Man Utd’s Big Dilemma | The Football Boardroom

0:28We always recommend Shopify. I'm Christian Purslow and I'm Henry Winter I've run three of the country's leading football clubs and I've spent the past 40 years knocking on boardroom doors I'm going to take you behind the scenes and behind the headlines this is football as you've never seen it before welcome to the football boardroom so Christian we're finally here after the longest pre-season in history six months we've been doing pilots and being prepared for the football boardroom Yeah, it's time to cross the white line, make our debut. And yeah, I feel quite nervous, actually. Well, there's no need to be nervous because there's never been a more important time to focus on the boardroom.

1:10I mean, my phone's been going off earlier and earlier every morning like an ACAT battery as we've been flipping messages. Yeah, I was just looking at literally last few weeks stories in the boardroom. Amarin Mareska pot shots at owners get fired Glasner pot shots at owners keeps his job transfer window up and running Gehi Semenya going to Man City while most of football is wondering where's the court case and when's that coming yeah there's plenty for us to shine a light on so let's get cracking good weekend very good weekend actually I was at Arsenal watching Arsenal against Manchester United and Christian you know how much noise there is in the football at the moment.

1:53Well, there's always noise in football. You've worked in it long enough and I've covered it long enough. But the sound that we're really hearing at the moment is a bandwagon accelerating. And the bandwagon has Michael Carrick for Manchester United manager. And obviously there's a, with those two results, the result against Manchester City and then the result at the weekend in this game against Arsenal. He outwitted Pep, He outwitted Mikel Arteta. He's brought a bit of the sort of the warmth and the identity and the DNA and a bit more tactical now and suitability back into the Manchester United team since Ruben Amarin.

2:32I mean, we've talked about Ruben Amarin many times sort of swapping messages and how we felt he was ill suited. And then Michael Carrick steps in and does really well. So where are we at now? If you are Jim Ratcliffe and Omar Barada and Jason Wilcox, you've been in this position in the boardroom looking at a manager. Should he be caretaker? Should it be long term? What's your thinking process? Well, the first thing to say is the stakes are incredibly high here, by which I mean at a purely financial level, money. Radcliffe's maybe two years into his regime. He's bought a minority stake in the club for about one and a quarter billion pounds, well over double what what top oldies group paid for Chelsea.

3:22For that valuation to be justifiable, in other words, for any prospect for Radcliffe and his people to make a profit on their investment in Manchester United in the long run, or even to justify the investment to date, two things have to happen now at Manchester United. They have to get back to a world where they are competing every year to win the Premier League and they are going deep in the Champions League. Why is that? Well, it's to do with the financial effects of on-field performance and just how material they are for the first time. Throw some numbers at me. What are we looking at financially?

4:00Well, for the first time in a long time, Manchester United has the fourth highest turnover in English football. I never thought I would utter that sentence, about£665 million. Arsenal now over£700 million. Manchester City three years have been over£700 million. Liverpool now touching the£700m mark. And despite the fact that Manchester United remains the largest team in commercial income, the largest team in matchday income, they are now about£100m below those three key rivals. Why? It's pure maths. Last year, they went to the final of the Europa League. They made about£30m from that journey. Arsenal went to the semi-final of the Champions League and made£100 million.

4:49So there's a 70 difference. And then within the Premier League, Manchester United finished 15th, Arsenal, I think, second. So those 13 places,£3 million at place, £39 million,£39, plus that£70 million. There's your£110 million difference between Arsenal and Man United in one season from on-field performance. So, as I say, the stakes now on this managerial appointment are how does Radcliffe secure a permanent manager who over, let's say, a reasonable three-year term gets Manchester United back to those two key outcomes of success in the Premier League and the Champions League to recover that£100 million of lost revenue that right now puts them in grave danger of being uncompetitive.

