The president’s path: Trump’s Latino base

0:00Courtney Subramanian:This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. Before Achilles found glory and Odysseus eventually found his way home, someone had to compose the Iliad and Odyssey. But was their credited author, Homer, even real? Hi, I'm Greg Jenner, host of You're Dead to Me, the comedy show that takes history seriously. And we are travelling back to 8th century BCE to trace the origins of the Iliad and Odyssey, epic poems that became backbones of Western literature. Join me and my fantastic guests as we unpack the stories of ancient Greek culture, war and triumph and have a laugh while we do it. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:41Sumi Somaskanda:Thank you. Bye.

0:46Sumi Somaskanda:Hi there, I'm Sumi Somoskandha. Welcome to The President's Path here on The Explanation Feed. If you're curious about the world and want trusted, thoughtful analysis about the US and further afield, the explanation feed from the BBC is for you, so please follow and subscribe. Of course, here on The President's Path, every week we walk back along the latest actions of President Trump and his administration. Today, I'm joined by our senior reporter, Bernd Busman, and our assistant editor, Courtney Subramanian.

1:24Sumi Somaskanda:hi guys hey baron how is mexico treating you good i just feel like i'm missing a lot back in dc this week it's kind of a busy one it certainly has and you know the biggest news of course is that we have courtney back with us courtney welcome back thank you thank you it's good to be here. Glad to not be changing a diaper for one. Incredible accomplishment of bringing another lovely little human into the world. So we're glad to have you back. And you know, if Bernd thinks that he missed a lot in one week, I'm sure it feels overwhelming to look back at the time that you've been gone. But what's that like coming back?

2:00Bernd Debusmann Jr:Yeah, I mean, everything's changed, but nothing's changed at all. The way I've described it to people is the pace hasn't changed, but the amount of hours I sleep has. So it makes it a bit difficult these days. But I'm just trying to keep up, get my feet underneath me. And yeah, we'll see.

2:21Sumi Somaskanda:We'll see. Well, of course, there's plenty for us to talk about this week. And we know that President Trump and Putin are holding their massive meeting in Alaska. And we will, of course, be digging into all angles of that and President Trump's foreign policy priorities and strategy. Stay tuned for that next week for our listeners and viewers when we have a bit more of an idea of what the outcome is there. But we had the three of us been talking a bit before recording this pod and thought, let's spend an episode taking a bit of a closer look at a voting group that we talked about so much in the lead up to the 2024 election, which was Latino voters.

2:57Sumi Somaskanda:And, you know, we in the aftermath of the election also dissected how these voters cast their ballots. And, you know, the big top line there, and banned you know this better than anyone as you covered the Latino vote so heavily, was that President Trump really had unprecedented success with this voting group.

3:14Courtney Subramanian:He did. And now that we can kind of look back at the numbers, I think it's even more clear how significant that was over time compared to even from 2016 to last year, that huge jump and the share among the Democrats falling so much. I think it's fair to say that like one of the main factors in winning him the election, especially in those key states like Pennsylvania, for example.

3:37Bernd Debusmann Jr:And also on the border, right? You can't forget that, you know, he actually performed really well in some of those border counties in Texas. I mean, as you said, Byrne, like part of this, this victory was powered by the Latino vote. He came close to taking the majority, right? I think Pew put out a more comprehensive picture of the vote. And he came away with 48 % of the Latino vote compared to Kamala Harris, who got 51 and obviously, you know, underperformed from 2020. But this was, I think, one of the biggest narratives of the 2024 election was just, you know, not only how Trump performed, but also So looking deeper into the Latino voter, they're not a monolith.

4:28Bernd Debusmann Jr:They are shifting right. But that, you know, they're a much more complex voting bloc than we have previously thought. Yeah.

4:37Sumi Somaskanda:And the reason we wanted to dig into this is because we have seen in these eight months of President Trump's second term, how many of the policies that he's focused on really are policies that he sold to Latino voters as being really important for their community. in particular. So whether it's on the economy, something that really drove Latino voters or immigration, these are issues that he has been front and center really for his first eight months. So if we dig into the economy first, I mean, really, economic numbers, inflation, we're seen as a key driver of why Latino voters moved towards President Trump in the last election.

5:17Sumi Somaskanda:It's hard to say, you know, obviously, definitively, because as you said, Courtney, Latino voters are not a monolith. You know, they're split by generation, by gender, by the region of Latin America, their roots come from and so on and so forth. But if you if you look at this as a bit of a voting bloc, you know, obviously we don't have definitive polling. But there was a really interesting study that came out from Equus Research in July that said about a third of Latinos who supported Donald Trump last year are not set on voting for a Republican during next year's midterms. So let's start there then with the economy.

5:50Sumi Somaskanda:Where do you guys see perhaps some of the strengths and weaknesses for President Trump among this voting bloc?

