Which England players will move this summer and where will they go? | The Football Boardroom

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0:30Henry:Welcome to the Football Boardroom. This is our first post-season show and Henry is embedded in the England camp down in Florida, getting ready for the World Cup kick-off. We're going to talk about all those England players that may be on the move this summer. Who are they? Where do we think they're going and why? But before we get to that, we're going to talk about the big breaking news overnight, Irreola to Liverpool. Please don't forget to subscribe. We're going to be putting episodes out throughout the World Cup and we don't want you to miss them. Really hope you like the show.

1:07Henry:CP, hi. Welcome from Florida. It's great to see you, H, and you're in Donald Trump country. I saw you had a jog last night down towards Mar-a-Lago. Did you survive the Secret Service? Yeah, I mean, I don't know how close you can get, and also the humidity here is absolutely quite lively. but I mean I have to say World Cup fever hasn't quite hit this state which is actually hosting one or two fairly important games it's all Stanley Cup it's all NBA there's even been a little bit of polo going on on the screen above me otherwise it's Knicks against the Spurs and it's not the Spurs that we've been talking about on previous podcasts so I'm sure it'll ramp up but England are out here warm weather training and looking I have to say in fantastic shape Well, look, I think for our audience benefit, it's going to be fantastic having you more or less embedded in the camp.

2:02Henry:And I guess this is the first of our summer shows where we're going to make sure you stay across everything on that side of the pond. Little old me, I'm here in quite a cold and cloudy England. The weather has turned and yet the activity in the Premier League is still pretty full on. And, of course, the biggest news in the last 24 hours is that Liverpool seem extremely close to confirming Iriola as their new coach. Yeah, and I think it's terrific news for them. Obviously, it was a bit of a shock when Arnest's slot left. The timing of it, I think, as much as anything, I think it was pretty significant that the fans had turned.

2:46And they do sound like, I mean, you know the owners. They do sound like owners who do listen. We've seen them react to fans before ticket prices and issues like that. I think Mo Salah's comments, which probably reflected the views of a lot of the fans, as well as clearly his own dissatisfaction with the direction of travel and particularly the style of football, the lack of heavy metal, harking back to the much-loved Jurgen Klopp days. But there needs to be a little bit of perspective. I mean, Arslaught did win the title in his first season. He was voted manager of the year in his first season.

3:22There were mitigating circumstances in terms of the terrible tragedy over Diogo Jota, injuries of some of the players. But look, the club gave him a lot of money and the team went backwards.

3:33Henry:Yeah, well, I think a couple of things you mentioned there. The issue of the fans, you know this better than most. You know, I got my job at Liverpool in 2008-09 because I was a Liverpool fan and two totally unsuitable Americans had bought the club, basically. Hicks and Gillette. Yeah, Hicks and Gillette, essentially on a copycat leveraged buyout, you know, borrowing a load of money, copying what the Glazers had done at Man United. Unlike Man United, Liverpool got in financial trouble when results weren't quite there and fans weren't having it. and I got put in as a fan to get rid of them. And so I've always felt that Fenway know better than any owners just how damaging it can be if you lose the fans, certainly at Liverpool Football Club.

4:23Henry:Arguably, their opportunity to buy the club came from the fact that previous owners had so alienated fans they had to go. And so, yes, whilst they don't always get it right first time up, they do seem to listen. And it was very clear, I think several months ago, actually, that the fans weren't having the football under Arna Slott. And that was a big factor. That said, you've talked about timing. It was a bit strange because the messaging did seem to be consistently he was going to get more time. That changed on the back end of last week, really quite dramatically. And my suspicion is that, contrary to, again, what we're reading, seeing Chelsea move so quickly to grab Alonso would have been a bit disconcerting.

5:11Henry:He would have featured on any shortlist for the Liverpool team. Because he's a very good coach or because he's this Liverpool legend? Both. He's a title-winning manager in Germany, one of the most elite footballers of the modern game. World Cup winning, Champions League winning, title winning player, as well as making a brilliant start to his coaching career. So he would have been on any short list. And I have to say, speaking, you know, speaking as somebody who knows the way Liverpool fans think, he would have been top of many people's list. And he went to Chelsea and fair play to Chelsea. They haven't got a lot right this season.

