This Explains Everything (Ep. 2591)

24:58I don't understand what the downside is. What do you want us to read the Maceop's fables at night, too? I mean, the world is full of level 10 decisions. Give the oil to China and Russia or Venezuelan commies or do something at home and act and take on the political consequences of a tough decision. I'm with them on that one. What's not America first about that? Folks, the lens of history, again, isn't kind to people who fail to act. It may be palatable now. You may save yourself in the midterm by making cheap decisions that are not the right ones. The easy ones are not the right ones. But long term, when those glasses come off and people look at it with their eyes wide open, clockwork orange style, they look back and they say that guy sucked and wasn't a leader if they don't do the right thing.

25:41I'm not letting that happen. And we are definitely not letting the Democrat socialists and the now far left radical Democrats take over our government in these midterms. Now, we are going to get out there and we're going to vote. I don't know how well we're going to do. I can't predict the future pollings all over the place. All I'm telling you is the guaranteed way to lose is to not show up and not bring 10 people with you. This is what we're fighting. We are fighting the anti-anti-communist. For those of you who are P1s on my show, you know this term, P1 listeners. If not, I'm going to explain it to you now because it's critical you get this because I get this question all the time.

26:12You know, Dan, I don't understand the Democrats, socialists, the liberals, the progressives. They'll go and, you know, ally themselves with Iran. They'll throw gays off buildings. I thought they were big gay rights activists. They are not. They are anti-anti-communist. You are the anti-communist. You hate communism, correct? I'm an anti-communist. Justin's an anti-communist. The left needs to get you out of the way to take power. They don't care about immigrants, illegal immigrants, gay, lesbian, transgender, LGBTQIA, but they don't care about any of that. They just care about getting people out of the way or obstacles to them obtaining and abusing power.

26:48Therefore, David Horowitz, God rest his soul, Horowitz wrote this book, Unholy Alliance, And he talks about often this concept of the anti-anti-communist, how the left are just anti-anti-communist. They're just against you if you're in their way fighting communism. That's it. That's how you get stories like this in Newsweek. Like, what kind of sick mind do you have to come up with? On the anniversary of an American patriot, Charlie Kirk being brutally murdered, facing protests? We will not stand for this? We'll not stand for what? a memorial marking the one year anniversary the assassination of Charlie Kirk at the school where he was killed has sparked opposition with students organizing a protest against the event a young man went on college campuses where he knew he knew he would be outnumbered by hecklers and screamers and libs and progressives and commies 25 35 to 1 went out there and said, talk to me.

27:56Talk to me. Let me hear what you have to say. And he was shot and killed for it. And you've got a bunch of people protesting a memorial. Folks, we're at a dangerous inflection point. We've got real fights coming up yesterday. Yesterday I covered on the show a very important topic. We've got to focus, man. But people are all over the place. There's people out there engaging in full-blown propaganda campaigns. I don't know if they're paid for it. I don't know if they're just doing it because they hate America and want to be nihilist. But we've got to focus right now. Or this kind of lunacy that cement is going to dry and we're going to have a hard time jackhammering it up.

28:35You want to see what this stuff looks like, by the way? Abolishing private property if we let the concrete harden and the DSA starts taking power. The Democrat Socialists of America back in this election. you like private property? I showed you yesterday in the Wall Street Journal article where private property owning a cell phone in a house polls very well amongst youngsters. So why would you vote for the Democrat Socialists of America? Let me make it easy for you. You probably understand Airbnb, right? So you're claiming to be a socialist. You're going to vote for the socialist. Here's what it looks like on the mild end when you lose, you don't necessarily lose your private property, but you lose your private property rights.

29:15The Democrat Socialists of America that have infected your party that we're fighting against want to take your property to. This is what it looks like on the milder end when you even lose your right to that property through progressive liberal laws that benefit non-property owners over other people. Listen to this horror story about an Airbnb that aired on one of the local news stations. You for this? Your property be next if you don't smarten up. Check this out. Airbnb guest refused to leave her townhome in Hermosa Beach. That weeks-long rental became a weeks-long nightmare for the homeowner.

29:49He just refused to leave. Weissman is talking about this guy. Do you think it's fair that you're staying here and not paying? Yeah, it's really fair. Lamarck was living in Weissman's Hermosa Beach townhome, which he originally booked for a month through Airbnb. Weissman says after paying for 48 days, though, he refused to leave and he It's going, it's definitely

30:17they establish tendency r you have to use the civil

30:26says that process in Calif six months or even longer a six month eviction proc would equal more than$70 ,000 in lost rental income. This is going to devastate me if he ends up staying, you know, for any length of time. Plus, she stals to pay her mortgage and property taxes during that time and all the attorney fees related to eviction. They haven't even stolen this lady's house, Justin. But they've de facto stolen it because she hasn't rights switched. She can't live there. She's paying the bills for someone else to live there. How could you possibly support this? when it kicks you in the nads you won't support it that's the problem with this stuff is they want to get in office and do this and they're giving you a bunch of noise not signal when they tell you the signal about what they're going to do people in polls go well i don't want that i want to own house you don't own that house the squatter does this is just the beginning wait till you have no property rights at all folks and to watch your heroes on the left this is what we're fighting against.

