


7 Sep 2026 · 40m · 15 chapters

The episode discusses UK politics and the migrant crisis, focusing on Andy Burnham’s social-media “alarm clock” messaging, protests in Dover and Portsmouth, and claims that asylum and immigration systems are being gamed while local residents fear violence and disorder.
George Madgwick, head of the Reform group on Hampshire County Council. He says he witnessed Portsmouth arrivals and protests from 4pm to 3am, describing organized resident action and later masked outsiders.
Burnham’s “little things” childcare/education cost relief is framed as political “deliverism” that avoids deeper economic and immigration problems. The episode argues asylum processing and welfare incentives allow abuse, citing a Royal newspaper claim that only 1% of asylum claims are genuine, plus assertions about low deportation rates and long asylum backlogs. It claims some protesters are linked to Rupert Lowe/Restore and that Reform draws a line at balaclavas.
A “mega dinghy”/vessel arrivals near Portsmouth’s Royal Navy area; Patriot Platform protests; a Sunday Portsmouth arrival of about 140 migrants; a recent Portsmouth rape case involving an Iraqi foreign national; and alleged asylum tactics (scripted interviews, coordinated “gay” claims, and “unaccompanied minor” misrepresentation).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes.
Discussion on Andy Burnham's TikTok videos amid a migrant crisis.
“As protesters take the migrant crisis into their own hands, our Prime Minister Andy Burnham is posting TikTok videos.”
Exploring public reactions and feelings about migrant arrivals.
“The people that turned up in the Balaclava specifically told me they will not vote for Nigel Farage, they will not vote for Reform.”
Discussion on government measures regarding childcare and public expectations.
“It is to focus on the little things that governments can do to make life a wee bit cheaper in the hope that people will overlook the catastrophic grand narratives that are reshaping their lives.”
Critique of Labour's approach to policy and its impact on society.
“I think I should get them to clean their own teeth.”
Discussion on European political shifts and their implications for migration.
“B, there is a long drag to asylum and immigration.”
Details on local protests in Dover and Portsmouth against migrants.
“Meanwhile, something has changed here where over the weekend, masked protesters were having demonstrations in Dover and Portsmouth that attempted to block the movement of asylum seekers arriving at these shores.”
Firsthand accounts of the protest activities related to migrant arrivals.
“because we constantly think of Dover, but that opens up a new kind of frightening strain of is anywhere along the south coast of England safe now from illegal crossings.”
Explore the local tensions and fears surrounding migrants in Portsmouth.
“They come to the front then the riot police arrived and Community tension started to rise a little bit there, but it was very well controlled.”
Discussion on the realities of asylum seeking and public perceptions.
“But a lot of people will be asking, are they genuine asylum seekers?”
Learn about the complexities of the UK welfare system and how it is perceived to be manipulated.
“Of course, native Britons use a script when they apply for PIP.”
Discuss the rising concerns about civil unrest linked to asylum policies and societal breakdown.
“And part of the problem is that there have been months passing between the easy interview and the difficult interview.”
Examine critical statistics surrounding asylum seekers and their implications for society.
“They're taking the law into their own hands and they're adding to the chaos.”
Analysis of political responses to economic challenges and the impact of migration on society.
“minutes ago, Keir Starmer was bailing out this company to try and save 500 jobs.”
Explore the divisions within the right political landscape and their electoral implications.
“and restoring people's faith, which really means rebuilding the cultural fabric of this country, and regenerating the economy.”
Explore the complexities of voter decision-making in the context of party politics.
“And right now I cannot predict what that looks like, who wins or which is the bigger party on the centre-right.”

Get the gist, explore an idea or ask about something said.
On The Daily T, what are the key points of this episode?
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.
0:02The Telegraph.
0:30Shop Halloween decor now at Wayfair.com. That's W-A-Y-F-A-I-R dot com. Wayfair, every style, every home. Hi, this is Mark Bittman from the podcast Food with Mark Bittman. Have you ever considered how the smallest details can create real emotion? Lexus does. At Lexus, master craftsmen called Takumi are involved not just in physical craftsmanship, but in sensory details. Things like how a door closes, the click of a switch, the acoustic feedback of controls. Because a car that doesn't make you feel something is a car that stops short of amazing. Experience amazing at your Lexus dealer. As protesters take the migrant crisis into their own hands, our Prime Minister Andy Burnham is posting TikTok videos.
