In short
The episode analyzes the implications of Morgan Rogers’ £117m transfer from Aston Villa to Chelsea for UEFA financial rules (FSR/FFP) and how it affects Villa’s ability to sign players permanently, plus what it signals about Arsenal’s transfer strategy and Newcastle’s position in the window.
Guests/backgrounds
Henry (host/analyst) and “H” (co-host). Henry is a football finance/regulatory specialist who repeatedly references UEFA FSR/FFP mechanics; “H” is a football commentator with strong Premier League club knowledge and transfer-window commentary.
Key claims
- UEFA “player exchange” rules mean Villa can’t replace Chelsea players permanently within 45 days of Rogers’ move without reducing Rogers’ profit.
- Therefore Villa must structure any Chelsea incoming deal (e.g., Garnacho) as a conditional loan, not an unconditional purchase.
- Chelsea’s speed and willingness to pay the asking price suggests no inflated-value conspiracy; the fee is argued to be fair market value.
- Arsenal’s lower bid reflects valuation discipline; Newcastle are portrayed as likely to lose Bruno Guimarães unless Arsenal meets the asking price.
Notable examples
- UEFA scrutiny of “inflated exchange” deals (profit booked without cash).
- Harvey Elliott loan-to-transfer precedent (appearance conditions and eventual failure).
- Newcastle’s earlier deadline-driven sales (Elliot Anderson to Man City; Tonali/Gordon handled earlier this time).
- Mentioned targets: Tonali, Julián Álvarez, Viktor Gyökeres, Barcola, Bruno Guimarães, Garnacho.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOTribute to Kevin Keegan
0:30 to 0:53
Discussion on the legacy of Kevin Keegan and his impact on football.
“Getting help from one of State Farm's 19 ,000 local agents when you choose to bundle home and auto.”
Tribute to Kevin Keegan
1:27 to 2:34
Discussion on the legacy of Kevin Keegan and his impact on football.
“And he really was an absolute legend of the game.”
Morgan Rodgers Transfer Overview
2:34 to 4:00
Analyzing the implications of Morgan Rodgers' move from Aston Villa to Chelsea.
“There was a brilliant tribute on television which showed fantastic footage of his playing career and some of the memorable things that happened after his playing career when he got into management.”
Financial Regulations and Challenges
4:00 to 5:26
Exploration of the financial regulations affecting Aston Villa and Chelsea's transfers.
“And when David Ornstein sort of tweeted about it, I was in, I think we're in Miami, and I was going, wow, what an extraordinary deal.”
Profit from the Sale of Rodgers
5:26 to 7:05
Discussion on how Aston Villa profits from the sale of Morgan Rodgers.
“Now, Middlesbrough have been a huge beneficiary here because they had a sell-on clause, 20 % of the profit.”
Player Exchange Rules Explained
7:05 to 8:05
Understanding the implications of player exchange rules under UEFA guidelines.
“Chelsea have also been operating under agreement with UEFA.”
Garnaccio Loan Deal Complexity
8:05 to 9:28
Examining the complexities surrounding the loan deal for Garnaccio between Villa and Chelsea.
“And this is the key point on Morgan Rodgers.”
Conditional Elements of Transfers
9:28 to 11:29
Analyzing how conditional elements affect transfer agreements under UEFA scrutiny.
“Look, there are so many elements to this.”
Challenges in Structuring Deals
11:29 to 14:00
Discussing the difficulties clubs face in structuring deals that comply with UEFA regulations.
“So structuring the Garnacho move is really tricky for Villa and Chelsea.”
Conditional Loan Deals and Expectations
14:00 to 15:00
Discussion about the conditional nature of loan deals in football, particularly focusing on Aston Villa and Harvey Elliott.
“So I suspect that's too conditional from a Chelsea standpoint.”
Show all 22 chapters
UEFA Regulations and Financial Sustainability
15:00 to 18:00
Exploration of UEFA's financial regulations, their implications on player transfers, and the specific rules regarding interrelated transactions.
“It can be anything from starts, minutes, competition related.”
Valuation of Morgan Rogers: Fair Market or Inflation?
18:00 to 22:00
Debate over the valuation of Morgan Rogers in the context of market comparisons and club financial strategies.
“They had to be in the loan market and that would be true if they go back in for Jackson, if they go back in for any other Chelsea player.”
Arsenal vs Chelsea: Financial Strategies and Player Moves
22:00 to 28:03
Analyzing the contrasting financial strategies of Arsenal and Chelsea regarding player acquisitions and wage structures.
“UA, for accounting bod, the Anderson, who, by the way, you know, was a Scottish youth international, bumbling along at Newcastle.”
Chelsea's Quick Move for Morgan Rogers
28:03 to 29:16
Discusses Chelsea's strategy in securing Morgan Rogers amidst competition.
“OK, and they have not been anywhere near the highest wage bill in the Premier League so far.”
Arsenal's Missed Opportunity
29:16 to 31:09
Examines Arsenal's approach and potential missteps in the Rogers deal.
“Look, at the end of the day, if you're 37 million lower than a bid with the club, then the love's going to be irrelevant.”
Implications for Arsenal's Future Transfers
31:09 to 33:46
Analyzes Arsenal's transfer strategy post-Rogers and their current needs.
“Do you think that was badly handled by Arsenal?”
Arsenal's Pursuit of Alvarez and Barcola
33:46 to 36:09
Discusses Arsenal's interest in Alvarez and Barcola as potential signings.
“Not selected for a Champions League final.”
Newcastle's Selling Strategy and Player Dynamics
36:09 to 38:06
Explores Newcastle's approach to selling players and their boardroom lessons.
