Labour's local election bloodbath: Will Starmer resign?

0:02The Telegraph.

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1:15Election wipeout for Labour. Keir Starmer has taken the blame, says he won't walk away, but has left the door slightly ajar.

1:23Camilla: A terrible night for the Prime Minister, but a phenomenal result for reform. Nigel Farage joins us to say why these results suggest he will be the next Prime Minister. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Tim Stanley. And me, Camilla Tomini.

1:46Camilla: Tim, we've brewed an early cuppa in the yellow teapot. We are about to go through the local election results, as we know them so far, because we want to get this Daily Tea out early. But are we actually right now witnessing the fall of a prime minister? Well, let's listen to Keir Starmer describing the situation and his feelings at this trying moment. We have lost brilliant Labour representatives, people who put so much into their communities, so much into our party and our movement. And the voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. May was elected to meet those challenges and I'm not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.

2:28Camilla: The robotic nature of his response to what has been, let's be perfectly honest, at the catastrophic end of catastrophic for Labour, losing hundreds of councillors, not even two years into their premiership, is extraordinary. We'll get on to talking about the rise of reform and speaking to Nigel Farage in just a moment. But for the Prime Minister, let's just analyse that wording because he's not saying, I'm going to resign. Clearly, people are calling for that. He's also not saying, I think we should know, I'm not going to resign. What he's saying is, at the moment, I can't walk away because I wouldn't want to create more chaos.

3:12Camilla: I think he's saying, I can't walk away right now, much as everybody wants me to, because we don't have a succession plan. He is a lawyer and lawyers are careful with words. And they always say things in a way that sounds like you're shutting a door while leaving one slightly ajar. And by framing it as I'm not going to walk away and leave the country in chaos, it does raise the question, might you walk away if there was an orderly way to do it that actually brought stability to the country? Yes. And we know that two weeks ago, Ed Miliband advised the Prime Minister to draw up a timetable for departure.

3:51Camilla: Yes. The camp Miliband have sort of slightly denied it, but not fully denied it or denied aspects of the account that has been reported. Right. Put it this way. Clearly, Miliband gave him a tap on the shoulder a fortnight ago. I mean, it's bad when it's Ed Miliband doing it. Yeah, imagine. This is like Frank Spencer giving you life advice. Yes. But the point is, is that right now everyone's on tenderhooks, partly because they can't imagine a post-Kir future and the options are not very attractive. And there is a case of saying if Kir Starmer were to lose a few council seats and resign, that would indeed plunge the country and perhaps more importantly, the markets into crisis.

4:33But if he were to continue governing with a mind to, at some point within this parliament, I will be leaving, then that's a different prospectus, isn't it?

4:43Camilla: You are so right to point out the loyally nature of that statement. This is what one would call a kind of notwithstanding clause. I will stay as prime minister, notwithstanding the fact that my entire party and the country has indicated at these local elections that they hate my guts. Because at the moment, it could actually plunge the country into further turmoil. I think the jury's out on that, by the way. Well, the criticism of Labour opponents of Keir Starmer is these election results are on you. and it's actually very hard to judge the state of the country and what people really think and what they really want until you are gone.

5:22This is Dan Hodge's argument in the mail. He's having great fun this morning. I don't know why he hates Keir Starmer so bitterly. I don't know if Keir took a parking space from him at some point or something like that. I don't know.

5:30Camilla: He's the son of the late Glenda Jackson so he should be a bit more Labour friendly. But he's saying this is a referendum on Keir Starmer. And he's saying the left will not know how to fix itself until Starmer goes because right now everyone's voting against Starmer. Yes. The flip side of that is be realistic. There's some sort of psychological pleasure in the thought of Keir Starmer right this afternoon, appearing at the steps of number 10, going straight to the Queen and everyone shouting, and don't let the door hit you on the way out. But that's simply... Oh, the King. Sorry. It'll always be the Queen as far as I'm concerned.

