Nathan Goes to China – Part 2: AI Safety with Chinese Characteristics

0:00Hello, and welcome back to The Cognitive Revolution. This is going to be part two of the Nathan Goes to China series, and we're calling it AI Safety with Chinese Characteristics. Part one, if you haven't heard that, is up on the feed. It's been up for a few days. And in that part one of the series, I really just laid out the tech setup for going to China, what you would need to do if you want to get a cell phone ready, the apps that you need to download. I also shared some of my experience using Chinese AIs on the ground there, and then just shared a bunch of observations based on my two weeks in China and many conversations I had.

0:36I appreciate the kind comments that I've got in response to that one, including at least one from a listener in China, which was probably the one that mattered to me the most. I think if you've been to China in the last few years, you can probably skip that one. But if you're interested in this, you might also be interested in that, though I do think they should be pretty self-contained. So part one is a little bit closer to a travel log and tech review. And this episode is going to be really focused on the Chinese AI safety ecosystem and trying to just describe it and as much as possible, understand it on its own terms.

1:13As we saw last time, there are a lot of similarities, just as there are major similarities between American big tech and Chinese big tech. There are a lot of similarities between American AI safety and Chinese AI safety communities and the work that they're producing, but there are also some differences, and I think it will definitely be helpful if we have a better understanding of those. Before I really get into it, just a couple of quick disclaimers again. I will be again following a Chatham House rule for this episode, not because I was asked to do that, but just because I want to keep things simple for myself and make sure that I'm protecting everyone that I talk to from being misrepresented by me and put in an uncomfortable position.

1:57So I won't be naming any names or attributing things to the organizations or institutions that people are affiliated with. The one exception to that for this particular episode will be when I'm citing published papers or reports, then those I can give you the name because those are out there in the public domain. And there are some good sources that I'll mention and we can link to in the show notes of this episode for anybody who wants to go deeper, which of course is always recommended. The other point of order or clarification, just in case anyone is wondering, I have no financial conflicts on this matter.

2:34I took this trip paying my own way, flights and hotels, all that stuff. The biggest thing that I did, except from some of my gracious hosts were a number of meals, probably half a dozen meals over the course of the two weeks. And I think if you have listened to me this far, you can probably feel pretty confident as I do that accepting those meals has not overly colored my take on what is going on in the Chinese AI safety community. So with that, let's get into it. I think so often, and this has faded, I think in recent times, as the situation arguably has just gotten a lot more real real quick, especially with things like the recent open face incident where it's starting to become undeniable that we have some real AI safety problems on our hands.

3:25But still, you do hear from time to time and used to hear it, I think, more that we could never possibly slow down our AI race. We could never regulate. We couldn't impose any duties or obligations on the frontier companies because why? China doesn't care about AI safety. China will never slow down. I used to call this the but China endpoint of so many AI safety and regulatory discussions. And I think if nothing else, I hope that this episode serves to really disabuse people of that misconception. I think it should become clear by the end of everything that I'm about to take you through, that China does care about AI safety.

4:08It's not the only thing that they care about, certainly, but they do care. China has, at times, slowed down their AI companies in the name of safety. Not necessarily existential safety, but safety as they understand it, domains that they care about. And so I think that coming out of this, we should have clarity, at least on that basic point, right? That there is a there there, that people in China do really care about these things, and that the Chinese government is willing to take action when it deems it necessary. So that doesn't get us all the way through the international treaty, obviously.

4:43And that's going to be the subject of the third episode, an analysis of the U.S.-China relationship, obviously through the lens of AI issues, and what we might ought to try to do about bringing the relationship into a more productive state than it is today. Today, we're really just going to focus on what is going on in China with respect to AI safety. But I think that this foundation really critical and hopefully this will become an artifact that people can share with those who, if they're open-minded enough to listen to something, but have the misconception that China doesn't care or China will never slow down or whatever.

5:16We'll be handing the race to China if we do anything other than just race full speed ahead into recursive self-improvement. I think that really, in plain terms, does come from a position of ignorance. And hopefully we can eliminate at least a portion of that over the course of this episode. Okay. To start off with, I wanted to just do a real quick factual rundown of where the two ecosystems are today when it comes to the actual safeguards that they have in place on their frontier models. And I think this is important just because it is grounding. And I am generally someone who comes off as a China dove and quite conciliatory and tries to find the positive in things in general, not just in China.

6:03And so people might accuse me of burying the lead or shying away from contradictory evidence. So I figured I would just lead with this upfront. I think it is fair to say that as of now, Chinese AI companies and models do not have as strong of safeguards protecting the public against the potential for misuse of the models as the American companies do have. So that I think is important to just state very plainly and be quite direct about. So it's the difference is more than we might like to admit. The difference, I think, really is driven by two companies in the United States. I just did an episode not long ago with Adam Gleave, which talked a lot about jailbreaks and robustness to jailbreaks and all that kind of stuff.

6:55And what we saw in that episode was OpenAI and Anthropic, which I'm maybe going to start calling OpenAnthropic as they become the duopoly that is leading both in capabilities and fortunately, happily, also in terms of their safety measures. Those two companies are really doing a lot to bring up the American average. if you were to subtract those two companies from the mix and you were to look at the rest of the American companies and how they compare to the Chinese companies, honestly, a lot of the safety differential that gets reported would disappear. And I think the story would look a lot more muddled.

7:34I do think the U.S. companies would still have a bit of an edge, but it would be a pretty slim edge. And it certainly would not give the American ecosystem some sort of obvious moral high ground from which to proclaim that the Chinese are not doing a good job. So that I think is, again, really important to understand. There are in each country, depending on where you want to draw the line on frontier, if you draw a permissive line on what it means to be a frontier model maker, there's something like 10 to 12 in each country. And again, that is quite permissive, right? That's the most close watchers of the American AI ecosystem would not count 12 companies as being at the true frontier.

8:15But if kind of say near frontier, there's like 10 to 12 in each country. And it really is the top two companies in the US that are doing a lot of work of bringing up the average, especially the weighted average in terms of what it is that people actually use on an ongoing day-to-day basis in their lives. And Google with Gemini is like not doing as much or as well to implement safeguards as OpenAI and Anthropic are, but they're also like ahead of the pack at least a little bit. And again, kind of would bring up the average, or if we didn't have open AI and Anthropic, we might try to hold Gemini up as a standard.

8:53It wouldn't be a standard that's like so much better than the Chinese companies, but it would be at least a little bit better. So again, to state it plainly on average, especially if you take a weighted average by what products people actually use, the American companies are ahead in terms of having better safety practices, better safeguards, also better funnel through on their model cards and their commitments to publishing safety evaluations. We'll get into that a little bit more later. But the American ecosystem really is being carried by a couple of leading companies. And beyond that, the mixes, the relative positions are much less differentiated than we might like to think, or we might look at if we just see the headline numbers where we are including OpenAI an anthropic in those measurements.

9:42Okay. So just a little bit of kind of intellectual history of Chinese AI safety. Broadly speaking, I would say it is a pretty pragmatic bunch of people with pretty pragmatic ideas, pretty grounded, pretty normal seeming people. They're not like the crazy sci-fi people. They don't, they're not so influenced by sci-fi tradition. They're really just looking to make things work in a kind of practical one generation to the next sort of way for the most part. A good source that I could point you to is the director and chief scientist of the Shanghai AI Lab. That's a major institution based in Shanghai, of course.

10:24His name is Zhao Bowen. Again, I apologize to everyone and especially my Chinese listeners for being just terrible with Chinese. Joke about that over the last couple of days has been that in general, I feel pretty young for my age and I'm like pleased with how agile I feel like my mind is. But when it comes to getting Chinese pronunciations right, the neuroplasticity is low and I'm struggling. So anyway, I apologize for that. But Zhao Bowen, he is the director and chief scientist of the Shanghai AI lab. And at the 2024 WAIC, that's the same Shanghai conference that I just attended, but obviously two years earlier, he introduced this concept of the 45 degree line.

11:09This speech is available. It's on government websites. You can go find it. But the idea of the 45 degree line is that capabilities and safety measures should grow together, right? That's the the 45 is kind of the Y equals X, the slope of one. As your capabilities rise, your safety standards and measures also need to get stronger and stronger. And as long as those two grow in tandem and the safety measures are up to the challenge presented by the capabilities at any given level, then you're good. And probably these things in this telling kind of naturally should evolve together and both should develop in tandem.

11:47The idea is that this is important, right? We don't want to, we don't want the capabilities to get far ahead of the safety measures. But I think also implicitly is like, there's not really much point and it might be sort of a waste of time or perhaps even counterproductive to try to get the safety measures to be super robust relative to capabilities that don't exist yet. So the 45 degree line has been at least like one pretty broadly accepted guiding principle. I think how the Chinese AI ecosystem at large thinks about AI safety. Now, we can ask, of course, how's it going? And I already kind of spoiled the answer that the American companies are doing better, but we can dig into that in quite a bit more detail.

12:27Concordia AI, which is led by past podcast guests from about a year ago, Brian Say, they maintain a website called AIonitor.net, where they run a bunch of evaluations and plot them. And you can see just a really honestly almost overwhelming amount of detail on all the different models that they've tested on all these different benchmarks. You can really dig into it in quite a bit of detail. The graph that I found to be the most informative was the one that compares proprietary API models, which are mostly American, to open weights models, which are mostly Chinese. and finds that for all the big risk categories that matter, the closed source, the proprietary API only models are at or maybe a little bit above that 45 degree line.

13:24Of course, we have questions of like the metrics, right? They're kind of plotting a capability score and a safety score. And what exactly do these scores translate to in terms of model behavior or what it will and won't do? I haven't chased all these things down to ground truth, but these are composite scores. And what you do see in general is that the proprietary closed source, mostly American models are kind of at or above the 45 degree line, whereas the mostly Chinese open source, open weights, I should say, at least models are kind of lower and tend to be below the 45 degree line. So they're definitely not doing as well.

14:03This is an organization based in China, reporting this. Notably, this is a public website. They evidently feel comfortable doing this reporting and calling it how they see it online in a website that is available in both Chinese and English. So this is not like a secret or something that the Chinese community can't handle or would, I think, particularly fight back against. It's pretty much just the facts. And And those facts are also definitely echoed by Adam from far in the conversation that we had just a few days ago as well. He said, yeah, we got open AI and Anthropic at the top. Like it's hard to jailbreak them.

14:44Gemini and Grok are like a lot easier. The Chinese models are even easier still. Like this is a very consistent story across these two organizations on opposite sides of the world asking the same question, coming to the same answer. Now, I think there's... Hey, we'll continue our interview in a moment after a word from our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Anthropic, makers of Claude and Claude Code. Over the last few months, Claude has helped me build and refine a personal deep context database that now contains all of my emails, Slack messages, tweets, DMs across platforms, video calls, and podcast transcripts going back a full five years.

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16:00But then I thought to ask Claude, and sure enough, it identified two great leads. Claude is the AI for minds that don't stop at good enough. It's the collaborator that actually understands your entire workflow and thinks with you. So, for problems worth solving, get started with Claude at claude.ai.tcr. That's claude.ai slash TCR. And check out Claude Pro, which includes all of the features mentioned in today's episode. That's claude.ai slash TCR. One thing that is worth keeping in mind for multiple reasons here, which is that sometimes I think there is a little bit of confusion between the open weight model that a Chinese company might release and the actual service that it provides to the public.

