The Rockets' Rise and NBA League Pass Rankings With Zach Lowe, Plus Week 12 NFL Picks With Joe House

14:28Joe House:Memphis, New Orleans, his salary dump.

14:30Bill Simmons:Somebody needed to dump a salary.

14:32Joe House:There was an Adams-Valanchunas exchange between Memphis and New Orleans that was mostly salary related. But I had him in my top 100 players. Really? We just did our—I just—first of all, you get to, like, 80, and then it's 80 to 130 is just eye of the beholder. And I'm just like, this guy is a one-man offense almost. Like, his offensive—his offensive rebounding is, like, 28%. He's a one-man offense. He's such a weapon for them. I'm just rewarding. And he's, like, got a little juice back defensively, too.

15:06Bill Simmons:Not putting Jabari in the KD trade was brilliant by them. Just waiting that out. And I still think that turned out to be an okay trade for Phoenix. I think it accomplished some of the stuff they needed. I don't think they were going to do better. No. But I've actually liked watching him on this Houston team. I don't feel like he's an afterthought. And in a weird way, he's the one that tilts it because sometimes they'll just have him out with KD and with Shangoon. I think they've even, like, they've played a little with the two centers and those two guys. Yeah, that's what they started it last night.

15:40Bill Simmons:I don't know if they won't finish games like that. Sometimes they will. They'll float it out there. But I think it actually works with them. It's weird to think he can basically be a two guard. He's not a two guard, but that's how they'll use him sometimes. He soon was hurt.

15:57Joe House:We didn't even see him. We haven't seen Finney Smith yet. Right.

16:01Bill Simmons:Reed Shepard is starting to happen. Well, so that's the other thing. So there's this Reed Shepard subplot. and I think it's going on a scale of one to 20. It's probably like a 17 or an 18, how well it's going compared to where. I don't think I've ever heard of a one to 20 scale. I think you just invented that. Yeah, it's already eight and a half out of 10. I was obviously dubious. Some of the preseason stuff worried me a little bit, but they kind of give them the car keys sometimes. They'll give them like stretches for like five minutes were like, just, you're in charge. Here you go.

16:38Joe House:I mean, they kind of have to because he's the only guy they have that's really like that. Plus or minus a random Aaron Holiday game like last night. Who I've always liked. The first couple games, he looked so in mud defensively, like just getting turnstiles by anyone and everyone. He's kind of settled down a little bit. Like he's never going to be a plus defender. He's always going to be hunted. He does make plays, but he has been a little bit more just, I'm not rolling over or getting blown by in the open court every single time easily. And offensively, he's profiled as a good player and he looks like he's going to be a good player.

17:15Joe House:I think this team is, I just don't even know what to make of them. They're awesome. The numbers clearly suggest they're awesome. Their offense is just so weird. 40 % offensive rebounding, it's crazy.

17:25Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's weird, but they really only get the traditional old school fast breaks if he's playing. Right? Yeah. Otherwise, it's a little slower and it's a little more half court, but in a way that no other team in the league looks like. The Shengun thing is probably the most shocking part of it. That and Thompson was doing a little of this last year with the top of the key beating guys off the dribble, almost like a ISO offense with everybody spread out. But he seems way more comfortable with it. And I got to be honest, like the team makes sense. Like when we did the over-unders, I think I went a little under on them.

18:00Bill Simmons:and I was just like, I have too many questions, right? It was 52 and a half. And I, and I was like, I have questions about this. I don't know if Shepard's going to be ready. I think, I wonder if their ball's going to be too stagnant when we watch them. It's just everybody doing their own thing and everybody else watching that person. It's not like that when you watch it, even though it's a lot of ISO ball, but it's, I feel like everybody's included. And then the other thing is, you know, the body language doctor is just watching intently. I think they have great chemistry. I haven't seen Durant on a team like this that's like, they're very competitive.

18:33Bill Simmons:I think they love Shang-Goon. He's kind of a badass. Like, he's, you know, he's got a, there's an anger to him that, in a good way, that I really like. Like, he'll get really mad if he doesn't get a call and he just runs easy. A little like Lukasz. But this is like a really competitive, physical nightmare of a team. They killed the Celtics.

18:55Joe House:And Durant feels like he's found a couple of little brother types that he really likes. Jabari Smith Jr. just mimics his every move in practice and warm-ups. And Durant is clearly like, I'm going to make sure you're okay, Reed Shepard. I'm going to compliment everything you do well. I'm going to pat you on the butt. I'm going to talk. I'm going to scream when you do great things. He's enjoying that role with those guys. Yeah, this team is...

19:22Bill Simmons:Has he been on a team like that where he was big brother? because Phoenix was obviously not like that. And if anything, it was like this partnership and he's playing for Booker's team and it was uneasy from the get-go. And then Brooklyn was just whatever that was.

19:37Joe House:You'll have forgotten about this as most normal people would have. There was a stretch in Brooklyn and I can't remember if it was pre-Harden or post-Harden where Kyrie was shockingly hurt or absent and Harden was absent. Harden or Simmons, whichever one was there at the time. And it was Durant and a bunch of role players. It was like Durant and Edmund Sumner and like random guys. And people, you could tell, I think he even said like, this is so much fun. I'm having most fun.

20:03Bill Simmons:Oh, it was early Jacques Vaughn, was that? I don't know.

20:05Joe House:And people with the Nets were like, this is the most fun we've ever seen KD have. Maybe that is something that reminds me of this. But not that these guys are talented as a whole. No, this team is, I'll tell you the stat I'm monitoring. Okay. So you mentioned ISO ball, right? KD is a great ISO guy. Shen Goon, we talked about his ISO game. Ahmed Thompson is like, can create a good floater out of nothing against any defender. They are, I'm looking at it now, 20th in turnover rate. And they don't force a lot of turnovers yet. ISO teams, generally one of the benefits of playing that way is you don't turn the ball over a lot.

20:39Joe House:If they can start tilting that aspect of the possession game to their advantage and keep the rebounding where it is, and they just become a team that's going to bludgeon you in the possession game every single night, they become very, very dangerous.

20:54Bill Simmons:What are they? I forgot to look this up.

20:57Joe House:What are they in assists? Are they... Let me see here. They are. I'm looking at it now. 30th in assist rate. 30th in assist rate. So again, that's another...

21:12Bill Simmons:It's not a red flag because it's the way they play. No, it's big to how they play.

21:16Joe House:If you counted misses as assists, they would be like self-passes. They would be number one. I mean, I half joke about it. They have like a Durant run, Durant and Shengun like do something offense, run a couple, run a set, and then the other half of their offense is just shoot and we'll get the rebound.

21:35Bill Simmons:Yeah, it's weird to say this about a basketball team, but the way they play sometimes reminds me of a hockey team where it's just like just keep shooting on the net and we'll just have guys flying in there, big physical guys trying to tip in or whatever. It's a really interesting team. Like right now in FanDuel, they're plus 650 to win the West. OKC's even and Denver is plus 430. And I think we, I think all of us, Legs and I talked about it last week. You did too in your pod. It's OKC, Denver, and then a drop.

22:09Joe House:I apologize to Rockets fans when I said that.

22:11Bill Simmons:I'm sorry, I got to figure out your team. Right. But I think that going from Denver down to Houston, I think that that distance is going to shrink a little as the year goes on with Houston. And here's the other thing. I don't know anyone in the East that, like if Houston's in the East, that's the favorite in the East, I think. I don't think anyone in the East can hang with them in a seven-game series the way they're currently constructed. We'll see. There's some things that could go sideways. The Shepard piece could go sideways. Um, they haven't had an injury or anything yet. Like there's lots of things that could happen, but, uh, I'm really, really impressed.

22:48Bill Simmons:They're tough. And by the way, we didn't mention email.

22:51Joe House:So he's got to be loving everything about this team. I mean, talk about a team built in his image of like, cause you want to kick your ass. Like you, we want, we want you to, at the end of this game, have bruises and feel like you don't want to see us again for a month.

23:02Bill Simmons:That's the Rockets. After that Celtic game, I was like, I don't, if these teams played 20 times, I don't know if the Celtics would beat them in any of the 20. Like with the way the Celtics are constructed versus the Rockets, it's like they'd have to make like 30 of 53s, I think, to win.

23:19Joe House:And to tie it back to now, you watched that game last night. I thought that was an awesome win last night for the Rockets in Cleveland. They got up to like a 20-point lead. Cavs bench goes crazy, gets them back into it. Lonzo's doing crazy stuff. Donovan Mitchell finally gets hot late third, early fourth. They cut the lead all the way down to one or two. They did like a 23-3 run. Maybe they even tied it. I can't remember. It got down to one or two. And the Rockets on the road withstand that, get some big buckets. Aaron Holiday makes some big buckets. Shangoon makes some big buckets. And pull away for like, I don't know what that ended up being.

23:52Joe House:They got it back to 11 at one point. That's like a, that's a real professional basketball win

23:58Bill Simmons:for a good team. I've watched a lot of Rockets this year. They've had probably five moments already this season where they're like, need a basket. And then it's like Kevin Durant's like, I got this, guys. Let me just get my little 15-footer in traffic that nobody's blocked for since 2009. That's two. We drafted two teams. We drafted two teams. We're going to take a break, and we're going to keep going. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel, putting you in control right from tip-off with my favorite sport, even though I also love football and baseball, but basketball. That's right.

24:35Bill Simmons:You get to choose your reward. Play it safe. Go for it. Feeling bold. that's your move, whatever your style. You are in control. We had House later in this podcast talking about basketball, and he thinks the two undervalued teams right now, Toronto and Phoenix. He does not think the market has caught up with them, so go check them out. No matter how you play, Fando's giving you the power to choose your reward. Own your game this NBA season, which has been awesome. Head to Fando.com slash BS to make your pick, get in the game, and play it your way. Must be 21-plus presidents like states or 18-plus in prison in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming.

25:08Bill Simmons:Opt-in required rewards are non-withdrawable. Restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements, and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Apple Watch. Real talk for a second. You think you're crushing it with sleep? You're getting eight hours, you're doing everything right, feeling great about it? Well, using the Apple Watch is kind of like checking game film. It breaks it all down for you. Sleep duration, bedtime consistency, interruptions, gives you a play-by-play of exactly what happened while you slept.

25:48Bill Simmons:No questions asked. My wife has been on this from the get-go. She's studying, it's like the All-22 in NFL. You tweak a few things, cut back on late caffeine, maybe actually go to bed when you say you will, boom, you might actually start waking up feeling rested. Apple Watch helps you figure out your sleep so you're not flying blind anymore. And you can find out more at apple.com slash Apple Watch Series 11. iPhone 11 or later required. All right. League pass draft. We're going to zip through this now. Houston was the one we really wanted to spend some time on. Who do you have? So we have Denver and Houston so far.

26:21Bill Simmons:Who's your third pick? San Antonio. I had them well. So we've had the same top three.

26:26Joe House:Doesn't need an explanation. I'm curious how they get through this stretch without Wemby plus Harper plus Castle for the next few games.

26:33Bill Simmons:Hot take. Without Wemby, still really fun to watch. Get a little Luke Cornett, Olenek combo, et cetera. We get to watch Darren Fox kind of try to figure out who he is on this team. Castle, Harper, I like all these guys. I like watching them.

26:47Joe House:Can I get Fox and Wemby for a week? Right. Just one week. But, yeah, I mean, they're still fun to watch. Kelton Johnson had a nice season. Sohan's doing Sohan stuff.

26:58Bill Simmons:If you had to put an over-under for Darren Fox on the San Antonio Spurs, what year and what month would you give? I don't know. A year and month.

27:07Joe House:I was going to say... Is he there in 2029? I would go no. I would set the over-under at two and a half years. Okay. I think this is a great problem to have. I don't think the Spurs feel like this is a problem at all based on what I've heard.

27:20Bill Simmons:Because they're not going to win the title this year.

27:21Joe House:Everyone's rushing this whole process. They're like, look, we already have injuries. This is one of the reasons you get a second star. The first one gets hurt. And these young guards are going to have ups and downs. and we're going to be able to play. They're going to try to play all three of them together.

27:34Bill Simmons:This is a non-issue right now. Do you think they're in their 2013 Warriors phase or their 2014 Warriors phase? So 2013 is Warriors. Surprise. Oh, my God. Wow, they won a series. Oh, they just got their ass kicked.

27:50Joe House:2014 is they lose to the Clippers in the Sterling year and Mark Jackson. Oh, I think they're even, I think they're closer to 2013 Warriors. That's what I have as well.

27:58Bill Simmons:This is fun. Whoa, look at us. Hey, we won a playoff series. It's about where we're going. They're two years away from being where the ceiling comes in, I think.

28:09Joe House:And just, I mean, it goes without saying, but it's hard to miss a Wemby game because four ridiculous things are going to happen in every single game. Even if he has like a random four, 15, 12-point game, he's going to do four things on defense where you're like, that's not even a real thing that just happened. What was it, Friday night?

28:26Bill Simmons:When did they play Golden State? Was it Friday night?

28:28Joe House:They played them twice. they had a baseball series. I think it was Friday, Sunday, Thursday, Saturday.

28:32Bill Simmons:One of the ones when Butler was in the last minute and Butler, it was a fast break and Butler for some reason decided he could challenge Wemby and take it to the rim. And it was a huge part of the game. It was like, it was tied or it was at one point. And Wemby did some, he blocked it and it was hard to tell which arm he blocked it from. He was like a fucking octopus. And I, so that was the lady, I was like, I want to see the replay because I couldn't tell if he swung around and blocked it this way or blocked it this way. And then they showed the replay and it was his left hand, but I had no idea which arm he used.

29:01Bill Simmons:You just don't know. He might have a third arm. Look at that. He might have a third arm.

29:07Joe House:So yeah, I take the Spurs three. No further explanation. Now it's going to get interesting because I think we're going to have very different things. Oh, not for me.

29:13Bill Simmons:The number four is clear. Really? Yeah. Move your mic closer to you so we can still hear you. It's the Detroit Pistons. Oh my God. Yeah. Yeah. Oh yeah. Talked about a little with legs last week. I had them 11th interesting

29:31Joe House:I mean it's a lot of brute first of all 11th is way higher than they were coming it's actually I had them 15th before 11th now they're a battering ram they're not the most attractive you know I'll make the case

29:41Bill Simmons:and I don't think they'll be here two months from now but when I talked about them last week like it was more like I'm really interested in what's happened to them and they moved in they have a couple new guys right Robinson's a new wrinkle, Levert's a new wrinkle but just what's happening with them competitively, what happened to Duren, who I can't wait to talk about where I had him in Ringer 100 what's happened with Cade just that team's on a winning streak as we record this and it's just not surprising if you watch them it's like another team like Houston these competitive motherfuckers who just want to win every game, who want to rip your heart out of your chest and Duren they'll be 11th for me in a month but right now the Durham piece has been fascinating for me like for him to just become basically Dwight Howard he's like a 23 and 11 night after night like just kind of brute forcing everybody it's like I didn't have this on my bingo card I think he's 22 I'm gonna he might have a more

30:47Joe House:I'm not saying better he might have a more refined offensive game now than Dwight Howard ever did. Oh, he doesn't.

30:55Bill Simmons:And he's not as good of a shot-bocker as Dwight. But I'm just saying like that force who's like...

31:00Joe House:No, I'm saying he might have a more refined offensive game now than Dwight ever did. Like his face-up game is really good. I agree with that. Okay. I think he should be an all-star. I haven't sat down and looked at the... God only knows how to even build the rosters anymore with this stupid new thing that we're doing.

31:16Bill Simmons:Honestly, he's in the running for 13 All-NBA for me. If we were doing it after 13 games, which we wouldn't. but

31:22Joe House:he had a hot start to last season too and it faded but he looks like he's a different player defensively I've always been a big Dern guy this is way ahead of schedule like this is a complete all-star level explosion I gotta be honest

31:37Bill Simmons:I did not see this one coming with him like I think he's a guaranteed 22 and 12 a night now right

31:43Joe House:that's about what he's averaging

31:45Bill Simmons:but I like watching them and the curiosity of just what's going on with them was number four for me.

31:52Joe House:Can I ask you a Pistons question that's popular around the league? Whether they should make a trade? Well, no, that, we could do that if you want. It is interesting that Troy Weaver, much ridiculed for his Pistons tenure, currently pre-ridiculed for his New Orleans tenure with Joe Dumars. He did draft most of this team shoving aside the Killian Hayes pick, which didn't go great. And it is kind of interesting.

32:19Bill Simmons:I'm just marveling at this, Zach. The Trey Weaver, Zach No, no, no. This is incredible.

32:23Joe House:But you hear front office people be like, you know, he did. First of all, you don't credit him for Cade, right? And there was a Cade-Mobile debate in Detroit's front office that I can't remember off the top of my head which way he fell on that. Can't win-win, right? Win-win. But number one pick, getting it right, you don't get extra credit for that. Mobley going one,

32:38Bill Simmons:I think would have been pretty surprising.