5:56Courtney Subramanian:I was just having to look at some of that data from some of those polls as well. And, you know, particularly among Latino men under 40, you know, some of the issues they raised were cost of living, inflation, housing and health care costs. And I think unless they see kind of a really notable improvement over time, I mean, actually not that much time because the midterms are coming up. I think that's kind of a risky position for the Trump administration to be in, that they have to show very definitively to that voting bloc that they've made improvements there in terms of inflation and cost of living, for example.

6:30Courtney Subramanian:And if they don't, I think that'll come back to haunt them.

6:33Bernd Debusmann Jr:I agree with you, Bern. I think that, you know, the number one issue from Latino voters I spoke to, I actually, during the 2024 campaign, shadowed Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who was the campaign manager for Biden before he stepped out of the race, out in California. And we met with a bunch of Latino voters and just listening to them. The main takeaway was, you know, just paying for those everyday basic needs. It really comes down to grocery prices. Right. And like Trump, part of his campaign promise was bringing these prices down. We haven't seen that happen. We've seen a lot of market turmoil, you know, with the tariffs.

7:13Bernd Debusmann Jr:And I think there's just that that general unease about the economy. And I think, you know, there's a wait and see approach, of course. But yeah, as Burns said, they're running out of time because 2026 is right around the corner.

7:27Courtney Subramanian:And to that point, just, you know, one of the criticism of the Dems in this last election and actually in the last couple elections, was that they didn't focus on those sort of everyday economic issues and focused on social issues, which really didn't prove to be that much of a winner among Latino voters. I think if they did the opposite now and focused on those economics where they see that Trump perhaps hasn't delivered to people's satisfaction, I think that could really benefit the Democrats if they were to go down that way.

7:56Sumi Somaskanda:Well, President Trump and his administration, they have been very keen to point out what they see as really good economic data. They put out, you know, more press statements saying, look, wages are rising. And we got those more recent numbers on inflation on the consumer price index that saw better than expected numbers on inflation staying relatively similar to where it was. The reality is, however, if some of those larger tariff numbers go into effect, and we've seen some of them announced, for example, on goods from Brazil affecting coffee imports, if they go into effect and start to really drive inflation up.

8:32Sumi Somaskanda:That's where you could see for this voting bloc, where the economy, inflation, prices of everyday goods are so critical, at least that's what they voiced ahead of the election, as you guys said, that could be where we see to start to see them turn a bit.

8:45Bernd Debusmann Jr:Some of that polling that you were speaking about earlier, the Equus polling, really paints a picture as well. I mean, one of the lines that stood out to me was that, you know, a majority of Latinos, 64 percent, rated the economy, the current U.S. economy, somewhat or very poor, and only 34 percent saw it as somewhat or very good. So, you know, this, they're not changing their stance in terms of, you know, now that we are seeing President Trump implement some of these policies, things aren't getting better for them. You know, they're very pessimistic. They were already skeptical of Democrats. Now they're skeptical of Republicans.

9:25Bernd Debusmann Jr:You know, they've sort of grown disillusioned with both parties at this juncture.

9:31Courtney Subramanian:And I also think more broadly, I mean, if the economic impact of, for example, immigration enforcement, you know, a lot of Latinos, especially Latino men around the country are employed in industries like construction or agriculture. You know, if those industries start to feel a pinch because of the Trump administration's policies. I think that just kind of adds to the general feeling of economic unease a lot of people are starting to have within that community.

9:57Sumi Somaskanda:And that brings us to such an important aspect of how Latino voters might be viewing President Trump now, you know, more than eight months into his second term, is immigration policy. Look, I think we heard the criticism from analysts of the Latino vote that Democrats, they believed in the 2024 election focused far too much on what they assumed would be a pro-immigration policy among Latino communities across the U.S. And the reality is they didn't understand some of the complexities there among the different voting tendencies, let's say, and some of those male Latino voters in particular moving right.

10:33Sumi Somaskanda:But it's really interesting to see Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who we talked about last week on the pod. You know, I saw him say in an interview that he did with CBS News a month or two ago, he said, look, I see Latino men and Latino voters who cast their ballots for Donald Trump having buyer's remorse because they're saying this is not what I voted for. We wanted border security and deportations, but not the way it's being done now, not the way that is disrupting our communities entirely. So I guess we should start with border versus deportations and ICE roundups. But where do you see this coming down among Latino voters?

11:12Courtney Subramanian:Well, I think if one looks at the border just as its own issue, I think you'd be hard pressed to find a Trump supporter, Latino or otherwise, who, you know, isn't convinced that he's done exactly what he said he would do. I mean, just looking at the numbers of detentions at the border, the number of people released into the United States, which, you know, the White House, Caroline Levitt mentions those numbers at the top of every single briefing without fail every time. So I think it's hard not to frame that as a promise is kept by the White House. I think where it gets more complicated is in the deportations, because there's some communities that were, you know, very Trump leaning in the election.

