Midterms meltdown: Will Trump be a lame duck President by Wednesday?

0:04The Telegraph. Is President Donald Trump getting old and losing it, or is his MAGA grip tighter than ever? We're just days away from the United States midterms with the prospect of a blue tsunami looming. But will Trump beat the odds, and what will be the political blowback for us on this side of the pond? We know there's going to be a blue wave, but the question is, is there going to be a blue tsunami? me. If there is a 10-point swing against Donald Trump, but that actually shows out consistently throughout the country, this is going to be an incredibly bruising night ahead for the Republican Party.

0:38My colleague and Weekend Tea star Poppy Coburn is currently in the United States. She is in Washington, D.C., where she's speaking to me right now. Poppy, how are you? I'm very good, Tim. The midterm elections are on Tuesday. There will be races for governorships across the country, for the House of Representatives and for the Senate. Right now, who do you think is going to win and by how much? Well, that's the key question. And from people I've been speaking to in D.C., everyone accepts that this is going to be a bruising time for the Republicans. Everyone knows that. That's usually what happens at midterms, even for governments where they are not historically unpopular, even when their president is not at the lowest ever approval rating since the 1920s.

1:24The question, though, is really how bad is this going to actually be? And it's been quite interesting watching pollsters try and game this out in the last couple of weeks, because we know it's going to be a blue wave. But the question is, is there going to be a blue tsunami? If there is a 10 point swing against Donald Trump, but that actually shows out consistently throughout the country. This is going to be incredibly bruising night ahead for the Republican Party. They are going to potentially lose control of the Senate in addition to the House. The House is gone. I think there's no scenario where they actually managed to hold on to the House.

1:56But the Senate is going to be the big question, because if they do lose the Senate, Donald Trump is essentially a lame duck president. He can't do anything. His hands will be completely tied. And it will also send a message to people who are thinking about putting their name into the hat for 2028 about who is actually going to carry on the legacy of MAGA or if they want to carry on the legacy at all. Let's come on to the consequences of this in a moment, but just to stick with the potential results themselves. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but the Republicans do have some surprising advantages here.

2:27One is they have redrawn the map so that they are defending stronger Republican seats. Another is they have a vast amount of money which they can spend. And the third is that the House, every seat is contested in one go. But with the Senate, it's not every seat. And because that's every six years. And right now, it just so happens that the seats that are being contested traditionally vote Republican. So it's that little bit harder for Democrats to take the Senate. Am I right? You are right. I mean, on paper, the Republicans have actually done everything right over this midterm cycle. You're right, they have redrawn the House map, which makes it very, very difficult for them to actually lose seats of Republicans.

3:13They really need to be in there. There's really not going to be that movement at all. The number of House seats actually in contention is basically vanishingly small. Most of them have been redistricted in a way that we know it's going to be Democrat. We know it's going to be Republican. They've also been pretty careful with their candidate selection this time around. Obviously, there are some high profile cases. I'm thinking of Ken Paxton, Lindsey Graham's sister, who's a real lame, dark candidate, total dud. she's bombing, she's probably going to lose the race. But as a general rule, they've been putting forward people who are not loudmouthed, because these are not Lauren Boebert's, they're actually, they're pretty smart, they're talking about affordability, they're talking about immigration, they're talking about the positive sides of Donald Trump's agenda and trying to move away from the Iran war, which is obviously causing a lot of the upset for traditional Republican voters.

3:59But there are other signs that they're not doing so well. And the one that I really can't get my head around is early voting. The Republicans seem to have absolutely dropped the ball on early voting. And there's a reason why this is voting by post, right? Yes. So we already know that a lot of people who are, some states don't actually measure whether or not you are a registered Republican or you're a registered Democrat. But for states where we do know that that's happening, we can get a pretty good picture of how, how enthused is the electorate this time, how much the Democrats will come out, and are Republicans just going to stay home and ignore this midterm election.

4:33The Democrats are turning out early voters at a level they haven't done since 2024, which is they are turning out early voters at a presidential election level. That's telling you that this is a very, very motivated base that really, really wants to help the Republicans. On the GOP side, it's been the opposite story. Donald Trump won in 24 with low propensity voters. He won with young men, Latinos, black men. They were all swinging towards the the Republicans this time around, and they're notorious for not really turning up on election day. These are low propensity voters. So it doesn't really make sense why they haven't been doing a big drive to get these people out.