6:01But that's not going to happen anyway. Whatever happens, it just doesn't happen like that when you're an incumbent prime minister. No. You timetable these things, you plan things, and there is a period of waiting between you stepping down and the choice of a new leader. So I think we all have to accept we are keeping Keir Starmer for a moment. And another thing we have to bear in mind, we'll get into this with the results. If you're on Team Starmer, you might argue that these results show you're better sticking with the devil you know.

6:27Camilla: How on earth could you argue that? Because the big winner today is reform. Yes. The Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham argument is the problem with this government is it's too right wing. but if your main opposition is a party that the party that Labour brands as far right why do you think kicking out Starmer and replacing him with Rayner or Burnham is going to make Labour electable again? No, that's right. Also, by the way, the caucus of support so far that we're witnessing for reform is in the old Red Wall which we can now call the Turquoise Wall and these are the people who switched from Labour to Boris Johnson in 2019 because they supported Brexit.

7:08Camilla: it. So a continuation of Starmer, let's get back in with the EU, Rachel Reeves, the only way we can grow is if we align ourselves with Brussels and a bit more of that on top with Rainer and Burnham. Where's that going to win you? That's not going to win you. Richmond on Thames, which has just returned something like a thousand Lib Dem councillors with literally no other party. As someone described it, Richmond is Waitrose as a town. Yes, that's right. So you have to write that off. You're worried right now about can we ever win Essex again? Can we ever win Kent? Can we ever win the North Wigan?

7:42Let's break down these. You take my point. This is not somewhere where you're fighting on your left flank, like the media is obsessed with, the Green Party. I know we've contributed that by discussing Polanski much this week. But actually, the real story is Nigel Farage.

7:57Camilla: Well, let's have a look at some of the actual results. So we have got Labour now having lost control of the council in Angela Rayner's constituency for the first time in almost 50 years. Tameside has been Labour since 1979, but Reform won 18 of the 19 seats. They've surrendered majorities on councils in Westminster, which has been won back by the Tories. We should note that. Southampton, Exeter, Redditch, Wandsworth, which hasn't been won by the Conservatives, but they have become the largest party. and Wandsworth was quite a kind of totemic seat for the Conservatives because it had historically low council tax and it was meant to be a kind of beacon of efficiency in a sea of red Labour constituencies that were profligate and kept on getting bankrupt.

8:42Wandsworth is the Israel of the Tory party. It is the promised land. They should have one place in the world that's always theirs and it's Wandsworth.

8:50Camilla: And it's Wandsworth. Hartlepool and Tamworth, again, Labour have been forced out there. Now, even the three councils that Labour has won, couldn't be lost. And this is an important point to note, because some people might look at the picture of council seat losses and then look at the actual council losses and think they don't quite tally. But the point is, in some places, not all the council seats were up for grabs, only a portion of them were. So there are places where Labour has clung on, but only because there weren't elections happening for the entire council. I'm only just getting up the website.

9:22Camilla: Can I just recommend everybody just keeps on the Telegraph website because we have got full results updating every 10 seconds, folks. So right now, as it stands, just I know this is going to be out of date later, but just where we are now, because it does give you a very good picture, a good early indication of where this is all headed. Reform plus 311 seats. Now, from nothing, that is an extraordinary result, Tim. Similarly, Labour already down 204 is in itself rather unprecedented simply because the Labour Party have only been in power since 2024. This is catastrophic for them. I can't stress that more.

10:05And as of right now, as an average vote share, Labour is down 17 points on the 2022 locals and 19 points on the 2024 ones.

10:13Camilla: And just with the other parties, the picture is Lib Dems doing quite well, Greens doing quite well, Conservatives, as predicted, doing badly, down 80 seats as it stands. That's interesting too. Independents down 79. Does that mean, and we're going to have to see this play out, that some of those Gaza independents and other independent candidates have been swept up by the Greens or indeed other parties? That's still to be confirmed. It's far too early to say, and the picture we're giving people right now is very much an English one. Yes. The dynamics of this will shift when it comes to Wales and Scotland, and the predicted loss of Wales might be the real psychological blow that causes more Labour MPs to come out and say that Starmer must go.

