Jellycat Deep Dive, Atlassian Share Price Crash, Kings Counsel Ransom, Writers Festival Monstrosity, SXSW Sydney Dies and Adam’s Passport Bliss

19 Jan 2026 · 1 h 22 min · 24 chapters

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In short

Adam and Adir discuss: (1) Adir’s rod-removal surgery and what it reveals about private hospital efficiency and nurse shortages; (2) a smoother Australian passport renewal process; (3) the termination of South by Southwest Sydney and whether NSW taxpayers got value; (4) tech-market commentary including Nvidia’s “Vera Rubin” chip and OpenAI leadership signals; (5) Atlassian’s share-price collapse; (6) rising government-paid senior counsel rates; (7) fallout from the Adelaide Writers Week implosion and claims of dysfunction, censorship, and political pressure.

Guests

Jessie Wu (VC and entrepreneur). She’s followed SXSW closely, argues the event is corporatized/marketing-heavy, disputes attendance figures, and says scheduling and pricing exclude builders. She also pitches a “firebrand retainer” concept via her firm Encore.

Key claims

Private equity–leveraged hospitals can look efficient pre-op but fail post-op (40-minute bell response). Passport renewal is now more efficient (one-page form). SXSW Sydney cost at least $12m taxpayer funds and may be value-destructive; Penske Media’s ownership changed culture. Atlassian’s valuation is unjustified because it “doesn’t make money” and SaaS isn’t dead. Government legal rates are too low (cap $5k/day) risking second-tier counsel. Writers Week cancellation was framed as a humanity/freedom-of-expression dispute, not identity.

Notable examples

Healthscope hospital; SXSW Sydney attendance/economic-impact numbers; Nvidia “Vera Rubin”; OpenAI return of Barrett Zoff; Atlassian down ~28% in a month; Kings Counsel cap to $5,000/day; Adelaide Writers Week cancellation after 180 withdrawals.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Adir's Hospital Experience

0:45 to 5:32

Adir shares his recent hospital experience, discussing efficiency and issues in healthcare.

“Big thanks to David Slattery, my excellent surgeon, who did a great job.”

Passport Renewal Process

5:32 to 9:00

Adir shares positive changes in the passport renewal process, highlighting efficiency improvements.

“If you're deciding in a public system what's elective, what's essential.”

South by Southwest Sydney Termination

9:00 to 14:00

Discussion on the termination of South by Southwest Sydney and its impact on the local community.

“You talked about how expensive passports are, and that's such a revenue-raising thing, but at least it's an efficient process.”

Future of AI and Australia's Role

14:00 to 14:46

Discussing the importance of understanding AI advancements for Australia's future.

“And I do think it is just like a way of looking into the future, like looking half a year, a year into the future.”

Reflections on South by Southwest

14:46 to 15:32

Sharing experiences and critiques of the South by Southwest event.

“Which has no claim over any part of the AI supply chain.”

Agency Costs and Event Motivation

15:32 to 17:20

Examining the motivations behind large events and their funding.

“We kept our entire audience probably on the basis of Lucy and Ed.”

Perception of the Tech Sector

17:20 to 18:08

Discussing public perceptions of the tech industry and its implications.

“We in the tech sector, we're not the most modest human beings on planet Earth, okay?”

Jesse's Firebrand Approach

18:08 to 19:35

Jesse shares insights on branding and public engagement strategies.

“Jesse, thanks for jumping on a Saturday afternoon in San Fran.”

Personal Experience at South by Southwest

19:35 to 21:01

Recounting a personal experience at South by Southwest a decade ago.

“So I forgot to tell you a very relevant story about South by Southwest.”

The Challenge of Importing Events

21:01 to 22:20

Discussing the difficulties of replicating successful events like South by Southwest in Australia.

“It basically made Austin too expensive to be a city for startups.”
Show all 24 chapters

Upcoming Topics Teaser

22:20 to 22:56

Preparing to discuss various topics in the next segment.

“when she says like Blackbird does Sunrise, 1013 does their conference up in prison, which I think we should go and do next year, by the way.”

Nvidia: Bull and Bear Cases

22:56 to 24:59

Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of Nvidia's latest developments.

“I do, you had some stuff you want to talk about?”

OpenAI's Challenges and Signals

24:59 to 28:00

Discussing signals of trouble for OpenAI and the implications for the tech industry.

“But I think this may well have at least delayed that from occurring.”

Atlassian's Share Price Crisis

28:00 to 37:20

Discover the factors behind Atlassian's significant share price drop and its implications for the tech industry.

“Speaking of negative signals, have you seen a company that's had a pretty tough week?”

Government Payment Rates for Senior Counsel

37:20 to 41:46

Explore the recent increase in the daily rates for senior counsel working with the government and its implications.

“I wonder if you know this, if you saw this in the media.”

Fallout from Adelaide Writers Week

41:46 to 42:01

Learn about the controversies surrounding the cancellation of the Adelaide Writers Week and its impact on free expression.

“We talked about it last week, but the fallout from the implosion of the Adelaide Writers Week has certainly continued.”

Writers Festival Controversy and Free Speech Debate

42:01 to 56:00

Discusses the cancellation of the Writers Festival and the implications for free speech.

“into her management into the axed event.”

Setting the Stage for Literature and Arts

56:00 to 56:44

They discuss the need to shift literature and arts away from identity politics.

“Mostly it's not going to happen realistically.”

Central Banks and Economic Independence

56:54 to 1:02:14

A deep dive into the political pressures on central banks like the RBA and Fed.

“However, central bank insiders are wary that the possibility of partisan appointments and rising government debts could pose a risk to the central bank's independence.”

The Role of Conflicted Economists

1:02:14 to 1:04:31

Debating the ethics and qualifications of those appointed to economic boards.

“headed in and I'm not quite sure what the solution to that is.”

The Success of Jellycat and Market Dynamics

1:04:31 to 1:10:01

Analyzing Jellycat's financials, market presence, and social media backlash.

“is going to end up being motivated predominantly by self-interest, I think it really underestimates how many ethical people there are in the world that would be prepared to do the right thing.”

Jellycat's Business Model and Margins

1:10:01 to 1:13:26

Explore Jellycat's revenue, cost structure, and profitability insights.

“to receive non-personalized letters informing that Jellycat had dropped them.”

Sustainability of Jellycat's Success

1:13:27 to 1:17:08

Discuss the sustainability of Jellycat's brand and its market position.

“but when your average order is only$100, like you don't have much money to play with on the acquisition side.”

Jellycat's Unique Positioning in the Market

1:17:09 to 1:21:03

Analyze Jellycat's market longevity and potential for growth.

“I think it's just an enormous amount of brand.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00And so what I've learned is this, when I'm agreeing with you, I just have to let you keep talking. And then I'm Adam Schwab. I'm Adir Shiffman. And this is The Contrarians with Adam and Adir.

0:16And we are back, episode 169. Adir, welcome. Hello. You're traveling around? Yeah, I'm traveling around. Everyone's traveling around. It's January. Isn't that what people do in January? I'm trying to hunt down the worst weather in Australia. That's my main focus, it seems. Well, I'm in Melbourne. It's magnificent down here. It's actually been a bit on the hot side. I know. It's going to heat up during the week. It is. But I recently had, as you know, my rod removed a couple of days ago. So how did that go? It went pretty well, actually. Big thanks to David Slattery, my excellent surgeon, who did a great job.

0:49But yeah, no, it's certainly a lot better. Obviously, there's a bit around the wound where they went in. It's a little bit sore. but around where the leg broke, I don't notice it at all. So fingers crossed. It's so far so good. You don't seem like you're dying of pain at the moment, which is good, right? Are you on like a lot of analgesia? You seem like clear thinking and not in a lot of pain, which seems like a good sign. I actually don't think I took any painkillers at all after this one. I've had the anti-inflammatories, a couple of those. But I just wanted to talk about the hospital. Which hospital group do you reckon I was at?

1:21One that's somewhat topical for the business world. Oh, like a HealthScope hospital? I was at a HealthScope hospital. So I'll give you my quick review on HealthScope. Obviously bought by Brookfield about, was it three years ago they bought it? And is now in effectively administration, I think. They effectively couldn't pay the interest on it. So the process, I got there at 6.30. It was an incredible process, like before the operation. So it was like literally went from one to the next, to the next, to the next. The nurses were amazing. it was it was super like i couldn't have imagined a more efficient process before the operation and then obviously after the operation was good and then sort of obviously you stick i had to stick around a bit longer because my my wound was sort of bleeding a bit that's where things kind of fell off the rails a bit i had obviously the nurses changed i had this amazing nurse who was i think only been in australia three months from india she was literally running around eight hours straight so this nurse was brilliant so no absolutely no criticism of her but she had the most absurd workload of anyone I've ever seen.

2:19She literally was over, like there should have been four people doing what she was doing. At one point I rang just this more, this wasn't urgent obviously, but I rang the bell just to get sort of a discharge thing and it took 40 minutes for someone to come. Like someone could have died in that time. Like it's, it's, these places are just, this just shows when private equity buys assets like this and they lever it up with debt and they try and make it more efficient. And we saw on pre-op it worked really well, but post-op this was a disaster. Obviously, it didn't matter for me. I wasn't in like, my life wasn't in danger.

2:51But to not come when somebody rings a bell for 40 minutes is catastrophic in a hospital. Not to look around on your criticism of this, which is probably completely valid. The other reason could be it is very hard to get nurses in Australia. Like there's a shortage of nurses. Mostly, well, not mostly, but many of them work through agencies so that they are not employed directly by the hospitals because it's just a way to, I mean, it just increases healthcare costs. You might argue it gets nurses paid what they should be paid. But if they are permanent full-time employees through the hospital, they get paid significantly less than being agencyed out to different hospitals at different times.