31:35It's a critical election. We've got to get people focused and ready for the fights ahead. The primary contender for the next presidential election, one of them, is going to be Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, where insanity like this persists, where property rights, de facto property rights, got thrown out the window a long time ago. How do you own your property if you're not allowed to live in it? You've got to pay for someone else's living. The answer is you don't. It's neo-socialism. here's coverage on gavin newsom who i'm going to show you a clip coming up after this actually with charlie where gavin newsom hair gel this is the this is what it looks like when everything is noise and no signal where they just tell you things to cloud your judgment whatever they think you want to hear left-wing politicians whatever they think everybody should have a free job fat barney sharing is caring everybody's got a job everybody should be paid five hundred thousand dollars a year they don't mention anything about merit or effort they tell you dumb stuff they believe will appeal to suckers because it's all noise gavin newsom after the election when donald trump won in a rout over kamala harris tried to take a pivot to the right even though he's a natural born communist because he thought he could lie to people and pull the wool over their eyes i'll show you that coming up in a second but here he is now pivoting again back to well the dsa Democrats, Socialists of America.

32:57It's like a big tent party. Well, who's in the tent matters? You don't want to invite Freddy Krueger in the damn tent. Who's in the tent matters? This guy is a phony, a fake, and a fraud. And regardless of what you think about President Trump, at least he tells you how he really feels and makes politically unpalatable decisions even when he knows the politics aren't great. Here is the other side of that coin. A total fraud. I'll tell you anything because he thinks you're a sucker if you're going to vote for him. Check this out. Governor Gavin Newsom of California says he's not alarmed by the rise of socialism.

33:29When asked if Democrats should distance themselves from the DSA, Newsom said, quote, no, I'm for a big tent party. It's where a lot of the energy in the party is. So why would you ever dismiss that? I bet you it took him 45 minutes to say that quote. It doesn't get any clearer than that, Joe, does it? 20 seconds to you. Word. Yeah. Word economy is not Gavin Newsom's friend. And he's the ultimate weather vain politician. Wherever the winds are blowing, Gavin's going to take that splashy sailboat rhetorically and go along for the ride. Whatever gets the most votes, this shapeshifter who really, really, really wants to run for president and is going to, has been running for the last six years, he'll adapt to whatever movement will get him over the finish line.

34:08If he's going to embrace the socialist movement, all right, I guess he's for abolishing prisons, abolishing the Department of War, the Senate, the presidency, believes the government should run all aspects of health care. That's where we are at this point. That's Gavin Newsom. Get elected and worry about everything later. I love to paint contrasts on the show because politics are contrasts. It's not good enough to tell people this is what I'm about. You have to contrast it with this is what my opponent's about and make the contrast work. Put the diamond on a black background. It looks that much more, you know, shiny.

34:36The contrast matters. Compare what Rubio said before about Venezuelan oil fields, clearly, crisply, concisely explaining how, listen, I get none of this is ever going to be pretty. However, we have a choice. China or Russia take the oil and use it to build a military machine to put a mushroom cloud over Washington, D.C., or potentially attack Taiwan and cause World War III, or we can take it. I get it. None of this is cute. However, this is how it has to be. Contrast that with how Gavin Newsom constantly licks his finger with Joe Conchicoma weather vein. He's absolutely right and changes his mind depending on what day of the week it is.

35:17Is that what you want? Here was Gavin Newsom with Charlie after the election talking about the term Latinx. Hat tip Mays Moore for this great clip. Remember Latinx? Latinx? Nobody uses that term Latinx. Really? Nobody uses that term? He's never heard it before? Hat tip Mays Moore for this one. You sure about that? You want to retract that one, Gavin? Check this out. One person ever in my office has ever used the word Latinx. So can we finally put that to bed? Yeah, but where did that even know more Latinx? Well, I just didn't even know where it came from. I'm like, what are people talking about?

35:51Impactful. This has been on the Latinx community, Latinx community. Politicians that are banning not assault rifles, but the word Latinx. Nothing I dislike more than the politician that sits there and lies to you. And we all just sit there rolling our eyes going. Give me a break.

36:14folks the reason commies socialists and the doom and gloom black pillar crowd want to create distrust in everything and everyone all the time is because we can get people to distrust everyone you can fill that vacuum with any piece of false information because people become really desperate for truth at that point there is a tactic and a strategy behind this that's fairly obvious when you've seen it over the decade plus i've been involved with politics activism and as a candidate myself. People will believe in anything when you break them down and you break any attachment to true north. When everyone's lying to them all the time and even people are telling, they'll ignore people even when the truth is right in front of them.

