Professor Jiang: Three Predictions On the Collapse of the World Order

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32:27Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life and I think it could change yours too. So I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think. All you have to do is search coach.stand.store now to get started. So this is a summary of the global supply chain network. And we can see how it involves the entire world. You are not able to build semiconductors unless you have a globalized economy. So there's been a lot of talk about China controlling the elements, right? So China manufactures about 70 % of the world's silicon and rare earths. China controls about 70 % of rare earths.

33:10What people don't appreciate is it works both ways okay so china does export a lot of silicon and rare herbs but it also needs to import a lot of helium in order to sustain its semiconductor manufacturing process the reason why is helium cools the semiconductors in a way um to allow it for to manufacture okay so helium is a cooling agent another thing that people don't appreciate is people think that China has a monopoly on rare earths, but America in a place called Spruce Pine, North Carolina, this area has a monopoly on high-quality quartz. It controls about 90 % of the world's high-quality quartz, which you need in the silicon manufacturing process as well.

34:05So if these nations start to stop trading with each other, technology would cease to progress. Now, something to keep in mind is it's not just semiconductors that are dependent on the global supply chain. Food is also very dependent on the global supply chain. So what we're seeing is a stark contrast between the North and the South. So the north produces most of the world's fertilizer. And the south, primarily Africa, the Middle East, and South America, they import a lot of the fertilizer. This map shows it much more clearly. So ammonia is a very important component of fertilizer. And as you can see, most of the ammonia production plants are actually in the north of the world.

34:56Canada, United States, Europe, China, Russia. So the South, the global South, is dependent on the North for food. In a time of war, when global supply chains break down, the North might lose access to fancy wireless smartphones. The South will face famine, okay? Why is this important? Because the world is rife with conflict. The main issue that we will face next 20 years is not oil, it's actually water. All right? So this map that we're seeing right now is actually telling us where the next major geopolitical flashpoints are. So basically, if you see red on the map, it means this place has water scarcity issues.

35:52and the red issues tell us exactly where wars will erupt. So even in the United States, if you look at the western part of the United States, they do have water scarcity issues. And actually, if you go to the western United States, Colorado, California, Arizona, these places, they're fighting over the Colorado River because the Colorado River is what supplies most of their water. You go to the Middle East and you know that the Middle East, it's almost like a dynamite ready to explode. And what this war will do is aggravate all the tensions in the Middle East. India itself is facing water shortages, which brings it into conflict with China.

36:39So this one map, if you can just see it, it basically tells you where the next geopolitical flashpoints will be. It means a place that is most likely to go to war or have conflict or political violence over the next 20 years. But also here is Northeast Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is here. So that's another major flashpoint. So this is what, over the next 20 years, where war is most likely to break out. But what's important to appreciate is once war breaks out, There are third order effects causing conflict to spread around the world. This is a really important map for us to appreciate as well.

37:27This map tells us fertility rates around the world. As you can see, Africa has the world's highest fertility rate, followed by the Middle East. So they're having the most children per couples. That's right. Why is this a problem? Because if you go back to the previous map, this area is also where there is the most geopolitical tension. And so if there are more and more children, young people being born here, they have no choice but to migrate. And where would they migrate? Probably to Europe. And you're like, well, okay. Well, then what Europe should do is turtle up. Europe should build walls and prevent these migrants from reaching Europe.

38:14But Europe has its own problem, which is the aging crisis. So look at what's happening where the fastest aging populations are, in fact, in the most developed nations, including Japan, Europe, and North America. So if you have an aging population, you need to provide cheap health care, nursing. What does that mean? it means you have to let in more immigrants in order to surface the aging population. And what will happen then is domestic conflict, where you have more migration into Western societies, which brings them into conflict with the native populations. And therefore, it is possible you have civil war, as well as political violence, and even the possibility of revolution.

39:11Okay? So these maps collectively paint a very grim picture of the world that we're living in. On this page here about immigration causing civil war, political violence, revolution, won't it just be the case, as we're seeing, that these Western societies will increasingly elect right-wing political parties, which is kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing, you know, parties in the UK like Reform Surge. I think there was news yesterday in Germany of the political party there. We're seeing the same in the United States as well. That's a fantastic point. That's exactly what we're seeing. We're seeing the AFD surge in Germany.

39:52You know, MAGA being very dominant in the United States. We're seeing Vox in Spain. So in theory, what's going to happen is these countries become much more right-wing and then they block out immigration because that is your main policy platform. And that should stop the civil war. So the problem is, what do you do about your aging population? Robots. Exactly, right? That's what you would think. But what we're seeing is a breakdown in global supply chains. Robots depend on copper, right? Which you get from Chile, Peru, China, Australia. These are pretty far away places from Europe and United States, right?

40:37You also need lithium, which you get from the lithium triangle. Again, pretty far away. You also need silicon, which is mainly manufactured in China. You need rare earths, which again is really manufactured in China. So you have this huge issue where in theory you could use robots. But when global supply chain breaks down, you have to figure out the cheapest way to resolve the labor issue. And the cheapest solution is immigration. People, I have to say this, but people are much cheaper and much more expandable than robots.

41:18So, I know this is a bit scary. I know this is really depressing. But, what if the United States were able to win this war in Iran and conduct regime change? then our problems are solved, right? Now Iran is under control of the United States and we're back to globalization where oil is able to flow to South Asia, to East Asia and then they manufacture goods and then recycle their profits into the economy. And with all this money, AI is able to innovate to a point where we achieve AGI. And then we solve all the world's problems, okay? So what happens next with this whole Iran situation? So unfortunately, it has now developed its own momentum, all right?