3:28So there is a nursing issue that's going on in Australia as well. Well, I'm not sure that's an excuse that we're not, we can't afford to pay nurses. So we're going to have people dying in the bed because nobody can come to a bell. Like, I'm not sure that. Well, it's pretty unlikely though. I hear what you're saying, but you know, there are medical procedures and types of patients that are high risk of let's even say death but some very serious event and they wouldn't have considered you to be in that group you're just in recovery after post-op sure sure and so I think that if you were you know if you're on a cardiac ward you wouldn't have you firstly you'd be hooked up to machines so you wouldn't have to press a buzzer if your heart stops believe me there'll be 10 people that come running on a code blue Look, I'm not diminishing it, but we do have certain expectations, like in the health system, especially if you're paying private.

4:12And I think these hospitals, the private ones, like I said, the privately owned ones, they do struggle to find the balance between making money and delivering the level of healthcare that you might expect as a private patient. I think it's a great example of what happens when you, like we're all in favour of privatisations, but there's some things that maybe shouldn't be privatised by certain people. And I think this is a great example and this is what's happened. Just be grateful that you could have private insurance because if you're in the public system, your experience would be vastly worse than this.

4:42I mean, you would have been probably waiting a significant amount more time to have this rod out of your leg. I still strongly suggest that people go and get private health insurance, a private system for stuff like this, which you would say this is not elective. Well, till then, it was a great experience. I was like, it was an amazing check-in experience and the doctors did a great job and the nurses initially did a great job. So I'm not criticizing that at all. It's more the post. Again, it was fine for me, but who knows what would happen if you ring a bell and nobody comes. I'm surprised your lack of concern about that.

5:13I know. Maybe because when people have been on the inside of something, then their view is different on the outside. Not necessarily a fairer view, just a different view, right? Because they can see why there are problems on the inside. That's why I say to you, I think this surgery, this was considered non-essential surgery. If you're deciding in a public system what's elective, what's essential. And so you might have been waiting approximately forever to have this in the public system. That to me is the bigger problem that's going on here. And, you know, we spoke about this private public stuff last time.

5:46I'm not diminishing the fact that you have to wait 40 minutes for a bell call. I don't care about me. It didn't bother me, but I'm telling you it could bother somebody who actually does need somebody to come urgently. An older person that had this done, and let's say they had a history of cardiac problems, for example they're not going to wait 40 minutes after a bell is rung like I think one of the things that hospitals and the health system does better than almost any other organization is the unashamed prioritization of customers let's call them I call them patients I don't really but I'm just to compare them to other businesses you know businesses have got a lot of problems prioritizing even airlines in Australia really they do not love the idea of stopping some customers boarding to let customers that have paid more board.

6:29Like Virgin hates doing that, right? Usually when I get on Virgin, there are more people in the priority queue than in the regular queue. It's actually faster for me sometimes to go in the regular queue when like if I turn up after the priority queue started boarding. But hospitals, because of the nature of healthcare, are very, very good at triage and prioritization of which patients need to be treated. And so you might have been on the wrong end of that, I suspect, as a pretty healthy person. Do you want to hear my good story idea? Even more bizarrely, good story about the Australian public service.

6:56This is a rarity. So have you had a new – have you had a passport renewed recently? Not very recently. So I need to get my passport renewed. And you remember how in the old system you have to – you just have to print out or get that big form. And if there's any mistake – it was this massive form, five-page form. And if you went like – if you used the wrong color pen or you went slightly outside the box, then make you take it back and do it all again. It was this whole bloody thing. They've now actually fixed it whereby you just have to print out this one page and sign it. Like, I can't believe that the government actually did something that improves efficiency.

7:27I was floored by this. This was such a better way to do it. And I went to the post office and post office, there's always post office, there's one in South Melbourne, it was super busy, there's people everywhere. And the post office, the people were lovely, they took my photo, they did it. It was just an unbelievably good experience. I was flabbergasted how good this was. Why do you think that happened? Like, what would you think was the driver of that change? I'm at a loss. I cannot work it out because this was just such a great experience that like a great experience for the private sector, let alone the public sector, it was that good.

7:58Because usually if something like this happens, it'll be one of two things. Either it saves a massive amount of money, but it would be expensive to deploy. But the thing that's more surprising is that how has something really positive happened that affects large numbers of people in the bureaucracy and no politician has jumped up and down taking credit for us? That is the most astonishing thing about this. Maybe we just missed it. Maybe this was a whole big thing and some politician took credit for it and we just didn't see it. Yeah, I'm not sure if it's even – is it Home Affairs? I'm not sure what it actually falls under, but credit to whoever did this.

8:31But that doesn't – just because it doesn't fall under you as a politician doesn't mean you won't try and take credit for it. True. You don't have to be – that is a very limited way of thinking. It's why you're not in politics. Just because a disaster happens in your area does not mean it's your fault and just because something great happens elsewhere does not mean that's not your doing. Whoever did it, claims and responsibility, because this was a really great sort of thing. I'm shocked how efficient and easy it was, given how... I used to have to go back two or three times, I reckon, to get a passport done.

8:59It was just a nightmare. Obviously, we talked about... You talked about how expensive passports are, and that's such a revenue-raising thing, but at least it's an efficient process. It doesn't take four days. Well, it's crazy how expensive they are. It's actually insane. And moving on, and two years before its government-funded multi-million dollar deal was said to expire, South by Southwest Sydney, which was Australia's much maligned version of, of course, South by Southwest Austin, has been terminated. The event organisers released a statement saying, to the tens of thousands of you who filled the halls of ICC Sydney, Darling Harbour and surrounds, thank you for being part of the South by Southwest Sydney journey.

9:33The statement also highlighted the total attendance of more than 345 ,000 at the 2025 event, which he said was a 15 % year-on-year increase, albeit figures applied to the Sydney Morning Herald put the number of unique visitors in 2024 at 92 ,000, an increase of 97 ,000 on the prior year. South by Southwest Sydney's Feral Message also claimed it had a three-year cumulative economic impact of$276 million, albeit that number appears to be somewhat fictional. What wasn't fiction though is the minimum$12 million taxpayer monies that were paid to secure the controversial event with additional millions also believed to be paid in further in-kind support.

10:12And we're really grateful to have a special guest on the show. We love our guests, Adia. And VC and entrepreneur, Jessie Wu, who has been all over South by Southwest for years, has joined the show. Jessie, you've been following this story really closely. Have New South Wales taxpayers got their money's worth with three years of South by Southwest? I mean, I presume the money was meant to drive tourism, but also to foster the local innovation community and make Sydney an activated and vibrant city. And I would say that the way that South by Southwest orientated and the way they tried to extract value from the Sydney community means that not only did we not get the money's worth, I think it was possibly value destructive in terms of the way it took away from other events and sidelined things that had been happening for many years, such as Sunrise.

11:03Can I tell you some things about South by Southwest and South by Southwest in particular? Firstly, I would like to dispute their 325 ,000 participant number. That would make that bigger than Austin, the Austin event. And so I don't know if they're clipping how many people turn up every time somebody walks in and out of the toilet or something and they're counting those people. But 325 seems crazy. And the thing about South by Southwest is it is not the same as it was pre-COVID. I don't know if you know what's happened. Do you know who owns this, Adam? Someone called Penske Media. I don't know, it's something from Seinfeld?

11:35Oh, no, I'm shocked that you don't know who this is. So, you know, there was a guy, Roger Penske. He was a NASCAR driver. The Penske file from Seinfeld. Yeah, that's why he says from Seinfeld. So, he was a race car driver. Then he started a team and he has the most successful Indy team. And now he also owns the Indianapolis Racetrack and Indy, like the thing Indy. So, he's a huge winner, okay? And he's got some sons and one of his sons is also a winner. Maybe the other one is as well. and he's I think he's he's got another business Penske my guess is it's probably the biggest events company in the US and in 2020 like South by Southwest was running for I don't know it's like 40 years old or something it's been running for decades in 2020 COVID killed it for reasons that I don't want to get you worked up about but had something to do with not being able to be in person and so they were basically broke and this Penske dude comes along and says I'll buy this thing save it saves it and in the last five years basically there's been management turnover and so all the original people running south by southwest for 30 something years are gone or most of the management and it's been turned into a corporate entity and not only do i think it's finito in sydney i mean appropriately finished but i'm not sure it's very difficult for something that starts off as a small grassroots movement to maintain its integrity and its culture as it gets bigger it's hard enough let alone when it's bought by like an industrialist a capitalist to to make it even bigger so I have a feeling that maybe there's going to be the end of South by Southwest as we know it more broadly and this is just like what it's I think there's a South by Southwest London now that they've started as well so I think this whole thing is pretty dumb if you ask me and like it's just corporatized.

13:22I think I'm basically cynical about everything now, but in a loving kind of way. So I think that, so I love the 1013s conference and I love Sunrise, but we have to, but all of these things when you think first and foremost are ways that businesses are promoting their brand. It's no different to zero con, but that doesn't mean they can't do great things. Like they can also do great things for the community because they're part of it. What do you think the main benefit is when someone comes out of that caliber and speaks to the group? Like, What are you hoping the impact would be on people in that room or on Australia more broadly?

13:54Why do you like that? Yeah, well, I mean, I'm in San Francisco at the moment. I'm dialing in from Bernal Heights in SF. And I've been here for the whole month. And I do think it is just like a way of looking into the future, like looking half a year, a year into the future. Timelines are accelerating, which means that even being able to see a few months into the future is really, really helpful because there are people at these frontier labs who are having conversations about AI takeoff, about the pace of the improvement of this tech, where if you're a little bit ahead, then you can orient your business towards that.

14:24I think Australia as a middle power, I really worry that we are sleepwalking into irrelevance and oblivion by not being able to figure out how we can make, you know, ascendance of this advanced technology go well for Australians and how we as a middle power can maybe use the leverage that we have in this current moment to make it go well for the world and to not kind of, you know, become a poor nation, right? Which has no claim over any part of the AI supply chain. I think just on South by Southwest, having been there, I was only the first year. I found it completely soulless. It felt much more marketing and nothing against marketing.