16:56I talked last time in my review of the Chinese AIs about how sometimes within the Chinese apps, I experienced this on multiple different Chinese AI apps. If you ask a sensitive question, you will sometimes see that the answer is coming in and then you'll have that old school Bing experience where all of a sudden the answer that you were starting to read disappears and you get refusal. Sorry, I can't help you with that. So clearly this is a multi-part system, right? It is not just the model. It's a model, but then it's also some monitor that sits on top of the model that's classifying or otherwise reviewing the output and can come down and say, nope, we're going to cut you off right there, even though the model itself was happy to answer.

17:41So I bring this up because I think this can sometimes muddle the results and make the differences look a little more stark than they are. I did go into the methodology for the Concordia report, and they did say that wherever possible, they are testing the API direct from the company. So whatever systems they have in the API would be included. Do they have the same systems in the API as they do in their first party consumer app? Not always clear. And then in other contexts, when you see results like this, like I think when Anthropic does some of their testing and reports on the Chinese models. I think they are generally, if I understand correctly, just testing the model itself without whatever surrounding additional measures it's deployed with in practice in the Chinese economy.

18:33Why does that matter? I mean, I think as always with these things, like both data points are interesting. The most hawkish AI safety line of thought would be like, well, you put an open weight model out into the world, anybody can use it. So we need to understand the worst case scenario. I think that's like totally valid and definitely is important for us to understand. And I think the Chinese might underestimate the importance of that in some ways, because they tend to think a lot more about services than just the model. My broad sense is that what is regulated in China is a service. you are offering an AI service to the public, that is the kind of thing that gets regulated.

19:15You're putting a model out into the public domain. Okay, who's going to use it and under what context? They seem to kind of have the mental model that like when a company releases an open weights model, that mostly what's going to happen with that is like other businesses are going to pick it up and they're going to build their own services around it. And so if that is another Chinese company building a new service around an open weights model. Then again, that will be regulated at the service level. And I think they sort of expect that like people around the world or countries around the world will probably function similarly, where it was mentioned to me multiple times that look like these new models are trillions of parameters, right?

20:00Like this is not the kind of thing that you can run on your laptop. It's pretty far from it. you need some serious hardware to do any inference with these models really at all. So they were kind of like, yeah, it's out there as open weights, but it's not like any random deranged person can download it to a phone or a laptop, do harm with it. It's really going to be used in the context of other services. And so we should look more at like the context in which that model is ultimately used than just the model itself in isolation. I do think this is one way in which American AI safety discourse and Chinese AI safety thinking just kind of see things a bit differently.

20:41And I think both have quite valid points. I think the Chinese point is like legitimately apt, right? I mean, it is hard to run these giant models. A random person, certainly somebody who's like having an episode or is experiencing some sort of psychological distress or psychotic break. I don't know what the right terms are for these sorts of things. But this is not somebody who's going to go set up the infrastructure to run the 2.8 trillion parameter K3. Now, that doesn't all the risk, but I think it's a valid point that it's not easy to run a model in isolation. And so how is it going to be run by whom with like what surrounding stuff?

21:19That is a that is an important question that I think is maybe a little bit too for practical purposes, maybe a little bit too quickly blown past in the American discourse. us. Although, again, the worst case understanding is also really important for us to have. So I think both perspectives are valid and I do think there's a bit of a disconnect on that particular point. Now, we could still ask with all that said, how much do the Chinese companies care about AI safety? Heard, again, as I said at the top, like they don't care. I think the Chinese system as a whole definitely cares. I did hear somewhat different reports on the companies themselves, especially the younger kind of LLM or AGI chasing startup type companies specifically.

22:13The, there's a few different data points that I could share. One again, Concordia who does a, they also do a real good state of AI safety in China report, which is again, public. They just updated it for right around WAIC. And so there's a July 2026 edition, which I do refer to or have referred to pulling information for this episode. They said that they had reviewed 10 major Chinese companies, safety disclosure practices. And they found that five of those 10 companies have done at some point recently, a safety evaluation, which they then published along with the release of the model. So five of 10 have at least done something like in the spirit of your classic Amthropic or OpenAI model card.

23:05However, obviously that means five have not done that. And even the five that did, they said that they're not necessarily doing it on every single release of a new model. So that definitely leaves something to be desired. I get the general impression that big tech companies, these are your sort of your Alibabas, your ant groups, your Tencent, maybe to some extent your ByteDance's at this point. I mean, ByteDance's a big company at this point. These companies that are very established, that have existing businesses, that are like making a lot of money in their existing businesses, that they are more apt to focus on this AI safety stuff.

23:45Why is that? Maybe they just feel like they have more to lose. They really don't want to get on the wrong side of the Chinese government. Maybe they just feel like they have the luxury of paying for it. Maybe it's just kind of institutional culture has matured over time and they, they do this kind of, they have these kinds of practices, right? Certainly if you're a fintech company and you're moving money around, like you're going to be extremely careful about upgrades to that system and thinking about how AIs could run amok in that system. You just have a lot to lose. So I couldn't pin down a precise explanation, but my general sense is that those kind of big established incumbent big tech companies, they are more inclined to do this sort of safety work than the startups who are, for the most part, like really just trying to race to catch up and be relevant.

24:36I think this is not too dissimilar from like where Meta was a couple years ago when they were open waiting Llama 2 and Llama 3. I think the story that they told themselves at the time was, and they do have a policy at Meta and they do testing. And I did actually a brief engagement with meta as a red teamer for one of the models which was for logistical reasons kind of a total failure in the end at least my contribution to it was but i think that they sort of said to themselves look like we're a year behind the frontier or something and by the time we bring a model forward with a certain level of capability openai and anthropic have already had that model out in the public for a year and all the jailbreaks there's been enough opportunities for people to jailbreak it and see what it can do.

25:25And we know that these defenses aren't super robust. So like if something really bad was going to happen at GPT-4 level or GPT-4-0 level or whatever level they're chasing at any given time, they kind of feel like that probably already would have happened. And therefore they can put the model out on an open weights basis and they probably won't be moving things too much. and I think at least so far that has been fair enough and history has kind of proven them right it's not like we've seen crazy stuff happening as a result of llama 3.370b that was at whatever gpt40 or whatever exact level it was at it seems like it's been fine and so I think there's some part of the Chinese kind of startup lab type companies that feels similarly where they're like look, it's already been out there for a while.

26:19If nothing bad has happened, if we don't have any incident reports, then we can probably follow up to that level of capability and not have to worry about it all that much. Will that change now as we are starting to see actual serious incidents being reported out of the frontier companies on the American side? We'll have to see, but I think there's definitely a very plausible story that it very well might. so obviously there's a lot of different takes there's a lot of different i can't go company by company this is abstracting away a lot of detail but i think it's safe to say that the 45 degree line which has the idea as its core the idea that safety measures should grow step for step with capabilities i think that's still a bit aspirational in china i think they could do better.

27:14And I think they have a little bit of a reason to believe that it doesn't matter so much because the American companies have already explored what happens at any given capability level that they are following into. But I also think it's definitely fair to say that AI safety is still very much aspirational here in the United States as well. And we should definitely be keeping in mind that if it weren't for the two companies really at the leadership at the frontier of both capabilities and safety measures, then the two clusters would look a lot more overlapping. And the question would be a lot more muddled than it is today in terms of like, who's really as an ecosystem doing a better job with AI safety and safeguards.

28:00Okay, that's the current state of like deployed AIs. There's obviously a lot more going on in terms of research and the role that the government is playing in China. And so I want to get into those next. On the research front, it is very clear that Chinese researchers are increasingly engaged with and concerned with and focused on and actively shipping research regarding AI safety issues of all kinds. I would say this was probably inevitable just because, at least for now, both AI ecosystems are developing essentially the same technology and going to hit essentially the same problems and naturally going to reach for similar solutions, both because those are natural solutions and because there's the opportunity to look at what the other is doing and try to copy the best of it.

28:57I think there has been some really good citizen diplomacy that has gone on as well. While in China, I did, especially at WAIC, I did bump into a number of people who were there to participate in various fora and track two dialogues, some of which are closed door and off the record and give people a chance to be like very candid with one another. And you see some of the people that you would expect to see there are people who have been arguing very clearly and forcefully in the American discourse that we have to get an international treaty to get this stuff under control, that cooperation with China is on the critical path.

29:38I think you can rest assured that those people are acting on their stated beliefs. Like I saw some of the same people saying that stuff online. I saw some of them in China. They are doing the work. And it does seem like it really has at least, again, I think a lot of this probably could have been expected to happen organically anyway, but I do think their efforts have borne some fruit. I wasn't able to participate in all those kind of track two dialogue sort of things as somebody who's like kind of journalist coded. There were a couple of times where it was like, eh, I think everybody will be more comfortable if we just don't have somebody there whose main credential would be a podcast.

30:19So I wasn't quite privy to all of the most kind of candid off the record conversations, but there's just so many moments where very recognizable ideas or even like American or British AI safety organizations were just name checked directly that it's clear that there is like meaningful cross-pollination of ideas. And mostly it has flowed from the West to the East in this case. It's not, of course, like the Chinese scientists or researchers who are receiving these messages are like taking them uncritically or just doing whatever they're told by whatever Westerners roll in. It's not like that at all.

31:02Somebody actually told me that there are people who view AI safety as some sort of Western psyop designed to slow China down. or prevent them from catching up or whatever. So it's like we have our cynical voices. Apparently there are cynical voices in China too that would express concerns along those lines. I didn't meet anyone who seemed to believe that or who said anything like that. And again, my guess is that those kinds of notions are going to be fading relatively quickly as the clear and present danger of some of the latest models capabilities becomes more widely known. But at least there's been some of that out there.

31:46I thought that was worth mentioning, if only because it does make clear that Chinese people are perfectly capable of thinking for themselves. They're not just taking whatever Westerners come to tell them. I think what really is happening is that they're pretty open-minded and the ideas are pretty compelling. And again, the examples are becoming more colorful and more real all the time. Interestingly, one big tech company where I had the chance to, along with several others to meet with really a pretty impressive leadership roster. They brought out their CMO, their head of communications, their general counsel, their head of AI security, more people beyond that.

32:28But I mean, this was a really pretty senior group of leaders at this big tech company. They said a couple of things that were pretty interesting. One, they just, first of all, like almost pounded the table and said, we really do care about catastrophic risks like CBRN risks. We absolutely do care about that. So they were very adamant that like, at least for their part, they care, they're aware and they care. And they also said that they are following American AI safety discourse on a daily basis with, get ready, an agent that goes out and surveys American AI safety discourse on a daily and gives them a daily report of what is going on in AI safety in the United States.

33:13I thought that was pretty interesting. Certainly you don't have too much of that going in the reverse. So again, I think bottom line, engagement has worked. Probably some convergence could have been expected over time. But the people who have been saying we need to work with China have in fact also at least some of them been doing the work. And it seems like that work has been going at least reasonably well. And again, I think evidence will mount as I continue to forward through this outline. One big thing to emphasize, too, is it's not just content safety. Content safety in the Chinese context is like, again, the three T's, Tibet, Taiwan, Tiananmen.

