The Kimmel Situation. Plus, "Can the Chiefs Really Go 0-3?" and More Week 3 Gambling Questions With Joe House

23:32Bill Simmons:And I don't know what to make of Minnesota. I can't believe how bad their offense is. The three points is what is kind of capturing my fancy a little bit. Like if it was Minnesota one and a half, just a standard home field advantage or two, it's the Vikings at home. That's the home field advantage. But the Carson Wentz aspect to this is unbelievable to me. I watched him. He has no business being in the NFL in any capacity other than holding a clipboard and helping his guys, you know, maybe leading prayer circle after a game. He could do a prayer circle. He could do prayer. He's going to be doing prayer circle.

24:12Bill Simmons:You just do, you gather everyone in, and then you kneel and you say a prayer. At the end of the game. I feel like he can do that. He definitely can do that. Anyway. So you want to mark this? Should I put it in bold? Just mark it for a minute. Just mark it for a minute. Because it's not like the Vikings defense has exactly wowed us in the first couple games. Somehow the Bengals are 2-0. And it feels like their season is over. But yet they're 2-0. And they're playing a team that could not move the ball against the Falcons last week. Is now on the Carson Wentz stage of at least for the next two weeks.

24:49You're right. All right. I'll move it in there. Well, just for a second. I'm probably going to dispense with this. I'm probably going to say, what are we doing? Well, what'd you get my wild foreplay? I want to see what it feels like.

25:02Bill Simmons:Why'd you plug it in if you're not going to use it? One never knows. Broncos, Chargers. This is in LA. I think there are probably about 40 ,000 Denver fans here. Denver coming off just an awful loss. Just an awful loss for us too. It really hurt us in Ringer 107. This line was three and it dropped to two and a half. And when it dropped to two and a half, it became a no play for me. I think these games, the Chargers looked really good against them last year. Chargers look really solid in general. I thought Geno had a lot of throws especially in that second half that he just sailed I didn't think that Chargers defense was as good as it would look after the game they only gave up 9 points I thought there were guys open Khalil Mack got hurt Denver coming off really an ugly week 1 win and then an uglier week 2 loss this feels borderline kitchen sinky for me Do they want to go one and two, fall two behind the Chargers with the Chiefs looming as well?

26:10Bill Simmons:Ultimately, a stay away for me, House. I really want to petty bet the Chargers. Oh, like a spite bet? To punish the Broncos. Because the Broncos invented ways to lose that football game, invented ways to not cover that football game. They were at all three levels, self-sabotaging. Offense, defense, and special teams. Well, let's just add another one. The coach, the dumbass coach, who on a 60-yard field goal attempt with a rookie field goal kicker. Put the puck block in. Yeah, let's do, let's have the block on because we're so concerned about this kid and these circumstances. Come on, man. What are we doing?

26:49And this is part of the thesis that coming into the season informed the confidence in the Broncos. We all have exposure to the Broncos because of this combination, this, you know, Bo Nix in the second year. It's our fault. He looks shaky as hell. And Peyton is, you know, somebody buy that man a cup of coffee so he can wake the F up. And maybe he could share some of the play calling duties as well. But the late interception by Knicks in that game, I just was wholly underwhelmed by the Broncos. Dumb Dobbins penalty. Dumb face mask penalty that sent them back. Missed the field goal. They do big dumb things.

27:26Bill Simmons:Big dummy things. The Chargers might be good. And I'm not willing to commit to it yet. But, you know, and I'm not breaking any news with that statement, but they really might be good. They might be the third best team in the AFC. But I think this is the week we find out if they are or not. Okay, okay, okay. I didn't like the way they finished that Raiders game at all. And I know it's a Monday night game. It was a weird time. But, yeah, they just... The fourth down call with the jet sweep. Come on. What are you doing? Run the effing football. I'll tell you another thing. I'm not sure about Hampton, who they spent a really high first-round pick on.

28:02Bill Simmons:I think he was the 12th pick. I liked it a little more when Najee Harris was in there. Felt a little more. I mean, you know, Hanton did put the ball on the ground. Najee Harris is healthy, right? At an important moment. Huh? Najee Harris is healthy. Semi. Yeah. Well, he had a little fireworks accident or whatever. No, no, I know. I would lean Broncos, but it's a stay away. Lions, Ravens. I would rather, we're going to get to a parlay portion of this. I'd rather talk about the Ravens in that section, but they're five and a half against Detroit. Detroit looked awesome last week. That was a, oh, Ben Johnson.

28:37Bill Simmons:We heard our name in the streets, kind of an impact game. But I don't see their defense stopping the Ravens ever. Now, I don't know if this could be a shootout, but I'm a little more interested in the Ravens than a money parlay, which I would like to discuss to you in a later category. I will be all ears. I don't want to mess around with a Vegas zone number, especially the Ravens Van Noy is hurt looks like he's out and Marlon Humphrey is questionable those guys matter to that Ravens defense so I'm fine with being cautious Bears Cowboys you know I kind of like the Bears they're minus one and a half somehow against the Cowboys who cannot defend anyone they single-headed rejuvenated Russell Wilson's career last week Like, the Bears looked, you know, obviously awful against Detroit, and their defense sucks too.