15:02A lot of our great mates are in marketing, but felt much more marketing than it was tech. I felt like a big marketing sort of circle jerk than anything tech related. And I never went back again after that. We did a panel. I did a great panel actually with Ed and Lucy Liu from Air Wallachs, and Ed did an amazing job, Ed Cowan from TDM. And we had a great crowd for our panel. But what I was told was that the way they scheduled it so badly was that they were sort of overlapping sessions. So people would be halfway through a session and people just would exit on that. So you'd be speaking to an empty room.

15:31Fortunately, that didn't happen to us. We kept our entire audience probably on the basis of Lucy and Ed. The whole thing was just completely ridiculous. The people that are actually building, those people can't afford to go to$1 ,500 events. You know I pitch you every time, Adam. I pitch you off air, but your dental disposition is just to ignore what I say. But I pitch you all the time. Contrarians con, we should do our own version of this with only the best people. We'll get$12 million from Destination New South Wales and be away. That's true. I would do it for$10 million. We've got no vested interest because we've got nothing to push because it's just a podcast.

16:07So I think that in all seriousness, like I say that somewhat flippantly, but just to be clear, I do not say that flippantly. I think one key challenge is you look at what this event is trying to achieve. You love agency costs. You love talking about agency costs, right? And so you say, what are the agency costs that are going on here? You've got an event run by the biggest event business in the US, and they predominantly just want to make money. So that's fine. I like capitalism, but we know what their motivation is. They want to make money. And then you've got a New South Wales government. government and so what's their motivation?

16:38Elected, they want to be elected and so maybe you say secondarily it would be good to drive the economy in New South Wales. Yeah, I agree secondarily that would be interesting to a government but primarily they want to get re-elected. I think there's no advantage in getting re-elected with South by Southwest so that is no longer going to be very interesting to the government. I'm shocked that they didn't take the 12 million dollars for another two years. That means they would have had to be losing more than 12 million dollars. I presume it It was maybe the government said no more. It's possible that they were sort of cut off as well, I suspect.

17:08Yeah, that's more likely because like why would you – like if you're the New South Wales government, like why would you spend 12 mil on this? Well, that's gone. I think there's ongoing costs though. So that's what they wanted to try and stop. But maybe I'm wrong about saying this and I'm, again, too cynical about it. We in the tech sector, we're not the most modest human beings on planet Earth, okay? I think the general population looks at the tech sector and does not have necessarily positive feelings towards the tech sector, especially now everyone's terrified that AI is taking their jobs because of all the media hype.

17:35And so what I really worry about is we can say like the Tech Council, they haven't had a massive impact in shifting perceptions of the tech industry, let's maybe say that. Well, not positively. I think they haven't had really any impact shifting the perceptions. Like whatever people thought about tech people, that's what they keep thinking about tech people. And so you have a government and the government is cozying up to tech. I don't think that's a great look for a government anymore in a Western developed country. And so I think the government wants to distance themselves from our industry.

18:06That's my honest concern. That's a good point. We'll just move on. Jesse, thanks for jumping on a Saturday afternoon in San Fran. Well done on everything you're doing. Why don't you just quickly tell us about Encore really briefly before you jump off? One of the things that this South by Southwest idea actually gave me is because I've become kind of a bit of a firebrand against South by Southwest, when we got the email, I think on Tuesday afternoon that it was discontinuing. I had like 10 different people message me being like, congrats on killing South by Southwest. And I like four different media outlets reach out for comment, including, you know, the ABC and Sydney Money Herald.

18:43And I was like, these are the kind of outcomes I try to achieve for my clients, right? You know, to be efficiently mentally available such that you're the person when something of interest in your industry happens. And I think that you do it by being a bit of a firebrand, by like being willing to take a position on things that, you know, resonates with people, but that is also spiky and contrarian and that sticks in people's minds. And certainly that not everyone's going to agree with. It gave me an idea to create perhaps a product like a firebrand retainer where we work with people who like want to become the face of a cause that they really care about and hopefully one that I care about as well.

19:23And we develop a kind of campaign that is about achieving that thing. Thanks, Jess, for jumping on, Sam Fran. Really appreciate your views and grats on the success with South by Southwest. Cheers. Thanks, guys. Bye. So I forgot to tell you a very relevant story about South by Southwest. I can't believe we went through a whole conversation about this and I didn't say this. In 20, I think 10 years ago, I was invited to speak at South by Southwest in Austin. They had a sports tech thing that they were doing. And so I went there to a panel. I spoke on this panel. I'd never been to Austin before. I'd never been to South by Southwest before.

19:58I got all these crazy invitations as a speaker. Like I went to, you know, L.O. Black, that singer L.O. Black. I mean, I'm not going to tell you all of his stuff, but he did something with Avicii, right? So he was pretty big. He had this private concert with all this food and alcohol for maybe 200 people, got invited to that. What? This is what South by Southwest was, right? There was a, someone had done this thing where they set up a Mario Kart track in real life that looked amazing that you could zoom around in go-karts. It was huge. It really was this incredible event. I think Cuban was there the year that I went there as well.

20:33It was just this amazing event that was really fun. I didn't exactly understand the point of it, but it was so fun and absolutely packed and the vibe was incredible. And it took over the whole of Austin. And I think I remember reading at the time that some bars in Austin do 50 % of their revenue during South by Southwest. And so I don't know how you can compete with that inorganically. You go and say, well, we want to do that thing. It grew organically over 30 years in the US. It's in Austin. It put Austin on the map. It basically made Austin too expensive to be a city for startups. And look, we're just going to try and replicate that at the ICC in Sydney with 350 ,000 corporates, which was not 350 ,000, right?

21:12Yeah. Well, more like 5 ,000 corporates, but yeah. Yeah. You know what I mean? Look, it's just crazy. Do you remember which business really got its start in South by Southwest in terms of, I don't mean like as in promoting itself at the conference, but I mean as part of the conference, famously. One of the biggest ever startups ever. Well, I'm telling a few that did. So, you know, a lot of location-based startups got their start at South by Southwest. Are you thinking like Foursquare? Foursquare, yeah. I'm not talking about business that actually succeeded. Okay, but like they have these waves, right, of things that do it.

21:41Uber, was that one that's got a kickoff at South by Southwest? I think Uber was there, but I'm thinking of a different one, but it was very Uber-like. Lyft? Airbnb. Airbnb, remember, it did it at San Fran. It did the thing in San Fran, then it did the famous thing in Austin. And it's really where it got started. So, yeah, I think you're right. Like, I think trying to inorganically build these conferences doesn't work. You've got to build it from the ground up. And this was just a disaster for everything. Why do we need, like, this country has got enough great stuff happening here that we do not need to go and import stuff from overseas.

22:17We could do a conference, an Australian conference in Australia. I mean, Jesse's right. when she says like Blackbird does Sunrise, 1013 does their conference up in prison, which I think we should go and do next year, by the way. We should do a podcast up there next year. And so I never get invited to this Sunrise. Why do I never get invited to Sunrise? I don't know. I like Mickey and Rick so much, but they never invite me to their stuff. So I think there is enough great stuff in Australia at the maybe what you'd say grassroots level that we don't have to import this type of stuff into Australia.

22:45Yeah, we'll go to a super quick break, back with lots more stories after this.

22:55And we're back. I do, you had some stuff you want to talk about? Do I? What the hell are we talking about? Oh, just general? Yeah. All right, no, I've got stuff. I've got stuff. This is the absolute pinnacle of professionalism. No, we had this whole, I said, I've got some interesting stuff. I feel like we'll talk about this and this and this. I was preparing to talk about this and this and this. Then all of a sudden I'm standing in front of 5 ,000, 50 ,000 people with my pants down. Oh, I was going to throw to your interesting stuff. No, it's all right. All right. I've got some good stuff. Number one, number one, first cab off the rank.

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23:30You've got to – this is just a very minor point. I'll give you something, a bull case for something and a bear case for something, okay? So you tell me if it's on your run sheet. I will have to put that caveat in, okay? Bull case, Nvidia. You got that on your run sheet? No. They released a new chip called Vera Rubin. It's named after, unsurprisingly, Vera Rubin. You can Google who she is in your own time. But she's very impressive. So this chip is the next level up, so the next generation. But as we correctly predicted and spoke about in our little conversation about AI a couple of months ago, whenever it was, the big pitch of this chip, amongst other things, is that it's one-tenth the price for performing inference, i.e.

24:14running the models, i.e. answering your questions, i.e. competing with Google's TPUs. So that is without, and so I think that is somewhat of a bull case for NVIDIA because one of the worries is that there'll be less demand as more simple, more appropriate chips for inference became available. But I think that NVIDIA is very much still in the game and is just incredible at adapting to market dynamics. I think the question everyone's on, is NVIDIA a great company with great process power? I think the question was with the CapEx spending by all these hyperscalers, will that come off to the point where NVIDIA starts seeing revenues decline?

24:52Yeah. That's always been the question. I don't think anybody questions its ability as a business. But I thought one of the ways that it would come off the boil would be demand would diminish as things shifted more and more to inference and running the models. But I think this may well have at least delayed that from occurring. So that feels like a bull. I'm not saying it's a buy, but it feels like a bull signal for the business. Now I'll tell you a bear signal for the business. So what was the name of that AI company that kind of spun out of OpenAI where the people left and they set up their own company and they got like a gazillion dollar valuation?

25:24Thinking machines. Yeah, yeah, whatever that business. So it was Mira, I forget her surname, a few other people that left OpenAI with her, one of which is called Barrett Zoff. So Barrett Zoff is, I don't want to say any puns of what Zoff could sound like. He left and a minute later reappeared at none other than OpenAI. He's back. And so there was all this information released by thinking machines about inappropriate behavior that he had conducted and just performance issues and who knows which story is right. But that is not what I think the bare signal for OpenAI is, as if we needed another bare signal.