“So, if we get to September 1, you've got Barcola on the left, you've got Alvarez through the middle, nobody's going to be saying, well, Arsenal were a bit too prudent with their transfer fees and kept missing out.”
Bruno's Future and Transfer Dynamics
38:06 to 42:06
Considers the implications of Bruno's potential departure from Newcastle.
“No, I'm just going to say to you what I've said to you in March.”
Implications of Player Transfers for Clubs
42:06 to 45:20
Explore the dynamics and impacts of player transfers on club strategies.
“This is absolutely comparable to Alexander Ezek.”
Managerial Challenges and Future Prospects
45:20 to 49:20
Discuss how losing key players impacts managerial strategies and club ambitions.
“And I think Bruno and his people will say, fair enough.”
Financial Regulations and Club Futures
49:20 to 51:22
Analyze the effects of financial regulations on club growth and project viability.
“So that is going to be a sign of what a good manager he is.”
Transcript
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0:52Henry:Welcome to the Football Boardroom. The World Cup's over and we're squarely back in the Premier League and an exciting summer transfer window We're going to take a look at the ramifications of the Morgan Rodgers move from Aston Villa to Chelsea Try and unpick the regulatory minefield that those two clubs are operating in What it says about Arsenal's approach to the summer window and indeed where we think Newcastle are at at the same time Please don't forget to subscribe and I hope you enjoy the show
1:26cp good to see you in the flesh after seven weeks apart yes i've missed you but it's great to be home yeah and obviously we return with some sad news of kevin keegan a man a player a manager that i got to know and hugely hugely respected and our thoughts obviously go out to gene and the family and all Kevin's many friends and former teammates and I imagine you with your Liverpool connections were an admirer of his did you know him?
1:59Henry:I didn't actually get to know him when I came into the professional game but I knew him as a fan I was seven when he came to Liverpool and without any question he was my he was my first hero I'm not ashamed to say I cried when he left after the European Cup final in 77. And I was 13. And he really was an absolute legend of the game. And yeah, died too young. There's no question about it. And I was very touched by the tributes. There was a brilliant tribute on television which showed fantastic footage of his playing career and some of the memorable things that happened after his playing career when he got into management.
2:47Henry:But there's no Liverpool fan out there who would disagree with him being in the absolute inner circle of greats of our football club. And it's very rare perhaps to be an even bigger great at another club and that's most definitely what he was at Newcastle United, both for his end of career playing and his brilliant stint as the club's manager. So very, very sad. And how fitting as we look forward to the start of the season that Newcastle United's first game of the season is the visit of Liverpool. Yeah, that is going to be a very, very emotional occasion. And as the season starts, inevitably we're having, because of the transfer window, which you and I have been discussing while I've been away with seeing, obviously, players move, players come in and out, and some pretty high-profile ones.
3:38I mean, obviously, out in the States, seeing Elliot Anderson, he moves to City, and then Morgan Rodgers, who was an absolute joy to work with. I mean, Chelsea fans have been saying, well, what's he like? What's he like? What an absolute diamond of a character. Chelsea have brought a really good individual as well as an exceptional player for£117 million. And when David Ornstein sort of tweeted about it, I was in, I think we're in Miami, and I was going, wow, what an extraordinary deal. And so many questions have been created by it, and there have been some really interesting pieces on it. But I'm so pleased that I'm seeing the king of PSR and FFP to discuss it.
4:22Henry:FSR, actually, which is the UEFA acronym for financial regulation. Well, I mean, it's FFP, but it's also there's a bit of FFS in it because what is it? Is it a regulatory minefield? Well, I think when today we see the confirmation that following Rogers' transfer from Villa to Chelsea, that Garnaccio is going the other way and alone, then that crystallises the fact that, yes, indeed, we are in regulatory minefield territory for these two clubs. And let's be clear, these two clubs, you know, are effectively already wearing a kind of ankle tag marked UEFA. And given that they're operating under these already existing UEFA agreements, I think we should have no illusion that they are structuring these two transactions meticulously and carefully because of the capacity for a mine to blow up here.
5:25Henry:And let's explain what I mean by that. Let's start with Villa. You are mine host. i'm your host okay villa uh have sold morgan rogers for 117 million pounds they paid about eight with add-ons that took it to about 15 million pounds so rough rough justice here they made 100 million pounds in no time it's an absolutely extraordinarily successful piece of recruitment development and selling for profit whatever your feelings on losing great players on a financial level, plus or minus 100. Now, Middlesbrough have been a huge beneficiary here because they had a sell-on clause, 20 % of the profit. So roughly speaking of that 100 of profit, 20 goes to Middlesbrough.
6:12Henry:80 million pounds of profit for Aston Villa on the sale of Morgan Rogers. That deal in and of itself in isolation is a game changer in generating really substantial profits that help alleviate some of those concerns. And in fact, Henry, under the UEFA regime, which is the current most pressing of their regulatory constraints, this deal liberates them to bring players in, whereas without a substantial sale, they would have been very hampered on their ability to sign anybody. Is it tougher than Premier League rules? UEFA in general are tougher, and I will explain in particular why in these Chelsea Villa dealings that is relevant.
7:00Henry:But the first thing to state is, as I say, an 80 million profit. And indeed, this is the issue with Chelsea. Chelsea have also been operating under agreement with UEFA. And they're very familiar with just how strict UEFA are at policing what they call player exchange transactions. And player exchange transactions are literally where two players move between clubs within a period of time. And under UEFA rules, those transactions are very heavily scrutinized to try and prevent clubs from artificially inflating their profits. Perfect example, let's say I'm selling you player X who's really worth 10, but let's call it 20.
