'Resign!' End of days for Starmer premiership

0:02The Telegraph

0:10His Scottish leader has come out against him. His chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, has resigned and Keir Starmer has also lost his head of communications, Tim Allen. It feels like the end of days for the Prime Minister. Can he last the week? And, first of all, they raided the homes of Peter Mandelson. Now police are assessing new information, suggesting that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor may have also leaked confidential information to Geoffrey Epstein. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Kim Il-Otomini. And me, Tim Stanley.

0:53Tim, the Prime Minister says he is both confident and upbeat, but this is what Anasawa, his leader in Scotland, is saying. I am clear that I have to do what's right for my country, Scotland. This isn't easy and it's not without pain, as I have a genuine friendship with Keir Starmer. But my first priority and my first loyalty is to my country, Scotland. And I am not willing to sacrifice Scotland's NHS, our schools, our communities, our towns, cities, villages and islands to a third decade of an SNP government. That's why the distraction needs to end and the leadership in Downing Street has to change.

1:39That was a strange press conference. Yes. Anna Sarwa, leader of the Scottish Labour Party, not a member of Cabinet. So what's the point of it? What is the point, heading into the May local elections in Scotland, of the head of Scottish Labour saying, I believe the UK needs a different Prime Minister? does this mean that if Keir Starmer stays in position, he intends to resign? Yes. Now, a little bit of internal political context. It is believed that the Scottish parliamentary contingent are allied to West Streeting. And there was talk a month ago reported in this newspaper of Scottish Labour bigwigs, perhaps Sawa, perhaps not, trying to build momentum for a Streeting coronation.

2:22Ah, that explains it then. So perhaps it's got something to do with that. Although Sawa and Streeting both aligned to Peter Mandelson. Oh, I know, but everyone was. We're distancing himself, but actually there's a tweet in existence describing Mandelson as his old friend, quotes, unquote. A funny moment when Sawa was asked whether he had discussed this rushed press conference with the Prime Minister in advance. Yes, I spoke to the Prime Minister earlier today and I think it's safe to say that he and I disagreed. Also, we were chuckling away, weren't we, and he kept on going on about all the great things Labour had achieved that he couldn't actually name.

2:57Twice he said Labour had done many good things in office, but he didn't give us examples of them. But again, if things are so catastrophically bad that you're calling for your leader to go, then we can infer from that that things are not going well. Otherwise, you wouldn't want your Labour leader to go. No. And only last week in Parliament, I heard Keir Starmer saying to the SNP, Scotland is Anasawa. Yes. So he's been something of a golden boy in Labour. But Sarwar, with this hastily arranged backstabbing of the Prime Minister, is obviously thinking about one thing, and that is Scottish Labour is going to get wiped out in May.

3:38He probably can't prevent that from happening. But if he attacks Starmer now, he could frame it as Starmer's fault, not Anna Sarwar's fault. Yes. And so we've got to divide now. Now, it's one thing to lose staff. It's quite another to lose political allies. Yes. It should be noted. So Sawa's gone in that direction. It should be noted who have gone in the other direction, Tim. So we've had a statement from Lammy talking about the Prime Minister's mandate. He must stay in post. Steve Reid, the Housing Secretary, he supported him. We've also had dismissives from his bestie, Lord Hermer. Well, Natch, obviously.

4:16They're like little peas in pods. Darren Jones said the battle for Britain in the years ahead is between a modern, diverse Britain led by Labour or a dark, divisive Britain under reform. Yes. One could argue if they carry on with their net zero policy, things will be pretty dark under Labour too. And as for divisive, the country doesn't feel like it's healing at the moment either. But it's so interesting that what does he use to scare Labour MPs into supporting the Prime Minister? Not the Conservatives, but reform. And who is Labour worried about being eclipsed by in Scotland? not the Conservatives or the SNP, but reform.

4:54And it's thought that's one reason why MPs are pushing for a street-in coronation up there, because they think he would do a better job of taking on Nigel Farage. A little bit unfair on the Tory leader, considering that she was the one that identified the smoking gun. She did. In Prime Minister's questions on Wednesday. You know, Nigel Farage is not at the races here. No. He is in an opposition role where he can argue this case against the Prime Minister of the Despatch Box. He has played no part in exposing this story. Doing his own reform thing. He said that Mandelstin was a very clever appointment, etc, etc.

5:25So to be fair, Badenock should be taking credit for all this, but is as ever not getting enough. Yeah. But then again, Nigel Farage has not been linked to Mandelstin or Epstein. Nick Candy, who is a property developer linked to reform, has been. But there's no suggestion of scandal there. But the problem Farage faces is he doesn't get to interrogate the prime minister across the dispatch box. So therefore, he just hasn't had an opportunity to own this issue in the way that Kemi Badenock has. Wednesday's shaping up to be quite relevant, isn't it? I can't wait to find out who's going to be there.

