Delusional Starmer doubles down as Burnham backpedals on Brexit

0:02The Telegraph.

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1:15It's the most important by-election either of us can remember. Makerfield gets to pick up PM. Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting are already tearing lumps out of each other over the EU and Keir Starmer, as ever, is digging in. As Reform's Mac Goodwin tells us, it is a gift from heaven for Nigel Farage. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Camilla Tomini. And me, Tim Stanley.

1:51Tim, I've finally emerged from my anaesthetic-induced fog. I had a tricky weekend. I tried to play tennis on Saturday. It went very badly wrong. At one point between sets, I wondered if I could just lie down on the court. My opponent was like, are you all right? I said, I think I'm still suffering the effects of very serious fentanyl drugs. Yes. Tried to get through my GB News show, went OK, then had to rest again. And today I feel back to normal. Right. When you were doing the show, did you think you sounded like Oscar Wilde? I think I did. Full of wit and wisdom and actually on air it was la la la la la la la.

2:25I think I was just slurring and talking complete nonsense. Some might say no change there. And you've revealed in your column that you've made a little discovery about your furry friend Bertie. My dog is deaf and I was mortified because I hadn't noticed. I think his hearing has been declining for about six months and the penny dropped a few nights ago when I came home and walked in the front room and he just didn't know I was there. So I did some tests, some clinical trials, which include waving his box of biscuits behind his ear and he didn't respond. And the next day I took him to the lovely people who look after him when I'm at work and I said, I'm concerned that Bertie's hearing is going.

3:04And they said, oh, he's deaf. Didn't you know? They thought I knew. And they said, don't worry, he's absolutely fine. And it's true. I've been to a vet. I've got an official diagnosis. I'm learning sign language for let go of the sock. Love that. And I've just spent the weekend adjusting my behaviour. And I now realise what things I was doing wrong, i.e. shouting at him, shouting sit from another room. and it's quite simple. You now just have to be within visual range and you just have to point when you do things and he responds really well. He's always been what they call a shadow dog. He's always followed me around everywhere I go and I think because he reads me very well, it's not a problem and he seems really happy.

3:49But I am wondering if I can squeeze some money out of this. A carer's allowance, a motability card. At the very least, I should get good parking at Waitrose because I've got a deaf dog. Or like just a cut price access to, for instance, the Tower of London. My dog is disabled, therefore. Well, shall we move on to the very weighty matters of state that are the Burnham-Street-ing-Starma axis? I think we are facing one of the most significant by-elections of my lifetime. Mic drop. If not the most important. Because how often do people vote not just to send a message, but to send a man to number 10?

4:30Yes. And those are the stakes. Think how Keir Starmer looks at this. If Andy Burnham loses, he can keep his job. Yeah. Well, can he? Then streaking challenges with others. But if Andy Burnham wins the official Labour candidate, he is toast. So he's got to judge how he plays this. And of course, he has, as we speak this morning, he's spoken to Labour staff and he said, I'm carrying on with the job, I'm absolutely clear about that. I do want to fight the next election. Obviously I recognise that after the local election results, the elections in Wales and Scotland as well, that the first task is obviously turning things around and making sure that my focus is in the right place.

5:15The last 10 days there's been a lot of activity which hasn't been as focused in my view as it should have been and I remind myself every day that I was elected into office to serve the people, to serve the country. That's what I believe in and that's what I'll be getting on with. He's carrying on with the job and he will back whoever the Labour candidate is. But this is a vote not just for Andy Burnham. It's against Keir Starmer and to replace him with Andy Burnham. Yes, and it makes it a curious vote for the left in Makerfield because you could want to eject the Prime Minister at all costs and therefore vote for Burnham.

5:57But you might be an old Labour lefty in that constituency that voted 66 % for Leave, not wanting to support Burnham because Burnham is now flirting with re-entry into the EU. OK, we'll get on to this. He hasn't gone as far as streeting. But let's be honest, we know where Burnham's allegiances lie when it comes to Brussels, and that's in bed with them. Yes. For political expediency right now, he's distancing himself from previous comments where he basically said, in a manner of speaking, that the referendum should be reversed. Yes. He's been out-referendumed by West Streeting saying, absolutely, Brexit was a mistake and we must do everything to stop it.

6:37And we can talk about Streeting's motivations in a minute. But Burnham's got this really difficult juggling act now because he wants to capture both Labour rights that don't like Starmer, but also Labour rights that don't like Remain. Yes. And that's quite hard, isn't it? That's like Boris Johnson level of juggling red wall and blue wall. So it's a by-election that decides who is Prime Minister. It's a by-election that decides the future of reform because reform has established itself as the opposition. And if it can win anywhere, it is in Makerfield, somewhere where it swept the local elections, where it's polling well in advance against a generic Labour candidate.