32:40Joe House:Asar Thompson, he picked. But there was everything else he did around the team like made no sense and put all those young guys in positions to fail. And then they changed leadership And then they're like, oh, shooting. Veterans. That's a smart thing to do. But that's why he got fired. And then people are worried. He's had a bunch of big guys. People are worried the same thing is going to replicate itself in New Orleans. We're like, Queen's pretty good. Fierce is pretty good. But A, your value proposition on Queen was like way wacky to trade the pick he traded. And B, do we trust you to actually put the right pieces around these draft picks, even if they hit?

33:13Joe House:So there's an interesting Troy Weaver thing. The trade thing, I talked about it on my pod yesterday. I would posit the question to you. if you're a Trajan Langdon yeah you're 13 and 2

33:24Bill Simmons:I'm not doing anything

33:25Joe House:okay let me just ask you though forget you're not doing anything right now no one's doing anything the East is a little bit of a mess like Cleveland's a little meh New York's a little meh compared to expectations do you read New York's a lot of meh do you read 13 and 2 as oh my god are we like good enough to make the finals already and we don't have to do anything well they could make the finals or do you read it as like strike while the iron is hot and this should embolden me to be like even more aggressive if the perfect player i.e. Markkinen is actually available

34:00Bill Simmons:so Tobias has to be in that trade and I think he's important for this team because everyone says he's really important guy behind the scenes I just want to mess with it there's a Trey Murphy conversation that's not the Markkinen, I think Markkinen as much as I like him and he's awesome, I do think it shifts their team a little bit in a way that I'm not certain what direction I'm in. I know he's awesome.

34:25Joe House:I think he'd be perfect.

34:26Bill Simmons:I would just look at like my two guys are Cade and Duren. And if I added just an awesome, awesome, awesome score shooter and improved that side of this.

34:37Joe House:Smaller scale move.

34:38Bill Simmons:Like a slightly smaller scale than like, we are now doing the Desmond Bain trade with Laurie Markkinen.

34:43Joe House:We talked about this possibility yesterday. And I just don't know who the guy would be yet to like fit that.

34:48Bill Simmons:I feel like they could add her on the fringes. It's, listen, we've talked about this the entire time I've known you. What are your responsibilities when you actually have a chance to make a finals? Should you, do you have to think differently? Even if your timeline, you think it's this, but now you have this and it's like, hey, there's the finals. We might make the finals. Do we just move this timeline over here?

35:06Joe House:Also, there's the question of like, so if you think you can make the finals as is coming out of this ravaged East.

35:14Bill Simmons:I think they could.

35:16Joe House:Nothing is impossible, right, in the East. And this team is clearly a very good team. Do you have to begin thinking of, should we think about winning the finals? And is that where the train stops for this current roster, given who's coming out of the West? I mean, like, do you have to, like, when you talk about your responsibility when there's a window, the window isn't just the East. I mean, it's cool to say if we make the finals, we have a puncher's chance. We've seen some East teams make the finals and not have a puncher's chance.

35:44Bill Simmons:This brings me to a new segment on the Bill Simmons podcast. It's brought to you by no sponsor yet. It's called, What Would Sam Presti Do? I think that would be a good segment. Okay. What would Sam Presti do if he was running Detroit right now?

35:59Joe House:Probably nothing.

36:01Bill Simmons:He would do nothing. Yeah. He might add around the fringes. I think his weird Sam Presti computer brain would see all the possibilities and be like, even if we made the finals, we'd get killed with Laurie Markkinen. So why would I go all in? I'm only going all in if I can make the finals. I'm only cashing in if it's my version of like Giddy for Caruso, where it's like I'm now adding this and now we are ready to win the title. And I just don't think Markkinen wins the title for them. Like you got to measure yourself against this OKC juggernaut that also might have the top five pick. Unbelievable.

36:39Bill Simmons:I just wouldn't go all in. And I like the team and I think the team likes each other. But I think if you can steal Trey Murphy and not mortgage everything, I think you have to think about it. I don't know. Trey Murphy. The price for Trey Murphy is going to be pretty high.

36:54Joe House:Not Lorry Marketing high, but high.

36:57Bill Simmons:Probably two to three firsts, right? Like good firsts.

37:01Joe House:Yeah. And I've got to put in somebody like Ivy or Holland. that's why with the Celts if it's just

37:07Bill Simmons:if it's the Simons expiring and you can have 26 we'll give you the worst of our swap with San Antonio in 28 we'll give you an unprotected in 31 we'll give you a Yugo as much as I love him doesn't New Orleans have to at least have a meeting yeah

37:25Joe House:for sure okay so you picked Detroit fourth so you love watching this team right now I do in a month I'll have solved them and I'll have moved on. Are you slightly concerned that have there been any fights yet? I feel like Isaiah Stewart and Ron Holland are dialing it back a little bit.

37:41Bill Simmons:I'm so glad you brought that up because it was part of my case. It's like watching a hockey team where they might mix it up. There might be a third line brawl in the third period in a 5-2 game. Because they do. Ron Holland's itchy. Stewart's itchy. Those guys are coming around

37:59Joe House:with their chests out. Those guys, both of them, can really guard. I mean, Ron Holland is a menace.

38:05Bill Simmons:Do you feel like Thompson went up a level two on that?

38:07Joe House:He was my pick for most improved player this year, despite the fact that his brother was the odds-on favorite.

38:12Bill Simmons:Wouldn't you say that's a team that the other teams are like, ah, fuck, we're playing Detroit tonight?

38:16Joe House:It's a great thing to be in the regular season, the off-fuck team. Like, oh, God, they're on the schedule now, but we just played this other team.

38:22Bill Simmons:So who are the off-fuck team? The off-fuck finals is Detroit versus Houston? Oh, I mean, no.

38:27Joe House:I mean, I don't even know. Houston is the ultimate. Like, anytime Steven Adams is involved, if you're like, oh my God, this is going to be so much. By the way, Steven Adams, only 25 years old. Somehow. I just read this. Somehow. Just turned 25.

38:41Bill Simmons:32. All right, your team, your number five pick.

38:43Joe House:All right, I didn't do this to annoy you. I'm picking the Lakers. I had them fourth on my list. I thought LeBron's debut went swimmingly, particularly on offense. And I'm just, I'm legitimately fascinated by JJ working the three of these guys together over an extended period of time. the star power is undeniable and that now includes Austin Reeves the supporting pieces are kind of interesting Austin Reeves who was 28-7-4 the first 12 games of the year I mean I was afraid of where I was going to put him in my top 100

39:15Bill Simmons:like Austin Reeves stats were better than any Paul Pierce's for the first 12 games to put it in context

39:22Joe House:like how are they going to guard how are the lineups going to be I think it's the whole thing is great theater LeBron being back is great theater I love it I'm all in not on the team as a contender, as a league. I had them in the top half of my list.

39:35Bill Simmons:As you know, it's always tough for me to look at the Laker uniforms. But I will say the LeBron, what he said I thought was very encouraging. I don't know if you saw that quote. I didn't see the comments. It was basically effectively, I'm LeBron James. I can fit in any basketball team I want, and I can be a useful basketball player, and I'm not worried about how I'm going to fit in. It's like, that's good.

39:55Joe House:I'm glad he said it out loud. That's all we've been waiting to hear. Other than, how about more of that and less of cryptic statements from agents and tweets and Instagram posts from Cleveland's practice facility? How about more of that? You weren't talking about the ringers, Rich Paul, were you?

40:14Bill Simmons:As you know, I'm a fan. It's my guy. As you know, I'm a fan. No, listen. I don't like the passive-aggressive Lakers shit, and we talked about it. I thought it was weird, and I don't know why LeBron has done this and continue to do this for the last eight years. Yeah. I don't know what would be a better situation for a guy his age than to have two awesome offensive players. Rich man's Nimes Kata and DeAndre Ayton. Wow, Nimi getting an early shot. Nimi with more PR. Wow. They're basically the same guy, let's be honest. Nimi's good. Nimi's good. Nimi's good. And if you just switch them one day and they did like the Nicolas Cage, John Travolta face-off, I don't think people would realize they'd switch faces for like two weeks.

40:59Bill Simmons:This is a nice team. And by the way, I think it's good if you're 40, 41 years old to have Luka Doncic just handle most of the day-to-day stuff. Seems great. And this is like LeBron's one of the smartest players of all time and he knows he can fit into wherever they need him. The question will be, the end of the game will be a little weird. That's always been weird with the biggest guys ever. Even going back to like, you know, Magic when he came back in 96. That was weird. Like, should I take over here? What do I do? Larry Bird's last couple years, same thing, when Reggie Lewis was ascending. Like, do you want me to?

41:33Bill Simmons:Like, what should I do? That's the part that'll be fun. But I'm with you. I think it's a defensible pick.

41:39Joe House:Honestly, I kind of feel like Austin Reeves would have the ball to split. You guys defer to me. Like, I got this. Like, crunch time, I'm him. I'm good. Like, Austin Reeves is ready for that. You wouldn't think about trading Austin Reeves?

41:51Bill Simmons:For what?

41:53Joe House:Of course I'd think about trading him. For who?

41:55Bill Simmons:Somebody awesome. who just fits this kind of... If Luka and Austin Reams are your best two guys, can you actually compete for a real title? Can you win four straight rounds? If those are your top two guys. I don't think this team can in this conference. But two years from now, the team they build?

42:13Joe House:Yeah, I don't... I mean, I think there's no reason why a team built around those two guys couldn't win. I mean, we've seen Luka get to the finals with Kyrie.

42:20Bill Simmons:You know what the answer is? Don't trade Austin Reams. I'm just being a dick. Okay. I was just trying to plant seeds. Because I don't like Laker fans.

42:26Joe House:Well, I mean, the Laker fans should remember who took the over on the Over Under podcast. Only one of the three of us did. Is that true? Yeah. It's a long season. It is a long season.

42:35Bill Simmons:Luca, what does he play? 60 games a year?

42:38Joe House:LeBron's already been hurt. And yet, and yet, they're 11 and four or whatever they are. 11 and four. Yeah. So I picked them fourth. That's four? I picked them fourth.

42:50Bill Simmons:Well, fifth. Fifth. So we went Denver, Houston. You're right. Okay. San Antonio, Detroit, Lakers Alright, so you have the sixth pick? This is, you're just gonna be upset Why? Because you're gonna think this is a ridiculous pick

43:05Joe House:You're not picking Boston? No

43:10Joe House:I'm taking Charlotte It's insane

43:16Joe House:Honestly, you probably need to take a week off Take a beat I love watching Charlotte I had them 23rd I love watching Charlotte I'm not going to apologize Do you love watching Charlotte or do you love watching Con Caniple

43:30Bill Simmons:LaMelo came back Yeah and he sucked He was 6 of 21 or something They're just fun I just want to see all the pieces I'm enjoying it I watch a lot of Charlotte Look I get it

43:40Joe House:I've been tricked by Charlotte for the last three seasons straight being like I like some of their players I know all the names This isn't a power poll

43:49Bill Simmons:It's a league pass ranking The heart wants what the heart wants I enjoy watching Charlotte. They're 4-10, 4-11. 4-11. Bad, bad. But they're still bad. They've been in these games. Like, they're in the vicinity when you watch them. They lose overtime games.

44:02Joe House:Single-digit loss to the Pacers last night. Well, well done, everybody.

44:06Bill Simmons:That wasn't great.

44:07Joe House:Oh, my God. I like watching Charlotte.

44:10Bill Simmons:Knipple's been the best rookie in the league. Yes, he has been. I'm learning about him as a player. I like watching the rookies. I like watching Edgecombe. I like watching Flagg. Those people don't play for the Hornets. The flag in Edgecombe. I just have enjoyed the Hornets. In a month, I won't watch them anymore. But right now, I've been test-driving them, and I had them slightly over another team that I think you're about to take. This is the crazy sixth? Sometimes I like bad basketball teams, Zach. But like I'm at 18. My favorite Clippers team ever was the 2011 before Chris Paul team for to have season tickets for when they had heavy Baron Davis.

44:47Bill Simmons:Yeah. Before they traded him. I really enjoyed watching that team. They were like 32 and 50. I had a great time.

44:54Joe House:They also had...

44:56Bill Simmons:Oh, yeah. Okay. That's fine. I have a great time with the Charlotte team. I'm not going to apologize for it. I do like Eric Collins.

45:01Joe House:I do like Eric Collins. Well... He's a highlight for me.

45:03Bill Simmons:That's another league pass thing. When they had the Milwaukee game, Eric Collins had the broadcasting performance of the year. Con... It was like Miles Bridges went for a dunk and it kind of got blocked. Oh, and Con hits a three, yeah. Set out to Con! Yes! Went like fucking lost his mind. It was great. I love that dude.

45:25Joe House:Well, that's an easy pick for me not to make. Go ahead. Go chalk. I'm just going chalk. Warriors. Oh, wow. I had them lower. I mean, Steph Curry is amazing to watch. Like watching Steph Curry. Well, unfortunately, he doesn't play all the time.

45:41Bill Simmons:True. You know who's always in the lineup? Con Canipple. Is he... Here's why I go and stay lower.

45:50Joe House:frustrating yeah but frustrating in a way that makes you think about what is the ceiling of this team what are they going to look like in the playoffs what riddles does Steve Kerr have what's the ceiling of this team Charles Lee has no riddles to solve Charles Lee's just like I can get through another season of this shit the ceiling of this team is low

46:06Bill Simmons:I don't disagree by the way do you want to work on a documentary about the two weeks when it seemed like Jonathan Kaminga had finally found a home in Golden State I was thinking about stylizing it like it's like maybe it's 10 days and it's just day one day two and then by day 11 it's like yeah it was a fun 10 days though he's figured it out

46:31Joe House:but you know he's Sean Marion you know it's gonna happen again there's gonna be a two week stretch in January where or December probably December because by January it'll be like I think January 15th yeah

46:42Bill Simmons:January 16th he won't be on the team wow the Al Horford just slipping it in there Oh, it's just my guess. I don't have inside info. Possibly washed up Al Horford has been depressing.

46:58Bill Simmons:Draymond doesn't look to shoot ever. Shooting threes. How many field goal tips is he at?

47:06Joe House:I'm going to guess. I feel like he's just not interested in shooting. Well, I mean, none of them are interested in shooting around the basket other than Kaminga. Draymond's at his regular seven again.

47:17Bill Simmons:I did enjoy the San Antonio game when he tried to fuck with Wemby I thought was probably my favorite moment of the year

47:22Joe House:following that up with the fan thing in New Orleans he's getting a little gamey

47:26Bill Simmons:it's always something he's starting to get a little gamey Steve Kerr complaining about the schedule one of my favorite NBA staples in this case he was kind of right it was kind of nuts how many cities they played in

47:37Joe House:so here's the thing I was in Minnesota last week they were whining about the schedule because they had Denver on a back-to-back and Denver was rested. And I believe they have that again in Minnesota at some point. And I'm like, look, guys, zoom out a little bit. Like, if your schedule sucks now, you're going to have all these little cookies in other parts.

47:59Bill Simmons:Like the Lakers with two Utah games in eight days.

48:01Joe House:Yeah, you're going to have little cookies at other parts of the schedule. It all evens out. The schedule's too long, Zach.

48:07Bill Simmons:Well, that's a different thing. We all know that. Everybody knows that. Everyone knows that, including Adam Silver. He doesn't care. He's like, wow, we can get eight more Peacock games. Let's get it to 80. And then two more Amazon games, 82 right there. It should be 76 should be the maximum. And it really should be 72 or 70. And it would make the league better. It would make everybody.

48:28Joe House:And everyone knows this. It's not. By the way, everybody. No one disagrees. There's no one. How you know you're right is there's no one on the other side being like, you know, we really need 96 games. The season's too short. There's no one making the other argument.

48:39Bill Simmons:Yeah, that's a good point. Because the other thing is they're like, well, it never happened. It's too much money to give up. It's like, how much fucking money does everybody need? How much money does, like, the Celtics just sold for over$7 million. Devin Booker's going to make$75 million a year. Like, what's an acceptable money level for everybody?

48:56Joe House:It's all these owners, too, that are worried. Now, I'll suddenly get cold feet about expansion because, well, we get the expansion fee, but then we have to divide this massive TV money up in two more slices, one 30 second. That won't affect them for 50 years. Oh, man, which gigantic pot of money is more gigantic for me? Okay, Seattle, sorry, you got to wait because NBA fucking Paris is coming up next.

49:18Bill Simmons:I said this on my mailbag pod. There's some Vegas momentum again. Great. And I don't know whether they want to get an expansion team in there because they're worried about New Orleans in 2029 just jumping there

49:34Bill Simmons:or maybe New Orleans goes there. But something's going on in Vegas. that people are a little abuzz with the Vegas piece. All right. Could you do a 31-team league? Is that too weird? Sure, you could do it. It's doable. Have the imbalance conference.