42:24So let me explain what is most likely to happen. Okay, so you have Iran. And you are now controlling the Shur Hormuz, right? You have the Houthis, and they control the Baal and Mandad Strait. You have Hezbollah, which can threaten the Suez Canal. You have the Shia militias that can also threaten the Mediterranean. From a game theory perspective, what Iran should do next is take the initiative and disrupt all global trade. And the reason why is the U.S. empire is based on a petrodollar. It's based on global trade. When you disrupt global trade at the same time, there's no way for the United States to respond.

43:15How could they disrupt global trade? What they can do is start to attack randomly. Okay? So what they can do is attack Saudi Arabia. Iraq can attack Israel Iran can attack the Shredder Hormuz Hezbollah can attack the Suez Canal And why you do that is You're creating uncertainty and chaos In the global trade system Why is that important? Because the global trade system Is built on confidence And that's what drives insurance So if you're an insurance company And you're like, oh my god these actors are completely out of control, the United States has lost control over the situation, you can no longer insure global shipping.

44:06If you can't insure global shipping, global shipping ceases to work. So this is the madman theory, and this is Iran's best play moving forward. And the reason why is the United States does not have the military capacity to respond to a coordinated random strike across the Middle East. So is this your prediction? Is this what happens next? I don't want to make this prediction just because there are lots of factors I do not know. So first of all, I don't know politically what the situation is in Iran. Certainly the IRGC would want to do this, but there are political factions within Iran who would think this is too provocative.

44:51And it's possible the entire world would unite against Iran if Iran were to do this. So what is your prediction in terms of Iran and what happens next? My prediction is this will only escalate. How it will escalate, I don't know, okay? But the trump card, to use a pun, for Iran is to start to disrupt global trade. But the United States has a response. And this response is to attack Iran's critical civil infrastructure, which includes desalination plants and power plants. And this would be worse than using a nuclear weapon on Iran. Because without power plants, the people in Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, they face starvation because a lot of this food is refrigerated.

45:45this is how the war becomes almost civilization destroying. If Iran were to completely disrupt global trade, and if the United States were to destroy the power plants of Iran. Obviously, that would be horrific and sort of inconceivably horrifying for the people that live in Iran, the innocent people that are caught in the middle of this. You don't think that the US would actually do that, though, right? I think the United States will be forced to do it. You think they'll be forced to do it? Yes, according to game theory, they will be forced to behave like this because we need to appreciate this formula where the more power you have, less imagination, empathy you have.

46:27And so the idea is you don't think killing millions of Iranians is a too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. the hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle don't you create a huge migration crisis where people start fleeing from iran up into europe because they are starving exactly right not just iran but africa as well because they've lost access to cheap energy and fertilizer. So you have all this migration into Europe, which would overwhelm the European social fabric, which would overwhelm the European state.

47:19But unfortunately, this has been happening at a much slower pace ever since 2014, when for whatever reason, the United States chose to destroy Libya and caused a civil war in Syria, which caused millions to migrate into Europe. And as you remember, the Europeans in the generosity accepted all these migrants, which is leading, which has led to tremendous social friction and political tension in Europe today. So your prediction here, if we conclude then, is that the US won't win this quote-unquote war in the Middle East because they can't defeat Iran and its proxies. But also your conclusion is that this is going to continue to escalate in the Middle East.

48:01Yes. And already what we're seeing are other actors being drawn into the war. So the most recent news is South Korea has authorized a naval contingent to go and try to secure the Strait of Hormuz. What would you do if you were Donald Trump? I mean, what would I do if I were Donald Trump? I would push all in. I would start attacking power plants in Iran because if I take any half measures, I would just look weak and I'm only going to create more problems. I would only incentivize Iran and its allies to be more provocative, to be more aggressive. So if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this situation, I would just push all in.

48:50But you'd end up killing millions of Iranians, theoretically. Well, I start this war, right? then i have to win this war because i can't lose this war i refuse to lose this war i mean again i understand the concerns okay but if you want to understand how these leaders think this formula gives you the best window into into the psychology which is because of so much power they lose the capacity to imagine different possibilities and have empathy for the suffering of the people in the world. Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't they just, couldn't Donald Trump just say, do a big press conference where he says, we won this war in Iran, we've destroyed their military, their naval bases, it's done, and Iran will no longer have a nuclear weapon?

49:37The entire petrodollar system is premised on two things. The US dollar as the world reserve currency and the aura of inevitability and invincibility of the US military. If they look like they are beatable, then the US, as its image, is sufficiently tarnished. Right. What are your predictions? I've been dying to know. So I brought to you three predictions. And because we are so close to the anniversary of 9-11 in New York City, I structured these predictions around the anniversary. And so these will be three fun but horrifying predictions. Okay. All right. So my prediction number one is there will be a siege of New York City.

50:27All right. So let me explain my logic. I was here last time and I said that Donald Trump will get a third term. And he's been joking about it. He's been talking a lot about it. He's been social truthing about it. And so let's imagine what happens if Trump gets a third term. Well, you would have a lot of pissed off people, especially in the major cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and New York City. We should probably just pause there because there is a constitutional ban on serving three terms, the primary barrier being the 22nd Amendment, which was ratified in 1951 by Franklin Indy Roosevelt, who won four elections.

51:15It establishes a strict term limit for the presidency and the text in this 22nd Amendment explicitly says no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. So how could that happen? Well, let's just say there is a national emergency and the president is forced to suspend the constitution, then he could theoretically have his third term. It's also possible that in 2028 he decides to run as the vice president and have his son Don Jr. run at the top of the ticket. And then once the election is over then Don Jr. would resign and then Donald Trump would become the president.

