see to see New York not being able to afford that many good players.

1:24:50Bill Simmons:CR, I'm not going over the second apron and getting crippled by all these different things for my seventh or eighth best player. I'm just not doing it. I just think everything is context. If Sam Presti did this, everybody would be like, ah, see, he knows. But it's James Dolan, so they're like, you cheapskate. God damn it, how can you not bring Mitch back? James Dolan was riding such a high after the title and then the speech came out that he gave to the team. And if he had just gone away to Australia right afterwards, he'd still be riding a high. I know, but it's the same kind of thing. I think we're giving Tim Connolly the benefit of the doubt because he's a really good GM with the LaMelo trade.

1:25:30I know that you didn't like it, but he obviously had his reasons. But then people are like, what is Tom Dundon doing with Portland? Why do they have five guards? you know like right everything is just sort of um about like the sort of narrative architecture

1:25:45Bill Simmons:around it that was my favorite jaylen trade and the one i was reading for it was blazers yeah with drew holiday coming back kamara and a couple picks and just call it a day and i think that would have accomplished a lot of what the paul george thing is but obviously portland didn't want him and that's yeah i heard the recurring theme over and over again yeah people just were turning down Jalen left and right. Portland was really sticky with those young players with Milwaukee too, Bill. And then there was, yeah, in the fact that Giannis, I don't think would have wanted to extend in Portland. But yeah, I heard that they were not willing to part with their young talent in either deal.

1:26:22But yeah, it would have been better to get younger if you're the Boston Celtics, but they instead got older.

1:26:29Bill Simmons:Do either of you have the Lakers as a playoff team? the way it stands right now. I mean, I think so because I think they'll be a good regular season team. So if they're all healthy and if they don't suffer like two months hamstring Luka, you know, I think that they will play well on a night-to-night place. Hamstring Luka. Yeah. Hamstring Luka or calf strain Luka. Bill sent me on the wild goose chase about calf strains and hamstrings last year. And I do think that's the right thing to bring up. Like, that's no small assumption at this point with him or Austin Reeves. But yeah, if Luka's playing, they're a playoff team.

1:27:02If they lose two of those three guys for any significant amount of time, I think it's going to be quite difficult.

1:27:08Bill Simmons:Luka's plus 650 now for MVP on Fando. Wemby's plus 210 is the favorite. Goes Wemby, SGA, Jokic, Giannis, Edwards, Tatum's sixth. Jalen Brown, still 101 CR. You're talking about the all-time FU season by somebody. Just Maxie throwing him at the oops the entire game. There's a dark side of this Lakers. season though that I'm maybe I'll have to grab onto as I search for answers and happiness. Kawhi to Toronto? For Ingram and Dick and two firsts and 31 and 33 and a 27 slot. Is it just crazy that they were allowed to do this before they settled this entire investigation? It is. It's just crazy. Yes.

1:27:55Well, I've heard

1:27:56Bill Simmons:this. So what would Adam, would he just say you're not allowed to make a trade involving Kawhi? I think it just would have been like, make the investigation a little bit more expedient if possible like throw a couple more lawyers at this thing like whatever it is whatever you're going to decide like it seems strange that the main character of this controversy is now allowed to go to toronto and is this is like i've seen people say this is kind of almost a shadow punishment you know or whatever we're basically i don't believe i don't believe it either but yeah i i just find this incredibly strange that this was allowed to happen.

1:28:32Bill Simmons:Can I give you some Kawhi stats? Okay. It was interesting watching everybody talk about him. Like, this is the missing piece for Toronto. Now they can make the finals. We just get sports amnesia sometimes with guys. Kawhi played for the Clippers for seven years. In the bubble in 2020, they lost in round two. In seven to Denver, they blew a 3-1 lead. 21, they made the West Finals. He broke down halfway through round two. So basically, he had only won two playoff series up to that point. 2022, no playoffs because he's hurt. 2023, lost in five to Phoenix. He broke down in game two. That's round one.

