Bibi or Tibi? Israel’s Deadlock and the Midterms the Ayatollah Could Decide

0:00David McWilliams: Coming up on the podcast today, it's all politics because A, it is the American midterm elections, an election that will change the way America has governed over the next and the last two years of the Trump administration. And of course, we are going to look at the Israeli election of last week. Where does that leave Israel? Where does it leave the Middle East? Where does it leave Netanyahu? And how is it all going to affect you? That's all coming up in a couple of minutes.

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1:56David McWilliams: Friday morning to kind of kick off events. Yeah. And then we go all the way through until Sunday. If you're coming down, if you fancy it, grab the last of the tickets, kilcanomics.com. We will see you around the marble city. You sound like you're selling bangers here. Last of the bangers. I actually just, I accused myself on Twitter of being the Ben Dunn of economics. Because we had the Halloween sale. The last of the bangers. Anyone for the Sparklers. Final closing down sale. Then you start opening gyms and stuff like that. But I used to remember when we were kids, all must go closing down sale in Dun Laoghaire on the main street.

2:35David McWilliams: And then the fellow would open up again the following Wednesday under a different name. He flogged everything and away we'd go. Such as retail, such as retail, the building blocks, John, of economics. Indeed. The building blocks of economics. Today we are going to talk about, because we're marking the American midterm elections, which I know is significant for you and is close to your heart. It is. We are going to have an all politics plus a bit of economics show. We're going to look at the American election, which is on this evening. So we're going to preview that. We are also going to look back because it has been a phenomenal week of elections.

3:12David McWilliams: We're going to look back at the Israeli election. And we're going to look back at maybe one of the more surprising elections, which was the kind of total victory of the students in Serbia against Vucic's government, which has been in power for 14 years and was, in effect, the descendant of Milosevic's government. Yeah. So we're going to look at that big change in Serbia. And that was coming for a long time, though, that, because those student protests were, we talked about them last year. They were enormous. When I was in Serbia last year, I talked to young Serbs, friends of our family, their parents are mates of ours, and they were out in the street all winter.

3:53David McWilliams: Hundreds of thousands of them, hundreds of thousands of them, and even then, this is the interesting thing, they were saying, yeah, but when it comes to the crunch, rural or what they call central Serbia, so outside of Belgrade, they thought would carry the day again. So Belgrade, always liberal, always for change, always, well, not so much Western looking, but slightly more sophisticated. Central Serbia and down towards Kosovo, very, very, very conservative, very much in the palm of Vucic and they thought, look, you know, we might vote one way, but at the end of the day, the countryside will carry it as it seems to have happened all around the country.

4:33David McWilliams: The students won. So we'll have a quick talk about that, but I think... There was also the other election as well, which was significant, which is Brazil as well. Oh, yes. Bolsonaro has now fled to the United States under the cover of darkness. Brazilian Trumps. I know, but I mean, I'm not too sure if Lula is a great... I mean, Lula's been in Paris. This is his fourth term. This is his fourth term, and he has probably, it's fair to say, not necessarily changed Brazil for the better over those four terms, which is why half of Harold's Cross is Brazilian. If they were doing a good job, they wouldn't be migrating en masse.

5:10And he still is under that cloud of corruption as well. Even though he was acquitted, I believe, but the doubts are still there.

5:18David McWilliams: And he's also 80. He's 80, but I think we could probably do a podcast from Brazil. I think if we can find somebody who understands Brazil, because it is by far and away the largest economy in Latin America. It is the fifth largest advertising economy in the world. Sorry, fifth largest advertising? Yeah, for advertising. Okay. So it is a massive consumer economy. Yeah. And I would love to do a piece, Sao Paulo, I'd love to do a piece on the agriculture. I'd love to do a piece on the dynamics of the economy. I have been told by people who work with Brazilians on a corporate level that they are amazing managers, that the companies are highly innovative.

