Did a farmer foil a plot to attack a UK military base?

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1:21Reserve your spot with just$200 down at BKFSEA.com. There's a saying that goes back to the Cold War, that the UK is America's unsinkable aircraft carrier. For decades, the United States has used British air bases like the one in the south of England, RAF Fairford, for its operations in Europe, the Middle East, and most recently, Iran. But sometimes being America's friend is risky. In the early hours of Sunday morning, a major plot appeared to be unfolding outside that airbase. Five men were arrested and a robot searched three vans for explosives. On Monday, the five suspects were released on bail, but the police say they're still under investigation.

2:12The situation's becoming more confusing by the day. What's going on? From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redmond in London, and today on The Global Story, what were a group of men doing at an American airbase in Britain?

2:33Our guest today is Nick Oldworth. He's a former detective chief superintendent in UK counter-terrorism policing. Well, Nick, we're recording this at the end of the day here in London on Monday. This story has been dominating the headlines here and has made a fair few waves in the United States as well, it would seem. We've just seen that the suspects in this case have been released on bail. And we're going to get into that later to understand from you how that plays into all of this. But let's start the story from the beginning. It all centers around a UK Air Force base called RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, which is in the west of England, a couple of hours to the west of London, where I'm sitting.

3:15Now, the Cotswolds is where it is. It's currently a fashionable place for the great and the good of the United States to go. J.D. Vance was vacationing there recently. But then this thing happened late Saturday, early Sunday. Can you take us through step by step what actually happened and why police are portraying it as a possible plot against a UK air base? Well, I guess it's worth understanding as well what the relationship is between the US Air Force and the Royal Air Force and the UK generally. The United States Air Force operates a number of bases in the UK and they are known as Royal Air Force bases because they are our sovereign territory.

3:57but we allow the American Air Force to operate from them. And for many years, actually, I worked for the Royal Air Force myself and was also seconded to work with the United States Air Force at one of those bases. So I'm actually pretty familiar with these places. But ostensibly, once you're inside the wire, as an expression that people would use, they are like a little bit of America. You'll find bowling alleys and the sorts of things that we don't commonly find in UK Royal Air Force. bases. So this particular base is a big strategic base. For many years, it's been used as a staging post for American forces deploying to elsewhere in the world.

4:38You know, we're often likened to that little aircraft carrier just off Europe. And that's certainly through much of history is how we've been used by the United States Air Force. And earlier this year, the Americans sought permission to use Royal Air Force Fairford, as it's called, to deploy bombers as part of their operations inside a place in the Middle East, notably Iran. So in the early hours of the 27th of September, at about quarter to one in the morning, Gloucestershire police, who are the local police force for that area, received a report of three suspicious vans travelling towards or around Royal Air Force Fairford.

5:25Clearly understanding the nature of terrorist threats to military bases anyway, that would have raised their alarm quite quickly. And they responded very, very quickly to that event with armed officers. At some time after that, armed officers had stopped and arrested five men near the village of Welford, which is a small village on the edge of the airfield. A major incident next to RAF Fairford, one of America's most important overseas military bases. Emergency services from multiple agencies arrived in the village of Welford early yesterday morning. And at that point, the police had reason to arrest those individuals on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act, which is a fairly old piece of legislation in the UK.

6:18He's about 150 years old, but effectively makes it an offence to have with you or be concerned together with others in preparing and using and possessing explosives for malicious intent.

6:36it's been reported uh in the media that um the events of the last few days uh unfolded initially from a a woman who was returning home late at night from a party round about uh quarter to one something like that we suddenly saw a large group of men and they were panicking and i think the reason well i suppose they're panicking because anyone saw them she pulled along a road and she came across three white vans parked up in a in a way that was unusual and certainly unexpected for for that location at that time we had our lights on main beam because there wasn't another car so I think we sort of dazzled them and they started to run and some of them ran straight ahead across the road into the field and some turned and started going down towards Kempsford which is our next village and also a slightly more obvious part of the fence that runs along the airbase.

7:34And had later reports that she sees them peering back at her, possibly wearing balaclavas and looking at her from, you know, from the bushes and the surrounding area. It's at that point that she's obviously called the police. Having arrested those individuals for that, the police then set up a 400-metre cordon, and they evacuated about 85 households from the area as a means to keep them safe, while specialist officers from the military came using remote-controlled vehicles to actually investigate what was in those vehicles. What did they find? so uh at the moment that's not been declared that i'm aware of um and we can come back in a moment to uh the individuals being released on on bail but shortly after um those matters started to be investigated counterterrorism policing which is a separate agency which is an amalgamation of of specialist officers from up and down the country um took over the investigation and they would normally do that for a number of reasons.