10:52Camilla: Well, Wales has been under Labour control since the Senate was set up more than 25 years ago, right? So that is, for them, seminal. Hey, Labour have controlled Wigan for 40 years. Yes. The usual suspects are calling on Keir Starmer to go, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Jonathan Brash, who we previously quoted, he's the MP for Hartlepool. And again, Hartlepool's one of those seats that should be read but is very much wavering. And John Trickett, previously quite the Labour loyalist, has joined those calls. So I said it was the usual suspects. Are we going to get more, more moderate Labour MPs now coming forward?

11:30Camilla: Ladbrokes odds on next Labour leader. Andy Burnham leading the race on 5-2. Angela Rayness 11-4, so very closely behind. Wes Streeting an outside bet at 6-1. Ed Miliband 9-1. And there's your problem right there. Again, this comes with a caveat of where it's very much talking about England right now. But of those four candidates, who do you think is the most appealing to England? West Streeting. Yes. And he's third down the list. He's not at the races necessarily. Not really, no. Tim, turnout is up, which is interesting because at the general election, it was quite historically low, which is why everyone was saying that Starmer had won a loveless landslide.

12:08It's still low, as local elections always are, as soon as the 40s. It's not terribly high, but it shows voters are engaged and people are coming out because they're motivated to send a message, whatever that message might be.

12:20Camilla: If the turnout begins with a four rather than a three, that shows that people are trying to exercise some degree of control over the future of this country, right? Well, let's talk about the other main story of the night beyond the Labour bloodbath and indeed Starmer being in abject peril. And that is that it's been an absolutely phenomenal night. Very good. Very strong. For Nigel Farage. Yes. And let's speak to the Reform UK leader now. He joins us from Westminster. Good morning, Nigel. Congratulations on your results so far. Give us a picture of how reform's doing across the country. Well, as I've been saying for a couple of weeks, in the Labour strongholds that I'm thinking here about parts of the North West, the North East, Yorkshire, bits of the West Midlands, the valleys in South Wales, we are doing remarkably well.

13:05And some of the results last night, albeit most of those councils were up in thirds with, you know, reform winning every single one of the seats available from Labour. We saw three or four cases of that. And I expect it to continue today. The best is yet to come. I can't wait for Sunderland. I'm thinking about Wakefield. I'm thinking about Barnsley. across the other side, St Helens. So yeah, what is happening here is a really historic shift because these are areas that since the 1920s, Labour have virtually been able to take for granted. And in the past, we've dipped into their vote. Brexit, of course, surprised the Labour Party in those areas.

13:48And in 2019, Boris Johnson made some big inroads, but we're digging far deeper into that red wall than Boris Johnson was ever able to do. And I really believe that these voters for reform are there for keeps.

14:03Camilla: This is a really interesting development, isn't it? This idea that actually you're hammering Labour. Previously, you've been hammering the Tories. We're now seeing a switch in that. We've heard from the Prime Minister this morning, Nigel. He's saying, well, I'm not going to walk away and leave the country in peril. What did you make of his speech this morning? Should he resign? What position is he now being left in following these catastrophic results for the governing party? Well, he's weak and he's brotherless, isn't he? I mean, he's a person that gets blown around by events because right from the first day of his premiership, there's never been a real goal.

14:41And I think what he and the London led Labour Party just don't understand. Two things, two things and two big reasons why we're winning seats in the north, in the Midlands, in South Wales, in these areas. The first is there is a big divide in Britain. I tell you what it is. It's between those that work and those that don't. Those that get up in the morning and go to work, whether they wear suits or orange jackets, they're the ones that are coming to us. They don't see Labour anymore as being the party of working people. They see it very much more, actually, as the party of welfare. And the second reason is people are seeing rapid changes in their community and societal decline.

15:25The number of women that have grasped my hands in the last few weeks who say, save us, please save us. They're fearful for their daughters or granddaughters to be out on the street. They see antisocial behaviour. They see the police not intervening, shoplifting being allowed. There is a feeling in many, many, many of these northern towns and cities that literally we're going down the plug hole. And I don't think the London Human Rights Lawyer Labour Party is connected with either of those two points. The Tories have done a little bit better than expected. They clung on in Bexley, for example. Why do you think reform didn't cut through there?