7:15Yeah, so it won eight wards at the local elections. Red wall, working class, almost entirely white. This has reform written all over it. So reform needs to win this to show that those are their people. They've got a lock on their constituency. The Tories are dead in the water. Reform is the future. And my golly, if they can beat Andy Burnham, the so-called king of the north, that proves that the wind is behind their sails. But it's important for the prime minister, important for reform. It's also important for the future of the left. because left-wing commentators are looking at Makerfield and saying, if Burnham can beat reform, then that means Labour has a path back to getting re-elected.

7:57Yes. Can Burnham do two things? One, monopolize the left-wing vote, squeeze the Greens so he reconsolidates, brings the left back into the Labour Party. But can he also appeal to enough reform supporters to prove that his kind of politics, Manchesterism, which is a kind of municipal socialism, switching back to the left, can also beat reform. Yes. That's why everyone's focused on this, because it's about not just selecting the current prime minister, but who will be the prime minister in 10 years' time. Also, isn't it about him saying, can I, as a personality that is much more popular and more charismatic than Keir Starmer, brackets, it's not that hard, Andy.

8:40It's not that hard. And it's a competition between Ronsil and some other brand of wood varnish, right? I mean, I've been watching Burnham all weekend. He went out jogging in his shorts, show a bit of leg, far too short, his short shorts. And I've been watching a lot of interviews and things. And I'm struck by one. I can see his passion for Manchester. Yes. That's great. There was an infamous interview about 10 years ago when he was running for leadership for the second time at that time. And he said, people are sick of Westminster insiders. And the interviewer said to him, you are a Westminster insider.

9:13You went to Cambridge. You're a spad. You've then done nothing else but be in Parliament. So he went away and became elected Manchester mayor in 2017. And you can see in interviews his genuine passion for Manchester. And I spoke to a friend who lives in Manchester over the weekend, a right winger. And he said, everyone I know says I'm voting for Burnham. And he said, part of the appeal is subtly conservative. It's this sense that he's a pragmatic person. He believes in public-private partnerships. He's not mad. He's not one of the green people. He's just about making sure that the trams run on time.

9:45But having said that, does that scale up to the rest of the country? What are his policies on immigration? In a speech in Leeds, which sounded very much like Andy Burnham's personal manifesto, he said the country had been run badly for 40 years, even though he was part of the government in that time and pledged not to reopen the EU debate. I'm not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it's going to undermine everything I've said about strengthening democracy if we don't respect that vote. He has in the past said, I'll be honest, I want to be back in the EU, but now he's slightly pulled back on that because if nothing else that ain't going to happen within this parliament.

10:26You wouldn't be able to do it without a second referendum. So what does he think about the marches that took place this weekend? What does he think about free speech issues? What does he think about Donald Trump? What does he think about the war in Iran? But also that personality, does that work outside of Mare? Because it's a very dry, it's almost the charisma of zero charisma. Yes. The appeal is he's not flashy. He's perfectly ordinary, never wears a tie, a bit like Starmer. Well, we also need to be cognizant of the fact that Andy Burnham lost the Labour leadership. to Jeremy Corbyn. Yes. What does that say?

11:00And perhaps to say he's pragmatic is a compliment. You could also say that he's grounded in absolutely nothing. Yes. That nobody can work out the answers to any of the questions you've just posed. I think he's vague to the point of Zen. And I think he is a nostalgic candidate. In the same way, you know, Nigel Farage is nostalgia for the 1970s and 80s in a weird way. Burnham is nostalgia for the 1990s. A lot of it is about when Manchester was great, the music scene, Everton. He's Catholic. I don't think he's believing himself, but he is. Sure. Right. But he is a Catholic. All that sort of stuff.

11:35Moderately good looking compared to the average Labour MP. Right. OK. But then it is interesting, the personality factor in all this, because polling from Servations suggests that if it was just any other Labour candidate versus reform, reform would be likely to take the seat on 53 percent compared to Labour's 27. Yes. However, if it's the great eyelashed one of Short Short's fame, then those odds tighten considerably. And the pollsters favour Labour 45 % to Reforms 42%. So this whole Manc celebrity factor is a thing. It is significant. And as we know, I mean, I don't know how... Might not be such a thing in outer Manchester.

12:19Well, possibly not. Also, by the way, it's Wigan. Yeah. Some people have pointed out this isn't his heartland in the sense that he has often been criticised for favouring the city centre over the outskirts. And many have said, look, he's been great at introducing trendy cafe culture to the city and the Salford Quays development in the BBC. But that's resulted in high rises, high rents, local people forced out, young people can't afford to get on the housing. Bromley is not Vauxhall. No, quite. Right. North West London is not Islington. Right. And there is a temptation with the King of the North stuff, which really irritates me.

12:57But there is a temptation with that to say the whole North is one all-encompassing cliché. Yeah. That the mayor of Manchester can speak for Newcastle, for Liverpool. Yeah, that's right. Just because he's in a bucket hat and says, mad for it. Right. You see my point about scaling up that personal appeal. Having said that, we did Vox Pops in the constituency on Friday. and I think we found one person who was going to vote against him. Even people who said, I can't stand Labour anymore, I've not voted, or even people who said, I'm a lifelong Tory, they all said, but I'd probably vote for Andy Burnham.