5:49Henry:But I think they turned the tables all those years ago, I remember, when Liverpool moved extremely quickly to sign Jurgen Klopp, when they sensed that Chelsea might be moving on him. And even though it's quite a long time ago, history's repeated itself. I think Chelsea moved really quickly the morning after the FA Cup. They announced Alonso going there. And I think that left Liverpool's options narrowing if at the end of the season they were going to decide to move Slott out. They were still briefing that they were keeping him. But then last week, back into last week, probably the other person who would have been top of a shortlist, Iriola was rumoured to be talking A to Leverkusen in Germany B to AC Milan in Italy and I think probably when push came to shove they thought if this guy lands at one of these two clubs and if Arna Slott starts badly in the new season the two standout replacement candidates are going to be on long-term contracts at other clubs and not only would our options have narrowed they might have disappeared completely and I think that was a big factor more or less in changing their mind on slot and moving and I expect we'll see Areola confirmed later today.

7:08Yeah, it might be because I'm looking at things through World Cup prism being out here but do you think there was an element of it seems to be quite a few owners moving quickly to try and get their managerial business done before the World Cup and obviously it helps new managers settle in recruitment, pre-season I mean, I know two managers who are travelling around here, not working as pundits, but just keeping an eye on players and keeping an eye on their own players of the clubs that they oversee. But it does seem to me that clubs' owners are moving quickly.

7:41Henry:Well, I think we discussed, didn't we, for most of this season, the likelihood of a merry-go-round in the summer. And it was very significant, in my opinion, that by the end of May, the big six were all sorted. And indeed, Liverpool looked to be sorted by keeping Arnazlott and now have very quickly made that change. So we've talked about the fact it really is so important to have your coach in the building, working with the management team on the outs and ins that inevitably fill the diary in the summer. And whilst that will be different during the World Cup, World Cup years tend to affect the timing of the transfer market really hotting up.

8:27Henry:And I think we'll talk about that in a minute. But fundamentally, the sooner you have the manager there, the better. So there are a couple of other outstanding positions in the Premier League and we'll see how they land. But yes, Liverpool have moved extremely quickly in the last few days. We've been talking about Liverpool and obviously you know Kenny Dalglish very well. I've written two books with him. Obviously John Barnes, the news from him and Kevin Keegan as well. I mean, these are three Liverpool legends. I mean, I know we swap messages, but can I ask, you know, what's, I mean, you know Kenny particularly well.

9:09I mean, you know, Kenny's revealed effectively, inadvertently, that he's got cancer.

9:16Henry:Yeah, it was extremely shocking news when that broke. And I just wish him and his family all the best. Fighting this and a nice, speedy recovery. And of course, the same for two other huge club legends in John Barnes and Kevin Keegan. Yeah, a sobering moment yesterday when everybody was talking about the arrival of a new manager when that story broke. Absolutely sending support to the three of them. But as you say, very sobering moment, puts football and this great game that we love into perspective. We are at the stage of the season where managers are moving and players are moving. And one of the players I watched yesterday and looking very sharp, although he didn't get the number 10 shirt, which has gone to Jude Bellingham, but was Morgan Rodgers.

10:06And look, you know Aston Villa very well. It sounds from the sort of mood music last night is that they were going to fight to keep Morgan Rodgers. He's obviously been linked with Arsenal, who really needs someone on the left. I don't think, I mean, Martinelli, you know, he's not elite level. Morgan Rodgers can play there. He obviously can play more as a 10 as well. So there's a logic with Arsenal being linked to him. I mean, Aston Villa got an amazing deal when they brought him in from Middlesbrough. I think it was 8 million and then 6 million add-ons and then 500 ,000 if he appeared for England.