5:09If they're not going to be guaranteed to turn up on election day, then it does actually feel like there's this inexorable energy that's spinning towards the Democrats actually doing very, very well. But surely it hasn't helped, Poppy, that the president himself keeps causing people to doubt the validity of postal voting. Trump's whole thing for the last few years has been that is synonymous with cheating. So if you tell Republicans don't trust postal voting, they won't do it, which relies upon them turning out on the day, which is something which relies upon a degree of enthusiasm that's probably not there.

5:42Well, we can cast our minds back to 2020. This is probably the reason that Donald Trump lost the election in 2020. He absolutely hated the idea of postal votes. And everyone around him was saying, no, we need this. Our enemies will be using this very effectively. This is something you need to win. And he ignored them. And if he's doing that again, this is going to be very damaging for his party and he will not actually have control of the legislature anymore. Let's consider some of the characters in this election, people to watch out for. Now, one which might surprise people is there is an Englishman running to be governor of California, Steve Hilton, Steve Weird Hilton.

6:18I don't, I just feel like I've banged my head and woken up in Oz here, that Steve Hilton, former advisor to David Cameron, is the Republican candidate for governor. How's he going to do? That's a fantastic question. I was actually watching a video of his earlier this morning. I saw that he'd been quote-tweeted by Spencer Pratt. He was the long-shot Republican candidate for LA mayor. And it was a video of Steve Hilton walking down what they call fentanyl block. It's him, like a really, really sketchy part of town in California. And they're just saying, like, what a great guy. And I was like, how has this happened?

6:49How is a reality TV star and still Hilton both going for political positions in California? I can't really wrap my head around it. I think it's pretty unlikely that he actually wins. But he has run a very, very impressive race. I mean, his comms have been absolutely fantastic. He's got really viral. And despite the fact that he has a British accent, he seems to be cutting through very well with the Americans, which is confusing. But he's an example for me, and we've discussed this privately before, of how the right is becoming a movement of podcasters. I mean, another example is Vivek Ramaswamy, who is running for governor in Ohio.

7:24And you might want to explain to us, I mean, you may feel differently about this, but what I thought was a pretty vile opposition ad that he put out against his Democrat rival. I actually completely demean with you, Tim. I don't know how else to describe it, but vile. It was absolutely disgusting. So a few weeks out, obviously, from the midterm election, from when he's going up against his Democratic rival, who is a lady called Amy Acton. Now, this is quite a tight race, which was not expected. This was supposed to be an open goal for Vivek Gramaswamy, but it's not. And so he pulled out essentially his trump card.

7:56And we have had reports from people saying that this was something that came from him himself. This was Vivek's idea. This was his big plan to turn the race around in the weeks before he could get fact checked and get a bit of noise and get a bit of attention. he put out an ad with Amy Acton's mother where Amy Acton's mother says that Amy is a liar and cannot be trusted and that's why she thinks that you should vote for Vivek Ramaswamy. Now we have seen incidences where there have been political campaigning ads where a family member has come forward and say don't vote for this person, most notably RFK Jr.

8:29We had some Kennedys coming forward saying this guy's a nut job, he doesn't speak for us, don't vote for him. But we've never actually seen before someone's biological mother coming out and saying, don't vote for my daughter. Yeah. So people immediately started digging into this. And pretty quickly, Amy Acton's campaign put out a statement, a really, really brutal statement saying the reason Amy Acton's mother has no contact with her daughter and made this advert with Vivek Ramaswamy is that she was married to a man who we now have court records of sexually abused Amy Acton when she was a child.

9:01So Vivek Ramaswamy platformed a woman, the mother of his Democratic candidate opponent, saying that her daughter cannot be trusted. And this woman was someone who stood by a child sex offender who abused her own daughter. Yeah, he was charged and then absconded. I mean, it is gutter politics. There's nothing else for it. And even the Republicans have found this almost impossible to justify. And these are people who are quite happy to go with pretty extreme campaigning tactics. But there have been quite a few rumbles of dissatisfaction with Vivek Ramaswamy for things he said in the past. And I think quite a few people are distancing themselves from this campaign.

9:39And I think it's actually pretty unlikely he's going to win it. And I hope he doesn't. And the thing about Vivek Ramaswamy, for those who don't know who this man is, he's this really short guy who famously wears oversized clown shoes and has mad hair that looks like he's been dragged through a hedge backwards. and he has never had an elected office before. He really entered politics by running for the presidency in 2024 when he was seen really as a cipher for the president. He's very close to the vice president, J.D. Vance. In fact, J.D. Vance named one of his children after Vivek Ramaswamy. They're that close.