7:51Henry:You sell me one who's really worth 10, let's call it 20. No money changes hands, but we get to book a£20 million profit, not a£10 million profit. That's what was going on a few years ago. UEFA have shut that down. So they scrutinise these deals between clubs. And this is the key point on Morgan Rodgers. Once Morgan Rodgers goes to Chelsea, they are immediately in a position with Chelsea Football Club where any player coming into Villa on a permanent signing within 45 days would be captured by these strict player exchange rules. and specifically Henry, if Villa were to sign any Chelsea player and let's pick Garnaccio on a permanent, then it would reduce Aston Villa's profit quite dramatically.
8:46Henry:So for example, if they were to sign Garnaccio for let's say 40 million, okay, that's what we read was the asking price. They take their 80th profit and under UEFA rules, reduce it by the cost of Garnaccio,£40 million, thereby halving Aston Villa's profit from this brilliant Rogers sale. That is completely untenable for Villa. They couldn't possibly entertain that risk, Henry. And that is why, having sold Rogers to Chelsea, they can only bring a player in from Chelsea on loan, not as a permanent transfer, to protect that vital£80 million. Look, there are so many elements to this. Who actually decides what is effectively a fair value for Garnaccio?
9:37Would UEFA have a view, well, he's worth 40?
9:40Henry:They absolutely do have a view and they absolutely, under their rules, have a control panel who have scope to look at market comparables, form their own independent view as to whether a transaction is at fair market value. And in the case of Villa and Chelsea here with these two transactions, as I say, first of all, any sale, even if it's at fair market value, would reduce Aston Villa's profit, even if there was no discussion about fair market value. And as I say, that's simply not tenable for Villa in this window because the principal advantage of Rogers' sale is a massive boost to their FFP profits.
10:24Henry:OK, but now we get to the Garnaccio loan deal. Even that is not as simple as you could as you could imagine, because UEFA have got wise to clubs having cosy arrangements where they say, look, because of the financial rules, we can't sign him permanently today. so we'll take him on loan and then we'll sign him you know when the window's over in the next window at the end of the season we'll basically sign him later think of it as a deferred purchase well guess what UEFA rules specifically prevent that as well because UEFA's rules say that if a loan that becomes a transfer is almost certain, i.e.
11:13Henry:it's virtually unconditional. It's just a matter of time. You're loaning him today, you're buying him tomorrow, come what may, they basically say it's not a loan at all. It's a purchase. And if it's a purchase, we'll put a value on it. And if we put a value on it, we'll reduce your Rogers profit. So structuring the Garnacho move is really tricky for Villa and Chelsea. Because of the conditional element. Because of the conditional element. That's right. Again, coming back to the fine detail, who decides what is fair conditional? I mean, is 10 games for Garnaccio, which you would expect him to do?
11:52Is it 20 starts? Is it done on minutes? Is it done on Villa finishing in Europe?
11:57Henry:This is the nub of the issue. The answer to your question again, OK, is UEFA decide. Let's be crystal clear. This is an effective police force with extremely wide-ranging, strict laws. And Chelsea and Villa know better than any two clubs in the Premier League right now what it's like to have the UEFA ankle tag on. And so I can only imagine the meticulous way in which these arrangements have to be structured. Because here's the risk and here's the issue. OK, Villa cannot, will not possibly risk those profits being reduced because the Garnaccio move is decided by UEFA to not be a loan, but to be a purchase.
12:46Henry:How do they achieve that? They have to make it conditional. OK, now put yourself in Chelsea's shoes. Chelsea really want to move Garnaccio out, so they want it to be as unconditional as possible. So just imagine Villa's lawyer and Chelsea's lawyer sitting together in a room last night trying to come up to answer your question with an element of conditionality that both clubs can look UEFA in the eyes when this deal becomes permanent, probably next summer, and say it was conditional. it wasn't certain that the boy would move from Stamford Bridge to Villa Park. So I would be fascinated to know what those details are.
13:33Henry:You've mentioned a couple of examples. One condition might be if Aston Villa qualify for the Champions League. I've used that condition in the past. Now anyone would see that is highly conditional. Big tick in the box for UEFA. Big tick in the box for Aston Villa. only have to do it if they're in the Champions League and have got more money. No problem. The problem with that is Chelsea don't get the certainty they want. So I suspect that's too conditional from a Chelsea standpoint. Now we go the other way, H. You talked about, you know, let's think about if he plays 10 games for Aston Villa in the Premier League.
14:14Henry:Is that conditional? Well, most people would say it's quite close to a formality. Harvey Elliott might disagree very interesting isn't it that's exactly where we were this time last year there's no doubt in my mind when Liverpool loaned Harvey Elliott to Aston Villa with a conditional obligation for Villa to buy him later after 10 games I guarantee you Henry Liverpool thought he was gone and I think Villa thought he was gone they weren't messing around they thought this boy's coming in and he's going to be a Villa player and it's a really smart structured transaction and it didn't happen and it didn't happen because A.
15:02Henry:on the playing side perhaps in his early minutes Unai didn't fancy him as much as he thought he would that's possible some rumours that the sporting director signed him not the manager and that's why they weren't sure about him but Villa found a way to get out of that deal I know what you're thinking if the same sequence of events were to happen with Garnaccio let's say this Garnaccio loan is a similar condition it's about how many games he plays for Villa you can be sure Villa will be saying to you Afer look it's conditional you only have to look what happened with Harvey Elliott to see anything can happen on a games condition just on that you've done many of these loan deals just on them when they say appearances can it be league cup because obviously that's easier to play someone in it's highly specified it is highly specified so absolutely specified on on harvey's case as you'll recall when he got minutes in the europa league last year it was premier league starts right okay so everything is capable of negotiation and documentation with meticulous precision and in a case of a an appearance clause.
