How long can Rachel Reeves last?

0:02The Telegraph.

0:30All season long. Shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. Wayfair, every style, every home. This message is brought to you by today's sponsor, Walden University. Set a course for change. Now is the time to make a real change in your life, career, and community. At Walden University, we give you the support and flexibility to get the W. Walden's online programs are designed for working professionals like you. You'll gain hands-on skills to take on real-world challenges and succeed. Your future is waiting and Walden is here to help you achieve it. Take the first step to make your impact. Visit waldenu.edu.

1:07Walden University. Set a course for change. Certified to operate by Shev.

1:17It is the photo on the front of almost every newspaper in Britain this morning. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, in tears at Prime Minister's questions. And she's been back out in public today alongside Sir Keir Starmer as Labour announces its plan to fix the NHS. She's been trying to put a brave face on it, but should we still be watching out for news from number 11 that maybe Rachel Ruse might be on her way? And just one year into Keir Starmer's reign, an old spectre is suddenly looming back into view. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn is threatening to start a new party as Labour starts to get attacked from the left as well as the right.

1:53The left-wing and pro-Jezza journalist Aaron Bastani will be joining us in the studio. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Gordon Rayner. And me, Tim Stanley.

2:12Well, clearly I was upset yesterday and everyone could see that. It was a personal issue and I'm not going to go into the details of that. but my job as Chancellor at 12 o 'clock on a Wednesday is to be at PMQs next to the Prime Minister supporting the government, and that's what I try to do. I guess the thing that maybe is a bit different between my job and many of your viewers is that when I'm having a tough day, it's on the telly, and most people don't have to deal with that. That is certainly true. It's said there was an altercation between you and the Speaker, or there's also a story about potentially a conversation with someone else in the government before that happened?

2:55No, no, it was a personal issue. I'm not going to go into the details of that. That wouldn't be right or fair. People saw I was upset. But that was yesterday and today is a new day and I'm just cracking on with the job. And my job as Chancellor is to return the stability to the economy. That was Rachel Reeves back from the dead with a new hairdo this morning to explain what happened yesterday. Gordon, what do you think? Has she put our fears to rest? No, I think Kevin Baden-Ock had a fair point when she said that the country has a right to know what was behind this, because this isn't just a backbench MP having a bit of a meltdown in public.

3:36It's the Chancellor. And as you said in the intro there, this did move the markets. It has caused changes to the economy. And I think that her just saying it's a personal matter isn't really good enough because people just won't believe that, Unless she explains properly, people will just think, yeah, that's just an excuse. She's had a big ride with Starmer. She's under huge pressure. She lost it. And that may not be true. But I think until people have a convincing explanation, then they're just going to assume that's the case. They're going to assume it's either untrue or it's really so awful.

4:06Something so awful is going on in her private life that she can't share it with us. But also, I just think that the dramatic change in tone that we're supposed to go along with from someone who we saw on Wednesday was having a really bad day to someone who now appears to be on cloud nine again and is back to bumping around in her Dalek-esque way. That actually makes it seem even more deranged to me. Yes, it's almost as though they're trying to pretend that nothing happened, isn't it? As you said, she came out today, she had full hair and makeup, and the contrast was so extreme. In the same way that you can't unsee her in tears once you've seen that, which is a huge problem for her, I think, because people are going to remember that for a very long time.

4:49Her then coming out the next day and being almost falsely jolly, it does almost compound it. Where were you when Rachel cried? Well, we were saying earlier, weren't we, this is, it's not quite a JFK moment, but I think people probably are around the country saying to each other, oh, you know, did you see that? And where were you when you saw it? I was actually in Cambridge about to interview a former Labour cabinet minister for the Telegraph, which will be around probably next week. And they were as shocked as anybody. And it was obviously, I was there to do an interview about something else. But inevitably, we just sort of started off by chatting about what's going on with Rachel Reeves.

5:27Yeah, I was in the press gallery. It was a normal Prime Minister's questions. And then sort of about 10 minutes in, Whisper went around, there's something wrong with the Chancellor. And of course, actually, you don't have the best view from that height. You're looking down. You might be looking at the back of her head, depending on which part. No, I was on the other side. So I did get a good look. And I thought from studying her face, and this is when, as I said in my sketch, this is when being a press journalist just feels like your visit to Bedlam. I mean, it turns you into a horrible human being because you're studying people at their lowest and trying to figure out what's wrong with them.

