The right way to tax the rich. With Owen Zidar

0:01When you think of America's rich, you probably think of Silicon Valley billionaires or perhaps Wall Street bankers. But along with co-author Eric Zwick, economist Owen Zidar has unearthed a whole class of US millionaires hiding in plain sight, from car dealers to plumbing company owners, entrepreneurs who've made their extraordinary fortune from very ordinary businesses. That raises two big questions. What does it take to get rich in America? Hard work? A good business idea? Experience? Luck? And how much of these riches should the government be taking in tax? As America heads into the midterm elections and California votes on whether to ding billionaires with a tax on their wealth, what does it mean for the rich to be paying their fair share?

0:57This is The Economics Show with Zemea Keynes. And I'm joined today by Owen Zidar, co-author of Everywhere Millionaire, who is really rich in America and how they got there. Owen, hello. It's great to be here. OK, so on this show, we normally start with a very serious question where the answer has to be on a scale of 1 to 10. So on that very scientific scale, the question is, how alive is the American dream, right? So at a 10, it's in perfect health, right? If you work hard, you have great business sense, you have that entrepreneurial spirit, then you're going to get ahead. At a one, the American dream is dead, right?

1:36If you want to become rich in America, you have to inherit from your parents or you have to have a good tax lawyer or you just have to be very, very lucky. That's the scale. Where is America? Six. Oh, so close to the middle. Such a weaselly number. Six and a half, maybe. Part of the reason why I say that is if you look at Everywhere Millionaires, only a quarter inherited the business. Most of them either started it or acquired the business from somebody else. So that's why it's more than half. But there are other things to make you less optimistic about the share of people earning less than their parents.

2:11And so you can't go too far north. But the typical Everywhere Millionaire is from middle class or poor family. So, you know, maybe I can give you seven. Okay, seven I will accept is a hot take. um okay so you you think it's at a seven you have been talking about your book for a while now given all the conversations that you've had where do you think you are in your assessment relative to the average person that's a good question so i think you know if you look at the average person they're really distressed about how much prices have gone up it's really expensive to fill up your tank. It's really expensive to get health care.

2:51It's distressing to hear AI executives talk about how your job might not be there tomorrow. Against that backdrop, I think we are a bit more optimistic given the data we've been able to look at, because a lot of those experiences are very real. But when you look system wide at the share of people who have been able to come from modest backgrounds and actually get rich over a series of decades, it's, I think, a little more positive than people realize. And, you know, you kind of see it if you go around the country, you've been doing a book tour, and you look at nice mountain homes or nice lake houses, you're like, who owns that$4 million vacation house?

3:30And it's a lot of stories that aren't Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos, but it's ordinary people who've done extremely well running pretty mundane businesses. Okay, so maybe the average person is like a three, They think the American dream is in pretty poor state. But what you're saying is actually it is better than they think it's closer to seven. Don't try and change your number now. I won't. I won't accept that. OK, well, I want to dive into those millionaires in a minute. But first of all, I do want to just focus on the big guys. Right. So your billionaires, your Elon Musk, your Google co-founder, Sergey Brin.

4:06Do you care about those guys? Should we be concerned about them being quite so rich? I do care about them. I think it's fundamentally unfair that that group pays lower taxes than their employees. I feel like that's unreasonable. And we should do something about that. I also think it's important to recognize how much consumer surplus has been created by some of these founders. You know, before Elon Musk got us involved in politics, he was somewhat heralded for making big advances on electric vehicles and having a very impressive satellite network, which is a little too powerful now. But the fact that he's able to do that, I think, you know, suggests a pretty complicated subject where there's also some good.

4:55And, you know, we can't forget that there's a lot of consumer surplus. Amazon delivers a lot of packages to a lot of people at low cost. And that was really helpful in the pandemic. Now, that doesn't mean they treat every worker well or that we shouldn't do more and we shouldn't have a fair tax system. But I think it's dangerous to think that business owners are villains. There's a lot of good that also happens in the business community. And that's part of why America's economy is the envy of the world. And, you know, if you compare just the number of startups in the United States to in Europe, it's night and day.