29:33Bill Simmons:And this feels like it could be like a whoever has the ball last game. It's more meaningful for the Bears, though, because they're 0-2, and they just got smacked by the Lions, and this is a our season is over if we can't beat this crappy Dallas team. So tell me one good thing about the Bears. Tell me one thing that you've seen that's good from the Chicago Bears. That's why I have to send the stayaways. Well, here's the thing. We have one good thing from Dallas. That offense is cooking. Yeah. I kind of love Dallas this week. I think, you know. Is that one of your picks? It's sitting here right on the sidelines.

30:12I have my little book here. It's in the book. I do have a, I'll try and make the case. But let's see if we, maybe we'll have consensus on five. But I think the Cowboys are the side in that game. I mean, I don't... What proof is there that the Bears can score under any circumstances, even against this Dallas team? The Dallas team, even with Micah out, they have been able to manage kind of reasonable pressure. Their pressure numbers are like in the middle.

30:44Bill Simmons:No, I'm just saying. It's not a joke. Give up almost 40 points to the Giants. Seahawks Saints it's up to 7.5 it is a lit let's be careful out there I'm not sure the Seahawks should be favored by that much against anybody and I like the Seahawks I like their defense this seems to me like one of those where if you're going to bet the Seahawks do an alt line like minus 14.5 bet on the blowout in the old days we would have teased the Seahawks against Spencer Radler with the 12th man I'm not ready to do that I also think the Saints are a little better than, you know, we have that, we did that fourth place bet where we had the Saints and the Browns and the Dolphins and Tennessee and felt really good about that.

31:29Bill Simmons:And a big piece of that was Carolina being better than the Saints. And I'm not sure they are. And I think that's going to be one we're going to have to hedge that one late in the season. because the Saints, they're not awful. They're not good. No. They're not awful. Carolina's awful. They're awful, awful Carolina. I don't want anything to do with that Seattle Saints game. It's a full-on stay away. And then last but not least is Packers-Browns in Cleveland. Packers, this line is just suspiciously only at 7.5, even though people think the Packers are the best team in the league. And the Browns, they played like two and three-fourths, really good quarters against Baltimore, and then that game slipped away.

32:12Bill Simmons:And then the week before, they should have won against... Who'd they play week one? I'm blanking. The Bengals. They should have beat the Bengals. Their field goal kicker kicked them out of the game. Their defense might actually be good. It's good. It's a good defense. So I wouldn't do this straight up. I would consider a Packers... in a parlay just to win. I want to be careful. I think that Browns defense, it keeps them in the game. They just keep defeating with stupid turnovers and special team mistakes at the wrong time. They were in that game against the Ravens and they should have won the game against the Bengals.

32:55All right, we're going to do,

32:57Bill Simmons:we'll talk about the possibles, but we're going to take a quick break. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, Every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.

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34:00Bill Simmons:This episode is brought to you by PNC Bank. In today's sports, everyone is constantly trying to outdo each other. Trick formations, infield shifts, constant rotation changes, yet it's proven time and time again that strong fundamentals are the thing that will lead you to victory. Banking, no different. While everyone else tries to outdo each other, PNC Bank just keeps going right down the middle with steady calculated money moves, and the financial wins just keep coming. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. Brilliantly boring since 1865 is a registered mark of the PNC Financial Services Group Incorporated.

34:35Bill Simmons:PNC Bank, National Association Member, FDIC. Now it's time for a special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket has awesome features to help you stay on top of all the action like live multi-view where you can watch up to four games at once, something I do every Sunday. You can also track your favorite teams and players with stats and fantasy view. Keeping up with your fantasy league has never, ever been so easy. Device and content restrictions apply. My favorite thing, I like picking the four games that I'm going to watch, especially in the early slate and trying to learn as much about the teams as I possibly can.

35:13Bill Simmons:But when you get closer to halftime, one of the games goes into halftime, all of a sudden you can pop another one in there. Maybe third, early fourth quarter, one of the games is a blowout, shove another one in there. You don't have to miss a minute of the action. You can watch every game every Sunday all in one place with NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You can track your fantasy league players like a champ. You can even the multi-view, just start Red Zone in one of the squares the entire time. Right now, you can get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Go to youtube.com slash BS to sign up now.

35:42Bill Simmons:Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Base plan required. Renews every month or in the 2025 regular season only. Your membership for the following month can be canceled anytime for you. There were no date, terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. No refunds. One thing to note before we go to the possible is the Cowboys line flipped. For Ringer 107, it was Bears minus one and a half. But now, as we're taping this Thursday night, it's Cowboys favored by one and a half. So what do you think happened?

