Ukraine: Whose peace?

0:00This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

0:46The 24th of February 2022 is edged into the collective memory of Ukrainians. The world looked on in disbelief as Russian tanks rolled across the border and advanced on Kiev. Nearly four years on, the war grinds on. There's a little under a million people fighting right now on the Ukrainian side. It's somewhere between 800 ,000 and a million, according to President Zelensky. Vladimir Putin said back in September last year that there were more than 700 ,000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine.

1:31Western experts estimate that the war caused nearly two million military casualties, killed, wounded or missing. A front line stretching more than 1 ,000 kilometres scars Europe, leaving the continent on edge about possible escalation. Now there's much talk about peace, but it's not looking hopeful. There is quite a fair degree of scepticism right now in Ukraine about the US commitment. All these negotiations, they're missing the key ingredient, they're missing Russia. And Russia's position has not changed. In this episode, we go behind the rhetoric of the peace talks. We compare the Russian and the Ukrainian wish lists to spot any common ground.

2:16And we ask, what are the peace negotiations achieving?

2:24Welcome to the documentary from the BBC World Service. I'm Krasi Ivanova-Twig, and this is the global jigsaw from BBC Monitoring, where we look at the world through the lens of its media, exploring the narratives, the propaganda and the disinformation.

2:44We were not on the territory of Ukraine. Western countries are not the international community. That era has finished.

2:57Moscow lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in this war. Yet Russian society appears to be supportive of it. BBC Monitoring's Russia editor Vitaly Shevchenko, who is Ukrainian himself, explains why. Television and Kremlin-controlled media prefer to focus on the good news about how Russia is liberating those towns and villages in Ukraine one by one.

3:28So this is one reason why opinion polls suggest very strongly that Russians support the war. It's a stiflingly repressive environment. people have been known to be arrested by answering questions the wrong way in opinion polls. When I say that 73 % of Russians support the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine, we have to assume that some of them say it because they're afraid to say something else, but most of them say it because they genuinely believe it's doing the right thing in Ukraine. So now we talk about peace negotiations. Is there support for peace then in that case? If I were to refer to the same opinion poll carried out by Russia's independent pollster called the Levada Center, who is designated the foreign agent in Russia, that same poll found that two-third of Russians believe that now is the time to move on to peace talks.

4:38I think they're signaling that they've sort of tired of the war. Margarita Malukova from our Kyiv team brings us the Ukrainian view on peace. If we are to trust the latest opinion polls, then Ukrainians are actually quite skeptical about any kind of peace agreement with Russia. They expect that Russia will break any peace agreement. But also Ukrainians are quite optimistic about the way the war is going, that even though Russia may be advancing on some sectors of the front line, it's doing so with great losses and also very slowly. The opinion polls aren't always reliable. People might say what is the socially acceptable thing to say or the patriotic thing to say.

5:18But I think we do see signs of resilience in Ukrainian society. Also throughout the whole war we haven't really seen any anti-war protests. We've seen anti-corruption protests.

5:32But Ukrainian society is not really questioning the government's course towards resistance against Russian aggression. As Vitaly hinted, the Russian public is getting a curated picture of events on the front line. Time and again on Russian state TV and from the Russian defence ministry, we've heard jubilant reports about the Russian army liberating Ukrainian towns, for example, the town of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region.

6:07Russia insists that it's taken it, but verified videos suggest that the fighting is still going on. I think Zelensky recently popped up in Kupyansk and recorded a video from there.

6:22And that, I think, was partly to debunk Russian propaganda, because Russia has been saying that it captured Kupyansk. Part of this is also information warfare. Sometimes I've seen reports of Russian army liberating villages and towns that don't really exist. But the thrust of that messaging translates into this kind of support that we're seeing from the Russian public. Over the last few months, there've been rounds of extensive peace negotiations behind closed doors, producing peace plans that are somewhat light on detail. Let's take Washington's first draft. The 28-point plan firmly backs Russia's demands.

7:07Then there's a 20-point plan, which is slightly watered down. Then there's a plan of the Coalition of the Willing, which is a group of countries supporting Ukraine. But what I'm going to show you, and I'm just shuffling some papers, is a Russian plan that I saw in Istanbul in June last year. The first time that Russians came out with a list of their demands. I've circled here one, two, three, four. Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Parisia and Kherson regions and Crimea. No foreign military activity, i.e. Western military activity in Ukraine. A cap on the number of troops in the Ukrainian army and the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia.

7:57If you look at the 28-point plan, it's all there. One, two, three, four. And there was a leak in the media suggesting that this actual 28-point plan came from Russia. It's now ten past eight. When a 28-point plan was leaked, it read to many like a Kremlin wish list. Indeed, some senators claim they've been told it was exactly that by none other than the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio himself. He denies that in the face of computer analysis of the wording, which suggests that the plan was originally written in Russian and then translated into English, not always completely successfully. The Americans' plan includes key Russian demands.

8:41It means that the Americans are backing key Russian demands.

8:54or risk of loss of a key partner.

