Starmer set for ‘catastrophic week’ as Labour vote collapses

0:04Camilla: The Telegraph.

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0:21Camilla: Hi, I'm Shin Yee Pai. Five years ago, I sat down in front of a microphone with a simple goal to share stories from the Asian American experience. And to do that by talking about everyday objects. Now 10 ,000 Things is headed into its fifth and final season. And we've got a new set of stories about coming fully into oneself. Weird and wild and inspired. Tune in to the final season of 10 ,000 Things from ACAST Creative Studios. A podcast about modern day artifacts of Asian American life and the stories they reveal. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:24the verdict on Keir Starmer is already in and it's devastating. People hate him.

1:30Camilla: Labour and the Tories face Wipeout on Thursday and those voting for reform and the Greens say they will never, ever go back to their old parties. Welcome to The Daily Tea with me, Tim Stanley. And me, Camilla Tominy.

1:55Camilla: Tim, we're back on terra firma. We're no longer on the road. Are you all right? Have you managed to find your whatever it's called, your non-roadshow legs? Yeah, that's fine. I'm very happy to be back at home. How was your bank holiday? I decided to walk 17 kilometres, also known as 10 and a half miles, across the Chilton countryside yesterday in a six kilogram weighted vest. Wow. That's how I spend my free time. Okay. Yeah. You know how I spent mine? No, how? I went to Cambridge to interviewed Dr James Orr. Yes. It was written up in the paper and they put the photo on the front. They did loads of photos of James and then just for one, just to be nice, they did a photo of me with my dog Bertie and James and that's the photo they used.

2:34It's what the Telegraph audience would want. If I had known I'd have shaved and he would have had a brush.

2:38Camilla: Would he? Because we both really looked bad. You don't want to get that the wrong way around. Shave the dog and brush yourself. I quite like you looking a little rugged. Really? Yeah. It's like now we've entered this new era of your broadcasting career. Yes. It's like Tim Stanley with an afternoon shadow. That's a hell of a... Also, judging by some of the fangirling you got last week, maybe the public also like you semi-bearded. I don't know. I don't know. They don't want me semi-bearded. I know that much. But I had to kill some time and I walked my dog into Cambridge and I visited my old college, Trinity.

3:11And as you know, to go into these colleges, you have to walk through what they call the Porter's Lodge, which is security.

3:16Camilla: I don't hang out in Cambridge colleges as much as you do. Right. No, I haven't been back for years because I hated the place. Yes, that's right. But I was feeling quite nostalgic because it was warm and bright and it's very beautiful. And we walked into the Porter's Lodge, me and my dog, and I said, can I walk around the college? I'm a graduate here. Actually, it's six years here, like a prison stretch. And can I walk around and have a look? And he said, no, you can't. Not with that dog. And I said, what's wrong with the dog? And he said, Elizabeth I banned them. And quick as a whip, I said, Protestant cow and walked out.

3:45Camilla: You're such a Catholic. But I remembered why I hated the place. Why did you hate the place? Petty fogging rules, petty fogging rules. And the porters are like the Stasi. Yes. With both the politics and the porters, it's like living in East Germany. I don't recommend it. And you once told me that it just wasn't that fun at times. No. It was all work and no play and you didn't enjoy it. No, it's all natural scientists and mathematicians. You should have just been a bit more stupid and gone to Leeds University like me. You'd had a whale of a time and you'd have been a very big fish in a very small pond.

4:11And you probably make a lot more money than me now.

4:13Camilla: Well, anyway, on that bombshell, we're going to talk about some polling. Let's not discuss the gender pay divide in this room. It's very much the wrong way around. Lee Cain and Scarlett Maguire join us. Scarlett Maguire from Merlin Strategy, Lee Cain from Charles B, because you've come up with some super duper polling and indeed focus group intel ahead of the local elections on Thursday. And we're going to be writing this up. Tony Diver is scribing as we speak, and we'll try and put his story as the link in the show notes. But basically, the line we wanted to explore with you, I think, is quite a stark one about the previous electorates' blue and red sympathies having been completely dashed on the altar of disappointment.

4:58Camilla: And this idea that the people that you spoke to, and you spoke to more than 4 ,000 at the beginning of last month, basically say that they're never going to vote Tory and Labour again, no matter what happens. Lee? Yeah, I think we, of all the findings, it was the one that surprised us the most. We saw that, you know, almost one in seven people who have left the Tories and Labour to go to insurgent parties, if you will, of reform. And the Greens said, only one in seven said they would think about returning. The others no longer see it as an option. And I think if you look inside both parties and particularly the conservatives, there's this view that people will go and they'll see reform and they'll sample it.