16:07Sorry, sorry. The Tories are doing better because they held on to Bexley, which they've had forever, and they beat us by 4.5%. I wouldn't call that doing all that well, would you? Look, what is happening with the Conservative Party is they will have their areas of support. But by tomorrow afternoon, what you will see is that the Conservative Party have ceased to be a national political party. You know, have a look. at the north of England, the red wall that we just discussed. How many seats are the Conservatives winning up there? Well, the answer is pretty much zero. Have a look at what's going to happen to the Conservatives in Wales, where they'll be reduced to an irrelevancy.

16:46Have a look in Scotland, where, again, the Conservative Party will be reduced to an irrelevancy. So reform's strength is that we are competitive in the north-east of Scotland, right down to the tip of Cornwall in the county elections last year. That is our big strength. What we have to do, of course, is to, as we look ahead to a general election, is to focus in not just the shotgun approach, but more of a rifle shot on constituencies. And that's the next big phase for our party.

17:18Camilla: I was going to ask you that. Can you reach the parts that Boris Johnson did in 2019? Because, of course, he managed to sweep up most of the home counties, the south-west. You performed absolutely brilliantly in the Red Wall, and we're not ever going to take that away from you. But you need the blue wall as well to have a stonking majority at the next general election, don't you? That is entirely true, which is why the other mega result today is Essex. Just think about it. Half the shadow cabinet, the leader, the chief whip, they all represent Essex constituencies. And so the battle that's been going on on the ground over the course of the last few weeks between reform and the Conservative Party in Essex.

18:01That is going to be a real biggie to watch for this afternoon. And I have to say, sitting here right now, I'm feeling pretty optimistic. In Scotland, whoever is the big party across the country has to take on the SNP in the future. I mean, that's a big challenge. There's a potential, we don't have a result yet, there's a potential for another independence vote coming down the line. How will reform speak to Scots? How will reform make the case for the union? Well, reform will make the case for the union. And I can assure you that our Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, who resigned his seat in the House of Lords to stand in these elections, will strongly make the case for the union.

18:41But also, you know, we're going to challenge the SNP on its wokery and much else in a way that the Scottish Conservatives haven't had the guts to do for the last couple of decades. And frankly, you know, one's wondered what the Conservative Party in Scotland even exists for. So I'm really hoping that we do come second. The SNP vote share is likely to be the lowest it's been for over 20 years. I don't think they're going to get an outright majority. And we will challenge them and fight them harder than anybody else has.

19:15Camilla: Final question to bring the conversation full circle. are you sure you want to get rid of Keir Starmer because it could be his failure that has caused your success today? Well, if I was being sarcastic, Camilla, I'd say that I really admire Keir Starmer. I want him to stay in the role for as long as possible because he's the best recruiting sergeant we could ever have. So long live Keir. But of course, I'm being slightly tongue-in-cheek. Nigel, enjoy the rest of the day. Congratulations on a very strong result for your party. Coming up next, do reform need to worry about their right flank or Tory holdouts in the Southeast?

19:53Camilla: And how have the breast-enhancing Greens performed?

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21:16Camilla, Nigel obviously sounded very happy there. Cock a hoop, isn't he? Cock a hoop. Yes. Just to give some statistics, in Holton in Cheshire, reform gained 15 from Labour. In Wigan, which we mentioned earlier, reform gained 21 seats from Labour. And in Hartlepool, reform gained 12 seats, which was a clean sweep. And as he mentioned, they won Essex, which is the country's largest council.

21:41Camilla: And they've won Havering, which is a London borough council, which they hadn't expected to win. It's undoubtedly been an extraordinary night for him. We have got some members of the commentariat saying, well, it's not quite as good as they thought it would be. No, come on. They always do that. They always say for reform to do well, it has to win 8 million seats. And of course it doesn't. If it wins 7.9 million. And so they say it's underperforming. But this is from a standing start. It is coming from nothing to win these results. And what they're doing is they're breaking the 20th century duopoly of parties in a way that I'm not sure.

22:17An armchair historian can correct me, but I can't believe the STP did this well and sustained way for this long.