16:14Henry:It can be anything from starts, minutes, competition related. All of that's on the table. I don't know what they've agreed with Garnaccio, but the nub, the crux of this issue is Villa cannot take any risk with UEFA saying, you know what, this wasn't a real loan. This was pretty well guaranteed that Garnaccio becomes a Villa player on a permanent. Don't like it. We're deeming it to be a transfer and we're taking 40 million quid off of your Rogers profit. I know my former colleagues at Villa cannot and will not take that risk. Hence, this loan will err on the side of conditionality and we'll see how that all plays out.
17:00Henry:But the risk for Chelsea, H, the risk for Chelsea is conditional and Villa find a way not to complete that deal or have to find a way to not complete that deal and Garnaccio bounces back to Chelsea next summer. Those have been the negotiating parameters that have governed this deal and by the way interesting data point the 45-day rule few people have asked me about that that's that's UEFA's way of saying that in effect when two clubs are doing business on two players doesn't matter if they say they're separate. If any business is done between those clubs within 45 days, we're calling them interrelated, linked and exchange.
17:42Henry:And by the way, when Rodgers signed for Chelsea, it was the 21st of July. Guess where 45 days was? Answer, after the window shut. So the minute Rodgers went to Chelsea, from that second, they couldn't possibly buy a Chelsea player because of the effect on their profits. They had to be in the loan market and that would be true if they go back in for Jackson, if they go back in for any other Chelsea player. It can only be a loan and it can only be conditional. How specific does it become? I mean, if they were wanting to, say, get a defender, would that, obviously, different player to Rodgers, does that make any difference?
18:22Any business.
18:24Henry:Any business between two clubs within 45 days. is UEFA have decided under their rules, J9 is the relevant annex to the UEFA FSR, Financial Sustainability. You love this stuff, don't you? I love this stuff. And FSR is the new FFP, P &S, SCR. Bloody hell, it's alphabet spaghetti. But the Financial Sustainability Rules of UEFA, the takeaway for our audience, let's be clear here, is these guys are pretty damn serious about policing and they've thought of everything. The analogy I use is like is like UK tax law. You know, there are there are there are how to excite us. There are. I'm sorry. Yeah, I don't mean I didn't mean it in that sense.
19:07Henry:I meant in the sense that it's constantly evolving. There are loopholes. And the job of advisors is to help their clients exploit those loopholes. And when they're exploited, the job of HMRC in this case is to shut those loopholes down. UEFA is constantly reviewing measures where there is scope for loopholes to be exploited and shutting them down. And by the way, it's in stark contrast to the Premier League, isn't it? So, you know, selling your women's team to yourself, not feasible under UEFA. Selling your hotel to yourself, not feasible under UEFA. Exchange transactions. UEFA say, you know what, you may say that the profit was 40.
19:49Henry:we're going to have a look at it and independently assess whether we actually think those values were correct. So I want our audience to take away without the shadow of doubt that these guys are pretty damn serious. And nobody knows that better than Chelsea and Villa, which makes these two transactions so fascinating from a structural standpoint. Just taking a step back, and this is something that a lot of fans from other clubs have been looking at as well. Will UEFA have taken into account, and presumably that's actually underpinning their whole interest in this, is that£117 million seems quite a substantial thing.
20:24Very good question. You're on fire today, boy. No, not really. You are?
20:27Henry:No, I've just been reading some very good... Well, do you know why that is? It's because, you know, in most walks of life, you know, if a nice house is on the market in North London for a million quid and someone bids, you know, 800 grand and everyone knows kind of 800s where this looks like it's going. And then someone walks in and spends 1.2 million. That gap gets people asking questions. I've had lots of people say to me, did Chelsea only pay 117 because they were going to do some arrangement selling one of their players for an inflated price? Which a lot of people are saying, particularly when we had the Arsenal interest in Morgan Rodgers, which was there.
21:13Henry:H, can I kill that myth? Go on. Because I don't think that's... 80's not 80? No. Two things. One, what you've really asked me is, is 117 fair market value? Yeah. Okay. Is it 37 over what he's worth? No, I think it's fair market value. And that's not an opinion. It is me literally applying fair market value rules and regulations. You're going Elliot Anderson plus one. I am. And Elliot Anderson is more established than Morgan Rodgers. I don't agree. I think that if I'm Aston Villa. Do you think Morgan Rodgers? Different players, I get that. If I'm Aston Villa and I'm sitting in with the control panel of UEFA trying to justify whether Morgan Rodgers at 117 is fair market value.
21:57Henry:Absolutely, yes. I'm saying, did you notice two weeks ago, Mr. UA, for accounting bod, the Anderson, who, by the way, you know, was a Scottish youth international, bumbling along at Newcastle. Morgan Rodgers, two years younger, comparable or superior pedigree, attacking player who can play 7, 11, 10, 8, 9. You think 9 as well. I mean, we can debate the 9. All I'm saying is, indisputably, open and shut case, 10 second long, Morgan Rogers at 117. Then why did Arsenal only start interest at 80? That's a different question. I'm talking about... 37 is quite a jump. Yeah, but I'm talking about the technical definition of fair market value and relating it to an open market transaction.
22:45Henry:And nobody can dispute that Elliott to Man City is anything other than an open market transaction. So no problem on Morgan. and I've also already sorry let me get this right you think Morgan Rogers at£117 million is fair market value from a regulatory standpoint please let's be clear fair market value that's not the same as saying good value which is what I think you're really asking and I'm going to come to good value but let me just finish on these conspiracy theories that somehow Roger Villa and Chelsea are kind of these guys are where I keep saying it they've got the UEFA ankle tags on they're not going to go down Sainsbury's and shoplift when they're wearing an ankle tag.