10:13And he's a classic example of a tech bro podcaster who's made his whole career out of going on podcasts and saying, Western civilization is like totally under attack and has what we need to do to defend it. They all talk in this weird AI voice. It really drives me mad. And I wonder, you may disagree, if part of the blue wave, and we'll get on to Trump and we'll get on to Iran in a moment, but if part of the blue wave is actually popular middle-class revulsion at nasty politics, because I noticed that in Texas, again, a race that should not be close, the Democratic candidate James Talarico, dubbed by the president James Talafrico, is a liberal who's running as a God person, as someone who believes in God.

10:57And he said some stuff which is way out as far as most mainstream Christians are concerned, like God is non-binary and things like that. But watching him interviewed, it struck me he comes across as maybe a little odd, but basically a decent man. And that the Tanariko vote is really a rejection of the kind of very cynical Christian nationalist politics that the Trump administration has been marinating in. Well, that race is a great example because then look at his opponent, Ken Paxton. This is a man who is just dripping with sleeves. He is the kind of polar opposite. And I'm not necessarily sure we're going to a position where, and I think people have been hoping this moment would come, which is people are finally going to stand up and say, you know, there are things about the Trump administration that are actually morally pretty indefensible.

11:44And I'm not talking about immigration policy here. I'm talking about the corruption, the scandals, the sleaze, the total disregard for all norms and decency, etc, etc, etc. I don't necessarily know if we've got to that point yet, but there was something quite interesting somebody said about the Al-Sayed campaign, which is currently running in Michigan. He is running on a platform of economic populism. We don't want to involve ourselves anymore with these cultural stories. We're the normal people that want to bring your gas prices down. We're the people that want to get involved in wars in the Middle East.

12:14they've basically this is a muslim democratic senatorial candidate yeah carry on who is who is a progressive and a radical um but he's campaigning in a very very smart way which is he's basically taken the trump playbook and he's turning it back around and saying the republicans are actually caught up in this cultural stuff the republicans are getting us involved in these foreign wars that are putting your gas bills up that are making it difficult for you to put food on the table for your family we're just trying to make life easier for you that they're running a very effective cost of Living campaign.

12:42And I think that's a big part of it too. You know, at risk of repeating the slightly disastrous cope that was around with the, oh, you know, these guys are just weirdos, they're just freaks, which is what Kamala Harris tried to wail into existence with her disastrous campaign. I do think people are turning around and saying, times are really tough for us. We just want candidates that are going to ease that pain. We don't want to have to relitigate this weird stuff. We don't want these nasty people who are out for themselves and trying to enrich themselves anymore. Talking about weirdness, let's listen to the president talk about John Husted, who was an incumbent Republican senator, and his amazing bottom.

13:16I'm studying his body. I've never studied the body of a man before. It's not my thing. Nothing wrong with it, of course. I always proceeded by saying nothing wrong, but it's never been my thing, to be honest with you. but I looked at his ass and then I looked at his legs and I said his ass is shit it's like a pile of muscle then I looked at his legs and I said Ben his feet are big then I looked at his shoulders and I tapped him on the shoulder and it actually hurt my hand it was like a piece of steel Bobby I've been covering Trump for a decade now and his performances have always been surreal and highly amusing.

14:07Is there a hint of he's getting old and losing it? Because I know some people try to suggest that, or is this just Trump as he's always been and that's the way people choose to perceive it because they think he looks weak at the moment? I'm going to have to completely disagree with you here, Tim. I think in another life, had Donald Trump not actually gone into politics, he would have been a wonderful panel guest on RuPaul's Drag Race. you know he's been making statements like this for such a long time every single time i think this man you know i'm done with trump uh you know he's betrayed so many of his promises and then you see a clip like that and you go he's the funniest person alive he is the funniest person alive he's been doing stuff like this for quite a long time he has a stock phrase that he likes using and there's been a few books that have um you know reported on this the most recent one was the um regime change book was the maggie haggerman book very very well insider reporting about the trump campaign second time around.