49:51Joe House:I mean, they change the lottery odds once every eight years, 10 years. You can change these rules, make them more complicated. We're behind schedules,

49:58Bill Simmons:so I'm going to take Chicago 8th. Okay. Wow. I'm sorry. I like watching basketball, Zach. Yeah, we all like watching basketball. And I like watching basketball that is different than the basketball that I watched a year before, which in the last 25 games of last year, the Bulls all of a sudden became really fun to watch for whatever reason. They are fun to watch. The Bulls are fun. They play super hard, super fast. I like watching the Bulls. Here's the Bulls. They're a boxer that has great fights with everybody else. Right? They're like Evander Holyfield is a great example of this. Like Evander Holyfield wasn't one of the best heavyweights of all time.

50:37Bill Simmons:but had like 10 awesome fights. And if you just like took 10 Holyfield fights on a desert island, even going back to when he was a cruiserweight, you'd have a great time watching his fights. Chicago, game after game, just a great time. Great hang. It's the games are like, like the game last night, it'll be like 123 to 121. And somebody will have the ball with 30 seconds left with a chance to go ahead or tie.

51:01Joe House:And yesterday there was a Vooch game winner. Huge mistake by Tumati Kamara. Love Tumati Kamara. You've got to play no threes, D. No threes, D. Good chemistry. Yeah.

51:10Bill Simmons:A lot of guys that I've liked individually that I'm happy they're in a good basketball situation. And their over-under was like 32. They're going to shoot over that. I think they're in the 40s. Should they trade for Anthony Davis?

51:29Bill Simmons:So he's from there. And that can go one of two ways with these guys. Either they're excited to go home or they want no part of going home. I would assume he's more on the side of, I'd rather not go home. I don't know.

51:44Joe House:I'm interested to see what they do. Because now they're 6-1, 6-6. Now they've won a couple in a row, so they're back to being over. As long as they're around here, I think inertia wins out. Let's just play our cards and free agency down the line.

51:57Bill Simmons:Is that your expert opinion? Because that's been the last 15 years personified?

52:00Joe House:Well, you would think if they're better than expected, maybe that changes the equation one way or another. But if they're just, who knows?

52:06Bill Simmons:Anyway, do I get to pick? What's their ceiling? They're not passing Detroit, New York, Cleveland. Is the four spot, like, in play for them? Because, like, right now, Toronto's 10-5. And they're the two seed. I mean, I just feel like the four spot's in play for everybody.

52:24Joe House:The four spot's in play for everybody except your beloved Charlotte Hornets and below. But I think... history. I think Miami, Cleveland, Knicks, Atlanta, I think Philadelphia, depending on Embiid, obviously.

52:38Bill Simmons:Toronto's in there.

52:38Joe House:Yeah. I think all those teams have slightly higher ceilings than the Bulls, maybe. Is there, did you, I didn't hear your pod yesterday.

52:47Bill Simmons:Did you talk Anthony Davis with the Pistons?

52:50Joe House:Yeah, I hate it. I wouldn't do it. I don't, I hate is strong. It's just not, I mean, we're sitting here talking how all in should they go? who should they give up stuff for. I just don't. They have the number two defense in the NBA and they desperately need shooting. I just don't think they need him and he's not the guy that I would give up stuff for. I'm going to go further.

53:11Bill Simmons:I think what's happened with... I don't even get why people are bringing it up. I think what's happened with Paul George and Joel Embiid would scare the living shit out of me. Well, forget it. For anyone with miles on them who's injury prone. I'm just talking about this year. I'm just talking about even if you frame it as a... If I'm Detroit, it's not even a sure thing. You're not trading for a 26-year-old Anthony Davis. You're trading for a 32-year-old. I've had a lot of injuries, Anthony Davis. And I have to wear goggles for the rest of my life when I play basketball because I got, like, poked badly in the eye.

53:39Bill Simmons:I don't know. The miles have added up for him. So you're a no.

53:46Joe House:I'm a no as well. On my Nico fired pod last week, I went through, like, 15 fake Anthony Davis trades. And I said the two teams that are getting brought up that I just don't see the fit with. or that I don't really get why they're brought up except they have a lot of assets, are Detroit and Houston. I just don't think it addresses anything that either team needs. Emei's blocking that one. All right, my pick? Yeah. Knicks. Okay. Just a lot of pressure. A lot of pressure.

54:14Bill Simmons:Had them lower.

54:15Joe House:Fun to watch. Good broadcast. Have some injuries now. Brunson came back last night, and Anobi's still out. Love watching Josh Hart. And just the ongoing Tibbs fired pressure how can you maximize Carl Towns the dance of how often he plays center how often he plays with Mitchell Robinson I love Macho Mitchell I love the whole Mitchell Robinson experience I like the free throws I like the offensive rebounds a lot of pressure on the Knicks and that makes for good good theater for me I feel like we'll be

54:47Bill Simmons:talking about them a lot over the years that was the ninth pick

54:50Joe House:ninth okay whatever it is

54:51Bill Simmons:um Yeah, I don't know what... I don't know what they're missing for me. Maybe there's a familiarity because we had them last year, but they haven't really caught my fancy this year, unlike this next team. Okay. The Hawks of Atlanta.

55:08Joe House:There you go. I had them pretty high.

55:11Bill Simmons:I actually should have, if you were just giving me the no Trey Young Hawks of Atlanta, I probably would have put them in the top six. I really like when, no shots at Trey Young here. A little bit of shots. I'm just saying I like the identity of the no Trey Young Hawks. It's really fun to watch, I think. I like all the long guys and the defense and some of their role players are fun. The poor Zingas, just whenever he plays, just throwing him on this team. but it's like watching somebody just pop onto a movie that you're watching like, hey, that guy. And Jalen Johnson. Oh, so good. I can't wait to talk about Ring 100.

55:50Bill Simmons:That was another one.

55:51Joe House:I'm feeling very good unless Porzingis misses so many goddamn games that it disqualifies Okongwu. I'm feeling really good about my Okongwu six-man-of-the-year pick from preseason.

56:00Bill Simmons:Yeah, that's a good one. Love that pick. Well, you talked about Detroit as their pressure on them to do something. To me, Atlanta is the team that actually should do something. They have real assets. They got to figure out this Trey Young thing. They have this giant trade exception where they could take money for a year and really do an interesting trade. And they have that New Orleans pick if they wanted to get like, if they wanted to dance in the fire. You can't trade that if you're the Hawks. You can't, but...

56:30Joe House:Could be the number one pick in the draft.

56:31Bill Simmons:You can't trade it, but... It puts them to the front of the line of trade conversations of the best guys that are going to be available.

56:38Joe House:Well, then that's just a who. Then that's because the New Orleans Pelicans are 2-13 and trending toward a season. Now, there's a world in which Zion stays healthy and they trend toward like a regular 32-win season.

56:52Bill Simmons:They don't have their picks, so they're going to try the whole time, which we've seen. So they'll probably have five or six.

56:56Joe House:You would see 2-13 and be like, wow, they're right there at Brooklyn and Indiana. You're going to be guaranteed a top five pick like at worst. There's a world in which that doesn't end up being the case, but I don't think right now I don't think you can trade that pick if you're the Hawks. You're not good enough to trade that pick. Just put the top three on it.

57:11Bill Simmons:Just don't. Why didn't they call us? Okay. I've met Joe Dumars. Just call it. Just call three people who have no stakes in it. Just like, hey, what do you think about Unprotected here?

57:23Joe House:Can you imagine if that leaked out? They called you and I? No, like Bill Simmons stopped. You'd be the most hated man in Atlanta. They would never give you a credit. They would never even sell you a ticket ever again.

57:35Bill Simmons:This is an awesome draft, but I don't know what we've seen from Boozer. And I want to see Boozer more, but I do have some questions about him as like this is a guaranteed three franchise guys. I want to see Boozer more, but I'm not sure I'm there with him yet with that. So what do you do with Trey then? Because I have the Hawks very high. You know what you do? I like what? Can I play act this? Sure. Vivek, it's Bill Simmons, owner of the Atlanta Hawks.

58:02Joe House:I knew it.

58:03Bill Simmons:What are you up to? Hey, had an idea. What do you want? What do you want from the Kings? You got to take money back. Whatever. They'll make a dumb trade. That's got to be your first call if you want to trade anyone on your team. Do you want Levine? Because he's under contract next year.

58:20Joe House:DeMar DeRozan plus salary? Do they even have expirings? DeRozan is a semi-expiring. Levine has a player option.

58:28Bill Simmons:The Kings somehow built this terrible team that also has no trade flexibility.

58:32Joe House:Let's not talk about the Kings.

58:33Bill Simmons:We've done too much. So after Vivek, my next call would be the LA Clippers.

58:40Joe House:I can't wait to see how they react to a season that isn't going well.

58:44Bill Simmons:John Collins, Bogdanovich. Bring John Collins home, baby. Give us an unprotected 2032 first. And Bogey, former Hawks galore. Yeah. Just give us a 2032 first. You can have Trey Young, and you don't have your pick this year, and maybe I'll save it. It should be illegal to have Trey Young and James Harden on the same team. You can't do it. Well, then you would trade James Harden, I think. That would be your next move. you wouldn't trade James Harden and Trey Young for each other in the same deal, correct?

59:10Joe House:I just, I can't, I don't even, I need about four hours to digest that one. Okay. You enjoy Atlanta though. Their bench guys are fun. Yeah.

59:19Bill Simmons:I just, Viet Creati's on a heater right now. I enjoy the Hawks. Yeah. And I did a mailbag the other day and I said Gaia instead of gay. Yeah. Do you know why I had his name wrong? Because I haven't watched the Hawks this year. they've always been on one of the other TVs and not the main TV. I've never heard the announcers. So I thought it was Gaia. It's Mo Gay. I know it's Mo Gay.

59:40Joe House:They love Mo Gay. I am interested in the, I want Trey to come back soon because I want to see, okay, you watched this, Trey Young. You saw the team play pretty well without you and pass more and move more. I mean, what did they go, 8-2? So far, yeah. The ceiling of the non-Trey Young Hawks, realistically, is like here, like pretty good team. the ceiling of the Trae Young doesn't adapt as Gamehawks but reintegrates with the scene probably like here the ceiling where everything clicks and you get a Trae Young who's committed to a different style of play is here and that's interesting to me so I had them pretty high on my list too

1:00:17Bill Simmons:can I make a Trae Young point really fast before we go to the next one yeah do you know what Trae Young was shooting on three pointers this year before he got hurt I'm gonna guess 26 % 192 okay He was taking five a game. Only five games.

1:00:33Joe House:Yeah. I'm not kidding. Can I not? He didn't have a great shooting year last year.

1:00:36Bill Simmons:Year before 34. Yeah. Year before 37. Year before 33.5. It's one of those things where you think he's this awesome three-point shooter and he's just not. And we now have a lot of evidence because he's about to hit his 30s. So I think this is who he is.

1:00:50Joe House:What's his career shooting percentage?

1:00:52Bill Simmons:His career is 35. And his best year ever was 38 in 2022. too.

1:00:58Joe House:This is part of the reason why I like the mystery of what does it look like if he plays his game a little bit more differently and some of the 32-foot pull-ups are traded for not all, not, he's always going to take all pull-up threes, but like two of those a game become two spot up threes or two passes or two whatever's a game.

1:01:14Bill Simmons:Okay, who do you got next?

1:01:15Joe House:For the sheer pleasure of watching Anthony Edwards destroy people when he's in the mood to do it, I'm going to take the Minnesota Timberwolves and also to watch Rudy Gobert call for the ball a lot and not get it. It's a good time.

1:01:25Bill Simmons:You know what we're learning with our league pass rankings? I'm more interested in the teams that are either different than they were the year before or are just super weird. But to me, I don't even really need to watch Minnesota that much because I know what they are. I know what I'm getting. And I want to use my time to watch the weirdo teams like Charlotte. And then by January, I'm going to be moving back toward the Minnesota side.

1:01:54Joe House:That's a good, interesting approach to the season.

1:01:56Bill Simmons:I also saw Minnesota in person. And I just like when teams don't have a point guard that can do anything, it just physically hurts me.

1:02:03Joe House:Well, isn't that kind of interesting? Like Anthony Edwards is now kind of, is not kind of, is the official point guard of the Minnesota Timberwolves. But he's not a point guard.

1:02:11Bill Simmons:He dribbles the ball up after it was made basket or a rebound. That doesn't mean you're a point guard. You're a zero guard.

1:02:18Joe House:And so I watched them with the eye of it. What's the answer to this question? Do they need to do something? What can they possibly do?

1:02:26Bill Simmons:I think they're stuck with what they already did because they thought Rob Dillingham would become something and they don't play him. They're playing him a little bit now. He's getting his chance now. Gonna have to. Let's take a break and then my next pick is worth a discussion. All right, special part of today's episode. It's brought to you by McLoB Ultra. It's the official beer partner of the NBA. They know the best moments on or off the court are served cold. So we're going to crack open a little six-pack. and was supposed to be about the biggest moments happening right now in the NBA, but we just did a whole podcast about that.

1:02:58Bill Simmons:We will have our coldest play of the day, which is going to be, I'm going to talk about six guys. We just had to hand in our Ringer 100 rankings. Six guys that shocked me. I'm going to bounce these off you. Okay. That I had on my list. First, I had AJ Mitchell in my top 100. I had him 82. Was he on your list? 89. What were the, if we had done the over-unders with House, and I had said to you, by the way, in six weeks, A.J. Mitchell is going to be in my top 85 for Ring 100. What were the odds have been? Like 50 to 1?

1:03:38Joe House:Probably longer than that. I'm not even positive I knew what A.J. Mitchell looked like. He got in the finals game one, I think, for a hot second, and it was like a complete disaster, and that was the end of the A.J. Mitchell finals experience. Look, again, like 75 to 150, it's just eye of the beholder, prisoner of the moment, whatever. But those guys on Oklahoma, you don't get on the floor for the Thunder unless you are a winning basketball player. And he's been very good. Number two,

1:04:06Bill Simmons:Khan Canippo had 66 with BJ Edgecombe, 67. And I always mail my list to House because House will tell me, and one other friend we have. House will always tell me, that's ridiculous. You can't do that. He's like my shit detector. Initially, I had Knipple and Edgecombe in my top 50, and he's like, that's ridiculous. They're rookies. You can't do that. So I put Knipple 66. Where did you have him? Higher? Where was he? 62. Oh, fucking House. He's really good. And actually... And he's been consistently really good. So I handed him this, I think, Monday, and he's had two really good games since. I think he's moving higher.

1:04:50Bill Simmons:He's just like our kind of player, like does everything, rebounds, moves the ball correctly, open shooter, tries on defense. Okay. My third guy, I'm going to go all the way up to number 26. Okay. Which is where I had Jalen Duren. Where did you have him?

1:05:10Joe House:That's pretty high, and I say that as a massive Jalen Duren. fan. I don't know where I had Jalen Duren. So you had him probably in the 30s? Lower than that. I don't want to say where I had Jalen Duren because it's too low. I'm a big like, you got to prove it to me for a little longer guy, but he's top 50. Okay. He's top 50. He's 26, so that means you have him over like Bam out of bio. I had him Bam out of bio at 27. You have him over, like I'm giving the track record. I had Aaron Gordon at 30. I have Aaron Gordon 37. I'm giving the track record of guys like Jaron Jackson Jr. and DeMonta Sabonis a little more leeway.

1:05:49Joe House:The Jaron Jackson Jr.

1:05:51Bill Simmons:track record? Yes. Of five rebounds a game and just fouling out?

1:05:54Joe House:He's made all-star teams.

1:05:56Bill Simmons:At some point, you got to blame him a little bit for him making max money and his team not winning really now for the entire 2025. Jalen Duren gets a lot of love in the rest of this podcast. You're going to hear it all. Yeah. Next guy. Fourth guy I wanted to mention. I had Denny Abdi at number 22

1:06:17Joe House:that's high yeah that's high

1:06:19Bill Simmons:I figured you would react that way

1:06:20Joe House:but again I'm more conservative so I had people I kept like proven veterans who have not played very much this year over Denny Abdi he did it last year he's very good

1:06:33Bill Simmons:he's even gone up a higher level I had him in the 30s to be clear I had him in the 30s just think he's can be he's proven to me that he can be the best player on a good team if you had a good team around him. I think he could be... He's very good.

1:06:47Joe House:I actually, while doing these rankings right now, I actually had just in my head, because of where they are in the rankings, in my rankings, they're near each other. I was like, what would happen if Atlanta called Portland? It was like, Trae Young for Denny Obdi is straight up. Portland hangs up. Which is kind of a crazy thing to think about, right? I think Portland's like,

1:07:07Bill Simmons:let's talk about that New Orleans pick. What's happening there? Fifth guy I wanted to bring up. I had Shangoon, 14. I don't mind it. I had him 19. Okay. I had him one behind Evan Mobley, and I had him one ahead of his teammate, Kevin Durant. And I said, I'm in Thompson, 19, which means I had three Rockets in the top 20, which makes sense because I think they're the third best team in the league.

