'Spineless, shameless and aimless': Reeves unveils horror Budget

0:02The Telegraph

0:10It was as bad as expected. In fact, it was worse. Having ruined the economy, has the Chancellor just destroyed her own career? And elevated that of Kemi Badenok, who arguably had the best day of her political career so far, traducing the Chancellor in the Commons. We're going to get reactions from Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride, Clive Lewis, the Labour MP that wants to stand aside for Andy Burnham, and from Reform, Danny Kruger. once a Tory, probably not regretting it. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Tim Stanley. And me, Camilla Tominy.

0:50Tim, what have we just witnessed? I'm not sure Omni Shambles covers it, does it? It doesn't feel like a budget. It felt like a personal tragedy. I feel as if I've just seen the end of someone's career. Wow. I mean, I think the best hour that she spent today was spent in a make-up chair. Because I did actually think she looked nice. I don't want to be sexist when I say that. You're allowed to say that as a woman. Can I say that? You can say that. She looked nice. She scrubbed up nicely. And then it all went really downhill very, very rapidly. Well, the two problems she faced on substance were, first of all, it's a horrible budget anyway.

1:30It's a tax-raising budget. And however she tries to spin it, taxes have gone up. And that is a break of a manifesto promise. We can analyse that. The other problem she has is that almost every single measure had been leaked, either by her or by someone else. All that very morning, the OBR's growth forecast came out ahead of the budget. And the result was that all the Labour backbenchers knew what the good stuff was. The Tories were primed to boo at the bad stuff. But also the Labour backbenchers were not delighted to hear that the child benefit cap was going to be lifted because we had already been told that was going to happen.

2:07They over pitch rolled. I mean, remember Hugh Dalton, the old Chancellor, that had to resign because one element of the budget was leaked. Yes, he bumped into a journalist, had a chat and as a result had to resign. Because he broke a budget purder, as it's called. Instead on this case, the roll pitching and one of many beautiful lines from Kemi, the pitch was first rolled and then ploughed up. Yes, by some of the tractors in Trafalgar Square right now, actually. But the pitch rolling was so great that the speaker actually, the deputy speaker, opened by commenting on it and pointed out, one can infer from it, there's almost no point in this budget.

2:43No. Because we've read about it all in the papers. But there was something uniquely horrifying for the Chancellor about something that had been so well briefed and leaked in advance, then suffering from the leak of all leaks, which is the Office of Budget Responsibility, somehow putting these documents online before she'd even stepped foot towards the dispatch box. So we had this... Did you feel it inside the Commons? Because I was watching on telly out here in College Green, and I'm like, we're at PMQs, which is a non-event because it was just the warm-up act, although Kemi didn't do badly, and we'll get on to Badenock's performance in just a minute.

3:20Yeah. We had, I thought, the Chancellor rapidly scrolling on her phone, going, oh my God, oh my God, oh my God. The OBR has leaked this stuff. It's gone to Guido Forks. The entire lobby has it. At some point, Torsten Bell was passing his phone to her and they were having an anguish chat. Oh no, we've got Steve Bray. Wherever we are with the podcast, we've got Steve Bray. It's like the rain. As night follows day. If you're outdoors in England, you're going to see some rain. Anyway, we'll have to just brave on through the helicopters and Steve Bray and we've got some God-botherers as well who you may align with more than me.

3:58Frankly, Tim, I think the king is coming. But the point is, we've got a bit of musical accompaniment. I looked at her and I thought, oh dear, you've lost this before you've even stood up. You know like a comedian enters a hostile crowd and they haven't even come out with their first gag and they're being heckled. She stood up and it was lost because she didn't have anything to say that we didn't know already. Yes, also not a very good comedian. I mean, we're not talking the quality of, like, Frankie Howard. It's like Lenny Henry came out. Yes. And the delivery is so laden, and there are so few lines, and they're used so often that there was an element of groaning when she delivered them.

4:38Yeah. Now, one thing, I don't know if we were prepared for it that did surprise me, was that while she has decided to raise taxes on online gambling, she has cut them for bingo. Why? I guess to encourage people to go out and gamble rather than stay indoors and gamble. If you're going to blow your life savings, do it with people around you. But the unfortunate effect was that having introduced that she likes bingo, when she started to say things that we've heard a thousand times before, like children being herded into porter cabins in school playgrounds, members of the press started to say, bingo.

5:13Do you know what? This crumbling classrooms argument. Hang on a minute. Let me just get this straight, Chancellor. you're having a go at the Tories for failing to invest in the school that got you into Oxford. Yes, it can't have been that bad a school. What are you talking about? And proof in my mind that we could very easily cut the education budget. Just stick everyone in a port-a-cabin because apparently you can still become Chancellor. Indeed. But one thing that got a widespread cry of bingo was, I am the first female Chancellor. I'm proud to be Britain's first female Chancellor of the Exchequer.