26:04The bare signal is this. the person who recruited Barrett Zoff back to OpenAI is called Fiji Simo. That's not the bare signal, but Fiji Simo's title. It's the CFO, isn't it, or something like that? Well, the bare signal is Fiji Simo's title. So Fiji Simo is responsible for, it looks like, from the second part of his title, I assume it's a he, I don't know, getting people back to open AI. So the second part of his title is applications. So he's like, you might think you'd be called the general manager for applications or recruitment or the head of applications, but that's not what Fiji Simo is called.

26:47What's Fiji Simo called? The CEO for applications. The CEO for applications. When I read that, I say, last person, turn out the lights. Like if you are going down that road where you have to start dishing out the CEO for this CEO for that titles. I don't know. It just feels like a massive bear signal of hype. It's just more of the hype cycle. I don't know. So, Mike, you're going to be called the CEO of production for this podcast. You'll be happy to know. Put that on your LinkedIn. No pay rise, unfortunately. I have checked Fiji Simo's Wikipedia page. She is a woman because you were saying you weren't sure if she's a man or a woman.

27:25So, Fiji Simo is a woman. Yes. Well, thank you for clarifying that. In no way does that diminish, apart from making me feel a bit dumb, in no way does that diminish the negative signal of Fiji being called the CEO for applications. If Fiji was a Martian of no gender and not even of the human species and was called the CEO for applications, I would feel exactly the same way about this being a negative signal for the business. So I can't feel any more negatively about OpenAI than I do, but this reinforces to me the fact that I'm not sure what in the hell is going on in that business personally. Speaking of negative signals, have you seen a company that's had a pretty tough week?

28:03What do you reckon I'm talking, who do you think I'm talking about? A company with a tough week. From a share price perspective or a tough month I should say. Australian business. Well Australian business but not necessarily listed in Australia. Oh well Atlassian would be my guess if you give me those clues. Atlassian, my favourite bete noir what do you reckon at share price has done over the last 30 days oh god every time you talk about atlassian but there's like linkedin goes offline because of the number of people that post hate in your direction on the basis of a misunderstanding you're criticizing the founders and their contribution to tech or the the fact that they've built this great company so anyway let's get the hate mail out of the way even now i think i think even that's sort of stopped uh so Atlassian.

28:47You think that's diminished? It's certainly. I used to cop it like three or four years ago, but now I think that was when the share price was$100 billion. Now it's a measly$32 billion. It's down 28 % this month. Let's encourage people to reinvigorate the hate towards Adolfo LinkedIn around Atlassian. Because you and Novak Djokovic have basically got the same. My boy, Novak. When you're supported, you don't play at your best. You don't want people cheering. Cheering brings you down. But when they're hurling abuse at you and you're the villain, then you win games with aces, so to speak. So you need the hate in order to perform your best.

29:26The only time I saw Novak be absolutely terrible was, do you remember he was playing at the Olympics? Yeah. He was trying to win the Gold Slam or whatever it was called, which is the Grand Slam plus the Golden Slam. So everybody was cheering him. Everybody wanted to win. The dude bombed like I've never seen a bomb like that before. Basically, he couldn't play tennis. I just played with the wrong hand. I think you're the same. You just had a certain base level of hate in order to perform at your best. So come on, tell me the Atlassian issue now. Well, there's no real news, which is the bizarre thing.

29:57So I was down 28%. Well, that's great for a podcast. What else you got with no real news for the podcast? Basically, analysts have looked at my LinkedIn posts from four years ago and realized maybe this business isn't worth$100 billion, given it makes no money and isn't really growing that fast. So it's down to$32 million. This is just a remarkable drop. I haven't seen a company of this scale drop like this really outside a massive sort of market-wide crash. This is a catastrophe. Yeah, I agree with you about that. Yeah, this is a big drop for – I mean, like a lot of things have fallen and you could say like Life360 has fallen heaps and Melbourne – what's it called?

30:35I was going to say Melbourne IT. That is a blast from that. Technology One, I don't know why I confused them. Technology One, but these are not of the scale of Atlassian. They're not even listed on the same market as Atlassian, But the NASDAQ has gone bananas, actually, in the last few months. Well, Alassane is now down. If you look at since 2020, it hit its peak in December 2021. It's down 74 % since then and doesn't pay dividends, this stock. So that's a genuine 74 % drop. This is against NASDAQ, which has probably, I don't know, has it gone up 50 % since then? So this is just a catalysmic drop off.

31:07The relative underperformance will be terrible. No doubt about that. I totally agree with you. And it shows the wisdom in Mike and Scott in selling shares constantly. And we've regularly said this is pretty smart for them to be constantly selling down because they've been selling down at a 4X valuation. So good on them. Shame on these Atlassian employees who are getting script. Obviously, the script does vest in three months. But if you're working at Atlassian getting script and thinking your script's valuable when it's dropping 75%, well, I think you need to get some urgent financial help there because the Atlassian employees have been taken to the cleaners and absolutely given a new one because this is a disaster for Atlassian employees.

31:45You should call it Crypt. That should be your name of the stock because it's cash masquerading as script or vice versa. So that's what you should be calling it. I do want to say that I think what you can surmise from this particular experience is that it takes – you're about four years too early on things, maybe a bit less because this started falling less than, you know, a year ago, let's say. But, you know, you called it four years ago. It started falling when I started calling. It just took a while to really make it all the way down. To really get momentum, yeah. So, and look, obviously, you know, I mean, I always say with this business, like you've got a business that has this much, there's like this many customers, it's this embedded.

32:25There's always time to turn it around. But I just say what we've said over and over and over again, make money, the share price at this point in time, I think will go up if it makes material money. You know what the concept of anti-fragile is? Just to give you a quick reminder, because I'm going to say something about you that I think you'll take as a compliment, but it remains to be seen. So basically, fragile, that means if there's uncertainty, you know, it's at risk of breaking. And robust, it means if there's uncertainty, it can survive it. But anti-fragile is things that are uncertain or extremely volatile, probably would be a better word, volatility.

32:59Volatility improves their value, like an option, for example. And I think you are the anti-fragile contrarian because not only are you prepared to go and say the opposite, which not many people are prepared to do, but some are. Some will go and do it. But the more people that criticize you for saying something that's unorthodox, the more committed you become or convinced you become of your views. And so I think like the negative feedback that you get when you have a contrarian view really helps you solidify your view on something. Don't you agree with that? Well, it certainly is when the people who are – ultimately, when I made this call – actually, I made the call originally and then I backed up the call and got some criticism from two people – I won't mention their names – two people who I really like and respect, two of the sort of godfathers of venture capital in this country, both had a go at me.

33:43And I like them both, so I won't mention their names. But it turned out that neither of those guys who I think are super smart guys actually didn't need work to justify that call. So, I've done the work. I think when you do the work, you've got to just back yourself in that your view is right. And ultimately, the market's often irrational in the short term. And I think with this one, a lot of smart people I spoke to who agreed, no one was ever willing to go on the record against the Atlassian sort of beast that it was because it had such great sort of PR strength. And even to this day, it's still got great PR strength.

34:14And Mike still has great sway over Australian governments and Scott's running the tech council, all that kind of stuff. So ultimately, these guys still have great sway in the community, especially the tech community. So ultimately, people are just scared to sort of criticize, not even criticize them, just scared to criticize the valuation of it last year. Well, listen, firstly, you didn't go on the record. You were the record, basically. Like there was almost no one else saying it. But secondly, it's not just their money that makes them influential. I think you would agree with what I'm about to say.

34:44They have built one of the top 10 tech businesses in Australia. I don't know where it sits. Today, you're going to be more bearish on it. But if you look at it objectively, you look at the success. Well, it's still a$10 billion business, like regardless. And that's still a great, that's a top 10 business, really. And I think it's a$50 billion business when they make$2 billion of earnings, which I think is very possible, is my view on it. We've talked about this a lot. I'm not sure I can get to$2 billion of earnings, but I can get to more than it's got. Yeah, more than a billion. And so the reason they're influential as well is they have created one of the greatest tech businesses that has ever come out of the country.

35:19Well, I think the caveat there is it's never made money. Oh, sorry. It made a little bit of money pre-listing, but it's never made proper money. Never made money since it listed. And the downfall – and people are calling SaaS's death, whether it's true or not. Well, I don't think it's true. There's a chance that this business never makes money. If it just never gets around to making money and SaaS dies, people start vibe-coding their own stuff. Oh, I would love to take the other side of that bit. That's it. I totally disagree with that. SaaS is not dead. The user interface is going to change over time.

35:49to be i think the internet as i've said before is going to turn into like a dialogue chat type of chat box will be the more common thing but i really don't think sass is dead i don't think the front end interface for sass is dead i think it massively underestimates incumbency and how much enterprise and business customers in particular like a familiar front end i think vibe coding is amazing until you do it or until you're a coder like it's like you're not going to be competing with high quality coders trying to vibe code something but i think the problem is If you look at something like Atlassian, something like Atlassian is a pretty basic, it's effectively a pinboard.

36:25It's a pinboard, essentially. I don't know. I think Salesforce is a harder thing to vibe code and Xero is harder to vibe code because you've got all the tax laws. But if I'm thinking what's the easiest thing to vibe code, it's a pinboard like Atlassian. Essentially, Confluence is a waste of time. It's got one product, Jira, and to me, that's the easiest thing to vibe code. So I'm not sure. I think if something goes down, it's this before Salesforce and Xero and all that stuff. So people love, people come up to me and they say one of their favorite things is how we disagree on stuff, which is interesting because I think we almost always agree on things personally.