23:24Henry:Okay. They are under the UEFA microscope already. And so 100%, in my opinion, no conspiracy theories here on inflating value. Quite the opposite. Getting these transactions meticulously structured to comply with UEFA would be my read on Aston Villa and Chelsea's behaviour. Now let's move to good value because it's a really fair question. It's out there, isn't it? It's been heavily briefed in that Arsenal felt that Morgan's value was nearer 80. That is their prerogative. OK, I think most of us saw the 117 on Saturday. I think it was just before the third place playoff game. Wow, would have been your average reaction in my world in professional football.
24:15Henry:Big number. But is it that big when you look at Elliot? Is it that big when you look at deck? Is it that big when you look at Jack? I said on this show in February, I thought Morgan Rogers would leave in the summer and I thought it would have a one in front of it. I did. But an extra 17 on that one. Well, you know, yeah, exactly. But that was out there as a prediction. My basis was if Jack was 100, they'd certainly be wanting to improve on Jack five years later. so so that turned out to be true are the real question is what do we feel about arsenals assessing you know what actually we think the right number's 80 and we're not moving off it couple of things on that i've got to say sneaky admiration first thing sneaky admiration because what for losing a player for being disciplined on price and i'm losing a player one person's financial prudence and discipline is another person's lack of ambition.
25:12Henry:I would observe, H, that Stan Kroenke and his son Josh, let's face it, it's Stan's money and Josh signs the checks. I would say a quid of Kroenke money is worth a quid. They treat it like their own money. They own the club. Whereas I could respectfully suggest clubs that are owned by hedge funds, owned by private equity investors. Chelsea. or with large amounts of borrowed money, I would respectfully suggest are a little less careful or prudent with their cash. You pay your money and make your choices. So you prefer the Arsenal model to the Chelsea model? I just have a sneaky regard for clubs that form their view on value and hold discipline.
25:51Henry:I'll tell you why. Because if you don't, in the end, two things happen. OK, it goes wrong. You breach financial regulations and you lose points, you get dot points, you get in trouble, you have UEFA sticking a straitjacket round you. or you end up having to sell the club because you run out of money. So I like the stability. I like the responsibility that goes with a club run the way Arsenal is running. But don't you think Rodgers was their priority target? I love kind of just trying to read between the lines of your great profession. And I'm getting a vibe. I've heard this from a couple of my contacts as well.
26:28I think that Chelsea moved amazingly quickly.
Read the full transcript
26:32Henry:it looks as though that deal got done in a couple of days when deals happen quickly they happen for one reason that a buyer hits the asking price Villa made it quite clear we want Elliott plus one Chelsea formed the view that's the only deal they're going to do on Morgan he has a long-term contract he's their best player all the wages would have been sorted out in advance I don't think wages were ever going to be a problem because Villa don't compete with the big six on wages so I think whether he was at Arsenal or Chelsea, the wages wouldn't have been that different and wages would have been better than at Villa.
27:04Chelsea structure the wages differently, don't they? But they back ended a little bit more.
27:08Henry:Yeah, the rumours are they're lower on basic pay, higher on bonuses, higher on Champions League qualification, blah, blah, blah. All I can say is that the whole reason players like Morgan Rodgers leave Villa and go to Chelsea, it clearly isn't for European football. Yeah. I mean, Chelsea ain't in Europe, Villa in the bloody Champions League. No, it's because in the long run, leading player agents know, leading players know that their earnings capacity at the big six are miles higher precisely because the big six have twice the revenues. And under the squad cost rules that are now operative in football, a big club's ability to pay wages, a fixed percentage of those turnover, higher the turnover, higher the wage bill.
27:51Henry:So that's why Morgan's gone to Chelsea and could have gone to Arsenal. And I'm coming to Arsenal because Arsenal now have the ability, if they choose to, to have the highest wage bill in the Premier League because they've got the highest revenues. OK, and they have not been anywhere near the highest wage bill in the Premier League so far. They were fourth last season. Yeah, and I think, as I've suggested, on the transfer market, on transfer fees, they are a little bit more prudent than some of their rivals. You chuck the money around a little bit more, shall we say, spontaneously. But it's July.
28:26Henry:You know, it's July the 20th. OK, there's plenty of time. And I'm coming to your point on priority. I get the feeling that, you know, Chelsea moved amazingly quickly to hit an asking price. So that squared away Villa right away. Villa, thank you. Handshake at the club level. Now you talk about the next bit of the equation, getting the player squared away. I get the vibe that, you know, Chelsea showed full love to Morgan. They get Cole Palmer on the phone, his oldest mate. Mate, you've got to join me. It'll be great. It's magic. You and me. Get the manager on the phone? Well, I'm definitely hearing, no question about it, on the record that Morgan was blown away with a phone call with Xabi Alonso.
29:09So we've had show me the love, show me the money, and we can balance that, which is the driving force. Do you think Arsenal might have missed a beat in terms of not showing more love?
29:20Henry:Look, at the end of the day, if you're 37 million lower than a bid with the club, then the love's going to be irrelevant. But they would have gone up. I mean, that presumably was a starting point. I think so too, H. I think they might have got to a one-handle. Is that what you call it, a one-handle? They'd have stuck a one-handle on it. Got maybe to the hundred with bonuses. But one handle wouldn't have opened the door to Rodgers. Not if 117 was there. Probably not. But then these things get more complicated, you know. Then if the player really, really, really preferred the Gooners, because Arteta's show-me-the-love speech was better than Jabby Alonso's.