1:29:09Bill Simmons:2024, lost in six, round one to Dallas. He played two games. 2025, lost in seven to Denver. 2026, lost the first play-in game to the Warriors at home where they blew a big lead. And he was terrible in the second half. He's played 11 playoff games in the last five years. The last time he was part of a winning playoff series was May 2021. Why are we talking about this guy like it's the 2019 Kawhi in his back? He's not that guy anymore. I don't care. I know he was good. I voted for him for second team all-NBA last year. But as we talk about over and over again, regular season's here. Playoffs are here.

1:29:47Bill Simmons:And he hasn't shown up in the playoffs for the entire 2020s. He hasn't made it. So why is it going to be different this year, Kirk? It's not going to be different, but here's why. It's the same shit that makes Jalen look bad relatively. These models, like the estimated plus minus, which is a great tool. But if you look at it right now, Kawhi is always a top five, top six player in that list. But to your point earlier, durability is a skill. And a lot of times these models like fail to account for the simple fact that you have to play a lot to be a great NBA player. I think Julian Champagny. You're almost better at playing 10, 15 games less a year.

1:30:24Bill Simmons:So you look better in the models. Well, that's like what Paul George looked great in the playoffs after he got his 25-game break. And I do think that's one of the reasons the league is skewing so young. Julian Champagny played over 100 games of NBA basketball this year, and many of them in the playoffs. This is insane what we're asking these athletes to endure. And many of their bodies just simply can't handle it. Disproportionately, older bodies with pre-existing injuries like Kawhi Leonard. So I'm not surprised. I would bet very strongly he won't survive another grind like he did in 2019. By the way, it wasn't 100 % then either when they won it all, but he was seven years younger than he is coming back.

1:31:06Bill Simmons:He was really good last year. They lost the first playing game to a team that then lost by like 20 in the second game CR. My takeaway from this transaction is just that the Clippers have returned spiritually to the pre-lobsity era. that this Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram almost feel like pre-Lob City Clippers to me. And I appreciate that. Maybe that is the Clippers' punishment. We're back, baby. That's Brandon Ingram. Yeah. So the Clippers traded Kawhi Harden and Zubats. They got Garland and Wagler back. Ingram. Mathurin, I guess. Yeah. Mathurin is truly pre-Lob City's Clippers. Yeah. Greedy Dick.

1:31:51Bill Simmons:is about as 0-4 Clippers-y as you're going to get. Isaiah Jackson, three unprotected first, one swap. Way more cap space. I'm still not sure why they didn't get involved in the Jalen thing, but what do I know? I am still confused why Kawhi was so excited to return to Toronto. And I do think this is, if I ever did another basketball book, this would be another great NBA what-if for me. If he just stays in Toronto, he could have stayed with Siakam, and an OB, Lowry, Van Vliet, Powell, Gasol, and Ibaka in 2020. And they probably would have gone back to back would be my guess. Instead, he jumps to the Clippers, forces them to trade SGA and all their picks, aspiration scandal.

1:32:32Kirk,

1:32:32Bill Simmons:he won four playoff series in Toronto and two with the Clippers. That's wild. As part of the front office that sent him to Toronto, it's almost a full circle moment. Don't trade great players to your rivals. Like, I remember the Lakers were calling us in 2018. Can we get Kawhi Leonard from you? And Pop was like, fuck no. We're not trading our best player to the team that we think is a real threat to our championship hopes over here. And, you know, so we sent him to the Eastern Conference, to Toronto, for many reasons. But one of them was like, we're not here to help our rivals in Los Angeles. but one of the things bill we knew back in 2018 it was he was gonna end up in la a year or so later he was gonna go to southern california so i'm actually kind of surprised given that the emotional reasons he wanted to be back in southern california that now he's back in canada of all of this stuff it's like dude i thought you you wanted to live in la like i thought that was the whole thing it does yeah and he was living in like an hour and a half outside of LA too and seem like you love being in California.