5:58I initially thought she was having an allergic reaction because it wasn't just that she was crying, but also that her face was very, very puffy. So I thought she was unwell. Kemi obviously spotted it as well and pointed it out. Mr Speaker, she's pointing at me. She looks absolutely miserable. Labour MPs, Labour MPs. She looks absolutely miserable. And once she had done that, regardless of what the Prime Minister said, all eyes and attention were on the Chancellor. The only person who didn't seem to notice was Keir Starmer. And he has subsequently said it's because he was so focused on doing the PMQs.

6:36I didn't appreciate what was happening because, as you'll probably appreciate, the PMQs is pretty wired. It goes from question to question. And I'm literally up, down, question, looking at who's asked me a question, thinking about my response and getting up and answering it. And so it wasn't just yesterday. No Prime Minister Everett has had side conversations during PMQs. It does happen in other debates when there's a bit more time, But in PMQs, it is bang, bang, bang. That's what it was yesterday. And therefore, I was probably the last to appreciate anything else going on in the chamber. That's just a straightforward human explanation, common sense explanation.

7:13I get that. But not only has a competency issue arisen from the possibility that your Chancellor is not emotionally entirely holding it together, but he's managed to compound it and make it much worse by turning it into a kindness and a character issue by his failure to acknowledge the obvious hurt of his Chancellor. Yeah, and also it's become a huge distraction for them, hasn't it? Because today should have been all about the NHS plan, we'll talk a bit about that in a moment, and about celebrating, dare we say, his first year in office, which is the anniversary is coming up on Saturday and that was why he was doing interviews this week.

7:53And instead, all anybody's talking about is Rachel Reeves and the tears. And when they did their NHS launch today at a clinic in East London, Rachel Reeves turned up to that as well. And so that inevitably prompted direct questions to the Prime Minister about why is she here? Is she just here to show that everything's OK? Nobody was talking about the NHS plan, which after all is one of the things which this government is going to be judged on over the next four or five years. And had so clearly been made up for the occasion. And I don't blame her for that. Whenever I'm feeling down, I always get my hair done.

8:28She has my sympathy. That's my instinct too. But again, it was just such a bizarre contrast. To just conclude, when I was in the press gallery, I think the moment for me that really brought home that something very strange and possibly historic had happened was actually at the very end of it when I could see her sister, Ellie, come down and lead her out of the chamber by the hand. And of course, markets were also watching that and had a very negative reaction. Yeah, I think the markets have largely recovered. But I think the problem is that economies, as we all know, are built on vibes effectively, aren't they?

9:03You know, they're built on trust and hopefulness and etc. And the vibe at the moment is going to be, well, is she going to be around for much longer? That's going to mean that the markets are going to be quite cautious. There's worry in the city that she may go and be replaced with somebody who is more left wing. Because obviously, if she goes, there's no point in replacing her with somebody who's exactly the same, because what's the point in her going? So if they're going to change, you know, she does have a certain amount of respect in the city for her rigidity on fiscal rules. Yes. Which is about no borrowing or less borrowing.

9:38Exactly. Not about raising taxes. Exactly. Well, so we keep being told. So it matters. and the fact that the city is thinking, is she going to go? We better wait and see rather than the norm of stability and we know what we're doing. It matters. So just to go right back to the original question, I think she is going to have to somehow let the public know what it was really about so that we can all move on from it. There are a couple of rumours floating around. One, it's not really a rumour, it seems to be substantiated, is that she had words with the speaker. Yeah. Now, this is because when she was doing Treasury questions the previous day, I wish I'd attended that one now, because she was doing questions the previous day, she had given answers that were overly long.

10:22And you're not supposed to do that in the second part of questions. You're supposed to give snappy answers. And on the third go of being told to keep it short, she expressed exasperation. And it seems the speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, told her off for that, which, by the way, he's entirely right to do. Yeah. And that's not going to make somebody burst into tears, is it? But the other theory is it comes on the back of her having had words with a member of the cabinet. And, of course, there's a lot of speculation about who that might be. And the one person who was not emotional at Prime Minister's questions was Angela Rayner.

10:53And also Starmer, which has also been suggested. He's denied that outright now, hasn't he, that that happened. As for Angela, Ice Queen. I mean, she is. I mean, just the thing in this job, people will say, as journalists, should you be taking apart someone's emotional reaction like this? Well, normally in everyday life, you wouldn't. But politics is different, right? Yeah. I don't take any delight in the fact that we're having to talk about this. And I felt quite uncomfortable seeing it. But for all the reasons we've just expressed, the fact that this does have a direct effect on the national economy.