5:58David McWilliams: And sometimes you notice this when the country's in turmoil. Businesses have to come up with strategies to deal with things. And this is what my mates who live down in Latin America were saying. If you deal with Brazilians, that they are always really, really innovative at getting things done. And actually moving around different roadblocks that the state sets up, particularly a socialist state. but also a Bolsonaro state, which would be more a corrupt sort of Trumpian state. Yeah. You know, so same sort of stuff. It's kind of, one is populism with a sort of a, the flag of Marx on one side, and the other one is populism with some sort of, you know, General Galtieri.

6:34David McWilliams: Do you remember him? Yes. Yeah, I do. I remember the name. Yeah, well, he was the leader of Argentina during the Falklands. He does sound like a lad who played up front, though, for Boca Juniors. Galtieri, great man in the air. Anyway, let us come back. Israel. Israel. We're going to start with Israel. Inconclusive elections in Israel, we're going to go to Israel, we're going to talk to an old friend of mine who is the global economist for a Haritz. Haritz is the liberal paper, and the liberal paper has a part of it called the marker, which is the financial part of it. We'll talk to Daphne in a couple of minutes.

7:11David McWilliams: But what has happened in Israel is the following, John. Liberal Israel has a chance, maybe a once-in-a-generation chance, to get rid of Netanyahu because the numbers are extraordinary. Netanyahu has lost a lot of seats. So liberal Israel, which we're always told exists, has this opportunity to get rid of him. But the cost of getting rid of Netanyahu is getting into bed with the Israeli Arab parties that won 18 % of the entire seats in the Knesset. So now it's kind of been put up to liberal Israel. If you are liberal, if you believe in a certain way, if you want to get rid of Netanyahu, if you want to get rid of Ben Gewehr, if you want to get rid of the constant wars, if you want to, in a way, atone for Gaza and the West Bank, but also find a way forward.

8:14David McWilliams: If you want to go back to the two-state solution that you have for many years said you're part of, well, here's your opportunity to create this rainbow nation idea that you have in your cabinet members of the Israeli Arab or Palestinian. The Israelis refer to them as Israeli Arabs. The Palestinians refer to themselves as Palestinians. They are the descendants of the people who didn't leave in the Nakba. So there were villages that did not leave in the Nakba. There were villages that were not kicked out. There were 700 ,000 Arabs. Was there any particular reason for that? Because, well, history has got all sorts of various reasons.

8:56David McWilliams: It depends on who wrote the history. So the Israeli history that you will read says Arab countries and Arab armies encouraged the Arabs to leave. Right, okay. Because once they had left, the soon-to-be victorious Arab armies of Jordan, of Syria, of Egypt, etc., of Iraq as well, would cleanse the place of Jews and the Arabs would only be in their own way if they were there. So that's the Israeli narrative. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's the Israeli narrative from Ben-Gurion, Golda Meir, and blah, blah, blah. Yeah, yeah. The Arab narrative is that they were kicked out. Yeah. At gunpoint, and they were murdered by Israeli army, by the new Israeli army.

9:47David McWilliams: Yeah, which they were. Which they were. Yeah. But there is also evidence that they were encouraged to leave as well. Right. So the point is, two things can be true at the same time, but the upshot is they lost their homes. Yeah. The upshot is they lost their land. Yes. And the people who stayed, so there would have been Arabs who said, look, let's just see how this goes. You know, let's see who wins. And that would be a lot of people. You know, a lot of people would say, look, if we're not in extreme danger right now, if we live in an Arab area where there are no Jews around us, where we trust this new government to an extent, this state.

10:26There are now 2 million of these people in a country of 8 million.

10:32David McWilliams: So 2 million of the 8 million are Arabs, and they have a vote in the Knesset, and they have a vote in the election. But we're going to see it's not quite the one-man-one vote. That's the thing. Yeah, well, I mean, that is also the roots of the complexity of Israeli politics in general. And it's why in every, I mean, this was a particularly important election, but in every election in Israel over the last few years, it's always been a hung parliament or it's never conclusive. There's never a clean winner. There's never a clean winner. And it's exactly like Ireland. There's never a clean winner here.