36:53That's what they want to do. They want to create such mistrust amongst everybody out there. You see the doomers doing this too that anyone will believe anything. You'll fill that vacuum with garbage. That's how you get insanity like this. I got to tell you, I said last week covering the Lindsay Clancy trial that resulted in a mistrial, that this is one of the first times I've been involved in political commentary, true crime commentary, where I genuinely don't understand whatever the other side. I just don't get it. My suspicions on this case is, again, there's such a vacuum of credibility out there with all the propaganda and garbage that people will fall for anything hat tip i saw this on end wokeness this is a video that's been going around with if this is one of the most disturbing things i've ever seen if you missed it on x it's a video of people showing pictures of what appears to be their kids me too lindsey like folks i'm really sorry but if this is your significant other with your kids out there?

38:06Hmm. Now you may say, well, Dan, it's an exaggeration. It's not like anyone's going to do something to their child because they're heavily invested in the Lindsay Clancy case and are searching for some truth in their empty lives. Really? Here was a Fox News report from the other day about exactly what I just said. Check this out. An Illinois mother accused of murdering her two-year-old son. Prosecutors say Corey Walsh was very invested in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial before her son's death. So this comes as Clancy's defense attorney is speaking out for the first time after the triple murder case was ruled a mistrial last week.

38:49Another sad case in which police have charged a mother with killing her own child. This one in Frankfurt, Illinois. and there is a connection, as you mentioned, with the Lindsay Clancy case. Apologies up front. The details here are horrible. There's no way around it. A neighbor reported coming in the house and finding two-year-old Barrett, who had the nickname Bear, hanging from a rafter in the basement of the house. She called 911, attempted CPR, but that little boy was already cold. She found the mother upstairs in a bloody tub with a knife. According to the affidavit, the defendant had cuts to her wrists and thighs.

39:17The defendant told officers she did this to her baby because he was the devil and the antichrist. It connects to the Clancy case because according to the affidavit, Walsh had been following the Clancy case and had been actively discussing the case via group message with her friends up until 1230 p.m. September 1st, 2026, and at three and a half hours before the scene was discovered. Folks, again, we always bring receipts. I warned you about this. how once the Overton window is moved on what's perceived to be acceptable human behavior, there are going to be people who move with it. We are at a really dangerous point.

39:58There are real fights coming up. We've really got to focus and just drown out the noise like I discussed yesterday. Focus like a laser on Signal right now because we cannot afford to lose this country and go down this path of insanity anymore. I'm going to take a quick break and show you what it looks like when truth hits you. It's a clip from a little bit ago, but it's worth your time to show you what it looks like when truth slams Democrats right in the face. And then one of them will have to use a little a couple of the Alinsky rules on him as well. You see what I mean coming up last break.

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41:38Application times may vary. rates may vary thanks ethos we appreciate it here's what i'm talking about again you know i i use the alinsky rules against the democrats often i'm gonna get to that in a second but i saw this surface yesterday on x again and it just like gavin newsom who will lie to your face about latinx latinx whatever stupid terms they make up and euphemisms the democrats will lie to your face about what they represent even though what they represent is on video digital recording and all you have to do is ask him about it. Do you guys remember this? This is one of our greatest hits.

42:12This was Lawrence Jones on Fox & Friends interviewing Democrat Senator Shaheen. And he asked her a question. She said, I've never seen that happen. Just like Gavin Newsom. I've never heard anyone use the term Latinx. Here's you, Gavin, using the term Latinx. I love it when it just slams them right into chops. Check this out. I haven't heard anybody in my party saying that illegal immigrants should get access to the health insurance marketplace. I'm so glad you said that. Actually, I have some tape of your Democratic Party members saying this on the debate stage. So they've all said, and let's play the clip.

42:47A lot of you have been talking tonight about these government health care plans that you've proposed in one form or another. This is a show of hands question, and hold them up for a moment so people can see. Raise your hand if your government plan would provide coverage for undocumented immigrants.

43:09Senator, that's literally every member of your party, from moderate to more progressive, that have said that in the past. That's only every single person running for president on stage raising their hand in the Democrat side. These people lie to your face. Do you want Rubio? Do you want Trump? Do you want truth tellers who make level 10 decisions as commander in chief, as national security advisor, as a member of the cabinet, as secretary of state? Or do you want people like Gavin Newsom and Gene Shaheen who are just going to lie to your face and have your Airbnb turned into a squatter house because they lied to you about what private property means and doesn't?

43:54Don't be a sucker for this, man. sometimes we have to use a little humor to highlight the stupidity of all these dumb ideas i saw this yesterday and i don't know about you guys but when i first saw it for a second i thought is this real the only reason i thought it was real it's a guy using humor to highlight the stupidity of mom dommies government-run grocery stores however government-run grocery stores are such a freaking stupid idea that for a second i thought well this could be true and i thought no Oh, no way. He just started. There's no way they built this thing already. However, this is just to be open and honest.