1:07:37Joe House:that's bullish on those guys, but I think that's... I had actually Durant higher than you.

1:07:43Bill Simmons:You value the years of experience slash results when you do these lists. Yeah, I don't know how to do the top 100.

1:07:49Joe House:I'm new to the top 100, so I don't know how to do it. I don't know how to do it either. I try not to agonize too much over it because it could take up a whole week of your time, and I don't have that kind of time. Shen Goon is one of my biggest risers from end of last season to this season. He was high last season, but he's sniffing the top 10 conversation. I had him in the low 40s after the season last year.

1:08:09Bill Simmons:So he's jumped the highest for me. By the way, defensively, you hear no noise anymore about like,

1:08:14Joe House:I don't know, he's like another Vooch. You can't build a good defense around him. He's like a pretty rugged, nimble defensive player.

1:08:20Bill Simmons:He's at least figured out the verticality part. He knows where to be. Yeah, he knows where to go and he tries. I do not think he's a minus defensive player. I don't either. Last guy I want to mention. Number nine on my list. Right after Stephen Curry, you might have heard of him. I have... Cade Cunningham. Had him ninth. I had Cade twelfth.

1:08:42Joe House:So I had him ninth, Brunson tenth, Booker eleventh. I have Brunson eighth. Yep. Cunningham twelfth. Very fair. Booker fifteenth.

1:08:55Bill Simmons:The... Which, again, I don't... I'm not...

1:08:59Joe House:Like, what did you do with Jalen Williams? Hasn't played yet this year. I had him twelfth. I had him thirteenth. I didn't know where to put him and Moby Moby 13th

1:09:08Bill Simmons:still waiting for that last Moby lead

1:09:10Joe House:might be too low on Booker 15 might be too low on Booker where'd you have Maxie?

1:09:18Bill Simmons:20th

1:09:18Joe House:I went head over heels on Maxie I just

1:09:21Bill Simmons:I went prisoner of the moment if you can play 40 minutes a game and run an offense and take every big shot down the stretch and just do it again a day later I'm in so that's what I had okay You good with that list? Austin Reeves, top 20?

1:09:36Joe House:No, but he was... Oh, my God. I don't think that's... I'm not asking funnily. I had him 32. Ooh, I went 21. 21? You just said if you can average 30 a game. He's averaging 28 points a game.

1:09:49Bill Simmons:I thought from, like, 18 to 33... A lot of fluidity. I was shocked by how deep and awesome the guys were.

1:09:57Joe House:Well, you also have things like, what do I even do with Kawhi Leonard anymore? Who, when he plays, is like... I put him in the 60s.

1:10:03Bill Simmons:Did you put Joel Embiid in your list or not?

1:10:05Joe House:Yeah, he made my list. With those guys, I just put them toward the end because it's like, I don't know. You're awesome, but I don't know what to do with you.

1:10:13Bill Simmons:That's it for today's six pack. If you want even more, go grab yourself a pack of Michelob Ultra. Plus, they're getting you closer to the action than ever with a chance to win exclusive prizes, including courtside tickets and more Michelob Ultra. Superior's worth playing for. Enter now. Michelob Ultra.com slash courtside. Michelob Ultra courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open to U.S. residents 21 plus. begins on October 1st, 2025, ends on June 30th, 2026. Breath. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at mclobulture.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details.

1:10:44Bill Simmons:Thanks, Zach. Well done. My next pick, a team that I didn't think was going to be good. I've been surprised. They have a really, really good bench, which I didn't really see coming either. The Toronto Raptors. Hey, there you go. Um, I like Sheed in college and I remember he fell to like the mid forties and he's just the classic, like, why don't guys just, why don't teams just take guys like this every year? He's going to be a fucking annoying pest on defense. This is like, look at Chris Dunn on the Clippers. Who's Chris Dunn's going to be in forever. Just look for guys who are going to be like Chris Dunn.

1:11:24Bill Simmons:That'll be like your ninth or 10th player in your team. You're going to, he's going to have an impact. Anyway, he's on there. Mamu, who I know you love. Love Mamu. just in general like they go 9-10 deep they haven't had an injury yet and Scotty Barnes even though his stats are basically identical except the field goal and threes are up a little I just I think he's gone up a level and just from eye test right is that like the stats say not really

1:11:51Joe House:you are reciting what I said on my podcast that you didn't listen to yesterday or two days ago whenever it was like you look at the numbers and you're like oh same guy like I watch him play I just see a much more sophisticated and engaged basketball player. I love the way he's played this season. That's a good way. Sophisticated and engaged is good. Unselfish. There's a physicality with him. Right decisions, guarding the hell out of everybody on defense. I love the way he's played.

1:12:14Bill Simmons:He was one of my least favorite expensive players to watch. And now he's off that list. I did not think. I remember Perk said. Top six. Yeah. And I was like, that's ridiculous. They're probably going to be top six. I might have lost that one. It might be 0-1 against Perk. Long season. Long season. Long season. But the bench helps them, though, because even if one of those guys gets injured. And I'll say another thing. Brandon Ingram, who was available for a year, can go get a basket. Yeah. I think we kind of forgot that it's like, I don't know if I'd be that fun to play with. He can't really guard anybody.

1:12:52Bill Simmons:He's got size, doesn't really rebound, but he can go get a basket. They're making it work right now. Yeah, I'm dubious long-term, but with how weird the East is, maybe. And you look at the schedule, and this is one of the things, I remember this happened with Sacramento a couple years ago. You know, they've played Cleveland three times here in the first six weeks with no Garland in any of the games, right? And they've already beat Cleveland twice. They got to play, I think in this whole stretch, Indiana twice, Brooklyn twice. Everything's kind of moved their way. There was one game they played Cleveland, there was no Mitchell in the Cleveland game.

1:13:26Bill Simmons:I think it's like the only game he hasn't played. So I think they can add up some wins before. I looked at their schedule in mid-January, and all of a sudden it's like the all-time gauntlet where they're just playing every hard team.

1:13:37Joe House:I'm going to be there over the holidays, and I have a great slate of Toronto games for the holidays. Oh, yeah. Orlando, Golden State, Denver in Toronto over Christmas and New Year's.

1:13:47Bill Simmons:So could they get to like 20 and 10 before the schedule gets hard? I think they could.

1:13:52Joe House:Yeah. I mean, they're good. They have it working right now. And I'll just say just deep cut. I've enjoyed the last week of the Jacoby Walter experience. I have my eye on it. I like what I'm seeing. You know, he and Grady Dick, it always seems to be like one or the other. You know?

1:14:06Bill Simmons:Grady Dick, like crazy high net rating. The whole bench. Mamu was, last time I checked, was like plus 18 per 100 possessions. Abhaji. That was a nice trade. Yeah, Toronto. So far. I mean, they're 10 and 5. A couple of those games are down the wire. Schedule's been easy, but they're definitely a little better than I thought. Who do you have for your next one?

1:14:23Joe House:I mean, you're just making this too easy for me and I'm being too boring. At some point, someone has to take the defending NBA champions who have the number one defense by such a margin that it is absolutely laughable. And just for the sake of A, the Chet leap is kind of happening. B, it's just so fun to watch them get to a gear on defense where you can see the other team be like, we just got to go to the next game. Like, we can't even do anything. and they're just taking the ball, run, take the ball, run, block shot, run. It's just, if you like defense, it's just absolutely riveting TV.

1:15:01Bill Simmons:To bring another boxing analogy that you probably won't get, sometimes there are these boxers. It's actually happening in UFC too. It happened with Islam last week. These boxers that are just awesome and it's like you can either, Islam and UFC just kills everybody. He's like a takedown guy. These guys always think they can go stand up and that Islam's going to fight them. And then Islam just tackles them and they're on the ground for five minutes, just like getting worked. And then the round ends and the next round happens the same thing. I personally don't love watching Islam. I would much rather watch stand up punching guys.

1:15:36Bill Simmons:But some people are like, this is the greatest fucking thing I've ever seen. And I think OKC is kind of like that. But I think if you like watching an awesome, awesome, awesome defensive basketball team with a transcendent guard, just day-to-day just fucking kill teams. This is your team.

1:15:53Joe House:Well, the transcendent guard's a big part of it because they also have star power in the traditional sense of highlights, jaw-dropping plays, and J-Dub will add to that when he comes back. Their defense is... They're a nightmare. They are...

1:16:08Bill Simmons:And also the A.J. Mitchell thing out of nowhere. I mean, that was the big wrinkle.

1:16:12Joe House:I like watching their role players play. Like, Kaysen Wallace is fun to watch. Aaron Wiggins comes in and puts in 15 points. This is the right time to take them. There are 103 points allowed per 100 possessions on defense, and number two is 109.6. I mean, that's just absolutely crazy.

1:16:26Bill Simmons:Yeah, I was thinking like in the mid-90s, that would have been like 79 compared to everyone else. All right, I'm going to take Philly just because of Maxine Edgecombe. I also enjoy Quentin Grimes. I can't decide if it's a constant trade showcase for them or not. It's obviously way more fun when Embiid doesn't play for them because it's a bummer to watch Embiid. Crowd likes the team. I think the Philly home games have been really fun. Crowd's into it. They're like, we like these guys. The minutes with them are hilarious. You see Maxie's over 40 minutes a game. Edgecombe's at 37 as a rookie. He's 20 years old.

1:17:06Bill Simmons:I don't know if that's sustainable. I think this team, I think there's a world where this team tails off. I think they have their pick, right? I believe so.

1:17:17Joe House:There's a world where this team throws their hat. I think it's top. No, they don't have their pick. I think they owe it to somebody. Do they? Please tell me, not OKC. It is OKC. No, come on.

1:17:31Bill Simmons:Don't do that to us. I'm looking at my draft capital. Do you have a draft capital, Doc?

1:17:36Joe House:No. I just go to Real GM.

1:17:38Bill Simmons:Philly.

1:17:39Joe House:Yeah, to Oklahoma City, top four protected. So last year was top six, remember? And that was the drama. This year it's top four. So it's much more like it's certainly going to Oklahoma City this year. So OKC. I think I knew this and I think I took pills to make me not think. Yeah, nobody wants to think about it. The Clippers, Sixers. There's even like a weird jazz scenario where if the jazz are better than expected, Oklahoma City can end up with another lottery pick.

1:18:06Bill Simmons:It honestly might be frame them for some sort of illegal NBA thing where they'd have to have picks suspended time.

1:18:12Joe House:You can't joke about that right now.

1:18:13Bill Simmons:Can another team do that? What? can't they just like use AI to fake some Sam Presti calls? Just take the team down. What else is left? How do we stop this team?

1:18:24Joe House:How many fan bases do you want to piss off? And you want to sabotage the Hawks Pelicans. You want to go back in time and sabotage the Hawks Pelicans trade. And now you want to frame.

1:18:33Bill Simmons:This is a credit to Sam Presti and OKC. Like the only way to stop them is to frame them for some sort of NBA crime.

1:18:40Joe House:If you're going to quantum leap this, you have to go back. Wait, quantum leap was back in time. ahead of time. I don't know what Scott Bakula did in Quantum Leap. I can't remember. That's Scott Bakula, right? He would either go back or forward. You got to go help people, too. You got to go back and tell the Nets, don't do this Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett trade. Don't do it. You got to go back and I would tell them to do it. I know you would,

1:19:01Bill Simmons:but you got to pick a couple people to help. The Balmer one, definitely, like, don't put the 25 in there. Kawhi, just don't put that one in. Keep that one for yourself.

1:19:12Joe House:I'm going wacky now. would you have more to say I'd say Philly no you're up

1:19:16Bill Simmons:no I just said Maxie and Edgecombe are worth the press what do you even think of Philly like as a team I think the identity of that team which is yet to find its full fruition yet will be a delight when they end up with the three guards and people who run and Nick Nurse that's going to be a fun something it'll be the post and beat era which is probably already happening

1:19:38Joe House:so you're still just like this is a placeholder this team can't do anything real No, because nobody would ever take Embiid or George. Ever. I'm saying Embiid and George remain on the team. There's no, like... Oh, you mean like there's...

1:19:53Bill Simmons:Oh, my God, Embiid's looking great. I think it's done. Did you see him use the one leg? He was playing on one leg. He was, like, dragging the other leg. Like, Duncan did this for the last, what, five years of his career where it seemed like one of his legs just didn't really work anymore. He made it work. It's a little different for Embiid. What do you have next? I'm going a little bit off the board now.

1:20:14Joe House:Yeah. Miami. I had them as my next one. Well, I stole them. They're fun to watch. Super fast. Fun, weird style. Hawkeyes resurgence. Simone Fantecchio. Just shooting a million threes per 36 minutes. Andrew Wiggins. A little happier. Looks great. Bam's back. Ware is averaging like 18 rebounds a game over the last week. Tyler Hero's coming back. That's an interesting plot twist. Rogier. Oh. Sorry. Wow.

1:20:40Bill Simmons:And Norm Powell. Maybe he makes his all-star team this year. I don't know. So, talk about going back in time and stopping something. Yeah, I know. John Collins and Bradley Beal for Norm Powell. Basically, didn't work out. Ah. As you know, I don't like Miami or their fans. This team is very fun to watch. Very fun to watch. They brought back the Miami Vice jerseys. Yeah. Huge. I'm really glad that Hawkeyes is good at basketball again because I really enjoyed him as a rookie. Pella Larson. Pella Larson's interesting. And as you know, I mean, we always joke about islands. What warranted an island?

1:21:17Bill Simmons:Davion Mitchell Island. I mean, I basically had to fold it. It was done. It was empty. There were no people living there anymore, but he's back.

1:21:25Joe House:And always, always frisky on the trade market when they have stuff to trade. I have Utah as my next pick. Oh, they were going to be my next pick.

1:21:32Bill Simmons:So now we're going off the board. Utah is... I don't know if you noticed, but I took Charlotte like seventh. So I've been going off the board this whole time. Yeah. Listen, it's the first six weeks of the season. I'm just the heart wants what the heart wants. Utah, Markkinen's playing great. Unbelievable. The Kessler thing, which was a bummer. It is a bummer. Weirdly made them more interesting because now just lineups and I don't know what's going on. What do you think Markkinen is averaging points per game? He's 30. 30.6. Yeah.

1:22:02Joe House:It's like, oh my God.

1:22:03Bill Simmons:Night after night, 30 a game. Keontae George isn't my cup of tea. but he's been really good. Yep. I don't know if you're winning three straight playoff rounds with the best version of him seven years from now, but he's definitely a bad... I mean, that's definitely an asset for them. I don't know. What player from the past would you compare him to from a ceiling standpoint? That's a... Like, what are his... What are the best version of his stats someday? Like, 24 and 8? Yeah, 20. Yeah, something like that. Is the team winning?

1:22:36Joe House:I don't see why not. He's a completely different guy this year in terms of his approach to the game. It's a huge win for them. Look, Ace Bailey's playing. Ace Bailey started the other day. Kevin Love's involved. Slow Mo's back involved. I like Kevin Love. And either they score 140 points or the other team scores 140 points or both.

1:22:57Bill Simmons:They put a 150-plus burger on somebody last week. Yeah, it was an overtime game. Okay, Utah. Do you take them or I take them? You took them. See, it's about to get dark.

1:23:08Joe House:Yeah. We should speed around this a little bit. Before it gets dark. All right, let's speed through it. I'll take Cleveland. Boring, but good. Yeah, it's just early on with no garland. Hasn't been that fun. But they're, you know, they're fun. Donovan Mitchell heaters are really fun. What an incredible shot maker that dude is. The guy just makes both threes and shots at the rim, the degree of difficulty. And he makes it look easy. Like some of these pull-up threes in traffic that he's hitting or like, it's a crazy shot for a 6-3, whatever he is, guard to hit.

1:23:40Bill Simmons:They're going to get all their guys back and win like 15 straight in like January. It'll be one of those where it's like, oh, Cleveland, they've won 12 straight. They have, you know, and then that'll just happen. I have Dallas next, more from a train wreck standpoint, but just for flag scouting. I don't really like anything else that's going on with this team. D-Lo, it looks like the train has finally reached the last station.

1:24:03Joe House:Had a big game last night. Oh, did he? I didn't even say. Yeah, he did. And yet in another loss, they lost the buzzer to the next. I thought that was the worst call of the year. Which one?

1:24:12Bill Simmons:The foul? The offensive foul on the game. The hook on Brandon Williams? Yeah. First of all, they didn't call that one out of every five times. But to call that on that moment when he's about to score a game-time basket, like ridiculous.