5:39And same with the Greens, that these parties will fail and they'll all come back home to the traditional parties. But these voters were telling us that's not what they intend to do. They feel that they've given both parties their trust in their vote time and time again. They've been let down by the fact that they haven't given them the change that they want. So they are looking elsewhere. And I think we've seen now a large proportion of the electorate permanently abandoning the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, which is obviously going to be a huge change for our politics. But are those people permanently signing up to reform or green?

6:14No. And I think that's the thing that's quite interesting with it. But while there are some who say that they will stick with Greens and reform, others have said, if they don't deliver the sort of change that I hope for, I may stop voting. Or importantly, I'll keep looking for a new party. And I think that element's quite interesting because, you know, things like Restore, for example, people will start again to flirt and move over that way. And I think people are very open minded that they will keep searching for change. They will keep looking for parties that can deliver for them. It's not that these parties are particularly popular in this search.

6:48They just think all parties are going to let them down and they're very open-minded to looking for other opportunities. I can be very careful when one talks about Restore because you always get emails. It's like discussing Hamas or Meghan. Oh, Meghan, yeah. But do people actually know who that is? Are people familiar with that party, Scarlett? Most people are not overly familiar with the party, but there's definitely a very small section but quite a lively section of the electorate that is. and they are not I think what people think they are actually so there's an image of them online that anyone voting for restore must be some sort of online right anonymous headbanger and I think they probably do you know there are there are some of those around but actually a lot of them are just again people who potentially maybe voted reform in 2024 potentially voted actually for a whole range of other parties you get people who've seen in focus groups who voted restore who voted Labour who voted Conservatives it's not just the drawing from the reform pool although I think it's reform that would suffer the most if they continue to do well.

7:42And again, they're just looking for an answer. They think that reform won't deliver on the promises that it says it will. They do care about immigration. And they are looking desperately for someone that they think is going to be sort of authentically deliver on what they say they will. And at the moment, I mean, I don't think they particularly think restore will, but they've turned off all the other options. And I think that was the most striking finding that you sort of started off with, was that yes, only, 13-14 % of people who are voting Reform and Greens say they'd return to Labour and Conservatives if Reform and Greens let them down.

8:12A third said they'd look for something new. And that is a huge, I think that's going to be a huge driver of potentially further fracturing and change in our electorate. I'm particularly interested in seeing how many people go for independent candidates, for example, because I think we'll also see a rise in that. And what percentage of people would give up on politics if Reform or the Greens disappointed them? We found that quite a large proportion. So you had about a third of people just under three in ten say they'd stick with reform and greens even if they disappointed them you had only 14 % say they'd go back to Labour and Conservatives about one in three say they would go elsewhere and then the rest of the public say they would stay at home or not vote you know not vote stay at home or say don't know which at the moment was basically a proxy for that anyway right wow so we always used to have an image in this country of your politics was in some way anchored in your class or perhaps region if you want to push it out to nationalism so broadly speaking, working class, your lean Labour, middle class, Tory.

9:06Instead, it seems we've become what? Consumers of politics? We're sort of de-anchored from that and we're now just all floating? I think there is an establishment, anti-establishment axis that you can definitely draw and you see this in terms of some of the similarities between reform and Green voters. They are united in their hatred of politicians, of political parties, of a lot of institutions and in fact mainstream media as well. And they're a lot more distrustful of them than Labour and the Conservatives. But there's also another class element as well, which Labour's suffering from at the moment.

9:34It's not the one that people often think about, but you can see time and time again in polling that the Green Party, but Reform Party as well, but the Green Party in particular, are sort of their base is increasingly made up of voters who feel like they're suffering the most from the cost of living. And they do tend to be from more precarious demographics. Whereas Labour is increasingly the party of the more comfortably off. You've seen that with the Conservatives as well, but people won't be surprised to hear that. That's always been the sort of stereotypical image of the Conservative Party, or at least for a long time.

10:01But I think there are definitely class fault lines at play. It's just that they're also mixing in with some of these other dynamics. That's crucially, that idea of whether you think that the establishment is working for you or whether you don't. And increasingly, the public think like it's not. Let's just have a listen to some of the things people were saying in your focus groups.

10:19Camilla: Labour Prime Minister, weak. I just put weak. I put down weak as well. Labour leader, weak. Okay, I would say he's weak and ineffectual. Weak. I had incompetent. Disappointing. Yeah, for a start, I think he's a total wet rape. I wrote down spineless. I put that on puppet, no backbone. In three words. I didn't even think of three words. I just thought of one. He's a liar. I think we've got a government that do not know how to govern. Every single thing that they promised was a lie. Lee, you used to work for Boris Johnson, so you're very familiar with personality politicians. and I think it's interesting these people are like saying never going to vote Tory or Labour again but what about the individuals leading this these parties you seem to be painting a picture both of you of this completely apathetic electorate who have had it up to here with politicians and are particularly impressed with any of them of the politicians currently leading the main parties Do any of them hold appeal?

