Can Starmer save Zelensky from another Oval Office ambush?

0:02The Telegraph.

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2:22Camilla: All eyes on the White House, Tim, where President Zelensky is going to revisit the Oval Office. Hopefully it will be more successful than the last time he met President Trump. And does it help? Yes, it probably does. That he's being accompanied by a team of European leaders who have his back, Starmer, Macron, Maloney and others. What we want to know is what is Britain's role in all of this? Is it true that Keir Starmer is the Trump whisperer? How will he have coached Zelensky to deal with the president? And most important question, what is a good outcome for Ukraine? Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Camilla Tominy.

2:58And me, Tim Stanley.

3:10Camilla: Tim, it's delightful to be back at work. I say that meaningfully. I mean, when I was off work, I was thinking, goodness me, work is overrated. Being on holiday is fun, but then you do have to work to go on holiday. Yes, you do. To afford it. Yes, that's true. And also it's work while you're there. Yes. Well, it was hard work, actually. Going through airports with men. That's difficult. Because they have to remove belts. He assumed airport dad and was like paces ahead of us. Right. Where's he gone? He's ahead with the trolley and the bags. But to be fair, most of the driving, we went to Umbria, which is the most fantastic part of Italy, I think, I've ever visited.

3:49Camilla: And then we had a week in Marbs. Ever been to Marbs? No, I haven't. No, no. Does it appeal? Mickey Beach? Yeah, I'm not really a beach person, but yeah. Well, it was fun. Did you miss me? Of course. Oh, we did. Yes. And I'm sure ratings are right down. So welcome back to everyone who's rejoining us because Camilla is back on the show again. Well, let's see if ratings tank. We know I'm not worth any weight at all and will no longer have any holidays. Shall we talk about the big summit? Yes. The Alaska summit. Because you're not the only person who's been travelling this summer. Yes. Putin flew to Anchorage in Alaska.

4:24Did they

4:24Camilla: do it in Alaska because they wanted it to be the American state that's most like Russia? I assume that's, I assume that, I mean, of course, my mind instantly goes back to, I can see Russia from my house, Sarah Palin. Yes. I forgot Sarah Palin even existed. And the funny thing is, people are not laughing now. It turns out the BBC spent many, many hours in the build up to the summit telling us that you pretty much can see Russia from Alaska. So actually, it turns out she was correct. Anyway, so today is the big day. Zelensky is going to be traveling to the White House with a whole load of European leaders behind him in order to try to secure a deal via Trump with Putin that hopefully is going to bring this war to a close.

5:06So the first question is, how do we get here? What is it they're discussing? And this comes off the back of the Alaskan summit between Trump and Putin.

5:15Camilla: Which we kind of reported as Trump being owned by the Russian president. Yes. You know, he's going there. It's on US soil. Putin's the one who opens the speeches afterwards. We have this strange moment where Trump calls him the boss, which Boris Johnson then wrote in the Mail on Sunday was vomit inducing. Yes. And the red carpet is rolled out. and a degree of legitimacy for a man wanted by the ICC for war crimes. Yes, yes. And then when they came to speak after the conference, Trump said very little, which was highly unusual for him. And Putin said a lot, including closing the conference by inviting Trump to meet him in Moscow next time, all of which felt like a power move.

6:01And because we hadn't really been given any details of what had been discussed, there was an assumption that it had broken down and Putin had played Trump. And we're back to that notion that Trump either is incompetent or even some people are just hinting at it but might be some sort of Russian agent because of his position on Russia. Now, watching all this, I found this very strange. And to me, it was a perfect example of how Trump is treated differently from every other president in history. The reality of summits is that you make nice. Yes. And you shake hands. So people covering it on the TV, on the BBC, were made a big deal out of the fact that, for instance, Trump kind of waved at Putin as he stepped off the plane.

