China’s collapsing population

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0:46Anna is reading with her two-year-old son in their flat in Beijing.

0:53And what do you think about being a mum? Is it a nice experience? I think it's very nice. Actually, it's very wonderful. Just like his mother and father and millions of other Chinese people, Anna's toddler is an only child. He'll probably never have a brother or sister, because for Anna, even having one child wasn't part of the plan. You know, I have a very long time to pursue my study. I didn't have the plan to have a baby even after 32 or 33 years old. My mum suggested me to have a child. She said that would make your life complete. I think, OK, it's not a very bad thing. Maybe I should try it.

1:36So I have my baby and I feel wonderful. So Anna, I'm not using her real name because every topic in China is sensitive, is happy with one child. But for her government, that's not enough. They want parents to have two or three children. A few decades ago, China was thought to have too many people. Now its population is shrinking.

2:04By the time Anna's son enters old age, China's population, currently 1.4 billion, could have halved. That's a massive decline and will have huge consequences for the way China functions and for the ambitions of its leaders.

2:24Welcome to the documentary from the BBC World Service. I'm Mickey Bristow with Assignment. I've been reporting on China from both inside and outside the country for the past two decades.

2:39It's a bright, crisp and sunny morning here in the village of... In that time, I've covered many stories about the Chinese government's attempts to manipulate the size of its population.

2:52In 2010, I followed a group of census workers, helping to count everyone in China. Back then, most couples were allowed only one child. The human cost of that draconian measure wasn't hard to find. I came across this 17-year-old girl who was, in effect, a non-person, excluded from society because she was the second child in her family. Her parents were forbidden from registering her. I'm not like other children. They are allowed to go to school. I'm not. I can only watch them go. I see teachers take them for outings. They have so much fun. I feel very sad. Forty-plus years ago, I came to the United States to study exactly the opposite of what we are talking about right now, which was to control population growth.

3:48Professor Wang Feng was sent by the Chinese government to America with UN funding in the late 1970s to work out how to keep China's birth weight down. At the time, everyone thought the population was spiralling out of control. The post-Mao leadership who came in in the late 1970s, they were looking at a country where the population grew from about 500 million to 1 billion. So they were looking at that huge population growth and everything was in shortage, especially consumer goods. So more people meant more mouth to feed, more jobs to offer and more desks in schools, which clearly was beyond what the society could produce under the planned economy system.

4:36To solve the problem, the one-child policy was introduced in 1980. That meant children were simply not wanted, not in large numbers anyway, at least not by the state, which cajoled, fined and coerced couples into having fewer babies. For many, like this mother, enforcing the one-child policy could be a bitter experience. More than 20 people came to my home. They dragged me like I was a pig. They took me to a population control centre.

5:12I resisted, but they told me the sterilization had to happen that day. It's still terrifying to think about what happened. The one-child policy is the most glaring example of the harm that a Leninist state, like the one in China, what kind of social blunder and social costs it can impose on this population. I would say it's the most glaring example in human history. A combination of historical factors and the state of power led to the worst, not just the longest, but the most consequential policy blunder with enormous cost for China and its enormous lesson for humanity. Professor Wang is now a demographer at the University of California, Irvine.

6:06I first spoke to him in 2007 At the time, China was boasting that the one-child policy had successfully prevented around 400 million births But the truth is, the fertility rate had already been dropping before that restrictive measure The predictions about China's population were wrong making the one-child policy unnecessary Eventually, this became clear but bureaucratic resistance entrenched views and vested interests meant it took years to change course. The children of China may now get brothers and sisters. When the one-child policy was finally abandoned in 2016, many people, including Professor Wang, were surprised that it didn't lead to a baby boom.

6:58Just over 18 million babies were born in China that year, But a decade later, that number had fallen to just under 8 million. One thing that surprised me is how an abnormal social norm became normalised. Professor Wang places some of the blame for the continuing fall in Chinese fertility on the long shadow cast by the one-child policy. During the 35 years of the one-child policy, one-child was an abnormal norm imposed by the government. And so one would expect that after the policy, the norm would return. But what we've seen is the opposite. With 35 years of the one-child policy, the only children growing up, they felt it's fine.

7:47I'm the only child. I don't need to have two children. I grew up fine. Why do I need to have two children? So an abnormal norm created during the one-child policy now has been normalized as the new norm. That is the ironic effect of the one channel policy.