8:43The main reason being that clearly if there were suspected terrorist offences disclosed, and the other reason being that by bringing in counterterrorism policing, we immediately open up the opportunities for investigations to be done in collaboration with our intelligence services. Okay, so the alarm was raised by a concerned local citizen, but did all of this come out of the blue? Were there any signs that the authorities were anticipating any kind of a plot or an attempted attack like this? Well, look, for a number of years now in the UK, our leaders, both in government and our intelligence services, and in particular, our MI5, which is our domestic intelligence agency, a little bit like the FBI operates in the US, concerned only with things happening inside the UK, they have been warning us that an attack was likely to happen.

9:43So they've been warning us that hostile states in particular were playing or paying an unhealthy attention to our facilities, our utilities, our military, and they've been warning us of proxy attacks, particularly from Russia against our own infrastructure. We've seen that manifest itself in the last couple of years. Stanislav Karpiuk, charged today with conspiracy in the alleged arsons linked to Sakir Starmer. He was charged on Thursday with setting on fire this car once owned by the Prime Minister, but sold to a neighbour last year, the door of this property in which the Prime Minister owned a flat in the 1990s, and the front of this house still owned by the Prime Minister, but rented to his sister-in-law.

10:30So these are threats that we've been aware of for a long, long time. But also there has for decades been a latent threat from terrorists towards the UK generally. But what about around RAF Fairford? Had there been anything happening there locally that led up to this? Well, there's certainly reporting that Fairford and other US military bases had taken enhanced measures to protect themselves. I've seen reporting of additional patrols in the area. I've seen reporting of heavy vehicles being placed across gates. But I'm not cited on anything official that has led us to believe there was specific information about an attack or a plot to attack Fairford or anywhere else specific for that matter.

11:18I mean, there were reports that some villagers said that they'd been told by armed police on Saturday evening to return home and stay indoors. Do you have any information on that? I don't. I think it's an interesting observation. And I guess the observation I might make on that is that may have happened. I think sometimes people also misremember timelines. I think it is unlikely that that sort of advice would be given out freely without some definitive cause as to why that would be taken. And there are a lot of mysteries around what's gone on, a lot of mysteries around what's gone on. On the one hand, you have a member of the public apparently reporting it, but then also claims, certainly by the US president, that this was part of an ongoing operation.

12:18So I think that we have to be very careful around what anybody says about any of the facts associated with this, because at the moment, there's been some fairly significant developments that lead me to believe that possibly things are not all that they seem. Now, I think it's highly likely that together, the UK and the US intelligence and investigating agencies are following a number of plots. I mean, there are typically 800 or so live investigations being investigated by counterterrorism policing and our intelligence services at any one time. And they vary in degree of severity. And generally speaking, most focus is given on those threats that are perceived to be of most immediacy and likely to cause harm.

13:07And of course, of those 800, a number will undoubtedly have an international element to them. So I think what people have said in the media probably reflects the general baseline of the sorts of investigations that are going on at any one time in the UK. We've seen convictions of people sponsored or facilitated by Russia in attacking a warehouse in East London, which contains Starlink satellite system components, which were being used by Ukraine to aid their war effort. And we've recently seen a conviction of individuals for setting fire to cars and other items belonging to our prime minister and his family.

13:53So Nick, this has been deemed a counter-terrorism investigation. It's been led by a unit called the CTP, Counter-Terrorism Policing in the UK. Now, if this was an attempted attack on a US or UK military base, is it actually, quote-unquote, terrorism? The definition of terrorism is the targeting of civilians for political means. But how would this alleged plot meet that definition? So that's not the legal definition for UK terrorism. Terrorism in the UK has three distinct components. First of all, you need to have an intent. And the intent is to influence a government or an international government organisation or to intimidate the public.

14:42and the act is one of those one of the there's a list of seven or eight but they include what you would typically expect them to be which is you know an act of violence against people an act of against property uh causing you know harm to the nation that sort of thing around effective utility network or some utility networks and the purpose is to pursue an ideological religious or racial cause. Now, the interesting thing about this particular incident is that if explosives are brought into any of those scenarios, you then no longer have to show the intent. So you no longer have to be doing it for the purpose of influencing government and international government organisation or intimidating the public.