11:21So I think, firstly, the bar is quite low. When you look at all politicians, people are very sceptical about any of them. I think when we look, you know, Nigel Farage is probably the most divisive. He has certainly, you know, his people in his positive camp, but also there's a lot of sort of negatives. Kemi, I mean, Kiyah, just such, Kiyah, is the one person who unites the country in the fact that everybody dislikes him. I think weak was the term that came up more than anything else. People said weak, every group, all the polls, weak, weak, weak. But it was, you know, and even the credit that he does get for things like, you know, his position for war in Iran, a lot of voters think he made the right call on that and not sort of rowing him behind the Americans, didn't change people's overall perception that he is a weak prime minister.

12:09and across the vote divide, I've personally never seen this sort of mood and sentiment against a politician. Normally there is some group, you know, Boris's case in point, a lot of people were viscerally anti-Boris, but he had many people that were incredibly supportive of him and we really identified with. Keir has none of that. The interesting element around then is when we come to Kemi Badenock and the so-called Kemi Bounce that we've sort of heard a lot and we see a lot spoken about in sort of Westminster within the Tory party. And it is indeed true that I think Kemi's personal ratings are improving.

12:47Broadly, I think the language that we saw within the focus groups, people were quite positive. She was most likely to be seen as a leader. She was seen as intelligent. But interestingly, this is having no impact whatsoever on people's perceptions of the Tory party. People see the Tory party in an environment of change. People see the Tory party as an organisation that's for the establishment, that's made no progress since the last election. And I think most troublingly is people don't, they're not angry about the Tory party anymore. The last election, people were angry. Now they're just, they don't even think about the Conservative party.

13:23They see reform as the party most likely to stop Labour. That's where they see their vote should go. If you want an opposition to stop Labour, it's reform. So while Kemi personally is doing okay in terms of her own appeal, she's having absolutely no impact at all on the party and the party's chances, and that is a really difficult position for them to be in. Scarlett, who do you think people think the establishment are or is? Good question. Telegraph. Is it us? I think the country's suffered enough, hasn't it? But then we have a lot of reform people who listen to this podcast, and I don't think we are the established.

14:02No, no, I was being slightly flippant. I think that people have an image and it's amazing. They don't say the uniparty. We didn't hear the word uniparty in any of the groups. But when these voters, and there'll be a mix of former Labour and Conservative voters, a lot of them have voted for both those parties. Some of them might have been lifelong voters of one or the other. But they will suddenly start talking about these parties now in the same breath and just say we've been let down by not just the last two years, but by the last, you know, at least decade. And they have an idea, this sort of person in Westminster, in SW1, a frontline politician, or indeed someone maybe potentially more behind the scenes, who is in a suit and a lanyard and just does not have their interests at heart and hasn't had their interests at heart and has taken them for a bit of a ride.

14:42And it's quite hard to sort of pin down specifically what that is, but they know it when they see it, or they think they do. And that's, again, I think that's part of the huge problem for Keir Starmer is that Lee's absolutely right. Weak was the word that was used the most. On the more negative end of the spectrum from that. It was things like liar as well and U-turns this idea. But basically, I think they look at Keir Starmer and they just think he embodies that sense of, they don't, again, they can't quite describe it to you, but that sense of the establishment they don't think is working for them.

15:11So Keir Starmer constantly saying he's working class has never cut through. I don't think it has. And I think, you know, Boris is actually a great example of this. You know, it didn't matter that Boris went to Eton and was very posh. He could still get on with voters. It actually doesn't really matter. Again, I think actually reform might have slightly different issues when it comes to class, which is probably a discussion for another time. But I don't think voters are actually that bothered about where you came from necessarily. I think it's more your ability to be able to seem as if you would like to spend time with them.

15:42Right. You understand where they're coming from and that you're not looking down your nose at them. And that was something that Boris was able to do, you know, no matter what his background was. It's actually something interesting that Jeremy Corbyn had quite a genteel background as well, but he was very able to overcome that and talk to people. Some people have it, some people don't. I think the voters firmly think Kirsten. It doesn't matter how many times he tells them his dad was a toolmaker or whatever. I asked this. Was he? Oh, I hadn't realised. I think just on that, I think it's because, you know, we are in the age of authenticity in our political class.

16:11And, you know, whether people like you or they don't, there's a feeling of, is this person authentic? Nigel Farage, people feel, is an authentic politician. Boris, even though much of how he presented himself in politics, it was somewhat performative, it was still authentically Boris. I remember watching, there was a period during, I think it was the European Championships, Keir, a lifelong football fan, was in the pub doing a photo shoot with friends and he looked like he'd never been in a pub or watched the football in his life, which I find really surprising because this should be his authentic place.