5:46I take the responsibilities that come with that seriously. The heart just sank when she said it. She thinks it's historic, but it's actually just going to be a historic footnote of incompetence and disaster. But history is something that you comment on once because it's interesting to note. It is not something that you keep bringing up time and time again. And it has gone from breaking the glass ceiling to using the glass ceiling as a shield to deflect criticism against her. Now, much of this budget, much of the build-up of this budget, has had an element of gender to it. Questions about whether or not journalists and the public are mansplaining it to her.

6:28Things like that. At the very beginning of the budget, about five minutes in, one bored Tory shouted, why don't you just skip to the ending? And it sounded like he said, why don't you just skip to the end, dear? So there's always this kind of gendered quality to what the Chancellor does. But the problem is, if you play that card too often, and if you're just bad at your job, it's going to finally look like you're playing it as a shield to deflect from the fact that you're not doing very well. Now, Kemi Badenog, I think, had the finest hour of her opposition so far. I agree, yes. She wanted to traduce the Chancellor's mansplaining excuses.

7:07Yes. And therefore the only way you can do that really, as we just remarked with my quite sexist makeup remark earlier, is you have to be a bird to make these comments. So some of the stuff, let's have a listen to it. Let's listen to Kemi Badenox. I mean, quite bitchy, frankly. This was like, you know, one of those scraps in the toilets at school where girls are like ripping chunks out of each other's hair. Yeah. It was the political equivalent of that, Tim. Yeah. I mean, you know. Call me a bitch, you cow. I just, I like a dust-up, but God, I was thinking this is really quite frightening. Touch of EastEnders.

7:42Pint glasses flying. Can I just say now, I would not take Badenock on. Would you? No. I've always felt that way. No. I've always been terrified of it. I mean, let's be honest, in a fight between Badenock and Reeves, Badenock wins hands down. We knew that, but my God, it was confirmed today. Let's listen to some of those very bruising girl-on-girl moments. May I congratulate the right honourable lady on delivering her second budget? I hope she enjoyed it because it really should be her last. At the last budget, she said she was proud to be the country's first ever female chancellor. After this budget, she will go down as the country's worst ever chancellor.

8:24All we've had is wallowing in self-pity and whining about misogyny and mansplaining. So, Madam Deputy Speaker, let me explain to the Chancellor woman to woman. People out there aren't complaining because she's female. They're complaining because she is utterly incompetent. What did the Chancellor think would happen when she went on breakfast telly to do an emergency public service announcement? I interrupt your Cheerios to bring you this frightening message about income tax. And then, unbelievably, she changed her mind three days later. No wonder people are in despair. She told Labour MPs this week, I'll show the media, I'll show the Tories, I will not let them beat me.

9:11Show us what? Making stuff up for the dispatch box, incompetence, chaos and the highest tax burden in history. She said to them, Madam Deputy Speaker, I'll be there on Wednesday, I'll be there next year and I'll be back the year after that. God help us. She is spineless, shameless and completely aimless. Last year we had the horrors of the Halloween budget. This year is the nightmare before Christmas. And as for her, she's the unwelcome Christmas guest. Ten minutes through the door and she's eaten all the quality street. One of the advantages of being in the press gallery is you get better angles than TV cameras do.

9:49And that point that Kemi made about is he mansplaining this to you, That's when the Prime Minister and the Chancellor were having an intense chat. And when they said that, Keir suddenly pulled away very dramatically and he went red. Normally he's a kind of a grey concrete colour, like a car park, but he suddenly flashed red, which was very funny to watch. Do you know what? I've got the impression that Starmer is a bit of a mansplainer. Yes. I think maybe like when the Lady Victoria is boiling an egg, he's like, you do know you need to do that for four minutes. Do you think he was saying at that point to Rachel Reid You've got to sit here now and listen to the leader of the opposition.

10:25Yes, exactly. The other thing was there was a moment when it looked as if the government's attention was wandering from Kemi, and that was because the guide dog of Steve Darling, Lib Dem MP, was starting to act up. This was a very long session. It's too long, especially given we all knew what was in it. The guide dog began by begging. It sat on its back and put its paws onto his lap. And then when that didn't work, it tried to sort of act up. So it got onto its back, stuck its legs in the air and did that scratchy thing. Oh, my God. With the carpet the way that dogs do. Oh, I love that. And the government benches started looking at it and Kemi looked a bit confused, etc., and the Speaker had to intervene.

11:00She pretended she was shouting someone else down, but I think it was to get people's attention back. And Kemi shot back with, even the dog. Even the dog is laughing at the Chancellor, Madam Deputy Speaker. Even a dog has had enough of this dog's breakfast. The smorgasbord of budget. While we talk about what was on offer, what was the phrase she used? It's not pick and mix. You've got to have the cola bottles and the fruit salad, she said yesterday to Labour MPs, who were pretty subdued, let's be honest. Very subdued, yeah. It wasn't the greatest day for their whole family. Until the lifting of the child benefit camp.