1:22Never mind alarm clock Britain, our Andy needs to wake up. We speak to a Reform UK council leader who witnessed the arrival on the south coast of a mega dinghy carrying hundreds of migrants. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me Camilla Tomini and me Tim Stanley. The people that turned up in the Balaclava specifically told me they will not vote for Nigel Farage, they will not vote for Reform. They actually called me scum for supporting Reform and they said specifically that they're supporting Rupert Lowe and Restore. This is why people, by the way, are taking to the streets of Dover and Portsmouth, because they just see it as a free-for-all.
1:58Britain likes people to queue and do the right thing, and can we have some rules in place? This just seems like the Wild West. Tim, there are protesters in Portsmouth and Dover. Migrants are arriving by dingy load. There's no growth. Land Rover is letting 4 ,000 people go. We're looking forward to a budget that's probably going to tax us more. Borrowing's at an all-time high With the guilt yields higher Than under Liz Truss Who apparently crashed the British economy But don't worry Because Andy Burnham's recorded a social media video With an alarm clock When the alarm goes off You're back on the school run Trying to get the kids out the door And get to work on time Being a parent sometimes is not easy It's why we're taking the pressure off Those busy mornings This government is creating thousands more childcare places Through new school-based nurseries so parents don't have to rush around doing multiple drop-offs.
2:53We're also rolling out 1 ,400 free breakfast clubs, giving parents more time at the start of the day, helping with childcare costs and making sure children get a good meal before lessons begin. We're also bringing down the cost of school uniforms to stop parents being trapped into paying high prices. On top of all of this, we're also capping bus fares at£2 and helping with household energy bills. Less pressure, more breathing space for parents, Let's bring back hope for children and families. Well, that certainly brightened up my September. He's stolen the alarm clock bit from reform and his political strategy is so Keir Starmer 2.0.
3:30Yes. It is to focus on the little things that governments can do to make life a wee bit cheaper in the hope that people will overlook the catastrophic grand narratives that are reshaping their lives. Yes. So what have we got in there? We've got breakfast clubs, help with the school run, action to keep down the costs of school uniforms. Now, I'm not going to take away that a lot of people will be delighted at the few pennies that are saved from those things. But aside from raising the question of why can't people feed their own kids? And that's not just a moral judgment, but that might also be a question about the kind of economy we're running.
4:11I do also have to ask, how does help with the school run bring back hope? Politicians have a very strange idea of how the human being works. Yes. What brings me hope is very personal stuff like relationships and God. Yes. It's not the cost of school uniforms has fallen. Well, as somebody who has done a school run now for a long, long time, and I've still got many years left to do. I mean, it fills me with hope if there isn't a road closure on my school run. It fills me with hope if my children have actually got everything that they need for school, which amazingly they often don't, even though they do the same thing every weekday.
4:56But breakfast clubs have become the sort of sure start of this Labour administration. So when people used to criticise Tony Blair, for instance, for starting an illegal war that killed thousands of people, people would say, but look at Shorestart. And they do that in the same way for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, who I think are probably equally to blame for crashing the economy as Liz Truss right now with how borrowing is looking and tax and spend. And yet people go, but come on. They're lifting children out of poverty by having teachers clean their teeth and feed them breakfast. and my central question is a pretty busy parent i mean i'm managing to do the school run and do this show and work here full time and have an extra job at gb news so i'm a alarm clock writtener i'm what i'm a wonder woman i don't know but i'm saying i am an alarm clock person too i just keep hitting snooze that's fine and i know you're a snoozer and i'm a jump out of bedder but the point is this as a parent i expect to do the following because i've had children i've made the decision.
5:57I think I should get them to clean their own teeth. I think I should feed them breakfast before they go into school. And I think if I decide, as I have done, to send my children to two different schools, I should have to cope with a quite complicated school run. I'm not sure why the nanny state needs to intervene in my breakfast routine, to be perfectly honest. And as you say, I'm not sure what that does to guilt yields. Well, the left has become the party of papering over cracks. It no longer has a narrative or a theory for how to change the economy or society. It's not really interested in building heaven on earth.
6:33It's just about papering over social problems. So there is no ground. What causes people to not be able to brush teeth? They're bad parents or they're so rushed off their feet by an economy that makes them work several jobs that don't pay that they don't have time. In which case, where is your strategy for creating an economy in which people are well paid enough, preferably one person within the family, so that the other can stay at home and look after their kids. Whereas your strategy for doing that, the left doesn't have one. But this is also about a left-wing approach to politics, which says, if we just get the material things right, what Keir Starmer used to call deliverism, then immigration will take care of itself.