52:04And there's nothing in the Constitution that prevents him from doing that. So there are two possibilities. There isn't anything in the Constitution that allows the U.S. president to suspend the Constitution in a time of a national emergency. It's president. So, for example, during the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was able to suspend habeas corpus, which is a constitutional right in the U.S. Constitution. And during World War II, Franklin Delano Roosevelt also did many unconstitutional things. For example, interning the Japanese population in caps. There's nothing that some court could do against this.

52:44Because a lot of U.S. politics is convention. It's agreed upon norms. But if a U.S. president is like, well, screw these conventions. There's nothing anyone else can do about it. All right. So let's imagine, okay, just for the sake of this argument, Trump gets a third term. What will happen is these cities that are democratic will be in open revolt, meaning they will refuse to pay taxes to the federal government, but they will also not welcome ICE federal agents into their cities, which creates conflict between local law enforcement and federal law enforcement. And historically, if that were to happen, then the president, U.S.

53:30president, usually thinks that he has a responsibility to quash this insurrection. right and so this would over time lead to the siege of new york city where maybe federal forces along with possibly militias from other states possibly red states that favor trump they would try to besiege new york city by cutting off the food supply and water supply to new york city and this would be a conflict that could go on for years and years and what year would that take place 2028 it could happen right after um trump secures his third term do you think trump is going to have a third term um do you want to bet yeah i think he'll get a third term how much you want to bet let's take a friendly bet and say a hundred dollars do you know what i've never said this before but i actually did have a bet with two random guys on facebook i don't use facebook but i bet with two random guys on facebook a couple of years ago they told me that after donald trump had lost the election to Joe Biden, they told me that he was going to stay in power.

54:35And so I said, there's no way he stays in power. And they said, no, he will. So then, and then they offered me a bet. They said, a thousand pounds each. We bet you he's going to stay in power. They were like QAnon people. And I said, fine. And they actually did pay me when he came out of power. They transferred me a thousand dollars each. I gave it to charity. But so I'm more than happy to make another bet if you want to make a bet. Yeah, let's do it. A hundred dollars, a hundred US dollars. A hundred US dollars. And you're betting that Trump gets a third term. Yes, I think he'll be in power after 2028.

55:00Is that fair? Like, he'll be in power after 2028. When's the election? Well, the election should be November 4th, 2028. But I didn't say he would win the election. I just said he would get a third term. So you're saying that he will refuse to leave office or find another way to remain president beyond the date of the inauguration? Yes, I'm saying that on January 21, 2029, Trump will still be in the White House. Okay, I'll take that back. Okay. If everyone's clear. And please do remind me to cash in, lads. $100. Okay. $100 may not be worth anything at that time, but that's$100, okay? Okay. All right.

55:39So, again, we are just assuming, for the sake of argument, that Trump is in office in his third term. There will be political violence across the United States, primarily in New York City. And if the federal authority is being challenged by a city or local state authority, then the president will take this very seriously and send in forces to quash this insurrection. Maybe other cities will be much more compliant, but New York City has a very charismatic mayor in Zohan Madani. And New Yorkers, you don't want to mess with New Yorkers. When they get angry, they get really, really angry. So this, I think, is very likely if Trump gets a third term, to be a siege in New York City.

56:26He would almost be 83 years old. I mean, we say that, but like the amount of energy he has, right? The fact of the matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers every day. He gives a press conference almost every day. He's always on social media tweeting out something stupid. For example, he's tweeted out that all of North America is now the USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that yet. And he's talking about taking over Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So I don't know where he gets his energy, but he seems really energetic. I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed Obama. Michelle Obama. Okay, but if you just look at the picture of Obama in 2008, He was a really handsome, really young, very vibrant man in 2008.

57:18You fast forward eight years and he came out just decrepit. He had aged at least 20 years in his office. Donald Trump, for whatever reason, has not aged that much. Hairdying fake term? he so there's something really weird about Donald Trump which is a lot of US journalists in Washington DC have his direct personal cell phone number and they can call him and they will talk for an hour like the guy is the president of the United States and if you are just an average Washington journalist you can call him and talk to him for an hour a day There are journalists who go to the White House to interview him and says, like, we try to get, we try to, like, leave, like, an hour ago.

58:11But he made us stay and talked to him some more. He wanted us to leave. So I don't know where he gets his energy from. But he's extremely energetic. And he loves that attention. Okay. What's prediction number two? So, again, we are approaching the anniversary of 9-11. and there are a lot of people who fear there will be another 9-11 attack on the United States just because you have a lot of actors that are very angry at the United States and who may want to seek vengeance against the American people. In that case, if there is another 9-11 attack on the United States, I believe it will be an attack on the U.S.

58:58financial infrastructure. Okay, so let me explain my reasoning. What was 9-11? 9-11 was an act committed by terrorists in order to traumatize the population into self-destructive violence. Is that a fair statement? I don't really know. Was that the... So let's parse the statement. 9-11 was an attempt to traumatize the American population into self-destructive violence. What I mean by that is you're taking the symbols of American power, which are like these airplanes, as well as the Twin Towers. These are symbols of American power. And the Pentagon. And the Pentagon and the White House. And you're destroying them.

59:44and for the longest time, American people believed that these are symbols of American invincibility, our planes, our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And to see them destroyed like that would traumatize the population. In fact, it did traumatize many, many people. And the idea is you traumatized them into a self-destructive violence, which means they want vengeance. And so what do they do? They went to the Middle East fought against the Taliban in Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq. Then this war spread to Syria, Libya. And we can say that these 20 years of these forever wars in the Middle East have been very destructive for the United States.

1:00:27It's caused a huge fiscal deficit. It's caused the American military to lose all that prestige. It's caused a lot of corruption in Washington, D.C. It's been very bad for the United States. All right. So if you're the terrorist and you look at 9-11, you're like, okay, well, I want to do the same thing, which is like, I want to traumatize people into self-destructive violence. How can I do so? Well, I need to traumatize them, right? Me flying planes into the new Twin Towers doesn't do that because people are now used to, they've been normalized into this sort of violence. So how can I induce trauma into people?