11:12David McWilliams: That's true, yeah. So, in fact, you know, we can really understand Israeli politics at one level. Yeah. Because the taliman, the horse trading, the coalitions, the sort of gradually getting over the line. I think in Israel, the magic number is 61. Yeah. Right? So as you said, John, a lot of complexity. A lot of stuff going on. Probably advisable to get a voice from the region, from Israel itself. Daphna Mawar is the global economics editor of The Marker. And The Marker is the financial arm of Haaretz. and Haritz is the liberal paper in Israel. Lots and lots of people would say that if you want to understand the Israeli liberal position, this is the newspaper, you should read online.

11:59David McWilliams: And it is very interesting. I met her years ago over there. She's obviously Israeli, she's Jewish, but of Iraqi background. So interestingly, her mother tongue at home, their grandparents would have been Arabic. And you do get that quite a bit in Israel because 800 ,000 Jews who lived in Arab countries were kicked out of those Arab countries between 1948 and about 1952. Yeah, yeah, we spoke about that in our previous... Yeah, and Abish Lane, you might remember, he was one of them. So we went to Tel Aviv about 10 minutes ago, we just had this conversation, and I started by asking Daphne the question about the framing, the Netanyahu versus the Arabs.

12:38David McWilliams: How did Netanyahu do it? Because again, this is a man who looks as if he's going to be capable, yet again, of plucking a victory from the jaws of defeat. Netanyahu presented himself as the only choice by using the slogan, Bibi or Tibi. Now, Tibi is Ahmed Tibi, one of the most prominent Arab politicians in Israel. Actually, he's been in politics forever, more than Netanyahu. And when he said that, he was very, very right. because a lot of the liberal-leaning Israelis accepted the idea that Arabs should not be in government. I will get to that later if you want to understand why. The only opposition party that actually said, Arabs are citizens here.

13:32They are part of Israeli society. We must accept them. We must let them be partners with us. are the Democratic Party, formerly the Labour Party, headed by Yair Golan, who is also a former general. And they are the only ones. So their voters represent something like 5 % of the electorate in Israel, and they are for including the Arabs. Now, when the others chose parties that don't want to include the Arabs, they actually said, yes, Bibi is right. It's either TB, we accept the Arabs, or we stay with Bibi. And no one wants that. So now it's almost a paradox or catch 22. And it's very unfortunate that we have come to this.

14:21And I would say 75 % of Israelis think that it's okay not to include. I mean, they can run to parliament. They can be parliament members. They can sit on committees. They can, in some of these parties, including Likud, there are Arab representatives. But an Arab party is not acceptable.

14:41David McWilliams: So Daphna, you're sitting in Tel Aviv now. What do you think the chances are of a deal between the Liberals in the coalition and the Israeli Arabs to oust Netanyahu? If Netanyahu was the opposition, I would say no problem. He would do it. Such a good political operator. This is his thing. But with Eisenkot, it's very hard to tell. He looks like this very naive person. I don't believe he is naive. He was the chief of staff in Israel. That's quite a job. Yeah, it's a serious job. Yeah, it's a serious job. I think also he has very good, clever partners. But to overcome what Netanyahu is working very hard now to convince people that the elections were stolen by the Arabs.

15:33Qatar, this is irony at its best, that Qatar has been paying for Arabs to vote against him, while people in his own chamber office have been knowingly well-known and admitted to working for Qatar for money. So it's going to be a very steep hill to pass. Right now, the public is, I think, so tired, but everyone understands that if this goes to a second election and so on, The results won't be better. Tens of thousands of liberal Israelis came to vote. The Arabs, it took a lot of effort to go out and vote for them. And I applaud them. I applaud the Arab parties for saying we want to live normal life without the crime that is inherent in the Arab society, without the killings, and to get our opportunity to be part of it.