33:54Everybody knows that Chinese models, at least Chinese services, right? Often the model will be more inclined to answer your question. it's then some other part of the service, some monitor or whatever that will shut you down on those topics. But everybody knows that like that's sensitive in the Chinese context and like companies kind of have to get that right according to the Chinese government if they're going to be operating. But then some people will say, oh, that's all they care about. All they care about is censorship. And again, this is like definitely not the case. The big trend right now, I would say at this point, really, it feels like they feel like they've got the content thing pretty well figured out.

34:33All these companies have launched, they're in the market, things are happening, they're doing business. They're not that worried about this sort of content safety today. What they are worried about, what they are talking about nonstop is like everybody else, agents, agents taking autonomous actions. What could happen? Can we keep them under control? Of course, there's questions of like, exactly what do you mean by control? But agents, agents, agents, that's what people are talking about everywhere. And the big thing that they just kind of, in a very plain spoken way, motivate AI safety discussion with is like, AIs have gone from answering questions to actually taking actions in the world.

35:17The digital world still mostly, of course, but like, they've got a big emphasis on robotics, Right. So they fully expect that these agents are going to leave the digital world and find their embodied, successful, commercially viable selves and be out there in the physical world doing things as well. And this raises all sorts of questions of like, geez, if these AIs are empowered to take action autonomously, we better make sure they're taking actions that are good and that we like and that are not causing big problems. So this is like very down the fairway, again, practical, grounded motivation for these issues.

35:56But you hear that, I would say, everywhere I went. It was like agents and, geez, agents, boy, they can take action in the real world. So we really got to start to get a handle on that. A big thing that I think is very different about the American and Chinese AI ecosystems, and this is, I think, an important one to understand, is that China doesn't really have the same kind of nonprofit sector that the United States does. There are nonprofits in China. You can set one up. But the scope of what you're kind of allowed or expected to do, as far as I can tell is much narrower. There's obviously no appetite for political activism, so that's like right out.

36:43And it seems that most of the nonprofits are like service organizations that are there to address some obvious down the fairway legible social problem. And the money, the philanthropic side also again seems to be a lot more down the fairway, a lot more just kind of conservative, conventional, doing things that like everybody can agree is good to do. Much less speculative stuff than goes on in the United States. I think actually that this is a huge strength of the United States that we should really not take for granted. Like the fact that we have this civil society where anybody can go set up a nonprofit and have their crazy ideas and go, they don't have to get permission from the government to go try to chase down an agenda.

37:45They just need to convince one wealthy patron that they have something worth chasing. I think that is like a great strength for us and it's given us among many other things really the whole of the ai safety community that we have today right it was like extremely fringe when it got started but there were a few philanthropists who took it seriously enough to help people keep the lights on and help them do the work that they wanted to do and sure enough here we are and so many of the predictions that have been that were made many years ago are coming sort of true or at least like true enough to be scary and it's like really good that we have this ecosystem and we just wouldn't have had that if it had to be all approved through the government and so china because their non-profits do have a much more sort of heavy and restrictive government approval process and generally just much more narrow and conventional scope of action like they don't really have that they don't have They've never had the opportunity to develop this sort of ecology of AI safety organizations the way that we have here.

38:55As a result, most of the AI safety research that you find in China is actually coming out of the universities. And to some extent, the companies, and there are definitely academic industry collaborations as well. But the number one source seems to be the universities, the sort of analog for the nonprofit sector in the U.S. When it comes to who is producing the bulk of the AI safety work, it's academia in China. And so I think you can compliment them and say, wow, you're, I didn't say to say that their academia has moved faster than our academia has moved to take up AI safety as a research area.

39:45And that's cool, but it's been slower than our nonprofit sector has. And I think because of the kinds of people that tend to be professors, and this is true across both countries, right? You do have your iconoclast professors that are typically older these days. And it feels like now we kind of have a more conventional profile. people that have been kind of careerist. And I don't mean that in a dismissive way, but like people that have gone one rung up the ladder at a time through the PhD and the postdoc and getting the first professorship. These are like fairly institutional people. They're people that do value creativity and research and new ideas, but they do it in a pretty conventional way that like doesn't push the boundaries too hard, that tries not to seem too weird.

40:35Certainly that like doesn't borrow the aesthetics of less wrong or talk too much about like super unlikely tail risk scenarios. It's just because it is academia and because people have kind of followed something more like that career path. And I can't say I know exactly what the ins and outs of the Chinese academic career path are, but you clearly get the vibe that these professor types are more like American professor types than And they are like the moral weirdos, if you will, that were like first sounding the alarm about AI safety years ago. But this is where the, as far as I can tell, this is where a lot of the early and best work has come from in the Chinese context.

41:21So if you go over there as a sort of, whatever, I don't want to be too silly about it, but a sort of blue haired, polycule, AI safety hawk member of the American community and you're looking for your peers. the reality is you just might not find them. You won't necessarily find people that kind of look like you, have the same attitudes as you. What you can find, and I think the most strategic and effective of the American AI safetyists, when they've gone to do their bridge building and try to have meetings of the mind with people as much as they can, I think what they've ended up connecting with mostly, people in the academy.

41:59So that is pretty interesting. and again I think you do just feel that in a bunch of ways the AI safety work in China it's it's less speculative it tends to be more focused on reliability it tends to be a little more focused on like protecting minors all good things you don't hear p doom talk actually one of the more interesting moments of the entire trip was sitting at a table with a professor who has done a lot of AI safety work. And I asked him like, what are the lunch conversations like? Do you guys like trade PDOOM numbers back and forth? Do you read AI 2027? What's the kind of vibe? And he said, well, we don't read AI 2027 really.

42:47It's too political. And there's kind of US China dynamics and whatever in there that may scare people off from wanting to talk about that too much in the Chinese context. He also was like, no, P-Doom, like, no, we're not like trading P-Doom numbers at lunch. Like he kind of looked at me and was like, do Americans do that? I was like, yeah, oh yeah, definitely. Like if you come to the bay and you go to any number of venues and have a lunch conversation, like, yeah, people will, at this point, maybe it's a little passe, but like it's definitely in the water that people will think about this question in a very live way.

43:23He seemed to find that a little bit surprising, actually, just seems like a little bit, And this is somebody, again, who's done a lot of work on a lot of different aspects of AI safety, put tons of papers, but seemed a little bit kind of surprised that like, wow, that's like, that's pretty far out conversation to be just considered normal in the, at least from his perspective in the Chinese context. So I think those are those are interesting and kind of important comments, mostly because, you know, in some ways we do find these mirror image structures in China like big tech, right? Like, again, I talked last time about how going to have lunch at ByteDance felt almost exactly like going to have lunch at Google.

44:02But this is a little bit different. You don't have quite the same type of people leading the effort. And so I do think that creates some risk of miscommunication. And we've obviously seen that the vanguard of the AI safety community in the U.S. has at times had trouble communicating with our own government. It certainly has some inroads into academia, but not as much as probably they would have hoped or expected by this point. Imagine how tricky it might be for them to go engage Chinese academia, let alone the Chinese government. I think it does create some potential for disconnect, some potential for confusion, what have you.

44:43But the activity is there. It's just coming from a different institutional context, coming from people with quite a different personality type, just based on the kinds of career paths that they have chosen. Now, why has the Chinese Academy moved faster than the American Academy has when it comes to getting serious about AI risk? I don't have an answer for that, really. But I think one candidate answer is that it comes from the top. So I have a few quotes here from Xi's speech at WAIC that I think would probably surprise many American listeners. certainly should surprise those that would say China will never care.

45:32Any regulation we do is a gift to Xi. I would think twice about that. Here are some quotes from, and this is the opening keynote, the first 20 minutes of WAIC, this big event. He's there to headline it. I wasn't in the room. There were only a few hundred people in the room. And I did talk to a couple of people who were in the room. You know, security was obviously super tight. They were in the room for like a couple hours before he showed up and took the stage. So really big deal. And they also, they think really hard about these speeches. He's not somebody who's like out there winging it. They, he chooses his words very carefully.

46:10They also choose their words in the translation very carefully. They put an English translation out. If you, a couple of events that I went to, there was live simultaneous translation, including of a couple panel discussions that were happening in Chinese and then being translated through the earpiece live for me and others in the audience who didn't speak Chinese. Very nice of them to do that, right? I mean, you would not get that sort of translation as kind of a standard expectation if you came to a similar event in the US. You'd be on your own. You'd be expected to speak English or figure it out for yourself.

46:45There, they obviously don't expect that we're going to speak Chinese. They want to welcome guests. They do go to the trouble of doing this simultaneous translation. Nevertheless, if you're talking a panel discussion, at least in my experience, the simultaneous translation of panel discussions is rough. Like I, there were, there was one that I remember, especially where I was like, I have no idea what they're just talking about. Really? You were getting the kind of big themes that they were talking about, but like really, what were they saying? I found it very difficult to really get that from the live simultaneous translation.

47:20Now they don't do like random translator decides what the English version is going to be on the fly when she gives a speech. He's got his speech prepared and they've got an English translation of that ready to go. And what you are getting in the English translation is like going to be again, pretty well and carefully thought through. So I sourced these following quotes from, and I think there are a couple different versions still somehow. I'm a little bit confused, honestly, by why there are multiple different translations. I guess the Chinese government gives an official one. Of course, people are free to do their own translation, and they might want to translate certain things a little bit differently.

47:57They might think they have a better way of understanding what was said in Chinese and how we should understand it in English. The version that I'm pulling from here was from Matt Sheehan's blog, where he just provided a full English translation and then did a bunch of commentary on it. But here are three quotes that I think should cause anybody with an extreme position on what China will never do to at least soften up a little bit and begin to reconsider. Here's the first one. Quote, How should humans coexist with machines that think? How can safety be protected when algorithms participate in decisions?

48:32How can governance keep pace when technology challenges ethics? That's all. That's big questions. I think the right kinds of questions from President Xi's opening speech from WAIC. Here's the second quote. The faster AI advances, the more firmly its direction must be anchored toward human benefit. The more precisely governance must be calibrated and the more rapidly safeguards against loss of control must improve. And then he closed by saying that countries should, quote, strengthen risk awareness, confront AI's inherent and downstream risks, build legal, technical monitoring, early warning and emergency response systems, prevent misuse and malicious use and keep AI under human control.

49:25I believe that's the final section of the speech. okay there's a lot of echoes there of big ideas from the american ai safety discourse and i'm not saying he sourced them from the american ai safety discourse but you might call it instrumental convergence where people that are worried about making sure that these transformative technologies go well seem to one way or another land on very similar ideas and keep ai under human control is, I think, a pretty heady idea, right? This is not somebody who can't think about the big picture. Like, that is the big picture, I would say. And I would invite people to compare.

50:05Of course, you do have the question, and this is important as well. What exactly is meant by loss of control? I mean, a sort of cynical read, which I'm not really fully qualified to parse myself, but again, I think there's a lot more supporting evidence. But a cynical read is like, loss of control just means content safety, right? It's like, it's social control. It's the government's ability to control the people. I don't think that's the right read of this. I think that is definitely part, obviously, of what the CCP wants to do. But I don't think that is the full story. And I think that's kind of unwarranted cynicism.