6:01It'd be fascinating to see if Keir Starmer is the person facing Kemi Badenock. I thought he had until May. But Anna Tsarwaran coming out and saying this does make one start to think, has he got days, not weeks? So we've had the staff exodus, Morgan McSweeney resigning, as you and I predicted last week on the Daily Tea, Tim. Then suddenly we had the departure of Tim Allen. He's the head of communications at Number 10. A bit of a surprise. Nobody really saw it coming. Nobody knew they had a head of communications. No one knew they were trying to communicate. No, well, apparently they've had four during the Prime Minister's tenure and none of them seem to have done brilliantly.

6:41And they currently have four different people within Number 10 who work in some way on PR. Which is surprising in itself, considering how bad the PR has been over the course of recent days and weeks. Who better to discuss all these matters with than Tim Allen's predecessor, former director of communications at Number 10 under Boris Johnson, Lee Cain. He is the founder of the strategic advisory firm Charles B Strategy. Welcome to The Daily Tea, Lee. Lovely to see you. First of all, can we just discuss the significance of Anna Sarwar's statement? I mean, there's a lot of parallels with the sort of fall of Boris's premiership.

7:19If you look at, is it Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader who, again, called for Boris to go. And then I think he reversed verities. And I remember, I think. Yes, I think so. I think he did reverse verities, didn't he? But, you know, so that will be damaging. Again, it brings that sort of chaos. it brings that feeling of, you know, and you hear all of Ranker in the sort of parliamentary party. The big thing is when someone in the cabinet starts to move. And I think having, because I was obviously, I was not in number 10 when Boris left, that sort of period of time was another iteration of, you know, a team.

7:55I was in there, obviously, when Dominic was sort of, you know, the Barnard Castle story and that kind of thing. And again, when you're in number 10, in that kind of crisis, when the sort of Eye of Sauron focuses entirely on number 10. You turn on the TV and all the TVs are sort of the news outlets covering what's going on in the building. It's very sort of surreal Truman Show style. And it's incredibly oppressive. You feel the weight. I remember on Dominic's situation, sort of day one, you know, you're like, yeah, you can feel it's a big story. There's a reason why these things sort of day three, day four, you sort of hit that crunch point because it's almost like, I don't know the analogy, but on the Star Wars film where the walls come in and you can see the walls come in, the space is getting smaller.

8:43Yeah, when they're in the garbage. Yeah. They're in the trash. So the walls come into the place and it's a very oppressive, kind of gloomy inside building anyway. So you just feel this relentless pressure building. And with Dominic, the thing that saved him with conversations we had with members of the cabinet, which was, you know, we need support. And as soon as the cabinet started to come out, I think Rishi came out in support and then Michael came out in support. Didn't last long. And then the narrative shifted and I think people felt that, OK, this guy's probably not going to go, therefore I don't want to make an enemy, so I will get back in line and there's a sort of party management issue.

9:24If that had gone the other way, then, and that's what Boris, the second time round, when he was looking for friends, Saj went over the top and called to resignation Rishi soon afterwards and then the whole thing crumbles because if you've lost the confidence of your colleagues What's your take on Tim Allen's departure? I'm relatively surprised I could only assume it's a good day to resign quietly so I'm sure the sort of PR man in him will think if there's a reason why I think I might be moving forward anyway it's probably a good day to sort of bury by news as they say Because he said, I have decided to stand down to allow a new number 10 team to be built.

10:04Does he mean including the prime minister? Is that like a little sort of, because he was close to Peter Mandelson. So who knows, maybe that has precipitated his early departure. Equally, he was briefed against somewhat. He was criticized because he was associated with the old Blairite regime of being an analog PR in a digital time, which probably didn't go down very well with him. But this is the thing, right? I suppose when we're looking at this end of days scenario, well, is it end of days? What do you think? Yes, I think it's been end of days for quite some time. But with all these things, it's almost like a game of bookaroo.

10:43You're never quite sure which piece is going to flip the horse. But I think it's been really clear for a long time that there is no direction with this government. There is no real project. There is no purpose to it. It broadly seems to be bouncing from one catastrophe to another. And that's what happens when you don't have that sort of project. What are we trying to achieve? What is our purpose? It's very sort of lawyeristic. Let's go. We've got today. We're going to focus on this issue. Then tomorrow it's that issue. And then it's the next one bouncing around. There's no narrative. There's no theme.

11:17And if you think of what is the moral story you're trying to tell the public, I really can't see what that is. and that always ends up in this kind of where you just bounce from crisis to crisis to crisis because you're not shaping events, you're being shaped by them. I think we've seen that for quite a long time with this administration. Lee, correct me if I'm wrong, but so far I believe only one person has resigned from Keir Starmer's cabinet over policy. That is, they fell out over an actual policy and walked off and I think that was Annalise Dodds. Otherwise, actually quite a disciplined cabinet.