22:24Camilla: Having said that, was his answer convincing when we asked about him having to reach the parts that Johnson did in 2019? And this is the problem for him. And it comes back to your point about Richmond being the sort of waitrose town. Richmond historically has always been fought over by the Tories and the Lib Dems. Reform are simply not at the races there. They're not at the races in some home counties, seats and indeed in swathes of the southwest, because your traditional conservative stroke Lib Demmer might have been able to hold their nose to vote for Johnson, but quite liked him because he was posh and entertaining and clearly believed in Britain.

23:03Camilla: They just feel that Farage is a step too far. and therefore how is he going to win over Waitrose Woman because he's got Aldean little man. That is clear. They have absolutely hammered Labour in Northern Heartlands but they need Southern Heartlands too. Otherwise, this conversation about them having to be propped up by the Tories will persist whether they like it or not in order for him to secure enough seats at the general election. That's just electoral maths. Well, and as results come out for Wales and Scotland, it's likely to show the Celtic National Party is doing very well too. Yes. And I would argue that reform is doing well, yes, but in a fractured system, it's the biggest party.

23:46Is it yet a national majority party, which is why I asked about Scotland. Yes. To govern well in this country, you need a majority in the first-past-the-post system. You ideally also need to perform strongly across the Union. Otherwise, you are an English party. that's sort of imposing itself upon the other nations. And can reform break through in Scotland? I don't know. We'll wait and see, but I doubt it has. You think about this government. This government enjoyed that, actually. Labour is a truly national party. It won Wales and Scotland. And it did win a majority, although on a low turnout and at only around 35%.

24:28So it got lucky. It was, as people say, a loveless election. But despite that, it still couldn't get things like welfare reform passed.

24:37Camilla: No. So it feels as though the bar is becoming higher and higher for what an incoming party needs in order to govern properly. And if the state of this country is as bad as Nigel suggests, he talks about women coming up to him and touching his hands like a medieval king. Yes. Saying, heal my country. Yes. If the country is that bad, it's going to require some radical surgery, which means you need to bring as much of the country with you as you possibly can. And I still suspect that reform by tomorrow will look like an English Brexit working class party, but not quite an all union party. They could probably argue that compared to the Conservatives, they've got more of a stronghold in Scotland and Wales because the Tories look to be almost wiped out.

25:22Camilla: and then you have to question. Fascinating to see this reform rise is based on Labour votes. Yes, I know. On the working class, not on the Tory middle class, which is what one always traditionally associated Nigel and indeed Brexit with. Well, exactly. And I think the Conservatives are going to have to look at the Trade Descriptions Act if they want to continue with the word unionist in the job title, right? Yeah. If they haven't got the presence in Scotland and Wales that they used to have. Having said that, we should just say that in winning back Westminster, being the largest party in Wandsworth, not losing Bexley to reform, much as Nigel Farage was dismissive of it.

26:00Camilla: Yes. Let's not make any mistake here. Well, they won't go away. Farage would have loved to have had Bexley. The Tories won't go away. They're not going away. They're not dead and buried, are they, Tim? They're like at the end of the movie, like Carrie, when an arm suddenly thrusts out of the grave. Yes. There's still a little bit of life there to take you by surprise. They're on life support, but they're reacting to the drugs. OK, so they're still there and they'll be happy about that. But from my point of view, I am completely uninterested in Tory performance, except insofar as it prevents reform from forming a majority.

26:29And that's all I feel they exist to do. As a phenomenon themselves, I have no interest in them. And I feel much of the public feels the same way.

26:36Camilla: Although, just as you pointed out earlier, that it would be idiotic with all of these losses in the red wall for Labour to pivot further leftwards and further into Europe. Similarly, for Farage to get Waitrose Woman, he might need to moderate his politics, but he's in a difficult position to do that because he's got Restore on his right flank. Right. And it's easy to dismiss Rupert stroke Hooper low, but within reform circles, they are very worried about this rival party on the right polling above 3%. Because if they do, it can really hammer their own chances of a majority. And some people are saying, in fact, I spoke to Luke Trill on Newsnight, who is the pollster for More in Common, he says that some surveys put restore at 6%.