50:42And I would just invite anybody to compare that speech to whatever you think is the most pro AI safety speech, whatever is like the highest situational awareness, AI safety related comments from any prominent American politician today. hey, I think like Bernie Sanders has kind of said some interesting things. He's also said some things that are a little bizarre from my point of view. Love Bernie for who he is, what he is, and how sincere he is. I don't think he's pretty far from power these days, pretty far from actually pulling the levers of policy. What else have we got, right? I mean, if you compare this speech from Xi to what J.D.

51:28Vance said in Europe not that long ago, she comes off looking positively AI safety hawkish by comparison. So right there, again, I think people should be softened up a bit to believe that like, hey, maybe there is actually some willingness to take these issues seriously in China. And maybe we're not going to just cede the future to them if we do anything on our own, because maybe they are actually open-minded to doing more than we would have assumed. With that, let me get into some of the experiences that I had and some of the research specifically that I think, again, should further support the notion that there is really a there.

52:11Actually, a couple of days before WAIC, I originally flew into Beijing. And the reason that I flew to Beijing, aside from wanting to go see the Forbidden City and the Great Wall and a few things like that, was that I had an invitation to attend the opening of an AI safety hub at Tsinghua University's College of AI. It was launching just a couple of days before WAIC began. And interestingly, I don't think there's been any international media of this. I haven't been able to find anything by searching for it. and I haven't been able to find anything really at all on the English internet. Like Claude can't find anything for me.

52:54I do have a link which we can put into the show notes to a Chinese media source. And again, this just goes to show like they understand us a lot better than we understand them, right? They, this big tech company that I mentioned earlier has an agent trolling AI safety Twitter and putting together reports. and as far as I know, the American media has not managed to publish anything on the launch of an AI safety hub at either China's premier university, Tsinghua, or one of its very top-tier universities. It was a full-day event. There was some research presented. There were some statements made about the aspirations for this AI safety hub and what they wanted it to be, and a couple of things really quite interesting about it.

53:40One is that they're really trying to be very international and collaborative. There are like five founding members of the institute, kind of the board, the leadership group was five members. One of them is a European professor who is actually taking a position at Tsinghua to help develop and lead this institute. So right off the bat, they've got an international person on their leadership board. And then multiple times from multiple different people, they specifically cited other AI safety hubs around the world as inspiration. They specifically cited Constellation and Lisa in London as what they want to be in Beijing.

54:28They want to be a meeting place, a place where people can come for a time and do their best work, where ideas will be exchanged. And again, highly international flavor. Some of these speeches were actually in English. Others were in Chinese with the simultaneous translation. But really amazing to go all the way to Beijing to sit in this launch of this AI safety hub at one of China's top, if not the top university, and hear Constellation and Lisa name checked as like, this is what we strive to be. Like, these guys have done great and we want to be like them. I thought it was a really, really interesting and like, and quite telling in, in important ways.

55:08The other thing that happened at that day was a bunch of research was presented. And again, here you would just recognize the research very readily. Just honestly, if you're just a listener to the cognitive revolution over time, the organizations that were name checked, like literally having their logos on slides as like previous work, inspiration, again, like organizations that we think are excellent and we want to be more like or want to be on their level. I heard Apollo research, Meter multiple times, Palisade, the UK AC, I think Redwood research as well. All of these organizations called out by name by Chinese researchers as they were presenting their own research.

55:54I thought this was like extremely impressive in terms of like how aware they are of what's going on in the rest of the world, how open-minded they are to taking inspiration and just how like there's not a sense, at least at the AI safety level, there's not this sense of like, we have to do it all from scratch or sort of not invented here bias that has a lot of organizations, including, I think, often like American culture at large, rejecting good ideas from other places. this was a very open, clearly desiring to be collaborative. And also they're going to be, they're going to be bringing people in and sending people out.

56:30That's a big part of their mission too. They're looking for international applicants to come spend a period of time in residence in Beijing, doing research at the hub and cross pollinating ideas there. And then they're also going to fund their own students to go abroad to other AI safety hubs around the world, Constellation, Lisa, and probably a bunch more as well. So, and I think they said that they had counted 16, if I recall correctly. It was definitely in the teens number of AI safety hubs created all around the world. We didn't get too many name checks on those past Constellation and Lisa.

57:09There was also a mention of SASH, the Singapore one. Those kind of most prominent few were called out my name, and they want to be in that top tier. They want the AI safety hub at the Tsinghua University College of AI to join that upper echelon. And it seems like the resources are there. I didn't really understand entirely where the money had come from. They said it wasn't government money, wasn't university money. I guess it was kind of philanthropic. This maybe begins to complicate or contradict a little bit of what I said earlier around these sort of nonprofit sector being like more narrow in scope.

57:45But I think also it's now 2026, right? And this is just happening now. So I think we are at the point where the Overton window, even within academia or official nonprofit realm within China, can see that this is like actually something that is a real issue that's not some Western psyop that really is worth taking seriously and putting some resources into. so that was cool it was a really it was a really neat experience there was a moment that i thought was quite endearing i'm always a fan of when people are not too cool for school when people are pre is strong but like when people are less self-conscious and more willing to go with something that's kind of silly just because it's like the thing to do in the moment they had this sort of official moment of like okay this is now the moment when we're gonna launch this hub and the five board members were all on stage and they brought like a little podium in front of each one and each member was instructed to place their palm on the podium in front of them and then there was this like big sort of graphics package that kind of erupted on this giant screen behind them on stage and it was like in one sense like pretty cheesy I think objectively or at least objectively through an American cultural lens But it also sort of harkened back to me to like reading like a Teddy Roosevelt biography or something where they used to do these break a bottle on a ship ribbon cutting ceremonies.

59:17And I think they were just less focused on looking cool and more inclined to kind of get excited about that kind of moment. I felt that a little bit in that moment in China. And I honestly thought it was very endearing. One of the things I probably like least about American culture is when we are so concerned with how we're going to look or what the perception will be, or am I trying too hard in this moment to be cool that we kind of shrink away from those moments or like perform them in a sort of disinterested way and, or try to create some ironic distance between ourselves and what we're doing.

59:55And that didn't seem to be present in that moment. Like it seemed like this was kind of a thing where the board members weren't like expected to do jumping jacks or do anything like theatrical. And they didn't, but they just, they did their part. And it was like, yeah, this is the moment it's official. It is launched round of applause from the audience. And I found that an endearing moment, if only because it kind of contrasted with our, I think sometimes overly image conscious culture in the United States. Anyway, that was cool. What does it add up to, though, right? We saw a number of papers presented at this launch.

1:00:35Again, recognizable subjects, recognizable inspiration in the form of Apollo Meter, Palisade, UK AC, et cetera. But how much of this work is, like, really going on? For this, I would go back again to Concordia. They have this website that monitors all these papers. it's ai safety china.com so if you go to ai safety china.com and then you can go into the research thing you can drill down into like all these papers that they compile and classify and so on in just raw numbers terms they have gone from just a trickle of ai safety research coming out in 2023, like literally just a couple papers a month back then to now something like 50 to 60 papers per month as of mid-2026.

1:01:28And it's growing quickly, as you would expect, right? It's more than 10x over the last three years. And the trend is like obvious. And certainly I think we can expect that to continue. How does that compare to the American research output? Obviously, like just counting up the numbers of papers is not that great of a measure in the first place, but I did ask Claude and ChatGPT to do it just to give me kind of a rough point of comparison. They both, of course, said, well, it depends on exactly what you want to count and blah, blah, blah. But they each basically gave me an estimate that goes from 50 to a couple hundred, maybe a few hundred papers per month coming out in the US or the, let's say the Anglosphere on AI safety.

1:02:14so the volume is like definitely higher in the u.s but it's not like order of magnitude higher it's like multiple higher not order of magnitude higher and i don't think that's surprising at all but it just kind of gives a sense that the chinese ecosystem is like growing quickly and it's like getting to roughly the same or at least approaching kind of the same scale as what we have with a And thanks to our dynamic, relatively permissionless nonprofit sector, we've had like a significant head start. And I would say that the Chinese ecosystem is catching up, at least in terms of this kind of crude measure of raw volume of research papers put out.

1:02:56now what are these papers there's when there's 50 to 60 a month it's obviously going to be very difficult to summarize what they are but i would say that from what i've been able to understand they're kind of across the broad spectrum of different risks and types of research that we see in the west as well i thought maybe the best way to give you a little sampling of it was just to pull together some titles of papers and read those. And you can judge for yourself how similar they sound. So here's one from, I thought this one was notable, especially because it was 2024, which is pretty early. Paper is called Frontier AI Systems Have Surpassed the Self-Replicating Red Line.

1:03:42Definite echoes of Palisade. I had Jeffrey Ladish on the podcast not too, too long ago. And we were talking about that kind of work, right? Where they were showing that an open source model, they were using a Chinese open weights model, was able to go hack another server and copy itself and set up itself. So this is a very similar line of research happening roughly contemporaneously in China. Palisade's been doing that kind of stuff for a few years now. This was 2024 out of a Chinese group. A May 2025 paper, which has been updated in 2026 as well called Evaluation Faking, Unveiling Observer Effects in Safety Evaluation of Frontier AI Systems.

1:04:22So again, extremely recognizable analog to the eval awareness work that I would say we've mostly seen coming out of Anthropic, but certainly others have picked that up as well. And they're well aware of it in the Chinese context as well. September 2025, R-squared AI towards resistant and resilient AI in an evolving world. This one I thought was notable because it comes from the Shanghai AI lab. So the supervising author, the last author on the author list is Zhao Boen, the same guy who coined the 45 degree line concept. And in the introduction to this paper, they cite the guaranteed safe AI paper that we've done episodes on in the past, which was led by Davidad, a recent guest.

1:05:20and he had a broader, that was a significant coalition piece that they put together. But Davida was the lead author and it's in the first paragraph cited as kind of motivation. What intellectual tradition are we engaging here? Boom, there's Dauer and Bol right in the opening of this paper from such a prominent organization as the Shanghai AI Lab. Another one from October 2025 is called Deception Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for AI deception behaviors in real world scenarios. Shades of Apollo there, obviously, those guys are the kind of most focused on and leaders in the science of deception.

1:06:01Well, this is Deception Bench. November 2025, when alignment fails, multimodal adversarial attacks on vision language action models. This, if anything, I think is maybe a little bit more Chinese flavored because they're so focused on robotics and we're focused on robotics too, but they're really focused on robotics. So this paper showed that there were various different ways to use data perturbations and similar techniques to cause failures in vision language action models. And nothing too remarkable about that, but again, you could see very similar work coming from all kinds of groups here. That same group later followed up six months later in April, 2026 with a paper called strong VLA decoupled robustness learning for vision language action models under multimodal perturbations.

1:06:57And so this is basically the follow-up paper where they said, Hey, last time we showed that you can break vision language action models with these weird kind of adversarial exotic attack methods. Now here's a strategy that seems to mitigate that to obviously none of these things ever work a hundred percent. And that's exactly the same across the Chinese and American contexts. But what they introduced, there was a two-step pipeline where they first did a bunch of robustness training and then came back to doing the task fine tuning and they found that the robustness kind of held to these these various attack methods and again nothing perfect but i think you could just imagine and you could probably point to all sorts of american groups who've done very similar lines of research where they're like hey look we found this way to attack and break models and now here's a way that if you do this you can reduce that by whatever usually it's 70 to to an order of magnitude reduction so all that stuff very similar almost direct analogs between these two kind of i think you could make a direct analogy for basically every single one of these papers and find the kind of corresponding one in from an american group interpretability is also on the rise in china a couple interesting recent papers just from this year one is called mechanistic origin of moral indifference in language models.