16:34what we know is that we need a change and I would say, I would just throw a number I would say it's a 50-50 % chance that they would form a government soon because everyone wants it very much but there are so many obstacles to it so there are not good odds but they are not infinitesimal. There has got to be a solution, we cannot go on like this.

17:00David McWilliams: So there you have it John, I mean the interesting stuff well you know you wonder is this exactly as Netanyahu would like well obviously he would have much preferred to get an overall majority or to cobble together a right which is not the Israeli way as we were saying earlier yeah but to get an extreme right coalition with Ben Gavir and these guys like basically the same coalition yeah but in fairness to the election results the Israelis have voted against that I think he's going from 86 seats to 53. So it's a big fall in one of those proportional representation systems. But to stand back, what we have is, this has put it up to liberal Israel.

17:45David McWilliams: Are they more for coexistence with their neighbors? Or are they more for Zionism? Can they be Zionist? And can they do business with their Arabs? If the answer is no, then the Arabs must feel entitled to make the conclusion along the following lines, which is, democracy is all very well in the sense that Mustafa and Yitschak can go into the polling booth. Yeah. Mustafa and Yitschak can vote. Those votes are equally weighted. But when the votes are counted and the blocs are assembled, Yitschak's vote counts much more than Mustafa's because Mustafa is in effect pretending to play politics because the Arabs are not allowed into the tabernacle of power.

18:44David McWilliams: That's the key. So if the Israelis are happy with this window dressing, which is we have Arabs in the Knesset, look, we have lots of Arabs, and they can be on committees, but the real, as I said, the tabernacle of power they cannot access because they're not Zionists. Well, in effect, it means there is, I wouldn't go as far as say apartheid in Israel because they can vote in the first place, but there's a two-tier electoral system. Right. And it means, therefore, that an Arab vote is not worth the same as a Jewish vote. And also the fact that Bibi is turning the whole Israeli question into a strictly black and white, a binary question.

19:29You're either with us or you're with them. Yeah, and like, not just Israel, but like all Middle Eastern politics, there's nothing black and white about it.

19:38David McWilliams: But equally, you know, the... Arabic movements in the Middle East have also always painted a binary situation. You know, up until very recently, none of them recognized Israel. They thought this was a rogue state. As I've always said, in that disputed area, Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, there are a little over 14 million people. Essentially, there are close to 7 million Jews and close to 7 million Arabs. Yeah, yeah. That's the deal. And they have to eventually figure out a way of living with each other. Because even in the wildest dreams of Ben Gevier, they can't kick out 7 million people. They cleanse it, right?

20:27David McWilliams: They're trying really hard. But they can't do it. They know they can't do it because there is, even if they really wanted to, There is a red line at some stage that the international community will freeze Israel out and will impose boycotts and sanctions, etc. So that's their, in effect, guardrail. On the Arabic side, it is a huge conflict internally as to how best to go. because in the same way years ago in Northern Ireland, if a Catholic politician like Gerry Fitt said, look, let's get on with the idea of working with the British government, they got frozen out by Sinn Féin. And Gerry Fitt, one of the greatest and most courageous men, ends up leaving politics.

21:18David McWilliams: So amongst the Arabs as well, there's always going to be this situation. If you go into bed with the Israelis, then the Hamas side of things will say, well, you're a traitor. so always the centre ground has to negotiate and you know John I was thinking historical stuff this morning when I was yawning and stretching and opening my eyes doing yoga doing my yoga exactly my hot yoga of course it's always hot my hot yoga my sweaty hot alright alright that's enough now I was doing my downward dog my sun salutations it's a different world for me exactly anyway I was getting out of the scratch I was thinking about Charles Stuart Parnell.