1:33:42Bill Simmons:Conspiracy Bill has done some deep dives. I'll just say that. Conspiracy Bill has... I'm like, who's doing the Aspiration scandal? It's like, we're working on it. We'll give you our verdict. Conspiracy Bill is going to look at this over the course of the summer. Alright, quickly, LeBron. Last year, right? This is great. Here we are 15 years later. We're still waiting for LeBron. Yeah, I read a Brian Curtis trade rumors piece. He said we're in the trade rumors era for Grantland. 2014, he wrote it. It was 12 years later. And it was a piece that saw the future in a lot of different ways, including that we're probably going to be here for the rest of our lives with LeBron.

1:34:26Bill Simmons:He decided not to return to the Lakers.

1:34:33Okay.

1:34:34Bill Simmons:Yep. I wrote down he decided not to return to the Lakers like I decided not to return to ESPN. I thought that was funny.

1:34:46Bill Simmons:Anyway, we all knew where this was going. And he left. Where is it going? Well, with him not being on the Lakers. Yeah, but like where is this? I think we knew this for six months. Because first of all, I just have to say our Ringer Podcast Network colleague, Rich Paul, has been doing a wonderful job. The Ringer's Rich Paul. Having all of us play a game of Clue about, you know, with like, he wants to go somewhere that has both good indoor and outdoor golf. You know? And it's like, everybody is like looking up Topgolf locations across the country. Well, he wants winning, and he wants to be happy.

1:35:19Bill Simmons:Sure. Sure. Cool. Wouldn't have guessed that. I find this fascinating. I almost find it kind of fun. You know what I mean? Like, we're not going to get to do this that many more times probably ever with him. So I'm down to go one more last time we're on the carousel. Kirk, I'm going to make a prediction. I think this goes on for a lot of the month because it will get stories day after day and conjecture and podcast content when podcasts are dead in mid-July after everybody has gone with wherever. I just think this, my guess with this keeps going and going. Something, and I've seen, and we did, I did something with Zach about it on Sunday.

1:36:00Bill Simmons:Where could we go? And I thought San Antonio made the most sense, but they signed Tobias Harris, so that's not happening. Denver is a team that I think we always thought would be fun to see him, and Jokic together is no history there. I haven't seen this possibility mentioned yet. Hold on to your seats. What if he doesn't pick anybody until like January, February range? What if he just says... Yeah, what if he just says, you know what? I'm going to take my time with this one, guys. I want to watch the league. I'm going to play golf for the next six months. I'm going to stay in shape. I want to make like a February, March, April, May, June run, a five-month sprint.

1:36:43Bill Simmons:I own every single record there is to own right now. It's not like I'm playing for maybe, did he get to 40 ,000 points? I don't remember. I don't even, he has so many records, I don't even know what the records are anymore. Does he just say, you know what, I'm going to wait. I'm going to wait to see who's more unhappy with their team in December and January and early February. And I will just have people keep talking about this for the next six months. I think it's in play. What do you think of that idea? I think that that would be a sensational media story. And given... And now, I think that there would be some resentment that would build up of, like, LeBron's holding the league hostage and all this stuff.

1:37:22But the idea of him being like, let's see who's surging in January, and I will come in as like the great arm off the bench, you know, and if anybody can keep himself in playing shape, it's him, you know,

1:37:36Bill Simmons:it's the Roger Clemens move as Kirk said. Yeah. I'm still here. I'm still going to be in awesome shape. I don't care about regular seasons anymore. I'm going to pop in and out with somebody for four or five months. And also I think that it's worth noting, like the math on like, who would he be offending if he did this, right? Like he's played for several different teams. as we've talked about over the course of this pod, like the rivalries, the state of rivalries and, and you, there are no go zones and the NBA is kind of falling apart. So yeah, like why not? If, if, if Denver's rolling, I could see him going to Denver, but in January, you know, like if, well, especially if the market's not as robust as maybe they're pretending it is.

1:38:18Bill Simmons:And he's looking at lower than mid levels or. So the only thing I think this would do is that if he does announce that this is his final season, which I guess everybody is assuming that this would kind of diminish, the victory lap. Or maybe he hasn't decided that at all. We don't have any intel on that. Like the, one of the reasons I've always thought he was going to go to the Warriors is I thought it was going to be a two-year deal lined up with Curry and lined up with Kerr. And they'll be, I was calling it the expendables, but they'll just sell out everywhere. And it'll be this kind of appreciation two-year tour combined with the fact that they'd be pretty competitive if they could get everybody to stay healthy at the same time in April and May.