16:48But he managed to do this incredible thing Of looking inauthentic At something he should be authentic at Where Boris was turned up at the match With an England top over his suit Looking preposterous But it's authentically Boris And people just know We know you're not really a football person You're here cheering on the country Fantastic, not bothered And I think there's a huge element of that Do I feel you're authentic? And Keir really doesn't pass the test on that He doesn't even wear a tie He's got a sort of centrist dad look but it doesn't cut through somehow. I ask this because just in the same way that class and politics have become de-anchored, I'm interested to see that our understanding of what the establishment is has changed because we just got rid of the Rotary Peers, the kings in America.

17:28It's no longer lords, kings, bishops, etc. It is now, as you say, the lanyard class. And I'm intrigued you suggested that perhaps reform and the Greens actually have similar complaints about Britain. They're voting for different people to protest against it But actually their anger with the way things are is coming from a similar place. It is coming from a similar place. Immigration is much more a concern for reform voters. It's very, very low down for green voters and it tends to be reform voters' number one issue. So that is something they coalesce a bit more strongly around. But you're absolutely right.

18:01Apart from that, they have huge amounts in common, those voters. And again, it's this sense that the economy is rigged against me, the country is rigged against me, and I've given up on the people that we've had in charge for the past five years, 10 years, 20 years. They no longer are up to it. We need something that's going to be more radical than that.

18:20Camilla: This is rather worrying and maybe it's a kind of hangover from the Corbynista era and also, of course, COVID. There are some quite socialist economic thoughts emerging, even from voters on the right, correct? So you found that two-thirds of those you polled think big business and the rich should fund public services. There's another stat in there saying that 41 % say taxes on big business are too low. This perhaps in part explains the popularity of somebody like tax the wealthy Zach Polanski, doesn't it, Lee? Yes, certainly. There was a real mood throughout when you sat in the focus groups and it was reflected in the polling that we have incredibly high levels of public spending.

19:07And people broadly were relaxed about this. And there was a view that this could be paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy and from business. That's where the majority of people think we can sort of fix many of our economic ills. And there's a real challenge for politicians here in how, you know, when we're asking them, okay, what areas would you cut? if you accept there's a need for cuts, what areas would you cut? People, well, they would say cuts up potentially. Yeah, that sounds sensible. When you dig into work and we make these cuts, that is where we came into resistance. People don't want to see cuts from the public services.

19:45They don't want to see any change to their own. They don't want to see lower taxes for themselves. Welfare broadly, they're kind of like, yep, maybe we cut welfare, but then what part of it? Migrants. Migrants is basically the only thing they would cut. Really? and net zero is doing the other thing they think we can go at.

20:02Camilla: They're OK with this ever-spiralling welfare bill. Well, it's a really interesting question. So on the face of it, again, if you say, oh, do you think we should have sort of lower taxes and a smaller welfare state, they'll say yes. And crucially, actually, a lot of voters who then, you know, will get into some of the trade-offs they weren't willing to make will come out and say off the bat things like, the country's not working for those who work anymore. You know, it's just not I work, why am I not being looked after? I get the sense that the country is looking after people better who do not work.

20:31We also tested things like the statistic the government is due to spend more on welfare than it will take in an income tax. And that was met with sort of shock and slight horror and a confusement about how that could be the case. But again, when you actually then, okay, you know, bearing all these things in mind, then let's look at the welfare budget. And let's think about where we can spend less, you know, to make some of these savings. As Lee says, there was, you know, pretty actually across the spectrum, a lot of support, not only the most progressive voters, but a lot of support for cutting welfare for migrants.

21:01However, most people thought that was then enough and they wanted to see increase in pensioners. No one thinks the triple lock is even on the table, for example. Really? Genuinely, I think that's one of the interesting things about the reform announcement that we had a few weeks ago. These voters, especially pensioners, weren't even contemplating that that would be taken away. They just think they see that as the bottom line. But when you start going through all these other things and they go, actually, yes, we do think people abuse the disability systems, but we must make sure that we still look after them.

21:24When you're asking them if they are then going to be right now under these conditions comfortable with very wholesale changes, they get very squeamish.

21:32Camilla: This is a result of the right having failed to make cogent arguments for capitalism over the course of the last 15 years. It also makes sense of where reform is sitting, which is, you know, you both mentioned people are willing to go after net zero and migrants benefits, but they're not willing to touch pensions. Well, that's essentially where reform has landed, isn't it? Yes. And indeed the welfare cat row that they've now said that they won't scrap the cat. Yes. But I do find conservatives have for decades expressed despair at the public saying, I want lower taxes and higher spending. But actually, I find that perfectly rational.