1:01:10Well, there are different possibilities you can use, right? So let's do a thought experiment. What would happen if one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee? Well, you scan your iPhone and it doesn't read. And you're like, well, there might be a problem with the bank. You call the bank, you can't get food to the bank. And like after hours and hours of frantic anxiety, you finally recognize that there was an attack on critical US financial data servers. And so all the money in your bank account has been wiped out. And they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it.

1:01:54What do you feel? I would say you would feel more than concerned. I would say you would feel a lot of anger and anxiety and frustration. That must be hard to do. Surely taking out the financial infrastructure for everybody for a long enough period of time where they start to feel real-world consequences. Would you say 9-11 was hard to do? Yeah. I would say so as well. I can possibly imagine them doing this. So there is certain creativity to these people. And I would not rule that out. But I'm just saying if another 9-11 happens, it is possible what we'll see is the destruction of the US financial infrastructure, which would drive millions of people into a mad frenzy.

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1:03:57You said to me at the top of the conversation, you're having difficulty getting back into the United States recently. What do you mean by that? So I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I would say I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now. So the story is that the Iran war happened in March and it made me famous. And I was really afraid that this fame would annoy and frustrate a lot of Americans. And so I decided that I should not actually go to the United States at this point because it's most likely that I come here. I could be held in detention by customs.

1:04:40I could be deported. And so that time period was extremely scary for me And I refused all offers to come to the United States There were quite a few people who wanted me to fly to the United States To be interviewed So then what happens over the summer The war thought started to die down I thought, okay, let me fly to Canada Where my family is And I'm in Toronto And I'm going to try to enter the United States By ear from Toronto So on August 5th, I went to the Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like seven o 'clock in the morning because I had an early flight to Los Angeles. I told them that I was going to go on the Theo Vaughn show for, and I'll be in the United States for two weeks, which was all true.

1:05:27So when I'm at customs, the immigration officer asked me a lot of questions, but I handle all these questions pretty smoothly. Then he asked me, do you have a travel letter for your son? because my son, Chris, who's eight years old, he's traveling with me. And I'm like, what is a travel letter? And again, this is like seven o 'clock in the morning. So my brain's not working. He's like, call your wife. Like, okay. So I try to call my wife. My wife is in the shower. And so then the immigration officer says, okay, you have to go into secondary to be interrogated to make sure that your son, Chris, is traveling with you willingly.

1:06:03So we go into secondary and it's like seven o 'clock in the morning and my flight's at 8.30. and we're waiting for like an hour. And I'm freaking out because it seems like we'll miss our flight. And during this hour, I'm texting my wife and she's giving me the birth certificate. She's giving me all the materials I need to prove that Chris is my son. And then at the very last minute, we get called and in a minute, I'm able to resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm going to go on the Theo Vaughn show and I'll be there for two weeks. so i'm in the united states and i get caught up from other podcasts to do interviews and i travel around the united states and i forget about the two-week promise to the immigration authorities because i'm not sure if you know the law but i'm canada i'm a canadian citizen and therefore i don't need a visa to come to the united states you know if you say i'm coming for two weeks but you stay a month, it's usually not an issue.

1:07:02I go back to Toronto and I come back to do this podcast. And so yesterday I am put in, yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I have my travel letter. I have my son's birth certificate and I go to immigration officer and they still put me in a secondary. But basically I think what happened was I said certain things during my podcast interviews that piss off some really powerful people in the United States. A lot of things that I said were related to something called the Clean Brick Memo, which you have. The Clean Brick Memo was published in 1996, and it laid out a plan for how Israel can become the dominant hegemon in the Middle East.

1:07:49It was written by a study group, and part of the study group, there were two individuals. They were Richard Perle and Nicholas Fife. These two would, in the George W. Bush administration, go work in the Pentagon. And these two, along with Paul Wolfowitz, were the chief architects of Iraq War. So I named these people and I explained how this war in Iran follows from the clean brick memo. And their goal is to establish Israel as the regional hegemon. And I think this is what got me into a lot of trouble. Why do you think that got you into a lot of trouble? Because I'm a Canadian. When I come into the country, they usually don't bother me.

1:08:32And so for them to question me, I think it was because some top officials basically requested that I be put in secondary every time I come to the United States. And I also believe this because I have a friend, Max Blumenthal, who is a very good U.S. journalist and he was in Iran covering Khamenei's funeral. In response, a social media influencer named Laura Loomer demanded his arrest. And so when Max Blumenthal came into the country, and he is a U.S. citizen, by the way, his devices were confiscated. And now Max Blumenthal is suing the Department of Homeland Security for illegally confiscating his devices.

1:09:24And so I think that we live in a time when, unfortunately, the empire is in decline. And because of hubris and arrogance, they are trying to silence their critics rather than accept our constructive criticisms. Okay. So it's a theory. Absolutely. They never told me why I was put in secondary, but he hinted at me that every time I come to the United States, I will be put into secondary to make sure that I'm coming to the United States for legitimate reasons. Also, he hinted at me that it is possible that once my I-94 expires in six months, they will not renew it, meaning they will not allow me in the country anymore.

1:10:06I hope I come back to the United States. I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world. But at the same time, I do appreciate that we are living in very interesting times. Prediction three. Okay. My third prediction is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina. Oh, wow. I wasn't expecting that. Yep. So I wanted three new predictions that were fun and interesting for us to discuss. So why I make this prediction is that Argentina is working very closely with the United States and Israel at this moment.