1:24:24Joe House:Hey, look, you win the lottery from the 10th spot. Yeah, you're not allowed to complain. You can take a couple bad calls. That's a high pick for Dallas. They are a rough, rough watch. I just talking flag scouting only.

1:24:36Bill Simmons:No other reason. Just checking in with him, seeing what's going on, being relieved they weren't playing him at point guard anymore. Thank God. Thank you for not playing him out of position and ruining his confidence. Who do you have next?

1:24:50Joe House:Giannis is hurt, but he's still Giannis. I'll take the Bucs and Giannis and the Kuzma revival, baby. Yeah, until he goes like 0 for 6 one day out of nowhere. He's back. And Ryan Rollins is the real thing. Did you have him in your ringer, Hunter? I don't think so. Because I did. I'd like to see it a little more time. I had him in there. Portland's my next one. See, of all the teams that's left, Portland is the correct pick.

1:25:18Bill Simmons:Back to my boxing analogy. They're in fun games over and over again. They seem to be in these games that come down to the last five minutes. I've watched... I'm not saying I'm watching entire Portland games, but I've watched a lot of the fourth quarters and OTs that they've been in. the Scoot thing is lingering is lingering well it's an injury that they always say

1:25:38Joe House:four weeks and then it's like 12 just would like to see Scoot I know they're fun Portland is super fun to watch they're starting to get the injury thing like Sharp was out last night Drew's been out the last couple games they're starting to just not have a lot of guys

1:25:52Bill Simmons:Abdi was a borderline like 13 all-NBA guy for the first five weeks of the season I can't believe how good he is now and House was saying that this was a version of this was lurking in him in Washington. You could see it, but I don't think even House, nobody thought he was going to be a 25 a game guy.

1:26:10Joe House:That trade, I've talked about it on my pod. That trade was polarizing when it happened among front office people. I got it for both teams and just remember thinking like, this guy's good and his contract is crazy. Like, Avdi's contract is crazy good.

1:26:25Bill Simmons:He's a very good player. That's one of those, if OKC was worse, Presti, he just, Presti would have gotten him somehow. Like a Hamilton. sounds great but he doesn't need him because he's got I'm mad you took Portland

1:26:35Joe House:because we've now reached the point where it's getting dark I'm not that excited on this I'm excited to watch any basketball we're now reaching the point where I'm not that excited I will take Phoenix I had them next workman like dependable gritty this is the team Matt Ishbia said he was going to put together that they're going to put together tough a team the city can be proud of they play hard they defend they have a transcendent good chemistry highlight machine Dylan Brooks is causing a ruckus the minute he gets out on the court. They're fun to watch.

1:27:05Bill Simmons:Grayson Allen's been rejuvenated. Yeah. Booker finally looks like he's one of the best players in the league who's not one of the top best players in the league but that next level he's back in that conversation again. He was not for the last two years for me. Yeah, the Suns fans could settle down like a whiff. Gillespie? How about Gillespie? Well, but it's like on the one hand yeah, we're way more likable this year and we might have a chance to win between 35 and 40 games, right?

1:27:34Joe House:The schedule is about to get hellish for them.

1:27:38Bill Simmons:And it should be, the chest is out a little. It was out before the year. You did trade all your picks and all your swaps for the next six, seven years. Like, I'm glad you're more watchable, but settle down would be my advice to everybody involved, including Eddie Johnson, my arch nemesis. Don't... Eddie Johnson just needs, he just needs to settle down.

1:28:00Joe House:Don't tempt Isbjie. Don't tempt him. Because he's been quiet. He's been quiet.

1:28:06Bill Simmons:Just play it cool, man. But he has been playing. Have you heard from him for a while? No. Just let the team speak for itself. It's a way more likable team. Your star is reengaged. By the way, Malyage doesn't play. No.

1:28:19Joe House:Well, they have three centers. Three rotation centers ahead of him. And they knew he was going to be...

1:28:23Bill Simmons:One of them they should trade. Because there's a lot of teams that need centers. All right. It's really rough now. I'm going to take New Orleans next. Just because for the same train wreck for seven weeks of the year, just watching different... I wanted to see Queen, who only recently started playing. Fierce is better than I thought, although he's another one where I'm not what you're stealing as a team if he has the ball all the time. Probably not that high. We don't got to worry about that yet. I'm just thinking like eight years from now. But he's better than I thought, and he's competitive.

1:28:55Bill Simmons:You know, and Zion will come back eventually. This team could be higher on my next time we do this.

1:28:59Joe House:Zion came back last night and looked okay. Still, he looked good. He looked good. He's a good player. He just hasn't reached the level he was at before the injury in the play-in game. Would you trade for him? No.

1:29:13Bill Simmons:No. Uh, no. Would you trade Kaminga and a contract for him? Okay, stop. Why stop? I don't know. If you're like a smart, good team with a great training staff, you wouldn't roll the dice? I don't know. Would you trade Jalen Green for him? Would I trade Jalen Green for Zion? I have no idea what his trade value is. Would you trade Michael Porter Jr. for him?

1:29:41Joe House:Probably not. Probably not. This is really depressing.

1:29:47Bill Simmons:Jalen Green, would you trade Anthony Simons in a contract for him? Yeah.

1:29:51Joe House:Oh, okay.

1:29:53Bill Simmons:We're here. We've arrived. Why not?

1:29:56Joe House:Anthony Simons. He's non-guaranteed. These deals are non-guaranteed after this year. As it is, it has that weird thing where it cycles every year.

1:30:05Bill Simmons:Did I tell you? Well, my next pick. Oh, no, you have a pick. Yeah, don't steal my pick. I'll do it when we do our next pick. New Orleans is the sad situation. The crowd has never seemed more depressed or empty. It's really dark. But Queen is good.

1:30:19Joe House:Queen's good.

1:30:19Bill Simmons:Let's zoom out.

1:30:20Joe House:The main plot point is Queen is good. The idea of the trade made sense. The idea made sense. And Queen and Zion looked like a good offensive tandem last night.

1:30:29Bill Simmons:All the ringer draft guys like Queen, like we all like Queen.

1:30:32Joe House:They're just, they gave up too much for him. You know what's one small thing I really wish for the Pelicans? I just really wish that alleged shooting guard Jordan Hawkins could make more shots. That's all. Just every time he comes in, he's like, he just missed like seven more shots. He's been not good for two years. I know. All right. We've reached the by default stage of this draft. I will by default take a team who fell 11 spots from my preseason rankings. Orlando? Yes, to now. The Orlando Magic. It's just been... It's awful to watch. It's just been not fun. It's awful to watch. And I thought the project...

1:31:04Joe House:None of them seem happy either. I thought the project of the puzzle-solving nature of this would make for exciting night-to-night watching. And it just hasn't, in part because they're struggling. Like, they can't find the corner pieces anywhere. The puzzle's not really being solved. Suggs is like, I guess Suggs just can't play back-to-backs ever and will be on, his minutes are going up, but is he ever going to just be a full-time 35-minute-a-game player ever again?

1:31:32Bill Simmons:They had a really, really fun game against Houston that I watched the second half in the OT of. And I was like, all right, there's hope. There's hope. I mean, there's not no hope at all.

1:31:41Joe House:They're over 500, 8-7.

1:31:43Bill Simmons:Yeah, but you know who they remind me of? This is a watchability rating. You know who they remind me of, sadly. the year Kyrie's last Celtic year when Hayward came back and you watch them and it just was off. And it was like, this feels off. What's off about this? All of these guys are good. What's I'm watching this and something doesn't add up and nobody seems really that happy on a basketball court and something's what's missing. And you just kind of stared at it for three months and there was no answer. And then it started to leak out that this guy's unhappy. That guy's unhappy. This guy thought he was going to get more shots.

1:32:18I just wonder with Orlando, like, there's a happiness quotient with them.

1:32:24Bill Simmons:I'm in L.A. watching this team on my TV. Like, I'm not an expert on this. I'm not in the locker room. But something just feels off from a basketball playing standpoint.

1:32:34Joe House:I'm giving it more time. I don't disagree with you. I'm just giving it more time because they have found a way to get to 8-7, which makes them a game out of fourth in the East. So let's just see if the defense can see. He hasn't shot well. No, let's see how the defense, if it can find something like its level from the last couple of seasons, that it's starting to trend a little bit more that way.

1:32:56Bill Simmons:One more break and then we'll do the end. This episode is brought to you by HubSpot. You know why elite point guards make everyone better? It isn't just the no-look times. It's because they know everything. Who's hot? Who's tired? What the defense is doing? Which teammate needs a basket? Most businesses don't have that. Sales run one play. Marketing runs another. Nobody told service. the game plan has now changed. HubSpot gives you that point guard vision, one platform, full customer context. And that context is everything you need to win. Visit hubspot.com to learn more. Hey, it's Bill from the Bill Simmons podcast, FIFA World Cup 26 fans.

1:33:39Bill Simmons:Listen up. Is the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26? Michelob Ultra is giving away$1 million worth of FIFA World Cup 26 tickets and prizes. Enter now at MichelobUltra.com slash Superior Access slash FIFA World Cup 26. MichelobUltra FIFA World Cup 26, Superior Access, no purchase necessary. Open U.S. Residence 21 Plus begins on December 1st, 2025, ends on July 31st, 2026, multiple entry periods. Visit www.miclobaltra.com slash Superior Access slash FIFA World Cup 26 for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. Well, there's seven teams left. I'm going to take the Boston Celtics.

1:34:10Bill Simmons:Shocker. I couldn't believe you took them off the board for The last watchable team. Because the bottom six are brutal. Celtics, here's what's going on with the Celtics that's actually kind of fun. And I've actually weirdly enjoyed this season. But I'm not, I wouldn't recommend it for everybody. It's definitely not for everybody. Kata, a real guy. And his advanced metrics are just jaw-dropping. He has some of the best advanced metrics in the league. It makes no sense. Pritchard and Wright have a history of those guys. Jalen Brown has been, I think, a really good scorer as a number one option. We'll see when they play some of the harder teams.

1:34:52Bill Simmons:I've liked Jalen Brown's season overall. I like how he's playing. I was thinking about it watching being at that Nets game the other night. He was really patiently getting good shots and creating good things. I was like, this guy, he's getting it. Hugo, I like Josh Minot. Now we're getting to... No, just as energy random guys, but the team tries hard. They're over 500 miraculously. I don't know how much longer that's going to last. My dad not as happy though.

1:35:23Joe House:No?

1:35:23Bill Simmons:No, he doesn't like Joe's coaching this year. Why? What's the grave? He's threatening to demote. I'm going to have to have him on. He's really upset with the Simons yo-yo routine with Joe. I don't know if Joe likes Simons, but it's really upsetting my dad. My dad's like, he had 25 in the first half against Orlando, and Joe's buried him ever since. Makes no sense.

1:35:44Joe House:I had this conversation with some people who have come through here recently. It is almost jarring what a non-impact he's had on the team for 75 % of the season. He'll pop in a game, and then it'll be like, he played 16 minutes last night, was 2 of 7. I had one scout who was in town last week. We had lunch, and he was like, I think they should maybe start him over Pritchard just to see if they can get him going that way and get him more engaged. And I know they're loyal to Pritchard. Pritchard's been good, though. Pritchard's just a more competitive, feistier player than Anthony Simmons.

1:36:17Bill Simmons:The team would be better if they started Simmons. But my dad doesn't think Joe likes him. I'm not worried about this being aggregated because my dad turns 78 next week, and I don't think people really ultimately care what my dad thinks. But my dad, who goes to the games and watches them, is very upset with Joe's treatment assignments.

1:36:36Joe House:Well, the minutes would suggest he doesn't have a huge amount of faith in him as a winning rotation player.

1:36:41Bill Simmons:You score 25 points in the first half and zero points in the second half and don't get any minute. That's just weird.

1:36:48Joe House:I don't think Joe likes it. You did text me earlier this week that you wanted me to start the Jordan Walsh first team all defense campaign on my podcast.

1:36:56Bill Simmons:So Jordan Walsh had this moment against Maxie for three straight minutes. That was the most exciting moment. The real Celtic fans know what I'm talking about, where he just became Jonathan Isaac three years ago. Remember that Jonathan Isaac stretch where we were like, oh my God. And Joe has overreacted to it and started Jordan Walsh in the Nets game. I don't, to me, he's like, there's certain guys in the league where you bring him in and you throw him on. And if you're - You guarded Harden a game later and decently. The one I'm really interested is SGA when they play them to watch him try to guard.

1:37:34Bill Simmons:because on paper, the kind of guy, nobody's guarding SGA, but you want taller and you want to reach and you want him to hop around. I think he's like an elite defensive player. Not sure what else is there.

1:37:45Joe House:Is the SGA thing, is that you trying to brainwash a Western Conference team to trade like two first round picks for Jordan Walsh? Like we need an SGA stopper for the playoffs.

1:37:54Bill Simmons:I will say this though. I'm glad you brought that up. I do think he has value for a really good team because I think he can come in. I knew it. No, but I wouldn't trade him, though. Unless it was, like, a stupid offer. I think he went from, like, he's a G League guy to, wow, this guy can actually guard real scorers. Like, what he did to Maxey, I was shocked by. I think Maxey was shocked.

1:38:16Joe House:Are you at all concerned that Shireman is on the fringes of all this in year two? I'm not seeing it with him. Okay, so he was, what, 30th pick, so it's, you know.

1:38:28Bill Simmons:I'm going to whisper this one. I'm not seeing it with Garza either. I don't think there's anything there. from what I've seen so far. I wish them the best. Hauser's the one that, you know, that like for some reason, gravity has become the term of the year in the NBA and everybody who watch the studio shows are like, gravity, this guy's gravity, Steph Curry's gravity, they miss Jason Tatum's gravity. I'm not buying the gravity thing. It is interesting to watch these guys who were awesome three-point shooters when all of a sudden they're in a normal basketball situation and the percentages go from 44 to 33 because guess what?

1:39:04Bill Simmons:what? When you're on a worse team, one out of every 10 of your threes now are going to be terrible shots. Yeah. And that's going to go down.

1:39:10Joe House:The old usage versus efficiency trade-off. Derek White, in related news, is shooting 31 % on threes and 43 % on

1:39:17Bill Simmons:twos. Because out of every 10 shots he took, last year, there was one wide-open, awesome shot. So it would be like nine shots and then this wide-open awesome shot that he usually made, and now that shot doesn't exist. Who do you have? Wow. So just for the people listening, we have six teams left. The Nets, the Wizards, the Pacers, the Grizzlies, the Kings, and the Clippers.

1:39:39Joe House:Can I pass? No. Washington. A scouting thing. Just let's watch some young guys play. Can A.J. Johnson get some minutes? Can we just go full entertainment? What are we winning? It's your 1-12. Can we give A.J.

1:39:56Bill Simmons:Johnson some minutes? The problem is they have seven guys who are the same guy. And you can't play more than two of those guys at the same time.

1:40:03Joe House:Why not? Who's saying no? What Wizards fan in the crowd is being like, this is just, we can't play this lineup against this team. Those Wizards fans don't even know who's on their own team. There's like eight guys who know who's on the team. Does Sarr do anything for you?

1:40:19Bill Simmons:Yeah, I've always liked Sarr. Sarr's good. Sarr's good. Redraft, I think he's won. It's not a great draft. It's not a great draft, but I think he's won. Would you rather have Reese Hachey or Shepard? Shepard?

1:40:35Joe House:Just for the upside right now. I think Reese O'Shea is a stone-cold lock to be a good rotation player, a good starter. I don't know. There's a lot of...

1:40:45Bill Simmons:I think from what I've seen this year and his age, I think, and both of them are young, I think Shepard, I think I would have him second. He would have been like 10th if we did this two months ago.

1:40:58Joe House:Where would you have Tijon Solana of your Charlotte Hornets? There's some moments. in the G League?

1:41:04Bill Simmons:There's some moments.

1:41:07Joe House:I'm taking Washington over all these other teams.

1:41:10Bill Simmons:Trey J, just, you know, they are. You know what Reed Shepard needs to, he needs to, they need to show him like a hundred hours of John Stockton being a dick footage. John Stockton setting hard screens and putting his elbow in. John Stockton tripping dudes. Like he needs to embrace his asshole John Stockton side. That's the next thing for him. Okay. I'm just feisty. I know I'm undersized, but I'll fight you. I always feel like John Stockton never got enough credit for that. Just like a mean-spirited player.

1:41:45Joe House:We're at the point of the show where if you want to put CJ McCollum in a fake trade, this is the time to do it. I know. Poor CJ.

1:41:50Bill Simmons:I think I've put him in more fake trades than any player in the history of the league. He certainly thinks you have. I know, but most of the time it was justified. And he did get traded. It's tough. I don't see it. I think he's a buyout guy, and I think teams would just go, like, we'll get him in the end of February.