5:42in the crucial market for footballing talent. We'll have a look at who could be the possible permanent managers. But in terms of the decision they've made at the moment, putting Michael Carrick, obviously a club legend, five titles, scored, converted one of the penalties in the Champions League final, absolutely adored by the fans. He actually went and stood with the fans in one game at Turf Mour and started one of the chants. His son's at the academy, he's very embedded in the club emotionally. is their thinking very straightforward in the short term do you think that he is a a caretaker look the caretaker to permanent issue has hung over football for some time i can't see a scenario here where um where you mentioned a bandwagon you mentioned emotion two fantastic wins and performances under michael since you're not big on emotion though You bring it down to money.

6:38I bring it down certainly to rationality. And I do not believe that Jim Radcliffe's people or Jim himself will be tempted into an early conversion of Michael into the permanent role. They simply don't need to do that. Michael, to the end of the season, will have played 17 matches. That's a decent body of work to assess his performance. And why would you make a decision earlier than you need to? So my strong view, I'm quite certain about this, is that the decision to appoint a permanent manager will be made at the end of this season, not during this, however well Michael does in the intervening period.

7:19And so that's how I think we should be talking about what it looks like at the end of the season. That makes sense. And I can understand why they're doing it. And it's interesting, this weekend there are fans' protests planned before the Fulham game. And they are upset as a group of fans, or probably many fans, obviously very upset about the Glazers' ownership over the past 21 years and the way they've run the club. But also with Ratcliffe and Ineos, and the heat has been cranked up a little bit on them. Actually, this protest comes at a time when, probably in the eyes of the fans and many observers, They've made the right decision and not simply because he's won those two games.

7:59But Michael Carrick is a calm character. He will guard Old Trafford for this period. But take me into the boardroom. You've lived in boardrooms, Liverpool, Chelsea and Aston Villa. You've appointed managers. How does it work if you've got Sir Jim Ratcliffe, presumably, at the head of the table? You might have the glazers on a screen. You've got Omar Barada, the chief executive, and Jason Wilcox, the technical director. Right now, I think Omar Barada's job will be to be thinking through different scenarios. And again, I think as we look forward to that moment at the end of the season, that critical moment, as I've said, when the stakes are high and frankly, Ineos, contractually in charge of football decisions at Manchester United, despite being the minority shareholder to the Glazers have to get this one right.

8:52Having, you know, extended Eric Ten Hag, that didn't work out. Having appointed Ruben Amarin, that didn't work out. The next permanent appointment has to be right, given the stakes that I've set out on here. And so I think we can anticipate maybe three scenarios. and this is how I'd be thinking about it today if I was Omar. I think on a high case scenario, let's be clear, if Michael wins every game to the end of the season, that's 15 wins from now, that will have been 17 wins, 83 points, that's normally second in the Premier League, 25 wins over a season. I think Alec Ferguson did that six times over the history of his phenomenal regime.

9:36Michael's getting the job if he wins nearly every game. end of discussion your word the bandwagon would be irresistible and he will have earned that on merit and that's a head decision as much as a heart decision there's just there's just it's the easiest decision in the world he's in the building hugely popular and he will have achieved an absolutely spectacular improvement in this team's performance with no change to the personnel going the other way Henry honest opinion on low case scenario I think if Manchester United don't make Europe from the position they found themselves in. Europe or the Champions League?

10:11I think, well, certainly Europe. Actually, the Champions League. I think if they missed the Champions League, I just laid out to you, the Europa League v. the Champions League, that's a£70 million miss. Is it Champions League or bust for Carrick? I think if he missed the Champions League, he's not getting the job and we're into a recruitment process at the end of the season. What's fascinating for me sitting here, and I'd love your view on this, is that middle road scenario. Let's paint a picture where, for the rest of the season, he does pretty well. They win maybe half the games, a couple of draws, lose four or five games, some good performances, some bad ones, a bit like Ruben and Eric's tenure.

10:49You know, there've been some high points, but some low points. But given this year looks like being a lower points total requirement and given it looks almost certain fifth place gets the Champions League. Let's say they just scrape into the Champions League in the mid low 60s points total. That's the scenario I think we should think through. As we stand today, what I'm hearing is that the gist of the board's view is that inevitably, like the fans, they're absolutely delighted that he's bought some calm and some composure. That he's not going mad in press conferences because that is not Michael's style.

