Transfer window deep dive | The Football Boardroom

0:26The top 10 deals. deals were£100 million plus deal. And you are the perfect person to have opposite me because you started it. You started the 100 Club with Jack Grealish going, was it four or five years ago, going from Aston Villa to Manchester City. And then what do I also see last night watching you over your shoulder is images of Jack Grealish going back into Everton on loan.

0:58Henry:Yeah, you're quite right. I was pretty proud of that deal all those years ago. It was a British record and felt like a good price. And I probably wouldn't have predicted it would become a mainstream price in the transfer markets in the Premier League. And I think we should look at it as really a feature of a very interesting set of circumstances that seem to be developing at Everton Football Club. And I don't know what you felt. I've just sensed a sort of bit of trouble at Mill recently. You know my obsession with sort of strategy, people and the finances, SPF, to try and unpick what owners and executives are trying to do with their investments in a football club.

1:48Henry:And the P bit of that, the people bit of that, the key working relationships, manager, sporting director, owner, chief exec. I sense a bit of trouble. Am I imagining that? You're not imagining it at all. I mean, you've only got to look at social media. you've only got to look at the reaction of Everton fans. Obviously, at the weekend, singing that they were going to start a riot, if Harrison Armstrong, this very highly admired 19-year-old midfielder, was sold to Nottingham Forest for£40 million. Because where is the hope? Where is the future? If you're selling a player who is homegrown, born in West Derby, not great for David Moyes from a footballing perspective, as well as from the fans' emotional perspective.

2:32The Freakin, the Freakin group, the owners, as the fans were going freaking crazy over it, the Freakin group themselves, they sensibly pulled the plug when they saw the reaction. But the reaction again last night as you were sitting the oasis of calm on that sofa, the reaction around Finch Farm, the reaction on Merseyside from Everton fans to this transfer window, effectively leaving them with only one centre forward when the Balogun deal fell through and with Njai, their best player, being sold. And remember, this comes a fortnight after the Everton CEO, Angus Kinnear, had given an interview with BBC Radio Merseyside in which he said, look, it was bitterly disappointing the way the season ended.

3:20Everton didn't win any of their last seven games. So he was referring to that. But he also said it's important we retain players like Njai, who's now been sold for$65 million, which is probably quite short-priced in the current transfer market. So look, you've been in that situation as a chief executive. You understand this SPF as you see it. Do you sense some, there must be some tension, obviously between the club and the fans at the moment, but also between the club and a highly respected manager in David Moyes? Yeah, I don't think David took particularly kindly to his homework

3:59Henry:being scored as a bitterly disappointing. He made some reference, I think, to the fact that that was kind of news to him. so I definitely sense a little bit of trouble there and there's nothing like a kind of deadline day cock up and that's the most generous way to look at it to really pick at those key working relationships when things go well there's a queue of people in football clubs trying to take credit but when a signing falls over I mean I went into Sky at 10 o 'clock last night for the last hour of the window and in that hour up to Big Ben striking I was watching the on-off saga around the Balogun move to Everton and it's a really sorry look and you started by referring to Jack's loan and you've also referred to the Ndai departure if we take those in around I think There's some worrying, very worrying signals there that I think we should home in on.

5:04Henry:The fact that on the last day of the window, deadline day, you know my views that it is a very risky time to be doing business. It's fine doing odds and sods, loose ends, getting your squad players that you've all agreed weeks ago are going to leave the building off and on loan. That's a natural business to do right at the end. But when you haven't got a centre forward to replace a departed centre forward, Beto's gone and you leave that deal to the last day of the window, that's risky. OK, throw in the fact that this guy, we believe, failed a medical tells me that somebody in that hierarchy, somebody in the recruitment department hasn't done their homework early enough.

5:53Henry:and it's not to me a coincidence that, you know, let's be really frank about Jack coming back on loan. Jack hasn't played football other than a cameo in the Community Shield for City for over seven months. It was after a great couple of months when he arrived at Everton, everyone, me included, were thrilled to see him back starting football matches in the Premier League and really exciting Everton and the Everton fans. And I couldn't have been happier for him. But it was a very nasty injury. It was a disastrous injury for him because he was trying to get back in the frame for England. And the facts are that apart from City, sticking him on the pitch for a few minutes in the community shield, which seemed to be saying, come and get him.