7:16It's not that Labour is doing nothing about immigration. they have a returns deal with France. They are introducing a new deal where they will pay based upon results. So hopefully the French will do a better job of stopping people from leaving because they'll get more money that way. They've increased deportations and they've also sped up the process, the processing of asylum claims. And the overall numbers of people crossing the channel are down. So it's not that Labour's doing nothing. But what they don't understand is, A, the numbers are down from a historic high. Yes. B, there is a long drag to asylum and immigration.
7:58Large numbers of people coming in two or three years ago are still being processed. We'll discuss that in a moment. So in other words, you're still dealing with the social and economic fallout of something that happened under a different government. But finally, they don't seem to understand the social strains and pressures that are caused by mass migration. So at the same time as Andy was recording his alarm clock video, two big things happened in Europe. One was the AFD won elections in Saxony. Yes. And the alternative for Deutschland is branded a far right party. I'm not sure how fair that is.
8:38I personally just don't know enough about it to make that judgment. It's confusing because they're sympathetic to Russia and Putin and they're anti-Western, which would suggest they're more on the socialist side of things, which would be far left, not far right. But maybe in the vein of national socialism, they're a little bit of both. What they represent is, I think, what Morris Glassman, the Labour peer, describes as the sovereignists of Germany versus the globalists that they see in figures like Merkel and Mertz. You know, people who have leaned into the European project, who have allowed mass migration and have denigrated as a consequence sort of Germanic society.
9:15Their policies are not a million miles away from reform. They are mass deportations allied to end net zero. And yes, they are more Putin curious than parties are in Britain. But that's possibly somewhat linked to the amount of money that Germany has spent on supporting the war in Ukraine. but confusingly their female leader is a lesbian who lives in switzerland with her partner who is sri lankan right so maybe it is far right uh again i don't feel like i know i don't feel i'm sensitive enough to the culture of germany to be able to make a moral judgment as to whether or not the afd is beyond the pale but what it doesn't look like is a repeat of the 1930s it's a different phenomenon.
10:00Either way, it is felt across Europe that the AFD doing that well marks a turn in its politics. Meanwhile, something has changed here where over the weekend, masked protesters were having demonstrations in Dover and Portsmouth that attempted to block the movement of asylum seekers arriving at these shores. And these appeared to be very well organised. So yeah, Yeah, exactly, Tim. As you say, we have Saturday morning a group called Patriot Platform that is linked, I think, to Tommy Robinson and others trying to basically stage a protest whereby people coming in and out of Dover would be blocked in order to make a point about mass migration into that particular area of the south coast.
10:48Actually, it was said to have carried off without too much trouble. There wasn't that much violence. There weren't any arrests. It was comparatively well-disciplined. And when the police said leave, they did eventually leave. They left and they left by lunchtime. Now, notwithstanding the fact that they probably ruined quite a few people's holidays, wanting to cross the Channel in a legal fashion. So that was that protest. And then last night, so Sunday night, we have an arrival of 140 migrants into Portsmouth, not necessarily typically associated, by the way, with dinghy landings, because we constantly think of Dover, but that opens up a new kind of frightening strain of is anywhere along the south coast of England safe now from illegal crossings.
11:36That initially precipitated a kind of local residence response that was then jumped upon by more masked protesters, making a point about wanting to basically block the road that the migrants were going to come in and out of in protest at what was going on. Well, all of this was actually witnessed by George Madgwick, who is the head of the reform group on Hampshire County Council. And we spoke to him. George, thanks for joining us on The Daily Tea. Can you describe the scenes that you saw? What happened? Sure. So I was actually the first one on the ground because I lived next to the sea where this was all happening.
12:12So I was there at four o 'clock yesterday afternoon and there till three in the morning at different locations. So it originated with two large vessels and they weren't small dinghies. They were large R &LI vessels arriving into one of the side ports in Portsmouth. Now, the people watching and listening to this, I think it's important to understand where they were arriving into. It was just slightly north of the military base that we've got, the Royal Navy. And the particular location, I think, was challenging because there was only one road on and one road off of this dock. So this led to residents noticing this very quickly.