36:09Bill Simmons:Was there another Caleb Williams hit piece that I missed? No, no. I just think people looked at the matchup and loved the idea of the Cowboys as a dog. The best unit in that game is the Cowboys offense. That's still a three-point shift. It's weird that we can't ever have a pick-em. pickups just never, it has to be, it has to get to one and a half. It can't even get to minus one. It's got to just, if it flips the one and a half, so it just flips the other side. Okay. Possibles. We already talked about the Bengals. You talked about the Cowboys, Rams, Eagles, Rams, plus three and a half in Philly.

36:46Bill Simmons:It feels like there's a lot of sharp sentiment heading toward this already. For a variety of reasons. The way that the Eagles offenses look terrible. The Rams played them well last year. People like watching the Rams throw the ball. They're good. These might be two of the four best teams in the NFC. There's a tush push. Lot of stuff about how they were kind of cheating on the tush push on Sunday. And I wonder whether the refs are going to be really looking at that play a little more carefully. I wish this line was four and a half. The three and a half makes me a little nervous, but I still kind of like the Rams.

37:22Yeah, I'm on the side of the Rams. I like the Rams here. I think that their ability to rush for and not have to necessarily get pressure and not blitz. I like that. Yeah, me too. I like the idea of them taking away the run. I think they can do it. And, you know, Saquon isn't even averaging four yards a rush yet. I'm not worried about him yet. You're not. I mean, we're also not really worried about Hurts. He has two passes this season. I'm more worried about him. Well, two passes this season of 10 yards or more. Two games, two passes of 10 yards or more.

38:02Bill Simmons:I don't understand why they're not airing the ball out with him. I watched his, they miked him. There was like a 14-minute Jalen Hurts miked, which I watched all of. It's really fun at the end when he gets mad at Chris Jones. When they're like kneeling to end the game. Yeah, victory formation. Chris Jones is like, these motherfuckers don't even have 100 yards. And he's like, we won the damn game or whatever it was. I was like, all right, this is why we like the players. I like this. Enjoyed it. Yeah. So I guess the bigger question for me is, are the Rams actually good? Because if they win in Philly in week three, that is a statement that they're actually going to be heard from in the NFC this year and that we have Packers one, Eagles have to be two, and then the Rams are like right there.

38:48Bill Simmons:Maybe the Lions. I don't see anyone in the NFC West really that can make a case yet, but this would, other than the Rams, so this would be a real statement for them. Kind of like Atlanta, too, but let's see them for a few more weeks. The big thing for the Eagles is Dallas Goddard. So, like, if you're going to be kind of an apologist about how they performed against the Chiefs, Chiefs have good defense, defense that took them to the Super Bowl. No doubt, Dallas Goddard. Goddard, I think, is supposed to be back. That's the idea, so maybe a little bit of the multiplicity on offense. Has he ever been 100 % in the last 10 years?

39:22Bill Simmons:Was there ever a report Dallas Goddard is feeling great? He was good against Washington in the NFC Championship game. Dallas Goddard is trying Pilates. He's really good at stuff. Speaking of the NFC West, Niners cards, interdivision. Niners home. They're laying two and a half. I love the Niners in this one. I think this is going to be one of the five for me. And it's not even a team I love that much. And especially with Mac Jones. Purdy might play. but the Cardinals, the deep back situation for them is so abysmal. They've lost so many guys. They're down to backups to the backups. And I just think this line should be higher.

40:01Bill Simmons:I don't even care who the Niners quarterback is. This is just like a Shanahan run the ball, play action, couple deep throws. In the game in tidy fashion. That's it. And it looks like the Niners with that Williams, the rookie they have on the D-line, who has been impactful for them. Yeah, potential Defensive Rookie of the Year. I'm not impressed by the cards at all. They've held on for dear life for two weeks in a row. And I just find it hard to believe they're going to go 3-0 is another piece of this, right? The cards are in this. We're laying very few. We don't have to lay anything. It's the Niners.

40:38Put it in the book. It's a lock. It's in our 107 Niners. Lay it. All right, I like it too. How are you feeling about Jags Texans? I've gone both ways on this one

40:50Bill Simmons:Jaguars at home favored by one and a half Lots of storylines Lots of Brian Thomas Jr. drama Lots of what's going on with Travis Hunter Stuff The Jags, kudos to them They've generated a lot of content through a couple weeks There was a great Reddit post On the Jaguars Reddit About how Trevor Lawrence doesn't actually throw Hospital balls with all this data I was like, that's a pretty compelling case Maybe my eyes have been deceiving me. He's also not accurate. I mean, there is that. He may not be throwing hospital balls, but he's certainly not accurate. They're definitely, the Trevor Lawrence hive is pretty funny.