11:50All the trouble is coming from inside number 10. The dissent is in the PM's own ranks. I think that's entirely accurate. And it's a really damning sign, I think, of any administration when you have high churn of your sort of key people. I think when you look at from day one with Keir Starmer, his recruitment's been incredibly poor. I think it's an area of politics actually doesn't get enough focus. Any sort of business will tell you, you know, it starts with people. Good recruitment, round pegs, round holes, people, people, people. In politics, often it's quite an aside and people don't really think of recruitment.

12:32They don't really think of structures in that way. But if you look at Keir Starmer, from day one you had Sue Gray, an exceptionally talented civil servant. But you wouldn't necessarily sit down and think this should be the person doing our political strategy post-election. It's a totally wrong appointment for that kind of role. And there were ethical questions over whether or not she should even have been doing it because she was a career civil servant. Correct. Well, also, to be fair, she was the one who conducted the party gate report into your former boss so that it was controversial. His historic links with her courted controversy.

13:06But even just in terms of who is the best person available for the task that we have, you would look at that and think this isn't the right person for this. and you can broadly go through the various how many communications chiefs have they had now in number 10? Four I think. And this isn't the, you know, all of these people are very capable professionals that, you know, they all know what they're doing broadly speaking within communications. The reason they're not lasting in the job is because the principal, the prime minister has no narrative, has no idea of what he's trying to do. It's very difficult to, you know, have good comms sort of in brackets.

13:45It's if your principal doesn't really know what he's trying to achieve. He doesn't really know what his purpose is. And all number 10s are a reflection of the principal. You go through the last sort of three or four prime ministers and you sort of see they're all a reflection of the principal. And I think in Keir Starmer's, it's that drift, that sort of almost pointlessness. And the easy way out of that for a period of time is, oh, we just need better advisors around. We had a lot of this. You need better advisors. If we had better advisors, it would be fine and all these problems would be solved because identifying the fact that the principles of the problem is a very, very difficult challenge, obviously, to resolve if you're the Labour Party.

14:25But getting a new communications director, getting a new policy delivery person and all these sort of things is quite relatively straightforward. And we've seen new people come in, but the problems remain because the problems are unfortunately with the prime minister. But then does the prime minister see that? Like when we're in an end of days scenario, who are the people tapping them on the shoulder? Is your role, if you're still serving the Prime Minister, to G up the Prime Minister and ensure that statements like he's feeling confident and upbeat and isn't going anywhere are served up to the press?

14:59Like what's the difference between what is actually said behind closed doors with what is released externally? So I think the Prime Minister himself has to be the person who drives mood, morale, all those sorts of things in Number 10. I think when I worked for Boris, there was sort of half a dozen people, myself, the Cabinet Secretary, Helen McNamara as well, James Slack, Dominic Cummings and Eddie Lister, who could go in, close the door one-to-one and have a tough conversation and say the thing that we just totally wrong, totally disagree. So he built an environment where he allowed people to come in and challenge.

15:39That was sort of welcomed. And he had capable people around him that would provide that challenge. The more iterations of a team you have, you tend to find that challenge sort of dissipates somewhat. People haven't known you suddenly for 10 years. And Morgan's spent the last sort of six, seven, eight years within building this project. That experience, that time is incredibly valuable just to know what they need. When did they need a kick at the backside? And when did they need a bit of an arm around the shoulder sort of thing? You know the person. Suddenly you're surrounded by people who have known you for a matter of months, probably, on the commendation of someone else you know.

16:14Talent doesn't want to go into number 10 because they look at it and go, probably not a long-term job prospect this. So you tend to get sort of D and C players around you then instead of A players at the start. So the whole thing starts to erode and you can see that before your eyes. And I think, you know, the challenge for Keir is can you rebuild everything? And I've seen no evidence at all that he could build it the first time. What I'm getting at is, because you're Prime Minister, are you, like, in your own little bubble, impervious to the criticism? You're saying about him leading the morale.

16:48I'm just interested in the psychology of all this. Do we have these situations where people are at the top of these ivory towers, not really knowing what's going on beneath them, or will he be acutely aware and just fighting for his political life and therefore trying to rally the troops against all the odds? That's what I'm trying to get at. Or do we think this guy knows he's finished? He's just calculating his exit strategy. To which I would add two observations about Starmer's personality. One, he's very keen on maintaining a wall between private and public life. So he famously has his Friday nights when there's no politics.