44:28It is humor. However, it's an excellent use of humor to highlight the stupidity of a communist grocery store in the middle of New York City. Check this out. Check out Mom Donnie's$30 million New York City owned grocery store. The first thing I noticed is the aesthetic. Very bare, very minimalist and very Mom Donnie. I love how limited the selection is. Not too many choices means that I'm not going to get overwhelmed with options. And for a non-binary, neurodivergent, polyamorous person experiencing whiteness, that's a huge plus. This place reminds me of like a Soviet Union-era Whole Foods. I did find some fun things like corn boil seasoning and frosted flakes that vaguely resembled smooth testicles, but they were out of my price range.

45:06So I just ended up getting a box of Jell-O. And it was great because I was able to pay with my oppression and racial equity cards. Democracy wins again. Who is that? L. Stay Stamen? L. E. Stamen on Instagram? Genius. Folks, the humor works. Why does the humor work? Why are jokes funny? Jokes are typically funny that have some basis in reality with some hyperbole exaggeration and a side of humor served. They're usually that much funnier. That's exactly what a government grocery store is going to look like while Mamdami does the platitude thing. We're going to get cheaper groceries for everyone.

45:39How are you going to do that, bro? How are you going to figure out how to deliver cheaper groceries rather than people who run grocery stores for a living? The answer is you're just going to steal taxpayer money to do. Why not tell people the truth? Because like Gavin Newsom and Gene Shaheen, you can't. All you have is noise. When people see the signal for what it is, they're going to be repulsed. They're going to vomit on sight. So you have to lie to them. Contrast that again with Trump and Rubio. They had to deliver the hard news. They had to lead. They can't always explain why every decision was made in the national security space because there are sources and there are live military actions going on right now they can't expose.

46:23But you want this as an alternative? And throw the polling out the window. I've got Captain Seth Keschel coming up next. He has a really fantastic X account. If you want to discuss how elections are rigged, the easiest way to rig them, the problems with mail-in balloting, you want to discuss why faith and fidelity in the system is disappearing this is your guy he's done an exhaustive amount of homework on it but one of the things we're going to get into too is what went wrong with polling now there's all this polling out there now the election's happening right now again early voting starts so early now forget november election day the election's on right now for the midterms we can't lose to the jaheens and the newsomes and the others and the you know, the commie socialist mom Donnie's with his stupid ass freaking communist grocery store BS.

47:15And the polling out there suggesting that you should stay home because we're getting killed in this election. They said the same thing before the Trump-Kamala Harris election. Check this out. I just saw this surface yesterday from the Washington Post, November 4th, 2024. This is right before the election. It sounds like the same op going on now where people are trying to tell you stay home, don't vote, you Republicans are all going to get your butts kicked. Analysis by Aaron Blake. The final New York Times-Siena College swing state poll show late deciding voters breaking for Kamala Harris. They broke for Kamala Harris?

47:49Who would have known? Who would have known? Among those who said they had decided in the last few days, Harris led by 16 points, 58 % to 42%. Justin, how did that work out? It did not. What? Andy, you weren't even here. How did that work out? Andy's saying that's two thumbs down on Yelp. That pollster definitely didn't nail that one. Folks, throw the polls out. I'm going to get into it with Seth Keschel about the exact problems with the polls. I don't know. What is it? Cell phones? Whatever it is. The polls just throw them out. I would estimate probably half the polls you see are garbage polls paid for by candidates who don't want bad news, who just seek out a poll company who's going to give them a biased result.

48:31It's kind of like why, you know, major left-wing newspapers don't want to write anything positive about Donald Trump. They know the subscriptions will get canceled. I thought they were into being journalists. They're not into being journalists. They're into collecting paychecks. Cut the crap. I'm not knocking all pollsters, but some won't give bad results and have garbage models. One thing that we're really, I think, excelling at is we're building a big coalition going forward that the Democrats are just missing out on. And one component of it I've seen really flourishing and flowering is the Make America Healthy Again movie.

49:08You know I love this. I'm into like facts. We've tried to incorporate into the show frequently Make America Healthy Again moments. I think they're great for everybody. I love it. I saw this the other day. Jasmine sent it over. You know we're big coffee drinkers. We love our blackout coffee. Big fans on the show, as you can imagine. coffee changes your gut microbiome even decaf rachel ann melagrito at epic times folks you have the microbiome you have these gut bacteria bacteria bad well some bacteria are bad but some bacteria in your microbiome are actually really helpful that's why some people they do you know yogurt kefir others they do probiotics so it turns out habitual coffee drinkers have distinctly different gut microbiome profiles from those who do not drink coffee fascinating i did not know this i had not seen this before thank you jasmine it's not even a producer for sending this over certain bacteria become more abundant among coffee drinkers including cryptobacterium curtam and egg or cell egg or cella they sound like graffiti names from 1980s new york both involved in digestive processes such as recycling bile acids that help digest fats here's two cheers big foamy figure one figure thumbs up for coffee i love me some coffee you know we love blackout they found higher levels of several coffee related metabolites including parazanthine known to have neuroprotective and antioxidant effects i'm not even going to try to pronounce it and another compound associated with anti-inflammatory activity and a lower risk of parkinson's disease again two to ten cheers for coffee we love our coffee i drink a ton of it every single day i love it All right.