5:34And we don't want to lose that because there's really stagnant productivity growth in a lot of Europe. And that's also very problematic, too. OK, I suppose it is complicated. Right. And as you said before, the public's perception of the American dream is somewhat different to yours. I suspect the public's perception of the wealth distribution is probably also a little bit off from what the reality is. How do you think that that misperception affects the debate about how to tax the mega rich? So when we wrote the book, we were trying to really improve people's understanding of wealth in America, that it's much more abundant and closer to home than concentrated in a small handful of people.

6:22And so there's a tendency right now in the tax debate to try to tax somebody else. It's like, oh, if you don't have a billion dollars, you don't have to contribute to the things that we've collectively decided to pay for. And I think that's a mistake. You know, I think my hope is that it will both inspire people to have a better understanding of who's really rich in America, but also give a better sense of where the tax base is to start contributing more broadly and moving beyond billionaires. Right. OK, so let's let's talk about the California wealth tax, which is going to be voted on along with the midterms.

6:56So that is a vote to apply a one off five percent tax on the 250 or so billionaires living in California. There are those in favor who are saying that these guys haven't paid their fair share and that, you know, all the warnings about this tax are completely overblown. And then there are those who are saying that if you apply it, well, you know, the mega rich people are going to move. That's actually going to lower your tax base. And then there is this risk that by implementing it, you are essentially punishing success and you could be deterring innovation. Where do you calm down in that discussion?

7:33Yes, I think there's a lot of people saying things with a lot of confidence. And this is a one-off tax. So we don't have a direct experience. And I think people should probably speak with a little bit more intellectual humility about what's going to happen. I think it's a step towards more fairness in the tax code in the sense that it is indeed the case that billionaires do pay a lower effective rate. I also think there are people who have left already. and I think the extent to which innovative activity is going to leave California is probably a bit overblown. You know, for example, the corporate tax in California has been very high and neighboring Nevada has a zero percent tax.

8:16That's been true for a long time, yet Silicon Valley has been operating in California and not in Nevada, despite the big tax difference. Now, I will say that there are a lot of issues with this specific tax. One is that it's a one time thing, which I think was a poll tested way to try to get it to have as high of approval. But you're not getting as much revenue because it's a one time thing. And, you know, I think ideally these things are done at a larger level where it's harder for people to move. Okay, I can I can see that the two handed economist is strong. But if you had to vote, how would you vote?

8:53I'm really torn about it. But, you know, I was going back and forth with my co author about this. And we were trying to figure out the right way to characterize things because, you know, you talk to some people and they'll say, look, this is on the side of making progress and this is feasible. But it's really not good on a number of fronts. And so it's it's tough. I no longer live in California, so I don't actually have to do it. But I think I would probably hold my nose and vote for it. Well, I appreciate you sharing that hypothetical vote. Let us move on now to your research looking at the merely very, very rich, the millionaires.

9:31In your book, you've got so many examples of who these people are and what they've done. Who were your favorite or perhaps most surprising examples? So one of the surprising people was Junior Bridgman, who had the first part of his career as the sixth man of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks. This is the professional basketball team in Milwaukee. and he didn't make his money as an NBA player. He made most of his money from owning Wendy's. And this is the fast food chain that is quite popular in America. And we found out about him from a story on ESPN where one of his former teammates was making fun of him for flipping Whoppers and collecting fries and wearing the full work pants.

10:16And he was like, why are you doing this? You're an NBA player. You know, what's going on? And I think Junior Bridgman had the last laugh. Because he became a multimillionaire. Because he owned enough Wendy's franchises that he actually, I think, cracked the billion dollar mark. That is not to be laughed at. And sort of more systematically, what are some of the more surprising patterns that you picked up in terms of what makes a millionaire and how riches are made? Yeah, so I think there are a couple main patterns. The first is that you need to be an owner rather than an earner. So if you look at the top of the income distribution, as you go at the 10th percentile, the vast majority of people are earning money from wages.

10:56If you go up closer to the top 1 % or 0.1%, it starts to switch where business owners are really the main story at the top of the income distribution. So that's the first thing. The second thing is that there is a sense in today's economy that you can build an app or get rich extremely quickly. And the typical everywhere millionaire takes decades. So it's a lot of like rolling up your sleeves, getting good experience. You know, we tell one story where the guy was a construction worker and then ended up building a realtor platform and is now the highest grossing realtor in America. And he sells three billion dollars of homes through his platform.

