Is the US falling out of love with Israel?

12:47Asma:Yeah, and it deteriorated and it has been deteriorating since then. You know, I mentioned that I did a story about the relationship and attitudes towards Israel in U.S. public opinion in 2021, looking at how the violence in Gaza, because there was also violence in Gaza around that time point, was marking a shift in the American political debate around Israel.

13:07Jon Donnison:So it's in that context then that October 7th happens and then the Gaza intervention. In some ways, though, it's counterintuitive, isn't it? Because October 7th was a hugely traumatic moment for Israel and people in the United States who had been longtime supporters of Israel rallied around Israel in support, didn't they? But did that sentiment not last?

13:32Asma:What I can say, Tristan, is that as the war continued in Gaza and as the death toll in Gaza grew, we saw public opinion amongst Americans move away, it appears, from Israel. And this is not just one poll. You can look at survey after survey from reputable polling outfits that have been tracking this attitude over time. So they have some metric of comparison. in a place like, say, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs or Gallup or the Pew Research Center. And to give you a sense of the scope of what we've begun to see, a Pew poll from March of this year found that six in 10 Americans have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Israel that was up seven percentage points since last year and nearly 20 points since 2022.

14:28Asma:to. So a real dramatic difference over the last couple of years, it appears.

14:32Jon Donnison:And do we have any sense from those numbers, the division between Republicans and Democrats in that level of support, in that decline of support for Israel?

14:42Asma:There's definitely a partisan divide. If you look at, you know, this Pew poll that I cite or other polls as well that have looked at Democratic and Republican attitudes, you'll see that more voters who identify as Democrat or Democratic-leaning do seem to have an unfavorable view of Israel. When you look at Republicans, a majority of Republicans do continue to have a more favorable view of Israel, though I will say some of the polling suggests that unfavorable attitudes in the last year have ticked up amongst Republicans, particularly among younger Republicans. All right.

15:20Jon Donnison:So it would seem that the wavering on Israel is primarily happening on the Democratic side. But there are a lot of prominent Republicans as well, like Tucker Carlson, who are also expressing some wavering support on Israel. So what's going on in the Republican camp?

15:36Asma:The most recent war that the United States conducted with Israel and Iran, but also you could argue even last year's 12-day war, have exposed some cracks in the traditional unquestioning support for Israel that we had amongst Republicans. Particularly, it appears, amongst some younger Republicans. But you also, you mentioned popular podcasting personalities like Tucker Carlson or Megyn Kelly. I do think that even I, as I look back, I'm like, I'm pro-Israel. I say I'm pro-Israel. And I've been asking myself lately, like, how, like, why exactly am I pro-Israel? We've seen also a couple of Republican lawmakers be outspoken about this as well.

16:15Asma:I think this, Tristan, seems to tie back more to their hesitancy about U.S. intervention in foreign wars. We know that there is a part of the Republican base that is extremely skeptical of U.S. intervention abroad. and they feel the United States, in their view, was dragged into this recent war with Iran and that they don't think that that was to the benefit of the United States. You know, I will say, I think the cracks right now that we're seeing in the Republican Party, while maybe small, and yes, there is still substantial evangelical support amongst Republicans for Israel and amongst other Republicans as well, these cracks do appear to be real.

16:58Asma:because, look, politicians, they are political operatives, and this is all happening in the context of an upcoming midterm election cycle here in the United States. And so they've made the calculation that it's OK to be critical of Israel in public to some degree, as we've heard from President Trump and J.D. Vance recently. But still, the majority opinion, as we've seen in public opinion surveys, but also the majority opinion amongst Republicans on Capitol Hill is to continue the traditional support we have seen from the United States towards Israel.

17:36Jon Donnison:Okay, well, I mean, that's the view from D.C. But as you all know, friends, we do America and the world. We do indeed. We have called up the BBC's John Donison, correspondent in Jerusalem, to find out how all of this looks from Israel.