11:28And it's a welcome antithesis to what went before with Ruben Ameren, who became over-emotional and perceived by some, certainly in the dressing room, as a little bit aloof and detached. And I think there must have been a disappointment in the boardroom over the playing style and obviously the results as well and his demeanor towards the end of it. And the attack on the board at the end was basically a fire me note. would you have fired him absolutely at that moment yeah i think he didn't he left the board no choice really at that point but but you're you're you know michael well in that scenario i've painted where it's been a decent second half of the season all those positives you've laid out is he in the frame at the end of the season he's absolutely in the frame and look i mean full transparency you know i spent a year with michael carrick helping him write his book got to know him well and he's a fascinating individual I mean this whole image of him as being very calm, I read in one piece that he was slightly drab, I mean that's just the opposite of the Michael Carrick that the players will know you saw the way he was celebrating at Arsenal with the individual players, with a player like Cunha who was on the bench, with Seshko who was on the bench, these are big name players who would be expecting to be starting but they can see the effectiveness of what Carrick has done, playing Bruno Fernandes in his best position, giving Kobe Mainu just an absolute new lease of life when everyone thought he was out the building and his half-brother was wearing a T-shirt saying free Kobe Mainu under Ruben Amarit.

13:12So you know what I'm like. I always try to play the emotional card because I think football is so much about emotion as well as your side of the board. And you like the player and you like the man. I like the man. And I just think, and having spent time with him, and this is everyone saying, well, should you have a legacy player stepping in? This means such a debate in football. And it annoys me because it slightly ignores what Barcelona have done. You look at Barcelona, they've always appointed or frequently appointed legends. From within. Whether it was a Cruyff or a Pep or a Xavi, Enrique. I think it's quite an underrated criteria.

13:45I'd like to say, quick shout out here. I won't get distracted, but quick shout out. Brentford when they hired Keith Andrews this season I didn't read a single positive article about that appointment when it was announced but Matthew Benham passionately believes on the merits of recruiting from within they believe they have a very specific culture a very specific management system policies and procedures in that building and somebody who's been there and is comfortable in and around that system of management is more likely to succeed than outside of coming in. So let's talk about the criteria that I think would be applied by the board as they evaluate their permanent candidate.

14:30You have such a forensic mind. This is peak personal. Well, you've opened with, I think, a criteria. Let's call it fit, cultural fit. And I think that has two components. fit with knowledge of familiarity with the culture and DNA of Manchester United. And that's very easy to see the attraction of why that would be an important criteria. But closely related to that fit is also fit with the new management structure at Manchester United, which for our listeners benefit is with Radcliffe and Ineos as the effective decision maker owner but with a chief executive in Omar Barada and a sporting director in Jason Wilcox that's the triangle of power that the new manager will have to work with so fit is the first criteria and you tell me the standout candidate for that criteria because maybe if we match candidates to criteria, we'll get a sense of the runners and riders.

15:34Well, Carrick is the obvious fit for that and from his early days at West Ham United as an apprentice sweeping the away dressing room at Upton Park when he saw Manchester United players walk in and he saw Roy Keane in his blazer and Sir Alex Ferguson walking in, the two of them looking like they absolutely owned the place and they occasionally did and he was just absolutely smitten, the authority of it. So Michael has Manchester United absolutely imbued 300 odd games won everything yeah absolutely he's absolutely embedded there but coming back to your point about cultural fit Carrick obviously suits that in terms of the playing style they've been there before by the way with Oli well this is the key thing and this is a question that a lot of people are throwing almost to use as a stick to beat Carrick's case and to sort of throw some road bumps in front of the in front of the bandwagon in that But Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was appointed as a caretaker, did very well as a caretaker.