11:31Just makes it really easy to go from building a new home to selling it. And he lives in Texas and eats at a low key restaurant called Luby's. And if you ran into him at Luby's, you would not think he's clearing almost$100 million of income every year. Yeah, I mean, I suppose one of the patterns that struck me was this sense that you don't necessarily become a millionaire by going to an Ivy League university, getting straight A's and, you know, acing the academics, right? These other routes seem to be a bit more common. Yes. So the typical everywhere millionaire is 62, has a college degree and is married and is a white male.

12:11So they are, on average, college graduates. They don't typically have advanced degrees, but you're absolutely right. Like you don't have to be elite to be rich. So we have data on 10 million people who started new businesses. When you link them to their test scores, unlike other measures of success, like how much money you're going to make when you're 35, that's typically highly correlated with test scores. But if you look at entrepreneurial success, it's pretty flat. So somebody who has a median SAT score isn't that different in terms of the odds they start a star business than somebody who has a 1600.

12:46Hmm. Okay. So, you know, if little Billy is failing his exams, comfort him by saying, well, you could be the next. The next guy servicing the garage of your neighbor who just sold his business for$2 billion. His name's Tommy Mello. I don't know how Tommy Mello's test scores were, but, you know, Billy should have some comfort, like go to a nice lake and look at all the boats and say, like, who owns all those boats? And, you know, this stuff isn't obvious in the data, right? You had to do some pretty intense data work to even just see all of this. So I think it's really hard to know who's rich in America because public companies have to report, but private companies don't.

13:27So most people, when you have$10 million or$50 million or even$100 million, you just don't want to answer surveys. And the way that we could find out about this group is that we worked with the Treasury Department where the underlying sampling frame is every single business that files taxes in America. And it's de-identified and private and protected. So we can't look at individual owners. But what you can do is using the tax forms is link these businesses to the owners and find out a lot about wealth in America that wasn't previously available before. So you said the average millionaire is 62-year-old male, right?

14:06So it feels like you're observing people at the end of a journey. Have these millionaires become more common over time? Yes. So, you know, again, it's not average millionaire. It's average person with north of$5 million who owns a private business. And they are really increasing pretty rapidly in number. I think the number of centimillionaire business owners has quadrupled, even adjusting for inflation since 2000. And this has really boomed since the late 1980s when we had a tax reform that lowered individual income taxes. So it made being a private business owner where you have the profits and losses go through directly to the business instead of facing the traditional corporate tax.

14:49Right. So you're talking about pass through businesses, right? And so just breaking that down, these are businesses that are not taxed in the kind of your business, you make profit and you pay corporation tax on those profits. Instead, the profits sort of flow through and are treated essentially as income of the person owning the business, which means that they're taxed at a lower rate. and that has contributed to the massive escalation in people's wealth because they've got all this lovely income that is not taxed as high as it would be. Yeah, so it's like a slow avalanche where the snowball kind of grows and over decades that really has added up quite materially.

15:30And there have been other advantages that have been heaped on and usually we kind of clean up the tax code when these things happen and we really haven't had a major overhaul that's comprehensive since 1986. The nice thing as a researcher about pastures is that you can follow the money. And that let us say a lot of things. One, about how important this group was for the rise of inequality. So if you look at the rise in the top 1 % share, about half of that is coming from these private business owners. Secondly, we could learn a lot of things about entrepreneurship. So we looked at when all of these businesses started and then said, who are the founders?

16:04And then what are they like? How do you get more of them? And then you could also say, you know, when these firms do well, what does that mean for workers? Is that good for janitors at these companies or the median worker or is it mostly going to the top? And, you know, we've been working on these things for a decade and Everywhere Millionaire is one output of this, but we have a lot of research papers kind of underlying a lot of these things. You can't just tease those questions without giving us the answers. What do you find? Where do the gains go? So if you look at the overall size of the pie, in 2001, 37 % of it went to owners and the rest went to workers of these top-owned firms, private firms.