6:45Camilla: Yes. So what? What's he meant to do? Two fingers up? I know, exactly. What the hell are you doing here? So everything that he did, and someone else has pointed out that if Biden and Harris had met with Putin like this, then the world would have been saying, what a brave and bold move, a gesture towards peace. Oh, God, yeah. I was reminded when watching it, Of course, my mind always goes back to Richard Nixon, who is for me the template president. And I was thinking of the extraordinary bromance that occurred between Leonid Brezhnev and Richard Nixon, which was even more remarkable considering that Nixon was during the Cold War such a strong anti-communist.

7:18But nonetheless, he negotiated an arms reduction treaty with Brezhnev and the two men got on incredibly well. And I tweeted a reminder that at their meetings, Nixon gave Brezhnev cars. He gave him an actual car. In 1972, he gave him a Cadillac. In 1973, he gave him a Lincoln Continental. That was a meeting that took place at Camp David, where famously Brezhnev then jumped in the car and drove around Camp David with Nixon in the seat next to him at breakneck speed. And Nixon was convinced they were going to die. And at their third meeting, ahead of the 1974 summit, Brezhnev let it be known through back channels that he's always wanted a Chevrolet Monte Carlo.

7:58After reading that it was the car of the year in the magazine Motor Trend. So not only did the Americans always present the Russians with a car, but what I love is that in exchange that year, Nixon got a painting.

8:10Camilla: Yes, that's communism versus capitalism for you in a nutshell, right? But wasn't it quite interesting that the White House did try to recreate the moment where Nixon is photographed in Khrushchev's face, pointing at him like he's dominating the summit? Oh, the kitchen debate, yes. There was that black and white photograph of Donald Trump similarly pointing at Putin. And obviously Trump is quite a towering figure compared to Putin, who I think tries to beef himself up by posing with his shirt off and riding horses across beaches, but is actually quite short. But then it didn't really tell the story because I don't think that the summit was left with the impression that Trump's completely in control.

8:49Camilla: No. And I think, again, this is a case in which I feel that some members of the media didn't actually listen to what was said. They just focused on the visuals. And what was said by Trump was, we have agreed on everything except for one really big thing. And it's possible that at that moment, him being unusually quiet wasn't a sign of him being weak. It was actually him for once doing what you need to do in diplomacy, which is playing your cards very close to your chest and not giving everything away. So it seems as if what they have agreed is that after the war, Ukraine will come under some kind of military protection agreement with NATO.

9:28So not a member of NATO.

9:30Camilla: No, that's been made clear this morning. Right. Which is Russia's demand. And some people say was the reason why Russia began this conflict, because it believed America was spreading into Ukraine. But not a member of NATO, but nonetheless will be protected by it. And that is a win for Ukraine because whatever territory it loses now, which of course is a bad thing, Russia invaded, it's plundered its borders, kidnapped its children, killed its civilians. Terrible. But whatever territory it does lose, at least in the future, it is now considered under the protection of the West. The thing it seems they have not yet agreed on is precisely what land will be submitted.

10:08And Putin wants control of the entire Donbass region.

10:11Camilla: Yes. And why wouldn't he? Because it's mineral rich. It's on the Russian border. Having said that, if you'd been in bloody armed combat since 2022, defending that Donbass region against all of the odds, Donetsk, Luhansk and the surrounding area, to suddenly have that given up. I mean, because the Ukrainian argument would be, hang on a minute, we have defended these territories to the death. But I can't see how any deal can be achieved really without some kind of geographical carve up. And I think most pragmatists can see that too. So Zelensky is going to be demanding that as much land is retained as possible.

10:48The other thing that there is some difference between him and America on is the question of whether it's a ceasefire or a peace treaty.

10:54Camilla: Yes. Well, what's the difference? I spoke to Lord Dannett, the former head of the armed forces yesterday about this on my GB News show. He said that was kind of a semantic point because if there were a ceasefire deal that Putin wouldn't obey it. It's a situation where nothing can be agreed until everything's agreed, which I can see the sense of. Yes. And my guess is that Ukraine would like to keep the pressure up, prefers a ceasefire because it doesn't take military action off the table. You don't stand people down with a ceasefire. On the contrary, you're always ready to go. Yeah. And therefore, there can be a longer conversation about who gets what land, whereas a peace treaty means this is over.