12:47And where this road is situated is where housing, a housing development exists for military veterans and military personnel. So there was a significant amount of people, local residents around 2000 that saw this very, very quickly. And hundreds of them come out of their doors by 5.30, 6 o 'clock at night to block that road. The logistics. So whoever at the home office decided that this was the ideal location was foolish because the logistics, the location was poor. but they must have been aware in advance of these arrivals because there was tents set up there was food packages ready there was clothing packages ready they had set up a whole designated area prior to them ever coming into our ports this was clearly organized but in my opinion organized poorly now within hours it could become very busy as you say but this initially was mainly residents i'm talking women children adults in dressing gowns a lot of them actually dressing and gowns.
13:42It was a Sunday evening and there was actually community spirit. It wasn't aggressive or shouty or violent but as the night drew on and obviously social media and the news started picking it up, we started seeing a significant amount of people from out of the area start to arrive. At roughly 11.30 at night then we started seeing a couple of people and I'm talking maybe 20-30 people arrive in balaclavas. They come to the front then the riot police arrived and Community tension started to rise a little bit there, but it was very well controlled. The police did a fantastic job. The majority, and I would say 99 % of the people that were on the ground, the protesters, were peaceful and did a brilliant job.
14:21They were allowing the emergency services like the fire trucks through, etc. It's a pure example of people that are terrified and scared of it happening on their shore. That's basically what I witnessed. Can you tell us, what are they terrified and scared of? What were the, not the outside protesters, but regular citizens? What is their objection to these people arriving at that place in England? I think many of us, regardless of what side of politics, John, are scared of the unknown. And I think this is a problem. Now, you've got to remember Portsmouth. We're talking about Portsmouth specifically here.
14:55Now, Portsmouth last year went through a crisis in itself. You know, we had the Royal Beach Hotel used as a location to house migrants. We had a number of, unfortunately, sexual assaults and other things that have happened down in Portsmouth during the summer last year. And we had more migrants stationed in our city than the rest of Hampshire combined. They are official home office statistics. You can check it and confirm. So in Portsmouth, we had this summer of discontent along with Epping Forest, etc. And at the latter part of last year, that obviously quelled, it went down and it becomes subdued.
15:29So Portsmouth are almost on this heightened alert for something to happen. And they are concerned about this because we have had really nasty, vicious assaults happen on our street of our people. And just a couple of days ago now, there was a Iraqi foreign national that was charged for raping a 14 year old boy in Portsmouth just a few days ago. Obviously, that investigation has got to take its course. We won't comment on that. But what I want to give you is the context of what happens in Portsmouth. And this is why people here specifically are so concerned. Now, I can imagine that you're very sympathetic to those people who spontaneously showed up from the local area.
16:05But as to those who turned up, who were rather more organized and were coming from outside, how does reform feel about them? Because, you know, in some cases they're covering their faces. Their behavior seems to be somewhat intimidating. They are clashing with the police at both Dover and Portsmouth. On the one hand, you sympathise with the grievance right. On the other hand, does reform want to draw a line when it comes to vigilante action? Yeah, and I think that there's a heavy line to be drawn here. I think some people listen to reform and think that we are part of this issue. And it's very clear to say that it's not.
16:41And I can give you an example of last night of how to prove that it wasn't, because I was on the scene reporting live for different TV networks until three in the morning. and I too was intimidated by a number of masked up balaclava men because I was reformed because I wasn't right enough because I wasn't far enough to the right of them and and I had to have a couple of security come around me to protect me so you know those people in balaclavas do not see reform as an ally they do not see reform as a friend and we are very very very adamant in reform that everyone's got the right to protest everyone's got the right to do a peaceful action and we respect that because equally you've got to remember the police are doing the job as well it's not their fault you know the police have got to do a job as well where we draw the line is wearing balaclavas we are the first people to criticize those on the left like antifa that come up to protest with balaclavas and it'd be hypocritical for us to take a different view when the right side of politics do the same thing so no we've been very firm that we believe in protests we think people should be able to do that but it always must remain peaceful and never should there be an example where you use any form of face covering because it is intimidating even if they don't intend the intimidation to exist it is naturally an intimidating thing.
17:53I mean interestingly George, Sarah Pochin, your own Reform MP, told us at the Reform Conference for a Daily Tea episode that people can listen to and watch that she wants all face coverings banned including the burka and she included balaclavas in that but who do you think these vigilante protesters are associated with if not with Nigel Farage's party? I can tell you because they told me themselves it was Rupert Lowe. You know, that's who they were associated with. The people that turned up in the balaclava specifically told me they will not vote for Nigel Farage, they will not vote for Reform.