11:28Oh, hooray! That's when there was a genuine sense of joy. Yay! Let's take money from working people and give it to people on benefits. That's wonderful. I can announce today, fully costed and fully funded, the removal of the two-child limit in full from April. CHEERING

11:48CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

11:55We on this side of that, it's amazing what people get so angry about, and we've seen their true comments today. The thing they get angry about is lifting children out of covetous. But the problem is, is this has all contradicted everything she said a year before, and this is a point made very powerfully by Kemi on the question of tax. She said at the dispatch box a year before, because in the manifesto we said we will not raise personal taxes, I will not freeze income tax thresholds. So she, last year, made the connection between thresholds and the raising of tax. So she's U-turned on that. The previous Conservative government froze personal tax thresholds from 2021 to 2028.

12:43And today I will maintain all income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at their current level for a further three years from 2028. Which is also you turned on the child benefit cap because a year ago they were all for that in the same way that they were all for welfare reform until they had to you turn on it. And that's the key theme of Kemi's speech, that Labour is raising taxes to pay for welfare rises to mollify their backbenches. That smorgasbord of misery we just heard from her can be summed up in one sentence. Labour are hiking taxes to pay for welfare. This is a budget for benefits, Street Madam Deputy Speaker, paid for by working people.

13:28This budget increases benefits for 560 ,000 families by an average of£5 ,000. They are hiking taxes on workers, pensioners and savers to pay for handouts to keep their backbenchers quiet. On the threshold freezing, so that's for an extra three years, so we're going to be frozen until 2028, now it's going to be until 2031. The Telegraph has got this really handy calculator, you know, how much worse off am I going to be? I gamed it with a load of different salaries right up to 50 ,000 pounds you're going to be 818 pounds worse off this year wow when you go between 50 and 60 because that is the threshold at which you go into the higher rate of tax you're then in for about another nearly two grand between 60 and 70 it goes up to above two grand but this is the curious thing you're actually less worse off if you earn over£130 ,000 than if you earn under that amount.

14:26So this has hit middle earners. It's going to encourage us all to work harder so we can do that. So let's just quickly go through the headlines then. So across the two budgets, she's actually put taxes up by a total of£70 billion because it's around£30 billion in this budget after£40 billion in the last one. We've talked about the abolishing of the two-charbed benefit cap. Sickness and disability benefit spending is going to soar by, wait for it, £109 billion. As we discussed on a previous Daily Tea, if you just restored the working age benefit bill back to what it was pre-pandemic, you'd actually saved£47 billion.

15:02So it's not only building on what we've already built upon, but adding another£109. Of course, there's the council tax surcharge, which is going to hit people with homes worth£2 million. So that's£2 ,500 if you've got a home worth£2 million and 7 ,500 if you've got a home worth 5 million. More taxes on landlords, more taxes on EVs, more taxes on pensions, less incentive to save more into an ISA, less incentive to add more to your pension through salary sacrifice, because that's also going to be taxed. Higher taxes on dividends. Just basically, to be fair, I think Kemi's line more or less summed it up.

15:39But she could have chosen today to bring down welfare spending and get more people into work. Instead, she has chosen to put up tax after tax after tax. Taxes on workers, taxes on savers, taxes on pensioners, taxes on investors, taxes on homes, holidays, cars, I think even milkshakes. Taxes on anyone doing the right thing. She and this government have lost what little credibility they had left and no one will ever trust her again. And the Chancellor said two or three times, I'm asking everyone to contribute more. I wanted to say, well, can I, then I politely decline. Yeah, I don't want to contribute more.

16:20I'm contributing enough. We're not being asked, we're being compelled. Plus, we already are contributing. Yes. And what is it we're now paying for? Well, a couple of years ago, fine, we were paying for COVID in Ukraine. Yeah. But now that 22 billion black hole has grown on Labour's watch, we're now paying for Labour's choices. Rachel Reeves kept using this line, which she obviously thought sounded strong, strong of these are my choices, my budget, my joys. No doubt we will face opposition again, but I have yet to see a credible or a fairer alternative plan for working people. These are my choices, the right choices for a fairer, a stronger and more secure Britain.

17:04Order. Well, what if I don't like those choices? The fact that they are, I don't rhetorically understand this. just because they are your choices, I'm supposed to go, well, fair enough. Yes, these are your choices. And because you are right, because you're on the left, then we must all accept it because at the end of the day, I'm going to bandy around an arbitrary figure like I'm lifting 400 ,000 children out of child poverty. Well, you may be, but because you've put up the minimum wage now to£10.85, you're actually going to increase youth unemployment. How do you know that's going to happen? Because that's exactly what happened when you last put the minimum wage up.

17:40I said to my daughter this morning, oh, well, the minimum wage is going to go up. And she said, this is great, Mum. I'm going to earn more at the pub. And I said, no, I'm afraid you're probably going to be fired because the landlord will realise he can't afford to keep on five of you, so two of you have to go. And by the way, because you're young and inexperienced, you'll be the first to go. He'd rather pay somebody older and wiser the minimum wage than a 17-year-old. So this is the reality of socialism. A couple more points. The OBR forecasts do not take into account the Employment Rights Bill.