15:01And something he says all the time to attractive men is he's straight out of central casting. I need him. I need Pete Hegstaff. He's straight out of central casting. He's handsome. He's good on TV. So he's been doing this for a long time. Going back to the serious point of the question, is Donald Trump slowing down? You need only watch a clip of him from 2016. He's not as sharp as he was. This is unsurprising. By the time he's done with his term, he's going to be 82 years old. He's not Joe Biden. He's obviously quicker on his feet than other very elderly politicians in America. But I don't really think he's got that kind of quickness, that sharpness that he had a decade ago now.

15:38And that's not really surprising given his advanced age. If, as you have said, it's a given that Democrats are enthused and many have already voted and therefore so much hinges upon Republican turnout, does it matter that there are some voices among the Republicans who really have turned on Donald Trump. I'm thinking of right-wing critics of the Iran war like Tucker Carlson. Is them, I don't know if Tucker's said this, but is people like them coming out and saying stay home, is that going to have any kind of effect on the result? I don't think so, particularly not for races where it's going to be tight and it's going to depend on independence.

16:14I mean, I think people will stay home because of the Iran war, but I'm not necessarily sure it's going to be connected to different currents within the Republican Party. But this is very, very significant for 2028. It's totally significant for 2028. J.D. Vance at the moment is the person that everyone is talking about. Marco Rubio doesn't want to run the race this time around. He doesn't want a really bloody knife fight. He just wants to say, like, I'm not getting involved. Let's get it to J.D. Now, Donald Trump is unpredictable. We don't actually know what's going to happen come primary season.

16:42But at the moment, it looks like J.D. Vance is going to be the candidate. And what has J.D. Vance made very, very clear from the beginning of his political career? He does not like foreign war. And there were early briefings coming out in the early days of the Iran war that J.D. Vance was not happy and that he was being overruled and that he was warning Donald Trump that it was a mistake. And I do wonder if that's going to be a bit of a gift for him as this war continues to rumble on. Nothing's actually been achieved yet. Nothing's actually we can say, well, that was a mistake, but it's all over and done with now.

17:10No, no, this war is still hot. It's still ongoing. Bombing is now still happening again. And I wonder if this is going to help J.D. Vance if he can, can't do it now, but maybe in a couple of years time, is start to distance himself from some of the mistakes that came about from Trump to Trump turn T, rather than run the risk of having all of the Tucker Carlson contingent completely turn against him. From being in America itself, do you get a sense of what how life has changed as a result of the war? Is it is it feeding into a cost of living crisis in the way it is here? it's remarkable how many campaign slogans particularly from the democrats have been about affordability um and i think that they've realized that there's a gap in the market here and it's you know i'm not seeing these voters i'm in dc at the moment but i've been speaking to people who have the rural voters that vote pretty much 90 republican always do vote 90 republican they are really angry and that's not to say they're going to turn out and vote for the dems but they're probably just going to stay home.

18:09And the reason for that is twofold. One, they're really, really angry with some of the strange trade deals that Donald Trump has been trying to do, which has actually hurt their businesses. And two, the cost of diesel. If you're rural, it's not just that you need it for your car. You need it to heat your home. You need it for your industrial machinery. You need it to run your farm properly. So suddenly the people that Donald Trump said, I will protect you. You are my base. You are totally integral to my political project. They are the people who are getting screwed over most by the Iran war. And I do not think they're actually going to turn up on polling day.

18:38And if that does happen, that's enough for the Republicans to really be smarting on Tuesday morning. They often say when America sneezes, Britain catches a coal. Do you think there'll be some sort of political blowback from the results on Tuesday for Britain? I think the most damaging effects if this is a bad day for the Republicans, for the UK, will actually be that Donald Trump suddenly cannot get his domestic agenda through. And what will Donald Trump do when he cannot get his domestic agenda through? where he will turn to foreign policy and he will continue using executive orders. And we should be incredibly concerned about that from the perspective of British people, because it means he may continue starting wars and he may literal wars, hot wars like the Iran war.

19:17And he may also continue doing trade wars, putting tariffs on friendly countries, antagonizing allies again. So I actually think this could be pretty dangerous if Donald Trump gets a real shellacking on Tuesday morning, because he's suddenly going to turn his attention now to the rest of the world and he can't get his domestic agenda through. And we're going to be the people who are most vulnerable on that. There's a parallel there, is there not, with Benjamin Netanyahu, who has just lost an election, but not enough to actually be removed from power. And people are speculating what might he do while he's caretaker prime minister.

