What next for West Ham and Spurs? | The Football Boardroom

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1:00Henry:Welcome to the Football Boardroom This week we kick off with West Ham Nuno's staying But what does that tell us about the new power dynamics Behind the scenes We look at Spurs The Deserby rescue's complete Now it's time for the Deserby rebuild But who's really calling the shots behind the scenes We hope you enjoy the show

1:25Christian, it's good to see you You're looking like a Florida golfer this time next week when I should be in here with you. I will be watching England train in the probably Everglades or somewhere in Florida. I'm going to miss you, but I think we're still staying in contact doing the weekly pods.

1:42Henry:Yeah, I feel a bit sad. This is our last face-to-face for seven weeks because you're going to be swanning around America at the World Cup, leaving little old me here keeping an eye on boardroom matters in the Premier League. And as ever, there's so much to talk about. And I was at the LMA Awards last night. Congratulations to all the big winners. Mikel Arteta, Frank Lampard won the Sir Alex Ferguson trophy and the championship trophy. And it was all these great managers in the room. And also there's a lot of talk about what is happening at West Ham. And we find out this morning as we come into the studio that Nuno Espirito Santo is staying.

2:24The club have released a statement. and I remember talking to you on a previous pod about West Ham and about the whole power sharing between the two owners, co-owners effectively now, David Sullivan and Daniel Kutinsky. Yeah, you called it... One car, two steering wheels. Well, I had my noddy head on. And I just think that how is that going to work? Is it signed off by the board? but actually do you think both of them generally wanted this? Is this a decision that's driven more by Kratinsky, Nuno staying? What's your take on that? Because you know these characters. Well, you're quite right.

3:08Henry:We did talk a month ago about Nuno and the fact that we felt it was highly likely that in the scenario where they were relegated, really for both the club and Nuno, it made sense to have this idea of a sort of mutual walk away. that the club could have said, look, we can't really pay you the going rate for someone at your level in the Championship. What's he on, roughly? Seven or eight million in the Premier League. Can't have that in the Championship. Exactly. And from Nuno's perspective, as we said, he's a guy who certainly sees himself as an elite tier one manager in the Premier League and would expect to be in the shortlist for almost all the jobs in the Premier League.

3:46Henry:Certainly anything maybe outside the big six. You rate him that highly? Well, I think, more importantly, I think his agent, George Mendez and himself, rate himself that highly and his track record is pretty good. And I think that's really the point about this decision. So from a start point where I think 48 hours ago, most of us thought that Nuno would be going, that both sides would probably think that made sense. It crossed my mind, and I think it may have come to pass, that this is the first moment where the power sharing arrangements I discussed a month ago with you, namely that following a change to the ownership percentages at West Ham, where David Sullivan, who for years has been in effective complete control of West Ham, largest shareholder with 37%, in partnership with his great mate David Gold, well over 50%.

4:39Henry:a 15-year era of soul control. Gold, obviously, sadly passed away. Passed away. And there's some debate over the shares. And what we believe has happened is that Daniel Kratinsky, the outside investor who came in in 2021, has stepped up from 27 % to 40%. And David Sullivan's, a modest increase from 37 % to 40%. So two reference shareholders, 40 % each. And we talked about what that power sharing would mean. that in essence, the price of Kratinsky increasing his shareholding would for sure be more influence, more power, more control over the crucial issues affecting the business. And appointments probably being the most important of all.

5:27Henry:So I think we can safely assume that for the first time since Daniel arrived, there would have been a really genuine to and fro between Sullivan and Kratinsky on the first question post-relegation, what are we going to do about Nuno? And if I was Kratinsky and I have, you know, let's put it this way, the way I think about business is probably more like Kratinsky. He's a professional investor, textbook approach to investing in businesses, management teams, growing the value of companies. That's the way I was trained. I think he'd have looked at Nuno and said, he's been in the business now a year.