36:57But people say, oh, you guys disagree so much. I love when you disagree. And so what I've learned is this. When I'm agreeing with you, I just have to let you keep talking. And then it comes to a disagreement. Eventually I get to a place where like, you know, I can vibe code JIRA on a Saturday afternoon. And then I'm like, great. Okay, now I found something to disagree with you on. So let me move on to the next topic you're going to love. I'm going to move past Atlassian. You're going to love this next topic. I wonder if you know this, if you saw this in the media. It's a quiz question. It's not a quiz, just one question.

37:27Mike, you're welcome to answer this. You go first. Okay. I won't tell him if he's right. You'll answer after him. That's a very long lead-in for a very short question. Which profession, which group of professionals, that's a better way to say it, which group of professionals has just had the amount of money they're allowed to charge government per day increased to$5 ,000 a day. Which group of professionals do you think that is, Mike, before you jump in, Adam? Okay, this is complete stab in the dark, just as a disclaimer, but I'm going to say surgeons. Surgeons. I don't know that many. Oh, I see, because of Medicare or something?

38:00All right, that's a decent guess, Adam. Well, you've picked the wrong contrarian, Mike. It's actually Adam's former occupation, not ideas. It's King's Council's. Yes. Senior councils, King's councils. You're close, though. So when they do work for the government, they get capped on how much they're allowed to charge the bureaucracy because it's taxpayer money. It's the only thing that gets capped, as far as I can see, of taxpayer money. But anyway, they get capped. Yeah, exactly. And they get capped at$5 ,000 a day. What do you think about that as a daily rate, Mike? Would you be happy to earn$5 ,000 a day?

38:33Yeah, I'd be pretty happy with that. It's about what Mike charges us. Yeah, you're okay with that? $25 ,000 a week? Yeah, look, I would say that's a substantial amount of money. It's a very significant amount of money. And so where do you think that sits relative to what non-government organizations and companies have to pay senior councils in general? You think that's about the same? Do you think 5k is lower than I would pay, for example, or higher than I would pay per day? I think it's lower. So it's a lot lower. So my dream would be to pay a senior council$5 ,000 a day. I've paid a lot of senior councils, unfortunately.

39:11And I reckon I could get, depending on who, somewhere between one and three hours of work out of a senior council for$5 ,000 a day. And I tried to persuade senior councils they should charge me government rates because I'm such a nice guy. I mean, it didn't go well. It fell on deaf ears. But that gives you some idea of like the cost of lawyers, the fact that, and I don't begrudge it, by the way. I think they were charging$2 ,000 or$3 ,000 a day, which I don't know what kind of senior council would work for $2 ,000 or$3 ,000 a day. It's absurd. Yeah, I think that's the problem. The problem is the government then gets like second, third tier representation and loses cases.

39:46So I'm not sure, like I'm not sure why there's any cap, to be honest. Like I'm not one for sort of rampant taxpayer spending, but I think this wasn't, this was a smart move at the least and it should be actually market rate really. Well, the market rate is up to$25 ,000 a day in my experience. I don't think you want to have taxpayers paying$15 ,000 or$25 ,000 a day per senior council, plus the junior barrister they come along with costs money as well. Well, you don't want to, but you also don't want to get second-rate counsel. So I'd rather the Commonwealth be winning cases. You know why senior counsels agree to do government work, in my experience?

40:19There's two reasons, really. One is because it's often very interesting work. The second reason is because there's a lot of it. And so, like, you can fill up your time with government work. And so the government should be able to get a discount for providing, I mean, basically it's a scale economies discount that the government's getting. It feels like it's a bit too scale. I think it should be more like half the price, not a quarter of the price. I think when you're getting a quarter of the money, you just risk not getting the best QCs, KCs, and I don't want that as a taxpayer. It would be half the price of like$10 ,000 a day, let's say a day's eight hours.

40:59that would be still a pretty good KC, Senior Counsel. I use King's Counsel and Senior Counsel interchangeably, so it would be a pretty good Senior Counsel still. It's$10 ,000 a day. So I would say it's kind of half the price of a good Senior Counsel. Yeah, but it's an interesting point. I am actually totally shocked that you have not gotten up, foamed at the mouth and ranted and raved about the overpayment to lawyers, and here you are advocating that the poor sort of a taxpayer needs to pay more money than$5 ,000 a day to a senior council. Well, it's a moral case if you get what you pay for here.

41:33If you're losing multi-million dollar cases as a result, I think it's penny wise, pound foolish. So that's probably why. I'm certainly not in favour of paying people a lot of money unnecessarily, but sometimes you do have to pay people money. And speaking of rampant waste of taxpayer dollars, that's a good segue. We talked about it last week, but the fallout from the implosion of the Adelaide Writers Week has certainly continued. It's got a lot of column inches this week, and it was revealed in The Australian that it was actually a years-long battle with publisher Louise Adler and it became so dysfunctional the secret risk assessment was conducted into her management into the axed event.

42:04Apparently, board members of the Writers' Week became so agitated last year by Adler's conduct that the majority resolved to dump her as a director. Somehow, Adler survived and this culminated in the Writers' Festival being cancelled after 180 people withdrew following the axing of Randa Abdul-Fattah. The Australian claimed that former board members have disputed suggestions that South Australian Premier Peter Malinaskis was to blame for the decision to uninvite Abdul-Fattah, revealing the board had been agonising for months about the wisdom of her inclusion. In a self-serving article written, of course, in The Guardian, Adler claimed, in my view, boards composed of individuals with little experience in the arts and blind to the moral implication of abandoning the principle of freedom of expression have been unnerved by the pressure exerted by politicians and their electoral prospects.

42:46Adler continued, one can only assume that in due course, these concerns might be cited by opponents of free speech, demand the cancellation or silencing of others who demand the justice for Palestinian people. South Australia's tourism slogan could be welcome to Moscow on the torrents. Adler, of course, could either be lying, hypocritical, or a combination of both given it was revealed. She led a demand that the Adelaide Festival retract an invitation to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, who happens to be Jewish two years ago. Apparently for Adler, free speech is only available for people who criticize Israel, not for Jews themselves.

43:19Adir, what do you make of this mess? You know, I had an article in fin an opinion piece um where i basically tried to explain something that we talk about all the time which is that randa abdul fattah did not get cancelled for her identity she got cancelled for the lack of humanity that she demonstrated by effectively um putting doing all of the things that we spoke about last week those these dreadful things i'm so hesitant to use the word un-Australian because it's such a terrible saying but these type of things when I say un-Australian I mean they are inconsistent with the values values of western liberal democracy and so I think that's why she should have been never have been invited as Jo Astin kind of pointed out it's obvious why she was invited it's pretty obvious there's been a 10-year slide of a lot of this literary and arts world down I would say the totally wrong path for liberal democracy but those people who disagree with everything I say and think that she should be allowed to spout what I think is hate speech and she should be given a platform for doing it and those are exactly the type of people that we should be having to write as festivals.

44:32There's good news for those people. Do you know what that good news is? What's the good news? The Adelaide Writers Festival is back on for 2027 and she's the first invitee. Did you not know about that? Sorry, I absolutely knew about that. That is true. So, I mean, that is beyond belief, isn't it? It's the opposite to beyond belief. I think, like, obviously I'm not a fan of Abdul Fattah, but I'm not going to talk about her. She holds her views, and there are people who hold reverse views. So I'm not going to – I'm not suggesting any of these people get platform. I think – no, I'm talking about call the ultra-extreme on the other side, which might be that Palestinians shouldn't be able to exist either, whatever these views are.

45:12I'm not trying to interrupt you on this, but I'll tell you the difference in how I view that and why I thought you meant reasonable people is I think the views that are being held here, like that we're talking about that she's expressed are, I hate people based on their identity. And if you happen to hate a different group of people based on their identity, that in fact is the same view. It's not a different view. It's the same view just substituting the name of the group whose identity you hate. So all of these, I don't know, there are fundamentalist Jews, fundamentalist Christians, fundamentalist Hindus, all of them that just hate people on the basis of their identity.

45:47I think they all have shared views. They've just decided to hate a different group based on their identity. Yeah, so I think the point is not that her views are repulsive or whatever they are. The fact is that why is tax – we talked about taxpayer dollars a minute ago. Why – and people talk about this Adelaide Writers Festival. There were 166 ,000 people who went there and all this sort of – and it was super popular. It's been going for 40 years. Well, it's – this event is free. So you run a free event. Of course, you're going to get people to rock up to it. Millions and millions of dollars of taxpayer monies get spent on this ridiculous left-wing, far-left woke disgrace of an event.

46:23Like if they want to hold this event, I've got no issue with Rand or whoever holding an event for themselves. But why is taxpayer dollars? Why are truck drivers, butchers, taxi drivers, hardworking South Australians and Australians working, getting 50 % of their money taken away, confiscated by the government and given to these clowns? That is the biggest disgrace with all this. Taxpayer funded. That's the absolute disgrace. These guys want to have their own due hating event wherever they want. Have it. I don't care. Do it. But don't take my money to fund it is the problem. Well, I do care. I still care about that even.

46:54Like definitely don't take my money. But also, I don't think it should be held. I'll do a little Jeopardy question for you, by the way. You know, Jeopardy, I say the thing and you say the – you know how it works. Yeah, exactly the question. You know, it's not great being like this with words at the moment considering we're on a podcast. This organization interviewed Randall Abdel Fattah without asking a single question about her views on October 7 or Zionists. Finish the – which media organization was that? Who is the ABC? I'm shocked that you got that. Well done. How did you figure that out? Well, I think you know my view on the ABC's funding.

47:32So if these people want to hold these views, like I'm a free speech, I wouldn't say absolutist, but I'm very much in favor of free speech. They can have their free speech. Just don't have it on my dime. That's the issue. And if Louisa Adler wants to run a writers' festival with every left-wing writer in the world, have it. Just don't get taxpayer funding for it. That's the issue. And these people have literally hijacked, basically hijacked the arts. They've worked with politicians to gerrymander funding. There's no centrist riding festivals. They're all far left. They're all like this. Well, this is a great point.