10:44And now he's absolutely first change at number 10 for England. So do you think when they come out with suggestions like that is that they were going to fight the keeping? Is that a sort of the negotiation dance to push the price high, which absolutely it should be? Or do you think that he will move?

11:04Henry:Well, I think the first thing to say about moves and moves linked to the people you're standing on the touchline watching in sweaty Florida is that I was struck by a statistic. I looked at the Euro 24 England lineup and squad. And after that tournament, none of the, let's see, the sort of view it as the starting 11 changed clubs and only three of the 26 changed clubs. I think it's worth pointing out that clubs over the years have been badly burnt by tournament purchasing. Karol Poborski. There's been many. I think Liverpool's most notorious was El Hadjouf after the 2002 World Cup, an almost perfect example of the genre.

11:49Henry:And so I think over a number of years, certainly speaking to other club execs, people are very wary about that phenomenon. So it doesn't follow that we will see a particularly active transfer window. But right now, talking about England players out there that you're watching, I think it's no coincidence that there's a lot of speculation about Morgan Rodgers. We have seen in the last few years a number of really top players, not at the big six, sold for regulatory reasons. And we've often seen it done at this time, i.e. in May or June. And just for our listeners' benefit, our audience's benefit, That is because in the case of a club that is really struggling to comply with Premier League rules on how much money they're allowed to lose in their financial year, most football clubs' year ends are May 30 or in some cases June 30.

12:51Henry:So if you need to boost your profits to comply with the Premier League rules, for the last five, six years, we've seen a number of clubs selling a player in May or June to balance the books. Again, examples we all know about, Elliot Anderson from Newcastle to Nottingham Forest was a very good example of that. And Villa themselves have had to do it over a couple of summers last year. It was Jacob Ramsey to Newcastle. And I think there was a narrative in the last couple of months that Villa might have to do the same thing. And by the way, last week, Anthony Gordon moved from Newcastle to Barcelona incredibly quickly after the season ended in May.

13:39Henry:And there's a good chance that was to help Newcastle boost their profits. Now, the good news for Villa fans, I'm not sure it's permanently good news, but the good news for Villa fans is I don't think there is pressure to do a deal this month for any Villa player. But I do think the less good news is that Villa, like Chelsea before them, have been operating with a UEFA financial fair play agreement. It's called a settlement agreement. And more or less, it means that they have to comply with some quite tight regulations, regulations that are tighter, actually, than the Premier League from UEFA. And practically speaking, Henry, what that means is if Unai Emery wants to change the squad, improve the squad, grow the squad, and managers like Unai Emery always want to do that, then I'm sorry to say that under these UEFA agreements, more or less, he'll have to move somebody out to bring anyone in.

14:46Henry:The nature of the agreement, think of it as balancing the book. If you want to bring a player in, you have to move somebody out for the same price and on the same salary. So that's where I think things are going to get interesting. This summer, probably when the World Cup's over, if Unai wants to make changes, and I think he will, then players will need to leave. And that brings us back to, you know, who in the marketplace is going to be the most desirable Villa players. And I think most people would say Morgan today is kind of like Jack was when I was there. He's the outstanding player. He's probably the most valuable player.

15:29Henry:I mean, if Jack went for 100 million pounds three, four years ago, why wouldn't Morgan? That will be the asking price or more. 100 million. I think it'll be at least 100 million pounds. And there's a sell-on to a cut that I think goes back to Middlesbrough. It's been reported at 20%, so they'll factor in that. Obviously, England players go for, you know, there's almost like a sort of luxury, inflationary element to England players. The other player, and again, I'm sorry for Villa fans who love this guy. No one loves him more than me. But I think Emi Martinez is a big, big earner at Villa. He always went last year, didn't he?

16:10Henry:He was heavily linked last year. Heavily, heavily linked. So true. And I sense again, if somebody actually came in for Martinez on reasonable transfer fee, then that would create a lot of headroom because they wouldn't have to pay a replacement goalie anything like the wages of a World Cup winning goalkeeper. So they're going to have to box clever. It's a terrible, terrible thought. But more or less, when you get in trouble with UEFA, it's even worse than the Premier League. It's kind of like the finance department of UEFA is running your transfer strategy. You know, hello, UEFA, I want to bring this fella in.