18:24They actually called me scum for supporting Reform. And they said specifically that they're supporting Rupert Lowe and Restore. And I think that's a real concern for Restore because I think they seem to be attracting these people that are slightly more intimidating and aggressive. But, you know, these people don't exist. Our protesters or protesters that exist on the streets do not exist if the government fix the problem. And we need to stop blaming the protesters or blaming local residents for leaving their house and having their voices concerned. What we need to do is look at why this problem exists.
18:58And if a government, any government, whether it be the Conservatives, Labour or a future reform government, they need to fix the problem. Because if this problem didn't exist, people wouldn't be out in the streets protesting. People are concerned. And I really want to stress that, you know, politics aside, I know it sounds crazy coming from a reform council, but politics aside, we are one nation. We're one people. We're people that care about our communities and care about our people. And the government have a responsibility to defend that. The concerns simply are that people are arriving on our shores undocumented, unchecked, and more than likely or not, they'll be allowed in our communities where, granted, a large portion of them might be nice, genuine people.
19:36Our issue is there will be a small minority of them that are dangerous, that are violent, that are aggressive, that do mean and will cause us harm. And that's what people are concerned about. George Madgwick, thank you very much indeed for joining us on today's Daily Tea. Thank you.
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21:42George rightly said they're not all criminals. Of course they're not, that's absurd. But a lot of people will be asking, are they genuine asylum seekers? And we have to mention a Royal newspaper, The Times. Yes, very quickly. Okay, very quickly. has a front page this morning in which an official, an insider, claims that only 1 % of people claiming asylum are genuine. Which is a stunning statistic, isn't it? It is. I don't think it's entirely trustworthy. It's a guesstimate. I think it's hyperbolic. Yes. But he is supported by... But the gist of what he's saying is supported by the official numbers.
22:26Yes. when the last government tried to clear the backlog, 76 % of asylum applications were being agreed to, greenlit. That figure has now fallen to 37%. OK, so that sounds like good news. No, no, but if you think about it, that means that of the people claiming asylum here, only a third, the government is saying, are genuine. Well, that's fine if the people who aren't genuine are immediately sent home. Well, this is the issue. it turns out that you have even if you're even if you are rejected you have a 95 percent chance of staying in the country because you can you just slip into the black economy you appeal or you just slip into the black economy but then people be wondering well how do you get all of the bells and whistles you need to be legitimate you're just not legitimate let me add one more how do you get onto a housing list how do you get a job you're meant to have a national insurance number yeah how do you get to use the nhs yeah it creates this kind of this is why people by the way are taking to the streets of dover and portsmouth because they just see it as a free-for-all that there aren't any rules you know britain britain likes people to queue and do the right thing and can we have some rules in place this just seems like the wild west well they're not really queuing and they're not even necessarily coming in on the boats this is a misunderstanding so at its height one in 10 people applying to live in the UK were asylum seekers.
23:54So it's become a very significant part of the migrant population. And a great number of them are not coming over the channel. They're overstayers from the Boris wave and the visa programme. So these are people who came in ostensibly to say work in social care. And once the visa has expired, they've then said, I can't go back to my home country because it's unsafe. Yes. And by the way, those people are allowed to bring lots of dependence. You might not have ever been working in social care. That is critical, right? Because if people are at least coming over here and working in social care, the British public will go, well, all right, we do need people caring for the elderly.
24:34But if they brought the uncle, the aunt, the cousin, the sister's brother's lover, and none of them are contributing. And logic tells you that if they came over to work and then claimed asylum, then they're not in desperate fear of their life because initially they were coming for work. Right. They're economic migrants. They're economic migrants who have subsequently announced that they are, in fact, living in immediate threat of danger. Now, the whistleblower has a couple of, I'm afraid, quite amusing examples of how people try to get around the rules. He says he has encountered a large number of Iraqi Kurds claiming asylum who have all said that they were in a relationship with the daughter of the prime minister of the Kurdistan region.