16:45And then if you look two decades later, it's about 50-50. And so there's been a very material change in the size of the pie that goes to owners. Some of that has come at the expense of workers. Some of that has come at the expense of the government in terms of lower taxes. But then there's also been growth in the pie from productivity growth. So productivity growth went from$34 ,000 per worker up to$52 ,000 per worker over this period. And if you would expect that to be split 50-50, that'd be$9 ,000 per worker to workers and$9 ,000 per worker to firm owners. And it actually has been$15 ,000 and$3 ,000,$15 ,000 to owners.

17:22Yeah. I mean, it sounds like maybe there should be a little bit less energy directed at taxing the billionaires and a little bit more directed at smoothing out some of the wrinkles in the tax approach to these millionaires. Somebody should really write a book about that. No, I think when you look at the numbers and what's happened, it's really hard not to think we need to broaden the aperture beyond billionaires. Take the collective wealth of this group. For everywhere millionaires, it's an order of magnitude more wealth than the richest 400 people. So if you look at the end of 2025, it's like$6 trillion for the Forbes 400 in terms of their collective wealth.

18:00And for everywhere millionaires, it's in the mid-60s. So it's just a way bigger tax base. And then if you look at recent policy changes, there have just been a number of pretty material tax cuts for this group. So right now, we're about to have millions of people lose their Medicaid because there is a trillion dollar tax cut that no one really likes to talk about. And that trillion dollar tax cut was largely not for billionaires, but for these pass-through owners who, instead of paying a 37 % top rate, they pay less than a 30 % rate. And that was quite expensive. And it's basically a big part of the reason why we had these Medicaid cuts was to pay for that.

18:39So if you were redesigning the tax system to just fix all of this, what would you do? So one of the proposals that we have is to roll back the individual income tax code to 1997. And that was a time when we had surpluses and not deficits. We had strong economic growth. And so it's not like a crazy level of taxation. But we'd raise trillions of dollars more by unwinding some of these things that we've given in the last few decades. I think you'd also want to have a higher corporate tax rate. You know, in 2017, we went from a pretty high statutory corporate tax rate down to 35 percent, down to 21 percent.

19:20And I think somewhere in the mid to high 20s is a reasonable place to end up. most other countries when they lower their corporate taxes, they introduce a VAT, a value-added tax. We have not done that, but that would be one thing to consider. And, you know, one hard thing is that a lot of the things I'm talking about are not the easiest to do politically. Even the easiest thing of rolling back that big deduction from 37 % to less than 30, even a lot of Democrats, when you talk to Senate staffers and congressional staffers are like, I don't know if that's going to go through. And you're like, come on, like, look at the evidence on this.

19:55There's very little investment. There's very little employment. And that's not the case with all tax policies. So some do more good than others. And we should reorient our system to have a results-based assessment where it's like, look, the big deductions for past year business owners are really not doing much other than increasing inequality and making the fiscal picture worse. That would be first to go on my list. Okay, but aren't the naysayers going to say that this could hurt innovation? Well, one striking thing about this group is that often they're not hugely innovative in the sense that they're putting a person on the moon or coming up with this new product.

20:36They're learning how to steam hot dog buns from somebody else who knows how to steam hot dog buns, or they're delivering a product and service in a reasonable way. And that is very valuable, but it's pretty incremental innovation. And I agree. I mean, I don't think you want to set a tax system that really discourages this type of activity. I think we want more millionaires and we want more people to have a shot at being a millionaire. But that doesn't mean you have to give away the store. And in 1997, I felt like it was a pretty good time for millionaires. And there's plenty of incentive to create these businesses and grow these businesses.

21:08And we collected a lot more tax revenue. Okay, well, let's cut to a break now. And when we get back, I want to ask you about how to make a millionaire. We're going to get Billy to riches.

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22:04We are back from the break. So let us now talk about making millionaires. Right. So this is this is a policy question. Right. Governments might be interested in fostering entrepreneurs. also some tiger parents out there who want little Billy to grow up to, you know, buy them a nice holiday home. How have you tried to look at the determinants of entrepreneurship and who goes on to become a millionaire? So I like that little Billy is back so I can give little Billy some advice. So what we did is we basically combined our business owner data set that we've been building for recent decades, this is me and Eric Zwick, with childhood background information that Raj Chetty and John Van Rienen and John's student, Gaia Dossi, who's now a really helpful co-author on this project, we combined their data together to be able to trace the full life cycle of entrepreneurs to figure out where they came from and kind of working backwards from the decision to found a business.