11:27Yes. I'm afraid, you know, you can't ignore it. And I agree. When I wrote my sketch, I was very cautious about the way that I phrased it too. And I had lots of conversations with people about the best way to do this. But reading the comments, I found next to no sympathy. And part of the reason for that is because the background to all of this is the failure in the welfare bill. The Labour Party spent 14 years accusing the Tories of being heartless. And some left-wingers even accused the Tories of murdering people. Then Labour came into government and it found that it's true. There is no money.

11:57It's true. The welfare bill is out of control. So when they tried to control it, what's happened? Labor ministers are now being accused of being heartless and of killing people, even by their own backbenchers. So if one wonders what the stress is that Rachel Reeves is under, it's that she is confronting the reality of governing. And she's receiving exactly the same kind of attacks that her party's been giving to other people. And she now knows that having reversed on that welfare bill, there is now a five billion pound hole that she'll have to find somewhere. it presumably won't be the fiscal rules so it's likely to be no taxes and I'm not sure we've been told yet where the 40 billion for defense is going to come from either have we so there's an awful lot of money that she's going to have to find yes and it feels as though she has pretty much zero room for maneuver so she is she's in a really difficult place and I have a fair degree of sympathy for her in as much as the public finances are in a poor state a lot of that is the fault of previous Labour governments, frankly.

12:56We've overborrowed historically. It's not all her fault personally, but she is having to deal with it. And I'm not sure anybody in her position would be able to do much differently, given that she has been elected on a manifesto that put her into a straitjacket. Yeah. What was the 10-year NHS plan that no one now cares about? I mean, it's fascinating, isn't it? If you look at the news today, if you look at news websites, if you watch the tv news you probably won't find this enormous thing that you know we've been building up to this for weeks and you know news organizations have been trying to get information about what's in it for weeks and all of a sudden the day has come and we're not hardly talking about it because we're talking about rachel reeves in a nutshell the things that they want to do they want to tackle the problem of getting appointments with your gp and your dentist they want to get waiting lists down they want to tackle the poor outcomes for cancer and other things that we all know about and they want to tackle the poor morale among NHS staff.

13:57And the way they propose to do that, they want to shift care more from hospitals to the community, they want to shift from analogue to digital and they want to shift from sickness to prevention, all of which sounds very straightforward but it's going to be horrendously complicated in practice. Waiting lists are down, right? The plan is starting to work. Yes. The thing I found fascinating when I had a quick scan of the 10-year plan and they did this enormous survey. They got 250 ,000 responses and they seem to have gone through all of them. And what the report says is that not a single person really was defending the status quo.

14:35Every single person said, it's broken, there's a huge problem, this is what we need to do, this is what I would like to see done. So I think it's the first time, probably since the NHS was formed, that there is this sort of complete agreement across the board that it is broken and it has to be fixed and therefore quite radical things need to be done but not necessarily the way that we spend money on it or the way that the money is raised for it no because whenever we discuss fixing the nhs our instinct is always to say well let's look at the funding model but what they're doing is looking at ways of reducing pressure on it through modernization or through preventative medicine like getting people to lose weight and yes exactly so normally mental health yeah so normally labor would just chuck more money at it.

15:17That's always been the Labour way. I think that we're streeting who, you know, we've often given him a good press here because we do think that he has some good ideas. We think he's in the right space in terms of wanting to reform. And he is talking about things like shifting money from hospital care to what they call primary care, in other words, GPs. I think there has been this structural problem for a long time that GPs and surgeries are slightly underfunded. That's why people can't get appointments. And also there are ways that you can spend money more effectively by, for example, not relying on GPs to be the first point of contact for every single ailment.

15:53You know, if you've got a problem with, let's say, your mental health, then you don't really need a GP to refer you to a mental health center. You can just go to a mental health center, for example. So there are things that can be done that don't involve spending more money. You just reallocate resources. And that's what they're talking about doing. The government, of course, is spending more money on the NHS. And it's that and defense are sort of the only two departments. that are really going up. So it's staking a lot on healthcare improving, right? Yes. I mean, look, if they can crack the problems with the NHS, I think that their fortunes might start to look quite different at the moment where, you know, we've talked a lot about Labour doing terribly in the polls, all about reform.

16:36But if in four years' time, they can point to some massive successes in the NHS, then those polls might start to shift. Interestingly, this is a 10-year plan, which is kind of building in the idea that, oh, you need to elect us again in order for us to see this through. Keir Starmer was making noises today about possibly needing to be in for a third term. Oh, heavens. Not just two terms, but three terms. But, you know, look, this is politics. But he won't even commit to keeping his chancellor for one full term. Well, he's changed his mind about that as well, hasn't he? Oh, has he now committed?