11:33Stand down. That's it.

11:35Camilla: This is what's been brokered. Yes. How's this working out today then? So it's all kind of to a US timetable, as you would imagine, because the meetings are all taking place in the Oval Office at the White House. So from 5pm UK time, we've got European leaders arriving. at 6pm, Zelensky arrives. We shall be watching his dress code carefully, won't we, Tim? Which is a really important thing because it was one of the sticking points last time he met Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Do you think he's going to come out of his fatigues? I don't think he is, is he? He'll be in his all-in-black number.

12:09Camilla: He'll be that milk tray man again. It will be a huge concession. It's very strange. I don't get why he doesn't do it, but I suppose that now it's understood that someone takes offence at it. Changing your dress is actually a massive concession, isn't it, Trump? Yes. So we expect Trump to be greeting him sort of at the door in the same way that he did the last time Zelensky went to the White House, which, as we both know, didn't go very well at all. It was interesting, wasn't it, to see Number 10 announced with a flurry last night, official announcement, immediate release, Starmer will be travelling to the White House to take part in this meeting.

12:44Camilla: I thought, oh, goodness me, the Prime Minister really throwing his weight around the international stage and then realise that he's actually just one of a full list of Europeans going. Macron's there. Mertz is there from Germany, obviously Italy. Maloney's there. Even Ursula von der Leyen gets a shout. And, of course, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter, who famously described Trump as the daddy. Yes. So he'll be welcomed with open arms. And there is, of course, there is this sense of it's almost a morale thing, isn't it? Europe being there. It's got to be there to give them, even if it is completely ignored, even if it has no say over negotiations and what's agreed whatsoever.

13:21It's doing this partly because it's there to support Ukraine in its sticking points over the nature of the, whether it's a ceasefire or a peace treaty and over how much land is given up. But it's also there to show that we are in the room, that Europe matters.

13:32Camilla: It's like the Goonies versus the Fratellis or something. It's like this whole troop of European leaders. I mean, there is an elephant in this room, which is that, let's be perfectly honest, the US absolutely has a point on defence spending. And actually, if you look at the amount of money that the Europeans have spent since 2024 purely on Russian gas and oil, which continues, it's like 22 billion. It overshadows how much they've actually sent to Ukraine in aid. The European nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas that has funded Putin's war effort than they have on giving aid to Ukrainians.

14:07And Trump famously warned them about this during his first term. And this is America's perspective. Their view is, look, Europe comes to us and says, this war is a moral principle. It must be fought. It's Hitler all over again. So please help us to fight it. But then Europe has not, as you say, completely separated itself from Russian imports, but also it has not transformed its economy. It's not built a war economy. It's not acting as though it is at war. It's really offering, yeah, okay, it's offering some material. There's no denying that. But it's also offering a lot of words and rhetoric that America feels it is then paying for.

14:43Camilla: Yes. Is Vance going to be there? That's the other interesting thing. So we're looking out for what people are wearing. We're looking out for which people are going to be in the room and how much prominence they're going to be given. because, again, last time at that infamous Oval Office Summit, it was really J.D. Vance who took the lead on dressing down. Why haven't you said thank you? Yeah. And so J.D. Vance has been on holiday in the Cotswolds, hanging out with Jeremy Clarkson and others, or in fact, annoying Jeremy Clarkson. No, he did not hang out with... No, wasn't there some no-fly zone and nobody could get to their farms or his diddly squat farm shop and therefore the whole thing was a nightmare?

15:15Instead, he met Tom, Thomas Skinner.

15:18Camilla: Tom Skinner, yeah, bish bash bosh. Yes, the apprentice candidate. Everyone's laughing at that, by the way, but they forget that J.D. Vance works for the boss on The Apprentice. Exactly. So it's kind of logical. Yeah, that kind of does make perfect sense. In a sense, J.D. Vance is himself an Apprentice candidate. That's quite right. So why are people laughing at him going to meet Tom Skinner, who I think put money down now, could well be mayor of London in a few years' time? Anything could happen. Anything could happen. So we have probably J.D. Vance there. after 7pm tonight, European leaders will then have a family photo.