13:32He is very popular and we have to be realistic about that. I would say right now I'd put money on Burnham will win this seat. Would you? Oh, yeah. I might take that bet, actually. Okay. I won't put money because I don't gamble, but I will bet you... You're far too Christian to gamble. Can you bet me a packet of chocolate hobnobs? There you go. I'll bet you a packet of chocolate hobnobs, which you won't eat because you're too thin. I know. Well, I'm off chocolate and carbs. I'm too Christian to gamble. I'm too thin to eat. You're too thin to eat the prize, the winnings. OK. Well, we'll settle on something.

14:04Maybe you could get me some high-protein chicken in some kind of dish. But also, in Makerfield, who doesn't want to vote for a prime minister? Everyone's saying, don't they want a local candidate? No. No one wants a local candidate. There's another. You want a prime minister to be your MP. OK, but there's an alternative narrative to all this, and it was actually pointed out by Paul, a listener and a viewer of this podcast, saying, don't you also think that quite a few voters will turn around and say, what the hell do you think you're playing at? We are in a farce right now. We're in the farce that was Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy on my GB News show yesterday, who had gone out in Makerfield to campaign for Andy Burnham, pretending that she wasn't campaigning for him to be the next prime minister.

14:46Yes. even though we know that they're besties. And also she's uncomfortable with the EU stuff too. Yeah, exactly, right? So you've got her being critical of the EU stuff and that's intended as a barb against Streeting because Streeting's the one who's gone fully throatedly Remain. You know, he's the one who's with that prospect crowd, with the membership. He's appealing to the membership. Obviously, Burnham's having to appeal to the constituency. And by the way, I wouldn't put it past Streeting to have said all that so that via osmosis it gets to the good people of Makerfield that in general the Labour candidates vying for Starmer's job are all Romaniacs.

15:24Therefore be very careful how you vote in this by-election because, of course, where Burnham falters, Streeting could succeed. Because if he doesn't make it to Westminster, he's out of the race and then Streeting's facing off whom? Miliband and Rayner who have both got their own optical problems. Streeting might, I mean, by some miracle, but of course we've got to consider the membership, However, this whole misnomer that the membership is overwhelmingly left wing, there was an interesting piece in the Observer saying how that membership has changed since the Corbyn era, where there were over half a million members.

15:57Now that number's down to about 250 ,000. There was a poll in the Mail on Sunday. When asked, and this is Labour members, who would you like to be the next prime minister? 36 % said Andy Burnham. 36 % said Keir Starmer. the percentage of Labour members who were voting for the other candidates was in single digits. So this whole membership, and by the way... But that doesn't surprise me. I mean, Boris was controversial within the Conservative Party. But one reason why Liz Truss won the leadership election was because she got a lot of votes from those Conservatives who were angry, like that 36 % for Keir Starmer, with Boris Johnson having lost the job.

16:40And it makes perfect sense, does it not, that if you have joined the party in the last few years, you're probably a supporter of Keir Starmer. Yes. And the union vote is critical as well. We know the unions have backed away from Keir Starmer. We know the unions will probably favour Burnham and Rainer over Streeting because Streeting's taken on the junior doctors. But bear with me here. The unions do not like Ed Miliband. They hate him. And he's yet to make a pitch to them. Union people were coming up to us at the Labour Party conference. I remember a number of union barons, if you can still call them that, it's a bit 1980s.

17:16It's because I was watching Rivals at the weekend that I am. Living in a world of hairspray and blue mascara. They came up to me and were absolutely slagging off Miliband and what he's doing to the North Sea. So they're not going to be backing him as the next chancellor. No way. So then how do they exercise their vote in any two candidates against each other election down south? There's quite a lot to play for here. You do also have, I have a wall with photographs of sane Labour MPs on. Do you? It's got very few. You're not one of these people that like you open a couple of doors and you've got like different pieces of newspaper and like pieces of string.

17:54And then you're like, oh my God, Tim Stanley's a serial killer. But I am building a little wall of sane Labour MPs. And it's a very little wall. Who's in it? Well, Shabana Mahmood would be in it. Yeah. But I think Jonathan Hinder's in it too. Yeah, he shouldn't be in the Labour Party, should he? You're in the wrong party, Jonathan. I'm sorry, you really are. And Lord Glassman. Because what he gets that Labour doesn't get is Labour, which according to another poll, the membership, 87 % would like to be in the EU. 87%. If anything, Labour is now a Remainer party. But what they don't understand is the Brexit vote is not just about trade or numbers or figures.

18:28It's become a sort of cultural signifier. A signifier of whose side are you generally on? Yeah. And what do you think about the establishment? and 10 years later to say now I'm a Brexiteer really is shorthand for I want self-government, I think immigration's out of control, and I feel the elite have screwed me over in the last 10, 10 years and tried to stop me from doing what I want to do. It's not just as... So people like West Street and they just think, don't you want to be back in? Look at the numbers, look at the trade barrier. Don't be back in right now. Let's go back in. You're up against a large number of people who would just go, you're repeating the mistakes of the last 10 years of trying to tell me that I don't know what I want and trying to overturn what I voted for.