17:24There's just the meal with the family, football with friends. So this is not someone who is necessarily reading or listening to what we're all saying. No. Well, he was at Arsenal on Saturday. Right. He's not really in the pundit loop. Looking happy as Larry. And there's some strength in that because you get prime ministers who obsess over what the press is saying, like John Major, and they can become handicapped by it. So that's one thing. And the second thing is he has this strong sense of his own virtue. Yes. I think he really believes he had nothing to do with this. He was lied to. The security services let him down because they didn't pet Peter Mandelson properly.

17:54Yes. So this all adds up to who can speak to a man like that and tell them either you've got to change or you've got to go. I think it's very difficult. I'd actually liken Kier in many ways to Rishi Sunak. I think there's a lot of similarities in terms of these are two decent men, sort of men you broadly would want in public life, hardworking, intelligent sort of people. And they've succeeded all the way through their respective careers. And then suddenly you end up in a job like number 10, you're the prime minister, and you're not very good at it. No. And you don't... I remember at the start of Keir's term, there was a lot of briefing of it.

18:33Isn't it fantastic that he's not a political person? He doesn't do politics. Isn't that brilliant? The country wants this. And it's almost... You had one job. I've got an accountant who can't count. Hates numbers. It's a really... Because that job is all politics. Everything that comes through the door are the most difficult problems because if they're not, they've been solved somewhere else. They're all sort of 50-50 political decisions that you have to sort of navigate and look at. How do I make this decision and build the sort of broadest possible coalition? Not to alienate people trying to get the decision right, all those things.

19:09It's all politics. And if you're not good at politics, like Rishi Sunab is not good at politics, Keir is not good at politics, you can't outsource that. And I think probably McSweeney's played an oversized role in providing that politics. So I would suspect now we're going to see an even quicker disintegration because who are the people going to be advising him now again? Well, I'll tell you a couple of them. He's brought in two of McSweeney's deputies, Vidya Alekerson and Jill Cuthbertson, in the interim to cover that chief of staff role jointly. To the end of the season to avoid relegation kind of thing, isn't it?

19:47Possibly, yeah. It is also interesting that McSweeney, who was accused of running a boys' club in No. 10, has been replaced by two women. I should note that one of them, Alekerson, is really a think tanker. One of those people I think you could legitimately say has never had a proper job. And the second one, Cuthbertson, goes so far back she worked for Cherie Blair. Then there was talk over the weekend as if she hasn't got enough jobs to do. This is like the Miss Rabbit from Peppa Pig of government, Louise Casey, who's currently undertaking about 15 different reviews. There was talk that she might be Keir Starmer's right-hand woman.

20:22And bless her heart, God help her, she's got enough on her hands. Because she's looking into the whole social care thing. And again, with that, though, to do what? I don't know. Louis Cates is an incredibly talented individual, but what is the job that you want them to do? How is that going to fit within the structures? All of these things, it's panic, it's reaction, it's what gets us through this news cycle. That's all I'm thinking about now. How do we survive a news cycle? Not how do we build a serious operation that can provide the change that they promised at the last election. There is no chance of that.

20:54And I think it is a matter of time. And I think some of it, I felt with, for example, going back to Rishi, he sort of quit by almost electoral suicide. I will have a quick election because I just don't want to do this anymore. Yes, he definitely didn't want to do it. Because I think it's a very hard job to quit, so to speak. Yes. So I think that was his way. How will, you know, I suspect the locals will be the flashpoint. You know, we've got a by-election on the horizon. the local elections are going to be incredibly painful for the Labour Party. The focus groups that I've been sat in recently, they are damning on Starmer in particular, more than I expected because you wouldn't think people would find him such a sort of offensive character, but there was a real sort of visceral mood against him and the Labour Party.

21:40So I think that's going to translate in the locals. He is sort of hated. But it's funny because you're talking about this man who thinks he's operating on a higher plane that I think Kemi Badenok made this point last week. His self-righteousness is almost his biggest flaw. There is no more overrated virtue than virtue itself because it blinkers him to the reality of the depth of the doo-doo that he is in. And virtue is usually accompanied by hypocrisy. Roll the clip. I had 8 ,000 staff for five years as the director of public prosecution. And I acted, I hope, in the right way with them, which is when they had victories, I celebrated on their behalf.

22:20I picked up awards on their behalves. And when they made mistakes, I carried the can. I never turn on my staff and you should never turn on your staff. That's Keir Starmer when he was running for leader of the Labour Party, saying that he doesn't like to blame the staff. And of course, what is it he spent the last few days doing? Blaming the staff. who, we should add, say recollections may vary. Yes. Because although Morgan McSweeney, when he resigned, acknowledged some responsibility for the appointment of Peter Mandelson, he also, through various friends, has suggested that he wasn't pushing for him.