16:53Henry:And they say, yeah, well, who are you getting out? Nope, sorry, you can't. So let's not underestimate what the settlement agreements are like. And I describe it as a financial straight jacket, kind of like UEFA running your sporting director department. That's what Villa are going to have to cope with during and after the World Cup, not in the next couple of weeks. Just one thing on Arsenal, if Morgan Rodgers does go there, and it's someone close to the club mentioned this to me, he said that you look at Arteta, seems to be building an element of an English core there. I think this is what's most significant about Arsenal this summer.

17:33Henry:I just have this feeling that they will recognise the need to go again. Take a leaf out of Alec Ferguson's, but when he had title-winning sides, he used to call it, you know, cutting off the tallest wallflowers, going again, strengthening. And strengthening means with teams that have won the title and gone to the Champions League final, it doesn't mean having a deeper, broader squad. which was another strength of Arsenal this season, by the way. They did have depth and options. But I think the challenge now is to add world-class players who go straight into the starting 11. OK, so who? Just go out in the field this afternoon.

18:16OK, let's look at them.

18:18Henry:Marcus Rashford, you know, will he, won't he go to Barcelona? It's quite clear that, you know, Man United really don't want him to come back. You get no sense that that's on their agenda. So he's a top-class player who is certainly available. Elliot Anderson, we're going to talk about, he is certainly available for the right price and is likely to be an England starter at the World Cup. Would they be upgrades on what they've already got? Yeah, Elliot Anderson's an upgrade on Zubimendi, absolutely. Rashford is an upgrade on Martinelli. I mean, I quite like Trossard because he always chips in. He never lets you down.

18:59You take my point. I do take your point. But I think, well, let's take them one by one. I mean, you look at Rashford. Does Rashford want to come back to England? I mean, the only time I had a proper chat with him, his eyes were very much set on the continent. I think partly because of the scrutiny over in England, whether that's media, whether that's fans. I think the key to Marcus is seeing him play with a smile on his face. and he's been doing that at Barcelona. But look, you've been looking at the Barcelona situation with Rashford and obviously it's been complicated really by Anthony Gordon coming in.

19:34Anthony Gordon is not going to start ahead of Rashford for England judging by all the vibes from Thomas Tuchel who adores Rashford, whether it's going back to his PSG team getting taken apart by Rashford when he was in his Manchester United pomp. But Rashford in training, I mean, wow. I mean, I've never seen a collection of players. He gave him the number 11, I noticed, on the telly last night. He did. So talk me through that sort of where you see Rashford going.

20:03Henry:Okay, well, bear with me. I need to do some numbers here for our audience. You love your numbers. Crunch some numbers for me. Okay, so Marcus Rashford has two years to run on his Manchester United contract. Widely reported to be on about£325 ,000 a week, which means by the time you load in employee costs, employer costs, I should say, that's probably a 19 to 20 million pound a year cost to Manchester United. Put another way, if Marcus Rashford leaves, it's a 40 million pound saving. Big money for a club that has been trying to get its costs under control. So he went to Barcelona on loan. And that means simply that Barcelona picked up some or all of his salary this season.

20:51Henry:And right now, sitting here in the summer of 26, and by the way, Marcus, I think had 28 goal contributions for Barcelona. So has been a real success out there. The Gordon thing may complicate matters. It certainly makes Barcelona's interest less urgent, but I don't think it makes it any less likely that the most probable outcome here is that Barcelona and Man United find a new deal. And the question is what that deal is. If Barcelona want to play cute, they could sit and wait and try and get another year on loan, not have to pay a fee, maybe get some element of the salary, not all of it. but as I've sat thinking about that I really don't think that works for anybody in this deal because I think Flick will want to know his team a lot earlier than August the 31st I think Michael Carrick and Man United would like to know where they stand a lot earlier most importantly I think Marcus Rashford wants to settle and it's quite clear he's loving life at Barcelona so I think we may see a transfer Henry and that probably is one of these deals where everybody takes a little bit of pain.