19:11This is the Glassman argument and he made it really well yesterday. So this is the blue Labour peer that backs Mahmood over anyone. And he is a socialist, but he puts it down to this is not a war being waged over right and left anymore. It's about the sovereigntists versus the globalists. Jonathan Hinder is in favor of greater public control of the economy. He is not right-wing labor. West Streeting is right-wing labor. He's the kind of sell the NHS off on eBay kind of labor, the progress crowd. People like Glassman and Hinder are actually in favor of more industrial strategy, more public control.

19:49But they are pro-Brexit for this because they've read it correctly. And Hinder represents a kind of a red wall, could go Tory or now reform sort of seat. And it is true, John Curtis argues, that if you look at the local elections, what happened is Labour lost because their vote went to the Greens. And that allowed the reform who have gained from the Tories to beat them, just about. So there is an argument within Labour of saying the real problem remains a divided left, not that we're not appealing to the right. But there are, even if the vote that's gone from Labour to reform is small, it is enough to cost people like Jonathan Hinder their seats.

20:30Yeah. But also when you think about the Sovereignist versus the globalist Davos crowd, of which Starmer is lanyard wearer in chief. Look at my Davos pass. In fact, he's the kind of man that keeps and frames his Davos passes, probably puts them up on the wall, right? If you're in that sovereignty, I don't think you should underestimate sort of old Labour or some lefties embarrassment at the notion that we would go crawling back to Brussels. Yeah. It's just a basic thing that many, many people left and right will think this is thoroughly un-British. We're not going cap in hand to Brussels to then frankly have to kowtow to all sort of being rule takers, not rule makers.

21:12Oh, by the way, while we're at it, you have to use the euro. We will look absurd. We'd look absurd. From the point of view of whoever is the next prime minister, it'll be great. You'll get to sit in French drawing rooms with Louis Kahn's furniture and discuss progress and gay rights, and we're going to bring down trade barriers, and you'll think it looks great. From the outside, it'll look appalling. It'll look like what it is, which is Britain begging, like it had to do in the 60s and 70s, to be allowed into the European tent. Also, it'll be a different European tent, won't it? Because Le Pen may win.

21:43It'll contain some neo-fascists. What's going to happen in Germany? And what, the next British Prime Minister thinks he's going to lead a coalition of the willing with some of these new incumbents? Yeah. What are they thinking, Tim? They're not thinking. Well, what are they thinking? We're trying to figure out now what's going through Keir Starmer's head. People have to understand that there is a kind of a fog of war taking place. And through that fog, you get little glimpses of action. Someone will insist for days that they're not going anywhere and then suddenly they'll resign. And there's a flurry to understand the motivation.

22:17And what we have to rely upon is reports from the lobby, which are very often sourced from one or two individuals. So people will build a narrative around what's going on in the Labour camp based upon speaking to one person. So right now it was reported in the mail over the weekend that Keir Starmer has a timetable to go. that after his week from hell, he retreated to Chequers and he spoke to his people and he is torn because if he announces a timetable now, well, Burnham could lose that by-election. Yes. Then there's no need for a timetable. No. On the other hand, if Keir Starmer waits to announce a timetable and Andy Burnham wins the by-election, it's going to look like Burnham is pushing him out.

23:03So for the sake of his own dignity, He has a timetable in mind, but it's a question of when he announces it. Now, that could all be true. But as I say, that will be based upon maybe one person with a perspective of what's happening. It could also not be true. And if you look at it, if you just study what Keir Starmer has actually done, throughout this race, he has just sat tight. Yeah. That's what he did at the historic cabinet meeting last Tuesday when people turned up expecting to discuss the leadership for several hours. Instead, he just said at the beginning of the meeting, I'm not talking about this today and I'll see you in my own time.

23:42Yeah, he's just digging in because that's his character. And Carl Turner spoke to this last week. He is stubborn. Yeah. OK, he is unmovable at times. Yes. He is thick skinned. Yes. Because he doesn't have that much of a personality. So he kind of doesn't engage in the tea room. Yeah, but you know these people are kind of oblivious to criticism of them. Yes. He also feels he's kind of guided by something higher than petty politics. He was elected prime minister. And if you don't mind, I am going to do what I was elected to do for as long as I possibly can. Yes. Because that's what it says in the rule book.

24:15Yes. And he and his people, again, this is based upon what we get out of the lobby, now hate West Streeting. Yeah. Well, I wonder if Streeting's actually messed this all up. Yeah. Because he didn't have the numbers. What's the first rule of politics? Learn how to count. Right. And the theory was that of anyone who Keir Starmer would want to succeed him, it would be Wes Streeting, an ally of Morgan McSweeney from the moderate wing of the party. Well, I don't know whether this has been briefed by somebody who is anti-streeting, but right now the Telegraph has just gone live with an exclusive story saying that Wes Streeting, before he left the health department, decided that we should have a pilot to allow doctors to deliver millions of virtual hospital appointments at their convenience.