23:01No. That it was a group decision to hire him. And that Jonathan Powell, now security advisor to the Prime Minister, had a huge hand in it. Another name from history. I know. That's the striking thing to go back to when he was running for leader, as Lee was saying, when you don't know what the project is about. And you've got to remember the Labour Party at that time had been decimated. They had very few MPs who could have been leader. He was running against Rebecca Long-Bailey. Yes. To be leader of the Labour Party. Remember her. And Keir was more palatable to most members because he was regarded as a militant Remainer.

23:32So he was elected as a Remainer, as someone who pledged to keep the Corbyn Manifesto and remained loyal to it and who had called Corbyn a friend. But really, there was no one else who could have done it. So he was elected by historical chance. He didn't come in because he had a project. He then invited other people to write his project for him. One of whom was Morgan McSweeney. But he also had to hire a great number of people to do key jobs because they had lost so many people under Corbyn. And he just brought back all the Blair people. As Steve Richards has pointed out, this is historically very unusual.

24:06When Tony Blair entered number 10 in 1997, He didn't bring back people like Joe Haynes from the Wilson and Callaghan era. But that's the equivalent. It's 18 years versus 14. It's very similar. But Starmer bring Tim Allen, Blair, Morgan McSweeney, Blair Wright, Jonathan Powell from the Blair era. These are all people who had just got one foot in the past, and he invited them to cook up his project. I think if we look back at when these people were appointed at the start, though, I'm pretty sure you would see many column inches of what a stroke of genius it would be. to bring back proven winners.

24:41Oh, God. There's still, I think, a sort of Westminster obsession with the sort of Blair government. That is generational. Of Halcyon days. I agree. They obsess about how it started and forget how it finished. Do you think Boris is enjoying this? I suspect so. There's a bit of Schadenfreude going on, isn't there? I actually always felt with Boris is one of the main reasons And he didn't survive as prime minister is because Keir Starmer was head of the Labour Party. And he would say, I remember we do PMQ prep, and he would often say, thank God it's not blur on the other side of the benches. He was very aware that Keir Starmer was not a good political operator.

25:23And I think almost relaxed too much in the fact that I don't need to worry about this guy. He's not very good at politics. His assessment was entirely right, but I think it led to him making his own mistakes, not being worried enough about the need of the opposition. Well, he was the best person to prosecute Partygate because of his loyally nature, so he did do something right. That's true. And he was relentless, and because of his sense of virtue, remember how offended he was when people suggested that he might have had an illicit curry during lockdown. And some beers. Because of his sense of virtue, he was able to play a role during that of public inquisitor, which was sometimes quite compelling.

26:02But again, it was a gift. Partygate was a gift to Keir because he couldn't really attack Boris on policy because he wanted to move beyond Brexit. Keir didn't want to be at the dispatch box arguing against Brexit. What is there really to say about COVID era policy? Labour wanted to shut down even more than the Tory government did. so much easier to just call the Tories sleazy than to actually criticize their policy or philosophy I know but then that has made him so much more vulnerable now it has because he was elected on that ticket wasn't he was elected on the I am not like Horace Johnson I am not a liar I am not going to be embroiled in scandal after scandal because I am literally the second coming yeah I'm like the political equivalent of the next messiah yes and now we all discover no you're just another naughty boy.

26:51Slow and behold. And what Boris could and would do when he was in trouble, although we should point out he only lasted two and a half years. It's not much better than 18 months. But what he could and would do was say, I'm here to get Brexit done. What can Keir Starmer say? Well, MPs have been advised to tell journalists that the government is delivering on, quote, many areas of incremental change. What? What does that even mean? Britain is changing incrementally every day at pace. Wow. So we've had, I mean, I don't know what impact it has really for Kemi Babenock to say that the Prime Minister's time is up.

27:30No, none at all. She doesn't really have any say, but let's just listen to that clip. And then you're going to attend a little later this parliamentary Labour Party meeting, or at least you're going to hang around outside like a bad smell and find out what... You're not allowed in. No. Call me a bad smell. Well, sorry, no, I think you're not a bad smell. They will regard you. They will see you and go, oh, that's that filthy Tim Stanley from the Daily Tea. Get away from us. We're Labourites. MPs have this thing where they go into a committee room and they listen to the leader try and save their skin.

27:57Journalists and the public are not allowed in, so we have to stand outside. So you might ask, what's the point of it? Well, one, you can put your ear up against the door and you can judge from the volume of the cheering how enthusiastic MPs are about the leader. Do you actually put your ear to the door? Oh, yeah, people actually do that. Yeah. And the other thing you can do is you can watch MPs walk in. and it's like attending the premiere of a really crap movie. Yeah. You get to see these C and D list celebrities and they all have a poker face. They don't want to give away if they're unhappy or if they're happy.