50:52Without further ado, getting to our guest today, I'm really looking forward to this. Captain Seth Keschel, he's fantastic. He's a great election analyst. I strongly encourage you to find him on X. Don't miss this interview. Check this out.

51:09Welcoming to the show, a guy I follow on X. Really great insights on elections. What's wrong with elections? What could be right with elections if we could fix it? also some really good thoughts I saw in his ex account on a tweet I saw about 9-11 that bothered me too. I want to welcome to the show Captain Seth Keschel. Sir, welcome to the show. Thanks for your time today. And it's great to be on with you. Glad to see you. Yeah, you as well. I've followed your work for a long time. You're really, really good, you know, kind of prognosticator when it comes to elections and tamping down a lot of kind of doomerism out there we've seen.

51:45But before we get to elections and what could be rigging elections and the problems with elections that you've covered with books and other things, you had a post up I want to put up on the screen responding to someone about 9-11, obviously the 25th anniversary of that abomination of a day, just horrifying for all of us who lived through it. There was a post up by Futuristic Fudge on X, and it said, people born pre-9-11 have such a weird, worshipful attitude about it. You know, You responded accurately. So it completely changed. The American century was the largest terror attack ever in our country.

52:20People were leaping to their deaths rather than being consumed by flames. We still haven't recovered our footing. It was terrible. And everyone who was old enough to remember it will never forget it. Go to 9-11 Museum in New York City. It will hit you. Sir, I feel the exact same way. I was a young Secret Service agent just outside of New York and Long Island when it went down. You know, my brother was down there, worked for the New York City Fire Department as an EMT. We couldn't find them that day. I mean, there were if you live through that, your life is essentially pre 9-11 and post 9-11. That is like the demarcation point where every single thing changed.

52:56I can't believe that people who even look back at the archival footage who may not have lived through it don't understand that. Well, you know, if you look at a fourth turning mindset, that was my generation's pivotal event. You know, other generations look back at the Challenger. Then you've got JFK. And before that, you have Pearl Harbor. This is definitely a generational thing that happened. And it was something that plunged our country. Really, we went teetering into the 21st century. And we're still trying to recover our footing. We had two wars that resulted largely from what happened in 9-11.

53:28And I think that in some of that were justified for wanting to go out and find. Now, of course, the two wars that we fought wound up being like your standard counterinsurgency throughout history. Lots to be desired. And those are the teachable lessons that we look at with the Iran conflict. Nobody wants to put boots on the ground in a country that is 2x the population of Iraq and four times the geographic size. So when I looked at that tweet, I clicked the guy's bio. He didn't seem to be somebody that was against us, but he was 20 years old. And this is somebody that was born five years after 9-11.

54:00So, of course, he's not going to understand it. But for those of us who've lived it, we'll never forget it. Yeah, I just remember going home and driving out. I was living all the way out in Selden, Long Island and driving 40, 50 miles back, you know, from the city at that point. And the highways were empty. I mean, you remember there's no one on the road. The only people on the road were cops and cops leaving work. That was it. I mean, by the end of the night, the roads were completely desolate. And, you know, I thought, you know, gosh, I'll never see anything like that again. Unfortunately, we had COVID where the roads were empty too, but for different reasons.

54:34But yeah, I thought that was really insightful. I saw you comment on your ex account too, before we get to the election material about, you know, the Lindsey Clancy trial. This is, I think, the reverse scenario where I don't understand how people don't understand us if we live through 9-11. I know you can just watch the footage of what happened. It was obviously horrifying. But the Lindsey Clancy trial, I don't understand that either. I'm having a hard time getting my arms around the idea that there is a group of people that It's not small either. I get their feedback on the show and messages that support this woman.

55:06I mean, the facts of the matter have not changed at all. They're not in dispute. It's only the way that either legally or morally or had you try to justify away the killing of three innocent children. This is I think America is having a moment with this case, too. Well, none of it checks out. This is to essentially say that if you are a man and you are enraged about somebody bumping into your wife on a crowded street, that you should go kill that person. Or that now we can just excuse rape as a product of testosterone. So this is clearly something where we've lost all basis in reality. This woman, in a premeditated act, sent her husband far away to grab food, searched up about everything she could find about strangling children with exercise bands, and then carried out the act.

55:53So clearly there has to be some sort of justice delivered here. And however, we wound up with a nine to three female jury. That's another problem. But the impact of social media and TikTok and endless scrolling on these jurors definitely created. We had one guy that wanted to find her guilty. You know, that's that's a ninety one point seven percent wanted her off the hook. I think ninety one point seven percent of America wants this woman to hang in public. it. We're talking to Captain Seth Keshul. We'll give him a follow on X. Got a great account if you're looking for election coverage. Seth, one of the things I initially I think that attracted me to your account is your coverage of the problems we're having with elections over the last few election cycles.