8:09In Beijing, Anna's attitude bears out what the professor is saying. I think for the moment, I think one channel is enough for me and for my family. Why do you think that? Because I didn't see any necessity to have a second one, even though my son would have some needs for social company. But because I grew up in a single child family and I have many friends and classmates to play with, so I don't really feel lonely. Because, you know, we have a dense population, so we have many neighborhoods. And I grew up with many sisters and brothers of the near neighbors. And I have many good friends to play with.

8:56And when I was in the primary school, the school activities is very good. And I enjoyed my time at primary school, actually. Singing, dancing and playing balls with others and ping pong. I don't feel any lonely. So from my childhood to now, I don't really see any necessity for two childs. Anna says the important thing is the quality of time spent both for her child and for herself yes yes actually I put a lot of time on my baby I think I have good quality time with him so that is good for my child and for another way I think that is a bit compromise for myself Why is it a compromise? Because I suppose if you do that all for one child, to do it for two would be perhaps just too exhausting.

9:57Two would make me more tired and I wouldn't have lots of time to have my own life. Actually, I hope I could experience many different lives and different hobbies. I would like to ski, skating or diving. I want to learn. So if I spend a lot of time with my child, then I wouldn't have a lot of time for myself.

10:31There are other forces pushing Chinese parents towards having fewer children too, including the rising cost of living. Lauren, again I'm not using her real name, is a single mother living with her 12-year-old son Robert in Shanghai, one of China's most expensive cities. She's definitely feeling the pinch. Financially, it's on my own, So I have to do like cover everything. I have to work. I have to balance life and work. And I have to keep an eye on his studies. What kind of house do you have? How many bedrooms is that? Describe it to me. Oh, one bedroom. So it's a one bedroom flat. One bedroom, one living room, one bathroom, one kitchen.

11:15It's very simple. And do you sleep in, do you mind me asking, do you sleep in the living room and Robert sleep in the bedroom? We actually sleep in the same bedroom. Like we have a bumpy bed. Like he sleeps up, I sleep down. There's a bumpy bed. A bunk bed? Yeah. Oh, so he sleeps on the top of the bunk bed and you sleep on the lower bed? Yes. And do you earn enough money to cover your rent and food? Tell me something about the other expenses. His study, I didn't have to pay for so much, just his uniform. Then food.

12:01Many children Robert's age have extra tuition to help them eventually get into a good university. But Lauren can't afford it. I think most of the time he can handle his homework. He can handle his studies at school. Of course, the other hand is expensive. If you like sign him extra classes, maybe in like two years, probably I will sign him extra classes. But now I think he can handle the class by himself. For most families in Shanghai, if they are Shanghainese, they can afford everything. And they also have extra money to travel or to do extra classes, do whatever they want. because raising a child is not just about feeding them.

12:42It's about education, kids growing. They just need everything. It's always hard to balance work and life. But still, the way the parents feel is that you have to spend money on extra tutors. In China, it's an expected thing to do. Yes. I think in China, there are so many people, right? So you have to study hard to get. After you graduate from university or college, you are able to get a good job. So parents wish their kids get good education, get good food, beautiful clothes, go to extra classes, good at sports, everything. You have lots of pressure to be a parent like this. There's a lot of pressure on you to provide all of those things.

13:30I think I know myself. I'm not rich, so I'm just lower my expectation. I think it's OK sometimes not to be the best so they can explore the world without so many pressure from parents.

13:51China's fertility rate now hovers at around one birth per woman. To keep the population stable, they need to have more than double that. Plenty of other countries are facing the same issue. Immigration could offset the falling numbers, but many nations are reluctant to embrace this solution. China stands out, though, because of the scale of the coming decline. We're talking hundreds of millions of fewer people. Here's Professor Wang again. I think the leaders have basically thrown up their hands on this, and they will just try to see what else they can do. The United Nations has been revising down China's population growth And the latest one was that China, by the end of the century, which is 75 years, 74 years from now, would have a population that's about slightly over half of what it is now.

14:45It's like 55%. But with the latest fertility numbers we're seeing, if this does not go up substantially, China could have less than half of its population by the end of the century. we're seeing a deepening crisis just unfolding in front of our eyes. So China's population could fall to around 650 million by the end of the century. Some think it could drop even lower, to 330 million people. For everyone who's long thought of China as being overpopulated, that's an extraordinary prospect. Probably a larger force driving this is what we're seeing also in Japan, in South Korea, in Taiwan. is, I would say, it's the morning after effect, which is after the period of rapid economic growth.