25:03What we're talking about here, Tim, is we've already had it with GPs and a remote service. We're now going to have hospital doctors working from home. For which they will be paid. Right. They have a chance to boost their earnings while working from home. They will benefit from, offering a small amount of additional time to seeing more patients in a way that is convenient and attractive for them, i.e. the doctors. But don't you think this is extraordinary that this virtual hospital is being piloted on gynecology, urology, gastroenterology and ophthalmology? The most intimate parts of the body, which if you want to understand what's going on, you have to be there in person.

25:47You really do have to be physically examined, I would imagine in any of those medical fields. Yes. I'm sorry, this is, nothing annoys me more, frankly, as a GP's daughter, retired GP, than the absolute contempt in which patients are held these days in the UK. You can't get into your doctor's surgery and now it's being suggested that you can't even get into hospital once referred to see someone face-to-face. Can I just make the very simple point? Doesn't matter what happened with COVID or the advance of technology, doctors and nurses have one job. It's to physically see and examine and diagnose patients.

26:29This is terrible. There are some appointments where theoretically perhaps you don't physically need to be there, for instance, when being given results. But then, of course, it could be the case that you want to say to the doctor while being given the results, well, can you have another look? Or something else has come up. What are we moving towards? Cancer diagnosis by NHS app? Have we literally become that debased that that's what this amounts to, that everything can be? I always speak up on this because I think you and I, it's fine. We have a throat infection. We want an online appointment through our private health or whatever.

27:03We can see someone down the line. Don't have private health. Carry on. I know, but that's mad and we have discussed it because it is offered by this employer. We see someone, we can get it sorted. Yes. For an 88-year-old with complex medical needs that is constantly being referred onto a phone, laptop or computer and doesn't know how to operate that system, who has paid tax and national insurance their whole working lives, I'm sorry, I consider it to be a complete and utter insult and aberration. Well, and also I once accompanied my mother to a hospital appointment to receive a diagnosis and there were several doctors present and she couldn't understand any of them because they were foreign born and I had to act as translator.

27:47Which is tricky. And I know that the standards have changed in the NHS. Theoretically now you need to have a very high standard of English, but it's to do with accent and the ability of an elderly patient to follow and understand an accent they're unfamiliar with. Imagine that scenario down the phone. Yes. I'd rather not imagine it, honestly. Well, that story is live on our website now and we'll link it to the show notes. Coming up next, we're going to speak to Matt Goodwin, The reform party wannabe MP that lost Gorton and Denton, but has got some great insight into how Makerfield might play out.

28:54We'll see you next time. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search X-E-R-O for your free trial. Conditions apply.

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29:46Matt Goodwin, good to see you. Good to see you. Tim and I have been analysing the seismic nature of this by-election. Are we overstating it or is this basically a precursor to the general election and the local election that's going to map out the electoral map for years to come? No, I think it's massive. I think this is an absolutely enormous political battle because it's going to tell us many things. It's going to tell us firstly just how much of a threat Reform UK really is to the Labour Party in its heartlands. We've had the local elections which have shown that actually reform is now a serious proposition across the heartlands.

30:23But I think this will entrench that. And I think fundamentally it's going to tell us the future direction of the Labour Party, which from my perspective is now teetering on making, from the Labour Party's perspective, a catastrophic decision. It is clearly deciding that it wants to be a political party for pro-EU, pro-immigration, progressive activists, not a political party for the country. That's what we can see with the Andy Burnham and West Streeting positions. They both want to rejoin the European Union. And that's what we see with Angela Rayner's positioning as well, being very pro-immigration and critical of those who have called to control immigration like Shabana Mahmood.

31:03The Labour Party is basically teetering on becoming a sort of self-indulgent, self-absorbed, amateurish political party that really has no serious interest in its heartlands. And I think if reform storm Makerfield, which I think is likely given what we've seen in that area in the local elections, what we've seen in that area in previous elections, then that really will introduce a very big question for the Labour Party, which is, is it even a national political party anymore? Is it a serious political party? But Matt, your party does face a potential hurdle here, which is that according to the few polls we have, if Labour selected any ordinary candidate, reform would win this seat very easily.

31:51But with Burnham in the running, it's close and you might even lose. Now, if you lose this seat on the basis of Andy Burnham being the mayor of Manchester and from the early vox pops we've done in the constituency, he's very popular. He just comes across to most people like a decent local bloke. If he wins this seat on the back of his exceptional personality, but while saying, I want to rejoin the EU, you know that the very next day, everyone's going to say, Brexit's over. The people of Makerfield, a leave-leaning seat, have just voted for someone who wants to go back into the EU. Reform's moment has passed.