1:38:55Bill Simmons:But that didn't happen right away. So I'm wondering why, because I think the Warriors were ready for it to happen. And now it's on hold. So the Miami thing makes no sense to me. I think that would be so weird. You're going to have Bam and Giannis and LeBron. Like, what is that team? Are you winning a title with that? Also, Pat Riley basically like called him out when he was leaving in 2014 and was basically without saying it, saying like you're taking the not cowardly way out, but you're bailing on this after one loss. What is LeBron playing for? Like what is LeBron playing for financially? And what is LeBron playing for emotionally?

1:39:39Is he playing?

1:39:40Bill Simmons:He's playing to compete, which is weird because he was just on a team with Luka, who we have as a top five or six bringer 100 guy and Reeves, who's a top 35 to 40 guy. So it's not like he couldn't have competed on the Lakers. It's just the real issue is You can't compete if you're paying a 41-year-old guy$50 million a year anymore. So he has to wrap around his head like, where am I in this current ecosystem? I can't be one of the best two guys on the title team anymore. I just can't. So what does that mean financially? So that's what makes me wonder. Where do you want him to go? Where do you want him to go?

1:40:14Bill Simmons:I want him to go to San Antonio. I thought that would have been awesome. Denver is just fucking weird enough that I would watch every league pass game. and then a Golden State I think would be super fun Cleveland is the one that doesn't make any sense to me and that might be one of the most likely outcomes you're gonna have him and James Harden on the same team and if you put if you put LeBron on last year's Cavs team against the Knicks which is put him instead of Wade and Struis getting all those minutes does the series change do you think the Knicks lose that series I don't think Wade and Struis were the problem against the Knicks yeah so I don't I had the Cavs scenario.

1:40:55Bill Simmons:I don't know, Kirk, that one seems lame to me. I don't think that gets them anywhere. It feels right in my gut though. Like the part where he's doing a victory lap in the Cavs Jersey and the goal isn't to win a championship. So I think that's really the fork in the road. If this dude wants to win one more title, it's not Cleveland. I don't think that puts them over the hump, but it plays like San Antonio or Denver. That is a player away, a chess piece away. Like, so I think we're going to learn about a lot about his motivations by when he chooses and where he chooses because I do think the story the movie the movie story is going back to Cleveland and I feel like that's the way for him to be the most beloved athlete in Ohio history and to just make sure that probably is so it might not but I know it's lame but I do think if I had to guess that's where this goes um but if he chooses a place to go win I mean Philly Minnesota Denver San San Antonio, there's a lot of compelling choices where he can be the fourth best guy.

1:41:55And hell, he would make every team really good. We're kind of sad to LeBron's great end watching Melo take 35-footers.

1:42:03Bill Simmons:Minnesota would be an insane move. I think if I'm going to do that, if I'm going to latch onto a team, I'm waiting until December to do it. That's not going anywhere. I want to watch all these teams. I want to play it out and have a good time and do the, is he retiring or isn't he? and I'm just in the news all the time, which is, I think, one of the things that's attractive. It's the dialogue about what's happening with him that seems to be at least partly addictive to him and everyone in his circle. What's he going to do next? What's he going to do next? We knew he wasn't coming back to the Lakers.

1:42:35The reason I love that, Bill, is like, again, the 82-game regular season is an obscene amount of basketball for an older person to try to endure. I like this. This could actually set a template for Kevin Durant going forward or Stephen Curry going forward. is like, I don't need to be out there until Christmas. Like, this is ridiculous. I'm just going to get a hamstring injury or a calf injury. And training has become, and sports science and training have gotten so good that I can keep my body in playing shape even if I'm not playing. Yeah, and I'm more likely to be relevant in April, May, and June if I'm not playing October, November, December meaningless basketball games against, you know, Orlando on a Tuesday night.