18:09Right. That's a significant thing. And second of all, growth we're meant to be celebrating. Yeah, this is very funny. It's going to be flatlining at 1.5%, which, by the way, is actually being leveled down from a previous estimate in March, which put it at 0.3 % higher. So she says growth is up. No, not really. Tax is up. Spending's up. She said this with great fanfare, that growth is up from 1 % too. Now, again, rhetorically, when you say that kind of thing and you're building us all up to go, wow, You expect the figure to be 3 % or 4%, but growth has risen to 1.5%. 1.5%, but don't worry, because it's the highest in the G7, so we all must celebrate that.

18:48We can see Mel Stride, the Shadow Chancellor. Can he stride into view? Oh, here he is. Mel Stride, come in. Please, come and join us. Come and join us. Hello, Mel. You look very friendly. Shall I come and say hello? Come into the middle of us. No, no, no. We're objective and critical. Right. Mel Stride, Shadow Chancellor, thank you for joining us. Let's start by being generous. Now, Tim Stanley thinks that today we've witnessed a personal tragedy. He thinks we've witnessed the end of the Chancellor's career. Can we be a little more generous? Just to begin with, there must have been something, Mel, you liked in that budget.

19:20Something. I'm lost for words, Camilla. That's unusual for me. Come on, Mel. I'm genuinely racking my brains as to what I really liked in the budget. I don't think there was anything, no. It was all blotted out by the huge tax increases, all the dreadful numbers in the forecast, you know, growth going down rather than up and inflation being higher for the next couple of years and borrowing an extra£11 billion on average every single year. You know, this is not good. This is another instalment of what we had last time, really, it seems to me. You've previously resisted with me, as I've tried so often, to call for her resignation, but she has to go, doesn't she?

20:02Well, as Kemi said at the dispatch box, yes, I think she does. Why are you saying that now? Because you think she's broken the manifesto? I think, yes, I think when she went for extending, for three years rather than two, the freeze on income tax thresholds, which will mean about 1.6 or 7 million people paying a higher rate of tax than they otherwise would have done, I think that was a step too far. You said you were freezing them until 2028, to be fair. Yeah, but that wasn't a manifesto. She's given rocket fuel to a Tory policy. No, but hold on. She said back at the time of her October budget last year, if you remember, she made a big theatrical point in the Chamber of saying that she would not be doing that because she wanted to honour basically the commitment that they have in their manifesto.

20:46And she's gone back on that. And I think that is a step too far. Look, we've got£26 billion of additional taxation. Incidentally, because inflation is higher in the forecast than it was back in the spring, there's a lot more fiscal drag going on. So one of the things that hasn't been noticed is my calculation at least, is that there's another£12 billion on top of the 26 in terms of additional tax take because inflation will be higher and more people are being dragged into paying tax. So this is colossal. It's of the kind of scale that we had last October. And remember, that was a one-off. You know, not coming back, the slate was wiped clean.

21:18You know, this one's on us, if you remember. Yes. Well, I remember it was all your fault. It's definitely your fault. Well, it's always been everything from us to Donald Trump to Brexit to, you know, I wonder about William the Conqueror and the harrowing of the North. No, but the harrowing of the North was really bad. The economic scarring from that must be being felt a thousand years later, surely. Yeah. Now, Mel, you responded to the spring statement, but Kemi, as is convention, responded to this one. Did she want to do that as well because that way she could speak woman to woman? Well, I think she did it because that is the convention, so it was right and proper that she did.

21:51but it did allow her the ability to raise that, which is this whole mansplaining thing. It's been a complete fog and smoke and mirrors exercise to detract from the fact that the Chancellor's made terrible choices. And it's not about gender, it's about economic incompetence, and that was basically her message, and she was right. OK. Do heads need to roll over the OBR leak? Well, we need a proper inquiry into this, an investigation, because this is the first budget, certainly since the OBR's been around, where that information has been out there. and we were sitting there on the front bench and suddenly our phones all pinged and somebody was tweeting the details of the OBR's Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

22:29I mean, that is unheard of. It's market-sensitive information apart from anything else and we need to know, and I don't know at this stage if this is the case, whether some people got access to that information before it was more widely circulated to the public, which would seem to me to bring into play all sorts of issues that are deeply problematic if that was the case. particularly when markets are affected by that data. Mel Strive, thank you very much for joining us on The Daily Tea. Thank you, Camilla. Always lovely to see you. Thank you.

23:03I mean, Mel's happy. He's been overshadowed a bit today. He has, yes. I mean, Kemi is the star of the Tories today, let's just be honest. She is, but then who cares? You've got to remember that question with the Tories always, who cares? A lot of the questions at Prime Minister's questions were about reform and particularly the influence of Russian money. It's striking how even though Kemi landed a lot of blows, Labour is still primarily worried about Nigel Farage's reaction. And even though Britain is bankrupt, Steve Bray is still worried about Brexit. Come on, Steve, get with the programme, it's 2025.