6:04Henry:He's settled in. Yes, there's been good and bad, but on balance, he's done a pretty good job. 39 points would normally have kept you up. 25 points out of the last 17 games. Still relegated. I know he got relegated, but I think he would say for sure his track record in terms of points per game, his track record in what he's done here, certainly in the last few months, he'd be the best coach in the championship by some way. And he knows it. Obviously having got Wolves out of there. He did. 99 points. Correct. We call that relevant experience track record on the job in hand, getting straight back out of the championship.

6:42Henry:So I just had this feeling that Kratinsky would come to that conversation with Sullivan saying, I think we need to explore a way to make Nuno stay. Now the glaring issue would have been compensation. And we're going to talk about money. We always talk about money. And as you rightly said, H, there's no way that they could sustain an eight, seven, eight million pound basic salary in the championship where, as everyone knows, they've got massive cash liquidity issues. Take me to the boardroom there. What would you do in that situation in terms of the pure negotiating with Nuno? Is it a bonus? Yeah, I think I'd have been saying to Nuno and his agent, you know, we like you.

7:24Henry:We've all got to know each other. Obviously, it's going to be a dramatic summer of change and we need to talk about what that means, Henry. But the start point would have been we need to anchor some things down and anchoring the coach down. Maybe that's the first thing we need to get right, Nuno. And we want to explore with you a deal to make you stay. Yes, we can't meet your terms on basic pay, but maybe there's a way with really aggressive bonus structures to reward you if you get us out of the championship quickly. I'm thinking, I mean, I know you're going to pin me. I'm thinking maybe, look, average championship salaries would probably be in the high hundreds to the million level.

8:08Henry:There's no way he's staying at that level. he's currently on seven or eight maybe a 50 % reduction to three or four million of basic pay making him by far the best paid manager in the championship but the opportunity to make that four million back maybe a bit more if you get us promoted automatically maybe a little bit less if you get us promoted through the playoffs because Henry let's be clear they may not agree on very much Kratinsky and Sullivan you couldn't have two more different people and we should explore that but one thing they can agree on for sure is the utter criticality of bouncing straight back up because the issues they're already facing, the need for money to be injected into the club, we talked about the fact the auditors said there needs to be meaningful cash injection.

8:55Henry:That just got harder with relegation and if they don't get out of the league, it gets even harder in 12 months' time. So I think that would have been the kind of deal that would have been put. And I don't know whether David Sullivan would have started there, but it would appear that they've agreed if we can get him to do that kind of deal, Nuno should stay. Because there was suggestion that Scott Parker or Gary O 'Neill obviously played alongside each other at West Ham in the past. And obviously Gary's in Strasburg and Scott Parker is available if he was interested. So that would have been a cheaper option.

9:33Henry:I certainly expected Nuno to leave and I expected to see a promotion expert. It would have been the easiest decision in the world to get Scott Parker. He's had a phenomenal track record getting teams out of that league. He did go down with West Ham winning Footballer of the Year. True. All I know is that, again, relevant recent experience for the job in hand. He would have been the standout candidate with a connection to the football club, with a more reasonable salary expectation. and this is the key point and I think this is the question that we need to dig into on Nuno staying. We cannot forget that the summer ahead is a summer where for lots of reasons but the most pressing one being financial and the need for cash lots of players have to leave West Ham.

10:22Because of the 105 million losses that they the record losses which they announced but also because as you always keep telling me the huge cost of relegation. How much is it going to cost them?

10:35Henry:Revenues will be down the best part of£100 million. This is a club that lost£100 million in the Premier League. But my point about Nuno versus, for example, Scott Parker, I think we should explore those two alternatives. Keeping an elite Premier League manager used to working with elite players, let's face it had some very tricky issues at Nottingham Forest on recruitment fell out with the sporting director may have fallen out with the owner and this is going to be a really difficult summer and I find it interesting to imagine in the power structure at West Ham how Nuno is going to handle losing not one or two but four, five, six maybe eight of his best players But he must know that.

11:26He must know. Fernandes is already being linked with other clubs. You look at Bowen is being linked with other clubs. Somerville is being linked with other clubs. He must know there's going to be a talent drain.