15:53Camilla: And then after 8pm, a bilateral is going to take place. A bilateral, a meeting. Bilat. Bilat. We love that. Or I like a brush by. Are we going to meet the royals today? You can have a brush by. You can have a brush by. Oh, really? It's kind of like I get a dustpan and brush and start sweeping up around William's feet. But there's going to be a bilat with the European leaders. And that will also be interesting for optics. and let's discuss this next, Tim. Is Starmer going to be the Trump whisperer or will another European leader overshadow him?

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18:20It's worth pausing to note how European politics have changed in relation to Trump. So Trump won. Many European leaders define themselves against Trump. They are the alternative. This is why you should be in the EU, because we don't do leaders like him. Trump, too, the second administration, well, the deck has changed. Different kinds of leaders are now in charge and many of them have come to terms with Trumpism. Some have started to copy his policies on things like immigration and now the race is to be the person closest to Trump.

18:52Camilla: Yes. And to associate yourself with them regardless of your domestic politics. So Keir Starmer wants to be right in there with Trump. Macron wants to be right in there with Trump and Maloney wants to be. That's right across the political board from left to centre to right. But don't we think in our heart of hearts that the person out of that trio that Trump would get on best with is definitely Maloney. We all suspect that. Not just because of her politics, but also because she's just a straight talking woman. I mean, also Trump isn't stupid. He can surely see through the Macron and Starmer sort of smiling to his face, but privately despising him.

19:30Camilla: This whole Starmer and Trump dynamic is so fascinating. These are two men that have absolutely nothing in common. In fact, on paper, they're almost sworn enemies. Starmer, the former human rights lawyer who goes by the book, the globalist, the person who said he would rather be in Davos than in Westminster, pro-DEI, pro-huge state intervention. Whose party does things that Donald Trump, against the norm has directly criticised, be it Sadiq Khan, be it... Well, pro-Sadiq Khan, yeah. Free speech invasions. That funny exchange. Has there ever been a better exchange between a US president and a UK prime minister than that?

20:11Camilla: Hilarious. Yeah, I don't like Khan. He's a nasty man. He's a horrible, horrible person. Horrible, Sadiq Khan. Wrath of Khan, they call him. Jim. Wrath of Khan. And then Starbuckers are going, oh, actually, he's my best friend. It was like the playground bully versus the classroom nerd. Yes, yes. But who did J.D. Vance stay with when he visited England to begin with? Yes. In fact, who are the two people who J.D. Vance is closest to in England? Lamy. David Lamy and George Osborne. Although Kemi Bainock won't like you saying that. Kemi Bainock won't like you. There wasn't time in the diary for them to meet.

20:45I know. That was very strange, wasn't it? Yes. Especially given to repeat that he met Thomas Skinner. Yes, indeed. But no time to meet Kemi Bainock. But the two people who, as I say, J.D. Vance is most friendly with in this country are a socialist and a socialist. David Lamere and George Osborne.

21:04Camilla: So that's really interesting. But again, I think this speaks to him in part. So we'll discuss how does Starmer manage Trump. But one thing worth noting is Trump is a man who believes in transactions. He gets on very well with anyone if he thinks they're a straight dealer and there's a deal to be done. He's actually, of all these people, the person he's had the longest relationship with is Macron. France, I believe, was the first European country he went to when he was president. Yeah, they had that handshake off, do you remember? They wouldn't let go of each other's hands and Macron's there looking tiny.

21:37Camilla: Yeah. And it was all quite curious. And then Trump was saying remarkable things about Bridget, Macron, his wife. This is one thing that I should bring up and is now out in the public because Candace Owens has spoken about it publicly. She claims that Macron met with Trump during negotiations over Ukraine and said to Trump, you have got to ask Candace Owens to please stop saying that my wife is a man. Yes. Mon Dieu. And Candace Owens claims that the administration got in touch with Candace and said, can you please stop saying this? And that Candace refused. And so Trump then called Candace and said, can you please stop saying that?