41:29Bill Simmons:We're like, if not for those drops, he would have had four touchdowns. It's like, all right. Yeah. Cool. Do you feel good when he's inside the 10-yard line? Because I don't. Well, part of the thing, too, God damn it, Jags. You have the coach. like the Diami Brown is out there. I watched him for Washington. It was an absolute good riddance. Yeah. And Lawrence hits him dead in the hands for a touchdown that, that, you know, should have helped put the game away and dope drops it as always. I mean, I really had enough of him in Washington. Good luck in Jacksonville. Which way were you leading on this game?

42:06I'm curious. I'm leaning Jags and there's a couple of reasons for it.

42:11Bill Simmons:I think their defense, I think they actually have like a pass rush and defensive pressure. I think they're all right. They picked Browning three times. It was one of those where the vibe of the game was just off and the Cincy kind of stole it, but I didn't mind how they played. I think they have playmakers. They have this backup running back, Tootin, who I think might be legitimately good. And I wonder if like this is the week they unleash him. And also they had a big microscope on them this week. And Brian Thomas Jr. had a big microscope. He's very polarizing right now for dogging on routes and stuff.

42:47Bill Simmons:And so from a Jaguar side, it's like, all right, if you guys have anything in you, this is the week. And then on a Houston side, they can't block. We've watched them two weeks in a row. Two years. Two weeks. But especially like they had two really visible games this. Yes, you're right. They can't block.

43:09Bill Simmons:Nick Chubb actually broke a couple runs but I don't trust that piece and I don't think CJ Stroud's looked good at all and really for the last year plus he hasn't looked like the guy he was as a rookie I just don't think they have it I don't know who's going to win that division but I just don't think it's going to be Houston and I think the Jaguars have just as much talent with them so them being home, minus one and a half Florida outdoors. Maybe there'll be some hot weather. If the Jags can't win this game, come on. The case for Houston is they are 6-0 over the last, since 2018, in Jacksonville and 4-1-1 against the spread.

43:51So they feel like they own the Jags. And CJ Stroud has had some good games against the Jags. Now, this is a different iteration of the Jags and a different iteration of Houston, especially their run defense. you can run the football we watched Tampa run it right down their throats I mean you know they were they had some creative movement stuff with Bucky Irving and I don't see why that's not replicable for the Jaguars and I mean I like the idea of Liam Cohen in his bag a little bit I don't know how the Texans solve their rush defense issue but if the Jags can establish the run then I think you're on the right side

44:32Bill Simmons:Yeah, the counter, if you were going for Houston, is they've only given up 28 points in two weeks. They dropped or had a chance to have multiple turnovers on the defensive side that they didn't get. Did you see that stat Baker has, he could have like six picks, he's zero? Oh, yeah. It's like six dropped or whatever. Yes, yes. But I just don't like the vibe of that team. They have two guys who can rush a passer, and they have a very good secondary. But that same very good secondary got lit down the stretch by Baker when he had to go leap the field. They were up five with two minutes left. If you have a good defense, you got to finish it, and they didn't.

45:13Bill Simmons:That's right. And I don't know. I've watched this Jacksonville team. I've watched a lot of them the last two weeks, and I think they can move the ball. Like, for real. Against Carolina, it was really sloppy and disjointed. They still got to 26 points. They left a lot of stuff on the table, but there was... You can see the potential of it. And then they put up 27 against Sitsing, and it really should have been like 40. Because they got inside the 10 twice, two other times plus the 27. Yeah. So, as crazy as it sounds, I kind of like the Jags. I don't think it's that crazy. We're just, you know, the trend is to not take the team.

45:55You know, the 0-2 team is supposed to be the side, but it's a tiny line. I think it's lined perfectly. Pat Steelers.

46:05Bill Simmons:Pat's are plus one and a half in this game against Pittsburgh. The defensive stats, the advanced stuff for Pittsburgh is even worse than it looked like from an eye test standpoint. Like, they basically can't tackle. They had 18.2 % missed tackle rate according to NextGenStats. Not to mention, they've had some Highsmiths out of this game. Right. Looks like Joey Porter's probably going to be out. The defense dating back to last year when they really started to tail off those last four or five games and then heading into this year, the Jets lit them up and then couldn't do anything a week later. I think the Pats could cook in this game.

46:43Bill Simmons:The Pats looked good last week against the Dolphins. Their offense was moving the ball and doing a lot of good things. I think they've kind of rejuvenated Ramondre. The left side of the line is actually able to block now. They have multiple receivers who can at least get open on a third and seven. And I like the spot for them. I also think the Pats have a real pass rush this year. This Milton Williams they signed, he's been awesome. I think he's the number one ranked defensive lineman through two weeks. But he's been really, really, really disruptive. And that's how you beat Pittsburgh. You got to disrupt Rogers, pressure him, get in there.

47:18Bill Simmons:And I think this Steelers season is about to do this. And that's the case for Pats plus one and a half. This is going to be one of my two, four or five. What is your current information on the availability of Christian Gonzalez? That's the most important thing to me. He practiced. I have no idea if he's going to play.