28:25Somebody will be crying though, possibly tonight. But that changed towards the end of the Boris years when rebellious MPs like Marc Francois would actually give a little press conference of their own before going in. He loved it. I tell you what, Francois always loved a crowd outside a committee room, didn't he? He did. Loved it. He did. Shall we pop into Stanley Bet, which is where we put you in a pork pie hat? It's ridiculous because I can't imagine you've ever gambled in your life. But you need to say the option. So I'm going to say, as next Labour leader, leading the race we've got... Angelina!

29:01Her odds are nine to four. Do you even know what that means to me? I don't know what that means. Well, if you've put four quid on, she wins, you get nine pounds? Something like that. But did you see the video of her getting a haircut? I know, she's got her layers done. Lovely. I thought that was such a boss move. In the middle of all of this, don't issue a statement. Just get a haircut. Do a TikTok video of yourself getting a haircut. All right. At seven to two, so behind Rainer is... Westreating. Well, we need an impression. Oh, well... Can't really do one. OK, 15 to two. He loves a big stone and a bacon sandwich.

29:32It's... Ed Miliband. Oh, eight to one. I think this is an outside chance, isn't it? Shabana Mahmood. And 12 to one. That's ambitious. He can't even get into Parliament. Let into the Downing Street, Andy Burnham. Then we've got David Lammy. 40 to 1. Harriet Harman. 50 to 1. And we've got some bloke called Al Carnes. Do you know anything about Al Carnes? I have literally never heard of Al Carnes. Yeah, but this is going to make us look stupid because he could be the next Prime Minister. He could well be, but as people have pointed out, he's an ex-soldier and Labour has already hit the stage of thinking we can rescue the party by making a veteran the leader.

30:15Send in the army. Remember Dan Jarvis? Yes. The five minutes of Dan Jarvis. Strapping Dan Jarvis as he was described. Lee, out of all of those contenders for next Labour leader, which do you think before you go is most likely to succeed? I would say in terms of who's got the best political acumen from looking, I'd say Shibana seems pretty switched on. But you're saying that as a bit of a righty. Well, this is the thing, isn't it? I think Wes, you know, I think he can navigate some of the challenges well. I like Al, I have to say. I like Al Cairns. What do you know about Al Cairns? Oh, well, I think he's somebody who's got a very serious background.

31:02I mean, I'm not running this campaign here, I should say. No, not yet. Not yet, seemingly. Indeed, yeah. He's got a very serious background. He spent a lot of time in the MOD, a very tricky role in that, in between the army and the defence secretary. So he spent a lot of time in and around that sort of political thing. I think he's quite an interesting backstory. I think he's quietly capable. He was literally on manoeuvres, wasn't he? He sort of saw his tweet with a pint yesterday. Yes, I saw that. He's just having a quiet pint. All right, one to watch. He's on the one to watch list. There's always a dark horse.

31:37Wouldn't we have described Keir Starmer as a serious man, quietly serious, a few years ago? I don't think it's enough. I know, but the difference is nobody wants to go and have a pint with him. Well, I'm not sure he wants to have a pint. The photo of... It's credible. When Keir Starmer does, there's no one else around him. Is it credible? It's a photo of a man sitting by himself in a pub with a pint. It was so clearly staged. He doesn't seem to be with anyone. He's sitting at a very small table. What is his message here? I spend my Sundays drinking by myself in a pub. No, maybe he was just saying, look, I'm the only Labour MP left in the country that's still allowed in a pub.

32:13Lee Cain, thank you for your wisdom and expertise in taking us behind the black door. Very interesting. Tim, the Epstein files have resulted in Peter Mandelson's homes, plural, being raided by police last week. What of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, well, breaking news from Thames Valley Police, who have said they are assessing the information in line with our established procedures. We'll get into the detail of that next.

32:54Camilla, William is visiting Saudi Arabia and he and Kate have broken ranks by issuing an unprecedented statement about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. Yes, the errant uncle. A spokesman for the couple told journalists in the Saudi capital of Riyadh that the Prince and Princess of Wales have been deeply concerned by the continuing revelations. Their thoughts remain focused on the victims. Now, having been on a number of these tours, it could just be that they were rounded upon by journalists who said, have they got anything to say about Epstein? And suddenly a spokesman said, OK, well, this is what we're going to say.

33:31A little bit like, we covered this last week, Prince Edward is at an event in Dubai. What is it with royals going to the Middle East? But anyway, Prince Edward's at an event in Dubai. He's asked about it and then he does the whole think of the victims line. So this could just be reactive or the future king and queen could have decided we need to say something because it's William who is particularly worried about this ongoing saga tainting his own monarchy. OK, it's bad enough that it affected the final days and years of the late Queen's life. It's plagued the King's reign, even though he's been suffering from cancer.