22:18It's just don't do it. So, behind the scenes, while we're trying to negotiate the end to a war, there are all these extraordinary personal tensions.

22:29Camilla: Although the Macrons did threaten to sue Owens or sue her. They are currently suing her over that claim. I will not speculate because the one thing the Macrons have is lawyers. But my point is, and we can say it because it's out in the open now, the point is there are tensions between supporters of the administration and the Macrons. Nonetheless, broadly speaking, Trump gets on well with people. The one person he didn't get on well with was Zelensky. And that's because Zelensky didn't handle him correctly, which is where Keir Starmer comes in. So first of all, why is Starmer getting on well with Trump?

23:02I think that's a reflection of Starmer's personality. He is not an imaginative politician. He's not a particularly principled politician. He will deal with whoever he needs to deal with in order to keep the transatlantic relationship afloat. So in that sense, I think Starmer is capable, chameleon-like, of adjusting himself. Also, he's not like a charisma sponge, is he?

23:21Camilla: No. I mean, Trump can always be the character in the room versus Starmer. We saw that at the extraordinary press conference at Turnberry, where Starmer was basically mute and invisible for 90 minutes while Trump answered every question posed to him by journalists, reveling in it. Yes. Starmer doesn't like journalists. Starmer's happy to step back and let him do that, but he doesn't even want to be there. No, he's like not a main character. Yes. And that's fine. You know, Starmer, if he was involved in the school play, would be on the lighting. I know, he'd be thrilled. Exactly. He'd be absolutely thrilled.

23:53So you have that quality to him. But the other thing is, Starmer, who is increasingly, it feels, bored of domestic politics, sees the international stage as a place in which he can get things done. That's his whole thing. That was the point of his remark about I prefer Davos to Westminster because Davos is a place where things happen. And so he now sees himself as a facilitator. Yes. So this is why he is actually important to the summit. We have to give him credit for this. He worked out there is a rift between Trump and Ukraine. The rest of the European leaders are just so like a panto dame, offended, offended by what's going on, whereas he's actually going to play a constructive role and bring them together.

24:29So Ben Riley-Smith wrote a brilliant piece of The Telegraph for us today about how Starmer has become the Trump whisperer and how he has coached Zelensky for his next meeting. And what is it that he has been telling Zelensky things to do? Praise Trump in public? Flatter him? Because once you're behind closed doors, then you can have the row, then you can have the argument, but in public, beef him up. Do not, this is very important, do not try to bounce Trump publicly into taking new positions. This is why the Oval Office meeting went wrong, the first one. Zelensky did what he always does when he meets someone in public because he tries to speak over their head to the audience at home in order to embarrass them around to his position.

25:10So whatever that person just offered him in negotiations, Zelensky will turn to the cameras and say, my people are dying, send more money. And because there's this outcry, that person will then feel they have to do that. Doesn't work with Trump. Don't put him on the spot. Just flatter him and big him up. And then in private, you can do the deal. You can do the negotiation.

25:30Camilla: This is reminding me. There's a direct parallel between Starmer's advice to Zelensky and how Super Nanny used to tell parents how to deal with tantruming toddlers back in the 90s and noughties. Yes. Do not expose them publicly. Yes. Say to them very privately, they're it. We need to deal with this when we get home. Yes. Do not, you know, let their ego explode in the supermarket. Just manage it, get them home, put them on the naughty step. Yes. Interesting. Also, poor old Emmanuel Macron. Five minutes ago, he's on a surfboard. Looking, can I say this, strangely sexy, actually. Oh, you think? Well, I think it was because he was on an elevated position because the surfboard in the photograph was like in the air.

26:15Camilla: Yes. And he looked quite strong and somebody was talking about him being a cool granddad. I know, but if there were a fish next to him for size comparison. Yes, a tiny goldfish. Like a cod or a halibut, you'd realise how small he actually is. Yeah, if there was an orca whale, he would be just a speck. Europe at the moment is governed by little people. I don't know why this is, but Trump is quite a tall person. But if you look at the cast of characters we're dealing with here, Starmer, Maloney, she is like three foot tall. Macron, Zelensky, Putin. Yes, tiny. What is it with Europe? I also think it is because Trump is the human manifestation of the honey monster.