17:10Yeah, yesterday he was saying, he didn't want to say that, now he is saying she will be chancellor for this parliament and beyond which almost guarantees that she will resign yeah and also the last person that i can remember talking about being in for 10 years was boris johnson he didn't stay in for 10 years i don't think did he no but of course you have to build in people's minds the idea that that's what you're aiming for because otherwise you're a dead duck so it's like tony blair in 2005 you have to say i'm going to do a full parliament because otherwise well yeah what are we voting for here of course and he does still we should remember he is still sitting on a massive majority, although he lost it effectively in the welfare debate.

17:45Look, she could survive. I don't think this is necessarily a mortal blow. She seems to have the Prime Minister's backing, regardless of whether they did have a row. He's talked about them being in lockstep. So she could carry on. I think it's largely down to her. Those images of her yesterday looked like someone who'd had enough, rather than someone who had been told, you're doing a terrible job, you have to go. And after all, if he were to get rid of her, then that puts him in a very difficult position because if you get rid of your chancellor, you're basically admitting that you're the problem.

18:18Look what happened with Liz Truss when she got rid of Kwasi. So I don't think he can afford to sack her, really. So I think it's largely down to whether she feels that she can carry on or whether it's just too much. There's not many people who would naturally replace her. One thinks perhaps of Pat McFadden, who's widely regarded as a safe pair of hands. One reason why I do have sympathy for her is Chancellor is the hardest job in government in terms of communication because it's a job in which your only face is a poker face. The chancellor cannot express any emotion basically about anything or display any character or personality because their actions are being permanently watched by the markets.

18:54And I can imagine that is a huge emotional strain on you that you can never react to events. And I can imagine a scenario under which finally something snaps and it all comes out in one go. I still think that the biggest event this week was not the crying. It was the welfare bill you turned. Because what this told us is that ultimately, Starmer cannot command his own party. They are going to have to make some tough economic decisions. And we now know the route that has closed off to them, which is cutting and showing any kind of fiscal discipline. And the crying was about Rachel Reeves. The welfare bill is about the whole government.

19:29Precisely. So, yeah, I think you're right in that. So if the left is empowered, in part two, we are going to discuss with Aaron Bastani, the founder of the left-wing Navara media website, what is the left going to do inside the Labour Party, outside the Labour Party? Is it time for a left-wing version of reform?

20:04But what if everyone's plus one brings a plus one? We'll see how extendable this extendable table really is. And extra chairs are on the way. Okay. What if there's a blizzard and everyone has to sleep over? Ready to go with extra bedding and towels. From guest-ready essentials to holiday decor you can trust, Wayfair delivers. You're a pro at running your life, at committing to your workout, at showing up every day. At Bombas, we're pros too. Pros at making socks. Our sport assortment has specialized socks for whatever sport you're committed to. Running, hiking, golf, Pilates, and so much more.

20:38Made with sweat-wicking yarns, blister-fighting details, and targeted art support. Bombas Sport is pro-level socks from the pros of socks. For another pro, you. Go to bombas.com slash audio and use code audio for 20 % off your first purchase. That's bombas.com and use code audio. There are two types of business owners. Those who are busy and those who want to be busy. Toast is designed for both, with tools to keep you humming and help turn grind into growth. That's how you turn busy into business. Toast. Built for busy.

21:17Welcome back. With an immigration crackdown and a feeble attempt at welfare reform, Labour is clearly worried about reform, and to a much lesser extent the Tory party, on the right flank. But apparently Starmer's centrist project is making no one happy. Parties to the left of Labour are making gains too, and could wipe out the party in local elections next May. Yes, the Greens are benefiting from a collapse in Labour's vote in parts of London and the South West. They unseated the shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Dubonair from Bristol West in last year's general election. And meanwhile, independent figures like Jeremy Corbyn and Tower Hamlets Mayor Lutfer Rahman, whose Aspire party is now the biggest in that London borough, could also win big.

21:59To discuss these developments, we are honoured to be joined by Aaron Bastani from the Novara Media. Aaron, Jeremy Corbyn has said on Robert Peston's ITV show that there will be an alternative to Labour at the next election. There's a lot of people all around the country in different independent groups. You look in Birmingham, look in Liverpool, look in Southport and so on. There is a thirst for an alternative view to be put. I'm working with all of those people. That grouping will come together. There will be an alternative use and there will be an alternative put there, which is about a society that deals with poverty, inequality, and a foreign policy that's based on peace rather than war.