25:23So all of them. She must have been busy. Well, I'd love to meet this girl. Wow. She's a very warm and generous lady. At the same time, a large number of Pakistani men have been claiming that they cannot return to Pakistan because they are gay. And a typical tactic is to appear in a British gay nightclub with their top off, perhaps 10 of them standing in a row, all saying, this is me. Wow. Singing YMCA? And many of them have produced a letter affirming their homosexuality, which all comes from the same man. Wow. So like the daughter. Again, a warm and generous person who we'd all like to meet. But this, I'll tell you what's mind blowing about this.
26:11And I've done stories for news on people trying to exploit this persecution claim that they are Bidoons, which is a kind of like Exard state of Kuwait and gaming the system by falsely claiming they have that. nationality in order to get into the country and then seek asylum and even though the home office knows about the loophole it won't close it down then we've got other examples that we've written about smuggling gangs running rings around the authorities by giving people scripts to adhere to when they're questioned by border force with regard to their asylum claims so that's the gaming of the system we know the whole situation where literally grown bearded men are claiming to be unaccompanied minors again anyone with any common sense would look at them and go well you're fibbing and making it up we have that then interspersed with kind of lefties like darren jones the former chief secretary to the treasury saying that most of the people on the boats are women and children again the public is incredulous well that's not how it looks to me we spoke to the chap who worked with isabel oakshot to get on a migrant dinghy he said they're all men bar one woman who was there with children they're all seeking work they're all moving on from france where they could have stayed and then as george alluded to there i mean if you're a resident of and you're seeing literally the welcome map being rolled out for people who arrived here illegally are being accompanied by the rnli and reportedly rescue boats actually trailed the dinghy as it left france towards the south coast just in case people got into trouble but Tents being set up.
27:48Effectively being escorted. Yeah, charity people going, oh, come on, here's a sleeping bag and stuff. I mean, that's not something that's afforded to ex-veterans who are now on the streets of London, is it? Well, Camilla, you say, you mentioned that they use a script. Of course, native Britons use a script when they apply for PIP. Yes. And part of this is that we have a checkbox welfare system. Yes. Whereby it doesn't matter how much you put in. What matters is if you say the right things. Yes. You automatically proceed to get the money. And we've got a load of people on social media fueling all this by giving advice, which is very easy to obtain.
28:27It used to be kind of cloak and dagger. Now it's just out in the open. Do you want to claim transport for school? Here's how you do it. No real question of whether your child has a condition that deserves transport. Well, and of course, this all links back to Ernie Burnham, what we were discussing at the beginning with how the government is giving away more and more free stuff. Well, if you say to the world's poor, come here, there's more and more free stuff you could possibly get if you are successful with your claim. By the way, the way it works is when you arrive, you have an initial interview.
28:55And in that, that's a brief interview in which you can be very vague. You just need to sort of say, I fear I'm in danger of my life. I'm gay or whatever. And then you come back for a much longer interview, which is the in-depth one that really screens to see if you're genuine. And part of the problem is that there have been months passing between the easy interview and the difficult interview. And what this government has done is sped that up so that you proceed to the second interview much faster. But you can get around that by getting a doctor's note and saying you're sick. You see, this is what really winds me up.
29:24First, there are genuine asylum seekers who are going to be stigmatized as a result of this. Second, because the people who are playing the system are taking advantage of the decency and the values of liberal British society. They're turning our love against us. in a sense. I mean, the gay thing is a mockery. The gay thing is a prime example of that. Just studying what does this society value? Well, look at all the pride flags. They really love pride. Okay, I'll pretend that I'm gay. Manipulating the generosity of the welfare state. Manipulating the medical system in order to get a sick note. Everything that...
30:04And so people who want to control asylum, what we're doing in a way is we're trying to defend the decency of liberal society before it's so manipulated and overwhelmed that it turns nasty and authoritarian and ends up voting either for parties like the AFD or you get things like the protests that we've seen at Dover and Portsmouth. Now, last year, I wrote an article saying that I was worried about civil war coming in Britain. All I was doing was borrowing from the ideas of David Betts. I was just trying to publicize them, who is a war studies professor at the University of London at King's College.
30:39And when I use the language of civil war, people jumped on it to say, what, you mean like North and South? No, it's not that. What Betts is saying is that when you have a failed state, you have a low-level insurgency that fills the vacuum of trust in the state. When people think either the government is inept or worse, working against me, actively bringing people in, then what people will do is they will form vigilante groups and they will begin to police their communities instead. And of course, this is what's been happening in Catholic and Protestant communities of Northern Ireland for decades.