32:28I'm not sure how we could say that after 3.8 million people just voted for Reform UK at the elections in England, Wales and Scotland. Reform did just finish first in England, second in Wales and joint second in Scotland. So the idea that a pro-Brexit anti-mass migration party is somehow entering a cul-de-sac, I don't think that would be borne out by the result. But let me just give you my view on the Burnham factor. And I'm happy to be wrong on this. And I'm saying this as someone that's knocked on 7 ,000 doors in Gorton and Denton. I know the Manchester landscape pretty well. I do not believe that Andy Burnham is as popular as Andy Burnham and many people in London think he is.

33:10Andy Burnham, especially in outer Manchester, where Makerfield is, he is seen as somebody who has often prioritised inner Manchester at the expense of the outer boroughs. Nobody yet has picked up on this, but it's an important point. His positioning at this by-election is going to be all over the place. He wants to rejoin the European Union, but not right now. He's asking people to vote for Labour in areas that have been absolutely decimated by mass migration. And by the way, in Wigan and the surrounding area, HMOs, housing for multiple occupants. It's an enormous issue in those areas. Illegal migrants being prioritised over the hardworking majority in the housing sector.

33:49Reform will undoubtedly target that issue. And I think more generally, Andy Burnham is sort of, he's now projecting himself, I think, as being about Andy Burnham, that Makerfield is becoming a stepping stone in his quest to become prime minister rather than the by-election in Makerfield being about putting the people of Makerfield first. Now, I've no doubt Reform UK and whoever the candidate is will go in there and say this is about putting Makerfield first, not Andy Burnham. Well, let's talk about your candidate, because there's two ways you could go. You could try and find an equally famous Manc.

34:28I don't know what the Gallagher brothers are doing right now. Maybe some retired Manchester United or Manchester City star. Maybe Gary Neville. Maybe Gary Neville. I'm not sure if he's on your side of the fence, Matt Goodwin. So you could go down that route. Now, you could describe yourself as a celebrity candidate in the sense that you have a presence on GB News. You're well known nationally in certain circles and it didn't work out for you because perhaps you weren't considered local enough. The alternative is to revert back to Robert Kenyon, who fought the seat for reform in 2024. This guy's a plumber.

35:01He's got a good backstory, unlike Burnham. He used to be in the army, worked in the NHS. Exactly. He's had a job outside politics. And actually, that degree of localism could outburn and burn them. So the first thing to say, not to relive past battles, but Gorton and Denton, we did defeat Labour in Greater Manchester, which was an enormous achievement. And of course, at the local elections, what many people have missed is that Reform UK went on based on that and they absolutely decimated Labour across Tameside. every single seat but one in Angela Rayner's backyard just went Reform UK. Now, we're told repeatedly that Angela Rayner understands the working people of this country.

35:40Well, actually, if she turned around and looked at what's just happened in her own backyard, like Lisa Nandy in Wigan, every single seat but one has just gone Reform UK. I suspect what Reform will do is go for a hyper-local candidate from the area who has a history of political activism, has stood at previous elections. I know a number of the people being considered. I think they're very solid, grounded, hardworking, patriotic people that reflect the reform coalition, if you like. I don't think whoever they stand will be just an ex-Tory. I think you'll see reform leaning into reform because there are basically, I think, two wings.

36:23There are Tory reformers. And then there are who I would align myself with, reformers, reformers, true reformers who really understand this isn't about becoming a Tory tribute act, the kind of Tim Montgomery's of the world. This is actually about genuinely taking on the establishment and really reshaping this country. And I think reform will go for a local candidate that really reflects that to meet the Burnham factor. But they're also going to go really hard on the issues that the Labour Party has clearly got no serious interest in talking to voters about. HMOs, mass migration, respecting the vote for Brexit.

36:59And to be honest, and I do, I sort of agree with Tim to an extent. The thing about Brexit, though, to me is it's not so much about should we be in or out of Europe? At this point, it is about do you respect democracy? Do you respect popular sovereignty? Do you respect the right of people to have voted for a different constitutional settlement. So it's become about democratic legitimacy more than anything. And I suspect the people of Makerfield will say exactly what the people of Gateshead and Hartlepool and Wigan and Wakefield just said, which is we no longer recognize this radically progressive pro-EU, pro-immigration Labour Party that looks more like a student union society than a serious political party that's interested in representing the patriotic majority.

37:43I think reform has managed to monopolize a vibe of people who feel left behind and ignored by Westminster. And what Burnham is trying to do is tap into that. He is trying to send you and he's actually said it. This is about making politics local again. It's about moving Labour back to what it used to be when people felt more comfortable with that brand, when it was more kind of culturally familiar, if not quite conservative. and the irony is that if he does win this seat, and it's on a knife edge, but if he did win this seat, it's almost a trap for Labour because they could misinterpret his victory as a repudiation of reform when in many ways I think he's tapping in or trying to tap into some of the same dissent that reform is riding.