23:35I think if we rejoined, he would come out in favour of leaving it. Can I just, one word on Kemi, though. That she managed to get both Cheerios and Quality Street into Hansard is quite something. Coming up next, let's hear from Clive Lewis, who doesn't like the Prime Minister and is happy to stand aside to let Andy Burnham replace him, and Danny Kruger, your fellow Christian. What does reform make of all this? There are quite a few of us, but yes, Danny Kruger will be with us too.

24:13Welcome back. We're still on College Green, and this time we're joined by Labour MP for Norwich South, Clive Lewis. Now, Clive, I reckon what you've heard in the House of Commons there has dissuaded you from standing aside and allowing your mate Andy Burnham to come in and replace the Prime Minister because everything is going swimmingly. That was never going to happen. Never going to happen. But, you know, look, at the end of the day, I think there's an existential threat facing the country and hypothetically speaking, as the BBC reporter asked me, would you do that? And I answered hypothetically, of course you would.

24:47But he's not interested in my seat, never has been. And it's not up to me anyway. It's up to my constituents. It's up to my CLP and it's up to the NEC. But look, that budget, I think, I wish we'd got there a year or two ago. I wish... Well, got where? To higher taxes, higher spending and sclerotic growth? Let's talk about the things that I do welcome. And I welcome the lifting of the two-child policy the two-child benefit cap I think it's going to lift thousands of my constituents thousands of children out of poverty potentially it's going to mean they're going to be able to eat that heat their homes feed themselves give their children a decent standard of living I hope but it's it was overdue we should have done that a lot sooner would have been a lot less a lot less painful and you know colleagues were suspended for simply doing what the Chancellor has done today it's a labor thing to do and it's the right thing to do and I'm glad she's done it so that was a good thing i think the mansion tax is a good thing but again on wealth taxes i don't think they went far enough but here's the thing i said to you just now it was a tactical budget i wanted to see a strategic budget and i think one of the things that lots of people talk about is where is the vision uh for of kia starmer and what we had today was i think more doggy paddling in choppy waters i wanted to see a strong front crawl towards dry lands and that means talking about the other side of the equation from tax wherever you're getting your tax from whether it's from the increasing amount of wealth that makes up GDP or from income.

26:12The reality is that vast amounts of money are going out of our economy, particularly on the key assets that people use, housing, water, energy, and that's extractive. It's taking away money from people. The most radicalized document most people get every month through their letterbox is a water bill, an energy bill. £450 on the average household annual bill for energy is pure profit. on water, a 30 % increase from companies who are polluting our water, not investing, haven't invested, have sold off all the reservoirs. And, you know, people are getting angry about that. And I think what I want to see from this Labour government is about talking about that.

26:53That's a strategy, I would say, obviously, to the telegraph, it's a complete break with Thatcherism. And I don't think we're seeing that at the moment. Definitely isn't, you couldn't call it, you know, neoliberal Thatcherism, but it's not the decisive break that I think many of us wanted to see and the change that people voted for. Now, people will say, I didn't vote for that. A lot of people want to see something fundamentally different. That's what I think populist politics represents at the moment. And if you want some clear water between Nigel Farage, who I think in the last couple of weeks now has come out with an ostensibly Thatcherite economic set of policies with a kind of what you would call, I would say...

27:32Doesn't he want to nationalise water? He agrees with you on the benefits. He agrees with you on the child benefits gap. He wants to nationalise water. There's more in common between you and he than you and the Tories. Sorry, I was distracted by the news. No, I know. I'm sure we can't help that. Unfortunately, we live in a free country. I wish it were otherwise, but there's nothing we can do. Well, we do, but increasingly, that's one of the other issues in the other areas. I think whether it's on the right to trial by jury, the right to protest, that increasing is another side, I think, of this Labour government that many of us are concerned about.

28:06That isn't just about the economics of this, it's the culture of this government. And that's a problem for us because I think, you know, there's a rise of authoritarianism. Whatever people think of Trump, there is a deeply authoritarian strand to his politics. And there is to Nigel Farage's just as there is to Putin's. And I don't want to see that in British politics. I actually think democracy is a good idea. I just believe in social democracy, not free marketing. Why don't you join your party? Because your party is... I'm in the Labour Party. That's my party. I get what you're saying. You want a break from Thatcherism.

28:38OK, so that says to me, with my Telegraph hat on, that you want to go back to the 1970s. No, no, no, no, no, no. It doesn't mean that. If you don't think Labour is left-wing enough, go to a more left-wing party. Join the Greens, join your party. No, but this is one of the key things about the Labour Party. is the culture of debate and tolerance that I think has been shut down in the last six years, the hyper-factionism that has taken over, where just having a different opinion can get you thrown out of the party. That's authoritarianism, you know? And so I just did the 20th memorial speech of Robin Cook.

29:08He's a hero of mine. I don't think Robin Cook would have gone to your party. I shouldn't have to go to your party any more than Robin Cook should. And yet Robin Cook's politics, the politics of many of the people of that generation, are my politics. And yet now we are marginalised inside our own party. But Clive, I have to say a lot of more conservative people watching this feel the left are actually calling the shots in the Labour Party, not the right. You've got the child benefit cut lifted. You've got your mansion tax. You're winning your argument. But doesn't that... No. So I think people watching this, many people who consider themselves, let's say, right wing, I think they want to see a society where people aren't living on the margins, where people aren't in poverty.