48:06So I'm going to, this is my, you know, I'm going to say something, make a big assumption. I feel very strongly about this. I think the vast majority of Australians here, I'm talking, I think 85%, that that's how much I think of a majority it might be, feel like the middle has fallen out of Australia. that everything this is when i say the middle i mean like from the middle class being left unable to buy property watching the rorts of politicians spending money um like inflation being out of control like the middle middle class has been left behind i feel the middle of the political spectrum has been left behind everything in everyone is arguing about these extreme views on everything and nobody is just talking about reason like that hovers around the center i think basically this country has lost its middle and the vast majority of people in this country are largely still centrist plus or minus a little bit the vast majority of people in this country are still middle class people and now we have a situation where there is no leader that has stood up to resent that enormous majority middle of this country.

49:18And that is the reason that the country is sliding down this terrible path. And that is the reason that people like Chris Minns look so terrific when they stand up after the Bondi massacre and speak in language that is more typical of the traditional middle of the country. I think that is what's going on here. Can I put a view forward that you might not like, but I think Chris Minns is great style, No substance. He talks a great game and everybody after Bondi, how great is Chris Minns, how bad is Elbow? They're as bad as each other. Chris Minns is allowing hate marches to go ahead. Like he talks a big game.

49:53He hasn't done a thing. Well, I don't agree with that at all. Well, look at the hate marches that happened last week. They're not stopping them. They're happening. So I was in this town hall. I'm not going to call it a march. I'm going to call it a rally. And there's a reason I'm going to make that distinction. I'll get to it. I'll be very brief. So I went there. I was shocked to see that it was happening. I didn't mean to go there, but I bumped into it, unfortunately. I would say there were, it was at town hall as usual, 300 protesters. The police would have been there on a ratio of one to one with the protesters.

50:21The police were, their whole, like it felt like the whole riot squad was deployed there. They were all wearing these vests that said riot squad on the back of their garments. There were like some very senior police there and tons of just regular beat police. and what was happening is that all of the same language, all of it was unchanged and unchallenged as it was previously. I know I'm talking in favour of what you've just said. I'll tell you why I'm not going to hold on. Thanks for making my point. I've got a different view about Chris Minns, which I'll get to at the end. And so, like, it was terrible.

50:53And by the way, I walked past a rally that was like some Persians about what was going on in Iran and I had a chat to them. No one was paying any attention to them, yet at this point anti-Semitic, really. The Greens' flags were up. They were cheering. They were clapping along. And so I was very upset about it. I went over to some police, to a few groups of police, and I had a chat with them to try to understand what was going on. I mean, these are good people, okay? Really, I have to say to you, like, these are brave people, and they hate these protests, and they hate the content. And they, from my conversations with them, I mean, they could see I was quite upset about the whole thing.

51:28They feel the Bondi massacre very personally, because it affected them personally. Well, they lost two of their own got severely injured. That's right. Thankfully, not killed. But they take it very personally. And this is what they said to me. And this is multiple groups of police that said this, so I assume it's true. I said, how can you, you know, what I said to them is, these chants are what created the environment in which the Bondi massacre occurred, the anti-Semitic environment. They were in complete agreement, every one of them. I said, how can you let this happen? And they said, what we have been told is that we can't stop them rallying and we can't stop them chanting, but we can stop them marching.

52:05And so that is why there are so many police here, to stop them moving. Now, that makes no sense to me. I can't even tell if it's true or not, but multiple had said that to me. Who cares if they're moving or not? That's just ridiculous. I think the most heartening part of the experience was that I would say almost every single person that was walking past or waiting to catch the light rail, every one of them just had this visible disdain and revulsion by the protest and the rally and what was going on. And I do think that the majority of Australia has decided that anti-Semitism is an Aussie problem and they want it to stop.

52:41And these protesters, I don't want to call them protesters, agitators, haters, they have lost support of Australia. And part of that is Minza's rhetoric. You might say it's only rhetoric, but part of it is the public rhetoric that has given shape to this idea that it's all inconsistent with Australian values. I think it was the fact that 15 people died. I don't think it was anything Min said. I think it was the deaths that got Australians to sort of be aware of this. And I'll also add two pretty salient points. One point is there was only two people, I wouldn't say arrested, but sort of moved on by police.

53:16It was a Christian holding a No Hamas sign and I think a Jewish guy. So the far-left Palestinians were able to sort of stay in peace, pardon the pun. and did you see who was appointed the latest judge of the supreme court of new south wales it was a guy who's on the record of of being anti-semitic so like this is chris minns is new south wales he can't sit on pro on palestinian cases so he's not on the record of being anti-semitic but he's got enough questionable stuff on the record that yes there is the absurd situation that certain controversial cases including involving police are not going to come before him Well, who appoints Chris Minns' government?

53:56You can defend Chris Minns all you want, but his actions speak very much louder than his words. His words may be great, but his actions are horrific. And his actions are no better than Albany. Poor Elbow is copying it left, right and center. He's done no worse than what Minns has done. He's not appointing far left judges, as many more than Minns is. He's not. Minns is the one on the ground. He should be telling the police to cancel these hate rallies. And he's not. Why are we defending this guy? I tell you why. Because almost everything that you said is some nuance of not exactly what you said.

54:25Minns doesn't appoint judges. Like the Attorney General appoints judges. Sack the Attorney General then, Chris. If he's appointing these far left judges. He can sack him. It's his appointee. I think the Attorney General may well have been clueless about what was going on with this judge. Well, he shouldn't have been appointed in the first place then if he's that clueless. All right. Well, welcome to politicians. So you don't get the choice of every single great person on earth when you're trying to put together a cabinet. Well, my point is, like, why are we hailing Chris Minchin this great statesman when he's hopeless?

54:53I'll tell you why. Because he's passing laws to try to stop this stuff going on. And he's fighting against people that have historically been perceived as being part of the Labor constituency who are trying to stop these laws going through. I think you're being way too hard on him. Okay. Well, I think our listeners will love this disagreement. No, our listeners will agree with you. I'll tell you why. Because the thing that happens in arguments is that the person that feels most passionate sounds like they're more compelling. And so I've got no chance of convincing people about like, well, there's nuance because nobody wants nuance.

55:29It's because if you said to me, do you want Adam to be the person that stands up and fights this cause? I would say, yeah, pick Adam. Get him to stand up and fight this cause because you would fight this cause very well. I only disagree with you on the margins of what you're saying, but I do think you're too harsh on Chris Bins. So what about this as a concept to finish off with? If I have a good idea about a one-day book festival, I don't want to reveal what it is, will you come and be interviewed at my one-day book festival? I can't tell you what it's about. You'll do it, right? All right. I'm going to see if I can put on a one.

56:01I've got a lot of ambition. Mostly it's not going to happen realistically. The bar's too high to get over with a lot of this stuff. I reckon you get a better author than me, to be honest. I think you're sort of scraping the bottom barrel if I'm your guest. No, I think no one else is going to get the front page of every newspaper when there's no editing of what they're saying in a public forum. You're my dream. Like, super smart, written a book, and also, like, you know, everybody's going to be writing about it. Now, I've got an idea for what I think is a very interesting one day interviewing authors about a topic that might start to bring this whole idea of literature and the arts away from being completely dominated by identity politics and political positions.

56:40Like, it has to start somewhere. On that note, we'll go to a super quick break, back with our couple of business stories in just a moment.

56:54And we are back. And you may have seen the article in the AFL last week that said the RBA is not under gangland style pressure that's been put on the US Federal Reserve by Donald Trump, to borrow a phrase by former RBA member Warwick McKibben. However, central bank insiders are wary that the possibility of partisan appointments and rising government debts could pose a risk to the central bank's independence. In response to this week's event, governors from 11 central banks, including the RBA's Michelle Bullock issued a joint statement saying they stand in full solidarity with Jerome Powell, who of course heads the Federal Reserve, and that the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial, and economic stability.

57:32It's actually hard to know whether laugh or cry reading this self-serving monstrosity from Bullock, given the RBA is far more politically monster than the Federal Reserve. Shockingly, the Treasury Secretary, who is currently Jenny Wilkinson, is a full voting member of the RBA, which is far worse than anything Trump's suggesting. And even worse, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has essentially stacked the RBA monetary board with lackeys, leading to a shocking decision to cut 75 basis points off rates last year. This, of course, has led to an explosion in inflation. Chris Joy, who's one of the best economic writers going around, wrote in his AFR column last week, after years of relative dubbishness and boasting about not lifting rates as far as global peers, the RBA is staring down the mother of all policy embarrassments.

58:17It was compelled to be the first central bank in the world to raise rates again after a failed easing cycle. This frankly makes the February rate hike a bitter pill to swallow, Joy claimed. It's pathetic that the RBA of Australia has engaged in zero jawboning of reckless political spending when this has been the primary driver of Australia's inflation crisis. I dear, your views on this debacle. Well, when you think about it and take a step back, It is a weird concept that the government can use political expediency as the basis of their decisions on the whole of fiscal policy. That means how much money are we going to spend on what?

58:57And that is the majority of what shapes the economy. And then you've got this carve-out piece called monetary policy, which we can just summarise simply as interest rates. It's not just, but it's interest rates. And that is not supposed to have any political fingerprints on it whatsoever and be its own thing. The weird thing that I've not seen anyone speak about, because obviously that was not always the case, I think in the US it might have happened after the Wall Street crash of 29 and then the depression in the 30s. Is that right? I'm actually reading 1929, which is the book by Andrew Ross Sorkin.

59:34You're talking about the Federal Reserve, which was actually created in 1912. 1912. And the Federal Reserve in the US is different to the RBA. The Federal Reserve is essentially a collection of regional banks. So the members of the Fed Reserve essentially were banks. So the regional Fed was just the big, imagine the big four banks in Australia becoming on the RBA. That's kind of how the Federal Reserve was when it was created in 1912. And do you think the plan was to be independent of political influence in that structure? Like, how did the US develop that idea of political independence with their reserve?