11:38Henry:Yeah, but the question is, will he know just how deep that's going to go? I suspect it needs to be, as I say, virtually a new team. That's what I expect to see, virtually a new team. and the second piece of the puzzle for Nuno is who's going to do that work because it's not just about getting players out it's about getting players in this is where you know my hobby horse Henry there's a triangle coming there's a triangle coming and it seemed to me okay four weeks ago this is not you know reactive this is proactively I said to you a month ago that given even in the Premier League there was a radical need for restructuring the squad to meet this cash requirement given that Kratinsky and Sullivan had sorted out their ownership and basically also committed to the auditors that they would put money in if needed but plan A would be player sales given that costs were high given that losses were high there was indeed not only a need to get players out but I think a meaningful need to reduce overheads in the broader club a month ago it was clear to me they needed an elite sporting director to oversee a dramatic rebuild of the team seven or eight outs seven or eight ins I don't I think that's too much for for a 78 year old owner to do on his own and secondly an elite chief executive to oversee a restructuring program at head office, given they've lost one of the most respected CEOs in football in Karen Brady.

13:23Henry:Two appointments, CEO, sporting director, to work alongside the manager, who we now know is Nuno. OK, and as yet, neither of those appointments have been made. But sorry, just on Sullivan, what expertise has he got to be involved in recruitment? Well, a different way of experience is certainly no doubting how long he's been in the game. Everyone in the game knows, including me. Yeah, but I've been involved in the game 40 years as a journalist, but I wouldn't have me picking players. Don't laugh. But, you know, sorry, we had Paul Barber on last week with Jamestown Analytics, and they have these incredibly bright 22, 23-year-olds, just like you were when you came out of Cambridge and you were heading off to Harvard.

14:10Amazing forensic minds, mathematically smart, data-driven, very aware, and it's the appliance of science. What is the appliance going on at a club which basically has David Sullivan almost picking the squad? Where is that expertise? The financial institutions you've worked at, you wouldn't have that. You wouldn't have the chairman who wasn't an expert in certain fields going in and saying, we can do that. Their data, lack of data, their recruitment, it's also been compounded by the fact if you've had four or five managers and those four or five managers going in quick succession want to bring in their own players you look at that that is an imbalanced squad and you've got players who shouldn't be there like Fulcrook when he was there there is no grown up thinking at that club and I know we're going to come on to Tottenham Hotspur later and the fact that they are trying to address some of those issues which have held them back on recruitment But West Ham is even worse.

15:16They have to appoint these right people. But would you trust David Sullivan to appoint the right person as a sporting director? And Kaczynski, as you keep mentioning, he's been quite a silent partner so far. But do you sense that he is taking more and more control?

15:35Henry:I do. And that has to be good news for West Ham United. Well, listen, let's balance expertise experience. So David Sullivan's been in the game donkey's years, okay? What's he like? You've met him. Is he a bit odd? I don't know him very well. Let's just say I've been in their boardroom many, many, many, many times. He keeps himself to himself. So I don't know him very well, but I know his profile, I know his background and the word. He's certainly experienced, okay? He's been around the game a very long time, knows the agent world very well. Some would say too well, but he knows the game. And Daniel's new to the game.

16:10Henry:Kratinsky's new to the game. But, yeah, you're kind of emphasising maybe a more analytical, a more business-orientated approach. Certainly Kratinsky will bring that. And I passionately believe, I'm certain, okay, that Kratinsky in now stepping up his ownership, let's go back to basics, money, okay? Kratinsky bought a quarter of this club for 150, 160 million quid. What's it worth now? And that valued West Ham at 600 million. It ain't worth 600 million today. So Kratinsky's down. The record price, I think, in the championship is probably 150 million quid for a club. So West Ham's a bigger club than's been in that league for donkey's years.

16:50Henry:They're not selling. But all I'm telling you is right now, to use a very, very investor-orientated concept, if Daniel Kratinsky is marking to market the value of his equity in West Ham, it's down a lot. and he's just had to up his investment to buy out a chunk of the gold family equity. So my point, Kratinsky is definitely, he may be a sphinx, he may be quiet, he may be inscrutable. He's definitely being more hands-on on this investment now because it's going wrong. And I think he will be demanding professionalised management. He will be demanding an experienced technical or sporting director who, by the way, knows the job in hand.