27:20Right.

27:21Camilla: So this whole idea of him just being completely free on the right to go and surge forward and forward isn't quite correct. Reform has flirted as well with Toryfication in the last few months by Tory defectors coming over by giving Rob Jenrick the very important job of shadow chancellor. And the price for that has been playing down some of their populist economic appeal. So if they were going to get rid of the two-child benefit cap, they decided not to anymore. And they're going to keep the Bank of England's independence, things like that. Is that the right strategy? I mean, their national polls dipped a little bit after doing that.

27:55I think some people might have looked at them and thought, you're the establishment now. But is that the right strategy when they are winning the Red Wall? Is that what people there want to hear? I don't know.

28:02Camilla: Well, also, I don't think anyone in the Red Wall is particularly impressed with the recruitment of, for instance, Nadim Zahawi. I just don't think they'll know who he is. I just don't think people will care. Yeah, but you wonder whether they've got any capital at all out of those conservative defections. I mean, when Lee Cain and Scarlett McGuire were in here, they said how viscerally hated Robert Jenrick was by people north of the Midlands, which is interesting in itself. Westminster is too obsessed with personality. It's like the chemi bounce, isn't there? It is for her personally and among those who know her.

28:31There's a great deal of admiration for her and how she's holding herself. But in the rest of the country, it's quite clear that the Reform Party is now the centre-right party. and it's the only vehicle for definitely getting a centre-right government. It doesn't mean it won't involve the Tories in perhaps a coalition or if they're minority government with supply and things like that. But right now, if you're a young person who wanted to enter Parliament as a centre-right MP, you'd look at these results and you would join Riffle.

29:00Camilla: Very quick word on the Greens. Still a lot of results to come in, so it's hard to see the picture. Clearly, they're up considerably. considerably strong gain in young student area Exeter, no surprise there, pushing Labour out of total control. They won a 31 % vote share there, Labour down to 22%. So the Greens are hammering the Labour vote as well. Labour being hammered by both sides. The results from Gaza have yet to come in. Yes, indeed. Because remember, Palestine is on the ballot. But there aren't many elections in Gaza, you know. But they're doing very well. It's a rare occurrence. No, indeed.

29:33Camilla: It's lovely that we can have elections for Gaza here in this country. That's democracy in earnest. They're doing well in Hammersmith and Fulham, Merton and Ealing, Reading, Oxford, obviously, because it's full of woke students, university towns, blah, blah, blah. I mean, that's the picture that you would have painted for the Lib Dems in yesteryear. See, I don't think Zak Polanski could win Gaza. I think if he stood. He might be too Jewish and too gay, actually. I don't think he would win. No. So the Palestine might be on his ballot, but I don't think he's on Palestine's ballot. No, I don't think he is.

30:06Camilla: Should we finish with a Telegraph poll? Love a poll. Should Starmer resign? 81 % say yes. 19 % say no. What are those Telegraph readers thinking? Are they thinking, better the devil you know, be careful what you wish for, Tim? Some are thinking the country's in a mess and part of the problem is we chop and change prime ministers too often. But to go back to the point we were discussing earlier, we may have reached a point where one of the primary causes of the chaos is Keir Starmer himself. That's us done. We've told you as much as we know. We appreciate we may be overtaken by events, but we wanted to get this podcast out early.

30:44Camilla: We will, of course, both be back on Monday, 5pm, to analyse yet more results and also, I imagine, ruminate on Keir Starmer's future.

31:20Hey, everybody. It's Farnoosh Tarabi, host of the So Money Podcast. This episode is sponsored by Smart Travel, a new podcast from NerdWallet. You know that one friend who always finds the best travel deals, picks the right cards, and somehow ends up in first class for the price of coach. Smart travel is like that friend, but in podcast form. They cover things like which travel cards earn their keep and which are just heavy, shiny metal, and the smartest ways to book flights without playing Guess the Cheapest Day. Travel smarter and spend less with help from NerdWallet. Follow smart travel wherever you get your podcasts.

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