34:11And I think William, especially with the move, get him out of Royal Lodge. That's like next door to them where they're now based. Get him off this estate. Get him up to Norfolk. We don't want to see him around here. There was a lot of consternation about Andrew Mountbaston Windsor sort of riding horses and waving to whatever will. He was photographed smiling and waving from a car. To well-wishers. Who are these people? Who is the well-wisher? Well, I assumed he was looking in the rearview mirror at that point. But I do think it's a little unfair when someone is captured in a millisecond smiling and that's presented as the image of them as if he doesn't care about this scandal at all and is having a whale of a time.

34:50Yeah, if there is like a well-wisher there with a union flag, what's he meant to do? Like start swearing or just looking miserable and saying, no, don't talk to me. And of course, we also have a free press where you can say whatever you like about the royalty. I was amused by one rival news agency that pointed out that there were significant differences between the kinds of monarchies you get in Britain and Saudi Arabia. It said that the British monarchy is a constitutional monarchy, whereas one could say that the Saudi monarchy under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a monarchy where they torture and kill their opponents.

35:23Yes. Also, I'm not sure Saudi Arabia is the right arena to start talking about the well-being of women and girls. No. But it is interesting, isn't it, that this constitutional monarchy is changing its media strategy, that under Elizabeth II, we were used to never complain, never explain. The monarchy just maintained a perfect silence about everything. And therefore, I guess people got used to not asking. Yes. I don't know if that's true. You must have just given up asking after a while if you knew she wasn't going to speak. But no, you got that explanation and therefore there wasn't much you could do with that.

35:56Right. Whereas Williams seems to be of the view, transitional monarchy, that the monarchy must be shown to have empathy for its subjects. Do you know when that set in, that disastrous tour of the Caribbean? I remember when he wore the hat. When they were criticised and they were, you know, on the back of a Land Rover trying to recreate an image from the 60s and 70s. Yes. The Duke of Edinburgh and the Lake Queen. And the hat with the big duck feathers and everything. It just looked far too colonial and imperial. Which I loved, but I bet some of the locals hated. Well, actually, no. I bet they loved it too.

36:28The locals loved it. They turned out. But remember, there were people behind a fence and then it looked as if they hadn't properly acknowledged slavery. So never explain, never complain. It's turned into, in Williams' parlance, let's leave less unsaid. Right, OK. But actually, the timing of the statement is quite prescient because within minutes, seemingly, Thames Valley police have said that they will be assessing new information that's come to light in the Epstein files as reported by the Mail on Sunday. And this is that while he was trade envoy, so that was a job representing the royal family overseas on behalf of government.

37:07The idea was get a royal in the room. He can open doors. he can demonstrate soft power and try and, I suppose, grease the wheels of any trade deals that we might want to do or anything further diplomatically that might be in Britain's interests. That while he was in that role, he allegedly did share confidential information with Jeffrey Epstein. It suggested that he shared sensitive documents on what had been discussed during a visit to Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam and China. I should stress within five minutes of receiving them. Shades of Peter Mandelson. And that he had shared a confidential brief on investment opportunities in Afghanistan's Helmand province.

37:52Now, this is in 2010. The significance of Helmand province in 2010 probably doesn't need much explanation. But we do need to remind ourselves, Tim, that in 2010, Epstein had been convicted for procuring a minor for prostitution. so he was a convicted paedophile and Andrew was sharing information with him a year later. We are well beyond whether or not that photo was real. Yes. Which was treated as though it was the sticking point, the thing you could nail Andrew on, that he was friends with him, etc. No, we're well beyond that. So much evidence is now piled up of the nature of their friendship that we don't even have to rely upon a photo that it seems Ghislaine Maxwell has now acknowledged is real.

38:35It's becoming clear from the files, right, that as far as the global elite was concerned, the conviction did not matter. No. Really should have. Time and again, very big names are not only willing to continue friendly correspondence with him, but some talk about rehabilitating his reputation. And it's clear that Epstein, before his second arrest, had obtained some degree of restitution. He clearly enjoyed as much influence as he had before. It's amazing, isn't it? I mean, this is the other thing that leaves the public dumbfounded, I think. And somebody summed it up well, didn't they, on Question Time last week?

39:13If I knew a paedophile, I'd probably do my best to distance myself from them. And then I would tell the parents of any children nearby, do not go near this person. And then if they went through trial and were convicted and imprisoned, I would probably double down on that position and think, goodness me, there's just absolutely no way I can entertain any contact at all. Yeah, you're quoting Ollie Dougmore there of the New Statesman. And I was actually rather taken aback by his statement. I would have nothing to do with a friend who was convicted. Well, there are people who dedicate their lives to working with people in prison.