31:17And as Aris Roussinos has argued, a journalist who spent a lot of time in Northern Ireland, he writes for Unheard, we're seeing the ulsterisation of Britain. This is what creating a multicultural sectarian society looks like. You have, in the case of the rape gangs, you have people covering up for their own community. And you get, in reaction to that, you get people enforcing the law. For those listening, that's an inverted commas. Of course, they're not. They're breaking the law. They're taking the law into their own hands and they're adding to the chaos. And so you get the slow breakdown of trust and order in society.
31:55So for those who say that people who worry about mass migration are racists or authoritarians, the opposite is generally true. Mainstream centre-right people and those on the left, like Morris Glassman, we mentioned him, who have argued against mass migration, are actually trying to save liberal democracy from itself. By saying, if you don't exercise control and if you don't protect the welfare state from abuse, you're going to get either chaos or fascism. Also, throw into that mix people genuinely being concerned about the safety of their children, largely the girls, but also the boys and youth unemployment at 16 percent, Tim.
32:37Yes. So you've got a million British youngsters not in education or employment having to compete for jobs with migrants. Then that's also problematic. There's a perfect storm here of, I think, three killer statistics. the 1 % of asylum seekers are genuine claim that as we say it's it's not a government statistic it's one man's interpretation he is on the inside he or she but let's just take that with a pinch of because it's not particularly scientific okay have that we've got the other killer statistic which is that only 4 % of illegal immigrants have been deported under labor 4 % so for all of the numbers and the fudging that they do that's the the one that people really care about yes and the third statistic and you mentioned the boris wave those four million people coming here during that period nine out of ten claims of asylum among pakistanis come from those who are on visas the another figure is uh 98 among bangladeshs okay and you look at that and this is the killer statistic on that one, that one migrant every minute gets either indefinite leave to remain in this country or British citizenship.
33:50So this idea as well, the desperation on the streets comes from the genie's out of the bottle and we can't do anything to put it back. And when you combine all that with the seeming, I mean, well-meaning denialism of Andy Burnham, who should not have been in Downing Street with an alarm clock, but probably down in Dover trying to keep the peace and you then have the chancellor john healy deliver what can only be described as a completely lackluster and irrelevant speech about the economy ahead of a budget that everyone's living in fear of because it's probably inevitably going to mean that we're all taxed even more you try to watch it you gave up halfway through because there was literally nothing in it which is an insult to this country at a time when we know we're economically on our knees we've already mentioned Jaguar Land Rover.
34:39By the way, Graham Pack, regular correspondent, points out five minutes ago, Keir Starmer was bailing out this company to try and save 500 jobs. Now 4 ,000 jobs are going. Where's the response to that by the prime minister? Yeah, I noticed polling showing that almost unanimously voters for AFD in Germany said that they were concerned about the cost of living crisis. And this all, again, brings us full circle back to the question of Labour's management. Mass migration is bad enough. When it's combined with a stagnant economy, then that's going to be a trigger for disorder and political change. And we are just not making capitalism work right now.
35:21And Labour is taking us down a path towards, it's paradoxical because they call it devolution. Y 'all think that means it's liberalizing and it's empowering and it's ending state power. It's not. It's actually empowering socialists to tinker more with the economy at a local level. And it's actually an attempt. In many ways, it's quite centralizing because it's an attempt to say growth should be over there. Those people should be great. I'm not Postcode. The columnist. Yeah, brilliant columnist for The Telegraph writes the newsletter. She pointed out that many postcodes contain just 15 homes. So a growth in every single postcode would mean that a cul-de-sac gets a factory.
36:11I don't know. There is no logical connection between rhetoric, policy and reality. Also, it's all very well Healy giving a speech in which he tells everybody what we're all suffering from and how difficult life is. the other problem for the public is that they're not identifying who is really to blame for all this so again healy is reverting back to he hasn't quite gone back to the 1970s like burnham and blamed thatcher but he's blaming austerity what austerity was literally 16 years ago yeah he's blaming brexit again forgive me but that was a decade ago tim and he's blaming liz truss well Liz Truss happened in a bubble of 47 days.
36:58She didn't outlive a lettuce. Yes, it had an impact on the economy. But at what point are you going to take responsibility for two disastrous budgets, which caused your own chancellor to have to resign along with your own prime minister? Just as the current Labour government want us to be completely blinkered to what went on between 1997 and 2010. Because, of course, Blair and Brown were looking back on Thatcher with horror. and they were re-industrialising the country. Were they? Honestly, it's complete and utter nonsense. Now they're diagnosing problems but not giving the right remedies and blaming the wrong conditions.