21:58David McWilliams: Right, okay. So the position of the Arab parties... Wouldn't be a normal thing to do. No, it's not particularly in a downward dog position, right? But the Arab parties look to me very similar to the Irish Home Rule Party in the 1880s. Oh, right, okay. So the Arab parties now hold the balance of power. And in the 1880s, in the United Kingdom of Britain and Ireland, right, The Irish Home Rule Party under Parnell held the balance of power. And Disraeli and the Unionists, the Conservative and Unionist Party, said we're never going to deal with these Irish yahoos because they are intent on destroying the Union.

22:44David McWilliams: And we're a Unionist Party because Home Rule is the thin end of the wedge. And before you know it, there will be an independent Ireland. So they're exactly like Bibi and Ben Gavir. They're saying no deal with these guys. And they're saying to the Liberal Party, if you get into bed with these guys, you are in effect a traitor. And Gladstone comes along. Gladstone says to the Tories and the Unionists, no, the future has to be accommodating with the Irish. And what you find is a broadly similar situation. So Gladstone was saying this on the basis that he just saw a future of violence and revolution, etc., etc., that the Irish were never, ever going to be satisfied.

23:33David McWilliams: Well, I don't think so. I think Gladstone was coming more from the humanist perspective. I think Glasgow was one of the first British politicians that saw the Irish people as equal. Right. As equal in the sense that these people have a legitimate right to agitate for independence, first for the Land League, then for Home Rule, etc. I think so. I think Glasgow was coming from that great, and there is a great British tradition of reformist Victorians who was informed by religion and informed by liberalism and informed by humanism and would have been against the background of Darwinism. So even though he was religious, Darwin was basically saying we all came from the same place.

24:16Yeah.

24:16David McWilliams: Whereas a lot of colonialism was based on, well, we're a superior race of these guys. So I think there was a lot going on in Gladstone's head, as well as the idea that he needed the Irish votes. So there was an intellectual or, let's say, philosophical impetus. There was also the practical impetus that he needed the votes to win. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Self-interest. Yeah, exactly. in the self-interest of the Liberal Party was that they should do a deal with the Irish. The interesting thing is doing a deal with Ireland for the Liberals coincided with the beginning of the end for the Liberal Party.

24:48David McWilliams: They were the biggest party in the United Kingdom. They were the dominant party in the United Kingdom. And by 1920, they were actually almost gone. They were eclipsed for the Labour Party. So if you take the historical analogy, it's exactly the one that Bibi's playing at. He's basically saying, you do a deal with those Arabs, but you're going to lose. You're going to be punished by the Israeli electorate down the road. But I just think it is fascinating that if the Arab parties have a leader like Parnell, who's strategic, who's clever, who understands that it's home rule, but first you get the land league, you get land reform, you get more people voting, the more land reform you have, etc.

25:31David McWilliams: Then, you know, we could be into a completely... But is there somebody like that? The question is, is Eisencutt the leader of the opposition, a person like that? Only John, time will tell. Hmm, interesting. And the other big election news is your friend, Johnny Boyd. Oh yeah, well I'll tell you what, let's go and talk about that after a bit of this.

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28:03So, Mike, it seems to be election season all over the place. Obviously, we're talking about Israel there, the really important one in the Middle East. We're talking about Serbia and we're talking about Brazil. But, of course, the big kahuna of them all are the midterms, which we've all been looking forward to since the moment he took office, two years ago, a year and a half ago. So it's not looking good.

28:27David McWilliams: It's not looking good. So this podcast goes out on the afternoon of the evening where the Americans will vote. All the polls look like, and the polls have been wrong with Trump all the time. Yeah. Right? There have always been those Trump... Fake news, fake news. But there's kind of secret Trump voters who never say, I'm going to vote for Donald J. Yeah. When the pollsters come for them, but they go into the ballot box and they do that. As if they're legitimate votes. But anyway, that's another thing. So basically, there's two types of elections that Donald J understands. Yeah. The ones he wins and the ones that are stolen.