9:24And now is the 20-point peace plan that was negotiated by Ukraine and the United States. And Ukraine is very optimistic that this is a plan that is almost ready, but it does have some controversial points, in particular a compromise regarding territory. Territory is a major sticking point. So too is the size of the army Ukraine would be allowed to keep once the war ends. Ukrainians want to have a strong, sizable army to defend them in case of repeat invasion. Ukraine's army is also very well trained in real battlefield conditions, which is not the case for European armies. So limiting the size of the army would be a huge red line for Kiev.

10:09Ukrainian cities face barrages of Russian drones on a regular basis, and Ukrainians have learned to adapt to that. And with very limited resources, they are able to repel hundreds of drones. And this is a technique that, for example, Poland is learning from Ukraine. And also Ukraine has developed a defense industry. Ukraine has this new drone technology that Donald Trump has expressed interest in. Ukraine now also makes its own missile, the Flamingo missile. So that's also part of the strength of the Ukrainian army that we're talking about. The security guarantees, what do they look like in the Ukrainian version of this peace plan?

10:52The proposal is for Ukraine to get security guarantees that mirror NATO Article 5 from the US, from NATO and from European signatories. Would that work? I think it's questionable. Recently at the summit of the Coalition of the Willing, the U.S. formally supported the European security guarantees, but it did not confirm it in writing. However, President Zelensky has said that the security guarantees are 100 percent ready, at least from the U.S. side, and he expects them to be formalized in Congress. But there is quite a fair degree of skepticism right now in Ukraine about the U.S. commitment, because in one of the peace plans there is a clause saying that if Ukraine attacks Russia, the agreement is null and void.

11:42And we've seen that it's very easy for Russia to accuse Ukraine of attacking. For example, recently Russia accused Ukraine of attacking Putin's residence in Valdai.

11:58And according to some reports, Trump believed this until U.S. intelligence services told him that it was false, that there was no attack. So we see that there is a fair degree of concern in Ukraine that Russia might accuse Ukraine falsely of attacking, and therefore the security guarantees would also be invalid. And what about security guarantees from the Coalition of the Willing? What's on offer? France and Britain have said they are able to send troops to Ukraine as part of the security guarantees, but it's questionable that Russia will say yes to that. Previously, it has opposed the idea of NATO troops in Ukraine or any kind of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine.

12:43France and the UK made a commitment to deploy troops to Ukraine. However, and this is a huge however, all of this is meant to happen once hostilities cease. The problem is how we arrive at a point when fighting stops. Let's not forget, Ukraine's security is our security. Russia shows no sign of abating, no sign of remorse, no sign of seeking peace. On the contrary, over the crisis... And it's only if Russia believes we're serious to responding to any violation, this will underpin a lasting peace. And all these negotiations, they're missing the key ingredient, they're missing Russia. And Russia's position has not changed since they published that list of demands back in June in Istanbul.

13:35all, which means that any ceasefire will happen only on Russia's terms unless more pressure is put on Russia. And that is just not happening. How could peace be guaranteed that would be agreeable for Russia? NATO's Article 5 says an attack on one is an attack on all. And why Article 5 is not going to work for Ukraine. Why Ukraine is not being allowed into NATO is the answer to your question, because Western governments, they are reluctant to commit to sending troops to Ukraine in the face of lethal danger. The former Soviet republics who were really quick to join NATO, I would argue they are sufficiently protected by the alliance.

14:28I'm talking about Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. I don't think Vladimir Putin is going to risk it, openly attacking those countries secretly. Yeah, that's what he's been doing by deploying various ways of hybrid warfare, but openly I don't think so. The coalition of the willing said that they discussed commitments and it says that these commitments, and I quote, may include the use of military capabilities. Now, this isn't the kind of language that is going to make Vladimir Putin shake in his boots, because this is very vague. It by no means guarantees the use of force should Ukraine be attacked by Russia.

15:08The Coalition of the Willing is proposing deploying what they call a reassurance force to Ukraine, which would observe and oversee any ceasefire that might happen. It remains unclear what that force will do should Russia attack. Will they engage with the Russian forces? The second problem is that Russia is still saying no to the deployment of any foreign Western forces to Ukraine. Does that mean Russia effectively has the right of veto of any decisions made by Ukraine's allies? Is the West going to accept that? No. With so many fundamental differences unresolved, what, if anything, is the peace process achieving?

16:04What we're talking about is just intentions that are so far removed from the grim reality of war, from the fact that Russia is still insistent on attacking Ukraine, that these people are sort of talking among themselves and they're coming up with ideas that are impossible to implement without the will to take huge and costly risks. So it's all very hypothetical. They've changed nothing, either on the ground or in Vladimir Putin's thinking. The Russian president's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, argued that every day of war is a lost day for Kiev, worsening Ukraine's position.

16:52Washington has its own ideas about Ukraine's future and how it can repay the military assistance it got from the US. We want something for our efforts beyond what you would think would be acceptable. We said rare earth, they're very good rare earth. As you know, we're looking for rare earth all the time. Rare earth is called rare for a reason. And they have a lot. You'll remember a few months ago there was stress on Vladimir Zelensky to essentially sign them away to America.