56:37These problems are fairly obvious unless you're playing the whole, you know, I don't want the Sergeant Schultz. I don't see nothing. I don't hear nothing. I don't out ballots, probably a better way to say, you mail out a bunch of ballots to a bunch of people who may or may not have requested them. You lose this intermediary middleman that was a source of maybe uncovering a fraud. You lose the election, you know, the election staff where you have to show up, either show an ID or even if you don't show an ID, at least it has to be a person. And if that person were to come back twice to vote again, that election, you know, official right there might say, hey, you were just here before.

57:17That's not the case with a mailbox where you can make repeated visits to a mailbox who is not going to recognize you. It's not an AI mailbox. It's not going to know anything. And then when you combine that with ballot harvesting and you basically deputize a lot of people to go and harvest or collect these ballots who may not have an interest in election security at all, they may in fact have an interest in election insecurity, you got a real problem. Well, Dan, I think that looking beyond our borders It explains a lot about what the rest of the world believes about the way America is now conducting elections.

57:5034 out of 47 European countries all but ban mail-in voting. Some of those that allow it, allow it for citizens living overseas, which is not a large number of people. You can look at the German elections this weekend. Results were beginning to change as mail-in ballots were coming in because Germany does allow some mail-in voting. Now, as far as our country goes, the problem starts with voter registration. Automatic voter registration started to find its way into our elections in 2015 and 2016, starting in the West Coast. By the time the 2020 election rolled around, 20 states ran automatic voter registration, usually through the DMV.

58:26Joe Biden won or won 18 out of those 20 states, 243 electoral votes to nine. Now, moving into the 2024 election, Trump managed to pull a couple of them back, anyone Pennsylvania. But he wound up winning all but five electoral votes, not under automatic voter registration. So we can see the tip of the iceberg with that in New Jersey, with Governor Sherrill sort of letting it hang out. There's 6 ,600 non-citizens registered. But that doesn't account for people that have moved within the state to a different address, moved out of state, people who are deceased or the real Democrat go to, which is people that completely don't exist at all.

59:03Now, when you create the reservoir of fictional registrations, then you can send out the mail-in ballots. Universal mail-in voting states send them out like the fountains of Bellagio. Then you've got like here in Arizona where you have a permanent mail-in voting list in the largest counties. Then you have the early voting period in Pennsylvania. That's 49 days for people to go collect these ballots. I ran some studies that suggest that for a pretty small price tag, you could farm up 100 ,000 ballots in Orange County, California. So when you look at the decisive House races this year, there are about four races in California that are on the periphery of being in play.

59:40The way that they can make sure they're not in play is by exercising the power of changing the laws of elections. So what it has been essentially is the changing of laws in these states that have created quasi-elections and therefore we're no longer getting votes. or collecting ballots like coupons at a grocery store. Yeah, listen, I agree. This is, you know, we've been so successful and stable for so long. I mean, not relative to, you know, other empires, but relative to a unique constitutional republic. It's been obviously 250 years that I think we take for granted the fact that the Constitution, it's a wonderful document.

1:00:19I love the way our founders put it together in the both horizontal and vertical breakdown and separation of powers and checks and balances. However, Seth, as you know, it's just a document. It's all it is. It doesn't have any like X-Men-like superpowers where if you disobey, you're gonna be vaporized right away. It doesn't work that way. The Constitution and the Republic only functions because people believe in and have fidelity to the system and its governing laws and documents. It can all break down and has many times throughout human history. If we don't believe that our elections are free and fair, and are an accurate determinant of the people's voice and who won, the rest of the stuff is all for naught.

1:00:59Like you can't keep a republic going in multiple election cycles. You know, you may get away with it once or twice. I wish it didn't happen. But over 10 or 15 years, if people just give up and don't believe the results are real anymore. Well, that's one of the first stages to work the collapse of a republic is when people no longer believe that the election results or the system of electing leaders are credible and trustworthy. You can look back at a number of elections, and election corruption is not something that is new. It's something we know a lot more about. But you can trace America's election problems all the way back to the 19th century with Boss Tweed, who happens to have a caricature on the cover of my book.

1:01:37But they've been trying to rig elections in this country. It's a bipartisan sport. It's mostly a Democrat hobby. But you can find a mail-in ballot scheme to steal the election of 1864 from President Abraham Lincoln with the mail-in ballots of soldiers from New York who had individual mail-in ballots rather than a company, essentially a score sheet signed by the commanding officer. You can go all the way through issues that have happened in the 20th century. You can move into even Republicans committing election fraud with mail-in ballots in North Carolina in 2018. So I encourage people before they jump on any bandwagon about what people have to say about elections to go look at the facts.

1:02:15Our elections are extremely vulnerable and we've operated on the social contract of, well, that's not something that should be happening in America. And now what is happening now, especially with the Constitution, we have states that are running corrupt, corrupt elections using the elections clause, which states the state legislatures have the authority to determine the time, place and manner of elections. But what they're doing is essentially morphing elections to whatever they say an election is. It's going to be eight weeks long or it's going to be mail-in ballots are mandatory for everybody, regardless of how you feel about it.