29:57Henry:Champions, in the Champions League. Straight in the, you know, whatever it is, you know. Yeah, if the love had been more from the manager, if, you know, he had another best mate at Arsenal, if Decker you know let me be clear I've done this myself in that England camp for the last seven weeks Declan Rice Bakao Saka proper full on love on Morgan Maduwegi yeah putting the love putting the squeeze on Morgan but they probably had Rhys James in there as well but Rhys was doing the same thing so it was a tug of love okay but what I'm picking sorry have you done that with players very much so very much so so yeah everyone knows those camps do they talk figures yeah I think so I think they do so I'm just wondering whether on that whole dynamic, the sense I get is Chelsea really executed the manager loving, really, really leveraged the Cole relationship, but fundamentally hit the asking price quickly.
30:53Henry:And I think Arsenal, before that weekend, there's no question that Morgan was a leading target for them. A leading or the leading? a leading target they were never going to buy one player this summer but he would have been in the three players we said on this show didn't we a month ago Berta's job now is to capitalise on success and by the way Joss Cronkri went on the record about two days after our pod and more or less said we want to build on our success all great dynasties as they call them in America take success and say we're not being complacent we're going to the next level going again all these euphemism trying to repeat okay and that meant for Arsenal three players that step in to a title winning side and a side that got to the Champions League final and step in as starters I think Morgan's in that list of two or three players that's all the messaging we were getting okay and I think Morgan thought that and I think Morgan's representatives thought that and we did and then Villa say you know what it needs to be it needs to have a one handle on it at least and Arsenal think you know what fine that's what I'd say if I were you but you ain't going to get that and you've got these serious FFP issues let's just be patient once it gets a bit further in the window and Villa can't sign anybody because they haven't sold anybody and you wait for a squeeze in their cajonies maybe they'll get a bit more realistic on price I think that's what Bertha and Arsenal thought and Chelsea proved them wrong Chelsea come in and blew them away with the asking price.
32:34Henry:And you make your mind up. Do you think that was badly handled by Arsenal? Do you think they were, as I say, disciplined, cautious, maybe got their tactics a bit wrong? Don't really matter. He's a Chelsea player now. And the real question, I think, for the Gooners, is what happens now in the rest of the window? They've missed out on Tonali. Now, talk about numbers that surprised us. I personally thought 92.5 big ones, up to 100 for Tonali. Their neighbours. That, that, that, yeah. But that looked like a big number. So am I judging Arsenal for not paying 90 to 100 for Tenale? I'm not. I'm not. I think that looks like a really big number.
33:13Henry:As I said recently, Spurs are in a different ballgame. You're showing a lot of love to a club that hasn't bought the type of players they need. Well, it won't be if it gets to September 1 and they bought nobody. I'll be saying, what are you playing at, lads? No point having the highest revenues in the league. No point having the richest owner in the league. No point winning a title and going to a final and not building on it. And so I'm looking and saying, you know, where were the glaring? You tell me. We sat on this show. I remember saying to you, you know, Jokic was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle.
33:45Henry:Not selected for a title decider against City to start. Not selected for a Champions League final. He still contributed in the Premier League. So there's a balance there. But I take your point. So are they then going to throw everything at Alvarez? Yeah. But he's going to Barcelona, surely. I don't think he is. You think he'll go to Arsenal? I certainly think Arsenal would like to get him. And I think Jokeres going the other way is a trump card. So Arsenal could have the last laugh because they could get an outstanding number nine. Let's put it this way. Nobody will be lamenting Morgan Rodgers if Julian Alvarez is wearing the nine at Arsenal next season.
34:17Henry:And they can go very high on that deal because they've got a really good proven centre forward and Jokeres to go the other way. So player plus cash, hit the asking price, Bob's your uncle. Sorry, forgive my naivety. Why isn't that a swap? Well, it is an exchange deal, but it will be done at fair market value. It will be done at fair market value. That deal is only happening if Alvarez is, you know, top dollar. I don't know what that number is, by the way, for Atletico. But Burton knows the club well. It's his former club. Anyone can see that he is absolutely in that super elite centre-forward category.
34:57Henry:I think they'll be pushing that hard. Now, I know Arsenal fans, you know, maybe have mixed feelings about a bloke who appears to view Barcelona as his first choice. But I don't think that deal is happening. I don't think Atletico want to strengthen their rival. I don't think Arsenal will be worried about the fact that he might have had his eyes on someone else. Neither do I. Now, the other name that we've talked about on this show that I still think is the most obvious, perfect fit to Arsenal. And I'm sorry to stray into a pure football opinion, but we talked about, you know, an out and out 11 who can, you know, create and get on the end of stuff as well.
35:36Henry:Barcola out of PSG didn't get a start after the Champions League quarterfinals, right the way through to the finals. Probably sees himself as Dwayne's level or more. Definitely a player of that quality, doesn't want to be a substitute. shoot, I would have thought he's a player for the right money who should be coming to the Premier League and being a superstar for a leading Premier League club. I think he speaks decent English as well, judging by some of the interviews at the World Conference. But aren't Liverpool all over him? Yeah, I hear so. But again, let's be clear. Let's go back to those basics where we started this show, financial regulations.
36:11Henry:Under the current regulatory environment, Arsenal's revenues being the highest in the league mean if it's a shootout on salary for Barcola they should be able to blow Liverpool out the water particularly given what Liverpool did last summer so and I don't tell me if you agree you know I'm better than I do I think the clubs the clubs always yeah there's they've always liked the French market they've always liked leading French talent just feels to me like there's a fit there if I was Arteta I'd be saying to Josh Kroenke you know give Berta the check but get over to Paris, let's get that deal done.
36:46Henry:So, if we get to September 1, you've got Barcola on the left, you've got Alvarez through the middle, nobody's going to be saying, well, Arsenal were a bit too prudent with their transfer fees and kept missing out. That's the test. It's six weeks and we'll see if they live up to it. Particularly if they then get Bruner Grimmaris as an upgrade on Zubamendi. Well, that's an interesting one as well, isn't it? Let's talk about Grimmaris. Yeah, I'm really fascinated by tune and in particular their approach to to play as sales Bruno would be an emotional loss as well as a footballing loss because he looked like the type of individual who came in from abroad and actually bought in not only to Newcastle United as a football club but Newcastle as just a brilliant city to live in true and he's talked about it and there were Instagram posts and that I think emotionally as well as on a footballing level that will be painful.