16:3613 games, 1-11, I think. Yeah, I can remember talking to you. I was out in Paris when Marcus Rashford scored that late penalty in 2019. I think it's been slightly harshly characterised as an emotional reaction to a magical moment. A last 16 win in the Champions League to turn around the tight against PSG. We'll always have Paris. Yeah, but someone... rightly pointed out you'd have to have had a seriously cold heart to not react that way but i think sitting now you know head and heart you and me bored um the emotion do you think that we can look back on his permanent reign as a success well third second change the mood around the place those are good those now look like good finishing positions they do and i'll flip this back to you But by the way, they lost, you know, the next round.

17:30They got pretty well turned over by Barcelona in the quarterfinal and never went deep in the Champions League again under Oli. And remember my two key metrics, first or second in the Premier League. This is Manchester United deep in the Champions League. Money, money, money. I don't think on those two key metrics you could say Oli Gunnar's reign was a success. But I think one thing that, I mean, fans have been mentioning this, and I think is absolutely paramount of importance that has to be mentioned, is that there's a different structure, football structure, which you've just laid out in terms of Ratcliffe, Barada, Wilcox, than Olly Goodasol-Shahad, which was basically Ed Woodward and players who he might not have wanted.

18:11He apparently wanted to bring Harland in. He was interested in Declan Rice. And you see how their careers have developed. He was certainly linked with the possibility of wanting those two to come to Manchester United in particular. And he obviously got Ronaldo in and did that cramp their style. Ronaldo, magnificent player. And the numbers are always good. Your beloved metrics were good. But was he more about selling shirts or was it about sort of taking and developing the team? That's a very interesting question. And of course, he had Pogba as well. So I think when everyone's making this comparison between, oh, it'll just be another Oli.

18:47Actually, it's a different structure that this caretaker in Vertical is walking into. Well, I like the fact that you are accepting that the management structure is now a key success factor in any well-run club. And I'm saying that on that first criteria, let's summarise, fit with the management structure and the DNA. Michael, now in post as caretaker, is absolutely the go-to candidate to tick that box. Let's talk about some other criteria that get talked about a lot, actually, and maybe more in the context of Man United than anybody else. Playing style. this will be on the checklist when wilcox is presenting candidates to um to ratcliffe and barada don't you think it's important don't you think a club's dna is important you worked at liverpool yeah dna dna culture history familiarity playing style is part of that i mean i turn it back to you you know who if manchester united decide that you know flying wingers attacking football from Georgie Best, Andre Kanchelskis, Ryan Giggs type football, turning round, you know, Fergie Time winners, all that just we all associate with the glory years.

20:06Who'd be in the frame and what are the issues with playing style? One very obvious candidate, Andoni Areola. I just think the way that he plays, obviously you will look as a boardroom habituee at the way that he develops players and the good recruitment and how isn't he just the latest reuben amarin he's just the latest hot property possibly but i think he would come in and he wouldn't impose an alien playing style i three four two one well that's interesting so so bring let's come back to with our boardroom we're in may um and playing style gets put as a relevant criteria would amarin be um seen as a cautionary tail on getting the playing style wrong so does that mean they're likely to bounce to somebody where they feel the playing style will be more attractive yeah absolutely and there's another element on that is that the reason why they haven't acted to get a permanent at the moment is that and this was something that amarin said is that it was a bit difficult for him coming in mid-season i think if you're going to get a new man in it has to be someone who comes in in the summer yeah i'm coming back to iraola i want to talk about that attacks iraola attacks you look at that team they go again and again and again even when they've had a bad run of games you just know I will watch Bournemouth games on the television because I know I'm going to get a good game I agree with you they've sold so many and they keep attacking I agree with you some might say it's reckless attacking football because there's a lot of they're a 3-2 sort of team aren't they but sorry reckless you call it reckless I would call it entertaining I would look at it from the fans perspective if I'm going into their stadium Vitality aptly named I want to be entertained they're getting fantastic entertainment.

21:50OK, well, I'm happy to accept that he would be very high up any list this summer because he's out of contract. And if playing style, attacking football, he's definitely on that list. Would you look at a personality? Would you think, has he got the personality to take that step up? Because Amarin ultimately didn't. Thomas Frank, we can argue it's a step up and it's maybe a little bit too much. Good question. That leads to my third criteria. OK, so DNA, familiarity with Manchester United happy working in the regime one playing style two your question on Areola leads me straight into the third criteria that will be on any boardroom presentation by any sporting director to his owner and chief executive and that is track record which means it means two things closely related.