17:54Tristan:So my name is John Donison. I'm a correspondent based in Jerusalem at the moment. I used to be based here permanently for four years, and I've been coming back to Jerusalem periodically since the war in Gaza started.

18:09Asma:So John, presumably you've seen how public opinion may or may not have shifted in Israel over the years. And the question on my mind is whether Israelis are aware that attitudes about Israel in the United States, presumably their closest ally, have soured so much in the last couple of years?

18:27Tristan:I think they are aware because I think the Israeli media scrutinizes the relationship with the United States, which, as you say, is their most important ally very, very closely. So the polls that you would have seen in the U.S. have also been reported here. So they're aware of that. And certainly in recent weeks, there's been a lot of coverage about how Israel's relationship with America is under strain.

18:55Asma:John, what do attitudes look like in Israel towards the United States at this moment? I mean, I used to cover the White House, and the only time I've been to Israel has been on one of these presidential junkets. And so there's lots of signage up that shows how close the U.S. and Israel are as allies. I don't know that that signage is regularly shown around town, but there was a sense of warmth. What are you seeing now?

19:17Tristan:Well, look, I don't want to overplay this because I do think Israel remains America's most important ally in the Middle East. A huge amount of money, a huge amount of weapons goes from the United States to Israel. But when you look at some of the polling just in the last few weeks, and I know we shouldn't rely too much on an individual poll, but there was one on Channel 12 television here this week saying 71 % of Israelis don't trust President Trump to look out for them in the Iran deal. and just 11 % believe that Israel won that war. And those figures, that 71 % figure, was down 10 % apparently on the same question when it was asked just a week before.

20:02Tristan:So the Iran conflict has really put a lot of political pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu. He has elections coming up in a few months' time. He's doing badly in the polls. and people are saying, look, you got us into this war and the war aims that you set out to achieve haven't been achieved. And at the same time, you've put a strain on this relationship with the United States, which is so important for Israel.

20:30Jon Donnison:John, we have to be careful about a poll taken in isolation, but there is a little bit more urgency around polling numbers in an election year. It's an election year in the United States with the midterms, but also in Israel, there's a general election later this year. how might the evolving sentiment around Israel and the United States influence that election in Israel?

20:51Tristan:It's interesting because in the past, Prime Minister Netanyahu has used his close relationship with President Trump as an electoral asset, saying, you know, only he has this strong relationship with the most powerful man in the world. This time, though, I think there's going to be a bit of a shift. hearing it reported here that his campaign team are stepping back from that approach. And they're going to say, look, Prime Minister Netanyahu is the only potential prime minister strong enough to stand up to President Trump. So that's a subtle but quite important shift. So in the past, when we've had elections, we've seen big posters of Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump up on billboards around Israel.

21:37Tristan:I'm not sure we're going to see that this time.

21:39Asma:Can you extrapolate a little bit on how the deal we've seen announced here by the United States and Iran to try to end the war has complicated that electoral dynamic for Netanyahu?

21:51Tristan:Well, it's complicated it because there's no doubt Israel was told about this deal. They were not consulted. President Trump clearly really wanted this deal to go ahead. Prime Minister Netanyahu and plenty of Israelis don't think there should have been a ceasefire yet with Iran, and they certainly don't think there should have been a ceasefire in Lebanon. Now, of course, the Iranians have insisted that Lebanon, where Israel has been clashing with Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group, Israel has occupied a large chunk of southern Lebanon. The Iranians have insisted that has to be part of any ceasefire deal.

22:31Tristan:And there was a risk right up until the weekend, really, and frankly, the risk is still there, that the fighting in southern Lebanon could derail the whole Iran deal. So essentially, the Americans over the past week have been saying to the Israelis, look, you need to rein it in in southern Lebanon because they didn't want that to derail the deal. So Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a difficult spot because he doesn't want to upset President Trump any more than he already has. But at the same time, pulling out those forces from southern Lebanon would be perceived by many here as a sign of weakness.

23:03Asma:Would it be politically unpopular, you're saying, John, at this point?