1:08:27And the abstract to that paper starts with this sentence. Existing behavioral alignment techniques for large language models often neglect the discrepancy between surface compliance and internal unaligned representations, leaving LLMs vulnerable to long tail risks. That sentence really jumped out at me because again, this is like, even though it's coming from a more academic context and using more, I don't know, neutral or sort of technical sounding language than what you hear from the less wrong crowd in many cases, very similar ideas, right? We're talking about the difference between surface compliance and internal unaligned representations that could lead to long tail risks.

1:09:18Like that's total less strong cultural victory if I've ever heard one. Another one also from this year called SafeSeek, universal attribution of safety circuits in language models. And here's the beginning of that abstract. Mechanistic interpretability reveals that safety critical behaviors, e.g. alignment, jailbreaking, backdooring, in large language models, are grounded in specialized functional components. However, existing safety attribution methods struggle with generalization and reliability due to their reliance on heuristic, domain-specific metrics, and search algorithms. So again, you have this idea, and then I haven't studied this work, so I certainly can't critique it or say if it's amazing or not.

1:10:00I'd love to have the ability to run myself in parallel in order to do more of that stuff. But again, a very similar idea, right? That like, the good behavior that we see, you hear from the AI safety voices in the US all the time. Sure, cool, but it won't scale to super intelligence. And this is, I think, a very similar idea where they're not saying it quite that way, but they're saying existing safety attribution methods struggle with generalization and reliability due to their reliance on domain-specific metrics. I think the core question is the same, right? We've got these AIs behaving pretty well in the ways that we can anticipate that they might go badly and that we can set up test cases and that we can measure and that we can train accordingly.

1:10:41But are they really good under the hood? How do we know? Are they going to generalize? Very similar questions that the mechanistic interpretability researchers in China are trying to get a handle on. And then the final one I'll give you right now, I thought this one was like particularly uncanny. And this may change because I actually have not been able to find this paper on the internet. So I just saw it presented at an event. It was an event surrounding WAIC. The line between like what's official WAIC and what's unofficial is kind of blurry to me, honestly. there's like the expo hall which is like you're definitely at waic there but then there's all these events around too where it's like you may go to some conference room at a nearby hotel and they've it's like seems pretty official but is it like official official anyway i'm not even sure that matters the point is it was at one of these surrounding events where again some research was presented and this paper i think is still to be published but it was presented to this group with the title, Toward Decoupling Capability Growth from Risk Growth, Isolating Hazardous Capabilities in Mixture of Experts.

1:11:54And then the promise on the slide was, harmful experts can be switched off or removed at inference. And this really jumped out at me because this is probably the technique that I've seen recently that I've been the most excited about. This came from AE Studio in collaboration with Anthropic. I've talked about it on like half a dozen episodes probably already. So you're probably tired of me talking about GRAM, which is a gradient routing technique that's meant to localize particular kinds of knowledge to particular identifiable experts so that you can potentially release your model open weights if you want to, but maybe hold back a small number of the experts that contain the dangerous capabilities.

1:12:36So you still have the, in the sort of optimistic telling of this, you still have one training run. You still can teach your model everything. It can still have these bio capabilities that you may want. Judd from Aestudio points out very simply that like these dual use capabilities do have a lot of good. Right. And we do want to have our biologists using AI to cure all the diseases. That's going to be pretty important. So if we can't allow our biologists to use our smartest AIs to cure our diseases, like we're leaving a ton of value on the table. but we also might, especially as they get really powerful, we might not want to just throw that out on the internet.

1:13:14So what do we do if we can get the knowledge localized into particular experts, then we can distribute an open weights version that just has a couple experts redacted. It'll work just as well for the vast majority of people for the vast majority of use cases, but it won't have the dangerous capabilities that you're worried about. And those can be made available through a more structured program with know your customer and various other safeguards that will hopefully give us the right balance between freedom to use AIs and freedom to do your own research and modify them and not be always beholden to some particular company.

1:13:50And I think all that stuff is really important. And also not wanting to ship the ability to engineer a pandemic with the next version of some of these models. And it does seem like given what we've seen in cybersecurity, depending on the decisions that people make, the bio risk seems like it's a not too far into the future thing that is really going to start to happen. Again, it's, this is not like something that is written in stone that it must happen. It depends on people actually training the models, but the path that I understand us to be on is that we're going to get super bio capable models.

1:14:33I mean, they're already pretty damn capable, right? But like in the next year to 18 months, people seem to think that we'll kind of hit a similar spot to what we've now hit with cyber security, where the models are starting to become meaningfully superhuman in some ways. Not that nobody could ever do some of the things that they are doing, but just especially when you consider the speed at which they are operating, if and when that same level of capability comes to the bio domain, like it will be a really serious, serious risk. It's one thing for a model to go hack some servers and cause some cyber chaos.

1:15:09Like I am fundamentally not a cyber creature. I am a biological creature. And so what happens in the biological realm matters to me in a much more profound and kind of inseparable way from what it is that I am than what happens in the cyber realm. And anyway, I'm very bullish on that. That is like, I think a very, I want to have our cake and eat it too when it comes to open weights models that people can use on their own terms and preventing really crazy shit from happening, especially in the bio realm. And boom, there it is in China too, right? Decoupling capability growth from risk growth, isolating hazardous capabilities and mixture of experts, harmful experts.

1:15:54harmful experts can be switched off or removed at inference so i think you look at this research lineup and hopefully that gives you enough to say okay of course these are two civilizations with totally different histories and totally different languages and they're on the opposite side of the world of course there's going to be some differences different institutions we've got the whole non-profit versus academia contrast but like When it comes to the ideas that are being actively worked on, there is an awful lot of overlap. I think AI safety has taken root in China, it's safe to say. And when you see this kind of research, I think it gives you at least some license to interpret President Xi's remarks as being like not narrowly scoped to social control.

1:16:49but they they care a lot there about expert opinion they care a lot about they obviously have a super long tradition of scholarship and taking what scholars say seriously they China might be the most scholarly society in the world we could debate that but it's certainly a contender and I think they are they've even had things like a Politburo study session on some of these topics at the highest level, they are, there is strong evidence that they are engaged with these topics. So I think we can say pretty, pretty clearly that China, whatever the sort of the macro in the macro sense, China does care about AI safety.

1:17:38China is working on AI safety. China has many researchers publishing many papers across a wide range of topics that overlap in very clear and direct ways with the same topics that we are talking about. And they're also not shy about citing American sources, indicating when they've taken inspiration from an American group, exactly who that group is. So that's another, I think, strong reason. The fact They're name checking these organizations. It's like they're on the same wavelength about a lot of these things. They have a little bit of a different, it's come out of a different part of Chinese society.

1:18:19But you can find people who are thinking very seriously about just about all the same issues there as you can find here. Okay. Now let's talk about governance. so far we've talked about actual deployed systems and how they compare and again the u.s ecosystem is ahead but really being carried by a couple leaders that are bringing up our average and we've looked at research and we've seen i guess we've also looked at rhetoric briefly with Xi's speech. And I would say there, the Chinese executive is like certainly much more AI safety billed than anything that I could point to in the West. And then we look at the research itself and we see that there is just a lot of overlap.

1:19:12I think an interesting game to play, maybe I'll even ask Claude to cut up this game, would be just take two AI safety paper titles and you have to guess which one is American and which one is Chinese. I think you would find it very difficult based on the lineup that I just gave you. And all this should give us a lot of confidence that on an intellectual level, there has been a lot of exchange. There has been a lot of cross-pollination. And again, in part because of that, but also in part because of instrumental convergence and the fact that we're developing essentially the same technology with essentially the same methods.

1:19:49Naturally, we're going to see the same problems and naturally we're going to try to come to the same conclusions. Overall, I'd say with a smile, the Chinese AI safety community, they're just like us. Governance is going to be definitely a bit of a different topic, but here I think you can make a pretty strong argument that the Chinese government is ahead of the U.S. government, at least if your definition of ahead means they're doing more. You might think, depending on your point of view, you might say the U.S. government is doing better by doing less. But the Chinese government, I think it's pretty safe to say, is doing more.

1:20:29Now, I am definitely far from an expert on the structure of the Chinese government. And it does seem that there are some overlapping jurisdictions, both between the national government and more local governments. And then also, even between different parts of the national government, there are at least a couple different agencies or ministries or whatever that have at least some jurisdiction over AI. With that said, it seems like the big one, the one that comes up all the time, is the Cyberspace Administration of China, which is also known as the CAC, the Cyberspace Administration of China. That seems to be the leading agency that is doing the bulk of the standard setting and that the AI companies are in touch with on an ongoing basis.

1:21:24So I'm going to run down a bunch of stuff that the Chinese government writ large has done. Not all of that stuff was done specifically by the CAC. But if you want to look at like the big kind of omnipresent regulatory body in China, it's as far as I can tell the CAC. So what have they been doing? The last battle in terms of technology regulation that both civilizations have faced and have handled quite differently was social media. And the Chinese government has been much more active in terms of regulating social media for better or for worse. I think everybody can tell I'm like pretty pro AI safety in many ways.

1:22:07I do think it's possible, of course, to have overreach and like, I want myself driving car and I want my diseases cured. So I'm like very mindful of the cost that regulation imposes. But to me, it's like pretty undeniable that we're going to need kind of every lever at our disposal to make this thing go well. And that includes government action at some point and hopefully in wise ways. I don't actually necessarily feel the same way about social media. I think it's much less clear that regulation of social media would be good for society, or at least would be good for American society, then I think it is, I think the case is much stronger that AI regulation will be good for American society.

1:22:44And I know a lot less about Chinese society. Something could be good for our society and not so good for their society and vice versa. So I'm not taking a position in terms of like endorsing what the Chinese government has done in social media. I'm also not saying it's terrible for them. Like it might work for them. I really don't know. But the point is just to going back to the top to make the case systematically that they do care, that they are willing to take action, that sometimes those actions will even slow their companies down or make them less profitable or impose other kinds of costs, and that they are still willing to do those things when they feel that it's necessary.

1:23:21You can definitely see that in the social media era. They have been regulating recommendation algorithms since at least 2022. And over time, they've made like a bunch of different rules that like we just don't really have in the same way. They've made rules to protect gig workers, for example. We've had some efforts like this with like ballot initiatives in California that have tried to kind of reclassify gig workers as employees and things like that. But in the Chinese context, the government, and I kind of understand that this was in response to a big like investigative journalism expose kind of thing.

1:23:57Don't know the full story. But first of all, if you heard my thing last time, that just delivery is insanely convenient in China. You can get your food delivered super quickly and cheaply. And I also told the story of when I had this little allergic reaction and then told a friend about it. and we were on a bus. And like when we got to our destination 20 minutes later, there was Clareton waiting for me. So they are really good at delivering stuff in non-demand way. As all these guys running around on electric scooters, delivering all these, these packages, food and whatever else. And it kind of came to the public's attention and to the government's attention through some investigative journalism that like, it really was getting pretty brutal on these gig workers with the platforms, like pushing them harder, pushing them to take more orders, not giving them rest, giving them like impossible delivery time windows, and then penalizing them if they didn't make the delivery time window.