22:44It means, and this is as true in the business world as it is in the sporting world. As you know, I come from the business world originally. Relevant and recent experience, meaning in football terms, in the two key competitions that we identified right at the start today as being the metrics of success, Premier League success, League football in other words champions league success european football cup football so a demonstrable track record in those two competitions is what i would mean and and so not just years on the clock experience but successful years on the clock and that means ultimately winning to flavor it for pep guardiola um he's not going to mention he's won 15 league titles or champions leagues carlo ancelotti's won 11.

23:38Luis Enrique's won six. Zinedine Zidane's even won five. Jose Mourinho, 11. Those are demonstrable track record type candidates. And I can't help but notice that some of those names, certainly Ancelotti and Thomas Tuchel, who's got four on that metric, by the way, are out of contract at the World Cup this summer. So track record will be in that room as a And I would argue on that metric, and maybe this is my point, Henry, that it's really difficult to find my three criteria in one candidate. I mean, you tell me. I mean, they have been there. Yeah, I mean, I love the big beasts. They're great for headlines.

24:21And they have this, as you say, an incredible track record. But look at Manchester United's recent history, certainly in the first Ferguson era. Jose Mourinho fabulous track record battle hardened Premier League ready knew everything about opposition knew everything about the Premier League and okay you know he got a European trophy a League Cup I think a Community Shield as well but it didn't necessarily end that well Van Gaal I mean I was there in Vienna in in 95 when he won what are people in Man United saying about the I mean you've mentioned in Jose. I mean that. You love Jose so you're backing.

25:03I do. And let me just say why. I say why because actually I think this is a really interesting comparison. You know when I worked at Chelsea this, me the three criteria I've set out as what I expect to be on the table in front of Jim Radcliffe in May in Chelsea under Romano Abramovich there's one criteria. Winning i.e. track record. He's not worried about whether the person you know has a deep knowledge of Chelsea's history and knowledge or DNA. Playing style. And by the way, the management structure is you do what you're told and you win or you're out. So there's none of that stuff. And playing style, yes, but win, win, win.

25:41Look at the name, Mourinho, Ancelotti, Conte. So he's shopping at Harrods. Absolute clarity on his business strategy and football strategy. Track record, I want winners. I can tell you, you know, if I had been second in a commercial outcome, I'm out the door. You know, the whole culture of the place was win, win, win. And by the way, he did in under his period of ownership. They won more trophies than anybody. How does that relate to you in terms of you have to win? Otherwise, you're out the door. You don't. He never had to utter a word. He famously never gave an interview. He's a very quiet and private man.

26:18Everybody in that football club from Cobham to Stamford Bridge knew that that was the metric. because actions speak louder than words. People who came second lost their job. Some people who won lost their job. So that is a fascinating comparison to Manchester United this summer, where I think we both feel these other two criteria will be relevant. But so, yes, and Jose epitomised he had won a Champions League with Porto. So despite being young, he was the special one. He'd won a Champions League at a young age with a club that wasn't established as a serial Champions League winner. That would have attracted Romain's interest.

26:55But the point I'm making is that big beasts don't necessarily... But is Jose a success at Manchester United? I can't. I mean, I've heard both cases. Yeah, both cases. I'm just trying to say that actually, is there an ideal candidate? I doubt that the so-called big beasts you've labelled will score highly on the criteria of working with your Wilcox's and your Baradah's in a seamless way. compared to, for example, the way Michael will, or maybe even a young and up-and-coming head coach like an Iriola would. That's intriguing, isn't it? And so then we're getting into a situation where there are, to use the business word, trade-offs between these candidates.