1:10:52You are a British citizen, so you will appreciate that Argentina has recently demanded the return of the Falklands. and Donald Trump has voiced support to Argentina. So I'm asking myself, why are they so concerned about the Falklands? And not only that, but if you've been following the news, Harvard Malay has become very close with Benjamin Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have very strong relations. In fact, Argentina is welcoming Israeli investment and immigration into Argentina. And apparently, if you are an Israeli citizen and you go into Argentina, again, you can fact check this, but from what I understand, you have immediate access to the health care as well as pension.

1:11:48Which makes actually no sense because they're not Argentina citizens. So it seems very much that Argentina is working very close with Israel and the United States. And the reason why I think that Israel and Argentina are working very close together is right now there's almost a civil war in Israel. When Mazzatic Jews who believe this war in the Middle East will usher in the end times and the coming of Messiah. And secular Jews who are like these people are insane. And so the only way to resolve this conflict is by exporting secular Jews elsewhere. And it seems to me, Argentina is a very good place to export them.

1:12:32But then you're like, okay, how do you get the people of Argentina to accept this massive immigration into Argentina from Israel? Because Israel is not very popular in Argentina. I think the best way is to make Lionel Messi the president of Argentina. And his popularity will be enough to let all these Israelis into the country. Him as well as the reclaiming of the Falkland Islands, right? These two things, you know, the god of Argentina becomes president and Argentina reclaims the Falklands from the British. And I apologize to you as a British citizen. It's okay. I like Messi. you also mentioned to me that you think japan is going to go to war with china or china's going to go to war with japan yes what makes you think that well because every chinese believes this yes so it's the funniest thing but like for the longest time people believe that china will eventually invade taiwan this is what's very commonly accepted in the west but if you actually go to China no Chinese actually believes this and no Taiwanese actually believes this because this is not the way that China actually goes about its foreign policy it does not go and invade other countries or in its most recent history it has not been that aggressive the last war that China fought was in Vietnam this was in the mid early 80s so it's a long time but if you go to China today Okay, everyone believes that China and Japan will go to war.

1:14:15And to appreciate this, you have to understand the geography of Southeast Asia. Should you turn up, throw something up on the screen? Yeah, okay. So what I want to do is use geography to explain why conflict between China and Japan is inevitable at this point. So you have Japan, and you have China. So the first thing to appreciate is that these are two very different countries. China is a land power that is self-sufficient. Japan is a sea power that is dependent on resources from abroad. So historically, China was probably an agricultural nation. Japan, in order to survive, engaged in piracy. So the Japanese have always been pretty militaristic.

1:15:11They had a cyber culture for the longest time. They were always at war with each other. And the Japanese people are extremely resilient and cohesive because the geography of Japan is very unstable. There's lots of earthquakes. There's lots of tsunamis. So they have to work together as a people in order to survive. This is important because this war in Iran is affecting both China and Japan. China will probably have to de-industrialize. But if Japan doesn't do anything, then it's possible in the next 50 years, Japan cease to exist. Because not only is Japan dependent on energy and imports and resources from overseas, but it has an aging population.

1:15:56It has the most elderly population in the world. So in a time of war, when the United States is longer able to give you protection, Japan needs to create resource colonies. And historically, Southeast Asia, right here, has been the main resource colony of Japan. If it does not have Southeast Asia, the United States now becomes the main benefactor of Japan. And Japan doesn't want to be in that position because that's what happened in World War II when Japan got most of its energy from the United States. And when the United States embargoed Japan, Japan was forced to declare war on the United States.

1:16:38So the United States can provide Japan with all its energy needs, but that would make Japan completely subservient. So Japan wants to basically access the resources of Southeast Asia. There's a problem, though, and that problem is called Taiwan. Taiwan is right in the middle of the South China Sea. And if China and Taiwan were to reunify, what China could do now is embargo Japan. I'm not saying China will do so, but I'm saying that China has the option of doing so. And Japan sees that as a threat to its existence. In fact, a few months ago - Embargo. What does embargo mean? Embargo means you blockade, okay?

1:17:25But if they did this, wouldn't the whole hell would break loose? You know, Japan are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's going to get messy. It's going to impact trade. So I'm not saying that China would embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the option of doing so. But you are saying that China is going to attack Japan. No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a conflict between these two nations. Okay, I thought you said it was inevitable. Yes. So let me explain how this would draw, how this would play out, okay? So Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue, as vital to its national security interests. And that's exactly what Prime Minister Takeuchi said a few months ago.

1:18:00And when she made that statement, China overreacted. So before you had millions of tourists from China visiting Japan a year. Now most of them are not allowed to go to Japan. and it's very likely that China and Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan. Now, the thing to remember is it does not benefit any nation here to go to war because as you point out, all chaos would break out. What you need to do is create leverage to negotiate better terms, okay? So what Japan is doing is saying, okay, look, we can't take on China directly because China is too powerful. But what we can do is build alliances to possibly challenge and if we have to, embargo China, right?

1:18:56So what Japan is doing is build alliance with the Philippines and Australia and India. And together, these four nations, even throughout the United States, they could, in theory, choose to embargo China. What Japan needs is access to Southeast Asia, because that will be the main source of its resources going into the future. So that is a scenario being played out. Now, China does not want to come into a conflict with Japan. Why? Because China is seen as the big bad dragon in this area. And if China is seen as too provocative, that would basically incentivize all of Southeast Asia to gang up on China.