47:41Bill Simmons:And I like them either way. okay well I can give a throaty endorsement if Christian Gonzalez is involved because I really love him locking down one side of the football field yeah well especially with the pressure putting on you know what are you talking about oh I have so many jokes I won't do it so the case for Pittsburgh is they won in week one and week two came down to that dumbass not understanding the kickoff role that swung the game I thought I actually just thought Seattle outplayed them and basically Darnold had two bad passes that they picked and Seattle still won by 14, which is, I think, a really bad sign for them.

48:20Bill Simmons:They're playing Minnesota and Cleveland after this for the next two. And then they're at Cincinnati, home Green Bay, home Indianapolis at the Chargers. And, you know, that's nine games. I think this is, this feels like they could be like three and six after nine games. This could really be the year where we're like, oh, I guess Tomlin can't win 10 games every year. Well, if that's the case, this is one of the games that they lose, if that's the case. Well, I'll tell you this. If the Pats win this and then they have Carolina next week, that's 3-1. At Buffalo week 5, 3-2. That's 3-2. At New Orleans, at Tennessee, home Cleveland, the next three.

49:07Bill Simmons:could they literally could be five and three without us having any idea if they're even decent. But this was the case for them going nine and eight. Their schedule is terrible. And if Pittsburgh's not going to be good, that really helps the case for like the schedule might create a nine and 18. Not to mention the jets and Miami really should be four wins for them potentially. Right. They're division games. They're tough games. I mean, Miami damn near won that game in Miami. the punt return should have been a clinching play. Yeah, the pass show won that game in the first half, though. Speaking of the AFCs, the Jets are six and a half in Tampa.

49:51Bill Simmons:Tyrod Taylor is playing, which I like. I know higher floor than Justin Fields, probably a lower ceiling. Tampa's just demolished on the offensive line, like to a dangerous level. It's really bad, And I don't think Wurst is playing this week. They lost two other starters. And I feel like this line's too high. This is an overreaction to Buffalo spanking the Jets last week. Six and a half is too many points. This should be a four and a half point line. Totally agree with every aspect of that. Do we dare bet against Baker Mayfield? I mean, part of the thing... I don't want to bet the Jets. I don't want to bet the Jets either.

50:29They killed us last week. Yeah.

50:32Bill Simmons:That game, we bet that. As I talked about on Sunday, that should be an alert from Fandle where they alert you that you've bet on Justin Fields against Josh Allen. We learned our lesson. But I think this line's too high. It's too high. I don't want to bet it. I just can't get there. All right, last one is Titans-Colts. Titans are a classic sharp pick. Colts' pass rush has been bad. Titans' offensive line, multiple injuries. Latham might be out. and I think there's, Zeitler might be out too. Colts should be one-on-one. Colts on grass, Colts outdoors, Colts with a lot of smoke getting blown up their ass all week.

51:11Bill Simmons:It has all the makings. And I actually like the Titans receivers, that rookie they have, the fourth rounder, I think is good. I picked him up in one of my leagues and Ridley and I don't know. I can't word. Yeah, it's good. Four and a half seems like a point and a half too high. I thought this should have been Colts minus three. No argument whatsoever. Will not, under any circumstances, bet on the Titans. Just won't do it. Just will not do it. As long as that moron is the head coach, never betting the Titans. You know, it could have been Colts by 10. Just not doing it. He fixed the special teams.

51:48Bill Simmons:Special teams are okay, finally. Well, they hired a special teams coach. Fossil's good. Yeah. They realized that special teams were one of the three parts of football. Congrats. All right. Parlay possibilities.

52:04The Falcons money line against the Panthers.

52:08Bill Simmons:I want to put the Falcons money line with something because I actually like the Falcons. I think they're good. Me too. You could also talk me into Falcons minus five and a half, but I'd rather money line them with something. I don't want to mess with that. That's too dumb. It's in Carolina. They should win. It has another one that has all the makings. You're going against an 0-2 team, but I think Carolina is genuinely bad. And they threw everyone off the scent because they got two touchdowns in garbage time against Arizona. All of a sudden, they got an onside kick. That game wasn't close for two and a half hours.

52:41No interest in betting on the Panthers. Don't care what the numbers are. Can't do it. So we have the Falcons minus five and a half.

52:49Bill Simmons:I'm sorry, minus 250. We could put it with the Ravens money line. Ravens against Detroit. Ravens money line, we could bring the Falcons line to plus two and a half, all to adjust it on FanDuel. And that is minus 112, and that fits in our little parlay spot. Ravens money line, Falcons plus two and a half. It's minus 112. Is there any scenario under which Detroit with Goff, it's an outdoor game, it's in Baltimore, it's a Monday night game, Campbell gets them revved up, Van Nooy out yeah is there any way they can keep up scoring wise with the Ravens there certainly is do you have another suggestion for us money line wise yeah so we agree the Falcons in principle should be in this yes we do we definitely agree so could I what if I offered you if I could take the Falcons down to two and a half minus 2.5 with the Packers in Cleveland.