22:08who if asked, like a kid if asked do you want more chocolate ice cream? Yes please no one says no, I'm thinking about the future I'm thinking about future generations don't want that ice cream of course they say yes, it's up to politicians to make the argument for why that might not be possible and the interesting thing about your research is you're showing that people just aren't listening to the politicians because they don't trust them as a class

22:28Camilla: But they haven't heard those, I'm merely making the point I think we touched on it last week you know, the Arthur Laffer argument that you cannot tax your way to growth has been absent from all right-wing political dialogue since Thatcher. If you want somebody to restate the case for capitalism, this is why we see, and to be fair, he's had a pretty bad weekend because his theories on tax have been debunked in a video, Gary Stevenson. You get the kind of proliferation of these figures, these socialist figures like him and Polanski, who are actually talking abject nonsense. but unfortunately the other side just hasn't made the case.

23:08Camilla: So if you go on social media and you want to find an argument in favour of capitalism, you have to look for Thatcher. Who else is making that argument on the right? You have to look at YouTube clips of dead people to hear someone making the case for democratic capitalism. Don't you? And therefore this is why we see these Corbynista tendencies creeping into the economic thinking, even of those poised to vote for reform. That's the only point I'm trying to make here. I think that's quite a shift. I agree. I just don't think they are Corbynistic. I think they're perfectly rational. I think it's human beings just saying more chocolate ice cream.

23:40More free money that workers have to pay for. Part of it, I think, is that they've given up on concerns of the economy generally. So they're so focused on their own cost of living. And one of the things that I'm most interested in, which is a little bit sort of potentially galaxy brain for now, but the cost of living in the economy have become disaggregated in voters' minds. So they see the cost of living separately from the economy. They want their own cost of living fixed. I think especially since COVID, they want this fixed with government intervention. They want their taxes lowered. They want money off their energy bills.

24:09They want rent freezers. Potentially, they want money off their mortgages. They want money. The government's given money to help their cost of living. They're very upset about the cost of living. When it comes to the question of the economy then, firstly, they care less about it. And secondly, they're not even sure that if the economy did better, they would benefit. That was, again, one of the questions we continually asked. We were saying, if the economy grew, would you be better off? And a lot of them, again, and this is where I think a lot of that anti-establishment thought is really relevant.

24:34I think they've been used to politicians talking about growth. Now, obviously, we know that's been very stagnant growth. But talking about growth for a really long time, they've not seen or they don't think they've seen the benefits of that at all. And so now when you have politicians, as Labour did when they came in, you know, they sort of stop now. But talking about growth and how you get there, voters switch off because I'm not actually interested in growth. I'm interested in my energy bills. No one knows what the word means. I hate it when politicians talk about growth. I have no idea what you're talking about.

25:01How does it translate into a material benefit in my life? It reminds me a little bit around the sort of economic debate we were having in 2016 in the referendum, where you had the Remains side talking about we will be poor if we leave the European Union. All these things, George Osborne's punishment budget, all those things,£4 ,000 less off a year, all these sorts of things. a lot of our people, the great people who voted to leave at that point, a lot of those people looked at life and said, well, you'll be poorer. You know, those are the more affluent, sort of elite establishment people. You'll be poorer, yes.

25:39My life won't change that much because I'm already poor. So I will roll the dice. Because you don't hire a Romanian au pair, right? Right. I'm not worried about, you know, how many baristas we have. You're not doing business with Europe. You're not worried about trade barriers. Most people, it doesn't affect people. So there's a general presumption of, you know, it doesn't really make too much of a difference for me. I will roll the dice for something better. And we see that now, people looking desperately for change. Trust levels, as Scarlett said earlier on, trust levels in our political class and in our institutions is at a troublingly low level, particularly amongst these sort of insurgency parties.

26:13There's a real trust deficit from people who would vote for traditional parties like, you know, Conservatives and Labour and those at Reform and Greens. They no longer trust things like the BBC. They no longer trust our mainstream media. They no longer trust our political class. And they are desperately looking to somebody who, and they are totally rational on this. They would look and say, for 10, 15 years, we've been promised change. Elections come, they promise me change. And then they come in and nothing changes. And that's what's been so devastating for Keir Starmer is the whole ticket they ran on was change.

26:49That was the big thing slogan. Never defined, but people look at it straight away and go, no, you've not delivered anything like that and they've lost faith. And I think it's a troubling place for us to be in because if we go through another political cycle and we see reform into power and they don't deliver change, where do people go? I mean, Nigel Fry said in an interview a few months ago that people shouldn't be worried about me, they should be worried what comes after me if we fail. And I think that's a really wise observation and one we should all be looking at.

27:18Camilla: And we've seen other troubling polling, particularly among young people, sort of saying they prefer a dictatorship because at least it would, quote, get things done. Strong and stable. Yes, quite. You mentioned Brexit there, Lee. This is also interesting. People aren't blaming the concept of Brexit itself or indeed the vote to leave for the failure of Brexit. They're actually blaming politicians for it. 32 % blame the politicians who failed to deliver Brexit for how it has gone. That's the largest group in the polling. Having said all that, 49 % say Brexit has been bad for the country. 30 % think it has been good.