37:35Yes, so all our attention has to be on the right and can it unite and beat Labour and achieve the twin things of securing the border and restoring people's faith, which really means rebuilding the cultural fabric of this country, and regenerating the economy. Now, we're speaking off the back of having been at the Reform Conference, and we've just spoken to a Reform representative there. I feel like they are sitting on a volcano. And Nigel Farage knows that. He knows the vast reservoir of boiling anger that is underneath him. And he knows who those, he doesn't personally know who those protesters are, but he knows who those sorts of people are.
38:16and while the mainstream tries to paint reform as fascist it's actually it and kemi badenock are actually the last roll of the dice of center-right politicians before you get a fascist reaction and and they know that but there is a tension even within their own ranks so i was very uncomfortable with the way in which the crowd set upon a green protester during nigel Farage's speech and I was doubly uncomfortable with the fact that when asked about it Rob Jenrick said oh boo-hoo yeah was this the girl who was dragged by her hair out of the venue she was yes and there was a fantastic photo of an old man waving a crutch at her at a an old man an old white man waving a crutch at a young eco-protester I mean heavens there's there's Britain in 2026 in a photograph.
39:07And so I feel reform is walking a very narrow line here between, on the one hand, condemning civil disturbance and, on the other hand, almost winking at it knowingly while trying to offer a democratic alternative to it. It's a very difficult act to pull off. But then you're rather a democratic alternative. That's my point. Than balaclavid people completely outside of politics and the law. Yes. Taking matters into their own hands. But the frustrating thing is, Camilla, and I know people are going to feel that we say this every episode, but with the right divided. Yes, I know. Labour will win. Somebody wrote to me today saying, I watched everything over the reform conference and have been listening to you two carefully.
39:59And is the country going to the dogs and can it be saved? And I had to respond after reflecting on reform and having a quite interesting dinner with Danny Kruger and also conversations with people in the Conservatives that the only solution really is a very sensible right wing administration to somehow come together and trying to save us from this mess. Did Danny Kruger say that? He didn't say that, but he understands the need for consensus and he understands the need for bridge building. And reform really needs to reflect on what has happened. I would say, by the way, can we have some more left wing investigations into some of the Balaclavid people and restore?
40:40Yeah. I mean, obviously, they're only investigating Farage because he's got a stronger chance of becoming the next prime minister. Much, much stronger than Rupert Lowe. But have a look to the right of him and find out who the real enemy is here. And I don't know if the Balaclava people are linked to Restore. That's what reform is claiming. I mean, I think what's interesting is they're actually copying the tactics of things like Extinction Rebellion, far right and far left, sort of imitating each other. Yes, but we don't want either of them. We don't want anyone in balaclavas having any control over anything.
41:07We understand the sentiment, but not the execution. But to your point, my overriding feeling was, my God, reform needs to get its house in order. The right in general needs to get its house in order and somehow formulate a plan to restore common sense decency and British values to this country. I'll just close by saying I spoke privately to a pollster. I won't say which one. And I asked, can you summarise the real mood on the right, regardless of the triumphalism they inevitably get at a conference? And he said, in my calculation, 10 % of people are diehard reform. 10 % of people are still loyal to the Conservatives.
41:45Everyone else is transactional. Yes. They will vote for whoever they need to vote for to get Labour out. Yes. It's a full reversal of 2024 then. The next general election is going to be people getting Labour out just as the last general election was people trying to get the Tories out. And right now I cannot predict what that looks like, who wins or which is the bigger party on the centre-right. But I think while the parties inevitably have to play to their base and say no compromise, I think the reality, even possibly among some of the conference delegates, the reality is people on the day of the election clicking online and asking who do I vote for to stop Labour.
42:24We'll be back tomorrow, 5pm.
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As 140 people arrive in the UK on a “mega-dinghy”, Camilla Tominey and Tim Stanley look at the anti-migrant protests in Dover and Portsmouth in today’s episode of The Daily T. They discuss Andy Burnham making TikToks instead of dealing with ongoing problems the country faces.
Plus, Camilla and Tim are joined by George Madgwick, the leader of the Reform UK group on Hampshire county council, who was at the demonstration in Portsmouth.
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