22:37And would you like to lead that group? I'm here to work. I'm here to serve the people in the way I've always tried to do. What is this going to look like, do you think? I don't think Jeremy Corbyn knows. Oh, really? OK. I think it's a very enigmatic response. something's happening. The question is to what extent will it be centralised with an agreed programme, candidate selection, which is overseen by a permanent secretariat of some kind. We would associate that with a political party. I suspect it will be more akin to a coalition or alliance. Along the lines, you sometimes see on the continent.

23:15Between who? Who are the likely partners in this alliance? We've obviously got those MPs right now who are independents in Westminster. And then the question is, how far does that fan out? I suspect you're going to see lots of independents do very well in bits of Yorkshire, Lancashire, West Midlands, Birmingham in particular. Not just those places, it should be said. But Kirkley's council is a great example. I think, you know, you could have independents be a majority on Kirkley's council after next May. So the question is, yeah, what will the coordination be between these various people? And I still think that's very much up for grabs.

23:47We should probably make the point, as you did in one of your Telegraph columns, that every London council has elections next year, don't they? That is very much heartland for Corbynistas. So you're talking about independent MPs sort of coalescing, but a lot of those independents are people who were elected on very much a sort of single issue pro-Gaza slate. Is that a problem for Corbyn if he's trying to form some sort of left wing version of reform? Is that a non-starter if he has to sort of form a party which is going to be very largely made up of these sort of single issue people? Yes and no.

24:22I mean, I think people understate the ideological heterogeneity of reform. And also just the Brexiteer right has just encompassed a really wide range of people in terms of politics, economics and cultural views. And so I don't see why the left couldn't do something similar. But you're right that in regards to the four MPs that were elected alongside Corbyn on Gaza last year, that is primarily the issue that matters to people that voted them. Not the only issue. Some of it boils down to British foreign policy more generally, anti-austerity, etc. And I think what shouldn't be understated is the kind of the sedimentary networks from years gone by.

25:00So, yes, of course, Gaza matters. But when George Galloway came third in Batley in Spain, a lot of those voters were upset about cuts to local services, potholes, town centre itself. You know, Batley, people might not know this, it was the bed capital of Britain. You know, this was like a manufacturing of beds in Batley was a major thing. A lot of those jobs have been lost to overseas. So, you know, it's a real range of reasons. And of course, a very talented politician can capture all these things. But I think it would be dishonest to say that, yes, the primary issue is Gaza and British foreign policy more generally.

25:38I think the$64 million question is that project will live and die on the extent to which it can connect. And I think this is true personally. It can connect failed foreign policy of the last 30 years and inward migration to Europe from people who've been displaced. And I think if you start to do that in a compelling way, I think you can attract quote-unquote right-wing voters or at least damp that line of attack down quite well. We'll see. And that's the big question, right? I think this anti-war argument for too long has gone hand in hand with establishment liberalism. I think the minute you stop doing that, you could see some quite interesting coalitions.

26:21Why, given Labour's attempts to achieve some kind of middle ground on the Gaza issue, why has it not gone away? Why is Labour still dogged by this? That might seem like a silly question. No, it's a great question. I mean, I would say that what's happening in Gaza now is unprecedented. Even in the history of Israel since 1948, what's happening is really, really unprecedented in terms of the scale, in terms of the ferocity, but also the fact that the videos and pictures are just coming into the West and our phones and our TV screens just in real time constantly. I also just think that Keir Starmer isn't a particularly good politician.

26:57He's not a particularly good, you know, in football, you call it a man manager. He cannot deal with different constituencies and different people and get them to see that our interests align and your rational self-interest is to be with me. And I think that's a broader problem for the Labour Party now, right? You got Rachel Reeves yesterday crying and people say she's just a person, she's just a human being. She was cheering on people being booted out of that party for years. She was talking to the FT and she said precisely that, we don't want them here. She was very, very happy when other people were on the way out politically, including somebody like Jeremy Corbyn.

27:28And I find it quite striking that there seems to be this double rule. You could almost say two tiers in terms of how we treat our politicians. But yeah, Keir Starmer very ineffective. And I think that's the major reason why. You mentioned Rachel Reeves. Have you heard anything about what was going on there? And if not, do you have any theories for why she had that sort of breakdown? Look, again, it boils down to how the media relays this stuff. We don't know what it was. It was private issues. Well, Carrie Badenock really went for her full throttle, basically saying that she's on her way out, the PM isn't willing to defend her.