29:52I have children in my constituency, they're eating sand. That is now less likely than it should be. The issue with welfare for me, and I wonder whether many of your viewers, listeners, readers would agree with me, is actually structural. So most people don't decide to not feed their children. Most people don't decide to leave their homes cold. though the structural issues are the fact that you know under Margaret Thatcher 170 billion pounds of public housing has now ended up in the private rented sector where there are no limits no caps on what people can charge so you know water energy these are the things that are driving the cost of living crisis these are the things which are causing people to fall into mental health these are the things which are causing many of the issues which force people onto benefits I want to live in a society where people go out earn a living and can actually pay to have a decent home to pay their bills.

30:42Maybe have a holiday. But that's also a right-wing argument, isn't it? That's a Tory argument. Kemi Badenok addressed the House today in response to the budget and said that there was something wrong with the system that puts the benefits bill up by£109 billion on the back of higher taxes on working people. Now, I appreciate, Clive, that some people on benefits are also working, but if you restored the working-age benefits bill back to what it was just simply pre-pandemic, you'd actually be saving£47 billion. Now this Labour government wants to spend another£100 billion on benefits and taxes are going up, and not just for the rich.

31:22So one of the questions I have for Kate Badnock, it was that 14 years of Conservative policies, austerity gutted this country's investment capabilities, it invested our capex in the infrastructure of this country. It brutally cut people's take-home pay. people's living standards. And so therefore to argue and to crack on about the welfare bill, being in a political party that led us to where we are now, I find it frankly ludicrous. So actually, if we want to get out of this hole, we've had 14 years of austerity. Before that, we had another 30 years of an economic model which has gutted the public realm, eviscerated public housing, could reduce the ability of people to demand better wages through the decimation of trade unions.

32:09We are one of the most, in terms of public wealth, we've lost more than any other G20 country before us. So, I mean, I guess my point is, I don't think that many of your viewers and listeners are necessarily against having a social security net that is decent, that is there for people when they fall on hard times, having public services like the NHS, having actual homes which aren't just an asset but are there to put a roof over people's heads, warm and affordable. These should be things that one of the richest countries in the world can do, and yet we can't. And we turn around and go on about the welfare bill.

32:47The welfare bill isn't there because people are simply feckless. It's there because we have an economic system which is structurally aligned to make them put them in that position. But also there's been a business being clobbered element to all this which has pushed wages down. We've seen from the last budget, she put the minimum wage up and youth unemployment has gone up with it. Yeah. Because people can't afford to employ younger people on£10.85 an hour if they're running hard-pressed pubs that are still barely recovering from the pandemic, Clive. I guess the question I always ask myself is, could I live on the minimum wage?

33:26And the answer is, I think most people would struggle. Would you rather be on the minimum wage or out of work? I'd rather be on a wage that paid decently for the work. Don't forget, those people are making profits for people. They're making those businesses run effectively. They're helping them be the businesses that they are. They are, if you think about it... Businesses are closing down in record numbers. But it's the human capital that makes businesses work. I mean, obviously, investment in technologies and so on is part of that. It's people who can pay wages. But then what happens when you don't pay people?

33:55You said to me just now... If you can't afford five staff, you make two redundant and you pay three more. Would you rather five staff earn£10 an hour or three staff earn£10.85 an hour? Then you're saying to me the welfare bill's going up. What happens when you don't pay people enough to be able to live on or when you make people unemployed? The welfare bill goes up. Well, if you're earning more on benefits than you are on work, there's no incentive to be in work, Clive. We have one of the most miserly benefit systems in the Western world. Well, it's not because Fraser Nelson did a really interesting documentary which revealed that a single mother was on£36 ,000 a year and could not get an equivalent wage that high in her area.

34:33I think it was near Salford. So she openly admitted, and who couldn't sympathise with her? She was earning more on benefits, therefore there was no point to her working. We both know for the average two-child family,£35 ,000 income is the bare minimum that you can actually bring children and your family up. So I guess we can go round in circles, but I guess the actual issue is, you know, you look at Denmark, OK? I know we've been looking at Denmark quite a lot recently, But if you look at Denmark, they have a, and Switzerland, they have a high tax, high public service economy. That's the kind of country, kind of economy I would rather that we lived in, where there were high taxes, but people got well-class public services.

35:13People felt secure. And you know what? One of the things I also did was I did a speak with, I did a talk, speak. I did a talk with Mary Caldor at LSE, and she produced a fascinating paper on defence, OK, and the threat of Russia. One of the things that came out of that is that the disinformation, the attacks on our democracy, it's not just military, it's not just in terms of social platforms and what they're doing. There's also an understanding from Russia that many European countries, the UK in particular, our democracies have been hollowed out. We're insecure. People don't feel content, they don't feel part of this country, they don't feel they have a stake in it.