1:43:17Bill Simmons:He has 43 ,440 points. He has so many records. I couldn't remember if he had 40 ,000 points or not. He has the games record. He has basically the minutes. Name a record. He probably has it or is in the top five. So the regular season, I don't think helps him as much at this point. I think what would help him is how do I stay in the mix? How are people continuing to talk about me as I try to do this golf side thing that I'm trying to do? and then can I just parachute into a good situation? Because I'm one of, I mean, the thing with LeBron is he could fit in any situation and be like fun LeBron like he was before Luka got hurt in the Lakers.

1:44:00Bill Simmons:So just like, plop me in here, I'll figure it out. And then becomes this huge asset. And maybe he'll watch Minnesota for two months and be like, yeah, I feel like I could help those guys. I'll go in there. Or maybe he'll watch Denver and be like, oh shit. Christian Brown looks healthy this year, huh? so anyway that makes way more sense to me than him talking himself into being on the Clippers and playing with Garland and Wogler I just don't see him doing stuff like that couple other really quick things then we'll go Miami loses Powell because of the honest trade I feel like he has to be added to the honest trade the guy made the all-star team last year they lost everybody on their team except Bam and Mitchell I feel like the Giannis sweepstakes ended up just there's going to be some piece written about all the teams that affected negatively and then detroit feels like it's kind of blowing up their team and that we're we're right now it's 9 41 pacific time but they lost harris they replaced him with john collins who's fine i don't think he's as good as tobias harris i thought harris was on last year's team their number two guy they went to anytime they needed a basket.

1:45:10Bill Simmons:And was also like the veteran culture setter guy who's seen it all and like here to help Caden Duren and then you bring in John Collins who seems like I have no idea what kind of duty is but it just seems like kind of more of a rent-a-forward situation rather than a three-year deal that's really a one-year deal. Yeah. And they seem paralyzed by all this Duren stuff but it's weird to me that if they had this moment coming with their team where they're going to have this great reckoning Why didn't they go harder on last year's team? They extended Herter, which I thought was weird too, because I didn't even remember him playing in the playoffs.

1:45:47Bill Simmons:So I don't know what to make of what they're doing, Kirk. And why not try to go after Jalen Brown would be the other one. If that's the price, a couple of first-round picks and some Saturday cap flexibility, which the Celtics didn't even get. Yeah, and they might end up with Jalen Duren still on their team, and that relationship is going to be strained now. So, you know, there's a case for why don't we just put in our armor on Jalen Dern? Yeah, you had a bad playoffs, but you're all NBA 22 year old. We're not getting another player like that in Detroit. So if it ends up with like this quasi strained relationship with Jalen Dern and some number that is insulting to him, that's not great either.

1:46:24But this is a 61 win team, Bill, that was on the rise. And it feels like I had them down in my biggest losers of free agency so far because it feels like they're not getting back to 61 wins right next.

1:46:37Bill Simmons:year like the i just don't see where they might lose that's right who knows beef stew yeah robinson they wave might come back they lose harris this team was successful and they just i thought they were a score short um favorite signings really quick i thought uber to indiana for two for 17 i really liked they're gonna they're gonna like him indiana's gonna be good like if they if they get halliburton 100 back i know he battled shingles and stuff but I really like that one. I thought Canard, two for 13 in Phoenix was a fun one. And then Harris to San Antonio, I just really like. Although, if we go backwards and we think about that finals, if they have Tobias Harris, who's losing minutes, Kirk, at that point?

1:47:25Bill Simmons:So we lose all the Carter-Brien minutes and we lose Champagny or the two? Yeah, but Champagny's tough because he'll make eight threes in a game and just win it. I love Julian Champagne and related story. The Spurs added three years to him. And that's a great story because he was a scrap heap guy. Now he gets paid, but it just gives them optionality. And I think Tobias is a shot creator. Like the Spurs look terrible on offense a lot. Like the offense just doesn't look good. It gives them another shot creator. So I think somebody can take 10 shots a game where there's 10 or less seconds left in the shot clock.