15:27What about if it's a military target, though, which a military base is? Yes, it wouldn't make any difference. So if you are using, for example, explosives or acts of violence with explosives attached to them, provided it's for advancing an ideological, political, religious or racial cause, then it fits the definition of terrorism. OK, well, President Trump responded on Sunday to the news of the alleged foiled plot. He praised British law enforcement. The arrest in the UK was fantastic. Working with Britain, it was an amazing job. He said about the suspects. We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort.

16:14And working with the British worked out great. But the farmer that you mentioned earlier on, the local woman who called this into the authorities, said she had to call the police herself. So do we think this came as a surprise or not as a surprise to the intelligence services? There is some confusion about this, isn't there? Yes, look, I can't speak to what the intelligence services know or don't know, and I can't speak to what President Trump knows or doesn't know. What I would say is that a member of the public coming across something happening doesn't become mutually exclusive of the fact that there might well be some sort of intelligence operation also being conducted in and around the area or in and around individuals who might be planning to attack military installations.

16:58So I don't think, you know, those two things need to be conflated at all. what I did see from the media reporting and that is the only source that I have to work from much as everybody else is a very very rapid response from policing and from the other emergency services and developing this into a major incident which is what we declare in the UK when something happens that's likely to draw on lots and lots of different resources to keep people safe

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18:19The five men arrested on suspicion of terror offences near RAF Fairford yesterday are released on bail. I can confirm that following extensive interviews and inquiries, the five men who were arrested are being released on police bail this afternoon. To be very clear, this does not mean that the investigation is over. They are subject to stringent conditions on their movement and contact with others. They absolutely remain under investigation as we explore multiple lines of inquiry. Well, Nick, as we're talking late Monday, we've heard that the five suspects have been released on bail. Our colleague, Frank Gardner, BBC security correspondent regular on this show, has written up and down the country the word what is probably being mouthed in incredulity.

19:13What do you make of this releasing of them on bail? So I think it's dangerous to start speculating on what these things could have been. But I think had there been an incident as has been portrayed in the last few days, it is unlikely that we would be seeing people released on bail at this time. I think that's probably the safest factual thing that I can say. And I think if you take that as, you know, correct, then I think you're into the realms of speculating about what has possibly happened. and my best guess would be that actually there were people there who were in the process of committing other offences that were not terrorist offences and that would explain why they'll have been released on bail because in the UK normal offences you're only allowed to keep people in custody generally for up to 24 hours terrorist offences is up to 48 hours and therefore if there isn't a suspicion of them having committed terrorist defences and there isn't an investigation into terrorist defences, the most likely judicial outcome would be for them to be released on bail while everything else is sorted out.

20:23But from your experience policing these kinds of investigations, would the fact that they have been released on bail suggest that they are not an imminent present threat or is it much more complex than that? No, I don't think it is much more complex than that. I think if there was a threat, they wouldn't be released on bail. They'd have found every opportunity possible to charge them and get them remanded in custody, which is the expression that we use for keeping people in custody between the point of being charged and the point of being able to appear in court. I'm surprised if they released them, I wouldn't have done that.

20:56Look, they've been very good. They worked with us very closely. We know everything about them. We would not have released them. So you said might be, Iran might be? Can you elaborate on that? Well, I'd rather not. I mean, I know the answer. I can be very specific, but I'd rather not say it. But I would not have released them. Well, the police have said they're keeping an open mind as to whether there is a wider geopolitical context to all of this. They say they're considering it from every angle, including whether or not the incident could have been committed by proxies working for a foreign state.

21:32What does all that mean? People in your realm of security work. Who are the possible people who could be behind such an attempted attack? So if we park this particular scenario, we think about the other things that have happened in the United Kingdom over the last decade or so. We have seen the Russian state deploy their own agents onto our streets with Novichok nerve agent in an attempt to kill a Russian dissident. We have seen Russian-sponsored proxies setting fire to warehouses that contain aid or military assets for the Ukrainian army. What does that mean exactly, proxies, Nick? It means people acting on behalf of the Russian state.

22:20The important caveat around that is sometimes they don't know that that's who they're acting on behalf of. Certainly that particular incident, I think it's beyond doubt that they knew who they were acting on behalf of. although connected to somebody from the Wagner Group, which is a mercenary organisation very closely connected to the Russian state. But it basically means getting somebody else to do your dirty work for you on the streets of London. And the sorts of people being recruited are petty criminals, generally speaking. They're not sophisticated individuals. They're petty criminals who are perhaps being paid a little bit of money to go and commit a crime somewhere.