17:34Henry:I keep coming back to it. It's not rocket science. Just listen to what you're saying. What you're saying is extraordinary. He said, well, they should bring in professionals. How have West Ham United, you know, a Premier League club with all that experience around them at other clubs, how have they not done this before? Because when Kratinsky bought his equity in 2021, they're flying high. Moisey's in there doing his stuff, the top end of the league, not long after they win a trophy. It all looked rosy in the garden. He's getting a quarter of a London club in a stadium on the deal of the century.

18:10Henry:What's not to like? Karen Brady, very respected executive in there, probably being, I think she was the bridge between Solomon Gold and Kratinsky. It all looked all right. And he took a view. I'm getting in on the ground floor. I'll have a look at it for a few years. Maybe then I make my move and step up and become. Is now the time for him to make his move? No. Because this. Because Sullivan won't sell because the price has gone down. No, because I think right now the club is in a parlous position. It's a much less attractive club to own today than it was five years ago because it's just got relegated, H.

18:46Henry:And that means the revenues are dramatically down. The losses are dramatically up. They're facing turmoil in terms of their playing squad. So, no, I think what they have done is said, Sullivan Kratinsky, look, nobody else is going to buy a stake in the club right now with all this coming. It's on us, OK? we're both going to step up to 40 percent we're up this summer is on us and we're going to have to agree a lot i called it power sharing we're going to have to agree who's going to lead us back who's going to coach sullivan will have been saying probably i know my way around this league been there done it before i'll get the players out i agree with you that it has been the david sullivan show for most of the last 15 years on and off okay they experimented with a sporting director from Germany.

19:33Henry:It was a disaster. I think objectively, since that guy moved out, some of the business has been reasonable. OK, I think last January, most of us thought it was reasonable. OK, got players out. Tati Kassel. It was all right. OK, but not enough. And the volume of work that needs to be done this summer. And it's the hardest work in football. It's selling good, ideally for top prices when all the vultures are circling and saying, you're a forced seller. You're desperate. We're not paying top dollar. take it or leave it not easy to sell in that environment I think David could handle some of that but finding replacements to build a team to get you out of the championship that is a complicated job that needs an expert and needs somebody who knows that market who knows how who knows exactly what good looks like in getting teams out of the championship and all I'm saying to you is Kratinsky will have as a minimum price for stepping up his ownership in this club be demanding those sorts of additions to the management line-up, as well as, I think, as I've said to you, strengthening the executive office here because the club's got to restructure.

20:42Henry:Whether they both started in the place that Nuno's the man, I somehow doubt, but it's promising that they sorted that pretty quickly. My issue is, let's say they don't agree on the sporting director. Let's say David does say, leave it to me. I know what I'm doing. Leave it to me. there's no way Kratinsky's saying that's okay he's saying absolutely no way okay I've just bought 13 % of the club okay I'm down on the value of my state I'm getting a professional sporting director in quite right totally but now the problem let's say that sporting director comes in and Nuno don't like him what happens next shit show is the answer to that question Don't you think a lot of those conversations, and those conversations did go on for a while before this announcement about Nuno staying, don't you think that would have taken part of those conversations, Nuno's involvement?

21:40And obviously, as you say, he's got Jorge Mendes, who's such a powerful agent. Whether he would necessarily be interested, look, he's got amazing contacts and knows the game, absolutely. But whether he is the man to bring in players in the championship when actually... George. Which, yeah.

21:56Henry:No chance. No, because he's elite level. Yeah, absolutely. He doesn't get out of bed for footballers under 50 million because the commission's not enough. I'm sorry. I know. He's a mate. I love him. But he's elite, elite, elite. He's Cristiano. He's not, you know, whatever. But the point I'm driving at is that won't Nuno have a chunk of responsibility and have negotiated that in the preceding 36 hours? These guys aren't amateurs, okay? Of course, in these conversations. what's the plan okay what's the plan Paul I remember Paul Barber last week so many things that are relevant to this chat as you say player turmoil is so expensive if you have four managers in a season and a half and everyone gets to pick two you send it up you've suddenly got eight players none of whom were right for each other so that is why this struck that's one of the reasons why there's a major rebuilding job I'm absolutely the other thing that Barber said really important is make sure your manager knows the rules of the game before he agrees to be the manager.