27:54Camilla: But most people... And that's logical. That's logical, yes. If you're saying the politicians blew it, then you're not saying you're against it to say it hasn't worked out. Yes. Because I think people look at the figures now and they think this must mean Britain is now a Remainer country. No. No, what people are saying is you blew it, not it's a bad idea. People are united in their condemnation of those who failed to deliver on the promises made during 2016. And interestingly, 43 % say a new referendum would further divide the country. 35 % think it would help. So I think we can conclude here that it's not so much regrets for how Leave is voted.

28:34Camilla: It's a regret at the fact that those who promised to deliver change post the referendum have failed to do so. Yeah, I think so. And again, I think Brexit or the handling of Brexit after Brexit rather than the referendum itself. So just how it's gone over the last few years has been a huge factor in that corrosion of trust with voters. And that both goes for voters who voted for it and people who voted against it. And we saw that a lot of people blame the state of the country. The ones who are more inclined to blame it on bigger factors rather than just to turn around and say, I really don't like Keir Starmer or whatever.

29:08That Brexit would always be one of the first things they said. But again, when you drill down into it, it's this idea that the politicians completely bungled it and failed, failed whatever it was they were tasked to do. Lee, there is one area where the public does seem to favour small C conservative reform, and that's the NHS. There is, I think what I found really interesting in some of the findings here was with the NHS, it is always been the place that nobody could touch, no political party can. But I think there's an acceptance now that we can't fix the NHS with just more money. That was one of the key things people came through.

29:44There's an understanding that it's not working the way we would like it to. And just simply shoveling in more cash isn't the future. So what we instead need to do is looking at ways, how can we fix that? And I think people are more open to potential changes, potential looking at how the NHS can work, different sort of ways of funding than they've ever been. Now, that is still a very live political wire, and it's not something I particularly recommend. But you can see that there is a definite vision from the public that this isn't going to be just fixed by money. And we do need to look at this.

30:16I should caveat that, that anything that looks remotely like an American style health system is incredibly toxic still. But I think there is a perception for many now that maybe the NHS isn't the best health system in the world, potentially. We can learn things from others and there's a way that we can potentially have a conversation of how we can improve the service that is politically viable now.

30:42Camilla: Coming up after a dreadful week for Zach Polanski, has the public been put off voting for the Greens?

31:02Camilla: Can we just reflect on recent events involving Polanski? I know you polled before he decided to call out the police's response to the man who allegedly stabbed the two Jewish people in gold is green. And the proceedings in that case are active. So we need to be very careful to not discuss further specifics. But in general, it seems as if over the weekend, Polanski's popularity has tanked on the back of this criticism. and indeed as more stories of anti-Semitic behaviour, posts, language used by Green councillors and others has emerged. What do the public know of Polanski? Do they recognise him as the leader of the Greeds?

31:44Camilla: What do they think of him as an individual? And is this, I think, with fast-crossing a Rubicon when it comes to anti-Semitism in this country, is that going to affect how people vote? So I think when it comes to how well people know Polanski in the new image of the Greens, it's very different depending on which voters you look at. So in general, I would say that it's not, I think, all of these things with what politicians say they're doing and what they say they're about takes much longer to cut through the public or it takes a lot more airtime than anyone ever thinks it does. And so what I noticed in the groups was that if you look at young progressive voters in urban areas, they do know about Plansky and they really, really like what they see.

32:22And they much prefer him to what Keir Starmer has on offer, towards what the Labour Party has on offer. And again, it's the sort of reheating, reassembly of that Corbynite sort of enthusiasm that we saw amongst those voters in 2019, 2017 as well. However, for much of the rest of the country, that image hasn't really seeped through yet. And actually they still, when we asked about Polanski, who's that? Don't know, sorry. You know, wouldn't recognise a picture of him and definitely didn't have a sort of view of the Greens that they changed. They were sort of still saying things like, well, they're about the environment.

32:50They say they're a bit of a wasted vote maybe, but they're about the environment and about something else. So I think we're in this quite interesting pattern for the Greens where they can be several things at once. I think we're starting to see that undo. I think what is interesting, though, is a bit like Farage and reform. You will see the shine come off them. Now, I don't think that's going to then necessarily benefit Labour, first of all. I don't think that necessarily means you'll get lots of voters going back there. But also, I think this was actually something that, and again, you can sort of think, I don't even think that Plansky is a particularly skilled politician, but I think it was a very deliberate choice to go after the section to try and reassemble that Corbynite platform.

33:29And that was quite a big platform. I mean, it was two very, very different elections, but got 32 % of the vote in 2019, got 40 % of the vote in 2017 under incredibly different contexts. But I think he decided and in some senses been vindicated between September and now in doing so by saying, I'm not going to straddle these sort of conservative environmental voters and our younger Bristol voters anymore, you know, as the previous co-leaders had quite literally done between their constituencies. I'm going to go out with a message about what, you know, we're for and it's going to be in this direction.