1:02:46And then when the federal government tries to come in and say, hey, these are federal elections, you're trying to use the federal mail service. Then the states are running behind into courts and they're judge shopping and they're delaying this process, trying to, of course, like they did last time, wait out the Trump administration for an administration who's going to be a little more understanding of what they're trying to do. And what they're trying to do is create elections that are no longer about vote getting, but ballot collection. We're talking to Captain Seth Keschel. Give him a follow on X.

1:03:14definitely worth your time. I'm glad you brought up that point about this extended early voting election as well, because, you know, having run for office myself, it works like an incumbent protection plan. You know, incumbents in office are typically going to have either a money advantage or they're going to have more supporters, especially on the Democrat side. When I say, I don't mean more supporters than voters, I mean like more supporters out there gripping and grinning for them. They'll get, you know, sometimes unions in their court. Sometimes you'll have teachers unions and others. It's really hard as a new and upcoming candidate to go out there for a month and have people at polling locations handing out, you know, your literature, hey, you know, vote for Dan, whatever.

1:03:54It's really difficult to do that. And having these election periods, typically what they'll do is the incumbent will schedule a debate two days before the election, knowing, you know, 40, 50 percent of people already voted. I think it's a big scam. I'm glad you brought that up. Let me move into a different direction on the elections as well. So, Seth, I got to ask you kind of a big global umbrella. What the hell is wrong with polling? I mean, the polling just seems to be all over the place. And it's a bipartisan fiasco. You obviously had the polling all over the map in 2016. You know, Washington Post wrote an article, Donald Trump's chances of winning are approaching zero.

1:04:27Obviously, that didn't work out. I put a tweet up before we got to you on the show today from the Washington Post from back with the Kamala Harris Trump election, where they predicted these swing voters were all breaking for Kamala. That obviously turned out to be crap. But then just recently, we even see with the Abdul El-Sayed polling in Michigan, the Democrat Senate candidate, obviously a Democrat primary, the polling was completely out of whack. He was supposed to win by something like 10 points and barely got by. Is it cell phones? I mean, what's going on with the polling? Well, there's a lot of issues with polling.

1:05:01And I know a few people that when I get critical of polling, I always feel a little bit bad. You know, not being on a personal level trying to trash somebody's craft. However, polling is a lot different than it was when it was more accurate 40 years ago. Part of it has to do with how people reach voters. A great example would be Wisconsin. Wisconsin is notoriously hard to poll because the most conservative faction of that state, especially in the Trump era, lives in these vast hinterlands in the northern portions of the state. Much more difficult to track down voters. It's hard to screen for likely voters based on a candidate who's going to pull people out of the Northwoods to vote for the first time in 30 years.

1:05:38So that's difficult to measure turnout. Then you've got other people that are more likely to answer polls if it was a landline-based poll, or then you have an Internet-based poll that may not reach enough senior citizens. And then you have the problem with sponsorship because polling is expensive. All right, so then you've got the sponsor who's going to want to run a poll for his candidate. Make sure you don't show him too far down. That would be like your internal polling. This is why you have polls that show Democrats that are within, you know, tied in the South Dakota Senate race, which is completely insane because rather than looking at polling, you can look at candidate behaviors.

1:06:10Like when Ann Seltzer ran a Harris plus three poll in Iowa, everyone knew it was wrong because if it were true, Harris would have gone there. She could have completely cut off Trump's direct path into the 270 plus electoral vote range. So you have that. Then you have straight up corruption. You know, every once in a while, you think Republicans would just happen to win elections. But even in red years, like a Biden as president midterm or 2024, you find all the polling favoring Democrats. You can look at races where the same pollster would find Donald Trump is going to lose Arizona, but he's going to win Nevada.

1:06:44Well, somebody like me is going to go back into the open source intelligence and look at the two states, which have both been in the union since 1912. Nevada back in the 1800s, but both have been states since 1912. And we've had red Arizona and red Nevada in a presidential election. We've had blue Arizona and blue Nevada. We've had red Arizona and blue Nevada, but we've never had red Nevada and blue Arizona. So I can spot polls that are bad just looking at things like that. And the final problem with polling, even when they're done by honest people, is that they're no longer precise. So when you look at a poll and they say we have a three-point margin of error, Well, 3 % in Pennsylvania is about 220 ,000 votes.

1:07:22That's a lot of votes. Trump's winning margin in Pennsylvania. It's a ballot count now, but it was still 120 ,000. So that doesn't help me a lot. That's why I use voter registration by party, but it's really only useful for presidential elections to predict trend. So I think that that really epitomizes the issues. And on the topic of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania and Ohio are cousins politically. Kamala Harris had fewer votes in Ohio than John Kerry had in 2004, but she had almost as many ballots as Joe Biden did in Pennsylvania. That's because they loosened the mail-in ballot laws, which is now no excuse mail-in voting thanks to Act 77, which was helped along the way by the Republican Party, which can't get out of its way.