1:42:05Joe House:Sadly, I feel the same way about Middleton, who looks like he's moving in molasses, and Corey Kispert suddenly is a non-factor. The veterans are not doing a ton for the young guys. I think this might be the way it plays out with the Celtics,

1:42:21Bill Simmons:with Simons. It might be a buyout thing where... That would be disappointing from their perspective. Yeah, but it might be how it plays out, considering his minutes have been yanked around. And I still think a lot of teams have the$27 million salary spot to flip. I know who you're taking next, by the way. I know what you're going to do. I'm taking the Clippers. Oh, okay.

1:42:44Joe House:It's amazing how I had them 27th, and they were actually 21st in my preseason. So I was not excited to watch them off the jump. I had them 27th among these dregs, and I was like, I didn't even think that hard about it. It's just not fun to watch. It's just a chore.

1:43:00Bill Simmons:I burned out on Harden like six years ago, so that part's not great. But I couldn't put them below any of the next four teams. I don't know what the Clippers do. They don't have their pick, as we mentioned nine times.

1:43:12Joe House:Well, this, but that is, they are one of the, they don't, not only do they not have their pick, they have this whole thing hanging over them, right? Like, what's going to happen? Is this investigation going to amount to anything? What's going to happen? Derrick Jones Jr. out six weeks.

1:43:28Bill Simmons:I honestly don't think they care. I think Bombers would be like, whatever. I mean, if they get, they don't even have any picks to be penalized from. They get fined, Bombers rich. They do have picks. He gets banned from, what are they going to take their 2032 first? But that would really be devastating for them if they did. I don't think he's doing that. Okay. I think it could be a huge fine and he's banned from going to games for a year. Something like that.

1:43:53Joe House:I do think he cares that they are, I mean, I said this earlier in the week, Like, the best thing they have going for them is they're 11th. The four teams below them are in just as much, if not a worse situation, just as much shit as they are. They're not in these games. They're not getting killed. And Utah is 5-9. Portland is now 6-9. The Sun schedule is about to toughen up. It's like, by default, they should be a play-in team. Like, they shouldn't have to do anything crazy to make the play-in. Yeah. But, I don't think— And they have these two big expiring contracts that they can take a swing.

1:44:26Joe House:If they're bad, like this bad, they're going to do something. because as much as you think they might be realistic about what their chances actually were, and I think they were pretty realistic, I don't think they expected anything like this. I mean, this is, and you throw in the Beal disaster, Jones injury, you know.

1:44:42Bill Simmons:Well, look at their losses. Utah opening night, not great.

1:44:47Joe House:Awful. It's bad, as bad a loss for an allegedly good team as you'll see.

1:44:52Bill Simmons:At Golden State. Home Miami, lost by one. OKC no shame in that no at Phoenix mildly shameful got swept by Phoenix that was home for Phoenix now a little shamey Hawks not surprised Denver not surprised beat Dallas in two OTs and lost to the Celtics and Sixers by three and two in games I watched both of those fourth quarters those games were close

1:45:19Joe House:the Celtics one was kind of one of those miracle that was like a ten point game and then they just went three fouls yeah but they hung around around. Yeah, they did. Okay.

1:45:28Bill Simmons:I don't know. I don't think it's as bleak as it seems, but they do have the next four on the road and two home and then the next five on the road ending with Minnesota and OKC. So you're right. But the ship might have sailed. I don't want to pick anybody else. I would say they're number one for panic trade for me, though.

1:45:47Joe House:I mean, look, I put him... I made a fake Anthony Davis trade for them right away. And just because... I just think this is untenable for them. Zubats in that? No, they keep Zubats. Why do I do that if I'm Dallas? What are they getting? I don't think there's like a big, I said I don't think they're going to get a mother load for Anthony Davis. The contract and the looming.

1:46:12Bill Simmons:Would you take Zubats and John Collins and some swap and nine years from now and that's it? I don't even know if that's legal in the cap, but something of that vicinity. I would love to get it. Would you rather have Zubats at the price he's at with coming up for a new contract or Anthony Davis? Zubats. I think. Right. But that would be the panic trade. So maybe it's just Zubats and John Collins for Anthony Davis.

1:46:36Joe House:See, that I feel like they just don't think that does enough for them. It has to be more additive than that.

1:46:42Bill Simmons:All right. Who do you have with the 27th pick in our draft?

1:46:47Joe House:I got to cross off the Clippers. Okay. I guess I will go Memphis. Yeah. Just for the theater of... John Morant. Is this going to be a Defcon 1 jaw-toons-out-the-coach game or a Defcon 3 jaw-toons-out-the-coach game? And how is that going to manifest itself in the game?

1:47:06Bill Simmons:I don't know how this strategy...

1:47:07Joe House:And Edie's back. Edie's back. I'm interested in Edie.

1:47:10Bill Simmons:I don't understand how this is a strategy that succeeds. Like if there was some podcaster that was trying to... Oh, and Cedric Cowan. And I should have mentioned that right off the bat. That guy's good draft. There's some podcaster that's like, I don't want to be here anymore. I'd like to go to a place like The Ringer. And we listen to the podcast and he was just milling it and acting crazy on the podcast and doing weird shit. I'm banking this in my head for like a year or two from now. No, I just wouldn't be like, oh man, I hope that guy becomes available. We can turn him around. Like people have scouts at these games watching, you know, John Morant just not look like he gives a shit.

1:47:53Bill Simmons:Well, how about John Morant shooting like 30 % for the season? How about the history of super explosive guards as they hit their late 20s who have had a lot of injuries? Like there's red flags all over the place, not to mention all the other shit that happened with them. I don't think it's going to be a hard one to trade. I have Sacramento as my next team. There's no reason other than there's only a couple teams left. I do like watching Doug Christie coaching. I think it's been pretty funny. I like the shots of Vivek just silently stewing in his courtside seat. It's been hilarious.

1:48:25Joe House:I wonder if he's sitting there thinking. I wonder if he's so delusional that he's sitting there when he's stewing like that. The stewing is not, boy, our roster sucks. And I made some bad calls. I was like, man, if we just fucking coach. If we just had a better fucking coach. You know, like maybe I should. They liked Doug Christie. Who could I go back? because Jaeger available. Is Michael Malone available? Who did we fire? Who did we fire that's available? Because I think this team, like, there's something here. If we just had the right coach to get it, we're 3-12 with a minus 12-point differential.

1:49:02Joe House:But if we just tweak the offense a little bit, tweak the sub-patterns. No, I think it's more like when Keegan Murray comes back,

1:49:10Bill Simmons:this is all going to fall into place.

1:49:11Joe House:Yeah, it's like where we're at. We just need Keegan back. Yeah. Do you think in the coaches' meetings before the game, they just pick a number out of a hat and that's how many minutes Keon Ellis is going to play on that particular... I would have already traded for him. Seven minutes tonight. I would have already traded for him. Tonight, 32 minutes and he starts. Great train wreck potential. All right. Then the last two picks are Indiana and Brooklyn. No, I'm up. I have two picks left. Didn't you just pick the Kings? No, we have three picks left. You took the Kings. Oh, I took Memphis. You took the Kings.

1:49:46Bill Simmons:Oh, I did take the Kings. There's two picks left then.

1:49:49Joe House:I will just honor the defending Eastern Conference champions by saving them the indignity of not going last.

1:49:56Bill Simmons:I didn't realize that they moved the tanks to Indy until like a couple days after it happened. That the tanks got brought into the state of Indiana. Well, they're getting healthier now though. I think they've made their decision on what they want to be this season. And I fully support it. And by the way, there's no better tanking situation ever than the most beloved finals loser we've probably ever had with the start to finish awesome season, tragic ending, iconic all-time Pacers team. This would be the most beloved Pacers team they've ever had. And now they get to tank. It'll be over in five months, right?

1:50:36Bill Simmons:April 10th, it's over. You can start watching college now. Enjoy yourselves, guys.

1:50:43Joe House:I mean, look, you and I are captains of the Tim Duncan is historically underrated brigade. Like, Tim Duncan is a top whatever player.

1:50:54Bill Simmons:Every year we lose people.

1:50:55Joe House:I don't say his name in vain. I don't mean to even bring up his name in this way. This could be the best single season tanking scenario since the Spurs got Tim Duncan. This team coming back. You mean like a team being able to get a major guy. A very clearly good team that is decimated, takes a gap year, miraculously gets its own 2026 pick back in a trade at the 2025 draft. During the finals. Yeah, that's right. The trade they made during the finals when we were together. Not knowing that Tyrese Halliburton is about to get injured and that whole season is going to go up and smoke for them. Gets everyone healthy.

1:51:34Joe House:They're not old. And they're just like, we'll just add potentially the number one pick, the number three pick, the number four pick. A guy who can probably come in and give them real minutes next year. They're going to have to solve the center position, all that. But like, it's honestly a pretty, like, if you're going to suffer that kind of blow and it was horrible and like, it still gets talked about every time I go out for lunch or drinks or coffee with anybody, that injury and the what if of all that and that miraculous playoff run. It's a pretty good, I mean, this is an objectively like, people haven't wrapped their minds around it yet, but the Pacers are going to, the finals Pacers are going to come back, sans Miles Turner and with a top five pick.

1:52:11Joe House:We started with the Nets and we end with the Nets.

1:52:16Bill Simmons:I wish there was another team I could take. I keep looking. Is there another basketball team?

1:52:22Joe House:Can we count like the teams that the international teams that played exhibition games

1:52:26Bill Simmons:in the preseason? There's still no other teams. I just think it's a disgrace. Oh, come on. This is the NBA at its worst. This is the NBA at its worst. A team that sucked for a couple years now and wanted to suck again. I don't understand in a draft that had so many good players that they took five guys that not one of them has jumped out to me yet.

1:52:49Joe House:It's so early.

1:52:51Bill Simmons:I know, but it's just like this is a disgrace of a team. It's just terrible what they did. I don't. This is the NBA. So do their draft. We've never solved the NBA correctly with shit like this. It's embarrassing to watch. So if you do the draft over again, Coward is there for them at eight. Listen, they passed on, even if they had taken Murray Boyles or Coward, you have to think Demmon is awesome. And I don't even know what position he is. He made a couple threes against Celtics, but for the most part, it doesn't seem like he can shoot. And it's not like he's an elite playmaker. I don't see it at all.

1:53:34Joe House:I'm just saying that's the one.

1:53:35Bill Simmons:Even if they had taken Derek Queen, it made more sense to me.

1:53:38Joe House:The other picks are 19, 22, 26, 27. I still like Yakushinas.

1:53:46Bill Simmons:Talk about a guy who hasn't made an impression. He hasn't played yet. People like Clifford, like Gonzalez. But why take all these guys who all play the same position? I just don't understand anything.

1:53:58Joe House:There's no one below 15, 16.

1:54:04Bill Simmons:Yeah, after 15.

1:54:05Joe House:That is making me like...

1:54:06Bill Simmons:But why keep all the picks? I'm sure they tried something. I don't think they tried anything. They were like proud of like, we like all five of these guys. The whole thing was stupid. Coward is the one that got away.

1:54:19Joe House:Horrible. Because he looks like a star. I mean, a star. Yeah. Can you imagine how different the vibe would be in Brooklyn if one of those picks was Cedric Howard. There'd be legitimate, like, Brooklyn has a guy, a homegrown guy.

1:54:34Bill Simmons:Well, the other thing with Demmon is they might have been able to get him later or use two picks to trade up for him, you know? Also, like, if Dumars wanted Queen that bad, why didn't you trade him the eighth pick? Yeah, we'd have to do a whole key oral history

1:54:52Joe House:of who called who when and how many teams knew. And, you know, because there was all the way up to Chicago there was, or Chicago's...

1:54:59Bill Simmons:So he traded for the 13th pick to take Queen. Yeah. Chicago's 12th. Would he have traded for the 8th pick to take Queen? Probably. And would you have done that if you're Brooklyn in 5 seconds? Also, if Joe Dumars takes over a team, I'm calling him constantly to make sure he's not going to do anything. I want to be his first trade.

1:55:17Joe House:Would they have just taken Queen at 7 if they couldn't have acquired another first-round pick with which to trade up?

1:55:27Joe House:Possibly.

1:55:28Bill Simmons:I like Queen. The Nets still have cap space. That pick costs them one of those things. Well, they have cap space and the ability to maybe grab some more non-lottery picks that are not going to play for them. You do wish, even after 20 games, Joman is the closest one that's like he's had a couple of moments.

1:55:47Joe House:You just do wish. Every time Drake Powell gets on the floor and does anything, gets a stop, Nets fans are like, see? Drake Powell's like, yeah, he scored four points for a team that doesn't really have anybody right now.

1:56:01Bill Simmons:The more defensible one is Porter has played better, irrefutably, than Cam Johnson. Porter's been very good. Cam Johnson struggled early. I love that trade for Denver, but if you're Brooklyn, you have to be delighted with Porter.

1:56:13Joe House:I liked that trade for Brooklyn. You and I disagreed heartily on that. I liked it for both teams. You liked Porter more than me, though. I liked it for both teams. I think the pick they got is potentially super valuable. and, you know, we'll see. It's a 20-32 pick. Noah Clowney's playing well. Did that do anything for you? Walking by Barclays Center and seeing a giant Noah Clowney with his arms folded, looking tough. Like, this is come, come, come watch. Yeah.

1:56:42Bill Simmons:I like Clowney and he's going to have a moment for somebody because he's like the kind of aggro feisty guy. He'll mix it up. I'll predict a prediction of the year right here. Clowney, Ron Holland. They're going to mix it up at some point. Maybe Isaiah Stewart will come in. If Isaiah Stewart comes in, that's not going to go well for Noah Clowney. This would be a good social media clip for us. Two-on-one tag team. Well, then Nick Claxton will come in on the other side, and there'll just be a lot of this happening. Nick Claxton alternates just from afar between the polls of,

1:57:17Joe House:it's kind of fun. These young guys, I really care about Brooklyn. and I care about this franchise and like I'm trying my best to be a role model and just dejected like, man, I can't believe. I just can't believe I'm still here. And this is what the team is.

1:57:30Bill Simmons:Yeah, I wouldn't, from what I've seen from an energy slash demeanor standpoint, I wouldn't be frothing at the mouth to try to trade for Nick Claxton. Tough one though. Take the money. Can't blame him for that. All right, we're wrapping up. Do you want to, you don't have another podcast this week, right? I don't think so. Do you want to do one big prediction for the weekend before we go? Sure. I haven't looked at any of the games. Any sort of prediction in general? Other than Friday night's showdown. No, not even for a game. Biggest league story you're monitoring over the next few days that you're most interested in.

1:58:02Bill Simmons:Can you go first or I'll go first?

1:58:04Joe House:Biggest league story.

1:58:05Bill Simmons:Well, the most fun thing is the Detroit streak. That's a good one. They're at 11. Whether Toronto is for real, I think they're going to beat a couple of these bad teams. and them being 12-5 I think is interesting. Houston always. But number one is LeBron. Number one is LeBron. That's the one I'm most interested in.

1:58:26Joe House:Fitting in, not fitting out. And I will go like, how do the Bucs fare without Giannis for an extended stretch? Can they tread water? Even if it's just six, seven games. Is it 0-6 or is it 3-3? 0-6 could, yikes. That's a good one. And Denver-Houston on Friday is appointment viewing. Is that the first, like... I changed my flight going home to make sure,

1:58:53Bill Simmons:even if it was delayed, I wasn't going to miss any of that game.

1:58:56Joe House:I remember flying back from L.A. two seasons ago and realizing two days before that it was the first Denver-Boston game the year we all thought Denver and Boston were going to meet in the finals. And I couldn't change my flight, and the Wi-Fi worked just well enough that I could stream the game. It was a great game, too. is this the first game, the first head-to-head game that it's like, now we have enough information about both these teams. They're as good as we thought. Better, probably, in Houston's case. Is this the first, like, all right. Yeah, they haven't played yet. Buckle up. I gotta sit and watch this one.

1:59:29Bill Simmons:The problem is no Brown.

1:59:30Joe House:Like, New York-Cleveland, there were a bunch of injuries both ways. Yeah. A bunch of, like, big injuries.

1:59:37Bill Simmons:Well, has OKC played Denver yet?

1:59:39Joe House:I don't think so. Yeah.

1:59:43Bill Simmons:Denver-Houston, I think, from a matchup, we didn't get to see a version of this last year with the type of players we have in the series or a game. Throwing them against each other is probably the matchup I'm the most interested in.

1:59:56Joe House:We're going to see at the same time. I bet we see it. Valanciunas Jokic versus Adam Schengen. Oh, double twin towers? Yeah, same time. Oh, my God. Let's just go crazy. That would be pretty good. Who guards Durant? Gordon? Valanchunas. Just throw him on there. Gordon, if he plays, yeah, he sat out last night, I assume just for precautionary reasons. Gordon Watson has been playing a lot because of Christian Brown's injury.