6:43Henry:He's all right. I noticed he didn't get many minutes in the Premier League after that. I think that is pretty risky business I understand he had lots of clubs looking at him Henry and City are very firm on their financial requirements this is a boy making the best part of 300 grand a week in the final year of a six year contract and they're looking for clubs to say we'll pick up most of your wages on a guaranteed basis and then top up to get us all our money back on an appearance basis I'm guessing, I am guessing maybe 200 to 300 grand a week guaranteed and then another 100, maybe another 50 grand in appearance.

7:27Henry:So they get most of his wages back. That's what City would have wanted. Lots of people would have liked to take a nibble at Jack, but most of them would have said, we'll pay as we play. He presumably would have had another medical. yeah well he had one yesterday and um and again i don't like deadline day medicals i really don't because what happens is if it's like uh you know we've all we've all done it we all go and see the doctor it's like lawyers you get you get gray feedback you don't always get black and white feedback looks all right but bit iffy here bit iffy there and on deadline day the problem is with time pressure weighing heavily with a big gap if we don't do this deal in my personal experience standards get compromised risks get taken at the margin that you end up regretting later i hope and believe jack's fine i uh i've got no reason to doubt that he'll be fine but the facts are I think Jack's arrival as an injured player recovering as their targeted centre forward Balogun who has failed a medical to me two key signings on deadline day of players where there is an injury issue that compounds the risk and smacks to me of question marks about the process And the other feature of this that I don't like is, as you say, by common consensus, their player of the year, Ndai, last year, who they said they wanted to keep, nobody wants to sell their best player, ends up going to City.

9:09Henry:There was a bit of a tug of war. I understand other clubs wanted to buy the boy. He had a great season, looks an excellent prospect. But I think probably City being able to offer Jack as part of that deal helped them get Ndai. And this is the bit I don't like. Probably upped the ante, particularly after the interlude with the academy player you've referred to, where fans aren't just complaining. Fans are threatening to riot and an owner reverses an agreed sale. That's not an everyday occurrence in English football. Fans are unhappy all the time. But fans saying, sell that player and we're going to make your life misery.

9:50Henry:That's quite extreme. The owners reverse out of that H. And I think, and then they're thinking, Christ, we're going to sell Ndai our best player. We need to give the fans something they like. And I think that just probably shifted the balance to let's get Jack back. He's exciting. He's a fantastic fella. The fans like him. Maybe that mitigates some of the issues with the fans. I don't like any of those aspects to this overall puzzle. CP, take me into the boardroom and let's just see if we can see it from Kinnear and the board's perspective. With Balogun, was there an element of, he failed the medical, but actually, because they rushed it, as you say, it's on the last days, had 79 days to prepare for this.

10:34Obviously, there was a World Cup in the middle of it, which would obviously sort of delay things like that. But if it was just a niggle, couldn't they have done some deal, which actually then, whether it was a loan until January and then a sort of obligation to pay then if he played a certain amount of games?

10:55Henry:Look, I think that the point about the last minute aspect to this business for Everton is that when it goes wrong, you really do have limited room for manoeuvre. what actually happened was that they clearly had a problem with the medical i would argue in the conversations leading up to yesterday they should have known there was a risk of that at a minimum um they bounced on to trying to take xerxi out of manchester united you know on the last night of the window after a long time man united said no tammy abraham they had a look at okay so so and then when neither of those were feasible, they appear to have bounced back to, can we do Balogun on a different basis?

11:41Henry:And the good news for Everton was that they somehow persuaded Monaco to recut that deal. So we know they agreed. We don't know what those changes were. We don't even know whether it was a transfer or, as you suggest, whether they said, how about we loan him until January? And if he plays minutes, plays a certain number of games, we have to buy him on the same terms in January. That's the deal I would have done. OK, I certainly wouldn't have said, look, at 40 with an injury, we don't fancy. But at 30 with an injury, we do. For me, you're either injured or you're not. I don't think that goes to a price reduction.