23:05You know, how much did their level of wealth matter in terms of being able to have enough capital to invest in the business or something earlier, like where did they start their careers? How important is their early labor market experience? Or even further back, you know, how important is where they grew up? And does it matter if you grow up in one place versus another? How does that affect your probability of being a star entrepreneur? So you're comparing the backgrounds of people who do and do not go on to become entrepreneurs. So in terms of your findings, then, what were you most surprised by?

23:38One of the most surprising things is that in contrast to all the emphasis to giving entrepreneurs money, we found that early career experience is a bigger driver of who becomes an entrepreneur and who becomes a successful entrepreneur. So figuring out how to enhance early labor market experience to put you in a job where you're likely to be a founder and 10, 15 years down the line, that mattered a lot more than how much money you had. right before founding. Okay, I want to take both of those two in turn. So you're saying that early career experience matters a lot, but how do you know it's the experience and not just say if you are a very entrepreneurial person, you will identify the sectors that could make you rich, right?

24:26So supposing you want to make a quick buck, maybe you today go to Silicon Valley, right? And that looks like a predictor of future success, but actually it's just a kind of selection effect. Yeah, so we can stick with the Silicon Valley example. And imagine in the big internet bubble, you compare two kids. I almost want to call one of them Billy. I won't. But one, he happened to be lucky because the bubble was still going and he grew up in the Bay Area and there was a lot of tech firms that were hiring at the time. And then you look at the other kid who was born one or two years later and the bubble had stopped and there just weren't as many tech jobs.

25:07And so the first kid, even though, you know, basically on measures of how entrepreneurial they are, you know, how smart they are, et cetera, they're very similar, but one had a chance to get pulled into this more entrepreneurial industry and the other one didn't. And so we do a local experiment like that in every local labor market where kids are 22 and look at what that means for their future success and future founding, and that's how we make a comparison that doesn't have the selection concern. Okay. So it does look like it is kids who have this exposure to up-and-coming industries, and that seems to be associated with the future success.

25:48Yes. And just to be clear, up-and-coming industries can be something pretty mundane. It can be like a construction boom or you work at an auto repair shop. and it just so happens that people who work at an auto repair shop are much more likely to go and be an owner by the time they're 40 or 45 than if you work at Ford or GM and you're working on the assembly line, even though they're pretty similar jobs. Okay, so now just going back to the other thing you said about money, capital, right? So you said that wasn't that important. Is that really true, though? Surely if you gave people a big lump sum, then that would increase the chances that they could start their own business.

26:27Yeah. So one, it is true that when you look in the data, surveys of small business owners, groups that probably have less access to capital do seem to have more signs of financial distress. So if you look at the probability you have credit card debt or you're taken out of mortgage, you see that more among women and minority entrepreneurs. but the basis for the statement I made is that we actually ran a pretty good experiment and what we did is we looked at every firm that did an IPO in America and looked at all the early employees and the basic idea is that you can compare employee number three or four to employee 30 and they're pretty similar employees but employee three or four has way more equity and so they get this big infusion of capital relative to employee 30 and the big wealth gains that come from the IPO, you can ask how much of that translate into future entrepreneurship.

27:26Now, this is a pool of relatively entrepreneurial people. You know, employee number 30 at a firm that does an IPO down the line is still has a lot of entrepreneurial potential, as does one of the other early employees. And you don't see much of a difference in the probability of founding a business afterwards. And so one has a lot more wealth and you don't see that translating. And then you can also look at other studies. So there's work that looks at lottery winners in the United States by Magne Mugstad and other co-authors, and they find pretty small, it's actually zero effects on entrepreneurship.