23:05Tristan:It would be politically unpopular to do that. Yeah.

23:07Jon Donnison:Yeah. So there's a political tightrope he's walking. But at the same time, it looks like there's also a security tightrope that he's walking, because on the one hand, he has one security imperative, which is, he says, to protect Israel from a security threat from Lebanon, from Hezbollah. But then there is also another security imperative, which is to maintain good relations with the United States, which is a strong military backer. That's a difficult choice to have to make, isn't it, for Benjamin Netanyahu? What's the main priority there?

23:38Tristan:Well, I think the main priority is to walk that tightrope and certainly to keep relations good with America. At the same time, I just do not think the Israelis are going to pull out of southern Lebanon at the moment, not just months before an election. So I think we're going to get to a sort of those forces will remain there and they will be under pressure not to see the situation there escalate. But at the same time, while you have Israeli troops occupying Lebanese territory, it's very easy to see flare-ups. They could quickly escalate. And obviously, we've got 60 days to negotiate the rest of this Iran deal.

24:23Tristan:That's not a lot of time. I still think there's plenty that could go wrong.

24:27Asma:John, beyond the halls of power in Israel, beyond, say, the Netanyahu government, I'm curious how the United States and how President Trump are viewed broadly. You know, we've heard Trump and his team consistently say that they have done more for Israel than anybody else would have. You've heard them allude to the fact that, in their view, Israel would have been destroyed without their support. And as you said yourself, John, I mean, there's a lot that Trump has done over the years in terms of his relationship with Netanyahu, but also I would say towards the nation of Israel. In his first term, he moved the U.S.

25:00Asma:embassy to Jerusalem. He recognized the Golan Heights is Israeli territory. He's lifted sanctions on West Bank settlers. And so I am curious, is Donald Trump himself still popular? Do you have a sense of how he's viewed beyond just, let's say, the leadership in Israel?

25:15Tristan:Yeah. And it's important to say that those polls I mentioned earlier, that 71%, that was, didn't trust President Trump to look out for them in the Iran deal. So it's not talking about the broader views of President Trump. And I do think generally, the majority of Israelis regard President Trump as good for Israel. Certainly, they think he's better for Israel than his predecessor, Joe Biden, or before that, Barack Obama. President Trump is also a polarizing figure in Israel, like he is everywhere around the world. So I think it's quite difficult to kind of generalize too much about, you know, how Israel

25:53Jon Donnison:feels about President Trump, I guess. Is this a particularly perilous moment for Benjamin Netanyahu, John?

25:59Tristan:Yeah, it is. It is because the majority view in Israel is that the war in Iran has not worked out as planned. And that is going to be used in the upcoming elections against him. He's facing criticism, not just from the opposition, but from members of his own cabinet about how this has been handled. And at the moment, the polls show he's losing support. He would lose an election, I think, if one was held tomorrow. And then at the same time, you know, he's also facing corruption charges in Israel. He's on trial for that at the moment, charges that he denies. So there's a lot at stake for him at the moment.

26:42Asma:Well, John, thank you for joining us.

26:44Jon Donnison:John, thanks so much. It's a pleasure.

26:50Jon Donnison:That was the BBC's John Donison speaking to us from Jerusalem. And before that, you heard our own Asma Khaled. And that's it from us for today. As you know, on The Global Story, we bring you one story in depth where the world and America meet. For the very latest news headlines, check out our sister pod, the Ronaldinho to our Ronaldo, the barbecue sauce to our brisket, the Global News Pod, wherever you listen. Our email, as always, theglobalstory at bbc.com. Don't be strangers. Today's episode was produced by Viv Jones. It was edited by Bridget Harney. Our studio manager was Ricardo McCarthy. Our digital producers are Charlie Firth and Matt Pintus.

27:35Jon Donnison:Our senior news editor is China Collins, and I'm Tristan Redman. Thanks so much for listening. We'll be back again tomorrow. Cheerio.