1:00:04I think it became more independent over the years. And if you look at the last couple of weeks where Powell came out a couple of weeks ago and said, there was that whole thing that Trump's trying to criminally charge, trying to get a grand jury to charge him for that ridiculous, like the Fed building going over cost, which is a fraction of how much the RBA building went over cost incidentally. But the whole thing was just how do you remove the independence of the Fed? And there's rightfully been huge kickback from pretty much everyone in the States. Yet in Australia, we've got a very minimally independent RBA now because Chalmers is by stealth really removed its independence.

1:00:37It's obviously got the Treasury Secretary on there, but it's also got a bunch of people here appointed. Yeah. So I think what we're seeing in the world today is how much of our societal structure is held together on the basis of a handshake agreement. And the reason I say that is because you look at politically elected leaders in Australia and in the US, they get to appoint the judges of the highest court in the land. That's who appoints them. But there's been a handshake agreement that we get to appoint you, and it'll be a bit political in terms of what side of politics you're on and your views, but after that, like, you're supposed to be independent and don't be influenced by us.

1:01:17Handshake agreement. And then you look at the Federal Reserve and the RBA. We get to appoint whoever we want onto those boards as the government, but then we are going to have a handshake agreement that you're not going to be influenced by us at all, and you're going to be independent and do your own thing and sometimes humiliate us the day before an election and make us lose the election. But these are all handshake agreements. And I'm not saying there's nothing in writing and no framework in writing, but ultimately what we've seen, and I know that there is nothing that the Albanese government would hate more than being compared to Donald Trump's government, but the bottom line is that what we are seeing in some Western democracies around the world, including the US and including Australia, is the extent to which people are at the very least prepared to stretch the limits of those handshake agreements and in many cases throw out those handshake agreements all together and just do their own thing and I think that that is the direction that in my view too much of society is headed in and I'm not quite sure what the solution to that is.

1:02:17Who would you have on the RBA board? Tell me three people you would have on the RBA board. So firstly you would make it independent, You would make it totally independent. You would stop all of this. You can be on this part of the RBA or that part. You would just say there's an RBA. It sets rates. It's independent. And you would say, I don't know, we can't say it's unlawful, but you would say there are prescribed limitations for the influence that government can have over the RBA. Who are you putting on? Tough. I haven't thought. I think Saul Eastlake's a great economist in Australia. Tim Bloxham's a really good economist.

1:02:46I haven't really thought about it enough. I think he's HSBC. So you're putting economists on there, basically. Yeah, I'm putting economists on there. Only economists? You like business people. You're going to chuck some business people on. You could put business people on there. I'd be wary of putting sort of conflicted business people. Remember, Soli Liu was on in the 90s. I think conflicted business people would be difficult. I think someone like me shouldn't be on. I'd be too conflicted. But by conflicted, you mean anybody that runs – well, I would be conflicted as well because anybody who sells anything to consumers – Yeah, but your business is less.

1:03:19No, but I'm involved in lots of stuff that sells stuff to consumers. Yeah. And so there'll be an incentive for me to lower rates, right? That's what you're saying. Everybody's conflicted in some sense because if you own a property, you kind of want lower rates and most people at this age should own property. So you're going to get a degree of conflict, but I think you want to be like somewhat conflicted but not completely conflicted and almost not at the whim of the government of the day, which is the problem. So this is my view on the types of people that should be appointed to everything. I personally do not care if you're conflicted.

1:03:54In a way, I want you to be conflicted because the more conflicted you are, the more you know about what's going on and what it does. What I want is people who are extremely ethical and believe in the good of the country as more than making money for themselves, at least for some period of time, and will say, I'm really conflicted. I've got all of these things. They're all on the table. None of that is going to matter to me. For five years, all I'm going to do is put the country first because I really love the country and believe in it, even if it hurts me personally. It's not an easy thing to do, but there are tons of people that would do that.

1:04:30This idea that everything where there's conflict is going to end up being motivated predominantly by self-interest, I think it really underestimates how many ethical people there are in the world that would be prepared to do the right thing. And I think government pressure makes all of that harder because it's hard enough getting people not to act with self-interest before you start layering on all this extreme government pressure for what will happen to them if they don't behave in the way the government wants. If you look at countries where we don't have independent sort of monetary bodies, Zimbabwe, Turkey, there's a number of them and they generally, like the country doesn't go well.

1:05:07Russia, like this is what happens when you don't have independent money. You basically have runaway inflation and that's, we know how bad, there's nothing worse than inflation. You know you're going to have to put a unionist on or someone that is speaking for the people. That is how it works. Yeah, I think you'd sort of balance business with labor. I don't think that's unreasonable. All right, there you go. So I think ultimately all of this is, I actually agree with you, it's all a debacle if we just focus on Australia. The government has really undermined the institution of the RBA in my view.

1:05:38I totally agree with you about that. And let's move on to our very popular M &A Deep Dive, brought to you, of course, by our great friends of Terim Capital. Scott, who's been a great favourite of the show, will be on soon. They acquire technology companies to grow sustainably over decades. If you think of selling your business, and we know how hard it is to find a buyer of a business. You want to discuss how it might work with the guys from Terrem, Terrem.capital slash contrarians. Let's take a look. They want to buy great businesses at a fair price. So speak to Scott and the team. I want to chat about, which I sort of mentioned a couple of weeks ago, but this is a really interesting topic.

1:06:09And we're talking about Popmart. Because Yikai Global, I think it's a Chinese newspaper, reported on 31st of December that some Lububu dolls on Chinese resale platforms have fallen up to 88 % from their peak prices. with certain figures now below the original retail price. While Shanghai City News wrote, from boom to bust, LeBouBou tumbles on resale market as hype fades, with rare hidden LeBouBou's dropping from over 10 ,000 won to the low hundreds. Popmark Global, the maker of LeBouBou, has dropped from 335 Hong Kong dollars to only 197, and their 50 % fall in just four months. Although the share price does remain 10 times the level of October 2024, and the business is still worth 50 billion Australian.

1:06:52Rival overhyped soft toy business, Jellycat, however, used to perform extremely well if my queuing experience and self-witches was when he got out. Jellycat remains privately owned by founders. Do you know who owns Jellycat business? I have no idea which country it's even from. It's British. It's Thomas and William Gattaca. Thomas serves as founder and chairman and William is the co-founder and managing director. Jellycat's revenue for the year ending 31 December But 2024, obviously, UK is a bit slow with the filings, was£333 million. And its pre-tax profit doubled. What do you reckon its profit margin is, I dear?

1:07:26They could be making 20 % pre-tax on this business, 60, 65 mil. Its pre-tax profit doubled to£139 million. Oh, my gosh. That's actually crazy. Its after-tax profit is 30%, which is ridiculous. That is crazy. I do want to be the one to break this news to you. But, you know, you have talked about Jellycat Affair. bit and this is 2024 accounts like jelly cats popularity has waned somewhat in the last year and a half i disagree with that i was i was literally in the jelly cat building and you couldn't walk in there it was so busy so i vehemently disagree with that all right well it is it is a hundred percent based on anecdotal information you're right about that and so let's make sure you grab their 2025 numbers when they come out and we can not rely on my anecdotes we can get some facts.

1:08:15It'll be interesting to see whether I think they've gone down because my daughter's getting older and she's probably less interested in it and you're just seeing the rise of it more than I am. It'll be interesting to see. Well, I sent you and Mike the video of selfridges when I've never seen such pan... It's like the Beatles were in town. Literally, you couldn't walk in there. It was a health risk. So that's certainly indicating... And they're charging like$90 to$100 per little... These tiny little teddies, which is more than the boo-boos. How old is this business? I think it's like 40 years old-ish.

1:08:47What? I think it's like 30, 40. I think it was the 80s. I could be wrong, but it's definitely not new. And the founders, like the people running it are the original founders. Yeah, the two brothers who founded it. So did it go anywhere for the first 30 years? I think it grew slowly and I think it grew organically and then it's obviously just exploded in the last sort of 10 years. What do you reckon it paid its owners in dividends last year? Well, I mean, you said they made 130 million pounds of after-tax profit. it i mean why would they be keeping any of that like the business is probably massively cash generative like a good point i don't know they paid out a hundred million of it a hundred million pounds yeah 110 million pounds in dividends up 75 i mean i have to say this business is amazing by what you're saying you know in terms of like the numbers what's most incredible to me is that this is not a vertically integrated retail business like you saw people buying them in selfridges.

1:09:40That means they're giving away margin to the retailer in order to sell. Well, I got a point on that. So by the way, it was founded in 1999. So I got it a little bit wrong. It's 26 years old, not 40 years old, but it's been around a while. Interesting that the business sparked a social media backlash last year. So I know your point, it actually dropped a hundred independent stockists in the UK and disgruntled retailers, some of which had been supported the brand for more than 20 years, took to social media to show how devastated they were to receive non-personalized letters informing that Jellycat had dropped them.

1:10:08So to your point, they've actually obviously dropped a lot of stockists. I think you can go, I think you can buy direct. They obviously sell through sell fridges. They don't sell through many avenues at all. All right, but think about their margins. They've obviously realized, why don't I need to give away money to these sort of retailers? I can sell it myself for this crazy amount. Do they sell it direct? Yes, you can. They sell direct. You can buy on their own website. So what did you say? $330 million, we're talking in pounds here. So$330 million of revenue for 2024 or thereabouts? and kept 160.