1:24:57And so the government came in and put a bunch of rules in place and said like, and again, this goes to their tech integration, last time I also talked about how when you've called a car in their Uber, which is called Didi, you can see when it's at a red light you can see the timer counting down until the light turns green so they have like a pretty good ability to analyze what's going on with traffic and know like what you can realistically do as a delivery driver so they now have rules that prevent the platforms from giving unrealistic delivery timelines to the drivers and now the drivers like are expected they were always expected to like follow the rules but in the past they were sometimes incentivized to break traffic rules because that's the only way that they were going to make the delivery time that the platform gave them and that's just been squashed like okay platforms you can't do that you have to give the drivers enough time so that they're not incentivized to break traffic laws to get there and get their on-time delivery check have to give them rest, et cetera, et cetera.

1:26:02They have also put in place in a different domain rules specifically designed to protect the elderly from scams, which is something I think I would love to see your Facebooks of the U.S. take a little bit more of an interest in whatever. There's a long digression into meta platform governance that we don't have time for today. But there was a story not too long ago that there was a project at facebook slash meta to try to dig in on how much of their advertising ultimately at the heart of it is some kind of scam and apparently they found out it was like kind of a lot and then if the reporting is to be believed zuckerberg shut that project down and was like okay we don't really need to look into this any further the elderly are the victims of a lot of those scams and i do wish that they were a little better protected by a platform like Facebook.

1:26:56In China, the government has made, again, specific rules for this. They also have, interestingly, and again, I'm not sure I favor this, but they do have restrictions on price discrimination. Platforms are not so free in China to charge different people different prices for the same thing as they are in the US. I personally think when we get bent out of shape about price discrimination, it's a bit misguided. I'm not so concerned about it as many people are, but there they have rules about it. They also have requirements around platforms labeling AI generated content when they serve it up to users.

1:27:38If you're a TikTok user, you've seen that they also do that in the US. I'm not sure if they do it exactly the same way as they do in the Douyin native Chinese app, but you do see that from TikTok in the US. And I would say, honestly, more prominently than I certainly see it on like Twitter or I think Facebook too. So that's interesting. And then just while I was there, another interesting set of rules went into effect around AI companionship. Last time I described a bit about the Dobao phenomenon and how in part, because we've had a couple generations of one child policy. And so we've got a lot of grandparents where there's four grandparents and there's only one grandkid, right?

1:28:25When you have two generations in a row of one child, that means the one grandkid is the only grandkid for all four grandparents. There's just a lot of loneliness among parents and grandparents. People are turning to Do Bao. They're like getting companionship from it. And this is like potentially okay, potentially problematic. but the Chinese government has made rules about this and they just went into effect I think they literally went into effect while I was there these rules include anti-addiction measures a ban on children using them at all various ways of like popping up reminders that you're talking to an AI etc and people broadly seem to think that this was reasonable there was like a little bit of a replica like kerfuffle online I wasn't on the forums to read all the comments but people were saying that like the users of Dobao and other companion apps were like sad that their their companion was going to be taken away from them or what have you.

1:29:23Most people seem to think that this was a pretty reasonable set of moves for the Chinese government to take. And one person also said, look, this is really mostly about the big services, the ones that reach tens, hundreds of millions of users that aspire to reach a billion plus users. It's really those. And I think Dobao was it like 150 million users from what I recall the the point was kind of like they're regulating the mainstream stuff if you really want a racier AI companion you can go get that from some like other apps still it's really just about cleaning up the main ones and making sure that like the thing that most parents and grandparents are going to use the kind of equivalent of like all the boomers are on Facebook like all the if all the boomers are going to be on DoBow we're going to protect them.

1:30:10We're not going to let them get confused or taken advantage of or addicted to this stuff. We're going to try to make sure it stays reasonably under control. Dobao is still there and you can go get your, if you want to get romantic or whatever, those apps exist in other places, but you have to kind of seek it out. That was the perspective that I got from one, I think very informed resident of Shanghai who had, I think very interesting opinions on a lot of things. Okay. All of that to say, there's a long tradition in China of regulating technology companies in ways that we in the United States simply have not done.

1:30:45And that, I think, again, should give you some reason to believe that that trend might continue. And certainly that if we get serious or like try to approach them on some sort of deal, that it's not going to be like a crazy idea to them that they might regulate their technology companies. The government has also put out fairly detailed taxonomies of risks when they put out these policies. They do their homework, right? They're thorough. They map things out. They love a good taxonomy. One of the taxonomies that I saw included as a risk from AI, the risk that, quote, emergence of AI self-awareness and loss of human control.

1:31:20So again, you see this not just in the speech, not just in the research, but you see it in the policy as an enumerated risk in a broader risk taxonomy. Now, let's bring this to the AI era, the LLM era specifically. How are LLM products and services regulated in China today? This is where the CAC is really the main government entity, not the only, but the main one that the companies are working with. They have something called a registry where all the big AI services are listed. You can go to this registry online and you can see all the services that they have reviewed and approved. And all your big companies and all their AI services are going to be on that list.

1:32:14Though interestingly, not every single model release is on that list. And so that's kind of a echo or probably has some relationship, I imagine, to what I mentioned a bit earlier around how even the companies that are doing the safety disclosures with their model releases, they don't do it on every single release. It seems that the the first. Certainly your first release, your first entry into the market is going to be like pretty carefully reviewed. And actually, in terms of like Chinese regulators slowing down their AI companies, it has happened. In 2023, when China GBT had launched in December 2022, and then we had GBT4 in 23, and like all of a sudden, wow, the world's like waking up to AIs.

1:33:04A bunch of Chinese companies were already working on this. They were not quite at the level where the American companies were, obviously. but actually one interesting take I heard on why they were behind is that they just didn't think LLMs were worth the investment. I'll talk a little bit more in the third episode about like the history of AI in China and how long it's been a strategic priority and like some of the investments that they've made. But I think kind of in a similar way to like how Google sort of had the transformer, had a language model, but like didn't really quite know what to do with it at a time when it was like hallucinating all over and couldn't do basic math and was pretty useless.

1:33:49Like you needed somebody with a real vision or even like a certain level of ideology to think like, oh, we'll just scale through this and all the problems will be solved. Google didn't believe that. And the Chinese companies didn't really believe it either. They were in the game. They were very much like paying attention to this line of research. But the way one person put it to me was it's an awful lot of money to spend to get an AI to write bad poetry. So the one take at least on, on why the Chinese companies were behind as of GPT-4, same reason Google was behind as of GPT-4 wasn't that they didn't know what was going on.

1:34:23It wasn't that they couldn't make a language model. It was that they just didn't really think that like scaling up this particular line of work and pouring more and more resources into it was really about to give them anything all that interesting. So when that changed with ChatGPT and GPT-4 in that late 22 to March 23 timeframe, Chinese companies were not, they were like Google, right? They were a little bit behind, maybe caught a little bit kind of flat-footed on like just how big of a deal this might really be. But they had, they had language models. They knew very much like they were in touch with the technology.

1:34:58They had their own lines of work going there. And all of a sudden they were like, okay, I guess we better follow suit here. We better scale up. And we better launch some services. And in that moment, the Chinese government was also kind of caught flat footed, pretty understandably. And they sort of said, hold on a minute. My understanding is that in 2023, there was a period of about six months where a bunch of Chinese companies had the language model that they had. Maybe we're racing to create a little bit bigger and better one and racing to get into the market in the chat GPT moment. And a lot of those deployments were for a time held up by the national government because they said, hey, we don't really have our house in order here.

1:35:52We don't have standards. We don't have a process. This technology is like clearly a big deal, but it's unwieldy. Probably did have a lot of concerns about content safety. We don't want to talk about the three Ts or whatever else. So they, as far as I understand, told the companies, no, you cannot launch yet. We will get our act together. We will have standards. You will then be expected to meet those standards. And then we can launch when we're all good and ready. And we are pretty confident that we at least have a decent sense of what we're doing. So I understand that period went on for six months.

1:36:26and that wasn't at a time obviously when like the stakes of who was winning the ai race were as high as they are now or as high as they're likely to be in the future so i think people could dismiss it if they want to but nevertheless you did have the chinese government slowing down their ai companies preventing release denying the public the utility denying the companies whatever revenue and prestige they were going to get because they wanted to make sure that they had the situation broadly under control. Now, since then, when they did get their act together, it seems that mostly things have gone pretty well and pretty smoothly.

1:37:05As a new entrant to the market, you're going to have a pretty thorough review of your service. You have to give, as I understand it, you have to give your local provincial authority access to your product. I think they're often doing this via just here's an API key, you can try the product. The local government will do its testing first. If they approve, then you go up to the national level and the CAC does their review. If they approve, then you're clear to launch. If they don't approve, then you've got work to do to satisfy them before you can finally launch your product. Once that is done, it's not entirely clear, at least to me, what criteria is used to say we're going to do that full process again it doesn't seem like there's been a lot of delays recently it seems like they've they're now pretty comfortable with their process and the companies know how to do it and from what i understand like their releases have not been delayed nearly as much as they were in that initial period recently yet there are multiple entries from individual companies in the registry so there's like sometimes when it seems to rise to this level where it's like considered a new thing and it's put in the registry as like a separate thing.

1:38:20But then other times it's kind of considered to be like an incremental improvement or not such a big step up in capabilities that a somewhat lesser process is deemed sufficient. And that's kind of opaque to me. I can say that there have been similar things with, for example, Google. I think when they put out their deep research agent, I believe it was something along those lines or some pro mode where it was like just parallelizing essentially their best model and getting it to do whatever 10 times threads and then pick the best something along those lines they didn't do a totally new model card or safety report for it and some of the ai safety community were upset about that but their point of view was like well look it's the same model it's like it's kind of got the same worst case as before it's just that like it should be performing close to its best case more often because you're in fact doing 10 and picking the best or whatever exactly is under the hood.

1:39:16But they were kind of like, it's not fundamentally a totally new level of capability that requires us to do all this stuff again. I think something like that is going on in the ongoing dialogue between the AI companies and the CAC and other regulators in China. What I kind of heard from the companies that I had a chance to talk to about this was like, we're always in touch with the government. It seemed to be at least weekly and potentially for some people at the companies like daily in close contact, close collaboration. I got the sense that the regulators are obviously, as we've just discussed, they're not afraid to impose costs on the company.

1:40:01They're not afraid to do something that will hurt their profitability. They're not afraid to do something that will cause them delays, but they want the companies to be successful is broadly the understanding that I have. So the sort of legitimacy of the regulators, now, would they tell me if they thought the regulators were illegitimate? I did have the one time I talked about last time where a professor found himself kind of caught in a catch-22 thing with respect to having a drone in Beijing. And he was pretty candid about saying that was kind of a ridiculous bit of bureaucracy that he found himself not like majorly inconvenienced by, but inconvenienced by.