2:00:22Bill Simmons:I bet he gets a shot. Before we go, I haven't talked to you since you lost your live show virginity. Yeah. In Minnesota, of all places. Yeah, why not? You had a good time. Great time.

2:00:32Joe House:Great time. It was... Had some guests. Good crowd. Finchie brought it. I told him you got to bring the heat. Some laughs. You brought it. Dante brought it. It was good. What's the next city, you think? We're talking about it. We're definitely going to do one here in New York. And then we are debating one other city. I think we're going to try three this year. New York, I insisted on because this is my home. Yeah, that's a layup. And we've got a few. Do you just want me to name them that are candidates or not? No, you don't need to. I know they're percolating with Elizabeth. Yeah, yeah. Our beloved live show.

2:01:07Joe House:She sent me a long email yesterday that I have not yet responded to with this in mind. But it was funny. It's actually, I haven't gone to a bunch as a fan. Yeah, true. And appeared on a couple. I knew that it was going to be way different than a normal podcast. But the level of difference was jarring and kind of shook me up for the first 10 or 15 minutes. And then also I was very concerned about time. Yeah. Because I feel like as an audience member, you start approaching two hours and I start to be like, I wanted an hour and a half before Q &A. And I was going to monitor the time very carefully.

2:01:52Joe House:And I left my phone in the green room. So I had no idea how long anything was taking. So I was rifling through the couch cushions thinking my phone was in there. That stressed me out. And it turned out we were in faster than I expected. So I did all right. So I learned a lot. next one will be even better but it was fun

2:02:07Bill Simmons:it was cool to meet people I did a Den of Thieves rewatchables and I brought the wrong iPad out and the battery died and Chris Ryan had to ad-lib for like two minutes while I ran backstage and he just had to freelance a van we still gotta get me

2:02:20Joe House:on rewatchables like I'm I know when you come to LA I don't know we can book it we can book it you know what I watched for the first time this week on my Peloton rides first time one of those movies that I just missed Casino

2:02:33Bill Simmons:oh my god

2:02:34Joe House:I'd never seen it before. It's great. It's a great time. It's great. It's the unofficial little brother to Goodfellas. My wife texted me mid-Peloton ride yesterday, and she was like, can you turn that down? It's a lot of swearing, and our daughter can hear the entire thing. And it was Pesci and De Niro arguing in the desert, and it was just like, it was bad.

2:02:53Bill Simmons:Yeah, because you have this weird TV movie life where your wife is just like, some shows, movies are a non-starter. Violence. Yeah. Violence, she's out. Yeah, because, you know, would have lasted three minutes. Yeah, so you almost have to like sneak in these things to get a taste of it. Like the Beast and Me on Netflix, your wife wouldn't watch, but it's really good.

2:03:13Joe House:Don't even know what that is.

2:03:14Bill Simmons:You recommended Task. Task is great. That's another one. Yeah, there's some good ones. All right, Sacklow, pleasure as always. Thanks for taking the train to come see us. Great time. Great to see you. Hey, it's Bill from the Bill Simmons Podcast. FIFA World Cup 26 fans. Listen up. As the official beer sponsor of the FIFA World Cup 26, Michelob Ultra is giving away $1 million worth of FIFA World Cup 26 tickets and prizes. Enter now at michlobaltra.com slash superior access slash FIFA World Cup 26. Michelob Ultra FIFA World Cup 26, superior access, no purchase necessary. Open U.S. Residence 21 Plus begins on December 1st, 2025, ends on July 31st, 2026, multiple entry periods.

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2:04:23Bill Simmons:All right, we had to do Ringer 107, even though we just went two hours with Zach Lowe. Joe House is here. This has been an Action Pass BS pod. What a week for me, for the listeners. The mailbag came back this week, House. It's just like it never left.

2:04:38Zach Lowe:Mailbag and league pass rankings. I mean, seriously. Just throwing 95.

2:04:45Bill Simmons:Yeah, what year is this? I don't even know. We're going to talk football. We went 3-2 last week. There is a five-way tie in the Ringer 107. It is just the definition of mediocrity. But this is perennially right around when I usually get hot. Right around Thanksgiving I usually start coming on We have a nice feel for the season You have a real feel for what teams want to do and not do And we're going to rip through the games Right now The stayaways for me this week are Bears, Steelers, no thanks Packers, Vikings, no thank you Ravens, Jets

2:05:20Zach Lowe:Why don't you want You don't want to bet on Packers Why?

2:05:24Bill Simmons:I don't want to lay the points with the Packers when I can't figure out what the F is going on with them, and I don't want to bet on J.J. McCarthy. So it's a stay away from me.

2:05:34Zach Lowe:The not betting on J.J. McCarthy is very, very sound strategy. I don't want to put the Packers in a tease. Less than a touchdown.

2:05:40Bill Simmons:I don't want to lay a touchdown with them.

2:05:41Zach Lowe:They're at home at less than a touchdown against J.J. McCarthy. Good luck.

2:05:46Bill Simmons:Ravens, Jets, staying away. Maybes. I liked Panthers plus seven against the Niners a little bit, and you did not. You don't like Bryce Young in the road? What are your other reasons? That's it.

2:05:59Zach Lowe:That's the reason. Well, and also, this version of the San Francisco offense, right? We finally, this is their offense. They saw, we saw again San Francisco. We lost it on our parlay last week. I guess Arizona. Wow.

2:06:12Bill Simmons:The cards plus 13 and a half. That was so dumb.

2:06:15Zach Lowe:I don't want to.

2:06:15Bill Simmons:The case for the Panthers is, I still think the Niners defense is hot garbage. It's fine. And Brissette was moving the ball all up and down the field on them. Yes, yes. And the points should have been higher. The guy fumbled on the goal line as he was running in. But they were moving the ball whenever they wanted. So the question is, could the Panthers just move the ball whenever they want on this team?

2:06:33Zach Lowe:They want to run the ball, and they're very good at running the ball, the Panthers. But I'm looking at the other side of things, which is the San Francisco offense, which really...

2:06:45Bill Simmons:It's a juggernaut. I didn't like going against it last week. I did not have a good time. So we're staying away from that. Eagles, Cowboys, I just want to stay away from... You probably have a lean either way on this. You had the Eagles last week as your wise wager. You tried to talk me into it for Ringer 107. I didn't want to do it. They killed the Lions. Eagles are minus three and a half at Dallas. There's just enough there with that Dallas team, and especially with the cheap touchdown at the end. It's just a stay. I don't want either of those.

2:07:14Zach Lowe:I would really go hard if it was three, and at different points it's been three. The Eagles are favored minus three and a half at even money, plus 100. The three and a half for Dallas is minus 122. I mean, come on. Just put the three out.

2:07:32Bill Simmons:And then a big maybe for me, which you're just going to reject.

2:07:40Zach Lowe:Like Dikembe?

2:07:41Bill Simmons:Like a transplant or Dikembe Mutombo. Browns plus three and a half against the Raiders. the Raiders can't block at all. We saw that last week against Dallas, which they single-handedly vindicated the Quinny Williams trade, just whiffing. So I thought, I watched the entire game on my flight to New York City. Some of the worst offensive line play I've seen all year. So the case would be the Browns defense is just going to single-handedly win this game. The case against it is it's the Browns offensive line on the road with Shadur Sanders, who could not have looked worse. now. He gets to practice with the first string all week.

2:08:18Bill Simmons:They're getting three and a half points against a Vegas team that's bad. You could argue this line should just be even because who the hell knows what's going to happen, but I can't bet on Shadur as a Ringer 107 pick when we're trying to win Ringer 107. You just can't.

2:08:34Zach Lowe:You can't do it. No.

2:08:35Bill Simmons:I did think about it, though.

2:08:37Zach Lowe:Well, I would, you know... I don't have enough information to make the strenuous case I'd like to make to take the Raiders?

2:08:47Bill Simmons:No, we're never taking the Raiders. I'm not doing that.

2:08:50Zach Lowe:So that's fine. Okay. Duly noted. There's no reason. They're awful. They're very bad.

2:08:55Bill Simmons:The Patriots losing to the Raiders in week one is in the running for dumbest result of the season, like in retrospect. What would the Pats be favored now against them? Like 13?

2:09:03Zach Lowe:Yeah, yeah. Easy double digits.

2:09:06Bill Simmons:Some parlay games for you. We have the Seahawks money line. They're favored by 13 and a half in Tennessee. A couple reasons to be slightly afraid of that game. Zabel's probably out. Simmons is back for Tennessee. It's a lot of points for a road favorite, and I would like to steer clear. Lions-Giants. Lions minus 10.5. Lions coming off a bad loss. Lions with some starters back. Lions, for instance, could be parlayed parlayed the Moneyline Lions with the Chiefs minus one and a half gets us under minus 120. It's minus 113.

2:09:50Zach Lowe:We have to go back to the Chiefs.

2:09:52Bill Simmons:Are the Chiefs going to go five and six? Why can't they? Tell me why they can't. Okay, we'll talk about them in a second. And then Patriots-Bengals, that line dropped to six and a half. The Moneyline's lowered because there's a possibility of a Joe Burrow comeback. Just insane. to me. I don't know why that would happen.

2:10:13Zach Lowe:No Jamar Chase. How does that make any sense whatsoever for Cincinnati?

2:10:17Bill Simmons:Awful defense. What's a possible explanation?

2:10:24Bill Simmons:And then the ones that I really like, Jaguars at Arizona. I know there's some red flags with going into Arizona, and there's always red flags with taking the Jags.

2:10:35Zach Lowe:On the road. Can't take the Jags on the road. Can't do it. Except we're going to.

2:10:39Bill Simmons:It's because it's going to be one of my picks. It's your pick. That's fine. It's minus two and a half. No Marvin Harrison. Arizona's defense is horrible. Like, horrible. San Francisco wasn't just scoring last week. They were doing whatever they wanted on defense. I don't know what happened to Gannon and the defense in general. It's in Arizona, but they don't have a home field advantage. It's not like it's, oh, it's outdoors. It's going to be cold. Oh, it's in Florida. It's going to be humid. It's just in a dome. And with depressed fans, they're three and seven. The team's done. The Cardinals have given up 84 points in the past two weeks.

2:11:13Bill Simmons:I think Gannon's and next coach fired at least. There's a whiff of it now. And then here's the other thing, House. Jacksonville, say what you want about them, but they're second against the run defensively. And the Cardinals can't run the ball. So this is just Brissette trying to keep them in it. And I think Brissette's kind of shown, you know, he can put up garbage time stats. But I just think the Jaguars are going to win 11 or 12 games and we're going to be like, what just happened? They play the Jets two more times. They play somebody else awful, the Titans. They have this game. They already have seven wins or six wins.

2:11:50Zach Lowe:Yeah, I don't mind the case for the rest of the season or the case for them threatening for a playoff spot. But we need more evidence. they lost to Jake Browning and Davis Mills this season. In fact, Davis Mills led Houston to, what was it, 21 points in the fourth quarter? I'm aware. That saved us in Rainer 107. Davis Mills did that against this Jacksonville team on the road. So Jacksonville had two consecutive weeks on the road against Vegas, which took Vegas failing on a two-point try in overtime for Jacksonville to get the win. and then lost to Houston outright. They lost to Jake Browning in week three, week two.

2:12:38Zach Lowe:They have one win on the road, and it was against that San Francisco team where every single person on the team was in the hospital.

2:12:47Bill Simmons:Counter, they still beat the Niners, who have been banged up all year and are just like a wounded people. That's what I just said, on the road. I know. Their whole team in the hospital. I still think you, I'm saying I still think you get credit for beating the Niners even when the whole team's in the hospital because they're well coached and they always, whatever. They beat the Panthers in week one. They beat the Chiefs in week five. Granted, dumb game, but they did beat them. They beat the Chargers handily last week. They did. And here's my case. I just wonder if they're the good, bad team. They're six and four.

2:13:19Bill Simmons:Their real record is three, two, and five. Five either or games. so they're basically 3-2 in the either or games they're at Zona at Tennessee, home Indiana Apple's home Jets, at Denver at Indianapolis, home Tennessee there's 4 more wins than this I just think they're going to be in the playoffs and we're going to wonder what the F happened

2:13:42Zach Lowe:I don't disagree with you but they have to win this game to be in the playoffs I'm not going to I'm going to accept your insistence It's your pick. You're allowed to make it.

2:13:55Bill Simmons:I watched that Cardinals team really carefully last week, and they sucked. They did suck. They just sucked. But the problem is... And I don't think it matters if they're... Does it matter where Arizona plays? Does it go, oh, they're in Arizona.

2:14:09Zach Lowe:Watch out. Why does that have to matter? They played against an offense that by priors, that San Francisco offense on priors coming into the season, San Francisco was supposed to be an 11 or 12-win team based on the offense that for the first time this season, that group of skill players had played nine snaps together before this Arizona game. And so, you know, there is a difference in class between that San Francisco offense with all of their talent out there. Also, the familiarity of Shanahan against Gannon, against Arizona. Radically different thing for this. because Trevor Lawrence, he sucks.

2:14:53Zach Lowe:He sucks. He sucks. So just be aware of what we're doing here.

2:15:00Bill Simmons:Listen, it was very hard to find five picks this week. I have them marked down. I have the Bucs plus six and a half against the Rams marked down because I think the Bucs are, like I watched that entire Bucs-Bills game. They were leading in the fourth quarter. I actually think their defense is pretty good. I know they got lit up by Buffalo, but Allen was just out of a smile.

2:15:23Zach Lowe:Got lit up by Josh Allen.

2:15:25Bill Simmons:I thought they did a good job. They gave up two dumb plays. The question is, can the Rams get some explosives on them? But this just felt like a, I thought this was a flash sale line to me. I just blink test in my head. It should be four or four and a half. And the Rams are just getting two extra points for being home. Their offense did mostly jack shit. Are we not getting seven in that game?

2:15:49Zach Lowe:It's just six and a half. No, we're only getting six and a half. Yeah, I thought it was six and a half. Another one where, you know, the proper price is seven, but it's six and a half at 102.

2:15:58Bill Simmons:Looks like Irving and Goodwin are going to play. And then the Rams just had their biggest win of the year last week, which I was like the week after for that. I just feel like Tampa's going to hang around.

2:16:08Zach Lowe:I don't have an argument. It's too many points. I like where your head is at on Tampa.

2:16:15Bill Simmons:And then this was not a game I had. and I know all the cases for it, but you were intrigued by the Saints minus one and a half against the Kirk Cousins Falcons. And after you suggested it, I did get excited about the chance to bet against Kirk Cousins and Raheem Morris, who I talked about in my mailbag. Two of the greats. The man, the warm, the warm himself. The warm, there you go. So the Saints are bad, but what is it? It's one and a half in their home. Yes, coming off the bye. They beat the Panthers two weeks ago and then had a bye.

2:16:44Zach Lowe:Yep. Shucks, okay. Yeah, he's okay. There's some signs of life there. They only traded one of their... They only traded Rashid Shahid, you know. They didn't trade the entirety of their offensive skill position nucleus.

2:17:02Bill Simmons:Also, these two... The fan bases hate each other. Yes. So this is not a let's roll over this week. This is like we actually hate the Falcons. Let's jam a stake into their heart.

2:17:13Zach Lowe:Kirk Cousins without Drake London and the impact on Atlanta's offense when Drake London plays versus when he doesn't play, specifically on the run game, they are a yard per attempt worse. A yard per carry worse. Over a yard worse without Drake London on the football field. They're like four point something yards per carry with him when he plays and in the mid threes when he doesn't play. All right. we're not going to have any more opportunities to bet against Kirk Cousins. That's the most important thing.

2:17:49Bill Simmons:This is the thing. And technically we could say the same thing about Shader Sanders,

2:17:53Zach Lowe:but I'm not taking the same thing about JJ McCarthy. Like I would bet against all of them. I already have, I've already, I'm happy to have less than a touchdown against JJ McCarthy. You kidding me? I can't do it. That's fine. You have to give me one of them. And the one for me is the saints. I'll, I'll gladly, gladly, gladly back the saints here.

2:18:13Bill Simmons:It was interesting how some of the talking heads talked about McCarthy last week where there was not a lot of yeah buts with him. The people who were like, I watched the All-22. They were some of the worst throws we've seen this season. Yeah, there was no rhyme or reason for where the ball was going. His feet aren't set. They've rushed him. This is a disaster. there's no real signs at all except for that last drive that there's something here it was pretty sobering I felt that way watching the game as we rooted for them I didn't enjoy it at all

2:18:51Zach Lowe:that was one where we made our pick on Thursday I thought the defensive lineman Jonathan Greener was going to be playing he is their primary pass rush asset and then he was ruled out after we made the pick I got off of the position. I got out of all my Minnesota stuff. I bet on the Eagles last week that covered off all the stupid Minnesota money.

2:19:12Bill Simmons:We couldn't do anything about it.

2:19:13Zach Lowe:It wasn't our fault.