26:53Right.

26:53Camilla: And just looks big. Yeah, right. Because the hair is about half a foot tall. Yes. So that's it. And also just the colour of him. He just dominates, doesn't he? Just kind of like any kind of imagery. He's there looming over proceedings. What's a good outcome then for today? Because Trump's said on Truth Social overnight the following. President Zelensky of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. So this is very much putting the ball in Zelensky's court and saying, I mean, this is hard, isn't it? It's been likened at the weekend to Zelensky's head being put in a vice.

27:35Camilla: You either concede to a territorial giveaway or you're going to be blamed for being a warmongerer, which is the definition of a rock and a hard place, isn't it? Having said that, there is some way of Europe making Moscow out to be the difficult one. And that's if Europe calls for a three-way summit between Zelensky, Trump and Putin, which Zelensky will definitely agree to. And if Putin disagrees, they could then make him out to be the one that is blocking peace. Yes. Yes. No, I think that's absolutely right. There are two ways of reading this. One is that Trump does not hate Ukraine. He's just trying to create the conditions under which Putin will be obliged to stop fighting because he's been offered so much.

28:25And the Ukrainians have said the right things that if we reach that point and Putin continues, then it is on him. So it's partly about creating those conditions. Or you can read it, which others prefer, that actually Trump just dislikes Zelensky. And the administration does see Zelensky as the problem. They have believed from day one that the conflict, first of all, the conflict was avoidable, that it happened because Biden was in office. So they see it as a Democrat problem they have inherited. They want to bring it to a close. They don't believe Ukraine can win. They think it is losing. they believe inaccurately that America is directly bankrolling it.

29:06Actually, you know, it makes a lot of money for America out of arms purchases, etc. But that's the way they see it. That's their understanding of it. And because Trump is used to having these direct conversations, polite conversations with leaders, he likes dealing with big power people like Xi or Putin, they believe a deal can be struck. And the problem is Zelensky, because he is the person who's holding out. And they think he's holding out now in order to stay in power. They don't think he's fighting for his people. They think he's corrupt. And he's holding on because he knows that as soon as the war ends, he's going to lose his position.

29:39And the Europeans have worked this out. And they also know how weak they are. They know how little they've put into it. They know they depend on America. So their historic role now is to persuade Trump that actually Zelensky is not so bad, while also persuading Zelensky to make the concessions that will make Trump happy. So there are all these different pieces fired by all these different motivations. Ultimately, this is about trying to bring this thing to a conclusion in a way that guarantees Ukraine's long-term security, which is why I come back to everyone took the mick out of the summit. But if, as we reported, it is correct that Trump put to Putin that Ukraine would be protected by NATO without being in agreement, were protected by NATO, and Putin conceded that.

30:24That, to me, is the best Ukraine can get at this moment in time. And it's a pretty good deal that Trump's negotiated.

30:31Camilla: And if the European leaders help with some pushback against the giveaway of the entire Donbass region. Yes, yes. Although there are Benny Hawks who will be saying, you know, he can't get away with taking Crimea. Crimea is gone. Crimea, yeah, okay. But that was a position that the European leaders took two years, two, three years ago. That was the Boris Johnson position, every single bit of Ukrainian land back. But we forget, we mustn't forget Crimea was lost in 2014. It is ethnically Russian. There is a much better historical case for Russia controlling Crimea, which was added onto the Ukrainian SSR by the Soviets.

31:11So it is very hard to argue that people should continue to die and the world should continue to spend money in order to hand back something to Ukraine. which Ukraine has less of a claim over.

31:24Camilla: OK, so a little later, our sister podcast, Ukraine The Latest, will be dropping a bonus episode. So once all of the meetings have taken place, the whole thing has played out this evening, our time in Washington. We're going to be hearing from our resident Ukraine experts, Francis Durnley and Dom Nichols, who are going to pick through every single detail of what we know by tonight. And then tomorrow, of course, we'll be returning 5pm with more analysis.

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