37:45I know you don't like bringing emotion into this. I do. I like you bringing it in but I'm going to give you a cold shower boy. But you're going to throw me in the time and it won't be the first time. But you look at that will be a painful loss. More than Gordon, more than Tonali for Newcastle fans. It will and it is. You're going to put your accountant's hat on aren't you?
38:06Henry:No, I'm just going to say to you what I've said to you in March. I said when you start selling your players and you you know you send the message that you know people you know we're a selling club where does it end it was obvious that uh gordon gordon was going to go and they handled it and this is my point the art of the sell okay we've talked about morgan rogers i think there's a direct relationship between villa's approach to morgan rogers and Newcastle's approach to Anthony Gordon and Tonali. And it's called The Art of the Sell. And it's also, Henry, in the boardroom, learning your lessons.
38:48Henry:Again, I'm sorry to repeat myself. I said to you a few weeks ago, there are two ways that selling goes horribly wrong. OK, one, being up against a deadline. Two, having only one option. and that's what happened to Newcastle. I'm talking here about Elliot Anderson. Elliot Anderson, last day of the accounting window, have to sellings from Nottingham Forest, have to take a Greek goalie they didn't want, don't even get a sell on clause. A disastrous sale. Lessons learned by David Hopkinson and Ross Wilson. Never again are we going to be up against a deadline when a player is probably going to go or have to go.
39:34Henry:OK, have to go this summer, at least one or two. Different regime now, isn't there? So they've learned the lessons. So Gordon, really early, done in May, and got themselves some competition between Bayern and Barca, and they get£70 million. Both of us thought, what a good number that is. Decent sale. Ditto Tonali. Early in the window. We love him. Great lad. Stood by him. He wants to go. De Zerbe's put the squeeze on him. They got a bit of a link from Brescia. It's a question of getting top dollar. Now look at Villa. They had their own Elliot Anderson moments. Dougie Luiz, last day of the window to Juve.
40:12Henry:Terrible sale. Didn't work out for Dougie and Juventus, indeed ended up coming back. But nobody at Villa was pretending that that was a great sale. You know, way below what he was really worth. Jacob Ramsey, last day of the window. So Newcastle really upset fans and some of his colleagues. He's a homegrown lad. OK, this summer looks to me that Villa learnt their lessons. They said this year, look, we have to have a big sale to enable Unai to keep building our squad. UEFA ain't letting us sign anybody unless we have a sale. Who's our most valuable asset? It's Morgan. Morgan's a very ambitious boy.
40:48Henry:We're going to have a grown up conversation with Morgan and his people. We'll let you go for this summer. if the number's well into the ones and you're happy with the club. So they got ahead of it and they've executed an incredible sale. Take me to Bruno. That's the interesting question. Okay. So in my opinion, Newcastle deep down, no. Long before this regime, Eddie knows, Eddie's old school. If a player has basically said they want to go, there are very few managers even old school managers who want to keep them there are in fact old school managers like Pep Guardiola who instantly say I want him gone just a golden rule I don't want anybody in the building who doesn't want to be here on Bruno he has definitely signaled that he'd like to go okay that's out there and and so you know I'm sitting now in that boardroom I'm the new Newcastle management regime.
41:51Henry:I'm saying to myself, we need to know one way or another. We've learned the lesson that with Ezek is a much better comparison here. OK, so it's not a sale that's forced to comply with financial regulation. With Tonali and Gordon, their financial regulations are now good. OK, this is different. This is absolutely comparable to Alexander Ezek. star striker head turned by Liverpool we're not selling him we're keeping him guess what most of us thought if Liverpool want him the boy's going to go they held on they got top dollar but it was a disaster because by the time they let Isak go they'd missed out on their top five targets to replace him the fact that Arsenal haven't spent that money on Morgan Rodgers they know I take your point it stands money as much as the fans money but Newcastle know that Arsenal have money and they didn't they've missed out on one of their big targets already.
42:46Henry:Yeah, that's a relevant factor. And that will inflate the feet. I don't know if it inflates the feet. I think they don't want Bruno to go for all the reasons you've said. It's a real loss, OK? This is not a compliance with FFP, mature, grown-up conversation, as I think happened between Newcastle and Anthony Gordon and between Villa and Morgan Rogers' people. This is your captain, your most popular player, who is looking at another year not in the Champions League and the champions have expressed an interest in him. And it's just a good old-fashioned, it's happened throughout the ages where a bigger club wants to nick the best player from a less big club.
43:28Henry:OK, I'm sorry to use that old-fashioned terminology, but that's what we're talking about here. And the player has said, you know what, I fancy it. And Eddie and the management at Newcastle, I think know deep down that it's going to be really difficult to stop that happening. They don't want a sort of, you know, this to be another EZAC where it plays out through the rest of July, strays into August, new season starts and then they're left without Bruno in the last week of August before Arsenal get to the number. And I think they'll be saying to Arsenal, if you want to do it, this is the asking price, pay it, we're big boys, we'll get on with it and we'll replace him and we'll get a new person in and they'll be in time for pre-season.
44:10Henry:That seems to be where it's headed. And however sad that will be for Newcastle fans, the reality of football is those sorts of deals have always happened. And I think Newcastle are really irritated that it's been bubbling under through the media, through intermediaries. And I think they'll be close to picking the phone up to us and say, look, man up, tell us what your number is, if you want the player, and we'll tell you what the number is. If you hit the number, it's done. If not, you know, go away politely and let's both get on with our lives. And what happens if Arsenal hold their nerve and keep their wallet in their pocket and say, well, actually, we're just going to do it at 70, knowing the player wants to move?