29:01David McWilliams: Yes. Right? There's no other type of election, right? But... But he's still... But sorry, just before you go there, you know, this is the Trump playbook as we're, you know, so familiar with now. But then, you know, we were just talking about Israel. Bibi started using the same playbook. Oh, yeah, yeah, completely. And Bolsonaro in Brazil. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I just can't wait till Micheál Martin does that here. that'll be the proof of the pudding yeah anyway so the pollsters believe Donald's over and a lot of American commentators are saying this is the end of the Trump era right that he is a lame duck the question is is he a lame but angry duck for the next yeah yeah yeah with a bazooka over his shoulder yeah two big things two big things okay one is the Americans are talking about inflation yeah and inflation has been rising because of the war in Iran.

29:53David McWilliams: And as a result of the war in Iran, Donald Trump is umbilically linked to inflation. Because people can say, look, Straits of Hormuz, increasing the price of energy, increasing the price of electricity, diesel, gas, yada, yada, yada. The other one I think that's not being talked about too much, but I think it's really important, is that the American housing market has been flat. Okay. Housing is the asset that most people have. About 61 % of Americans own their own homes. It's also the one that makes them feel rich if house prices are going up. Yeah. It's also the one that has a wealth effect.

30:32David McWilliams: What they tend to do is they tend to go to the banks and say, look, my house was worth 400 grand. It's now worth 500 grand. Can I loan? Can I get a loan against the back of the house? It's all the stuff that we used to do back in the early 2000s. We were so good at that. We wrote the book on that. I would like a new kitchen, a Harley-Davidson, and a holiday. And I'm going to borrow against the equity in the house and the banks gave money, right? But the Yanks are still at the same carry on. Now, in the last four years, house prices have done nothing. And this year, one-fifth of all listings of houses for sale have reduced their asking price.

31:14David McWilliams: So there's a lot of softness in that market, right? And I think this is a much bigger undermining factor of Trump's idea that we're all getting rich than anything else. And the housing market, you need the housing market to be buoyant for you to have the feel-good factor that you can sell to the punters. But the interest rates and the mortgage rates have shot up to 7 %? 7 % and your average house price now in America is$419 ,000. so it's expensive so lots of young people have been locked out That's an interesting number though can you say the average across America because America is so big No you're right but if I give you another figure they call the K shaped economy so the K being one part of the K going upwards which is the rich doing very well and the other part of the K going downwards which is the poor falling backwards house prices which most people have have flatlined.

32:17David McWilliams: But in the last four years, the S &P 500 index has up 131%. And of course, richer people play the markets. Although Americans play the markets, richer people own stocks more. So richer people get available funds. Yeah, you have the disposable income to do that, right? And most people don't. So what you've seen is the asset of choice for the average person has flatlined, making them feel poorer, or at least not giving them a feel-good factor. The asset of choice of rich people, the S &P 500, it's not even to say, talking about the tech stuff, has gone up by 131%. And as a result of that, the sense is that Trump is basically there for rich people.

33:05And all this has manifested itself

33:09David McWilliams: in even Trump supporters falling away from him. Yeah. So, John, just to give you another figure of the dream, right? The top 1%, so the out of sights in America. Yeah, yeah, yeah. People live behind big walls that we don't see, right? Gated communities. Gated communities. Their wealth was 30%. The 1 % owned 30 % of wealth when Donald got in. Right. Last time around. Like this time, like two years ago. Yeah. They now own 32%. Now, that doesn't seem big, but it's phenomenally big. So they've gained 2 % of the wealth of the entire country on top of the 30 % they already own. Yeah. Right? So all this, of course, is percolating into his popularity.

33:49Do you know, this is a slight aside point, but if I was an American, I would have a massive problem given the fact that, you know, the big issues are the cost of living, the mortgage prices shooting up, all that kind of stuff. And, of course, gas prices and diesel prices are off the charts. And then you're constantly hearing about the millions and hundreds of millions and even billions being spent on ad campaigns. Oh, yeah. For these TV ad campaigns, social ad campaigns, for political campaigns. You know, it's something in the region of$11 billion has been spent throughout the whole campaign across America.