22:11In other words, Marcus may have to take a pay cut.

22:16Henry:Manchester United may have to take a reduction on what they would expect to be paid as a transfer fee. And I think Barcelona are going to probably have to give Marcus a bit longer than they might otherwise have done. And when I add all that up, I call it the£10 million give-back deal. if Marcus was to take 5 million off his salary he's currently earning the best part of 16, 17 million quid if he took a 5 million pay cut for the last two years of his deal that's a 10 million contribution if Man United instead of getting 26 million the option took 15 million that's a 10 million reduction and if Barcelona give Marcus an extra year on the end at£10 million, maybe€13-40 million, that feels to me like the sort of deal that gets done.

23:07Henry:Three-year deal, maybe£10 million a year and a£15 million transfer fee. And I think that would suit all parties and that's what I expect to see happen. Yeah, well, I mean, it's great that we're discussing these talents who are being sought after by these great European clubs. It's also, it's good that they're going to play in the league where there's a winter break and they might get a breather and it will keep them fresh for the summer and for future tournaments, well, current and future tournaments for England. But it certainly added a little bit of extra intrigue, shall we say, to training, sort of the Barcelona dilemma.

23:46And yeah, there was a bit of banter about, oh, that's pure Barcelona when Gordon had one finish as well. And I'm sure Rashford will rise in a good way to that challenge. So just on, I mean, Arsenal have a vacancy on the left, but just on the balance of Arsenal, do you see some outgoings at Arsenal as well?

24:06Henry:Yeah, I definitely do. I think that, you know, you don't collect footballers and a well-run club definitely won't want to collect footballers. So if I'm right and Stan Kroenke and Josh Kroenke agree with Mikel, I noticed he was on the front foot pretty much in the post-match interviews that this is, you know, we get a day of celebration. but we go again and need to strengthen. Building dynasties in football and in sport is a multi-year commitment. That's what a dynasty is. It just continues to get better and continues to deliver year in, year out. There's an opportunity for Arsenal to do that.

24:44Henry:Their rivals, for various reasons, are in transition and Arsenal have been steadily improving under Arteta with steady ownership from Kroenke. So I expect them to go again. They will tidy up the squad and there will be more outs than ins, but maybe the quantity of outs will be higher, but the quality of ins, I think, will be much higher. And that's Berta's job. You don't hire a guy like Berta from Atletico Madrid to go and sign junior footballers and build out your academy programme. And last summer, I'm not sure whether they viewed it as squad depth I think they probably hoped a few of the signings would have made a bigger impact in the first 11.

25:31Henry:But this summer, I'm quite sure Arteta and Josh Kroenke will have said to Berta, go get us players that get in the starting 11. And by the way, on Rashford, as we were just talking about, Henry, you know, the fact that he is flying, the fact he's coming off some fantastic stats. I was looking at 28-year-old forwards, you know, what the normal transfer fees are. Harry Kane went for 85 million quid when he was 30. Antoine Griezmann went for the best part of 100 million when he was 28. Even Romelu Lukaku went for 85 million as a 28-year-old. So if you can pick up Marcus Rashford in the 15 to 25 million pound range on the back of 28 goal involvements for Barcelona, it's not just Barca who will be looking at him.

26:19Henry:And that's why I think a deal gets done, because there will be competition. we saw with Gordon if you get two big clubs in that's all you need for the price to move up and Bayern and Barca went after Gordon and Newcastle got a fantastic result so I think there'll be action around Marcus Rashford and it won't be because he's played well at the World Cup that's not the point it's because he's just had a really good year in Barcelona he's at his absolute peak Man United won him out the building I see a lot of interest in that you mentioned Michael Carrick and obviously you make quite rightly the point about Rashford, very, very unlikely to go back there.