1:08:03yeah i mean we really this i wish this save act would have uh would have made more progress it's just devastating it would have gone a long way to re-establishing election credibility in the eyes of skeptics out there who are just looking for free and fair elections i don't want anybody cheating not republicans not democrats not greens i don't care who you are mag or elsewhere i don't want anybody anybody cheating in elections let me ask you this i saw this on your x feed as well we're talking to captain seth keschel really uh insightful election commentary i strongly encourage you to check it out, his X account.

1:08:33Also check out his book. The book is the book title set, The American War on Election Corruption, Seth Keschel, K-E-S-H-E-L. Make sure you check that out wherever you get your books. You can see the picture up on the screen now. Wave elections. I've made this argument to supporters of the show often in both directions. During the Biden midterm election, there was a lot of talk. You remember as well. Everything was red waves. We're going to win 70 seats or whatever. I saw some, you know, really, I think, destructive hyperbole because red wave talk, if you're a Republican, doesn't do you any good.

1:09:11Because if you really believe we're going to win all these seats and it's going to be a rout, people are just going to stay home because they don't think their vote is necessary. And if you don't believe it, why are you saying it? So it doesn't matter. Like we should treat every election like a 50-50 fight right there. I'm however seeing the same conversation break out on the Democrat side now who seems to believe that they seem to believe this Trump midterm Trump 47 midterm is going to be really good for them blue wave. But with gerrymandering and others, the math just doesn't work like it did during the Tea Party era and earlier where you would have 30, 40, 50 seat shifts.

1:09:45It's just not there anymore. The gerrymandering and the cutting up of districts have made that really difficult? Well, that's what people are not getting about this. Nobody really knows what the generic ballot is going to be. You find some crazy polls that have it at D plus 11, D plus 12. And then you'll find one like you had Harvard Harris X, which was R plus two last week. I'm not buying that either. I go even keel when it comes to polling. When they're good for me, I throw it out. When they're bad for me, I ignore it too. I think that the crosstabs sometimes can tell you some stuff, like you can see a stronger Latino vote share.

1:10:17Usually it helps disqualify polls. But when you look at generic ballot, this is not 2014. This is not 2018. The seats are largely cut to reflect the current presidential trends anymore. And my worksheet for house races, I have 389 seats out of 435. So 89 % of the seats I have is decidedly red or decidedly blue. It would take a wave of some sort to make any of those predictions is wrong and we're not going to have a red wave this year. 20 out of 23 midterms since 1934, the president's party loses seats in the House. So it could be a blue wave? Possibly. It could also be a reverse 2022 where the Dems are struggling to get a majority if they can get it at all.

1:10:59But when we look at the way that this breaks down, 89 % of House seats appear to be safe one side or the other. Then I have another 22 seats that I call leaners where I think I can sniff out who's going to win the race, but an upset could happen. And only six of those are Republican. So when I get through the safe and leaners, my current map is a 202 or it's 208 Republican and 203 Democrat. I'm pausing on that Missouri five seat, which I think the Supreme Court is going to reverse back to the GOP. But that's 208 to 203 Republican. And that leaves 24 seats to decide, which I sent over to your producers before our show here.

1:11:38Yeah, we have it up on the screen now. You're bullish on, you got a couple in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, neutral, and the bearish. Bearish would be 232. So we obviously hope, you know, that doesn't happen. But there are the seats up there. Captain Seth Keschel, thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate it. I strongly encourage the audience to check out Seth Keschel's book right there up on the screen right now. You can check it out. You can also give him a follow on X. the book is called the american war on election corruption uh seth thanks a lot for your time we really appreciate it we'd love to have you back well thanks so much dan glad to help out glad to come back on with you so uh best of luck to you yes sir thanks a lot seth cashel folks be sure to check out uh sean coming up at one o 'clock rumble.com slash sean sean ferris's new show kicking butt taking names he's doing fantastic hayley every day at noon rumble.com slash hayley the king of morning podcasting vince colin ace 8 a.m every day all times eastern rumble.com slash Vince.

1:12:37All you got to do is download the Rumble app. It's free. It doesn't cost you anything. Download it on your smart TV. Download it on your iPad. Download it on your phone. Or you can just go to the web too. Rumble.com slash Bongino. Give us a follow while you're there. We really appreciate it. Thanks for tuning in, folks. You know, I appreciate you so much. I will see you back here tomorrow. Hey there, I'm Vince. I'm Haley Carania. I'm Sean Farish. Host of Vince. Host of Scrolling with Haley. Host of Sean Farish Live. You can always catch my show right here. Right here. Right here on the Bongino Report channel.

1:13:05live 8 a.m. Eastern weekday mornings, noon weekdays, 1 p.m. Eastern time. And if you miss it, no worries. The show will always be right here and anywhere you find the podcast. Thanks for watching. And thank you for your attention to this matter.

1:13:28Hey, everyone. Haley Karania here, host of Scrolling with Haley. My show is coming up right here on Rumble at 12 p.m. Eastern time. I cover breaking news, react to viral videos, go down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, and have a whole lot of fun. You are not going to want to miss a second of it live 12 p.m. Eastern time right here on Rumble, rumble.com slash Haley. I'll see you there.

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