28:00And then she breaks down in tears. This is the day after the government's signature welfare policy is effectively spiked a few hours before a vote. That is very unusual. It's absolutely unprecedented within a first term of a government. And I think that Rachel Reeves knows that her career is probably over after the autumn budget. And this is somebody who identified with being a successful politician, apparently since a very young age. She's made a great deal about breaking the glass scene of being the first female chancellor, although of course this country had many female Prime Ministers before her.

28:31So I think she kind of feels a bit humiliated now. I mean, I don't know. People say it's maybe a personal bereavement. Of course, if that is the case, I'm very sorry for her. Although if it was a bereavement, she wouldn't have been in the chamber. Well, I'd hope not. And also if she insisted on being in the chamber, I think a good boss and the Prime Minister is her boss would say, no, you're not doing that. So, I mean, we don't know, but it's pretty striking, isn't it? You know, the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland being in tears at PMQs. And some people are trying to excuse it and make out like it's normal.

29:00I mean, croaky. Some people will say anything. Yeah. I think a lot of people listening to this or watching it will be wondering whether, given that you had these hundred and odd people who originally were going to rebel against the welfare bill and who ultimately almost effectively killed off the welfare bill, two questions. One, could you see some of those Labour MPs defecting to a more left-wing party if one was set up by Jeremy Corbyn. And sort of following on from that, do you think that Labour is still very much a divided party and that there is still a large percentage of the parliamentary party that is on the sort of the left, the sort of Corbyn side of it, given that Morgan McSweeney and Keir Starmer were supposed to have purged the party of those people at the last election?

29:49Yeah. So in answer to the first question, I think, yes, a large number of those people could join. a new left party or a left coalition of independence or even the Green Party. I think that's quite plausible. And then on the second point about, well, the purges, maybe they weren't as extensive as we think. The median Labour Party member and also MP, and those are two separate categories, but the same analysis applies to both, thought that Starmer would come in, all that was needed was a more competent, professional version of the Conservative Party, and that we would go back to 1997. I mean, that was basically the sell, right?

30:25There was absolutely no real acknowledgement of the fact we've had 17 years of stagnant productivity at the last general election, that in terms of our national debt servicing that costs in excess of£100 billion a year, I think it was£110,£120 billion last year. The deficit is obviously£120 billion, ageing population, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. That's a very different set of conditions. And all Starmann basically said ahead of the last election was, I'll grow the economy. I would simply grow the economy. And of course, if you don't simply grow the economy, you will have to have austerity.

31:00There would have to be some kind of consolidation, tax rises and spending cuts. And that's what they're doing. And I think the average Labour MP, of course, many of them are new, had no idea that was on the way. They had no idea. And I think that speaks to the calibre of people in politics today. But also the fact that maybe, you know, they didn't want to think about that, actually. It's quite nice to think that I'm a good person, I'm on the side of good, and we're going to do good things. And actually, the problems aren't very hard or even intractable. But they probably are in many cases. So I think that's the explanation.

31:31It's not because they're incredibly left-wing. And this also applies to Labour voters. A lot of Labour voters are just really confused. They say, we voted for this guy, and now they're going after Pip. This doesn't make any sense. Of course, it makes sense when you look at the details of the British economy. But if the choice is between growth versus austerity, fine. But the people who we've discussed on the left who might be the centre of this party, this new alliance, I hear them talking a lot about foreign policy. I hear them talking about their opposition to austerity. What I rarely hear from a Jeremy Corbyn or the Gaza independents is, and here's how I would fire up and transform the British economy.

32:09Where is that analysis? Well, that's a great question, isn't it? And that's the part of the jigsaw that's missing. It's a huge part of the jigsaw. Although in their defence, I mean, Keir Starmer hasn't thought about it, right? So you've got the party of government and nor have the Conservatives fundamentally, nor have reform. I mean, this is the really interesting thing. You make a great point, Tim. But fundamentally, nobody in British politics right now has a plan to deal with the stuff we just said. I mean, when you're servicing your public debt and it's as big as your deficit and, you know, both of those numbers are in the ballpark of, like I say, 120 billion.

32:42It's wild. And on foreign policy quickly, when I realized Keir Starmer was completely deluded was when he was talking about 5 % of GDP going on defense and national resilience. So 3.5 % on defense and the rest on national resilience, which, by the way, I'm not opposed to. But that's when I realised this guy has absolutely no idea what he's talking about. The idea that you're going to go to 3.5 % of GDP on defence spending when the fundamentals of the British economy are so bad, they are so bad. I mean, he's just completely out there. And so I suppose there is a left wing argument you could make and I would make it.