54:00Do you think that the Chiefs are going to start season 0-3 with a loss against the Giants?

54:12You really want to back the Chiefs? Just on the money line. Just to win. Let me look at... It's the best defense the Giants will have faced by quite a bit, honestly.

54:27Bill Simmons:I can't believe you're doing this. The Giants played Washington, and they played the Cowboys in the first two weeks. I can't believe you're talking us into this. That's minus 103. Tell me no. It's fine. I like your logic of let's throw all common sense out. Are the Chiefs going 0-3? Is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes going to go into Giants Stadium and lose to Russell Wilson and your boy Dayball? How about this? Are the Giants going 0-3? Sure. Sure they are. That was a good one. I enjoyed it. All right. So that's what you want to do? Give me, what's your favorite pick? What's the Ring 107? Okay.

55:22Oh, my pick for that? Yeah, give me your favorite. We covered it. I mean, we've already included it.

55:31Bill Simmons:I know we covered it, but let's hear it because I bolded a bunch of games. What do you got? I love the 49ers. That's my favorite pick by far of the entire week. I think the cards are fraudulent. And this is, you know, it's not like the 49ers are, you know, gangbusters, but I think it's just a nice, orderly, tidy win for them. we could also put the Seahawks in like laying the seven and a half against the Saints is ridiculous but Spencer Rattler is going to go into Seattle and win his first game straight up as a starter are you talking about putting them instead of the Chiefs yes yes I'm just offering other alternatives to you do you think that the Saints now the Saints defense has been you know decent not horrible do I think the Saints are going to win in Seattle no do you think the Chiefs Right.

56:18Bill Simmons:Okay. Am I worried about the Chiefs in Giant Stadium? Yes. Okay. I am a little worried. Well, we could do an alt-line, an alternate spread to get this down. We could do Seattle to like one and a half. Right? And that will get us to where we need to go. Yeah. Yes. Atlanta, Moneyline, Seattle. minus one and a half is exactly minus 120. Fine. So we could do that instead of the Chiefs. Fine. Okay. I'm convinced. I'm surprised you're worried about the Chiefs, but it's fine. I am worried about it. You don't think I should be worried about the Chiefs? Well, I mean, against the spread is one thing. It's a whole nother thing about them.

57:07You know, they can't lose to the Giants this week. That really hurts their season. All right.

57:14Bill Simmons:You want to do the Chiefs? That's fine. I think you're right. It'll be more fun too if they lose and we can be like, oh my God, I can't believe we took the Chiefs. So you have the 49ers. Oh my God, we took the Chiefs. It's funny that we're debating it. Well, it's a pretty sad statement on their season. I have the Pats. Are we throwing the Jags in here? I'm convinced. I like it. So our fifth one, we can do... You like the Cowboys, the Rams. You don't want to do Titans or Jets. No, can't. Bengals. Bengals plus three. I love the Bengals plus three, but then we look at ourselves in the mirror and say we bet on Browning on the road.

58:02Like, what do we...

58:03Bill Simmons:We bet on Browning against Brian Flores. Right. He has beat Flores before, Browning has. Are we sure the Eagles don't have a little, people aren't giving us enough credit, we have to lay the smack down kind of stuff? I'm fine with leaving them alone. I kind of don't really want to, I don't feel super convinced that we should mess with them, even though I think the Rams are the right side. I kind of don't want to mess with that one. Well, we're running out of teams because then that leaves the Seahawks. Nope. That leaves, we could do something with the Cowboys and the over. What? We're doing totals?

58:46Bill Simmons:Well, I mean, if we wanted to use our parlay for that, or we could just do the Cowboys minus one and a half. I'm fine with the Cowboys minus one and a half. I mean, I think this Bears team, their whole secondary is out. Like half of them are out for the season. And like I asked you earlier, Nate, tell me one thing that you've seen out of the Bears. They can't run the bar. One good touchdown against the Vikings in week one. Right, to start the game. The dramatic, stark difference between the first series of the game for the Bears and what Caleb Williams' numbers are after his completion percentage is through the roof, The efficacy, you know, all of the EPA stuff for him.

59:34First series of each game has been on point. And then that's it. He's barely a 50 % accurate thrower of the football. All right, you know what? Here's what we're going to do.

59:45Bill Simmons:We're making the Cowboys your pick and we'll make the 49ers a joint pick. Okay, good. And then I'll take the Pats and the Jags. And then we'll agree on Falcons Chiefs together. This episode is brought to you by TikTok. Did you know you can use TikTok to connect even more with the sports you love? It's not just highlights, it's everything around the game, including the sports community. Find breakdowns of classic basketball plays, deep dives on baseball stats, even videos on how athletes train and recover. There are people teaching strategy, sports, history, even ways to improve your jump shot.