34:01That has clearly inspired a huge amount of enthusiasm in parts of the electorate, but we're now starting to see the downside of that as well. Do you detect from these groups that there is a limit for what progressive voters are willing to tolerate? I mean, so Polanski is accused of suggesting that some Jewish Britons are imagining anti-Semitism. And he appeared to criticise the police when they were arresting that person, Golders Green. And those are just two stories over the weekend that made me think maybe this is too much, even for the progressive left. Do they have a limit to what they will tolerate?

34:37I think there's quite a large section of younger, really quite young, but younger progressive voters who are very motivated by things like the conflict in the Middle East who might have views that are more unpalatable than a lot of people think.

34:51Camilla: Lee, the Muslim vote, which has been much discussed ever since 2024 really, how much did that feature in your polling and focus grouping? How concerned are people about the rise of Islamic extremism? Is that argument linked to some of people's concerns about illegal migration? What's the picture? So just before we come to that, the previous point that you made on the sort of events last week and Zach Polanski, I think because the general awareness of him as a political figure is relatively low, he's still at that point where he's yet to be fully framed in the mind of the public more broadly. and incidents like last week people look at the footage of the police apprehending the suspect in Golders Green and they will make their own judgment and they'll look at that and they'll make a judgment of whether they think those police officers acted accordingly I think most people in this country if they were in a similar situation will be very glad that police officers put their lives in danger and you know stopped an attacker and I think that you know the danger for Zach Plancy the danger of the Greens is they then become very quickly framed in all sorts of the public mind of a certain type of person.

36:05And once that framing sets, it's very difficult to change. So I think this week could be a particularly big moment, just like for Jeremy Corbyn. A lot of people, once they start to get to know him and saw him, went, no, not for me. You're not the sort of person I want leading this country. I can't imagine you as a prime minister of this country. And at some point, people will have to make that judgment. And I think those moments are pretty key, and I think they do start to set in people's mind. And I think that will happen. But if you're looking at the Greens then not being able to reach 30%, which I think was always going to be overly ambitious for them, but instead being able to stay between 15 % and 20 % because they have alienated a large part of the population, but they've got, say, 15 % that are really in their corner, in our new spectrum politics, that means they can still be hugely influential.

36:54Yes.

36:54Camilla: And the Muslim vote issue, Lee? I think this is becoming increasingly important within our sort of political system. We can see a real rise, particularly within the Green Party and on the left. I think we're going to see a lot more sort of independent candidates in many of these areas that will themselves carry quite a healthy part of the electorate. And that will really change a lot of how the vote share is going in a lot of these sort of areas. So I think we're going to see, particularly for Labour, it'll push them naturally to the left on a whole load of issues because there are, as Scarlett was saying, a lot of progressive voters, particularly young women, metropolitan areas, who are very energised by situations of things like what's happening in Gaza.

37:39To them it is a very critical political issue and they want to hear more from their politicians for that so there is an opportunity for the Greens and we can see them using those sort of issues and making them very prominent. And to many, they are just as important as sort of economic issues in some of these areas. So it's a real driver of votes. So I think we're going to have more and more of that part of the discussion. But Lee, these are local elections. They're about recycling and potholes. Why on earth are people dragging Gaza into it? I think that is part of the issue is that people don't see, certainly from our analysis, They don't really see the local elections as potholes and, you know, the usual local election issues.

38:21They see them more now, almost like UK midterms. This is very much, people say this over and over again, they are voting for a voice of what they think is happening in national politics. They're voting on national terms, national leaders. So I'm sure whoever's... That's always happened. Yes. Certainly more pronounced, I would say. In the past, if you were flipping between Tory and Labour, maybe I'll vote in a Lib Dem council, you were getting a group of sane people to step in a team attached to a party that had probably been trained in some way by central office and broadly operate according to a national manifesto, which is shaped by a national philosophy.

38:58Now, if you've got people going, it's a referendum on the government, so I'm voting green or I'm voting reform, you may well be electing in people who are just rubbish at local government, have never thought about it and have no operating principles. I get it being a midterms, but I just think the dynamic is slightly different here because you're taking such a huge risk on the kind of people you're voting for. I think people are so unhappy with the current state of play that they see it as a free hit to go and say, I'm not happy with the current government. I want change. This is another chance for me to tell you that I want change.

39:34and they're going to utilise that. And I'm sure whoever does poorly, whether it's the government and others who do poorly in the local elections this week will come out and say, well, actually, this is about local services. It's not about the prime minister. It's not about these other things. But in the minds of the public, this will be a huge rebuke, I suspect, for the Labour Party and one that they should take seriously.