19:48I just find it fascinating how the two characters, their fate seem to be entwined. They always seem to rise and fall alongside each other. Netanyahu's also learned some lessons from 2020 and what Donald Trump did. when he lost that election, which is he started testing the waters on saying that there's been election fraud. And so, yeah, these two men's political identities really are very tightly bound up. And as soon as the election happened, Netanyahu said the Arab parties had tried to steal it, which was extraordinary. Final question. I assume. So, again, we are assuming a lot here that the Republicans will lose and the Democrats will win enough to take the Senate, which is a difficult thing for them to do because they are contesting safe Republican seats.

20:28But if they manage to pull it off, can we assume Donald Trump is going to be impeached for a third time? I think this is actually very unlikely. Someone will probably put it forward. Someone will probably try and impeach him. But I really, really doubt they're going to spend this two years, which could be pretty vital for them. They're going to be thinking about 28, wasting their time yet again trying to impeach Donald Trump. Unless it's an entirely spiteful personal issue, it doesn't make political sense at all to actually waste your political capital in that way. by going after Donald Trump with an impeachment.

21:00But there are other ways in which they could bog down the administration with legal stuff. I mean, they could just insist upon seeing things, couldn't they? They could drag people before committees. They can really grind it down with investigations. The corruption that I think is really proliferated under the second Trump term, and that's not to say there hasn't been corruption under Joe Biden, just look at some of the COVID procurement contracts that were coming out, but it really has been incredibly brazen this time around. And I think you're right, Tim. But some of these people are hauled in front of central committees and asked about where they've been getting their money from and how they've been awarding contracts.

21:33It's going to be very, very, very damaging for the base, particularly when we're having an affordability crisis, which the Americans are struggling from right now. Poppy Coburn in Washington, D.C., thank you very much.

21:51I'm now joined by Greg Swenson, who is the chairman of Republicans Overseas UK. Greg is in Illinois right now, but I know you have been in Texas, where there's a very important race, which we'll come to. Can I just start by asking, what is the mood among Republicans? It's a tough season ahead, isn't it? Yeah. What are their chances, and who are they blaming it on if it's not going to go well? Yeah, I'm not sure if there's any blame, really. I mean, the president is not polling well. That's clear. But, you know, presidents in their second term don't really poll well. I mean, that's not unusual.

22:25Even Barack Obama was at 41 and a half at this point in his term. And President Trump's in the high 38, 38 point something. So, you know, I think it's it's just history. You know, 47 of the last 49 midterms were won by the party out of power or the opposition party. So, you know, we don't expect any different outcome. I'm already basically conceding the House, the House of Representatives. I'm just hoping that we hold the Senate. There's five toss-up Senate seats. The Democrats would have to win three of the five in order to win the election, and Texas is one of those. But the very fact, Greg, that they are possibles is unusual.

23:09I mean, this season, I take what you're saying, that midterms are often bad for the incumbent. Sometimes in the past, they've done better than expected, 98 under Clinton, even Joe Biden in 2022. But this season ought to be really favorable for the Republicans because you're defending Senate seats in places like South Carolina and Kansas. And yet you're struggling to win even Texas. And just to say last time Texas was really in contention with Beto O 'Rourke, the Democrat, ran, he never ran ahead of the Republican in polls. He was always slightly behind and he lost. Whereas James Tallarico, the Democrat this time around, is actually running ahead.

23:49So you're doing unusually badly, even by historic standards. No, you're right. I mean, look, we have a favorable map. In other words, we're not defending as many seats and we're not defending as many seats, especially in purple states or swing states. I think Michigan and North Carolina, Georgia. But, you know, I think Texas is really specific because we have a candidate who is not very popular, even in Texas. You know, you've got mainstream, you know, traditional sort of country club Republicans not supporting him in Texas like the Bushes and other and Karl Rove, for example. So, yeah, I don't think that was a wise choice of a candidate.

24:29I thought the president made a mistake by endorsing him in the primaries. And now we have, you know, neck and neck. Now, you mentioned Beto O 'Rourke. You know, he was polling slightly behind Ted Cruz and ended up losing by 10 points. So, you know, these these polls are difficult. But I'm not disagreeing with you, though. I mean, we are experiencing a difficult election cycle. And you mentioned some of the Republicans who are not keen on Trump-endorsed candidates. When this is all over and when the Trump administration comes to an end, is there going to be a fight within the GOP over the kind of Republican Party that it wants to be?