2:19:16Bill Simmons:I just don't like the smell of that Packers team.

2:19:20Zach Lowe:It doesn't smell good.

2:19:21Bill Simmons:I understand what you're saying. When it's third and eight, I just don't know what they do. They don't either. That's the problem. Jacob's either not playing or he's going to play hurt. Not awesome. Right. They drop balls all over the place. They sure do. Yeah, it's a stay away for me. I could see, like, I personally could see Minnesota winning that game, and I could see them losing by 25. Their defense is very good.

2:19:45Zach Lowe:That's the reason why I like the idea of Green Bay, why I personally have already bet it. So Chiefs-Colts, there's two ways to go because we have the parlay.

2:19:54Bill Simmons:Because we're doing the Pats. Okay. The Pats are minus 6.5. I'm happy doing that straight up. I'm also happy doing them with a money line and like over 44 and a half or something like that. And because there's going to be points in the game regardless. But I just think, I don't think people realize, the Pats have played some decent to really good defenses the last few weeks. Even a team like the Jets that traded two of their guys. But they were still like, they're still like, their identity is defense. They're not awful. The Bengals are like reprehensible how bad they are in defense. And the Patriots should be able to move the ball up and down the field on them all game.

2:20:31Bill Simmons:I think it has blowout potential. They haven't had a blowout in a couple weeks. There's a borough piece about him coming back, but it's only Tee Higgins. I think the one bet I would say is I think Chase Brown, if you have him in fantasy or guillotine or whatever, he's just the exact type of guy that the Pats have had trouble with this season. But Pats and a parlayer tease. And then we have to figure out this Chiefs thing. because the Lions have to be in a money line against the Giants with all their starters coming back, coming off a loss. The Giants are a mess. The Lions money line with the Chiefs is an easy way to do it.

2:21:09Zach Lowe:Why can't we do the Lions money line with Seattle? Because we're not nearly enough.

2:21:16Bill Simmons:Yeah, we're not nearly enough. Well, explain your hesitation with the Chiefs. Who the hell are they? I have no idea who this team is. They were winning that game, and it seemed like they were wrapping it up there against the Broncos, and then they just kind of died with 10 minutes to go.

2:21:33Zach Lowe:Their defense doesn't get stops the way that that defense used to get stops, got stops last year. What we're accustomed to, which is putting pressure. I kept waiting for the Chris Jones play. Where's the Chris Jones play? They put pressure on Nick. Nick's had all the time in the world in that fourth quarter, and he threw an absolutely beautiful ball to Troy Franklin, a beautiful ball. That secondary, that chief secondary is poverty. There is no indication that they can slow anybody down. We've been watching it literally all season. We watched it the first week. Herbert threw all over that team.

2:22:10Zach Lowe:He had a field day. He had so much time and he just picked them apart. And there really hasn't been any signs of progress to my way of thinking. So I'm scared. I'm scared of the Colts' ability to get what they want whenever they want.

2:22:25Bill Simmons:Are you scared of Daniel Jones?

2:22:29Zach Lowe:After the Pittsburgh game, which was the classic perfect, put Danny Dimes outdoors, put him up against a physical kind of defense and let him just turn into the pumpkin that he is. Yeah. That's the thesis for what you would say. that's the version of Daniel Jones that we expect here. Except they're coming off the bye and Steichen's a pretty good coach. They might scheme up something to keep him out of harm's way. Now, the best case for the Chiefs is that the Colts' defense is extremely mediocre. That is a mediocre defense. The best, you know, the Colts win games by scoring, outscoring the other team.

2:23:15Zach Lowe:and anytime we've seen them...

2:23:18Bill Simmons:Is that what they're trying this year? They're trying to outscore the other team? I haven't seen a strategy like that yet. They're not stopping their opponent.

2:23:26Zach Lowe:You get it. They're not winning games by stopping teams.

2:23:30Bill Simmons:It sounds like you're more interested in moving the Colts line the other way.

2:23:33Zach Lowe:I want to stay away from that game. Personally, I don't want to bet it because tell me what version of the Chiefs is going to show up. Mahomes is running around You know, part of the game script last week, why I liked the Chiefs to handle their business against Denver was that his unique ability to scramble for yards. He scrambled for shit. He didn't do anything with his legs. He was behind the line of scrimmage. They had him bottled up. That was part of the handicap.

2:24:04Bill Simmons:Nothing to do with anything we've seen all season combined with nothing about anything with the stats. Yes. I can't wait to hear it. The Chiefs are 5-5. and they've taken shit all week. All they've heard all week was, oh my God, this is a wrap. This could be done. They also need to win games to make the playoffs. I don't know if you've checked. They really do. They need to win some games now. They really do. That's a true story. They're running out of games in this season. That's a fact. And I don't know, man. Chiefs minus one and a half with the Lions money line to beat the Giants, and just betting on the Chiefs to beat Daniel Jones by two in the biggest game they've played all season?

2:24:44Zach Lowe:We have 10 years of evidence that that is what you're supposed to do.

2:24:47Bill Simmons:A full decade of solid evidence. The Chiefs are going to go 5-6. I'm honestly happy to lose the pick if they go 5-6. And here's the other thing about the game last week. Guys were open. Mahomes missed dudes. He missed guys deep. What, four times? He had plays. They had offense that they left on the field.

2:25:12Zach Lowe:They've lost two games this season because he's thrown red zone interceptions. They lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They had a red zone interception.

2:25:20Bill Simmons:There was some weird field position stuff in the second half or the special teams. I just think it was a weird game.

2:25:26Zach Lowe:That's also another thing. Well, let me ask you this. Am I allowed to say out loud? Bleep this, please. Harrison Bucker can go fuck himself. Every week they have it.

2:25:35Bill Simmons:We have Bell. Bell's here in New York City with me. She loved it. She also wants him to fuck himself.

2:25:44Bill Simmons:on top of everything else just go back to that you watched that entire KC Denver game as did I did Denver win that game or did KC lose it? both

2:25:55Zach Lowe:but I give credit Denver won the game Bo Nix had to drive them down the football field had to make throws I think KC lost that game

2:26:06Bill Simmons:I think they left players on the field the whole time I thought that interception by Mahomes considering he's supposed to be one of the best quarterbacks of all time was abysmal. I can't believe he did that. Inexplicable. And their last drive was, I just... Hot garbage. I'm taking them. I get two picks, so this is going to be my other one. Are you good with Patriots minus six and a half against the Bengals? I sure am.

2:26:32Zach Lowe:If you want to put them in a parlay, that's fine too. I don't mind laying the points with the Patriots. All right. The Ringer 107 is presented by FanDuel.

2:26:42Bill Simmons:first pick. We just argued about it for a while. We're going to take the Chiefs minus 1.5. We just need to win by two. Parlayed with the Lions money line against the Giants, who stink. And the Lions coming off a loss where their playoff position is a little precarious in their home, and they're getting guys back. Come on. So Chiefs from 3.5 to 1.5 with the Lions money line. That's our first pick. House did not want me to do this, and I'm doing it, it's like when we were in college when people had tequila with the worm in the bottle and we were like, should we drink this? Don't do it. Don't do it.

2:27:20Bill Simmons:You'll go crazy. You'll get brain damage. You're going to wake up tomorrow without your pants on. And you'll be like, all right, I'll try it. I'm trying the Jags on the road. You can try it. Go ahead. I might wake up with my pants down at 5 p.m. I guarantee it. West Coast. Who knows where that worm is going to be? Who knows? but Jags minus two and a half in Arizona. This checks a hundred stay the F away boxes. Arizona coming off two big losses in a row. The Jaguars with people believing Trevor Lawrence on the road. He stinks. I get all of it, but I think the Jags can run the ball. Okay. And I think they're the good, bad team.

2:27:57Bill Simmons:Okay. I think they're going to go 10 and seven and we're not going to believe they went 10 and seven.

2:28:02Zach Lowe:I'm going to root for the Jags this week. You picked them.

2:28:04Bill Simmons:I'm rooting for them. Also, there weren't enough picks for this week. the last three we like. Bucks plus six and a half. Solid. In LA against the Rams. The Bucks suddenly with the Panthers breathing on their necks a little bit. Yeah. They need a win. They lost to the Bills and the Patriots in a row. Have some guys coming back, might be able to run the ball better. And Rams coming off a giant win. So we like, we call that a flash sale. Line's a little too high. House, you love the Saints, minus one and a half against Kirk Cousins. I don't know if anyone enjoys anything in life more than you enjoy betting against Kirk Cousins at this stage of his career.

2:28:41Zach Lowe:All credit to that guy. He had an incredible once-in-a-lifetime career. The amount of money that he made going from situation to situation and at the exact right time, jumping at the biggest contract out there, truly amazing, truly one of a kind. It's just a miracle. You can't play professional football. What other evidence is there? We watched it last year. He got replaced last year because he can't run and he can't throw. Other than that.

2:29:13Bill Simmons:He can't push off his leg to throw anything with mustard on it. Other than that. Nice guy. I think he'll be a good announcer. Oh, I agree. Can't wait to have him in the booth. Totally agree. Great sense of humor. I'm a Cousins fan. Saints one and a half. Plus, two weeks ago, they beat the Panthers 17-7, which ain't nothing because the Panthers then, although the Panthers are a zigzag team.

2:29:33Zach Lowe:The mother shuckers are ready. Believe me.

2:29:35Bill Simmons:And then our last pick is the Patriots minus six and a half in Cincinnati. This Patriots team likes playing on the road. That's one thing. No Jamar Chase because he decided to spit on Jalen Ramsey for reasons that remain unclear. It's just a fighting thing. You spit on somebody, you're going to get punched. There's some good zags against the Patriots this week with some of the advanced metrics. They're getting a lot of this team isn't as good as, Meanwhile, Indianapolis gets none of it. But like that, their defenses are good. No, supporting that the Patriots are a little smoke and mirrorsy, all that stuff.

2:30:13Bill Simmons:It's fine. Well, they play an easy schedule.

2:30:15Zach Lowe:They just beat the teams in front of them.

2:30:17Bill Simmons:Wasn't easier than Indianapolis' schedule. Like, you know, whatever. No Jamar Chase, and I think the Patriots, this has blowout potential. And also the Cincy fans are incredibly depressed by the team. So it's not like, I wouldn't say they have an awesome home field advantage.

2:30:33Zach Lowe:Just remember, it's Thursday. Joe Burrow might play quarterback for the Bengals. They're that stupid. It might happen. I get it. And if he does, the line maybe drops a point or two,

2:30:43Bill Simmons:and I'm fine living with it. I think it would be dumb for them to play Joe Burrow in this game when they have the Baltimore game coming. I don't think Joe Burrow should play this season. We will find out. Patriots minus 6 and F is our last pick. Those are the Ringer 107 picks brought to you by FanDuel. Odd subject to change. You've been betting on basketball. I have been. You've been dabbling, been doing stuff. Who are you riding? We just did the league pass retours. You're riding the Rockets and Pistons?

2:31:11Zach Lowe:Who else? I have not. I'm just looking situationally. You have to have the time to do this, but the injury report, the direction of injury stuff, and the schedule is insane. You and I sat down together, what was it, two weeks ago, three weeks ago, and you asked the NBA why they hate Golden State so much. Well, betting against Golden State has been relatively profitable because the stretch that they just went on, it was like seven road games in a row or six road games in a row, seven games in 10 nights. What are we doing? It's Steph effing Curry. I know. One of the three most important players from a marketing standpoint.

2:31:50Zach Lowe:Curry finally got mad about it. So stupid. But guess what? Last night, the line opened up against the Heat. The Heat were small favorites. Then they got to be larger favorites as Steph was ruled out because he rolled his ankle the night before. And then everybody on Golden State sat out. And Miami Cruz, it was a great leg for a Moneyline parlay. It was a great leg laying the small set of points in the morning. So it's those kinds of opportunistic things. The other thing I'm doing is live betting. The Nets have lost 12 games. they've only been inside of 10 points in two of those 12 games. If you get into the fourth quarter and the game's relatively close, you can get a great price for the lay of the points.

2:32:38Zach Lowe:Some live betting advice from house. The live betting stuff is really tremendous. The Nets to lose by 10 points, that outcome, when they're up against anybody that's reasonably good, that's a great angle to play.

2:32:50Bill Simmons:Sounds like on the Ringer Gambling Show, we need a Damon Jones special every night where you're like, this is too good to be true.

2:32:56Zach Lowe:Toronto was another one. Toronto, I've been riding. Nine out of 10 wins. The market hasn't really...

2:33:01Bill Simmons:Zach and I just talked about them in League Pass. They're playing good. Easy schedule, too, so they're gaining some confidence.

2:33:06Zach Lowe:The two teams that fit that are Phoenix and Toronto. Both of those, and the market hasn't really accounted for the identity of either one of those teams. Those two teams try. They're trying. They're not effing around. They're playing all the way through to the end. That's what you need at this early stage of the season. I had a great cheeseburger at the Waverly Inn last night.

2:33:26Bill Simmons:Oh, I'm so jealous. You're in New York. I'm in New York. I'm about to leave, but I'm in New York. And it's cold. East Coast. Yeah, it's cold. There's a lot of buildings. The cab drivers just seem like they've gone to another level of weirdness. Now that they can play stuff through their phones. Heard some interesting songs and different things. Cultural adventure. Yeah. Learned about some different cultures. There you go. And I'm ready to go back to LA. Do tell. Yeah. Do tell. Ready to go back. I see I'm surrounded by Yankees and Knicks fans and people who can't wait for Scam Cataboo to come back.

2:34:16Bill Simmons:Oh, no. Just get me out of here. Scam Cataboo. that's so so bad why'd you do that to him Cam Scadaboo anyway that's all I have to say other than it Stephen A. Smith made me mad today when he said that called Drake May a liar for saying he never watched first take did you see that whole story I like Stephen A but this one made me mad this is phenomenal Steve Drake May said he didn't know what show Cam Newton was on and Stephen A took umbrage and was like there's no way he doesn't know Cam Newton's on this show Drake May's a liar it seems semi-tongue-in-cheek but he was standing up for his guy I think it's conceivable Drake May wouldn't know that Cam Newton was on first take.

2:34:59Zach Lowe:Respectfully I would have needed three tries what show is Cam Newton on? I don't know, one of those ESPN ones. Drake May's a professional athlete

2:35:06Bill Simmons:who obviously isn't watching ESPN who works during the day on the East Coast he's got stuff to do in the morning first take's on from 10 to 12 you know what Drake May's not doing from 10 to 12 but it's Friday, watching ESPN So how would he know Cam Newton is on first take? I'm going to give Stephen A the benefit of the doubt. Standing up for his guy. I like that. As you know, I like Stephen A. But I didn't. Listen, don't come and Drake May. He's the most popular Boston athlete in a long time. People love Drake May. Has anybody come up? Drake May's wife now is becoming like a cult hero on Instagram.

2:35:37Bill Simmons:She cooks for Pat's fans. She does recipes. They ask her. People love Drake May. I mean, I could have had her on. It's a mistake by Stephen A. I could have had her on House of Carbs. We could bring that back. Could have. Maybe we'd bring it back just for her. For her, yeah. Yeah, this was... You can't come at Drake May. He's too popular. This was a real big mistake by our guy, Stephen A. We'll see. He's going to have to apologize.

2:35:58Zach Lowe:I don't think he's worried about the good people of Boston. I don't think he's trying to build bridges with Boston or New England. That might be true.

2:36:06Bill Simmons:He needs to apologize to me. Maybe just a text. Good luck. Send me a text, Stephen A. Just say, I'm sorry what I said about Drake May. House, good to see you guys. We'll see you on the Ringer Gambling Show on Sunday. 11 a.m. Which is now on all the Fandul Sports Networks. We're on 11 a.m. Wise Wade, you hit a 50 to one last week on that show. Kenneth Gainwell, two touchdowns. Unbelievable stuff by you. I'll see you next Thursday. Oh, I won't see you next Thursday. We'll have to figure out what we're doing next week for Thanksgiving. Yeah. Because on Thanksgiving, normally we do picks on Thursday, but on Thursday you eat all day, you fall asleep.

2:36:39Bill Simmons:I'll be up. Then you wake up and you eat more, and then you fall asleep, and then you eat a third time.

2:36:43Zach Lowe:Yeah, who knows where I'll be. I'll be busy one way or the other. All right. Bye house to you.

2:36:49Bill Simmons:All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to house. And thanks to Zach Lowe. Thanks to Gail and Eduardo as always. Thanks to our New York crew for helping us out. That includes bell and Caroline, Kate, Juliet Lippman, my old friend. She even like, I think moved some stuff around on the table, turned on some lights, uh, showed me where the studio was anyway, it was, uh, it was fun to do a podcast from here. Enjoy the weekend. I will see you on Sunday night live with Cousin Sal. Enjoy the weekend.

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2:38:58Joe House:Thank you.