27:41It's interesting, in 2015, when they did this questionnaire with Michael Carrick, as he was considering going into coaching, they actually looked at the conclusion was that he would make a good coach he would make a good manager because of that collaborative element because he could coach he could train he did it with warmth but he did it in a very sort of good communicative way and with a sort of the collaborative is very much and I think that's what Manchester United need Of the three who's making the decision? Well I think they'll all have a role to play Let me just throw in two other factors into the criteria before we talk about the decision makers themselves.

28:22One that I think jumps off the page. Money again? Money. It always comes back to money with you. Money, power, politics. Look, let me turn it around. You've been much closer to this than me. You talk to people in and around the game. you know what's the reputation of the regime at mansard united for spending money and in recent times uh they haven't spent it well and they still have a stigma attached to them because the way they laid off so many people okay yes you mean non-footballing people football people and then you go and have this huge compensation element i mean how many jobs could that have saved if they'd actually made the right decisions anyway tell me back to money well okay so so my point is this one, that when we look at those three criteria and we look at those profile candidates, I think it's very, very clear that there will be a wide range in salary, cost and requirements associated with those different types of candidates.

29:26Michael, as we've said, let's call him the continuity candidate, the candidate who most fits with the culture of the club playing style and happens to be in post michael's last full employment was at middlesbrough uh in and did very well initially um middlesbrough a club perennially challenging to be promoted a very very experienced ownership group well run very well run championship you like gibson don't you i like gibson i like the club and it looks like you know touchwood this season they're right in the frame but it didn't happen for michael we lost some important players at key moments also true but um here's my carry i'm making a basic money point michael's salary in the championship as an up-and-coming championship manager would have been somewhere in the high hundreds of thousands i'm going to guess 700 to 800 000 pounds maybe with a big bonus for promotion to the premier league half a million pounds or maybe double your salary so maybe one to one and a half million in a brilliant year but a salary of 800 000 pounds and Michael's been publicly linked with other jobs in the championship since he lost his job at Middlesbrough.

30:37I think he was in the frame at Southampton. These jobs are£700 ,000,£800 ,000 jobs and he was out of work and he gets the call to be the caretaker manager of Man United. I don't know. I'd love you to take a guess. But Michael, will you look after the club for the rest of the season? What are you going to pay me? Well, you know... I bet that wasn't his first question. I think Michael would have done it for nothing. Okay. You know, he's man you through and through. I'm exaggerating, but I don't think, I agree with you. It wouldn't have been about the money. Now, if you're Barada and Wilcox, how do you handle that?

31:16Do you exploit that? No, that's unreasonable. But equally, if you made me absolutely guess, I don't know, maybe a million and a half salary equivalent, You know, kind of what you got at Middlesbrough in a promotion year, twice what you were getting at Middlesbrough for the rest of the season. And, Michael, you're going to be in the frame for, you know, the full-time job if it goes well. Oh, and by the way, I would think a very good bonus for qualification for Europe. So what's the average of the Premier League on? Because we always, as readers and journalists, we hear these figures. Much more than that.

31:50Much more than that. I think, you know, top-end. Top-end Pep. What's Pep on? Over£20 million a year and I think probably nearer£25 million. I know you're grinning and I know for our listeners' benefit, I'm sorry if we throw these numbers around like Monopoly. But you asked me the question. I think the range is very top end. We're in the 20s for Pep. Who's next, Unai? Jürgen, before he left, would have been touching 20. Unai won't be far off that now. And at the low end, even these days, you know, you're talking the low end of the Premier League. I mean, managers coming out of the championship probably take a year or two to get reset, but into the kind of four, four, five range.

32:35So Michael right now will be very modestly paid to be a caretaker relative to, for example, what Ruben Amorim would have been paid for the full time job, which I think would have been six or seven million pounds all day. now we we we come through to the summer the big beasts you've talked about any one of those names Tuchel, Ancelotti, even Pochettino who doesn't tick the trophy winning box but is widely considered to be a big beast he did win a league title in France so he's got one and he went to a Champions League final with Spurs too and the media love him and he's got years on the clock of Premier League and League football so he's a hybrid big beast got to a Champions League final that's what Yeah, that's what I'm saying.