33:15But look, there's literally no point of having Trident and F35s and all these other bits of kit if the supply chains aren't in the UK. If we cannot make our own microprocessors in Britain, it means nothing. If we don't have the knowledge of the industrial processes behind all of this stuff, and we do for some of it, it literally means nothing. Because in a war, no steel manufacturer, no intellectual knowledge about how to make stuff, no domestic energy production. We're not going to last 10 minutes. Yes. But there isn't a serious conversation about that stuff. And we're having a national security debate right now.

33:46And it's just, oh, we're just going to spend more money on American kit. Okay. You see, this is where I think you and Novara Media are very clever, Aaron. Oh, that's nice to hear. Because you go on GB News and you talk about ends that even a right wing audience can often agree with. We will love manufacturing. We will want growth, et cetera, et cetera. But you haven't told us the means. And I wonder if some of your means involves punitive tax rises. Oh, no. I think on tax, I'm probably more unpopular than you are, actually. OK, really? Because how on earth are you going to pay for this second industrial revolution?

34:20And not cutting pips and all the other things at the left. is so keen on. Yeah. I'd say two things. Firstly, I think personally, we can substantially shrink the administrative state. Personally. I know lots of people out there say that, everybody says that all the time in politics. The OBR, I don't think should exist. Supreme Court, I don't think should exist. I think anybody with the word commissioner in their name probably shouldn't exist. I think we need, in that respect, in terms of the quangos, less governance, but better governance. So, okay, how much is that really? It's probably five, 10 billion a year if you're really going for it.

34:55Okay, so it's not going to change everything. Then I'd go to tax. I would say something which is going to shock you guys. I think working people pay too little tax. I think the fact that we've got the threshold on this country, I think on income, where it kicks in is wild. And I think actually, as soon as you start earning money, you should pay into the system. And obviously, because you get stuff back. We have this wild system now in Britain, where the middle class pay the most for stuff, because of course, if you're very rich, don't pay any sex at all, or very little. The middle class pay the most for stuff, and they get very little in return.

35:29And clearly, there's going to be no consent for that system. You can be a very successful working man or woman on 100 grand plus a year, your partner stay at home, you're doing all the right things, you've got three kids, the state's not going to help you. The state is not going to help you if you're not doing so well. And again, I'm not going to admonish somebody for having kids if they're not in the right economic situation. Of course, I wouldn't do that. But the state incentivizes you to do that. And it doesn't incentivize people who are ticking all the boxes, made some good choices, got really lucky.

35:59It doesn't help those people. So I think we're in a very weird situation where we have social justice conjoined onto a very weird tax system where we disincentivise good behaviour constantly and we incentivise less than good behaviour and we think these are, you know, morally praiseworthy. And then we ask, well, why is the country going to have a handbasket? OK, a lot of people would agree with that. That's what I'm saying. It's probably more right-wing than some of your listeners. Yeah, but it means reform, of course, for disagrees when it takes more people. But part of the reason why... Well, quite, reform are completely wrong on that.

36:32But Conservative parties have done that, taking the working poor out of tax precisely because they want to make the system seem more progressive. They want to encourage those people to work, but then not punish them for doing so. So they've attempted to make the current tax system seem fairer in that sense of exempting people who at least do go and get a job from having to pay tax on it. Yeah, but then we have these bizarre, you know, sort of, like I say, incentives. So, yeah, they don't pay any tax on that. But if you're paying 50 % of your income in terms of rent, that creates all kinds of dysfunctions.

37:02You know, if you want people to be in work and get good wages, you know, this is where I'll be an old fashioned socialist. Have collective wage bargaining agreements and have trade unions. OK, they're not always going to say things you like, but that's a good way of guaranteeing healthy wages for working people. This idea that we're going to have the tax threshold here and the minimum wage is going to. I'm not opposed to minimum wage, but I think the idea that you use that as the unique instrument of social justice alongside tax policy. I mean, it's clearly not working. Can I ask you a question that probably a lot of people listening and watching this will be asking themselves or be quite keen for somebody to tell them?

37:38What is the definition of a working person? Keir Starmer keeps talking about working people. You've said it quite a few times. Does anybody who has a job count as a working person? Does somebody who earns£200 ,000 count as a working person? Or are they not a working person because they earn too much in maybe Sikir's view? Yeah, it's a great question. You know Karl Marx said if you're if you're having to sell your labor to to live for a wage then you're a working person I mean that's quite expensive you could be on six hundred thousand pounds a year and yeah be a working person I think there's something to that.