17:30Has there been any sign at all about the willingness to compromise on anything from Russia? None.

17:42American assistance to Ukraine has all but stopped, and the whole Western alliance, it's unravelling. Vladimir Putin never saw it in his wildest dreams. He's so much bolder now. And the bottom line for Ukraine is that why would he stop now? But why then are the Russians engaging in the negotiation process? No dictator or very few dictators are willing to admit they are dictators. And the same applies to aggressors.

18:16Vladimir Putin, I've been watching him for more than a quarter of a century. and he's always sounding benign and peaceful. And he's always saying that Russia is a force for good and we want to live in peace. That's why he is so keen to create a facade of trying to resolve this peacefully. An idea the US president appears to have bought into as well. Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed. President Putin was very generous in his feeling toward Ukraine succeeding. The reason why Vladimir Putin is engaged in these negotiations is to influence Donald Trump. This allows Russia to continue the war unabated.

19:05Ukraine's leaders may privately share Vitaly's scepticism, but in public they sound a bit about the peace talks. Ukrainian officials generally are very optimistic in their statements about the talks. President Zelensky, for example, says that the peace agreement is 90 % ready or 95 % ready. And he recently said that security guarantees with the US, for example, are 100 % ready. But also Ukrainian officials always stress that Russia keeps attacking Ukraine, and therefore Russia clearly doesn't want peace, because it's part of the Ukrainian strategy to show that Russia is the party that doesn't want peace in order to break the Russian narrative that Ukraine doesn't want peace.

19:49But there seems to be a bit of a contradiction between, OK, Russia doesn't want peace, and we're very positive and optimistic that, you know, we're 95 % there. How would you explain that? Psychological warfare is a big part of this war, and keeping up the morale is obviously very important. So I think that's part of the strategy. If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story?

20:35What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to the documentary from the BBC World Service. What Ukrainian territory does Russia currently control? It's about 20 % in the southeast. And there are really good historical reasons why. This is where the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine is predominantly concentrated. Of course, they would be more susceptible to Kremlin influence. That's the thinking in the Kremlin. This war was artificially started by Russia, which created and fanned ethnic tensions.

21:23If the occupied territories became official parts of Russia, life for people living there would be very different from what they were used to under Ukraine. Once Russia occupies certain parts of Ukraine, in the vast majority of cases, it occupies ruins with a handful of people clinging on, people who either can't or won't leave. We're talking about the sick and the elderly. In other cases, they are citizens of Ukraine who are willing to live under Russian rule. There is quite a repressive political climate in the occupied territories and any kind of expression of a pro-Ukrainian position would probably land people in jail.

22:08Any sort of contact with the Ukrainian authorities is really fraught. You are running a really high risk of getting fined or worse. They might very likely be tortured. We have evidence of that. There are memoirs written about the various techniques of torture being applied to people. And they would most likely be forced to accept a Russian passport. Otherwise, they wouldn't have access to basic services. It is medical care. If one is a man, then one would likely be drafted into the Russian army. We have even cases of underage men being drafted and forced to fight against the Ukrainian army.

22:51Unfortunately, we don't really have much access to the occupied territories. There's such information vacuum, so much censorship, that we really don't know exactly how people feel. We know from some media reports and from people who escaped that it was difficult for them to get information from the Ukrainian side. Despite Ukraine's efforts, despite a TV channel launched specifically for this purpose. Indeed, it was difficult for them to understand what the Ukrainian position was on this population, whether they were even welcome back into Ukraine. A new idea was recently floated of a Ukrainian referendum on the future of the Donbass, large part of which is in Russian hands.

23:36The world first heard about it from the Ukrainian president himself. This possibility of parliament to vote according to the law or to have a referendum. If the plan will be very difficult, of course, our society has to choose and has to vote because it's their land, the land of our nation. That idea is part of a package discussed, mentioned by Vladimir Zelensky under pressure from the Americans who want Ukraine to meet this Russian demand to give up territory in exchange for a promise of peace. Ukrainian law says that if there's any change to the constitution or Ukraine's territorial integrity, it will need to be put to a referendum.

24:23There is another idea in circulation that has gained traction at the talks. A potential swap of territory or even the creation of a demilitarized zone. Ukrainian troops would have to withdraw from part of Donetsk region that Ukraine currently controls. But Russia also would not control this territory. So it would be a free economic zone or a demilitarized zone. So far, Russia has not commented very much on this Ukrainian proposal, but it's certainly a compromise from Ukraine. And how did that go down with the public? What was the reaction? It's very controversial. So according to that opinion poll, only about 55 % of Ukrainians support the idea of a referendum on the peace plan.

25:12So it probably will affect Zelensky's popularity, which is already declining. The idea of giving up territory, it would entail abandoning, let's say, Ukrainian people who live in the Russian-occupied territories. There have been lots of sacrifices of soldiers and civilians throughout the war. So for it to end on such a note will be a hard pill to swallow for a lot of Ukrainians. Among Russia's demands is that Ukraine holds presidential elections. Another tall order for Ukraine. Elections are a logistical challenge at the best of times. During war, they become an entirely different ballgame. Russia is not just after Ukraine's territory.