25:05Are there some people going to say, let's please move back to the more traditional Reaganite conservatism that was there before Trump? So a two part answer. One is, I don't think we're going back to what I would describe as the country club Republican, the George Bush, Mitt Romney, John McCain. And but but I don't agree that it's a, you know, a throwback to Reagan. I mean, President Trump, believe it or not, is very similar to Ronald Reagan, maybe not in his personality, but surely in his in his his focus on supply side economics, for example, his focus on peace through strength, you know, being a defense hawk.

25:41So in many ways, it is a throwback to the Reagan administration, not with the landslide victories he had, but I don't think that will ever happen again. I don't think winning 44 states or like he did in 1980 or 49 states like he did in 84. I don't think that that will ever happen again. But in many ways, you know, again, the president is a throwback to Reagan. but I don't think we're going back to the country club Republican, even if we don't have President Trump on the ballot, obviously. The one thing that some might say Reagan did was keep the peace. Yes, he went to war on Grenada, but that was a very short and simple war to fight, whereas Donald Trump has chosen a very difficult enemy in the case of Iran.

26:25And I suppose that's the elephant in the room, isn't it? that there are some conservatives are angry because they feel he has created the economic conditions that are now putting them at risk in this election, which is why some candidates are distancing themselves from his foreign policy. Yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, it's not popular. I mean, I would argue I'm glad he did it because, you know, we've sort of been at war with Iran for 47 years and every president from both parties has said Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And they've expressed, you know, hawkish tone, but never really did anything about it.

27:00So but but yeah, look, four dollar gas is four dollar gas. So that's a problem in any for any party during an election season in 2022, where gas prices or petrol was around the same level. The average in 22 is 425. And that's where gas prices are now per gallon. You know that that was not popular then. And that was really made it difficult for President Biden. That's why he was releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It's why he sent Jake Sullivan, his national security advisor, sent him to Moscow to beg Putin to pump more oil. So, you know, President Trump's in the same spot. Every other metric in the economy is doing well.

27:40In fact, you know, core inflation out, you know, outside of gas prices is moderating completely. You know, food prices were up 2.2 percent year over year. In the last midterms in 2022, they were up 7.7 percent. So unfortunately, I don't think we've messaged that well. I think, you know, the polls are favoring Democrats on the economy, which is hysterical to me. I think it's almost embracing affordability is almost laughable coming from the Democrats who caused the inflation. But reality is reality. $4 gas is a real headwind for Republicans right now. When the Democrats last pulled off a big win, like this, if it happens in 2006, a 50-state strategy in the congressional races that was masterminded by Howard Dean, that was very much about reaching out to the center.

28:32So they flipped states like Montana by running moderates. A big difference this time is that a group of Democrats are likely to be elected being dubbed the bloc, who are essentially socialists rather than liberals. How would you characterize the new Democratic Party? Are Americans in punishing Donald Trump on the brink of electing a very different kind of Democratic caucus? Yeah, really good point, Tim. I mean, it's a really dangerous and almost surprising tilt to the progressive radical left. And, you know, you pointed out 2006 that was led by, you know, the blue dog, so-called blue dog Democrats, which were very moderate.

29:16They were pro-gun rights. You know, they were sort of moderates on taxing and spending. So they did really well. But since Obama, they've really shifted to the progressive left, you know, starting with again in 2009 with Obama. That's what that's what bred the Tea Party movement for Republicans. It was really a rejection of of Obama progressivism. And so, yeah, this is a completely different party. And I think, you know, we have a chance of of winning some of those races because you have the argument of, you know, common sense versus crazy. And we have real radicals in Maine and Michigan states that, you know, are the Democrats could easily win.

29:56They still might win. But I think they would have had a much better chance with with more moderate candidates. But but, you know, we'll see. It's going to be super, super tight. it's possible that a muslim candidate will be elected in michigan for the democrats arab americans showed some support for donald trump in 2016 when he ran for president that has been blown away in part because of the president's remarks about the senatorial candidate calling him a jihadist and calling him a hamed and things like that um isn't it kind of sad to watch donald trump blow up a coalition that for a while looked like it might actually become surprisingly diverse?

30:37Yeah, you know, he did really well in 2024, you know, where he didn't necessarily win those identity groups, but he did much better with those identity groups, you know, you know, double digit pickups with a variety of different groups. And so, yeah, I don't think he played that perfectly. But, you know, he's got a point. And that's why a lot of African Americans, a lot of especially Jewish voters in Michigan, that are traditional Democrats will not be supporting El Saeed. Greg Swenson, thank you very much. Great to be here. Thanks for having me.