38:07I think it is a good description personally But in the real world, I'd say probably earning less than 150 grand Okay, so if you're on 160 you're no longer a working person. It's an arbitrary Working very hard. It's an arbitrary thing and also look there are people like if you look at the the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. The guy managing that is on like, I think$500 ,000. He's on a lot of money, right? But he's adding a tremendous amount of value to the Norwegian taxpayer. Nobody's going to say, oh, this guy's a parasite. So there's a conversation there. And I think you've got to, these are arbitrary definitions.

38:42I like the Marxist one, but at the same time, it seems a bit wild that people are being paid, you know, say a million pounds a year and you can call him a working person. I like the, and this is making me a bad Marxist. I like the British sociological definition of working class and middle class, where it's more about social attitudes and what kind of work you do. That seems more useful to me. Yeah, in which case, again, the coalition we're talking about tends to not be culturally conservative. So the British working class, classic definition is, economically needs help, culturally quite conservative.

39:13But the people like Jeremy Corbyn and some of those on the left, the Green Party, they're the very opposite of that. So how do you square that circle of a left-wing party is trying to speak for the working class But the working class which increasingly votes reform or even an America Republican Does not culturally align with their vision of the country? So there's a few things that are crossing across one other here So if you look at for instance by a I mean the major cleavage for Politics in this country's age the major cleavage and you might say that's time limited. It'll change they get older They'll change voting habits But if you look at the 2019 general election labor with Jeremy Corbyn amongst under 65s one more votes than the Tories in 2019.

39:53I know that sounds hard to believe they did. I think it was like single digit percentage, you know, 2 % difference between them and the Tories, but they did. But then of course they get smashed amongst the over 65s. So I think that is a really important appendage to what you just said, but there's no doubt that on the culture stuff that has been over the last 10 years, a challenge for the left. But then equally, you know, my sort of response would be when you see these projects that come up like blue labor they talk about the social and cultural stuff which is fine crack on with that but they don't then talk about the economic stuff so i wonder do you actually care about the economic stuff you know yeah can i just ask you famously jeremy corbyn got more votes in i think 2017 than keir starmer got when he won in 2024 despite starmer's huge majority do you think that the parliamentary labor party is perhaps still misaligned with its membership or certainly with the voter base that they are further to the right than than the voters are which obviously would potentially benefit Jeremy Corbyn if he was setting up a new party the membership is absolutely to the left of the party but I think what you've seen with the welfare for Argo is actually that the MPs are this isn't the right phrase but that's the left of reality, right?

41:14Which is to say that they have been sold a pup by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves about what has to happen in this country. We're going to have to endure some really hard times in this country. They're working off ideology and Keir Starmer is working off reality. But is he? I don't think he even knows this stuff. Rachel Reeves, I think, tells him the economic side of things and Morgan McSweeney tells him the politics. I don't think he... Yes, well, there's a political reality and there's economic reality, isn't there? And the economic reality is that you have to get the welfare bill down. The political reality, as we've seen, is that you can't, not with the current crop of MPs.

41:50I suppose a left-wing response that is, you know, why should the welfare bill go down when you're saying that defence spending is going to go from 2.3 % to 3.5 % of GDP? Now, of course, the response then is, well, we have to because of Russia and national interest, national security. Nobody thinks right now that that 2.3%, which is about£60 billion, nobody thinks that's being spent well. No, literally nobody. I've spoken to really top people in procurement who are not left wing and they say it's the most wasteful procurement in the public sector bar none. So why are we then increasing that by 50 % when it's already spent so badly?

42:23That would be my response. Why are we doing that? And then, OK, once we get that on top of that, we can talk about we can talk about welfare. And I think there's with huge bureaucracies, there's always money that's going to be wasted. Of course, there is in any in any sphere of public spending. So that to me is the kind of that's the crazy thing. Yeah. I mean, there's a tiny number of us who would cut both welfare and defence. It's just me and Rand Paul. But we do exist. Well, Aaron Bastani, it's been fascinating talking to you. Thank you ever so much for coming in to The Daily Tea. I'm sure we'll speak again.

42:54My pleasure.

43:38We'll be right back. for an afternoon or all weekend, everyone feels right at home. Get holiday guests ready at Wayfair.com or on the Wayfair app today. Wayfair, every style, every home. There are two types of business owners, those who are busy and those who want to be busy. Toast is designed for both, with tools to keep you humming and help turn grind into growth. That's how you turn busy into business. Toast, built for busy.