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1:01:22Bill Simmons:All right, let's do today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel. Ringer 107, four and six after two weeks. The picks. House loves the Cowboys in Chicago. The case being, I haven't seen one thing I like from the Chicago Bears. Fair enough. Dallas could throw the ball. Dallas has, this is one of the great kicker mismatches too, where we have Aubrey on one hand, the greatest kicker of all time, which with this new kickoff roll, It's like they're guaranteed three points every time they get the ball. And then God only knows who's kicking for the Bears this week. So Cowboys minus one and a half in Chicago grabbing that.

1:01:59Bill Simmons:We are grabbing the Jags minus one and a half at home against Houston. They've been a soap opera all this week. I think it actually helps them. This feels a little bit of a kitchen sinky type game for them. And I'm not a believer in Houston at all. All right. Then we have the Pats plus one and a half at home. They're a home dog against 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who has been bad any time he's pressured, against a Steelers defense and especially a run defense that has looked pretty abysmal. They're missing dudes. They're missing Highsmith, probably Joey Porter. They weren't 100 % healthy to begin with.

1:02:36Bill Simmons:TJ Watts on a milk carton at this point. Left side of the Pats line looking better. Look out for Travion Henderson in this game. I liked how the Pats, something's happening with them offensively. We've seen Drake May when he actually gets protection. There's something pretty good in there. So Pats plus one and a half. It's not a homer pick. I picked the Pats to have the worst record in the league last year. I actually think the Pats might be pretty frisky for the next couple weeks. 49ers minus two and a half. We don't even know who the quarterback is. Is it Brock Burry? Is it back jumps? It doesn't matter.

1:03:06Bill Simmons:I don't care. I've seen enough of the Cardinals. Yeah, we've seen enough of the Cardinals. We've seen enough of their backups to the backups, D-backs. So 49ers minus two and a half. And last but not least, we're doing a little parlay. Moneyline. Atlanta Falcons, we believe, will absolutely positively win in Carolina. This is a game in week 16. I'd be nervous about it, not week three. I just think too many weapons. And Carolina's terrible. I think Carolina's the worst team in the league. And then House really wanted to put the Chiefs in here.

1:03:39I'll take it. I do. I'll own it. I really want to put the Chiefs in here. Yes, I do.

1:03:45Bill Simmons:He's going Andy Reid versus Brian Dayball. Patrick Mahomes versus Russell Wilson. Yes. The Chiefs cannot go 0-3. That was another thing you said. Maybe even a little kitchen sinky for the Chiefs, not wanting to go 0-3 heading into, you know, this is like one of the easiest games in their schedule. So that will be our Ringer 107 for week three. Hopefully we can get over 500. All right, that was today's Ringer 107. It was brought to you by FanDuel. remember lines and odds are subject to change. House, how are you feeling about the Clippers situation? It seems like it's now 50-50 whether the other owners want to punish them.

1:04:27It feels like the vibe's coming out. And it also is the case for sure that Silver seems fine with this lingering over the league into the season. Well, I think he's going to take his time.

1:04:43Bill Simmons:Yeah, I think he wants to do this correctly. He's not going to rush to judgment because people on NBA Reddit are upset he hasn't decided what to do yet. I think this is going to take a while, but I don't think he's stalling. I think he's going to do a real-ass investigation and try to figure out what happened so he can punish them correctly. It looks like the timeline is sufficiently in advance of the All-Star game so that if the punishment includes taking away the All-Star game from the Clippers, they could give it to the Lakers, of all things, still keep it in LA. Everybody's already got their travel plans to LA, but that would be one of the ways to punish the Clippers.

1:05:20Well, I mean, that would punish the people

1:05:22Bill Simmons:going to the All-Star game because Staples Center sucks. Whatever it's called now, the crypto. It's like a double-A arena compared to Intuit. I'm just saying. That would really suck. Timeline-wise, it seems like that's sort of roughly it, right? If you give the law firm until mid-January, if part of the punishment for Ballmer includes that? Too much smoke. Oh, I agree with this. I still don't know what happened, and I still want all the facts to come out, but there's just too many payments right around time when Kawhi needed a payment, and not looking good for the clips. What did you think of my theory?

1:06:03Bill Simmons:Like, one of the things with the punishment should be they should just move to Seattle and call it quits. Just like, we tried. Since 1984, we've been trying. It's obviously just never going to work here. And we're just going to start over in Seattle. And we'll leave the Intuit. We'll sell it to the Lakers. So they sell Intuit to the Lakers. The Lakers get to play an Intuit. And Ballmer has to build a brand new Intuit in Seattle. That's his punishment. He moves to Seattle. Yeah, that's his punishment. He has to build a new arena in Seattle. He has to build the same stadium in Seattle. You have to build the Aspiration Dome in Seattle.

1:06:37With trees. With fake trees everywhere. Aspiration 2.0. Carbon trees. Yes, I love it. Just trees and fake sunlight. I'm all the way. He's fine with Seattle. I mean, you know, the whole Microsoft thing, it all makes sense. Really crazy. You take a villain and turn him into a hero. That's the punishment.