1:19:47So you can see alliance between India, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China. Okay? So the way to resolve this issue is to use a proxy in order to threaten Japan, in order to develop more leverage over Japan in negotiations. And that proxy, of course, is North Korea. so north korea has the potential to shell south korea because most of the population of south korea lives within 20 minutes of north korea and so in theory north korea could flatten seoul in just a day okay most of north korean artillery is actually by the border what north korea could also do is lobby missiles into the sea of japan and rattle the japanese okay so this is the dynamic being played out where japan for its proxies primarily the philippines is challenging chinese naval dominance in the sub-china sea and china will use north korea as a proxy to threaten south Korea and Japan.

1:21:04Over time, as the United States retreats from the Asia-Pacific, this conflict between China and Japan will get worse and worse. And the main reason why is, it is in the strategic best interest of the United States to foment as much tension between China and Japan as possible. But it could compromise Taiwan, no? Who cares? the u.s care about taiwan no it doesn't i thought that's who we get all of our semiconductors from but what does trump want to do he wants taiwanese to move their semiconductor industry to the united states and that's already happening where tsmc the main semiconductor company in taiwan it's open a I believe it's$20 billion new factory in Arizona.

1:21:58So if there's a conflict between China and Japan, the tension becomes worse and worse. The Taiwanese semiconductor industry would be forced to relocate to the United States, which would be in the best interest of the Americans. You also think that Russia are going to invade the Baltics. Yeah. Okay, so now we'll shift focus and go into Europe. All right? Okay, but is this pretty clear? Yes, it is clear. Okay, right now you have NATO or Europe supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Okay, and most of this war is actually happening in Eastern Ukraine, and Russia seems to be winning a lot of territory in eastern Ukraine.

1:22:53But everybody's saying that Ukraine are fighting back really, really well. The reason why is what Ukraine has chosen to do in these past few months, which has changed the context of the war, is Ukraine is using drones to attack Russia's energy infrastructure. And just hitting Russia in general is making the people of Russia change their perception. Exactly, right? So before this conflict was contained to eastern Ukraine, it didn't affect the people of Russia. In fact, it really was helping the economy of Russia because Russia could still export its oil around the world. Now, what Ukraine is doing is using drones to attack the war refineries of Russia, which is causing economic pain on the Russian people.

1:23:39And this is making Putin increasingly unpopular. So the contour of the war has changed. So if you're Russia and you're looking at this, you think your enemy is not Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO Europe. Why? Because Ukraine, the drones are being manufactured in Germany and the UK and other places as well. So in theory, Ukraine could fight this war to infinity because its manufacturing hub is in Europe. Europe is also providing Ukraine with infinite financing as well as intelligence. So if you're Russia, you're like, wait a minute here. Over time, we can't possibly win this war of attrition because we're fighting Europe.

1:24:29And Europe's manufacturing capacity is well protected behind the NATO alliance. So what I need to do is provoke NATO and Europe into coming into Ukraine, basically force them out of their shell. And so what's been happening is Germany and Russia have been in conflict these past few months. In early August, there was a drone attack on Leipzig Airport. Okay, Leipzig Airport. and the Germans blame the Russians and in response the Germans closed down the Russian consulate in bond as well as remove certain Russians from Germany Russia is retaliating by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg and the Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov have said we are in a similar situation to 1941 What happened in 1941?

1:25:34The Germans invaded Russia. Okay? So in other words, Russia recognizes that if they just leave Europe alone and just fight this war in Ukraine, they will lose in the end. So they must force and provoke Europe into mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And one way to do that is by hitting critical manufacturing infrastructure within Europe. Do you think Russia's next move is to attack within NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.? It has no choice. It has to do this. Can't just do a deal with Trump? Like, you know, they're trying to do a deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared Kushner's apparently trying to get a deal done between Ukraine and Russia.

1:26:19So, in the United States, do you want peace between Europe and Russia? Or do you want war between Europe and Russia? Well, from a game theory perspective, you're bit off with war. Why? Because if there's war, Russia can't sell its energy overseas. The United States has monopoly over energy now, right? This causes global instability, though. If there's a war here, then it's going to impact the US in a big way. Well, then why did the United States invade Iran, right? Because they thought it would be an overnight Venezuela situation where you decapitate the leadership. Everyone rises up. you have a favorable leader in the country that is subservient to you great exactly and this is exactly how the empire thinks right we already use this formula right yeah now if we apply this formula to europe situation then the thinking is well putin is a paper tiger he is very unpopular at home if we just force this war for another two months if we continue to attack the energy infrastructure of Russia, and eventually people will rise up and overthrow Putin.

1:27:26Right? The same logic. So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to win, or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what they're doing? Well, Trump personally doesn't care, right? Because the more war there is, the more the Europeans are forced to rely on American energy. Okay. So if you're Putin, what you need to do is force the Europeans into war in Ukraine. Why? Because there's really only one path to victory in this scenario. The path to victory is to cause instability and violence in Europe. The idea is if you force Europe to mass mobilize, the people would rather overfill the government than agree to take up arms against Russia.

1:28:23That's a theory. But Russia has exactly one path to victory, and that is to cause as much instability and violence as possible within Europe. The best way to do that is by forcing the Europeans to mass mobilize the population. But for that to happen, what Russia needs to do first is declare total war. What total war means is the mass mobilization of your society. So what's important for us to appreciate is, so far, Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. It is a special military operation, which means that Russia is relying on volunteers to fight this war. In a time of total war, Russia could mobilize its adult population.

1:29:10And we estimate there are at least 3 million reservists in Russia ready to be called up to arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would force mass mobilization in Europe. And this is how the war will most likely turn out. I mean, I guess the other thing that's, I mean, listen, Professor, there's a, sounds like there's a lot of conflict on the way. There's an acceleration underway. What would have to be true for us to sit here in 2036 and for there not to have been a conflict between China and Japan, for the Iran situation to have cooled off, the Ukraine war is either, you know, where it is now or it's regressed?