35:50That isn't good for national security. And I tell you what, if we don't start to give people a sense of a stake in this country, something like we had after the second world war where people felt that they had a national health care system a roof over their head and a welfare state that worked for them and we also had businesses that operated and function we can criticize what kind of economy we had but we had a country where people felt secure if we don't have that then i find that divided countries tend to fall in on themselves russia knows this and i think we've got to face that okay final question i feel like we're having this conversation in a nightclub one thing telegraph readers will agree with you on is trial by jury do you promise that you and Labour backbenchers will fight the government on this?

36:28I personally feel that there is a crisis of democracy at the moment and I feel the rise of authoritarianism we need to build firewalls around it and trial by jury is an important and critical part of that to be tried by your peers I fear that in the future if we make this change there will be governments that come along that that don't overturn it that actually deepen it you can politicize judiciaries I think having an independent judiciary and the ability to be tried by peers is a fundamental component of our democracy and i will be opposing uh the reductions of that myself yes without doubt hang on final final question to keep up the rock team the theme tim yeah rachel reeves should she stay or should she go that's a really good tune i like that yeah should we sing that today was a bit of an sos so we had abara i know i love that well done i know that came late though because clive Should she stay or go?

37:24So I think one of the things, look, my issue is with the direction of travel overall, not just on the economy. One word answer, Clive. No, no, because my one word answers tend to resonate, I find, quite a lot. I don't know if you do one word answer. Whisper it. I think ultimately her fate. Yes, she should. My lips were still moving and I was still speaking. I think ultimately Rachel's fate is tied to Keir's. Well, what does that mean? It means what I said. It means that they are... They're a double act. Right. A double act that rise or fall together. That's one take. Five Lewis. Thank you very much indeed.

38:01God, we've covered...

38:05Danny Kruger is with us, the Reform MP for Devizes. Is it still that constituency? No, it's not. Keep up. It's not East Wiltshire. Well, it's hard to keep up with the boundaries. I like Devizes. You're so divisive, having left the Tories for reform. I've been divided off from them. Yes, that's right. Tim's hat, he's worn it especially for you, actually. There's a kind of Russian theme going on here. Yes, very good, Tim. But I'm sure you paid for that yourself. Privyat to Varsha. No, I did, yes. It's called Boris. OK, very good. He spends most of the year sitting in a drawer, but he's finally come out of hibernation.

38:37He's now out of... It's in celebration of Nathan Gill. Yes. I get it, I get it. No more comment from you on that. Danny, you must be very happy that the government is lifting the two-child benefit cap. No, they should only be lifting it for a small number of people who are paying their own way, who are working. We don't think it's right to have an unlimited entitlement to universal credit child benefit or the child element of universal credit for any number of children if your sole income is the benefit system. We think that's wrong. But we think it's right that people who are working should be supported through the tax system and the benefit system to grow their family because fundamentally this country needs more children.

39:17OK, OK. And overall, the budget, tax is up, welfare up. Tax is up again, the second budget in a row, after promising to be a low-tax government. They've whacked on a huge new lot of tax, more borrowing. I mean, the economy is in a chronic state, and they're doing it in order to appease their own backbenchers. So we're seeing another£5 billion on welfare, the welfare bill, this year, up to£10 billion by the end of the Parliament. I thought they were trying to cut welfare spending. They couldn't do that because Labour backbenchers wouldn't let them. So they're taxing ordinary people. I mean, they might not be putting up income tax rates, but they're freezing the threshold, which means that a million people are going to be dragged out of the basic rate into the higher rate band.

39:57That's a million people paying higher rate tax now because of this budget. They're taxing people with savings, with property. All the productive parts of the economy are being taxed in order to appease labour-backed benches. This is not the way to grow the economy. It's not the way to behave responsibly towards our taxpayers or to save the long-term economy in this country, which is so badly unbalanced. I find it curious that they're obsessed with you. So, Prime Minister's questions, most of the questions were about, not you personally, but the Reform Party. But about the Reform Party. I don't see what this budget does to win over the people who are coming to you.

40:31That's a fair point, indeed. I mean, the people who are coming to us, I mean, they're coming from all places and all classes and so on. But, you know, they are mostly people who want an economy that supports hard work and isn't a high welfare, low wage economy. And that's what we've got. So, I mean, they are totally trapped. Poor Rachel Reeves can't move because the backbenchers have her in a sort of neck brace. She's completely paralysed by her own party. All they can do is tax more. And they've managed to find£10 billion more or so for their fiscal headroom, which keeps the vultures of the bond markets at bay for another little period.

41:07And, of course, we should be grateful for that. Nevertheless, she's also whacking up spending on welfare, which is the fundamental problem with our fiscal situation in our economy, is that we are paying people not to work. And we are clobbering employers, particularly, and we are clobbering people who've saved money for themselves. So the bits of the economy we should be supporting, we're not. And yes, I'm confident this is not going to go down well with people who are thinking of voting reform. But there are two issues where they think they can get you on. One is some MPs are starting to demand an inquiry into Russian influence in British politics.