15:36You've seen this, the cost of living, everything shut up. So the new generation, they do not see the double-digit income increase as their parents' generation, but they do encounter the high cost of living of everything. Combined with this economic pessimism compared with their parents' generation, that's probably a larger driving force for what we're seeing today.

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16:46I'm Mickey Bristow, and this is Assignment, looking at China's shrinking population.

16:56In the early years of the century, China's rise seemed unstoppable, its future glorious, partly because of the size of its population. Now there's a little more uncertainty, a few more pressures, with a falling birth rate adding to the problems, as these people on the streets of Beijing clearly understand.

17:18If the population decreases, all other aspects of life will be affected too. Education, the economy, real estate, everything. Society has been geared up for the population we have now. If it decreases, demand decreases, and as a result, everything will be reduced.

17:44When it comes to China's population, the main issue at the moment is aging. I think it's a pretty urgent problem. Unlike Japan, China's getting old before getting rich. The proportion of people age 60 and over is already very high. And in some regions, there's no proper system to care for the elderly.

18:08Raising a child is really stressful, definitely much more stressful than being on my own. Everything from food, housing and transport is much more difficult than before. Right now, it's okay, as my baby is young and doesn't eat much. But the pressure will increase when they go to school.

18:39Little Swallow, a popular song celebrating childhood, where youngsters look forward to a bright future. Over the last few years, the Chinese government has once again emphasized the value of children and has taken a number of measures to encourage more births, with motivation from the very top.

19:02China's leader Xi Jinping recites a poem about motherhood, something he's been keen to promote.

19:12The authorities have held mass weddings like this one to encourage others to tie the knot. To make childbirth less painful, hospitals are being forced to offer women epidural anaesthetics, something that's not yet standard in China. And then there's money. The local authorities and now the central government are giving couples cash handouts for having more children. But so far, none of it has worked. I think for a lot of young women, especially those who are educated living in big cities, it's very easy to do the math and realise that it's not economically helpful for them, nor is it really mentally helpful for them to have children.

19:54Zhang Che is a lecturer in Chinese politics at Warwick University in Britain. She's been researching changing social attitudes in China, particularly among women, who are increasingly refusing to accept the role being assigned to them. She's been following the female online community in China, who aren't just sceptical about having children, but also of finding a man suitable enough to have them with. We're looking at your phone now, and you've got up a website called Xiaohongshu. It means Little Red Book, but it's also Red Note, I think it's translated. Yes, also translated as Red Note. And so this was a website initially set up to sell things, but it's become a forum for young women to express what do they express.

20:42A lot of the posts are really expressing women's anxiety and frustration in their daily life. Currently, we're looking at one poster that says, if you don't get married, the only thing that you're going to be blamed for, your only crime, is to not get married. If you do get married, there will be a lot of things that you're going to be blamed for. And there's a long list of things you could be blamed for. Just tell me, what are some of those things? Yes. The first one is not having children. The second one, you had children, but it's not a boy. Not having the second children, if your marriage doesn't really help your husband career-wise, if you're not being kind to your in-laws.

21:24In China, there's always a lot of tensions between wives and their mother-in-laws. Also, if you spend too much money, if you don't do chores at home, if you oversleep, or if you go to work and not taking care of your kids, or if you're staying at home, taking care of your kids, and then other people will say you're not earning enough. So basically, the only crime you commit if you don't have a child is not to have a child, but all those other things are the things that could go wrong. Yes.

21:57Let's have a look at another post. I think there's one with a chainsaw, isn't there? What does the chainsaw represent there? I think it's just to represent young women's hope that in their life they can have something they can depend on to protect themselves. Because a lot of young women currently living alone in big cities, they may be financially independent, but still they feel very unsafe. So basically women fear men so much that they have to have a chainsaw at home to protect themselves. Yes, that's the implication that we can see from that post. What is it women fear about men? There are so many news these days about women being trafficked to deep in the mountains or there are women, even educated women being sold to remote villages.

22:46All those kind of news are having an impact on women's psychology. A lot of young women these days in universities and colleges don't even speak to men. Like many other Chinese women, Zhang Che is herself an example of the shift in mood away from motherhood. Now in her late 30s, she and her husband have decided not to have children.