1:29:59The Clean Book Memo. that's changed history. So what are you saying specifically? What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place? Okay, in the year 1995, this was published in 1996, and Yahoo came out of power in Israel in 1996. In 1995, we lived in a world of neoliberalism, something called the Washington Consensus. And the idea is we have developed a new model of history. If people just traded with each other and consumers just bought goods, we would have peace forever. This is what we call neoliberalism, the Washington census. And Bill Clinton was the main proponent of this idea.

1:30:49And in order to achieve this vision for global peace, what he did was promote the Oslo peace process. which sought to create a two-state solution and bring peace in the Middle East. The two-state solution is the Palestinians and Israelis agreed to live side by side. And at that time, the main thinking was that once peace happened in the Middle East, once a two-state solution was created, then they would start to trade with each other. Israel and Palestine We brought into the GCC And they would be part of the global supply chain And once prosperity comes to Israel And Palestine They would have no need To ever hate each other again This is called the also peace process Okay And again at that time This was just how policymakers in Washington Understood the world Right It worked in China It worked in Japan And it worked in Germany.

1:31:50Japan and Germany were these really militant nation states. But then we allowed them to trade. We allowed their consumers to have air conditioning, SUVs. And now they're just really peaceful people. So why can't we do the same thing in Israel and Palestine? So what is the clean break theory? In a sentence. The clean break theory is this. Netanyahu came into power. And basically his argument is, We can never ever trust the Arabs not to hate us. We are Israelis. We have been promised this land by God. And the Arabs see us as enemies and whatever we do, they will always hate us. So screw peace, screw compromise, let us become the regional hegemon because that is our manifest destiny.

1:32:46That is what God told us to do. That is what is written in the Bible. And that's what we were born to do. And this is something called the clean brick memo. And the clean brick memo had three major pillars that have all been achieved today. The first pillar is stop the also peace process. do not give more land to the Pasadenaeans because the Pasadenaeans are animals. And the way to treat animals is by getting the crap out of them. Do not treat them nicely. They will hate you. So wait, are you saying that the way to stop all of the pessimism that we talked about happening is by the clean break theory succeeding?

1:33:29No, no, no, no. What I said was in 1985, there was already a theory in place called neoliberalism that offered a solution to the Israel-Palestine issue that has been plaguing the Middle East for the past few decades. And if they had thought that through, then we would live in a very different time. Okay. So to my question, my question is, and what would have to be the case for this, all the things you've described, the wars and the conflict, not to happen? Right. What would have happened is the United States had pressured Israel into seeking peace with the Arab nations. Okay, so the US need to get Israel to be friends with the Arab nations?

1:34:09Yes, you force it because Israel is simply dependent on you for technology, for financing, for arms. Israel is the biggest recipient of American foreign policy aid. So just for those that want to know what the clean break theory is, it's called A Clean Break, A New Strategy for Securing the Realm. It refers to a prominent 1996 policy documented and then prepared for Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led by American neoconservative strategists. Did he read this memo? He commissioned it. He commissioned it. Okay. And the key objectives of the clean break are, as you said the first one, abandoning land for peace, which advocated for moving away from the Oslo Accords framework, shifting to a posture of peace through strength and peace for peace without giving up any territory.

1:35:01Number two, regional dominance. It recommended transcending the Israel-Palestine conflict by focusing on weakening regional adversaries, specifically advocating for the containment or removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and Syria and dismantling the Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis. And lastly, preemptive action. It urged Israel to abandon defensive containment policies in favor of proactive offensive strategies. And that's exactly what Israel is doing today. This is what Israel has done for the past 30 years. It has promoted regime change in Syria, in Iraq. And so the conclusion here is to stop this sort of conflict escalating, they have to reverse course with this strategy.

1:35:41The U.S. needs to contain Israel, yes. Okay. But what I'm arguing is it's too late because you've already unleashed these structural forces that will collapse the global trade system, in which case it's every nation for itself. I mean, you've already created the conditions for Japan and China to go to war. You've already created conditions for Germany and Russia to go to war. It's no longer, you can't put the gene back in the bottle again. What does this mean? You know, a lot of, most of us aren't involved in politics. So we just kind of watch this stuff and we have to sort of figure out what to do with our families and our lives in spite of this sort of craziness that we see in the news and the global conflict and all that stuff.

1:36:26What is the advice that you have to the average person? The best advice I can give to the average person is believe in God. So I am a product of the meritocracy. I received the best education in the world And I feel the best education in the world makes you think the world is materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I was a deeply angry, depressed, frustrated person. Because if God doesn't exist, there's no order and structure to what's going on. And it's just complete chaos. and there can be no hope or light in chaos. And because I married a wonderful woman who I think is really an angel because I have like three beautiful children, I do believe there's a plan and a structure and order and reason to the world.

1:37:35And I've come in the past two years and it's only been recent, okay? It's only within the past two years when I have a true belief in God. So it's all going to be okay? Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe in God and you need to focus on your family. Then it will be all right. So don't focus on protesting in the streets or elections or any of those things? If you believe in God and you focus on your family, sometimes you're compelled to take action. Because I believe in God, I live a life following one simple principle, which is speak the truth. Why am I on your show? Why did I spend the past month going on so many different podcasts?

1:38:34because it's important people know the truth. If you really believe in God, if you really focus on your family, you have a personal and moral responsibility to speak the truth. If you know what's gonna happen, then speak it. Why are you doing this? What good will it do? It doesn't matter. It's just like your faith in God compels you to live the truth and to speak the truth and to spread the truth. So just because you believe in God doesn't mean, okay, now I believe in God and now I can just sit back and hide in my room and play computer games all day. It doesn't mean that. It means if you truly believe in God and you believe there's a plan, then you have to take action and you have to participate in the world because why else would God create you?