38:25I think that would work and I think Burnham would be stronger if we were still in a politics that was about people feeling left behind economically. The problem Burnham has and the problem the Labour Party and all centre-left parties in the West have is we know that lots of people also feel that they are being pushed aside culturally and demographically. So long as Andy Burnham doesn't want to talk about those issues, so long as he doesn't want to talk about HMOs, mass migration, cultural collapse, what's happening at the borders, also what's happening with free speech, the way his party's treating even people who are marching through London at the weekend.

39:02this sort of inability to accept the entirely legitimate views of the patriotic majority in this country he's going to constantly run into really big problems I think Burnham is popular in parts of Manchester I think that he is a he is an okay campaigner but he is not as strong as people are suggesting and I'd say again lots of people might disagree with me I was on the ground I really do not think Andy Burnham would have won Gorton and Denton because the Greens, and they're standing in Makerfield, the Greens were very strong on the economic populism. They were very strong at bringing that fight to labor from the left.

39:42But we were just as strong at really appealing to a combination of white working class, non-graduate, patriotic voters fed up of labor and the ground game that we actually mastered in Gorton and Denton. And no one has yet, I think, written a story on this. But the ground game that will now be applied to make a field, you know, the use of digital science, the use of really strong canvassing, the get out the vote operation. I think we have a tendency when we think about Nigel Farage parties to think about the UKIP days. And it was a bit it was a bit chaotic and it was a bit, you know, all over the place.

40:19But now what Nigel has led and what he's presiding over is the full blown professionalisation of an insurgent party, which is why we got nearly 30 percent in Greater Manchester and why I really do think reform will win Makerfield. I really do think that. I mean, judging by the general election results, obviously a lot has happened since then. At that point in 2024, the Greens weren't really at the races, but I agree they could gain popularity and split the vote on the left. Let's talk about the vote on the right. Now, this is not a seat that the Tories would expect to win in any stretch of the imagination.

40:53However, two years ago, they did secure nearly 5 ,000 votes. I asked Kemi Bade, not the opposition leader on my GB News show yesterday, whether they would stand aside for reform in the interests of the country. I'm not playing games, Camilla. All this game, playing and doing deals and we'll work with you. Yeah, but you don't want Burnham winning that seat. It doesn't matter whether he wins or a reformed person wins or we have Kistama. The thing that reform and Labour have in common is that they think politics is a popularity contest. What is the agenda? Well, it is. I laid out an agenda at the King's speech.

41:27I gave a speech and I said, here's what we would be doing, you know, on oil and gas, on welfare, defence investment plan, all of these things. Nigel Farage didn't even bother to speak in that debate. That's the debate where every party leader turns up. He won't turn up for work. So why does it matter which random person he picks for Makerfield? The people of Makerfield, I'm afraid to say, are the ones who are in a bad place because the only thing that this election is going to be about is Keir Starmer or Andy Burnham. Jacob Wiesmar has said that's a mistake and they should stand aside. Should they stand aside, Matt Goodwin?

42:01I don't think it really matters at this point. My theory on this by-election and the general election, what we're going to see in this country now is mass tactical voting on the right. Now, we talk about tactical voting on the left. Will Labour voters go green? will Lib Dems go Labour. Go back to Gorton and Denton. Two things that happened there. Again, few people picked up on it. The Conservatives lost their deposit. And there was a party to the right of reform that polled fewer votes than the monster raving loony party. There was mass tactical voting on the right of British politics. Fast forward to Makerfield.

42:33If you're a Conservative in Makerfield, you know, it's a wasted vote. You should vote reform to stop Andy Burnham and Labour. And if you're flirting with anything to the right of reform, you know, hands down, It is a wasted vote. The only credible, competent, coherent alternative to the establishment is reform. Now, fast forward to the next general election, and I think we're going to see that en masse. A lot of conservatives that will end up saying, look, I don't agree with reform and everything, but we cannot entertain the prospect of a coalition of complete chaos with Zach Polanski, whoever succeeds the Labour Party, the SNP.

43:06we are going to have to line up behind reform. And I think that this tactical voting on the right, which we saw on the ground in Gorton and Denton, we will now see in Makerfield, I think it is being massively underpriced in how people think about the next general election. Because also the righties might think just on a national level, if the Makerfield by-election being won by Andy Burnham results in Ed Miliband being the next chancellor, it's not for them. When Tommy Robinson spoke at the Unite the Kingdom rally, this weekend. He said, you should all go home and join a party. And it said, I don't care which one it is, Tory, reform, restore.

43:43And people started cheering Rupert Lowe. Does that not concern you? I am not a fan of Rupert Lowe and restore. I've said that publicly. I think that what is within that ecosystem is very ugly. I've seen some pretty disgusting views in and around that political party, which clearly either Rupert Lowe does not know about or is not bothered about. And I think that's for him to answer. But Rupert Lowe's candidates did do well in Great Yarmouth, and I believe they denied reform control of the council. Well, in one particular area of the country that represents 0.3 % of the country, a local MP is popular and channeled that into local council wins.