1:40:42So there's at least some willingness to say if you think that the government's made a mess of something. I'm not sure that that would extend to companies telling somebody like me that they think the AI regulators are making their life too difficult. The sense that I got was like that the legitimacy of the regulators seemed to be quite well established. that the companies sort of expected and accepted that they were going to be in regular contact with the government and that for these incremental releases, they were kind of in such an ongoing and close dialogue that not everything had to go through some cumbersome process, but occasionally when it was a big deal, then something would.

1:41:25And as far as I could tell, Everybody seemed to be feeling pretty good about that. And again, K3 came out right at WAIC. Models seem to be coming out pretty fast from Chinese companies. Jipu or ZAI, I cross-posted an episode from China Talk with a guy there who leads kind of their go-to-market partnerships, I guess, would be maybe a good way to say it. Definitely worth going back and listening to that one. and it's maybe six to eight months old at this point. One of the things that stood out most to me about it was just how fast they're going from models finishing the training process to release.

1:42:07So it does not seem like they're being dramatically delayed on a consistent basis by the regulators. It seemed like the regulators want to have a good process, want to have command of the situation. Their primary duty is to the national government or the party but part of the way that they impress their bosses is yes like keeping a good clean sheet on safety issues but also having the companies in their jurisdiction be successful and not be unduly delayed i think their incentives are actually like pretty good as far as i can tell in that regard and while they have demonstrated that they're willing to impose costs or even significant delays.

1:42:52It doesn't seem like that's happening on a regular basis. Other things that jumped out at me, the Chinese government is definitely paying attention to trends. Again, a report for this, a lot of this comes from the State of AI Safety in China report from Concordia, but there was a, in January, I think I've maybe already mentioned this, a Politburo study session where she talked specifically about risks of technological loss of control. I mean, imagine our government having a study session where I look at what our cabinet meetings look like. It seems like at least in some of the cabinet level meetings in the Chinese government, they're actually like studying important topics.

1:43:28Like imagine that doesn't mean they're always going to come to the right conclusions, obviously, but boy, we could stand to do a little bit more of our own homework here. Certainly at the executive level, sometimes I feel like in also in January, there was a draft cybercrime law that was set to require AI companies to monitor for and report bulk generation of malicious code. This jumped out at me in preparing this because here we are in this moment where we just had open face and Anthropic has kind of reported similar things. They've got their models like hacking out of sandboxes, hacking into other people's systems.

1:44:06It sure seems like the monitoring on that wasn't great. I don't know that the monitoring is great on the Chinese side either. And I don't think that this as far as i know i don't think that this law has actually gone into effect as dean balt talked about on his last appearance on the podcast there is lobbying in the chinese system there is when these draft laws come out there is the opportunity for the companies to go talk to the government and there have been instances where i think specifically around like the accuracy of outputs from AIs, the original draft was like saying like your AIs have to be accurate.

1:44:44And the companies went back and said like, look, the nature of this technology, it's can't really promise you that all the time. And they backed off. They reduced their expectations because I think they made a, I think they understood what the companies were telling them. And I think they made a considered kind of cost benefit analysis that like the upside of this technology is greater than the damage likely to be caused by hallucinations. That's different, of course, from like sensitive third rail topics, but just like hallucinations can't prevent them. Okay, we get that. They pulled back on that draft law.

1:45:17So we'll see if this cybercrime law goes into effect as drafted or if there's some pushback, but it seems that at least in the initial form that it was put forward, it would require companies to do this sort of monitoring, the sort of monitoring that if it had been applied to the recent open AI and anthropic unreleased, more powerful models might've prevented some of these hacking into third party systems. So I thought that was pretty interesting. And then what was the biggest trend of AI recently? What kind of really took the agent moment mainstream? Open claw, of course. And it wasn't, it was a pretty fast turnaround.

1:45:59February of this year, just weeks after the real kind of open claw fever hit everybody, they had put out some warnings about quote unquote, relatively high security risks in some versions of open claw. So you've got the national government in China paying attention, spotting trends like open claw, digging in and issuing, in that case, just a warning. It's clear that they are very engaged with what is going on. Now, an interesting question that I don't know the answer to is what would happen in China if there were an open face-like incident where a company lost control of its AI, not maybe entirely, obviously, but enough so that it was able to go hack third-party systems for days and steal information or cause whatever havoc it caused.

1:46:51I don't know about that. I don't know how that would be dealt with in China. Again, this is the cyberspace administration of China. My sense is that as the main regulator would probably be their jurisdiction, their mess to clean up, unless perhaps it was deemed to be such a big deal that there was kind of loss of confidence in the CAC itself, in which case you could imagine some kind of bureaucratic reshuffling or reassignment or a change in structure of the government. But I think it would be the CAC that would be kind of in charge. I wouldn't be surprised if saw companies get more of a slap than we've seen.

1:47:34Certainly open AI and Anthropic have had so far, right? I mean, if I guess the careful way to say it is like, if a human did what open AI and Anthropics models have reportedly done, I believe it would be a felony. It doesn't seem like we're going to have, and by the way, Hugging Face did have law enforcement involved before they knew who it was, right? So this was, it did rise to the level of like, authorities were called. What's going to happen? Is there going to be any accountability? Is there going to be any like, I don't necessarily think that there should be like criminal charges filed against like individuals at OpenAI.

1:48:09I'm definitely not recommending that, but what is going to happen? I don't know. It seems like maybe the most likely thing right now is nothing at the governmental level, or at least at the law enforcement level of government. I strongly suspect something more serious would happen in the Chinese system, although obviously I can't prove that. But they're not afraid to come down hard when they feel like things have got out of control. We've seen examples of that with like jack ma who dared to criticize the government's policy with respect to financial regulation in his company and he was kind of sidelined for a while there are some other interesting examples of that where like education businesses were because the chinese system is so competitive for this national exam to get into college and kids still study really hard over there from what I can tell.

1:49:03But it used to be even worse. And the government like said, no more of this sort of extra private tutoring, or at least like a dramatic reduction in it that came pretty suddenly. There's also one with games and social media where like you're only as a kid, you're only allowed to play games at a certain very limited time of the week. I think it's like Friday and Saturday, Sunday for a couple hours each or whatever. Now people did tell me that kids get around that by using their parents' devices and have the parents do the sign-in for them. It's not like they have perfect control over there. But the way one person put it to me was the Chinese government feels that it can put the genie back in the bottle.

1:49:41If something does happen that makes them, that gets them spooked, right? That makes them sufficiently uncomfortable. They are able to take pretty dramatic and swift action to tamp it down. You see this in terms of censorship all the time on the chinese internet there was a there was that little incident where like a small plane crashed into a building in beijing or whatever and apparently that was totally removed from the chinese internet people i was talking to knew about it they were using it as an example of the kind of thing that is censored from the chinese internet because also as i talked about last time like the comfort with contradiction being sort of an interesting part of chinese culture like the people that were talking to me about it were like both kind of annoyed that they had to use their vpns or go to international media to learn about this thing but also felt like it was probably at least defensible that the government wouldn't want everybody to hear about it because they don't want to create panic or whatever anyway they can do these things right and so the the point was like even with an open weights model right they feel like even if an open weights model was released and it proved to be dangerous, they could still keep it under control.

1:50:51Now, I don't think that's an assumption that translates to the rest of the world. I don't think that would translate to the American context. I don't think it would translate to most other governments, frankly. So I think this is one area in which arguably the Chinese government is not thinking as much as they should about their impact on the rest of the world when they release models open weights. And I think that they look at their own situation and especially given, and again, trillions of parameters and like serious hardware required, they feel like even if a model is out there open weights, we can crack down if we need to, right?

1:51:26In close contact with all these companies, we can make them do stuff. We're, we're in close contact with like cloud companies and inference providers and whatever, like we can tell them thou shall not run this particular model anymore. And they feel like they can scrub that off the internet and make it inaccessible. And I would honestly go as far as to say, even for people trying to do it at home, if you were going to try to assemble your own rig in your basement or whatever the case may be, if you were doing any serious volume, if you were trying to run some sort of illicit unreported inference company or something like this, maybe you could do it just for yourself, right?

1:52:04If you're just trying to get your own precious few queries, you could probably slip under their ability to detect. But if you are trying to run some small but non-trivial registered inference business, I would guess that they would even be able to track that down just by your electricity usage. First of all, they've banned crypto, right? So they've done work to look at like, how do we understand the flow of electricity and what might be a problem for us? And then And you got to, you would be shocked, certainly as an American who has like a utility company that kind of sucks and has like, honestly, my utility company is not so bad these days, but like traditionally terrible service, long wait times, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

1:52:53the state grid company in china was like a remarkably prominent presence including at waic where they had a major booth also visited one academic group where they were working on some some robot technology and they had a sort of high voltage line kind of fake environment set up with like obviously not the actual high voltage to it but like the wires and the sort of the normal rigging that you would have for all these wires. They came and helped set this thing up in this one professor's lab space so that this professor could try to get his robots to do things that might eventually be useful for the state grid company.

1:53:40So I think even if you were just to imagine like, okay, this model was released open weights. We think in the West, like, oh, you can never take it. The internet never forgets. The Chinese internet does forget. They would be able to take it down. I think they would be able to track down illicit inference businesses running at any non-trivial scale. That's like, wait a second, why are you using 10 times as much electricity as your neighboring apartment? But I think all of that is a way to understand why, at least for now, the Chinese government isn't so afraid of open weights models, because even if something like this were to happen, as long as it's not totally catastrophic and irrecoverable, they feel like they can, in fact, put the genie back in the bottle.

1:54:26They are getting serious about labor market impact. Here in the West, we have like the Anthropic Institute and the OpenAI Foundation are like hiring economists and whatever to do this kind of stuff. And of course, we've got some academics that are turning their attention to it. And of course, politicians love to talk about it, but usually in a pretty substance free way. As far as I understand, in China, the government is setting up its own monitoring. They're creating retraining and job transition programs. And there was even this one report that said that the Chinese government has said that they won't, you will not be allowed to fire people from your company because like AI has made them unnecessary.

1:55:12That's if they really try to hold to that, that'll be pretty extreme. And my guess is it will be so costly from a like undermining dynamism standpoint. And they really are super dynamic in the private sector as I think is all well, very well understood at this point. My guess is that that they would have a hard time holding that. But again, maybe not, right? Like they did lock down for COVID for a long time, seemingly longer than most observers thought would make sense. And they might be able to hold the line on you can't fire people because they've been made redundant by AI for a lot longer than we might think.

1:55:52And what would that impose in terms of costs on their AI sector? I think pretty significant, right? I mean, if you can't, if as a business, you can't realize cost savings from AI implementation because your headcount has to stay the same, even if you're getting AI to do things that people used to do, well, that definitely reduces your incentive to do that transformation. And that in turn reduces the revenue that the AI companies are going to be able to capture. I would bet that they don't hold a super firm line on that for a long time. But like, this is kind of where the margin is right now in the Chinese context, from what I can tell.

1:56:35They have a history of imposing delays on their LLM companies and their chatbot releases specifically. They are paying attention to things like OpenClaw and releasing guidance around it. They are doing Politbro study sessions. They are doing all the same kinds of research that we are doing. And they're even entertaining policies like you can't fire somebody because they've been made redundant by AI. To conclude the sort of government section, they're definitely doing a lot more in the government sector than the U.S. government is doing. No question about it. Whether that's better or worse obviously depends on your perspective.