12:17Henry:But we don't know. We also don't know whether they tried to modify the terms with the player in any way, shape or form. But what we do know is it was the player who pulled the plug on the deal. He didn't like the feeling. He's sitting there getting his dream move to the Premier League, expecting to start Everton this weekend. He's getting told by Everton's backroom staff, there's something here we don't fancy on the medical. He just didn't like the feeling. He pulled the plug. Either way, they're left high and dry in the centre forward department. And I think when you compare that, and this is something that must be starting to really become into focus with the Everton fans, who I know well.

12:58Henry:You compare to Roma, by common consensus, they've had a great window. Also owned by the Freakins. Also owned by the Freakins before they bought Everton. So this kind of multi-club model and question marks about where their priority lies. Well, all I would do is contrast the strategic approach at Roma, the approach to finances, the approach to relations with the manager at Roma to where we are with Everton. Gasparini, you know, it's quite clear that Chelsea really fancied a Roma star midfielder to replace Fernandes. Kone, again, highly regarded central midfield player. Gasparini, head coach at Roma, says, no thanks, this boy's not going anywhere.

13:40Henry:Freakins say, no problem, we're keeping him. Chelsea got told. So Everton, what you're saying, is Everton second in the pecking order? I think the Freakins are running the risk of giving that impression. and we both know there is no fan base where I think that's going to be less welcome than Everton Football Club. Well, they've always, I mean, just the reaction of the fans. I mean, the 1878 group who do so much good work for the atmosphere at the new stadium with banners and TIFOs and flags and all that, they say, they've just released a statement just saying, you know, they're not going to be contributing any more of that.

14:18You've got a mutinous support. you've got tensions with the coach, you've got absentee owners. What would you do if you were Kinnear?

14:27Henry:Well, the first thing is you need to make sure these day-to-day working relations are squared away. If there are any tensions with David Moyes and the sporting director, Nick, they need to be ironed out. The risk here is that when the criticism starts to fly, finger pointing kicks in and that can really turn a crack into a great big wide fissure. So that needs to be nipped in the bud. That is a job of leadership. That is absolutely the job for the chief executive. But the bigger issue I'm alluding to here is the relationship between the guys running the football club, Angus, Kinnear, Nick, the sporting director and David Moyes and ownership.

15:12Henry:And I think this sense that they're running a kind of two-speed economy here. Roma, six major signings, widely viewed in Italy as being bona fide title contenders, a manager who, when he says I'm keeping my best player, keeps him. And we compare that to Everton's business this window. It's a bit underwhelming. Two million quid of net spend. You know, they buy a league championship player as a marquee signing in the middle of midfield. They buy Norgard, ex-Brentford, ex-Arsenal,£7 million central midfield player. Seem to be overloading in the wing department with George and with Brannan and the swap deal with Palace.

15:55Henry:But overall, leaving a glaring hole at centre forward, everyone tells me they need and want a right back. It's an underwhelming£2 million net spend and crucially selling your best player from last season when you said you wouldn't. It adds up to a really, really underwhelming window that is bound to shine a light on whether ownership is as focused, as supportive, as committed and as ambitious as they seem to be for Roma. I think we have to watch this space, but there are telltale signs. And H, I think we should come back to this in due course and do a proper deep dive. This is, we are looking at some symptoms from this transfer window as to behaviour, as to the strategic plan, as to the people relationships and as to money.

16:48Henry:And I think that combination raises real question marks about where they are going with this club. I think we should come back to it. We definitely should. And the Everton fans' frustration must be when they look around and they see the type of money being lavished around by clubs, okay, clubs in the Champions League. But, I mean, let's go into those£400 million players. Why are there Anderson, Rodgers, Enzo and Barcola, obviously, to Everton's neighbours? Liverpool, why are we seeing such huge fees? Well, I think there's a couple of factors and I think we should maybe draw a contrast here. And we talked about Jack going for 100 million, followed by Declan Rice, 105 million not long after.

17:40Henry:And then I think if we add to the list of England internationals, Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers, I think there's a common theme there. Financial investors value companies, value investments as a combination of risk and return. Risk is a key variable that drives valuation It drives valuation in the stock market, in the bond market And it drives valuation in the transfer market And I would argue that a player who has played in the Premier League Multiple seasons with a high playing record I.e. a high percentage of minutes over the full season And so low injury risk with demonstrable success, culminating in regular caps for his country.