44:49Henry:I think you think they'll move up. I think no. I'm saying to you that there will be a conversation between Newcastle and Bruno's representatives. And that conversation will be, you know, we don't welcome this. We really want the player to stay. We respect the fact that he wants the move, but only on our terms. And those terms are X. And if Arsenal will pay those terms, we'll reluctantly have to agree to them. But one cent than that, you're staying, Bruno. And I think Bruno and his people will say, fair enough. Let's see if they'll pay it. In other words, they won't go to the next level. to use a very, very media phrase, the next level would be more player agitation, i.e.
45:37Henry:trying to persuade your current club to accept a lower price than that club really wants. I don't think we'll see that here. It's not really Bruno's style? I don't think so. I could be wrong, but he really is a very popular player at the club, Club captain doesn't want to go down that road. You don't see it that often, H. So my prediction is a more grown-up chap behind closed doors. And if they're not going to hit the price, then it won't happen. Yeah, so we need to wrap it up. But can I just leave on one particular note? What does the losing Rodgers mean to Unai Emery at a club you know well?
46:20and what does losing Gordon Tonali and probably Bruno Gomes mean to Eddie Howe in terms of their future at those two individual clubs?
46:32Henry:Well, I'll defer to you on like-for-like replacement questions, but I think it's very interesting that you link those two because they really are linked in some of the core themes that on this show we really spend a lot of time thinking about. And that is the two biggest challenger clubs, Villa and Newcastle, with extremely ambitious and extremely well-financed ownership, more or less, let's be frank, being forced to sell their best players for a combination of regulatory reasons and good old-fashioned commercial advantages of the big six because the rules favour those clubs with commercial superiority.
47:14Henry:And I think that's pretty sad that we're sitting here looking down the barrel of two challenges clubs who are going to have to replace their best players. And, you know, Villa haven't just lost Morgan Rodgers, but Tielemans has gone to Manchester United and Luca Dina's gone, I believe, back to Paris. So three starters gone. Newcastle, I mean, blimey, it's even more extreme. You know, really, their three best players in Tonali, Anthony Gordon and maybe Bruno. So you tell me, let's start with, you know, you start with Morgan, the lad from Switzerland is, I think I read, is, quote, the direct replacement.
47:52Henry:Don't know the player. Yeah. Yeah. Well, he's more sort of eight or ten. I don't think. How do you replace a guy who can play in five positions? There you go. Yeah. And 25 goal involvements, H. Yeah. Morgan was 25 goal involvements at Premier League level. Yeah. No wonder he's over 100. How do you replace that? The answer is not with one player. Yeah. With several. But just, you've worked with managers in situations like this. How do you think Unai will be feeling? Well, I think Unai is, you know, the most ambitious manager in the league. I don't think he would have tolerated a situation where very little happened in the summer.
48:30Henry:In other words, he's a manager who'll always be looking to improve. He will have known that the financial regulation straitjacket that UEFA have on them meant if he wanted anyone in, then he had to get people out. And as I've said, I think it was probably a pretty grown up arrangement that that would be Morgan and a few others, too. I don't know whether Tielemans was in the plan or not. You know, that clause that gets him to Man U. Yeah, I'm not 100 percent convinced that they would have wanted to lose him either. But I think the answer is he'll back himself to use the proceeds and go again. I'd be fascinated to see how he works with Garnaccio because if he can get a fantastic player, which there still is in Garnaccio in terms of the pace, final ball you can work on, he's only 22.
49:20So that is going to be a sign of what a good manager he is. And Villa are a magnificent club, but he is a top level manager. So you want to make sure that he's happy going into the start of the season. And for Eddie at Newcastle, finally, do you think there'll be an element of frustration? And also, I know you think everything in my life revolves around England. But interestingly, if Tuchel hadn't signed that two-year extension, Eddie Howe would probably be the headlines. We've been all over Eddie Howe to succeed Tuchel now because he's that highly regarded.
49:52Henry:Yeah, you know, highly I regard him. I'm just going to say for now, because we've got a long summer ahead. I think the situation at Newcastle is extremely interesting and I look forward to digging in more to that. We have to because they need to get two midfielders in and probably two full backs in. I'm alluding to a lot more than that. I think the... What, in terms of ownership? No, just the project. I think the project feels to me like it is different. I think the realisation that financial regulation really does make ambitions to make Newcastle the biggest team in English football and the biggest team in Europe more dream than real.
50:38Henry:And I think that goes to the heart of the Saudi project, goes to the heart of their approach. And actually, fundamentally, because I know we rate him so highly, goes to the heart of the job description for Eddie Howe. and I think we should talk about that at a later date. Absolutely, that'd be a huge pod. It's great to have you back. Yeah, good to see you in the flesh. And there's so many questions. I really want you all to understand that we read everything you send. Not only will we get to answering those questions directly on the show, but it really does inform the topics we cover. So please keep sending in your emails, keep commenting on social and of course, please subscribe and we'll see you next week.
51:22Thank you.
From the publisher
The British transfer record has been broken again. This time the player is Morgan Rogers and the buying club is Chelsea.
What are the domino effects of the deal, not just for the Blues, but for the selling club Aston Villa and Arsenal, who missed out?
Christian and Henry take a deep dive into the dynamics of an intriguing transfer and assess what it says about the clubs involved and how they do business, debunking a few myths along the way.
Plus, we do talk about Bruno- specifically, does the Rogers move make Bruno Guimaraes’s possible Newcastle exit even more likely?
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