1:06:54Bill Simmons:I was thinking, I mean, I'm not the first person to make this point, but this Kawhi, the entire thing of going into business with this dude, all the stuff it costs them, all the players and the draft picks, plus this scandal. It has to be the most damaging transaction in the history of the league. I don't even think you could compare it to anything. Wow. The most damaging transaction in the history. It's already retroactively one of the worst trades of all time. It's not worse than Luka. It's not worse than Luka. They end up with Cooper Flagg. It's not worse than Luka. They don't get Cooper Flagg.

1:07:30Bill Simmons:But in a roundabout way, at least somewhat worked out. Would you trade Anthony Davis? It hasn't worked out at all. All right, just forget all the dumb reasons behind the trade. Would you trade Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg for Luka? Fuck no. No. How strongly can I put it? All right, what if I threw Max Christian? Fuck no. What if I threw Max Christian? Have you bet on the NBA? Oh, you can't bet on MVP. Luka, I got him at 7-1 this summer. I'm loving that ticket. Luka is going to win the goddamn MVP this season. That's what it is? I don't think it is that anymore. I got it this summer. He looked great in that Euro thing.

1:08:11Bill Simmons:I'm looking right now. Hold on. Awards. Unbelievably, I've not looked at this. SGA plus 150. Jokic plus 350. Luka down to plus 380. See, great price for me. I'm happy. Closing line value. I can put the ticket in a frame and say, oh, I had to back win. The best odds are Giannis at 12 to 1. because he ends up on the Knicks? No, just Bucks in a week conference. Him putting up like a 32-12-6, like single-handedly dragging them to a three seed. I know it's only September the 18th. Two MVPs, two in a row, that's it. People will be fine with us waiting a month to talk about the NBA. But I just want to ask you, who do you think is the second best team in the East?

1:09:00I think it's Cavs

1:09:02Bill Simmons:Knicks in whatever order you want Drop off Is that the correct answer? Who do you think it is? I like the Knicks better than I like the Cavs This season, the answer to me is the Cavs But I just wondered if you had a wild card FanDuel has Cavs To win the East, plus 230 Knicks plus 320, and then it goes Orlando plus 550, Hawks 9-1 Those Hawks odds, we were on that Remember when it was like 17-1 or 18-1 for them to win the East. Detroit. I mean, the funniest thing is, after you get past Orlando, then you immediately go into the Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee territory, but then somehow Philly is in there at 14-1 like they have any chance.

1:09:44Bill Simmons:I did enjoy Skinny and Bede, though. Did you see Skinny and Bede? No, I haven't. I haven't. Oh, he's skinnier. My timeline right now is great. I'm thrilled. Good best of luck. I wish him the best of luck. You seem a little dubious. Yeah, I would say Cleveland, Knicks. And then what's interesting with the West, the Lakers still have the fourth best odds and the Clippers still have the fifth best odds, even though we don't know if there's going to be like, God only knows. What if Kawhi's contract just gets voided? No, they're not doing that. Minnesota has the sixth best odds at 12-1, which I do not fundamentally understand.

1:10:23Minnesota, to me, is either the third or the fourth best team. They have to be. it's either them or Houston in the three spot

1:10:29Bill Simmons:that's right there's no question how do the Lakers have better odds than Minnesota the market that's all dumb Laker enthusiasm Dallas 25 to 1 get exciting for you at all San Antonio 30 to 1 nothing Angelo Russell's playing guard for the Mavericks come on I was going to actually start NBA homework next week I've done nothing I'm in the same boat I haven't done anything either but yeah we're like within within five weeks of the season now yeah um all right house happy gambling this week good to see you I will uh I'll see you on the ringer gambling show on Monday and on this pod in a week good to see you can't wait all right that's it for the podcast thanks Joe House thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well I'm gonna be back on Sunday night with cousin Sal and you can see me on the Prestige TV podcast on Sunday night talking about Task Episode 3 as well and new rewatchables coming Monday airplane.

1:11:35Bill Simmons:So that is the schedule. Enjoy the weekend. Please stay safe. I want to see them When we start at a long stay I don't have Feelings with them

1:12:08Bill Simmons:pg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. This message is brought to you by Mariner. It takes the right team to help develop an athlete's talents. Managing your money works the same way. You've ever thought, am I getting the most out of my financial plan? You're ready for Mariner. With Mariner, you get an advisor backed by a full team of specialists. So everything's working together toward your goals. Take the next step in your financial journey with Mariner.

1:12:49Bill Simmons:Investment advisory services offered through Mariner LLC and SEC registered investment advisor. For more information, visit Mariner.com. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods. It's hot out there, folks. Whether you're planning a family road trip, backyard barbecues, or a watch party, you'll find everything you need to beat the heat with the quality you expect from Whole Foods Market. Find sales on best of summer fruit, stock up on cooler friendly drinks and discover no antibiotics ever meets for the grill. You know, something like a New York strip steak plus made in-house kebabs, skewers and sausages.

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