44:24But as for context, to Reform UK just contested 99.9 % of all seats in the country. To be honest, that's what saving your country looks like, which is giving everybody in this country a serious voice. Nigel Farage has made this argument time and time again for much of the last 15 years. And I used to sort of discount it. But the more I've got to know him, the more I realize it's true and it's powerful. He is a firewall in this country against some very dark things. And he is the person who is able to convince the British people to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, end the policy of mass migration, put the hardworking majority of taxpaying, law abiding British people first and for it not to become something that violates our democratic norms, that violates our civic culture, that stays within the boundaries of, let's just say, Britishness.

45:20What I see to the right of Reform UK now, particularly online, encouraged by a lot of Americans who don't have an understanding of our civic culture, is something that I don't want any part in. But it's something that I think the vast majority of British people will look at and say, I'm sorry, this is not part of who we are. And I expect that rejection will be pretty strong and unequivocal. I was very interested in something you said earlier about the risk of reform being perceived as the Tories 2.0. Explain that to us. Is there a faction within reform that wants to turn your party into just the new conservatives?

46:01Well, I think there are people in and around reform who have joined for perhaps different reasons to the reasons that I joined the party. Perhaps they're driven more by instrumental concerns. Perhaps they're driven more by a desire to have power themselves. Perhaps they're driven by the fact they think this is a route into, you know, accumulating more titles and, you know, whatever else. Are you talking about Robert Jenrick? Who are you talking about? No, I'm just making an observation, being somebody that, you know, I'm in the grassroots, I'm with the members, I'm with the activists. My view of reform has always been this is either an anti-establishment political party that is fully committed to ending mass migration, leaving the ECHR, rebuilding our economy around the British people and putting them first unequivocally and unashamedly.

46:56or this is going to become a sort of Tory tribute act that I think the vast majority of people at the grassroots want nothing to do with. And when I see former prominent conservatives in public debates and public forums criticising people who have been in reform for a long time, have been doing a lot of hard work, have been building up the local branches, that is the kind of Tory politicking that reformers don't want and they hate. Who's done that? Sorry, what are you referring to? Have some new reformers, in inverted commas, been critical of old reformers? Well, I've just seen, let's just say, Tories are known for enjoying the art of plotting.

47:41They enjoy going on podcasts, criticising one another. And reformers have very little time for that. Reformers have very little time for that. And I think a lot of people in reform did breathe a sigh of relief when the May the 7th deadline passed. Yeah. Meaning no more conservative MPs can defect to reform. And I know that a lot of people at the grassroots were really counting down to that day. Wow. But will Farage honour that? What if he gets a biggie wanting to come across? It's up to Nigel what he does. I think the challenge reform. Who's left? I was thinking that. Mel Stride? Maybe Deepatel or someone?

48:18I think the challenge reform now has, which everybody can see, and Nigel would say himself, is, you know, what we now have to do, given that we're back polling at 30 percent, which is phenomenal. We have to ensure we not only stay there, but we look for ways to add to that. So more working class Labour voters, more non-voters, what's left of the Conservative electorate. Let's get all of those groups together and let's save this country. Because I do think the other thing you hear at the grassroots, a lot of people in Britain really genuinely believe what an 82-year-old lady in the British Jewish community told me a month ago in Barnet, which is if reform does not win the general election, the next general election, reform does not win that contest.

48:57There are lots of people who will leave this country, who are actively planning to leave this country. They really do feel that it is not just about policy or even who will be prime minister necessarily. It is almost civilizational in the way that people now think about what's happening to Britain. Is this a country we are we still recognize? Is it a country where we feel at home to reference Roger Scruton? Or is it actually a country that's becoming a hotel where you don't really know who lives next door? You don't know what language they speak, what culture they cling to. Everywhere I go around the country and I do three or four events every week, people say the same thing, which is, you know, feel like the pace of change is now so great, they no longer really recognise the place they once called home.

49:42That's a dangerous place for a country to be. That's why we're so unstable and divided. It's why Keir Starmer doesn't quite understand who is pushing us down a dangerous path. And it's not Nigel Farage. It's this insane policy that is being imposed by the Tory governments and now the Labour government. We have to change course, or I think we really will end up in disaster. Can I say one thing in Nigel's defence? He's never gone jogging for votes. No, and especially not in... He's gone fishing, though. He's definitely gone fishing. He hasn't gone jogging. Not in tiny shorts. In Ozzy or Ardili's shorts from the 1980s.

50:17What's going on there? There's too much thigh. I don't want to see that much of any politician's... That came dangerously close to a testicle slip. It did. If the inside had perished, we could have seen too much. Matt Goodwin, very quickly, you're not going to have a go at Makerfield, are you? No. No, OK. You're ruling yourself. I just wanted to double check. We should have asked you. And I would not agree with the characterisation of me not being local to Manchester. I would remind people, I have my family come from Manchester. But no, this one is not for me. All right. We'll wait for the candidate announcement with great interest.

50:48Matt Goodwin, thank you very much for joining us on The Daily Tea. Thank you for having me. And we'll be back tomorrow at 5pm.

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