39:54Camilla: Shall we conclude on Keir Starmer and whether he can, I don't know, survive these local elections, survive the month, survive the year, survive the parliamentary term? He's been in Yerevan. He's been in Armenia. He's been in Yerevan in Armenia. Where can I disappear to? It's going to be the prime minister is today in Mars. Yes. Avoiding looking at any polling as the country concludes his quotes week, week, week. So we now have apparently a rearguard action going on within the Labour Party that a number of MPs are poised to sign a letter demanding that the prime minister, quote, sets out a timetable.

40:32Camilla: Lee, you've been there. Scarlett, both of you, what are your predictions with your polling and other political experience hats on about the Prime Minister's tenure? So I think Keir is past the point of no return with the public. As we've seen from the research, they have entirely given up on Keir Starmer. They do not want to vote for Keir Starmer. They will not come back to Keir Starmer. So his term as Prime Minister with the public is already over in many ways. There's a broader question of how quickly do Labour move? They tend to be less adept at removing prime ministers than the Conservative Party, who can do it with great speed and gusto now.

41:10But I think often something like the local elections isn't usually the trigger in itself. I think the Mandelson situation was the end of Keir Starmer. But much like a sort of game of bookaroo, there are little things that keep getting put on. It's not necessarily the big saddle that makes the horse sort of buck. Sometimes it can be, you know, the small hat or the glove or the lasso. that sort of sends it up.

41:32Camilla: Always does it with a little hat. So if you're Keir Starman, the focus would be, can we get to the summer? And then you get to the summer and it's like, can we get to conference and reset and then, you know, so on. But that's what they'll be going for. But it'll often be something that we don't see, something small that makes the herd move. So to quote a former grey man, and I think that will come this year. At what point? I think it's hard to say. You know Angela Rayner is running because she's given up vapes. Yes, I heard this. She's cleaning up her act. I'm devastated. It's like Dylan going electric.

42:01Camilla: It is, but she'd had a few too many in strangers last week, apparently. Reportedly, yes. Well, maybe it's because she's giving up the bank because she's just been throwing drinks down the back of her neck. She walked into a door, she'll be demanding that pub doors be banned. It's discrimination. Also, it's dangerous to employees. We've got to remember they're right. Scarlett, sorry for my bad impression of a northerner. Your concluding thoughts on the future of this prime minister and indeed the chances of Angela Rayner replacing him? Well, I think that Lee is right. I think Keir Starmer's brand has actually been irrecoverable with the public for quite a long time.

42:35I think it's been at least the last six months or so. I don't think they will run him into the next election just because I don't think you can be MPs looking at your tiny majorities anyway and then looking at everything behind your shoulder and thinking, yes, this is the man to go. I just don't think that will happen. And when he does actually go, I'm not so sure I'm more minded like Lee to think that it will be something small. You know, it was Chris Pinscher in the end that toppled Boris within sort of 24 hours. These things can take a while and not actually be part of the big moment. So I think my perspective on the locals and how Labour behaves after it has slightly changed.

43:10I think if you'd asked me a month ago, I'd have said, well, that actually, you know, the advantage for Labour is that they've already baked in these terrible locals across the board. I think what's actually slightly changed that has been the threat of the Greens. And I think that was something they hadn't really fully baked in, especially in things like London. And I can fully see a world, especially if you're looking at places like Lambeth and Southwark go, as well as losing places like Sunderland and Barnsley to reform. I think if you're looking at some of these London places go to Greens, especially if the Greens managed to win them outright.

43:38I think that could panic MPs in a way that they weren't anticipating to be panicked.

43:41Camilla: So it's the headline of Thursday or Friday morning. And by the way, we will be recording. Am I calling it an emergency pod? It's just a pod. It's a regular early morning Friday pod, which we'll try and get out early with our reaction. What is the headline of Friday then? Labour bloodbath, Starmer in peril, reform on the rise, reform wipeout, Greens do spectacularly well. What's your prediction for the top headline? What's the top of the news list? Former Mirror journalist Lee Cain. Personally, I think I find it hard to look past what a catastrophic week it will be for Keir Starmer. I think that for me would be the takeaway of just the total collapse of the Labour vote.

44:20And there'll be lots of little subplots and things of interest, but I think it'll be the utter collapse of Labour that will be there.

44:26Camilla: Starmageddon. You can write it already. See, that's why you get paid the big bucks, clearly. Indeed. Let's not get back to that. Antagonise Tim here, whose education is far better than mine. Lee Cain and Scarlett Maguire, thank you both very much. Thank you. Thank you. We'll be back tomorrow, 5pm.

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45:23Camilla: Hi, I'm Shin Yee Pai Five years ago, I sat down in front of a microphone with the simple goal to share stories from the Asian American experience and to do that by talking about everyday objects Now 10 ,000 Things is headed into its fifth and final season and we've got a new set of stories about coming fully into oneself weird and wild and inspired Tune in to the final season of 10 ,000 Things from ACAST Creative Studios, a podcast about modern-day artifacts of Asian American life and the stories they reveal. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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