39:45The issue isn't that. That's very different to Peter Mandelson saying to him, congratulations on Liberation Day when he leaves prison. I know. No, indeed. And what you probably wouldn't be doing, though, Tim, post-conviction, at the same time that you're sharing confidential information with a convicted paedophile, is inviting him to an intimate dinner at Buckingham Palace in 2010 with three young women named only as Sarah, Sue and Vera. One of the three was apparently a Russian model, another a Romanian. Now, I'm not sure if these women wanted to see the throne room or some of the other artefacts and some of the priceless works of art in the state drawing room.

40:33But it does look a little bit off, doesn't it? To have somebody marred in controversy and actually having served a jail term for crimes against minors to then invite young women, not underage women, I should stress this, but young women to Buckingham Palace. By the way, while Mummy is away, the late Queen is at Balmoral when all of this is going on. Now, this is quite key critical because so far the allegations against Andrew regarding his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein have been confined to the private sphere. Well, this was going on in his private life. He and Sarah Ferguson, Fergie, were emailing him and their interactions were based on loans and private correspondence and private parties and all the rest of it.

41:18First of all, you're inviting Epstein and girls post-conviction back to a royal palace that is part subsidised by the taxpayer. It's known as the People's Palace. It's the seat of monarchy in the UK. But second of all, if you're sharing confidential information that you've gleaned while you are operating in a public capacity, while you are a so-called working royal, he's a trade envoy, it's an official role, then you may, like Mandelson, face accusations that you may have behaved in a way that has besmirched the office that you occupy. And that is why the Thames Valley Police are looking at all this.

42:01But this is a problem for the king, because vicariously, who takes responsibility for Andrew allegedly abusing his power. His brother or the monarch of the time. Okay, we can't hold the late queen responsible. She's passed away now. But the victims are now saying to the king, how did all this happen on your watch or under the watch of whoever was monarch at the time? Yes. And it seems unfair this because I can't for a minute imagine that the king is somebody that wants to have Sarah, Sue and Vera entertained at Buckingham Palace along with Jeffrey Epstein. I wouldn't imagine that the king has got much in common with Jeffrey Epstein at all.

42:42And he's probably tearing what's left of his hair out about this scandal as he's tried to get rid of his errant brother up to Norfolk, never to be seen in public again. But you can also understand it from the victim's point of view. Sorry, who in this institution knew what was going on with regard to this relationship? Did anyone have any suspicions he may have been leaking information to Epstein? and where were the bodyguards or the lackeys or the courtiers when successions of girls were allegedly being brought into royal palaces for intimate dinners with a convicted paedophile? Well, and of course Harry and Meghan would say that they were made to feel unwelcome in the palace and they never broke a single law.

43:20Why is it that all this was allowed to go on and didn't get exposed at the time? And also institutions apologise for historic crimes often. The monarchy is required to talk about slavery a great deal. So why shouldn't it talk about this, which is far more relevant to the lives of most modern Britons? But do you sense a tension between Charles and William? Well, I think... In their method and personalities. I think William is a little bit like his mother. I think Charles tries to give the benefit of the doubt. I think Charles has moments of being quite difficult. Let's not make any mistake over that.

44:00but I think that William has the capacity to be much more ruthless and I think he is the one that forced the situation with the former Duke of York and said enough's enough. I think, I mean, you could read that as he's supported the king in his decision-making around his brother but I think William's the one in the background saying I've got to keep this monarchy alive into the rest of the 21st century and this is not looking great and we're already low on numbers and actually the Gen Zs don't have the attachment that previous generations had. With the late Queen and the war and George VI and the Queen Mother being on the balcony and going and visiting people in the Blitz to look the East End in the face, there isn't that kind of institutional, there isn't that link, there isn't that memory to the institution that previous generations had enjoyed.

44:48And therefore they've got to work even harder to keep the end up. And that's going to be very difficult with Uncle Andy in the background, you know, jazz handing to the crowds. Please stop this. And a lot of what the royals do is invisible. It's the rubber chicken dinner circuit and opening garden centres. It's the stuff that Princess Anne does without complaint. But it's not stuff that necessarily makes headlines. So people might get the impression it's just a lot of very rich people enjoying themselves. Won't want to be going around doing his big things on the environment or on men's mental health.

45:22Catherine won't be wanting to do big initiatives on early years learning. and cancer and all the rest of it, having to endure the situation where whenever they do something good, it's overshadowed by something bad. And so they suffered this in the Harry and Meghan years. You know, everything they were trying to do was suddenly undone by some latest Megxit revelation. The king had this a couple of weeks ago. He comes out with this great initiative by his foundation on the environment. Nobody cares about it. It's confined back to the middle pages because everybody's obsessing about Andrew's historic relationship with Epstein and others.

45:58So why would you, you know, what's the point? You'll be thinking, what's the point of all of our good work if they're undone by his bad work? Yeah. We should note that Andrew has consistently denied any wrongdoing and has not responded to the latest allegations. We'll be back with more tomorrow, 5pm.

46:24Thank you.