34:34One billion of which is, you know, California alone. You know, if that money was put into either reducing the price of fuel or, you know, anything. I know. Cost of living, you know. But it goes to TV stations. Yes. And podcasts. Yes, yeah. And the metas of this world. Yeah. With their Facebook campaigns. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, it's true.

34:58David McWilliams: It's true. No. So, I mean, basically, Donnie's up against it. But you can't rule out some mad thing happening or those hesitant Trump voters turning up. What Americans seem to be thinking is the people who turn up at the presidential election are different to the people who turn up at the midterms, which is why all the advertising, they're trying to get the base out. And one final thing which is interesting is the culture wars that Trump has done so well out of, of stoking up, have kind of disappeared. Give you an interesting statistic. Two years ago, in February 2024, the top problem in the average American's Gallup poll, top problem was immigration.

35:43David McWilliams: 28 % of Americans said, we are worried about immigration. That has almost disappeared, right? In 2024, it was 28 % worried about immigration, 12 % worried about the economy. Because of deportations being so, if you're against immigration, successful, the borders have been secured. Immigration has disappeared. Now only 11 % of Americans say they're worried about immigration, but a full one-third of Americans are being kept awake at night worrying about the economy. So it's flipped. So the culture war that Trump could kind of lean into and talk about foreigners and people from Latin America and immigrants and that.

36:25David McWilliams: Americans don't care about that anymore. It's the economy, stupid. It's not even the economy. It's the inflation, stupid. Yeah. It's the inflation that has changed the framing. And this is what Trump doesn't like. Cost of living, affordability, all these things that he says are... And he's no control over. He's no control over what he has. But you know who's got more control? The Ayatollah. Yes. The Ayatollah is determining who wins the American election. And that is one for the books. Yeah. Because the Americans, Trump went in in February, saying, we're going to kill all these Ayatollahs. We're going to kill everybody.

37:00Right now, the person who will dictate the price of diesel

37:05David McWilliams: more than anybody else in gas and electricity is the person who can open and shut the Straits of Hormuz. And that man doesn't live in Texas. He lives in Tehran. Yeah. that's where this election will be won and lost. But equally, the Israeli election. That's a big, looming question in the Israeli coalition as they negotiate. Oh, yeah, completely. Iran, etc. And I mean, again, just come back to the Israeli coalition. You know, although in parentheses we call them liberals, the people who might go in to support, are the people who might oust Netanyahu with Arab votes. They're not liberals. They're just the anti-Netanyahu vote.

37:52David McWilliams: And then the question is for Israel, does your dislike of Netanyahu, is it bigger than your distrust of Arabs? Or, okay, wait a second. So the big question for Israelis now is who's worse? Netanyahu and the right wing are a bunch of Israeli Arabs that want to talk peace and do a deal with you. Can I just ask you, just to bring those two big issues together, if Trump loses badly in the midterms and he's weakened, how does that impact Netanyahu's position? Surely that weakens him as well, because Trump was the big brother over there. Well, this is the counterfactual, John, and this is the counterfactual and the counterintuitive nature.

38:50If Donald Trump loses tonight, the only thing he can do if he loses the House and the Senate,

38:59David McWilliams: the only area of competence the president has, real competence, where he doesn't need to genuflect to Capitol Hill, is foreign affairs. Yeah. So that is, you have a baby with his toys thrown out of the pram. It might be a boon for Netanyahu because that Trump is maybe more dangerous. Yeah, yeah. Then it's a Trump. E.B. and the baby. Go on. We're talking Thursday. I can't beat that. By the way, if you want to get this podcast early and with no ads, Join us on Patreon. That's patreon.com forward slash David McWilliams. Join the gang.

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