11:53Courtney Subramanian:Let's say Venezuelans in South Florida or Cubans that might be having buyer's remorse now because of things such as temporary protected status for Venezuelans being taken away. Some of the parole programs for Cubans. I mean, these are communities that almost reflexively are anti left in any way. And, you know, they feel many of them feel and are saying that they feel quite let down by those, you know, domestic immigration enforcement policies.

12:19Bernd Debusmann Jr:I also think that there was sort of a disconnect with what Trump was saying when he was talking about mass deportations and deporting, you know, criminals, undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Right. And versus, you know, maybe Latino voters who are third, fourth generation don't necessarily view themselves as part of the immigrant community in the way that they thought the president was. speaking about. And so, you know, it's one thing, as Byrne said, when he's talking about deporting criminals, but it's another thing when we're seeing these sort of mass roundups, we're seeing, you know, ice raids on farms and restaurants and hotels.

13:09Bernd Debusmann Jr:And, you know, as you said, in some of these communities, particularly in South Florida, we see ice, you know, walking around and people, there's a sense of fear, right, that maybe they didn't think was going to be the case when the president was on the campaign trail. And they didn't see that as something that would affect them personally. But yeah, there's like a sense of betrayal there if you talk to, you know, some Latino voters who didn't sort of see it playing out this way. And I think the big question is, is how does this all manifest next year at the ballot box in the midterm elections?

13:46Bernd Debusmann Jr:And, you know, will some of these more rigorous immigration policies, you know, turn people away from Republican, Republicans who, you know, they'll be voting for or not voting for?

13:59Sumi Somaskanda:This is The President's Path with me, Sumi Somaskanda, Bernda Busman, and Courtney Sobermanian.

14:10Courtney Subramanian:Hello, Greg Jenner here. I'm the host of You're Dead to Me, the BBC comedy show that takes history seriously. Every episode, I pair up a top historian with a fantastic comedian, and we have a lovely, funny, fascinating chat about a different subject from world history. And in this new series, we're beginning with an epic voyage through the story of Homer, the Iliad, and the Odyssey. And that's with Kyle Smith-Bino joining us. And then we'll be learning about Francis Galton and the racist, discredited pseudoscience of eugenics with Desiree Birch. We'll meet many medieval saints in their bone boxes with Rachel Parrott.

14:44Courtney Subramanian:So if that sounds like your sort of thing, listen to You're Dead to Me wherever you get your podcasts.

14:49Bernd Debusmann Jr:Thank you.

14:50Sumi Somaskanda:Bye.

14:54Sumi Somaskanda:You're listening to The President's Path. I mean, it's important to say that in South Texas, where we saw a significant swing towards President Trump, these are the regions along the border that saw a massive influx of migrants over the last few years before President Biden and his administration issued their executive order to crack down on immigration at the southern border. And, you know, these are communities that will be likely, based on the voting patterns, very happy with the numbers that the White House, as you guys said, is very keen to mention, which is that they've been very successful in shutting down those illegal crossings at the border.

15:31Sumi Somaskanda:On the larger deportations question, you know, I was looking back at some of the executive orders that President Trump had issued right when he came into office to understand how some of those targeted immigration and might affect those communities. So there was the executive order suspending the entry of undocumented migrants under any circumstances. So clearly that's had a very clear impact on those border crossings. There was also cancelling the use of the CPB1 smartphone app. So that allowed people who were in Mexican territory to schedule appointments at the U.S. border ports for legal entry into the country.

16:06Sumi Somaskanda:I thought a bit about that and how perhaps for those Latino communities in the U.S. who are advocating for legal pathways into the U.S., that might be a sign that those are drawing up, closing up, something that might give them pause. And then there was the executive order that faced multiple challenges, which has been temporarily blocked by a federal judge, to undo birthright citizenship. You know, and that really digs deep into the American identity of some of these Latino communities who have been here generations. And I think that might have been a bit of a warning sign for some of these communities in particular, because they really obviously identify with American culture and American with American voting patterns.

16:50Sumi Somaskanda:You know, you've seen Latino analysts say, treat Latino voters like any other voting bloc. You know, they they don't necessarily vote along certain lines that you might have thought in previous years. But, yeah, I mean, I wonder if that's going to perhaps have more of an impact than those border executive orders that I mentioned.

17:08Courtney Subramanian:I think it's interesting how we're starting to see, I mean, even from within the Republican Party, we're starting to see pushback in terms of some of those policies. for example uh rep uh uh mirasalasar florida republican introduced legislation due to uh you know to create a pathway to citizenship essentially for undocumented immigrants who had been in the u.s a long time which from the administration standpoint they seem to be moving away from from that suggestion it's not really even been a topic of conversation at the at the white house these last eight months so i think there's you know in birthright citizens well you're starting to see a lot more internal pushback from elected Republicans, because they're ultimately going to have to answer to, you know, in some cases, very heavily Latino constituencies in the coming in the next year.