22:53But that crime has a magnitude of importance that is far greater than it might appear on the surface. Okay, well, the Iranian embassy in London has said that it categorically rejects any speculation linking the country to this incident. Where does all of that leave us? I think it leads us in having to trust our policing and intelligence agencies to be as excellent as they are. I think the fact that counterterrorism policing are leading the investigation, as I say, it opens up then collaborative opportunities with the intelligence agencies. And together, they should be able to get a firm picture of what has happened, what this is about, whether it is a benign incident, whether it is a non-terrorist criminal incident or whether it's a criminal incident or something even more sinister orchestrated by a state that is hostile towards us and our allies.

23:48I think it could be any of those things at the moment. And I think we have to trust those agencies to get on with it and investigate and come up with the answers. And to be honest with you, we may never know the answer publicly. A lot of this really important work that is done and the information that is found out in these investigations doesn't and doesn't need to be broken out to the public. Well, the five individuals who've been arrested and then were then bailed, they've been described by the police as British nationals, all of them. So is there anything we can glean from that as to the possibility of any foreign intervention?

24:26Doesn't this suggest that there isn't any? I think the issue of nationality has been brought forward in recent years following the murders of three little girls in Southport, which is a town in the United Kingdom, where an atrocious murder took place a few years ago. And it caused widespread disorder on the streets because assumptions were made about the nationality of the individual concerned, and it caused rioting based on that. And the police have now become much more forward-leaning in declaring the nationalities of those involved in controversial offences, or offences that might upset and disturb the public.

25:05So I think that's the main thing you can read from that declaration, is it's all part about reassuring the public that this may not have anything associated with asylum or immigration, which is, for our United States listeners, is an issue that's vexing our communities at the moment. We're trying to work our way through what does this country stand for and what's it need going forward. I think a really important fact, though, is that across time in the United Kingdom, 75 % of those who commit terrorist offences are British nationals. There isn't this sort of presumption that, you know, foreign nationals have been smuggled into the United Kingdom to commit terrorist offences.

25:48That's just not what's happening. So I think the declaration is really about just trying to maintain the calm within society because we are at a particularly challenging time in that public debate about immigration at the moment. The UK tried to stay out of the Iran war, Nick. In the first few days, it wouldn't let the United States use its bases for offensive operations against Iran. But then the previous prime minister, Keir Starmer, let the United States use British bases for so-called defensive actions. Then in July, Iran's foreign ministry said the UK was an accomplice in the US war. If Iran did somehow turn out to be involved in a plot against a US air force base like this, and let's be clear, that's pure speculation at this point.

26:40could it prove that there's a price to pay for being an American ally? So look, I think the best thing about being a cop is you get to pick up the mess that other people leave. And so I think the most I would say about that is if there are problems generated by the decisions that we take as a nation in defence of ourselves or our allies, the police and our intelligence services will always be there to do their duty and to resolve any problems that might fall out of that. I think that's the safest answer to that question.

27:15because to suggest that events happening overseas in any way, shape or form justify acts of violence inside our borders would be completely wrong and sometimes, you know, those sort of commentaries can become misinterpreted. I think any violence politically, ideologically, racially, religiously driven is fundamentally wrong And that's what myself and my colleagues have spent most of our lives trying to stop from happening.

27:49Nick, thanks so much for joining us. You're welcome.

27:58That was Nick Oldworth, former UK National Coordinator in counterterrorism policing. On Monday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared on Fox News, where he repeated Donald Trump's concerns about the suspects being released on bail. He had this to say. I have to be careful. There's some things I cannot say on the air for a lot of different reasons. Suffice it to say that what happened, what almost happened, what could have happened in the U.K. over the weekend is a very serious situation. It's one that clearly involves the hands of a foreign actor. And that's it for the Global Story for today.

28:35A reminder that here on the Global Story, we go deep into one story every day. And if you want to catch up on the latest news from around the world, then look for our sister show, the Global News Podcast, wherever you get your podcasts. Our show today was produced by Aaron Keller, Fari McKenzie, Lucy Paul, and Valerio Esposito. It was mixed by Travis Evans. Our digital producer was Charlie Firth. Our studio manager was Johnny Hall. Our executive producer was James Shield. Our senior news editor is China Collins. And I'm Tristan Redman. We'll be back again tomorrow. See you then. Cheerio.