41:41Does that concern reform? Well, I mean... Would you welcome it? I mean, in a sense, I mean, I'm afraid to say corruption happens across our politics. And we've had Labour MPs taking money from the Chinese regime. You know, we had cash for questions in the Tory party. I mean, I'm afraid there is always a danger of corruption and it's totally shameful and disgraceful what happened in Wales some years ago now with this MP, MEP, from reform. So, you know, it's a shameful thing that... I don't think we need a national inquiry into it, but, I mean, by all means, bring it on if it's needed. Well, maybe reform should investigate itself.

42:15Well, how does it do that? I mean, obviously, we have a... You do that thing of, we've appointed an independent investigator to investigate ourselves, and then you come up with a report which says lessons will be learned. Do you think people are going to buy that? Or think it's a good use of anybody's time? I think there's the criticism that the party appears to have resisted any notion of any investigation by anyone. Well, I mean, the law has investigated this case. And they found this one individual, totally disgraceful, who took bribes from Russia some years ago. I mean, that is bad enough.

42:49But, Danny, they're jumping on this because they're trying to imply that it's not just one rotten apple. It's because your party is susceptible to this because either you're crazy or you're anti-patriotic or you're somehow aligned to Putin in some way. I mean, again, I mean, I'd be interested to see to what extent the public buy this for a moment. I mean, it feels pretty desperate to me. The fact is, and all the evidence is, that we have been consistently supportive of Ukraine in this war. Obviously, we are. It's so clear who the bad guy is in this war. And, I mean, yesterday, Richard Tice was talking in that debate on the Ukraine peace deal about his own personal support for Ukraine, visiting it, taking aid there, donating.

43:28we've been consistently on the record including Nigel about the fact that Putin is the aggressor it's absolutely wrong what he's done and we should be absolutely supportive of Ukraine and their in their struggle so it's just it's just incredible this is not believable to suggest that we are in some senses pro Putin I mean it's pretty outrageous to be suggesting but it shows how desperate the other parties are they've got to come up with something The second allegation is that Nigel Farage was a school yard racist. Does this hurt him? I don't mean politically. I actually look at him responding to some of these charges and I feel he looks personally affronted.

44:06Yes, I think he is. He's actually upset. Well, I think he's pretty displeased that the newspapers are digging up pupils who were at school with him 50 years ago to throw allegations at him that are impossible to prove or disprove. But very unpleasant. Extremely unpleasant. Extremely unpleasant. And, you know, I mean, it is 50 years ago in the school, in the playground. He can't remember what was said. He's absolutely confident and has said it, and I believe it, that he would never have been, you know, in a deliberately, you know, in this awfully harmful and horrific, abusive way that behaved people.

44:41You know, what banter might have passed 50 years ago in the 1970s in the playground, I don't know, nor does he, and nor does anybody. And so I just think, again, it's another very desperate effort to change the subject from what we're talking about and what the country is talking about, which is the chronic state of our economy and public services and the scandal of mass migration. That's the reason why reform is doing well. And these allegations, I think the public will just think, what's that got to do with anything? Having just joined the party, can you put your hand on your heart and say, I hear no banter in reform?

45:10It's a banter-free zone. Well, no, no, it's not banter-free at all. Right. But it's certainly not a racist party. I mean, I'm genuinely, this is a really important point. We can't win and we shouldn't deserve to win if we're a racist party. And I am absolutely determined to ensure that our appeal is to everybody. And the fact is I think that people from ethnic minorities, recent migrants, as they are, should look to us as the party that represents the kind of country that they want to be. And the change that's needed in our politics applies to them just as much as it does to anybody else. So we have to be a party for everybody.

45:43And I am absolutely clear and convinced, and you can see it from our membership, that we are that party. And this is, I'm afraid to say, this is a Westminster story, and that's a very legitimate thing for everybody to talk about, but it's not what is concerning the public. They look at these kind of stories about Russia or this stuff that happened in the 1970s or didn't happen, and they just think, what are you talking about? Can you please have a politics that reflects my concerns and the priorities for the country? Danny Kruger, thank you very much. Do you want to borrow Tim's hat? Go on, put it on.

46:13And maybe the photo of it, maybe the wrong look for the week. Even I will not do that. Thank you. Thank you very much.

46:23I have lost all sensation in my toes. And I'm thinking, when we get back to the office, can I put my toes in your hat? Is that really weird? It might bite them on. I'm not entirely convinced that it's dead. Yeah, it could be still alive. It's alive! I felt okay earlier, but now my fingers are going. My fingers are going. I'm not sure I've got any fingers. I'm worried, like the invisible man, I'll take these gloves off and there's nothing inside. I can put your gloves on my toes and then that would be better. Well, shall we see how this all... By the way, we've done our own analysis today. We're going to do more tomorrow because we're going to be speaking to Treasury insider Cameron Brown, who's going to tell us what really goes on inside the red box.

47:01And also, as we know with previous budgets, Tim, this is going to run and run because it doesn't unravel immediately. It starts unraveling when the statos start pouring over the numbers. So more to come tomorrow, 5pm. Thank you.