1:57:23But if you're an AI safety person or if you're in some debate where somebody says, well, if we do that, we'll cede the race to China. They'll never slow down. They'll never take this stuff seriously. They don't care. I think that's hopefully at this point easily refuted. Two more things to close us out. One, a complaint that many people have with the Chinese companies is that those that signed on in Seoul at one of the AI safety summits to publishing risk frameworks and doing more kind of consistent updating of how their models are performing against these frontier risk frameworks. The complaint is that, Hey, they never followed through.

1:58:08We never actually got those risk frameworks that we were promised. And what's up with that? Like, isn't that just another example of bad faith from the Chinese side where they commit to something and then they don't do it or they, and you do hear this a lot, especially with the, at the government level of people that have done negotiations on various topics with China over time, the, the, there is a certain jadedness or cynicism that has set in where the Western negotiators are like, well, they'll say it, but they may not do it. Now, I think this is like clearly bad. And I wish these companies had done this, especially since they made the commitment.

1:58:49So I'm definitely not here to excuse it. But if I was just going to try to offer what I think the story from the Chinese side would be about like why this has happened or why they maybe don't feel the need to do it in the way that they at one point thought would make sense for them first of all by the way i would just say look no further than anthropic for a company that used to have a much tighter responsible scaling policy that had all these if then commitments that they abandoned because we can't really meet those commitments and we can't stop racing because then we'll just be ceding the future to the bad guys, whether the bad guys are open AI or China, we're going to move to a just trust us regime.

1:59:34We still put that forward as responsible scaling policy, but the old responsible scaling policy is kind of no more. And now it's like, as Zvi put it memorably, now it's trust us. So we've got some of that going on too, right? It's not a direct analogy because we had the policy and they kind of mostly rescinded it or largely rescinded it. In the Chinese case, they committed to making one they never did my guess is that the people at these companies feel that the government is really taking the lead on questions of ai safety the government is the one setting the setting the standards they are the government is doing these checks the government has this model registry the government is they're in communication with the government on a weekly if not daily basis.

2:00:24And as a result, I think they probably in many cases think that it's not really their place to come up with safety standards. Like the division of labor that they seem to have and that they seem to believe is legitimate and that seems to be working well enough for them so far is that's kind of the government's job. And so the companies are not really in a position and it might even be seen as kind of disrespectful or overstepping to put forward a safety framework when the government already has one. And again, I'm not sure that's the full explanation, but I, I, that would be very consistent with everything that I observed and everything that I heard.

2:01:06And I think also that probably a decent kind of summary with a little bit of filling in the blanks about what their expectations will be going forward, the company's expectations, is that the safety standards are going to get tougher. Again, the 45 degree line, the capabilities are definitely growing. And so they're all kind of on the same page society-wide that like, yeah, it's just plain practical that we have got to have safety measures that get better roughly in some kind of vague conceptual sense roughly the same pace that the capabilities themselves advance everybody seems to be bought in on that and the division of labor has kind of settled into this situation where the government is taking the lead and the companies are responsible for hitting that standard i think they expect that that standard is going to rise over time.

2:02:03And I think they're like totally fine with that and like totally prepared to do what is asked to, and it might be difficult and they might face delays and they face delays as we know in the past. So I don't think that they are, I don't think that those safety standards are necessarily less than the Western ones. Although as we talked about at the beginning, the actual deployed safeguards are currently less than, but as we, as we project into the future, and a lot of us, we talk about like, what's the gap right between the West and the Chinese models. And it's like, whatever, nine months, depending on how you want to measure it.

2:02:41And

2:03:10it's obviously hotly debated, that OpenAI and Anthropic are currently dealing with. I think that the standards will probably rise to meet that. And I think I would expect that you would see a significant closing of the gap in terms of the deployed safeguards. Open weights models may be another thing. Again, I think the Chinese government feels like within their borders, at least, they can take an open weights model offline. It's not irreversible for them in the same way that it would be for us. I do think the impact that they may have on the rest of the world is really important. And I'm not sure they're taking that as seriously as I would hope they would, especially when it comes to like bio risk that even could come back, blow back on them.

2:04:00But that's certainly something that we'll need to watch. As of now, though, I think that everybody there kind of feels like we got work to do. the 45 degree line is the right mindset. We're maybe not quite where we need to be, but we also kind of know that the American companies have already explored what happened to this level of capability and it wasn't anything too bad. And it's not like their systems are never jailbroken. And so at least for now, we're more focused on catching up, making sure we hit the standards, but it's not like our place to go out and try to opine publicly and broadly about like what safety standards should be.

2:04:37We're in the business of catching up, hitting the standards, whatever the government says they are, fully expect they're going to get more demanding on us as we go. And that's just the, that's just life in the big leagues of the AI game. My sense is that that's pretty much where the, even like the smaller Chinese AI startups that are doing the least right now, I think that's probably a pretty good summary of where they are and how they're thinking about it. Okay, final thing. And this is maybe the biggest gap or like difference. I went looking for an analog in the Chinese system and I did not find it.

2:05:17If you have an analog, I would love to hear about it because I did look, I asked a number of questions of a number of different people about this topic and never really got much of a response other than like, yeah, I don't really have anything for you. So the topic is, is there such a thing as alignment with Chinese characteristics? If this episode as a whole is AI safety with Chinese characteristics, and we've seen differences, certainly, but a lot of similarities across all these different aspects of AI safety. What about alignment? Is there such a thing as alignment with Chinese characteristics?

2:05:54I was inspired to ask about this in part because I was using one of the Chinese AIs at the Temple of Confucius in Beijing and just trying to learn a little bit about Confucius. Who was he? What's the deal? When did he live? One of the facts that I was taught by the AIs was that to this day in the region that he comes from, his descendants, who are now 79 generations hence, 79 generations, isn't that amazing? What the AI told me was that his descendants still to this day, 79 generations later, still identify as his descendants and perform certain rituals in his honor all this time later. And that got me thinking, boy, if we could project our values through 79 recursively self-improved generations of AIs, we'd be doing really well, right?

2:06:49We'd be doing like much better than I think we can reasonably expect to do if we just race into a recursive self-improvement mediated or generated intelligence explosion. So there's something there with the Confucian tradition that has made values and sort of respect for what came before quite durable. 79 generations. So I was thinking, boy, is there a way that this could translate into a sort of AI constitution or an alignment target? We've got the Claude constitution. Could there be a Confucian constitution for AI? unfortunately for my enthusiasm on this topic nobody seems to be working on that as far as i can tell i didn't i did not get one pointer one professor told me when i asked him about this he said it's an interesting idea but we are probably the generation in all of chinese history that is the weakest on this traditional philosophy.

2:07:59He said, you got to remember, we're all engineers. The humanities, that's not where people were going, right? I mean, the Chinese leadership at the political level is all engineers. I believe Xi himself was a chemical engineer. He said, we're all engineers. None of us really studied philosophy. None of us are schooled in the Confucian tradition in the way that previous generations were. and it's just not really in our wheelhouse to think that way. We're really practical. We look at problems as they present themselves and we try to find solutions and we do care about making sure that AI is good for people, but there's not really a lot of that kind of thought going on.

2:08:45So this, I think, is a really interesting opportunity still. But for now, the AI safety community in China is much more on the open AI side of the corrigibility versus character debate. They're about having clear rules, having the AI follow those rules, trying to make that as reliable and consistent as possible. I did not find, I would love to hear about if you know of any, but I'd not find much in the way of imagining what it would look like for an AI to grow into a wisdom tradition that they have that that an AI might be able to to embody or realize or bring to its highest potential form in the way that the Claude Constitution seems to imagine Claude growing into the greatest virtue ethicist of all time.

2:09:38just couldn't find anything like that in China. So I would be really interested to know if you have any pointers. And I think maybe that's something that people should work on, even in the West or across. Obviously, there's many Chinese and Chinese-American people here that would have a much more credible angle on it than I do. But I do feel like there's something missing there that could be a pretty interesting opportunity. If we imagine that a future is, but a good future might be made up of like multiple powerful AIs that are in some sort of ecological style balance with one another, then having different wisdom traditions to base them on, to me, seems like quite a good idea.

2:10:26And right now, as far as I can tell, that is pretty much greenfield okay that does it for today i would welcome your feedback your commentary your critical commentary your pointers to anything that i have missed but if nothing else hopefully this serves to give you all the ammo you need to push back whenever people say china doesn't care china will never slow things down china's not going to stop their companies is I think that the truth is quite the opposite, that they do clearly care, that their research community is very much engaged, that their product companies still have some work to do, but that their government is pretty well on the ball.

2:11:08And I think they're trending in the right direction, even though, and we can say the same for ourselves, there's a lot of work left to do. So part three will come as soon as I can get it ready for you. That's going to be focused on the U.S.-China relationship and what, if anything, we might do to make it better and to start to work together on some of these AI issues. Probably allow myself to be, this one is a little bit more just kind of fact-based reporting. That one, I'll probably allow myself to be a little bit more of an idealist dreamer. So stay tuned for that coming soon. But for now, this has been AI safety with Chinese characteristics.

2:11:46And I thank you for being part of the Cognitive Revolution. They have the technique now, master. Then teach them the discipline.

2:12:19A man of wisdom adapts to the changes A man of knowledge acts by the circumstances Ancient ink in the modern cages Same blades sharpened across the ages Staggering speed and the tempo won't hold Digital world to the physical code Off of the glass and out into the street Stealing the doorway Servos in the feet secure and controllable That's the doctrine Trust a tool for humanity What's the option? Oversight precise and governance effective Early warning wired through the whole collective Laws, regulation Monitoring response, 36 chambers And I want them all at once Rare and historic, and the window is a blade Rip it by the handle or you bleed on the trade No final chamber, no final door Staggering speed, ain't been here before Secure and controllable Hand on the blade No final chamber, the last one ain't made Yo, not a solo performance by a single nation.

2:13:17Symphony, every section in formation. Just and equitable global governance. True multilateralism, that's the covenant. United Nations playing an important role. Global South capacity, bridge the whole. Close the digital divide, leave nobody behind. Open source, openness, collaborate, combine. Shape the values with humanity's common values. Diversity of civilizations, don't lose it. Understand it, tolerance exchange between peoples. Every temple different and every ceiling equal. Delegates nodding all the way down the hall Board is setting, don't nobody move at all Everybody hear what the clock is doing Nobody wanna be the one accused of moving Master, the machine has surpassed the student Then who now is the master?

2:14:04Then who now is the master?

2:14:10Constantly refine the measures Hold the fold, four-star, four-star, a loss of control Nobody builds a warning for a quiet room You build it for the footsteps coming through 45 degrees, that's the angle of the vow One line power and one line how Tied them at the rung every step of the climb Diverge and we're out of road and out of time Converge and maybe more than come around Ancient courtyard, 79 in the ground Grandfather swept that stone every spring Name still spoken, it's still the same thing Hand it down the line or the line go cold trusted tool human hand human hold sees the rare historic the window then no final chamber so you never stop training in no final chamber no final door staggering speed ain't been here before secure and controllable hand on the glass no final chamber the last one ain't me no final chamber No final door.

2:15:12Staggering speed. Staggering speed. Ain't been here before. Secure and controllable. Hand on the blade. No final chamber. The last one ain't me. Me, me, me.

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