1:10:40So that's a 50 % like pre-tax margin. Let's call it EBIT. Okay. So 50 % EBIT margin. I mean, you cannot be giving away much. Like their cost of goods will be minimal. I reckon they might be keeping 85 cents in the dollar. Like the cost of goods might be 15 or 20 % on this thing. It costs nothing to make these things at scale, right? But even if their margins were 85%, which will be very high, their gross margin. That means they still only have 35 % of what, $100 purchase? Is that roughly the typical AOV, do you think? What's the average basket of this? They range from sort of 35 pounds up to well over 100.

1:11:19So let's say you buy more than one. I'll be generous and say 100 pounds is the average basket. That means they only have 35 pounds left for everything because I'm being generous and say they lost 15 of the 100 on the cost of goods they got 35 left for everything including like their fixed costs because um they're keeping 50 out of every 100 pounds or 45 out of every 100 pounds i do not know what the hell are they paying the retailers for selling this like totally fascinating they've actually got the beauty of the uk is it's everything's free so i'm just jumping on the uk version of asic and just looking at their accounts here which is amazing they got although it's a bit mushy sometimes those companies company house or whatever it's called.

1:11:59Is that what it's called? Company's house, exactly. But at least it's got it and it's free. So, our revenue was$332 million. Cost of sale was$106 million. And this is up from $199 million. So, their revenue went from, it's called,£200 million to£332 million. Their GP went from$129 to$225. So, that's, so hang on. So, we can say that$225 over$330 is nowhere near 85%. It's not even two-thirds. Like, that's 65%. 25%. Their sales and distribution expense is 50 million pounds, which is pretty low. So they're not giving much at all to any distributors. They've got an admin expense, which usually leaves all their wages and everything of 37 million pounds.

1:12:38So that leaves the 138 million. So my guess is that when they say our gross margin is only whatever it is, 67%, I'm going to call it, two thirds, I suspect that might include the, they might take out the clip the retailer takes from that. I think their blended gross margin after paying for all of the product and the sale through retailers, they might end up with 67 % of it after that because if not, it's just not possible that they could maintain this level of margin and it is shocking that they can sell £332 million of stuff for£50 million of marketing and selling. It's insane. Yeah, it's crazy.

1:13:23I mean, that is really impressive. Sub 20%. I mean, I guess a lot of it's being sold through stores, so maybe that helps. But usually what happens is that when you have items with a very high basket size, so, you know, I don't know, like if I was going to go and sell a$10 ,000 sofa or even like, I don't know, even a$5 ,000 sofa into the mass market, it's much easier to keep the percentage of customer acquisition costs down because there's so much actual money to play with. but when your average order is only$100, like you don't have much money to play with on the acquisition side. And so this business is run unbelievably efficiently to the point where I can say, if they said to me, can you come and help us run this business more efficiently and improve our margins and make more money?

1:14:07I think my answer would be no. Yeah, I think everybody's answer would be no. Like this just is incredibly well run. Well, it gets even better. How many staff do you reckon they have? Remember, this is a business that made in Australian dollar terms, $200 million profit after tax. So how many staff do you reckon it has to make$200 million after tax? So this is probably like a$3 billion business, maybe more, Aussie,$3,$4 billion Aussie business. Well, so their profit after tax was 130 million pounds. 105 million pounds after tax. Are those 20, yeah, this is 24. So 200 million AUD. Yeah, just over.

1:14:43But it's growing like a rocket. It grew 66%. What number did you say? Five bill? Is that your number? I don't think you'd grow at this level. I think they've had this amazing growth. Well, you think they did. You just told me I was wrong about saying that they were slowing down. I don't think they're dropping. I just don't think they're growing at like 66 % every year because that would just be crazy. But there's definitely scope to increase pricing. All right. But if you believed that they were going to grow at 30 % and 30 % and 30 % for the next three years, then this could be a$5 billion business, AUD.

1:15:15$5 billion. Yeah, I think that's fair. How many staff do you reckon they have to justify that? what I think is a, I agree with you,$5 billion AUD business. I'm going to start off something and you say if I'm right or wrong, okay? Fewer than a thousand. Fewer than a thousand is right. Because I was going to say this number, but I feel like it's too low. I was going to say 250 to 300, but it feels a bit low. Exactly, 300 staff they have. I mean, I can't believe it. I tried to reverse engineer how much, because you gave me a few numbers, and so I tried to reverse engineer in my mind how much I thought they were spending on employees, and I was like, oh my God, it's like if you took the average price of maybe 100k AUD and tried to fix that for the UK.

1:15:52It feels like there's 300, 250 to 300 employees, but I just didn't feel like I could give you that answer because it was so absurd. That's$17 million in market cap per employee. It's actually insane. I don't think I've seen it. There's a bit of obviously an immediate Microsoft, but in terms of businesses that are making money that are kind of accessible consumer businesses, there can't be that many better businesses than this out there. Let's say a caveat on this though. There aren't many better businesses based on the snapshot in time of this company. But if you said to me, how do I feel about their powers in maintaining this business and growth?

1:16:28As far as I know, and I might be wrong, but they gravitate very heavily around one product category, like very narrow product category. And there's nothing particularly special about that product. It's not unique. It's just that people love it and they didn't love it 20 years ago the way they love it today. And I think that this is not a very robust business in terms of its ability to maintain these profits. It's got some scale. I'd say they currently got a huge amount of brand, which gets in that massive margin. That's their big thing, like all consumer businesses. Other than brand, it's hard to see.

1:17:07I don't think there's anything else. I think it's just brand. I think it's just an enormous amount of brand. Yes. so we could say nothing else. You could argue they probably, you know what they probably have? They probably have that mythical eighth power if it's developed enough, that whimsy, that Hermes, the Nintendo, the HBO. No, they make soft toys, man. Like, come on. Yeah, but 26 years, like usually we've seen Popmart. Popmart's had a couple of good years and is now already dropping 50 % or whatever. So Popmart lasted a couple of years. These guys have lasted 10, 15 plus years. I think that's brand.

1:17:38That is something pretty special. Oh, there's clearly brand, but what's created that brand? Like to create that brand? No, I think there's nothing special about the product. I've used the product. When I say used, like touched and felt. And like, I don't know what used means. There's nothing special about that product, okay? Like basically, and so I think what brand might be able to get them, and this is the big test. So we talk about reduced CAC, increased pricing power. Okay, they can't reduce the CAC much more, and they can't increase the pricing power much more. The question is, can they go and do product-led growth by diversifying their product set using the brand?

1:18:17And I don't mean like they're going to start making, I don't know, like orange juice squeezes to pick a ridiculous thing. Like other toys, right? Other soft toys. Can they diversify so they're not so dependent on a whole lot of, what, 12-year-old girls or 20-year-old women or whoever's buying this stuff? It was actually, yeah, they weren't just 12. When I was in Selfridges, there was a huge rat. Obviously, younger girls, tweens were probably the key audience, but there was definitely not – there was older people buying them as well for sure. All right, but no one is looking at this product and saying, I need a soft toy.

1:18:48I'm in the market for a soft toy, and this is just a fundamentally better, more innovative product than the competition. They're buying it because it's a freaking jelly cat, right? And so the question is, can they use that brand to not be so susceptible to interest moving on to something else? That's ultimately the question. Well, I think the question is, can they become the Hermes of soft toys, which they've sort of, in a way, become – they've got Hermes-style margins. This is literally Hermes margin. There's no one else really has this. I feel like I'm listening to a parody account of you. Can they become the Hermes of soft toys?

1:19:24Well, their financials are the Hermes of soft toys. So, they've got margins that are literally a luxury product-style margin. They're better margins than Louis Vuitton. Maybe Hermes should buy them and stitch their logo on and they can put a zero on the end of the price. I don't know. You know what? I think this is a great business and they should milk the cash as they are. And I really would be trying to see if I can just very slightly take that brand equity and stretch it to some other really cool products. I'll tell you, this business is the opposite to Moose Toys. They're the opposite. And they're the opposite to that New Zealand business that were the founders of the richest people in New Zealand.

1:20:08The little things in supermarkets. Yeah, little shops or whatever. They're not called little shops. They're always the copy, but whatever they're called. But basically, the reason I say this is the opposite to those is those businesses don't trade on their own brand at all. They actually just trade on doing good licensing deals and incredible internal product innovation. And so that's their skill. I think that is a much more defensible business over time than a business that relies on being popular the way Jellycats does. I'd almost always agree with that. And I think Popmart's the classic case of short-term fad is ugly, but Jellycats have been able to over a long period of time, keep really a single product line.

1:20:45And they've got a bit of product-led growth. They do the fish and chips thing. They talk about in that annual report, there's a bit of product-led growth there. They work with 8 ,000 partners. They work with some of the best retailers, the self-reaches, and they work with Galleries Lafayette in Paris. They work with some pretty iconic stores globally. They're able to maintain a brand when usually these fads last, these kids' fads last, what, two, three years maybe? Maybe you can get Pokemon style, which lasts a bit longer. But this is for essentially a soft toy to last decades. There's something here that is powerful that I can't explain why that has Hermes-like qualities about it.

1:21:25Clearly, it's not Hermes. Hermes is 170 years old and is one of the greatest brands in the world. But there is some Hermes-like quality about this business that's leading to this gusher of cash. How long shall we see a jelly cat wearing a Hello Kitty cap? That's the question. Then you know - I think never. Then you know that they're desperate to just drive growth, right? But listen, I don't know what to say about this business except I'm totally shocked by their financials. I think on that note, on that happy note, in what has been a sort of interesting week, we'll bid farewell. Thank you, everyone, of course, for listening.

1:21:57And we're back on Saturday for our Ask Us Anything episode. Thank you, Adir. Thank you, Mike. We will see everybody shortly.

From the publisher

The guys deep dive into the incredibly profitable world of Jellycats, Atlassian’s share price crashes 28% in a month and Adam does (another) victory lap, King’s Counsels score a payrise, Adelaide Writers Festival collapses under the weightr of massive taxpayer funding, Jessy Wu comes on to talk about the death of SXSW Sydney and Adam’s joyful new passport experience. 

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