22:56Henry:And I'm certain that the ownership will have said to Nuno, look, we want you to stay. We want you to get us out of the league. We'll pay you for getting us out of the league. Of course, we're not putting anybody in this building that you haven't signed off on. Okay? But a lot have to go because we need the liquidity. He knows that and he signed up for that. And yes, of course, you get to have a key seat at the table on the rebuild who we get in to get out of the league. But we all know that the manager can't do that work himself. He has to work hand in glove seamlessly with a fellow professional who goes and does the business.

23:35Henry:When Nuno says, I need a right-sided attacker who cuts in off the right with his left peg and will get me 10 to 15 in the championship. I need an out and out nine. I need a DCM because he's going, you know, I need to replace Gerrard if he goes. Profiles what he needs. and here's a few names, the sporting director's jobs to go and make that happen. And that has to be on a basis of trust and respect. And all I'm saying to you is where you've got two owners who may not agree on the profile of that person, they may not even agree on that person. One of the things that really causes issues is almost when it's a, you have your guy and I'll have my guy.

24:18Henry:So owner A, you know, I get to pick the coach, you get to pick the sporting director. I've seen that. Two scenarios for you. What happens if Nuno gets an offer from a middle-ranking Premier League club who just offloaded their head coach in October or November? First scenario. What happens then? That really is a zinger. It's not unrealistic. I happen to think he would appear on any shortlist for a Premier League club in trouble. He's a 1.4, 1.5 point a game man. That is the risk they're taking by keeping with Nuno I understand the logic of keeping with Nuno in terms of the Wolves connection in terms of rebuilding I think it's one of the two key risks And then you get Scott Parker coming in in October, November anyway and you've lost three months I think it's, listen I think again this is a serious agreement with a serious manager with a very serious investor in Kratinsky and Sullivan too with Mendez they're all in the room that will have been discussed.

25:21Henry:I think we can safely assume, OK, the contractual agreement will make that pretty expensive for somebody in the Premier League. Right. In terms of the compensation to get him out of there. Yeah, this will be... What are we looking at? Sort of Brighton Chelsea levels? No, no, no, no. But certainly, certainly several million will be. But a club will pay that. That's nothing. That's what they pay agents. They might do. They might not. and I'm not saying it wouldn't happen. I'm certainly not saying if it starts badly and I'm worried before we even get to October. I just feel concerned that the sequencing is a little bit out here, okay?

25:59Henry:Normally, your ideal scenario is that your chief executive and sporting director appoint the manager and the triangle is now intact with three people, complementary skills, mutual respect, mutual recognition of who does what. and what I see here is a genuine chance that in the next days or weeks I just got to believe a new sporting director is going to arrive at West Ham and if Nuno hasn't been involved in that, that relationship might not work and indeed David Sullivan is always going to be Johnny on the spot Kratinsky's got the Royal Mail, he's got the biggest supermarket chain in France He's got Sainsbury's.

26:42Henry:He's got energy companies up the wazoo in Central Europe. This is a busy man. He's not a hands-on David Sullivan, much more hands-on. So David Sullivan, Nuno, and a new sporting director, who we don't yet know yet, are those three going to rub along in a summer where it is the most demanding summer the club's faced in 15 years? I am just saying there's potential for that to go wrong. So it sounds like the sort of dysfunctional family that we normally see on EastEnders. Can I throw one other thing to you when we were talking about scenarios? Is it a doomsday scenario if they don't come back at the first attempt?

27:18Henry:Things get really difficult if that happens because a club with West Ham's underlying infrastructure and overhead, even in a scenario where they pay less rent for their stadium, a lot of people are making a big deal out of that, by the way, your average championship club age is losing£20 million to£30 million a year. or clubs that are trying to get themselves out of the championship, let's put it that way. West Ham will lose that or more because they're a bigger club than anybody in the championship. Bigger in the worst sense of that world. They've got bigger outgoings than your average championship club.