18:36Henry:That is about as low risk a transaction as you can do. Jack Grealish from Villa to City, Declan Rice from West Ham to Arsenal. And I think Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers are continuations of that trend. It doesn't get less risky or put another way as a financial investor age, it doesn't get more valuable than those sites of sorts of signings. Throw in across the whole of the market, continued upward, meaningful upward growth in revenues for the biggest clubs in Europe. Total transfer spending this window is three and a half billion pounds. It's no coincidence that total revenue for the biggest 20 clubs in Europe was up last year about 11 percent.

19:23Henry:And all the key revenue drivers in top club football are up. Meaningful growth in commercial income still. Really meaningful growth in match day income as these new owners in many cases are driving ticket pricing, driving expansion of capacity, even driving new stadia. and most important of all, continued growth in TV money. All adds up to revenues for the biggest clubs in Europe growing double digit. That feeds into their willingness to spend. But how much they spend, H, I think is fascinating. As I've said, Premier League to Premier League, England internationals who've absolutely demonstrated their quality outside the big six and get bought by the big six with their revenue advantage.

20:11Henry:Anyone can see what drives that. And then we see, interestingly, with Barcola coming out of PSG, a slightly different phenomenon. That is where the four biggest clubs in Europe, PSG, Bayern, Real and Barcelona. Fascinatingly for me, Henry, slightly bigger than the next six biggest clubs in Europe, which are our big six. There's the top ten, four and six. They're the biggest ten clubs in Europe by revenue. Interesting that those really mega European clubs, continental European clubs, with the exception of Diamandis to Real Madrid, we don't see quite the same appetite for spending 100 million dollars, euros or pounds, do we?

20:53I mean, it's fascinating. I mean, the sporting directors of those clubs and many of the clubs in Europe must look at the Premier League and think that's absolutely the Wild West. What is actually going on, throwing the money around. But it's interesting. I mean, I've been through so many of these transfer windows and there's so many sort of immediate sort of hot takes on it and people saying, oh, the Premier League is doing this or Europe's doing that or is it wages? Is it transfer fees? Is it agents? And try to look through what's actually more stained glass window than a sort of simple window to actually look cleanly through because it can be risky making generalizations.

21:32And to come back to your point about the big English clubs, three of our biggest clubs have not addressed issues which have been clear for for a while so just just take me through just maybe we should go through bit by bit on obviously Manchester United you covered superbly and it's interesting the word that you used austerity I now read um in a lot of the sort of takes on it but but take me through that because

21:58Henry:my industry media we tend to generalize a bit I agree and very very well said I would argue that In all those clubs, there is a contextual aspect to each transaction which should suggest to us to be wary of overgeneralisations. There is a strategic backdrop, and I think Manchester United is a strategic explainer. They are running what I called an austerity style regime and a good bet. And I like to relate these strategies to the data. The data shows that the top 10 transfers by value in this window were all done by the so-called big six. Man United had one deal in that list and it's number 10 in that list, which was a£70 million purchase of Belieber.

22:52Henry:At no point in the last 40 years would we have expected to see a ranking of transfers by English football clubs where Man United are number 10 in terms of the biggest deal in the window. That's significant. That tells me it is a strategy. They are not being sucked into these£100 million plus transactions of buying world leading stars, proven top international footballers. And that is a decision. It's a strategy to give its name. I would suggest that perhaps the next club on that list who have a perceptible strategy around the issue of finance and valuation are Arsenal. because we said on our show about Arsenal two months ago, given their phenomenal revenues they're now generating on the back of on-field success, which, by the way, has helped them grow their commercial and match day as well, but fundamentally massive improvements in their revenue, biggest revenue in the league.

23:58Henry:We haven't yet seen the 26-year-end figures. They're going to be, I think, probably setting a new English record for revenue with one of the richest families in the world as their owner, with an excellent management structure that allows for quick decision making, I thought they would make sure they're building on strength and add three marquee signings in defence midfield and in the forward line to take them to the next level. To compete not just with their rivals in the Premier League, where by common consensus they're already favourites to win the Premier League. but to actually recognise what we all saw last May, that there was a perceptible quality difference in the forward areas between Arsenal and PSG in the Champions League final.