27:57But there's some other papers in the literature that are a little more optimistic on this. So my other co-author, Gabe Chudrow-Reich at Harvard has a paper about housing wealth where There is some link. So I'd say it's a little bit mixed, but I think our IPO experiment is a pretty cool one because, one, the size of the shock is really big. I mean, you can get a lot of money if you're one of the early employees, as you can see from the SpaceX or soon to happen Anthropik and other IPOs. You know, that really will move the housing market in California. And it's a lot of wealth, and we just didn't see a lot in terms of subsequent founding.

28:31So everyone hoping that there's going to be a wave of entrepreneurship with the anthropic IPO needs to calm down a bit. Well, there could. I mean, there was subsequent find, but not at differential rates, I should say. OK, so it helps, but it's not particularly helpful. It's not a key determinant. I think what really matters more is early labor market experience, getting exposure to learning how businesses work. What about other factors? So your parents, how common are nepo-preneurs? Yeah, so it's a very good way to get exposed to being an entrepreneur is through the household. I think you just get a taste for entrepreneurship.

29:03You learn what is possible. And you see a smaller version of that when you look across places. So some of the most entrepreneurial places to be born in America are places like Salt Lake City. And, you know, that's twice the rate if you were born in somewhere like Tennessee, for example. What about race and gender? How helpful is it to be a white dude? It is very helpful. Now, we did not really delve into that topic as much as we would like. We're hoping to do it in subsequent work. So we know some things. So we know that there are big differences in human capital accumulation. So women graduate college at a much higher rate than men now, especially in recent cohorts.

29:49And so if you think that the main driver of entrepreneurship is like how well educated people are, that doesn't really line up with the entrepreneurship data because despite women overtaking men in terms of college attainment, they're certainly not making that much progress on a share of women who are founders relative to the share of men who are founders. I suspect that a lot of what we saw in terms of early labor market experience is part of that story. We're coming to the end here, but before we finish, if someone came to you and said, what do I need to do to become a millionaire? What practical advice would you give them?

30:28So an ordinary millionaire, I would say save, put it in an index fund and make prudent decisions and kind of stay within your means and save a bit every year. As an employee. As an employee. If you actually want to get rich in terms of north of a million dollars, say$5 million or$10 million, the typical person is a business owner. And so the way you do that is you get some early career experience and maybe see somebody who is running a profitable business. It can be a boring business, but it's a profitable one. And they might want to retire. They might not want to give it to their kids. and I think there's a lot of opportunity right now because we have this generation of baby boomers.

31:09They have a limited number of years where they still want to be running these businesses and maybe you could shadow them for a few years and say, hey, how about I buy this business from you and run it when you're done and in exchange you'll get some share of the profits of the business for the next five to 10 years. It's called seller financing and I think that's a pretty attractive way to actually make a lot of money and be an owner rather than an earner. Has it become harder to become a millionaire over time? It's really hard to answer that scientifically. So we have this data. And because it takes a long time to become a millionaire or an everywhere millionaire business owner in their 60s, it's hard to see snapshots of that evolving.

31:52But anecdotally, we tell stories like Dick Portillo, who made a billion dollars selling hot dogs. And you might say, well, that was a long time ago. But there are also stories you can tell that are more recent, like Dave's Hot Chicken or Raisin Cane's. Those are kind of more recent in the similar vein of ordinary people selling basic, very tasty food. So I think it still is possible, but it's hard to know for sure because it's a long process and it's hard to get enough data to look over decades. You've written a lot about the American dream. So now let's think about the European dream and how to get more of that.

32:29I feel like right now maybe the European dream is having a lovely holiday. But if the Europeans wanted to emulate the American dream, what would your practical advice be? I think one concrete thing is having less stigma for failure. When you talk to folks in Europe about trying to start a business that doesn't work, there's a sense that this person failed in the United States. people forget about that. And you see many people who try several times and people forget. And so one piece of advice, I think, is to have a shorter memory and less stigma for trying and not having it work. Are there any lessons that we shouldn't learn from America's experience when it comes to policy?

33:11Yes. If you look over the last few decades, we've really cut taxes quite materially at the top and not gotten a lot for it. So I think you can go too far doing this as well. Okay. Owen, that is a good note to end things on. Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you for having me.

33:49with original music and sound design from Breen Turner. Our executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. I'm Samaya Keynes. Thanks for listening.

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