1:39:25So why is God letting all of this stuff happen? When I look around the world, I see lots of wars and conflict, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other things breaking out at the moment. Why would God let this happen? What is the path to wisdom? Struggle, pain, failure. Yeah. Can we just have the wisdom without them? Well, could you? So we've got a lesson to learn. We have many lessons to learn. But if you are truly a spiritual person, you're thankful for this time. because this struggle, this suffering, will allow us to transcend ourselves. Are we here to make a lot of money and drive fast cars?

1:40:12Are we here to learn what it means to be truly human, to learn what love is, to develop a deeper connection with God? I mean, I think we're here, first and foremost, to be truly human. That means living a life of love, empathy, and imagination. And so we go back to that formula where if you have too much wealth, you have too much fame, you have too much power, it's impossible for you to truly have imagination, empathy, and love. So how do you correct this? Will you create a world of crises? Because in a world of crises, everyone, you and me, we're forced to look deep down and ask yourselves, what is truly important to me what gives me happiness what is meaning and purpose in my life and i think the answer is it's my love for the people around me and that's the answer that we'll all come to and once we come to this um answer then i think that is the great spiritual awakening that could possibly redeem of humanity professor what's the most um pertinent thing that's front to mind for you at the moment that we haven't talked about?

1:41:26Well, I mean, we did talk about the common conflict between China and Japan, and I worry a lot about that. What about AI? We didn't talk about that. And that's kind of overlaid on all of the stories we've talked about, because it's to do with robotics, it's energy, it's semiconductors, chips, it's US, China. Yeah. So that's a great question. And so if we go back and talk about global supply chains, this formula is very important to understand. Technology equals specialization times globalization. So in a time when global supply chains are breaking down, in a time of war, AI cannot make that leap into AGI.

1:42:03So what will happen is AI will be repurposed as a control grid. Rather than AI developing the intelligence necessary to reduce scarcity, to solve the most pressing medical problems of humanity, to solve climate change, AI will be repurposed to monitor and surveil all of us. I think that's going to happen irrespective of, you know, I think governments are going to be increasingly interested in and capable of monitoring all of us all the time. Because we have cameras, we're here in New York City at the moment, there's cameras everywhere. They're just a little bit dumb. They don't really talk to each other.

1:42:48Yep. With AI, they can all talk to each other. That's right. Professor's walking down the street and he's off his way to this hotel and now he's in a hotel. I agree that is the most likely trend. But what I'm saying is all these crises will accelerate this trend. Because let's just say you have a siege of New York City. Well, Palantir will use this opportunity to develop autonomous drone warfare that is controlled by AI. So is that your big concern with AI is surveillance? That's not the big risk I see. The big risk I see is how AI can cheapen the human experience. how AI is almost dehumanizing.

1:43:31Because what people like Ellen Musk and Peter Thiel and Sam Oman are saying is, computers are so much smarter than us. And it could be true that AI will eventually be able to do mathematics, do medical diagnostics much more efficiently than we are. But ultimately, we as humans, we're here to love, imagine and have and be kind to other people and that is what the human experience is and if we focus too much on ai that diverts and distracts us from our true mission which is one of spiritual growth our true mission is spiritual growth what do you um what gives you hope well the only thing of gives me hope um um are my children right you met chris but i'm here because of chris honestly if i didn't have children first of all i don't think i would be this successful because i wouldn't have much purpose and meaning in my life but honestly at the same time i think that while children and i was suddenly this famous i would become very corrupted very fast i would just focused on the fame i would try to make as much money as possible because while children the only purpose in life is competition against others right to prove that i am materially more successful than other people and so i would just try to to make as much money as possible for myself in my 15 minutes of fame but now that children i'm more much more concerned about building a legacy for them and sending a good example are you worried about chris's future i'm not you know i'm not worried about his future why because my wife and i have loved him to the best of our ability and the fact that we love him gives him the confidence to live his life to the fullest We see every day Chris as a gift from God.

1:45:42But if the world is collapsing, in your words, and Chris is in that world, are you not concerned? I'm not at all concerned. Because we are here in order to have a spiritual awakening. And all the crises, they will induce deep reflection in order for us to fulfill our purpose. I don't know why Chris is here. When Chris was two years old He literally told us Mom, dad, I'm from another world And he named that world And I'm just an alien visiting you guys And my wife and I, we weren't surprised We're like, we knew this, yeah We knew you were an alien We knew you came from another world And we knew that you came here to experience Humanity for all our faults And for all our problems and we see you, we love you, but we will do whatever we can to empower you on your mission.

1:46:42And we're gonna try our best because ultimately it's your life, it's your mission, and we cannot ever control you. Love is about trust. Love is about liberation, liberation from your own anxieties and liberation from the need to control others. professor we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for the question left for you is what is your biggest challenge and how are you working on fixing it my biggest challenge is my fear my doubt my paralysis i went to um u.s border yesterday and now i'm afraid that i will never be allowed back in the United States after I leave, I'm afraid that I might get banned from a lot of countries because all I do is talk trash about different countries.

1:47:39I've talked trash about China. I've talked trash about Canada. I've talked trash about the United States. If I get banned from all three countries, I'd be in a lot of trouble. And so my constant challenge is to maintain my faith in God, maintain my faith in my family, maintain my faith in my purpose. I hope you do and you have a wonderful son he's so he's so um

1:48:05curious is the vibe that I got from him he's a gif from god very very curious I just met him in the green room then and he was like uh he's playing with some play-doh and lots of toys and stuff like that and I'm not surprised that he is your son from the 15 seconds I spent with him because he's very very curious and clearly going to be a very smart young man so congratulations thank you

1:48:47We'll see you next time.

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