24:49Henry:Brilliant squad addition with Konza. Excellent signing in Grimoireis out of Newcastle to strengthen depth in the midfield. By the way, the bench the other night when they played Villa was absolutely extraordinary. They had two world champions on there. Yeah, Eze, Konza, Bruno Guimaraes. Marino Zubamendi. An incredible bench, showing depth. But what I'm alluding to, H, was not depth. I was alluding to, was there a final piece of the puzzle to add quality? And the obvious comparison is to Liverpool. And Liverpool went and got Barcola. Do you think Arsenal, if they pushed London element, the club of Thierry Henry, do you think that they could have, they should have pushed more for Barcola?

25:36Henry:I can't see on the, listen, behind the scenes, the skills of recruitment, the skills of the sporting director, you know, getting ahead of the curve, building a relationship with the player's agent, having good lines into the selling club. You know, that's the job of recruiting. I can't imagine why on the face of it, side by side, Liverpool v Arsenal, that couldn't have been a fair fight. And you just got the sense, as we did with the Morgan Rodgers deal, that Arsenal just weren't going to play that game. Because Arsenal looked at Morgan Rodgers and thought, there's an 80 million player. They've briefed heavily.

26:17Henry:They thought it was 80. And when Chelsea got into the 116 level, we're not playing in that game. Is that sensible or a false economy? Look, I think if Arsenal, as much as anybody in the Premier League, can afford to be the winning bidder when you are competing for absolutely elite talent. And for whatever reason, the price of elite talent now has a one in front of it in the Premier League. Barcola's come out of the double European champions World Cup a player that was not satisfied by being a bench player at PSG for reasons when frankly the two players ahead in the queue are even more elite global superstars it was a player, we said on this show three months ago we'll leave this summer the perfect recipe not quite happy with his non-starting status at his club incredible pedigree on the world stage internationally and on the club stage and to me that was a Premier League elite signing and I thought Arsenal would be more competitive there so I'm scoring them eight and a half out of ten for the window as high as that yes I think the Konza Grimoraes signings are brilliant signings well priced but I sense that Arsenal have an approach to spending which is controlled.

27:43Henry:That Cronky and Cronky Senior, Cronky Junior and Berta, who's doing their bidding in the transfer market, they are disciplined. And here's the key word we didn't hear a lot of last night on the Deadline Show. We don't hear enough of when we talk about the transfer business. It's not the 100 million price. It's the wage side of the equation. I also sense that Arsenal are very, very disciplined on wages. And if that means they miss out on players where rivals are paying a little bit more or a lot more, so be it. And one person's, you know, prudent financial regime discipline is another person's lack of ambition.

28:23Henry:If you're an Arsenal fan, you decide. I see a really well-run club. I see an incredibly disciplined and tightly run club. But this window, I would have pushed the boat out, particularly given I got Trossard and Martinelli out of the building, that's half the funding required to go get Barcola. So that is a strange decision. There's a broader issue here. And again, we sort of try to jump to generalisations. But why don't the elite superstars of Vinicius Junior and Alvarez, players like that, come necessarily to Premier League football? Because the wages are here. We always say it's the best league in the world.

29:01Not many of the superstars are here. that Real Madrid, Kane elected to go to Bayern Munich. Why? Is there any particular reason? Because the wages must be commensurate.

29:11Henry:It's interesting. We talked about those four huge clubs, Real Barca, Bayern and PSG. With the exception of Jan Diamonde going to Real Madrid for, I think, 125. Bayern's biggest signings, about 50. Paris Saint-Germain, maybe a bit more, 60 or 70. Barcelona, I think Anthony Gordon was their highest-priced signing at 70. Isn't that fascinating? So the notion that these transfer fees are driven by the superior revenues of our big six may be true, relatively speaking, within the Premier League. But the four clubs in Europe with even bigger revenues than our big six aren't quite playing in that same marketplace or certainly without the frequency and volume of spending we see.

29:58Henry:I suspect that the wage side of the equation is quite important. And I think there's another very boring but very important variable, which is taxation. And all of these key European economies have different approaches to income tax, top rate taxation, etc. And let's face it, I think, you know, the United Kingdom has become a little bit less welcoming at the very top end on that side of the equation as well. in recent times. And it's no coincidence that agents would be looking at that and taking a view. We all know this great old Italian word. It's been around your and my whole lifetime. Netto.