1:47:58Bill Simmons:A hundred percent. So I like it for them. It gives them optionality and looks. and everybody on that team is still getting better, as you know. I didn't understand the Barnes thing in relation to that, but why bring Barnes back? I get it, but could they love him for one year for$2 million? Not one year for$8 million? We still don't know where Peyton Watson's going. We don't know where Matherin's going. My favorite free agent that's left is, well, I have two, Rui Hachimura and Simons. I think both of those guys, I really liked Simons last year, and I think he's at least a$10 to$15 million player.

1:48:36Bill Simmons:I thought there was a chance the Celtics would bring him back. And then Hachimura, I was surprised that wasn't the guy San Antonio got Kirk. I actually thought that made more sense to them. Yeah. Do you agree with that, CR? Who makes more sense, Tobias Harris or Rui? Rui. For what they have. Yeah. I mean, I think that San Antonio is probably, Kirk would know way better than me, but a lot of their calculus has to do with what they expect Harper and Castle to be next season. How that relates to Rui versus Tobias, I don't know. It seems like it would have been an excellent addition. It's sort of strange that he's still out there.

1:49:15I don't know where he's going to wind up.

1:49:17Bill Simmons:Ken Rich Williams is the other one that is just clearly somebody that could be one of your nine guys in the playoff series. He might be your ninth guy, but he could be. So Ubre is out And then we're starting to get in the slim pickings range. We'll see if somebody gives Tari's an RFA. But for the most part, I guess. So the biggest storyline left is what happened with Jalen Brown? Why'd they trade him? And where's LeBron going? And then can Peyton Watson get some sort of deal somewhere that will force Denver's hand? But everybody's out of cash. Yeah, and how long does the craziness go? Like, is there anything that could happen in the next three days that then triggers somebody else to be like, you know what, actually, I also want.

1:49:58I don't want to be here. But I think that this felt like a fever for the last 10 days, and now we've sweated out, and we'll have the end of free agency and go into hibernation.

1:50:08Bill Simmons:You know what I really blame over everything else? Me doing CR month. It's possible. It was the first domino. I do CR month. Within a month, the Celtics have blown a 3-1 lead in a playoff series to the Sixers, and then we're trading the Sixers, Jalen Brown, and a trade where we get Paul George back. and it all starts with CR month. It all starts much like Jalen and Jason. CR getting the steering wheel for a month has just completely thrown the ringer apart. We also traded you, AJ Brown, into a football franchise in crisis. You know? And he thought he was going to go play for Vrabel. Is he going to play for Vrabel?

1:50:46I don't know. I mean, there's a lot of things up in the air in Boston. You hate to see it.

1:50:53Bill Simmons:It really is. We lose the Maple Leafs lottery pick. the Red Sox season has been an all time disgrace. And just when things were getting better and we swept the Yankees early, goes out with elbow trouble, uh, grim times. It's also like 130 degrees in Boston this week, apparently. Um, anyway, all right, Kirk Goldsberry, enjoy the, uh, enjoy the July 4th CR. This was a true, true pleasure. Thanks for being such a pro. Thanks brother. Thanks for jumping on here in the morning. Thanks to, uh, uh, Gahal and Eduardo and Chris and everybody else at Spotify. I'm going to be back on Sunday at some point with some sort of live show.

1:51:32Bill Simmons:And then the next rewatchables is going to be Ali, which is coming on Monday. You can watch that on Netflix, actually, the next five days. But that's our ninth Michael Mann movie, CR. I can't wait for people to hear it. I think if there's one lesson and one thing we want to leave people with as they head into July 4th, it's make sure you get your colonoscopy. Make sure you get it, but don't do it on July 1st. Um, and then see our possibility. We'll go live Monday night after team. We're talking, we're talking about jinxes, non-jinxes, all that stuff. Congrats on Harry Kane. Um, great, great day of football yesterday.

1:52:07Bill Simmons:It was really awesome. Legendary. Anyway. All right, guys, have a great weekend. Thanks to everybody who watched. Must be 21 plus and president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus and president DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming game problem. call 1-800-GAMBL or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York for Louisiana. Call 877-770-7867. Thank you.